Open 88 - Polygamist Mafia (Game Over) before 650

[Jahudo]

Vote: Jebus

Because you're in my alphabetical proximity

[Jahudo]

Oh, and

unvote

vote:xtoxm

That's dumb.

unvote

Vote: Zoolander

There's starving children in irakistan that don't even get a random vote and here you are wasting yours.

[Jahudo]

I think it's an advantage to claim in this situation. There's no night and lover's die together so an accused person's lover can strengthen or weaken investigations. Also breaks the scum up into two groups.

Shall we wait for a consensus?

[Jahudo]

Actually he got claimed by Zoolander. Everyone's been paried it looks like:

Zoolander / The Pope’s Tiara
Jebus / 3fj
Armix / kloud1516
Goatrevolt / Llamafluff
OpposedForce / Jahudo
Caboose / Farside22

Interesting that both Jebus and Zoolander chose to reveal their partners early while the rest stuck with the popcorn and pass on to the next person. So since two of these sets were scum that had to decide how they wanted to partner up, was there anything to learn from how the reveals happened? I'm not sure there is, actually.

[Jahudo]

Asking why someone chose that person is the real issue at hand here, especially with the ability for each person to pick either Lover A1, A2, B1, B2, etc.

Possibly we can look back and see if the suspicious person was trying to interact or avoid interaction with their other scum group through random voting or the claim order. It’s WIFOM now to think that the scum would/wouldn’t logically random vote the other scum pair or precede/follow them in the claim order, though.

Group 2 does look set apart from the rest but you can also argue that 1 and 6 distanced if you don't count 6 asking 1 to claim after the fact. 3,4, and 5 And if you want to look only at voting, then 3 and 4 kept apart while 4 and 5 kept apart.

1 = Zoolander / The Pope’s Tiara
2 = Jebus / 3fj
3 = Armix / kloud1516
4 = Goatrevolt / Llamafluff
5 = OpposedForce / Jahudo
6 = Caboose / Farside22

--------------
Random voting tally

1A votes 3A and 5B. 1B votes 2B
Group one interacts with 2,3, and 5. Meanwhile groups 3,4, and 5 interact with them and 1 asked them to claim (didn’t see the initial claim?). 6 does not interact depending on how you read it.

2A votes 3B and 2B votes 3B
Group two interacts with only 3. Meanwhile groups 1 and 4 interact with them. 2,5, and 6 do not interact.

3A votes 5A and 1B. 3B votes 1A
Group three interacts with 1,5 and asked 4 to claim. Meanwhile groups 1,2, and 6 interact with them. All interact.

4A votes 1A and 4B votes 2A
Group four interacts with 1,2 and asked 5 to claim. Meanwhile group 6 interacts with them and 3 asked them to claim. All interact.

5A votes 6A. 5B votes 1A and 2A
Group five interacts with 1,2, and 6 and asked 6 to claim. Meanwhile 1 and 3 interact with them and 4 asked them to claim. All interact.

6A votes 4A and 6B votes 3A
Group six interacts with 3,4 and asks 1 to claim (didn’t see the initial claim?). Meanwhile 5 interacts with them and asked them to claim. 2 does not interact (and 1 depending on how you read it).

-------------
Mass lover claim order

1A claims
2A claims
3A claims and asks 4A to claim
4A claims and asks 5A to claim
5A claims and asks 6A to claim
6A claims and asks 1B to claim (didn’t see the initial claim?)
-------------
No judgment yet, but maybe a reference point for later.

[Jahudo]

In my random-vote and claiming-order post I had missed that Zoolander was the one to ask Armix to claim. So 1A claims and asks 3A to claim.

It’s still been early but Pope and 3fj have been quiet.

Jebus has had a rough start. First misses the town benefits of random voting and the popcorn claiming, then suggests random lynching as pro-town but I can’t see how anyone wanting to play mafia would suggest this because it eliminates the “playing mafia” part of the game.

[Jahudo]

I think Jebus was the main one to suggest random voting now as opposed to scum hunting. Interesting he/she proposes it, defends it twice, defends a third time but gives in that "random lynch anyone but me" as factoring into the odds, and now asks to be replaced.

Jebus is opposed on this issue by multiple people but stands by the theory and that seems pro-town not being afraid to stick out of the fray and being called wrong. Then again, the timing of this replacement request is right after losing an argument vs. the group and getting FoS'ed. To me the defense under pressure outweighs the replacement timing and the fact that the random lynch was a bad idea.

[Jahudo]

As for Jebus, he had no shame in suggesting the idea and pushing it, which definitely is sticking his neck out there more than scum are wont to do.

This is what I was getting at by saying Jebus was acting pro-town. His suggestion was anti-town to me but that doesn't mean one has to automatically change position if they're called out for a poor strategy. By putting his voice out there he was putting risk on himself and sticking his neck out as Goatrevolt says.

Also armix and others: Do you think a vote on Jebus is still a good direction now that it seems he's getting a replacement?

[Jahudo]

A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.

This quote makes me think he wanted a day 1 lynch without any furthur attempts to scumhunt. You would have to guess if kick-starting meant he was more open to scumhunting in day 2 or not. Like I previously said his idea was bad and scummy, standing up for himself and not slinking into the shadows gave me a little doubt, but now he's been replaced so how does that factor into adel now?

The random lynching plan isn't that great. In addition to the stuff I put on my cons list against it, there's also the idea that if we randomly lynch day 1 we may attempt to non-randomly lynch day 2, which could cause mayhem, and easily lower our chances of winning significantly. There are simply more reasons and more benefits to scum hunting and trying to actually find and eliminate scum that way.

I think Goat has made is clear that he wanted scumhunting before a lynch, regardless of how long and in-depth we go to make our choices. He also seems to be against the random lynch day 1 and scum-hunt day 2 but again I can only guess what Jebus was thinking.

@Opposed Force: was your argument directed more towards Goat or Jebus or about equal? I don't think he named names.

Also where are Zoolander and the Pope? Is this synchronized lurking? (couldn't resist the joke but I'm still curious)

[Jahudo]

Just a question for anyone and everyone. Do you think the scum know this game is nightless? I mean don't you think that would have been part of their talks before the day started?

Well if they didn't before then they'll know now
What is the advantage/disadvantage? Even without night we can reach lylo pretty quick, and without night kills to look at and try to find motives maybe we should look for a potential scum group defending or ignoring another group since one lynched scum means the other three die too.

I don't know how much opinion I can give to Llama and Opposed Force's back and forths. Maybe Llama is twisting that original post in question to get a different conclusion but I'm not sure. I gotta re-read.

I'm growing more concerned by those not posting, particularly the partner of Jebus who has had plenty reason to stay in the shadows. 3fj hasn't posted since his original random vote. Nothing game related since and definitely nothing when Jebus was being accused.

Vote: 3fj

[Jahudo]

vote kloud

Because if everyone was on the same team... thats one big orgy. Amirite?

my lover's single post. defintely a sign of a genius scum plot to convince the town to random-lynch itself into extinction.

So who is responable for pushing a case that the two rawest newbies in the game were trying to get the town to adopt a fatal strategy?

I don't know if anyone expressed that 3fj was scummy based on his random vote post. I voted for him because that was his only post so far and that maybe there was a chance to get him to come back before replacement, which does not seem to be the case. I guess maybe he flaked.

I'm interested to hear what Zoolander has been thinking since his filler post, although it looks like the Pope is also being replaced. I guess that's another raw newbie flaking?

[Jahudo]

I think there’s several ways Jebus could have planted that random vote idea (post 57) on purpose if he were scum, so his inexperience and questioning the setup are not automatic tells that he is a “mistaken” newbie. Here’s a few possibilities:

1. Jebus thought he could get people on board for the random vote. In this case the other scum group would need to support it.
2. Jebus thought people would not be on board for the random vote, but also not lynch them for that reason alone. The other group could denounce the idea immediately and be distanced from Jebus’ group.
3. ?...

-Opposed Force and Kloud fought the idea almost immediately (posts 58 and 62).

-Only the Zoolander / Pope group did not comment on the idea but they haven’t commented anything else.

-Out of the Goat / Llama group, Goat mostly was against it (70) but we have to speculate if his position could have been interchangeable. He was the 3rd group out of the 5 that aren’t Jebus’ to comment on the idea. Llama withheld his idea but posted in other areas (66, 68).

@Llama: Did you feel that enough people were making the point against random lynching clear enough for Jebus that you didn’t need to weigh in before he got replaced?

-Caboose / Farside group were both against it but not until much after the other groups weighed in (87 and 95). Caboose hadn’t posted on any other topic while Farside did post on other earlier (64).

It's all pretty much speculation but could be a good addition to some massive diagram later on. While I think Jebus could've been a mistaken townie, he also could've be hoping his inexperience is used for the benefit of doubt.

[Jahudo]

Hah, that's a funny chat thread.

3fj's tips to avoid suspicion sounds bad, but Jebus does act like the random lynch is a great plan for town to win. I don't know if paraphrased chats should factor in much or at all, but it does sound like two typical newbies to me.

[Jahudo]

I kind of suspect that thier understanding of the setup was so incompleat that they (both of them) thought that as lovers they needed to avoid being suspected of being lovers.

That doesn't add up to me.

I said earlier the chat made them sound like newbies, but Jebus looks anti-town trying to be pro-town and 3jf looks anti-town trying to be anti-town with what he's suggesting.

The chat shouldn't prove what they are, but if 3jf is replaced their ideas shouldn't count against the replacements, right?

[Jahudo]

I'm not sure exactly what you're suggesting, but if someone replaces out, their replacement does not get a fresh start or a clean slate.

No not completely. I just mean that Jebus' random vote idea and 3jf's inactivity are not strong enough tells to lynch their replacements. I can feel neutral on this group at this stage. Even if they feel like a good instinct vote, it's not well reasoned.

[Jahudo]

Why does the replacement matter?

Because they cannot defend why Jebus and probably 3fj left the game. Unless you were ready to lynch Jebus and 3fj before Abel replaced in, I feel that what Abel and a potential 3fj replacement say and do are more useful because they can defend themselves.

armix and goat: I feel like you're taking my original opinion on this matter and making it sound like I was stating a fact for all cases. Or was I not being clear?

[Jahudo]

Kloud: I agree with you in post 139 when you say this:

seeing as how she has been replaced we shall not be able to know if this was the case or not. I do not advise dwelling on Jebus' intentions, as it will only detract from conversation at hand. This is not to say that looking back at Jebus' provided content is a bad thing, as it may provide clues/indication as to her and her partner's alignment later on down the road.

Jebus’ defense didn’t prove anything for me and neither does this supposedly real chat. My whole opinion that 'what Jebus said shouldn’t not counting against the replacements' is like you say: we shouldn’t dwell on his intentions and he’s not here to defend them anymore. We'll learn more by using Adel actions against Adel than Jebus actions on Adel.

I then gave the opinion that I felt neutral and uneasy about a lynch right now. However, it does seem that Adel is trying to strawman people that want to believe a different theory than the mistaken newbie townie view of Jebus. But besides the vote on armix, Adel isn't saying anyone's scummy because of their view on Jebus.

A few more things:

-I didn’t defend the random lynch proposal or say it wasn’t worthy of criticism. I merely acknowledged that Jebus took the heat in stride and didn’t react irrationally by claiming or OMGUS or something. I think there's something to be said in that.

-The tone of the chat Adel provided is worded to assume they do not understand the setup (ie: they are newbies) and that they are town (Jebus: we only have to kill one scum to win). Besides that, Jebus actually believes in his random lynch so he’s TRYING to be pro-town. 3fj believes they should be deceptive to avoid suspicion which SOUNDS like a scum strategy. Even though I won’t say the chat is real, the chat makes them out to be newbie town.

As I think 3fj is getting replaced...

unvote

[Jahudo]

I believe noobtown would (in the overwhelming majority of cases) not propose a strategy in a game, as they are usually more unsure of themselves.

I understand the logic behind this as a noob strategy, but who ever uses logic? There’s a lot of reasons why they may want to be the first to suggest a strategy because it could appear pro-active and helpful to the town. That is, if it’s a good idea. Reckless, but I don’t believe it’s uncommon to find around here. Do the experienced players agree or disagree?
-------------------------------

Ah, so now lynching someone for wanting to lynch someone for an EXTREMELY anti-town plan is now scummy?

Is it now scummy because she wanted to lynch someone for wanting to lynch someone for anti-town plan?

Was Jebus pre-gaming to go after kloud a tell after seeing how he entered into the game with his random vote but claiming not to understand random votes at the same time? It was his excuse to vote kloud but was he maybe upset that it might not carry the weight he had hoped? That's my best guess.

[Jahudo]

And if you say again that this is a false message, then ask me for the link.

There's the burden of proof because these things can not be shown to others. While the chat explains why Jebus and 3fj acted the way they did, it could also be fake and we can’t be sure even if everybody summarized their own chat posts. I can't explain why, though, and in this case don't want to think that Adel would resort to forgery. This is her setup right?

You make an interesting point about tunnel-visioning this subject, however, because it’s given the opportunity for other people to shy away from conversation altogether and that’s not good.

Next would be Llama's discussion with OF. Many didn't even follow it, or they did but didn't say a thing.

One reason may be that Llama requested replacement and thus could no longer call people’s attention to it or answer people’s questions about it. But here’s how the other groups reacted:

1. Zoo and Pope never got that far into the game to comment but now Coug and Karne are here.

2. Caboose nor Farside commented or said they would.
I’ve been getting a weird vibe from Caboose lately. Posts 149, 165, and 197 look like attempts to stay active without informative contributions. And I can’t help but see post 87 as following the lead without adding a strong opinion. Looks like a couple of safe moves and avoiding this conversation could be another. But I would be more interested to hear what Caboose thinks about Mana’s group accusation of tunnel visioning and ignoring this other investigation.

3.

Sorry for taking longer than I promised to get a post up. I have taken notice of the back-and-forth between LF and OF, but I feel that I will need to go over the content provided in their posts with more scrutiny before I even attempt to comment on it.

Is this part of your catch-up?

I think there is something to be gained from the OF-Llama argument. Not sure what right now, but I'm going to read it a bit closer and see if I can figure it out.

Anything gained?

[Jahudo]

who do you see as being responsible for the attempted lynching of the newbies?

armix might have starting this wagon but it was on the basis of the original random lynch proposal by Jebus and his insistence on defending it. If anyone has been most eager about this bandwagon, I think Citizen Karne has been.

1)

I dislike how the Adel wagon disappeared so quickly once he (I remembered) replaced in. I especially do not like kloud's unvote at all. No reason given. He welcomes Adel into the game and unvotes.

By this point he gave no reason why he thought this wagon was a good idea. He tried to scum pair Adel with kloud by saying kloud had no reason to unvote and that looked scummy. Well kloud DID state a reason in his unvote post:

I feel that I am going to have to read over the last page and a half so that I make sure I haven't missed something.

The scum pairing felt like a stretch to believe when kloud didn't say anthing about clearing Adel in this post.

2)

Glad to see the wagon starting back up on Adel.

Again does not attempt to give his opinion on why he agrees with an Adel bandwagon, only bandwagons in general it appears.

3)

Most of what was posted in the daytalk seems much like noobscum, and I believe noobtown would (in the overwhelming majority of cases) not propose a strategy in a game, as they are usually more unsure of themselves.

I already said I thought this looked like reaching for reasons and only creating WIFOM. Proposing strategies might make a noob appear pro-active and helpful to the town despite his lessened knowledge of do's and dont's. I'm sure there are reasons, both scum and town, for someone to think random lynch is a good idea.

4)

And, do you also expect us to believe scum would be 100% truthful in their daytalk if it incriminated them?

Knowing this, how do you read Jebus' defense of his random lynch proposal? Do you see his explanation as an attempt to change from his originally stated intentions into something that could make him look more innocent than he knows his strategy is?

Karne: What are your thoughts on what Jebus did, because so far you have pressured the Adel wagon without commenting much on how it began?

[Jahudo]

Really now, Jahudo? Why did I need to restate the reasons for the wagon? It had been said quite clearly before.

If you agree with those reasons exactly then why not say it just for clarification? Because if you don't say why you believe something then, if there is a tomorrow, you could tell us you never believed particular reasons in the first place. That you liked the bandwagon because it pressured someone into revealing themselves, etc.

If Adel and I are scum then who are our partners? Of each lover pair there is at least one person voting for us. Explain that.

You've got a point. Scum can find reason to vote for other scum but at this point they would be looking for a way out. So EmpKing and maybe others would be unlikely, but not impossible, scum partners if Adel/Mana are scum.

[Jahudo]

First

I find Armix responsible but I do agree with him.

Then

He seems a tad tunnle visioned but he looks pro-town to me.

And now

I don't remember saying that tunnlevision is good.

Are you saying that armix is pro-town, and armix is tunnel visioned, but tunnel vision isn’t pro-town? Doesn’t that undermine your agreement for the case you think armix is responsible for?

Also, since armix says he's more about Mana and Adel's case, how do you agree with him by saying Jebus is scummy but Adel isn't?

[Jahudo]

If I were scum would a scumbuddy of mine really leave a vote on me while I was at lynch -1?

Which is similar to what Mana was getting at with 1 of each pair being on this wagon. Empking is an unlikely scumpair because that's a risky point to try and distance yourself from the other scum and still hope they aren't killed. But Empking as eager scum looks more reasonable if Adel/Mana are town.

I don't know what the diagram is saying, but armix and kloud look like the pair that is of one mind so far while other pairs have gone off at different pairs or one same and one different pair. I could see any as a pre-game plan, though.

As for others on this wagon: I see Caboose's original argument and recent lack of activity as lacking in confidence, so there could be an exit strategy day 2. And Citizen Karne may know why he voted but the way he did looked indirect, focusing more on the actual bandwagon and not the argument so he might not own it if Adel ends up town. And OpposedForce has been inactive lately so I won't guess what my partner thinks.

To be honest, I think armix and kloud look the most pro-town to me if Adel/Mana are town. They may be responsible for the wagon, but not all the momentum it gained.

[Jahudo]

If Adel is scum, then I think one of his scumbuddies is the same guy that my vote's on—armlx.

If that's the case then this whole thing was an attempt to distance from each other knowing that none can die while the other lives. So once they got to L-1 he did unvote but under this pretense of a diagram. I can't find any point where they showed hesitance in what they were doing though.

Also that brings back a question about Jebus and if this was part of a larger plan with his other scum pair. What would be the safe position for them to play if they knew Jebus would be wagoned? Could the ones who started the wagon have the confidence that they could redirect it before it goes to far?
-----------------------

I'm saying that you can be a tad tunnle visioned and still be pro-town.

Okay I think I wrongly connected aspects during his tunnel vision with things you found pro-town.

Adel: I don't see your point.

You said you agree with armix's case and that his case is now partly based on what Adel is saying, correct? You also stated that you found Jebus scummy but not so much with Adel, correct?

My question is: what is your opinion of armix's case that Adel is scummy, and does that fall in line or detract from the two of you agreeing on Jebus is scummy?

[Jahudo]

the "everyone thought he was scum so I hammered" defense would have been pretty convincing.

I agree and reinforce this concern with this quote.

Because those actions are easily the scummiest in the game by far, and 90% of the other actions in the game revolve around the results of this wagon?

Anyone could say that it was time to get the information from the results of this wagon. If it's a mis-lynch, the hammer has the support of this argument and can lose some suspicion.

[Jahudo]

@Jahudo: why aren't you voting for anyone?

It's because I'm having trouble being confidant that one person is scum while the partner looks more town, or at least less scum. Since I think you are town being mislynched it's too easy for me to see the voter's intentions but not that of the partner who isn't voting.

1) I don't like how Empking is jumping on this wagon because of Jebus and now he's indirectly approaching these new topics, but maybe that's because I have a hard time following his answers without any reference to the questions. Goat at least is finding reasons to FoS Adel but also acknowledges this could be a mislynch. But the FoS could have easily elevated to a vote and hammer.

2) I don't like how Caboose joined the wagon based the pre-game chat and the burden of proof on what Jebus was thinking. Others have agreed that he looked to be following the group, but how strong a tell is that when he hasn't said anything since his vote? Farside hasn't had many posts of substance lately and has been hard for me to read. She really didn't pursue the Adel/Jebus investigation, hardly mentioned it in fact. An unlikely hammer but a possible distance if it did go to mislynch.

3) I don't like how Karne didn't state his reasons for voting and looked eager to give more momentum to the wagon, but I want to be careful if it's something other than an obvious sign of skulduggery. Meanwhile StrangerCoug has looked pro-town recently. By voting armix after Adel it would appear that a quick hammer was not an option unless other things changed.

Too much speculating, but I am confidant that one if not two of the groups are scum.

[Jahudo]

Jahudo has been waffling on Adel/Jebus all game. Me no like. Supports the Caboose + Adel team theory.

What do you mean by waffling? That I don't support the Adel/Jebus wagon but have not found a different place for my vote? I don't think that means I could justifiably put my vote on Adel/Jebus without something new happening with Adel or Mana that I perceive as scummy. Yes, I'm not 100% sure on them, but I am much more confidant that this is a mis-lynch.

And what is this team theory? You mean Jahudo/Opposed Force + Adel/Mana as scum pairs? I understand how defending someone that others view as scummy looks scummy. But I think it's level-headed.

I think that being so confidant in a wagon while it causes tag-along voters like Caboose, and voters of every group including at least one scum pair should have given more caution.

[Jahudo]

Looking at that game, I do see similar posts in there that he's made here

Could someone explain? I don't see what is similar and what exactly we are comparing.

[Jahudo]

I thought you were going to do a chart. Did you change your mind?

That was post 288 I think.

[Jahudo]

The more I think that Adel/Mana is a mislynch on noob mistakes to give scum a day without too many other investigations going around, the worse I'm beginning to feel about how this wagon got started and how has been around to let it get this far without stepping back and thinking about alternatives.

Caboose I'd be interested to hear what you think of Adel and Mana's recent actions since you last posted.

Empking still looks kinda wishy-washy but I think Goat looks pro-town. And maybe Karne's pro-wagon posts are in line with town thinking. They're succinct and sound confidant, I just wish they explained his position more so we know what he has to defend if this goes to day 2.

So since I think this is a mislynch waiting to happen, I don't feel right about armix letting this go so far without having more doubt and wanting to look into other people, especially looking for the scum pair that's on the Adel wagon. Your eagerness doesn't feel right.

Vote: armix

[Jahudo]

Also, why is GoatRevolt keeping his joke vote on me nearing the end of D1?

That is interesting. Judging by his recent posts, 3 of the last 5 have been to say his catching up to the game. He FoS Adel as his top suspect back in post 238 but claimed not to know the vote count.

The facts Adel provided make sense to me, and the thorough explanation of his position in addition to information we can gather from the chart make me feel uneasy about an Adel lynch.

Better late then never, although I'm wondering if you have a different suspect than armix.

[Jahudo]

Empking was another one I thought may be taking advantage of this wagon without really caring where it went. Defending L-1 like it was no big deal, especially when he wasn't confidant in Adel as scum (just Jebus and Mana) doesn't fit. Also hasn't acknowledged how/why a scum-pair would vote for Adel/Mana if they are the other scum, but he hasn't been around the past few days.

I just wish we had more time because I don't feel as if Empking has said enough since replacing in, and hasn't had a whole lot of original opinion to put on him.

Goat meanwhile has been oddly distant from scum hunting, at least that's how it feels recognizing that he's only placed one FoS so far. He's spent part of the day doing math about the random lynch idea, and one post saying Adel is strawmanning the pre-game chat as absurd. It does feel strange how little he's trail blazed on his own to make a point or question somebody.

Out of the three I used to think took this mislynch out of proportion (Empking, Karne, Caboose) Empking did look more visibly scummy, but I still don't feel right about how armix took the lead on this wagon without wondering why every group was on it at L-1.

[Jahudo]

Does Empking mean the argument that every lover pair had one vote on him?

If a lover pair has both members out of the wagon, they must be the other scum backing away? But since everyone knows this Caboose doesn't want to be the first to unvote because then everyone will make the connection and kill them anyway?

But if no one was the first to unvote, the lynch would happen anyway given the majority rules deadline. It's win-win for the town then, I guess. Unless Adel wasn't scum.

[Jahudo]

3. All those voting armlx, why are you still voting for him? What makes him a more convincing target than others?

My main point is that he is very resolute in his opinion but does not spend time with the hypothetical scenario that Adel flips town and we go to day 2. He also doesn't search for the other scum partner that was on the wagon, which I think would've helped the case today. I feel his first priority was ending Day 1 even if it didn't close all angles.

Back around Aug 28 I think Mana made a convincing argument by saying that every pair had 1 vote on Adel/Mana. I understand the argument that this would not be instant suicide for the other scum pair, but I find it hard to believe that a distancing strategy could remain so calm and unnoticeable at L-1 in a lover-suicide setup. Aside from that, I don’t think the evidence of Jebus’ dumb strategy, the chat dialog, Mana and Adel’s defenses point to obvscum.

If Adel/Mana are scum, how can we spot the other scum?

The order of the voters went armix 1, karne 2, caboose 3, force 4, kloud 5, empy 6. Based only on that I can see where the early voters could’ve started a safe-distancing strategy. Once momentum kicked in it’s less likely that the later voters were trying to distance, and bussing is suicide. So armix, karne, caboose and maybe force fit the bill. But kloud at position 5 looks like risky-distancing unless they felt they could change the course of this wagon or hope that others would. Empking-scum really had to be confidant that no one would hammer.

1) Armix had plenty of reasons over time to support his vote, he was real confidant and even influenced some of the votes on Adel, but I don't see where he started to show doubts. kloud comes in to make the distance even more dangerous. Leaves alot to chance.

2) Karne would not give us much reason behind his vote, so maybe that’s where he could’ve reneged on his enthusiasm for the wagon. StrangerCoug also was a voice of reason, so even though he looks pro-town he could’ve tried to prevent a distance from becoming a bus-suicide.

I'm going to vote: Adel though I am happy voting 3fj, kloud, or armlx.

This quote makes me think Karne is trying to safe-distance, but from whom? Adel-scum or Armix-scum?

3) Caboose voted because of the chat dialog but not other reasons, voted in position 3, and went inactive for a while. They could add up to a reversal of opinion on his own terms, fulfilling the safe-distance strategy. But he didn’t come back voluntarily until it COULD’VE been too later. Farside didn’t show enough partiality to influence the wagon either. If he’s scum with Adel, they put a lot of faith into chance.

4) OpposedForce voted fourth. It was also his last vote so we don’t know how he would’ve reacted to Adel at L-1. Any opinion I give is WIFOM though so I won’t unless asked.

But if Adel has to be scum hypothetically, I think Karne/Coug are the other partners.

[Jahudo]

I just realized the deadline applies to 7pm BST, British Standard Time. I think that converts to 2pm US Eastern Standard Time. It confused me, anyway.

[Jahudo]

A couple questions:

1. Does anyone who thinks Adel is scum agree/disagree with my ideas (post 440) on who would be the other scum pair?

2. Is anyone currently voting for armix, thinking about voting for armix, or voting for Adel because they don't want to see armix lynched, open to/would be more confident switching to a non-Adel and non-armix lynch? Why or why not?

3. People on the Karne or Empking wagons, do you have ideas for the other scum pair?

4. If you had a backup vote, who would it be on?


I'll answer these myself in a little bit...

[Jahudo]

Yeah I thought this was a nightless setup, or does that just mean no night roles but there is a gap of time between day 1 and 2?

1. Does anyone who thinks Adel is scum agree/disagree with my ideas (post 440) on who would be the other scum pair?

I agree Jenethron that Caboose could have easily unvoted because he used weak reasoning, but I also think that makes Karne's vote easy to undo since it has little explanation. In terms of a distancing strategy, Caboose and Farside scum kept cool under pressure and stuck to the plan, but also left alot of their survival in the hands of others. Karne/Coug as scum made their polar feelings more clear. I guess I'm agreeing that Caboose/Farside is a possibility then.

2. Is anyone currently voting for armix, thinking about voting for armix, or voting for Adel because they don't want to see armix lynched, open to/would be more confident switching to a non-Adel and non-armix lynch? Why or why not?

Yes and Karne was in my mind as scummy from the time I thought he didn't explain his Adel vote.

3. People on the Karne or Empking wagons, do you have ideas for the other scum pair?

If Karne is scum, it looks like Caboose/Farside is the only option given the vote count. Neither have posted since Karne became suspect #1.

Karne's meta on Empking wouldn't have been to protect him, however. Not sure what that tells us.

Vote: Citizen Karne

[Jahudo]

armix: Why did you vote for Karne if you thought Adel/Man and Caboose/Farside were the two scum pairs?

[Jahudo]

Might using metas taken from non-lover setups be less effective reads on this game that is lovers? Or does it not matter?

[Jahudo]

So back to possible Adel scum buddies. There might still be something to learn from this. Empking took Adel to L-1 on Aug 28 and a day-and-a-half later Adel and armix had a cease-fire to do the diagram so a hammer anytime after that would be bad.

At L-1 there was Adel, Mana, Goat, Farside, Coug and me who could have hammered during that day-and-a-half window. Rule out Coug (town), Adel, and Mana. The three remaining have been at least mildly suspicious of Adel and cautious of his bandwagon given the idea that “1 of every group is on”.

Anyways I can't believe Adel of all people is using the newbie card for anyone.
I don't like meta, but seriously Adel when have you givin a newbie a break?
FOS: Adel.

The pretense of placing a vote later on, but on it's own I don't think it's enough for a hammer without farside getting suspicions for it.

I'm not voting for you and if Caboose was around I will tell him to unvote you.

We can only guess what she would have said before Adel asked for the time to do a diagram. This was afterwards.

I agree with you Adel, but my problem is I'm a lone voice in this maddess.

Pretense of wanting to change wagons. And why say you were the only one who saw this when clearly others had before you? That’s twice (at least) that you haven’t read the posts in this game. (the other when you missed Adel’s diagram).

My current top suspect is Adel, and the majority of my suspicion is based on the way she defended herself by strawmanning the nature of the attacks against her, and thus trying to make those attacks appear weaker than they are. I'll just stick with a FoS Adel for now until I look at a vote count.

The pretense of placing a vote, although he showed restraint by wanting to see the vote count (it was L-1 at the time, so I assume from this quote he wouldn't have hammered).

I think Adel makes a good point about nobody standing up to defend. I need to look through and see if this is actually the case, but if so, that's a fairly solid observation and would certainly suggest this being a mislynch.

This could be the pretense of trying to redirect the wagon away from Adel, or an honest understanding of the mislynch situation.

I won’t present my own quotes, but 252 is where I acknowledged Mana that every lover pair had a vote on them. I don't think I ever said anything to qualify me for a hammer.

Anyway, my theory is that the hammer could have been less likely to happen than we thought. Coug also had concerns that Adel was being mislynched and neither farside, Goat or I had posted like we were going to hammer.

If Adel’s hypothetical scum partners were on this wagon, when do you think they might have realized this? That answer may explain when the scum would have stayed on or jumped on, feeling like it could be orchestrated away from them.

[Jahudo]

You can't rule out Coug because he's town. Town doesn't mean he wouldn't have hammered, unless you think scum are the ones who exclusively place hammer votes.

His suspicions on Adel were limited to the OMGUS on armix. He was more interested in armix and Empking so what I'm saying is that it would take more time and posting by Coug to justify a hammer by him. I feel that farside, Goat, and I were in the same situation in that regard. This could be interpreted as a safety net by the other scum pair IF Adel/Mana are scum.

In my opinion this makes me wonder if Adel/Mana are scum a little more than I thought yesterday; but in the difficulty of deciding the other pair of Adel/Mana, I'll focus on the other pair without linking to Adel/Mana. I'll look at Caboose/Farside with Goat/Emp first.

By having the person state what they said during the quick topics time can verify a few things and may catch scum slipping up to make something up.

I don't see how this helps, given anyone can fake a quick topic to fit how they played after the fact. I also feel that this is a diversion from the actual game and won't help us as much as analyzing the game posts.

[Jahudo]

Now my problem with empking's comments is that Llama is usually a lot more talkative then that. Perfect couple, not much to say. That just sounds bland for Llama.

What do you mean by "bland" exactly? Is it the same as not being as talkative or opinionated? I'm not that familiar with llama's style and didn't see anything too specific in the time he was here.

[Jahudo]

I think Jen and I are the last ones. Who do you want first?

[Jahudo]

Me: hey. Don't know if there's much to discuss. I read some open 76, also polygamist, and people claimed partners early.

Him: Hi, I read that too. Eventually people will claim, not necessary right away but when others do it, then we can.

[Jahudo]

It makes it more dificult to find scum as scum will just paraphrase their partner's fake claim.

Do you think scum did this here? What from each paraphrase looks easier/harder to the other scum lover to replicate?

1)
Empking talks about what only Llama wrote (good lover pair, not much to discuss, new players) (562)

Goat lists what he and Llama said and matching the key points of Emp's read (good lover pair, not much to discuss, bunch of new players). The only new thing I got from Goat is that they talked about looking for pairs not individuals. (621)

2)
Caboose talked about what he and Farside both said but it was based on memory and not looking at the conversation, apparently. (588)

Farside talked about her part only and went into more detail than Caboose. She repeated the clump/cluster idea and had a few more standard things to say (i'm for claiming, just look for scum)

3)
armix summarizes what both he and kloud said. (not much to discuss, look at vote counts) (626)

kloud basically restates the same thing (629)

4)
Jen writes what Op Force and I talked about (the open 76 game and claiming partners) (632)

I basically restated same thing (635)

[Jahudo]

The only reason I didn't talk as much is my lover was replaced right before the game started and we had only 24 hours to talk so I made it quick and to the point.

I'm confused. You mean Caboose replaced someone else before the game started? And in your quick chat the reason you said hi twice was because he was being replaced? Then why does it say on page 1 that you were the one replaced into the game, not Caboose?

[Jahudo]

Sorry your right I was given 24 hours because I replaced. Sorry I have another game where someone replaced. The 24 hours to talk is accurate.

Then is it still true that in you and Caboose's pre-game chat you were the one who said hi twice to him because he was a no-show?

If you only had 24 hours after being replaced in, I find it harder to believe that you were waiting for him. I also wonder why Caboose didn't mention anything about the other pre-game lover.

Rest of room: Do you agree or disagree that this is an inconsistency?

[Jahudo]

>Me: I say that I haven't had any experience with the set-up, but noticed that voting patterns were a key part in hitting scum in previous games.

Are you talking about previous games with identical or similar setups to this? Did you specifically mention it in pre-game because of the setup or would you have said this for a newbie game, etc.?

Also I don't think armix's pre-game was out of character from what he's done in this game.

[Jahudo]

Vote: Farside22

I'd like to get back to real scumhunting, unless there's some point in telling us what we should have done pre-game. The chats were a little interesting; the only minor slip-up was actually in Farside and that only adds to suspicions I've had and listed previously, and can restate if asked.

[Jahudo]

Because I see four votes on farside, one from each pair. Which means that if farside was town, scum could have finished her off. But that has not happened. Which leads me to believe that farside is scum.

Deja vu, huh? She's at L-2 and if she is scum then there's 3 remaining town off the wagon and 2 would need to vote.

I don't think anyone's been inactive lately and on her bandwagon. It's that same old debate of safe-distancing vs risky suicide. Makes armix look like a less likely pair with farside, but not impossible.

Also, why do you think she's scum? Do you think Caboose is also scummy?

[Jahudo]

I would suggest an unvote at this time. Farside has now 5 votes with 6 needed to lynch. At this moment we have one player inactive, Jenethron, and two players who are voting someone else, me and Goat.
We now have one pair that votes Farside. If this pair is one of the scumpairs, then there is a high possibility that when Goat or Jenethron are online that one of them will vote as well. I don't want to take that risk.

This is a risky situation but it's already crushed at least one scenario: "Farside/Caboose is town AND Pants/Mana is scum" cannot be true. This certainly changes SweatpantsNinja's motives the last page or so, if you thought this scenario was true.

I'd like to see the next Goat post to crush another theory. I'm only a little worried it might be true and end the game. Farside/Caboose and Goat/Emp are my top picks right now.

But I can unvote if someone wants to debate that "Farside/Caboose are town and Goat/Emp are scum" scenario is true.

[Jahudo]

crap I was not expecting that.

[Jahudo]

So, um, did we win? Did we lose?

I think you would know that.

I was town, hoping to catch Goat not-hammer and realize that no scenarios could allow farside to be town. So it's emp/goat and armix/kloud. Dang.

[Jahudo]

Aw, now I wish Coug/Karne made it to day two so they would've had to explain that pre-game