Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Firebringer]

i am gonna layout my thoughts of recent in greater detail so people can understand where my mind is going.

Elements i think could be town, he could have posted that post about his meta and was worried about being modkilled because he was mod killed for claiming he did a trust tell before, which makes me a bit nervous. He still seems scum to me but now i can envision this game FMPOV that he is town. Problem with him to me is i think he still seems scummy to me but then Isis says town but is not confident in it (at least i don't think she is)

I think Deimos is still likely scum but weaker in it than Elements, Deimos reads this game seem like scum readsd, his positions seem like things scum would do to get mislynches going. He has been pretty wrong on a lot of players (doesnt mean scum but i kind of think town would have more reason to see townieness in some posts he just claimed "ohh yeh this is scum". Also his analysis is lot of times backwards than mine. He will take a view that is very unorthodox to most. Again doesn't mean scum but it always piques my interest when i see people analyzing stuff and coming to the opposite conclusions i get to. My self doubt, plus HEM telling me i am wrong, plus I am almost certain Elements is not teammates with Deimos. Plus the other scum don't look like his teammates. Makes me want to push this read aside.

Looker is a terrible town player. He is playing terrible here. Lynching him is probably waste of everyones time.
Isis...I said im not going to doubt myself so i wont.
HEM is def town. He tunneled Alisae just like his town self would.

To me this game has to be elements/deimos but i keep finding dozens of reasons why that is wrong.

[Firebringer]

Sorry if i am wrong ELements
VOTE: Elements

[Deimos27]

I'm finding how the Cycle Men wagon broke down and rebuilt between VC 1.23 and VC 1.27 a fascinating re-read.

Spoiler:

Votecount 1.23

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (6)	NorwegianboyEE (155), Deimos27 (588), Isis (614), Elements (659), Green Crayons (720), Firebringer (721)
Firebringer (3)	Cycle Men (152), votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Alisae (647)
Elements (1)	humaneatingmonkey (663)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Somewhere between this vc, and Norwee's next post where he moves his vote onto HEM, scum decided to abandon the Cycle lynch.

since no one is gonna hammer cycle men.

u all have to live with that:

VOTE: Votato

FB initiates the downfall of the Cycle wagon, after having kept his vote there for 4.5 hours. This felt a little premature at the time, and it still does, since some players hadn't posted yet and there was still plenty chance for a Cycle lynch to be locked in (as Alisae confirmed thereafter). But 4.5h isn't that short an amount of time either, and FB was promoting a hammer in between, which suggests this wasn't a pre-planned scum!FB fakehammer into unvote (I'd expect that to be more hasty, to avoid an unplanned hammer). The takeaway is that if scum!FB = True, this was probably the moment when their team decided to stop bussing Cycle. It would explain the sudden timing.

VOTE: fire
for now mostly to try to make EoD more interesting

Alisae contributes to Fire wagon, putting it at 4 votes with 3 town and 1 scum (all these players' alignments are known!)

VOTE: fire
now we got twoooo wagons

Elements joins in, swapping out Cycle as leading wagon for Fire. This supports the idea that Fire and Elements can't be scumbuddies because even if this is scum!Elements moving momentum away from the Cycle wagon it's pretty counterproductive to just be swapping it out for scum!FB. If town!FB and scum!Elements, this would be the moment where scum decided against a Cycle lynch, trying to swap it out for a Firebringer lynch instead, capitalizing on the outwards momentum created by FB and Alisae.

Monkey vote Norwee or Cycle Men
GC vote Norwee, you know you want to
Isis vote Norwee

VOTE: Norwee
This wagon is super possible people just need to use their fucking votes

VOTE: NorwEE

Let's go.

Slightly town-AI for HEM. If scum decided against bussing Cycle, it's counterproductive to swap into bussing Norwee.

but he's cute!!!

this doesn't even sort monkey because monkey is town no matter what norwee is

you guys are lame
VOTE: Norwee

Isis's positioning is anti- Norwee lynch so she can easily stay off that wagon without catching any flack. Switching onto Norwee contrary to the scumteam's apparent strategy and contrary to her positioning in the game makes limited sense for a bussing meta and not much sense at all for this gamestate. Probably slightly town-AI.

Votecount 1.25

Target	Wagon
Firebringer (4)	Cycle Men (152), votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813), Elements (854)
NorwegianboyEE (4)	Looker (456), Alisae (876), humaneatingmonkey (879), Isis (883)
Cycle Men (3)	NorwegianboyEE (155), Deimos27 (588), Green Crayons (720)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

VOTE: humaneatingmonkey
im keeping this here for the day

For some reason Cycle opts to sap momentum from the FB wagon, even though it's the only one competing with him and Norwee, to vote HEM instead. This is a very weird play if FB is town. I was initially quite skeptical of the possibility of all top three wagons being scum (as would be the case with scum!FB), but seeing as the FB wagon was town-driven with votato and ABR (and probably Elements too in the worlds where this is scum!FB), that becomes plausible.

VOTE: Cycle Men

Okay bro

VOTE: Cycle Men

Monkey, voting because hard to sort is just bad reasoning. If you have scumreads, push them.
I mean, i thought you scumread me. But you just find me hard to sort? Ok?

At this point Norwee subtly tries to dissuade HEM from voting himself or Cycle. We know that at this point at the latest scum decided against Cycle lynch:

VOTE: Humaneatingmonkey

Norwee joins Cycle on HEM. Again, why won't these players touch FB although it's the only wagon competing with Cycle/Norwee?
This is +scum FB and +town HEM.

Votecount 1.27

Target	Wagon
Cycle Men (4)	Deimos27 (588), Green Crayons (720), humaneatingmonkey (902), Isis (904)
Firebringer (3)	votato (548), Albert B. Rampage (813), Elements (854)
NorwegianboyEE (2)	Looker (456), Alisae (876)
humaneatingmonkey (2)	Cycle Men (897), NorwegianboyEE (916)
votato (1)	Firebringer (840)
Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-08 06:42:59).

Basically, this progression seems to implicate scum!FB or scum!Elements most strongly, out of which I think FB makes more sense because of Cycle and Norwee piling onto a vanity HEM wagon and thereby seemingly unnecessarily diverting momentum from FB.

I think I might have hit upon something here. Will put aside time tomorrow to continue my reading.

[Deimos27]

i am gonna layout my thoughts of recent in greater detail so people can understand where my mind is going.

Elements i think could be town, he could have posted that post about his meta and was worried about being modkilled because he was mod killed for claiming he did a trust tell before, which makes me a bit nervous. He still seems scum to me but now i can envision this game FMPOV that he is town. Problem with him to me is i think he still seems scummy to me but then Isis says town but is not confident in it (at least i don't think she is)

What I'm getting from the direction of your mind here is that you have a lot of reasons why Elements might be town, but he "seems scummy" and "Isis says town" with insufficient confidence. Needless to say, I'm not exactly inspired to be voting with you here.

[Firebringer]

confident firebringer isn't with u right now. This is uncertain fire.

[northsidegal]

Votecount 7.1

Target	Wagon
humaneatingmonkey (1)	Elements (3320)
Firebringer (1)	Looker (3322)
Elements (1)	Firebringer (3326)
Not Voting (4)	humaneatingmonkey, Deimos27, Green Crayons, Isis

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch. The Day 7 deadline is in (expired on 2020-05-29 17:42:59).

[Elements]

VOTE: fire

[Firebringer]

we can lynch me if elements is town

[humaneatingmonkey]

Hi, I'm here. I'm casually reading the thread and I haven't started the Isis case. I've been really busy.

I'm just here to say that Elements didn't always have this "I'm OMGUS-ing and this is what I do as town" mentality in this game. I've covered some of these behavior in my re-read. Elements feels like he has always received coaching, and he flails often.

See:

Spoiler: The Back & Forth

VOTE: Elements

VOTE: Elements

took you long enough, why so hesitant?

What?

Oh, I thought I was voting you before voting Cycle Men.

You've been voting votata most of the game with me, that's the first time you've voted me. why you not keeping track of your vote?

This interests you why?

so I can discredit your case against me

why are the merits of my case contingent on whether or not i keep track of my votes? walk me through here.

It's not your not keeping track of your vote, it's that you were voting the same as me despite thinking I'm scum and not changing your vote until I did

did you vote cycle men as a reaction test?

I'm 100% sure Elements is scum

did you vote cycle men as a reaction test?

no, but it acted as one because you changed your vote

did you vote cycle men as a reaction test?

no, but it acted as one because you changed your vote

scrap that
no it was not a reaction test

I'm 100% sure Elements is scum

what do you think about votata?

So where did it bring you?

Votata was my scumread going in the day then after I reconciled that his POV could make sense, I dropped it. I have not if he is scum or he is town, and I don't think he's my day 1 lynch.

What's your read on me right now?

Mislead town

but it's a lean not a strong read

You said it was a reaction test, and then not a reaction test, so my understanding is your vote makes you think you got an alignment indicative read on me.

What is it?

Also, who do you think is misleading me?

Also, who do you think is misleading me?

Maybe blinded is a better way of putting it. I think you're misleading yourself

You said it was a reaction test, and then not a reaction test, so my understanding is your vote makes you think you got an alignment indicative read on me.

What is it?

I don't think you 100% think I'm scum. Did my change of vote increase how scummy you think I am?

I don't think you 100% think I'm scum. Did my change of vote increase how scummy you think I am?

Yes, especially since your vote reason was his entrance which was super non-AI. If Cycle Men is town here, you're definitely just wanting to hop on that wagon. But since you don't understand the town reasons to join the wagon, you just make up your own.

if you do that it's just going to be an inevitable cycle men lynch. Everyone wants a lynch and cycle men has the most so the people on it are most likely just gonna leave their votes there adn wait for everyone to panic move onto him.
I'm happy for a cycle or human lynch but i'd prefer the latter
VOTE: human

scrap that, human is pretty locktown for me now
VOTE: cycle

scrap that, human is pretty locktown for me now

this swing happened because i've just looked through the votecounts and human has been the only one to vote me so far this game. If he were scum I'd have expected him to get his buddies to at least push me as I've so lynchable. that hasn't happened even slightly so human = town

scrap that, human is pretty locktown for me now

this swing happened because i've just looked through the votecounts and human has been the only one to vote me so far this game. If he were scum I'd have expected him to get his buddies to at least push me as I've so lynchable. that hasn't happened even slightly so human = town

what
you've been considered a scumread by multiple people for a long time this game

but no one has voted me or rlly pushed for my lynch except human.

[humaneatingmonkey]

#997 - #1010 shows discernment for who is scum or town based on his own reads, and not just who votes for him. this is not the Elements that we are seeing here. Either he abruptly changed his personality overnight, or he has been receiving coaching. This level of inconsistency is just another evidence of scum!Elements for me.

[Firebringer]

he could be town disillusioned with my read on him. I don't know why i bother argue why he is town though.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Maybe if he flips scum, y'all can give me a solid and lynch Isis. If she flips town, you can lynch me. I don't expect you to agree, but I'm gonna come back with a case anyway.

[humaneatingmonkey]

town disillusioned with my read on him

he doesn't have real reads.

[Firebringer]

if elements flips scum we can revisit isis.

[humaneatingmonkey]

if elements flips scum we can revisit isis.

Yes thank you oh my god

[humaneatingmonkey]

But also this feels like a trap if it's Isis+Firebringer. Firebringer is the weakest townread I had when I was re-reading.

but whatever

[humaneatingmonkey]

you know what

[humaneatingmonkey]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/yw-PFWJDObI?t=101[/youtube]

[humaneatingmonkey]

I know what I have to do but I don't know if I have the strength to do it

[Firebringer]

well wouldn't u lynch scum either way? if elements is town we just lynch me.
if elements is scum then we still look at isis tomorrow.

I actually kind of believe Isis/elements is a plausibility.

[humaneatingmonkey]

Okay then I don't have to do what I know I have to do

[Elements]

you two know you have a PT for this sort of thing?

[Firebringer]

you think its us two.......

[Firebringer]

u agree with Looker?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!

[Firebringer]

ELEMENTS I DONT BELIEVE FOR A MINUTE YOU THINK WE ARE TEAMMATES WHO DO U THINK IS GOING TO BUY THAT?!?!