Micro 945 | CultD3 | Game Over!

[Deimos27]

VOTE: Mohab
Four way tie it is

[Deimos27]

Hey Norwee, what kind of play can I expect from you this game?

[Deimos27]

Hey Norwee, what kind of play can I expect from you this game?

You can expect it to be totally radical.

You should effort really hard so I can have you locktown based on Open 778 meta.

[Deimos27]

VOTE: norwee

Norwegians are policy lynch material. They're always scum even when they roll town.

How do you feel about Finns?

[Deimos27]

Hi everyone! This is the other half of Oromis. Dk and I made this hydra together basically just for fun. I've never played on a hydra account, so it should be an interesting experience. I think Dk will be the main person you guys will be talking to during the game, I'm going to let them do most of the posting and take more of a backseat, but I wanted to at least introduce myself. Both Dk and I started playing forum games on EpicMafia, which has a great but pretty small forum maf community. I'm still relatively inexperienced, but I've had good games as town and as scum--this is the first time I've ever rolled cult leader, though!

What are everyone's favorite foods?

- Joqiza

I hate all food. Why take a backseat?

[Deimos27]

Mohab is scum but she's inadvertently pocketed me by building profile picture and username rapport.
UNVOTE: Mohab
VOTE: Oromis

Spoiler:

[Deimos27]

I strongly recommend against opening that spoiler.
The picture is disgustingly low resolution.

This is why I don't meme.

[Deimos27]

I hate all food. Why take a backseat?

I like the idea of just sort of hanging out in the background, reading over the game and giving my thoughts to Koba. I can have a strong thread presence if needed, but generally they're pretty good at inciting reactions and getting material.

Our avatar is from the book Eragon, it has a dragon rider and their dragon. Think of Koba as the rambunctious young rider and me as the wise, mysterious dragon.

~joq

Promos have a scummy head those paragraphs give me the willies.

I don't know what "promo" means here but I agree with the sentiment

[Deimos27]

Norwee wagon sucks

[Deimos27]

Norwee wagon sucks

What if we Wagon you?
Would that suck?

If I am widely scumread and wagoning me will help you sort me as town, then I accept this outcome.
But if either of these premises returns false, a Deimos wagon would fmpov indeed suck, since I know I have 0 scum equity.

[Deimos27]

I barely understand any of 63

[Deimos27]

Drew and Norwee do be resonating with me tho

[Deimos27]

Norwee you seem to have a history with Mohab. What do you think of them so far?

[Deimos27]

I also don't understand what about my entrance they didn't like.

I too would like elaboration on that point.
There's a lot in 67 I dislike.

And by similar vibes i mean:
- They are intentionally screwing with the vote count to tempt an accidental hammer.
- Playing suicidally like they don't care about being scumread.
- Lot's of emotions, reactions, voting in a seemingly careless manner.

Oh dear. Oh dear oh dear.
No amount of cute anime profile picture can redeem how much I hate this playstyle.

@Mohab, please confirm the accuracy of this assessment. Can you assure me that you'll make a fair effort to play to wincon this game?

[Deimos27]

Re-reads take note:

Seems there's some weight to the association
scum!Norwee -> scum!Mohab
and its contrapositive
town!Mohab -> town!Norwee

This is because I don't see that much equity in scum!Norwee making this early effort to interact with town!Mohab and establish them as having a scummy meta, since he'd be harming his own mislynch prospects for the slot. On the other hand, if they're scumpartners, it's very logical to improve Mohab's lynch resistance in this way.

[Deimos27]

please confirm the accuracy of this assessment.

Not adressed to me, but here's a link to me and their last game so you can make your own assessment.
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=83102

I'll take a gander in the morning. Would like to hear Mohab's own take on her playstyle and its rationale.

[Deimos27]

I'm intentionally not weighing in on 79 (and the clarified 63) just yet.

[Deimos27]

I only just now realised that cult leader is the only member that can recruit.
Was confused about how this setup isn't insanely scum-sided.

Might affect my take on the Norwee/Mohab interaction but I'm too tired to think about it any more tonight.

[Deimos27]

Well, I thought about it a little and I think I am going to start a personal challenge of playing the entire game seriously. So yeah, I'll try not to throw the game, hopefully.

I do understand that motivation can be fickle. I just wanted to know that I can trust scumminess to be broadly unintentional.

I only just now realised that cult leader is the only member that can recruit.
Was confused about how this setup isn't insanely scum-sided.

Might affect my take on the Norwee/Mohab interaction but I'm too tired to think about it any more tonight.

Don't see how this might matter. Explain please?

I can explain for them because I understand where they are getting at.
A Cult Leader is more important then the other Cult because it can convert.
Thus Cult Leader try’s harder to stay alive or is more needed to stay alive.
As Cult doesn’t want to lose their CL.

Thanks for the explanation, but I still don't understand how this might affect how they might view my interactions with Norwee. Probably will wait for them to respond though.

Basically the strength of the association varies depending on whether Norwee were to flip cultist or CL and depending on how many times cult have decided to swap wines.
As votato and Drew have rightly pointed out, we're most likely better off avoiding more detailed discussion of this D1.

Howdy Porkens, I am glad you like my sense of humor.....a lot more where that came from.

That's why you sounded the alarm right, the funny dude alarm?

Oh you, we will get along just fine.

But, if I may be so bold to ask, walk me through the issue you have with your issues with the Deimos post?

Yeah scummy dude alert that’s right.

I think the play style discussion burns oxygen and creates smoke to hide behind

No need to beat up on us less proficient scumhunters for wanting to ensure people are playing to wincon. I'd rather

not

have to deal with possible lynchbait townies in a gamemode where scum is sometimes incentivised to act scummy.

[Deimos27]

Weird VC, usually early-game meta is wagon happy.

[Deimos27]

Anyone online?

[Deimos27]

How long will that take? I'm interested in a chat.

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Porkens
Let's try this one on for size

[Deimos27]

you're saying thats CL vibes when you're interacting with a hydra of which I myself will be actively posting. Seems to me you are just looking for a reason to needlessly shade me. Want to explain further since yours is the most recent and clearly a serious vote?

-Koba

For real though, I agree with this. Feels like Norwee was just needlessly trying to shade Oromis or just start scum reading people for whatever reason.

UNVOTE: Probably too early for a serious wagon, but so far not really liking Norwee's entrance. Rest seems decent I guess? haven't looked in depth, porkens please talk more!

Let's talk about this post.

1. Do you see logic behind Norwee's Oromis vote? Don't explain it, just let me know if you see any.
2. If not, how do you feel about the rest of the Oromis wagon?
3. What all do you dislike about Norwee's entrance?
4. I would expect these comments to come accompanied with a Norwee vote. When is it time for a serious wagon, if not ASAP?

[Deimos27]

Ok Norwee you can explain your Oromis vote in more detail now because I'm pretty sure we're roughly on the same page about this but I want to make sure.

[Deimos27]

Ok Norwee you can explain your Oromis vote in more detail now because I'm pretty sure we're roughly on the same page about this but I want to make sure.

Repetition of "sure" = yuck

[Deimos27]

Fortunately not. I hate playing scum. As you may have ascertained from the Open 778 mafia PT.

[Deimos27]

I feel liberated.

[Deimos27]

Are you scumreading me, votato?

[Deimos27]

Good plan.

[Deimos27]

Well, I don't know about votato but I know I want to be culted. Unlikely as it may be, hope still resides within me.

I want to be culted if and only if cult is almost certainly winning.

[Deimos27]

Is it?

Hold up let me check my role PM.

[Deimos27]

Is it?

Hold up let me check my role PM.

Ok yes, that favours my wincon.

[Deimos27]

I like Drew and I'm starting to feel alright about Oromis too. Norwee is ok if he responds to my above query in the manner I expect him to.

[Deimos27]

Actually the one thing I want elaboration on from Drew is how on earth he came to a votato townread based on 3 fundamentally contentless posts.
Other than that I've been very resonant with him on Mohab/Oromis.

[Deimos27]

I dig it.
+town Drew, +town votato

[Deimos27]

You understood the refutation they offered, right? The slot itself can't be said to be sitting back when only one head intends to be inactive.

[Deimos27]

I was getting the sense that Koba prefers TSE as a CL candidate but opted to vote you because Joq agreed with it more.

[Deimos27]

So not necessarily arguing that you're trying exceptionally hard to fly under the radar.

[Deimos27]

You understood the refutation they offered, right? The slot itself can't be said to be sitting back when only one head intends to be inactive.

Yeah i got that.

Ok, I've misunderstood you then.

The reason I voted Oromis is that I think it's anti-town for the head that perceives himself less competent to be handing over the reins to the other head and keeping his reads undercover. Hydrae can be confusing but they're also helpful for town when played correctly because you get double the chances to sort the slot. It's ok to be less active, or to largely sheep his fellow head, but I'd prefer that Joq maintain high transparency to enhance the readability of the slot.

[Deimos27]

I thought you were basically saying the same thing. That CL!Joq would try to stay off the grid cause he doesn't trust himself not to give the slot away.

[Deimos27]

There's a world where 67 is a scumslip because everyone else was confused about 63 but Mohab instantly knew it was referring to Norwee no questions asked.

[Deimos27]

Do you have reads other than Oromis, Norwee?

[Deimos27]

That it would.

[Deimos27]

On second thought that seems extremely unlikely because it would mean 79 is a lie and Oromis knew all along who made 51 and discussed it in scum PT.

[Deimos27]

I'm not yet sure I'm defending you, Norwee. Weigh in on 152-153; how much of it entered your decision-making?

[Deimos27]

Cause all that is more or less what I was expecting of that explanation I asked for.

[Deimos27]

how much of it entered your decision-making?

Alright i'll reveal my secrets.
I've played in a hydra with Hectic while rolling scum. I noticed that i left a lot of the talking to him while just taking a backseat and meme-ing in the main thread. So that made me think maybe they are in a similar situation as i was.

Good, then I'm defending you on that point at least.
I was slightly put off by Mohab's and Oromis's reactions cause they didn't seem to pick up on this logic, which I thought was relatively straightforward. Just an annoying lack of resonance.

[Deimos27]

Btw have you clicked that Polka button on my signature yet Deimos?

Hell. Yes. Here, let me do you one better:
Ievan Polkka

[Deimos27]

Re-reads take note:

Seems there's some weight to the association
scum!Norwee -> scum!Mohab
and its contrapositive
town!Mohab -> town!Norwee

This is because I don't see that much equity in scum!Norwee making this early effort to interact with town!Mohab and establish them as having a scummy meta, since he'd be harming his own mislynch prospects for the slot. On the other hand, if they're scumpartners, it's very logical to improve Mohab's lynch resistance in this way.

This read, while thoughtful and concise, feels useless. The logic, when split into parts, makes sense, but intuitively, I think about the games I've played, and it doesn't quite seem to line up with reality. I've seen 1) scum defend town in this manner all the time, if they so feel the towncredit they'll gain is worth it, and 2) I actually doubt scum would risk building this sort of association with their partner so early in the game.

Though I have a 2016 join date my experience is rather limited (2 completed games as town, 2 completed games as scum), so I admittedly rely on my own theoretical constructs perhaps overmuch. I did say that the strength of the association varies depending on who is cultist/cl, because if it's CL!Mohab then it's of such utmost importance to keep her alive that it's very natural to expect cultist!Norwee to do so, while if it's CL!Norwee and cultist!Mohab the natural survivalist emphasis of the CL could mean they shy away from allowing such an association to form, as you say.

Also, just kind of something I'm thinking about, this sort of association/world-building seems kind of fruitless in a setup with conversion roles, where the read may not hold from day to day. Like, I'm disinclined to do this sort of thing before a flip anyway, but in a cult setup it feels particularly meh. This is my first time with a cult in forum mafia though, so won't pretend like I'm an expert.

I know some people frown upon pre-flip associations but as tells I find them so much stronger than normal scumhunting that I've always liked pointing them out as I see 'em (less work to do in later days as well). You're right that in a gamemode like this they will lose applicability situationally, so it's gonna be less helpful.

We could always just hit scum today so we don't have to worry about whether they were the N1 convert.

[Deimos27]

joqiza is not sortable early on regardless

~~ I'm mostly bouncing ideas off him and we're sorting slots ourselves. i.e. I'm the ego, he's the analysis.

He's going to be easily dwarfed by my posting habits so I believe that is why he said that

-Koba

I don't know you and I don't know Joqiza, but this is a very bold claim.

[Deimos27]

VOTE: Votato

sorry but the energy in this game is much different than votato's town games I've played with him in. this is my personal CL read atm based on the awkwardness so far.

we feel a little better about norwee. joqiza can probably elaborate on that(I think he did in his last post).

I've only played one game with votato but I see this awkwardness you refer to vaguely at best.

[Deimos27]

I h e a bad feeling about today. Pretty sure any hour now scum is gunna start a push on me.

No it’s just this eddying of the initial post wave typically typically starts pulling me toward the abyss. It’s just what I’ve noticed over the years.

AtE + preemptive discrediting = profit

[Deimos27]

I h e a bad feeling about today. Pretty sure any hour now scum is gunna start a push on me.

No it’s just this eddying of the initial post wave typically typically starts pulling me toward the abyss. It’s just what I’ve noticed over the years.

AtE + preemptive discrediting = profit

So is this just a flat bad post as town?

Your post? I don't know if I'd call it bad. Not sure if it's scummy either. It's just annoying, cause it shades every townie that currently thinks you're a fine wagon, myself included.

[Deimos27]

i think mohab oromis and deimos are likely all town here

Mohab has definitely gotten much better since promising to effort.

[Deimos27]

i think mohab oromis and deimos are likely all town here

Mohab has definitely gotten much better since promising to effort.

174 is a funny example of resonance for me because I had the exact same gut reaction (that votato/Drew is probably TvT but possibly SvS) before realising that I have no actual logical reason to discount TvS, and so kept my mouth shut.

[Deimos27]

(2 completed games as town, 2 completed games as scum)

Which ones did you win/lose? I know you lost once as mafia.

The others were wins.

[Deimos27]

"you want people on the record saying why you're town" is such loaded phrasing it makes me recoil

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Drew

I've played this setup before so have some insight into it. i have a bit of insight into how this is likely to play out, but im not sure its worth talking about in detail since scum might not be aware of their optimal strategies here, and I dont want to give them free info.

It was purely based off this post.

I don't think cult would put it out there that they know the optimal strategy. If anything I think cult would play dumb about strategy.

Also, reading it also reminded me not to talk strategy, that in and of itself was indirectly a pro town move by vovato. Typing this out it sounds weird lol, but his post just screams pro town.

Drew and votato exchange is nice. I feel it's probably Town/Town, but there is a small chance it could be Scum/Scum, could probably reevaluate this in later days if we remember for shit.

you think no chance of TvS though?

Bro, did you just scum claim?

But seriously, This post from Mohab really looks like filler. Like 'I better start providing content to look townie'.

The context is someone with a memey playstyle trying to actually gamesolve. This reads no more like posturing to me than it does like an earnest though unsuccessful effort at gamesolving.

Spoiler: Porkens

I’m busy RN but before I go.

@Porkens
Why is Drew Lean Scum?
(Sorry if I missed it!)

That “couldn’t you tell I was joking?!” post is classic scum in my experience

So......people who take rvs votes 'seriously' are not scummy to you?

Being serious about RVS votes is not scummy.
Getting defensive about someone taking your RVS vote seriously is scummy.

I hate this defensiveness tell with a passion because I tend to be defensive as well and it has resulted in me getting scumread as town. I don't buy this unless you have meta supporting the idea that Drew only gets defensive early-game as scum.

Spoiler: Oromis

...

I know some people frown upon pre-flip associations but as tells I find them so much stronger than normal scumhunting that I've always liked pointing them out as I see 'em (less work to do in later days as well). You're right that in a gamemode like this they will lose applicability situationally, so it's gonna be less helpful.

Sure. If that's your style, and you make it work for you, then I don't have a problem with it. Thanks for explaining further.

We could always just hit scum today so we don't have to worry about whether they were the N1 convert.

We'd only have this problem if we're in the setup with the regular cultist, right? Maybe I'm misunderstanding something. If we lynch a cult PR, they'll flip as cult PR, right? So there's a chance that we could still know tomorrow if we hit the N1 convert, if we hit a cult goon and we end up in Setup A or B.

I'm probably misinterpreting, but I just can't help but wonder if you slipped that we're in setup C.

~joq

I wasn't really thinking about the different cult roles when I posted that. Just pointing out that a cult flip on D1 will always give accurate D1 associations, while a cult flip D2 might not.

[Deimos27]

Norwee y u no vote

[Deimos27]

@Mod

, how long until Kaif gets replaced?

[Deimos27]

Porkens is opportunistic as fuck VOTE: Porkens

The thing about this vote...
Is that it's pretty opportunistic.

[Deimos27]

Drew having some pretty bad takes recently. All that lovely resonance we were building just draining away.

[Deimos27]

In general

[Deimos27]

TSE, thoughts? I'll compile my reads and probably write a full post tomorrow.

I’m not 100% Confident but I think Deimos and Norwee are TvS.
Although I’m getting Town vibes from Deimos because a lot of the stuff he said comes off honest and genuine.

Votato seems to be relaxed and laid back taking middle ground. Which scum does do.

Tell me more about Deimos/Norwee TvS.
Votato is pretty relaxed as town. Also not sure how much more middle ground he's been taking this game.

[Deimos27]

Cus i'm still waiting to see if Kaif is going to play the game.

Don't see why Kaif's absence should prevent you from voting.
Have your thoughts developed regarding Drew and votato?

[Deimos27]

Of course. So while Kaif is gone, you should be trying your hardest to get a proper read on every slot that

is

playing. Voting != lynching.

[Deimos27]

There are two seemingly competent slots voting votato and two seemingly incompetent slots voting Drew and I'm sat here trying to figure out how it reflects on me that I'm now leaning towards Drew.

[Deimos27]

Are you saying that makes you incompetent?

Potentially. In general I feel very uncomfortable being on the same wagon as Porkens and votato.

[Deimos27]

Both votato and Drew read like potential CL slots but I don't really buy the behavioural cases from TSE and Oromis yet.

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Drew

[Deimos27]

Norwee you can share that cult game meta now.
I got nothing better to do.

[Deimos27]

I'm getting real paranoid about your slot.

[Deimos27]

Votato is pretty relaxed as town. Also not sure how much more middle ground he's been taking this game.

Upon reflection on this and a brief glance at my last game with votato, I think I'd be more inclined to suspect him for having too

many

reads, rather than taking the middle ground. 176 is the post that pinged me the most cause he didn't signpost his progression so it felt a bit TMI on the spate of tr's.

Still a minor point imo.

[Deimos27]

Drew/Votato are decent competing wagons.
VOTE: Votato

What exactly makes me a decent wagon?

Your post 203 for starters.

It made me low-key puke a bit.
But it's Votato, what do you expect.

One of these things is not like the other

[Deimos27]

[quote="Porkens"]Yawn. Partners./quote]
No amount of yawning will change the fact that defensiveness is NAI in a vacuum.

[Deimos27]

RIP formatting I suck

[Deimos27]

Explain the mechanism as to how Drew's defensiveness is scum defensiveness rather than town defensiveness.

[Deimos27]

This is exactly the thinking that's almost gotten

me

mislynched.
I've always felt that defensiveness is first and foremost a personality trait. Also note that avoiding a lynch favours both scum and town wincon.

You might be right that it's probabilistically a slight scumtell, but you'd need statistics or a more convincing mech.

[Deimos27]

Well, no point arguing about this right now. We both agree he's a fine wagon for the time being.

[Deimos27]

Your tell is rubbish but whatevs m8

[Deimos27]

Why is votato town?

[Deimos27]

Thank you Koba.

[Deimos27]

The thing that was concerning me about Norwee was this passiveness in abstaining from voting/questioning people, not really doing analysis. It felt similar to his scumplay last game.
Briefly scanning through those cult games has made me feel a bit better that this is within his townmeta.
291 is not a great take though.

[Deimos27]

I will say that I think his tone is less adversarial than in that scum game. Could of course be testament to the playerlist or gamestate.

[Deimos27]

This norwee is very different from the scum norwee I saw recently.

Can you elaborate?

I have no experience with scum tato but he’s voting with me so he must be pretty town here

Why is voting with you a towntell?

[Deimos27]

I figured out how I'd describe the tonal difference I sense in Norwee.
He actually seems to be having fun this game.

[Deimos27]

I get the feeling I'm really not gonna gain much from talking with you Porkens.

[Deimos27]

Clidd replaces Kaif!

Analysis time i see.

Ooooh I hope so

[Deimos27]

Y'all should scumread me more so I don't get culted.
I s2g if I get culted.

[Deimos27]

TSE, thoughts? I'll compile my reads and probably write a full post tomorrow.

I’m not 100% Confident but I think Deimos and Norwee are TvS.
Although I’m getting Town vibes from Deimos because a lot of the stuff he said comes off honest and genuine.

Votato seems to be relaxed and laid back taking middle ground. Which scum does do.

Tell me more about Deimos/Norwee TvS.
Votato is pretty relaxed as town. Also not sure how much more middle ground he's been taking this game.

After the interactions within Drew, Porkens and Votato.
I’m more inclined that it contains 1 scum rather then your interaction with Norwee.

Btw TSE, do you not think there can be two scum in Drew/Porkens/Votato?

[Deimos27]

Does anyone have a read on TSE yet?

[Deimos27]

Mohab what's your read on Drew?

[Deimos27]

Yessss I love this playstyle.
I haven't even gone through your arguments yet but I can already tell that I like you, clidd.

[Deimos27]

I mentioned already that votato's progression into 176 was what pinged me most about the slot, so I resonate with that point.
The case on TSE I'm more ambivalent about.

[Deimos27]

My pet theory for a while here has been that this is Drew + votato with votato as CL (hence his willingness to bus Drew).

TSE just hasn't said enough for me to rule him out and I have lingering doubts about the way Norwee has interacted with me.

If clidd is town here I sense great things in our future.

[Deimos27]

The main qualms I had with Drew were his Porkens vote in 230 and his comment on Mohab in 216, both of which were so bizarre to me I had trouble seeing them from a townie perspective.

[Deimos27]

Oromis, now's a good time to give your read on TSE if you have one.

[Deimos27]

My pet theory for a while here has been that this is Drew + votato with votato as CL (hence his willingness to bus Drew).

I will note that I was starting to consider this already back when I voted for Drew, which may seem odd seeing as I thought votato would be CL, but because the theory is so speculative, I opted to just vote for the player I thought had stronger

independent

reason to be scum.

[Deimos27]

I'm off to bed now. Really interested to see how things develop from here.

[Deimos27]

A mislynch won't end the game but it will send us to LyLo tomorrow. The problem with 5v3 is that we need all 5 town on the same wagon to lynch, which is a pretty tall order.

[Deimos27]

To lynch cult, that is.

[Deimos27]

I absolutely despise the lolhammer from Porkens but if he's town he never gets converted and it's exactly the scum modus operandi to go after him here.

[Deimos27]

Max 3 cult mechanic

[Deimos27]

Is it overly WIFOM to surmise that even if Porkens is cult he's not the CL after that hammer?

[Deimos27]

I haven't re-read D1 cause I've been too busy wallowing in self-pity about the fact that all my towngames have stupid lolhammers years before deadline is due.

I'll do that a little later.

[Deimos27]

Dramatic

[Deimos27]

A friendly neighbour kinda message or a cop kinda message? Or is this currently a secret.

[Deimos27]

Well, needless to say, any town PR that is not tracker or jailkeeper should cc this

[Deimos27]

If a friendly neighbour gets culted the same night they try to use their ability, does it still resolve?

[Deimos27]

How so?

[Deimos27]

Drew converted cult would be pretty eh since he's been under suspicion. I expected an Oromis convert tbh. Strong, charismatic, townread.

[Deimos27]

That was addressed to Mohab. I can definitely see something like Drew + TSE base cult yesterday. I was especially unfond of the reasons TSE had for townreading Drew.

[Deimos27]

Actually with Porkens + votato town the Drew wagon looks a lot better. Votato sort of emerges as the counterwagon.

[Deimos27]

Like gee I wonder why scum didn't touch the Drew wagon. I believe its maximum size was Porkens + votato + Deimos

[Deimos27]

I wonder about the possible strategies mentioned prior because they could help find out the convert. In any case, I stil think Drew-Oromis-TSE have one cult in them, I don't like the wagon rush this way.

Yep, I can see that.

[Deimos27]

VOTE: Drew
I'ma go here for the time being.

[Deimos27]

Don't you think Oromis has high converted cult equity? Checks with his TSE hard townread if you're going off that association.

Reason I thought CL!Drew was likelier than CL!TSE was because of the TSE townread on Drew. I thought CL survivalism entails distancing with the cultist, rather than strictly defending them. Furthermore, TSE was on the mislynch, while Drew was not (iirc), which again checks with Drew being the CL.

[Deimos27]

Note that I'm still using "cultist" as an umbrella term for the second cult. I am not scumslipping.

[Deimos27]

Also while defensiveness is not a scumtell per se, a lack of scumhunting tends to be. I don't believe Drew got any better during the latter half of yesterday in terms of the scumhunting. When you take his defensiveness in context with that point, maybe it checks with CL survivalism again.

[Deimos27]

I'm still phoneposting though, I'll come back to do my re-read in a few hours.

[Deimos27]

Inb4 the Norwee + Porkens + converted Deimos theories come rolling in

[Deimos27]

Hammers are scumclaims until otherwise agreed. See you guys later now.

[Deimos27]

UNVOTE:
I'm chillin' for now. Cultist quickhammers are a thing.

[Deimos27]

Since deimos wants to seed doubt about us, im gonna out what we know:
tse is CLEAR of being OG cult(assuming they arent CL who no culted n1) They visited no one

Thats why we softed him as town.

We think that we are actually in the rolestopper. It makes no sense for porkens to visit norwee here as FN. His claim is bullshit and we definitely already have culted PR.
Keep the wagon on porkens.

Since FN resolves even if culted I assume tracker also resolves even if culted. So you would know this information even if you were culted last night.
The way you've phrased this is as if it dispels the doubt I expressed about you.

[Deimos27]

We could well just be in B1. I am

very

skeptical about scum converting Porkens so I don't think we have to worry very much about that outcome.
The cases where this is Porkens + Norwee scum is when it's JK + tracker or rolestopper + tracker and scum hit the JK/rolestopper.

[Deimos27]

Even if thats the case thats a NAI fact about their meta. Its just a dumb gimmick in that case to cover up ones scumplay. His D2 start+ the shit claim has more solidified the read on him in my eyes -Koba

If it's his meta to lolhammer that definitely makes it NAI. This logic makes no sense.

[Deimos27]

I'm gonna need you to relax, Oromis.

[Deimos27]

I wanna see what TSE and clidd make of this

[Deimos27]

Porkens can you explain why you chose Norwee for your FN target? I don't know what kinds of thought processes go into choosing that but you must've thought about it.

[Deimos27]

I understand tunneling a pet theory but the ferocity is way over the top.

Yeah I've seen town tunnel a lot but this level of certainty is so weird compared to the previously calculated nature of Oromis I can't help but suspect some hard AtE derailing manoeuvres from the N1 cult convert.

[Deimos27]

I will say that I'm also open to this Norwee + Porkens idea but I'm just generally very uncertain rn so I want to relax, re-read, and wait for clidd/TSE.

[Deimos27]

Kaif has not picked up his Role PM and is being replaced!

I'm gonna chime in here with a pro gamer read, which is that the clidd slot is town.

This is because it took way too long for the mod to replace him. So long that I think he didn't even notice someone hadn't posted yet until I pointed it out. And I doubt that would happen if the player is scum. I think scum PT inactivity would give it away earlier.

[Deimos27]

I assume I'm not breaking any rules by speculating based on mod behaviour.

[Deimos27]

It does, doesn't it?

[Deimos27]

May as well have my vote doing something while I wait.
My next pro gamer read is VOTE: Norwee

[Deimos27]

I will explain when I get to my laptop

[Deimos27]

Ok so the main part of my case is Norwee's positioning on the votato lynch. Please bear witness:

Spoiler: The Calm Before The Storm

So the setup is this interaction with him right after Drew vs Votato:

Cus i'm still waiting to see if Kaif is going to play the game.

Don't see why Kaif's absence should prevent you from voting.
Have your thoughts developed regarding Drew and votato?

I take note of Norwee's weird lack of presence and gamesolving. I ask for his Drew and votato thoughts, since those are what's most relevant given the gamestate at the time.

Deimos, you haven’t played a cult game before right? Getting a proper read on every slot is vital to victory.

Norwee's reaction is to slightly discredit me and then argue besides the point. Note how he abstains from commenting on Drew and votato.

Of course. So while Kaif is gone, you should be trying your hardest to get a proper read on every slot that

is

playing. Voting != lynching.

I push further, but Norwee never reacts to this point, despite being present, as he does respond to my following joking comment:

There are two seemingly competent slots voting votato and two seemingly incompetent slots voting Drew and I'm sat here trying to figure out how it reflects on me that I'm now leaning towards Drew.

Are you saying that makes you incompetent?

What's important is that the whole time Norwee's comments seem weirdly succinct and dismissive. He's there but he's avoiding attention and abstaining from gamesolving or taking a stance on votato vs Drew, even after I call him out on it. Ok, he does eventually figure out what angle he wants to push, but it's weird how he doesn't do that immediately while making reference to my push. An example of a town response I expect would be to say "I'm indecisive so waiting and watching for now". Norwee doesn't do this.

His choices regarding what he responds to and what he ignores seem unnatural and self-conscious.

This comes from scum because their ideas aren't spontaneous but come as forced positions that they

choose

to push. This reads like scum!Norwee who doesn't know what position to take yet so is ignoring the issue.

Spoiler: Norwee Makes His Push

Drew/Votato are decent competing wagons.
VOTE: Votato

His phrasing here isn't that he necessarily scumreads votato. It's that he thinks the wagons are "decently competing". This suggest that he's setting up some kind of wagon analysis. Instead, his following comments make it seem as though he has a strong scumread of votato. If he scumreads votato, why wouldn't he say so in this post? Why wouldn't he make the case? He tries to get his vote off without explaining it here. Just as he doesn't explain why he votes votato, he also doesn't explain the comparative case as to why voting votato is

better

than voting Drew. He makes no comment on Drew. (He doesn't know what stance to take yet!)

Drew/Votato are decent competing wagons.
VOTE: Votato

What exactly makes me a decent wagon?

Your post 203 for starters.

This "for starters" continues selling that he's confident about votato. But this makes no sense because his prior positioning (e.g. "decent competing wagons" stuff noted above) reflects

uncertainty

. But calling out 203 comes off as major post-decision justification, because look at what his initial opinion of votato's comment was:

Drew/Votato are decent competing wagons.
VOTE: Votato

What exactly makes me a decent wagon?

Your post 203 for starters.

It made me low-key puke a bit.
But it's Votato, what do you expect.

One of these things is not like the other

209 makes some sense, cause I too was feeling that this is just standard votato weirdposting (though his phrasing with "what do you expect" did make it feel a bit TMI on town!votato), but then turning around and calling it scummy is completely inconsistent with the initial point. The votato push looks incredibly forced.

How is that a OMGUS?

You took a shitpost i made semi seriously pointing out a post of yours that pinged me, and used it as justification for voting me

How was i supposed to know it was a shitpost? Or that you’re just spinning it that way?

Just a bad take. There's no way you spin votato's comment into being scum-AI. These are not the resources town draws upon when scumreading votato.

Finally there's this:

God i’m really tired. But gotta react to this. Good wagon on Votato. I’ll pop champagne on cult flip. Night.

My initial (town) reaction was to be extremely annoyed at such a premature hammer. Contrast that with Norwee continuing his "ah yes I am super confident about scum!votato" stance, which makes no sense in the context of his prior positioning and what he was in practice pushing. This "good wagon" stuff pings me. Everyone and their mothers could tell that hammer was awful.

[Deimos27]

Now I recognize that I could be completely off-mark but I want to see people's thoughts on this.

[Deimos27]

Sorry, but I have to chime in since this is directly mod related.

But I tried to give Kaif the full 72 hours before replacing him

Confirmation - You have about 72 hours to confirm your role and your alignment by PM. Game will start sooner if everyone confirms. Posting in a private topic counts as confirmation.

Ok I guess my read doesn't apply then. I was thinking it was 48 hours.

[Deimos27]

In the meantime, please no random wagons/hammers like yesterday, disheartening to wake up to see I've been totally excluded from the wagon/hammer/thinking process because of my time zone, so would be nice.

Can I get a

big mood

in the chat.
Out of the last 4-5 lynches in games I've participated in, I've been asleep for all but one.

[Deimos27]

Yeah he mistakenly thought today was lylo cause he didn't realize there's max 3 cult.

[Deimos27]

I feel like Mohab is still town. Which means my initial speculation about the Norwee/Mohab association was flawed.

[Deimos27]

I would like TSE and Drew to effort today if possible so I can get a better read on these slots.

[Deimos27]

More power to you Oromis, but I can't know that you've not been culted. In which case this could easily be a fake result on TSE.

[Deimos27]

Oromis you should vote Norwee. Porkens isn't CL even if he's cult.

[Deimos27]

On second thought he could well be CL in the Norwee + Porkens instance. But nonetheless, you should vote Norwee with me for now.

[Deimos27]

The ol' "I'm back"

[Deimos27]

He returned 2 hours ago, unless I am very bad at maths.
I've had my location there for a while. Well before this game started.

[Deimos27]

Yeahhhh I don't really like TSE + Drew anymore.
One of them being scum feels likely though.
I'm surprised you townread Oromis's aggression. I see the Porkens push as opportunism 101.

[Deimos27]

Oromis is Tracker and Porkens is the other PR known as FN.

I think Norwee and Drew are scum and Deimos/Clidd is their buddy.

So how does that work w/ Drew and Norwee being the only two players I've pushed this D2?

[Deimos27]

More power to you Oromis, but I can't know that you've not been culted. In which case this could easily be a fake result on TSE.

Yeah but if that was the case we would both have to be scum.
Not just me, as this would require them to be converted.

I can see you as base scum and I consider Oromis to be most likely convert.

[Deimos27]

Why don't you think Oromis would be the convert, TSE?

[Deimos27]

If I were scum I would've converted Oromis > Deimos > clidd/Norwee/Mohab. I am not scum, so it's either Oromis, or scum had

very

different priorities compared to me.

[Deimos27]

In the first game, he tunneled me as town and forced my claim (I was PR)
In the second, he tunneled another player and played in a crazy way (he was town too)

I only see him as scum if the way he is playing is to indirectly convince me that he is town by meta, expecting me to use the behavioral association as an evaluation criterion. Or, he was converted and is still within his town playstyle/mentality.

Do you have experience with scum!Koba to contrast against this aggressive townmeta? I struggle to townread him for tonality while his positioning looks scummy.

[Deimos27]

Also converted Oromis is exactly what I'm pushing. I think he was probably town D1.

[Deimos27]

The only world where TSE is cult is if with Oromis, unless TSE is just a goon(I believe that is a possibility in the matrix?). but alot of chips would have to fall before we kick the tires on that theory......for know a tentative obvtown.

Obvtown is a pretty bold way to put it. Can you walk me through why you discount every other partner for TSE?

[Deimos27]

Why don't you think Oromis would be the convert, TSE?

Never said I didn’t take it into consideration?
I just said that the most probable choice of conversion would be you and Clidd because you are both strong Town players.

And Oromis isn't a strong town player? He seemed stronger than myself D1 and was also almost universally townread, while clidd would've still had work to do since he only got out a few posts.

[Deimos27]

Now I recognize that I could be completely off-mark but I want to see people's thoughts on this.

Weird thing to say after you brought up so many points.

I'm wavering between complete conviction and severe doubt about your scumminess. There are too many question marks in Drew/TSE/clidd.

[Deimos27]

ideally I'd rather lynch someone who is town over a non cult leader bc then cult leader cannot taint another slot going into lylo. ofc that means we need to find cult leader tomorrow.
cult leader > town > cult PR > vanilla cult is the lynch preference order. call me crazy but the convert limitation of 3 works into this. (also I'd rather win with town as winning with cult would feel too easy as a PR here)

-koba

Like this post though.
Cult leader is the top priority today. As if we get a cultist they can just recruit a new dude immediately.

This post is literally IIoA I don't know why you like it. Assuming by "like" you mean tr.

[Deimos27]

I'd have gone for a suicide gambit if I got converted as PR here via a fake guilty, getting into lylo with 4 scum slots is ideal.
-Koba

You mention the fact that there's max 3 cult in 574. Why are you back to talking about 4 scum slots?

[Deimos27]

Tracker doesn't get guilties, but I appreciate the possibility of you faking something regardless and will consider if that should impact upon my read.

[Deimos27]

Anywho, Drew and NorwegianboyEE are most likely the Cult team.
We can handle the converted player after.

If you think so, why not vote Norwee with me? His willingness to bus Drew rn sort of implies CL!Norwee > CL!Drew.

I feel like there's not actually that much opposition to a Norwee wagon rn (apart from Porkens) but I'm still all alone on it which makes me awfully suspicious.

[Deimos27]

I almost forgot about the votato wagon analysis.
I still think scum!Drew makes a hell of a lot of sense when assuming a D1 town!Porkens because of the shape those wagons took. It was

votato (2) - Oromis, TSE
Drew (3) - votato, Porkens, Deimos

until Norwee and clidd rallied to votato. Since we know votato was town (and assuming town!Porkens I know that the Drew wagon was all town), the logical way to read this is that Drew is scum and votato blew up as a reactionary counterwagon.

[Deimos27]

Mohab too

[Deimos27]

Are you townreading D2 Oromis?

[Deimos27]

633 wasn't rhetorical. I do expect a response.

It looks like classic scum deciding it's time to manufacture reads with a poor forced reaction to an NAI post.

[Deimos27]

Speaking of IIoA the part in 619 where you say that catching CL is top priority pings me big time. You don't say.

[Deimos27]

Making a good point> Town motivation.

The fact that the only way you can make that implication seem sound is by obfuscating someone commenting on the favourability of outcomes we don't care for anyway based on the nature of the setup to "making a good point" speaks volumes.

Assuming you're still talking about Oromis there and ">" is equivalent to "->".

[Deimos27]

Deimos do you have reads for other potential cult leaders than me? Who are they?

I can see a world where it's CL!clidd. Maybe CL!TSE is still possible. I don't like CL!Drew anymore because of how easily his wagon got to L-1 at the start of today.

[Deimos27]

Otherwise, i suggest you take a step back and look at Oromis and TSE interactions. I think there’s something to consider about that and their weird attack on Porkens just for hammering a wagon.

The thing I've considered about that is Oromis was probably converted. Drew was also on that wagon which makes me like him no more.

[Deimos27]

And yeah TSE might be scum too but out of that trio I doubt 3/3 cause of distancing.

[Deimos27]

Mohab too

I never voted porkens, that was apparently a mod error, no?

Nah I'm saying you might be down for Norwee wagon.

[Deimos27]

Making a good point> Town motivation.

The fact that the only way you can make that implication seem sound is by obfuscating someone commenting on the favourability of outcomes we don't care for anyway based on the nature of the setup to "making a good point" speaks volumes.

Assuming you're still talking about Oromis there and ">" is equivalent to "->".

I fet the impression you’re conf!biasing on me right now. I don’t even know what you’re saying and why a hasty comment i made on a post would make me scummy.

I might be confbiasing you. I wasn't making the point that your post is scummy, though. I was emphasizing how flawed the logic is.

[Deimos27]

You've phrased "someone commenting on the favourability of outcomes we don't care for anyway based on the nature of the setup" as "making a good point" to make it sound more palatable as town-motivated, is what I'm saying.

[Deimos27]

But well, you've said you don't tr Oromis so it's a minor issue.

[Deimos27]

Do you buy my wagon analysis, Norwee? Who do you think was scum on votato wagon?

[Deimos27]

TSE, I take it, since you're voting him. What do you think of clidd?

[Deimos27]

Clidd, isn't TSE + Drew actually still possible if TSE is the CL? Scum loses nothing from bussing today, as long as the lynch isn't CL.

I don't quite remember why I discounted that possibility earlier.

[Deimos27]

Clidd, chime in on 663 and 638.
I feel like Drew is basically confscum because of D1 wagon analysis but unless scum is pulling some white flag gambit the speed with which he got to L-1 at the start of today casts some serious doubt on him being the CL.

[Deimos27]

Koba can we

please

be cordial?
We established that a quickhammer is not outside Porkens townmeta. I also happen to generally like his play today. However, I accept that there is a possibility of Norwee/Porkens. I do scumread Norwee independently of the Porkens association, so our viewpoints aren't in that much conflict with each other.

Do you disagree that the premises town!Deimos = True and town!Porkens = True entails scum!Drew = True based on the wagons yesterday?

[Deimos27]

Deimos, IIoA is not a single post, please come back to reality instead of shading us for making a point that most town would not have been able to grasp.

is there any reason you're on the shade wagon for us suddenly?

That post is not meant to be shading you. I'm calling out Norwee for townreading something I interpret as NAI.

[Deimos27]

Ok, but if both Porkens and I were town yesterday, do you think that makes scum!Drew very likely? Or are you more inclined to believe that scum preferred not to touch his wagon and pivoted for votato due to undisclosed reasons?

[Deimos27]

Ok thanks, clidd. I like this analysis.
Since CL!TSE is

only

possible with scum!Oromis (because of the track result), we can rule out Drew being the third partner because it doesn't make sense for Oromis to push town!Porkens rather than scum!Drew who would then allow a favourable convert the next night.

[Deimos27]

Oh yeah and also TSE/Drew/Oromis clumped voting at the start of the day is definitely impossible. So we can conclude not!(CL!TSE ^ scum!Drew).

[Deimos27]

The key is to remember CL!TSE -> scum!Oromis, which I believe slipped my mind there.

[Deimos27]

(scum!TSE ^ CL!Drew) <-> (TSE plays a white flag gambit by putting Drew L-1).

So if the two are scum it's only in this case, which is a probability that's a bit harder to evaluate. I'd rather set it aside for now and look for a different scumteam.

[Deimos27]

Nobody's contradicted my wagon analysis so I'm still working under town!Porkens -> scum!Drew, though for the rest of you the inference is (town!Porkens ^ town!Deimos) -> scum!Drew. And these are D1 alignments I refer to, ftr.

[Deimos27]

Who do you think is the best play to pressure next, clidd? Your vote is idling.

[Deimos27]

Spoiler: Oromis 63

VOTE: mohab

Clearly a try hard trying to act townie, dominating the game with nothing but noise.

Plus your avatar is creeping me out.

Oh God no, Epic Mafia? Mohab, you are forgiven.

VOTE: Oromis

going from a semi serious vote(one with concrete reasons) to a flimsy reasoned vote? wa


also mohab latched onto what joqiza had told me... after he did it.. was a purposeful scumslip. There's not much content to go off of but I don't like Mohab's tone so far.
you're saying thats CL vibes when you're interacting with a hydra of which I myself will be actively posting. Seems to me you are just looking for a reason to needlessly shade me. Want to explain further since yours is the most recent and clearly a serious vote?


also we are at L-1, not L-2.

will be busy tonight so joqiza may be participating but tomorrow i'll be back after work.


Also I think the rest of the wagon is pure from first impressions.
-Koba

I don't think anybody was really suspecting Oromis of being D1 scum but I will note that there's a theory that scum is hyperaware of their scumbuddies, meaning that Oromis's confusion about Mohan vs Norwee here implies that they are probably not og scumpartners with either of these players.

[Deimos27]

It’s Drew and Norwee.
But your probably the Convert.

Spicy take. Why am I the convert?

[Deimos27]

At the moment, I'm in doubt about Mohab. I would like to see his views on the issues raised today. I feel that his entry at the beginning of D2 was more expressive in the sense of resolving will, as if suddenly the interest in joining the game had increased, compared to the more relaxed posture in D1. I am also surprised by the lack of significant paranoia about my slot, considering that in our past game I was scum. Another point that bothers me is that nobody is paying attention to this slot, and I want to be able to distinguish it before moving on.

No worries clidd, you're one of my main suspects, which is why I'm sort of pushing for your opinions here.

I'm ignoring Mohab a bit mainly cause I townread them D1. I also think they've played alright so far D2. There's a chance that they're the convert but I'll consider that as an aside to my CL hunting.

[Deimos27]

It's pretty spicy for TSE to expect the scumteam to be Norwee/Drew/Deimos with CL!Drew when he's who Norwee and I instantly ganged up on at the start of the day.

[Deimos27]

Norwee/Drew/Deimos just doesn't check.
Because, spoiler alert, I'm still town.

[Deimos27]

I feel like we just lynch Norwee and Drew, and if neither of them are CL, it's wp to cult and we go next.

[Deimos27]

I feel like we just lynch Norwee and Drew, and if neither of them are CL, it's wp to cult and we go next.

Like don't get me wrong, I'm not trying to be defeatist here.
The associations are just so confusing with all the potential conversion and PR fakeclaim interplay that I want to go back to basics and lynch a slot I scumread independently of everyone else. That person for me is Norwee.

Almost everyone has Norwee in their lynch pool one way or another but the wagon won't manifest for some reason. This should please Oromis (we can always potentially lynch Porkens tomorrow if Norwee flips not-CL scum). This should please TSE (we can always potentially lynch Drew tomorrow if Norwee flips not-CL scum). If it flips town, even that gives us a lot of info (e.g. clears Porkens of being OG scum and probably of being scum altogether because why would he be the convert). Clidd thinks Drew + TSE is unlikely (and I'm inclined to agree) so I'd expect Norwee to be sneaking his way into clidd's lynch pool too. You seem to like it as well, Mohab.

So why don't we at least wagon him already?

[Deimos27]

@Mod

, since lynches are compulsory, will plurality rule at deadline if no majority has been reached? If plurality rules, what if the wagons are tied?

[Deimos27]

I look forward to these thoughts, clidd.

There are two ways to read Norwee switching from Drew to TSE. The surface level analysis is that this makes CL!Norwee + scum!Drew less likely, because the expected behaviour from CL!Norwee would then be to get Drew lynched. But go one wine swap down the chain and you get to Norwee moving his vote in order to make Drew look more CL and himself less CL, since he knows people are speculating Norwee/Drew.

Then there's always the chance that TSE is the converted scum and he's simply swapped one favourable wagon for another favourable wagon. I don't know

why

they would've converted TSE before Oromis/me/you but I guess there's the possibility that they read him as PR.

[Deimos27]

Then there's always the chance that Drew wagon simply dried up and he's just decided to try elsewhere. That reasoning is pretty brittle though.

[Deimos27]

I'm currently considering

CL!Norwee
+ scum!Drew
+ converted!TSE / converted!clidd

for the scumteam.

I don't see a Mohab convert in this team given how he's now voting Norwee with me. Oromis pushing FN!Porkens rather than Drew is relatively unlikely if he's the converted scum. A Porkens conversion is just generally very unlikely because of how suspicious the slot would've looked.