Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Raya36]

Like how often does a mislynching wagon have all town on it? Like never. So if the majority of the wagon is conftown then the unconfirmed on the wagon have a very high chance of being scum. Right?

[Raya36]

The only thing here is if scum anticipated this and completely stayed off the wagon. Which maybe is possible but I still think unlikely

[Something_Smart]

Like how often does a mislynching wagon have all town on it?

Way more often than a lot of people think.

[Raya36]

So you think what I'm saying here is not true?

[Ydrasse]

in what situation does s_s just... not... vote on either of the main wagons. like. i feel like that sort of thing reads townier to me personally bc it sticks out like a sore thumb that one of the unconfirmeds isn't going along with w/e else town is doing?

(i know the same thing could be asked about rce but i've sorted rce into town pretty solidly rn so i'm trying to parse s_s. i guess it could be to avoid scrutiny if one of the wagons went through in the case of maf!s_s which would imply a town!a50 fmpov?)

[Ydrasse]

i think there are a few posts within raya's iso that, with the context of d2 going down how it did, read a bit more ? than they did yesterday. i am however too tired to go through them right now in depth

i don't find myself like, convinced that she is Completely Mafia, no doubt, but i feel like i townread s_s a bit more than i did before and townread raya a little less.

rce
raya, s_s
a50, mena

my head is around here right now. i don't think any thing right now that i've read through has really been enough for me to reconsider where i'd wanna vote atm.

good night lovely townies.

[Snowblaze]

Pretty sure it’s not Menalque/A50. I can’t really see a world where Menalque is perfectly okay to switch his vote from Ydrasse to A50 in 1608, and relies on a case made less than twenty-four hours before deadline. And Montosh did say in his last post that he didn’t think they were partners.

[Snowblaze]

And I don’t think being on the Montosh wagon is a valid reason to scumread either. Menalque started the wagon with a case that must have been pretty reasonable to get five conftown to follow it, and A50 joined it for self-preservation, which is NAI.

[Something_Smart]

So you think what I'm saying here is not true?

I disagree with your logic, yes. There's no rule saying that at least one scum has to be on every town execution wagon. Even if in a vacuum every town wagon is likely to have at least one scum on it, that changes when the majority of the wagon is conftown.

[Snowblaze]

@Menalque wagon: do you disagree with my logic that the only likely partner for scum!Menalque is S_S?

(I explained why he’s not partners with A50; Raya, RCE and Ydrasse are all pushing for his elimination today.)

If so, why?

If not, doesn’t it make more sense to eliminate S_S instead of Menalque today?

[Snowblaze]

My hundredth post of the game, and an Unoffical Vote Count (TM):

Menalque 3 (RCEnigma, Ydrasse, Raya36)
Something_Smart 2 (Snowblaze, Almost50)
Ydrasse 2 (Titus, Menalque)
Not voting: Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Something_Smart, Eevee

With eleven alive, it's six to eliminate. Deadline is in about twelve days (can't be bothered to check.)

[Snowblaze]

There has to be at least one scum in (RCE, Raya, S_S) imo, since I don't think it's plausible that any of Menalque/Ydrasse/A50 are partnered with each other.

@everyone: who do you think is most likely scum in those three?

[Titus]

There has to be at least one scum in (RCE, Raya, S_S) imo, since I don't think it's plausible that any of Menalque/Ydrasse/A50 are partnered with each other.

@everyone: who do you think is most likely scum in those three?

RCE or Raya based on the VCs. I don't think if SS is scum with Ydrasse the wagons go like they are.

[Titus]

I mean they could though upon second look.

Meh don't care. Execute Ydrasse.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: RCE

Why?

I think he didn’t play D2 because it would give him enough cred to try and come for my today. If he’s committed to me being scum, he should have been on me hard yesterday, not just passively sitting there

But I had a very townie D2 and that made it difficult. Given that I was wrong again D2, he thinks he can win the 1v1 today (or just generally get me flipped easily if I don’t go after him)

RCEnigma I townread for attempting to solve the game.

Raya36 I currently conclude is town too because he admitted to a mistake in his reasoning.

Menalque I have both sentiments on.

If any of these are horrible reasons to townread someone, feel free to tell me so. If they are good reasons, I would also like to know.

[Snowblaze]

Adding Raya/RCE to my list of improbable teams, although less confident than the others - I don’t think scum vote their partner purely for a wagon like Raya did in 454.

[Snowblaze]

Possible teams with both scum on my day one wagon

RCEnigma/Almost50

Possible Teams with both scum on the Maemuki wagon day one

Something_Smart/Raya36
Ydrasse/Raya36

Possible teams with one scum on each day one wagon

Menalque/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Ydrasse
Almost50/Something_Smart

There doesn’t appear to be any pair of eliminations that gives us an auto-win assuming I haven’t ruled out the actual team. The closest I can get is S_S and RCE, and that still loses to Raya/Ydrasse.

[Snowblaze]

Actually, does anyone think there’s a realistic chance that any of the teams I’ve eliminated are the scumteam?

[Raya36]

So you think what I'm saying here is not true?

I disagree with your logic, yes. There's no rule saying that at least one scum has to be on every town execution wagon. Even if in a vacuum every town wagon is likely to have at least one scum on it, that changes when the majority of the wagon is conftown.

Alright. Scratch that then

[Raya36]

Actually, does anyone think there’s a realistic chance that any of the teams I’ve eliminated are the scumteam?

You really don't think menalque could be scum with anyone?

[Raya36]

I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

A gambit that may have cost them the game.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Still doesn't mean it wasn't done, however.

[Titus]

I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

I'd consider that from Ydrasse onto A50. The Monotosh wagon was too pure.

[Raya36]

I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

A gambit that may have cost them the game.

But the wagon on A50 was already building up. Menalque not voting A50 likely wouldn't stop it