Sheep Game: USpol Edition

[Who]

I think not following politics is probably an advantage. If you follow politics, you know lots of possible answers and it's difficult to distinguish. If you don't follow politics, you only know the most famous, and thus probably the most popular, answer.

[Who]

I can't remember his name, but the old guy who's currently the minority leader - N

Shouldn't this count as Chuck Schumer? Or does the exact text have to match/alternate spellings are allowed but you at least have to remember his name?
Chuck Schumer is the old guy who's currently the minority leader. (At least, he is in the context of the senate. In the context of the house the old guy who is currently minority leader is Kevin Mccarthy)

[Who]

Thanks for running this!

Imagine being optimistic about an election in the year of our lord 2020

The rules very clearly stated that the goal was to be popular, not correct.

7) If Joe Biden had never existed, this person would have become the 2020 Democratic nominee.

Bernie Sanders - 12

Sorry guys, this is either wishful thinking or

trying to draft on others' wishful thinking

. Maybe I'm just bitter about the loss of 10 points here though.

Yes. Yes it was. I 100% agree, Sanders would not have become the nominee. I'm not sure who would have, possibly Warren, possibly Pete, but I think they were both more likely than Sanders. But:
1) There are plenty of people who do think Sanders would have won. Also plenty of these people think that everyone thinks like they do so they'll pick Sanders. And even if they don't exist, plenty of people think they do and will pick Sanders.
2) If we're trying to go for the realistic outcome, there are several different options all with different complicated supporting arguments. If we just pick the "Famous guy who was the last to drop out", there's only one of those. With no communication it's impossible to unify around one non-Sanders option. Even though I agree with you that it's not Sanders, I would probably have picked Pete if Sanders weren't an option.

[Who]

Yeah I misread question 3, I thought it was about speaker of the house. For the question I read, by far the most likely way she's not speaker is if republicans get a majority (Dems are more likely to keep their majority than lose it, but Dems lose is more likely than Pelosi relinquishes power/dies/loses her seat). If the Republicans get a house majority, the most likely speaker is probably the current minority leader, Kevin McCarthy.

For the actual question 3 though, "Name a representative who isn't Nancy Pelosi", yeah I see why AOC was the most popular.

[Who]

also, these results are clearly rigged and i should have won this easily

As the only other person to put a republican for most likely non-pelosi speaker, you get an honorable mention for most realistic and informed.

(Well, technically your answer was even less likely than AOC, but you were clearly going for something related to Pelosi/the speaker of the house position, instead of just naming a random representative)

[Who]

Where are you getting 2%? Betting markets currently have it at 15%. Not that likely, sure, but certainly not out of the question.