Micro 974: The Last of the Red-Horned Dung Beetles (Borked)

[vizIIsto]

Taly and I both claimed non-gardener (we're the only ones who bit on Bunnos massclaim thing) so now we're having our night actions vaguely directed while the rest of the town does something else. Also Bunno claimed gardener.

It provides us with a lot of info about the two of us tonight and potentially helps the sentry/doc powers get used effectively tonight and in future nights

P: nah bud you'll see. There's a reason you're lead wagon rn

You mean me? Shoot, bugspray is probably even weirder than I am then
Also, this springs a question:

@Mod: Can you update the VC?

[Something_Smart]

VC 1.5

Herta (2)- A Simple Plan, Smoke and Mirrors
Smoke and Mirrors (2)- Tayl0r Swift, Herta
Bunno (2)- vizIIsto, NorwegianboyEE
NorwegianboyEE (2)- Bunno, Taly

Not voting (1)- JohnnyFarrar

With 9 alive it takes 5 to reach a majority.

Deadline is in (expired on 2020-10-23 19:00:00)

Mod notes: Bunno V/LA weekends

Beetle Status

The Red-Horned Dung Beetle has

no caretaker.

Bunno (3)- Bunno, Smoke and Mirrors, Taly
vizIIsto (1)- vizIIsto
Tayl0r Swift (1)- Tayl0r Swift

Not voting (4)- NorwegianboyEE, JohnnyFarrar, A Simple Plan, Herta

[JohnnyFarrar]

Oh nvm. But you had the most momentum!

[vizIIsto]

@Mod: Another question: if a sentry successfully steals the beetle at night, will the new caretaker be publicly announced in thread, or simply that the beetle has a new owner?

[Something_Smart]

@Mod: Another question: if a sentry successfully steals the beetle at night, will the new caretaker be publicly announced in thread, or simply that the beetle has a new owner?

The new caretaker will be publicly announced.

[JohnnyFarrar]

This outted pairing which we'll call "the lovers", will have any doctors on it perform the operation during the night. Sentries on that pairing won't do anything to save their abilities.

So, out of

Johnny/I

, neither of us should be votes to be healed as Mafia can ALSO claim no gardener and be "functionally truthful" in that claim.

And any doctors within

Johnny/I

will be used to operating Dr. Zenkava or another player?

And any sentries within

Johnny/I

will be loose with abilities; stealing, defending, or guarding per the player's discretion?

Is this an accurate summary of your plan?

Yes, except any sentries within you should save up abiltites, in other words do nothing today. It can become handy in N3 and even confirm one of you as town later.

This is the current plan vis a vis me and Taly, meaning, and correct me if I'm wrong, that the rest of town should do the opposite. Other town sentries steal, other town doctors save?

[NorwegianboyEE]

Norwee are you taking notes there buddy? this is how it's done.

Well yeah, they are the one that inspired me to make those sort of memes in the first place.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Ay Nor gimme thoughts on bugspray

[NorwegianboyEE]

First of all their rep out was surprising. Idkk if we're allowed to speculate about it but it kinda has to be done.
Does anyone know if Bugspray tends to rep out of games if they are scum vs when town?

[JohnnyFarrar]

They outed of all their games

[NorwegianboyEE]

Ok probably not AI then.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Yeah naw. Thoughts beyond that?

Also thoughts/ prayers/ hope everything's ok bugspray

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Norwee are you taking notes there buddy? this is how it's done.

Well yeah, they are the one that inspired me to make those sort of memes in the first place.

That was “Smoke” btw @Pooky, you need to sign.

@Tayl0r didn’t you see my questions?

~Mirrors

[NorwegianboyEE]

I have the impression that town!Bugspray is usually very lynchbaity because of their strong opinions as town. While as scum they tend to be mostly fluff. I'm feeling that this might actually be town!Bugspray when looking at their ISO again.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

@bugs, @Norwee, @Herta, @Tayl0r, @A Simple Plan, can we get some current reads from all of you?

Thanks.

Can’f find meta on Herta but thinking my hydra partner could possibly be right?

Town!bugs is not usually this certain and he’s misrepping here similar to YoM2 and Norwee usually does a lot more as town than what we’re seeing from him here.

~M

@Tayl0r

~M

[Smoke and Mirrors]

They outed of all their games

Ok probably not AI then.

Yeah naw. Thoughts beyond that?

Also thoughts/ prayers/ hope everything's ok bugspray

Smoke tells me that bugs replaces out frequently.

But wow, ALL their games? That was sudden.


~M

[vizIIsto]

Alright.
Everyone.
Whatever you were discussing or planning, stop immediately.
I just thought of something that I just had to work out to see if it works, and that seems to be the case. Look At my notes:
Here's a plan for town, meta-wise:
Today, we do not vote someone out. We do not give the beetle to anyone. At night, all Sentry's attempt to steal the beetle. Since there is likely more than one Sentry, it is almost certain that the beetle will go to a Sentry because no one will be defending the beetle. All Surgeons either try to heal Zenkava, or do nothing, so they keep their heel open for anybody. What Gardeners should do, I will tell later.
The next day, when the beetle has been stolen by a Sentry (or so we can safely assume), we have a confirmed Townie. This will happen almost every time if there is more than one Sentry, because mafia can only kill one person at night.
During following Day phases, we again do NOT vote for an execution or transfer of the beetle, UNLESS the Gardeners found someone attempting to steal the beetle. That's literally the only thing we need to discuss during Day phases.
During the second night phase, all Surgeons will HEAL the current caretaker. Sentry's will DEFEND the beetle. This is again a 95% chance of keeping the caretaker the caretaker and alive. Gardeners will continue to look for suspicious activity -> since no Sentry's will attempt to steal, if they find someone stealing, we caught a scummie.
Night 3, Sentry's use their one-time ability to guard the caretaker, keeping them alive so mafia can't steal, while Surgeons reload their heal.
All this time, we DO NOT VOTE.
AT ALL.
This way we can survive four nights almost certainly, with one confTown. Also, we will discuss only the real sus activity, namely steal attempts found by Gardeners.
I know this is not a 100% guaranteed, but it does come very close, and this plan is structured and prevents a lot of unnecessary discussions. This should lead us to winning the game most of the time.

If ANYONE has any objection to this, let us know. This is something I feel NEEDS to become our main discussion topic from now on, and I want everyone to respond saying they read this and what they think.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I have the impression that town!Bugspray is usually very lynchbaity because of their strong opinions as town. While as scum they tend to be mostly fluff. I'm feeling that this might actually be town!Bugspray when looking at their ISO again.

They expressed very strong opinions in the scumgame I referenced as well and they weren’t “fluff” in that game. What bugspray games have you seen where they post fluff? Can you link them for me?

~M

[JohnnyFarrar]

I was under the impression that sentry steals were one shot

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Alright.
Everyone.
Whatever you were discussing or planning, stop immediately.
I just thought of something that I just had to work out to see if it works, and that seems to be the case. Look At my notes:
Here's a plan for town, meta-wise:
Today, we do not vote someone out. We do not give the beetle to anyone. At night, all Sentry's attempt to steal the beetle. Since there is likely more than one Sentry, it is almost certain that the beetle will go to a Sentry because no one will be defending the beetle. All Surgeons either try to heal Zenkava, or do nothing, so they keep their heel open for anybody. What Gardeners should do, I will tell later.
The next day, when the beetle has been stolen by a Sentry (or so we can safely assume), we have a confirmed Townie. This will happen almost every time if there is more than one Sentry, because mafia can only kill one person at night.
During following Day phases, we again do NOT vote for an execution or transfer of the beetle, UNLESS the Gardeners found someone attempting to steal the beetle. That's literally the only thing we need to discuss during Day phases.
During the second night phase, all Surgeons will HEAL the current caretaker. Sentry's will DEFEND the beetle. This is again a 95% chance of keeping the caretaker the caretaker and alive. Gardeners will continue to look for suspicious activity -> since no Sentry's will attempt to steal, if they find someone stealing, we caught a scummie.
Night 3, Sentry's use their one-time ability to guard the caretaker, keeping them alive so mafia can't steal, while Surgeons reload their heal.
All this time, we DO NOT VOTE.
AT ALL.
This way we can survive four nights almost certainly, with one confTown. Also, we will discuss only the real sus activity, namely steal attempts found by Gardeners.
I know this is not a 100% guaranteed, but it does come very close, and this plan is structured and prevents a lot of unnecessary discussions. This should lead us to winning the game most of the time.

If ANYONE has any objection to this, let us know. This is something I feel NEEDS to become our main discussion topic from now on, and I want everyone to respond saying they read this and what they think.

Why is more than one sentry likely? I think it’s probably either 2–2-3 or 3-3-1 right and we don’t know that the sentry isn’t the 1.

@mod, this is correct, right?

I’m not strong on understanding this setup but this post might be slightly town indicative?

~M

[vizIIsto]

I was under the impression that sentry steals were one shot

Ah yeah that's right. A bit too enthousiastic there
Still, we can do this:
Sentry's steal Night 1. That's their first one-time shot.
Surgeons heal the caretaker Night 2. It is a bit more risky now but still pretty safe.
Night 3, if there is any Sentry who does not have the beetle, uses their other one-time ability guard. This is also risky because if there is no such Sentry, mafia can kill and steal, winning the game. But because this is a plan, it is safer than not planning anything else.
Night 4 is the Surgeons' turn again.

Is this also good?

[vizIIsto]

Why is more than one sentry likely? I think it’s probably either 2–2-3 or 3-3-1 right and we don’t know that the sentry isn’t the 1.

@mod, this is correct, right?

I’m not strong on understanding this setup but this post might be slightly town indicative?

~M

According to the rules anyone has an equal chance of each role. So we could have 7 Sentry's. Or none.
But surely we have at least one!

[JohnnyFarrar]

There's no guarantee there are any sentries. Also docs lots their ability to heal after successfully operating on zen

[JohnnyFarrar]

There's no guarantee there are any sentries. Also docs lose* their ability to heal after successfully operating on zen

[vizIIsto]

There's no guarantee there are any sentries. Also docs lots their ability to heal after successfully operating on zen

In that case, Gardeners do not operate.
Also, the odds of there not being any Sentry's is 5,8%. Surely that's much better than for example handing out the beetle to someone today at 22%, likely even higher than that.