Open 784 - Hard-Boiled (Town Wins!)

[superbowl9]

How do you do fellow kids

VOTE: word321

I will be holding you ransom until you type 321 words.

[superbowl9]

I am not going to hide my intentions here.

You post gifs of anime.....you move up the Drew scumdar.

Anime slander is not tolerated
VOTE: Drew

[superbowl9]

So you are saying my self vote was a scum slip?

Or could be something to note later in the game when I don't find it for anything else but humour. Due to it was posted with a gif of me with a gun to my head.

I think you are reaching a bit there. I mean I thought we were still in RVS. I have you in my town pile for now but it feels a bit reaching.

Votato's "scumslip" is a reach and a half but this reaction reads like you are very anxious to defend yourself

[superbowl9]

VOTE: superbowl y u lurk?

As riveting as RVS is, I like out other game better

[superbowl9]

I have great reads based off everyone's pfp. Game is pretty much solved for me

[superbowl9]

I have great reads based off everyone's pfp. Game is pretty much solved for me

Who are you?

Byakuya kuchiki

[superbowl9]

Does this mean you will tell us on page 8?

I can't tell the present, just the future.

So will we have someone lynched before page 20 or is this going to be a long one?

Looking like the latter

[superbowl9]

I've heard before that longer days are typically better for scum, and from the games I've played as scum, town performed better in the games with shorter early games.

Awesome let's quicklynch someone then, we can get that done by page 10

[superbowl9]

I'll hop on this wagon because 199 is incorrect
VOTE: piisirrational

[superbowl9]

What is so wrong about it? (199)

I just do not believe this to be correct - what reasons do scum have to self-vote over town? They don't want to vote their partners? There's 10 other people to vote... It's called RVS for a reason

[superbowl9]

I'll read through this RVS soon and if there's anything worth pushing

[superbowl9]

Yes

[superbowl9]

Hehe it's content time boys and girls

Big townread on Deimos for stuff like 234

I'm thinking a lil fos on word is developing? Cases on ppl seemed a bit reachy for me (222 + 225) ((edit: add 351 lol))(((also jesus christ the block paragraphs with typos are hard to read)))

100000% agree with BM's 335 - do you have any slots open in that scumhunting school?
Cause of this VOTE: Marashu

Can someone who townreads votato give me a reason why (Drew, Marashu, Tuxedo)?

Also this game is a lot funnier than I first thought it was we have assembled a cast of interesting characters

[superbowl9]

With regards to my hopping on the pi wagon - I was too lazy to really read the game but still wanted my vote somewhere that would be pro-town, so what better place than a lurker wagon?
Me disagreeing with the statement was just kinda RVS-y logic to hop on a wagon that would 90% not end up lynching and pressure a lurker into producing content. Hopefully that makes sense

[superbowl9]

Why do you townread votato @ all the ppl who townread votato (these are just the ppl I jotted down who said smth about towntato)

[superbowl9]

an opportunity arises - we have 3 days to lynch Votato before he returns from V/LA. assuming piss shows up beforehand.

I see no good reason to do this.

I see you haven't played with votato before

I've played with him before. It's just that I have a null town read on him and would rather someone else get lynched.

Why are you still taking this seriously?

[superbowl9]

VOTE: midari

Lmao lynchbait voting worse lynchbait

[superbowl9]

Also dope formatting Nash

[superbowl9]

Unfortunately Deimos/BM have already laid out a lot of the thoughts I had on the game so a lot of things I would want to post are just retreads of what they said (votato lynchbait and Midari lynchbait included). Seems like Nash is in our same mindset as well.

[superbowl9]

Care to enlighten me?

[superbowl9]

So you're saying it means what I think it means, you just disagree with me about you being one

If people can recognize you as lynchbait, then you probably won't get lynched, especially because you're a competent and somewhat productive game member. Idrc about your meta because other people lynching/not lynching you has no bearing on whether I think you are bait or not.

[superbowl9]

I'm pretty convinced Battle Mage is town at this point.

Why?

[superbowl9]

I didn't understand the line about cognitive load.

Having a larger cognitive load is a characteristic of scum that can become exceptionally apparent in less experienced players, whose posting habits end up suffering from brevity and scarcity.

Seems to me a characteristic associated more with the playstyle than necessarily with apathy because of pressure scenarios.

Is there any statistical margin for this statement ?

its not simply that lurky people are scum, but that scum have a hard time faking being genuine, and there is additional cognitive load associated with lying and sustaining a lie. this causes scum to be more likely not to get jokes, to not pick up on cues, etc.

Actually I believe cognitive load can (and more often does) work the other way - scum become hypersensitive to every small interaction, joke, etc. because they don't want to "slip up". This leads to inactivity from an overthinking or fear that they will put out something scummy into the game.

[superbowl9]

I'm pretty convinced Battle Mage is town at this point.

Why?

It's most likely he graduated from the BM school of scumhunting - and is well qualified to judge both town and scum. No explanation needed methinks...

Or alternatively, he's scum and he knows I'm town.

Oh, gotcha can't wait till I get my degree! How much was that student loan debt again?

[superbowl9]

This sounds good to me

[superbowl9]

Unless a lot of people choose the same person to hide behind, that's the only downside I can see

[superbowl9]

My last two rhymed, let's make it three

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Battle Mage gives me like 16 tonnes of resonance every time he posts. He's active and engaged, he's scumhunting, he's tonally squeaky clean.
I don't have substantial logical reason for why he is town, but this is one of the stronger gutreads I've had in my mafia career.

Got it, but be careful not to ride gutreads too far! They can be your best friend and worst enemy

[superbowl9]

Battle Mage gives me like 16 tonnes of resonance every time he posts. He's active and engaged, he's scumhunting, he's tonally squeaky clean.
I don't have substantial logical reason for why he is town, but this is one of the stronger gutreads I've had in my mafia career.

Got it, but be careful not to ride gutreads too far! They can be your best friend and worst enemy

lets be honest, everything is a gutread. sometimes we just pretend we have better reasoning.

This is true, which is why aside from townblocing people for shorter amounts of time, it's good to be able to change your reads. Hence deimos should not ride this very strong townread the rest of the game without examination

[superbowl9]

Spoiler:

Battle Mage gives me like 16 tonnes of resonance every time he posts. He's active and engaged, he's scumhunting, he's tonally squeaky clean.
I don't have substantial logical reason for why he is town, but this is one of the stronger gutreads I've had in my mafia career.

Got it, but be careful not to ride gutreads too far! They can be your best friend and worst enemy

lets be honest, everything is a gutread. sometimes we just pretend we have better reasoning.

This is true, which is why aside from townblocing people for shorter amounts of time, it's good to be able to change your reads. Hence deimos should not ride this very strong townread the rest of the game without examination

do you think deimos was doing that? what are you trying to get at here?

Nah, I agree that BM's posting resonates with me quite well and touches all the points I would want to touch, I am just worried about setting them as town for that - I think scum could do the same thing. I don't want Deimos to fall into the trap of hearing resonant posting and townreading for the whole game because of it. Stuff like that is how good scum easily win games.

[superbowl9]

Regarding my participation in the game, I have nothing relevant to share and I do not intend to invent anything to create the false impression of activity.

So you have no thoughts on the game.
Awesome. Great job. Happy with this thus far.

The fact that we can't look past a little slip of not seeing something and me moving because "heat" I find a bit disturbing as I'm not sure how many games you have been apart of where "oh that was a hammer" has happened in games you have been in. I've been around long enough to have it happen more times then I want to admit. Call it what you want. It's mildly infuriating.


I don't understand what superbowl9 is getting at roughly with the town block and what have you and what not l. Maybe I'm a bit delusional but I would expect everyone's reads to change at some point in this game otherwise this is going to get ugly quickly.

Heavy townping from this, don't think noobish scum with heavy cognitive load would see big backlash from a clear mistake and say "Why cant we move past this little slip??" Scum would try to justify more

[superbowl9]

So I understand BM has the same thoughts you do super?

More or less. I agree with his thought process a bunch and share some of his reads, but I have Worchestire and pi/nash null and you townlean, also slight scum on word.

[superbowl9]

Well the townping I just got sort of pushed it over the edge into town lean, but I was quite in agreement with Deimos in 284 that she gives out noobtown vibes.

[superbowl9]

Drew are you a Hectic alt? The game rests on this

[superbowl9]

Also would like to claim my fame and glory for predicting we would not have a lynch by pg 20

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an idea:

if we can make it through Day 1 without outting the hider, would it be sensible for everyone to claim a name they would target if they were the hider? this way if the hider dies without their target dying, we will likely have 1 confirmed scum? probably most helpful if we try and get a reasonable diverse spread of names too.

Counter-point

And if there is a vig? And the hider hides behind them then they are dead as well. Ala Clint Eastwood style. So then you create a false positive and in the end lynching a town PR in the bigger picture.

Tracker seems like the much better/more obvious selection in this setup no?

But this is true, I missed that hider going behind vig would kill them

[superbowl9]

I fear people are going to use the 'noob' card as an excuse to put the blinders on to scummy behavior.

This can certainly happen, which is why sometimes it's good to policy lynch VIs/lurkers. As such I keep these types of slots open as compromise lynches or if there are no other scum leads to pursue, unless I'm really townreading them. I don't think Midari is our best option day 1 tho

[superbowl9]

do u think newbtowns take the initiative on the hunt on the second most suspicious person after a mistake of that caliber, not taken it on that magnitude previously on the game?

Yes because they are trying to actually play the game not talk about what they view as irrelevant mistakes. Scum will be paranoid that all their mistakes are relevant

[superbowl9]

I fear people are going to use the 'noob' card as an excuse to put the blinders on to scummy behavior.

This can certainly happen, which is why sometimes it's good to policy lynch VIs/lurkers. As such I keep these types of slots open as compromise lynches or if there are no other scum leads to pursue, unless I'm really townreading them. I don't think Midari is our best option day 1 tho

Who's talking policy lynch on lurkers, I don't know why you brought that up?

I am talking making excuses for scummy behavior.

Yeah i only threw lurking in there because I see it as similarly anti-town: if you are playing poorly (too scum to be scum) or lurking then you're not making valuable contributions to the game even if you are town, so mislynching a person like that is imo okay.

I'm saying yes we should be aware of scummy behavior, but I'm sure you know that it's quite easy to paint any noob as scum because their reasoning/play is just not great most of the time. This does excuse a lot of things one usually sees as scummy.

pedit: Already on it

[superbowl9]

But, why do you assume that Midari is a noob? Lots of 2020 join dates here, why her?

I view noob as more of a posting style/mindset than join date, someone fresh off newbies could be a great player, but if they seem like they don't know the most effective ways to argue certain cases or are unfamiliar with terms like Worchestire, then I would label them as a noob if that makes sense

[superbowl9]

Welcome to the anime pfp guild CJ

[superbowl9]

I would like to officially issue superbowl his acceptance letter into the townblock.
Word I grant a provisional position.

Position accepted.

[superbowl9]

Also good luck with your corona test Drew!

[superbowl9]

Spoiler:

Regarding my participation in the game, I have nothing relevant to share and I do not intend to invent anything to create the false impression of activity.

So you have no thoughts on the game.
Awesome. Great job. Happy with this thus far.

The fact that we can't look past a little slip of not seeing something and me moving because "heat" I find a bit disturbing as I'm not sure how many games you have been apart of where "oh that was a hammer" has happened in games you have been in. I've been around long enough to have it happen more times then I want to admit. Call it what you want. It's mildly infuriating.


I don't understand what superbowl9 is getting at roughly with the town block and what have you and what not l. Maybe I'm a bit delusional but I would expect everyone's reads to change at some point in this game otherwise this is going to get ugly quickly.

Heavy townping from this, don't think noobish scum with heavy cognitive load would see big backlash from a clear mistake and say "Why cant we move past this little slip??" Scum would try to justify more

I like this

I couldn't disagree more. I find it infinitely more likely that newbie-scum would prefer to play something down and plead for people to look the other way, rather than properly defending their actions. It's an approach designed to avoid scrutiny. Further, the fact Midari terms it a "slip" pings me, as well as the general language use. "Disturbing"? "infuriating"? It's all unnecessarily emotive language.

I see your point, but I don't think scum want to get emotional when someone pushes them. I do think noob scum would try to divert attention, but I think they would at least try to explain it - I'm almost making a too scum to be scum argument here ig.

[superbowl9]

I am fine with a Midari lynch today, but I think there are better wagons to explore first (namely Marashu). BM you can always hop on the Marashu wagon then hop back to Midari closer to deadline if you like what you see.

[superbowl9]

Well to each his own my friend

[superbowl9]

Welcome looker, and welcome PP to the anime pfp guild!

Welcome votato to the Midari is town club!

Welcome BM and Looker to the Marashu wagon!

[superbowl9]

Lynch preferences are 31% marashu | 24% deimos or word321 | 20% Battle Mage or Tuxedo Mask | 13% Doctor Drew or ceejayvinoya | 9% midariPenguin Power | 3% Superbowl, votato, worcester, piisirrationalNash.

Can you explain deimos and word?

[superbowl9]

Also I'm not very partial to VCA but TM's post gets a few townpoints for me. Just putting VCs out there and not making a case with them seems town - if scum does this type of work they will want to make a case off of it imo.

[superbowl9]

Also don't love Marashu not defending himself as he is 2nd (now 1st) biggest wagon - reads like an attempt at deflection.

[superbowl9]

Also I'm not very partial to VCA but TM's post gets a few townpoints for me. Just putting VCs out there and not making a case with them seems town - if scum does this type of work they will want to make a case off of it imo.

Meh - it’s D1 and I don’t agree. Watch for the color coding in later phases.

(still could come from any alignment)

You disagree with me not liking VCA or with my townpoints?

Ugh this game is boring me to tears.

Here's an idea. Let's uh eliminate Nash, since you all can't agree on Midari vs marashu anyway.

This seems townie to me - if ceejay is scum he's got some balls

[superbowl9]

Have a meeting but plan to put out a marashu case/word critique later today

[superbowl9]

On marashu:

1. Much of his posting seems bare-bones and simply states obvious facts or puts out reads with little evidence/reasoning. Can you name 3 things Marashu has contributed to the game so far? I'm not sure i could name one.

2. There's been a wagon on him since pg. 14. Over 350 posts, 5 Marashu posts (that activity lol), and not 1 word discussing his own wagon/voters, even when others have been curious as to the case on him? Seems very "If I ignore this pressure maybe it will go away" imo, and I can't see town thinking that.

3. Contradiction: he votes a random slot to "apply more pressure", yet his own activity/defense has been lacking/nonexistent despite having a wagon on him for half of D1. If you value game contributions, why put out bare-bones content and naked reads? Expanding on this note, he seems willing to ask basic questions or for explanation of reads, but has yet to explain *any* of his own reads without prompting. Usually if you are asking others to explain you'd explain at least a few of your own reads instead of just throwing stuff out there, no?

4. Terrible votes: after 2 RVS votes, votes Tuxedo only after being prompted by deimos, and keeps that vote there for almost the rest of the day. Then unvotes because he's "come around". Then out of nowhere votes Nash to "apply pressure"??? That vote's got less pressure than a flat tire. If he actually wanted to apply some pressure, wouldn't he be explaining himself and lobbying for people to join him? He's essentially been sitting on either TM (applied so much pressure with E-5) or no one for the entire day.

[superbowl9]

Spoiler:

maras wagon is interesting to some degree; i have purposely avoided going indeep with opinions onj mara, since its dynamic is insightful and mara himself does indeed need more push to his slot. even now his response wasnt exactly satisfactory; specifically I dnt rly like the change of tone towards BMs slot. Having said that, i never saw an

offensive

or

terminally scummy

lack of scumhunting on marashu, and Ive liked some of his posts previous to BMs accusation and after it; I do thing a wagon was useful. In that regard, I dnt find particularly suspicious the first accusation from BM and Deimos towards their respective slots, specially since tunneling is a meta characteristic for BM.

What I do rly find interesting however about the wagon r the

dynamics

around it; first, independent of the actual scumsiness of Mara (wich I dnt find particularly big to be honest, as Ive said before), for a lot of time it rly felt like most of the opinions of the game were akin to that; that BM had a strong case with deimos, and all that. The wagon too gained traction too fast, traction that culminated with the 2 votes from worc and midari, that lead to a L-1; Ive already said it, but again, most of the traction was induced by a perception that BM had a strong case, wich is inherently suspicious. When confronted, midaris reaction was suspicious; but yet again, there was a lot of reticence to explore that posibility (from players like superbowl and deimos), or at least to leave the wagon; by dynamics alone, this is another sounding bell, wich motivates the further push on the slot.
Resuming things, maras wagon was easy to stay on, and the only actual argument necessary for was quoting BM; on the other hand, I may be biased with midari/penguin, but it wasw strange it not catching that much attention.

Finally, about ppl on the wagon, this thing is completely irrelevant withou a flip on penguin. Penguin is the summiest of em all, but not a sure scum; upon a red flip, THEN we can rly begin to talk, and given the current situation, I would instantly go first and foremost for a superbowl here. But yet, this is still a moot point.

I do enjoy that you can use "dynamic and insightful" logic to townread Marashu

If you've not seen a terminal lack of scumhunting, I do think you're actively trying to townread this slot for one reason or another. Yes, Marashu will take the first step in scumhunting, but what helpful interactions has he produced? What pressure is he creating? It's essentially going through the motions.

midaris reaction was suspicious; but yet again, there was a lot of reticence to explore that posibility (from players like superbowl and deimos)

The case for town Midari has been made a bunch of times, yet you act as though Deimos and I just couldn't get a grasp on just how "obviously scummy" her reaction was lol? Also this case doesn't work because I can say you (puts on monacle) "have been quite reticent in hopping on the Marashu wagon good sir!" Sounds ridiculous, right? Especially since you just made the case for Marshu being town

maras wagon was easy to stay on, and the only actual argument necessary for was quoting BM

If I wanted an easy wagon to stay on, I'd join you on PP You also act as though BM's post is the only reason anyone was on the wagon? Although I agree with BM, as you've just seen I have my own reasons to suspect him, and I'm sure others do as well - no one is just sheeping here lol (okay maybe worchestire).

Final point, in 610 you dismissed the Midari noob town/too scummy to be scum argument. I have an issue with this because to deny that noobs/VIs should be treated differently from any other player just encourages easy mislynches. You can't hold Midari or worchestire to the same standard you would hold a Deimos or word123 ( ) to. The argument that she knew what she was doing is honestly laughable - what skilled scum have you EVER seen play remotely close to that? So far it seems to me that you and others on the Midari wagon have been the ones flying under the radar looking for an easy wagon/mislynch, not the Marashu folks.

[superbowl9]

@mod: sorry to do this straight after coming in, but I need a v/la for the next 48-72 hours. Just got out of the ER. I'll still be around, but not as active as I would usually.

Gl fam

[superbowl9]

Is there a fascination with anime that someone could sum up?

Anime is dope try it sometime

If there are any claims, please let me know, because I don't understand why I shouldn't be suspecting Deimos or Word.

Lol Deimos has been townblocked (blocced?) by p. much everyone D1, and word has been townblocked by most except me (I think?). Ik you haven't read, but usually if you put people down as your second/third lynch options you have some reasoning besides "why not"

[superbowl9]

I am totally down to write an essay defending anime

[superbowl9]

ANIME GUILD IS TRIUMPHING

[superbowl9]

the game was long and had a fucktonne (yes, that's metric, deal with it)

Mind... Breaking... Must... Imperial... Feet... Inches....

[superbowl9]

Response to 739:

My bad for thinking you townread Mara - it would be easier if you just said you null read them tho

If u ask me, there is some degree of scumhunting thorough the whole game

My argument was never that there was no attempts at scumhunting, it was that those attempts are 1 prompted by others and 2 are lackluster.
Asking a simple question without any meaningful followup is not scumhunting. Providing reads (esp. with no evidence) is not scumhunting.
If you read back 178 and 193, the only actual action taken is

prompted by deimos

. Check back through the iso. Every time you think you see an example of scumhunting, check for someone prompting it. You will find it

I am known to comment and "help" and whatnots on other games, so I think that associating scum with that being deliberative of some sorts is a very very weak tell.

I also defend others a lot and thus don't use guilt by association arguments until flips.

As far as the Midari/PP slot: really? Just compare Midari and Marashu's ISOs. If you honestly think these two players represent the same experience/competence level you are lying. Midari clearly attempts to play pro-town (poorly), but also gets sidetracked from her natural play because.... there's a wagon on her for most of the day! Which is a natural reaction, *especially* for someone who is less experienced! You using this as evidence for Midari>Marshu just reads disingenuous.

My main point that I would like you to address

(ik you're worded out so you dont have to respond to all this) is that you seem to discount the simplest solution and stretch out arguments to paint the Mara wagon as scummy. You say only BM's post motivated the wagon, but yeah, people were thinking along the same lines and agreed with the post? Why is that a bad thing? You say people have been quick and innate to call Midari town. Yeah, because they think she's town lol? You have done a great job at dressing up the argument to make it appear nuanced, but really you are just adding unnecessary suspicion to pretty normal game events. That's why I can turn around and say "AHA! You have an innate urge to not scumread Marashu, very interesting...".

[superbowl9]

Guys, this guy is a damned SITH LORD!!!


WHY ARE WE NOT ELIMINATING A SITH LORD!?!?!?

LUKE SHUT UP YOUR FATHER IS TRYING TO FLY UNDER THE RADAR

[superbowl9]

My only hesitation on Marashu is that the same group of players got a lot of traction on wagons for Marashu and Pi. So something pings me about that and kind of makes me feel it is scum Midari/PP indictive, but I've never done VCA before so I don't feel too strong in that gut feeling.

I think word also highlighted this, but scum is not the only option! Maybe we are just a strong townblock trying to steer town in the right direction, or maybe we are scum - you have to decide this, but don't treat scum manipulation as the only motive here

[superbowl9]

My only hesitation on Marashu is that the same group of players got a lot of traction on wagons for Marashu and Pi. So something pings me about that and kind of makes me feel it is scum Midari/PP indictive, but I've never done VCA before so I don't feel too strong in that gut feeling.

I think word also highlighted this, but scum is not the only option! Maybe we are just a strong townblock trying to steer town in the right direction, or maybe we are scum - you have to decide this, but don't treat scum manipulation as the only motive here

What about what I said implied it was the only thing I considered? What's the worry of me looking at those that moved from Pi to Marashu?

I can't look into your mind and see what you're considering, word has also said this gives him scumpings so I am pointing out a very reasonable alternative theory to anyone who may see these arguments - are you saying these types of arguments shouldn't be pointed out lol?

[superbowl9]

Also this no elim thing and Mara's claim being towny are absolutely ridiculous.

No elim has been talked about but the VT claim here is 0% town indicative. BM's view on a claim doesn't mean that other members of town (especially those who are not on the wagon already and are less likely to agree with him) will follow his thoughts. If you claim PR, you're trading PR for scum at some point in the game, which is obviously a numbers disadvantage. This whole thing is WIFOM anyways, there's no reason to respect a VT claim as townie, as doing so makes scum more likely to claim VT and get off scot free for absolutely no risk

[superbowl9]

i'm fine with marashu claiming, only on the proviso that if he claims vanilla we actually lynch him. I'm fking sick of these setups where we just run up a bunch of people and out all the PRs.

Well, I am claiming VT, so what happens happens. My elimination might not be a bad thing in that regard (except for the fact that it's a miselimination), because it should at least give context to my wagon and some of the reads on me. I'd rather be an early miseliminationthan than a late miselimination, and more than either I want to win, so if my elimination helps town get the info we need to win, then so be it.

I feel like Nash is coasting, which is why I want more pressure there. I'm actually kinda feeling Worcestershire as scum - I thought that Nash's point on cognitive load was pretty on point, and resonates with past games I've played as scum. I just didn't think that will gain traction with so many people seemingly TRing Worce.

Bullshit.

I need 3 votes on Marashu.

Are you actually Batman???

[superbowl9]

Also this no elim thing and Mara's claim being towny are absolutely ridiculous.

No elim has been talked about but the VT claim here is 0% town indicative. BM's view on a claim doesn't mean that other members of town (especially those who are not on the wagon already and are less likely to agree with him) will follow his thoughts. If you claim PR, you're trading PR for scum at some point in the game, which is obviously a numbers disadvantage. This whole thing is WIFOM anyways, there's no reason to respect a VT claim as townie, as doing so makes scum more likely to claim VT and get off scot free for absolutely no risk

But the number disadvantage looked inevitable, it comes down to possibly outing a PR or not for scum!Mara.

Welcome to WIFOM land

It's not inevitable if a handy-dandy Nash comes along, sees that it *looks* inevitable, and uses that as justification to unvote!

No action is inevitable in this game until it happens.

This is not to mention that on a macroscopic scale, your strategy is not a good one. If many people across the site began using your same argument in similar sitautions, we have a meta change and now scum can claim VT with the same weight as a PR claim! Awesome! Apparently we should also conftown them for a while too - we've now created scum paradise.

Note - it can be useful to break paradigms

from time to time

, especially in case of a situation with extenuating circumstances. This is not one of those times though

[superbowl9]

Welcome gypyx, good to see you again my man!!

[superbowl9]

Reminder that we have 1 day to deadline - we should be hammering soon

[superbowl9]

The townblock just put in work - now’s your chance to join us word! I think i like Nash over anyone else rn (as elim option). I wanna go back and read some of those replacement slots.

Another thing to be discussed today is hider strats - should we do the same thing except 2 slots up this time?

[superbowl9]

{word, Ari, BM}

That's where I think we should look today.

Why not Nash?

[superbowl9]

Also mod is awesome and welcome Froppy!

[superbowl9]

PP you feel like looking on a wagon that flipped scum over the person who hopped off it to defend scum? Interesting take

[superbowl9]

{word, Ari, BM}

That's where I think we should look today.

I'm guessing you don't have any reasons?

I'm offended you think so little of me.

Prove me wrong.

I mean - I kinda just gave them? Scum almost certainly bussed and you three are in the typical bus positions.

You thinking I'm scum means that I was a counterwagon to my partner and made no effort to get towncred by bussing him nor did I try to move the wagon elsewhere. That's extremely suboptimal play.

#1 this is WIFOM (also why VCA kinda sorta sucks) and #2 you seem quite sure that bussing would be the optimal play for scum - I don't view this as the case. I think you could still make a case for town (or not scum) Mara and be fine as scum (*cough* word *cough*)

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LMAO this is why I love gypyx

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Almost everything can be handwaved as WIFOM. I'm just going by probability based on current site meta.

Fun note: my most recent completed game actually goes against this view, but that's an anomaly.

Exactly why using meta does not work lol, if everyone knows the meta it's very easy to break it. To use the argument that "well scum would have bussed because that's the current meta!" is WIFOM which is not useful unless you can argue that scum is conforming to the current meta, which you can't unless you are scum. Thus using VCA in this way is not useful

Don't make me go on a WIFOM rant please the "Oh WeLl TeChNiCaLlY eVeRyThInG iS wIfOm" argument always bugs me

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WIFOM

Spoiler: 0 - An example

If you are unfamiliar with WIFOM or meta levels, which I doubt many here are, this is for you!

To illustrate a WIFOM scenario, here is an example using the common scenario of a scum player providing a read on a fellow scum member - each number represents a meta level a person can operate on.

• lvl 0 - Town read your partner in an attempt to keep them alive
  lvl 1 - Scum read your partner, anticipating that others will think you were operating from level 0. Thus, if you flip scum, your buddy will be cleared, as scum wants to townread their partner on the 0th level meta.
  lvl 2 - Town read your partner, anticipating that people would think you would want to distance from your partner by scum reading them using level 1 logic.
  lvl 3 - Scum read your partner, anticipating people thinking you are operating from level 2

And so on....

You can see that in this example, all even (or odd) meta levels lead to the same outcomes - this happens with binary scenarios (i.e. the wine can be placed in front of either you or me), but gets more complicated with non-binary choices, such as rock-paper-scissors.

Actually Important Stuff

A last area of note is that every action taken by any player is *technically* within the framework of WIFOM. It is, however, quite pedantic and useless to say that level 0 play or argumentation exists within some WIFOM framework, hence why WIFOM only has a place when higher levels of meta are brought into play/discussion. The only useful place lvl 0 has in WIFOM discussions is as an alternative to a proposed higher level argument or strategy.

Spoiler: 1 - What do we mean by "WIFOM"?

We (now) all know the basics of what WIFOM is, but I see many people confusing three distinct categories which are both lumped into "WIFOM" due to generalization.
These are:

1.

Exploiting

WIFOM
2.

Experiencing

WIFOM
3.

Using

WIFOM arguments

When you

exploit

WIFOM, you are exploiting the fact that there is a generally defined meta by moving up meta levels to execute some strategy. For example, if you started a wagon on your scum buddy knowing that this would cause others to view you as town, that would be an exploitation of WIFOM. Note: This type of WIFOM is almost exclusively done by scum players, and is 99% of the time anti-town.

When you are

experiencing

WIFOM, you are, just as Vizzini is in the OG clip, deliberating over which meta level someone is operating upon. Note: This type of WIFOM is almost exclusively experienced by Town players, as scum already knows alignments and can more easily ascribe motive to actions.

When you are

using

WIFOM, you are either making an argument as to which meta level someone is operating from OR pointing out that it is useless to speculate upon which meta level someone is on.

Sadly, these clearly different types of WIFOM never get distinguished, as WIFOM is the term we use to refer to all of these instances.

Spoiler: 2 - When is WIFOM good?

Experiencing WIFOM is almost always a good thing in healthy doses. One always wants to theorize about plays or strategies that break the normal "level 0" meta, or they will be easily duped. If one gets too far into this line of thinking, it can be harmful, but this will be discussed later.

Using WIFOM arguments can be good to help aid players who have overdosed in their experience of WIFOM ("you're in a pointless WIFOM, just stop thinking about it"), or to reasonably accuse someone of exploiting WIFOM ("BM started the wagon because he knew VCA is a common thing, so therefore he did it just for town points!"). It should be noted, though, that this second type of WIFOM argument needs evidence to back it up, just like any other argument. Simply arguing that someone

could

be operating on a non-zero meta level is not sufficient to say that they

are

operating on said level, as Occam's Razor says that unnecessarily complicated solutions should be dismissed.

The opposite of this is also true, however. You can dismiss an argument as unnecessarily complicated WIFOM if it has no evidence, but it would

not

be sound to brush aside all WIFOM arguments simply because they are WIFOM. If someone makes an argument with valid evidence as to why someone is abusing a higher meta level, then that's an effective WIFOM argument.

Just because something is WIFOM does not mean it is good or bad

.

Spoiler: 3 - When is WIFOM bad?

It is generally bad to experience WIFOM if you go too many levels deep or spend too much time focusing on it. In the original PB clip, Vizzini deliberates over a comically large number of WIFOM levels, to the point where that type of metagaming would never be reached by human agents. If you are considering WIFOM exploitation above maybe 2 or 3 levels, you're in too deep.

You can also be too influenced (or not influenced enough) by the possibility of WIFOM exploitation occurring. If you simply take every possibility that someone

could

be abusing the meta and consider it as a valid interpretation, you will be cognitively overloaded trying to balance all of those possibilities in an already complex game. You need to evaluate evidence and filter out which interactions you think are just normal level 0 ones, which should be most of them.

The opposite of this is once again true: you also need to beware of people using WIFOM arguments to try to convince you to ignore the possibility of someone exploiting WIFOM. Someone saying "Yeah, but this is WIFOM" should not be viewed as a refutation of your reasoning, but rather a prompt for evidence as to why your use of WIFOM reasoning is more probable than the simplest base case.

Using WIFOM arguments is bad only when the argument itself is either flawed or nefarious. If you are using a WIFOM argument with no evidence, it is a bad argument, just as with normal arguments. If you are using a WIFOM argument to manipulate someone into being confused or to think a certain way, that's scummy.

Spoiler: 4 - Back to the Penguin

Back to what's prompted all of this. PP has argued that scum almost certainly have bussed Marashu. I point out that this is a use of an unjustified WIFOM argument - PP is assuming that scum here is operating on level 1 of the following WIFOM framework:

lvl 0 - scum don't vote their partner (obvious)
lvl 1 - scum vote their partner in anticipation of people looking back at the wagon assuming scum are operating at lvl 0, thus gaining townpoints.

My point in saying that this is WIFOM is not to dismiss your POV, it is simply to say that your POV is one among multiple, and that you haven't provided evidence for your POV. I can just as easily say "I'm looking off the wagon because scum wouldn't vote for themselves!!!", but I would be making the same mistake that you are: assuming that scum is operating at a specific WIFOM level without evidence.

PP may argue that the meta has shifted so much within mafia that the level 1 strategy above has actually become more of a default "level 0" strategy, meaning it should automatically be assumed that scum are employing level 1 meta since it is so beneficial to them. I see this as a valid interpretation - the only thing I would point out is that to use this logic in *all* cases would be to ignore the possibility of a WIFOM action, which would be naive. To say that scum *always* bus in such a situation would be firstly incorrect and secondly a poor assumption to work off of, even if true.

That is why VCA can be so flawed, because it's so easy to (exploit) WIFOM as scum, yet the playerbase (as PP just did) often assumes that scum *only* operate at a certain WIFOM level when [not] voting on wagons. All this is not to mention the fact that you can never know for certain if someone will ever be lynched, so by always employing a lvl 1 strategy as scum you

will

end up lynching scum which may have otherwise escaped a wagon at some point.

Thus, you have committed 2 WIFOM errors - 1 assuming the WIFOM level upon which scum is operating, and 2 dismissing a valid use of WIFOM argumentation as one which is not useful.

Now back to the game

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The student has preempted the master

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Are you Reck in disguise?

I am half Hectic half Reck

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If you want to help, you can point out what you're referring to for your argument otherwise I'm just going to ignore it.

I will actually help with this
335
Wagon builds over like 1 to 2 pages after this

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anytime my botha

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*brotha you are not a bother

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I'm sorry yall it looks like I will have to revise a previous statement

WELCOME FROPPY AS AN HONORED MEMBER OF THE EVERLASTING ANIME PFP GUILD

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When you write an essay about stopping WIFOM VCA and everyone keeps arguing WIFOM VCA

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Yes you are in good people pile also because you pledged to join our guild

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I'll probably go back and read some more tomorrow, then figure out who to push - BM you down to scumhunt with me again tomorrow? If we catch another one we can officially say the BM scumhunting school formed the best townblock of all time

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Word you can join us too if you want we have an extra slot since deimos got slapped

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I still can't read your slot Froppy so ig I will have to pocket you for da day

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I'll see after I reread some stuff - I dont even remember the case on this slot atm

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Nvm just re-realized PP is Midari's replace not pi's

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Okay so the slots I possibly want to vote before this read are PP, looker, TM, or Nash.

Looker - Although I think looker would be a reallllly interesting pressure to see play out today I don't think his probability of scum is that high nor will my one vote on him gain much traction, so sadly that will wait for (potentially) another day. I do think that slot has kind of coasted through the game so far though.

TM - I just gutread as a newer lynchbaity player, if they're scum I think we'll figure it out in the next couple of days

Nash - I actually totally think you're scum after rereading your iso lol. Even if you're not scum #1 your Marashu claim reaction was really just anti-town. I would prefer to have players who don't do anti-town things in the game as it progresses. #2 Your activity/scumhunting is and has been lacking, you aren't really bringing any positive force to this town. So even if I didn't scumread you I would probably want to policy elim you.

VOTE: Nash

PP - I really just do not see a Midari/Marashu scumteam - Midari having pi and Mara in her fos list wayyy early doesn't seem like a noobscum play. PP has done almost literally nothing and I can see why yall would want to get rid of the slot because Midari was not playing well at all and PP is doing nothing (even though the VCA thing was bad I think it was a good attempt, just a little lazy), but I can't shake my townread on this slot.

Also 854 makes me think town on worchestire/Froppy

If you want me to expand on any of these points please lmk and I can do a more in-depth analysis of a slot - I will also probly start digging up some more evidence on Nash

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Another interesting slot imo is Drew but he's very similar to looker imo, maybe another day

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I'll probably go back and read some more tomorrow, then figure out who to push - BM you down to scumhunt with me again tomorrow? If we catch another one we can officially say the BM scumhunting school formed the best townblock of all time

Word you can join us too if you want we have an extra slot since deimos got slapped

Sorry I missed this somehow.

Yes, we can scumhunt together today of course, and Word-town is welcome. Can we please run up PP first? I have a theory I want to test. We can do Nash after - promise.

I'm fine with going to a claim if you want that info, but no matter what I will unvote after the claim. I townread this slot pretty hard

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VOTE: PenguinPower

Also if suspiciousness happens with this wagon or any expedient hammers take place I will come for yall

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also on your Looker read, Looker is Looker. In my experience, there isn't much value gained by putting pressure on him, and at some point if he's still alive you have to make a judgement call

Good to know. At least he's pretty active in his play, not a bad one to have around for a while

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VOTE: Nash now that you have what you wanted BM

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is basically saying what I said was valid because I didn't say "all cases," I said "almost certainly" and "probable."

No I think you've missed the point of my essay - you are assuming that most players bus here simply because that is what you perceive the meta to be.
This is wrong because firstly I wouldn't agree that the overwhelming meta would be to bus in that scenario - I think it's more 50-50.

Secondly how do you know each of those 3 are familiar with the meta, and how do you know that there's a large chance they're following meta?

Thirdly it was not completely clear that Mara had to be the elim there - I've seen wagons fall apart that I was much surer of than that one.

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I'm talking about probability from my experience over a couple of hundred games over the past few years. I'm applying that general probability to this instance. So, I think you're objectively wrong in your assumption that it's 50/50 there. I don't think you have to be familiar with the meta for it to be the action that you gravitate to. There's a reason why it's been a popular action. Hard disagree with the way eod went down and Mara not being the clear lynch, especially given the posting level and the main drivers.

I already said I wasn't going to debate this point, so this will be the last I comment on it.

I'll respect that and not bring it up again. I still think I'm right though

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Thank you my friend <3

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Ik I said like 1 post ago I wouldnt talk about this, but it's not really @ PP anymore and if people don't want to read theory they can just skip over these posts - this is too interesting to not talk about for me though

Totally agree with you word, was going to go into the weights of different levels but my post was already long enough. As you said this meta can reach a Nash (lol) equilibrium, which would be a 50/50 assuming each option is more or less counter to the other (they are) and there's not a clear marginal benefit from choosing one option over the other (debatable, I would actually say not bussing actually has the strategical advantage in higher-level games), hence why I said 50/50.
This is still debatable, though, because mafia players are not perfect and may incorrectly weight the strategical advantage of bussing - how good is the average scum at estimating the effectiveness of a bus? I think, in this case, we would all agree that scum's decision on whether to bus is dependent on the % chance of the wagon going to elim, which is also subjective evaluation, and hence my issue with the assumptions.
In a sense, the natural equilibrium of the metas leads to a more direct correlation of bus% with wagon hammer probability, with a meta shift skewing this correlation one way or the other. However, this is all assuming that scum are playing perfectly rationally, which isnt necessarily the case.
My point is there's way too many variables in this to have any reasonable certainty that a random sample of scum A weights the EV of bussing > the EV of not bussing, B thinks that the wagon will go to hammer enough to reach the bus section of their curve, and C is acting as a rational enough player in order to follow this curve in the first place.

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Haha you don't have to read this interaction with me/pp/word if you don't want:

Just know I disagreed with PP's elim pool selection for theoretical reasons, none of this really has notable implications on this game in the first place because functionally I don't really care where PP pressures as long as they are pressuring.

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Excellent, I'm happy lynching PP then. I could have bought Midari's play if she was a PR just being overly worried about being directed, but definitely didn't feel vanilla.

Would a PR not out as a VT? I feel like anyone would have said VT if they were in that position.

A fake claim would be a really bad move as town here - I am 99% sure PP would not do this

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Spoiler: more theory

I agree that there is no sound theoretical way to really model or predict this behavior, which is why in my mind it comes down to personal preference. That's why it struck me as incorrect for PP to assume that scum would be so likely to play this scenario in one way that he's setting a lynch pool solely based on this factor.

Sidenote - as scum I really don't think I would bus in that scenario - I'd consider it, but VCA had already started to be used halfway through D1 in this game lol. You just KNOW someone's going to try to make a VCA argument - much as PP would KNOW that a bus is optimal in that scenario. This is why imo WIFOM is a key component of this situation - you can't just assume everyone will operate at one level or another.

I don't believe that it is a reasonable estimate to say that the vast majority, or even most players would bus in this situation. The way I see it there's 2 reasons make this estimate: theory or outcome. We've already talked about how the theory is murky at best, but I suspect PP was using his past knowledge of outcome in similar situations to predict the outcome of this one as well. The big problem with this, though, is that humans are naturally TOO GOOD at pattern-seeking.

Firstly, you are more likely to remember exciting or significant outliers. You're more likely to remember a successful bus than a non-bus, since not bussing is just seen as a default or more boring option. So, over many repetitions, humans will almost always be bad at estimating this type of stuff - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia.

Secondly, the past meta within a certain situation is not necessarily indicative of current meta. Even if 200/200 people have bussed in this type of scenario previously, this only RAISES the opportunity cost of not bussing in this game. Obviously you can only take into account the current meta in making a decision if you are aware of the meta, so if you want to divide this into newbies vs experienced that's even a whole nother level of discussion, but to generalize and say the average mafia player who presumably knows some meta is unlikely to try to abuse meta is not a good argument for me.

pedit: if you actually would VT claim here as an investigative role any significant % of the time you have huge balls and not great EV evaluations
sidenote - PB is too good a movie for me to not have watched in this long, I think I might follow your lead on this one soon

pedit 2: I would love if you did but you don't have to boss it's hard writing 5 paragraphs ToT

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^ Very comfortable saying this is town v town

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Also I don’t think any more claims today would be beneficial - I believe we should elim out of PP/Nash. I’ll give you my case on why I think it should be Nash later today

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Also pretty important,

can we get everyone to come out and say if you agree with this N2 hider plan or not?

It will make it a hell of a lot easier

I agree with the plan

Pedit: you sniped me too ToT

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we're seeking agreement? eh, i was just expecting people would go with it. i'm not in the mood for more debate after Froppy's thing earlier...

simpler approach is, if someone claims they diverted from the plan, policy daykill them for being stupid.

We don't need to debate it, just good to know for sure who is with the plan

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Also looker by coast I didnt mean you haven't been doing pro-town things, I meant that your slot hasn't received any real pressure so far.

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Dw you and looker are the least of my worries right now

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I at least understood where Nash was coming from end of Day 1.

What???? Nash's play at the end of D1 is policy elimable. Now's a great time to put out more detail about why I prefer them to PP.

PP

The midari case has been done to death, and looking back at the ISO after Mara's flip, nothing does too much to distance the two. There's valid points to be made here on Midari, but PP has been quite inoffensive in his content. It seems to me like they replaced into too many pages and simply is not really putting in much effort to keep up with the game. I can see why it's good to get this slot gone, but Nash has, in my opinion, been objectively bad for a while.

Nash

The no elim vote here is really revealing to me. Yes, bad play is not necessarily AI, but after Nash sees the flawed logic and Mara is flipped, it seems as if their D2 play has become less active (this is partly tonal, but also virtually all content today has been responding to prompts from others/self defense: I saw more individual initiative taken yesterday). I think this is likely a result of scum realizing they messed up with a big anti-town play at a critical moment yesterday and becoming more reserved/defensive (it could also be a result of being shaken by an incorrect TR on Mara, but I don't see a lot of re-evaluation taking place so I think this is unlikely).

The more I look at it, the more Nash's Mara rhetoric gets worse. 757 and 781 read very fence-sitty to me: Nash is willing to bus since their partner has been scummy, but is still keeping the option of pulling out a townread open, which ends up happening. Then at the end of D1, putting huge weight on a VT claim from scum - enough to invalidate everything from 761?

The other issue I have is that Nash has been targeting seemingly "easier" players to ML the whole game. I'll tell you up front that this point isn't the strongest one, as (especially for newer players), easy MLs are usually the ones doing scummy things, so it makes sense that a player's scumreads line up with that to a certain extent. But I do think Nash's foses are quite interesting in this game: votato, worchestire, brassherald, TM, and CJ. Just feels weak to me and like Nash is looking for an easy ML in a bunch of places. Ironically this line of reasoning might also implicate PP, since Nash has townread them for a while, but this is all way too early and way too shaky to really put much solace into. Just something to note.

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Also TM I am still really confused why you voted Marashu 3 posts in a row (also then unvote next post lol). And can you confirm that you are following the hider plan?

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Mod was referring to the fact that you said PP replaced into brassherald, not the marashu vote

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I feel like ppl are ignoring some of the more inoffensive players for now in order to focus on the PP/Nash slots, since i think most of us agree one of them’s gotta go. I think D3 will see more slots getting explored.

Also something I just remembered: deimos being NKd lends to the theory of Midari town no? Since he was one of the og proponents of that theory

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We pretty much have our 2 elim options for the day and hella ppl V/LA

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Jesus BM your school is better than advertised.

I'm VT

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Also Froppy you didn't choose it but I wouldve gone with psychologist assuming there's no vigi, no? It basically removes the false positive of a goon who didn't kill

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Oh worcestire chose it, that explains things

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Yes player can choose
tracker/vig
detective/psychologist

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So if Drew is hider that means he targeted BM and word :/
If looker is hider he targeted gypyx and and froppy, potentially clearing gypyx, which would give us 5 conftown and a win

(Assuming they followed the strats both days)

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Does the player get to choose?

Yes player can choose
tracker/vig
detective/psychologist

Also Froppy you didn't choose it but I wouldve gone with psychologist assuming there's no vigi, no? It basically removes the false positive of a goon who didn't kill

Oh worcestire chose it, that explains things

The player doesn't get to choose detective/psychologist - it's randomly determined.

Oh you right

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We can literally investigate everyone the rest of the nights tho no? As long as scum kills, detective has no false positives so a neg result confirms town. Hider and tracker also both investigate - if we elim in our pool of 5 unconfirmed today, then investigate 3 different of the pool tonight, we either hit scum or don't, in which case the last one left is confirmed scum. It should be a confirmed win by tomorrow.

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We basically have 3 cops at this point

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So to win the game:
1. Elim Nash today
2. Drew, Froppy, and Dunstrall investigate Ari, gypyx, and looker respectively
3. If Froppy or Dunstrall get positive, elim their positive result. If Drew dies, elim Ari. If no one gets positive, elim me.

If scum don't nightkill obviously we just keep elimming outside conftown until we win

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So to win the game:
1. Elim Nash today
2. Drew, Froppy, and Dunstrall investigate Ari, gypyx, and looker respectively
3. If Froppy or Dunstrall get positive, elim their positive result. If Drew dies, elim Ari. If no one gets positive, elim me.

If scum don't nightkill obviously we just keep elimming outside conftown until we win

No mate. Froppy's role is useless, he isn't a cop. So we have 2 investigatives.

Just go with my steer in post 1266 for today/tonight, and then we can deal with the rest later. I'll still be alive tomorrow regardless, so not worried about planning too far in advance.

No because since there's only 1 scum now there's no possibility of Froppy getting a false positive

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Froppy's role identifies if a player killed another player, since there's only one player who can kill (the one scum left), the only way scum could avoid being IDd by her is to not NK, which just lets us win anways

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I mean following my plan we will win by tomorrow or in 2 days if scum dont kill and get lucky, so it’s really a moot point as to who gets investigated/killed.

Froppy should target gypyx and drew should target Ari. Then we will have a solve by tomorrow if scum kills.
VOTE: Nash

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Gg yo, fun playing with all of you! Mods you were awesome. Tough game for scum, deimos BM and word yall put in that work

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Yeah we had a mechanical win no matter what

I think BM read everyone correctly multiple times in this game? Glad i hopped into that scumhunting school