Mini Normal 2157 | Over

[VP Baltar]

Datisi (and Aldus I guess) - thoughts on a (Tess, Ico, Andres) grouping?

Andres is probably my least certain in that group. But as I said before, there's obv been scum theater somewhere this game because nothing fits perfectly

[VP Baltar]

Actually, NPOM might fit pretty well in that grouping. He's also been qualifying his vote. "If so and so votes Tess, I will...."

"I'll bus if I have to...."

[VP Baltar]

@baltar, i dunno......... i'm not...... scumreading ico..... i get i'm wrong somewhere and i hate it
lemme take a look hold on

I don't have a particularly strong scum read there either. It's more just me pulling back trying to look for combinations that fit. NPOM is a reasonable sub there the more I think about it.

That being said, you have the most interaction with Ico and I trust you. Just don't want a pocketing thing to cost us the game because most people are trusting your vouch for Ico.

[VP Baltar]

Page 120: Some persuasive analysis from VPB and Andres about Testarossa actually. Now I'm see-sawing back to Testarosscum a bit lol. Though, I'd be interested in knowing who they'd pick for Testa's scumpartners + their analysis of Testa's wagon.

I was gonna wait until I had more but I saw VPB post so now I want to know how he'd answer the above

VPB did u miss this

See my above post for who I think could be her partners rn.

I'm on my phone atm and about to start my work day, so not in a position to go vote by vote looking at her wagon. I can do that later.

I do think it's notable she hasn't received real pressure since D1 except from Koba

[VP Baltar]

That being said, you have the most interaction with Ico and I trust you. Just don't want a pocketing thing to cost us the game because most people are trusting your vouch for Ico.

:////

i know. ugh. i know. nO PrEsSuRe. i looked at tess on d2 and it's like... you're saying things that are true but i just don't know how much they make tess scum. like in a way i can relate to the feeling of "everyone is pushing for bob and it's obvious he needs to flip but i really don't believe in this flip"

Idk. That's a very scummy mindset though isn't it? Scum are the ones that benefit from letting a town elim go through with no real counter. I'm not saying I would expect Tess to White Knight Bob, but to not push an alternative you think was better? I have hard time getting into that mindset from a town perspective

[VP Baltar]

You still voted people though. It's not really the same imo. You weren't avoiding being on a wagon at all

[VP Baltar]

Case in point, I credit you with the janko wagon. Didn't work out, but you fought a snow wagon with something else

[VP Baltar]

Plus, Tess D2 goes from bloodlust for Billy to like a null read on him. That also fits with this theory that scum rolecopped Billy N1

[VP Baltar]

If NPOM is scum, he's genius because he can literally do anything and people be like "Oh, NPOM *lovingly disapproving look*"

[VP Baltar]

That's me basically

[VP Baltar]

also seeing koba complaining about no flip makes me think they didn't do the ~self obvtown case~ i asked so if that could be done that is lovely

koba why were you complaining about me not being here when you're not reading my posts anyway

Oh shit, call out culture!

[VP Baltar]

Deadline: 2 days, 11 hours, 49 minutes.

Hellbrooks and Datisi, we don't have a lot of time left. If there is a good Aldus case, please make it. Convince me if that's the right move (or elsewhere if you think that's better). I think I've outlined some clear points for Tess, and as far as I can tell, this wagon is people you both mostly consider town.

[VP Baltar]

the more the day is going the more i'm growing uncertain about koba, thanks for asking

I can understand that. I guess what I'm looking for is more communication so the town bloc can arrive at a consensus.

[VP Baltar]

Koba, if you're town, do the work here.

[VP Baltar]

Datisi, can you explain the succinct Aldus case though. You seem to be playing a lot on gut and that does concern me.

[VP Baltar]

Hey Andres, what do you think of Tess' progression on Billy?

I’ll look into this tonight.

You probably got busy, but I still would like this when you have a moment

[VP Baltar]

Datisi, can you explain the succinct Aldus case though. You seem to be playing a lot on gut and that does concern me.

what do you mean by concern you btw? i'm assuming it's not concerning you about my alignment...

i dunno. he's always kinda ~in the background~, reads/positioning on wagons looks convenient, the bob!town/npom!scum post i spoke so much about, and the PoE is getting kinda tight and he's not exactly on top?

No, not concerned about your alignment at all.

It's more that I see this game as being entirely in your hands. I trust you, but there is a lot riding on a gut call.

I can maybe see where you are coming from on the convenient call of Bob town. We don't know NPOM's alignment, so that's a bit of speculating. And the PoE is what it is, that applies to all the non confirmed towns.

From my perspective, it feels thinner than the points against Tess. Does that make sense?

[VP Baltar]

It's more that I see this game as being entirely in your hands. I trust you, but there is a lot riding on a gut call.

i know, i know, i don't particularly enjoy this position either. but historically, i've so many times had Correct gut reads, which i then ended up logicing out of and being stupid. and it's like, i guess being right about the bob wagon is giving me more willingness to follow gut than it's due. maybe.

I guess that's why I'm trying to come to a consensus with you and hellbrooks on someone the three of us can mostly agree on. I think that's the least likely to miselim.

What about an NPOM yeet?

[VP Baltar]

Or Andres?

[VP Baltar]

What about an NPOM yeet?

that's like... my "chaotic anti-town townie that vultures are circling around and at some point will definitely start being pushed by scum" read...

someone did a metadive of him, right? testa, was it you? does he act like this as scum too?

My thought on NPOM is we either yeet him now or just stamp him town. The miasma of anti-townness is always going to swirl and is exploitable by scum in a LyLo situation if he does happen to be town

[VP Baltar]

I'm not sure any town flip helps us at this point. There are certain town flips that are less damaging (maybe something like NPOM>Tess>Andres>Aldus>Koba), but the ideal goal is to hit a scum today and help sort the POE. From my perspective, a Tess scum flip is pretty informative and I feel less WIFOMy about their play like I do with NPOM.

If Aldus flips, I'm not 100% I'd know who his partners were. Maybe Koba I suppose?

[VP Baltar]

Interesting. You think they both might be scum here?

[VP Baltar]

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits exactly with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

Ok, so you see what I see there.

Did you skip tests when you were doing your reread?

[VP Baltar]

Im afraid of the scenario where aldus flips town. Why would i as scum narrow my scumpool like this??? Look at ppl trying to ml npom like ffs

This isn't a terrible point in a scum!Koba and town!NPOM scenario, I can't really see Koba avoiding that yeet

[VP Baltar]

scum!koba wouldn't be the only scum though...

pedit: @baltar

Right, but Koba is literally out here stanning for NPOM. Even your or I are not doing that. If I was scum, that seems like an easy can to kick over to get into lylo.

[VP Baltar]

Saying, "I'd be fine for either." If Test and NPOM are both town, there'd be no difference.

[VP Baltar]

/shrug, i don't see that as really clearing. individual scum will take strong stances townreading townies sometimes.

I mean, yeah it's not clearing, just what I think is the likely scenario with a scum in that position.

I feel like you feel more strongly Koba is scum than Aldus, lol

[VP Baltar]

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits exactly with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

Ok, so you see what I see there.

Did you skip tests when you were doing your reread?

No I didn’t, but I specifically ISO’ed Testa, and it’s easier to see the evolution when doing that. At first I just wanted to read everybody and see what I felt about all the slots and how they might make sense together.

I guess I was just confused because you came at me hard over the Billy stuff, but testa kind of got a pass on it.

[VP Baltar]

At least we are starting to generate some activity today. My biggest fear is we just stop posting and end on a compromise because of deadline.

[VP Baltar]

At least we are starting to generate some activity today. My biggest fear is we just stop posting and end on a compromise because of deadline.

He said to himself....

[VP Baltar]

Koba, I do think it's on you to win Datisi over. We know dats is town. Show us that townie self

[VP Baltar]

I'm sad that the Andres and NPOW wagons dried up. I'm definitely willing to vote Testarossa but I'm also considering that my own elimination might be better in the long run.

OMG IS THERE A CARBON MONOXIDE LEAK IN THIS GAME.

Literally everyone who is not obvtown is like giving up. Town players, you actually need to try here!

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE:

Can we please get our shit together. We can solve this by tomorrow if the town players come together.

[VP Baltar]

I'm going to clean slate and look at everyone again

[VP Baltar]

I can't really go over stuff fully until tomorrow, but I will reassess my own biases before then.

[VP Baltar]

If Koba won't do the work, I will.

FAIR AND BALANCED ANALYSIS OF KOBA INCOMING TOMORROW

[VP Baltar]

on god do u think scum!me doesnt just cc u???

Suicide bomber here.

[VP Baltar]

Koba, can you link me a strong scum game and a weak scum game you had?

[VP Baltar]

Ok, thanks. I'll make do

[VP Baltar]

This is going to go down to the wire isn’t it?

Seems that way. You going to do any more playing or are you set in Aldus?

[VP Baltar]

Having said that, Testa’s evolution on Billy fits exactly with what you would expect from Scum that are trying to move away from a SR on Billy after figuring out that they were Town Tracker, and wanted to avoid suspicion. I’m not going to lie.

Ok, so you see what I see there.

Did you skip tests when you were doing your reread?

No I didn’t, but I specifically ISO’ed Testa, and it’s easier to see the evolution when doing that. At first I just wanted to read everybody and see what I felt about all the slots and how they might make sense together.

I guess I was just confused because you came at me hard over the Billy stuff, but testa kind of got a pass on it.

Why did you come after me and not testa?

[VP Baltar]

So how much of the conclusions of your reread is based on Bob's reads? 80%? 70%?

[VP Baltar]

Ok, did some first pass rereading of Koba in this game last night and looking at their voting.

I think there is a mixed bag here. I really don't like that they weren't on a wagon D1, but at the same time, their constant shifting of votes and willingness to fight anybody in thread feels pretty townie. There is also a willingness to flop onto a new path of inquiry at a moment's notice that feels transparent, and probably contributing to my town read.

I also want to see if Koba posts while drinking as scum. Now, they might do that as either alignment, but I'm usually less inclined to do that as scum for fear of making a bad point that draws attention to you. Koba's eagerness to engage with people while online to the point of heckling people who post to get engagement seems town like as well. Of course, Koba has also admitted to a certain self-sacrifice approach as scum. So I will report back when I look at their scum games today.

[VP Baltar]

Bob’s opinions have an influence but my conclusions are all my own.

I mean, you called him and Billy like the smartest towns ever, so it seemed like more than influence.

What are your thoughts on Koba again?

[VP Baltar]

Anyway, see 2537.

So which of Koba and NPOM do you think is more likely scum?

When you say Koba has been "responsible for a lot of bad pushes," who do you mean specifically?

[VP Baltar]

Hellbrooks, what's the latest you'll be on today?

[VP Baltar]

did y'all know this is the first game in my mafiascum career that i'm avoiding and that i am town in

wild huh

how painful are the last 3 pages?

Staring Andres NPOM fight

[VP Baltar]

probably midnight EST

Ok, I'll finish probably no later than 9pm EST. Tests is still a good vote as of this point for me

[VP Baltar]

aldu if u vote testa ill tr u for free

lol i'll take what I can get

VOTE: Testarossa

this feels scummy

Both their votes on each other feel scummy because they both want to save their bacon. I'm having a hard time assessing alignment front their votes alone

[VP Baltar]

*from their votes alone

[VP Baltar]

is it likely that scum!testa was being bussed as a counterwagon to town!snow?

My sense after reading D1 again was that the Tests wagon was an uphill climb. Idk if there was really enough support to make it happen. Scum could have briefly parked a vote there waiting to see if snow/Bob happened. Good way to set up late game towncred if scum!testa

[VP Baltar]

Alright, here is my takeaway from reading Koba in their scum games:

1) the drunk posting thing is null. They do it as either alignment, so shrug.
2) Koba is at least personally aware of their playstyle, so some meta manipulation is a possibility.
3) Koba is actually kind of defensive and over explains as scum compared to a more general looseness I see in this game. As I said before Koba seems ready to fight anyone, even widely read townies. That's not a trait I saw in their scum games.

Koba seems smart enough to change styles between scum draws, but the over explaining part is a hard thing to ditch as scum because you're always going to read the pressure as greater than it is.

Hellbrooks seems to have experience with scumKoba, so curious what she thinks of this meta read.

[VP Baltar]

VOTE: testarossa

I feel pretty comfortable putting my vote back here now. I really don't see koba scum. The likelihood of either Aldus or Testa being scum seems strong, and testa has scummier actual behaviors imo. Not loving the desperation of Aldus' vote, but unless he is scum with NPOM or Koba, this wagon seems very town comprised. (And it's hard to see either combo given my town reads on those slots.)

[VP Baltar]

instantly is an exaggeration but yeah dont remember anything of koba in that game

Is there another hellbrooks? Thought I saw you in nomination mafia where Koba was scum

[VP Baltar]

And I think that is L-1. Didn't want to leave us in a position of no elim today

[VP Baltar]

Got you got you. Things you don't catch ISOing people for tone and posting style

[VP Baltar]

I mean, we have a full day still. We can take more time if needed. Just feels to me like there is a case on testa and a gut on aldus. I'll be dead tomorrow or I'd offer to just cop Aldus and sort it. Wish we had a doc

[VP Baltar]

Hellbrooks, no hesitation. Straight baller

[VP Baltar]

I was asleep, Ico! This game is like completely opposite activity from me.

Anyhow, Koba has a PT and scum keeping me alive as a last miselim is hilariously stupid.

VOTE: Koba

Team is almost certainly Aldus-NPOM-Koba I think.

[VP Baltar]

we only lose in the scenario where vp is scum

which is so unlikely

Hence the hilarious stupidity. I appreciate the WIFOM risk scum took.

[VP Baltar]

and scum do NOT have 2 power roles

VP could be a goon

How would I have known you had a PT then? Lucky guess?

I just delivered us the game after my role was completely ruined D2. No respect around here!

[VP Baltar]

VP, what made you decide to investigate koba exactly?

I figured I was dead, so I decided I should moonshot and try to figure out the hardest scum to find. I had kind of settled on NPOM-Aldus as a likely pair after the Testa flip. That left you, Koba, Andres. I felt a little better about Andres after going kind of hard at him yesterday. You have been pretty solidly in my townpile most of the game. So that left Koba. I didn't have a particularly strong scum read there, but there was the weird softclaim yesterday, and SOMEONE had to be the third scum. I didn't think I'd still be here, so felt like a risk worth taking, if only so I could dish to the dead thread.

[VP Baltar]

I don’t understand why VPB is still alive.

Seems like a bad play. My guess is scum figured they'd get PoE'd if this went another day or 2. Me being alive today is obvious miselim bait meant to end the game on the first day of Xylo.

[VP Baltar]

I don’t understand why VPB is still alive.

Seems like a bad play. My guess is scum figured they'd get PoE'd if this went another day or 2. Me being alive today is obvious miselim bait meant to end the game on the first day of Xylo.

Yeah but the easiest way to fight it is by eliminating Scum outside of your guilty. The wagon that formed on Alduskkel was pure. Anybody that has half a brain cell can see that clearly. And a counter wagon on Town formed that also formed almost identically on me. I understand the urge here to go for the red check, I do. But what my gut is telling me is that Aldus is a far better execution.

I get that from your perspective if you're town, but there is a non-zero chance you or Ico *could* be scum. I have a guaranteed guilty here. Koba is the correct elimination.

[VP Baltar]

I agree that Scum could have decided to keep you alive for the WIFOM. It’s possible. But it is also mighty convenient.

Listen if you’re still peddling the notion that Ico or I could be Scum, then I don’t know what to tell you. Alduskkel

is

Scum. It’s obvious. Testa never comes up as an alternative otherwise.

If you're peddling that you're more town then me, you're wrong. We're not yeeting off a confirmed guilty in Xylo. EVER.

Objective confirmed towniness goes: hellbrooks>VP>Ico>>>>>>everyone else

[VP Baltar]

I just wke up and i close and then open tomorrow morning work wise but I WILL give this game my all if possible. I have not read anything yet just wanteed to put that post i drafted out there.

This doesn't seem fake at all

[VP Baltar]

And seriously, why should I ignore my gut just because you conveniently come out with a guilty in ELo?

Stop being egotistical. Your gut is not better than my proven PT cop ability, nor are you more town than me just because you weren't on the testa wagon.

I have a confirmed guilty. I'd have to be a mind reader as scum to get to this position faking it. Koba is the elimination.

[VP Baltar]

b) vp is conf scum(to me)

Not voting me.

Your scum is slipping

[VP Baltar]

i was afraid u were just tunneling me as town? lmao i forgot i didn't vote you now u happy?

You said you were going to vote me within 24 hours, but I'm confirmed scum.

Also, you were worried I'm tunneling town even though I have a guilty on you.

This is all soft peddle nonsense that doesn't make a lick of sense.

[VP Baltar]

i was afraid u were just tunneling me as town? lmao i forgot i didn't vote you now u happy?

You said you were going to vote me within 24 hours, but I'm confirmed scum.

Also, you were worried I'm tunneling town even though I have a guilty on you.

This is all soft peddle nonsense that doesn't make a lick of sense.

its ok even if we wanna discard that you're still left with plenty of arguments why this situation never makes sense with scum!koba <3

You self metaing as to why this situation makes no sense is ... not a good point at all.

[VP Baltar]

I have to go to work now, but I'll check back this afternoon.

The choice here is clear. You either vote me or Koba. There's no way we are both town.

We both have a vote on us and there hasn't been an auto hammer. That means one of us is absolutely scum.

I have a confirmed guilty on them with a proven PT ability, and they have self-meta WIFOM. We are going 1v1 today, end of story.

[VP Baltar]

Lol the scum flailing today after having a run of miseliminations is hilarious.

[VP Baltar]

CONFIRMED GUILTY

If you don't believe it, then flip me and lose this game. I really cannot even deal with people not getting how simple this is. You either think I'm scum or I have a guilty. The cross votes prove it.

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE:

I’m made myself abundantly clear. I’ll let others chime in here.

Dude, if you're town, stop just fucking voting willy nilly. One wrong vote and this get could be over if scum are online. Jesus.

[VP Baltar]

UNVOTE:

I’m made myself abundantly clear. I’ll let others chime in here.

Dude, if you're town, stop just fucking voting willy nilly. One wrong vote and this get could be over if scum are online. Jesus.

Both votes are identical in impact today. I’m gambling the game on Ico being Town. And if that’s the choice, then either NPOM or Aldus are correct executions and they are both identical as choices outside of what my read might be. And this isn’t going to change. Ico probably has a stronger feeling that NPOM is Scum over Aldus. Well, guess what, I’m fine with that. This isn’t voting willy nilly. It’s just the obvious conclusion from where I sit. And the good thing is that I can’t screw it up.

I'm not even saying I disagree with you necessarily, but you do understand if you happen to be wrong, we lose. It's not worth gambling the whole game, imo.

Let hellbrooks and Ico say their piece and vote. Then you can vote wherever. I'm not really trying to butt heads with you today, because I do think you're town. I just don't think we need reckless behavior

[VP Baltar]

I don’t bus my teammate outside of the 50/50 here ever agreed?

I think that would be unlikely yes.

I still think it makes the most sense to eliminate someone I KNOW is scum. I don't think you honestly believe I'm scum here, even though I understand having legit suspicion on me being alive. That was literally the scum's intent.

I'm a bird in hand type person. Flip Koba, flip Aldus, see where PoE puts us. That's the optimal strategy

[VP Baltar]

There's tons of WIFOM here though with your vote. I can't go over again and again why 1) my role has been confirmed 2) it makes no sense balance wise for scum to have a PT cop and a rolecop.

There is literally no world where that is a logical setup. I know you said you know nothing about setup balance, but clearly Datisi, Ico and I do.

Anyhow, you do you.

[VP Baltar]

[jk no i wont.. just keeping u on ur toes]

Andres and I yelling over here and hellbrooks just having the time of her life.

[VP Baltar]

There isn’t a whole lot of WIFOM. It’s the same thing as your guilty. Now I practically have a guilty myself. If the vote continues to sit out for a while, then my situation approaches yours. Except, the odds of winning the game improve quite a bit by correctly deciding between me and Aldus. And I challenge you to find another situation where someone in my position would publicly confirm themselves as Scum only to delay the death of a Partner.

It's Xylo. you "publicly confirming" yourself is zero risk if it ends in a miselimination.

[VP Baltar]

koba what's your explanation for why VP had a false positive on me D3

Rolecop

This is further backed up by the fact billy died over datisi n2

Why did I not just claim role cop if I was scum faking results? Claiming a fake PT cop makes no sense D2...unless you're with Andres that I'm scum PT cop.

[VP Baltar]

quick Q for u VP, if i turned aroudn and said "lets vote aldus" how would you feel

I mean,I'm not going to say don't do it. I think it's still a relatively safe bet. It just seems like why take a 2% risk when you could have a 100% guarantee.

It's suboptimal, but I think I've made the reasoning why clear.

[VP Baltar]

koba how would YOU feel if i decided to vote aldus

Well not happy likely. I think they have the 2nd highest town equity here

You think Aldus is town?

[VP Baltar]

This day has become WIFOM central. Here are basically the only facts anyone should be troubling themselves with:

1) VP has was forced to reveal he is a PT Cop in a gambit by Datisi, who claimed loyal neighborizer rather than tracker.
2) VP truthfully noted he visited George Bailey. (confirmed by hidden Billy track)
2) We believe scum have a rolecop and that's how they found Billy. That makes it extremely unlikely scum also have a PT cop.
3) VP has proven he is a PT cop by getting a false positive on hellbrooks.
4) VP has claimed a guilty on Koba.
5) Koba and VP have voted each other without a hammer, therefore one of them must be scum.

I'm trying to present the above facts as unbiased as I can, so people can see how ridiculous it is to think Koba is not scum in this situation.

[VP Baltar]

How is Alduskkel ever Town here?

If you are scum.

Look, you can go on all day about whatever you want, a 1v1 between you and Aldus is not a better bet than a 1v1 between myself and Koba. You can stop trying to convince me of it. I have a guilty, we are voting there.

[VP Baltar]

Yes it is a better bet. You’re just not being objective because you are in the 1v1. There’s never been any serious voting action around you or DkKoba. All we have is your word. We have had serious voting action around my slot and Alduskkel. It’s all there man.

All we have is my word?

There are literally multiple times I've proven my claim. You admit yourself I am a PT cop. There is no way in hell scum have a PT cop AND a role cop vs. 2 masons and a tracker.

There are clear events beyond my word people can look to, which are more reliable than any voting record business.

[VP Baltar]

There are clear events that establish that a PT Cop exists. There are no clear cut events that establish that the PT Cop is Town. This distinction is obvious to me. And if you are Town, you know we still have to make the decision I am trying to force today. That’s also evident. You seem mighty opposed to a situation that is inevitable even if you’re check is correct. Why?

Because I know I'm right. There are no doubts. Why would I ever take your side in that?

And yes, there are events that point to me being town...namely that scum clearly had a targeted kill of Billy. The game balance would be so far off kilter if scum had two investigative roles to the town's one.

Generally speaking, when all things are equal role wise, scum are considered to have the advantage given they already have information.

A setup of:
2 vanilla masons
1 Mason tracker
VTs

Vs.
1 goon
1 scum rolecop
1 PT cop

is wildly out of balance for scum and would never pass review.


Compared to a setup of:
2 vanilla masons
1 Mason tracker
1 PT cop

Vs.
1 goon
1 scum rolecop
1 ??? (Possible weak power here? Probably depends on reviewer preference)

which actually makes sense from a balance perspective given the second town investigative role has an equal chance of helping town or scum.

[VP Baltar]

i have a big headache but i'll save it for later.

at this point i feel like i wanna just vote aldu too. bc if thats wrong then both ico and npom are scum which feels unsolvable and in whch case i just wanna end game and take the L early instead of drawing it out.

But yeah I mean this is the point. If I’m wrong about Ico for example then the game will end in a loss most of the time so we might as well speed it up and make some decisions that are completely inevitable. I’m not asking anybody to take a chance on a decision that can be avoided some other kind of way. This literally can’t be avoided. So let’s just get on with it.

Lol

Yes, let's take a chance with two potential scum negotiating what the confirmed town players should do.

This is next level hilarious.

[VP Baltar]

This day has become WIFOM central. Here are basically the only facts anyone should be troubling themselves with:

1) VP has was forced to reveal he is a PT Cop in a gambit by Datisi, who claimed loyal neighborizer rather than tracker.
2) VP truthfully noted he visited George Bailey. (confirmed by hidden Billy track)
2) We believe scum have a rolecop and that's how they found Billy. That makes it extremely unlikely scum also have a PT cop.
3) VP has proven he is a PT cop by getting a false positive on hellbrooks.
4) VP has claimed a guilty on Koba.
5) Koba and VP have voted each other without a hammer, therefore one of them must be scum.

I'm trying to present the above facts as unbiased as I can, so people can see how ridiculous it is to think Koba is not scum in this situation.

[VP Baltar]

Andres+Koba teaming up to talk Ico out of voting Koba with any BS.

Ico, please don't cost us this game. I'm literally handing us scum.

[VP Baltar]

Also ask vp why he was hunting for scum and not a green check from their point of view. Wouldnt he clear someone they townread?

You joking?

[VP Baltar]

if we flip him, there is a shot scum MIGHT kill you which is HUGE benefit for town at that point

and if you live, we continue this discussion

-_______-

[VP Baltar]

And you still might get that wish. But let’s just do what’s clearly optimal.

Finally, we agree on something

[VP Baltar]

I love y'all, but you're crazy

[VP Baltar]

And the optimal move is to vote Aldus. So no, we don’t agree.

OK THANKS FOR CLARIFYING. WAS SUPER CONFUSED

[VP Baltar]

Vote in your own time, it’s fine. But you have seen me play now. You know that I have some ability to plan ahead. I mean I literally wrote yesterday that VPB would be here with a guilty. You should be able to tell that I wouldn’t pull some dumb stunt as Scum just to try and end the game immediately, when I clearly don’t have to.

This is literally the stupidest argument. "I'm too good for this"

I've played about a million games on this site. Let's just stop with this clown shit.

Ico, the reason I'm alive now is become scum killed Billy and then they intended to keep me alive for wifom today. That is absolutely the play Koba and team went for. They knew the PoE was narrow, so what choice did they have?

Let's say they kill me last night. They come into today with a Datisi-hellbrooks confirmed town and an unshakable Dats-Ico alliance. That leaves the scum pool at Koba, Andres, NPOM, Aldus. That's a 75% chance of town success. Killing dats and leaving me alive adds me to the potential scum pool and reduces town chances of eliminating to 3/5, or 60%. Scum need to wifom enough to discount my investigation, but if they can do that, their odds of winning today go up.

[VP Baltar]

And that's not even considering if they can get Ico into the pool. So potentially a 50% chance of winning today, versus 25% chance in a kill VP scenario.

[VP Baltar]

wait fuck

that's it

scum already knew on D2 that there was at least a mason tracker
add to that a 'loyal neighbourizer' and a fake PT cop claim might actually work for scum

scum can just have the rolecop or smt, investigated Hell on N2, and stuck to their PT rolecop thing claim.

Oh my word.

[VP Baltar]

Let's say they kill me last night. They come into today with a Datisi-hellbrooks confirmed town and an unshakable Dats-Ico alliance. That leaves the scum pool at Koba, Andres, NPOM, Aldus. That's a 75% chance of town success. Killing dats and leaving me alive adds me to the potential scum pool and reduces town chances of eliminating to 3/5, or 60%. Scum need to wifom enough to discount my investigation, but if they can do that, their odds of winning today go up.

[VP Baltar]

Let me think on it. I just really don't want to be alive in this game anymore.

Lol, I've literally been justifying my existence in this game for two days now with many verifiable details and I still have zero power. It's unreal. At least if we eliminate guaranteed scumKoba today, I can guarantee I'll be killed and not have to think about this anymore.

[VP Baltar]

Imagine having caught scum and multiple people trying to tell you to yeet elsewhere.

[VP Baltar]

This game is killing me and I need to go to sleep.

I'll see you all tomorrow (hopefully). I don't think I can explain any more clearly why all the pieces align and my guilty is solid. Vote Koba!

[VP Baltar]

Yes, please vote Koba. There is literally zero risk of quick hammer

[VP Baltar]

No I’m talking about VPB. But I find it just somewhat interesting that you are urging the guy that you were willing to vote in ELo to vote between a 50/50 while recognizing that the strategy I’ve laid out is strictly better.

Apologies for checking my phone while I watch TV before sleeping. Jesus.

[VP Baltar]

What we know:

1 scum in NPOM v Ico
1scum in Andres v Aldus
1 scum in Koba v VP

Hellbrooks, you make the call.

[VP Baltar]

Omg, I hate this game. We are seriously going to yeet me and lose the game because scum have a Joat?

[VP Baltar]

If anything,this confirms the balance of my role

[VP Baltar]

No, VPB is actually mechanically confirmed Scum. They claimed a PT result on DkKoba, which would be impossible for them unless you think there’s two PT Cops in the game.

You are very bad at mechanics clearly. The scum had a one shot PT according to the role PM. That makes perfect sense as a counter to mine if I hit a bunch of scum early

[VP Baltar]

I have to admit, I think it’s kind of interesting that you are here posting at all. I would completely avoid the thread in the hopes of not tipping the balance any which way.

Oh I'm sure you'd love me to just shut up and eat an elimination

[VP Baltar]

No, VPB is actually mechanically confirmed Scum. They claimed a PT result on DkKoba, which would be impossible for them unless you think there’s two PT Cops in the game.

You are very bad at mechanics clearly. The scum had a one shot PT according to the role PM. That makes perfect sense as a counter to mine if I hit a bunch of scum early

Yep, so bad that I called that the Scum had both a PT Cop and a Role Cop.

They clearly don't have both of those things there, smarty pants. They have a JOAT, which is a one shot of several things.

I really can't believe you expect people to take you as genuine when you just say stupid things again and again as if they were true.

[VP Baltar]

im sorry to everyone about everything

There's still time to vote Koba and fix this. I'm really going to be unhappy if you lose the game with my miselim.

[VP Baltar]

No, VPB is actually mechanically confirmed Scum. They claimed a PT result on DkKoba, which would be impossible for them unless you think there’s two PT Cops in the game.

You are very bad at mechanics clearly. The scum had a one shot PT according to the role PM. That makes perfect sense as a counter to mine if I hit a bunch of scum early

Yep, so bad that I called that the Scum had both a PT Cop and a Role Cop.

They clearly don't have both of those things there, smarty pants. They have a JOAT, which is a one shot of several things.

I really can't believe you expect people to take you as genuine when you just say stupid things again and again as if they were true.

Is this effective for you as Scum? Calling people stupid?

I'm not saying you are stupid. I'm saying you're intentionally saying stupid things as if they make sense.

[VP Baltar]

No, VPB is actually mechanically confirmed Scum. They claimed a PT result on DkKoba, which would be impossible for them unless you think there’s two PT Cops in the game.

You are very bad at mechanics clearly. The scum had a one shot PT according to the role PM. That makes perfect sense as a counter to mine if I hit a bunch of scum early

Yep, so bad that I called that the Scum had both a PT Cop and a Role Cop.

They clearly don't have both of those things there, smarty pants. They have a JOAT, which is a one shot of several things.

I really can't believe you expect people to take you as genuine when you just say stupid things again and again as if they were true.

Is this effective for you as Scum? Calling people stupid?

I'm not saying you are stupid. I'm saying you're intentionally saying stupid things as if they make sense.

I’m not interacting with outted Scum. This is my last post responding to anything you say.

So you're not going to vote Koba then, who is confirmed scum?

[VP Baltar]

i mean it's damning in itself that VP hasn't outed his result yet right

I have a result. I'll reveal in twilight when we yeet Koba. I'm not playing this game again where no one listens to VP as he locks the game down.

Vote: Koba

[VP Baltar]

This game comes down to whether hellbrooks gets rolled here.

[VP Baltar]

HELLBOOKS WOULD U BE MAD AT ME IF DRUNK ME VOTED RN LOL

I appreciate the faking you got going on right now. If you win on that I won't even be mad. (Well I will be, but this game has been effed since D2)

[VP Baltar]

im too gay to see the previous post

lol'd

[VP Baltar]

Scum masterpiece theater presents: THIS GAME

[VP Baltar]

also VP, the correct play was to random inno someone. its safer and doesnt lock you into a 1v1 with someone.

Maybe. I mean, we had built a house of cards and needed to finish the game sooner rather than later. The fact you guys let me get away with investigating anyone other than Aldus was only because I claimed a guilty. Claiming an inno there would have been very problematic for my survival that day, let alone ANOTHER day after that.

Raya, thanks for modding. My only feedback would be that next time you should be more transparent about revealing role PMs. It completely ended any chance of scum winning to reveal NPOM's role PM. As a team, we may have played differently around his yeet if we had know that.

Not sure how I feel about this setup in the end. The scum team played pretty cleanly (rocky start), and still got decimated. Three confirmed town out of 13 is a big hill to climb. Aldus did a great job picking out the masons quick. It's weird because if I hadn't been tracked N1 I probably wouldn't have felt so doomed from the start, but we also wouldn't have found the masons so quickly.

Anyhow, fun game all. Would play with any of you again in the future.

[VP Baltar]

VPB I agree about the three masons - I felt that was a huge advantage for the Town.

You played great I felt, particularly after getting tracked to a death. The play was great. I really have nothing but compliments for the way you guys pushed us.

Haha, I was so mad at you when you convinced everyone to yeet outside of Koba and me

You clinched the town win at that point

[VP Baltar]

baltar, at the time of my guilty, were you actually walking your dog?

I did take my dog out! But only to potty and not on a full walk. I was also trying to cook dinner and was phone posting.

I honestly didn't see your result claim until a good bit after you made it. I wasn't expecting anyone to actually reply to my "quick!" so fast.



Speaking of which, the timezone difference was so hard for me this game! I hated that Dats and Ico had this little pow wow everyday at like 2am my time that I could not interrupt. Made it very hard to stop them from adding to an already substantial town block from the start of the game. Trying to navigate around that was an interesting experience

[VP Baltar]

VPB I agree about the three masons - I felt that was a huge advantage for the Town.

You played great I felt, particularly after getting tracked to a death. The play was great. I really have nothing but compliments for the way you guys pushed us.

Haha, I was so mad at you when you convinced everyone to yeet outside of Koba and me

You clinched the town win at that point

it was gonna be u either way. he just solved the game earlier rather than later

wait, you think I would have been flipped in the 1v1 with you on the day I claimed the guilty?

[VP Baltar]

u supposed to kill one off on n1 ya goof

For sure, for sure. I'm always hesitant to kill the most obvtown person n1, just in case there is a doc. Killing Datisi N1 would have been a MAJOR change in how this game played out. I didn't have strong mason vibes off them D1 though since they were in such a leadership role. Our team obviously had to make killing the masons the top priority. If we had missed even a second shot, we would have been PoE'd even more than we were.

[VP Baltar]

well you made me stay up all night to claim the guilty, so i think it's fair

Sorry! You were very nice being about my being at work too. You should have totally pressured me earlier so you didn't have to stay up (though I realize that would have given me more time to fake claim).

[VP Baltar]

Yes. The scum play does not line up with koba!scum. I was going to argue that forever.

Haha, well I hope we can 1v1 for real in the future because we need to test our egos here.

[VP Baltar]

No redactions to the Mafia PT

Yeah, I'm fine releasing it as is, too.

[VP Baltar]

Props to vp for dismantling a guilty on them d2, that was really slick and fun to watch.

Thank you! Sorry you didn't get to play more. Hope we get to play (on the same side) in the future.

[VP Baltar]

Yes. The scum play does not line up with koba!scum. I was going to argue that forever.

Haha, well I hope we can 1v1 for real in the future because we need to test our egos here.

better to inno someone in that situation. If you inno ico there they power hang me.

But I'd have to explain why I investigated obvtown Ico at that point instead of someone more suspicious. That's my hang up. No way I'd believe that line of thought if I was town. oh well!

I would be super mad if Baltar is scum, because then I will feel only regret that I listened to others and didn't went full tunnel on his claim. That freaking wrong result gave me sleepless nights

OMG, I totally forgot about this! I was seriously freaking out because you caught my lie there. Datisi picked up on it a little later too, but no one really forced me to comment on my active avoidance of it. I really did not have a good answer and would have been fumbling if pressed on it.

[VP Baltar]

i also thought that was weird but i didn't wanna press it on because i kinda took the original post to mean "i copped bailey, he's obviously not in a PT, and i don't have a useful result"

don't play mafia when sleep deprived

You are being way too hard on yourself in the game and the dead PT. I thought you played a very solid game as town leadership. Yes, I benefited off your shielding and should have been pressed harder, but I think without your organization, the game would have been more chaotic and scum probably would have benefited more. You being hard town Ico all game (which really carried on after your death) made the PoE exceptionally small and is really one of the main factors that did us in at the end.

[VP Baltar]

Aldus -- what are your thoughts on night actions?

I'm happy to do the kill. Doubt I'll get tracked

This didn't aged well though. It had to be.

lol famous last words I guess

[VP Baltar]

I’m still super confused by the gbailz kill N1

It was a shot to hit a mason. GB was being super quiet and yet was drawing town reads. That kind of circumstance aligns with a possible mason. We knew from the start we didn't have much time to NK them.