Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Craig Pelton

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: holden

VOTE: mohab

These votes are 4 and a half hours apart. Why the vote change?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am gonna ask a really dumb question but, can there be power roles in this game?

Check the

SETUP

spoiler in the post below.

GAME RULES

GENERAL

Spoiler:

-Adhere to all site rules.
-Always play to win.
-Remember that this is a game - heated discussion is allowed, but personal attacks are not. Comment on play, not player.
-Pretending to break the rules will be treated similarly as actually breaking the rules.
-Do not quote any private communication regarding this game—this includes your role PM, other mod communication, posts from private threads, etc. Paraphrasing is acceptable. If you're unsure, ask me first.
-If you need to get my attention, please include "

@mod

" in your post or PM me.
-

This

(darkred) is my color. You can use it, if you want.
-Do not use encryption, hidden text or excessively small text in your posts.
-Do not use any form of provable randomness. This includes dice tags, screenshots of random.org, etc. Saying you flipped a coin is okay, providing some sort of proof that you did isn’t.
-Each day phase will last for 12 days, with night phases lasting 48 hours.
-Do not post in the game thread or any private topics following your death, with the exception of the dead thread.
-If you have the ability to edit your posts, do not do so.
-My decisions are final. If I feel you are violating any of the rules, I will take the appropriate action.
-As a general principle, whenever moderator action is required I will attempt to make the decision that has the least impact on the natural flow of gameplay. For example, force replacing instead of modkilling whenever possible.
-Point 1 from the rules regarding replacement here does not apply. Unless I inform you otherwise, you are allowed to replace back in if a replacement hasn't been found yet.
-Have fun!

VOTING

Spoiler:

-All votes and unvotes must be in

bold

or in VOTE: tags, with vote tags being preferable.
-Votes in spoilers will not be counted.
-Abbreviations and nicknames are acceptable, as long as I can understand them.
-Lynches will occur when a majority (>50%) is reached. If no majority is reached before deadline, the player with the most votes will be lynched. Ties will be resolved by wagon seniority. If the day ends with no votes cast, a random town-aligned player will die.
-Once a hammer has occurred, the game is in "twilight". Discussion may continue until I lock the thread but no further votes or unvotes will be counted.

ACTIVITY

Spoiler:

-You are expected to make at least one game-relevant post every 48 hours. Players who go 48 hours without posting will be prodded.
-If you are prodded, you have 24 hours to post in-thread. If you do not respond within 24 hours, you will be replaced. Additionally, if I have to prod you 3 or more times, I reserve the right to replace you at my own discretion.
-Abuse of prod dodges will result in you being replaced at my own discretion.
-If you are going to be V/LA, please announce it in thread or PM me. If your V/LA will last 7 days or longer I may be forced to replace you.

SETUP

Spoiler:

Secrets of the Anuket Topaz

Roles

:

• 10 Vanilla Townies
  
  
• 3 Mafia Goons

Mechanics

:

• The first two nights are skipped.
  
• Day 1 and Day 2, if a member of the Mafia is lynched, they must confirm 5 living players to be aligned with the town.
  • This will result in their loss if Mafia is lynched both Day 1 and Day 2.
• Starting from Day 3, the Mafia will begin escaping.
  • Each night, in addition to a mandatory kill, one of the Mafia must choose to escape, and will exit the game being revealed to be Mafia.
    
  • At this point, if just one of the Mafia is lynched, the Mafia loses.
    
  • The Mafia win when all living members escape.
• If no Mafia were lynched Day 1 or Day 2, one member of the mafia will escape immediately following the end of Day 2.

If you have any questions about the setup, feel free to ask.

Spoiler: Sample Town Role PM

Anuket Topaz Crew Card

Welcome aboard the

Anuket Topaz

, TODO. This card serves as proof of your status as

Crewman

.


VANILLA TOWN

• You have no special abilities. Your vote is your weapon.

You win when all other winconditions become impossible to achieve.
The

Anuket Topaz

's location is here. Once on-board, please confirm by replying with your alignment.

• NAME:
  ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
  
  
• DOB:
  ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
  
  
• HT:
  ⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
  
  
• WGT:
  ⠀⠀⠀
  lbs
  
• CLASS: VT

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So, I make an RVS vote, then after RVS I remove it, and suddenly everybody somehow didn't expect that?

Exactly. I didn't expect that.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So, I make an RVS vote, then after RVS I remove it, and suddenly everybody somehow didn't expect that?

Exactly. I didn't expect that.

Hello musical composer.

Would you like to give opinions on the events of the game. Are you in favor for the main wagon so far? Who do you like better: eve or eva?

I am in favour of the main wagon. I like neither.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So, I make an RVS vote, then after RVS I remove it, and suddenly everybody somehow didn't expect that?

Exactly. I didn't expect that.

Hello musical composer.

Would you like to give opinions on the events of the game. Are you in favor for the main wagon so far? Who do you like better: eve or eva?

I am in favour of the main wagon. I like neither.

Would you like to explain the former? What do you like about it? If you favour it, what is making you decide not to vote it?

I am fine with a wagon on Craig Pelton because of their posts.

I already am voting Craig Pelton. I started it.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Snowblaze

[Fredrick A Campbell]

On Porkens: I find it less likely that scum would accuse someone of not posting game-relevant stuff on the first page, just because it would draw a lot of unfavourable attention that scum wouldn’t want. Although now I look back through the ISO, there’s not much game-relevant stuff in there, which is kind of hypocritical.

I’ll need to have a better look through the replacement’s posts to work out my current read.

@Fredrick, why are you voting for me?

You have reads in the first 24 hours of the game.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Mohab500

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick, did you lose the ability to speak at some point recently?

No.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick, did you lose the ability to speak at some point recently?

No.

+1

So...

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick, did you lose the ability to speak at some point recently?

No.

+1

So...

-1

I don't understand +1 or -1. Care to clarify?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

How was it that you liked a post that just said no?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

While I've got you, what made you vote Mohab?

It's just a random vote. But telling you that has made it useless now.

VOTE: Snowblaze

Snowblaze, why is it that you have not made a single vote this game?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

While I've got you, what made you vote Mohab?

It's just a random vote. But telling you that has made it useless now.

VOTE: Snowblaze

Snowblaze, why is it that you have not made a single vote this game?

Because I have yet to find scumreads I’m confident enough in to vote for them.

Why would you vote randomly outside RVS?

Just to test reactions.

You may not have found anyone in which you are confident enough to vote for, but I have seen you voting despite this in your other games, including Newbie 2002 and Newbie 2010.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Some of those were in RVS, and others I was more confident than I am now. And if you’ve been researching my meta, you’ll know that I also voted early in 1998 and 2005, in which I was scum.

I didn't look at those games.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...you know, it would be a lot easier to read you if you explained things without being asked occasionally.

I don't really know what anyone wants me to explain.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...

...you know, it would be a lot easier to read you if you explained things without being asked occasionally.

I don't really know what anyone wants me to explain.

In this case, the vote for someone you haven’t previously mentioned without giving reasoning.

Ydrasse has posted thrice in the span of over 72 hours since this game started.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...

...you know, it would be a lot easier to read you if you explained things without being asked occasionally.

I don't really know what anyone wants me to explain.

In this case, the vote for someone you haven’t previously mentioned without giving reasoning.

Ydrasse has posted thrice in the span of over 72 hours since this game started.

And Sujimichi has posted once, yet you’re not voting for them. Why is that?

(Also, Umlaut is confirmed scum for offences against grammar.)

Sujimichi claims to be busy and has indeed not been posting anywhere online (citation). Ydrasse, however has been posting in other places on site but decided not to post in this game (citation).

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

Where is this specified?

Isn't it that no daytalk is the default?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Isn't it that no daytalk is the default?

Why do you think this?

~Eva

"Mafia may have daytalk without an Encryptor as long as it is announced in the game's rules beforehand."

So, if no such announcement is made, there is no daytalk without an encryptor and no daytalk is thus the default.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I think Fredrick is ok. No slip there. Unless he backpedaled hard and successfully

What is "backpedaled"?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Yeah, thinking that's a genuine townslip from Fredrick. (Note to Fredrick: This isn't a "Normal Game" but an Open, and doesn't have to follow the rules about normal games)

So if there is nothing about daytalk in the rules, there might be daytalk?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Frederick comes off genuine. Didn't really think claiming there was no day talk to discredit Mohab made much sense in the first place.

I don't think the post quoted below was discrediting anyone.

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...
@fredrick: what reasons do you think i would have for not posting here as much? (303)
...

I am not going to give you the reasons I thought up so that you can use them. Give us your reasons.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

@Mod:

How long does a day last in this universe?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

@Mod:

How long does a day last in this universe?

We have like 7 days left, check the last VC

According to my calculations, I calculated that we were given 12 real-life days to start the day.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: According to my calculations, I calculated that we were given 12 real-life days for this day.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I think Fredrick is ok. No slip there. Unless he backpedaled hard and successfully

What is "backpedaled"?

Going back on what you said

I don't remember backpedalling on anything.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Chemist1422

I would like to point out what this player has done is worse than Ydrasse. (citation)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Chemist1422

I would like to point out what this player has done is worse than Ydrasse. (citation)

Your citation is their list of posts sitewide. Could you be a little more specific?

Sure. I just thought I didn't have to to be understood. Chemist1422 had posted more in their other games than Ydrasse had in the same span of time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...
@fredrick: what reasons do you think i would have for not posting here as much? (303)
...

I am not going to give you the reasons I thought up so that you can use them. Give us your reasons.

honestly, hearing that makes it seem like there's not a whole lot of reason behind it.

i wasn't active here because it's my first non-newbie game and i find it daunting to tackle a new setup and concepts. it's way easier for me to offer content to games that i have been active in before i went v/la and that i am comfortable with the setups for. there's less i feel i have to go through and think about in those than here where save for a brief in the moment thoughts i haven't been able to get too deeply into reading through until last night when i was up to the task.

A reason you might have been doing so was to do so was to do your part in stalling the game, which I thought.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Frederick comes off genuine. Didn't really think claiming there was no day talk to discredit Mohab made much sense in the first place.

I don't think the post quoted below was discrediting anyone.

Bear with me since I rarely play setups besides the Newbie one, but is Holden being post-restricted? I don't remember which game it was that had a player similarly bound by pirate-speak.

in contrast to Mohab's setup question - this i like

Homura usually plays newbie games and she's apparently played in game where a player had a pirate speak post restriction before so this is a legitimate question to ask
it being a legitimate question means she could've asked it in her scum PT or not suspected it in the first place if scum have said soemthing about the open setup in there

it's minor High Seas points to Homura - let's just say 1 actually i don't do halves

~Eve

I would like to point out that mafia doesn't have daytalk and Homura thus couldn't have asked it in the scum PT. Also, scum might not have said anything about the open setup in there, causing what we observed.

Err I meant Homura there. You aren't discrediting a read directly but by challenging Eevee's basis for defending Homura by pointing out no day talk it nullifies the reasoning eevee had.

But day talk can be confirmed or disconfirmed so it's not something scum would fake having or not having. I'm saying I don't think that's what you were doing there.

"But day talk can be confirmed or disconfirmed so it's not something scum would fake having or not having." I didn't claim to be scum and have daytalk. What are you trying to say?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...
@Fredrick, generally if you want people to vote for someone with you it’s wise to make yourself understood.
...

I've attempted to make a clarification. If there is something you still don't understand, please be more explicit.

VOTE: Chemist1422

I would like to point out what this player has done is worse than Ydrasse. (citation)

Your citation is their list of posts sitewide. Could you be a little more specific?

Sure. I just thought I didn't have to to be understood. Chemist1422 had posted more in their other games than Ydrasse had in the same span of time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...
Chemist gets slight townpoints for their only response to Fredrick’s accusations being “wat”, I feel like scum would be more likely to take accusations seriously.
...

I would like to point out that since making that post, Chemist1422 has posted 4 times in Micro 953: Treestump Express as of the time I am making this post. (citation)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I had a minor emergency come up this afternoon-evening and now it's 3am and I have to sleep. I'll engage with this game tomorrow.

Whatever it is, I wish it was solved. See you in the morning. (Your morning, it's already afternoon here.)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

holden's take on the mechanics was towny imo it's a bit bold for scum

Which takes do you referring to? And why do you think mechanic talk is "bold" in any circumstance?

~Eva

Anyway, I just noticed this post and looked through your ISO, Chemist1422. You have not responded to this question and I am interested in the answer.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

@RCEnigma, who do you think is most likely to be “scum agreeing and banking on a low info lurker lynch”?

If snow/ydrasse/suji has >2 scum probably Mohab/menalque/Raya farther off, ≈1/2 scum.

I'm less certain that Ydrasse is scum now. His given reason for what he did is consistent with observable evidence. That just makes him null for me, though.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...
Chemist gets slight townpoints for their only response to Fredrick’s accusations being “wat”, I feel like scum would be more likely to take accusations seriously.
...

I would like to point out that since making that post, Chemist1422 has posted 4 times in Micro 953: Treestump Express as of the time I am making this post. (citation)

you shouldn't talk about other ongoing voyages btw

why have you decided to use cross game activity tells to this extent on today's cruise? i skimmed though your last town expedition and couldn't find you use a single one - do you scumread anyone in this game for their content alone and not those tells?

~Eve

I just thought it was a way to help me form a read. Thanks for reminding me that I shouldn't be talking about other ongoing voyages. I have forgotten about that.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I’m not going to answer fredrick because I’m of the opinion that cross-game activity tells should be against the rules if they aren’t already

Don't think the below is even remotely related to cross-game activity.

holden's take on the mechanics was towny imo it's a bit bold for scum

Which takes do you referring to? And why do you think mechanic talk is "bold" in any circumstance?

~Eva

Anyway, I just noticed this post and looked through your ISO, Chemist1422. You have not responded to this question and I am interested in the answer.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I don’t particularly want to control the game here but people need to stop fucking around on 2 person wagons and get to voting some people up

My candidate is Holden. Get onboard or tell me why I’m wrong

That’s @evwryone

Would you explain where that vote is coming from?

Feel like Holden has very much disappeared from the game as a presence after having done just enough to seem like town + he’s voting me which is a wagon I would expect a scum to have gotten on

But town is just as likely to go on that wagon.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I just noticed HoldenGolden is on V/LA. That might explain his absence.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick why are you seemingly actively opposed to building a wagon?

I'm not. I am just doing what you asked of everyone, which is to "Get onboard or tell me why I’m wrong".

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Okay, only you’re not telling me why Holden is town you’re just resisting the push

You only told me to tell you why you might be wrong, not that he is town.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

And Holden is not VLA?

But when I clicked on "Activity overview", it says that he is.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

In the meantime, how about a vote for Holden?

How about a vote for Chemist1422?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

In the meantime, how about a vote for Holden?

How about a vote for Chemist1422?

No. Chemist is literally the laziest vote you could be making in this playlist and trying to read him off activity tells is shit and never works. Also chemist has lowkey towntold this game

By the way, my vote is currently on them for refusing to clarify themself.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Also why is refusing to clarify himself even scummy? Do you think scum actively go “yeah nah I’m gonna piss off this towny and get them to vote for me” when appeasing and getting people to TR you is literally the name of the game as scum

I think they try and sow confusion. Not clarifying anything is quite a useful way to achieve that goal.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Trying to pressure chemist is actively counter productive most of the time because he just feels less like playing when he’s town and is therefore less likely to answer, and as scum he just has to replicate that. Only he rolls town more than he rolls scum, so lynching him for it is such a waste and it’s why he’s /consistently/ someone scum try to lynch on D1 or keep around for a compromise lynch

Or he gets white knighted sometimes too. But if you leave him be he actually has good insights often and is discernible from being scum when he is town over a longer period.

So voting for him is dumb and lazy and bad and you should stop doing it and vote somewhere productive

I'll just take your word for it. For now.

VOTE: Raya36

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Let me guess... because Raya hasn't posted for a while?

Exactly. 44 hours to be exact.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

And also a reminder to everyone that Raya36 is a player in this game.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fredrick what are you even doing

Voting.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

What's the point of that vote Fredrick? am I missing something? going to explain?

I'll give it some time to ferment.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

What's the point of that vote Fredrick? am I missing something? going to explain?

I'll give it some time to ferment.

Ok I'll help.
Why are you voting me?

I'm not.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: HoldenGolden

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Snowblaze

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Snowblaze

Is this because of Holden’s post, or because I haven’t posted in a while?
...

It is because of Holden's post.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Ugh I wish I had just found time to play yesterday because now I'm playing catch-up

What are the wagons rn?

Snowblaze: 2 votes to execution
RCEnigma: 2 votes to execution

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Ugh I wish I had just found time to play yesterday because now I'm playing catch-up

What are the wagons rn?

Snowblaze: 2 votes to execution
RCEnigma: 2 votes to execution

Thanks, reading up now

I must have made a mistake. According to the votecount, RCEnigma is at 5 votes to execution.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Another mistake, it should be 4 votes to execution in the post above.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why snowblaze and ydrasse?

I will answer this once a plurality of the thread have answered my question about what they think scum would be doing

Menalque, are you going to answer this yet?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

yeah Snow has been scummy actually
she's playing to her scum meta of having plenty of reads early and there's none of that free flowing paranoia that comes with her towngame
and the fredrick unvote and RCE votes are both bad

don't mind that wagon either

~Eve

It’s more just... I never really managed to get properly invested in this game (probably a good thing, considering I’d be feeling much worse about my wagon if I was!)

And... I wouldn’t say it’s exactly early in the game, three-quarters of the way into day one. My scum meta is more having early

scum

reads rather than the point I’m at now of a townpile and a nullish-pile.

Why is it a good thing to not feel much worse about your wagon?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

@Fredrick: because I don’t want to be stressed by an internet game? Because I don’t like feeling bad?

Fair enough.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

what's even going on anymore lol

Is the posting rate still too high for you to catch up?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I had a problem with the snow wagon but I don't remember what it was and the lack of defense is meh. There are a few people I think might have scumtold but it's mostly comparing to things I've done/said in past scum games.

That's a tomorrow issue.
VOTE: Snowblaze
L-1

Welp. Could you... not do that? I’d rather not be eliminated. I’ve probably left it far too late to do anything about it, but...

Yeah, sorry. I haven’t been contributing enough, I haven’t been my usual obvtown self, I’ve just never really had enough information to work with. And I’m not going to have time for it today, and after that there’s a deadline and no plausible counter-wagon to me.

I did try to explain myself wrt Holden’s post; if you mean “no-one else is defending me” then that’s actually a good point: wouldn’t my hypothetical scum partners be trying to keep me alive? Actually, general question @everyone on my wagon: if I’m scum, what are my partners doing?

If I have time later and no-one’s hammered I’ll see if I can manage some analysis, but I can’t promise anything.

Your partners are staying low to ensure that they are not suspected for protecting you.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Mohab500

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am gonna ask a really dumb question but, can there be power roles in this game?

To me, this post shows that she is aware this question she is asking is dumb. It is a leap of logic, but I think it suggests that she is making a show of it.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Titus

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...

Looking at the VCs alone, I postulate a snow Frederick Ydrasse team.

I could see Fred omgussing off this post but I'll let him speak on it if he wants. This is the meta part, Titus uses VCA heavily so if nothing else this post feels obligatory. Scum!Titus flipping would probably mean she's playing towards the crowd familiar with her. It could come from either alignment so it isn't damning but there isn't any follow up or process being shared to support the fos.
...

I wasn't.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So if it’s not OMGUS, what made you vote for Titus? Her vote for the same person you were voting for at the time?

Exactly.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Since you are here. can you please tell us what your VCA assuming mohab is Scum revealed to you? I want to know why you voted ydrasse over the two leading wagons at the time.

I was testing Fredrick Ydrasse Snowblaze.

If Fredrick really wanted Y dead, he'd be happy with my vote. Instead, he chainsaws it. Fredrick was just trying to dismantle the snow wagon with a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA.

The part about me trying to dismantle the snow wagon was accurate. The part about me placing a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA, that is thinking too highly of my abilities.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The part about me trying to dismantle the snow wagon was accurate. The part about me placing a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA, that is thinking too highly of my abilities.

Let's talk about the first part then. Why are you so sure Snow is Town?

I'm not.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Since you are here. can you please tell us what your VCA assuming mohab is Scum revealed to you? I want to know why you voted ydrasse over the two leading wagons at the time.

I was testing Fredrick Ydrasse Snowblaze.

If Fredrick really wanted Y dead, he'd be happy with my vote. Instead, he chainsaws it. Fredrick was just trying to dismantle the snow wagon with a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA.

The part about me trying to dismantle the snow wagon was accurate. The part about me placing a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA, that is thinking too highly of my abilities.

If you were trying to dismantle the snow wagon onto someone you actually thought was scum, there's no town reason to attack me for giving you exactly what you wanted.

That assumes I considered all possibilities and made the best move.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Since you are here. can you please tell us what your VCA assuming mohab is Scum revealed to you? I want to know why you voted ydrasse over the two leading wagons at the time.

I was testing Fredrick Ydrasse Snowblaze.

If Fredrick really wanted Y dead, he'd be happy with my vote. Instead, he chainsaws it. Fredrick was just trying to dismantle the snow wagon with a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA.

The part about me trying to dismantle the snow wagon was accurate. The part about me placing a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA, that is thinking too highly of my abilities.

If you were trying to dismantle the snow wagon onto someone you actually thought was scum, there's no town reason to attack me for giving you exactly what you wanted.

That assumes I considered all possibilities and made the best move.

Yes. That's a generally true assumption. This is why my VCA takes awhile and ideally a scumflip.

You sure about that? In this specific circumstance, I know I didn't.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Since you are here. can you please tell us what your VCA assuming mohab is Scum revealed to you? I want to know why you voted ydrasse over the two leading wagons at the time.

I was testing Fredrick Ydrasse Snowblaze.

If Fredrick really wanted Y dead, he'd be happy with my vote. Instead, he chainsaws it. Fredrick was just trying to dismantle the snow wagon with a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA.

The part about me trying to dismantle the snow wagon was accurate. The part about me placing a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA, that is thinking too highly of my abilities.

If you were trying to dismantle the snow wagon onto someone you actually thought was scum, there's no town reason to attack me for giving you exactly what you wanted.

That assumes I considered all possibilities and made the best move.

Yes. That's a generally true assumption. This is why my VCA takes awhile and ideally a scumflip.

You sure about that? In this specific circumstance, I know I didn't.

Also, I notice you said ideally a scumflip. Doesn't this suggest you are wrong most of the time?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Since you are here. can you please tell us what your VCA assuming mohab is Scum revealed to you? I want to know why you voted ydrasse over the two leading wagons at the time.

I was testing Fredrick Ydrasse Snowblaze.

If Fredrick really wanted Y dead, he'd be happy with my vote. Instead, he chainsaws it. Fredrick was just trying to dismantle the snow wagon with a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA.

The part about me trying to dismantle the snow wagon was accurate. The part about me placing a throwaway vote on scum to foil VCA, that is thinking too highly of my abilities.

If you were trying to dismantle the snow wagon onto someone you actually thought was scum, there's no town reason to attack me for giving you exactly what you wanted.

That assumes I considered all possibilities and made the best move.

Yes. That's a generally true assumption. This is why my VCA takes awhile and ideally a scumflip.

You sure about that? In this specific circumstance, I know I didn't.

We aren't debating VCA theory. Why dismantle the snow wagon if you're not sure he's town or not?

I just decided to do it. I didn't know what would happen at that point.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I just decided to do it. I didn't know what would happen at that point.

I suggest you now join it instead. If Titus is right then we have a scumflip AND 5 Townies confirmed. If she is wrong then she will reconsider and you are not scum "with snow" is proven. I don't see how you could lose here.

Fair point.

VOTE: Snowblaze

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I don't believe in slips.

Townslips definitely exist, whether or not you believe in them.

To ensure the point gets across, if I don't believe in gravity, I can't float around and throw things around as though gravity doesn't exist.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Declaration of Intention to Hammer Maemuki

by Fredrick A Campbell

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Fred, if you steal my hammer I'll cry. (Which I realize might not dissuade you)

Go ahead, then.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm rereading right now. You still prefer Snowblaze, right? You just might get your wish if you wait for me to do this. (No promises, I'm just going to do my due diligence before hammering and maybe I'll change my mind)

I actually prefer neither.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Who do you prefer then?

Just a few hours ago, I was thinking of Eevee, but now, my scumread on Eevee has waned.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Mae is at E-1 just so everyone knows
Snow is E-2

Raya in there with the VC misinformation again I see

The tone of this is yuck.

I would like to add that the VC information was not misinformation.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Mae is at E-1 just so everyone knows
Snow is E-2

Raya in there with the VC misinformation again I see

The tone of this is yuck.

I would like to add that the VC information was not misinformation.

After double-checking, I found that both of them were actually at E-1 and it actually was misinformation, so my point is now null.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Mae is at E-1 just so everyone knows
Snow is E-2

Raya in there with the VC misinformation again I see

The tone of this is yuck.

I don't quite get what you meant about the tone now that I've seen that it was misinformation.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...okay. I’m alive. Now please let this flip scum so I don’t have to go through this all over again tomorrow.

Any plans for what you will do after the flip?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

it's alright umlaut, i knew i was one of the main wagons when i replaced in, it's not like this is a surprise.

that said by the nature of this setup I don't think it's productive for anyone to reveal their townreads but i can see why people might disagree.

frederick, if you wanted to hammer me and i'm at e-1 why haven't you done so already?

Yeah, I could do a full reread of Snowblaze here but this ultimately isn't about Snowblaze-is-town but about Mohabmuki-is-scum for me. The kicker is her wanting to "keep [her townreads] close to [her] chest" (as Raya pointed out) while freely giving her analysis of

her predecessor

as if that's a meaningful use of her time when she's likely out of the game any minute. Coming in, doing a 2-hour catchup, and then just saying "My counterwagon is scum and I'm voting her" with no other reads offered, is not what town does here.

(Ironically I might have townread her coming in and just saying "I'm survival-voting Snowblaze because I'm town" but instead she had to try and offer some semblance of reasoning)

Sorry you replaced in just to get roped, Mae, but it is what it is.


VOTE: Maemuki

[Fredrick A Campbell]

i'm uh bad at counting

in my defense it's 6am

Unless you're in any other time zone on the globe, than it's 12AM, 1AM, 2AM, ..., 10AM, 11AM, 12PM, 1PM, 2PM, ..., 10PM, 11PM, and 12PM, all at the same time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...okay. I’m alive. Now please let this flip scum so I don’t have to go through this all over again tomorrow.

Any plans for what you will do after the flip?

Depends whether it’s town or scum.

How will they differ?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Mainly in my life expectancy. But... either way I’ll re-read the thread, try and get my head straight, come up with some slightly more confident reads. Just if she flips town I’ll be doing all of that in the knowledge that I’m as good as dead.

Why not start now, since the flip isn't going to affect your actions?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Because I don't know what the flip is going to be and basically every reason I could come up with would depend on it. Also because it's too early in the morning for serious analysis.

How about taking note of potential things that may be suspicious and then check if the flip disproves your theories?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Although there is one thing I want to note: A50's reasoning for getting Fredrick to vote me is just... "if she's town, that means Titus will have to reconsider whether you're scum". Which... no. That is not a reason you should ever be voting for anyone if you're town.

(Also I want a pagetop. Pagetops are nice.)

If one does not have a strong scumread, why not?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

...because town aren't trying to clear themselves or be townread, town are trying to eliminate scum.

But I didn't have a strong scumread on anyone. Would not voting for you help me eliminate scum?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

From my PoV, yes. Also the declaration of intent to hammer implies you think Maemuki is more likely to be scum than me.

You're right that I thought Maemuki is more likely to be scum than you when I declared my intent to hammer Maemuki. However, when I placed my vote on you, I didn't have any scumreads.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: RCEnigma

[Fredrick A Campbell]

<Raya>
<Ydrasse, S_S>
<RCE>
<Montosh, Menalque, A50>

is where I'm at, pending a read of the games Menalque linked. Also want to point out, it's good if we get the unconfirmed to provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us. Yes? Yes?

~Eva

I am also believe that "it's good if we get the unconfirmed provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us."

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: I also believe that "it's good if we get the unconfirmed to provide reads/make pushes, but let the final decision go with us."

[Fredrick A Campbell]

To make the confirmed's job easier, I ask all the unconfirmed town give us a reason to townread them and all the unconfirmed scum give us a reason to scumread them.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm currently townreading RCEnigma for [urr=viewtopic.php?f=51&t=83553&start=327]attempting to figure out my alignment[/url] and not being too concerned about being executed. If further elaboration is wanting, you could ask for it.

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that Menalque appears to be extremely concerned about being executed so...

VOTE: Menalque

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: I'm currently townreading RCEnigma for attempting to figure out my alignment and not being too concerned about being executed. If further elaboration is wanting, you could ask for it.

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that Menalque appears to be extremely concerned about being executed so...

VOTE: Menalque

[Fredrick A Campbell]

There’s a lot of benefit to the unconfirmed giving reads/making pushes btw, it’s not just me wanting to be lazy. If we do all the solving, scum don’t have to give content and content is always good. Also I think their stances today are especially important.

~Eva

Again, I agree with this.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Meanwhile, I'm starting to think that Menalque appears to be extremely concerned about being executed so...

So, two things.

(1) what about my repeated points that I’m not going to fight a mis-guillotine on me today makes you think I’m extremely concerned about being executed?

And (2) why would town!me just take a blade to the neck lying down when I know that the game ends today if we guillo scum?

(1) It was post 1038. However, that was actually a rather weak scumread of you.

(2) No reason for you to do so.

VOTE: Something_Smart

Almost50, I would like to know what you think of RCEnigma.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

What was the logic for RCE not being scum again based on his opening posts?

From what I've read, there is no good reason for RCEnigma to have shared anything in public. To me, it is non-alignment indicative because RCEnigma may have simply forgotten that they had daychat as scum and didn't think of the best method to ask the question. Meanwhile, if he were town, he may have done exactly what he did. Since both alignments predict the same observations, it is non-alignment indicative.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I remember there being some discussion about a possible townslip early game but I couldn't find it. Do you remember if that's what it was?

I think it starts with me saying that the mafia doesn't have daytalk here.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Menalque

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Like, are you or are you NOT fighting your elimination? (You obviously aren't), so the second paragraph reads as "I am not town" to me (except; why would SCUM!you not fight it either??)

I’m not fighting it; I’m opposing it

There’s a difference albeit a small one. I object to being guillotined today and would like to make it clear that I’m town if possible to maximise the odds of winning the game. I’m not persuaded really by the “he’d be an awful slot to have in lylo” argument.

However, I’m willing to acknowledge that yes, I look pretty terrible after yesterday, and so if the conftown decide that it’s better I die today/are unable to get to TRs on me then I won’t be doing everything in my power to resist it, I’ll just be trying to provide them with guidance on where I think they ought to look tomorrow

By the way, I appreciate the nuance in the difference between fighting and opposing as you are using it.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

A50 — i just can’t fuckin read the monkey. Can’t do it, have tried to do it, my magic “reading people” 8-ball keeps coming up with “scumfuck” regardless. So idk, I’ll vote there if that’s what town wants, but I really can’t give a decent or non-biased read here and so don’t think it’s that helpful for me to be engaging with or around him

Blame my VCA and that you're working with me to sort which of A50 and Ydrasse are scum.

That is assuming one of them is scum.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Also, we would have had to have made two mislynches for us to find out that they are both town. We would have one last mislynch at that point so this is a very important thing to consider.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

What's the fall back for both being town?

I don't have a fallback plan for the scenario that I am wrong on both. I just find it extremely unlikely. I do have other suspects if we don't sort A50 and Ydrasse. It's just my preference.

Fair enough.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

In my opinion, we should just execute the scummiest player regardless of which wagon they were on.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

whereas... he's given that one townread on RCE and... nothing else...

FGS, there are already FIVE CONFIRMED townies. What do you want more? Like, of the remaining slots I know I am town and I am telling you RCE is town too, and if you cared to read my posts for comprehension you'd realize I said the ONLY THING I have against Raya is my knowledge of her ability to appear town as scum (which implies I TR her too). That leaves me with 4 players and 3 chances to eliminate one scum out of them.

This sounds as though you can confirm townies.

VOTE: Almost50

[Fredrick A Campbell]

In my opinion, we should just execute the scummiest player regardless of which wagon they were on.

Yes but also no but also why are you scumreading me.

It was mainly that Menalque had a point, you didn't contribute much doing day 1.

Now, tell me why we shouldn't "just execute the scummiest player regardless of which wagon they were on?"

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Okay, so basically, I think my general working theory on dumbtells (more likely to be from town than scum) is correct. Especially people who are just oblivious about the setup are likely to be town, especially in complicated games. Yes, scum sometimes fake this, and I’ve been known to like a dumbtell when I’m scum too tbh, but mostly it is town indicative

So I think what happened here was that I got it into my head that the dumbtell was more town!indicative than I should have given how egregious it was. Which meant that I read the following (the opposition to the wagon I wanted) as indicative that I was right that mohab was town and that she was being counterwagoned against the scum I was pushing. And like as it proceeded, it was sort of like a vicious circle. So the slots pushing for mohab were scummy because they were pushing away from snow to try and get her. And why was snow scum? Because I was town and I was pushing her, and because scum were ocunterwagoning on mohab. Why were the scum counterwagoning mohab — to save snow!scum ofc!

Yes, I’m aware that it’s bad logic of a circular variety but that’s why I think I got so locked in. The more resistance I got to what I was pursuing, the more I thought I was right to pursue it, even despite not townreading mohab

Does that make sense? I feel like it’s not the best explained thing but idk if I can be bothered to edit for clarity rn, I might tomorrow if it is really confusing

As someone who has believed conspiracy theories at some point in their life for a few years, I can relate to this.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I actually agree with Almost50's assessment that RCEnigma is town. Maybe not for the same reasons, because I reached that conclusion independent of Almost50's assessment.

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The swap thing is silly. All doors have equal probability once one of the doors is shown to have a goat. All the problem shows is if the thinker has rigid thinking or if they are open to changing their mind. Arguably it doesn't show that if you truly understand basic probability. I detest that problem because people think they are smarter than they are if they agree with the leading question the asker wants.

Probability of choosing door with goat behind: 2/3
Probability of choosing door with new car behind: 1/3

Game show host opens a door with a goat behind, leaving two doors, one with a goat behind it and another with a new car behind it. You would still have chosen the door with a goat behind it 2/3 of the time and the door with the new car behind it 1/3 of the time, assuming that you are equally likely to choose any one of the doors. Therefore, if you decide to switch your options, you would get a car 2/3 of the time and a goat 1/3 of the time.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I am weirdly scumreading Ydrasse, but I don't want to be distracted if it is just A50. May have to reread A50's ISO or something.

@Fredrick, why do you think it's Ydrasse? Titus' VCA?

~Eva

Yeah.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Almost50

L-2

Other than Almost50, I have reason to townread all on the Snowblaze wagon.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Frederick continuing his legacy of terrible takes.

I'm townreading Menalque for his attempt to point out the flaws in my logic instead of weaponising it in post 434. I see post 435 as it seems like a well thought out attempt to figure out my alignment.

I'm townreading RCEnigma for attempting to figure out my alignment in post 327 and suggesting that Menalque could have voted Mohab500 in post 418.

I'm townreading Montosh for his former version's suggestion to intentionally execute townies to win the game in post 14

Alright, if this is a bad take, I would like to know why so I can see the error in my ways.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

A50, if it’s not you, and it’s not me, and you think RCE is cleared for you — do you think it’s montosh or do you think scum would both be off the snow wagon? I don’t think scum can both be off the snow wagon when it was getting resisted so hard, right? Like I don’t think I’m that persuasive that I convinced 5 townies to nearly vote town while scum were busy actively trying to bus their partner?

Maybe we should consider that that was what happened.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: Maybe we should consider that that might be what happened.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

and I think the resistance to that from the unconfirmed is telling

This is a very misguided take. For one thing; assuming both scum were on Snow means 3 of the "unconfirmed" were on mae (you being one of them), and they wouldn't be opposed to eliminating from the Snow wagon. and if there's Scum between them

they still wouldn't be opposed to it

.
For another thing: EVEN if both scum were on Snow, there were still two TOWNIES who were on Snow too (and are not confirmed), and they obviously still would rather not be the elimination target if they could help it, so it's not exactly "telling" either.

In fact; this is probably why I'm finding it hard to identify scum with confidence. It seems to me that almost everything going on now is a natural reaction to being pushed and is totally NAI because it would come from that player regardless of their true alignment. I thus suggest we go back to D1 and use it primarily over D2 for scum hunting.

This is a very good suggestion.

I would be so much more comfortable if it wasn’t primarily unconfirmeds on the mae wagon saying that

This is a very good point.

VOTE: Something_Smart

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Almost50, why is Ydrasse included in your elimination (or, as I like to call it, execution) pool?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

In explanation:

I know I’m town. I do still err towards thinking that there was at least one scum backing my push.

RCE is probably town even though he reads super scummy, because of the way mohab talked about him and voted for him? Like she didn’t just say “I wouldn’t be surprised if he flipped scum” and then avoided it (covering for if he did get run up) she actually voted there — i.e. she was happy with a misguillo there?

A50 is probably slightly +town if RCE is town fr defending him although still a big idk there.

Leaves montosh who I also just don’t really townread at all

I feel like scum!menalque wouldn't say we should hunt in the snow wagon but then say that 2/3 besides himself are town?

Good observation.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

There is nothing to be concluded from it.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So, I uh, realised that my math was wrong because of the scum escape if there’s no scum guillo for two consecutive days.

So in worlds where I’m guillotined today: EV tomorrow is at 40% but then it declines to 33% the day after.

If I’m not guillotined today or tomorrow, then EV today is 40%, tomorrow is 50%, and in gylo it would be 33% anyway. Admittedly there the paranoia creeps in and means it’s lower than that, but I think on balance the extra chance is worth it, in addition to the 50% EV tomorrow if I’m not guillotined then either.

I would like to talk more with eevee.

Can people explain the TRs on montosh? I don’t see it.

Scum starts to escape from Day 3 in the night.

If my interpretation of what was in the "

SETUP

" spoiler is correct, scum starts to escape on Night 3.

@Mod:

Is the following statement about the setup true: Scum starts to escape on Night 3.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

If the moderator confirms the statement as true, scum will start to escape whether or not there is a "scum guillo for two consecutive days."

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I mean if there's a scum execution at any point in the future we just win.

Thanks for the reminder. However, I was trying to point out that the EV is still inaccurate assuming Menalque used those assumptions to calculate it.

Postscript: What is an EV?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EV is expected value, or the odds of town winning with random decisions.

Why is his math still wrong? He initially forgot that the scum escape happened at all.

Apparently it isn't wrong despite his phrasing about the scum escape.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Montosh

All the unconfirmed on the Snowblaze wagon have reason to be townread except for Montosh.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

or given reasons for Mohab!town

I very literally did

I must've missed them. Actually. I will be first to admit I have a bias against Mohab. I kinda view her as another "Saudade" meaning I expect her to replace out from every game she play in at any given time, so maybe I didn't pay enough attention to her content? (I also have a bias against people not reading the setup, so that's a double bias against Mohab that I have to deal with)

This is just a little observation of Almost50's attitude towards Mohab500. Is claiming to have a double bias on Mohab500 an attempt to distance from Mohab500 or am I reading too much into this?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Ydrasse

2 Votes to Execution.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Montosh

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why is it so hard to lynch on the Snow wagon?

VOTE: Montosh
Maybe this is more doable than A50. His latest posts are pinging me.

VOTE: Montosh

Yeah, but... why?

For the same reason as Maemuki when she replaced into Mohab500's slot.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why is it so hard to lynch on the Snow wagon?

VOTE: Montosh
Maybe this is more doable than A50. His latest posts are pinging me.

VOTE: Montosh

Yeah, but... why?

For the same reason as Maemuki when she replaced into Mohab500's slot.

Which is....?

Attempting to cause suspicion to fall on one specific player.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

So... having a scumread?

No. If you have a scumread, suspicion doesn't just fall on a player as a result.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

OK.. I think I need to intervene here: I am solidly against the RCE wagon. He is one of my 2 confident TRs. (Sorry, mate.. but keeping my TRs to myself is going to get you lynched.)

This is a mountainous (well, the "escape" mechanic is different, but it still is a Powerless setup, so let's call it an "altered mountainous)

People play differently when they know there are no PRs and I scum/town hunt accordingly too. (Like you can't accuse someone of "TPR hunting" in a mountainous. Right?)

Anyway, RCE was the one who called for your top TRs to NOT be outed. His attempt to protect global TRs by not announcing them to scum is Town indicative of the mindset he's playing the game under. It is minor things like this that I am mainly looking for on this format (rather than -say- looking for a crumb that may or may not be true)

Currently, I am having a townread on Almost50 for this post as it seems like a well thought out reason to townread someone. If anyone disagrees, please explain why you disagree.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

No. If you have a scumread, suspicion doesn't just fall on a player as a result.

Then I don't understand what the difference is. If you scumread a player, you want suspicion to fall on them, no? What is the town way of handling that situation that you think is different?

One is a consequence of the other. A consequence of rain is flooding. Rain is not flooding. However, if I see flooding, it doesn't have to come from rain. A dam might have collapsed, causing a flood. A tsunami may have occurred causing a flood.

Right now, I observe that Montosh is attempting to place suspicion on a player. Why? Because he has a scumread on them is not the only possible reason. It could be for some other reason and I would insert examples here but I don't want to give Montosh answers he could use from these examples.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Menalque

[Fredrick A Campbell]

this why i think it's just Menalque:

• hard pushed snow day 1
  
• defended Mohab as oblivious town
  
• started a Titus counterwagon against Mohab
  
• is pushing the narrative that there were 1 or 2 bussers on Maemuki

VOTE: Menalque

~Eve

Menalque's vote on Titus was the third. Mine was the first.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Something_Smart

I hypothesize that Something_Smart is in the mafia with Montosh.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

What was scummy about my play?

VOTE: Something_Smart

I hypothesize that Something_Smart is in the mafia with Montosh.

Can we get a wagon here? That would be a wagon I'd actually be happy with. Already two votes. 2 days left to make it happen

Why? Just because you're "starting to like the idea of 1 scum on each wagon"?

From the start I thought if there was someone on each wagon it would be you.

Something_Smart was also on the Mae wagon. I don't like him that much mainly because there's basically just empty questions and NAI statements up until his posts in the 600s. His vote onto the snowblaze wagon honestly felt like just not caring or being invested in the game and voting whoever he was asked to. That was actually the first time he had placed a vote. He unvotes Snow and then states that he's not against Mohab dying but doesn't want to kill an empty slot. So it's non-committal. Overall I do think S_S is more likely uncaring town than scum although if there is scum on the Mohab wagon it would be him.

I sorted you as uncaring town rather than scum but I'm starting to think otherwise. That read was influenced by me believing that both scum were on the snow wagon. Now I'm not as attached to that idea so I believe that there's a good chance of you being scum.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I've been rereading and have come back empty-handed.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Almost50

[Fredrick A Campbell]

That's three votes on the Almost50 wagon. (Ydrasse (1573), Umlaut (1590), and Fredrick A Campbell (1591))

[Fredrick A Campbell]

it's me getting down on one knee and offering you a ring pop if you vote a50.

Actually, you currently only have 3 votes on you because Umlaut and Eevee switched their votes from you to Almost50.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Ngl while the “let the unconfirmed make pushes” was and is a reasonable posture to take, the lack of conftown throughout the majority of this day is annoying

For instance, the fact that I’m not sure a single conftown has voiced a take on whether scum were more likely to bus or to be supporting the snow wagon, let alone had a conversation with me about it

So I’m here like “oh, convenient that most of the mae wagon thinks scum would have done one on one off or supported snow, but the snow wagon as far as I can tell think that a bus is very plausible”

Actually now I think about it it makes more sense, as the town on either side would expect scum to have done the opposite thing to what they did? Maybe idk. We probably should have ended this day like 5 days ago

In my opinion, both are likely and should be considered.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Why do you prefer the A50 wagon to the ydrasse wagon?

I don't know the answer to this question myself.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Looking back at when the Snowblaze wagon first started, HoldenGolden, who has been replaced by Montosh, made a case against Snowblaze. I piled my vote on. Snowblaze now has two votes on her. Next, Menalque places a vote on Snowblaze and Eevee places the fourth vote on Snowblaze before switching to RCEnigma. Ydrasse comes along and places another vote on Snowblaze. Snowblaze, with four votes, was at L-3. Is it possible the scum-team is Menalque, Ydrasse and Mohab500 (replaced by Maemuki)?

Looking back on the votecount, RCEnigma and HoldenGolden (replaced by Montosh) were tied with three votes. Mohab500, whom we now know to be scum, placed her vote on RCEnigma. Is Montosh scum with Maemuki instead? Ydrasse placed her vote on Raya36. The vote count at this point would have been:

RCEnigma (4) - Eevee (292), Snowblaze (415), Menalque (433), Mohab500 (502)
HoldenGolden (3) - Umlaut (402), Raya36 (495), Fredrick A Campbell (498)
Raya36 (2) - RCEnigma (497), Ydrasse (506)
Menalque (1) - HoldenGolden (129)

This is the vote composition right before HoldenGolden (replaced by Montosh) places his first vote on Snowblaze, in the first paragraph of this post. I just thought the vote composition right before the Snowblaze wagon occurred may be useful to figure alignments from the first paragraph I wrote.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

It implies that the snow wagon was created to deflect from Mohab and set me up as the TvS counterwagon to snow that ultimately eliminated town.

This would have been discussed in the PT if this was the plan scum where going for but Montosh came in with a light scumread on me that shifted throughout his read up.

Had the wagon on Mohab500 even started at this point?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Montosh

[Fredrick A Campbell]

It hadn't, so it wouldn't be to deflect from Mohab it would be to deflect from holden(Montosh) I think the pairing I said that makes sense was Montosh + ydrasse but TBH ydrasse and Montosh mutually townreading each other makes reading back.

The chain of events from ydrasse' vote on Raya going forward are:
-Ydrasse disapproves of both leading wagons (mine & Holden's) and light defends holden
- Montosh comes to a general town!ydrasse conclusion in initial catch up
-engages briefly with ydrasse like they were a townread
-ydrasse reciprocates D2
-Montosh avoids ydrasse wagon D2 in favor of menalque even when the wagon popularity decreases.

Those all feel pretty natural and ydrasse comes out of it looking townier to me than Montosh but I'd buy both of them as town. Montosh could be scum independent of ydrasse and isoing them both side by side brought up some questions about Montosh's read on SS in the context of how he's engaged with Ydrasse as town but not with SS in any meaningful way but has SS higher in his most recent readslist.

Also forgot to add that this is all in the context of the transition away from my wagon day 1 at it's height with at least 1 confirmed scum already on board.

Frederick I'm directing this mostly at you but I guess it's to everyone. The optimal play for scum is to elim town day 1 agreed? Fmpov my wagon is on town and spearheaded by two now confirmed townies with conf scum trailing. If Holden is scum and being counterwagoned what is the risk/reward for joining Mohab on my wagon that town is already pushing for?

A50 was the only person to advocate for me at the time. I'm finding it hard to believe scum!A50 would derail a town on town wagon without another avenue to push at the time. I don't think town!A50 is an impenetrable roadblock for scum at that point either.

Yes, the optimal play for scum is to eliminate scum day 1. However, I think that whatever is optimal is not necessarily what was done.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

It appears that RCEnigma has forgotten we don't know if attention was diverted from two competing town wagons.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: RCE

Why?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

It appears that RCEnigma has forgotten we don't know if attention was diverted from two competing town wagons.

Holden/my wagon is what I'm referring to and I highlighted you had to make a judgement call on my alignment to get to where my headspace is regarding ydrasse.

If ydrasse is scum what was she doing wagoning Raya with me over joining either town wagon. What was A50 doing hard defending me and townreading Holden as the competing wagon?

Scum play bad all the time is such a cop out answer to excuse bias.

From what I've observed, Ydrasse has shown herself to be oblivious to how many votes are on a wagon, so, she could have very likely not noticed the Snowblaze wagon since there was no votecount throughout all of what I have described. I don't have the time to think this through right now, though, as my dad is calling me to dinner.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

It appears that RCEnigma has forgotten we don't know if attention was diverted from two competing town wagons.

Holden/my wagon is what I'm referring to and I highlighted you had to make a judgement call on my alignment to get to where my headspace is regarding ydrasse.

If ydrasse is scum what was she doing wagoning Raya with me over joining either town wagon. What was A50 doing hard defending me and townreading Holden as the competing wagon?

Scum play bad all the time is such a cop out answer to excuse bias.

From what I've observed, Ydrasse has shown herself to be oblivious to how many votes are on a wagon, so, she could have very likely not noticed the Snowblaze wagon since there was no votecount throughout all of what I have described. I don't have the time to think this through right now, though, as my dad is calling me to dinner.

There was no Snowblaze wagon at this point. I led with 4 votes to 3 on Holden. Ydrasse voted Raya with me at that point.

Ydrassee may have just been imitating what I was doing at that point. That's the end of the answer to your question. The following are more observations.

Ydrasse decided to vote for Snowblaze later on. Keep in mind that right before the vote switch, the votes were:

RCEnigma (4) -Snowblaze (415), Menalque (433), Mohab500 (502), Eevee (533)
Snowblaze (3) - HoldenGolden (511), Fredrick A Campbell (522), Menalque (532)
Raya36 (2) - RCEnigma (497), Ydrasse (552)
HoldenGolden (1) - Raya36 (495)

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: RCE

Why?

I think he didn’t play D2 because it would give him enough cred to try and come for my today. If he’s committed to me being scum, he should have been on me hard yesterday, not just passively sitting there

But I had a very townie D2 and that made it difficult. Given that I was wrong again D2, he thinks he can win the 1v1 today (or just generally get me flipped easily if I don’t go after him)

RCEnigma I townread for attempting to solve the game.

Raya36 I currently conclude is town too because he admitted to a mistake in his reasoning.

Menalque I have both sentiments on.

If any of these are horrible reasons to townread someone, feel free to tell me so. If they are good reasons, I would also like to know.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

A gambit that may have cost them the game.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Still doesn't mean it wasn't done, however.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm still debating the idea that the whole vote on A50 thing then make a last minute case on montosh was a gambit. I mean if A50 and Menalque are scum together that was probably the best move for distancing and also a final last scramble to get the elimination on someone else

A gambit that may have cost them the game.

But the wagon on A50 was already building up. Menalque not voting A50 likely wouldn't stop it

I somehow misunderstood that post. Forgive me.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

No worries, do you agree that it's possible A50 and Menalque could be a team? That whole wagon redirect from A50 to town by Menalque was too bad for me to ignore and reads exactly as desperate scum to me.

I do. Didn't reach that conclusion independently, however.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I propose we execute Menalque far before the deadline since nobody seems to be interested in doing anything else. Should anyone agree, I will place my vote. That is, if I am online.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm here.

I still feel like Menalque is probably town and well if he isn't either he flees and we get a shitton of info or he stays and we have another chance to kill him.

VOTE: Ydrasse

How are we supposed to differentiate between the situations where he is town and isn't the escapee and the situation where he isn't town and isn't the escapee?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Menalque

[Fredrick A Campbell]

You keep mentioning this doublebuss theory but still pushed on the snow wagon. So idk why you have been bringing it up.

Err, yeah, because I thought/think (honestly I’m not sure anymore, it seemed sound at the time though) that doublebussing is more likely than no bussing. But probably the most likely is one bussing and one not. And given that and that I was pushing what I still think was a p good case, I think it makes total sense that I pushed on the snow wagon, and I don’t think that’s in contradiction with the fact that I think that both (1) the most likely is that scum were 1 on 1 off and (2) if both scum did the same wagon it’s more likely they bussed than that both tried to save

I think because of varying playstyles, they are all equally probable.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have nothing else to add.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Accidental alt slip.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Let me see:

RCEnigma has yet to grace us with his presence.
Ydrasse has not said who she thinks the last mafioso is.
Raya36 thinks the last mafioso is Ydrasse.
Almost50 thinks the last mafioso is Ydrasse.
Umlaut has yet to grace us with his presence.
Eevee has one player whom they think is the mafioso but does not want to influence other players' conclusions on who it is or place the player on guard.
Snowblaze has yet to conclude who it is.
I have one player whom I think the last mafioso is but just like Eevee, I am not going to reveal it yet. I will only reveal it once all the players has an opinion on the matter.

Should I have misunderstood any player's positions in this post, please make a post clarifying your position. I'll be monitoring this thread for responses.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

EBWOP: I will only reveal it once all the players

have

an opinion on the matter.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I absolutely did not expect this game to last this long and am also involved in another game. Give me some time to read this game before I comment on anything. I'll make a little post saying that I have no comment if I don't have any comments after reading through everything.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Umlaut is aligned with the

Town

.

Fredrick A Campbell is aligned with the

Town

.

Eevee is aligned with the

Town

.

Snowblaze is aligned with the

Town

.

Titus is aligned with the

Town

.

Day 2 begins.

Rce/a50/ydra/Raya PoE right?

That's right. Hope you have a few tricks up your sleeve to help us crack the "Mystery of who Killed Titus for the Anuket Topaz".

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Thank you, but I don't eat gum.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I believe the fact that I have not thought of any of those questions just shows how bad I am at this game.

I will think it through so that I can give you a well thought out answer. Don't have time to do that right now, but you could expect it in 24 hours.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have some gum

Liar. Duck don't have teeth, so they don't have gums.

Hey if you zoom in real close on duck bills there's like these little bumps that look like teeth. That's basically the same thing right?

Still not convinced. Do you happen to know any duck dentists? Ever met a duck toothfairy?

Do you happen to know any lion dentists? Ever met a lion toothfairy?

Lions don't have teeth.

Do you happen to know any crocodile dentists? Ever met a crocodile toothfairy?

Crocodiles don't have teeth.

Personally, not convincing.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

okay i am just going to quote a ton of these at once sorry if it gets messy.

also, what motivation do i have in that quote to townread s_s? like, how does that pan out in the exact scumteam where it is me and s_s; it'd be super weird for me to either a) townread my partner and escape during the night leaving that last minute change of opinion on him or b) townread my partner who is escaping during the night, begging the question of why i wouldn't just stick to my guns about "oh i think s_s is probably the scum on the mae wagon out of him and raya". it just puts way too much attention on either of us in that situation.

You weren't even supporting the theory of scum bussing. You wanted to eliminate off the Snow wagon all the way.

On fact, the only time you voted S_S on 1413 and it lasted for 8 full hours (what's with you and the 8 hours time frames?)

i wasn't, no. it didn't make sense to me frankly and felt too risky.

(i show up when the mood strikes me and when i have the time. eight hours apparently keep me sustained.)

and yes i voted s_s at some point to switch it but as i said in that post it was a safety thing that fit into my perception of how the scum were probably playing; it was not my preferred vote by the end of things though, but something i was Okay with. not my favorite but i wasn't balking at the idea of it. my vote changed to someone i thought could also be scum when asked.

doubly so given that the person who was killed was the person who was most adamant about me being scum. fmpov it's just a way to put more attention on me today and hope that there can be a miselim pushed through off of it so that the last scum can escape tonight. you can think that it's wifom and that i Would Do That As Scum but like, /shrug.

Of course I think it's WIFOM. Titus is the type of player that is stubborn about her VCA. You probably thought it would be easier to change everyone else's minds, and ESPECIALLY with S_S escaping, so "double bus isn't an option" would be your argument (and believe you me; some will buy into it still).

If I/RCE were scum the right move was for that person to escape last night, because we are heavily linked together. I know some will still think "they wouldn't have escaped if X was their partner" but: (a) It's the same kind of WIFOM you're using to say it ain't you, and (b) if it was me AND RCE we wouldn't have had a choice really. One of us would have had to escape, and the other would use that WIFOM from A to try and survive.

i mean, everyone seems to put a decent amount of weight into titus' vca so i doubt anyone's minds would change regarding her viewpoint on that. like, again this is fmpov but as scum her impact on me is there and it wouldn't matter if she was here or not to keep pushing it. everyone is going to go look at her being dead and remember what she posted about me, or she is going to be alive if i don't kill her as hypothetical scum and keep pushing. you can think that i would bother with it as scum or not because it's just speculation for you if you're town.

To me, the last paragraph seems like Ydrasse has thought of this scenario to present as WIFOM. Tell me, if Ydrasse were town, do you think she would care this much about how much Titus' vote count analysis is going to affect her?

To elaborate on (b): It is now a KNOWN FACT that the team is NOT A50/RCE. So, only ONE AT MAX of the pair can be scum. If they escape they open the door wide open for the other (the townie of them) to be mis-eliminated on the basis that "they had no choice, and one had to escape anyway".

this is also part of why my focus is off of you, because there just... isn't a world where i see you partnered with s_s after trying to start a push on him like you did. i could have believed you/mena or you/rce, but given that neither of those are the teams you just don't make sense to me anymore as being scum.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I believe the fact that I have not thought of any of those questions just shows how bad I am at this game.

I will think it through so that I can give you a well thought out answer. Don't have time to do that right now, but you could expect it in 24 hours.

I am still unable to come up with an answer to any of the questions. I will, however, note that Raya36 was one of the last to hop on the wagon while Ydrasse was the second last unconfirmed player to place her vote.

Another thing of note is that Something_Smart was not voting at the time of the hammer. Is it possible that the second partner was also off the wagon? This is a very weak suggestion since there is only an incidental observation and a conclusion from said observation. Should more observations suggest the same, I would present them. Should no observations suggest so, I would just go with whatever those observations suggest is the mafioso.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The good news is: I am home
The bad news is: I am beat and really need to sleep

I'll probably read back tomorrow, but right now I will do this:

VOTE: S_S

I am assuming AT LEAST one scum bus'd and one didn't. The 3 unconfirmed on Mae's wagon were Raya, Ydrasse & S_S. I think the scum of them likely fence-sat yesterday, in an attempt not to be caught on a miselimination. "I was on the scum wagon but not on the Town wagon" is a good defence from scum PoV. S_S is the one that fits the profile. Ydrasse & RTaya were both on me, and I was this close to being eliminated myself. If that had happened they'd have looked bad (almost as bad as Menalque does for many), so I conclude S_S is the one scum ON the Mae wagon, but I really can't decide whether the 2nd scum was also on the Mae wagon (Ydrasse) or the Snow wagon (Menalque). (My problem is Menalque has been promoting himself as a GOOD scum player, and I did witness his Scum game once and he was indeed good, so I am not sure if this is his bad town play or his attempt on being too scummy to be scum.)

Aside from that, S_S is play is reminding me of his play in the previous game (with me and Menalque) when he was Scum. He looks disengaged and rarely intervenes. He refused to bus in that game though, and that's what kept him off the bottom of my readlist here, but the thing is I can't see Raya+Ydrasse as a team that double bus'd and then decided to powerpush me on D2 too. In fract, I don't think this is Raya's scum game at all, so it's either S_S or Ydrasse (or both). Oh, and the reason I firmly believe at least one scum bus'd is the fact I know I'm Town and the confidence I have in my TR on RCE.

Disclaimer: Sleep on this for 24 hours if you will. I don't even know if what I've just typed reflects my thoughts accurately or not, because I am

falling asleep already

. Please do ask me for elaboration on whatever you think doesn't make sense or is unclear to you and I will respond when I come back next (in less than 12-16 hours ideally, but give it up to 24 hours at max)

Daily reminder that S_S is scum with ydrasse or Menalque and should be the elimination here.

What if I fakeclaimed a guilty on S_S? Would that help?? Hmmm.. guess not.

OK, I'll come clean. I'm a Jailkeeper, and I jailkept S_S twice. This is why scum have not been able to kill yet. (Yeah, THAT'll work)

But seriously, I dunno why everybody's being considered BUT S_S. I want someone to enlighten me, cuz he feels so much like he was in the previous game (with the exception of the bus vote as I said earlier)

How moved was everyone by A50 correctly scumcasing SS?
did he have enough clout that this was unlikely to be a bus?

Considering that we were approaching the dateline, Almost50 might have decided that no one was going to change their mind and execute Something_Smart instead of Menalque.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

someone w Raya meta please reassure me that her calm and very pleasant tonality is just a feature of her playstyle as either alignment

I wanna say yes.

@Umlaut, Fredrick, where're you two at? Fredrick, have you outted who your main suspect is?

~Eva

I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have. However, I am a lot less confident in my read as, in attempting to support it, I have found there is nothing to suggest my guess is even close to being right. To the contrary, there is plenty suggesting my guess is wrong, so my position now is that it is not Almost50.

\o\ mood /o/

What does that mean?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I feel the same as 2160 to a t.

Did you mean 2159?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm at post 2180. I'll stop reading this in 15 minutes and I project myself to reach post 2220.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I'm around for a bit, anything else for us to discuss?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I dunno what to say anymore, and nobody's even making a new argument.

VOTE: Ydrasse

From my PoV there are 4 unconfirmed players: I know I am town, and I hard TR RCE. As for Raya, the Titus NK doesn't make sense for Scum!her AT ALL.

Who are the 4 unconfirmed players?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Ydra Raya a50 rce

But from Almost50's point of view?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I have a new conclusion on who the last mafioso is. I'll keep it confidential for now.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I really liked that Ydrasse.

I have a new conclusion on who the last mafioso is. I'll keep it confidential for now.

Now would be a pretty good time to reveal it I think. We're in the last leg of the race and all the unconfirms more or less has given their stances.

~Eva

Considering how much time we have, you are right.

I currently think it is Raya36 by Process of Elimination.

I think RCEnigma is town because I agree with Ydrasse's post 2276.
I think Ydrasse is town because of her post 2276.
I think Almost50 is town because his push on Something_Smart doesn't make sense if he is scum unless he did something that doesn't make sense as scum knowing someone will pick up on it as scum.

That leaves Raya36.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

@Fredrick, can you read through my case/quotes and let me know what you think?

~Eva

Please give me some time to do so. I'll do it now.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Nope, I still think it is Raya36. It doesn't makes sense that a player as experienced as Something_Smart wouldn't have any interactions as their partner.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I will be voting RCEnigma or Raya36's execution.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I think the jury has reached a verdict, albeit only its plurality.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Almost50, how confident are you that you are right about RCEnigma's alignment?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

The only things that point to me are voting Snow day 1 and SS defending me as town after my wagon died out.

Do you have anything that points to you not being scum?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

Do you happen to have a strong suspicion on any player, RCEnigma?

[Fredrick A Campbell]

RCEnigma appears to have given up.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

I suggest that we do not rush to the finish line, lest we run in the wrong direction.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Almost50

Of all of the unconfirmed, this person has put in the least effort to figure out the last mafioso. I don't think I have seen a post from him in which he says who he thinks the mafioso is.

[Fredrick A Campbell]

VOTE: Almost50

Of all of the unconfirmed, this person has put in the least effort to figure out the last mafioso. I don't think I have seen a post from him in which he says who he thinks the mafioso is.

I strongly disagree with A50 being scum. I still think it's one of RCE or Ydrasse

Almost50 doesn't seem to even care about this game even though who we execute will determine the outcome of the game.