Open 88 - Polygamist Mafia (Game Over) before 650

[Goatrevolt]

Vote Caboose

for being a default halo character name.

[Goatrevolt]

Vote: Zoolander

With everyone else getting a vote, I didn't want anyone to feel left out.

I don't have a vote. We should lynch you for your lies!

[Goatrevolt]

There's some crazy interspecies love-fest going on between myself and Llama.

Next is OpposedForce.

[Goatrevolt]

Here's another thought: Random vote? Minus my pair, or yours as you may see it, there are 10 people. You have a 2/5 chance of hitting. After one lynch, that goes to a 3/5 chance. Odds are, we hit and win, or get caught in a stalemate doing so.

Thoughts?

Day 1, you have a 1/3 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Day 2, you have a 2/5 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Maybe my math is wrong (my statistics tends to just be me doing what I think sounds right, heh) but I believe that randomly lynching gives us a 60% chance of winning the game.

1/3 + (2/3 * 2/5) = 3/5 = 60%

1/3 chance we win day 1 and then we add to that the 2/3 chance we hit wrong day 1 times the 2/5 chance we hit correctly day 2, and that gives us a total of 1/3 + 4/15 = 9/15 = 60%.

Pros:
-60% base chance means town wins slightly more often than scum
-Randomly lynching avoids scum manipulation

Cons:
-By playing the game out normally, we can get clues on who the scum are and perhaps increase our chance of winning through solid reasoning.
-Against the spirit of the game. If I wanted to roll a dice, I'd just do it. I'm here to play mafia.

Overall, I'm leaning against doing this because I'd rather just play the game out normally and I think strong town reasoning can increase our chances of winning this game, but I do find it interesting that randomly lynching players could actually be quite pro-town.

[Goatrevolt]

I don't think analysis of random voting is useless. Conclusive towards finding scum? Definitely not at this stage, but I think it's valuable and could be a good way to kick off discussion so we can actually start some scumhunting.

[Goatrevolt]

Day 1, you have a 1/3 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Day 2, you have a 2/5 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

It's actually 2/5 day 1, since you can take out your own group, since you know yourself and partner.

The chance is actually better than you say.

A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.

You can't take yourself out, unless the random voting is actually more like "let's randomly lynch someone that isn't me," which sounds like quite a good plan for scum.

Random lynching is poor. Always.

What about when it gives you a 60% chance to win?

[Goatrevolt]

Strong FOS both people suggesting we don't scum hunt

BTW.

I assume this is directed at me. Where did I suggest we shouldn't scum hunt?

[Goatrevolt]

The random lynching plan isn't that great. In addition to the stuff I put on my cons list against it, there's also the idea that if we randomly lynch day 1 we may attempt to non-randomly lynch day 2, which could cause mayhem, and easily lower our chances of winning significantly. There are simply more reasons and more benefits to scum hunting and trying to actually find and eliminate scum that way.

I was pushing armlx a bit to get a reaction of out of him, but I think his response was fairly natural.

As for Jebus, he had no shame in suggesting the idea and pushing it, which definitely is sticking his neck out there more than scum are wont to do. On the flip side, though, is his scummy suggestion that we do the random lynch but

leave him and his lover out of it

which is extremely pro-scum if he is indeed scum. So I'm a bit torn here as I'm getting conflicting reads.

[Goatrevolt]

What didn't you like, my actual analysis, or the idea of random voting?

[Goatrevolt]

What didn't you like, my actual analysis, or the idea of random voting?

I don't know if it is accurate. I don't like the idea of it at all. The fact that you are checking it is weird. I mean really you think random voting will work because why exactly?

Strictly mathematically there's a 60% chance of the town winning by voting entirely randomly. Originally my reasons for checking the math was because I felt there was no chance that randomly voting could be a good thing and wanted to point it out to Jebus. Strictly speaking numbers though, it's actually not horrible. The issue lies in the fact that we have a chance to improve that number through good scumhunting, and it takes away all fun and point of playing to just rely on random voting.

What exactly do you find scummy about my actions? The fact that I even bothered to check the math in the first place?

[Goatrevolt]

Basically yes why would you check something based on randomness? Is that the true spirit of this game? Do you really believe those votes wouldn't be manipulated in some way?

I mentioned why I originally checked the math in my last post. How would people be able to manipulate a randomly chosen lynch?

[Goatrevolt]

Nah, when we're talking about random lynches, we mean entirely randomly. As in like a dice roll, entirely free of any manipulation.

[Goatrevolt]

Nah, when we're talking about random lynches, we mean entirely randomly. As in like a dice roll, entirely free of any manipulation.

How do you know what Jebus means?

Actually, I really don't. I pretty much just assumed that's what he meant by random lynch because that was my interpretation. Judging by your reaction though, maybe I assumed too much and people were thinking of it differently than I was. Considering he wasn't interested in throwing his own name in the ballot, it's definitely possible I was misinterpreting him.

[Goatrevolt]

A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.

This quote makes me think he wanted a day 1 lynch without any furthur attempts to scumhunt. You would have to guess if kick-starting meant he was more open to scumhunting in day 2 or not. Like I previously said his idea was bad and scummy, standing up for himself and not slinking into the shadows gave me a little doubt, but now he's been replaced so how does that factor into adel now?

Yeah, upon further review, I think I was wrong in my interpretation of what Jebus was talking about. I think he wanted to randomly decide a lynch for the purpose of kickstarting discussion, rather than try to break this specific game type through randomized lynches, which is what I assumed. The questions then become, what exactly was a random

lynch

going to do in terms of kickstarting discussion. I'm really disappointed he replaced out, because I want to interrogate him on this.

His replacement at least was stated to be due to computer issues, and I see no reason not to just simply believe him on that. Thus I'm not going to really take it as an alignment tell. I've often seen scum replace out when pressured because they basically "give up" but Jebus wasn't really under a lot of pressure, and his computer issue excuse makes sense.

[Goatrevolt]

I asked because of the fight between Llama and OF. OF at one pointed stated he didn't know the game was nightless. I think that would have been something known by scum members during the pregame talks. I could be wrong.

I would consider that a slight town tell even though I'd honestly expect everyone to know that, town or scum. The reason I would consider it a slight town tell is that town are focused on looking for scum, while scum are trying to find 2 mislynches. A townie forgetting the setup doesn't hurt them from finding scum, whereas scum probably are more mindful of the setup and exactly what they need to accomplish.

It's definitely nothing truly conclusive, but I think it's a good point.

[Goatrevolt]

my lover's single post. defintely a sign of a genius scum plot to convince the town to random-lynch itself into extinction.

So who is responable for pushing a case that the two rawest newbies in the game were trying to get the town to adopt a fatal strategy?

I never saif it was a large plot.

The first quote is you trying to shoot down suspicion on yourself and your lover by showing the absurdity of two newbie scum concocting a plan to win by having the town random lynch. In other words, your defense of their actions is the "There's no way they made that large plot" defense, which completely contradicts the 2nd post.

I think the issue, and what armlx was saying, is that you're strawmanning people's suspicion on you by taking 1 scenario (the pregame plot) and showing it to be absurd, but ignoring other possible scenarios (it wasn't a plot or a preplanned idea) in your defense.

[Goatrevolt]

I kind of suspect that thier understanding of the setup was so incompleat that they (both of them) thought that as lovers they needed to avoid being suspected of being lovers.

That doesn't add up to me.

I said earlier the chat made them sound like newbies, but Jebus looks anti-town trying to be pro-town and 3jf looks anti-town trying to be anti-town with what he's suggesting.

The chat shouldn't prove what they are, but if 3jf is replaced their ideas shouldn't count against the replacements, right?

I'm not sure exactly what you're suggesting, but if someone replaces out, their replacement does not get a fresh start or a clean slate.

[Goatrevolt]

I need to read through the last 4 pages or so. Sorry for falling behind.

[Goatrevolt]

I find it odd that Adel would post her comments made and what the 2 people said (which what they said is incredibly scummy) but the fact she left those scummy comments in there where she could have made the whole thing up seems like WIFOM.

I think Adel's expectation was that we would see their suggestions and brush them off as newbies and give them a free pass. I don't see why summarizing some of a night conversation really means anything one way or another.

Anyway, I still need to reread the last few pages. My current top suspect is Adel, and the majority of my suspicion is based on the way she defended herself by strawmanning the nature of the attacks against her, and thus trying to make those attacks appear weaker than they are. I'll just stick with a

FoS Adel

for now until I look at a vote count.

[Goatrevolt]

I think Adel makes a good point about nobody standing up to defend. I need to look through and see if this is actually the case, but if so, that's a fairly solid observation and would certainly suggest this being a mislynch.

[Goatrevolt]

Prod received. Reading tonight.

[Goatrevolt]

Got caught up in other things and didn't finish the read through. This game is now my top priority though.

I apologize to anyone who is in games with me now because of my level of posting. My amount of time to dedicate to mafia shrunk considerably recently, but unfortunately my number of current games did not.

[Goatrevolt]

Alright, I've finished my read through. Here are some cursory thoughts on each lover pair basically going off of what I gathered from a single read. I'd like to go into more depth but I realize that the deadline is actually really close, so I'll just get this out there for now.

armlx - kloud1516
Goatrevolt - Empking
Adel - Mana_ku
Citizen Karne - StrangerCoug
Jahudo - OpposedForce (Jenethron)
Farside22 - Caboose

Jahudo - OpposedForce

Jahudo has struck me as very pro-town thus far. He seems to be a voice of reason and willing to analyze things objectively. OpposedForce is someone I'm relatively 50/50 on, but I thought he defended himself well from Llama's early attacks, and I mentioned that him not realizing the game was nightless was a slight town tell and I stick by that. For that I lean town on him.

Verdict - Town

armlx - kloud1516

armlx has been aggressively pushing at Jebus/Adel the entirety of the game. I haven't found his aggression in this manner terribly scummy except that he seems to weakly address or brush aside arguments about who would be scum with Adel/Mana_Ku. Since those arguments are a strong point, and a huge reason to suggest that Adel is town, I find it scummy that he is brushing them aside or not really taking them into much account. Kloud I feel has acted fairly pro-town thus far, and seems willingly to objectively/logically consider arguments which gives me a mixed review of this team.

Verdict - Somewhat scummy

Adel - Mana_ku

I found Adel's manner of defense immediately after replacing to be poor, basically by strawmanning many of the arguments against her and brushing aside others as people merely attacking new players, without acknowledging that being new doesn't prohibit someone from being scum. However, the argument that no single group makes sense as scum with Adel/Mana_Ku is very strong and makes it seem pretty clear that Adel/Mana are town.

Verdict - Town

Farside22 - Caboose

Both of these players have done much of what I've done this game, and that is not post a whole lot and promise rereads that simply haven't happened. It would be intensely hypocritical for me to attack them for that, and I don't see it as a selling point either way. Farside's play earlier in the game struck me as townie. She asked some good questions (the nightless one, for example) that spoke of a townie mindset. Caboose has been relatively nonexistant and I simply don't have a read on him.

Verdict - Neutral

Citizen Karne - StrangerCoug

Citizen Karne has been an even stronger proponent of the Adel lynch but has been less vocal about it than armlx. I think Jahudo's assessment that he's been very sure of himself is true, but I hardly consider that to be a strong alignment tell. I see him pushing the lynch, but don't recall his precise reasons for being on the wagon, which strikes me as pretty scummy. StrangerCoug hasn't really impacted me one way or another.

verdict - Fairly Scummy

I'll address some things I found addressed to me or about me:

5. Your claimed lover [refering to myself] is serving as an echo chamber for reciting the points made against me and Jebus, but he has not voted for me. Pushing a wagon without committing to it is scummy.

Wrong. I didn't commit to it because I wanted to see a vote count. Very soon afterwards, you mentioned the "who is scum with me if I'm scum" point, which caused me to no longer want to vote you. The "Echo chamber" point is also completely baseless and false, as I provided completely original reasons for finding you suspicious. If anything, others agreed with my reasoning.

Also, why is GoatRevolt keeping his joke vote on me nearing the end of D1?

I thought I had unvoted that.

Unvote

That is interesting. Judging by his recent posts, 3 of the last 5 have been to say his catching up to the game. He FoS Adel as his top suspect back in post 238 but claimed not to know the vote count.

What's your implication? My not knowing the vote count is consistent with me keeping my random vote on, because if I had seen it, I would have realized I was still voting.

Goat meanwhile has been oddly distant from scum hunting, at least that's how it feels recognizing that he's only placed one FoS so far. He's spent part of the day doing math about the random lynch idea, and one post saying Adel is strawmanning the pre-game chat as absurd. It does feel strange how little he's trail blazed on his own to make a point or question somebody.

I've been oddly distant from basically anything this game. I popped in to say I found Adel most suspicious, and then retracted that after Adel mentioned the "what other group is scum with me point." Other than that, I haven't contributed much since early in the day. Do you consider my inactivity/lurking as scummy? If so, how do you feel about Farside/Caboose, who have likewise been fairly absent from the game?


Let me know if there is anything else I missed you want me to address.

I'm also going to

Vote Citizen Karne
FoS Armlx

Both of those groups contain one scummier player (armlx, CK) and one player who hasn't really struck me as scummy (kloud, SC). At the moment I simply find Citizen Karne's strong wagon push but lack of clear reasons why to be scummier. I realize that I'm pushing a target near deadline who isn't very suspected at all, but I think there is enough time (especially with 4 votes being the current lead) to change things around. I also think it's possible that these two groups are scum with each other, but since they could just as easily be scum with Caboose/farside or less-likely Jahudo/Jenethron I'd rather stick to lynching the scummiest group.

[Goatrevolt]

I'm going to vote: Adel though I am happy voting 3fj, kloud, or armlx.

This quote makes me think Karne is trying to safe-distance, but from whom? Adel-scum or Armix-scum?

Either way, if you're implying that CK is scum, it really doesn't matter who he's trying to distance from if we lynch him.

1. Does anyone who thinks Adel is scum agree/disagree with my ideas (post 440) on who would be the other scum pair?

2. Is anyone currently voting for armix, thinking about voting for armix, or voting for Adel because they don't want to see armix lynched, open to/would be more confident switching to a non-Adel and non-armix lynch? Why or why not?

3. People on the Karne or Empking wagons, do you have ideas for the other scum pair?

4. If you had a backup vote, who would it be on?

1. N/A

2. N/A, but I'm in favor of a Citizen Karne lynch.

3. Armlx/Kloud or Caboose/Farside would be my best guesses for a scum pair to Ciitzen/Coug.

4. Armlx, though I feel much stronger about my vote on Citizen.

What are the exact reasons for suspicion on Empking? I'd like to try to address the suspicion on my lover if possible. Is it the L-1 vote? The argument between Empking/Mana_Ku was tough to follow, and the end result was that Mana_ku misinterpreted a quote? If correct, is there more to that I'm missing?

[Goatrevolt]

Mana_Ku: Do you think I am busing Citizen Karne then?

[Goatrevolt]

Adel: Can you rank lover pairs from scummiest -> least scummy?

[Goatrevolt]

Adel: Can you rank lover pairs from scummiest -> least scummy?

I don't think I want to post that information right now. Since we are going into night soon if we don't win the game out-right, I don't want to give the scum information that will help them figure out during their night-talk who the best person to try to mislynch during day 2 is.

Ah, gotcha, that makes sense. The reason I asked was basically because this quote right here:

I am more suspicious of E.King/Goat and Farside/Caboose than I am of Karne/StrangerCoug right now.

led me to believe that you found Karne/Coug town, considering that is 4 players you find more suspicious, and I also assumed based on your vote on Armlx that you found his pair suspicious as well. By process of elimination, it seems logical to assume you found them town, which obviously doesn't jive with your current vote. Can you explain that?

[Goatrevolt]

Why do people in game after game accuse me of going after "easy" targets? Is it the newest crap to accuse someone of that doesn't require any supporting evidence? I've played with farside a a few (3?) games before, she is not an easy target.

How truly ironic.

At this point I'm waiting for a post out of farside, and I'd like one out of caboose as well outlining who he thinks is scum.

Also, Adel, can you provide that list I asked for yesterday? It's obviously less meaningful in the context of my original reasons for asking, but I'm still interested in seeing it.

[Goatrevolt]

FYI: I'm not lurking for some reason some games are just hard for me to get thru. My other problem is I'm trying to rid myself of my thoughts on Llama as it is meta more then anything else. I don't always agree with Meta, so people put it on themselves and some times it works. I don't want to stand on this meta feel and I just can't shake it.
To explain a bit. I learned Llama is not one who enjoys being mafia. When he asked to be replaced when I probbed that bothered me a lot as he too is a big time poster. Him lurking and asking to be replaced has yet to really left me feeling good.

Llama posted frequently as scum in open 70. You're correct that Llama prefers to play town over scum, but I don't think you can really say that him asking to be replaced was a direct result of that. I know Llama is a college student, and I wouldn't be surprised if his replacement/lowered activity was a result of going back to school. I know that was the case for myself.

[Goatrevolt]

check out http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/search.p ... &start=325
he has made 335 posts on mafiascum.net since his last post in this game.
he posted an incredible amount of posts (more than 50) between his last post in this game and when Empking replaced him.

That link isn't working for me.

I'm going to take your word for it and assume you're correct about him posting frequently in other games, though. I still don't see how that can be used to imply he's scum. Some games are simply more interesting and easier to post in than others regardless of alignment. Open 70 shows that metagaming Llama as more lurky and posting less frequently as scum is flawed.

[Goatrevolt]

armlx: I assume that's a vote for Empking? Also, why do you feel Llama's lurking in this game is meaningful? You were in Open 70 where he was one of the most active players as scum.

You mention that you don't see a farside vote going anywhere productive. Can you explain that? Furthermore, what do you see as productive about a vote on Llama (who isn't even in this game...I'll assume Empking)?

[Goatrevolt]

EBWODP.

Vote Goat

Thats what I meant.

Ah, ok. So what's your reasoning?

[Goatrevolt]

You haven't done much all game except vote CK.

Why is that enough to vote for me yet nothing productive would come from pursuing farside?

Also, couldn't it be argued that you haven't done much all game except push for Adel?

In other words, I'd like you to explain why exactly this behavior makes you think I'm likely to be scum. Merely pointing out my actions this game and voting me for them is meaningless unless you also provide any kind of explanation why you think that makes me scum.

[Goatrevolt]

I feel a wagon on farside is going to net 0 info. At best.

I pushed adel. You did less then that.

I started the wagon on CK, one that you were on.

You've completely failed to adequately address my points.

1. Why is a farside wagon going to net 0 info whereas my wagon is going to net info?
2. What about my play do you actually find scummy? As in, what do you think I've done that actually indicates that I'm scum? Currently, you're voting me based off of something that you have not shown to be indicative of scum and furthermore is something that plenty of players in this game are guilty of, yet you have brushed them aside. What makes my actions more grievous and worthy of a vote whereas a vote on them would net no info?

[Goatrevolt]

Have you ever tried to info wagon Farside?

Nope, can't say that I have. Care to elaborate?

And its the absence of real stuff until really late, and your only vote being on a townie, that I don't like.

Perhaps if you hadn't voted CK this would be valid reasoning, but this is pretty much just pot calling kettle black.

I'd also like an explanation as to why my absence is telling but it's a non point for others. I'm sensing a lack of consistency here.

Furthermore, your only vote was on Adel the entire day, up until the point where you swapped to voting

the same target as me

.

Vote armlx

I think your attack on me is weak. You're inconsistent in that you're voting me for something but ignoring that mentality in others, and haven't given any reason why it's scummy for me but not scummy for them. It shows a complete lack of consistency in what you consider scummy. Furthermore, attacking me for voting CK who ended up being a townie is hypocritical when you voted for him as well. I'm an easy vote to make, because you can just call attention to the fact that I was absent much of the day and voila you have your reason for voting for me. Armlx has completely failed to provide any reasoning whatsoever why he feels this indicates that I'm scum and has shown that he's capable of ignoring that same facet of play in others, meaning that he doesn't consider this a universal scum tell.

[Goatrevolt]

Calling it now, Adel/Mana/Goat/Emp scum group.

Because it makes sense for Empking to put his scumbuddy at L-1...

My prediction would be armlx/kloud/farside/caboose. Armlx has no problem attacking me for something but ignoring/brushing aside as irrelevant the exact same aspect of farside's play with no underlying basis.

[Goatrevolt]

Empking/Goat and Armlx/Kloud are the 2 groups that make the absolute least sense as partners to Adel/Mana. Armlx/Kloud is easy to completely write off as partners because of nothing more than Kloud's vote on Adel at the end of yesterday. Right behind that is myself and Empking though, because there is simply no way a player would put their scum partner at L-1, especially with plenty of players expressing suspicion of Adel and plenty of inactive players who could come back and hammer at any point.

This is quite a stretch.

Still think Goat is scum trying not to connect himself to anyone.

This is a new point. I'm glad your reasoning for finding me scum changes each time. So what basis do you have to make this assertion? Also if this is the manner in which we can determine scum, allow me to suggest that armlx is scum who was trying not to connect himself to anyone based on his single minded pursuit of Adel yesterday. It works both ways.

[Goatrevolt]

Jahudo, I'd like to see you take a stance.

[Goatrevolt]

At L-1 there was Adel, Mana, Goat, Farside, Coug and me who could have hammered during that day-and-a-half window. Rule out Coug (town), Adel, and Mana. The three remaining have been at least mildly suspicious of Adel and cautious of his bandwagon given the idea that “1 of every group is on”.

You can't rule out Coug because he's town. Town doesn't mean he wouldn't have hammered, unless you think scum are the ones who exclusively place hammer votes.

Also, if the implication is that Empking/myself are scum buddies with Adel/Mana, then you can rule me out, because I wouldn't hammer my scum buddy Adel. Still, I find it a huge stretch and a bit of a ridiculous assertion to assume that Empking would put a scum buddy at L-1 and allow any number of currently lurking players to hammer. Armlx is stretching for a scum pairing to make sense with his suspicions.

If Armlx/Kloud/Caboose/Farside are the scum team, which would be my best guess, then Armlx can't support the current leading wagon of Caboose/Farside. Instead, he pressures me for an action, willfully ignores that same action when farside makes it, and makes a stretch to suggest how I could be scum with Adel/Mana. Scum have a lowered pool of options as to who they can suspect, since busing is suicide, and I think this is showing in Armlx's actions.

[Goatrevolt]

I don't foresee this being a huge help in catching scum, but I don't see any actual downsides, so it's definitely worth a shot. Part of me feels that this goes against the spirit of the game, but I can save that discussion until post-game.

How do we want to handle the issue of replacements who were not actually around for the pre-game discussion? I can see pros and cons to having the replacements post the chats as well as players who have been here all game. Thoughts?

[Goatrevolt]

How this helps:
By having the person state what they said during the quick topics time can verify a few things and may catch scum slipping up to make something up.
Replacements can't answer why what was said, but them paraphrasing for the person they replaced can help too.
Manu sorry didn't realize you were Adel's lover. I am now fully informed.

Aye. It can only help us.

Empking can go ahead and paraphrase my pre-chat with Llama. After that, I want armlx to go next.

[Goatrevolt]

Well, it's not necessarily a rule break, as nobody knows how many posts I have after Llama's last post in that thread.

At least, I'm going to hope this isn't a modkill.

Also, if this doesn't end the game, I vote we stop. I don't want the game to be decided by something like a modkill.

[Goatrevolt]

I'll read through all the bickering later, but the general consensus is that I need to claim my portion of that chat?

Basically it went something like this grossly paraphrased:

Llama: Yo Goat, what's up, this should be a good team.
Goat: Definitely. We were good last time as town together.
Llama: Never played this game, not sure what to talk about.
Goat: Nor have I. I'm guessing the key is to look at lover pairs not individuals.
Llama: Agreed. I don't recognize many of the players.
Goat: I've played with a decent number of them.
Llama: [Random comments about a different game we played in.]

I'd prefer armlx goes next.

[Goatrevolt]

God Goat can you get a muzzle for your lover.

I'm the one on the leash here, sorry.

I don't really see the issue here, to be honest. Empking claimed, picked farside, who claimed, who picked me, I claimed, and now I'll pick armlx to go next. What's the problem?

[Goatrevolt]

Ah, I see. The issue was that farside wanted me to claim, then armlx.

How about this: Armlx claims next, then kloud claims to get the full lover team, and one of those 2 can pick the next claim?

[Goatrevolt]

The lack of conversation from armlx/kloud and llama/goat I find highly questionable knowing both people as I do. The only reason I didn't talk as much is my lover was replaced right before the game started and we had only 24 hours to talk so I made it quick and to the point.

I'm pretty sure Llama and I had the longest conversation of anyone, so I don't really see your point here. I honestly don't really even see armlx's chat as out of character either. When have you known armlx to be long winded?

Farside, answer truthfully here. Would it have even mattered what was said between Llama and I? I'm guessing the answer is no.

[Goatrevolt]

I actually want an explanination from Goat and Empking about the football comment.

Sure. Llama mentioned football, but it fell in the "not relevant to this game" discussion bit. I was more interested in the "discussion of previous games we were in" part.

Catching up...

[Goatrevolt]

I think farside's attack on myself/Empking and armlx/kloud based on pregame chats is weak. It strikes me as her trying to somehow extract/fabricate scumminess from the pregame chats to boost her predetermined notions of who is scum.

Personally, I would be more suspicious of the "perfect" pre-game chat than one that doiesn't contain all the discussion that good little pre-game townies should have. You can't expect townies pregame to discuss every possibly thing, and I would honestly suspect a fake if anyone did.

[Goatrevolt]

Why would empking only mention football and you mention the other game?
Don't say a word just yet.
Empking what was the other game that llama and goat where talking about?

I'm not sure exactly. It was probably more interesting to him than discussion of a game he wasn't a part of.

[Goatrevolt]

I think farside's attack on myself/Empking and armlx/kloud based on pregame chats is weak. It strikes me as her trying to somehow extract/fabricate scumminess from the pregame chats to boost her predetermined notions of who is scum.

Personally, I would be more suspicious of the "perfect" pre-game chat than one that doiesn't contain all the discussion that good little pre-game townies should have. You can't expect townies pregame to discuss every possibly thing, and I would honestly suspect a fake if anyone did.

Scum have more to hid with there talks then a town person does.

Very true, but scum also have more information than townies and more to discuss. Townies don't have to hide anything, but they also have less information to discuss pre-game. You are holding Llama to a really high standard (and me by association), expecting us to discuss a laundry list of points pre-game, when in reality I know I just wanted to get in the game and see how things went. I could possibly see a higher level of expectation from someone like Adel who is well-versed in the setup, but neither Llama nor I have played this before.

[Goatrevolt]

Adel was not around when pre game talks were taking place.

Yep, I know. That was hypothetical.

[Goatrevolt]

There was no way in hell I was going to vote farside unless I was the one hammering her, because I wanted to play up the idea that me/emp and farside/caboose were the scum team, and for me to do so would have probably made it obvious that the scum team was me/emp armlx/kloud.

Sorry for going absent there those last two days. I was waiting for kloud to vote so I could hammer, but I was really busy and not able to access the game. I really was hoping that wouldn't cost us the win.

At any rate, I wish I could have had a more controlling role in this game, but being absent almost all of day 1 hurts a lot. I'm a bit surprised we won, to be honest. Our only real hope was to get a lynch on farside/caboose team, but I didn't think it would happen. Armlx, nice job with the distancing, and your swap to voting farside instead of me was really smooth. /applaud.

----

Set up discussion. I legitimately think this setup is skewed in favor of the town. Truly randomized lynching gives the town a 60% chance of winning, and any kind of good logical scum hunting and player relationship analysis should up that figure. I think armlx's 70% is a fairly accurate figure.

[Goatrevolt]

See, I thought the that she wasn't calling out goat as the potential lurker as well was an indication that farside/goat were the two pairs.

Honestly, from an objective standpoint, this pairing makes a lot of sense for townies to think is correct. Starting from the end of day 1, I made sure to try to hold back from throwing suspicion on farside to keep this option on the table. Farside flip-flopping from thinking me scum to thinking me town midway through day 2 really helped the impression.

I thought you guys had it Day One. Armlx was the deadline lynch without about 24 hours left, and I was completely surprised to see CK speed wagonned like that. Although his play was a bit tunneled, I was very impressed with SC, and I didn't think anyone would see him as scum.

Same. I didn't think it would happen. I would have had to vote Adel at deadline to keep from losing, which would have meant an auto loss the next day, because it would have obviously revealed armlx/kloud and me/emp as the scum pair.

Also, I didn't like the paraphrasing of QT's at all. I feel it's unfair on scum to force them to try and make that up. You can't put an example chat in the first post liek you can win PM's. Although I can't really think of a good rule against it, I think there should be something.

Agreed wholeheartedly. We almost lost because my story didn't quite match with Empking's. I completely missed the football comment when I was scouring the thread for what not to say while faking that. I'm glad it kind of fell through the cracks. I thought that was a game loss right there.

Also, for the record, I've played 4 games with LlamaFluff on various sites (2 on this site), so the "which game where they talking about" thing wasn't exactly fair. .

I dont' blame you. I played terrible. I just could not get into this game and I couldn't get over that naging feeling I had on Llama. Well next time I won't be so single minded even if I was right.

I disagree. I don't think you played a poor game at all. Your questioning early on day 1 was really pro-town, but got overlooked, and you were completely accurate in who you thought was scum for almost the entirety of the game. I wouldn't be hard on yourself for the loss at all.

[Goatrevolt]

I think mass claiming early is a bad idea for town in this setup and here's why. If you mass claim early, the scum immediately split into groups of two, and consciously begin to act as a group of two, rather than a group of 4. That can only serve to make it more difficult for town to determine who is scum, if the scum are already in the mindset of acting like town lovers.

On the other hand, say you wait to mass claim until day 2. Then you can look back through the thread, and see if things don't quite make sense based on the claim. Perhaps scum will vote or toss suspicion on their partner accidentally in an attempt to distance. Perhaps 2 members of opposing claimed lovers will tie themselves together in such a way that would only make sense if they were town lovers, etc. I think a later mass claim results in a lot more information and benefit for the town and will make scum finding a lot easier.

Main point: Town lovers are legitimately town lovers, and thus their actions towards each other will make complete sense when looking back through the thread. Town lovers aren't going to vote for or push for their own lover. Scum lovers are not legitimately 2 man groups, and thus may have actions that do not make sense from that perspective. Claiming later on allows you to catch this. Claiming early gives the scum the advantage in having to play like this openly from the beginning. An early mass claim coaches the scum to play correctly.