Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[Nash]

What's up?

I'd appreciate it if someone can give me an unbiased tl;dr

[Nash]

That's L-2. What's the case?

[Nash]

L-1

My bad, I meant to UNVOTE: Marashu
I'll read and post my thoughts later

[Nash]

R

E

A

D

S

Spoiler: votato

I'm actually kinda surprised why they ended up in a lot of your townpools. No RVS vote was placed (scummy), and I don't find anything in their ISO which gives me town pings either - 70% of it is just fluff. I'm gonna need someone to explain their TR here. The only vote ever placed was on superbowl, and I don't like that at all.

Spoiler: Midari

The self vote (44) is suboptimal scum play since it's anti-town and will be scrutinized at some point. I think scum!Midari would have pondered upon this, so the defensiveness in (76) gives me weak town pings (since it was only RVS). I'm not sure why she had a TR on votato at that point, and I'm not satisfied whatsoever with the justification in (139), but this behaviour pings me as town for a strange reason I don't want to discuss. I think the vote progression from this slot is pretty natural and I disagree with the implications of (392) and (411).

Spoiler: Deimos

Strikes me as the towniest so far, although some of his reads don't really resonate with mine.
In response to (62) and (145), I'm curious to hear his thoughts on vota.
What causes the townlean on superbowl and Worcestershire (237)?
Why is word suspicious?

Spoiler: Worcestershire

Placing naked votes and failing to pick up on BM's humour in (169) are probably results of a greater cognitive load, which is likelier to come from newbie scum under pressure. But I have no idea of his meta so the read is weak. Why is the slot being townread?

I'll post my reads on the rest of the playerlist later.
VOTE: votato for now.

[Nash]

hmm its interesting that 3 posts after i vote midari nash somes in and defends midari and then says he hasnt seen my vote on midari and at the same time also attacks me and votes me. very hmmmm!!!

I was typing it down when you voted
I don't find your Midari vote inspiring.

[Nash]

VOTE: midari

What's your case?

[Nash]

Player List
piisirattional
Battle Mage
Marashu
Deimos27
votato
ceejayvinoya
brassherald
superbowl9
Midari Ikishima
Worcestershire
word321
Doctor Drew
Tuxedo Mask

and about the hider thing, a quick way to do it is the hider aiming for the player next to him on the player list; that way, everyone has a possibility of being hid upon, assuming uniform distribution (the odd of a hider being behind u given u r not the tracker is 1/12)

yes its very good at protecting the hider (ish), scum still have plenty of info though. and it completely nerfs the investigative power of the hider. thats a bad plan. scumpoints to you, because i think your mechanical play is better than that

I was about to give him townpoints for this. In case of the Hider's death, their investigative power is useless if we can't tell where the hider was in the night(s). What better strat allows us to deduce alignments on such occasion? There's really no disadvantage afaik and the 83% cop capability with public results sounds really nice.

[Nash]

and it completely nerfs the investigative power of the hider.

why? he dies upon contact. how can that be nerfed? its literally unavoidable as scum

because random targeting limits the potential. we only have like 2-3 investigations. we should investigate the scummiest people.

Does this really come from the votato in 469? You do realise that having conftown is +EV?

[Nash]

Words town with a bad vote.

I take that back.

What cop capabilities?

Also word why is there a tracker and not a vig?

No death confirms a town. I'm assuming the existence of a tracker too, choosing tracker over vig feels better for town to me. Especially in this setup.

[Nash]

Personally, I'd prefer diversity over gut feels.

[Nash]

Personally, I'd prefer diversity over gut feels.

by diversity you mean randomness, right? generally gut feels are pretty useful. thats the whole point of this game, innit?

You're right. But scum can go for the most popular hide target, which is bad for the hider

[Nash]

Yeah, I think the Midari wagon is lame. And I don't like votato and brass in it.

[Nash]

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

[Nash]

Fluff, lack of scum hunting, tonal gutpings, weird unvote and change of tone on BM, weird pressure vote on me, being pretty inactive himself given he is the top wagon

[Nash]

Re: BM unvote
I mean, this is pretty sudden and drastic. I will give you that. What makes you think this comes from scum though? A drastic change in stance often comes from town reevaluating things, or seeing a sudden town motivation behind a slit which had been missed or masked prior to this! Heck, I could point to a game which just wrapped up last week where this happened to a read on me after being deathtunneled for like 6 game days! We were both town, he just came around on it all of a sudden!

Could it be scummy? Maybe. But town are far more likely to reevaluate a slot than scum are and it looks like they had no need to reevaluate BM here.

Re: Weird Vote; Inactive
Their posting is about middle of the road in frequency and being a lead wagin doesn't mean they will suddenly post more as any alignment. And is this a bit of OMGUS too?

They should definitely be arguing for their life and making a case for one of the other players as a counterwagon. It is not the time for them to pressure vote. However would scum not be fighting harder here too?

Like, I don't see any scum motivation in these posts or points.
Do you?

"Coming around on TM" is a point in favour for Mara since it's bad for scum!marashu to townread a slot which has a lot of potential to gain traction, when he has been the top wagon for so long, but that's exactly the kind of play he can adopt for towncred. I haven't seen anything in TM's ISO (after Mara's vote) which gives me townpings so I can see scum motivation here for sure. I'm not making a point on his activity, placing his vote on me just for "pressure" when there's a lot of AI content shows a lack of scum hunting.

[Nash]

I still exist! I can consolidate the Marashu wagon if the top kill preferences are him and PP at this state.
VOTE: Marashu

THIS IS H-1

Do you still think

votato

Aristophanes is the scummiest?

Yes. I don't expect to see a wagon form on him though.

[Nash]

Have you seen their scum game and do you believe this is within their scumrange?

Because "this looks towny so it could be scum manipulation" is a tough sell.
I do think it is a great point that voting you there instead of providing content is potentially scummy. That said, why wouldn't they vote a counterwagon? Much like townreading a slot that could be miselimable (oof, that's clunky) makes no sense for scum, neither does a lack of campaigning for the elimination of a counterwagon over their own elim.

Would've been towny if it was a good townread. I don't think it is, hence scummy. Not going for a counterwagon makes no sense for town!Mara either, so I don't think it comes under the same logic.

[Nash]

Have you seen their scum game and do you believe this is within their scumrange?

Because "this looks towny so it could be scum manipulation" is a tough sell.
I do think it is a great point that voting you there instead of providing content is potentially scummy. That said, why wouldn't they vote a counterwagon? Much like townreading a slot that could be miselimable (oof, that's clunky) makes no sense for scum, neither does a lack of campaigning for the elimination of a counterwagon over their own elim.

Would've been towny if it was a good townread. I don't think it is, hence scummy. Not going for a counterwagon makes no sense for town!Mara either, so I don't think it comes under the same logic.

Sure it does, if Town!Mara thinks the other possible wagons (specifically PP I suppose) are town. As a VT in that case (I mean, odds are pretty good there) sometimes going down is better than potentially outing a PR with a counterwagon.

Town!Mara must have had some scumread to pursue

[Nash]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

[Nash]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

[Nash]

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

[Nash]

I actually think I like Nash's plan.

@Nash, so assume Marashu flipped town just now. What dies that tell you?

Gives me a bad outlook on Looker, Worce and you. But I like your unvote, so just the other two. I'd like to hear why PP has a townlean on Looker

[Nash]

Marashu has fakeclaimed before as scum so I really find no reason for scum!him to claim VT here, even after BM's 798. How is it +EV if we eliminate someone we think is most likely to flip town? And why is No Eliminating today a bad idea?

[Nash]

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

[Nash]

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

[Nash]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

I feel like you're trying to attribute a shitty idea to Battle Mage when he proposed the exact opposite. I want to flip Marashu more than ever now.

I was convinced by Mara's claim and I thought it would be best to not go for another elimination and risk losing a PR without any mechanical advantage (50%). That way we don't run up a bunch of people like BM said.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

What's the benefit of not voting someone out today?

I think Mara is town with that claim. Scum claiming VT instead of a PR when 798 was made is very anti scum. What's the benefit of eliminating town?

If you had claimed in Marashu's position, what would you have claimed?

If Mara is a VT, then I would have claimed VT. If Mara is scum, given that BM made a point about eliminating a VT claim, I would have tried to out a PR by fakeclaiming instead of dying without a purpose.

Spoiler:

I guess what's the benefit of not voting someone out over not killing Marashu anyways? I get the hesitation to not out PRs but like if you look at it logically if that's your hang up then no elimination should just be your stance day 1 or Marashu sort of must to die, right?

P:edit I think Marashu has a good chance to be town too, but with the logic that it's antiscum to not faow claim that means there is a very slim chance that trying to vote someone out day 1 doesn't result in the death of a pr, right?

Either you hit scum and they fake claim, likely outing the real pr.

You hit pr outing them.

Or you hit VT narrowing the the POE for scum. That's also assuming scum don't have some reason that they'd want to do a VT claim here.

I just mean if that's why you want to no elimination, I feel you should have always wanted it over any votes as there is no path that doesn't lead us here or to a dead pr. Scum aren't going to claim scum after all.

Makes sense, but having a VT claim at the end of the day is beneficial and most probable

Beneficial to whom? Other than scum who now know where to shoot for PRs?

To town, because I don't know why scum would claim VT in that situation. Scum would know where to shoot for PRs even if we eliminated the VT.

Spoiler:

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

You have a point about outing all the PRs. Still, it's sub optimal scum play to claim VT there.
VOTE: NO ELIMINATION is the best alternative because we can't risk losing mechanical info like you said.

No. This gets us no info and no info gets us beaten.

We flip Mara. The vt claim is fine.

If there is no good alternative wagon we stick it out at this point, even if they are town.

Knowing Mara is most likely town is good info by itself, I think? Treating Mara as conftown will force scum to kill him at some point, which is good for us.

You skipped a step - how do you know Marashu is anything? I don't get this gimmick of treating Marashu like conftown just because you don't want to flip him.

By conftown, I meant most likely to flip town.

No eliminating is almost always -EV in mafia, at least D1. This is the only time town controls who dies, and the only time there's a chance of killing scum. No eliminating denies so much info on the flip and surrounding wagon analysis. This is especially unacceptable to me since my playstyle relies on VC/wagon analysis.

This is actually very true. There's a 10% drop in our chances if we no eliminate today assuming mountainous even with a conftown.
I was wrong UNVOTE: NO ELIMINATE

You're backtracking because people aren't as dumb as you thought they'd be.

I was being dumb. I did not realize that No Eliminating on D1 was equivalent to a nightstart and didn't take into account we would be one step behind in terms of a maf win at parity. The idea was independant of my TR on Mara.

VOTE: Looker is who I prefer now

I'll allow you the opportunity to provide reasoning, but don't feel obligated. I'm fairly certain this is your way of saving Marashu.

Much unnecessary discussion in the last pages. I still have the view that Marashu is scum.

What confuses me is Nash's unvote and vote on me. If he and Marashu were partners, wouldn't he jump on PenguinPower? Unless they're all three scum?

I don't see any analysis/scumhunting in your pred's ISO. You're also the least towny in the Marashu wagon, who I think will flip town.

[Nash]

Also this no elim thing and Mara's claim being towny are absolutely ridiculous.

No elim has been talked about but the VT claim here is 0% town indicative. BM's view on a claim doesn't mean that other members of town (especially those who are not on the wagon already and are less likely to agree with him) will follow his thoughts. If you claim PR, you're trading PR for scum at some point in the game, which is obviously a numbers disadvantage. This whole thing is WIFOM anyways, there's no reason to respect a VT claim as townie, as doing so makes scum more likely to claim VT and get off scot free for absolutely no risk

But the number disadvantage looked inevitable, it comes down to possibly outing a PR or not for scum!Mara.

[Nash]

What's scum!me's agenda in voting for a NE?
There is a logical progression from 782 to 846. Self preservation was very unlikely (my point was unexpected) to not go for the optimal scum choice, so I think Mara is most likely to flip town.

[Nash]

Spoiler:

Done catching up, i have mara as light scumlean but i'd much rather have a penguin Execute there

Def holding off on a hammer until Gypyx gets a chance here.

I will get you that readslist D2.
I would consider a Nash elim reasonable though right now. That would be my preferred I think.

Why wait D2 to provide content? You're never sure if you're making it to D2, as if you

knew

you were making it into D2

I don't want my readslist to effect the nightkill.

Nightkill's over - what do you think?

Also - what do you think of Nash skipping over PenguinPower to vote me?

---

VOTE: Nash Welcome to Froppy, and I think Nash's failed bus and skipping over PenguinPower to attempt a counterwagon on me tells us that Marashu/PenguinPower/Nash are the scumteam.

Because I wasn't convinced by the case on Midari. Your slot seemed scummiest through town!Mara.

[Nash]

VOTE: Dr Drew scum

Why?

[Nash]

Spoiler:

...I don't want my readslist to effect the nightkill.

Nightkill's over - what do you think?

Also - what do you think of Nash skipping over PenguinPower to vote me?

---

VOTE: Nash Welcome to Froppy, and I think Nash's failed bus and skipping over PenguinPower to attempt a counterwagon on me tells us that Marashu/PenguinPower/Nash are the scumteam.

Because I wasn't convinced by the case on Midari. Your slot seemed scummiest through town!Mara.

So now that we know Marashu was scum, who are his partners?

---

• Assuming there's a mechanical solve as to why Doctor Drew is scum, I'd rather flip Nash now and flip Drew in the event BM is NK'd. I see no reason to sway my intent.

My best guess would be TM/votato ignoring the possible mechanical solve. You are still in my scumlist.
Why is skipping over PP scummy? Circular reasoning?

[Nash]

Tuxedo, where am I in your readlist?

[Nash]

Nash!

Even if I think that from a mechanical reason PP is a better hammer, I still think from a gut read that u r more suspicious, and seems that other ppl think so too. U jumped on Maras wagon when it was about to hammer; then u jumped out and went for the no-hammer argument. Then to looker. Saying ur behavior is unusual is getting short, and it seems quite erratic tbh.
But alas,

Let me help u help urself. Why dnt u give us a narration of ur thought process from when u voted Mara to the end of D1?

Suspects at the time, hunches, the reason u didnt go to PP and found it oportune to go for Looker; anything is valid. We r not interested in how good or wrong it was, but what u thought at the time. So the more details and reads on ppl (and reasons, if there r any), the better. Ur actions didnt rly seem random, Im sure u have some reason to have acted that way.

[votato, Mara, brass, TM, ceejay] were my suspects at the time and I thought the wagon on Midari was pretty bad.
There were points against Mara from a lot of angles (unlike Midari), so I thought the likelihood of him flipping scum was higher and the chances of survival were very low (why I bought his VT claim). At this point brassherald had a completely empty ISO and his slot was present on both the top wagons (both of which I thought were likely town). Aristophanes radiated a feeling of confidence which made me reconsider my read on votato, so I put my vote on Looker.

The no hammer vote is getting a lot of artificial weight on it, and I still think the VT claim was a bad move as scum. If these are the only points against me, Looker dropped further down in my readlist. I'll have to hear more from TM to decide where I should vote. I don't feel town!Midari as much after PP's claim.

[Nash]

why do u think looker is scum with mara rn?

Ignoring the Drew case? I don't like the shade on my read change on Mara and the additional weight on my no-elim vote. I think the push is bad faith.

why did u think midaris wagon was bad?

I wasn't convinced by the case (following the path with least resistance - against lurkers) since they expressed their townreads on the more active players. The vote progression didn't give me scum pings either. And I suspected the slot to be a PR.

has ur scumlist changed after the flip?

No. If BM's mechanical information is true, I may have to re-evaluate.
If Drew is scum, I don't want to push PP. Midari x DD interactions don't look like SvS.

I want to eliminate in {TM, Ari}

[Nash]

Replace it with "dishonest" then. I think my logic was sound.
If DD is scum, their interactions outweigh Midari's survival instincts IMO.

[Nash]

that's L-2 as well, so you may as well claim. then we are 100% eliminating either you or PP today.

VT

[Nash]

Agree with the hider list.
VOTE: PenguinPower if we aren't eliminating elsewhere.

[Nash]

VOTE: superbowl9

[Nash]

Nash we are massclaiming, can you claim?

Did, I'm a VT

[Nash]

Does the player get to choose?

[Nash]

Whatever. I think Looker is least likely to be scum and that SB9 and Ari should be investigated after I'm dead.

[Nash]

Froppy should target gypyx and drew should target Ari. Then we will have a solve by tomorrow if scum kills.

Unless you are scum and you kill Ari.

[Nash]

It's checkmate. I'm town, scum should forfeit.

[Nash]

Rough play from me, but good game.
Looking forward to playing with you all again.
Thanks for modding, JV!