Open 781: JK9++ Game Over!

[Something_Smart]

At this point Blake, S_S, and (mostly) bingle are all vanities. If you’re on one you should pick a proper wagon or try to turn the person you’re on into a real wagon if you have a lot of conviction that they’re scum. S_S needs to make an actual vote

I mean if I were to vote right now it would probably be on Bingle. I don't really agree that voting a vanity is bad here, nor that voting is imperative. I do think we can make progress without dueling wagons, though I wouldn't be opposed to voting I don't think.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, choosing between lilith and Maria who would you rather vote?

...lilith?

I want to hear more from her first though.

[Something_Smart]

It's pretty much a crapshoot, I have no strong read on either one. I said lilith because her defense of me felt like it could have been whiteknighting and her activity while not exactly scummy is consistent with the archetype of the bus target. And honestly I just have a tendency to townread Maria when she gets wagoned early because she's usually good enough to avoid it as scum? That wasn't true in G&R IV, though.

It's pretty minor things either way. I don't want to vote either one yet, and I want to hear more from both but especially lilith since she's been so absent.

[Something_Smart]

Early as in early day, not before there's been much content.

I think I've already talked about the world where lilith is scum? It's the one where her buddies have decided to bus her for some reason or another, probably to make themselves look good, and they chose to commit to it even when my wagon was looking more likely. This is definitely a play she's capable of making, and probably one she'd agree to since she's a good team player.

Do you think that world isn't plausible or likely?

[Something_Smart]

in other news, i attempted to run errands for the first time since quarantine started, which turned into an unmitigated disaster. i’m now stranded and not really sure how i’m going to get home? my train is all fucked up so it’s probably going to take me two hours to get home, and i’m carrying three large and extremely heavy bags. so today was/is fun

Big rip. Hope everything is all right.

[Something_Smart]

I don't really see why scum chose to bus Lilith for ~*looking good*~ reasons on D2 when they could just... not do that? like the best case I can see is maaaaybe going for distancing and then getting stuck as the wagon grew but like... I pushed the wagon so I know it wasn't started from a scum-motivated perspective which makes that less likely imo. I don't think what you're saying is impossible, but I think it's more likely that (provided my TRs are broadly correct) scum decided to straddle across two wagons being pushed by town than just bus lilith for the hell of it

You're probably right. I tend to derive an undue amount of glee as scum from screwing with VCA and so it's definitely the type of thing I would do. I also tend to bus pretty hard when I feel like the partner is going to go down sooner or later, and I would expect there are a decent amount of people who have that similar philosophy, but you're probably right that it's less common than I'm making it out to be.

[Something_Smart]

ss do u think it's more likely that lilith got bussed or that you're both tvt

I mean statistically town is more likely but I'm assuming you're asking if she's > rand scum or < rand scum. I guess probably < rand scum just because yeah Menalque's got a point that most scumteams probably wouldn't be hardbussing lilith for shits and giggles, and if she wasn't being hardbussed she could probably have pivoted onto me and I probably would have been lynched.

[Something_Smart]

Also if I see you posting a bunch around site but not claiming I’m treating it as a scumclaim

Lol, haven't we been over this before

[Something_Smart]

I explained to you why I was doing what I was doing?

[Something_Smart]

...So why not just ask her to either claim or explain why she doesn't want to?

[Something_Smart]

Threats make people go on the defensive.

That's rarely a good thing.

[Something_Smart]

Definitely not stolen from ofrhz

i'm finding this part very amusing.

Actually, it explains exactly what happened, lmao.

[Something_Smart]

Oh.

That makes your miscalculation about the chance of a vig make a lot more sense.

[Something_Smart]

i’m vengeful.

Do you have any final thoughts?

[Something_Smart]

ngl i think that vengeful is a bit suspect? odds of there being 2 K prs aren't super high, right?

Yes, it's hugely suspect.

[Something_Smart]

Let skitter30 vig her.

Eh? If she's vengeful it's better for her to be lynched than vigged.

[Something_Smart]

i much prefer blake especially given that she unvoted me when i think it’s pretty clear i would vengekill her

I mean I guess she'd do that as either alignment?

[Something_Smart]

No it is not.

[Something_Smart]

If I flip two coins, the probability of getting at least one heads is 3/4. The probability of getting two heads, given that I got at least one, is 1/3.

This is a simplified example but the concept is the same.

[Something_Smart]

That's also not true, because if I only flipped one coin, the probability of getting heads is 1/2, still greater than the 1/3 of getting two if we already knew there was one.

[Something_Smart]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

Can you rephrase 3502 using "exactly" where you intend to have it so I know what you're arguing?

[Something_Smart]

i don’t think you’re looking at this right? for the coin flip scenario, it’s the probability of getting exactly 2 heads, not at least one?

Can you rephrase 3502 using "exactly" where you intend to have it so I know what you're arguing?

it doesn’t really work the same because there’s only two coin flips. let’s say there are 3 coin flips.

the probability of having 2 or more coins flip heads, given that one has already flipped heads, is basically equivalent to ignoring the first coin flip and calculating the probability of one or more heads given that we are now flipping the coin twice. the previous flip has no bearing on the probability of the two other flips. the probability that i am a K, given that skitter is also a K, is equivalent to the probability that i am a K given that skitter is literally any role - the probabilities are independent

I think I see what you're doing.

For the coin example, you're assuming that we have flipped one coin and observed it to be heads, then we flipped the others. This gives different results from just assuming "one of them is heads."

As an example, suppose I have a red coin and a blue coin. If I flip them both, then the probability of getting two heads given that one coin was heads is 1/3. But the probability of getting two heads given that the RED coin was heads are 1/2. It matters whether or not you name the coin that was heads.

And in this case, we have no way of naming WHICH letter skitter got (as in, the first, second, third, etc.). Therefore, the probabilities aren't independent.

[Something_Smart]

S_S, how do I do the math on what the likelihood of different setups is?

What specifically? The general rule is that more copies of a letter are less likely and 3-4 T's are expected.

[Something_Smart]

This has been a pleasant read.

[Something_Smart]

Yes, scum who is *checks notes* fakeclaiming PR in an open setup with 2 mislynches remaining before lylo
Checks out, makes sense

Yeah, I was going to say the best move is to massclaim VT/not VT to ensure that we know where we stand, but that may not be necessary.

We should however probably say that you and Blake should retract now if you're fakeclaiming, or you will be lynched later if another PR flips.

[Something_Smart]

Skitter fakeclaimed in an open and made it to lylo.

If you're talking about Venrob's PYP, that wasn't really a fakeclaim because she had the other half of the role she claimed.

[Something_Smart]

We’re not doing datisi or bingle when there are mechanical reasons to think that they’re both more likely to be town than scum

I assume this isn't what you meant, because there's a mechanical reason to think that everyone is more likely town than scum, namely that there are (presumably) seven townies alive and one scum.

But even if you meant "there's a mechanical reason to think that they are more likely town than they would be by chance", that isn't the be-all end-all; it's just another probability to factor in. So it makes them less likely to be the best lynch, but they shouldn't be off the table.

[Something_Smart]

I’m not fakeclaiming and have a crumb of my exact role from D1 that will also fit with my progression D2 on datisi and I crumbed both of my results quite blatantly too

[Something_Smart]

They should be off the table for today because the only person who should be on the table today is PP who has (1) no mechanical reason to be town (2) a fucking awful iso (3) decided to make an absolutely awful push on me today the moment he thought there might be support/decided to start misrepping the way I’ve played throughout the day and to diminish/cast shade on my contributions and (4) who seems positively desperate to survive when compared to, let’s say bingle

I suppose that's fair.

[Something_Smart]

Right now can you make the vote I need you to make so we can lynch him and end this game?

Not tonight. I feel like it won't hurt to let everyone take a step back from the thread.

Tomorrow, if there's still significant support, then maybe. This probably won't hold the wagon back since it's doubtful enough people would vote tonight anyway.

Also, I want to review the things PP did yesterday that I thought were towny, and I won't have a chance to do that tonight.

[Something_Smart]

Oh this is wifom and if you need any other reason to clear me: Lilith looked to me for advice when we were scum together and she probably would've done it here too if we were partners. If you think I let her claim vengeful

This logic should apply to most people, right? Like I certainly would have told her vengeful was a bad claim, I think anyone she asked would, so she presumably did it without asking first.

[Something_Smart]

But it comes down to — there are good reasons for /literally everyone to be town apart from datisi and PP and datisi has a somewhat mechanical clear on her PLUS she may not have done a lot but she also hasn’t made any awful pushes/

Was your target on Datisi N1 or N2?

[Something_Smart]

Oh, someone should ask if JK targetting the SMan making the kill would stop the kill. It *should* but I don't want to assume and be bitten.

No it shouldn't? Aren't strongman kills immune to being roleblocked?

[Something_Smart]

Sad Penguin Says: Sorry mena...I was a bit over the top last night

I just don't see how you believe what you are saying about my play given that you know me and what you're asserting is pretty antithetical to my actual play, so it comes across as disingenuous and manufactured and I don't see why town!mena does that.

UNVOTE:

mechanics and stuff blah blah blah

LOL

[Something_Smart]

The logic for Bingle being cleared is that it's crazy for scum to use neither strongman nor roleblock last night, when they already had a missed kill. This is assuming that they did have a missed kill, but that seems pretty likely to me. The only thing I can think of is that they might have seen what they thought was a PR soft from PB, but it must have been pretty convincing because PB was pretty widely scumread.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah.

I'm assuming Menalque is tracker because the things that he's said are really only consistent with that.

[Something_Smart]

I don't see how that clears Datisi though.

It doesn't.

[Something_Smart]

@bingle and @S_S I’d like to hear from both of you on whether you think it would be optimal for scum to make a kill using ninja on N1 or to save that for later

Well, we can assume that they didn't use strongman on N1. Using the roleblock without any PR claims sounds silly. So either they used the ninja, or they didn't use any JOAT powers and probably the JOAT wouldn't have been the one to make the kill.

I would probably say it isn't optimal since the odds of the tracker finding you on N1 are very low, but it is plausible. But regardless Datisi is definitely not cleared.

[Something_Smart]

S_S what do you think about who’s scum? Not just mechanics but who do you think is scum by play at this point?

I mean, it doesn't really matter at this point? I still think A50 is town, so that just leaves Datisi, Maria, and PP, none of which I have strong feelings on, but from my POV if we kill all three it's most likely a win.

[Something_Smart]

except it does matter? even if we collectively agree a50 is town, it's still a pool of 4, where we have 3 lynches. saying "fmpov kill all 3" is not exactly helpful?

I mean what am I gonna say, that you should kill me? We can cross that bridge if we come to it, but ideally we won't have to.

Confirming that I am not a galaxybrain PR.

[Something_Smart]

Assuming Blake didn’t change her plan, this means that Maria is hard cleared

Yeah, I agree. Blake would know better than to switch her action.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I already said that I thought that lilith was being bussed if she was scum. Clearly something screwy was going on with those wagons no mater what.

[Something_Smart]

So do you think it’s PP?

Most likely, yes.

[Something_Smart]

the VCA didn’t make a lot of sense to me with PP as the final scum

Why is this?

[Something_Smart]

I wonder if dead thread is screaming at me for thinking about lynching someone I have a “didnt go anywhere” result on for N2 or if they’re applauding

I mean the fact of the matter is that the result is ambiguous. Odds are good the dead thread is biased by knowing the answer, so I wouldn't be worrying about them.

[Something_Smart]

That said, it's a point in Bingle's favor, and probably the strongest point anyone in {PP, Bingle, A50} has in their favor.

[Something_Smart]

With a caveat. That reasoning assumes that the scum's N1 kill failed and thus they knew there was a kill stopper of some sort, and furthermore it assumes that they thought it was some kind of protective.

If they either shot PB N1, or their kill did fail but they thought either they shot a hider or the person making the kill was jailkept, then they wouldn't have had a reason to use strongman N2, and indeed it would make sense to use ninja then.

So the question is, how likely do we think those scenarios are?

[Something_Smart]

Does that affect anything?

I suppose if that's the case, and scum figured out she was JK and jailed Bingle, then they would have known she wouldn't jail skitter and they could ninja kill skitter.

That seems fairly unlikely though?

[Something_Smart]

Well, I'm assuming that Blake stopped the NK, but it wouldn't be conclusive whether she targeted the person who attempted the NK or the target of it. She could easily have targeted Bingle and saved him from a kill.

[Something_Smart]

Thanks ofhrz!

lmao

I assume they parsed your question wrong. The answer is the tracker would see the visit.

[Something_Smart]

Oh, I actually didn’t mean to be sarcastic there, I thought that’s what she was saying by yup

Lol

[Something_Smart]

Okay so... who do you think would kill bingle N1 > Blake/skitter of the people still alive?

I don't think anyone here actively WOULDN'T do that. Looking back at his reads he had PP in his lowest tier of townreads and A50's slot in his PoE, so probably a slight preference for A50 there but nothing conclusive.

If he was targeted, it probably was in part because he was a strong player, but it was not purely because he was a strong player because yeah I would probably have expected that kill to fall on Blake. So it's a lot more complicated than just "he wouldn't be targeted over Blake or skitter unless scum had a specific reason to want him dead."

[Something_Smart]

But he also had both flipped scum in his PoE, so he could have been targeted for having accurate reads even if his PP read was wrong.

[Something_Smart]

Only I think both skitter and Blake had that too and I would say had more currency in controlling how the game was being run than bingle did at that point too

I don't know about skitter but I think Blake was somewhat suspected at that point.

Regardless I think getting this far in the weeds on who scum is likely to kill is probably a bad idea. Bingle is a strong player, he had good reads, he was a possible NK target. Maybe not the likeliest but we can't know what the scum were thinking; maybe they thought Blake and/or skitter would be mislynchable, or they would push who the scum wanted, or they thought Bingle was a PR, or something else.

[Something_Smart]

What

[Something_Smart]

We're past the point where obvtowning is really possible. People are too set in their opinions for anything that dynamic to happen.

[Something_Smart]

Like yes only 2 of us are confirmed but that doesn’t mean we should have to entirely have responsibility for keeping the thread moving and making decisions

I’m pretty sure one of you is trying to pocket someone else which explains all the weird X townreading Y townreading Z but which one of you fuckers is it?
I can’t tell!!!

I mean the problem is that pretty much by their nature I don't understand the PP townreads at all, but they are there. If it were solely up to me, we would kill PP an A50 because the mechanical argument for Bingle being town is pretty sound.

But it's not up to me, and furthermore, my opinion isn't the only one that's relevant. If Maria is locked on PP town, I'm not going to challenge that opinion, but that doesn't really leave me anything else I can do.

[Something_Smart]

If it were solely up to me, we would kill PP

and

A50 because the mechanical argument for Bingle being town is pretty sound.

EBWOP.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, I must be BRILLIANT in this game not to have her shoot Bingle for me on N3.

What would happen if she had? We'd be in the same position, except Bingle would be dead.

Notice anything?

[Something_Smart]

V/LA until Sunday

[Something_Smart]

It's a great case. It especially accounts for the part where I didn't roleblock skitter to make sure that she would shoot one of her scumreads, both of which were scum.

[Something_Smart]

@mod can I proxy my vote while I'm on V/LA?

[Something_Smart]

No it couldn't? Wasn't skitter's shot pool Firebringer and me?

[Something_Smart]

So anyone else didn't block her because they thought she would shoot me.

I didn't block her because... why?

[Something_Smart]

Oh?

Who was it who said that then?

[Something_Smart]

Like where did that idea come from. No way in hell I'm looking back for it, but that was being treated as like a fact for a while. Did you not ever realize that?

[Something_Smart]

Also S_S is the only one who had the motive to actually shoot skitter here.

Apart from, y’know, firebringer?

I think skitter was ALWAYS going to shoot in FB/S_S anyway. My question would be WHY did the JOAT not block her? And I guess occam's razor is that they already used the RB shot on N1

[Something_Smart]

A50 have you ever heard of a hypothetical statement.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: A50

Unless I hear back on the proxying question I should vote before my V/LA and this is the best place for it.

[Something_Smart]

Lies.

[Something_Smart]

Sorry for neglecting this game.

My towncase is pretty straightforward: it requires a lot of assumptions to say that I'm scum here. You'd have to assume that I hard defended the guy I thought was SK and then doubled back and pushed him when I found out he was not SK and therefore not a threat to me. You'd have to assume that lilith and I both remained noncommittal about each other as we were getting wagoned, to the point where I, the PR, was about to be hammered and still didn't even bus her or make any effort to shift the wagon to her-- while our other partner is also passively bussing me for essentially no reason. You'd also have to assume that I chose to claim VT at the point where it seemed pretty likely I would die unless I claimed a PR. If I'm scum, what was our endgame plan on D2? If I got lynched, then the PR would be down, and it's not like lilith would look better-- she'd look worse for defending me, and we'd be counting on Firebringer who was pretty widely scumread to endgame.

Meanwhile for PP to be scum, you have to assume... that he was good at acting genuine. PP's voting history is pretty much exactly what I was expecting in the case lilith was scum, and I said as much-- she was probably being bussed, but weakly, in the hopes that my wagon would go through despite the bussing.

[Something_Smart]

Oops, forgot the right terminology there, mb.

VOTE: PP

[Something_Smart]

Eh? This was right after your vote.

VOTE COUNT 2.4

lilith2013 [4]:

Menalque [2433], Blake Belladonna [2720], MariaR [2893], PenguinPower [2924]

-- [L-2]

Something_Smart [4]:

skitter30 [2389], Firebringer [2424], Bingle [2740], Almost50 [2887]

-- [L-2]

Not Voting [3]:

Something_Smart, lilith2013, Datisi [2806]

With

11

alive, it takes

6

to hammer.
Day 2 ends in

(expired on 2020-06-30 01:30:00)

Game Notes:

skitter30 regular v/la Fridays and Saturdays

[Something_Smart]

Sure, but I'm looking at the circumstances when you voted. I'm not saying that you were hoping I was gonna be hammered the entire time you were on lilith; just when she and I were the big wagons. After that it could have just been keeping it up to try to get towncred or look consistent. (And if you backed off of lilith and she died anyway that would look terrible, of course.)

[Something_Smart]

GG town.

Blake being JK was a real stroke of bad luck. Town had pretty stacked PR's this game; if it had been vengeful instead of vig or doc instead of JK we would have had a much better shot.