Open 791 | Forest Fire | Game Over

[Farren]

Looking into more detail ...

Tail end of the wagon, which is obvious from the vote counts. Time was running out; it wasn't at emergency-gotta-hammer-now levels yet, but at the we-need-to-get-this-done level.

1232 is the only thing I see that might be connected even remotely to what's going on now. Having a difficult time parsing the context, though.

Gamma was annoyed at the wagon - well, he described himself as livid later, but I think he did a decent job of tuning down that down.

Oh, and you tried to flash-wagon me.

[Farren]

Be cool if they were distancing though cause then Isis would indeed be town like I want her to be and also I am REALLY not sure who above the line would be arsonist rn.

Could you explain this further, please? I don't get how distancing is related to how your reads are positioned.

[Farren]

Ah okay; I was confusing cause and effect, I think.

[Farren]

Not cool, even if that was tongue-in-cheek.

[Farren]

Feels "incredibly fake" but "with him it's a more... subtle thing?"

Those don't go together very well.

[Farren]

I really don't want to put in the insane amount of effort required to go over assuming GT is scum and then working backwards on who his partner is.
Based just on what I've seen in his last posts, he's trying to hint that I AM his partner as mis-execution down the line, but that only really works if he's scum this game.

Based on not calling your vote garbage? That's the only thing I see that comes close to hinting the two of you are partners.

If GL is scum, I seriously doubt he tries to shade you. Seems like a very low-odds-of-success plan given how you're generally read.

[Farren]

That's the sort of speech I expect to hear at an execution, or a call demanding one.

PEdit: MT's, not Isis's response.

[Farren]

My point being: that sounded like the sort of post I'd write if I were going on the warpath. If I'm in that headspace, I'm confident I'm on the right track.

Would you say that applies to you?

Pedit: @MT

[Farren]

All right. Suspicion averted.

I'd thought it funny that your post wasn't accompanied by a vote. It really felt like it should have been. And if you'd expressed confidence in that, the omission of a vote would have risen to scummy levels.

[Farren]

Farren can you please carry me

Hand me a nice clean ELo situation and I'm your man, if you don't stab me in the face. Or give me a clear, definite dichotomy to work with.

Right now, I'm still thinking Ydrasse ... but given that MT passed the check I gave her, I have to consider her arguments for you.

[Farren]

Isis: what were your thoughts when GuiltyLion voted for tea leaves today?

Why didn't you vote for tea leaves at that point?

[Farren]

I'm happy with my vote right now.

[Farren]

*crickets chirping*

[Farren]

Not really? MT has asked Isis some pointed questions concerning her reads; Isis moved onto tea leaves afterwards. Lots of ambivalence in general, myself included - I don't recall anyone making a serious TvT case between you and Ydrasse.

PEdit> More or less what MT said, minus the obvious.

[Farren]

tea leaves is right about the lack of WIM, Ydrasse. You appear to be demotivated. I don't see any attempts on your end during D2 to find scum - just justifying your positions.

[Farren]

When someone is focused on themselves more so than the other players, that's a pretty good indicator of scum.

[Farren]

"Wants it more."

I think of it as the drive to win.

[Farren]

Why the unvote?

[Farren]

How would you describe Bell's first 48 hours of D2?

[Farren]

That was to GuiltyLion. Think the site's having some issues ...

[Farren]

We're down to less than 24 hours left. Need to think about consolidating fairly soon.

I'll be around for a bit tomorrow morning, and then again the last few hours before deadline.

I haven't seen any reason to consider changing my vote at this time.

[Farren]

Unofficial Tally:

Ydrasse - 2 (Farren, tea leaves)
GuiltyLion - 2 (Bell, Ydrasse)
Bell - 1 (GuiltyLion)

Not Voting - Dunnstral, Morning Tweet, Isis

[Farren]

I stand corrected, e-2 and e-3 respectively.

GuiltyLion's switch to you ties him up with Ydrasse.

[Farren]

@Dannflor - has Dunnstral been prodded? He's been inactive for three days.

[Farren]

GuiltyLion: why are you trying to start a new wagon this late? Are you townreading Ydrasse, and if so, how strongly?

[Farren]

There's a possibility we could get an extension like last time, given how past-due Dunnstral is to post - but I wouldn't want to bet an elimination on it. That said, I'll be here up through deadline if anything happens.

Pedit: talk about timing ...

[Farren]

Totally understandable, regardless of your alignment.

[Farren]

Oh I thought she was hammered

Nobody has been hammered yet.

[Farren]

Unofficial Tally:

Ydrasse - 4 (Farren, tea leaves, Morning Tweet, GuiltyLion)
GuiltyLion - 2 (Bell, Ydrasse)

Not Voting - Dunnstral, Isis

5 to eliminate.

[Farren]

Yes.

[Farren]

Le sigh.

Unless this is an attempt at demoralization prior to a red flip? Maybe? Hopefully?

[Farren]

Definitely feeling better about GuiltyLion now. He's off the table today, as far as I'm concerned.

Less certain about Bell, but still townreading there.

tea leaves I'm feeling better about, although not to the extent of GuiltyLion.

Isis and MT are my top two suspects. Starting with Isis.

VOTE: Isis

PEdit: GuiltyLion? With Ydrasse flipping red?
PEdit PEdit: *raised eyebrow*

[Farren]

Assuming 100% scum success rate - avoiding the firefighter, not dousing anyone that later gets eliminated -

Start of D1: 7 town, 2 scum
Start of D2: 6 town (1 doused), 2 scum, 1 stump
Start of D3: 6 town (2 doused), 1 scum, 1 stump

Working worst-case scenario from here ...

D4: 5 town (3 doused), 1 scum, 2 stump

Mis-elim here means 4 town (3 doused), 1 scum during N4. Scum ignites and wins.

We can definitely afford one mis-elimination. Past that, it will depend on how good Dunnstral is at outguessing scum and how good scum is at dousing people that aren't getting eliminated.

[Farren]

Farren why are you even scumreading me

Because my picture of you right now involves a high amount of fluff, especially with Ydrasse.

Because you stayed off the wagon that eliminated Ydrasse, and tried to talk her into self-hammering - which means less info for Town, more people off the wagon.

Because all that talk about me in the scum PT is starting to sound like projection.

[Farren]

Let's start from 1175:

Ydrasse - 3 (Bell, Guilty, Gamma)
tea - 2 (Farren, Isis)
Gamma Emerald - 1 (Dunnstral)
Dunnstral - 1 (tea leaves)
Guilty - 1 (Ydrasse)
No Vote - Morning Tweet

---

Ydrasse votes tea leaves.
Bell votes Gamma.
tea leaves votes Gamma.
Isis votes Gamma (E-1)
Gamma votes tea leaves.
GL hammers Gamma.

Ydrasse at that point seemed to think tea leaves was an acceptable candidate for not-her. Makes tea leaves look better.
Dunnstral was on you initially. Then Bell, then tea leaves, then Isis, then GL.

[Farren]

Isis: Fluff is a way of boosting one's post count in a game, and not falling victim to low-posting scum syndrome. The last (offsite) game I was in, the last scum's defense boiled down to "I know I was JK'd last night, and there was no kill, and the JK announced in advance that I was being targeted ... but look at how much I interacted with the person who just flipped scum! I can't possibly be scumpartners with them!" This is reminding me of that, to some extent.

What was the game that you're referencing re: less fluff-posting possibly being scum-indicative?

You were not on the wagon when Ydrasse was eliminated. Link to the VC

Calling my analysis underwhelming is not going to accomplish anything regardless of your alignment, unless it convinces other people I'm wrong.

Pedit: not reading all that now. After I post.
Pedit Pedit: no trig homework posting, please.
Pedit Pedit Pedit: fourth time's a charm?

[Farren]

can you tell i don't respond to pressure well

I have mounds of trig homework to be doing but instead im here doing scumslips and other things

Funny, I thought you were responding pretty well.

[Farren]

if we only have 2 chops I'm just gonna accept that scum!Bell wins the game, I don't think I can convince myself and everyone else he was definitely bussing in 2 chops. But!
when you eat your pie crusts
meditate on the fabric of reality

This sounds like you've already convinced yourself, even though you said you haven't.

Could you elaborate?

[Farren]

viewtopic.php?f=83&t=84005

I defeated all the gullible townies as scum in this game

Thanks. I'll read this later tonight.

[Farren]

What is the likelihood I'm right and everyone else is wrong? It's nonzero, I'm a smart cookie. It just doesn't seem like what's within range of what's worthwhile. I'm a bit more collaborative than that in my approach to the game, if only just.

Worthwhile how? Like, "I'm sure I'm right, but no one else will believe me?" Or "I think I'm right, but I'm not sure, and if I'm wrong I go next?" Or "I'd have to ruin this game to convince people, and that's not worth it?" Or some other line?

[Farren]

Bell: if you're talking about this game -

Isis: Fluff is a way of boosting one's post count in a game, and not falling victim to low-posting scum syndrome. The last (offsite) game I was in, the last scum's defense boiled down to "I know I was JK'd last night, and there was no kill, and the JK announced in advance that I was being targeted ... but look at how much I interacted with the person who just flipped scum! I can't possibly be scumpartners with them!" This is reminding me of that, to some extent.

- Town won that one. The whole "no kill after being JK'd with one scum left" argument outweighed the "look! interaction!" argument by quite a bit.

I'm not sure how genuine Isis's belief of not voting Ydrasse is.

hm. Would scum|Isis deliberately try to push something that could be factually disproven, easily? I want to say no ... not an Isis-specific thing, more like most scum don't want to undermine their own position? So genuine is more likely than not, I think.

Compare vs. the sooooooooooo moment - no doubt that was genuine. NAI, but still genuine.

Would scum|Isis genuinely forget that she's not voting her partner? With daytalk, I'd assume no. Without daytalk ... less certain? Can't coordinate, so it's at least possible.

[Farren]

Do you usually think in terms of risk/reward?

[Farren]

Eh, not really. Tautologies have to be true, by definition. Some people don't think in those terms, or may only do so in certain circumstances. Trying to judge if that sort of thinking should be considered NAI where you're concerned.

[Farren]

Which further solidifies that it's probably NAI. I'll try to hunt down a town game or two later and see if the pattern holds. I'm assuming that was a quote from the scumgame you linked earlier.

PEdit> Or at least are more likely to think about it as scum. A lot of behaviors aren't "Only do X as scum" or "Only do X as Town" - but might be more likely to do it as one or the other, or might be more extreme in doing it as one or the other.

[Farren]

So let's say it's Ydrasse/tea leaves.

No daytalk, so no coordination.

Does Ydrasse decide that - of the two of them - she's in the better position to take it home for scum? Or does she think there's no chance tea leaves gets killed?

Both of those things sound dubious.

[Farren]

Actually, that makes one of the dubious propositions less dubious, now that I think of it. If Ydrasse was actively trying to get tea leaves dead, I'd expect a little more oomph in that vote. So maybe she didn't think there was any realistic chance of a tea leaves elimination. I'd say in a tea leaves / Ydrasse team, she was the worse positioned of the two - so if she seriously wanted to go about gaining cred, she'd need a case - not just a vote that could be dismissed as a vote anyone could cast in her shoes.

[Farren]

Scum lurkout is always an option, if you're convinced of being doomed. Or the Hail Mary.

They may not be *good* options, but they're certainly options that scum chooses.

Or it's as simple as : tea leaves isn't her partner. In which case, it's a simple attempt at trying to push a wagon in hopes of not-her dying, and she was trying to feign reluctance.

[Farren]

Ydrasse / tea? Or you / Ydrasse?

The former: I keep trying to test the idea, and it keeps falling flat. I don't think that's s/s.

The latter: A seed of doubt has been planted. I still need to read a towngame or two of yours. At least, interaction between you and Ydrasse doesn't have the same flavor as between you/Hectic in that Micro.

[Farren]

After skipping through Achievement Unlocked (incentive to do very odd things = trying to judge meta off of it is dumb) and Mask of Monsters (anonymous alts) and Purgatory (scum), let's try Mini 2153.

[Farren]

You posted with your main account in that game after it ended.

[Farren]

And -1 point for calling it cherry-picking. That has negative connotations.

Going back too far tends to not be helpful. People change, given enough time. Too far back and it becomes more for entertainment than edification.

Pedit: Coconut oil, maybe.

[Farren]

Yup. It conveys selectability specifically with the purpose of trying to advance an agenda, without outright stating "You're trying to advance an agenda." Hence the minus point - that's shade.

Conclusions - hah. Most of the time I'm happy if I can get anything better than "vague feelings." Which is why I keep telling myself not to do this anymore. Sometimes, people *don't* change. Or there hasn't been enough time yet. Take your pick.

At least right now I'm seeing some parallels between that one and this one. So lockscum is out, at least.

Of course, that's pretty bloody meaningless. Does tell me I need to re-read you here, though.

[Farren]

If you were Town? You wouldn't.

I think I see where this is going, though - nowhere productive. Something else I'm trying to work on. Moving on.

[Farren]

Pedit: Coconut oil, maybe.

does this mean you don't think the scum would NK you this game?

I don't think public speculation on who scum are targeting is going to benefit us right now.

[Farren]

Should i towncase Isis? or not bother

If you have a towncase on Isis, you should definitely bother.

[Farren]

Either MT is town, or her case reaches a conclusion that is true. Or both. Either way, it's worth listening to.

*gets out the magnifying glass and tweezers*

[Farren]

Damn now im worried i could possibly towncase both scum in one game

it'll be a pretty unbiased read through of isis i think because now im nervous about being wrong

This is not an auspicious beginning.

[Farren]

Entertaining?

[Farren]

Ydrasse assumes no cc because she knows I'm town

Does she, though, in a no day-talk setup? At least, if her partner is last in line to claim and could theoretically counterclaim?

That'd be another piece of evidence that it's not Ydrasse|GL. If GL is her partner, she can't know there's no counterclaim coming even though she knows Dunnstral's town. The only way she knows there's no cc coming is if GL is Town as well.

[Farren]

bell convinced me a little bit about ydrasse bussing tea first without daytalk but i guess maybe still tea

teascum is my soulread

How consistent would you say you've been on this since you first formed this read?

[Farren]

I now think Morning is obvtown lol

My push was clearly needed to draw this towny reaction so gonna call my tunnel-induce calculated

Can you explain this further?

[Farren]

VOTE: GuiltyLion

+1 for this.

Not because I think you're voting scum, but because I was wondering why you weren't doing this already when it looked like you should have been based on your posts.

[Farren]

Tea do like, a tiny lil self meta case

Like when Bell said "I would never go out of my way to give my scum partner a hard time upon entering the game where they're not even under any pressure. I'm just not that kind of player"

im a sucker for that kind of defence despite it burning me at least once or twice

Self-meta is best used when desperate, whether Town or scum.

[Farren]

But self-meta is so valuable for you two read me in future games. Maybe my philosophy should be to play every mafia game like it's the last though?

Biggest indicator I want to give you is that as scum I feel the need to be relatively consistent and have quite unchanging reads. My progressions are gradual and you can see how stuff is changing, albeit very gradually. You can see this in Your Nightmare, or my Replacement for Sujimichi game off the top of my head.

Here I have multiple sharp turns in reads and progressions all over the place.

And this would be a good example.

At face value, this is totally logical. Scum do frequently value consistency, because there's this picture of scum being willing to eliminate anyone that isn't them or their partner(s). So to counter that impression, they have to look like they're actually trying to solve, and as a result they have to approach it more ... methodically is the best word, I think. While Town can be all over the place. Mind changing twenty times a second. Is this it? no, that's it. Wait, what about this?

Self-awareness at least *can* destroy it, though. Knowing that trying to be too consistent is a trap as scum, so instead of trying to emulate logical progression, instead going for trying to emulate chaos and confusion.

Backsliding into old patterns can sometimes reveal scum. But then you have to consider the possibility of consistency being the point of actually reaching that moment of clarity - the point where the chaos *stops* - and it's all obvious. The answers, laid bare.

And then half the time it's wrong.

I love this game sometimes.

And then trying to judge this takes on extra levels - like, if it were unprompted, I'd lean scummy. But it wasn't unprompted; it was specifically asked for.

It feels honest. That's the best I can do.

[Farren]

I’m town so I go down the elimination list.
You should self vote if it comes down to between me and you. Because our arsonist would never light someone on fire, right?

It's a good thing you've established yourself as a user of deadpan sarcasm already.

[Farren]

Is it elo if dunstral protects someone yesterday or tonight?

No.

It also isn't ELo if we get it right today.

[Farren]

haha i just say exactly how it is and give every reason i can think of as to why it's so obvious to me that im not scum in every single game

I would literally hand people the key to solving me if necessary

it sounds like something that would negatively impact my scum game but I haven't really had a chance to find out. maybe it would. or maybe i figure something out. unsure

This is a totally doable strategy, if you're willing to keep a locksmith on hand.

At least in terms of being able to do it. In terms of it working ... "FREE KEYS" (is the door trapped? is this a sting operation?)

[Farren]

I will be so mad if Farren's town because I'm hoping this is like just a total in ability to perspective borrow what it's like to be scum trying to make sure 1-2 players survive this setup, it doesn't involve claiming to confirm yourself scum frequently

This makes no sense at all.

It's a lot easier to figure out scum perspective as scum. Why would you be mad at my being Town if my view of potential scum perspective doesn't line up with yours?

[Farren]

The stronger scum never CCs day 1 in this setup. Why on this precious earth do you think any player needs daychat to figure out how that is a losing play? If you like imagining players using the game thread as a substitute for daychat maybe Ydrasse voted him to cue him that counterclaiming would be awful play. But really I don't think that was necessary.

There's a difference between "figuring that it's a losing play" and "knowing for sure that your partner would never commit a losing play." Especially in setups with no day-talk, where you might not have time to get a sense of your partner's play at all.

If I were in that case, I wouldn't expect my partner to CC. But I also wouldn't vote my partner either.

Conclusion in that case? Ydrasse and GuiltyLion are probably not partners.

[Farren]

True.

Just because something is true does not make it universally known.

PEdit> Maybe I'm just used to scum in general being willing to do crazy things, skilled or not.
PEdit PEdit> Seriously, go look at that last scum game I was in. Go see what my partner did. Wasn't a CC, but in the same vein. Didn't work. Or the last offsite ELo I lost - scum left mechtown alive and got me miselimed because the conftown had me tunneled. Or my last scum ELo offsite, where I was the one doing crazy things all game - and they worked.

Anyway. Point is: I consider things like this because in my experience, scum occasionally do things like this. I wouldn't make a suicidal CC as scum - but that doesn't mean other players wouldn't. And it'd be a mistake to dismiss someone making a CC in that case as unskilled. It can be done - and gotten away with. At least if I'm not around or if people aren't listening to me.

PEdit PEdit PEdit> I'm still trying to figure out if there's anything AI in here at all. I need to just post this so I can see if you've answered the one question that might have some AI elements in it. Rant over.

[Farren]

It's a lot easier to figure out scum perspective as scum. Why would you be mad at my being Town if my view of potential scum perspective doesn't line up with yours?

For the record, this is the question I was referring to.

[Farren]

And what conclusions do you draw from all that?
PEdit> to Morning Tweet, re: 2141

[Farren]

hmmm I can't count

(looks at vote tally)

(gets nervous)

[Farren]

The vote reasoning makes sense in a vacuum; voting for the one potential counter-claimant does not.

Starting a new wagon when she's one of two main alternatives, though - that doesn't seem like scum-oriented thinking, unless the team is exactly her / tea leaves.

[Farren]

UNVOTE: Isis

Need to think about that one for a bit.

[Farren]

VOTE: Gamma

I'd heavily prefer Gamma over Ydrasse too. Join us, Ydrasse!!!

Why?

Speaking off of tone I guess. Ydrasse's seemed somewhat genuine mostly

This exchange here.

1198 sounds excited. 1204 sounds a lot more muted.

This is when the Gamma wagon was starting to gain steam, just after the case where Ydrasse / tea leaves are the top two contenders.

For a Ydrasse/tea leaves team, the Gamma wagon is a godsend and justifies some excitement.

But 1204 comes in with "somewhat genuine mostly." That sounds significantly less excited. Less confident after "heavily prefer Gamma over Ydrasse."

If this excitement came from town|tea leaves, I would expect it to continue to 1204. Those posts were about seven minutes apart. But scum|tea leaves might very well realize that that excitement could be taken the wrong way and tamp it down to more reasonable levels.

The one thing that gives me pause is that vote in 1176 - Ydrasse to tea leaves.

Looking at her reasoning - and yes, she's scum, so truthfulness is questionable, but she has to want to at least *look* plausible - she rules out me, MT, Bell, and Isis for various reasons. Dunnstral's the claimed firefighter. Guilty's going nowhere.

But looking back, Ydrasse did have a TR on Gamma. A light one, but a TR nonetheless. So did it come from a worry of being inconsistent? Like, she just backed herself into a corner between her own townreads and the gamestate? And then it ended up not mattering after the Gamma wagon took off.

[Farren]

Not going to cast an E-1 vote at this point - want to make sure Guilty gets a chance to weigh in, just in case. But that's where I'm leaning right now.

[Farren]

By the power of the re-roll, your request was granted.

[Farren]

VOTE: tea leaves

Scum could talk during pre-game. I didn't get a chance to do it, but I did at least have time to ask if it was allowed. I think GL said he had enough time to post something in the PT before it disappeared?

[Farren]

Apparently I'm not being paranoid enough.

PEdit> Are you saying you were not excited there, tea leaves?
...
more PEdits later ...

[Farren]

What does it say about a day where you find yourself doing a search for "!!!" in someone's ISO?

We have:

Ydrasse's flip on you is weird.
The above.
Wishing Ydrasse a happy birthday.

Everything else is quotes, which don't count.

Was trying to figure out if you just use a bunch of !s all over the place and I just didn't notice. Doesn't look like it.

[Farren]

Farren had not even expressed interest in voting Ydrasse yet before Bell made those posts, from what I am seeing. He bounced off of me, to Gamma, to Guilty

This is true. Ydrasse came next, after GuiltyLion.

[Farren]

Wait, what's the case on wishing Ydrasse Happy Birthday?

Ydrasse's flip on me implies I'm town. She voted me with intent to get my wagon through. She was the 3rd vote and it was on me rather than other viable wagons like Gamma.

What do you mean, what's the case?

One possible counter-explanation would have been, you use those !!!s frequently, which would mean I might be reading too much into their use. So I checked to see how frequently you used them. Three times, which I don't think is overly frequent. One of those three was a happy birthday wish, which would also be an example of (completely and totally NAI) excitement. The other use - talking about Ydrasse flipping her (read? vote?) on you - that one's more of an outlier.

Why does GL's absence of posts make you not want to move your vote? Do you think his absence is scummy?

[Farren]

Are you trying to make a point by doing that now? Or are you trying to convey that you are agitated?

[Farren]

Hobbes's absence is very scum-indicative. As town, he's a lot more invested and not uncommonly top 2/3 poster. As scum, he posts far less.

He dropped out of Newbie 2024, after being prodded repeatedly. He was Town in that game. That was recent - game wrapped up about a week ago, and he left in D3.

He hasn't posted anywhere on-site since Tuesday. Based on both those facts, I'd say his absence is NAI.

[Farren]

You don't think my reasons make sense?
As far as I can remember, the ones I've said are:
-Genuine frustration at me "townslipping" when clidd was your biggest scumlead
-The going back and forth on me like there's real thought behind that read
-Unvoting Ydrasse instead of remaining on her when it was clear she would be the elim

Other reasons I guess I could spew:
-The nonstop paranoia with regards to Farren's alignment
-Pushing me earlier today when I'm the only person townreading you

Just to be clear: these are reasons why you scumread (or don't townread) Isis? Losing track of the threads here.

[Farren]

... wait, no, that doesn't make sense.

PEdit> Reasons you townread her, got it.

[Farren]

The paranoia dial has broken off its mount, dangling loosely by a spring.

[Farren]

This is actually Conspiracy. We're all plotting against you.

[Farren]

Was mentioning Bell a clever trick to see if I'd lose interest in you and start re-evaluating Bell?

[Farren]

Sporadic access today, at least until this evening. I've read enough of that to do this, though.

Damn it, tea leaves, are you deliberately trying to stoke my paranoia?

UNVOTE: tea leaves

I had that all typed up, and then I saw the use of !!!s again.

[Farren]

tea leaves - 2 (MT, Isis)
Isis - 1 (Bell)
GuiltyLion - 1 (tea leaves)

(assuming "Hobbes" gets tallied as a vote for GuiltyLion)

[Farren]

What do you mean? She would know who her partner is regardless of daytalk, right? So she'd know I was town, and wouldn't expect me to be fake claiming

True. But if GL was her partner, she wouldn't know for sure that *he* wouldn't fake-claim. If GL's Town, then she would know that he wouldn't CC - since she'd know that your claim was good.

I think it's additional evidence that GL is Town - that if she and GL were partners, she would not have voted for him at that point.

[Farren]

Isis, why were you trying to get Bell to hammer here?

VOTE: tea

2304 is a scumpost

bell vote with me

[Farren]

Morning Tweet, I went looking for that towncase on Isis. 2030 seemed to be as close as you got. I looked that over - the only one of the posts that really resonated with me was 1746 - that felt both genuine and town-indicative (assuming Ydrasse was Town and thus would be around to question after being eliminated, which was wrong.) The rest ... eh. It doesn't feel like you walked away from that convinced.

Where do you stand now on that?

[Farren]

I had the sense that Bell wasn't doing much solving lately. On re-read, that looks wrong. Unless you define "lately" as "in the last 48 hours or so". But I was thinking in terms of D3, which is wrong.

I don't like 2339, though - especially not after reading 1930.

Bell, what happened between those two?

[Farren]

Still like Isis but don't know if I can quantify it

So you did walk away from your case convinced?

[Farren]

400 posts of other players seeming town.

How would you describe the last 48 hours?

[Farren]

There's the word I was looking for. Frustration.

Which sums up this day in a nutshell. And it's the one thing I can think of as to why Town would make that earlier post.

[Farren]

How do you mean, an inability to keep up?

[Farren]

Which might also explain your shift towards GuiltyLion.

[Farren]

And in this setup, not having a plan doesn't work. Or at least, it's extremely sub-optimal.

GL is the one that would mindblow me the most.

All right - what about tea's self-meta? Why is Bell's self-meta compelling, but not tea leaves's self-meta?

[Farren]

Voting out GuiltyLion is a mistake for Town.

Voting out GuiltyLion before he gets replaced is an even bigger mistake. I'd be willing to bet treestumps will not be replaced, which means one less potential conftown slot trying to figure things out.

[Farren]

I didn't think it would be a hammer

Can you point to any self-meta showing that you do things like this as Town? Or otherwise convince me that this is Town|you doing this and not scum|you? Because this weakens the argument that says scum|you wouldn't play this set in a directionless fashion.

[Farren]

VOTE: Isis

Inertia is setting in.

Inertia is the enemy.

[Farren]

If you'd switched to tea leaves right there, I'd probably have gone along with you. Part of why I'm voting for you right now is that I don't think Town|you would settle for an inertia-fueled gamestate. Unless it was pointing squarely at your candidate of choice and you were confident about it. And even then, I'm thinking about how you acted earlier with regards to tea leaves. How you're acting now doesn't line up with that.

Thing is, I don't think Town|tea leaves settles either. So obviously this logic is wrong somewhere. Maybe there are non-game factors at play. Or maybe I'm underestimating the strength of the inertia. Or something else that I'm not considering. But is it fundamentally flawed, or is it just wrong with respect to one of you?

[Farren]

Well, there's a mechanic where all but one of us win or lose based on the accuracy of the townread of the person who isn't one of us. Isn't solely, though. Need to figure out a way to get around the "having to convince others you're right" bit ...

Trees make lousy vigilantes.

[Farren]

Are you already 100% convinced of Isis's alignment?

[Farren]

my reads are relatively flat, so it makes sense that I wouldn't be particularly townreadable

this game has repeatedly presented to me the paradox/conundrum/catch-22 that if you solve who the scum are and show that to people, that process will generally show people you are town. but, if you can't figure out a solve for the game, you don't have any changed probability %s on other people's flips as something to work towards, so knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that is the best thing to do instead. But, the "stuff that demonstrates that", is figuring out a solve for the game!!!!! there's a couple here and there other ways but not as many

Solving for the scum is a necessary part of being Town - or being able to recognize a correct solve, if someone else is able to do it. The fact that it helps establish one is Town is icing on the cake. "knowing your own rolecard is green and doing stuff that demonstrates that" sounds like describing LAMIST, minus the connotation of "this is scummy."

[Farren]

i feel it stronger than most other players would, I think, because my town stat sheet is pretty heavily skewed towards campaigning and canvassing. Convincing other players to vote the way I want them to is something I'm disproportionately good at/focused on/DunningKruger'ed onto (choose 2/3 that you like) and I put comparatively low effort into determining those reads are correct in the first instance. Generally it doesn't take much effort, to get a notion I believe in, and I don't work as hard as other tryhard players to make sure what I believe in is correct.

I'm having a tough time parsing this. Let's try a paraphrase and see where it gets me. Keeping the filter on high.

You're good at talking other people into getting the eliminations you want. You focus more on that than you do on trying to figure out if you're eliminating scum or not - as Town.

That's the first part. It's definitely not my playstyle, but this game does not consist of an army of clones of me. You've mentioned earlier that you've been finding it difficult to do that. That may contribute to the drift. (You may have said that as well; I don't recall). That may also contribute to a reason why you're not fighting the inertia.

Any of that wrong?

[Farren]

so the main thing I have a tendency to want to focus on is kind of nullified by having organic suspicions towards several slots, but those suspicions being countered by counterarguments from those players themselves or white knights (queue, spelled "queue", Farren complaining that that term has negative connotations even though I only want the denotation and not the connotation here). Repeatedly I've struggled with the idea of deciding that I've never scumread Hectic as scum and carried my way through to effectuating his elimination without him talking me out of it which makes me just want to pretend I didn't read any of his defenses. But that can be intellectually disingenuous and overreactive and bad. Feeding into the temptation is the knowledge that I am able to scumread Hectic correctly in the first instance, apparently, I found out during this game in the Nightmare Scum PT that he was a secret alt I grew suspicious enough of to investigate, which changed my record.

Why use the term with the connotation, if you don't want the connotation to apply?

The part about Hectic - I don't understand what you're trying to say. Restructuring to see if I can make sense of it.
- You're able to scumread Hectic correctly.
- When you've done so in the past, he's talked you out of trying to eliminate him.
- Because of #2, you want to pretend you didn't read his defenses.
- #3 is bad.

I understand why #3 would be bad. I don't understand how #2 leads to #3.
Relevance to the current situation: you're going through the loop again? Scumreading tea leaves, but he's talking his way out of it?

PEdit> wait, maybe I do understand why 2 leads to 3. If you're correctly scumreading him and he's talking you out of it, then you're avoiding eliminating scum. So ignoring the defenses means you eliminate him anyway, eliminating scum.

[Farren]

another element of being a highly persuasion-polarized player is I run into the strange effect that my ability to canvas for eliminations can often outstrap my ability to make them accurate, which means that postgame review of my losses me queda con which means "leaves me with" but it's gotten so weird to use half of Hectic's alt name, me queda con a bunch of games where I would have been more likely to win if I had done nothing at all. It's like, always going to look like that if I get a high proportion of my desired eliminations. So where other players might slightly want to get lethargic or "allow inertia to take over" as you say I have an increased propensity to do so?

This sounds like the strategy of a player that would not allow inertia to take over. Not giving up is part of being good at campaigning, yes?

And just to be clear: I am saying I think you would have an increased propensity to *not* let inertia take over as Town.

[Farren]

Do you think, in the alternative, that I give up and start going with the slow when I reach a certain point as scum? you seem to have left that side of the coin open ended.

That is a good question.

It's one of those things that I think generic|scum would do for sure - if the gamestate favors them, go with the flow. Don't rock the boat. It's something I'd do as scum.

Reminding myself again, you play this game differently than I do. But yes, I think it's something you could do.

[Farren]

UNVOTE: Isis
Not feeling thiis anymore.

[Farren]

VOTE: Bell

[Farren]

I wish I had any chance of being excused from f3

Why do you say this?

[Farren]

All right, let's ask it this way:

Why do you think there will be an F3 at all?

[Farren]

I thought you were using F3 to mean Final 3 - were you just using it as a synonym for ELo?

[Farren]

Poor little assumptions. I had such hopes for them. And then you broke them.

[Farren]

Looking at that first quote.

Timestamp there by my time zone: 7/31 7:37 PM. Context appears to be referring to Starbuck.

Bell replaces in.
Requests a prod of Starbuck (and two others).
Nullreads Starbuck.

It's got to refer to posts 698-706, as those are the only posts where Bell interacts with Starbuck in the main thread that happens before the first quote above. Bell's asking questions, but "grill" seems too ... antagonistic? pressure-y? to describe the tone of the interaction.

[Farren]

That at least makes me think that Bell believes in handling his partners with kid gloves before assessing them is the right thing to do, and deviated from that ideal while playing.

[Farren]

Second quote I don't see as indicative of much of anything.
Third quote: establishes that Bell was telling the truth about the meta. Didn't start busing until D2 - when he had Porkens's blessing to do so.

I don't see *permission* from Starbuck, but I do see a warning about it.

That leaves us with "changed his mind on how to play scum between last game and this game," ...

wait a minute. Checking something ...

I finally skimmed a little of SIN and Bell's interactions with his partner seems like a carbon copy to here. Saying his target was very scummy, yet also going out of the way to mention the possibility of a townslip, and never directly interacting with the player in question.

If Ydrasse told clidd pregame that she doesn't mind bussing that'd be viewable and I could see Bell inheriting the guidance after it clashed with clidd's style and he declined it.

This was possibility #2. Nitpick - Bell replaced Pine, not clidd. So it'd require Ydrasse and Pine having that conversation during pre-game. Pine barely interacted in this game at all, so I'd be questioning any sort of major tactical formation that could have happened during pre-game. Unlikely, I think.

Or possibility #3: Bell is Town, and telling the truth.

[Farren]

Town won that game, which would increase the possibility of Bell seeking to evolve his scumgame.

That Martyr action that killed Bell. There was a corruption mechanism where players died if they reached certain thresholds of corruption. The Martyr action basically dropped a player's corruption to zero at the cost of the user's life. Except that scum actually worked in reverse, and died if they hit 0 corruption.

The martyr mentions that if they were aiming for *Town* they'd target Bell. And then they target Bell. So that wasn't really a standard Vig kill where you're scummy and you get caught - that was more along the line of Bell being too townie. Which makes me think Bell would be *less* likely to evolve his scumgame ... it was working pretty nicely last time, but a fluke of the mechanics got him.

[Farren]

Bad logic: we're all having fun; Bell thinks people having fun is a top priority when he's scum; ergo, Bell is scum.
More bad logic: Bell was townread to death in a previous scumgame; he can be townread here; ergo, Bell is scum.

UNVOTE: Bell

My ego can't take GuiltyLion being scum. Do I really need to go back and take another look at him?

[Farren]

I'm assuming by inviting you mean unvoting.

Because the self-meta argument is sounding more believable right now after looking at SIN.

PEdit> That sounds like another invitation to make a Bad Logic argument, given what happened in Two-Fold 2d3.

[Farren]

Meta read on you is done already - I'd thought idly about going to look up what tea leaves was thinking re: starting opinions on Porkens / starbuck, but I don't see how that would change anything. I'd already stated that I thought the meta did establish that you have handled the game as scum in the past the way you said you would handle the game as scum now - leaving the possibility that you'd change your game as scum, or that you're Town. Right now, I think the latter is more likely.

GuiltyLion I haven't started yet, other than a brief look at just how long it's been since he's posted. (Answer: too long. Over a week.) I've been deliberately putting that one off in hopes that his replacement would show up.

[Farren]

209: comments that Ydrasse feels more chill than in previous games (both town and scum) games and isn't sure what to make of it.
367: doesn't like Ydrasse's pop-in and failure to comment on clidd.
369: likes tea leaves' entrance, votes Ydrasse; doesn't think she's trying to solve.

... should probably add Ydrasse to this ISO ...

395-397: Ydrasse votes GuiltyLion; says he's hyperfocusing on small details.
445: explains further progression that led to his vote (ydrasse voted clidd, stayed on clidd - clidd had provided a lot of content, but Ydrasse hadn't changed her vote or shown any interest in engaging the person she was voting for). Which further explains the bit about not liking the pop-in. <--- love this.
460: pushes tea leaves for cites about Ydrasse's meta, as tea leaves's conclusions differ from his.
463: retracts the line of questioning, no reason given.
528: calls into question Ydrasse's asking tea leaves about why Guilty feels off. This one I'm kinda eh on ... I could see it coming from Town. Wasn't wrong, though.

And now I'm remembering that I disapproved of that at the time too.

576: he reiterates his TR on Gamma, due to Gamma's TR on Ydrasse - doesn't think scum would have committed like that. Then switches vote to Dunnstral in 577.

698: is self-meta, but. Really wish I'd been able to see that post he'd made in the scum PT before it disappeared, but this strikes me as a dangerous thing to lie about, as it's entirely possible I *could* have seen it. So I'd say it's highly likely that this is true - that when he rolled scum, he had Gamma targeted as a potential miselim, which would make it less likely he'd TR Gamma if he were scum again.

Plus what I said in 717 still applies, I think.

Not going post-by-post anymore, but general feel through the read is that D1 looks pretty bloody Town overall. D2 there's something of a cessation in that, but I think that's more due to lack of presence in general than anything. The late push on Bell looks weird, but he does switch back to Ydrasse when it counts. And looking at the interactions, I can understand the push; it's only the timing that's off.

Still thinking his slot is Town.

[Farren]

Greetings, Something_Smart.

And thank you.

[Farren]

I’m willing to vote tea leaves now. I’m sorry and exasperated but you’ve missed context so many times that this is just bad faith argument at this point. Your view point is so stilted and unable to see context that i’m Having trouble seeing you as being anything other than clumsy scum.

Bell, can you give me an example of tea leaves missing context with respect to you from this game specifically? Or have all of the cases been from missing context in SIN (or other games)?

[Farren]

Unofficial vote tally:

[2] Something_Smart : Dunnstral, Isis
[2] tea leaves : Morning Tweet, Bell
[1] Bell: tea leaves

[2] Not Voting : Something_Smart, Farren

[Farren]

So the mis-contextualization here is interpreting "I would never do X (because that's not how I play)" with "I would never do X (because I'm not good enough to do it)"?

[Farren]

I thought you're voting me because you think it's scummy though? Wasn't that what your vote was for?

No the miscontextualization is from all his cases that don’t have counter arguments or an attempt to understand me attached.
This is more a failure to understand what I mean repeatedly, like he’s not entertaining the idea he could be wrong.

Because that fort sailed when he got a red role.

I thought you're voting me because you think it's scummy though? Wasn't that what your vote was for?

I still strongly suspect this is tvt.

*looks at early explanations of why I vote people*

The bolded part of 2779 and all of 2781 really do not sound like they go together. Even after taking into account 2281's explanation of your voting.
PEdit> And 2781 doesn't gel tonally with 2787. 2787 sounds like it's a scum-case in the making.
PEdit PEdit> bwuh? (2789)
PEdit PEdit PEdit> Maybe I just need to start hammering submit until this goes through. Let's try it.

[Farren]

Subtle? This feels like an unholy union of a carousel and a blender.

[Farren]

VOTE: Bell

[Farren]

Is this a G_L > bell vote?

I found your vote for S_S scummy. That was an unannounced E-1.

Pressure and evaluation votes do not mesh with E-1 unless they're announced.

[Farren]

No.

[Farren]

Unofficial vote tally:

[3] Bell: tea leaves, Farren, Isis
[2] Isis: Bell, Morning Tweet
[1] Something_Smart : Dunnstral

[1] Not Voting : Something_Smart

[Farren]

UNVOTE: Bell
VOTE: Isis

E-1.

[Farren]

I disagree. Quite strongly.
There are obvious reasons why I would move my vote back to s_s in this situation.

Besides pressure and evaluation?

[Farren]

I am deeply confused.

By what?

[Farren]

Same reason I voted for you in the first place.

And Ydrasse did the exact same thing to GuiltyLion.

PEdit> Right now, Morning Tweet, then tea leaves.

[Farren]

And S_S.

[Farren]

Which is funny, because GL's been top for a while.

[Farren]

Gut-brain desync again. Brain is insisting GL's slot is at the top of the list, for the same reasons as always. Gut is saying there hasn't been enough content from the slot and insisting that it should be lower. Bad gut, no biscuit.

[Farren]

If my reads stay the same, my vote is going back there while i think I don’t always vote for pressure. But in this case The vote came first but the questions were right behind.

If a E-1 vote is going to be cast for pressure, it's got a heck of a lot more punch to it if it's announced as E-1.

[Farren]

No one acknowledging it isn't gonna make me change my mind, guys

We already acknowledged it earlier. 2210

[Farren]

We want to chop someone who is holding oil, not someone who's covered in it.

Chopping someone who's covered in it simply means we don't get punished as harshly for our failure.

[Farren]

Providing scum with a list of who gets chopped in order is just going to make it easier for them to figure out who to prime tonight.

PEdit> Depends on the size of the bullseyes and the rings, and how good my aim is.

[Farren]

Why do you say that?

[Farren]

sorry, that was meant for Bell.

[Farren]

Ok what if your aim is reminiscent of a social deduction game where there is barely evidence of towns voting better than random chance

Still have to establish the size of the bullseyes and the rings. If the bullseye's big enough and the rings are small enough, aim becomes less important.

Still. To avoid stretching the analogy any further, let me re-word your question to something that's more likely to resonate. This actually ties into that last off-site Town game, now that I think of it. At least kinda.

In that game, I was the Jailkeeper. And I was making my picks then based on this type of logic: "If Town, this person has a decent chance of being NK'd. If scum, this person has a decent chance of thinking they're in the position where they can make the kill." Using that logic in a 9er, I missed N1 but stopped a kill N2.

Is that the sort of thing you're going for?

[Farren]

I can get into more detail if you’d like farren.

You and MT have highest town credibility.
You have tea, Isis, but not s_s in the elimination pool.

Because you have high credibility, you’re more likely to swing the elimination pool to vote where you want.
By unvoting isis and voting S_S.

I directly conflict with your opinions and this puts me in a worse position.
S_S is not voting me, which if I want to increase my shot at survival I should court.
While tea leaves is actively scum reading me.

I use this understanding of the game to helpful effect in scum games. I’m mediocre scum (I believe) but i’m Still not bad enough to vote ydrasse out the gate in those conditions.

I don’t think isis will unvote me just for unvoting her when it would be a mistake to do so. Her opinions have not budged on my slot.

This seems a reasonable analysis. Other than right now, my preferred elimination pool is just you / Isis. But that's a nitpick; I would pick you over S_S if I had to be sole arbiter between the two of you. Don't think it changes the analysis.

Which I'm guessing is your point - by directly going after S_S, you're increasing the likelihood that both he and I end up switching to you. Rather than, say, sticking with Isis in my case.

[Farren]

Farren why don't you townread me
I've felt so unguarded at various points this game

Because I keep thinking to myself, "Just because you don't play that way as scum doesn't mean she can't."

Because every time I try, something else happens - like that most recent unannounced E-1 vote you cast. That's something that to me is antithetical as Town. Yeah, I know, Town sometimes does it. It's a mistake, but Town makes mistakes.

Town is defined by a state of ignorance ever striving for knowledge, while scum is the reverse - a state of knowledge striving to maintain and feign ignorance.

And I know - not everyone plays Town the same way. That's something I have to keep reminding myself about, over and over and OVER again.

PEdit> Is anyone in control of this game? If there is, I'm not seeing it.
PEdit PEdit> yeah, we're not doing this again. *starts smashing submit*

[Farren]

I figure right now I'm at about ... 45% you, 40% Bell, 15% wildcard.

What do you mean by "difficult-to-fake sorting?"

[Farren]

Meaning eliminating Something_Smart?

[Farren]

Going to point out that with deadline looming, this is probably not the best time to be asking for extended meta-dives.

[Farren]

I've got about five more hours of sporadic access, with frequent interruptions; one more hour of dedicated access, and then I'm gone until deadline.

[Farren]

Bingle, or the other player, accidentally hammered?

[Farren]

Was Bingle scum?

[Farren]

I applaud your ability to keep your cool when losing your temper.

[Farren]

Isis felt genuine.

Is that Town-indicative in this case?

[Farren]

Enter's not here, Isis. Not this time.

Dare I ask?

[Farren]

Was expecting an entirely different type of story there.

[Farren]

UNVOTE: Isis

[Farren]

Is being parseable a bad thing?

[Farren]

Was that timer waiting for me to revote you, Bell?

[Farren]

Damn. So much for being clever.

[Farren]

Isis, is your vote real?

[Farren]

Time to summon Something_Smart, methinks.

[Farren]

Trying to count votes on this device is a waste of time. Will have to wait another hour and change.

Why Bell?

[Farren]

What targeted read were you refering to? tea leaves's read on MT, but why that specific read over any others?

[Farren]

I wasn't either, but nicknames are apparently okay, and searching for Azelf does pull up Something_Smart's avatar. And Isis said it was a serious vote, so I'm assuming it's being counted.

[Farren]

3. Abbreviations and nicknames are acceptable, as long as I can understand them.

[Farren]

But that wasn't a hammer.

[Farren]

What do you wanna do Farren

I prefer S_S because Bell intense AtE and selfmeta but maybe thats just me

S_S is at E-1. He's going against the grain in having me in his scumreads; the fact that it's PoE is irrelevant. If he were scum, he'd be risking pissing me off by doing that and hammering him. Especially given the deadline pressure, where there's pressure to just pick someone and be done with it.

Was Bell's choice similar? I was thinking scum|Bell could have gone a safer route and stuck with Isis, but with Dunnstral on S_S, is that really the riskier play?

[Farren]

How sure are you on that townread?

[Farren]

i just find it really hard to believe he speaks the way he does and has this sort of vicseral reaction as town

As town?

[Farren]

She's right.

Problem is, how invested can we expect Something_Smart to be at this point?

[Farren]

That swings both ways, though. Scum|S_S wouldn't be desperate if not invested. Town|S_S wouldn't feel that drive to figure things out if not invested. And not being invested regardless of alignment is totally understandable given when and how he replaced in.

[Farren]

He stays in the game if he's Town.

If he's scum, it's over.

[Farren]

I mean, there's no reason I can't be as invested as everyone else, just because I'm a late replacement.

However, I can't be as confident as everyone else, at least not so soon after replacing in.

This is true. But I haven't seen any signs that you are, yet. Am I wrong?

[Farren]

Wonderful. And I have ... about five minutes to make up my mind here.

[Farren]

Yeah, that's the problem. And, like I said, it swings both ways. You aren't showing the signs of being invested|scum either, so it's NAI.

[Farren]

VOTE: Something_Smart

This may either be E-1 or a hammer. I'm not sure which. But I'm sticking with it.

[Farren]

Hopefully I will wake up to a finished game. G'night, everyone.

[Farren]

*grumble* Now I'm going to want to stick around for a few minutes, as that's definitely a hammer if mine wasn't.

[Farren]

Son of a ...

Please tell me you're not pulling a reverse Ydrasse here. I am going to be annoyed if I wake up tomorrow and you flip green.

[Farren]

maybe one more quick check here after getting ready...

PEdit> I have little knowledge of Pokemon, so I'll assume that is a most serious oath indeed.

And how much time today was I spending shouting to the heavens that GL was Town? UGH.

PEdit PEdit> Suppose it comes down to the decision at the end. Doesn't matter if you spend 95% of the day flat-out wrong, if the last 5% is right.

[Farren]

ftr I would twilight troll a completed game and people should be ready for that to happen from time to time

I want the told-you-so's on that argument with Farren about Ydrasse voting during FF claims.

Yes, you get to give me an I-told-you-so. And I'm sure a few other people do as well.

At least I'm not quite as hard-headed as I used to be.

G'night for real this time! Thanks again to Something_Smart for replacing in!

(Seriously, don't dumpster this setup. Maybe tweak, but there's potential here.)

[Farren]

If it should be dumpstered it's because treestumping is bad mafia, and it probably is.

I also wasn't excited to play this setup and repped in for nonsetup reasons, so..

That's an argument that resonates a little more, I think - that scum can't get rid of threats via miseliminations without seriously shooting themselves in the foot. Maybe give them a way to do so; like a 1-shot stump-grinder or something?

[Farren]

no daytalk seems brutal when this setup is townsided on its face

This also I'd agree would be a good change to make, although frankly I'm of the opinion that scum should pretty much always have daytalk.

[Farren]

Yes, but I've never understood why. I guess it's because people paranoia themselves and forget about earlier evidence that they should be focusing on.

I'm not sure about this one. Here, at least, I wasn't being paranoid enough, until the end. Okay, I'd have hammered S_S at any time if that was my only choice, but give me that Bell/S_S choice with less time and I probably end up choosing Bell instead.

My homesite finishes an entire day-night cycle in 24 hours (usually 23 hour day, 1 hour night), and things seem reasonably balanced there. Someone (not me) is actually trying to get a game of this setup going there; if it manages to fill it'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

Which reminds me, I can actually sign up for that one now.

[Farren]

Boardgamegeek. Small werewolf community, hasn't been a lot of activity of late.

[Farren]

I think one reason it was scarier to townbin you that MT and TL didn't suffer from is feeling like you could pivot to voting any slot in the game, while MT and TL actively cornered themselves out of lines of play by more frequently stating townreads and their certainty level and the reasoning for them. You might be able to point to places in your iso where factually you were doing so; mafia constructive criticism is rough so I'm mentioning an impression off the top of my head.

I would say Farren did this even less than you, he just mega obvtowned in other ways for me day 1 so it just kind of didn't matter.

I'd say this would be pretty accurate, mostly because there were times I genuinely thought just about any slot could be scum - except for the one that actually was.

I've never been good at giving read lists, and this game was worst than most because those lists would have been changing with alarming frequency.

This game will be another stepping stone in the lesson of "No, Town is *not* more consistent." I think at the end, it came down to some combination of: MT's bit about not being able to vote Bell in good conscience; Bell's statement about slapping around and hitting bark; Dunnstral's sticking around on S_S (and being right about Ydrasse), and my lack of confidence in my own reads due to changing them every five minutes.

[Farren]

Still fun playing with you.