The Great Vote Count Analysis (Pre-Discussion)

[yessiree]

50% accuracy is really not tho, you can flip a coin and get basically the same results

also ego

[yessiree]

I believe you can still get some meaningful patterns. I think skitter's idea of representing the votes in a graphical model sounds very promising, I wonder if we can finally do some quantitative analysis on busing (I have some ideas on how it could be implemented in networkx https://networkx.github.io/)

[yessiree]

I finally got around to writing a program that makes graphical representations of votes. I'm hoping this will help get things moving forward for the great vote count analysis.

Anyway, the games I scrapped are from the archive here
viewtopic.php?f=53&t=29549

The repository
https://github.com/blookvoodow/VCV

more information can be found in the README file

You can easily generate these graphs yourself as well without any programming skills, you just need a little bit of knowledge running NodeJS and Python scripts

Open to suggestions/comments on how to present the data better

Here are 5 examples

Spoiler: graphs

[yessiree]

one graph is one game, you can kinda get a holistic overview of what happened in that game

I guess I should post the README here for ease of access

Node

Each node in the network represents a player slot in the game. Each node includes all the replacements to a particular slot.

Edge

Each edge in the network represents a vote cast from one node to another. For simplicity, edges are undirected, meaning if two players cross-vote one another, only one edge will exist between them. However, edges are more complicated than nodes since weights are attached to them.

Weight

As the network is weighted, the weight of an edge represents the severity of conflicts between two nodes. Since an edge presents a vote, and votes are used for pressuring or lynching a player, it can be interpreted that the higher the weight, the higher the degree of conflict.

Weights are calculated based on duration of the vote. The reasoning is that votes generate pressure and may or may not start wagons. Therefore, the longer the vote is cast, the greater the pressure and the degree of conflict between the two players. Of course, this may not always be the case, but our assumption is the voters will be forced to defend their votes when confronted by other players, and they will either retract their votes or keep their votes as a result.

Weights are measured in milliseconds and normalized by 1 hour.

the labels on the nodes

L = lynched
K = killed

and the they are followed by the time of the incident, so
L d 1 = lynched day 1
K n 1 = killed night 1
endgamed, survived and won should be self-explanatory

a solid edge can be interpreted as the two nodes having a lot of conflict and interactions
a dotted edge means the two slots barely voted each other

[yessiree]

Spoiler: 1

in this one, scum got steamrolled.
you can see two "clusters" by looking at nodes whose edges are solid lines. one includes the mafia that got lynched d1, two townies were on him consistently, and another townie was pressuring one of the two, but he somehow got nightkilled
the scum that got lynched d2 didn't really focus on anyone, never placed his vote on any slot for a long period of time

you kinda look at it like this

pedit: I believe the games are in the same order as the archive posted by implosion here
viewtopic.php?p=11775190#p11775190

[yessiree]

actually no, scratch that, these got mixed up when I uploaded them to imgur

mini normal 2081
2082
2085
2076
2080

[yessiree]

also, why did you choose to assign weights in {length of irl times that has passed}? my first instinct for the weights would have been maybe how many posts the vote was on the person

it was easier to grab the timestamps of the posts and compute the difference, but post count difference is also doable I suppose

[yessiree]

graphs can be easily generated. I just didn't wanna do it since I wanted to get some feedback on the samples first

im gonna change time delta to post count delta and see what happens

[yessiree]

Changelog:

• changed weights for a single vote to be total post count instead of total time
  
• Added game # to title
  
• split weights into 5 categories, 800+, 500+, 150+, 30+, and 30-
  
• Misc style changes

Spoiler: actually deliver on promises Pog?

[yessiree]

i can't tell yall how much i wish i had time for this

maybe you should consider reducing scope/deliverables cuz this looks like a classic case of scope bloat