Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Menalque]

I guess a big concern of mine is that if bingle /is/ town then we’re fucked if we lynch him today — or the game becomes way harder, as I think the correct option is still to probably no kill on D5 and let it go to 3p lylo of (PP, SS, a50)

[Menalque]

I guess another issue is that I’m gonna feel SUPER fuckin dumb if I lynch bingle today and he’s town when I had what amounted to a clear on him

[Menalque]

Scum is in {chem, ss, datisi, fb, Lilith}

Turkey ultimately came off bingle scum, thought that chem made sense as scum with the others, also thought S_S could be scum

Yes, I see you turkey, bragging about your reads in that dead thread

[Menalque]

what would a tracker see if they targeted someone who was jailkept but who used a strongman?

Sorry, I know the answer is very likely that you’d see them make the kill but I just wanna make sure

[Menalque]

^started typing that before you posted

I think there’s probably a scum in (bingle, skitt, Blake, PP)

Unless I was protected from a nightkill or I'm scum with him, the odds of him being scum is very very low.

Even with the general suspicion towards my slot, I doubt he lets me live past night one.

Could this be Blake crumbing a jailkeep on bingle on N1?

[Menalque]

We know she didn’t target me, we know she didn’t target skitter

[Menalque]

Bingle is town barring the possibility that I was protected or the scum making the kill was jailed.

This feels a lot like she’s crumbing a jk on bingle N1 and I know that Blake does crumb her night actions

*cries in ali vs pine*

[Menalque]

Does that affect anything?

I suppose if that's the case, and scum figured out she was JK and jailed Bingle, then they would have known she wouldn't jail skitter and they could ninja kill skitter.

That seems fairly unlikely though?

It would... massively explain the missing NK?

[Menalque]

what would a tracker see if they targeted someone who was jailkept but who used a strongman?

yup

Thanks ofhrz!

[Menalque]

Oh, I actually didn’t mean to be sarcastic there, I thought that’s what she was saying by yup

[Menalque]

Well, I'm assuming that Blake stopped the NK, but it wouldn't be conclusive whether she targeted the person who attempted the NK or the target of it. She could easily have targeted Bingle and saved him from a kill.

Okay so... who do you think would kill bingle N1 > Blake/skitter of the people still alive?

[Menalque]

But he also had both flipped scum in his PoE, so he could have been targeted for having accurate reads even if his PP read was wrong.

Only I think both skitter and Blake had that too and I would say had more currency in controlling how the game was being run than bingle did at that point too

[Menalque]

I don't know why we're assuming Blake JK'd Bingle on N1. That post Menalque quoted says Bingle did have the chance to kill Blake. Otherwise, it wouldn't even make sense that Blake says Bingle didn't kill her (if she did deny him the chance to do it).

In fact, I think Blake was implying she JK'd someone NOT-Bingle and thus her being alive worked in Bingle's favour from her PoV.

I think this is highly unlikely. I don’t think Blake would talk about bingle specifically in reference to the jk, when she hadn’t made it clear the day before. This says to me (especially given her phrasing) that she was moving bingle up on the assumption that someone had tried to kill him, but that there was the possibility that she’d stopped the kill in the sense that she’d blocked the scum who was making it.

[Menalque]

I think it’s very relevant to discuss when we have a missing NK, a crumbed jailkeep on bingle, and we’re deciding who to lynch.

[Menalque]

You think it's more likely Bingle just didn't use his PR n2 then A50 being scum?

I think it’s perfectly likely he might have used it, specifically the ninja component

[Menalque]

Like, I’m less convinced that bingle plays “optimally” here — roleblocking skitter when scum are still likely trapped and losing

Let’s say skitter is roleblocked: the D3 lynch is very, very likely to be in (bingle, fb)

Then the roleblock is used up and can’t be used in a situation later on where the game could be mechanically solved without it (or very close to, if my track had gone through last night we’d have 2 clears)

I’m also thinking of C9++ — we felt like we were fucked in that game when we misidentified the Doctor and skitter turned out to be a 1s vig and we thought town had too many clears. We won because we had two scum counterclaim cop at each other and then managed to swing the lynch onto wooper as someone who would exonerate one cop and clear the other, using some BS logic or other.

But the point is that what we did would have been insane but it was our only way to maybe win if the cards came out right. In the situation where bingle roleblocks skitt, it’s GG because I out that result and firebringer is lynched via PoE after — he would have been first to go if datisi hadn’t. So I can see bingle making a “non-optimal mech play” because he knows that’s actually scum‘a best chance of a win (a false inno or him being able to at least stand a chance of deepwolfing) given that both remaining scum were in the lynchpool for D3 without doing something bold

[Menalque]

I need to reread skitter and see if she was hinting more strongly at shooting fb than bingle which would lend credence to my theory

[Menalque]

@maria I think that if we lynch bingle today and he flips town that S_S is much more likely town. Personally I don’t see whatever you see in pingu that makes him so town, but if you are sure of that I think you should lynch A50 tomorrow on balance

[Menalque]

If Bingle scum:

Bingle

[4]:

Menalque

,

PenguinPower

,

gobbledygook

,

Firebringer

,

Menalque

[3]:

skitter30

,

Datisi

,

Bingle

,

PenguinPower

[3]:

Blake Belladonna

,

lilith2013

,

MariaR

,

Not Voting [3]:

Something_Smart

,

Pink Ball

,

Chemist1422

,
-------------------------------------

gobbledygook

[5]:

Bingle

,

Datisi

,

PenguinPower

,

Menalque

,

MariaR

, [L-2]

Bingle

[2]:

Firebringer

,

gobbledygook

,

PenguinPower

[2]:

Blake Belladonna

,

lilith2013

,

MariaR

[1]:

skitter30

,

Not Voting [3]:

Something_Smart

,

Pink Ball

,

Chemist1422

,
-------------------------------------

gobbledygook

[4]:

Bingle

,

Datisi

,

Menalque

,

Pink Ball

,

MariaR

[2]:

gobbledygook

,

skitter30

,

skitter30

[2]:

Blake Belladonna

,

MariaR

,

Something_Smart

[1]:

Firebringer

,

PenguinPower

[1]:

lilith2013

,

Menalque

[1]:

PenguinPower

,

Not Voting [2]:

Something_Smart

,

Chemist1422

,
-------------------------------------

gobbledygook

[7]:

Datisi

,

Pink Ball

,

Something_Smart

,

MariaR

,

lilith2013

,

Firebringer

,

Almost50

, — HAMMER

Something_Smart

[2]:

gobbledygook

,

Bingle

,

PenguinPower

[2]:

Blake Belladonna

,

Menalque

,

MariaR

[1]:

skitter30

,

Not Voting [1]:

PenguinPower

,
-------------------------------------

lilith2013

[4]:

Menalque

,

Almost50

,

PenguinPower

,

Blake Belladonna

, -- [L-2]

Something_Smart

[2]:

skitter30

,

Firebringer

,

Not Voting [5]:

Bingle

,

MariaR

,

Something_Smart

,

lilith2013

,

Datisi

,
-------------------------------------

lilith2013

[4]:

Menalque

,

Almost50

,

PenguinPower

,

Blake Belladonna

, -- [L-2]

Something_Smart

[3]:

skitter30

,

Firebringer

,

Bingle

,

Not Voting [4]:

MariaR

,

Something_Smart

,

lilith2013

,

Datisi

,
-------------------------------------

MariaR

[3]:

skitter30

,

Almost50

,

Datisi

,

lilith2013

[2]:

MariaR

,

PenguinPower

,

Something_Smart

[2]:

Firebringer

,

Bingle

,

Firebringer

[1]:

Blake Belladonna

,

Not Voting [3]:

Something_Smart

,

lilith2013

,

Menalque

,
-------------------------------------

MariaR

[4]:

skitter30

,

Almost50

,

Datisi

,

Menalque

, -- [L-2]

lilith2013

[2]:

MariaR

,

PenguinPower

,

Something_Smart

[2]:

Firebringer

,

Bingle

,

Firebringer

[1]:

Blake Belladonna

,

Blake Belladonna

[1]:

lilith2013

,

Not Voting [1]:

Something_Smart

,
-------------------------------------

lilith2013

[5]:

PenguinPower

,

Blake Belladonna

,

MariaR

,

Almost50

,

skitter30

, — [L-1]

MariaR

[2]:

Datisi

,

Menalque

,

Something_Smart

[1]:

Firebringer

,

Blake Belladonna

[1]:

lilith2013

,

Not Voting [2]:

Something_Smart

,

Bingle

,
-------------------------------------

lilith2013

[6]:

PenguinPower

,

MariaR

,

Almost50

,

Bingle

,

Firebringer

,

Menalque

, — HAMMER

MariaR

[1]:

Datisi

,

Blake Belladonna

[1]:

lilith2013

,

Firebringer

[1]:

Blake Belladonna

,

Not Voting [2]:

Something_Smart

,

skitter30

,
-------------------------------------

[Menalque]

Like, looking at that, it really looks like Firebringer and bingle did not want lilith, but both hopped on by the time she was becoming inevitable -- worth noting that by the time they were on, both Blake and skitter were *essentially* on anyway. skitter only unvoiced to avoid a quick end to day, Blake because she was worried about the vengeful claim

[Menalque]

A50, what put you on a PR read on me?

[Menalque]

and is there anywhere in your ISO that you thinks shows that you had me as a PR? either through crumb, soft, or just the way you were interacting with me?

[Menalque]

hey, also, @a50 has skitter ever misread you?

[Menalque]

Mena do you want me to go over why I think Peng is so town for you

I would really, really like that, yes

[Menalque]

hey, also, @a50 has skitter ever misread you?

She's been doing that for a few games now. She leans to SR me more nowadays, actually.

Whereabouts most recently?

[Menalque]

Hmmm

[Menalque]

Plus, we've seen how he reacts in pure anger when he went at you and even apologized after the fact. That leads me to believe that also wasn't faked. Yes, scum can get angry. But Peng doesn't strike me as the type to get mad for being scumread in a game of mafia. Now if he's getting misrepped as town? I can see it.

Get where I'm going?

Y-es, I just don’t know if I’m totally convinced yet

[Menalque]

I’m mulling

I’m gonna mull for a little bit

[Menalque]

If Mena hard tells me to lynch PP because he's that confident in it I will not selfishly hold up the game to my own reads. But A50 agrees he's town as well. What's your and S_S thoughts on him?

N-on DON’T PUT THAT PRESSURE ON ME MARIA, TELL ME YOU’RE STUBBORNLY STICKING TO YOUR OWN READS NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS

[Menalque]

I think both you and Mena make compelling arguments for PP town.

Err

Where did I do this?

[Menalque]

Do you mean the bit where I said “I’m not sure if he makes sense with the VCA” or the bit where I said “I kinda liked that he was funny this page”?

[Menalque]

I think it’s perfectly likely he might have used it, specifically the ninja component

WHY WOULD I USE THE NINJA N2 WHEN I EITHER KNEW THERE WAS A RISK OF FAILING THE KILL OR SHOT PB AND ALSO HAD A CLAIMED VIG WHO NEEDED TO DIE?

A50 is arguing that the answer to that question is because I somehow knew all of: "It was a JK, not a doc. The vig who had every remaining scum in her bottom tier of reads was going to shoot the one least likely to endgame. There was an unclaimed tracker who would be targeting me."

I could not have known any of those to the degree I would have been comfortable acting on them. I wouldn't have let FB die because leaving him alive to be lynched doesn't hurt me and if he does get lynched I can bus him for towncred. Me being scum here presumes simultaneously that I am impossibly good at being scum AND impossibly bad at being scum.

Because of the exact reasons I already laid out...?

You’d know that there were other PRs in the game beyond skitter and that the statistically most likely would be a tracker. You’d know that they were likely to be on you. I wasn’t looking for PR crumbs but you probably were so it’s probable that you picked up Blake crumbing that she was on you N1.

If you’d roleblocked on N2 I would have tracked you and caught you and firebringer would have been lynched too. Is it suboptimal to let skitter shoot and maybe hit you and if not you then likely your scumbuddy? Absolutely. But faced with losing for sure if you didn’t do that, it’s not a bad option for you

[Menalque]

What do you mean I can't just shift the blame if I'm wrong to Mena? Boo.

I think most of us are in agreement that S_S is 1 of the 2 lynches right? Or do people have another combo to talk about that doesn't include S_S?

I’m thinking the answer may be bingle -> A50 but unsure

[Menalque]

If bingle flips town his argument for SS!town is definitely good faith and not a pocket

Which means if you’re super confident in PP!town that you just lynch A50 there and it’s probably winning

[Menalque]

I’m not sure bingle would be denying how much sense it makes for him to use the ninja and let skitter kill if he were town, plus he seems super, super invested in not being the lynch today and I think if he had the conviction of what he’s saying he should be doing what A50 is doing and saying “lynch me today so long as you lynch A50 tomorrow!”

Like I think the JK claim would be super obvious to scum!bingle so idk why he’s making out that he’d have to be this amazing crumb hunter to figure out that (1) there’s a JK and (2) that it’s Blake

Also I can totally see him telling lilith to claim vengeful as a distancing tool because oBvIoUsLy sHe cAn’T bE BiNgLe’S pArtNeR wiTh a fAkeClAiM LiKe tHaT, and then him trying to get the credit for you being cleared when I highly doubt Blake wouldn’t have done that anyway

[Menalque]

super, super invested in not being the lynch today

Yes. I am invested in not being the lynch when I should be mechanically cleared. And I am going to give you so much shit in the post game for even having needed to have this conversation.

You’re not cleared, stop trying to act as if you’re cleared! There is at *best* a softclear on you

There are two very viable explanations for you being scum namely (1) you used a ninja to kill skitter or (2) you got firebringer to kill skitter

If a softclear on datisi wasnt a reason to not lynch her, why should it be one on you? Especially when you’re exactly the calibre of scumplayer to try and make a big brain play like this

You being scum fits with so much — VCA, my initial sense that you were off, gobbles’ feelings of the same, skitter AND Blake both having you as one of their top scumreads — and you’re asking me to disregard all of that because of what *isn’t even a clear*

[Menalque]

Like I think the JK claim would be super obvious to scum!bingle so idk why he’s making out that he’d have to be this amazing crumb hunter to figure out that (1) there’s a JK and (2) that it’s Blake

If scumme knows there's a JK and that it's Blake why would I risk blake stopping the skitter kill in order to play around a potential tracker?

Your argument is that I knew both you and blake were PRs, both you and blake would target how you did, AND wasn't worried about skitter killing one of me/FB.

It's not finding one crumb, it's picking out every PR accurately and what they are and what they were going to do at night.

Because Blake already said she was unlikely to block you that night! She said that you were unlikely scum /at that point/

Plus you didn’t need to know it was me, you just had to suspect a tracker in the game to decide to use ninja or to get fb to kill. You are after all the person who was pushing the line hardest that ninja would probably have been used on N1 by scum.

And I’m not saying you WANTED to do any of this. I’m saying that being that you and fb were both bottom of the lynchpool, you were FORCED to roll the dice on getting a false inno (or at least not a guilty) and you knew from the jk crumb that skitt wouldn’t be protected. Therefore one of you had to try to deepwolf it and I don’t see you ever delegating that to fb considering the strength of your scumgame and the fact that you know you have a strong scumgame

[Menalque]

super, super invested in not being the lynch today

Yes. I am invested in not being the lynch when I should be mechanically cleared. And I am going to give you so much shit in the post game for even having needed to have this conversation.

And this is just blatant AtE (or maybe appeal to insecurity) to try to get me to doubt myself

If A50 is scum then it would mean Blake and skitter having been totally off pretty much all game. I doubt that sincerely. If you’re scum, they were right for most of the game and only begrudgingly let go of you (in Blake’s case) because she mistakenly believed you were actually inno’d

[Menalque]

And, what's more? The paranoia that PP has that A50 is feeding is based on me feeding doubt on what should have been a mechanical clear on PP to lynch A50. Which is exactly what is happening to me in this game.

...how is roleblocking the mechanical clear on PP a condemnation of A50 more than it is of you? That’s exactly what you or anyone would do as scum. Which is another valid point: why does anyone decide to not roleblock skitter N2? Why does anyone not tell lilith not to claim vengeful?

These are bad mechanics SO OBVIOUS that there’s a very good chance they’re that bad on purpose, to make it look like someone with an incredibly strong reputation for mechanics couldn’t possibly be behind them.

It’s exactly like what I did in mini normal 2119 when by playing a very supoptimal defence of my scumbuddy everyone said “nah that’s too scummy for mena, he’d know how it would look and he’s good enough as scum to avoid it”. That game is also relevant because we would have been fucked had datisi not gotten what seemed to be a false inno on me due to using my role at just the right time

I’m not willing to just let you do the same thing

[Menalque]

Especially when it’s so likely that yes you would know the exact time to use each role for maximum mechanical benefits

[Menalque]

I think your play is reminiscent of Detective Penguin @bingle, and you saying that you’re just going to dismiss me from now on with images from children’s books reminds me of your brushing off of scepticism there by posting “teacher talking from Charlie Brown” videos

[Menalque]

i think you're trying to line up mislynches here

I’m Menalque’s big book of mafia it says that the person accusing someone else of chaining mislynches has a 17% increased chance of being scum so err — nuh-uh

always trust the big book of mafia, mena, always

[Menalque]

what do we think of this page + the following?

viewtopic.php?f=51&t=83235&start=2075

[Menalque]

can someone please help me out on trying to figure out who the fuck Blake targeted N1 and N2

[Menalque]

Why is everyone still alive so bad at obvtowning yeesh

[Menalque]

Give me back the turkey!

[Menalque]

Also give me skitter again so I can make her make decisions for me D:

[Menalque]

You’re not obvtown at all!

*cri*

[Menalque]

None of u are even trying though

Like whoever is town amongst the 4 of you (and I know it’s 3 of you!!!) are just chillin and waiting for me and Maria to decide who the lynches should be and just kinda *gojng with the flow* despite everything being really unclear based on your play from prior days!

Like I have a big argument with bingle and no-one even takes a position! Like what! Why!

[Menalque]

Like yes only 2 of us are confirmed but that doesn’t mean we should have to entirely have responsibility for keeping the thread moving and making decisions

I’m pretty sure one of you is trying to pocket someone else which explains all the weird X townreading Y townreading Z but which one of you fuckers is it?
I can’t tell!!!

[Menalque]

I've said I will lynch SS and Bingle. What else do you want from me?

Try to sell me on why it is SS and Bingle and not the monkey!

[Menalque]

So bingle is like he was in detective penguin?

[Menalque]

But then A50 was like "it has to be between me and JingleBingle" and now he's voting SS so idk

So is A50 scum?

I could see the monkey being scum

[Menalque]

Like yes only 2 of us are confirmed but that doesn’t mean we should have to entirely have responsibility for keeping the thread moving and making decisions

I’m pretty sure one of you is trying to pocket someone else which explains all the weird X townreading Y townreading Z but which one of you fuckers is it?
I can’t tell!!!

I mean the problem is that pretty much by their nature I don't understand the PP townreads at all, but they are there. If it were solely up to me, we would kill PP an A50 because the mechanical argument for Bingle being town is pretty sound.

But it's not up to me, and furthermore, my opinion isn't the only one that's relevant. If Maria is locked on PP town, I'm not going to challenge that opinion, but that doesn't really leave me anything else I can do.

What do you think of Maria’s case for PP being town then?

[Menalque]

Why is it wrong and if you think it doesn’t make sense why aren’t you arguing with her about it

[Menalque]

Are you actually just going to ignore me now bingle

[Menalque]

You’re aware I can’t see this image as daily news is blocked in Europe due to their cookie policy?

[Menalque]

@maria do you think scum!bingle would have a tantrum like this?

[Menalque]

Bingle I hope you’re aware that I was shitpushing you and I’m sorry if it’s frustrated you this much but I needed to be sure and I would really like to cooperate with you to try and solve the game

[Menalque]

*knowingly shitpushing you, as in I didn’t believe a lot of what I was saying but I thought it would prompt you to respond in a way that I hoped would clarify your alignment because I did have *doubts* based on my respect for your scumgame

[Menalque]

I was also *sort of* hoping that scum might try to support my push on bingle but no one rose to it so idk what to think there

[Menalque]

Is it better to lynch SS or A50 first?

[Menalque]

Am I crazy for thinking we should figure out who blake jailkept on N1 and on N2 before we lynch today

Because that feels fairly important

[Menalque]

okay I have an anime avi now, you're obliged to tell me if ur scum, that's the law uwu

[Menalque]

uwu

promise I won't lynch you if you scumclaim!

uwu

(am I doing it right?)

[Menalque]

I wash my hands of this

VOTE: S_S

[Menalque]

If it's not S_S probably lynch A50 tomorrow and if it's bingle or PP let it be noted for the record that (1) no-one was really interested in engaging with me on whether Blake was crumbing a JK on bingle and the implications of that and (2) I said I thought PP's reactions to being scumread were weird multiple times and that I thought he was reminiscent of his scum play in the game I modded only to have multiple town players argue with me about this and tell me they were town reactions

[Menalque]

I think that the final remaining scum is within Bingle and Something_Smart in almost all scenarios.

sure

[Menalque]

Can I...can I hammer now?

sure*

[Menalque]

okay, is it over, did we win?

[Menalque]

Wait - Maria isn't on. I thought she was on.

uwu

UNVOTE:

[Menalque]

you know what's gonna make it even worse?

[Menalque]

the fact that

[Menalque]

in a moment

[Menalque]

I'll have a pagetop!

[Menalque]

Who fears you enough of the players left alive to try and kill you N1 bingle?

[Menalque]

Who here kills for reads though?

Like I’m not convinced anyone here kills for who has good reads on D1 vs who is likely to have good reads later and who will control the game.

Fmpov there are 4 scenarios unless I’m wrong about Blake’s crumb:

(1) Blake JK’d you and there was no scum kill because scum tried to kill you
(2) Blake JK’d you and there was no scum kill because you were the scum making the kill
(3) Blake JK’d you and scum killed pb
(4) Blake JK’d you and scum decided to actively no kill

[Menalque]

In (2) I guess you would have had to have been the one making the kill, without using anyone of your JOAT abilities, then used ninja N2 and roleblock N3 so yes it does seem unlikely because you also wouldn’t have used strongman N1 and it seems -utility for you to make the kill N1 if you weren’t ninja’d? Although flip side you would have been the most TR member of the scumteam at that point so maybe it would make more sense

[Menalque]

So maybe (1) and (3) are the most likely, as we kinda just wrote off pb being killed by scum after skitter claimed, and it would be very odd for scum to no kill just for the heck of it

[Menalque]

Engaged you on the Blake JK on Bingle, and I said I didn't think it was the case, and you dismissed me.

I asked you who Blake (someone who as far as I know tends to crumb) was on if she wasn’t on bingle and iirc you never gave me an alternative to it being bingle?

[Menalque]

Also, who tf was she on on N2?

Can’t be fb (he was shot)
Can’t be datisi (would be cleared or at least softcleared?)
Can’t be bingle (he didn’t strongman)
Can’t be skitter (she shot)
Can’t be me (I got a result)

[Menalque]

Can’t be Blake herself obviously
Can’t be maria or she wouldn’t have gone on her again?

Does that mean Blake was on one of (PP, SS, A50) on N2 by process of elimination?

[Menalque]

I think that the final remaining scum is within Bingle and Something_Smart in almost all scenarios.

If Datisi is not the last scum, at this point I believe it is exactly MariaR.

And that's only if the scumteam were doing really weird things. Every unconfirmed player has a significantly better voting record than Datisi does.

I feel like what happened inbetween these posts could be important maybe?

[Menalque]

As of right now I personally think I want to lynch the monkey the most

[Menalque]

My big dilemma is idk whether to trust my own read there or to defer to the reads that skitter and Blake had on him

[Menalque]

Inb4 it’s maria and Blake forgot to submit her night action and that’s why everything has been so screwy

[Menalque]

I forgot how much I fucking hate mafia jesus

[Menalque]

VOTE: A50?
VOTE: bingle?
VOTE: S_S?
VOTE: pinguino?

UNVOTE:

[Menalque]

Hey datisi I think I finally understand your lylo pains btw

[Menalque]

VOTE: A50

[Menalque]

I don’t really think it’s that unreasonable that I’m voting you given that I haven’t TR you all game and have just been trusting in skitter and Blake?

[Menalque]

UNVOTE:

Not quite ready to end day yet

[Menalque]

VOTE: almost50

Hammer away bird friend

Good luck to all tomorrow if I’m wrong

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Please remember to think about and fully discuss the jailkeep xoxo

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I don’t really believe that A50 is town. I feel more like he’s playing in a way that he’s compelled to play because of who needs to be lynched for a win than that he’s naturally developing his reads over time

I am not certain about this and have major doubts especially given the strength of the TRs on him from skitter and Blake

But I don’t really see how anyone else is scum now

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Redoing the VCA I think Datisi makes the most sense as the JOAT. As of now it's Datisi > S_S >> Bingle for me. PP is TOTALLY off the table for me here. I mean, TOTALLY.

I already explained the JOAT must've used the RB shot on N1 already.

is this just because skitt's shot went through last night?

@a50

Yes. But it's like, if it's you (i.e. not S_S) then you might've hoped she would be shooting S_S instead? My brain is going wound in circles at this point.

i just wanna point out you cannot argue that (1) JOAT used their roleblock on night 1 and (2) datisi is the JOAT who didn't move on night 1 simultaneously.

if it's you (i.e. not S_S) then you might've hoped she would be shooting S_S instead

Like.. if S_S i JOAT then I can't see him not blocking skitter's shot unless he had already used up the RB shot. Period.

New line: If it's Datisi then he didn't block skitter hoping that she will shoot S_S and not FB.

Two separate thoughts of two separate suspects

VOTE: Bingle

Just to make a statement. I acknowledge the loss already and congratulate you on yet another scum!win over me.

@Menalque: JFTR, PP doesn't block you and shoot BB here, and especially not when you have announced being on him. Instead, PP would hust stay put and holster, thus implicating Maria. The RB on you was done precisely to prevent a hrd clear on PP when somebody does die.

Now I dunno why Bingle didn't think of THAT. He probably wanted the game to end faster?? I dunno. All I know is (1) if you do the VCA assuming Bingle is red it makes MUCH more sense than with the assumption PP is red, (2) Bingle is back to his favourite hobby: shake "monkeyman" just before LyLo. Did you notice how he has been TRing me ALL game, only to come TODAY to the conclusion my voting pattern looks bad?? And (3) Bingle already said if it was me, PP & him in LyLo that he will convince me to vote PP to make it equal. I -and PP- know exactly what he is referring to, but -also- it was a "soft scum claim" to refer to in post-game when he goes "nya nya nya, I pulled yet another one on you two, and especially on A50".

I was going to stay silent and let you guys mislynch whoever you wanted today and then vote Bingle in LyLo, but with your declaration you are OK handing Bingle the win I am afraid he may lynch PP and kill S_S using the Ninja shot and have you side by him in LyLo.

I suggest I should be the lynch today if all 3 of you vow to lynch Bingle in LyLo after I have been confirmed. That is my one and only request.

This is a really weird approach to my eyes. If his thinking was dats -> S_S -> bingle, why does he push bingle immediately at the start of today? And to me, that’s likely because he knows that if S_S is lynched today he’s on the chopping block tomorrow

Whereas if bingle is lynched, then yes he looks bad but S_S is probably the perfect slot to be going up against in mylo/lylo if he’s town

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Also, of the people who let skitter shoot: A50 knows she’s never shooting him. She might shoot his partner who he’s already distanced from (but very weakly if you actually check his ISO) or she might shoot bingle, either way I think those are okay outcomes for A50 in a way that I honestly doubt is acceptable for Bingle when he still has a roleblock. I also just think that mechanically S_S is unlikely to do that, and I think bingle is a particular threat to scum!A50 because he doesn’t think that S_S/lilith is S/S and is likely to oppose that in a lylo scenario (which he’s done). If that logic is good, it comes down to (A50, you) and rn I just can’t see you as scum

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I don’t see how your overall game really makes sense, whereas A50 was early on lilith but then changed over to S_S with the statement that he was a “better flip because if lilith is town she’ll re-evaluate”. Then pushed María once S_S went down instead of changing back to lilith which seems a little odd to me. And then changes back to Maria later on in what looks optically very good but which doesn’t necessarily fit with the story fmpov — why not go back to lilith once S_S goes down? I think he wanted to see how maria would go and then change for the bus credit

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VOTE: bingle

Sorry, skitts, but I'm not gonna sheep you on this one. Bingle not trying to take control of the game is town indicative of him. Of course, he may not feel the need to do it because the town is doing scum's work for them, but in that case the other scum is/are in our town reads, which I find to be an even harder proposition. Like, does something like Bingle + PP/menalque (or both) look feasible to you?

The question is: If we were pushing a scum partner of Bingle, why did not Bingle intervene to assist his p and redirect the pressure elsewhere. Bingle is pretty good at directing the flow when he is scum.

This also seems... inconsistent with his later take on bingle? Like bingle didn’t do any of the things that A50 thinks bingle does as scum so why does he open today pushing bingle instead of pushing S_S when his prior posting has indicated that he should believe that the game ends with lynching S_S

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And finally: it felt performative? The “please lynch me if only so that my top scumread is lynched in lylo” when everyone knows that basically never happens, follows by him flipping back to S_S when he said he thought bingle’s reaction to my push couldn’t be scum, followed by him calling me out on voting him which I’m dubbing AtI or Appeal to Insecurity which is when you try to get someone to not vote you by bringing up how you’ll give them shit postgame

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Bingle is pretty good at directing the flow, and yet bingle more or less probably /didn’t/ do that this game as evidenced by how he didn’t get out of the lynchpool until I mech cleared him

So given that, I don’t really see why he feels that way about bingle being scum later on, and I think he’s been trying to pocket you because I don’t think you’re as obvtown as he’s been suggesting. Which makes a lot of sense in an endgame where he needs you to vote bingle > him, which I think is where we’d be headed in a world where mylo is (you, Maria, bingle, A50)

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My "broad" lynch pool is in Bingle/S_S/Datisi, but realistically I can't see past S_S being the JOAT. The only time S_S voted was for gobble, He even refused to vote lillith while being the counterwagon.

Also S_S is the only one who had the motive to actually shoot skitter here. Bingle would have probably let her shoot another night at least (unlikely for her to shoot him and he likes to play it risky anyway), and Datisi wasn't even in skitter's pool for shots, so even less likely to have killed her over Blake.

I also agree that both Maria & Blake are mechanically most likely town (but I'll keep SRing Maria anyway because it's a ...)

Spoiler:

Redoing the VCA I think Datisi makes the most sense as the JOAT. As of now it's Datisi > S_S >> Bingle for me. PP is TOTALLY off the table for me here. I mean, TOTALLY.

I just feel like there’s a pattern here of A50’s reads adjusting to where he needs them to be rather than what actually makes sense for him

It’s kinda the same thing on D1 where he said he was 50% on gobbles as a VT but then pre-emptively hammered him

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So in conclusion, looking back at the game: I, individually, think A50 makes the most sense and would like him lynched. If he’s town, I think that scum is very likely in S_S and PP and idk which but I’d probably lynch S_S because so many people have called him scum throughout and I only feel like I wanna break with consensus sufficiently here on A50

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I’ve gone back through multiple times and the only person who the game makes sense to me if they’re scum is A50 at this point

Idgi if it’s PP or S_S tbh

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Son of a-that's gonna take some getting used to.

Exile time?

Tell me about it

Go for it, let’s execute a monkey

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And if I’m wrong sorry for the hell that tomorrow will be

All I can say is this is my best guess in good faith even though I know I’m likely being fooled

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If bingle is scum then kudos on a perfect mechanical set of plays

If PP is scum... guess we should have lynched you instead of the monkey

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Fuck

Executed you*

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Also, Maria, I swear TO GOD if it turns out you’re scum somehow and Blake just forgot to jailkeep you imma cry

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Hey it’s a lEgItiMaTe cOnCeRn

And now we wait I guess

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Gib flip?

Gib sweet release of death in consequence of my sins?

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Thank you for modding, ofhrz! Thank you everyone for coming to play in this game with me!

Sorry @A50 for the mislynch, @bingle for the shitpush, @datisi for not defending you more, @skitter and @blake for not trusting your reads more

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Gib scum pt?

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Probably my favorite PL this year. Thanks for the invite Mena, and sorry again for going over the top.

S’okay. I really thought you’d played more passively in MFP than I guess you had and thought it could be the same here. I was feeling better about you by the end though!

Would play with everyone here again for sure

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Gib scum pt?

Gib all PTs?

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Datisi u realise that if you made all ur pt posts in the main thread you’d be incredibly obvtown right?

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No-one ever found my crumb, did they?

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Well, since you asked so cutely:

Subject: Newbie 1982 | Cellular Automata | Over

Regarding the last line, you’d be surprised how much that happens.

Subject: Micro 900: Autumnal Mafia (Game Complete)

would you guys prefer a few medium sized posts or one monster sized post

okay, but what about those 3 gives you gut reads on them and not on others? like what in their posting has given you those gut reads?

would it still be gut reads if i were able to explain it with logic and whatnot?

also, your readslist better be damn good how much you're hyping it up.

ignore the last period now it looks more aggressive than intended and i don't like it

Regarding the last line, you’d be surprised how much that happens.

also, regarding my readslist:

would you guys prefer a few medium sized posts or one monster sized post

NB: may not, in fact, reach true monster size should that option be selected

So I took quotes from when people where trackers (or a backup tracker) in other games, then repeated those lines verbatim here

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i am very disappointed.

I knew u would be i read ur pt