Mini Normal 2139: No Flavor Allowed - Game Over

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:13 pm

And since that post was basically a VT claim, I'll just go ahead and explicitly claim VT.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:15 pm

I honestly wouldn't have considered the possibility of a traitor for one second if he hadn't done that.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:18 pm

Auro wrote:What was the FV's information?

The membership of the 'hood and that at least one of them was scum. That "at least one" is accounted for by brassherald.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:20 pm

In post 1867, Auro wrote:
In post 1865, Umlaut wrote:I honestly wouldn't have considered the possibility of a traitor for one second if he hadn't done that.
If it's true and you're town, it would mean a signal that it's safe to go ahead and mislynch you, I think.

Can you expand on that? I'm not following.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:26 pm

Oh, a signal

to the Mafia

that it's safe to mislynch me.

That... makes a lot of sense. Except for the part where it's not so much a crumb as a loaf.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:28 pm

You seem to believe I'm town and I'm kind of confused about that :/

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:33 pm

Ah, so you did.

So in this universe we're describing we would have Town Informed Fruit Vendor + Town Traffic Analyst + Mafia Traitor + 2x Town Neighbor, 2x Mafia Neighbor.

I think I could buy that. Mafia is a bit weak for a 13p, but then none of town's roles are very good -- the neighborhood would have come out eventually and it's no real surprise for there to be one scum on it, and the Traffic Analyst is only good for innos and even there has a false positive.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:34 pm

Oh right, and Town 1-Shot Cop...

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:37 pm

No, a normal Traitor can't be recruited.

A Traitor is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, as long as it:
is Mafia-aligned

knows the identities of all of the Mafia team

identity is not known by the Mafia team, although they should know a Traitor exists

cannot be recruited to join the rest of the Mafia team, and (unless Bulletproof) is killed if shot

is endgamed if all other Mafia are dead

gives a "guilty" result to Cops, an "innocent" result to Gunsmiths, and a "Traitor" result to Role Cops

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:52 pm

Okay, maybe we do have a solve, or something close to one.

Assume that

clidd is town and honest, and
if there is a traitor, that traitor is not in the neighborhood.

Then I recommend the following plan:

Lynch in the neighborhood starting with the scummiest neighbor, until we hit scum or lose.
If we hit the game isn't over, lynch me. (I'm fine with skipping that step but I'm guessing y'all won't be.)
If the game still isn't over, go back to lynching in the neighborhood.

This wins us the game unless the neighbor we decide is towniest is actually scum.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 6:52 pm

pedit:

If we hit
scum and
the game isn't over, lynch me.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 7:02 pm

Well, only if we treat clidd as an IC too, but yes.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 7:07 pm

I will concede that if clidd and Looker are

both

scum then the setup would be too scumsided, because that would mean there are no other town PRs (unless one of the Neighbors is sitting on one, and frankly I just wouldn't believe them at this point). So sure, Looker is an IC.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 7:23 pm

BS claimed it, then retracted the claim and said he was actually a Follower once I immediately pointed out that Dreamer isn't a normal role.

Umlaut · Sun May 24, 2020 7:26 pm

I'm realizing now my earlier solution doesn't even take into account that we can use BS' claimed Follower ability as well. It's possible we can use this for PoE even if BS is actually a Traitor, provided he lets us call his targets, but I have to work through the details of how that would work.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 4:18 am

In post 974, Umlaut wrote:
In post 964, Umlaut wrote:
In post 950, Umlaut wrote:clidd, your ego is way out of proportion to your actual ability.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 4:21 am

In post 1908, clidd wrote:B.S/Zulfy are scummy, but I still think Umlaut is the best lynch for today. It'll confirm traitors in the game.

It won't confirm that. You're completely dismissing the "all scum in the 'hood" option.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 4:22 am

I agree with massclaim at this point, if we're trying to solve the game here and now, to make sure we're taking everything into account.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 4:54 am

In post 1919, clidd wrote:Yes, I'm ignoring 4 scum inside the hood.

You mean 3. One of them would still be town.

You have to at least agree with this:

If I'm scum, there is scum living in the neighborhood.
If I'm town, there is scum living in the neighborhood.

Doesn't this imply we will eventually have to lynch in the neighborhood, and may as well start now?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 5:37 am

Imagine how you'll look tomorrow trying to argue that you're town after declaring today that the only two options are that I'm scum or you are.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:14 am

In post 1753, clidd wrote:With Looker, BS and me being town, you are the only possible scum outside the neighbor> {
Looker
, Umlaut,
clidd
,
Blatant Scum
}

In post 1761, clidd wrote:
Inference 1:
The hood was designated with 2 scums.

Inference 2:
You are trying not to confront me while looking for a way on scum PT to convert the situation.

Inference 3:
I imagine your partner is Auro or Zulfy.

For you to be town, the hood would have to have been assigned 3 scums and 1 town, which is basically almost a second scum PT (doesn't make sense).

In post 1764, clidd wrote:The only way to get out of this is if your partner does a CC on me. But he can't, because if he do that you will both be confirmed even if I am lynched.

In post 1766, clidd wrote:So yes, you're fucked.

This is when you declared that. I imagine now that you will tell me I'm an idiot for assuming you mean the things you say, so have at it.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:16 am

You said that I'm caught scum, and that the only alternative explanation I can possibly offer is that you're scum who is lying (which at most buys me a day) since any other explanation is unbelievable.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:21 am

I would say I find it hard to believe you can't follow this basic syllogism, but actually I find it quite easy to believe you can't.

The only way Umlaut could possibly be town is if clidd is scum lying about his results.
Umlaut is in fact town.
[fill in the blank]

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:24 am

(to avoid being quoted out of context here: I don't actually believe "The only way Umlaut could possibly be town is if clidd is scum lying about his results." I am saying only that clidd has stated as much.)

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:26 am

In post 1935, Umlaut wrote:(to avoid being quoted out of context here: I don't actually believe "The only way Umlaut could possibly be town is if clidd is scum lying about his results." I am saying only that clidd has stated as much.)

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:26 am

I expected you to quote me out of context eventually, but I didn't expect it to be while we were literally still in that context.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:27 am

In post 1934, clidd wrote:Actually, that was before we thought about the existence of a traitor.

By "we" of course you mean "Umlaut and Auro", since you explicitly said in 1828 that you were not considering that possibility.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:37 am

Hey, maybe you can throw

all

your games by lynching people you aren't sure are scum to soothe your bruised ego. It can be your thing.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:56 am

In post 1912, Umlaut wrote:
In post 974, Umlaut wrote:
In post 964, Umlaut wrote:
In post 950, Umlaut wrote:clidd, your ego is way out of proportion to your actual ability.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:00 am

I don't actually believe you will ever change your mind. I believe you will push for me to be lynched no matter what anyone says, and when I finally am lynched and flip green you will say the next day that it's my fault and this is somehow a victory for you.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:14 am

Use your overwhelming powers of deduction to figure it out.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:35 am

Zulfy, suppose Clidd is town. Under that hypothesis, who do you think is scum and why?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:36 am

I really need to talk to someone else here because this slap-fight with clidd, while it has offered me a way to enjoy playing with him, is not actually progressing the game.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:48 am

So you're ruling out the options of a traitor or of both your neighbors?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:54 am

Why don't you think it's me? I don't recall your ever stating any kind of townread on me before now.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:58 am

viewtopic.php?f=123&t=72108

This setup by Ircher had a Mafia Traitor Night 2 Roleblocker (but it was an 11p).

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 8:06 am

I can buy that.

What are your reasons for thinking clidd is scum? You said "I don't believe his play" but that's kind of tautological. Can you point to some posts and what you find unbelievable about them?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 8:08 am

Zulfy, Auro, has Hoctac been any more active in the neighborhood than he has been in here today?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 10:12 am

I've already claimed VT.

Also, I'd prefer to have the order chosen by... anyone but you. I'd say I want Looker to do it but after how he played in our other game I don't really like that either.

So let's popcorn.

Hoctac, you're up.

If Hoctac doesn't respond in a reasonable amount of time, then Zulfy can claim.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 10:16 am

And I'll assume this means you're locking in the Follower claim.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 11:49 am

You've done a bunch of things that rub me wrong this game whereas Zulfy hasn't so much.

Thinking of Informed Townie as an option for Quick and then just throwing in "but is that even normal, wut?" without at all second-guessing your assurance that he was scum
The weirdness around the Persivul/Ame case thing, which I first wrote off as goofiness and then you tried to pass it off as serious and then later you pretty much admitted it wasn't
You keep claiming vigilante and seemingly letting people take it seriously while playing in such a ha-ha-zany way that you could easily take it back without raising too many eyebrows, and that itself raises mine

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 11:51 am

It all seems like you're playing in a would-scum-make-themselves-so-conspicious manner. I think that you as scum would indeed make yourself so conspicuous.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 12:43 pm

Oh, well if you say so.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:13 pm

I can't help feeling it's more

elegant

for the setup to have three scum in the neighborhood, and for that to be the "thing" about the setup, than to have two in the neighborhood and a traitor outside it. I'm not saying this is the sole consideration in deciding which setup is more likely, but it's something I'm taking into account.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:41 pm

In post 1974, Blatant Scum wrote:1) Umlaut
2) Auro
3) Zulfy
4) Hoctac
5) Looker
Claim.

In post 1975, Blatant Scum wrote:
In post 1974, Blatant Scum wrote:1) Umlaut
2) Auro
3) Zulfy
4) Looker
5) Hoctac
Claim.
Makes more sense.

Can you explain how you chose this order originally, and what made you decide to change it?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:45 pm

Actually I think the optimal thing for today is to figure out who is B.S.' most likely partner in the neighborhood if he is a traitor, and then lynch that person. If we're wrong about B.S. being a traitor then whomever we pick in that way still has a 2/3 chance of being scum, and probably higher since it's unlikely that we choose the otherwise towniest neighbor.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 6:58 pm

By "town PRs" do you just mean B.S.? Because Ame

did

target in the nhood, and it wouldn't make any sense for a traffic analyst to target in the nhood.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:06 pm

Have you all finished claiming amongst yourselves in the neighborhood yet? You're online, Auro is online, Hoctac has been online.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:19 pm

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:20 pm

Unless something entirely new is revealed by this massclaim, and I don't expect that to happen.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:21 pm

And even then, probably no

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:23 pm

I don't recall Looker literally claiming VT. Can you explain how you infer he's VT?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:26 pm

In post 2021, Umlaut wrote:I don't recall Looker literally claiming VT. Can you explain how you infer he's VT?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:37 pm

I would say I can believe he didn't read anything, except his vote for me seems at least somewhat based on the investigative results that have been presented.

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:55 pm

In post 1561, Blatant Scum wrote:Just to make sure. There are no other claims and noone had guilty on Brass.

I was going through Reundo's and Blatant Scum's isos to try and find clues to who the most likely partner would be, and found this oddity.

Read the posts starting from 1534. BS says he doesn't know the setup and asks for info. Ame for some reason says she has a guilty on SirCakez. This is corrected, but

no one ever says anything about a guilty on brass specifically

(only that he was lynched). The only time that was stated outright before then was when Ame herself originally said it in 1422, and if BS went back and read that he should know that there most definitely

was

a guilty on brass. This seems to be slipping that BS understood more about the setup and game state than he was letting on in these posts.

BS, where did you get the idea that "noone had guilty on Brass"?

Umlaut · Mon May 25, 2020 7:56 pm

I also want to resurrect this post by Ame:

In post 1492, Ame wrote:Also considering Brass's willingness to be lynched, I think there's a decent possibility that there is another scum in the hood since his lynch would pseudoclear them. Who began the we-are-definitely-lynching-you-tomorrow campaign against Brass N1? It sounds like a Zulfy line, but if it was Hoc, then I think this supports that idea.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 2:15 am

I should throw out here that I'm okay with a Zulfy lynch too. I'm highly confident there is scum in {Hoctac, Zulfy} and entertaining the possibility that they are both scum.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 2:17 am

I can easily see Zulfy's push as either for show (we are not lynching clidd today, realistically) or pushing for double mislynches on me and clidd, today and tomorrow.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 2:22 am

Anyway, if Hoctac is sticking with the vig claim, we can aim to kill both you and Zulfy today and tonight. Or just lynch Hoctac when that kill doesn't happen.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 2:25 am

Nm, Hoctac VT-slipped in 2035

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:10 am

Don't everyone talk at once, now...

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:11 am

In post 2039, Auro wrote:BS may carry an association with Zulfy also

Can you expand on this?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:17 am

Zulfy wrote:
In post 2038, Umlaut wrote:I can easily see Zulfy's push as either for show (we are not lynching clidd today, realistically) or pushing for double mislynches on me and clidd, today and tomorrow.
why would I push for a lynch on you tomorrow?

Because "clidd was telling the truth, Umlaut must be scum after all"

Alternately, you don't push for it but just sort of let it happen today, then push to lynch clidd tomorrow because "I told you he was lying"

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:28 am

I feel like the most 'obvious' interpretation of today's events is that clidd is town telling the truth and I'm scum by PoE, and that's the one to which Hoctac has subscribed. He hasn't even thought about the world where there's a traitor, which is strange given that he believes clidd.

Zulfy has gone with the alternative that clidd is scum lying and I'm town. He also hasn't said much about the world where there's a traitor, but that's kind of more reasonable if he doesn't believe the claim in the first place? If you don't believe clidd than all of his results are meaningless and there's no particular reason to consider a traitor.

I'm not really sure where you stand, Auro, you are talking plenty about mechanical solves under different circumstances but I don't know what you actually think. For starters, do you believe clidd is town?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:33 am

In post 2058, Auro wrote:
In post 2036, Auro wrote:Umlaut+Zulfy
BS+Hoctac

I think these are the two candidate solves. I don't see any justification from Zulfy on why Clidd is scum. It does feel like he wanted to push Clidd today, but the claim interfered with the plan.

Hoctac's conveniently ignoring the push on BS.
I have stated my positions here, no, Wormboi?

Yes you did, and yes that implies you believe clidd is telling the truth, I'm just slow today.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:37 am

If those are your candidate solutions, do you object to reducing the lynch pool to {Zulfy, Hoctac}? That way we would also cover the case where you're mistaken and in fact both are scum.

That is:

Lynch (Zulfy || Hoctac) today;
if it flips green, lynch (Hoctac || Zulfy) tomorrow;
if it flips red but the game isn't over, you have one mislynch available, so lynch both me and (Hoctac || Zulfy) in whatever order.

I'm not 100% offering to follow this plan because even though I like you the most for town in the nhood I'm not certain enough to commit to a single solution. I'm just asking if it sounds appealing.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:39 am

From your perspective it seems this plan should win the game in any scenario where clidd is honest.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:43 am

Once you eliminate the possibility that the team is {Zulfy, Hoctac}, sure. My proposal works for you even in the case where that is the team.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:50 am

It's pretty close to flip-a-coin for me, but I'd lean toward Hoctac. I think what little he's offered of his perspective today has been pretty simplistic and not at all indicating an effort to solve. I get that he's V/LA but I can only give him so much of a pass for that.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:51 am

I was thinking Zulfy when I could still sort of imagine that maybe Hoctac's vig claim was true, because then we could use that as well, but at this point I'm sure he's not really a vig, whatever he is.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:54 am

In post 2070, Auro wrote:Umlaut, one important question: suppose you were a spectator to this game. Would you say the likelihood of both scum outside the hood is much lesser than both scum inside the hood?

You mean, based on the current game state?

It's hard for me to say what I would think in that situation. If I were a spectator I probably would have also thought Umlaut-in-the-game was scum when clidd made his claim, which would of course rule out both-scum-out-of-the-hood. That said, I think in any case I would have believed clidd's claim, which also rules that out even if Umlaut-in-the-game is town.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 8:56 am

Actually, I suppose my being scum would't mechanically rule out the possibility of a traitor in B.S., but there would be no good reason to believe it was so.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 9:07 am

ohhhhh

I really didn't even consider that someone might imagine the team was {Umlaut, B.S.} until I was double-checking my own reasoning from 2073.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 9:17 am

If you think

both

Hoctac and Zulfy appear to be avoiding commentary on B.S., how do you rule out {B.S., Zulfy} as a solve?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 9:19 am

(I'm assuming you rule out {Umlaut, Hoctac} because if that's the team then he's trying to bus me for no real reason today; I don't know Hoctac's scum game so I can't say how good a reason that is)

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 9:20 am

In post 2036, Auro wrote:Umlaut+Zulfy
BS+Hoctac

I think these are the two candidate solves. I don't see any justification from Zulfy on why Clidd is scum. It does feel like he wanted to push Clidd today, but the claim interfered with the plan.

Hoctac's conveniently ignoring the push on BS.

This appears to rule it out.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 9:25 am

Okay, I misinterpreted, I can see the progression of thought there now: first saying in 2036 "it's BS+Hoctac or Umlaut+Zulfy," and then adding in 2039 "actually BS+Zulfy is an option too." That makes sense.

Get some rest, maybe someone else can come in and chat with me because I've really got nothing else going on today. I'd like to see a lot more from B.S., the last thing he did was order everyone else to claim.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 10:42 am

@Hoctac

You around?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 11:35 am

In post 2085, Zulfy wrote:He's V/LA yo.

I addressed Hoctac because he had been posting on the site within ~20min of my asking. Unfortunately he hasn't posted since.

Do you actually think BS is scum? We've only got one mislynch left, so if you're willing to lynch BS I hope it's because you think he's scum.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:28 pm

VOTE: Hoctac

From my read of the room I don't think I can actually make this lynch happen, but I might as well stake out my position before compromising.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:29 pm

Though I'm honestly feeling better about the Zulfy option the more he posts things like 2096.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:36 pm

Why couldn't scum detect that?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:38 pm

I will resign myself to B.S. if I can't get a neighborhood lynch, but understand I'm not 100% sold on the traitor hypothesis here and I'm expecting we lose the game if it's wrong because at least you, Hoctac, and Looker will want to lynch me tomorrow.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:40 pm

...wait, you won't, because you'll analyze me. So you'll either be dead or saying I'm town (or at least I'll know you're scum if you say otherwise).

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:54 pm

UNVOTE: Hoctac

I went looking for evidence that Hoctac and brassherald were likely buddies and instead I found evidence that {B.S., Hoctac} is highly unlikely.

In post 601, Hoctac wrote:ALSO, I just realised that Klick asking Atarashi and I specifically probably means either valoneast or Zulfy is the scum partner of the 3. I think it's less likely he makes that info-perspective slip while asking a scum buddy why he shouldn't vote for the others in his hood.

If Hoctac is scum and there is a traitor, then Hoctac knows there is a traitor but not who it is -- but the traitor knows who the rest of the scum are.

If Hoctac is scum

and

there's a traitor, then when Quick makes a post specifically calling for the attention of the other two scum, Hoctac is most likely to read it as a traitor soft.

Okay, the scumteam is {B.S., Zulfy}. Game solved. Which one do we want to lynch?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 3:55 pm

Actually, it could still be {Zulfy, Hoctac}.

VOTE: Zulfy

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 4:46 pm

I am the one who produced what I still consider compelling evidence that Ircher would happily create a setup with all three scum in the neighborhood. If Zulfy is scum (and at this point by my PoE he has to be), then by lynching him we know 100% whether B.S. is a traitor just by whether the game ends then and there.

It seems like you find it hard to believe that setup could exist; I don't.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 5:18 pm

Auro: look at Ircher's micro normal review, July 2018. The setup he initially proposed was:

Ircher wrote:
Role List:

1. Town Mason
2. Town Informed Mason (Is informed that there is at least one neighborhood in this game)
3. Vanilla Townie
4. Vanilla Townie
5. Vanilla Townie
6. Vanilla Townie
7. Vanilla Townie
8. Mafia Neighbor A
9. Mafia Neighbor A

Other Info:

1. All threads have daytalk.
2. Yes, the mafia are neighbors with each other.

The reviewer's reaction:

In post 2, Something_Smart wrote:I'm very skeptical that this idea would work.

I doubt many towns would even consider lynching the other neighbor after the first one flipped mafia.

Ircher asked:

In post 3, Ircher wrote:That is generally true... Do you think that this idea would ever work (in a micro)?

And the reviewer responded:

In post 4, Something_Smart wrote:I think we MIGHT be able to get it to work if we added a town neighbor.

The issue is that the balance of this game is swung very strongly by the way that it defies expectations, but it's almost impossible to predict how much of an impact people's expectations will have on the game because that varies so much from player to player.

Ircher

still

didn't give up:

In post 10, Ircher wrote:Town Neighbor A
Town Neighbor A Friendly Neighbor
VT
VT
VT
VT
VT
Mafia Neighbor B
Mafia Neighbor B

Do you think this would work out worse or better than the originally proposed setup?

But this was shot down too, and the setup was eventually taken in a whole different direction (and in fact not actually run by Ircher at all).

If I imagine myself in the mod's shoes after a review session like this, I see my thought process being something like:

I proposed this setup specifically because I really wanted to have a neighborhood with all the scum in it, and then that was the first thing the reviewers took out. I'll live with that setup for now, but I want to revisit this idea down the road sometime, perhaps in a bigger game such as a mini, where I'll have room for a larger neighborhood as S_S suggested might make this possible. If I give the town the right investigative powers, they should at least have a fighting chance of collecting enough evidence to overwhelm the prior low probability they would assign such a setup.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 5:27 pm

In post 2117, Zulfy wrote:Can you share the process of that P o E pal.

I'm town.
clidd is town and telling the truth about his results (I'm very confident).
That means, if there's scum outside the neighborhood, it's got to be Blatant Scum.
Therefore there is at least one scum in the neighborhood.
Auro is town (I think).
Therefore the scum in the neighborhood are among {Zulfy, Hoctac}.
Per 2109, a team of B.S. and Hoctac is implausible.
Therefore the only plausible teams are B.S.+Zulfy and Hoctac+Zulfy.
Therefore you're scum.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 5:53 pm

I don't understand how the follower should know to keep targeting within the hood after one scum in the hood is caught, unless he already knows there's a traffic analyst handling the outside-the-hood checks. And if he already knows there's a traffic analyst then, very soon, there won't be a traffic analyst, given that as far as I can see we have no protective roles.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 6:03 pm

And while this point is perhaps a little very WIFOMy, I don't see how you can tell me "it would be too easy for town to win in that setup" when the town is right now about to lose if that's the setup unless I can convince a bunch of people who seem absolutely sure it's impossible.

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 6:05 pm

Perhaps we should just ask B.S. how he chose his targets.

@B.S.

How did you choose your targets?

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 6:09 pm

...except two of those targets were chosen by Reundo. Awesome

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 6:10 pm

In post 2129, Umlaut wrote:...except two of those targets were chosen by Reundo. Awesome

(assuming the claim is true)

Umlaut · Tue May 26, 2020 6:16 pm

I'll consider this some more. I kind of discount that argument since Reundo has seemingly siteflaked, but I will still review their meta to see what you're talking about.

Umlaut · Wed May 27, 2020 9:22 am

In post 2134, Zulfy wrote:Why Auro over me? Is it the effortposting?

A lot of it is the effortposting, but also I already thought valoneast was town before.

In post 2138, Hoctac wrote:Damn, Umlaut, this is more effort than I've seen from you in any of the other games. Shame that includes a town and a scum game. Remind me which alignment you enjoy more? I'm sure you've told me before but I've forgotten over the years

I used to prefer scum (my wiki page still says this) but lately it's pretty close to even and depends more on what side of the bed I get up on. I admit I can simulate effort pretty well as scum. But really what's going on here is just that I was in three games and now I'm in one and can focus on it fully. Trying to solve one game while trying not to get scumread by the same people in another has been an endeavor I don't look forward to repeating (and, though I couldn't say so at the time, was part of the reason I killed you over Planes in Micro 938, because I felt you were much more likely to see through my scum game given that you were watching my town game at the same time).

@clidd

can you please ask Looker to claim, so maybe he'll actually do it?

Umlaut · Wed May 27, 2020 9:53 am

@mod: B.S. is overdue for a prod

@B.S.:

Please come back and answer some of the questions you have been asked, like "why did you follow whom you followed" and "why that particular claim order"

Umlaut · Wed May 27, 2020 10:36 am

In post 2146, Hoctac wrote:
In post 2143, Umlaut wrote:Trying to solve one game while trying not to get scumread by the same people in another has been an endeavor I don't look forward to repeating (and, though I couldn't say so at the time, was part of the reason I killed you over Planes in Micro 938, because I felt you were much more likely to see through my scum game given that you were watching my town game at the same time).
Interesting! I want to believe this thought process and it'd be really town-indicative if I wasn't playing with town!you in Blitz simulatenously - that was running at the same time, right?

I forgive you for brutally murdering me btw.

I don't need your forgiveness, because I don't regret it

Yes, you were in the blitz game as well and my neighbor at that (though actually I'm pretty sure you died in the blitz game first) so you got to see

all

my activity in that game, such as it was, in real-time.

Umlaut · Thu May 28, 2020 3:45 am

If we're going to lynch B.S. today no matter what I say then let's just do it.

Umlaut · Thu May 28, 2020 6:57 am

In post 1795, Blatant Scum wrote:N1: Farside - nothing
N2: Looker - nothing
N3: Umlaut - nothing

I assume these are really the individuals targeted even though B.S. lied about their role in that post.

Umlaut · Thu May 28, 2020 10:03 am

And the way things have slowed down tells me no one really has much left to say today.

Umlaut · Thu May 28, 2020 1:41 pm

Even the mod is telling us to hurry up now.

VOTE: Blatant Scum

Umlaut · Thu May 28, 2020 4:21 pm

Morning Tweet, can you go ahead and claim your role and any results you might have from it?

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 3:39 am

@mod Do you intend to extend the day if replacements are hard to come by?

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:03 pm

UNVOTE: Blatant Scum

Lynching BS-slot seeme inevitable, but I'd like to at least let our replacement(s) get their bearings first.

@Micc

Everyone has massclaimed roles and results, can you claim yours please?

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:10 pm

Speaking for myself I would much rather lynch someone in the neighborhood, but I've thrown everything I have into arguing that already and zero people have been interested in that. If you are interested then I'd be happy to start pushing for that again, though.

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:11 pm

The neighbors are Hoctac, Zulfy, Auro, and

brassherald

(deceased). The living neighbors all claim to be otherwise unpowered.
Aside from you, there's B.S. who claims Follower with the results presumably being those in 1795.
There was also

Ame

, the 1-Shot Cop.

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:16 pm

In 2121 I made what I consider to be the best version of the case that it's quite likely all scum are in the neighborhood. I'll acknowledge that my being the one to make that case is a bit unfortunate since the only alternative (barring the traitor hypothesis) is that I myself am scum, but I'd still be interested in your thoughts on it.

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:17 pm

In post 2186, Umlaut wrote:The neighbors are Hoctac, Zulfy, Auro, and
brassherald
(deceased). The living neighbors all claim to be otherwise unpowered.
Aside from you, there's B.S. who claims Follower with the results presumably being those in 1795.
There was also
Ame
, the 1-Shot Cop.

Also,

Quick

was a Town Informed Fruit Vendor who was informed of the existence of a neighborhood, its membership, and that at least one person in the neighborhood was mafia. So unless we believe Quick was lying the makeup of the neighborhood is pretty much beyond dispute and there is no need to call it "claimed".

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:18 pm

In post 2183, Micc wrote:but also traitors get engamed if the rest of the scum die, so they aren't even worth lynching.

THANK YOU

I've been saying this for pages

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 12:51 pm

In post 2191, Micc wrote:
In post 2187, Umlaut wrote:but I'd still be interested in your thoughts on it.
well yeah, its the only logical conclusion unless there is doubt about my slot.

start with 7 players, throw out me, Looker, and BS and that leaves a lynch pool of you plus the neighbors.

is there doubt about my slot?

Zulfy is the only one who's expressed ongoing doubts about your slot today.

Agreed with that PoE, I was more asking whether you agree with what seems to be the everyone-but-me consensus that an all-neighbor scumteam is realistically impossible.

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 1:43 pm

I'm inclined to think Auro is town, partially because I already thought that of valoneast and partially because of how much he's participated in game-solving today. He's rejected the "all scum in the nhood" hypothesis but he's actually given reasons why he finds it improbable.

I could believe either or both of the other two are scum. Zulfy started off today saying he just outright disbelieved clidd's claim, and I'm not sure how he's come around from that to voting BS without ever really saying he believes it now when the only reason to think BS is likely a traitor is if you think Micc/clidd is telling the truth here. Hoctac said earlier that he thinks the scumteam could likely be me and Zulfy, and also hasn't really given a reason for jumping onto BS now, particularly since he said recently that he wanted to wait for a replacement (I suppose he could have decided there wasn't time, but it's not as if there was a whole lot more time when he said it).

Umlaut · Fri May 29, 2020 1:48 pm

Auro's 2070 and subsequent 2075 also exhibit a healthy paranoia of my slot that I don't think a scum!Auro would bother to fake at that point when he could just accept my proposal and coast to victory on it.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 3:51 am

@FB

I'm pretty on top of what's normal and every claim this game has been normal except that ridiculous one you quoted.

Tl;dr: If you believe Micc's claim (and I do) then you have to believe at least one of the following:

one of you or Looker is a Mafia Traitor
I'm scum, and my buddy is in the neighborhood (whose living members are {Hoctac, Zulfy, Auro}
Both remaining scum are in that neighborhood

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 3:53 am

I mean, I've canvassed pretty hard for "both scum are in the neighborhood" but (at least until Micc replaced in) pretty much been dismissed.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 3:53 am

In post 2231, Firebringer wrote:
In post 2228, Umlaut wrote:I'm scum, and my buddy is in the neighborhood (whose living members are {Hoctac, Zulfy, Auro}
wait why would u be scum by this premise

I'm the only one out of the neighborhood that was never cleared by Micc's predecessor as "not having private communciation"

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 3:56 am

If there are no traitors then scum have to have private communication. If Micc is town, then

Micc is town, because that's the hypothesis
you and Looker are town, because Micc's results say you don't have a scum PT
everyone else but me is in the neighborhood

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 3:59 am

Is there a reason why Zulfy specifically? I don't disagree with the vote but I do want to understand it.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:02 am

Firebringer wrote:zulfy been like scum in last 100 games i played with him. I figure just safer to bet he is always scum tbh.

Excellent case, I'm sold.

VOTE: Zulfy

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:03 am

UNVOTE: Zulfy

If there is a traitor it's almost certainly you so I should be a bit more careful following here.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:10 am

In post 2243, Firebringer wrote:i think my case is pretty good too. What makes u think i am a traitor? Doesn't me posting the same night actions as my predecessor show we aren't lying about role

I don't exactly

think

you are, I'm just

afraid

you are.

And you would hardly post different night actions from your predecessor if you were scum. You're not such a poor player as not to make sure you're consistent in that regard.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:17 am

I would think the most likely thing would be for you to just stick with the follower claim. I'm fully aware I'm being paranoid here but all the same I'd like to wait and hear from others too.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:18 am

In post 2246, Firebringer wrote:wait could my role even be a traitor role? Like i don't ever remember traitor night actions being a thing but i don't remember ever seeing that

Um

I don't think anyone believes that you're a traitor

and

have the role you claim

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:31 am

In post 2259, Auro wrote:I mean, if I saw the results claim with whatever that "Dreamer" shit was I'd also want to craft a different claim fast enough

If you think he only saw the "Dreamer" claim and then made up a new claim then it's a bit of a coincidence for him to choose a role with a Follower component, no?

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 4:40 am

@FB

If you think I'm town, how do you feel about just lynching everyone in the neighborhood until town wins?

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 8:34 am

Micc, I don't think we should lynch Firebringer today but you should still care whether he's a traitor, because if he were than his readiness to lynch Zulfy would indicate we ought to lynch pretty much anyone else.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 8:39 am

That said,

VOTE: Zulfy

because we need a wagon and this one is viable.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 11:46 am

In post 2289, Zulfy wrote:Umlaut: are you more convinced by traitor or 3 scum hood?

I'm on the fence, but honestly in my heart I believe in the three-scum hood.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 11:48 am

In post 2286, Zulfy wrote:If the lynch is a neighbor then scum no longer has to kill a neighbor for tomorrow's LYLO.
But with a neighbor lynch they're forced to NK either Hoctac or Auro. If both are alive then I'll entertain Umlaut's 3-scum-in-hood theory.
Lynching me: fucks all of that up completely. And from the very beginning of the day the clidd slot has been gunning for a hood lynch.

Not true, clidd was gunning for my lynch for quite a while from the start of the day. I'm not sure what turned him around on that to be honest.

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 11:55 am

In post 1752, clidd wrote:Aren't you going to vote me ?

In post 1753, clidd wrote:With Looker, BS and me being town, you are the only possible scum outside the neighbor> {
Looker
, Umlaut,
clidd
,
Blatant Scum
}

In post 1761, clidd wrote:
Inference 1:
The hood was designated with 2 scums.

Inference 2:
You are trying not to confront me while looking for a way on scum PT to convert the situation.

Inference 3:
I imagine your partner is Auro or Zulfy.

For you to be town, the hood would have to have been assigned 3 scums and 1 town, which is basically almost a second scum PT (doesn't make sense).

In post 1764, clidd wrote:The only way to get out of this is if your partner does a CC on me. But he can't, because if he do that you will both be confirmed even if I am lynched.

In post 1766, clidd wrote:So yes, you're fucked.

In post 1768, clidd wrote:Hoctac, Auro and Zulfy --> Are you guys there ? I would like opinions on who is scum inside the hood.

We're going to use today to scumhunt Umlaut's partner.

In post 1780, clidd wrote:I'm really curious to see how you plan to get out of this.

What part of this looks like a token push to you?

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 1:40 pm

Zulfy: suppose you magically come to know that one of Auro or Hoctac is scum. Which is it?

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 1:40 pm

(Similar question with the names rotated for the other two neighbors)

Umlaut · Sat May 30, 2020 5:40 pm

In post 2275, Ircher wrote:
This phase will end on May 31, 2020 4:00 PM EDT (GMT-4:00) or in (expired on 2020-05-31 16:00:00).

Everyone not on a lynch wagon needs to get onto one.

Umlaut · Sun May 31, 2020 5:06 am

Haha that's the sex number.

Also, yes, you should hammer.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:09 am

That's... unexpected.

Reaffirming my VT claim btw, not a protective.

Going to wait for Micc's results and any other claims, and meanwhile consider the following question: "In the universe where FB is traitor, would he try to clear his buddy or would he WIFOM it by claiming he's guilty?"

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:31 am

In post 2344, Auro wrote:Interesting. Lynching Hoctac is definitely the play today.
Umlaut... You're thinking I'm Fire's partner?

Conditional on Fire being a traitor that would be a pretty good guess, yeah.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:33 am

Yeah, realistically there is no way Hoctac-the-vig shoots Micc in this situation

and

that kill is prevented

and

the Mafia don't kill anyone.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:35 am

Just spitballing here, don't know if I believe this because clidd's claim looked quite solid to me but: what if

Hoctac is scum
Micc is a
bulletproof
traitor
Hoctac doesn't realize that and shoots him

How plausible does this sound?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:38 am

In post 2375, Auro wrote:Sure but then lynching Hoctac wins the game anyway

Agreed that if we believe it we lynch Hoctac, but solving the game is still good.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:40 am

It's not a correct lynch in the Auro+Fire universe either but I suppose that doesn't really appeal to you as a solution.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:48 am

Micc kill makes sense for absolutely anyone. I would do it because he would hypothetically be about to out me as scum, and anyone else would do it because he would be about to out me as not scum (unless traitor).

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:54 am

1-Shot Bulletproof Traffic Analyst is..... really powerful

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:55 am

But then I didn't believe Informed Fruit Vendor either so what do I know.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:55 am

In post 2401, Firebringer wrote:how did i fake results on u Micc.

I explicitly claimed Hoctac tried to kill u.
Then u show and claim "ohh i am BP btw" so how am i faking a result on U

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:57 am

If you thought the claim was that you tried to kill Hoctac, why would you claim 1-shot BP today?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:59 am

Out of curiosity, Firebringer, I know you can't quote your result PMs but are they worded as generally as possible like "Hoctac made a killing action, and also Hoctac took an action on Micc" or do they just admit you can add 2+2 and say "Hoctac shot Micc"

This isn't indicative of anything, I'm just idly wondering.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:05 am

In post 2417, Micc wrote:
In post 2411, Firebringer wrote:actually Micc, if u take everything u say as true. Then wouldn't it have to be Auro scum.

its either me + auro or auro + hoctac
I don't see how I can rule out FB + hoctac?

Why in the world would scum!FB come in today and say Hoctac tried to shoot you?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:06 am

actually Micc claiming 1-shot BP pretty much confirms FB as town come to think of it

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:08 am

super sketchy second vote there.

Thinking I was right all along yesterday and it's Hoctac+Auro.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:10 am

I guess it's not

so bad

from your perspective since if you're town you know you're town, but it looks like an attempt to grab towncred by busing while you still can.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:14 am

In post 2429, Auro wrote:
In post 2427, Umlaut wrote:Hoctac+Auro
Look at the setup in that case.

Town Informed Fruit Vendor
1x Town 1-Shot Cop
1x Town 1-Shot Bulletproof Traffic Analyst
1x Town Combined Follower-Tracker
1x Town Neighbor
5x Vanilla Townie

vs.

3x Mafia Neighbor

Weird setup, sure. I can't decide if that's too much town power or not, my experience is that people doing setup spec in game often underestimate how much power the NRG likes town to have.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:15 am

In post 2432, Firebringer wrote:if game continues after Hoctac is lynched.
We know 100% that Auro is scum. (Umlaut is cleared by Micc)

If game ends. It ends because Micc was traitor.

If Micc is the scum there's no reason to believe he's a traitor and not just regular scum. The only reason we suspect traitor is because of Micc's own clears.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:17 am

In post 2440, Firebringer wrote:Theres no reason for him to be normal scum for scum to shoot him.

Derp, you're right.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:26 am

So yeah, if anyone outside the neighborhood is Mafia they have to be a traitor, and we win by lynching in the neighborhood.

FB is conftown unless he just made the luckiest fake result claim ever. That means town is voting Hoctac right now, so Hoctac is confscum as soon as Looker posts without quickhammering.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:32 am

...ooorrr I could just hammer him now.

(In case anyone doesn't know, roles with a disloyal modifier aren't actually seen by trackers etc. to take any action if they try to target someone of their own alignment)

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:36 am

In post 2458, Firebringer wrote:
In post 2455, Umlaut wrote:(In case anyone doesn't know, roles with a disloyal modifier aren't actually seen by trackers etc. to take any action if they try to target someone of their own alignment)
Since when?

According to the wiki page on Disloyal:

Disloyal is an acceptable modifier under Normal guidelines on mafiascum.net, when used on an active role belonging to a player of any Town or Mafia/Werewolf alignment. It causes the role to behave as though it were roleblocked unless the target has a different alignment than the user.

Roleblocked actions don't happen, therefore actions prevented by a Disloyal modifier don't happen.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:37 am

In post 2456, Auro wrote:Isn't it 4 to lynch?

True, I forgot that.

Still holding my vote until everyone has at least posted, but I'm not voting anyone except Hoctac today.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:57 am

In post 2479, Firebringer wrote:someone better give me an awfully good reason there wasn't a night kill.

Because Hoctac is scum who shot Micc, who is either bulletproof town or bulletproof scum.

That's a good reason.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:00 am

Should I just vote Hoctac now? I'm willing to wait but I'm pretty sure the plan is just "lynch Hoctac, then possibly lynch Auro if the game isn't over" no matter what else gets said

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:06 am

Okay then

VOTE: Hoctac

From what we've already worked out there's just no way there is scum outside the neighborhood unless they're a traitor. If anyone can think of a way it's possible they should say so but I'm pretty sure we've covered all the possibilities.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:09 am

UNVOTE: Hoctac

Want to go over the possibilities one more time

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:22 am

If Micc is town then any scum outside the nhood is a traitor per Micc's results
If Micc is scum then he has to be a traitor because scum wouldn't shoot him otherwise (unless Hoctac is a disloyal even-night vigilante and also scum no-killed, lol)

so definitely all group scum are in the neighborhood.

If FB is traitor then he would have to have goddamn magic powers to guess that Hoctac actually did shoot Micc after no one died last night, so he's pretty much 100% clear and we can trust his results.

It's also just absurd to think that vig!Hoctac decides not to shoot Auro who is pretty much confirmed scum from his perspective, but instead shoots Micc his townread and a claimed PR, who turns out to be the bulletproof traitor, on the same night that scum decides to no-kill for no reason at all.

Okay fine, voting again.

VOTE: Hoctac

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 10:31 am

In post 2462, Umlaut wrote: According to the wiki page on Disloyal:
Disloyal is an acceptable modifier under Normal guidelines on mafiascum.net, when used on an active role belonging to a player of any Town or Mafia/Werewolf alignment. It causes the role to behave as though it were roleblocked unless the target has a different alignment than the user.
Roleblocked actions don't happen, therefore actions prevented by a Disloyal modifier don't happen.

@Ircher: can you confirm whether this is correct to your understanding, and also whether to your knowledge any mod errors have occurred during this game?

Answered via PM.
~Ircher

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 11:21 am

Ircher says it is correct and no mod errors have occurred so, yeah, Hoctac is pretty much 100% lying here.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:30 pm

In post 2498, Looker wrote:Why would scum!Hoctac perform a killing action on Micc if Micc is scum.

If Micc were a traitor, scum!Hoctac wouldn't necessarily know Micc was scum. But the fact that Micc is voting Hoctac now makes that fairly unlikely, as there's no point in busing if it just loses the game immediately.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 4:38 pm

In post 2498, Looker wrote:But what about
valoneast
Auro/Umlaut? It baffles me that Umlaut wasn't lynched yesterday.

I'm not going to lie, it baffles me too. In anyone else's position I would have most likely thought I was scum given the evidence clidd presented.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 5:28 pm

In post 2505, Looker wrote:Can I get one post with all the claimed roles and night actions?

Ame

was 1-Shot Cop and claimed the following results:

N1 -
brassherald
is guilty

Micc claims 1-Shot Bulletproof Traffic Analyst with the following results:

N1 - Looker cannot communicate privately
N2 -
Ame
cannot communicate privately
N3 -
Blatant Scum
FireBringer cannot communicate privately
N4 - Umlaut cannot communicate privately

FireBringer claims Combined Follower-Tracker with the following results:

N1 - farside22 did nothing
N2 - Looker did nothing
N3 - Umlaut did nothing
N4 - Hoctac shot at Micc

Hoctac claims Disloyal Even-Night Vigilante with the following actions:

N2 - shot Ame
N4 - shot Micc

Note that the only way FireBringer's

and

Hoctac's claims can be truthful is if Micc is scum, since actions prevented by a Disloyal modifier don't actually happen for a Tracker or Follower to see.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:27 pm

In post 2508, Auro wrote:Micc was gambiting.

In post 2509, Auro wrote:Looker, Scumlaut, I think this is a mislynch. Please vote Micc.

I know I'm town and I'm as close to 100% sure FB is as I get without mechanical confirmation, which means from my perspective Hoctac has to be scum given that neither you nor Micc is taking the opportunity to hammer. So no I'm not changing my vote.

You'll need to expand on 2508; what's the nature of Micc's gambit?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:28 pm

pedit:

In post 2512, Umlaut wrote:neither you nor
Looker
is taking the opportunity to hammer.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:32 pm

So you believe town's set of PRs is a 1-Shot Cop and a Disloyal Even-Night Vigilante,

and

Micc is bulletproof scum,

and

FireBringer is a scum PR able to detect that Hoctac shot at Micc?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:35 pm

In post 2514, Auro wrote:Fire cleverly claimed the track+follow when he saw Hoctac vigging you.

This doesn't sound like you're suggesting Fire merely inferred that occurrence from the lack of a death.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:38 pm

In post 2329, Firebringer wrote:and if this flips green do u still want this order?

In post 2330, Auro wrote:Then Hoctac.

What happened to this? Because it seems a lot like what happened is Micc didn't die last night like he was supposed to and thus you can no longer expect to push a lynch on me tomorrow after busing Hoctac today.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:43 pm

Reminding me of something you did that I found to be a scummy last-ditch attempt at gaining town cred probably isn't going to help me feel better about your slot.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 6:50 pm

@Looker

With Auro holding the hammer you must realize that if Auro is scum then Hoctac must be as well. Vote Hoctac?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:05 pm

In post 2035, Hoctac wrote:Okay, let's talk about clidd!scum scenario. He would get a mislynch on Umlaut today, and then rely on us trusting him in 5p LyLo, in order to get a game winning mislynch in the hood probably. clidd + Looker/Bla would make most sense if he's going for an all out win. Zulfy + clidd are probably disaligned with how clidd is okay with a Zulfy lynch and Zulfy is currently gunning for a clidd lynch, it seems too risky if there ends up being any takers for either.

Scum would have to be very weak in PRs for this to make sense though. Am I forgetting a town PR? It's only Follower + 1-shot Cop otherwise, right?

So this is a vanilla slip. A town PR doesn't make this post at this point when we have already called for a mass claim.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:21 pm

Almost want to just vote Auro here and watch him try and explain why he's not quickhammered after his two townreads vote him, but I'm only about 90% convinced it's not Hoctac+traitor.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:25 pm

In post 2532, Auro wrote:Looker... Umlaut can't be scum. {Auro+Umlaut} means I simply hammer Hoctac for the win. He's town; Micc and Fire are the scumteam.

I love how this reasoning assumes I would have to be scum with you in particular.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:43 pm

Moreso than my disbelief in the universe Auro is describing I just don't believe that anything between 2451 and 2501 could have suddenly convinced him that Hoctac was town.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:48 pm

Well, if Micc and FB are pulling the luckiest, most implausible gambit I've ever seen then I'm not about to deny them their scummy.

VOTE: Auro

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:53 pm

Firebringer wrote:No.

Auro can still be dipshit town and Micc could be the traitor. Or even Looker Traitor.

We go for the most sure thing right now which is Hoctac!scum.

We will know tomorrow if its Auro

I know deep down that you're right but it sure felt good.
VOTE: Hoctac

@Micc

If you've been reading can you do me a favor and post pretty much right now?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:53 pm

(That's L-1 again but I'm pretty sure everyone knows that)

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:58 pm

In post 2530, Micc wrote:If this is going to be a 2v2 I’m not really willing to engage in an argument to convince the other side they’re scum.

If umlaut/looker want to engage I’ll be around to respond

In the universe where Micc is a traitor, this would pretty much 100% be him hinting to Firebringer that if a chance presents itself to team-hammer town he will be around for it.

I just provided that chance and FB declined it.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:01 pm

I could leave my vote on you for longer if that will be more convincing?

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:03 pm

It's also

incredibly obvious to anyone paying attention at all

that if FB and Micc were going to conspire to frame someone today, it would be me.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:09 pm

In post 2590, Auro wrote:
In post 2587, Umlaut wrote:It's also
incredibly obvious to anyone paying attention at all
that if FB and Micc were going to conspire to frame someone today, it would be me.
Exactly, which is why they wouldn't.

This is the shittiest WIFOM argument I've ever seen. I don't hold it against you because I'm pretty confident you're just caught scum putting up the best defense you can, but it's shitty nonetheless.

If you were town you would definitely vote me in that situation, don't say you wouldn't.
So would Hoctac.
So would Looker.

None of you would think twice about the PRs showing you exactly what you already believed anyway.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:34 pm

Honestly watching Auro squirm is rapidly going from entertaining to just sad. The sooner we put this team out of their misery, the better.

Umlaut · Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:39 pm

Firebringer wrote:how do we get looker to stop voting auro and to lynch hoctac to end this game

I made the point earlier that if Auro is scum then Hoctac has to be scum or else he'd be lynched already. I think Looker believes I'm scum more than he believes Auro is, though, so I'm not sure if that will drive him to vote Hoctac specifically.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:28 am

In post 2666, Auro wrote:So, uh... I went and checked my role PM again... I'm a Cop, I missed it. :X

Roll Will save to disbelieve, DC 5

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:29 am

Can I please vote Auro now

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:35 am

Agree to fast night, if Ircher actually does those.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:54 am

pagetop!

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 5:59 am

Auro, you should cop yourself tonight, maybe you misread your alignment as well as your role

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:21 am

The Day 4 replacements honestly wrecked scum here. I can't say I'm not proud of myself for deducing the setup but it wouldn't have mattered if I had gotten lynched yesterday.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:25 am

I feel a lot better now about not really understanding most of Auro's setup spec reasoning.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:31 am

I half thought Micc was traitor just because bulletproof traitor made more sense than bulletproof game-winning town PR. I'll be curious to see the review thread when it's released.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:46 am

Sorry about lynching you yesterday, Zulfy, even though I think it was the right thing for me to do in the end.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:48 am

In post 2741, Firebringer wrote:
In post 2738, Quick wrote:Why did you guys let Hactoc just skate by?
he bribed me with a cheeseburger.

You are completely pardoned, this is an excellent reason.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:52 am

I still don't understand why you got lynched, SirCakez

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 6:58 am

In post 2739, Auro wrote:The main problem was that you had a public review of such a setup where you broke the same meta rule, which means our weapon of "oh, but meta!" WIFOM holds no weight when someone sees that (as Umlaut did).

I honestly believe Ircher just never anticipated that anyone would go looking through past setup reviews to meta-read the mod like that (he can correct me if I'm wrong here). I've never been in a game where anyone did that before.

Umlaut · Wed Jun 03, 2020 7:04 am

In post 2759, Auro wrote:@Umlaut: Yup, and I am surprised people didn't buy it even after you linked that review thread. If I were town I wouldn't even bother solving, I'd just consider that solid evidence and vote within the hood till I hit scum.

I believe that you think you would, and maybe it's even true that you would, but you are a bit biased by the fact that you already knew my conclusion was correct when reading the case.