Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[northsidegal]

Votecount 1.23

Mohab500

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(5):

Umlaut (596), Eevee (622), Raya36 (634), Snowblaze (646), Ydrasse (658)

Snowblaze

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(5):

Montosh (511), Menalque (532), Almost50 (570), Something_Smart (671), RCEnigma (672)

RCEnigma

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(1):

Mohab500 (502)

Ydrasse

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(1):

Fredrick A Campbell (714)

Not Voting

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(1):

Titus

With 13 alive, it’s 7 to lynch. The Day 1 deadline is in (expired on 2020-07-16 11:50:59).

[Menalque]

And mohab does it again *Sigh* (And so does chemist)

Mohab is still in the game? It’s Holden who repped

[Menalque]

NSG is annoyingly good at denying me pagetops

[Menalque]

This is why everyone respects her reads so much: everyone knows that your clout on mafiascum.net is directly linked to your ability to consistently get some strong pagetops

[Montosh]

182 Good post by Ydrasse on Craig, though the closer they got to hammer the less likely I'd be able to keep it up and go all in on the too scummy to be scum.
197 The backing down from Craig could be town but honestly it just feels like it's... not
202 Eevee fairly town, makes a good point. RCE's post seems more show-y than anything else.
213 My townreads don't like Ydrasse so keep an eye on that, even though I'm not sure about the Craig/Menalque slot up to this point.
230 Mohab reads list.
244I don't entirely agree. I think scum might do Craig's sorta reaction test but it definitely requires one to be bold I guess
270 Good posts from Frederick here. The response from Snow is underwhelming imo.
292 I like Eevee's continued questioning of RCE here. Plus something feels weird about their posting up to here.
303 Good Fred. Fred is townier than I initially thought. Also I see from their post history that they've mostly played normal games so I could 305 being a legit townslip.
351 I'm okay with voting because of inactivity early on, but I find demanding an explanation for it kind of odd. Like what would you expect Frederick to say here? I don't see any point to it.
356 I agree with Snow's feelings on lurk!scum. Also, Chemist, as Fred points out.
393 I like A50's entrance
415 I inherently like when people go through their thought process/logic. +Town for snow.

[Montosh]

Ok early morning for me tomorrow so I'm off for the night, didn't really expect to get in the game so quick. But i'll be back tomorrow and actually vote and such

[Almost50]

And mohab does it again *Sigh* (And so does chemist)

Mohab is still in the game? It’s Holden who repped

NSG is asking for a mohab replacement in the replacement thread (post 2412)

[Snowblaze]

Cool, still not dead.

Scattered thoughts:
I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Menalque, when you say you’re not trying to force my elimination through... I disagree pretty strongly with that. Asking everyone in sight to vote me counts pretty strongly as forcing my elimination imo.

On Mohab and townslipping, I’m probably not the most neutral and unbiased source, but I feel like there’s a difference between “scum would know this but town wouldn’t, this is therefore a townslip” and “either alignment would know this if they just

read the setup

”.

My paranoid tinfoil brain is telling me that Mohab is town and scum are setting up for two miseliminations in a row. The rest of my brain is hoping that’s not the case.

Will respond to Menalque’s case against me now.

[Snowblaze]

S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

Why Snowblaze over Mohab?

I still think the original reasons for scumreading her are sound: the lack of scumhunting through the day, posts like 110 and 290 are overexplainy in a scummy way I think — there’s no need to say that mohab is scummy but not enough for a vote that early in the game and feeling like you need that level of justification is more likely to come from a new scumplayer I think. Same thing in 290, the reasons are very weak and probably didn’t need to be provided and I struggle to see why town would think it’s necessary to give them while making that vote.

Holden’s point is still valid about how 330 was an odd phrasing for why she was unvoting fredrick although her explanation in 530 isn’t unreasonable. However, speaking of 530, she has referred a couple of times to “not really having many scumreads” which I think is scummy (and more so from newbscum tbh) as I think it can be hard to come up with a convincing fake scumread when you’re scum and so it can be easier to just avoid that by saying “ahh everyone is just kinda town :/“

Her reads in 415 have an IIoA vibe to them where she’s just sort of describing what slots are like or what people have done rather than trying to figure out their alignments, and her 4 recent walls have nothing that I don’t think could be faked by scum in them and I see them as very out of sync with my own reads and impressions of those slots. They also just seem disjointed as a whole — like my pick for the scumteam rn is probably (snow, raya, eevee) and I think that makes a lot of sense given how they’ve reacted to one another and to the gamestate, which is the final bit of why I think snow is scum — the wagon on her came up quite naturally I’d say, but has been resisted throughout (it’s part of my scumreads on eevee and raya that I think they were both doing this) but no-one has really been wanting to towncase snow, they’ve just avoided voting for her or argued for voting elsewhere.

And then mohab feels like a soft target (given the dumbtelling and also the lack of posting) who scum are picking as their counterwagon to keep it off snow. I don’t feel strongly enough that snow is scum and that mohab isn’t to want to brute force her lynch (which is something I’m trying to do less anyway, as you may have noted in JK9++ when I didn’t try to force lilith through when her wagon was competing with yours). I wouldn’t be shocked if mohab flipped scum, but it feels much more like she’s the attempt to keep the guillotine off snow after doing the same with RCE failed, and I think there is a lot of pressure on scum to try to ensure that their team don’t get guillotined D1.

1. It’s pretty common for town!me to have a lack of scumreads, particularly on day one.

2. The IIOA thing is because it’s kind of hard to analyse a lack of AI content.

3. Your reads are probably different to mine because you’re approaching things from the perspective that I’m scum.

4. Not really sure where you’re seeing resistance to my wagon, especially early on: it picked up momentum pretty quickly after Holden’s post, I went from zero to E-1 in three pages. That’s not a wagon that’s being resisted by scum.

[Ydrasse]

@ydrasse I just don’t really get why those things make her not scummy. Like if pressure leads to content production but it’s a struggle for scum!snow to come up with realistic scumreads, why would that not manifest as coming up with more detailed but still very non-commital reads?

Also, the self-preserving thing is super null in a situation like this. If I’m town then I’m gonna vote for self-pres even if I think the three person is town because, hey, I might be wrong about them but I know what my role PM is. If I’m scum I’m gonna vote them cause I don’t wanna die. And do you really think snow has enough traction in this game to lead a wagon on anyone new here? Besides which, she doesn’t even have a scumresd to lead said wagon on

fmpov it's like... continuing to offer non-commital reads is a very overtly scummy thing to do? you're refusing to take a stance and if snowblaze were scum i'd imagine she'd try to scrounge up something of a solidified scumread on something. despite not being able to start a new wagon — which i think a snowblaze of either alignment recognizes would not pan out — i guess i just see it as a place where it would be of more benefit to vaguely scumread someone instead of saying "this person is towny, i lean towny on this person" over and over and push herself into a place where she votes

only

out of self preservation.

i recognize that self-preservation is relatively NAI, but it's the fact that she hasn't come up with that scumread yet that makes me townread her more than mohab whose content is well. yeah.

given that we're getting a replacement though for mohab, hopefully it'll be easier to parse that slot. right now though i'm mohab > snow tho.

[RCEnigma]

Still waiting to see the math on the wagonomics.

[RCEnigma]

I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Partly this, the other part is that menalque is tying himself to Mohab heavily so in the event that you flip town and Mohab flips scum the game just ended on a town win. It's a bit on the nose for scum!menalque. It doesn't rule out scum!menalque/town!Mohab however.

[Eevee]

Menalque, when you say you’re not trying to force my elimination through... I disagree pretty strongly with that. Asking everyone in sight to vote me counts pretty strongly as forcing my elimination imo.

I agree with Snow here actually; I think Menalque is trying pretty hard to not get Mohab lynched, and I'm not sure what else is there to do that he isn't doing.

And yeah, you kind of faded out, and then came back in to lead a pretty poor push (in its quality) away from my preferred scum choice. It’s kind of similar to what happened with firebringer in the recent JK9++ game — I started off TRing him for being ~*aorund*~ and having a presence then he sort of faded away and I realised what was there was never a strong basis for a TR anyway. This is all obviously assuming that mohab will flop town and that snow will flip scum. If mohab does flip scum then you’re very likely town.

What about the push do you think is poor quality? But the last part is fair enough, I feel the same way about you.

~Eva

[Eevee]

The second game is entirely consistent with the amount of effort she’s put in here. I already meta’d her, what about her play in this game, besides meta, makes you think she is town?

honestly i don't ~townread~ her content and none of her thoughts scream town - i just scumread Mohab and really want that to go through instead
i do have reasons to townread her otherwise though - they're a little weird but here:
Snow is a relative newbie so being wagoned this hard and coming back with all this effort and motivation is town-indicative on its own and i don't think you can see this level of effort in her newbie scum games

look at her last newbie scum game - she made 8 relatively short posts in the last 5 irl days in that game before she was lynched
compare that to this game where she's made 17 posts in the last 3 days - all with extensive thoughts given out and much longer in length posts than that game

especially for newbie players i think people are more afraid to give out thoughts freely and be transparent when scum so snow doing exactly that right now probably means she's town - and i find it unlikely that the first time she decides to do that as scum is in a game with more experienced players than she's used to outside of the newbie queue

~Eve

[Something_Smart]

UNVOTE:

[Eevee]

@Fredrick: Ydrasse is never happening - move back to Mohab please! we had you cast as the Damsel in Distress and everything (really huge role)

@Smarter_Something: are you against a Mohab lynch? you should vote her if you're not

~Eve

[Something_Smart]

I'm not against Mohab's slot dying; I am, however, against killing an empty slot.

[Menalque]

And mohab does it again *Sigh* (And so does chemist)

Mohab is still in the game? It’s Holden who repped

NSG is asking for a mohab replacement in the replacement thread (post 2412)

Oh, shame

[Menalque]

I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Menalque, when you say you’re not trying to force my elimination through... I disagree pretty strongly with that. Asking everyone in sight to vote me counts pretty strongly as forcing my elimination imo.

Who do you think is on your wagon just because they’re sheeping me? I’m only like the third vote on your wagon.

Me advocating for your guillo is not the same as me forcing it through. You may note that while I’ve asked a number of people to vote you, I’ve yelled at pretty much no-one, nor have I hyperposted the thread into oblivion to drown out any competing voices, nor have I exaggerated how likely i think it is that you’ll flip scum to encourage sheeping/compliance, nor have I threatened anyone with being guillotined on a future day if they don’t get on board with your flip, all of which are characteristic of me forcing a wagon through despite resistance.

[Menalque]

1. It’s pretty common for town!me to have a lack of scumreads, particularly on day one.

2. The IIOA thing is because it’s kind of hard to analyse a lack of AI content.

3. Your reads are probably different to mine because you’re approaching things from the perspective that I’m scum.

4. Not really sure where you’re seeing resistance to my wagon, especially early on: it picked up momentum pretty quickly after Holden’s post, I went from zero to E-1 in three pages. That’s not a wagon that’s being resisted by scum.

(1) I don’t find this meta defence very compelling. You seemed far more assertive when I glanced at your meta. Link me all your completed towngames again and I’ll look a second time?

(2) what do you mean?

(3) well yes, but that’s not all my reads and they’re not all dependent on that. Your reads feel very disjointed— raya makes sense as a partner to you or as independent scum, but I think she makes much less sense with a50/RCE who make sense as a team but only if scum is doing something entirely different to what I thought they were

(4) I will recheck this. I don’t remember you reaching G-1 that quickly, I thought you sat at G-2 for a long time while there was an attempted CW on RCE and then the current one on mohab!slot

[Menalque]

fmpov it's like... continuing to offer non-commital reads is a very overtly scummy thing to do? you're refusing to take a stance and if snowblaze were scum i'd imagine she'd try to scrounge up something of a solidified scumread on something. despite not being able to start a new wagon — which i think a snowblaze of either alignment recognizes would not pan out — i guess i just see it as a place where it would be of more benefit to vaguely scumread someone instead of saying "this person is towny, i lean towny on this person" over and over and push herself into a place where she votes only out of self preservation

Okay, this is a pretty good argument, I’ll think about it. I guess my thought of why it could still be scum is that scum would probably not be choosing to offer non-commitsl reads but that it’s more from not being sure how to come up with a convincing fake scumread (esp when coming up with a really bad fake scumread on someone would probably get her guillotined). So it’s not a choice in the way you’re framing it, it’s scum!indicative from what she can’t do well while being scum

[Menalque]

What about the push do you think is poor quality?

The fact that your main point seems to have been “mohab meta looks different here” and despite that being pretty weak on its own mohab has still become a strong counterwagon to snow

[Menalque]

Fmpov, the issue is this: if snow is town, why are scum so committed to seeing her go through? Because I don’t think anyone else has been advocating that much for a snow!guillo other than me, and I know that I’m town and this is a town push on her. Whereas mohab very much only came up after the RCE wagon attempt had fallen apart

So if snow is town and mohab is scum, why aren’t the actual scum doing anything to resist mohab!flip or to back my snow push? Unless they’re entirely counting on my snow push as a defence of mohab, but that seems unlikely given that I can always change my mind and that putting all your eggs into the “letting a townie defend our scumbuddy” feels like a scumteam ceding far to much ground to be plausible

[Snowblaze]

1. Here you go:
viewtopic.php?t=82899&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&user_select%5B%5D=34214&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=83266&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&user_select%5B%5D=34214&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_sort=Go

2. At the time of my reads post there wasn't really much useful content to go on for several slots.

3. I'm not really looking at the bigger picture yet, I feel like that'll be easier if I have a flip to work with (preferably not mine!)

As for your other question, S_S literally joined my wagon because you asked him to.

pedit: that... is a good point, I am getting really worried that we're dealing with TvT wagons here... I need to go back through the last few pages, work out everyone's positions on me/Mohab, see if I can figure anything out.

[northsidegal]

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