Mini Normal 2135 (Endgame)

[Persivul]

I'm hesitant in allowing this to guide me too much

, but Persivuls play here makes no sense as scum.
Like, it would be superbly weird.
1. Make a claim-gambit
->
2. claim a result that puts you right next to the no-lynch/lynch -line but stand by your claims
->
3. ADD IN A ONE-SHOT CAVEAT AFTER MOVING N2 AND DOING THE KILL FOR THE SCUMTEAM (???), still considering their target would've been someone that simply doesn't fit their claim.
->
4. Get easily guiltied by all the potential Trackers/Followers/Watchers etc.

Why hesitant to allow that to guide you? You're assessing motivations. That's exactly what mafia town play is.

[Persivul]

I believe mavs is a miller, the rolecop claim is slightly more up in the air, but the argument someone made that it would be far easier for scum to sit back and mislynch the miller today then claim rolecop and clear them makes enough sense to me

for now

.

This isn't a big deal and is more a musing to myself, but leaving an out like that - I'm going to think of it as the

for now

tell in the future.

[Persivul]

For now... meaning until he tracks you that night you mean?

Very nice of you to point out popo planned to track you N2.

I was hoping one of you would say that. He didn't reference that in his explanation. He said that the Panda flip is what made him reevaluate, and the

for now

comment came before the Panda flip.

[Persivul]

You mean a PR hid their role from you!? Shock horror!

Dafuq?

I don't think I've ever seen someone cheerlead for their scum buddy so flagrantly. I guess that will be your defense.

[Persivul]

Una, George...less than a day to go.

[Persivul]

One of the reasons why I'm currently just delaying my vote is because you and a few others are throwing around things such as this "obviously wrong".
But we do agree on the fact that the Ruby-slot is quite likely just town.
Which is why I want them to be replaced before the day ends so that they can dedicate the nightphase for reading the game.
But call that apathy, being "obviously wrong" or just scummy, I really do not care.

Do what you like, but:
- at this point it's doubtful that a replacement is going to come in and make a meaningful catchup before deadline
- you don't need to hear what they say to make your own decision

This situation isn't complex.

1. popo was town reading me.
2. Panda's lynch fucked with his reads. He claims he decided to track me in order to get a clear on me, despite the fact that he COULDN'T get a clear on me. He could only get a guilty.
3. Despite having just claimed 1X, I was the scum who made the kill.

Either you believe that or you don't. It's pretty simple.

[Persivul]

No wait, this isn't straightforward either.
Persivul / mavs / George is yet another variation.

So I’ve been trying to bus George since day 1? Oh, okay. Cool

So I'm scum who saved you on D2 for no reason?

Oh, okay. Cool.

[Persivul]

persi saying he saved mavs d2 is misrepresenting the situation. when persi claimed there were 3 votes out all on different people.

I've previously shown that at least 5 people said that mavs would be lynched D2.

[Persivul]

The supposed reason that I fakeclaimed to save him is that I'd get some town cred when he flipped. Yet, I'm supposedly scum, and he hasn't been flipped yet.

[Persivul]

The supposed reason that

I fakeclaimed to save him

is that I'd get some town cred when he flipped. Yet, I'm supposedly scum, and he hasn't been flipped yet.

In before prana quotes this and says this is an admission that I fakeclaimed to save him.

[Persivul]

Not Voting(2):UnaBombaH;GeorgeBailey;

[Persivul]

You do realize that BOTH me and George need to vote for there to be a lynch at this time?

Yes. Mod should have frozen deadline until a replacement was found. But that has nothing to do with your lack of vote.

[Persivul]

My votes is based mainly on mavs' play today

Interesting. How does mavs' play lead to a vote on me?

[Persivul]

What else do you want popopopo to do when they claim to have a guilty on Persivul?

Try to solve the rest of the game, as I've been doing.

[Persivul]

For all of Una's analysis showing that I wouldn't play as I have as scum, he still manages to find reasons to vote me.

[Persivul]

If we were to forget about the reads completely for a moment

See what I mean?

This is mafia. Why would you forget about reads?

[Persivul]

Una wants to have correct reads, but also a mechanical reason to lynch me.

[Persivul]

Knightmare argues with mechanics, so I answered with mechanics.

This isn't the only instance of it and you know it.

[Persivul]

For all of Una's analysis showing that I wouldn't play as I have as scum, he still manages to find reasons to vote me.

If you are town here, I'd argue your play around your role was close to being optimal

..?
I don't think claiming that 1-shot modifier would've been the right call D2 either, and the WIFOM about your result was always going to be there.

If you are scum, I commend you on your gambit anyway, and only

think it was silly for you to commit the kill last night

considering what you had claimed.

Yet you vote me.

[Persivul]

Why did you go for this path at all?
What is the reasoning?
Why would scum EVER leave a conf.town alive when all the other kills are likely just Vanillas, and we have one 100% absent slot that's almost impossible to read in LyLo?

Because for now he's 100% convinced that George and popo can't be scum together. If George and popo are scum together, they could leave him alive for the win. My pointing this out increases the chance that someone I know for a fact to be town with bad reads gets killed tonight, or if not migghtr get mavs to reevaluate.

[Persivul]

Out of interest in not having a no lynch... I will lynch popo before deadline if I absolutely have to, to go into tomorrow with actual information.

Come on Una, you have to test this.

[Persivul]

And it’s easier to fake game theory than day long bread crumbing.

Wait what? Day long crumbing? Did I check the wrong ISO, or were there only like 3/4 posts before they were claiming?
Not THAT hard to do.

[Persivul]

I also find it harder and harder to look past this post from Tanner.
This post screams "popopo has no reason to scumread Persivul here, unless something happened overnight".
Yet tanner didn't think this fits with popopopo being a Tracker with a guilty?

Yep.

The reasoning he gave for tracking me was that Panda's flip ficked with his reads, so he checked me in order to confirm me, and therefore mavs as well.

But a tracker CAN'T confirm someone who has claimed to be out of shots. It can only provide a guilty, but never a clear. His claimed reasoning is bullshit.

[Persivul]

redpandas flipped fucked my reads

i figured id check persi to confirm him, myself and mavs and form a town bloc

imagine my surprise

Here it is. It's a blatant lie. A tracker couldn't CONFIRM me. It could only get a guilty.

[Persivul]

And when did you claim to be a 1-shot exactly?

Was it after? If so my bad, I'm playing poker rn while I post.

[Persivul]

Right, you can't make it a clear-cut case either, no matter how hard you try.

In what world do I make the kill there?

[Persivul]

Leaving Tanner+George+Prana+Knightmare+"Haven't been around at all"-slot to deal with a 5-player LyLo is gonna be awful.

Why?

By today's flip, either tanner or prana is going to be shown to have read me/popo correctly, and will presumably be town leader.

That's why I think that even with my flip, Tanner could get NK'd over mavs.

[Persivul]

Also note that, without the 1X claim, popo still couldn't confirm me. Scum rolecop is a thing.

[Persivul]

The most interesting development today is prana saying he'd vote popo if needed. I think it's a bluff, but I'm already voting popo, so I can't call it.

[Persivul]

George was on a little over two hours ago and didn't vote, or even post. This was my weakest scum read, but it's solidifying.

[Persivul]

Gamestate:

Popo L-2
Pers L-2

Ruby slot empty.
George active lurking, not voting.

If Una votes popo, prana has pledged to hammer.
If Una votes me, I have pledged to self hammer.

If neither Una nor Geroge vote, hopefully tanner or knight will be online to switch to me so we get a flip.

I'll be here on and off until deadline.

[Persivul]

Holy shit, we actually lynched the scum, and WITHOUT mavs, the one guy who should have been on my side all along.

I don't play games in twilight. I'm exactly what I claimed and went nowhere last night. This is a scum lynch.

Big question now is whether he's really a tracker.

[Persivul]

Oh, and in case you forgot, popopo either GUESSED that George did nothing N1 or they are scum together.

Or...?

[Persivul]

TY

[Persivul]

Going camping and will be gone until Sunday afternoon. Not much has changed for me. I think if we lynch through prana-george-una we probably win. I have tanner and knight as town, don't know yet on puppy but of the little that his predecessors wrote nothing really pinged me.

VOTE: prana

Regarding una, there's an old rule of thumb that if you still have a hard null on someone on D3, they're probably scum. I have a hard null on una and it's D4, so that's not good.

The mavs kill seems somewhat favorable for george, but everything george posts is just so damn scummy.

[Persivul]

My gut is telling me it's Prana/Knight bussing each other, but I'm aware that doesn't make 100% sense, and I'm imagining Persi telling me I'm a fucking idiot.

I just read knight's entire ISO and I have him as town. I'd need to see a case on him. Maybe you can prepare one while I'm gone.

And yeah, a prana/knight team

really

doesn't make sense to me. Do a double ISO. See posts like 317 and 325. Doesn't look like scum distancing to me.

[Persivul]

The thing is, I think this setup is way too low Town power for 3 scum. Maaaybe a Traitor, but I'm still unsure. IC is one confirmed Town, second Miller that gets confirmed is another, but there's a most likely free mislynch on Day 1... This seems too scumsided?

Remember also that for you to town read george, scum need to have a PR.

[Persivul]

Somewhat reasonable, when they could just use a dead player?

[Persivul]

No, I mean mav's kill is good for george, i.e. points to town.

[Persivul]

UNVOTE: prana Still wanna lynch this, just don't want phase to end yet and I'm not sure what the VC is.

[Persivul]

Prana puppy is my guess too

VOTE: PranaDevil

This was an L-1 and wasn't announced.

[Persivul]

I want a record of all the D3 votes.

772 - prana votes knight
773 - pers votes prana
780 - mavs votes riabi
781 - prana votes pers
782 - tanner votes popo
783 - popo votes pers
839 - mavs unvotes
848 - knight votes prana
853 - mavs votes popo
857 - george votes popo
866 - ruby votes george
876 - pers votes popo,

popo at L-1

892 - popo fake claims tracker
893 - george unvotes
900 - knight votes pers
901 - george votes pers,

pers at L-1

905 - knight unvotes pers
908 - mavs unvotes popo
935 - Tanner unvotes
986 - tanner votes popo
1002 - mavs votes pers

pers back to L-1

1031 - george unvotes pers
1033 - pers unvotes popo
1058 - george votes popo
1111 - pers votes popo
1127 - george unvotes popo
1201 - george votes popo
1211 - george unvotes popo
1222 - knight votes popo
1260 - Una votes pers

puts pers back to L-1

1279 - una unvotes pers

both wagons at L-2

1304 - george votes popo

popo at L-1

1307 - prana votes popo

lynch

[Persivul]

George looks better to me looking at that vote record.

[Persivul]

Persi can we talk about your thoughts on Una?

Sure. Like I said, I don't like having a hard null on someone at this stage of the game. Una posts a lot of words but manages to not accomplish much with them.

Your thoughts?

[Persivul]

Ok. I've already said that I think Una/Luca aren't S/S, but I would really appreciate if someone would actually discuss that with me.

Just read their double ISO. I don't see that they can't be scum together. The interactions are weak and don't result in real pushes.

[Persivul]

George looks better to me looking at that vote record.

Really? To me it looks exactly like a scum without a daytalk, considering whether to bus or not.

Doesn't look like that to me. mavs joining my wagon at 1002 was a probably unexpected boon to scum. No one was going to take much blame for lynching me, because to be fair popo did set it up well. I don't see scum!george unvoting there in 1031.

Also something to consider -

when I put you at L-1, both George and Prana were already on you

.
Meaning that even if scum would've wanted to hammer you there, they couldn't do it.
I guess they both realized that, and once George wandered onto popopo once, Prana took the leap.

No. George unvoted in 1211. He had no vote up when you put me at L-1 in 1260. You knew that, and even called george out to vote me:

VOTE: Persivul -

I hope George does the right thing for town and makes sure we at least get a lynch.

[Persivul]

when I put you at L-1, both George and Prana were already on you.
Meaning that even if scum would've wanted to hammer you there, they couldn't do it.

Or, the inactive slot didn't hammer? To suggest the entire scum team was on Persi without hammer seems too desperate.

Seer above. You weren't on me when una voted me.

[Persivul]

D1, Luca mostly attacked George and Una. D2, there was a wagon on Luca before popo replaced in, in which Una (along with mavs) was the main pusher. You think that is easily s/s? (Not being snarky, this is a genuine question)

Yes, I do.
1. It was early in phase. It was clear from D1 that this group isn't into quick lynches, so there was no danger of the lynch actually happening.
2. He named luca-me-you as the scum team a couple posts later. Scum frequently put one of their own in their scum pool.
3. HE THEN COMPLETELY FORGOT ABOUT IT. He moved onto mechanical analysis and stopped pushing the slot at all. He said that's because of the replace out for some reason. Hell, when I'm town and someone I'm pushing replaces out, I'm like a shark that smells blood in the water. But Una just swam away.

[Persivul]

Hi Persi!

Since u're on -- what do u make of una holding his vote on d3?

I think una has played very carefully this whole game, and holding the vote is just one example of that. Personally I tend to play carefully when I'm scum, or a town PR. I already noted that I gave una some leeway because I thought he might be hinting at TPR. But, now he's not, so that leaves scum.

[Persivul]

Tanner, what's your case on knight?

[Persivul]

Did I misread your recap then?

Yes.

[Persivul]

Well...

misread

might be charitable.

[Persivul]

Isn't this all about tomorrow now? I'm assuming we're lynching prana today. Don't think we'll be in lylo tomorrow.

If we get comfortable with me/you/george/knight, then it's a matter of lynching through prana/una/puppy. I'm not saying I'm 100% there, but it's looking better. I feel more comfortable about george now after looking at those votes. Don't like una so far today.

[Persivul]

Especially now that I know I was wrong about Persi vs popopo

You can't really be wrong when you're sitting on a fence.

[Persivul]

So, I'm fully admitting to my fault here, for being an undecisive second-guesser, but I honestly do not see a scum-agenda that could be derived from my actions.

Let me help you with that:
1. Not making enemies. Look at this game. I didn't have much interest in it until prana made me an enemy.
2. Leaving lynch options open.

[Persivul]

I'm at prana --> una --> puppy

VOTE: prana

[Persivul]

^

L-1

[Persivul]

I'm at prana --> una --> puppy

VOTE: prana

Yeah that's why I gave my lynch order. Do you have any specific questions?

[Persivul]

This game gives me anxiety and I'm trying to pretend it doesn't exist but one cannot run forever.

Maybe I'm a sucker for AtE but I lowkey think Puppy is more likely to be scum than Una here...

Who are your top 3? We have one mislynch in hand.

[Persivul]

Something i've noticed going back. The Riabi and Luca slot never interact with each other, (even the replacement) which is really common for scum.

Puppy TRing Prana is kind of odd right now. I don't see scum Town Reading their partner that is definitely going to be lynched today.

Who are you top 3? We have one mislynch in hand.

[Persivul]

Knight, who are your top 3 scum reads?

[Persivul]

Knightmare is still scum.

Yeah, you've pushed him all game.

Just like you pushed me all game.

[Persivul]

I'm undecided between una & puppy for 3rd scum.

To be clear, are you saying your 3 are prana, una, puppy, just not sure how to order una and puppy?

[Persivul]

Just like he was pro-town you all game, and anti-popo... until popo faked a guilty and he fell over himself in his haste to vote you.

My pushing you at least was from a position of already scum-reading you.

Knightmare's... was nothing of the kind, and he blindly accepted his scum read was a tracker, and his town read must be scum.

Yeah, you make a lot out of that. He had a vote on me for literally 5 minutes.

[Persivul]

okay, here's my problem. when i made 1217 and 1219, i firmly believed that (1) popo was scum and (2) that there is no chance we will be able to lynch popo. But it happened. And I've been thinking how. Because unless it is literally Una+Puppy, someone bussed somewhere.

Here's how it happened:
mavs put me to L-1.
george unvoted me, then voted popo. then unvoted, then voted popo. Then unvoted...
knight, who didn't have a vote up, voted popo. That made both wagons L-2, with one slot empty, and una refusing to vote.
Una voted me then unvoted.
George voted popo again.
Prana bused popo to try to get some town cred. Note that he's been using that to try to get town cred. Also note his entrance today - looks like something planned by scum overnight. I've done exactly that as scum in the past.

I think I've given up on my Prana/Knightmare theory. And now this:

Puppy TRing Prana is kind of odd right now. I don't see scum Town Reading their partner that is definitely going to be lynched today.

I don't think I see it either. Puppy is not exactly trying to save Prana, but he's not bussing either. He's right that we've already "made up our minds". So if it's Puppy/Prana, the hell is he doing? And it's making me uneasy. So who is scum!Prana's partner? Una?

So out of prana/uma, prana/puppy, puppy/una, you're finding prana/puppy unlikely. If so, then Una should be the lynch tomorrow, right?

Then I think Una is Town, but I'm somehow getting a feeling that Una is being positioned to be tomorrow's lynch. Maybe I'm buying into Una's AtE. Maybe. But I have a gutfeel that the game is currently being positioned into Prana>Una and I'm not sure I like it?

Yes, the game is currently being positioned into prana-->una. That's well known. It's all out in the open. It's logical - see above.

The puppy slot is always going to be a question because it's had three occupants and barely done a thing. Una has done everything he could to stay on the fence and has been successful, so you're not going to find a smoking gun on him. In such a gamestate, solving by townhunting and POE makes sense. That's what we've done. I've challenged you to scum case knight and you said it's not really there. You challenged me to reevaluate george, and I changed my read on him. It's the best we can do. I think we have a high probability of winning if we stick to the plan. If you, or george, or knight are scum - so be it, good game.

[Persivul]

How many days do we have? We're going to lynch between PD, Una and Puppy then we can try to eliminate pairs and lynch accordingly.

See above. George and tanner don't like prana/puppy, so IMO the lynch order is prana-una-puppy.

[Persivul]

Looks like that's just tanner. Doesn't matter, those three should win it.

[Persivul]

Persivul.

I'm going to flip green.

So... tell town what they should do when that happens.

Lynch Una and Puppy. I've already said that. Multiple times. Like within the last hour.

Why aren't you reading the thread?

[Persivul]

prana, if you want to hear it, sure - there's a chance in my mind that you flip green. An issue I have with you and can't resolve is that you just seem to roll scum all the time. An old white flag game is all I found that you were in for a significant amount of time. I mean, yeah, maybe you haven't played town enough to know not to be a tunneling, misrepping, AtE little shit. Nothing's sure to town.

Oh, and fear of failure motivates some people in this game, but not me. It's only a game. If you flip green I'll sleep just fine. So don't pull that shit on me.

[Persivul]

You can't.

Yes, we can. It's presumably 5:2. We have a mislynch in hand.

You have to be bang on the money... like... the next lynch after me HAS to be correct. Once I'm gone town is in LyLo... "lynch this person then that one" is no longer good enough.

With presumably two scum left, and two lynches lined up...yes, we can do that.

If you're just saying that we might be WRONG, well...no shit, Sherlock. It's a tough game. But don't act like there's not a workable plan in the event that you flip green. There is.

[Persivul]

i just don't think it's gonna be prana. scum would not have hammered like that on D3

Why not? You've never seen scum bus their buddy before?

We have one mislynch and presumably two scum, so instead of just saying not prana, how about giving us your current three lynches?

[Persivul]

prana, if you want to hear it, sure - there's a chance in my mind that you flip green.

An issue I have with you and can't resolve is that you just seem to roll scum all the time.

An old white flag game is all I found that you were in for a significant amount of time. I mean, yeah, maybe you haven't played town enough to know not to be a tunneling, misrepping, AtE little shit. Nothing's sure to town.

Oh, and fear of failure motivates some people in this game, but not me.

It's only a game. If you flip green I'll sleep just fine. So don't pull that shit on me.

that's a contradiction right

No, not at all.

[Persivul]

Persi, it really sounds like u want to lynch prana because u see him rand scum all the time. that's a dumb reason. that just reinforces my belief that u're tunneling and there isn't much of a case here

LOL - wow, this is so bad it's actually funny.

Hey pup, what do you think of prana's argument that my role is negative utility?

[Persivul]

So... can the rest of you start calling Persi out on his anti-town, and shitty playing please? Because if he's town... he's harming it massively... he's only hit scum once so far, and that's solely because they counter claimed him.

Er...earth to douchebag...that's ONE MORE TIME than you've hit scum.

[Persivul]

This game was a lot of work to sub into

Oh bullshit, you haven't read the game. You point to a single vote, from the end of yesterday, to proclaim prana town.

prana --> puppy --> una

@Tanner - popo laid the groundwork for the fakeclaim all of yesterday. It's clear it was planned beforehand. This scum team does gambits. scum!puppy coming in and hard town reading prana could easily be just another gambit.

[Persivul]

I subbed into a lurkbait Day 4, I get it, but I read D3 and D1 and half of D2, and i think i can say that you're the one tunneling here not me

If Prana flips green I don't want to be the one to talk everyone down from losing the game, and if you're going to be the one to tunnel I'm right to be a little mad about it

So try to convince people by making a full case that prana is town.

Scum don't bus like that

is about all you've said so far, and that doesn't seem to be convincing anyone.

[Persivul]

Why did scum kill mavs btw?

That's part of the reason I moved George to town. After the popo flip me and mavs are both pretty close to conftown. The biggest difference between us that I could see was our George reads.

[Persivul]

Persivul is literally stating that ZERO scum bussed popo.

WTF? That's a blatant lie. Why would you expect me to work with you when you misrep me like that?

[Persivul]

At least this has someone from the popo lynch on it.

DUDE - YOU WERE ON THE POPO LYNCH.

[Persivul]

Has anyone else pushed on scum!George today, than me?

Like REALLY been enthusiastic about it?

Are you not reading the game?

[Persivul]

It's kind of funny that all three of my scum pool are in here just stirring the pot and trying to make people question themselves.

[Persivul]

Has anyone else pushed on scum!George today, than me?

+

Like REALLY been enthusiastic about it?

I really think this means something.
Considering the fact that George is apparently very adamant about Prana today.

Cool. Here's an idea...why don't you stop being enigmatic and make plain cases? Or are you secretly The Sphynx?

[Persivul]

At least this has someone from the popo lynch on it.

DUDE - YOU WERE ON THE POPO LYNCH.

AND WHEN I FLIP GREEN YOU SAID YOU CONTINUE DOWN YOUR LYNCH WHICH HAS NOBODY FROM THE POPO LYNCH ON IT.

Fuck me. How are you not getting this?

Because I think you'll flip red.
Yeah, you say you're green. Everyone does. It's meaningless. You saying you'll flip green doesn't mean that I'm proposing a pool in which no one bused popo.

So...are you a fucking idiot, or just sowing confusion?

[Persivul]

WHERE DO YOU CONSIDER NEXT?

Do not say "Una/Puppy"

Una/Puppy

because then you are suggesting no scum was on the popo wagon.

Doesn't bother me. Your argument that certain wagons should have had certain numbers of scum on them is just made-up bullshit.

p-edit: puppy, why is prana right that there there has to be one scum on the Persi wagon and one scum off?

[Persivul]

I have never, nor would I ever, admit to having been off the wagon to "look town".

Yes you did. Just like I said I'm on prana because he always rolls scum.

[Persivul]

Because if Prana is green then at least one scum is in Puppy/Knight - and [they] are both saying Una is scum. And I don't get a feeling that's a bus.

Persi, can you acknowledge this? Do you think this is an additional gambit by Puppy in Una/Puppy world?

1. I'm not going down the doubting my main scum read rabbit hole. There lies madness.
2. How accurate are your feelings regarding busing?

[Persivul]

p-edit: puppy, why is prana right that there there has to be one scum on the Persi wagon and one scum off?

both scum bussing just doesn't make sense, if that were the case popo didn't need to bother with his cc at all

the whole point of the cc is to get u lynched, right? if that was the scum goal for the day then why would both partners vote for popo? if they were going to vote together, could have just voted against u and gotten the mislynch through. two scum on wagon only makes sense if one of them is u/tanner, and i'm ruling that out for now

LOL - what about no scum?

[Persivul]

Tanner, you're making yourself crazy. We don't need to solve the game today. We flip prana today. That's more information, and likely still a mislynch in hand. Scum kill someone tonight. That's more information. It's just a game. Relax.

[Persivul]

graveyard, if i screw the pooch on this one i'm sorry, persi just doesn't make sense here, im not going to wifom myself into the most improbable scumteam here

It's only because it doesn't make sense anymore that I'm not still riding him.

He's the most anti-town player in this entire game by a very long way.

"No, I refuse to do anything all game, and I'm going to push someone, then ignore a legitimate question about what happens if my read flips green, because... I'm unable to do anything pro-town".

If he's scum... I'll happily say I told you so from the grave though, if he's not... he needs to learn that refusing to actually help town is a huge negative.

Remember, I've still caught one more scum than you.

[Persivul]

You could be forced to go down there tomorrow.

Nope. Tomorrow he'll be flipped, and there will be no doubts.

How am I supposed to know how accurate they are? If you're talking in general, I guess ~average? Which is why I'm asking you for help.

What are you looking for - no feelings that you might be wrong? If you're town, that's not going to happen. It just isn't. I like you and so keep that in mind when I say this. If this game is keeping you up at night, you shouldn't be playing it. There's always uncertainty when you're town, and you're town 3/4 of the time. I let it get to me once. Then I took a year off, and came back with a new way of seeing it.

The question right now is this: do you think prana's the scummiest player?

The question right now ISN'T:
- if prana is lynched and flips green, AND
--pers is the NK, what do I do?
--george is the NK, what do I do?
--una is the NK, what do I do?
--and so on down the list.

Just vote the scummiest player. If you're wrong, it's no big deal. Shrug it off and sign up for another. I just signed up for haunted mansion in the open queue. It's a pretty neat setup.

[Persivul]

I mean, look at puppy. He's misrepping me. He's misrepping una. He put a town read on prana with the flimsiest of reasoning. I don't need to solve the entire game around him in order to scum read him.

[Persivul]

u said urself that u were partly reading prana as scum because he rolled scum a lot and u were worried about that.

No, I didn't. That's a misrep.

[Persivul]

It's been all game Puppy. So it's very easy for scum to coast on through. Persivul has his blinkers on, hes right, nobody else matters, planning for a worst case scenario doesn't matter, and if he fucks up "oh well, just a game, lol".

He ruins the game for everyone else with that attitude. Why should I give a toss about any game I'm in with Persi when I know he won't put actual effort in, because "it's just a game".

People play this to win. Persi clearly isn't interested in winning or losing, thus plays anti-town.

Any game with a player like that in is a shit game. He doesn't care if anyone else wants to play the game properly, merely that he does what he wants.

Prana, I'm one vote. If I'm not putting any effort in, it should be pretty easy for you to convince people of your reads and get them to vote with you. Why aren't you able to do that?

Also, I'm one of three votes on you. Why aren't you personally insulting the other two, as you are with me?

[Persivul]

Yes, it's a misrep. Your tunneling, misrepping, and AtE are all scummy. I went to read town games of yours to see if you play that way as town. You don't have enough town games for me to get a town baseline on you.

[Persivul]

And the difference is, other players are at least looking at others, are actually considering what happens when I flip town, and have done so the rest of the game.

So you think the first two votes on you are acceptable?

[Persivul]

You actually didn't. It's a secret alts game, you were supposed to PM the mod.

Well, back to mini normals!

Not sure what the secret alt thing is about - seems like most people on this site are playing secret alts most of the time anyway...

[Persivul]

That ALONE should be enough for D1 policy lynched going forwards.

Yabut you're blacklisting me, so you won't be there to tell them!

[Persivul]

I'm not even saying yours is "unacceptable" for fucks sake.

Seems that way. You say I'm not doing anything positive. Just tunneling.

I'm asking you to look tomorrow, because you die tonight. So to give advice for where you believe town should look ON ME FLIPPING GREEN.

You have no respect for my game, to the extent you think I should be policy lynhjced D1 in every game I play...yet you want me to give town advice?

Una/Puppy like you've said multiple times ONLY works if I'm scum.

And I think you're scum.

So when I flip green, town need as much information as possible.

So who is most scummy, to you, out of Knightmare, George and Tanner?

Answer me (and town)

that one question.

Bolded is where you or puppy would say this is a scum slip, if I said that.

[Persivul]

You actually didn't. It's a secret alts game, you were supposed to PM the mod.

Well, back to mini normals!

Not sure what the secret alt thing is about - seems like most people on this site are playing secret alts most of the time anyway...

Yeah you're a good player, so Iv'e been wondering who your main/other alts are in order to play more with you, but I don't pry.

[Persivul]

Tanner, consider:

popo laid the groundwork for the fake result on me early on D3. This indicates that scum chose me N2.

They could have chosen ANYONE for that move.

The easiest choice would have been the riabi (now puppy) slot. That would likely have gone through.

Choosing me had a negative - if successful, my flip would confirm mavs. Not that big a deal, but still negative relative to every other choice.

Yet, they chose me. Why?

I was heavily pushing prana D2.

[Persivul]

How many days do we have? We're going to lynch between PD, Una and Puppy then we can try to eliminate pairs and lynch accordingly.

See above. George and tanner don't like prana/puppy, so IMO the lynch order is prana-una-puppy.

cool

Personally I've gone back to prana-puppy-una, but the main thing is prana for today.

[Persivul]

Here's an idea - let's lynch prana!

Una?
Tanner?

[Persivul]

Well I like my idea better, but you do you.

[Persivul]

Knightmare in Pod A...

Puppy in Pod B?

Pod A is kind of a weird question to ask

His theory is that for some reason, exactly 1 scum was on the popo lynch yesterday, and one (in addition to popo) off. Since he says that he's town, that means there's 1 scum in pod A, the people other than himself/me on the popo lynch. It's just a distraction. He hopes that if he can get people to think about a scenario in which he isn't scum, they might start believing it.

[Persivul]

From Mastin Academy scum guide:

Now, you shouldn't ignore suspicion on you altogether--instead, redirect it, e.g.: "alright, I get it, you think I'm scum. But if I wasn't, who is? Talk to me, here".

[Persivul]

My reads don't matter

For once I agree with you...

[Persivul]

this is a useless list based off the assumption that scum bussed, if puppy is scum he could not have bussed anyway.

Is this a slip?

Seems to me he's referring to the fact that the slot was empty then. Empty slots can't bus.

[Persivul]

LOL sorry

[Persivul]

Right. Do we have anything left to say?

Yep. I'm going camping this weekend, Fri noon - Mon noon. This campground does have wifi for sale, so I think I'll be around, BUT it's their first weekend due to COVID, so no guarantee it will be working.

@mod:
- I'll be VLA this Fri - Mon
- Can we have a 24 hour extension to next day phase due to the US holiday weekend?

[Persivul]

Waiting for it...

[Persivul]

No, I was waiting for puppy to jump in and say my post to mod is a scum slip because I'm acting like I know I'll be here tomorrow.

Take your time.

[Persivul]

knight thinks it's prana and me or una

if he thinks it's me/una than he's admitting he doesn't think prana is scum, no?

This is EXACTLY the kind of thing these scenarios are meant to lead to.

[Persivul]

That's unfortunately the kill I expected. Would have preferred it to be me.

We need to assume this is 3:2 lylo, so no one vote please.

Can everyone give their current two scum?

As noted previously, I may or may not be here this weekend, depending on the campground's wifi.

[Persivul]

Una is my safest bet today. I'm lost between sorting Knight and Puppy though.

I have wifi, at least for the moment

George, would you ISO puppy and give me your thoughts?

[Persivul]

still una/knight

not much to add, might go on vacation so a shorter phase would be better imo

What's the timing of the possible vacation? That's pretty significant since we're probably in lylo.

[Persivul]

I'm currently thinking Una/Knight.

[Persivul]

Was George supposed to be the designated mislynch until they realized Persivul was willing to include me in there?

Everyone includes you in there. Why do you single me out?

[Persivul]

Una...why were you chosen as the designated lynch?

[Persivul]

Actually just Ruby.

Ruby made 8 posts in 17 minutes then disappeared.

[Persivul]

Everyone has Una in their pool. And with good reason. He's barely done a town thing all game. He even admits it:
"Because I have been unable to make a clear difference in the wagons and lynches so far.
I have been unable to do much "obvious" good for towns benefit."
With all 4 of us on him, una is apparently going to be lynched. So, I think we should assume he's scum and save his lynch for tomorrow (if we get there), when no matter who's left alive, una is likely to go.

Between the popo 1v1 with me and the mavs flip, I'm the closest thing to conftown we have. Yet, Tanner died. I've had a tendency to tunnel this game, so I think the fact that I'm alive shows that at least one of my pool is wrong. My pool was una and puppy. Assuming that una is scum, that means puppy probably isn't. Puppy posts that I like: 1369, 1405, 1419-1420, actually more than I feel like listing. A very interesting point is that he was pushing una before it was fashionable. I find it hard to believe that una/puppy could be the team. Search pup's ISO on una and tell me that these are scum buddies. Yet, una/pup is knight's scum team.

George - not scum. I just reviewed (again) his ISO along with the popo slot, and those interactions don't read as scum buddies. Also see post 1180 - that's a lot of work for someone who isn't actually trying to solve the game.

Also note that farside listed knight D1, and prana and tanner did yesterday. They're all dead.

Pools:
Knight - puppy/una
Una - puppy/george
Puppy - una/knight
George - una + knight/puppy
Pers - una/knight

With 4 on una, that's the easy lynch today. BUT, if I'm right on knight, then they kill me tonight, and have a shot at convincing George tomorrow.

If we lynch knight today, then (again) whoever's left tomorrow presumably lynches una.

So, if my assessment is correct, the surest way to a win is to vote knight and hope puppy joins. When knight isn't then hammered by scum in a reasonable time, we know he's scum and anyone can finish him off. Then una goes tomorrow no matter who the NK is.

That's where I'm at now. The last bit is talking out loud at this point. I'm not committed to yet. We still have almost three days left. That plan would need to commence with 1.5 days left or so. So, 1.5 days to talk.

[Persivul]

I think right now i'm confident with Puppy over Una.

Shit, forgot about this. George, explain this to me.

[Persivul]

Una is my safest bet today. I'm lost between sorting Knight and Puppy though.

Are you at puppy/una, or puppy/knight?

[Persivul]

@Persivul, what do you think about

1738?

It's a reasonable point. OTOH, it was odd that una specifically called out George in 1260. Could have been a signal that he didn't want both of you on the mislynch.

Una's vote/unvote there seemed like a signal of some sort, but I'm not sure of what. He's also seemed unusually speculative about daytalk IIRC.

George, what do you think of the D3 voting in general, and page 51 in particular?

[Persivul]

I've already given my solve of red!Prana = Puppy>Una,

green!Prana = Puppy/Knight

.

This is what was killed last night.

[Persivul]

George, talk to me.

[Persivul]

The more I think about it, the more I go in circles. Each case has pros and cons. Final deciding factor is that both Tanner and prana named Knight yesterday.

VOTE: Knightmare

[Persivul]

So you're lurking, not adding content, not voting anyone...just sitting there waiting to bitch about my eventual vote?

[Persivul]

From my POV it's pretty clear, I do not see GB being scum due to interactions with popo and Persivul cannot be scum.
So it has to be puppy + una by POE.

You know what might have been compelling? Actual cases instead of just POE.

[Persivul]

Scum had to kill one of Tanner or you.

Yep. Tanner had you in his lynch pool for today. I didn't. I'm alive. Ignoring that would be drinking the wifom, and in the long term that's not a successful strategy.

If we lose this game, so be it. If you're town, you should have actually helped me by pushing your scum reads. I don't appreciate that everyone has basically abdicated this decision to me. Just because I'm pretty much mechanically cleared doesn't mean people should just quit playing in lylo. Yet even George, my towniest read, has done almost nothing.

[Persivul]

You only have one scum read?

[Persivul]

Just double ISO'd you and luca/popo again. Your interactions are almost nonexistent.

[Persivul]

I've talked about una already.

This pisses me off. If you're town - FUCK YOU. We've all talked about everyone already. There's a reason they call a push a PUSH, not a fucking TALK ABOUT.

[Persivul]

You think it's Una+me, does that make sense to you?

I'm not necessarily married to una being your partner.

[Persivul]

Nah. I'm taking a shower now, then doing some work. If I'm wrong, too fucking bad. Like I said, I'm salty that this was left all to me to decide.

[Persivul]

I'm not not take the blame for the loss when people want to take mad leaps in faith to see me as scum.

Cleaned up and have my coffee.

Mad leap in faith? Dude, all four living players have you in their scum pool, as did the last NK and the last lynch.

[Persivul]

You think this is staged?

I've already said that I think Una's vote/unvote is sus, yes. Does it look natural to you?

[Persivul]

It doesn't I think it was a last ditch attempt to get you lynched.

If he was trying to get me lynched, why did he unvote 31 minutes later?

[Persivul]

So you can make a case on una, yet you're voting puppy, whom you say you can't make a case on.

[Persivul]

UNVOTE:

[Persivul]

I have to assume George is town in order to maintain my sanity. That leaves 3 possibilities:

una/knight
una/puppy
puppy/knight

With these votes, I don't think it's puppy/knight. That leaves:

una/knight
una/puppy

Just read puppy's ISO again, and I think una/puppy is close to impossible. puppy was pushing una and repeatedly saying we should lynch between una/puppy instead of lynching prana. I don't see how anyone can read that and come away thinking it's s/s distancing.

So that gets me back to una/knight. Which means:
VOTE: Knightmare

[Persivul]

If that's the case he did a good job of it.

p-edit: whatever. You could have stood up and led today if you cared that much.

[Persivul]

lol that means it's either puppy+george or only 2 scum.

Or still you and una, and una's playing it cool.

[Persivul]

I've seen one 11:2 before. If that's what we're in, yes, it's whack.

[Persivul]

UNVOTE:

[Persivul]

Thinking about voting una. He's the other person in my 3:2 solve. If it's really 4:1, he might be more likely.

Although now that I think of it: if there's only two scum total, do they do the popo gambit when it wouldn't even get them to lylo? Seems unlikely.

[Persivul]

Wait what Persivul?
I really thought you had seen the light.

Which light is that?

[Persivul]

Knightmare+puppy.
I'm town here.

I specifically said I didn't think it was knight/puppy.

[Persivul]

Actually, nevermind, it would be the same theory, he was going to get lynched and tried to save himself.

Not really. He laid the groundwork early in the day. It was planned.

[Persivul]

He's a safer Lynch than una, he basically has to be scum.

How so?

[Persivul]

If Knight was town he would have been quick lynched already too.

Yeah, me and pup were on knight. una was on and didn't hammer. You were on and didn't hammer. That means he's scum, or it's 4:1. Either way we can lynch and still get a tomorrow. And as noted the popo gambit seems to indicate 3:2.

VOTE: Knightmare

[Persivul]

Damn no flip?

[Persivul]

I just PM'd mod.

[Persivul]

I just read (every word, not skimmed) the combined una/puppy ISOs.

Puppy is scum hunting. He doesn't know the answers and is looking for them.
Una is studiously riding the fence (post above is the latest example), never really pushing, always working to leave his options open.

I didn't sleep well last night and after all this I'm not going to vote in this state. Plus I'm going to do some meta diving. But the chance I'll change my mind is like 1-2%. I feel that I've done my due diligence and my position is well supported.

FOS: Una

[Persivul]

Just read Una's three most recent town games. In those he votes more, uses gut more. It's a pretty clear difference from this game.

[Persivul]

Read una's ISO. It's scum, riding the fence and keeping lynch options open.

[Persivul]

normally in lylo like this i woud go back and look at the d1 wagons and draw pretty green and red colors around all the flips. is that even worth my time when we had two millers and a IC and there was basically no normal wagon development?

Probably not. Here's something interesting from the VCs though:
We've lynched 4 town.
Una was the hammer on 3 of them.

[Persivul]

Well, here goes nothing.
VOTE: Drew-Sta

Were you really a Miller?

VOTE: Prana - I'm done with this madafakin dayphase, in this madafaking game.

Eh, guess I'll just hammer and we can talk it all out tomorrow.
Here goes nothing: VOTE: Knightmare

And note the little non-committal comment made with each one. Just kind of shrugging his shoulders as he hammers.

[Persivul]

scum has to have known all along that it was 11:2

That's part of my read. You discussed the possibility of 2 scum openly. Una didn't.

[Persivul]

I dare you to vote me Persi.
If it's scum!puppy, you are not voting there today anyway, what with your FoS and all..

OK. I didn't want to put the replacement in the position of deciding the game, since that sucks and should really be my responsibility, but since you're double dog daring me...
VOTE: Una

[Persivul]

Persivul isn't going to be lynched in this game, ever, based on setup spec. alone.
If Persivul is scum and someone tells me after the game that I'm stupid for thinking it'd be unfair for town to have two Millers, a red herring -quasi-Miller role and an IC and nothing else....well....
Guess I'm stupid then.
But I know this would likely be my last Normal game on site as well.

[Persivul]

I can only see two reasons for killing Tanner. And only one of them is sensible in this game-state. -_-

I'll have to re-read it all I guess, but at the very least I have the luxury of getting to pick from a 2/3 scumpool because

I refuse to backtrack on Persivul

.

Puppy/George is obviously the one I'm left with since Prana flipped green after all.
I'll do more work with the ISOs to really feel like I can lock it down before throwing down a vote obviously, but that's where I'm right now.

Was George supposed to be the designated mislynch until they realized Persivul was willing to include me in there?

Everyone includes you in there. Why do you single me out?

Because your words carry the most weight around here, since

you are the one and only member of the townblock

.

I was left alive as a wifom move. It's the only play he had left. Considering these quotes, he should have puppy as scum.

[Persivul]

I'm town. Puppy?

[Persivul]

Well played. I always fuck up in lylo, but this time I really thought I had it, especially when una turned on me and dared me on the vote. Looking at you v. una, I doin't feel guilty about this one.

[Persivul]

Like, I don't think the setup was as bad as some people think, but since I was the only scum and my slot had almost no content,.it almost wasn't mafia

Not the mods fault I think, it wasn't just the setup but the setup plus the inactivity

Did you have a role, or was the tracker claim on George just a guess?

[Persivul]

That was really excellent scum play. Like I said, I read the ISOs and you really looked good. I was giving you shit at the time, but even at the time I thought that was mainly because I was tunneled on prana.

[Persivul]

Like, I don't think the setup was as bad as some people think, but since I was the only scum and my slot had almost no content,.it almost wasn't mafia

Not the mods fault I think, it wasn't just the setup but the setup plus the inactivity

I think the setup was fair, with one caveat - there are so few 11:2 setups, that the extra player doesn't benefit town as much as designers may think, because much of the analysis after the first scum lynch is based on pairs.

[Persivul]

Nor should you.

Thanks, but still, I suck. I think I'm taking the summer off after the game I'm currently in.

[Persivul]

Or maybe I'll play an open if a decent one comes up. I've kind of had it with normals. The setups are too weird lately.

For instance, I've had it with named townies. We had that encryptor whatever it was, plus two millers with no cop. That's three named townies. You could say two, since my role was obviously to confirm one of them. But still, this setup was made just to fuck with town's head.

[Persivul]

About the rest(balance, fun)... let`s talk about that if you want, here. Feedback is appreciated.

I already said this, and the dead thread is saying it too. Drew: "Set ups like this make it hard for town as it blows their conception of the set up and they never recover."

[Persivul]

I want to repeat that I think the game was basically balanced when you look at the roles. Named townies just aren't fun for me. It's like town's playing against both the scum and the mod.

[Persivul]

Reading the dead thread, I have to say...FUCK YOU to all the people criticizing me. I'm done with this site for awhile.

If you're all so fucking great, why did it come down to lylo?

[Persivul]

The setup speculation by some townies has been really bad. You seriously assumed that this setup, plus one goon, minus one VT... is balanced(well most of them not all). But that literally cannot pass the normal review because it would be extremely scumsided. I would not have been surprised much if you assumed a traitor, but three goons, really? You all should be experienced enough to know better. You still stubbornly looked for a full-fledged scumteam that was simply not existant.

I've been here 5 years and that was only the second 11:2 I've seen, and I play minis almost exclusively.

[Persivul]

I was criticising you all game.

And tunneling me all game. You know, town's one PR.

You refused to actually play the game, from day 1.

Playing differently from you /= not playing the game.

I can obvtown it as well as farside. I quit doing that because I was getting NK'd N1 or N2 most games, just like farside.

[Persivul]

There wasn't a traitor. The setup was a town mindfuck.

Why the ascetic whatever it was?

[Persivul]

Persi wanted to rush every single day phase as fast as he could, skip discussion, just "this is my read, lynch them, get on with it". He was a town leader

because of his role...

his play was so anti-town that he was scummier than the scum in any game I've ever played.

1. I was able to do some surface level scummy things precisely BECAUSE I knew my role would likely clear me. I wouldn't play VT this way. I wouldn't typically play a PR this way, EXCEPT I knew it was 1X and once the millers both claimed, I knew I was using it N1 anyway.

2. Please...rushed every single day phase as fast as I could and skipped discussion? You're delusional. I was top poster, with almost 100 more posts than the second, and as George noted Tanner and I were town leaders for much of the game.

[Persivul]

BTW I'm just naturally brash, I'm not really pissed at anyone in the game. Just arguing back as in a game.

[Persivul]

A trap

So, yeah, we were playing against both scum and the mod. I'm not a fan of that.

[Persivul]

Persivul I really do not understand how you wanted to lynch me because Tanner got killed n4 and then you wanted to lynch Una in lylo. Why did you think he's bring you to lylo.

I think it's in the thread, but to recap:
- I individually town read george
- I individually scum read una
- Thinking 3 scum as everyone was, the possibilities were therefore you/una or puppy/una
- Reading puppy's ISO, puppy/una was impossible

IIRC you argued that puppy was just distancing from una. You can now see that wasn't the case.

[Persivul]

why did persi vote first in lylo lmfao

Why did you fake a guilty on me lmfao

[Persivul]

spatchcock

[Persivul]

I know but things like those that were here need to be in games, sometimes.

No they don't.

[Persivul]

I'm just done with normals they can get too mindfucked

^This. I've only been joining them lately because they fill faster, but after this one, it's just not worth my time.

[Persivul]

Do you think that this game was not normal enough, then?

Yes. I started a thread in MD proposing that named townies not be allowed in normals.

Normal is defined for this site, and you were within those definitions, but consider normal usage of "normal." If you were describing mafia roles to someone new to the game, wouldn't you say that town encryptor normally implies the existence of a neighborizer? Or miller normally implies the existence of a cop? I would.

[Persivul]

Do you think that this game was not normal enough, then?

Or look at it this way - this game has led more than one person to say they're done with the normal queue. That should tell you something.

Also consider that mini theme currently and frequently says "needs mods." If you want to fuck with the town, you could always take the game there.

[Persivul]

That should tell you something.

Yeah that it was normal by name, but not by effect.

(or in other words a bit too much weirdness)

Yes, that's pretty much it. If you want to try to trap town etc., just take it to theme.

[Persivul]

Am I on some weird planet where town cannot win unless they are overpowered or some bullshit?

Yes. Here's what's happened over the years. Towns gave up on the conventional wisdom gathered over the years and let townies play in truly scummy manner. So, when those people are scum, they can't be lynched, because half the town says

but he plays that way as town too

. So, towns need to be overpowered to have a chance.

[Persivul]

This game was a mess, and clearly a bastard game.

Bastard is of course a mattrer of opinion. I was going to say that bastard was too far in describing this game, but I checked the wiki page and saw this quote from zoraster:

"I'll put it this way: roles aren't bastard. It's never the roles themselves that are the problem. It's that players don't have a reasonable expectation that a role's power or whatever would be used in the game causing them to play under false pretenses. Some roles are far more likely to be bastard (an announced Death Miller loses some of the reason people have ever wanted to use that role). But that doesn't make them bastard by themselves."

I'd say that millers without a cop and encryptor without any PTs fit that description - playing under false pretenses.

[Persivul]

I don't think you should assume that there should be an X role if there is a Y role in the game.

IMO in a normal, it's reasonable to believe that there's some way that the role you drew could be conceivably used. I don't want to be an encryptor in a setup with no chance that could possibly be of use.