Open 794 Pick Your Power X/Y (finished)

[Something_Smart]

Phirst!

[Something_Smart]

I for one think Iconeum is town.

Am I doing this right?

[Something_Smart]

draft positions of 42 scum in 14 PYP games:

1st - xxx
2nd - xxxxx
3rd - xxx
4th - xxx
5th - xxxxxx
6th - xxx
7th - xxx
8th - xxx
9th - xxxxx
10th - xx
11th - x
12th -x
13th - xx
14th - xx

Well now I'm sad that it isn't the statistically most likely team of me/Datisi/Iconuem because what a fun team that would be.

[Something_Smart]

Oh no *Iconeum

I misspelled the name of my locktown hero, now I must commit sudoku

[Something_Smart]

I liked it more that way, idk

[Something_Smart]

Am I gonna have to bring up the

duck

dragon

elephant in the room regarding Hoopla's plan?

The people toward the top of the list are more likely to have PR's. And, uh, PR's are how you win games.

[Something_Smart]

Not really?

Scum PR's are on average way less helpful to them than town PR's are to town.

[Something_Smart]

Especially since they aren't multitasking-- if there's one strong scum PR in the top 5 or so, and they're the last scum alive, they're still gonna have some serious problems. They'll also have to explain away their continued survival.

[Something_Smart]

lolwut

[Something_Smart]

How could it be fake? Do you think I don't really believe that the people at the top of the list are more likely to have PR's?

[Something_Smart]

why did you feel it was important, at that precise moment, to address the flaws in Hoopla's plan?

Because absent any reason to keep my mouth shut, I will address my thoughts on something as soon as I can if I believe they are relevant, and that was the first moment at which it occurred to me to say that.

[Something_Smart]

I'm pretty sure I would have a similar reaction if I thought I was quickhammered on D1.

[Something_Smart]

Mind explaining this post?

I was bemused by the events preceding it.

[Something_Smart]

Now do how you would react to seeing a fake D1 quickhammer when you’re scum.

Something along the lines of "nice try."

[Something_Smart]

and, like, i don't see any indication that anyone was actually seriously on board with Hoopla's plan, a cornerstone of of which was, let's not forget, "we hope scum NK from the bottom upwards"

I'm not talking about the meme post, I'm talking about 67.

[Something_Smart]

Green Crayons accurately ascertained Gypyx was faking a reaction after being fakehammered. Scum are less likely to take that accusatory route given they have no reason to think town!Gypyx is lying there, and no one else had seen his reaction as fake.

good post

[Something_Smart]

you win games by executing scum. allowing scum vigs/PGO's/blockers to roam free because they might be a town PR is a recipe for settling for a low% execution.

Sure, but PR's exist to help with that by identifying scum, clearing players, earning extra mis-executions, and keeping important players alive. Killing town PR's because they have a slightly higher chance of being scum isn't necessarily going to benefit us overall.

[Something_Smart]

in the mean time;

VOTE: something_smart

Just because I disagree with you?

[Something_Smart]

Also, italicizing

might

is pretty disingenuous. According to your stats DrDolittle for instance has a 30% chance of being mafia. That puts him at a 70% chance of being a town PR, and probably a strong one as well.

[Something_Smart]

Redirector I'll grant, but the thing about scum redirector is they kinda have to claim cop. And then pretty soon you have the issue of, well hold on, why hasn't the claimed cop died yet? And they have to keep giving results and if they're the last scum left those results have to be accurate... and meanwhile the redirector shot is only one-use, and it could end up doing nothing.

With 1-shot vig or 1-shot PGO, sure they can get one kill. Getting more than one kill as PGO is quite unlikely, especially since as you said people tend not to target the higher-ups on the list. But when they have to claim, again they will probably have to claim their real slot, and then it's going to be obvious where the second kill came from.

Roleblocker and jailkeeper I will again grant, but again, if it ever becomes obvious that one of these roles interfered in an action, then the person who claimed the flip side of that role is immediately in trouble. And scum near the top can't just not claim their true slot, because odds are someone down below them tried for it and failed, and if they claim VT then it will, again, probably become apparent.

So I'm really not scared of any of those roles. On the other hand, I am scared of killing a town cop, or a town tracker, or a town doctor, or a town vig, or a town universal backup.

[Something_Smart]

anyways, this is probably enough naval-gazing theory pontification from me

what, you don't like watching boats?

[Something_Smart]

trying to parse that makes my head spin but tw's characterization of Hoopla's plan is very unfair.

[Something_Smart]

SS for once hasn't sent me any scum pings which is very rare.

lol

[Something_Smart]

I think S_S' reply looks willfully obtuse.

It was a little willfully obtuse, yes. But I felt like username wasn't saying what he really thought about my post, because "fake" was vague and generic and didn't really make sense in context.

[Something_Smart]

Wrt to the latter quoted line, everyone is focusing on the shitpost and forgetting about the distinctly non-shitposty 67. Though it's obviously not a be-all end-all, it is a serious plan.

[Something_Smart]

me stating my preference for pressuring the singletons first isn't a "plan" - it's just that: my preference.

Fair enough. Point was that people were saying you wanting to kill higher-ups was a joke, when it wasn't.

[Something_Smart]

like on all fronts except literally number chosen

This is, I assume, the front that is being referred to. I too am curious about it.

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla, I don't fully agree with that, but I agree it's a reasonable starting point. The thing is that if we get stronger townreads on some of the tripled players, it weakens the mechanical reason to townread the other. For instance I already agree with tw that Green Crayons is > rand town. This puts me a little lower on word and username than I otherwise would have been.

[Something_Smart]

aorn i think this is remarkably objectively correct.

Actually not quite. It's not the effort that makes it towny; it's the fact that she's making a big show of pushing an unpopular opinion.

[Something_Smart]

but this is a fairly neat observation. i'm not really sure hoops does anything different as scum though really? i don't know her super well. i can understand why this is a positive observation fypov

I'm obviously not sure either. But I'm really struggling to see what scum-Hoopla hopes to gain from this. I don't really think that the smartest way to profit from doubling up as scum is to double up and then drop the stats immediately and announce that scum definitely didn't double-- in particular I thought the part where she announced that a double could only have occurred if she was scum was fairly towny. If she's scum, it doesn't help her if she doubled, and it doesn't help her if she didn't double, and it very well could get her pressured for trying to execute PR's.

[Something_Smart]

I think mech effort is more scum indicative than town indicative.

Frankly, I'm offended :X

[Something_Smart]

@s_s i saw you say you think hoopla's town for pushing unpopular opinion, can i get your take on my tinfoil here

I don't follow it. She hasn't posted the number distribution for town, so there's no justification for a push based on number picked.

[Something_Smart]

you don't follow my train of thought or...? i mean 313 seemed to be starting a push for certain players over others based on draft, no?

But, she's not arguing to use (2), and it's not true that (1) and (3) are direct consequences of (2)-- they include the assumption that scum intentionally avoided doubling up.

[Something_Smart]

well that's my point, (2) seems like the most ~valid~ data point and the fact that it's being somewhat "overlooked" in favour of the other two in this scenario (a lot of small numbers picked, top three in draft being rather large numbers etc) is making me think there may be ~convenient bias~ in which slots she does or doesn't prefer

(2) is statistically meaningless without similar data for town.

[Something_Smart]

feel like one of DDL, S_S, and Datisi gotta be scum enjoying the free conversation generator that is Hoopla's number theory

I don't really follow that. Why are scum looking to start conversations more than town?

[Something_Smart]

^^^ mech/theory is great scum convo material because it allows them to be productive without doing the hard part of making up cases against town

I don't agree with this. We must have a different definition of "productive," because I don't see why scum would try to be productive to the town wincon, and discussing mechanics (usually) isn't productive to the scum wincon.

I also don't think that making up cases against town is really that hard, nor is it necessary as scum if you don't talk about mechanics.

[Something_Smart]

So, LOOKS productive. That's about what I figured you meant.

To whom exactly does discussing mechanics look productive?

[Something_Smart]

I've almost never been told that my mechanics discussion is a good contribution to the game.

I have, however, been told that it's a distraction and a waste of time. Frequently.

[Something_Smart]

I guess I'm not a good person to judge the likelihood of nervous scum who don't know how to approach the thread falling back on mechanics discussion, because mechanics discussion is never a fallback for me.

[Something_Smart]

it's okay, datisi. we all are.

[Something_Smart]

There is something I dislike about that but I'm not sure how much of it is just that the post ends with a vote on Iconeum.

[Something_Smart]

thanks for answering it for me

ewww

[Something_Smart]

Yes. It was a blatant fake hammer because it's unbelievable that you could have gotten that many votes in the five preceding pages and not notice, so I was surprised to see you acting as though it was real.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, according to the statistics, they aren't.

[Something_Smart]

Sure. But the statistics belie an underlying pattern, unlikely to be a coincidence, that would make tripled players less likely scum than doubled ones.

[Something_Smart]

But at the same time, scum doesn't know town numbers, therefore, the odds of having a scum in a trio for instance, is higher than in a duo right?

So pretty sure it balances things out

I can do the math if you want, but I think the bottom line here is just that each townie can collide with 13 other players, and each scum can collide with 11 other players, so scum are less likely to have collisions, and if they do collide, they're less likely to collide with more people.

[Something_Smart]

it's never hypocritical to want to elim scum.

:X

[Something_Smart]

This just seems like a very "I don't care how anyone reads me" entrance.

I think this is something scum-Marquis is good at, in my limited and dated experience

[Something_Smart]

Being overconfident is not cool, kids

[Something_Smart]

So you think wolf them just comes into the thread and makes up some persona and fakes an L-1?

I mean, I imagine if they did it as scum it's because they figured they would do it as town, and not just something they pulled out of their ass.

[Something_Smart]

V/LA till Monday

[Something_Smart]

hello

I have nothing that I want to say before Marquis claims

[Something_Smart]

Hi A50! Somehow your predecessor's wagon cooled down significantly after a hella shady replace-out, but I think (and I doubt I'm alone in this) that you should claim anyway.

[Something_Smart]

Well, we can leash it now.

[Something_Smart]

Redirector would screw us now no matter what; they don't need to know the vig target to redirect the shot.

[Something_Smart]

Using vig early game is generally anti-town, because it's more likely to be used against town than scum.

By this logic executing early game is also anti-town. Using the vig on a scummy player who was likely to get executed anyway is fine.

[Something_Smart]

That we have to eliminate to even hit scum is entirely consistent with saying we shouldn’t use a second kill option early on when the pure numbers of scum:town ratio are not as good as they would be later on (if we don’t elim scum), or before we have a flip to discuss associatives (if we do elim scum).

The first bit is a fallacy (it's not like our odds of killing scum depend on the order in which we use the kills if we assume they are independent), the second bit is valid but I don't really feel that associatives will really help us enough to save that flip for later, considering all the confounding factors (most notably, that A50 himself might be scum and we might get to see his flip sooner if we use his shot sooner). And the associative argument cuts both ways-- if we have two town-controlled kills before D2, we have (roughly) double the chance of having a scumflip to work with by then.

[Something_Smart]

So who are your top vig candidates?

Haven't the foggiest clue. This is why crowdsourcing is good.

[Something_Smart]

Am I the only one that dislikes the idea of a 1-shot vigilante entirely?

Yes. Vig is significantly better than PGO.

[Something_Smart]

Because Marquis was kinda garbage and I didn't want that slot to live very long.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think "I personally want to eliminate this slot" is enough reason for them to claim if they're not about to get yeeted. Do you?

I mean, it's enough for me to want the claim. He didn't have to oblige me without asking for broader support.

[Something_Smart]

even if we don't execute A50 today, i don't think we should try to direct his shot. if he's scum, he can easily ignore the direction if it doesn't suit them, and if he's town, it's better that scum don't know whether they should interfere with his shot or not.

But scum always would want to interfere with it, right? Unless they think A50's aim is so bad that he'll shoot someone who's being townread.

Maybe he'll shoot an important PR, but hey, if we leash him we can make sure to prevent that.

[Something_Smart]

not if they know for a fact that it's targeting town

why not? it's still pro-town to eliminate likely mis-executions down the line.

[Something_Smart]

On top of the redirector there's the possibility of a 1-shot Commuter, a Roleblocker, a Scum Doctor or a JK, all of which can interfere with my shot.

I'm perfectly content to see your shot interfered with by any of these. Remember that for the most part scum PR's have to claim their true role pair, so that combined with interference in a shot is likely going to be outing.

[Something_Smart]

SS remind me does it usually take this long for you to drop a vote

Yes. That's probably the most distinguishing feature of my play

[Something_Smart]

i kinda think they did?

and if not, what are these shady circumstances SS speaks of?

We don't know at which point Marquis last checked the thread; they could have been aware of the pressure, or they could not have. The disappearance under pressure is not assured to be a coincidence, which is part of what makes it shady, but the other part is just that Marquis clearly expressed an intent to get more involved in the game-- and they clearly did not follow through on that intent. So either something drastic happened and they completely forgot about the game, or it was an empty promise and they were just trying to avoid suspicion.

[Something_Smart]

I'm thinking in particular of 682. It sure seems when reading that post that Marquis is acting as though they expect they have a high chance to actually return to the game and close-read it. So either they were town and really expected to get engaged and were wrong, or they were scum and really expected to get engaged and were wrong, or they were scum and just wanted to say something so they didn't appear useless.

[Something_Smart]

logic is that i'm feeling the lynch come anyways so might as well try to do something useful

...When are you gonna get around to that?

[Something_Smart]

Look, when it comes to actually having reads, I can't help you, but if there's a sarcastic quip to be made then by god I will be there.

[Something_Smart]

Note that I still haven't given a read on Gypyx after this.

The answer is that this tips the needle slightly to the town side, but he's still somewhere south of null because I can't really remember anything he's done. I'm pretty surprised by the number of people taking an obvious shenanigan at face value.

[Something_Smart]

congrats, you lied to the town and I will forever want to eliminate you because there's no reason to think that you aren't scum who pulled this to try to look like crafty town

There's the small detail that it doesn't look crafty in the slightest.

[Something_Smart]

punish all perjurers

ditch all deceivers

I'm quite philosophically opposed to stuff like this. I'd rather kill the person with the highest chance of being scum than the person with the highest chance of being bad, and town lies are fairly common (and not necessarily bad!).

Certainly, occasionally dumb townies offer noticeably bad reactions. And occasionally dumb scum do as well; the question is, which is more likely in the particular scenario. I don't think that 999 could have been intended as a real scumclaim; taken at face value, he'd be claiming scum while under the impression he was not hammered and asking people to unvote, which is nonsensical. So it must have been a poorly considered joke/reaction test.

[Something_Smart]

I don't think "doing as scum what you would do as town, even if that's a weird gambit reaction test" is crafty per se, it's kind of the easiest way to play scum. But also-- you said that it was an attempt to LOOK like crafty town, but if he's town, then it doesn't look crafty, it just looks stupid.

[Something_Smart]

Didn't he describe it as "screwing around"? It wasn't a masterfully planned reaction test to trap scum.

[Something_Smart]

We're splitting hairs at this point.

What I meant in 1054 was, if he was trying to look like he was being pro-town with this gambit, he did a really bad job of it, which would have been towny if he'd been aware of it. But I think I do accept your conclusion that he THOUGHT it looked pro-town.

[Something_Smart]

I dont get it
is it bad that i've never gambited on mafiascum.com.net

and everyone and their mothers are gambiting

except when I forcibly included you in a gambit

(no it's not bad, it's not for everyone. It's very easy to gambit badly-- what Gypyx did here is an example.)

[Something_Smart]

For what it's worth, I don't really townread Gypyx, and don't really oppose his wagon, but I oppose it going through this quickly in response to what strikes me as a mostly bad, rather than scummy, play.

[Something_Smart]

I think so?

[Something_Smart]

Gypyx got three votes, putting him at L-2, in two pages following the "slip". That's quick.

[Something_Smart]

Phirst again.

[Something_Smart]

All hail our lord and savior Datisi.

Unless he made the 1000000 IQ play of colliding with his partner and then killing the one person who was arguing that scum would never do that.

[Something_Smart]

The irony here is that that is a really deep and interesting question.

[Something_Smart]

Hoopla kill probably slightly implicates the oldies who would have known to be more afraid of her.

[Something_Smart]

I'm down with getting a claimlaut.

[Something_Smart]

umlautn't

[Something_Smart]

I like today Grumpy Cat a lot more than I liked yesterday Grumpy Cat.

Idk maybe it's just that I'm actually reading his posts but yesterday he was like a PoE null-scum but he's decently towny now.

[Something_Smart]

idk

I just read through the mason PT for mini 2157 and now I'm an official member of the Conftown Datisi Fan Club (also the Regular Datisi Fan Club but I was already in that one) so do whatever you feel is best.

[Something_Smart]

I know, reading your posts is the gravest offense.

But sometimes these things have to be done.

[Something_Smart]

i am really not sure how your takeaway from reading the 2157 mason PT can be "lol do what you feel is best"

Your gambit was brilliant and you got screwed by the setup.

[Something_Smart]

YEAH?? WELL I READ ALL OF YOUR POSTS IN FULL SO TAKE THAT

Ha! I've got you now, Dr. Jones. My posts are so annoying and useless that it's impossible for you to have read them all.

[Something_Smart]

well you probably have enough people willing to vote you to put you at like E+3 or some shit.

[Something_Smart]

Interesting.

I will not say anything until some more people weigh in on what, if anything, we should reveal.

[Something_Smart]

Do you think we should claim which of us has the rolecop/UB slot?

It seems kinda silly to be voting DDL without knowing that.

[Something_Smart]

I'm the rolecop.

I would have bet money you were UB after that hop onto A50 lol

[Something_Smart]

It will be very valuable if we can confirm that DDL took an action last night.

DDL, please crumb your result to the best of your ability. (Crumb, not soft-- you don't need anyone else to figure it out, you just need to be able to point to it later and explain it. Ask Datisi if you need help with this because he is a god at it.)

[Something_Smart]

I do still want to hear DDL explain why he took rolecop, before we talk too much about it.

[Something_Smart]

It's your belief whether I am scum or town, but I'm sure to have investigated someon last night.

Yes, but I don't want scum-you, several days down the road, to claim to have investigated someone who by then has claimed or flipped.

[Something_Smart]

i don't think s_s was saying to crumb your role (it's pretty clear you're a rolecop), but to crumb your results.

Ye

[Something_Smart]

I mean it's up to him whether he should claim his result.

[Something_Smart]

It's mechanically optimal for him to decide depending on what his result is...?

[Something_Smart]

U can ask urself what is the priority roles scum would pick first place
If it aint 1 shot vig, u have ur answer

This is a good point... from my POV, but not yours. How do you know that I'm not scum with the scumteam's first-pick role?

[Something_Smart]

this just in, picking a unibackup or rolecop is unusual for town

It is?

[Something_Smart]

I think Umlaut is a better kill than DDL by almost every metric.

That said Gypyx is probably superior to both.

[Something_Smart]

Also, A50 could have lolhammered Gypyx and fired his shot before dying, and he did not...

[Something_Smart]

Yes. I don't take credit for realizing it.

[Something_Smart]

You don't think they are?

I was literally about to say that word pushing this gives him massive scum equity if DDL/Umlaut are both town.

[Something_Smart]

I think there's huge scum equity in what they're pushing, but I don't think both surviving scum dive into such a bad opinion when it's transparently unpopular. I actually think it's probably +scum for Gypyx more than word.

Where did Gypyx dive into it...? He said it was NAI for Umlaut.

[Something_Smart]

That just reads like confusion to me. And it's justified because the quoted post was confusing.

[Something_Smart]

would scum!Dolittle actually be able to claim UB and get away with it?

Almost surely not? We'd just make him shoot?

[Something_Smart]

i've been mentally crying for the past two days because s_s is s_scaring me

I'm... sorry?

[Something_Smart]

I don't see why fear should enter into the picture. If you think I have decent odds of being scum, then you think I have decent odds of being scum. If you don't, then you don't. If you don't know whether you do or not, then I'm null, and that's not bad to admit.

[Something_Smart]

SS, what is your current position on gypyx?

Scumread.

[Something_Smart]

i give less than 1 fucks about your number pick

This is surprising... why not?

[Something_Smart]

what made you change your mind from D1? IIRC you had gypyx as somewhat of a null?

A50 choosing not to hammer him and then flipping scum vig.

[Something_Smart]

Plot twist: it's you

[Something_Smart]

Ducky might be right that Gypyx/word is too easy, but if Gypyx flips scum I'll probably be focusing on word at least for a little while.

Pedit: speak of the devil!

[Something_Smart]

Shall we yeet him to the shadow realm?

[Something_Smart]

Phirst yet again.

Pedit: DAMN YOU DATISI *shakes fist*

[Something_Smart]

Yeah. Massclaim should put us in autowin or close to it.

I'm thinking about when DDL should claim his results, but since there was no kill last night and Gypyx could have killed N1, there's no way they can clear him, so he should probably go last to try to catch a lie.

[Something_Smart]

And I think what we do is claim role but NOT pick (if VT) starting from the bottom. Then people can go and claim picks; the order doesn't really matter there. Because the people at the top probably can't fakeclaim, lest someone below them tried to take their role.

[Something_Smart]

So like:

word -> Crayons -> user -> Ico -> tw -> Clover -> S_S -> DDL claims results -> Grumpy -> Datisi?

[Something_Smart]

Sorry, wordslot which is now petapan

[Something_Smart]

That VCA does not seem solid enough to outweigh the mechanically correct claim order.

[Something_Smart]

zzz

how much damage can be done if we go out of order? i just wanna be done with this lmao

Probably very little.

I won't be mad at people for claiming out of order, but there's a chance they are just making it harder on all of us by doing so.

[Something_Smart]

That makes a limited amount of sense. Though, with A50 it was a strong player replacing into a lurkslot, so they could have thought that he could turn it around, and with Gypyx, bussing him was basically throwing because it's very likely that this is now unwinnable for scum.

[Something_Smart]

I think it's wordslot. So, yes.

[Something_Smart]

Yeah. I appreciate you replacing in, but there's probably not anything you can do to save your slot.

[Something_Smart]

Probably not.

[Something_Smart]

That seems fine to me.

word -> Crayons -> user -> Ico -> tw -> Clover -> S_S -> DDL claims results -> Grumpy -> Datisi

Ico is up next, unless Datisi thinks he should go later for qualitative reasons.

[Something_Smart]

I agree that it's probably fine. Duckling, you may go ahead.

[Something_Smart]

gypyx trying to plank so that marq/a50 wasn't eliminated makes me feel like i'm right

But A50 had the chance to hammer Gypyx and he didn't...

[Something_Smart]

He should definitely wait until his target claims.

[Something_Smart]

Roleblocker.

[Something_Smart]

Assuming this is what Datisi is talking about.

I thought he meant, why didn't I pick jailkeeper.

[Something_Smart]

I believe my target last night is also very obvious.

[Something_Smart]

Now that I'm at my computer I can elaborate a bit on why I picked roleblocker, because I'm sure people are curious.

First. In looking at previous games, roleblocker seemed to be the most common scum role. This isn't really a surprise, as they get the double whammy of having a strong role and knowing there isn't a doc. So immediately, if I'm looking to deny scum PR's, this is the slot I want.

Second. Let's assume for a second that scum did go for a roleblocker and didn't get it. They are, naturally, going to assume that there is a doctor. This is going to lead them to make kills that a doctor wouldn't protect-- Hoopla being a good example of this. Strong player, sure, but not very high up in the draft and not super obvtown or anything. And even if they don't try for roleblocker and fail, it's a pretty safe bet for them that there is in fact a doctor, which means that part of the power of the doctor is just in scum THINKING there's a doctor, whether or not there actually is.

Third. Roleblocker is not a weak role for town! Especially in a setup like this, where scum are not multitasking, and it's easy to spot the players who are unlikely to be PR's. If we figure that probably a vanilla will be making most of the kills, and I target a player who's likely vanilla, then I have pretty decent odds of stopping the kill even before two scum are dead, and of course once two scum are dead it is a stronger role than cop.

[Something_Smart]

also if s_s is around he should confirm who he targeted i guess.

N1 Grumpy Cat
N2 petapan

[Something_Smart]

Yes you are.

And I'm a bit confused by why you thought there was a doctor with a save after I confirmed there definitely wasn't a doctor in the game. I was figuring that a JK was the likeliest explanation for petapan not being scum... but if we have a JK too, we've definitely won.

[Something_Smart]

i asked two "am i..." questions in that post that are contradictory and i'm not sure which one you're replying to

That's what you get for asking contradictory questions. Yes to the first one. I doubt that was a no-kill; that said, we will presumably be finding out, so it doesn't really matter.

[Something_Smart]

still dumb because by all reason s_s was the sensible shot last night i think unless they were scared of protectives? hell idk

I mean if you're town, there's probably a JK. So the scum were right to fear a protective, and it's possible they did shoot at me and the JK blocked them.

[Something_Smart]

spicey

so we have
yes {Clover, petapan}
literally throwing if scum {Datisi, S_S, Grumpy Cat}
no {DDL, Umlaut, tw, username, Crayons, Ico}

so we just execute someone in no and then leash each of me, Datisi, Grumpy to a different target in no. we should be able to autowin and then some; Datisi being scum is the only scenario where this is not ENTIRELY clear but I think it still is.

[Something_Smart]

Not convinced S_S is cleared but certainly think he’s a late game elim if we leash per grump target.

I don't have to be; if I'm scum, I have to keep clearing people and I'll eventually run out of people to clear.

[Something_Smart]

Currently: {3 cleared} {Datisi, S_S alive} {6 uncleared} -> Execute uncleared, RB an uncleared, Datisi is killed
{4 cleared} {S_S} {4 uncleared} -> Execute uncleared, RB uncleared, cleared is killed
{4 cleared} {S_S} {2 uncleared} -> At this point, there are enough executions to kill everyone including me.

If I ever stop killing then we can just burn through the uncleared and hit me last; that does me no good.

[Something_Smart]

Similar logic holds for Datisi, except it actually happens faster because he and I both get a clear tonight even if he kills me.

[Something_Smart]

And this is all assuming that Grumpy successfully neighborizes while a kill happens; if he isn't able to, then obviously we kill him instead.

[Something_Smart]

Ideally we can just demonstrate this clearly and then whoever is scum can accept it and concede.

Did DDL ever claim his N1?

[Something_Smart]

hi ducky can you concede if you are scum pls and ty

[Something_Smart]

Buy me dinner first :3

We don't need to do that at all. Scum will have to kill me and if I'm scum then I'll have to clear so many people that I won't have a chance.

[Something_Smart]

Datisi probably shouldn't target the same person as Grumpy, just to keep things as clean as possible.

[Something_Smart]

Or maybe cop and then play nightless lol y’all about horrible

Skipping kills accomplishes nothing, though, because we can just vote out all the unconfirmed people. By that point we'll have 4, that's plenty to win if scum make it nightless.

[Something_Smart]

pedit: pls don't talk about optimal scum Strat I don't think they've found it yet

okay if you see a way that scum can dodge the autowin that we haven't noticed, then at the very least, say so (even if you don't say what it is). because otherwise this post reads like a cheeky scumclaim

[Something_Smart]

Also why are you posting as if Umlaut is a JK...?

Did I step into an alternate universe or something

[Something_Smart]

I see a way scum can lower the odds of town autowin

This is a big deal if it exists

As far as I can tell the odds are 100%...

[Something_Smart]

Damn, sorry. It seemed like Datisi had suffered enough waiting for me to claim, I didn't want to put him through that again.

I can confirm Umlaut is jailkeeper though. He told me in the PT he wasn't planning on claiming it yet, but guess he changed his mind.

That's obviously a joke though, since Umlaut three posts later made a role list with himself listed as vanilla?

[Something_Smart]

Okay let me walk through this

We have two 100% confirmed town players right now: Clover Ebi and petapan.

We have three relevant PR claims: Datisi as Cop, Something_Smart as Roleblocker, Grumpy Cat as Neighborizer.

We have six unconfirmed players, whose PR's are irrelevant: DrDolittle, Umlaut, iamausername, Iconeum, the worst, and Green Crayons.

We execute someone in the unconfirmed group, then me, Datisi, and Grumpy Cat each target a different player in that group. If there is any kill, my target is confirmed town, as is Grumpy Cat assuming his target confirms the neighborize. If Datisi dies, I will roleblock someone else in that group the next night, adding another confirmed town player; if I die, then Datisi's target will also be confirmed town (or confirmed scum, of course). This adds up to a total of five conftown or soon-to-be conftown players alive on Day 4, with only 4 non-conftown players, which means we can just execute all the non-conftown players one by one.

If the scum is me or Datisi, then we will have to continue to conftown players until they outnumber the non-conftown players, which should happen on Day 5. No-killing never helps scum as we just execute a non-conftown and then go back to night in the exact same spot except with one fewer confirmed player.

Are you saying something here is wrong??

[Something_Smart]

assuming town didn't lie

does that conftown like all of green/username/drd or am i stupid
please tell me i'm stupid

you are not stupid

[Something_Smart]

Well I assume what peta meant was that Clover could be N3 vig/vengeful who gambited. We should double check with him to rule out that possibility.

[Something_Smart]

I've been softing it with the delicacy of a hand grenade and I don't think anyone noticed :'(

that's because asking to be blocked when your action if unblocked would confirm you as town is weird

[Something_Smart]

like now we can upgrade our Standard Autowin™ plan to a Super Deluxe Autowin™ where the duckling shoots in the unconfirmed and he clears himself unless scum holster.

[Something_Smart]

I was low-key hoping you'd pick up that I was signalling thinking very carefully about night actions despite the fact normal duck slips into a coma around this point of the game. It's ok, I'm not as smooth as I thought I was

I mean it looked like you were softing something but I couldn't imagine what you would be softing that would be harmful for you to come out and say :X

[Something_Smart]

ok so tldr is we execute one of {no} and then me/s_s/duck/cat all target a different {no}

did i get that right

yes

ss targets me because we don't actually really want me to successfully kill anyone

no

you know scum aren't multitasking right? so if there are two kills it confirms you as town.

[Something_Smart]

I mean, that works as well. Almost anything will work at this point.

[Something_Smart]

like, if i have to be executed at some point, sure, but it’s +EV to work through unconfirmed VT claims first, right?

it's not +EV because the EV is 100% in either case. but it increases the margin of error we have in case something catastrophic happens.

[Something_Smart]

ok imma just fill in some names instead of going "pick a random player from group B" or whatever. y'all can feel free to change the names around, just make sure everyone is clear on the plan that we are going with.

The Plan

we will execute

Iconeum

today
I will RB

the worst

Datisi will investigate

DrDolittle

Grumpy Cat will neighborize

Green Crayons

the worst will attempt to shoot

Umlaut

. this should fail.

DrDolittle and iamausername may do whatever they would like.

Tomorrow, assuming there is a death, we will execute

Umlaut

. If I'm still alive, I will RB

DrDolittle

.

Then, assuming I am killed (if I was still alive), we execute

Green Crayons

and

iamausername

in either order.

If Datisi or I continue to survive, we keep targeting in the unconfirmed players, until eventually that person gets killed or that person is the only unconfirmed player left. If scum stop killing, then we just continue with the plan anyway, killing unconfirmed players.

[Something_Smart]

I was very tempted to claim cop for Datisi because I saw the soft early. But, we're in auto win woohoo! I'm not really good at the whole mechinal part but if scum can't multi task why are we roleblocking our n3 vig?

Because tw wants to and it's still autowin so I don't really care to argue the specifics. His reasoning is that it would confirm both him and me at the same time, and it's not like his shot going through gains us a mis-exe because we're already on odds.

[Something_Smart]

on the contrary, the n3 vig/venge bracket seems to be really underappreciated ;^;

isn't that the slot that like half the game picked when you ran this setup?

[Something_Smart]

Yep. Long story short, Datisi is a god, and I'm a bumble who almost fake guiltied a townie, and with our powers combined we can clear half the town or something like that.

[Something_Smart]

By the way DDL, did you ever claim your N1 result?

[Something_Smart]

can you explain this?

Gypyx was the likely D2 execution. In the world where he was scum, we were going to be in great shape anyway, and in the world where he was town, Grumpy Cat being the person who collided with him had an increased chance of being scum. And he was low enough down that he was

probably

vanilla (lol unibackup collisions), or at least probably not an important PR.

[Something_Smart]

It's not necessary. I will have to be killed by scum, or I will continue to clear players indefinitely.

Though, there are plenty of winning plans, so all you have to do is read the one we have, and make sure that you agree that it's sound.

[Something_Smart]

I mean I'm still assuming that the scum will just concede once the autowin sinks in.

[Something_Smart]

if i were scum here I'd probably be taking the piss and going all the way

why are people saying this, it makes me sad

first ducky and now you admitting that you would basically waste everyone's time for... no reason, really, except maybe pride :/

There is no shame in conceding. Quite the opposite, actually; it's the mature and respectful thing to do here.

[Something_Smart]

yes you are :3

[Something_Smart]

No.

I am going to grant that if I were scum I probably wouldn't be conceding until I saw evidence of the town creating and following a breaking strategy, and I probably wouldn't be giving them as much help as I am now. But given that I'm not scum, and I'm the one helping to organize the breaking strategy, that logic doesn't really apply to anyone else.

[Something_Smart]

=> try to go down in a hilarious blaze of glory

this is what I thought you were doing when you were softing to me that you wanted me to RB you, I'm not gonna lie :X

[Something_Smart]

I will only be clear if a kill (on non-Umlaut) goes through, because tw's shot will fail proving that I RB'd him, and scum aren't multitasking.

[Something_Smart]

SS look, a way to not flip the slot has been found

yes, I got it :3

though arguably that was still a flip, just one that left the slot alive.

[Something_Smart]

so you are saying i have a chance if i shoot umlaut tonight?

no because then you'll just be narrowing down our execution pool while leaving both of the dangerous investigatives alive.

in fact you in particular would lose on the spot since Datisi is going to check you.

[Something_Smart]

Is that a cheeky confession DDL

[Something_Smart]

you conceding mr. dragon?

#Town!Ico.never.does.that.

[Something_Smart]

you guys are sure this is auto, right?

pretty damn sure. lack of multitasking really ties scum's hands.

[Something_Smart]

Phyrste.

[Something_Smart]

I'm sorry. But literally the only wrong thing we can do there is argue about the plan. I chose Ico because several people had suggested they wanted to kill him.

Like the only thing it did was maybe lengthen the game a bit. But if you want to complain about the game being lengthened you should talk to the guy who didn't concede~

VOTE: DrDoodoo

[Something_Smart]

Whoa, I totally failed to realize that this setup used a non-standard neighborizer variant. That's weird.

[Something_Smart]

Did I mention that I love you

[Something_Smart]

I don't really think it was, because even if Datisi hadn't checked word, then we'd be in the same spot after executing word, but with one fewer scummy player (and one more cop check).

[Something_Smart]

That seems perfectly fine dave, it really isn't a tweak so much as a time-saver.