mystery box of silver 10. (done)

[MathBlade]

At this point can’t put a number on it but if we can’t find an exe Target I would settle for the ascetic claim. And ffs no if there is a vig their shot was horrible and they should feel bad and fix their reads. Outing more power with how many claims there are would net us at best setup spec.

[Titus]

I don't like jjh's claim either, but I don't want to lynch him. I feel this setup was "balanced" by what the mods expected us to do and jjh is a bait lynch. If he turns out to be the lynch today so be it. Setup spec isn't the greatest reason in the world.

[Titus]

Anyway, I am home now. VCA notes time.

[MathBlade]

I don't like jjh's claim either, but I don't want to lynch him. I feel this setup was "balanced" by what the mods expected us to do and jjh is a bait lynch. If he turns out to be the lynch today so be it. Setup spec isn't the greatest reason in the world.

I agree. It’s not the greatest reason.

That’s why I said if we can’t find a exe target he’s a compromise.

However 6 masons I just have a hard time seeing approved. Like I get you probably believe that but if you’re town there is no harm waiting to be confirmed. I just don’t get the panic. If you’re truthtelling, you could have just claimed neighborizer and saw who pushed your conf town. Games aren’t meant to be ran as an irc chat

[PlusJOYED]

does anyone else feel like an ascetic claim is really out of place here?

yes absolutely

[April Ludgate]

A50 check the hood.

Pedit: The hood started with me, Nero, mastina. We added A50.

This feels like asking A50 to go along with a gambit and reasoning it to him.

You know I would NEVER do that, as either alignment. So, unless you think me & Titus are scum TOGETHER you need to be patient with this.

I specifically think that you’re town if Titus is scum.

And Titus has a poor scum read and pushing my slot after I have a confirmed accurate result.

So then it becomes your job to have her see the light is if she is town, to bridge the gap.

[PlusJOYED]

I'm kinda lost on the whole mason thing myself. The story feels likes its changed a lot

[schadd_]

Mod: Is cult possible or is that epic bastard?

i guess i would say the game is also not even regular bastard. there are no cults or alignment changes

[PlusJOYED]

Mod: Is cult possible or is that epic bastard?

i guess i would say the game is also not even regular bastard. there are no cults or alignment changes

Thank you

[April Ludgate]

Especially because Titus is failing to consider being on the Samantha wagon could actually be heavily town indicative based on Multiball possibility/actually might be scum still, meaning I would be getting scum pushed for a correct read.

That poor VCA by Titus is reasoning beyond to doubt her.

Town Blocking Plus, Morning Mage, Taylor, and A50 can join in, but the fancy snacks aren’t for you. You just get the regular snacks.

[Tayl0r Swift]

so schadd is actually aligned with the cult and titus is cult leader?

[MathBlade]

so schadd is actually aligned with the cult and titus is cult leader?

Uhm *facepalm* Schadd is the moderator.

[April Ludgate]

does anyone else feel like an ascetic claim is really out of place here?

Nah, it goes well with Loyal/Disloyal and Motion orientated roles like MD/Tracker.

[Tayl0r Swift]

hi mathblade, nice to meet you. im taylor swift.

[Titus]

Spoiler: VCA methodology

1. Establish Assumptions and Methodology
2. Gather Data
3. Post Data
4. Do analysis

Spoiler: Assumptions

1. Nero Cain, Mastina, and Titus are town. (Will change this upon release, just doing the pure version in here.) - Well nevermind on this one.
2. The Scum Team has at least 4 members. [Based on the revelations from Gamma in post chat]
3. The Scum Team has less than 7 members. [Arbitrary assumption based on Gamma's rants.]
4. Gamma is a weaker role on the scumteam given he's one shot alien.
5. Given the number of counterwagons, scum were trying not to have one of their own go down.

Spoiler: Methodology

1. Get enough VCs to cover the space of the game. Approximately one every 10 pages.
2. Post all VCs into the thread or personal private note topic as this is night phase. They need to be colored.
3. Look at each VC to see motivations. Ask questions assuming both scum v town or scum v scum. (Note: T v T would be asked but we know Gamma flipped scum.)
4. As the VCs progress, look at prior knowledge to get a complete picture. (For instance if VC 1.4 clears someone, redo 1.2 analysis.)
5. Summarize conclusions.

Spoiler: Vote count 1.1

Vecna (2): DiamondSentinel, Nero Cain
Tayl0r Swift (2): DrDolittle, PlusJOYED
Morning Mage (2): Pickaxe Pete, TheGoldenParadox
Almost50 (2): Menalque, Vecna
jjh927 (2): Chemist1422, shellyc
superbowl9 (2): EchoVision, Tayl0r Swift
DiamondSentinel (1): Ban Hydras
shellyc (1): NorwegianboyEE
PlusJOYED (1): Morning Mage
NorwegianboyEE (1): superbowl9

not voting (7): Bell, mastina, April Ludgate, Almost50,

Gamma Emerald

, jjh927,

Titus

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.2

jjh927 (2): Chemist1422, shellyc
PlusJOYED (2): Morning Mage, Menalque
Nero Cain (2): superbowl9, Tayl0r Swift
superbowl9 (2): NorwegianboyEE, Nero Cain
Menalque (2): jjh927, EchoVision
Vecna (1): DiamondSentinel
Tayl0r Swift (1): DrDolittle
Morning Mage (1): Pickaxe Pete
Almost50 (1): Vecna
Ban Hydras (1): TheGoldenParadox
mastina (1): PlusJOYED
Chemist1422 (1): Ban Hydras
TheGoldenParadox (1): Bell
Bell (1): mastina

not voting (4): April Ludgate, Almost50,

Gamma Emerald

,

Titus

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.2a – End of 34, top of 35

jjh927 (4): Chemist1422, shellyc, superbowl9,

Titus

PlusJOYED (2): Menalque, thegoldenparadox
superbowl9 (1): Nero Cain
Menalque (3): jjh927, EchoVision, Tayl0r Swift
Vecna (1): DiamondSentinel
Tayl0r Swift (1): DrDolittle
Morning Mage (1): Pickaxe Pete
Almost50 (1): Vecna
Chemist1422 (1): Ban Hydras
TheGoldenParadox (2): Bell, Morning Mage,
Bell (1): mastina
EchoVision (1) : NorwegianboyEE,

not voting (4): April Ludgate, Almost50,

Gamma Emerald

, plusjoyed

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.3

Gamma Emerald

(8): Almost50, Ban Hydras, Nero Cain, Pickaxe Pete, Menalque,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE
Ban Hydras (3): PlusJOYED, DiamondSentinel, Chemist1422
jjh927 (2): shellyc, Bell
Menalque (2): jjh927,

Gamma Emerald

PlusJOYED (1): TheGoldenParadox
Tayl0r Swift (1): DrDolittle
Almost50 (1): Vecna
TheGoldenParadox (1): Morning Mage
Bell (1): mastina
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision
DiamondSentinel (1): Tayl0r Swift

not voting (1): April Ludgate

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.3a – End of 58/Top of 59

Gamma Emerald

(8): Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete, Menalque,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, shellyc, mastina
Ban Hydras (5): PlusJOYED, DiamondSentinel, Chemist1422, TheGoldenParadox, Nero Cain
Menalque (2): jjh927,

Gamma Emerald

Almost50 (1): Vecna
TheGoldenParadox (1): Morning Mage
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision
DiamondSentinel (1): Tayl0r Swift
NorwegianboyEE (2): Almost50, DrDolitte,
not voting (2): April Ludgate, Bell

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.4

Gamma Emerald

(8): Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete, Menalque,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, mastina, Morning Mage
Ban Hydras (6): PlusJOYED, DiamondSentinel, Chemist1422, Nero Cain, shellyc,

Gamma Emerald

NorwegianboyEE (3): Almost50, DrDolittle, TheGoldenParadox
Menalque (1): jjh927
Almost50 (1): Vecna
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision
DiamondSentinel (1): Tayl0r Swift

not voting (2): April Ludgate, Bell

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.4a - End of 80/Top of 81

Gamma Emerald

(8): Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete, Menalque,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, mastina, Morning Mage
Ban Hydras (6): PlusJOYED, DiamondSentinel, Chemist1422, Nero Cain, shellyc,

Gamma Emerald

NorwegianboyEE (4): Almost50, DrDolittle, TheGoldenParadox, Tayl0r Swift
Menalque (1): jjh927
Almost50 (1): Vecna
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision
not voting (2): April Ludgate, Bell

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.5

Gamma Emerald

(6): Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, mastina
Ban Hydras (5): PlusJOYED, DiamondSentinel, Chemist1422, shellyc,

Gamma Emerald

shellyc (5): April Ludgate, Morning Mage, Almost50, Menalque, Nero Cain
NorwegianboyEE (3): DrDolittle, TheGoldenParadox, Tayl0r Swift
Menalque (1): jjh927
Almost50 (1): Vecna
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision

not voting (1): Bell

Spoiler: Vote Count 1.6

Gamma Emerald

(10): Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, mastina, Nero Cain, Menalque, PlusJOYED, Chemist1422
Ban Hydras (3): DiamondSentinel, shellyc,

Gamma Emerald

shellyc (3): April Ludgate, Morning Mage, Almost50
NorwegianboyEE (3): DrDolittle, TheGoldenParadox, Tayl0r Swift
Menalque (1): jjh927
Almost50 (1): Vecna
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision

not voting (1): Bell

Spoiler: D1 End

Gamma Emerald

(12): Ban Hydras, Pickaxe Pete,

Titus

, superbowl9, NorwegianboyEE, mastina, Nero Cain, Menalque, PlusJOYED, Chemist1422, TheGoldenParadox, DiamondSentinel
shellyc (3): April Ludgate, Morning Mage, Almost50
Ban Hydras (2): shellyc,

Gamma Emerald

NorwegianboyEE (2): DrDolittle, Tayl0r Swift
Menalque (1): jjh927
Almost50 (1): Vecna
April Ludgate (1): EchoVision

not voting (1): Bell

Spoiler: General Observations and Assumptions

The VCA starts seriously at 1.3. That's when the Gamma wagon took off. The jjh wagon peeled off into the gamma wagon for the most part.
The Menalque counter does not show up for the large part in this VCA. Perhaps it never got steam other than a few random people popping on and off making it appear mentally bigger than it was.
The wagons were largely static since the Gamma wagon started. Wagons rarely peeled off from each other. This suggests that one of the counterwagons at least was scum as well.
This also suggests scum wanted to save Gamma.
Gamma has a weaker scumteam role.
Ban Hydras is likely a town wagon, but not necessarily. The presence of Gamma on the wagon is the sole reason I have for any possible doubt there. Gamma's vote could be a reason not to vote Ban Hydras. We'll see how the votes stack up in general once I factor in the known likely knowledge.
Known likely knowledge is defined as A50 likely being town of somesort and to a weaker extent superbowl9. I don't completely trust their claim but I doubt they are group scum.
This also assumes a scumteam of 4+ given Gamma's last confession.
This also assumes some form of secondary third party, and that my VCA will likely not catch them.
A counterwagon is defined as 3+ voters as caught in my VCs.
This VCA will look at counter voters, people on Gamma, and stragglers. Someone may show up in multiple categories depending on their position in the VCs. If so, the summary will be repeated twice. Each individual is getting their own VCA analysis to make up for the lack of data points due to only one day being completed.

Spoiler: Players on Counters

• 1.3 - Ban Hydras
  • Plusjoyed - Scum rarely start counterwagons to themselves unless Ban Hydras is a weaker scumrole than Gamma, we can confidently slot Plusjoyed as town. His vote remained pretty static until 1.6 where he voted for Gamma to end the day. He could have easily jumped to a counterwagon to continue the day and didn't. Strong town lean.
    
  • Diamond Sentinel - For the same reasons, I would put DS as strong town here. Personality wise DS being taken advantage of by the scum team to push Ban Hydras makes sense. Strong town lean.
    
  • Chemist1422- This is the first vote I feel has a realistic possibility of being scum. Swinging a second wagon requires momentum. Chemist seems pretty sheepy to Plusjoyed. Push him to see if he has opinions different than Pushjoy. Lean scum.
• 1.3a - Ban Hydras
  • The Golden Paradox - TGP shifts from Ban Hydras to NorweiganboyEE. I suspect that TGP and Norweigan are opposite alignments. See my conclusions about Norweiganboy to see my conclusions here if I forget to update this.
    
  • Nero Cain - I doubt Nero Cain is scum because his vote hopping shows independent thought and his vote move to restart the Gamma wagon was the big indicator that none of the other wagons were going through. Strong town

• 1.4 - Ban hydras
  • shellyc - The counterwagon on shellyc is lead by people who were largely stragglers until 1.5. So Gun to My Head town based on the votes of other people. Shelly also played a part in keeping the gamma wagon at eight when others jumped off. Moderate town.

• 1.4 NorweiganboyEE
  • Almost50 - He started the wagon on scum, even if he wound up getting off. This alone is worth a townread for now. His votes do indicate a fair amount of shopping for an alternative wagon. If it wasn't for his early vote and his claim, I would likely be SRing this slot. Right now, weak town.
    
  • DrDolittle - Fits straight up to his name. Would lynch. Below null but not really a full on scumread. If a vig shot here, I wouldn't exactly cry.

• 1.4a - NorweiganboyEE
  • Tayl0r Swift - Starts off by voting prob town Menalque (more on this later) and then still straggle voting Diamond Sentinel. If NorweiganboyEE is town, then Tayl0r was likely the holdout vote to try and swing a town mislynch or bus a weaker scum role. Probably scum.

• 1.5 - shellyc
  General thoughts: Another counter wagon here is surprising since it's the third at the same time. I expect a lot of the wagon to be the opposing alignment as shelly. Right now given I suspect shelly town, this ought to have more scum than average.
  • April Ludgate - Their first vote is on a fresh counterwagon which looks to be to try and shake up the game. Weak scum. For those of you who like ISO dives and that type of content, if she defends Gamma, there is a high probability of hitting scum here.
    
  • Morning Mage - Morning Mage was on stragglers first and then jumped to Gamma. He jumps off onto a counterwagon that forms at the last second. If April isn't scum, high odds that MM is scum. I'd be shocked if both were scum but I can't rule it out given the scummy vote patterns.
    
  • Menalque - He's an earlyish voter on Gamma, but jumps off when the shellyc wagon starts to form. If Menalque is scum, it would explain why the wagon didn't take. Scum overload. Right now in a watchlist category, same as AA.

Spoiler: Players on Gamma only

• Ban Hydras - I feel relatively comfortable calling this slot town. Sure it's theoretically possible that town guessed right on both wagons and that caused the excess in counterwagons. I would expect more scum on the Ban Hydras wagon if Ban Hydras was a weaker scumrole than Gamma. So that leaves Ban Hydras being a stronger scumrole than Gamma. So more scum would favor Gamma. That doesn't make sense because of the way town peeled off the wagon and how players got on the wagon at the end. Ban Hydras also wouldn't start out hyperbussing. Damn near locktown but not quite due to a theoretical possibility.
  
• Pickaxe Pete - Largely quiet fourth on the initial wagon. Might be a bus that couldn't find a way off. Weak scum.
  
• superbowl9 - I am straight null here. Middle of the wagon, didn't swing, claimed mason though (not sure if fake), lack of wagon history. This will sort itself out. Not lynch for now but eyes on. Pretty sure it's moonlogic not to trust superbowl but I don't.
  
• mastina - Lock town, big part in forcing the EoD.

Spoiler: players on insignificant wagons

• EchoVision - Posting elsewhere. Requested replacement. This indicates he couldn't keep up with the volume.
  
• Vecna - True Null, siteflaked. Also requested replacement. Sort later.
  
• jjh927 - Pushed Menalque then fell off the face of the earth. Few posts too. Could be real life. Needs to step it up. Wouldn't cry if this was vigged or lynched. Just don't ignore it. No coasters allowed. This isn't a tabletop game.
  
• Bell - My methodology to create the VCs did pick up some votes showing he did vote, but he wouldn't commit to anything. Weak scum. Watch this.

Spoiler: Final Conclusions

Town or Town Aligned in someway shape or form (not in order of strength)
Titus
Plusjoyed
Diamond Sentinel
Nero Cain
shellyc
A50
Ban Hydras
mastina
Menalque

Uncertain votes and bullets will tell or time will
NorweiganboyEE
The Golden Paradox
superbowl9
Bell

Null would lynch
DrDolittle
EchoVision
Vecna
jjh927


Lean Scum
Chemist1422
April Ludgate
Morning Mage
Pickaxe Pete

Probably Scum
Tayl0r Swift

[Titus]

If you're going to challenge my VCA as poor, challenge its reasoning. I have no problem being critiqued but calling it poor because you don't like the results is a classic scum move.

[MathBlade]

Especially because Titus is failing to consider being on the Samantha wagon could actually be heavily town indicative based on Multiball possibility/actually might be scum still, meaning I would be getting scum pushed for a correct read.

That poor VCA by Titus is reasoning beyond to doubt her.

Town Blocking Plus, Morning Mage, Taylor, and A50 can join in, but the fancy snacks aren’t for you. You just get the regular snacks.

I really want to see what Mastina thinks. Mastina while great at scum isn’t the best liar. There’s concrete facts she has to respond to. Between that and A50 I think it will become clear.

Pedit lol I doubt a superstar has time to play this but if you do hi! I have no idea what this means.
Pedit 2 will read Titus’s wall now

[Titus]

Now, I'm going to update that knowing Norway is town.

[April Ludgate]

If you're going to challenge my VCA as poor, challenge its reasoning. I have no problem being critiqued but calling it poor because you don't like the results is a classic scum move.

I disagree.

If anything, me denouncing it on the basis of the quality of the VCA rather than the VCA itself is more indicative of townMe.

You have failed to use the VCA in a throwing out net kind of way, and instead are grabbing fish, and just squeezing guts out to see the colors, which is how VCA gets wrecked by any scum capable of swimming through the holes in the net.

VCA is more of a big net, filtration system, and you’re using it like a harpoon gun.

[Titus]

Ok knowing Norway was town, then scum were definitely concerned about overloading the wagon/being caught off gamma/on ban hydras and waiting for town to move.
We know Ban Hydras was town.
We know Melanque was town.

We know based on these conclusions the Army was largely ineffective and could not get a wagon going. The wagons stalled out when scum got on. More scumpoints to Taylor Swift or Golden Paradox.

I'll revise this if Shellyc confirms as town or scum shortly.

But my bet is scum were passive looking for a wagon. That didn't work so they took an aggressive path today.

[MathBlade]

2. The Scum Team has at least 4 members. [Based on the revelations from Gamma in post chat]
3. The Scum Team has less than 7 members. [Arbitrary assumption based on Gamma's rants.]
4. Gamma is a weaker role on the scumteam given he's one shot alien.
5. Given the number of counterwagons, scum were trying not to have one of their own go down.

These assumptions are flawed.

You can only rely on scum spew pre being caught not post. No burden of proof met especially with how public cop flipped. If you’re town you should redo this and assume multi-ball as an option. VCA should be done with as few of assumptions as possible. This looks like you’ve convinced yourself an outed scum was honest. It’s possible he was but it’s possible he wasn’t. Reading the rest

[Titus]

If you're going to challenge my VCA as poor, challenge its reasoning. I have no problem being critiqued but calling it poor because you don't like the results is a classic scum move.

I disagree.

If anything, me denouncing it on the basis of the quality of the VCA rather than the VCA itself is more indicative of townMe.

You have failed to use the VCA in a throwing out net kind of way, and instead are grabbing fish, and just squeezing guts out to see the colors, which is how VCA gets wrecked by any scum capable of swimming through the holes in the net.

VCA is more of a big net, filtration system, and you’re using it like a harpoon gun.

Well if you think my VCA has flaws, why don't you put forth what the army was doing and who the scumteam is?

[Tayl0r Swift]

If you're going to challenge my VCA as poor, challenge its reasoning. I have no problem being critiqued but calling it poor because you don't like the results is a classic scum move.

its clearly very poor because it has me as scum!

[April Ludgate]

Be sure of when I say, it is most definitely not the results of said VCA, it’s the process and application of it, especially considering you left out and ignored multiple scenarios, such as the Samantha slot possibly being scum, such as multiball.

So I’m not arguing your results, I’m arguing the process and application thus the result is voided regardless.

I use VCA essentially every game, you don’t get definitive’s this early, you get hypotheticals, and you failed to amuse the idea of scum making any sort of action anywhere, which is highly unlikely, and is an action in and of itself to withhold action.

[MathBlade]

Post all VCs into the thread or personal private note topic as this is night phase. They need to be colored.
3. Look at each VC to see motivations. Ask questions assuming both scum v town or scum v scum. (Note: T v T would be asked but we know Gamma flipped scum.)
4. As the VCs progress, look at prior knowledge to get a complete picture. (For instance if VC 1.4 clears someone, redo 1.2 analysis.)
5. Summarize conclusions.

“See motivations” is subjective. All objective information should be obtained first.
Prior knowledge should be the foundation as that can’t change.
This looks like you are trying to formulate what you do versus an actual process.
Anyone can do “see motivations” and get different results.