Open 778: Nightless Vanilla [Game Over!]

[Isis]

Go for it

[Isis]

Elements do you really think I'm scum or are you just townreading people who are saying they think I'm scum?

[Isis]

If Looker is town you're probably going to be a 3p Decider so you can't afford to turn your brain off about GC and HEM.

[Isis]

The thing with HEM's play is he keeps interacting with people in acting in such a way as though it seems he can't possibly have an agenda. Like he's too wandering. But his play both holistically and in nuances screams a loud pervasive desire to not die, to not be killed. That's the Survivor tell, and maybe nightless brings it out in people somehow or other because this characterization reminds me heavily of both my nightless scumgames. Green Crayons never gives off a hidden nor forthcoming desire to survive. And when I say holistically that includes the lynches pursued, with HEM shelter in Ali and Isis tunnels and making promises to get lynched for being wrong that he's confident will be townread.
GC is on record with viewing a link between Deimos and Firebringer but HEM's quicklynching has less meat and butter to it that's independent of speeding up the end of a game he needs to end before he dies.

[Isis]

like we're probably about to lynch someone else who doesn't try that hard to not die in Looker, but he didn't have all that much ability to. GC has always had a middle of the road position with regard to surviving this game and has always squandered it taking really little responsibility for busses, not egostroking his supporters or shading his detractors.

[Isis]

I want to read some GC games later to see whether it's idiosyncratic that GC acts like this. He could be kind of like MariaR or whatever.

[Isis]

hem if you want to stop this readshift you would be admitting to a strong desire not to die and convincing me it's not that AI for you, not one word shading me

[Isis]

I mean I guess you don't care I guess you're going to kill me but I think Elements might deadsheep me at least a lil

[Isis]

Elements you like me right remember that time we played fusion, I didn't mislynch you, it was all the great times.

[Isis]

Yes, use your deathtunnel to occlude your alignment again rather than be required to engage with the game in a risky way the way GC, Elements, and even Looker have done

[Isis]

If you are town you should not play like this

[Isis]

For someone not leading the town "anymore", you have done little I remember to be a source cause for any scum getting lynched this game. GC's VCA was damning to votato OR norwee, and it looked bad that votato was picked first but now knowing that his partner was someone as poor as Deimos it doesn't seem like he could afford even the OR

[Isis]

I've moved to El>GC>HEM>Looker after the victory lap clinching things but I'm trying hard not to get married to it before I have time to read this weekend/next week but I'm not doing a great job with that

[Isis]

Elements do you really think I'm scum or are you just townreading people who are saying they think I'm scum?

I think it's Looker and we'll never have to lynch you.

It could very well be one of those games.

I like your vote but I want a long day phase

[Isis]

[Isis]

I'm a lot closer to wanting to watch friends reruns, but I will do some rereading tomorrow, maybe.

[Isis]

I just heard six gunshots but idk if it's related. Seems more likely than not I guess.

[Isis]

I opened this game to read it tho not just one-line
I owe it to ALI

[Isis]

joins the battle, but not really

i'm simulating >3 multi-iso by skipping posts that aren't from flipped scum or living players

infinite multi-isos when

[Isis]

i didn't mean to quote that
that was in my multiquote list because it seemed a bit overreactiony
I'm tling some other interactions maybe tho

[Isis]

joins the battle, but not really

norwee scum and if he actually flips scum im calling isis town
also monkey is probably town

reading pg 4 now

deadsheep this pls

[Isis]

multiquote shouldn't work like that I already did that quote once augh

[Isis]

Look at Cycle men’s ISO. LOOK AT IT.
If that slot is town then i can safely say gg. We lost.

This post has lots of dispositiveness to it. Norwee had negative attention from just Alisae (and I think FB?) when Norwee shaded Cyclemen and voted him in his previous threadvisit. After that threadvisit, HEM, GC, and *cough* Isis and FB if that wasn't the case already express negative sentiments towards the slot. Norwee goes on to make this post, which appears to be antispew meant to bolster Cycle men's status. That means it's more likely that a greater number of the people on the wagon were all town, because Norwee is more likely to perceive he is in the process of dying if it's an all-town wagon rather than if there are scum on the wagon that would be overly willing to unvote. This means it's more like it's just Looker and we're agonizing over it or that it's Elements and townreading Elli is errant

[Isis]

dispositive isn't a normal ppl word i'm too drunk to think about normal people words burden of thesaurus should happen to sober people

[Isis]

this and the following post look pretty bad for monkey

[Isis]

btw i will be trying to follow the votecount status by hand, I have nsg on ignore because she thinks unicorns aren't real

[Isis]

I hypothesize that in any game with daytalk, pronoun imprecision gives people tiny percentage points against being aligned, and haven't seen hard counterproof yet. I wonder what people think about that in general

It'd be at its weakest here since Deimos as of this post thinks I'm a secret alt so it could be a male or enby main account but I'm interested in the topic regardless, there might be other instances in this game.

[Isis]

That's softened by nonbinaries being pronouned correctly the least from the starting line. It's data though. In particular it's useful data because I didn't really imagine a mafiosi would ask to be mispronouned to seek wincon, I would think people wouldn't do that.

[Isis]

ok i read a lot more and didnt see stuff to comment on and now i'm getting sleepy

[Isis]

hem rolling town is hard
i'm hoping to read more tomorrow with less sleepy
similar to what gc said if you are victory lapping man is it aggravating

i had some thoughts on elements but none of it amounted to enough for a post, my read there hasn't changed much

[Isis]

I'm not sure whether I'll have the motivation to reread more

A major takeaway from my reread

Is that I am not confident about this 5p and I want to deadsheep Ali's GC townread.
His VCA and stances are so weird if he's scum anyway.
And I know that scum tried to antispew bus because confirmed scum did it to eachother, in a circle, but scum never pushed GC that I recall.
Actually that observation maybe means Elements should be lynched

[Isis]

I'm leaning back towards HEM being the other player permitted to survive the game. But maybe it should be Elements. I'm less confident now.

[Isis]

my spicy take is i really want gc to survive this game

[Isis]

I have all sorts of theory opinions about this topic I'd want to say postgame but I'm not sure whether they serve my wincon right now.

can you explain this now?

I sure can, it's pretty moot with votato dead. I strongly feel the best strategy in nightless is to push the easy mislynches and leave strong players alive. Lynching strong players will be very hard, and the harder a lynch is the more you degraded your standing in pushing it through. Additionally, in endgame players are going to naturally trend towards paranoia on those slots.
The idea that you need to lynch strong players to win the nightless game is flawed. If it is a nightless game that scum are going to win, the best townies won't be on their A-game. Strong townies on their B-game are still hard to lynch, and are still at their most perceptive when they are reading a push they know is on town (themselves). They aren't as deadly if you pocket them or leave them in your PoE and push them gently in the ending scenario.

Votato is a pretty new player so I think he could benefit somewhat from this spiel, but I didn't see much upside on the other side of it.

[Isis]

oh happy birthday

[Isis]

How come there's not a detailed description of the sun setting and me turning into a vampire bat and slipping out of my noose and fluttering away to live another day?

[Isis]

VOTE: Elements

[Isis]

This was my top townread before but I just wonder if I'm reading the tea leaves backwards.

His read progressions don't make sense and seem backwards.

In his iso he seems to give reasoning when he voted townies and just vote when he voted scum. I think it looks like level zero poor associative play even if his independent play looks pretty townish this game.
I don't think he voted me here as town when looker is so easy to lynch and I've "pocketed" him. It seems like he needed game acceleration badly enough that he'll break character because he was utr for a moment in his life.


I'm still on the position that townreading green Crayons has more value than anything else in my sort.

Cause Ali said he's town and I believe in em mostly. I independently feel like that too, most flipped townies have not scumread him. Please let him survive this game. It's a deserved win if he has a red pm

[Isis]

Looker why do you think Green Crayons is the scummiest player after monkey?

[Isis]

VOTE: Indium, Iodine, and Iridium

[Isis]

Why do you think I'm scum?

[Isis]

my role PM doesn't have Norwee, Deimos, or Cycle Men's name in it; look at the way I interacted with those players.

[Isis]

What took you so long?

[Isis]

This setup is really hard for scum

[Isis]

What do you mean?

[Isis]

That was @GC

[Isis]

Don't lynch GC no matter what, you owe me that monkey. Listen to your own words, your reads have been shit all game, please deadsheeo some teammates

[Isis]

GC was already lock town and this looks a little difficult to fabricate

[Isis]

Ali and I are outvoting fb. Actually Ali, I, and pastFB

[Isis]

I made you townspew even further GC.
Mafia involves being mean to win more

Even as town

[Isis]

Concern with HEM might be paranoia

I think it's worth evaluating whether hem should die.
My biggest thing is don't kill gc

[Isis]

I guess my raw chance of winning is 66% if my GC TR is right
I'd have a lot more if I didn't get lynched for being on every scum lynch in nightless lel

[Isis]

Seeing "Isis was Vanilla Townie" from NSG will make my heart sink. NGL.

Will it
Or will it be the second time she confirms it to you

[Isis]

I'm not sure monkey

[Isis]

I was wondering allowed

[Isis]

I don't ask people questions just to deliberately continue to read them a certain way but sometimes I wonder aloud

[Isis]

I think you spent too much time doing the types of reads where you make a confident guess at how many times a player would swap wine on something? It's less reliable than other methods of reading although it is better than rand.

[Isis]

This game was modded well

[Isis]

Isis is very town and never getting lynched

[Isis]

That was my favorite scum PT I ever read. I love you folks.

[Isis]

Thanks for not lynching GC monkey

[Isis]

you better be bluffing

[Isis]

Hard agree with this

Hectic I'm sorry nsg didn't give me the forcereplacement I deserved so you could play this one.

[Isis]

Me too, this one

[Isis]

Also I didn't post during the game because I thought it'd seem scummy, but a large component of lynching Firebringer is that if he was willing to accept a draw in 3p LyLo, then he's just as much of a threat to my win condition as scum, and he had more chance than zero of flipping scum.

I wasn't very surprised for him to flip town.

[Isis]

I was hoping to make at least one person laughter and I made Deimos laughter so it was a good gambit

it also kind of ended RVS super quickly and stuff?

Nightless is in fact very hard for scum. I think setups with one or two nightkills per game might need to see more daylight, though. In theory you can set the player counter to whatever scumsided EV will counteract the advantages that nightless gives the town; this setup has much more unforgiving EV than something like a closed normal.

As agonizing as it's been for me to roll scum in nightless in the past, getting suspected by an obvtown player I could not remove from the game seems like it will never be as frustrating as getting investigated as scum, so, that's something I think about and maybe it's a lesser of evils.

[Isis]

It was a good take

[Isis]