Micro 974: The Last of the Red-Horned Dung Beetles (Borked)

[vizIIsto]

There's no guarantee there are any sentries. Also docs lots their ability to heal after successfully operating on zen

In that case, *Surgeons do not operate.
Also, the odds of there not being any Sentry's is 5,8%. Surely that's much better than for example handing out the beetle to someone today at 22%, likely even higher than that.

Jeez, I have to have the role names right here.

[vizIIsto]

Alright, I'm going to bed now, but here's a quick summary of the plan I'm suggesting right now. See post 516 and further for more detailed info.

Day 1: We do not vote for execution or giving the beetle to someone.
Night 1: All Sentry's try to STEAL the beetle. Surgeons do nothing. Gardeners may select a player to target for ATTEMPTING TO STEAL THE BEETLE OR NOT.
Day 2: We have successfully stolen the beetle -> this is very likely to happen - we now have a confTown. Gardeners may or may not share if they found someone attempt to steal the beetle, but beware since for Night 1 this is not certain to be catching a scummie. This means we may not have to discuss anything substantially. More importantly: We again DO NOT vote for executions (unless for what I just said) and we DO NOT vote for an exchange of the beetle.
Night 2: Surgeons will try to HEAL the caretaker. Sentry's do nothing. Gardeners do what they did on Night 1.
Day 3: Discussion is the same as it was on Day 2, i.e. Gardeners may opt to share their findings. Note: if they found someone trying to steal the beetle, this is CONFIRMED SCUM, because all Sentry's have used their one-time steal ability during Night 1. We again DO NOT vote for executions, unless we have a confirmed scum like aforementioned, and we DO NOT vote for an exchange of the beetle.
Night 3: If there's a Sentry remaining who is not the caretaker, they use their one-time ability of GUARDING the caretaker. Surgeons do nothing. Gardeners continue their investigate work.
Day 4: Same as the previous day.
Night 4: Surgeons will have reloaded their heal and will try to HEAL the caretaker, who is likely to still be the same Sentry AND alive.

This to me seems like a foolproof, very reliable and very solid gameplan for Town.
If you have found another leak in this plan, let us know. I won't be able to respond until 12 hours from now, though.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I have the impression that town!Bugspray is usually very lynchbaity because of their strong opinions as town. While as scum they tend to be mostly fluff. I'm feeling that this might actually be town!Bugspray when looking at their ISO again.

I was under the impression that sentry steals were one shot

Ah yeah that's right. A bit too enthousiastic there
Still, we can do this:
Sentry's steal Night 1. That's their first one-time shot.
Surgeons heal the caretaker Night 2. It is a bit more risky now but still pretty safe.
Night 3, if there is any Sentry who does not have the beetle, uses their other one-time ability guard. This is also risky because if there is no such Sentry, mafia can kill and steal, winning the game. But because this is a plan, it is safer than not planning anything else.
Night 4 is the Surgeons' turn again.

Is this also good?

@Norwee, what is your current read on Herta? You may possibly be right on viz but I think you’re way off on Bunno, Taly.

Smoke is now mindmelding with me on Herta, he didn’t explain why though. I want to hear from Bunno and Taly wrt your plan and probably ASM as well.

I’m still good with keeping our vote where it is especially after your replace in, whatever we decide - unless of course we do decide to go with your plan and no execute but Herta is still my strongest scumread.

~M

[vizIIsto]

Also, I guess I can hereby
VOTE: No Lynch
and
HEAL: UNVOTE

Also, Smoke and Mirrors, you seem to be breaking my request to 'not discuss anything else besides my proposed plan'.

Lastly, please be aware that I have not read the previous 20 pages tonight; I was busy thinking out this plan. I will come back tomorrow after I've taken the time to read it, but I won't share any findings unless it turns out my plan isn't bulletproof.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

I think its pretty funny vizIIsto came into the game with the exact same thought process I had at day-start.

feels town-indicative but wouldn't bet the bank on it.

~Smoke

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Viz, everything in your plan I already laid out like a few days ago as soon as the game started.

it was rejected by most of the town already :3.

~Smoke

[JohnnyFarrar]

So this plan -
D1 No day eliminations

N1 all sentries steal
All doctors do nothing
All gardeners block? (There'd be a bunch of false positives on investigate Because of the sentries)
Townie dies likely

D2 one confirmed sentry
Still no eliminations?

N2 doctors heal caretaker
Sentries do nothing
All gardeners investigate
Another townie likely dies

D3 still one confirmed sentry
Gardeners claim if they have a result
Still no eliminations if not?

N3 sentries protect
doctors nothing
Gardeners continue to investigate

D4 one confirm sentry
Gardeners claim some more
Still no Elim if not? -

This is broken quickly by fake claims and dead sentries

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Also, I guess I can hereby
VOTE: No Lynch
and
HEAL: UNVOTE

Also, Smoke and Mirrors, you seem to be breaking my request to 'not discuss anything else besides my proposed plan'.

Lastly, please be aware that I have not read the previous 20 pages tonight; I was busy thinking out this plan. I will come back tomorrow after I've taken the time to read it, but I won't share any findings unless it turns out my plan isn't bulletproof.

Why is discussing our reads bad?

~M

[vizIIsto]

Alright so I am still up and I feel the need to respond to a few messages:

Viz, everything in your plan I already laid out like a few days ago as soon as the game started.

it was rejected by most of the town already :3.

~Smoke

So this plan -
D1 No day eliminations

N1 all sentries steal
All doctors do nothing
All gardeners block? (There'd be a bunch of false positives on investigate Because of the sentries)
Townie dies likely

D2 one confirmed sentry
Still no eliminations?

N2 doctors heal caretaker
Sentries do nothing
All gardeners investigate
Another townie likely dies

D3 still one confirmed sentry
Gardeners claim if they have a result
Still no eliminations if not?

N3 sentries protect
doctors nothing
Gardeners continue to investigate

D4 one confirm sentry
Gardeners claim some more
Still no Elim if not? -

This is broken quickly by fake claims and dead sentries

So here's the thing: Gardeners claiming on Day 2 is stupid because the steals they might have seen can be both sentries and mafia.
Yes, a townie will die, but in return we have a confTown. That is a positive exchange fmpov.
During Day phases we can base our execution votes based on the findings from mostly Gardeners.
Night 2 another townie dies yeah ok that's probably an issue. I knew I was getting overly excited
Having a confTown so early on and keeping them alive for longer than one day is valuable in exchange for the loss of one or more town members. If we do not vote to execute someone, risking executing another town member, we can go on for long enough for Gardeners to eventually find something.
During all this time the chances of mafia successfully stealing the beetle are so small in comparison to how big it usually is without a plan that it is worth in my eyes to execute this plan, even despite the few leaks you mentioned which in reality, can't be prevented otherwise.
- How likely is it that mafia does NOT get a kill on nights 1 or 2?
- How likely is it that we execute a townie? Likely, isn't it?
Fake claims are countered by the fact that it'll be found out that there's a fake claim going on. Also:

The odds of there being less than two Sentry's (so 1 or 0) is about 26%. If we have two or more sentries, the odds of mafia successfully stealing the bug on Day 1 is 1 in 42. (they kill one sentry and roleblock the other, while attempting to steal the beetle). On Day 2 and 3 this chance does not become that much bigger to the point that it is a serious risk.
If there is only 1 Sentry or none, then the odds of mafia successfully stealing increase, but because the chances of this being the case are pretty small it's better than going into Night 1 without a plan and letting everyone do whatever suits their style.

Finally, yes Smoke and Mirrors, if you really want to you can discuss reads, but we still have more than 5 days left, so don't hurry. And I've taken a quick look at what you've said at the start of this game, and it was less elaborate than my plan.
I will look further into the first few pages to see what's been said between you and the others regarding the plan. This is worth looking into for a.o.t. stuff you've said since I replaced in.

[JohnnyFarrar]

We also have a less intensive plan in effect currently based around our claimed gardener

[vizIIsto]

We also have a less intensive plan in effect currently based around our claimed gardener

Okay so again I have not read the whole game yet so I may come back on this but do you know what is the issue with this?
We can't be sure if they are Gardener.
Yes, fake claiming. Funny how you mention it's an issue in my plan ter yours voids that?
I believe my plan is to some extent more prepared against the reasons you mentioned.
Of course my plan isn't rock-solid, that's the reason this setup exists. But if you don't want to take the risks in my plan, which range anywhere from 6%-30%, in a 50/50 game, you are a wimp.

[vizIIsto]

Unless you want to claim my plan is worse than doing things randomly, of course, then you are free to make yourself look ridiculous.

[JohnnyFarrar]

Nah but at this stage with the discussion that's happened I trust and believe that the Gardener claim is legit

[Bunno]

did i do good bunno? am i getting that scummy award? <3

probably

the unique doubt I've left that norwe is scum is that this has been ridiculously easy and he's showing no resistance whatsoever.

He's like, not even attempting to turn the tables...

I'm not sure what to expect in scum!norwe in this position, I've never seen scum!him being pressured.

[Bunno]

Y u LeAvE whenever i ENTER the thread senpai!?!? i need u to coach me IN the PT and IN the THREAD

we discussed this!

we need to keep pretending we're different people

don't spoil them pls

[Bunno]

Hey Tay. What reads from those pages?

that it was super boring. youre prolly town, which is weird for me to say. not really willing to give bunno townpoints for the gambit because its mech and easy for scum to fake and because bunno likes to do that as both alignments. didnt really get much out of it tho.

ohonyo

how do you know what I play like as scum? You've never played against scum!me, neither did I play a scum game close to your register date?

[Bunno]

Hello guys! I'm viz and I'm replacing bugspray as you have probably read.

I remember reading your first post in the forum (a newbie introduction thread I think)

how nostalgic to see you here

I only remember you because of the avi though

[Bunno]

viz most of what you said was already addressed early in the game by me

There's so many holes on those plans that I won't bother to create a wall, but with me being gardener claimed already,

in YOUR PLAN

, mafia has AT ABSOLUTE MINIMUM a 16% chance of winning in N1 by selecting a random [NK & steal] target outside of me (already claimed not-sentry). If you include the fact Taly/John aren't supposed to use steal by our plan if any of they are sentries, we've a 33% chance of losing in N1 by a random NK/steal target by mafia if we miseliminate here. If we eliminate mafia today they would still have a 25% chance.

The fact every sentry would use steal in that world would make gardener investigations useless in N1 (and it's not wise for them to block in N1 in your plan because it can end up blocking a sentry and making mafia win), while if you gate sentries steal, the unique people to attempt steal are mafia therefore any player investigated that shows an attempt to steal starting from N1 is guilted. You can literally turn Gardeners into Detectives as long as you gate sentries, but in your plan their investigation power becomes useless.

I'm not even mentioning the fact that if you keep not executioning someone in dayphase you'll run out of sentries abilities to defend, and surgeons can't heal consecutively, therefore you'll get the bug stolen in N4 onwards

If you're interested in mech stuff read the early pages of this game. I address a lot of things.

[Smoke and Mirrors]

Nah but at this stage with the discussion that's happened I trust and believe that the Gardener claim is legit

+1

When Smoke initially proposed his plan he had no townreads but he keeps reiterating he tr Bunno, so I’m good with him getting the bug.

did i do good bunno? am i getting that scummy award? <3

probably

the unique doubt I've left that norwe is scum is that this has been ridiculously easy and he's showing no resistance whatsoever.

He's like, not even attempting to turn the tables...

I'm not sure what to expect in scum!norwe in this position, I've never seen scum!him being pressured.

I also like this post. Smoke definitely isn’t tr Norwee but he also thinks I could possibly be right about him being lhf, so we’re currently null on that slot. I kind of think scum!Norwee would be attempting to push some kind of agenda but so far, I don’t think we’re really seeing that.

I also don’t feel Viz is scummy so he possibly might get townpoints for that. I’d feel a lot better about him if he unvoted Bunno.

~M

[Smoke and Mirrors]

-Did Tayl0r ever explain the S&M vote from page two? I get E-1 isn't ideal on page two, but what's the reasoning to not just unvote?

Another thing, I’d like Tayl0r to address.

~M

[Bunno]

I kind of think scum!Norwee would be attempting to push some kind of agenda but so far, I don’t think we’re really seeing that.

What weirds me most isn't the fact scum!Norwe should be attempting to push an agenda

is why town!Norwe would be letting me pile up votes on him and get the bug if he really believes I'm scum

Look, if he has this firm belief I'm scum, he should understand I'm in the path to victory here in D1. Why is he being so non-chalant about it?

His actions are a bit off for what you would expect from scum, but it's even harder to understand why town would act like this.

[Bunno]

If I was scum I'm 2 votes away from victory.

Even supposing I wouldn't get the bug, there's already 3 players suspecting his slot and siding with me

John seems to trust me as well I think?

town!Norwe should feel at least slightly more pressured in the situation but he seems pretty chill about it, almost as if he knew that me getting the bug has no real consequence.

[Bunno]

Don't let me saying "this is unexpected" about Norwe fool you into thinking his slot is anything but scummy in my eyes at the moment

I just don't know, I definitely can't wrap my head around town!Norwe thinking I'm powerwolfing but still letting me run the show

but I similarly have problem in a scenario where scum!Norwe instantly gives up once I'm on him...

The later seems more likely than the former but...I'm mulling it over.

Norwe you could explain your thought process here by the way

[Bunno]

Bugspray was at least indignant about me receiving the bug, but Norwe isn't. He's only caring about this game from a "I must have town reads, scum reads" perspective, but even though he seems so confident on me being scum he isn't attempting to defuse me getting the bug, differently from bugspray that wanted to nom themselves at least.

If I'm scum this game is being almost won by me at this point, but he still hasn't tried to get people out of healing me.

He clearly understands the bug mechanic as well, in one of his posts he even asks "who should we heal".

[Bunno]

His top town read S&M is healing me, but in no moment he tried to talk to them or suggest healing them. Almost as if he's not confident he can get the bug himself therefore it doesn't matter who receives it, even if currently it looks like his top scum read will get it.

There's probably no other objectively scummier behavior than what Norwe has done so far?