Open 785: Secrets of the Anuket Topaz [Game over!]

[Snowblaze]

Morning. Looks like I managed to miss the start again.

Reads so far:

Town leans on Eevee and Holden.

Not really a fan of Craig’s two naked votes and a scumclaim, but it looks almost too scummy to be scum.

Porkens’ calling someone out on lack of useful content on the first page is... odd, but not necessarily scummy. I’m not sure scum would be likely to draw attention to themselves that early on, and I feel like it could be more town trying to get the game out of RVS.

Speaking of getting out of RVS, Raya gets a few town points for that.

Not really sure where Umlaut’s getting his townlean on Chemist from, but the other reads do make sense.

Slight scumlean on Mohab, but not strong enough for a vote yet.

Null on everyone else so far.

[Snowblaze]

Slight scumlean on Mohab, but not strong enough for a vote yet.

Can you elaborate on this one?

Also: I like Pork, but he needs more seasoning (reads). Craig scares me...

p-edit: :c

A few of her posts seem a bit odd. In particular I’m not sure I like 45 - there was nothing wrong with Raya trying to get the game moving, and the point about Porkens seems kind of obvious.

[Snowblaze]

Idk if I can help clear anything up because ya know, wifom. My initial rvs vote on you was just for voting votato back. Not a big deal in rvs. But then when you supported porkens for voting votato as well and then invited others to join in the wagon I saw it as a good opportunity to call you out and get the game going


Slight townlean on snowblaze. I find scum tend not to open with a pile of reads.

I mean not really since it's over what you havent done.

I also disagree on snowblaze and actually

FoS

the readlist. I found most of the reads (pork, Ulmant, mohab, craig) non-committal or providing reasons to not fully trust in it (ulmant on chem for example). The only 3 committed reads there are a townlean on me and eevee and a town ping on you.

That's a good point

Snowblaze, do you think you could explain some of your reads?

I'm not really sure what more I can explain - that's about all I've got at the moment. It's less than 24 hours since the game started, I'm mostly going on instinct and vague impressions right now. (Plus I'm tired for some reason, so being lazy.)

[Snowblaze]

Good, that makes sense. Have some town points!

[Snowblaze]

On Porkens: I find it less likely that scum would accuse someone of not posting game-relevant stuff on the first page, just because it would draw a lot of unfavourable attention that scum wouldn’t want. Although now I look back through the ISO, there’s not much game-relevant stuff in there, which is kind of hypocritical.

I’ll need to have a better look through the replacement’s posts to work out my current read.

@Fredrick, why are you voting for me?

[Snowblaze]

Not strong ones. Just impressions to help me work out where I am.

[Snowblaze]

Struggling a bit to get properly into this game, but will try and fix that problem.

Question for everyone: if I’m town, what do you think scum is doing right now?

I’d say they’re most likely taking a stance and sticking to it, and I feel like they’d want to have different team members taking different positions. (I think I can understand why you scumread me now!)

[Snowblaze]

While I've got you, what made you vote Mohab?

It's just a random vote. But telling you that has made it useless now.

VOTE: Snowblaze

Snowblaze, why is it that you have not made a single vote this game?

Because I have yet to find scumreads I’m confident enough in to vote for them.

Why would you vote randomly outside RVS?

[Snowblaze]

Some of those were in RVS, and others I was more confident than I am now. And if you’ve been researching my meta, you’ll know that I also voted early in 1998 and 2005, in which I was scum.

[Snowblaze]

...you know, it would be a lot easier to read you if you explained things without being asked occasionally.

[Snowblaze]

Anyone think I’m strongly wrong in that grouping or?

I’m not townreading anyone else there, at any rate.

...you know, it would be a lot easier to read you if you explained things without being asked occasionally.

I don't really know what anyone wants me to explain.

In this case, the vote for someone you haven’t previously mentioned without giving reasoning.

[Snowblaze]

I’m starting to scumlean Fredrick a bit now. His play feels slightly different from the newbie game we played, and I don’t like how he voted for me based on meta without checking my scum games beforehand.

But he does have a point that I should probably be voting by now. VOTE: Fredrick A Campbell

[Snowblaze]

...

...you know, it would be a lot easier to read you if you explained things without being asked occasionally.

I don't really know what anyone wants me to explain.

In this case, the vote for someone you haven’t previously mentioned without giving reasoning.

Ydrasse has posted thrice in the span of over 72 hours since this game started.

And Sujimichi has posted once, yet you’re not voting for them. Why is that?

(Also, Umlaut is confirmed scum for offences against grammar.)

[Snowblaze]

*raises eyebrows* I read through the setup, and I didn't notice anything about mafia not having daytalk... scumslip? Or am I just blind?

@mod

do mafia have daytalk?

[Snowblaze]

UNVOTE: Fredrick A Campbell, since that remark apparently wasn't a scumslip. Not sure who to vote for next; I'm slightly concerned I may have too many townreads.

[Snowblaze]

@Ydrasse, I agree on the lack of actual scumreads from most players - that, more than the consensus townreads, is making me feel scum are lurking. Also, your vote is still on Menalque - do you scumread him now he’s explained his play? And if so, why?

@Fredrick, generally if you want people to vote for someone with you it’s wise to make yourself understood.

@RCEnigma, who do you think is most likely to be “scum agreeing and banking on a low info lurker lynch”?

Chemist gets slight townpoints for their only response to Fredrick’s accusations being “wat”, I feel like scum would be more likely to take accusations seriously.

I’m concerned by the number of townreads and leans I have now. Maybe I need to be more paranoid. Or maybe scum

are

just lurking, and I have so many townreads because all the players who are around and contributing are town.

[Snowblaze]

Let me guess... because Raya hasn't posted for a while?

[Snowblaze]

In other news, getting the game moving is definitely a cause I can get behind. Not sure about Holden specifically, though: he's been inactive in another game I'm playing with him, and the activity tracker does show he's V/LA, so in this case it's probably NAI. And I do seem to remember townleaning him off his earlier content.


I also have townreads or -leans to some extent on Umlaut, Fredrick, Eevee, Menalque and Chemist... that's not actually as many as I thought.

So, who do I vote for?

Sujimichi has precisely one post with no AI content at all
Mohab500 also has relatively little AI content, which is slightly more concerning given her higher post count. I'm okay with her reads post, although none of it is exactly controversial.

RCEnigma does actually have some useful content, which is nice. I'm not getting a townread from any of it, though, and I am curious: if you're trusting Eevee's townlean on Homura, why do you not feel the same way about their read on Ydrasse? (202)

Speaking of Ydrasse, I don't really have any particularly strong feelings either way on her. I do feel slightly sympathetic as I'm kind of in a similar position (first non-newbie game, struggling to get into it properly) but that is an objectively bad reason to townread someone.

Raya I was vaguely townleaning earlier, but I'm not really so sure now, I haven't really seen the follow-up I was looking for.

Homura/Almost50 have very little AI content between them.

VOTE: RCEnigma, for lack of any better ideas. If anyone has a case against someone I'm not townreading, let me know!

[Snowblaze]

VOTE: Snowblaze

Is this because of Holden’s post, or because I haven’t posted in a while?

@Holden, if you must try and get me killed, you could at least spell my name right. Anyway: my original vote on Fredrick was more a gut ping than anything else. It’s kind of hard to put it into words, especially a few days later, but I thought he was just opportunistically hopping on wagons.

I unvoted because I thought his remark on scum not having daytalk was a townslip after finding out that scum did have daytalk. Probably should have made that slightly clearer.

As for my post with the RCE vote, that’s probably because I didn’t really have any scumreads (still don’t, I guess). And it wasn’t “why everyone else can’t be scum” it was more “why I don’t want to vote for other people”.

[Snowblaze]

yeah Snow has been scummy actually
she's playing to her scum meta of having plenty of reads early and there's none of that free flowing paranoia that comes with her towngame
and the fredrick unvote and RCE votes are both bad

don't mind that wagon either

~Eve

It’s more just... I never really managed to get properly invested in this game (probably a good thing, considering I’d be feeling much worse about my wagon if I was!)

And... I wouldn’t say it’s exactly early in the game, three-quarters of the way into day one. My scum meta is more having early

scum

reads rather than the point I’m at now of a townpile and a nullish-pile.

[Snowblaze]

@Fredrick: because I don’t want to be stressed by an internet game? Because I don’t like feeling bad?

[Snowblaze]

I had a problem with the snow wagon but I don't remember what it was and the lack of defense is meh. There are a few people I think might have scumtold but it's mostly comparing to things I've done/said in past scum games.

That's a tomorrow issue.
VOTE: Snowblaze
L-1

Welp. Could you... not do that? I’d rather not be eliminated. I’ve probably left it far too late to do anything about it, but...

Yeah, sorry. I haven’t been contributing enough, I haven’t been my usual obvtown self, I’ve just never really had enough information to work with. And I’m not going to have time for it today, and after that there’s a deadline and no plausible counter-wagon to me.

I did try to explain myself wrt Holden’s post; if you mean “no-one else is defending me” then that’s actually a good point: wouldn’t my hypothetical scum partners be trying to keep me alive? Actually, general question @everyone on my wagon: if I’m scum, what are my partners doing?

If I have time later and no-one’s hammered I’ll see if I can manage some analysis, but I can’t promise anything.

[Snowblaze]

And then they have to confirm five townies. Sounds like a great plan.

[Snowblaze]

Yeah. I’m trying. I was just going to point out that RCE’s vote on me is ringing all kinds of alarm bells.

“I vaguely remember not liking this wagon, and I think other people have done scummy stuff, but I’m fine with eliminating this anyway, we can worry about other stuff tomorrow”.

That just screams “scum trying to push a miselimination through while simultaneously distancing from it” to me.

Other than that, in general I feel like scum are on the latter half of my wagon rather than the early part. I’ll see if I can find what I particularly don’t like.

[Snowblaze]

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

Ydrasse gets slight town points because I feel like scum would be less likely to blatantly admit they’re sheeping, and also for trying to work with me instead of writing me off as scum (although, yes, scum could easily fake that.)

[Snowblaze]

...thanks, I guess?

[Snowblaze]

Looking at it again, I’m also not really liking A50’s entrance onto my wagon. He’s basically saying “as long as I’m not townreading them I’m down for a wagon” which feels like trying to deny responsibility for the miselimination he’s part of.

This was your stance on me so I don't understand why you feel that way towards A50.

I mean, yeah. It was.

But on the other hand, a) there were a lot more people that I wasn’t prepared to vote for at that point, and b) I wasn’t putting you at E-2.

Thanks for giving me more time. I think I need to go through and properly re-evaluate everyone. I’m probably too tired to do a good job of it, but I’m forcing myself to do it anyway on the grounds that I should have done it ages ago.

@S_S: is that purely because of the unvote, or are there other reasons?

[Snowblaze]

So. Let’s see.

Townreads and leans

Umlaut
Fredrick A Campbell
Eevee
Menalque (with a slight dose of paranoia; I’d re-evaluate day two if I thought I was going to make it there. For someone taking control of the game and decide the wagons he's not as obvtown as I'd like (I know, I know, I'm a hypocrite, but I'm not trying to decide which wagons are allowed.))
HoldenGolden
Chemist1422

Everyone else

Something_Smart: can you produce AI content, please?
Mohab500: see above. It’s kind of worrying at this point, though, and I’m not seeing anything to contradict my initial gut pings.

The four I'm not townreading who have actually done AI stuff will get seperate posts. I don't normally like to go through ISOs in as much detail as I'm going to since it makes me confbias, but I don't expect to live long enough to re-evaluate, so...

[Snowblaze]

RCEnigma

I still don't get the initial Porkens vote, but I'm not sure it's strongly AI either way.

The mechanics stuff... I don't really like making reads based on mechanical speculation, but again it seems weird from either alignment. I'm trying to think through this: scum!RCE would have presumably asked the question in the PT before making 168, otherwise he would have kept it secret in case the answer was yes. At the same time, town!RCE would have wanted to keep it a secret if he didn't already know the answer, since that post is encouraging scum to consider possibilities they might otherwise not have thought of... yeah, I don't think this is getting me any closer to a read, I'll just move on.

238 is okay, but the kind of solving that would be easy enough for scum to fake.

239 and 257 - this is the sort of thing I'd be kind of expecting from scum in the gamestate at the time.

264 - I do get the logic here, but I'm not really sure the information denied to scum outweighs the information denied to town, plus I find it very hard to play without talking about townreads.

536 - that's actually a valid explanation; personally if I'd had a thought like that and the answer was yes I'd keep my mouth shut about it and hope scum don't have weird enough logic to figure it out, but I guess it makes sense.

599 - actually not as bad as I originally thought given the context of the post above.

612 - I appreciate this, and I do feel it's slightly town-AI.

...yup, my reads are a confused mess again. What fun. At least if I'm eliminated I don't have to worry about getting them straight!

I'm getting slight pings in both directions, and I can't really work out whether the town-AI things outweigh the scum-AI things. That being said, I'm keeping my vote firmly where it is in the most-likely-vain-hope of self-preservation.

(By the way, we have plurality elimination at deadline, so you don't need to hammer me (or anyone else) just to get an elimination.)

[Snowblaze]

Ydrasse

182 - I guess I can sort of see where this is coming from... not sure I agree, though, and it's also kind of an overjustification (yes, I'm still a hypocrite. Deal with it.)

354 - I generally feel like town would mind being scumread more than scum (okay, okay, I got the message. When I can understand the reasons behind my being scumread as town I'm fine with it because I can just blame myself rather than needing to be angry at people for misreading me). Given my interjection in brackets, if Ydrasse thinks a similar way to me it's not as scum-AI as I originally thought.

416 - not entirely sure I like the asking Menalque what wagons are acceptable here, feels kind of "I want to get on and please people" rather than "I want to find scum".

552 - *sigh* fair enough, I suppose. I'm just not doing a good job of this game, "advancing the gamestate" is a bit beyond my capabilities unless you want to wagon me and force me to do stuff... oh, wait, you do. Never mind, then. I'll get on with it.

605 - yeah, I needed that. As I mentioned earlier, slight townpoints.

Oh, look, another clueless nullish read. My gut is telling me Ydrasse is town, though. Not sure my gut is at all reliable, but whatever.

(Am I going to get through the last two of these without falling asleep at the keyboard?)

Actually, stuff it: I'm done for today. Please don't hammer me until I can get through analysis of Raya and A50, for completeness's sake if nothing else. I'll do it at some point tomorrow morning.

[Snowblaze]

I’m... not dead?

Still tired, but I’ll make myself do those last two ISOs in a couple of hours. In the meantime, VOTE: Mohab500 for self-preservation.

[Snowblaze]

S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

I’d like it if you couldn’t

(If you think I’m most likely to flip scum, fair enough, I probably won’t be able to change your minds.)

[Snowblaze]

Oh yeah, someone asked me about the Fredrick townslip, didn’t they?

I mean, yes, it’s something scum could fake but it’s just not something I feel they’d be likely to. I think more often than that these things are genuine townslip rather than scum faking them. Not to the point where I’d be willing to lock him as town on that alone, but certainly enough to give him a pass for a day or two.

[Snowblaze]

Raya36

The point she makes about Holden in 27 is a real stretch, but for barely-out-of-RVS I guess I can... sort of understand it. RCEnigma does make a good point that specifically claiming credit for escaping RVS is suspicious, though.

I vaguely remember not liking the transition between 127 and 136 - it reads like scum changing their minds as soon as I'm a possible suspect.

I do like her assessment of Craig/Menalque in 155, 161 and 192 - these are quite similar to my own thoughts at the time.

Not quite sure about her progression on Fredrick from 319 to 443, it's hard to see the progression there.

Blatantly sheeping for a wagon is... kind of scummy, but I also feel like scum wouldn't want to draw attention to those actions.

I generally don't like the Holden wagon that sprung up a few days ago, and her entry onto it isn't exactly inspiring.

I think I'm largely okay with her position on me, I feel like there's a pretty good chance scum would be okay with jumping on my wagon or at least voting there in spirit.

The Eevee vote is spicy, and I think I like it. There's no attempt to protect any scum partner there, it seems genuine.

And, as I said earlier, I appreciate her defence of me.

Overall, I think I'm townleaning Raya - although if Mohab and RCE are both town, I could see her as scum trying to set me up to be miseliminated after Mohab tomorrow.

One more to go, and then I think I need to take a look at these wagon dynamics. There's got to be some useful information in there.

[Snowblaze]

Almost50

Not getting anything strongly AI from his predecessor Homura.

Slight

townpoints from 445 for admitting he's probably biased.

513 - defending RCE, which... I guess I can understand. I think I already mentioned I disagree with not outing TRs, but at the same time I can see where he's coming from here. But things like that on their own aren't enough for one of only two confident townreads, imo.

Kind of disagree with 545, which is missing the possibility that scum!RCE asked the question in private before even mentioning the possibility. 559 I can understand, I've been in positions where I've wanted to say that sort of thing as town.

566 - a strong meta read makes a lot more sense as a reason for hard-defending RCE like this, but it's also impossible to verify.

And I already gave my thoughts on 570.

So, overall I'm fairly null, but if RCE flips scum at some point he definitely needs to be next.

[Snowblaze]

I think I’ve started to care about this game. Which, naturally, means I am a ball of stress and paranoia, because I do not like being wagoned.

Anyway, nice to know I have a bit more time. I’ll respond to your case tomorrow, Menalque, as well as any other questions people have. Please don’t get me killed in the meantime!

[Snowblaze]

Cool, still not dead.

Scattered thoughts:
I’m not liking how much of my wagon is just “let’s follow Menalque, he’s the only one with an actual strong opinion”.

Menalque, when you say you’re not trying to force my elimination through... I disagree pretty strongly with that. Asking everyone in sight to vote me counts pretty strongly as forcing my elimination imo.

On Mohab and townslipping, I’m probably not the most neutral and unbiased source, but I feel like there’s a difference between “scum would know this but town wouldn’t, this is therefore a townslip” and “either alignment would know this if they just

read the setup

”.

My paranoid tinfoil brain is telling me that Mohab is town and scum are setting up for two miseliminations in a row. The rest of my brain is hoping that’s not the case.

Will respond to Menalque’s case against me now.

[Snowblaze]

S_S, chemist, RCE

I’d like it if some combination of you could vote snowblaze at this point to ensure she’s guillotined today

Why Snowblaze over Mohab?

I still think the original reasons for scumreading her are sound: the lack of scumhunting through the day, posts like 110 and 290 are overexplainy in a scummy way I think — there’s no need to say that mohab is scummy but not enough for a vote that early in the game and feeling like you need that level of justification is more likely to come from a new scumplayer I think. Same thing in 290, the reasons are very weak and probably didn’t need to be provided and I struggle to see why town would think it’s necessary to give them while making that vote.

Holden’s point is still valid about how 330 was an odd phrasing for why she was unvoting fredrick although her explanation in 530 isn’t unreasonable. However, speaking of 530, she has referred a couple of times to “not really having many scumreads” which I think is scummy (and more so from newbscum tbh) as I think it can be hard to come up with a convincing fake scumread when you’re scum and so it can be easier to just avoid that by saying “ahh everyone is just kinda town :/“

Her reads in 415 have an IIoA vibe to them where she’s just sort of describing what slots are like or what people have done rather than trying to figure out their alignments, and her 4 recent walls have nothing that I don’t think could be faked by scum in them and I see them as very out of sync with my own reads and impressions of those slots. They also just seem disjointed as a whole — like my pick for the scumteam rn is probably (snow, raya, eevee) and I think that makes a lot of sense given how they’ve reacted to one another and to the gamestate, which is the final bit of why I think snow is scum — the wagon on her came up quite naturally I’d say, but has been resisted throughout (it’s part of my scumreads on eevee and raya that I think they were both doing this) but no-one has really been wanting to towncase snow, they’ve just avoided voting for her or argued for voting elsewhere.

And then mohab feels like a soft target (given the dumbtelling and also the lack of posting) who scum are picking as their counterwagon to keep it off snow. I don’t feel strongly enough that snow is scum and that mohab isn’t to want to brute force her lynch (which is something I’m trying to do less anyway, as you may have noted in JK9++ when I didn’t try to force lilith through when her wagon was competing with yours). I wouldn’t be shocked if mohab flipped scum, but it feels much more like she’s the attempt to keep the guillotine off snow after doing the same with RCE failed, and I think there is a lot of pressure on scum to try to ensure that their team don’t get guillotined D1.

1. It’s pretty common for town!me to have a lack of scumreads, particularly on day one.

2. The IIOA thing is because it’s kind of hard to analyse a lack of AI content.

3. Your reads are probably different to mine because you’re approaching things from the perspective that I’m scum.

4. Not really sure where you’re seeing resistance to my wagon, especially early on: it picked up momentum pretty quickly after Holden’s post, I went from zero to E-1 in three pages. That’s not a wagon that’s being resisted by scum.

[Snowblaze]

1. Here you go:
viewtopic.php?t=82899&f=50&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&user_select%5B%5D=34214&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_sort=Go
viewtopic.php?t=83266&f=11&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&user_select%5B%5D=34214&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_select%5B%5D=0&user_sort=Go

2. At the time of my reads post there wasn't really much useful content to go on for several slots.

3. I'm not really looking at the bigger picture yet, I feel like that'll be easier if I have a flip to work with (preferably not mine!)

As for your other question, S_S literally joined my wagon because you asked him to.

pedit: that... is a good point, I am getting really worried that we're dealing with TvT wagons here... I need to go back through the last few pages, work out everyone's positions on me/Mohab, see if I can figure anything out.

[Snowblaze]

Umlaut:
- says he "doesn't hate" my wagon in 591;
- decides to instead start the Mohab wagon in 596 and advocates her elimination.

Fredrick:
- votes me based on Holden's post in 522;
- switches to Mohab in 608 based on an earlier post;
- switches off-wagon to Ydrasse in 714

(@Fredrick, I don't think we're eliminating Ydrasse today, I'd appreciate it if you could vote Mohab instead. Or you could vote me, but...)

Something_Smart:
- votes for me on Menalque's request in 671;
- unvotes in 739;
- declares he's okay with Mohab dying but not with eliminating an empty slot in 741

Eevee:
- Eva head votes for me in 533 based on Holden's post;
- Eve head switches to RCE in 547;
- Eve claims not to mind my wagon in 568;
- Eve votes for Mohab in 622;
- both heads proceed to scumread Mohab and push the wagon; Eve finds me townier

Menalque has... made his stance pretty clear, he wants me dead. Doesn't particularly mind the Mohab elimination of itself, but thinks it's a counterwagon to scum!me.

RCEnigma:
- votes for me in 599
- unvotes to see my analysis
- revotes on Menalque's request

Montosh isn't fully caught up yet, but his predecessor started my wagon and advocated my death. His vote is still on me.

Titus has yet to give a firm stance, although 697 implies she thinks I'm more likely to be scum than Mohab.

Ydrasse:
- votes me in 552
- encourages me to produce analysis
- switches to Mohab in 658
- argues that I could be town

Raya36:
- townreads parts of my content
- doesn't want me eliminated
- joins Mohab wagon despite a push on Eevee earlier

Almost50
- votes me in 570
- doesn't really care which of me/Mohab is eliminated.

I'm running out of time, so I'm afraid this post will have to be blatant IIOA. I'll analyse the information tomorrow.

[Snowblaze]

Oh, right, we have a third wagon now. Trying to work out what that means for my chances of survival.

Also trying to work out whether Titus’s vote makes sense from either alignment, and coming to the conclusion of “no, it doesn’t”.

As town, surely she’d be wanting to vote for whichever of me/Mohab she thinks is most likely to be scum, considering she believes one of us is scum; but as scum the only reason she has not to hop on a wagon is that both of us are scum, which I know to be false - and, if she’s desperately trying to save both of her partners, she’d surely offer a better explanation than “Because why not?”

With that said, I’m slightly concerned at the speed this wagon appeared, but I am townreading everyone on it. Anyway, I know none of them are trying to protect scum!me, and if they were protecting scum!Mohab it would be far easier to just jump on me...

I’m confused.

[Snowblaze]

Umlaut:
- says he "doesn't hate" my wagon in 591;
- decides to instead start the Mohab wagon in 596 and advocates her elimination.
- switches to Titus based on the Ydrasse vote.

Fredrick:
- votes me based on Holden's post in 522;
- switches to Mohab in 608 based on an earlier post;
- switches off-wagon to Ydrasse in 714
- starts Titus wagon in 763
Something_Smart:
- votes for me on Menalque's request in 671;
- unvotes in 739;
- declares he's okay with Mohab dying but not with eliminating an empty slot in 741

Eevee:
- Eva head votes for me in 533 based on Holden's post;
- Eve head switches to RCE in 547;
- Eve claims not to mind my wagon in 568;
- Eve votes for Mohab in 622;
- both heads proceed to scumread Mohab and push the wagon; Eve finds me townier

Menalque has... made his stance pretty clear, he wants me dead. Doesn't particularly mind the Mohab elimination of itself, but thinks it's a counterwagon to scum!me. He does then switch to Titus based on the Ydrasse vote.

RCEnigma:
- votes for me in 599
- unvotes to see my analysis
- revotes on Menalque's request

Montosh, having caught up, continues his predecessor's stance of advocating my death.

Titus has yet to give a firm stance, although 697 implies she thinks I'm more likely to be scum than Mohab. She votes for Ydrasse, because "why not?"

Ydrasse:
- votes me in 552
- encourages me to produce analysis
- switches to Mohab in 658
- argues that I could be town

Raya36:
- townreads parts of my content
- doesn't want me eliminated
- joins Mohab wagon despite a push on Eevee earlier

Almost50
- votes me in 570
- doesn't really care which of me/Mohab is eliminated.

I'm running out of time, so I'm afraid this post will have to be blatant IIOA. I'll analyse the information tomorrow.

Tomorrow has arrived. Although the dynamics have changed a bit with the Titus wagon now. I've added the events since I made the above post to the quote.

Assuming scum!Mohab

I was going to say this would look very bad for Menalque... and then he switched to Titus. Which, if he's trying to protect Mohab, makes very little sense when he could continue pushing me instead.

With that possibility removed, I'd say the scum on my wagon would be more likely in {Something_Smart, Almost50, possibly RCE}... although A50 makes less sense as scum without RCE... but two of those three as Mohab's scum partners, fairly sure.

Assuming town!Mohab

I'm as good as dead day two if Mohab is eliminated and flips town, so I'm really hoping this isn't the case, but...
- the Titus wagon looks worse as it could be an attempt to distance from a miselimination
- anyone taking stances of "I'm fine with both of these wagons..." is more suspicious... oh wait, that's half the player base. That is a slight issue.
- going more on instinct here, but I think scum would want to be taking different stances, one or two defending me/attacking Mohab and one or two the other way around, to make it easier to chain-eliminate both of us.

If there's scum defending me I think Raya is the most likely, and then I'd need to look back through the thread, try and work out possible partners...

...I think I've worked out why some people don't like pre-flip associatives. If Mohab dies today I'll at least know which world I should be working in, and I can try and get a better grip on this game.

[Snowblaze]

So if it’s not OMGUS, what made you vote for Titus? Her vote for the same person you were voting for at the time?

[Snowblaze]

...I go away for

one hour

and I'm back at E-1? Seriously?

[Snowblaze]

(At least I think it's E-1, my quick glance through the thread since last vote count may not have been accurate. But in line to be eliminated, anyway.)

Not really sure what I can do, there's probably no way I'm getting out of this alive. If anyone wants to pile some votes on Mohab to save me that would be much appreciated, but...

I'm honestly getting to the point where I feel like if I somehow survive today I'm just going to be eliminated tomorrow, and it might be best to just get it over with. I would have preferred it if you could have done it days ago before I started to actually care instead of giving me false hope, but...

Oh well. Have fun without me, and make sure to find some actual scum. You know my reads, but you may not want to trust them considering I barely had a grip on this game until I reached E-1 the first time. Hopefully my townflip will give you some information to work with, I don't want my death to be in vain.

[Snowblaze]

Nope, I'm at E-2. Not that it makes a massive amount of difference at this point.

Getting vague scum vibes from S_S's brief comment but lack of contribution to the theory that I'm scum. For what it's worth, which is very little.

[Snowblaze]

@S_S: instinct, probably nothing meaningful.

[Snowblaze]

It just feels like the main discussion point at the time is Titus's theory that I'm scum, and you come in and talk about something only tangentially related instead of giving your opinion on the theory.

[Snowblaze]

If you townread me, could you hop on the Mohab wagon to keep me alive please? *puppy eyes*

[Snowblaze]

Yay, thanks. Not like it makes much of a difference, but I appreciate it anyway.

[Snowblaze]

Or it might. I don't know. I wasn't counting either. Let me check.

[Snowblaze]

Actually, yeah, that puts us both at E-2 with Umlaut, Menalque and Mohab off-wagon. This is going to go right down to the wire. What fun.

[Snowblaze]

*headdesk* can't we just get this done?

[Snowblaze]

Oh well, I supposed “trapped in an endless cycle of deadline extensions” is slightly better than “dead”.

[Snowblaze]

VOTE: snow

E-1. Guess with the replacement's inevitable self-preservation vote, I'm dead.

Unless anyone wants to change their vote? Please?

...not going to happen, is it?

I'm allowed to hope. And at least I won't have to go through another day of impending deadline if I do die.

[Snowblaze]

Okay. Seriously. Can you just make up your mind whether you're going to eliminate me or not? I can't take much more of this constant back-and-forth.

If I'm not dead by tomorrow I'll try and contribute usefully instead of complaining.

pedit: thank you, Eve. Nice to know someone cares about my continued existence.

[Snowblaze]

It's fine. Not your fault, just general frustration.

[Snowblaze]

I reached the tied number first? I think? I was on E-1 and Titus unvoted to tie it with both at E-2. That means I die anyway if nothing changes... right?

[Snowblaze]

...okay. I’m alive. Now please let this flip scum so I don’t have to go through this all over again tomorrow.

[Snowblaze]

...okay. I’m alive. Now please let this flip scum so I don’t have to go through this all over again tomorrow.

Any plans for what you will do after the flip?

Depends whether it’s town or scum.

[Snowblaze]

Mainly in my life expectancy. But... either way I’ll re-read the thread, try and get my head straight, come up with some slightly more confident reads. Just if she flips town I’ll be doing all of that in the knowledge that I’m as good as dead.

[Snowblaze]

Because I don't know what the flip is going to be and basically every reason I could come up with would depend on it. Also because it's too early in the morning for serious analysis.

[Snowblaze]

a) I've kind of done that already, and b) I really don't want to do a ton of analysis only to find it's all worthless anyway.

I've decided that the delay is because Maemuki is scum and they're trying to decide who to confirm as town. There is no other possible explanation. I may or may not have decided that purely because it's what I want to be the case.

[Snowblaze]

Although there is one thing I want to note: A50's reasoning for getting Fredrick to vote me is just... "if she's town, that means Titus will have to reconsider whether you're scum". Which... no. That is not a reason you should ever be voting for anyone if you're town.

(Also I want a pagetop. Pagetops are nice.)

[Snowblaze]

...because town aren't trying to clear themselves or be townread, town are trying to eliminate scum.

[Snowblaze]

From my PoV, yes. Also the declaration of intent to hammer implies you think Maemuki is more likely to be scum than me.

[Snowblaze]

Yay, I’m confirmed town! *purrs* Although it doesn’t help that literally everyone I could have called a confident townread after yesterday also is.

I like the picture, Eve (Eva? Eevee?).

Kind of agree with Umlaut, I’m paranoid about double-bussing. Again, the confirmation off-wagon is making me paranoid, and the fact I’m confirmed is a bit... well, this is WIFOM, but if scum were all on my wagon I’d think they could have left me unconfirmed to try and push the narrative that the wagons were SvS. Or maybe they just felt sorry for me after yesterday? But, yeah, it’s unlikely. Just don’t lock everyone on the Maemuki wagon as town. Just in case.


Will try and come up with some proper reads soon, although I may be a bit lazier now my life no longer depends on it!

[Snowblaze]

Off the top of my head, without reading back through anything since the confirmations:

A50 looks a lot worse after that scumflip; his case for Fredrick to vote me is still bad.

I actually vaguely townlean Montosh, although a lot of that is “would scum really be blatant as to agree strongly with their hammered partner’s post in twilight” (No, I don’t think so, in most cases at least).

Menalque... I kind of agree with Eve on this, my gut says he’s town but my brain says taking him to ElLo is a Bad Idea. I just feel like scum would

know

that even if they miseliminated me Maemuki would almost certainly be next and then they’d still be looking terrible...

which would imply they were bussing.

Having said that, I think I’m okay with Ydrasse and I don’t have a problem with Raya either. Although I will need to make sure I’m not getting those townleans purely from their defence of me yesterday.

RCE and S_S I’m not sure on at all, I’d need to read back to work that out.

[Snowblaze]

@S_S, can you explain your progression on me yesterday? Why did you go from voting me in 671 to townreading me by 837?

[Snowblaze]

I think I’ve discovered yet another problem with being wagoned and nearly eliminated. It makes me feel bad for anyone else who comes remotely close to death, which is a concern because those people could be scum and I’d end up defending them purely from sympathy.

Anyway, to answer your questions, A50: scum!you confirms Fredrick to maximise the potential pool of miseliminations by not being forced to defend non-confirmed town (yes, this argument could also be applied to RCE but he’s not as widely townread as Fredrick was, plus he could still be scum).

And you would blatantly defend RCE, if he is your partner, because you really need to make sure he isn’t eliminated to avoid exactly the position you’re in now.

[Snowblaze]

So, thoughts.

Raya and Ydrasse both commited to townreading me and eliminating Mohab/Maemuki. Neither changed their mind despite being given plenty of opportunities to do so. If either of them is scum they were committing to the bus there.

It's pretty bad strategy for only one scum to bus their partner in this setup: they're sacrificing a member and confirming five town in exchange for towncred for one of them which is irrelevant if the other is eliminated. So I'm willing to say that Raya and Ydrasse are the same alignment, and that alignment is

probably

town.

Montosh I... think I'm okay with. I can understand both his and his predecessor's reasons for scumreading me, even if they were wrong (incidentally, have I mentioned I love being confirmed town so I can say these things without being scumread for them?) and again I just don't think scum, knowing how Maemuki is about to flip, would quote one of her posts and agree with it that much.

Something_Smart I'm not so sure I like. He's defending me in 633, but then is perfectly willing to vote me in 671. Then there's the whole "I don't mind eliminating Mohab but I'm not voting for him", and despite saying he townreads me he doesn't vote Mohab until I specifically ask him to.

iirc, after that vote, both wagons were at E-2 with Umlaut, Menalque and Mohab off-wagon. It was pretty clear that Menalque would vote for me and Umlaut for Mohab, and Mohab certainly wouldn't have been self-voting, so if it wasn't for the extension and then Titus switching over I would have been eliminated. So, unlike Raya and Ydrasse, scum!S_S in this position wasn't committing to a bus, he was distancing himself from a miselimination and his partner Mohab.

Menalque... I don't even know where I am on Menalque. On the surface he looks pretty terrible, but scum!Menalque would have known that after my miselimination there's a fair chance Mohab is next and he won't have time to escape before he's eliminated after the scumflip, but... wait, this is all WIFOM which isn't getting me anywhere. I don't know. I think there are others more likely to flip scum, but I also think taking him to ElLo is a Bad Idea.

RCE... still "confused null" here, I think. Will try and work on getting a more concrete impression.

And yeah, I still scumread A50 for 823. Plus the towncred he got for admitting to being biased against Mohab now looks like a perfect way to go "I think she's scum but I'm not voting her because Reasons".

[Snowblaze]

Blatantly prodging, I’m tired and caught up in other games. I’ll get to this tomorrow.

[Snowblaze]

I think you might need to wagon me again to force me to get some solving done.

[Snowblaze]

...yeah. I probably do actually need to contribute usefully, but I'm tired and trying to come up with thoughts involves actual effort.

My townread on Ydrasse is based more or less solely on her interactions with me, but the good thing about this setup is that we don't have to worry about her being a deepwolf if she is, we can just catch her partner and win anyway! Unless, as I mentioned earlier, it's Ydrasse/Raya, but I'm not sure I want to go into that when there's plenty of people more likely to be scum.

A50... I'm at the stage where I'm sympathetic but I still think he's scum, so I'm probably just going to end up voting there and feeling terrible about it.

wrt his posts reminding you of mine, Ydrasse: ...I can kind of see where you're coming from, a lot of his posts remind me of how I felt yesterday... but I was also trying to solve (well. Up until it reached the point of needing a flip to get anywhere) whereas... he's given that one townread on RCE and... nothing else...

I'm also okay with wagoning S_S, but if the other confirmed townies prefer A50 I don't mind trusting you.

There we are. I've given thoughts. See, I don't need a wagon to motivate me.

[Snowblaze]

If Ydrasse is scum she’s had me pocketed for days, so I may not be the best person to try and read her, but I can’t get past the fact that scum!Ydrasse is committing to a suboptimal strategy (bussing) in a setup where the towncred she gains doesn’t even matter that much. The only way I can see scum!Ydrasse is if her partner is Raya, and that’s improbable at best.

[Snowblaze]

Stop pocketing me, Raya!

(Also, yeah, sorry for going into lurkmode now I’m confirmed town.)

On S_S... the way I’m seeing it, his vote on Mohab was (at the time) unlikely to actually get Mohab killed. It could be a case of distancing gone wrong rather than actual bussing.

[Snowblaze]

I'll take the free pagetop, anyway!

So, um, yeah. I'm at the point where I do actually have enough time to devote to this game, but I've completely lost track of what's going on. I'll do a proper catchup and work out what my reads are tomorrow.

[Snowblaze]

Interactions from Mohab/Maemuki to the unconfirmed

13 - RVS vote for Holden/Montosh

45 - dislikes Raya’s opening; disagrees with Porkens’s.

230 - reads list: town on Holden/Montosh, scum on RCE, null on Craig/Menalque

502 - RCE vote

503 - doesn’t understand the Holden wagon

879 - asks for S_S’s reasoning for the vote on her

Not much to go on, is there?

I do feel based on this RCE is probably town, unless Mohab was bussing which I find unlikely. The tone of 879 makes me feel S_S isn’t Maemuki’s partner, although I’m not convinced by that at all.

As for Holden/Montosh... I don’t quite know.

[Snowblaze]

Probably just going to make a few IIOA wallposts because hey, I'm confirmed town, I can do scummy stuff and get away with it. Also because they might actually come in handy at some point.

Interactions from Something_Smart to Mohab/Maemuki

741 - doesn't mind eliminating the slot but wants someone to be in it

839 - votes there on my request

872 - likes Maemuki's response but leaves his vote there, despite Menalque - I do need to check the vote count from that point, that's the critical point... both of us at E-2 with Umlaut, Maemuki, Titus not voting, it's unclear which way Titus would go in this situation... it's a real risk for scum!S_S not to switch there. Doesn't really fit with my theory of "distancing gone wrong" - although after my miselimination, Maemuki goes next and then S_S looks terrible if he had switched - and scum kind of have to take risks in that position - this is

complicated

.

Interactions from Menalque to Mohab/Maemuki

73 - naked vote there

106 - Mohab is an easier miselimination - I kind of want to try and read into this but I don't think it means anything.

207 - reads list with Mohab as town

288 and 289 - explains townread

440 - doesn't want to eliminate Mohab day one

653 - not convinced by Mohab wagon, sees it as a counter to scum!me

868 - asking Maemuki to vote for me

...doesn't exactly look great. But my instincts are saying town and I can't work out why.

[Snowblaze]

Interactions from RCEnigma to Mohab/Maemuki

.

238 - pressure vote with questions attached

Parks his vote there until 497, trying to encourage Menalque to go there, but then doesn't interact with the large wagon on Mohab - I think the logic for going with me over Mohab was trusting Menalque on the grounds that he'd be more-or-less confirmed scum given a scum!Mohab flip.

I am really not liking this at all. There's also the fact that he supported the Titus wagon and made a case against Titus but never actually switched to vote there, which would imply he was trying to persuade others to switch off the Mohab wagon to protect his partner?

But I thought based on the Mohab ISO he was probably town... confused again. Fun, fun, fun.

...no, it could just be RCE/A50, couldn't it? A50 intervened in defence of RCE immediately after the Mohab vote...

Can I just go back to lurking? It's so much less confusing.

[Snowblaze]

Stuff it, I'll re-read the thread before I do any more of these. I think I'd almost finished day one yesterday and have an urge to send virtual hugs to my past self.

[Snowblaze]

...oh, go on then, I'll have a pagetop.

[Snowblaze]

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

Well, firstly I think I'm not the best person to ask, but...

No. I'm starting to come round to the idea that there's actually quite a good chance of bussing. I don't want that to be the case, because I'd like to think I was towny enough under pressure to not have a nearly-all-town wagon on me.

But it makes sense. I'll elaborate tomorrow when I have more time.

[Snowblaze]

Snowblaze, you’re online, do you think that’s crazy?

Well, firstly I think I'm not the best person to ask, but...

No. I'm starting to come round to the idea that there's actually quite a good chance of bussing. I don't want that to be the case, because I'd like to think I was towny enough under pressure to not have a nearly-all-town wagon on me.

But it makes sense. I'll elaborate tomorrow when I have more time.

Okay. Here’s what I was thinking. It was pretty clear yesterday by a certain point that the wagons were me/Mohab, and that wasn’t likely to change. If I’d been eliminated yesterday Mohab would almost certainly have been next. So if scum successfully push my elimination they’ve got one miselimination, they still have to confirm five townies and they look bad for pushing the town counterwagon to scum.

But if they bus their team-mate, they’re sacrificing the opportunity to miseliminate me, but my wagon then looks terrible without scum associated with it and the scum get plenty of towncred because “the setup punishes bussing, there’s no way there was scum on this wagon”.

[Snowblaze]

Okay. Re-read the entire thread, all that’s done is made me more paranoid. I’m starting to think the people encouraging others to not out townreads yesterday might have a point, considering all but one of my day one townreads are now confirmed.

I’ll look through some ISOs, not going to wallpost but it will probably be useful. I think I also need to see the precise context of Raya and Ydrasse’s Mohab votes.

[Snowblaze]

Raya was the first of the unconfirmed to join the Mohab wagon in 634. The vote count at that stage (625) made it pretty clear that the RCE wagon was vanishing and the day becoming me/Mohab.

Ydrasse switched from me to Mohab in 658, with the vote count unchanged except for my self-preservation vote on Mohab.

...it’s not impossible. Is it likely? I... don’t know.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, I think I’m now townreading Menalque.

Yes, I do need to commit to something at some point - I’ll read through Ydrasse and S_S to see which I prefer. Soon. I promise.

[Snowblaze]

Yes, I know, I’ve been abusing my conftown status to lurk until deadline. Oh well. Time to actually make a decision. Let me skim through some ISOs first.

[Snowblaze]

ISOs skimmed through; I’m not strongly townreading either and I can’t be bothered to go through in more detail.

Unofficial Vote Count:

Almost50 5 (Ydrasse, Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Eevee, Menalque)
Ydrasse 2 (Almost50, Titus)
Menalque 2 (Montosh, RCEnigma)
Raya36 1 (Something_Smart)
Not voting: Snowblaze, Raya36

I would be concerned about the rapid switch from Ydrasse to A50, but most of the people who switched are confirmed town!

Skimming through the official vote counts for today, looking in particular at unconfirmed:

Ydrasse and Menalque have consistently voted A50 while he was a major wagon.

A50 and Menalque have consistently voted Ydrasse while she was a major wagon.

Raya was on the earlier A50 wagon, but not the current one.

So they’re not scum with each other, and unlikely to be scum with Menalque.

[Snowblaze]

For instance, the fact that I’m not sure a single conftown has voiced a take on whether scum were more likely to bus or to be supporting the snow wagon, let alone had a conversation with me about it

1392 doesn’t count, then?

[Snowblaze]

Okay, sure. Let's try this. I really need to be voting, and Menalque's case makes sense.

VOTE: Montosh.

[Snowblaze]

Oops. That failed.

And I guess I need to look back through Menalque again. Although I still think he could be town.

[Snowblaze]

Also, just as a warning: be careful about putting people at E-1, scum can quickhammer and escape tonight.

[Snowblaze]

VOTE: Something_Smart. Barring white flag gambits, this is the only vaguely possible partner for scum!Menalque, and I have no particular reason off the top of my head to think he couldn't be scum with anyone else. Will look back through his ISO and see what I can find, but I'm okay with this to start.

[Snowblaze]

Again, with Fredrick's observation on the day 1 wagons in mind, Ydrasse diverted attention from competing town wagons in favor of Raya (who should be in the poe). You kind of have to make a leap in assuming my alignment to get there since you're all slots that aren't me.

The only time ydrasse broke character (townreading Montosh) was when Montosh was already pretty much sentenced to death.

Here comes the shade... Off the back of the second menalque led wagon on town.

It appears that RCEnigma has forgotten we don't know if attention was diverted from two competing town wagons.

If I'm interpreting that post correctly, the wagons at the time were HoldenGolden (replaced by Montosh, who just flipped town) and RCE himself. So from town!RCE's perspective he does know that.

[Snowblaze]

Just accidentally deleted half the wallpost I was working on. Yay.

I guess I can give you the tl;dr, which is that I was trying to rule out as many teams as possible. Here are those I think are highly unlikely, based mostly on the events of day two:

S_S/Ydrasse
Menalque/Ydrasse
Menalque/A50
Menalque/RCE
Ydrasse/A50
Raya/A50
(Menalque/Raya as well based on today's events so far, but observe that carefully just in case)

So apparently I'm now townreading Menalque based purely on the lack of possible scum!Menalque partners. I... think I'm okay with that.

Why does scum!Menalque try to start a flashwagon yesterday, knowing that if it succeeds he'll end up looking terrible for leading multiple town wagons? He's not trying to protect a scum partner, because I've already ruled out Menalque/A50. Unless anyone does think Menalque/A50 is plausible?

(There is, of course, the "because people will townread me for doing things scum wouldn't do because they're aware of how suspicious it looks", but then we're getting into WIFOM and I don't really want to go down that route.)

[Snowblaze]

Pretty sure it’s not Menalque/A50. I can’t really see a world where Menalque is perfectly okay to switch his vote from Ydrasse to A50 in 1608, and relies on a case made less than twenty-four hours before deadline. And Montosh did say in his last post that he didn’t think they were partners.

[Snowblaze]

And I don’t think being on the Montosh wagon is a valid reason to scumread either. Menalque started the wagon with a case that must have been pretty reasonable to get five conftown to follow it, and A50 joined it for self-preservation, which is NAI.

[Snowblaze]

@Menalque wagon: do you disagree with my logic that the only likely partner for scum!Menalque is S_S?

(I explained why he’s not partners with A50; Raya, RCE and Ydrasse are all pushing for his elimination today.)

If so, why?

If not, doesn’t it make more sense to eliminate S_S instead of Menalque today?

[Snowblaze]

My hundredth post of the game, and an Unoffical Vote Count (TM):

Menalque 3 (RCEnigma, Ydrasse, Raya36)
Something_Smart 2 (Snowblaze, Almost50)
Ydrasse 2 (Titus, Menalque)
Not voting: Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Something_Smart, Eevee

With eleven alive, it's six to eliminate. Deadline is in about twelve days (can't be bothered to check.)

[Snowblaze]

There has to be at least one scum in (RCE, Raya, S_S) imo, since I don't think it's plausible that any of Menalque/Ydrasse/A50 are partnered with each other.

@everyone: who do you think is most likely scum in those three?

[Snowblaze]

Adding Raya/RCE to my list of improbable teams, although less confident than the others - I don’t think scum vote their partner purely for a wagon like Raya did in 454.

[Snowblaze]

Possible teams with both scum on my day one wagon

RCEnigma/Almost50

Possible Teams with both scum on the Maemuki wagon day one

Something_Smart/Raya36
Ydrasse/Raya36

Possible teams with one scum on each day one wagon

Menalque/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Something_Smart
RCEnigma/Ydrasse
Almost50/Something_Smart

There doesn’t appear to be any pair of eliminations that gives us an auto-win assuming I haven’t ruled out the actual team. The closest I can get is S_S and RCE, and that still loses to Raya/Ydrasse.

[Snowblaze]

Actually, does anyone think there’s a realistic chance that any of the teams I’ve eliminated are the scumteam?

[Snowblaze]

ergh. not feeling up to mafia much today.

@snowblaze: why can't menalque/a50 be the scumteam? if i read it i am blanking right now.

Explained in 1781. Plus I seem to remember Titus’s VCA says it’s impossible, but considering said VCA is advocating your death I can see why you maybe wouldn’t trust it that much.

[Snowblaze]

Hey Snow, what do you think of my A50/Menalque theory?

The post literally above yours is an explanation from me of why I don't think it's likely.

[Snowblaze]

I propose we execute Menalque far before the deadline since nobody seems to be interested in doing anything else. Should anyone agree, I will place my vote. That is, if I am online.

I object to this proposal. Firstly because I think Menalque is town, and secondly because even if you think he's scum we should still be using the time to work out who's scum if he flips town.

[Snowblaze]

Your theory is based on:
- Menalque started a flashwagon away from A50 towards Montosh at the end of day two
- everyone except Menalque and A50 on the Montosh wagon was conftown

Is that right, or am I missing something?

I don't really agree with the logic of "there must be at least one scum on the wagon" - there's no reason why there has to be imo. As for the other part, I'll read back through the last couple of days of day two and get back to you on that.

[Snowblaze]

The A50 wagon picks up with Umlaut, Fredrick and Eevee's votes in 1590, 1591 and 1593 respectively.

The vote count at this point is:
Almost50 4 (Ydrasse, Umlaut, Fredrick A Campbell, Eevee)
Ydrasse 3 (Almost50, Titus, Menalque)
Menalque 2 (Montosh, RCEnigma)
Raya36 1 (Something_Smart)

With approximately two days until deadline.

Menalque is at first non-commital, but switches over to A50. He doesn't post his case on Montosh until the next day, with ~12-18 hours until deadline. Which is an

utterly crazy

move if they're scum partners.

Surely

he would have done something sooner rather than risking that high a chance of just losing?

[Snowblaze]

Only the first point. I see the flaw in saying that scum must be on the wagon therefore must be within the unconfirmed on the wagon.

But I do think there's a chance menalque was desperately trying to get the wagon off of A50

And you don't think he tries to do that an awful lot earlier than he did if he's scum with A50?

[Snowblaze]

maybe i'm biased here because the vote is on me but i don't see the like... coherency in pushing on me here except that i am in the preferred poe for the day and it fits this scenario which doesn't like... work. :v

There's no coherency, really. In a game with so many conftowns I don't have to pull much weight in solving, I just have to make sure I'm decently townread, which I think I am?

I don't know why Snowblaze and A50 are voting me honestly, I should probably go back and look and engage them on that.

Basically a lack of actual reads + wanting to try wagoning as many different people as possible to see who reacts and how. At some point I should read back through people’s ISOs and try and work out where I think my vote should be.

[Snowblaze]

The wagon wasn't really in that bad of a position until close to deadline anyway

Umlaut’s vote for A50, the second on the wagon. occurred at 3:46 am, GMT + 1 on the 30th of July (using my own time zone to avoid getting confused by conversions). It was followed by Fredrick’s at 3:52 am and Eevee’s at 4:32 am.

Menalque posted at 4.40 am, not exactly trying to halt the wagon in its tracks. He voted for A50 at 5:09 am.

His Montosh case was made at 1:51 pm on the same day.

Day two ended at 2:32 am on the 31st, a little while before deadline.

It’s not

impossible

, but imo it’s highly unlikely.

[Snowblaze]

Snow, why is it not ydrasse? Or why is it more important to you to do S_S today?

I’m basically just trying as many different wagons as I can until I get around to actually going back through ISOs to form reads. I have no particular objection to a Ydrasse wagon other than how terrible I’ll feel if she flips town.

(And yes, I will go through ISOs today. I promise.)

[Snowblaze]

But then there’s also the question of “what scum motivation does Menalque have to switch away from the counterwagon to his partner”. Realistically I don’t think there was any chance a Titus elimination would have gone through day one, and... *checks wagon distribution at time of Titus wagon* Mohab was one vote ahead of me at that point, so...

[Snowblaze]

Forcing myself to go through ISOs despite my lack of motivation. Not wallposting though, I’ll just give a simple reads list.

- I’m just going to call Menalque town and be done with it and laugh at myself post-game if I’m wrong.
- I have no clue how to read A50.
- I think there’s precisely one scum in Raya/RCE
- not getting anything from S_S’s ISO on first skim-through
- Ydrasse could be scum but I really don’t want to miseliminate her

VOTE: Raya36 - I think I want to start here.
- progression from townreading Menalque to scumreading him doesn’t add up
- I feel like she was using my argument early day two about whether scum were bussing as “look, conftown said this, it must be right”
- I vaguely remember a few posts that felt like she was shading people and trying to prevent them being townread (can’t be bothered to go through in detail right now.)
- a few people have voiced suspicion but a wagon hasn’t actually got going, so I’m using my “start a wagon and see what happens” strategy.

[Snowblaze]

Snowblaze, we must work as a team! We are here for you!

Why do you think it's not Menalque? Please sell me this!

~Eva

I am very relieved you’re conftown because otherwise my paranoia would be at very high levels right now.

It’s just that if Menalque is scum he’s done some pretty risky things by now (switching away from the counterwagon to his partner) but also some things which he knows will make everyone suspicious (leading two wagons on town, one of which is the counterwagon to scum) and... it just doesn’t make sense for scum to do that, I guess?

(I just realised my argument is looking suspiciously like “too scummy to be scum” which I find pretty ironic considering how this game began!)

[Snowblaze]

I thought a not insubstantial chunk was also that you didn’t think I had many viable partners amongst the other unconfirmeds

That as well, yes.

[Snowblaze]

@Snow: look at Raya's scumgame: viewtopic.php?t=83003&f=54&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

she wallposts and is a lot more rigid

she's freeflowing and natural here - just like in that newbie game you played with her in

i'd be shocked and terrified if she was scum - trust us on this and relocate to someone eles - one of Menalque or Almost50 preferably

~Eve

Thanks for that, I’ll see if I’m awake enough to take it in. And haven’t we established already that I’m not voting for Menalque?

[Snowblaze]

Great. Time to get even more paranoid.

At least we’ll have a scumflip to analyse for tomorrow. That’s something. I promise not to go into lurk mode again.

[Snowblaze]

So, going to tell us who your partner was?

[Snowblaze]

I think my brain has recovered from Menalque’s trolling. Acknowledging that I’ve seen what’s happened, busy with other games, will be around for some (attempts at) solving later.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: S_S/Ydrasse, Day One

Spoiler: S_S/A50, Day One

Brief interaction based on Fredrick’s S_S vote, debating whether it should have been counted in the vote count above.

Spoiler: S_S/RCE, Day One

344 - RCE points out that Sujimichi doesn’t appear in Menalque’s list of possible scum.
470 - RCE jokes about S_S being scum
507 - S_S asks Menalque to explain his RCE case
558 - S_S asks why the Porkens replacement is scum-indicative
613, 616, 624 - S_S townreads RCE based on his unvoting me
- S_S and RCE discuss the plurality elimination system

Spoiler: S_S/Raya, Day One

631 and 633 - Brief discussion of my suspicion of RCE, Raya finding it suspicious and S_S defending me.

Yeah. That’s the problem with having a scum slot not posting for half of day one.

Conclusion: based on their interactions on day one, there is no reason S_S can’t be partnered with any of the four. It is

interesting

that he interacts with RCE significantly more than any of the other unconfirmed. This isn’t the important day wrt interactions, though. Day two will be far more revealing when I eventually get around to it.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: S_S/Ydrasse, Day Two

1260 and 2146- that team is “patently crazy” and a double bus is “insane” - flipped scum
1270 - Ydrasse’s elimination chain features S_S in third after A50 and Menalque
1413 - Ydrasse votes S_S
1437 - reads list with S_S at null, changed vote because of day one wagon dynamics
1460 - Ydrasse asks S_S for a reads list
1473 - S_S votes Ydrasse when the wagons are Menalque 5/Ydrasse 3
1476 - Ydrasse complains about the above
1530 - Ydrasse would vote S_S over RCE
1536 - S_S as a scumread, but not voting there (self-preservation?)
1554 - S_S asking why Raya townreads Ydrasse

I need to look at the precise circumstances surrounding S_S’s Ydrasse vote, and whether he was painted into townreading Menalque at that point, but I don’t think they’re partners based on this.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, S_S gave a reads list with Menalque as second-top town, but that wasn’t until after the Ydrasse vote. He definitely had the option to vote Menalque instead. So he wasn’t forced into the Ydrasse vote, he chose that option.

That just leaves the question of “was it too risky to distance? How likely was that vote to get Ydrasse killed? When and why and how did he switch?”

(Several questions, I know.)

[Snowblaze]

Vote count as of S_S’s Ydrasse vote in 1473:
Menalque 5: Montosh, RCEnigma, Eevee, Fredrick A Campbell, Ydrasse
Ydrasse 4: Almost50, Titus, Menalque, Something_Smart
Something_Smart 1: Raya36
Montosh 1: Umlaut
Not voting: Snowblaze

Fredrick switches from Menalque to S_S, Eevee unvotes Menalque:
Ydrasse 4: Almost50, Titus, Menalque, Something_Smart
Menalque 3: Montosh, RCEnigma, Ydrasse
Something_Smart 2: Raya36, Fredrick A Campbell
Montosh 1: Umlaut
Not voting: Snowblaze, Eevee

And then S_S switches to Raya.

Eevee votes Ydrasse, Raya unvotes S_S, Umlaut votes Ydrasse:

Ydrasse 5: Almost50, Titus, Menalque, Eevee, Umlaut
Menalque 3: Montosh, RCEnigma, Ydrasse
Something_Smart 1: Fredrick A Campbell
Raya36 1: Something_Smart
Not voting: Snowblaze, Raya36

S_S then doesn’t post until much later in the day, while the Montosh wagon is in progress.

(RIP Titus, she could do this properly instead of me making it up as I go along.)

Not *impossible* but unlikely.

Unlikely isn’t good enough for ElLo, though.

(Does it still count as ElLo with seven town and one scum? I mean, we still lose if we eliminate wrongly, so I’m going to call that a yes.)

[Snowblaze]

This probably isn’t the most productive way to do this.

I’m prepared to say that Almost50 is town, because a) he was voting S_S, a wagon supported by conftown (me) yesterday, and b) I can’t see a world where yesterday’s Menalque wagon was all town.

Anyone have strong objections to that view?

[Snowblaze]

Yeah, A50 was the leading wagon for nearly all of early day two and S_S did nothing to stop it. Unless anyone has a very convincing case, I'm okay with calling him town and being done with it.

I need to have a closer look at the S_S wagon day two. Ydrasse and Raya were both voting there at one point iirc.

[Snowblaze]

Day two's S_S wagon never got above two votes, although Ydrasse, Raya, Menalque and Fredrick were all voting there at some point. It was never the largest wagon. I don't think there was ever a point where his partner would have panicked and tried to do something about it.

I've already analysed the day two Ydrasse and A50 wagons. Neither Raya nor RCE were wagoned on day two.

Next step: look through day three Ydrasse/S_S interactions.

[Snowblaze]

I'm really sorry about this, but unavoidable IRL stuff has come up.

I can't even leave you with a solve: I don't know who the last scum is. I'm reasonably confident it's not A50, but beyond that I don't have a clue. Just look very closely at all three remaining players.

Ydrasse was right: this game has been an emotional rollercoaster. I wish more than anything I could ride it to the end.

Eliminate scum for me, and for Titus and Menalque and Montosh. No pressure, though!

Goodbye, good luck and have fun.