Micro 974: The Last of the Red-Horned Dung Beetles (Borked)

[vizIIsto]

Hello guys! I'm viz and I'm replacing bugspray as you have probably read.

I haven't played a lot of mafia the past... 18 months? I guess it's been that long. Anyways, time to polish the rust and clean the dust and brighten this game up!
It's getting pretty late here, and I haven't done much in this game as far as analyzing besides looking at the setup and stuff, so I'll spend the rest of this night taking a look at what's been said so far with one eye and watching the telly with my other eye, prepare some sort of game plan (idk) and tomorrow morning I'll get back to you with my ideas and opinions on this game, as well as answer any questions you may want to ask me

And no, JohnnyFarrar, don't expect me to be any less weird than bugspray. I'm sure I can top it

[vizIIsto]

Taly and I both claimed non-gardener (we're the only ones who bit on Bunnos massclaim thing) so now we're having our night actions vaguely directed while the rest of the town does something else. Also Bunno claimed gardener.

It provides us with a lot of info about the two of us tonight and potentially helps the sentry/doc powers get used effectively tonight and in future nights

P: nah bud you'll see. There's a reason you're lead wagon rn

You mean me? Shoot, bugspray is probably even weirder than I am then
Also, this springs a question:

@Mod: Can you update the VC?

[vizIIsto]

@Mod: Another question: if a sentry successfully steals the beetle at night, will the new caretaker be publicly announced in thread, or simply that the beetle has a new owner?

[vizIIsto]

Alright.
Everyone.
Whatever you were discussing or planning, stop immediately.
I just thought of something that I just had to work out to see if it works, and that seems to be the case. Look At my notes:
Here's a plan for town, meta-wise:
Today, we do not vote someone out. We do not give the beetle to anyone. At night, all Sentry's attempt to steal the beetle. Since there is likely more than one Sentry, it is almost certain that the beetle will go to a Sentry because no one will be defending the beetle. All Surgeons either try to heal Zenkava, or do nothing, so they keep their heel open for anybody. What Gardeners should do, I will tell later.
The next day, when the beetle has been stolen by a Sentry (or so we can safely assume), we have a confirmed Townie. This will happen almost every time if there is more than one Sentry, because mafia can only kill one person at night.
During following Day phases, we again do NOT vote for an execution or transfer of the beetle, UNLESS the Gardeners found someone attempting to steal the beetle. That's literally the only thing we need to discuss during Day phases.
During the second night phase, all Surgeons will HEAL the current caretaker. Sentry's will DEFEND the beetle. This is again a 95% chance of keeping the caretaker the caretaker and alive. Gardeners will continue to look for suspicious activity -> since no Sentry's will attempt to steal, if they find someone stealing, we caught a scummie.
Night 3, Sentry's use their one-time ability to guard the caretaker, keeping them alive so mafia can't steal, while Surgeons reload their heal.
All this time, we DO NOT VOTE.
AT ALL.
This way we can survive four nights almost certainly, with one confTown. Also, we will discuss only the real sus activity, namely steal attempts found by Gardeners.
I know this is not a 100% guaranteed, but it does come very close, and this plan is structured and prevents a lot of unnecessary discussions. This should lead us to winning the game most of the time.

If ANYONE has any objection to this, let us know. This is something I feel NEEDS to become our main discussion topic from now on, and I want everyone to respond saying they read this and what they think.

[vizIIsto]

I was under the impression that sentry steals were one shot

Ah yeah that's right. A bit too enthousiastic there
Still, we can do this:
Sentry's steal Night 1. That's their first one-time shot.
Surgeons heal the caretaker Night 2. It is a bit more risky now but still pretty safe.
Night 3, if there is any Sentry who does not have the beetle, uses their other one-time ability guard. This is also risky because if there is no such Sentry, mafia can kill and steal, winning the game. But because this is a plan, it is safer than not planning anything else.
Night 4 is the Surgeons' turn again.

Is this also good?

[vizIIsto]

Why is more than one sentry likely? I think it’s probably either 2–2-3 or 3-3-1 right and we don’t know that the sentry isn’t the 1.

@mod, this is correct, right?

I’m not strong on understanding this setup but this post might be slightly town indicative?

~M

According to the rules anyone has an equal chance of each role. So we could have 7 Sentry's. Or none.
But surely we have at least one!

[vizIIsto]

There's no guarantee there are any sentries. Also docs lots their ability to heal after successfully operating on zen

In that case, Gardeners do not operate.
Also, the odds of there not being any Sentry's is 5,8%. Surely that's much better than for example handing out the beetle to someone today at 22%, likely even higher than that.

[vizIIsto]

There's no guarantee there are any sentries. Also docs lots their ability to heal after successfully operating on zen

In that case, *Surgeons do not operate.
Also, the odds of there not being any Sentry's is 5,8%. Surely that's much better than for example handing out the beetle to someone today at 22%, likely even higher than that.

Jeez, I have to have the role names right here.

[vizIIsto]

Alright, I'm going to bed now, but here's a quick summary of the plan I'm suggesting right now. See post 516 and further for more detailed info.

Day 1: We do not vote for execution or giving the beetle to someone.
Night 1: All Sentry's try to STEAL the beetle. Surgeons do nothing. Gardeners may select a player to target for ATTEMPTING TO STEAL THE BEETLE OR NOT.
Day 2: We have successfully stolen the beetle -> this is very likely to happen - we now have a confTown. Gardeners may or may not share if they found someone attempt to steal the beetle, but beware since for Night 1 this is not certain to be catching a scummie. This means we may not have to discuss anything substantially. More importantly: We again DO NOT vote for executions (unless for what I just said) and we DO NOT vote for an exchange of the beetle.
Night 2: Surgeons will try to HEAL the caretaker. Sentry's do nothing. Gardeners do what they did on Night 1.
Day 3: Discussion is the same as it was on Day 2, i.e. Gardeners may opt to share their findings. Note: if they found someone trying to steal the beetle, this is CONFIRMED SCUM, because all Sentry's have used their one-time steal ability during Night 1. We again DO NOT vote for executions, unless we have a confirmed scum like aforementioned, and we DO NOT vote for an exchange of the beetle.
Night 3: If there's a Sentry remaining who is not the caretaker, they use their one-time ability of GUARDING the caretaker. Surgeons do nothing. Gardeners continue their investigate work.
Day 4: Same as the previous day.
Night 4: Surgeons will have reloaded their heal and will try to HEAL the caretaker, who is likely to still be the same Sentry AND alive.

This to me seems like a foolproof, very reliable and very solid gameplan for Town.
If you have found another leak in this plan, let us know. I won't be able to respond until 12 hours from now, though.

[vizIIsto]

Also, I guess I can hereby
VOTE: No Lynch
and
HEAL: UNVOTE

Also, Smoke and Mirrors, you seem to be breaking my request to 'not discuss anything else besides my proposed plan'.

Lastly, please be aware that I have not read the previous 20 pages tonight; I was busy thinking out this plan. I will come back tomorrow after I've taken the time to read it, but I won't share any findings unless it turns out my plan isn't bulletproof.

[vizIIsto]

Alright so I am still up and I feel the need to respond to a few messages:

Viz, everything in your plan I already laid out like a few days ago as soon as the game started.

it was rejected by most of the town already :3.

~Smoke

So this plan -
D1 No day eliminations

N1 all sentries steal
All doctors do nothing
All gardeners block? (There'd be a bunch of false positives on investigate Because of the sentries)
Townie dies likely

D2 one confirmed sentry
Still no eliminations?

N2 doctors heal caretaker
Sentries do nothing
All gardeners investigate
Another townie likely dies

D3 still one confirmed sentry
Gardeners claim if they have a result
Still no eliminations if not?

N3 sentries protect
doctors nothing
Gardeners continue to investigate

D4 one confirm sentry
Gardeners claim some more
Still no Elim if not? -

This is broken quickly by fake claims and dead sentries

So here's the thing: Gardeners claiming on Day 2 is stupid because the steals they might have seen can be both sentries and mafia.
Yes, a townie will die, but in return we have a confTown. That is a positive exchange fmpov.
During Day phases we can base our execution votes based on the findings from mostly Gardeners.
Night 2 another townie dies yeah ok that's probably an issue. I knew I was getting overly excited
Having a confTown so early on and keeping them alive for longer than one day is valuable in exchange for the loss of one or more town members. If we do not vote to execute someone, risking executing another town member, we can go on for long enough for Gardeners to eventually find something.
During all this time the chances of mafia successfully stealing the beetle are so small in comparison to how big it usually is without a plan that it is worth in my eyes to execute this plan, even despite the few leaks you mentioned which in reality, can't be prevented otherwise.
- How likely is it that mafia does NOT get a kill on nights 1 or 2?
- How likely is it that we execute a townie? Likely, isn't it?
Fake claims are countered by the fact that it'll be found out that there's a fake claim going on. Also:

The odds of there being less than two Sentry's (so 1 or 0) is about 26%. If we have two or more sentries, the odds of mafia successfully stealing the bug on Day 1 is 1 in 42. (they kill one sentry and roleblock the other, while attempting to steal the beetle). On Day 2 and 3 this chance does not become that much bigger to the point that it is a serious risk.
If there is only 1 Sentry or none, then the odds of mafia successfully stealing increase, but because the chances of this being the case are pretty small it's better than going into Night 1 without a plan and letting everyone do whatever suits their style.

Finally, yes Smoke and Mirrors, if you really want to you can discuss reads, but we still have more than 5 days left, so don't hurry. And I've taken a quick look at what you've said at the start of this game, and it was less elaborate than my plan.
I will look further into the first few pages to see what's been said between you and the others regarding the plan. This is worth looking into for a.o.t. stuff you've said since I replaced in.

[vizIIsto]

We also have a less intensive plan in effect currently based around our claimed gardener

Okay so again I have not read the whole game yet so I may come back on this but do you know what is the issue with this?
We can't be sure if they are Gardener.
Yes, fake claiming. Funny how you mention it's an issue in my plan ter yours voids that?
I believe my plan is to some extent more prepared against the reasons you mentioned.
Of course my plan isn't rock-solid, that's the reason this setup exists. But if you don't want to take the risks in my plan, which range anywhere from 6%-30%, in a 50/50 game, you are a wimp.

[vizIIsto]

Unless you want to claim my plan is worse than doing things randomly, of course, then you are free to make yourself look ridiculous.