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Post Post #1768 (isolation #0) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:10 pm

Post by davesaz »

Thanks for the welcome.
In post 1767, Noraa wrote: now prove mini to be innocent
That's what the PM says but not sure why you'd be heavily invested in me proving it. I tend to just play as me and not care what a pred has done unless there's a mob after them already.
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Post Post #1771 (isolation #1) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:16 pm

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In post 496, Saudade wrote:It's actually in my meta that i'm the most unlikable player in every table I'm in
Not really true. Just sometimes.
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Post Post #1773 (isolation #2) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:18 pm

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In post 553, Saudade wrote:I may be wrong but did he just shade every single active slot in one way or another
Worth taking a look at whatever prompted this.
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Post Post #1774 (isolation #3) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:22 pm

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In post 1772, Redados wrote:Davesaz, what is your catch up strategy?
It varies depending on the game and how many people I know. Sometimes I actually read up, other times I do ISO reads of certain people and try to catch the current vibe.
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Post Post #1775 (isolation #4) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:25 pm

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This one's going to be more weird than most because there are only a couple players I've seen before, at least by these names. If there are alts involved it's possible I know more of you, but I tend not to dig for that unless necessary.
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Post Post #1777 (isolation #5) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:28 pm

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In post 1757, duppin wrote:i see. Out of curiosity if it was someone other than Redados who voted, would you still have concluded it was an attempt at pushing a mislynch rightaway or is this assumption based on your read on Redados?
This is a fairly solvey type post. Don't remember what threaded me there tbh, one of the drawbacks of not reading in order. Thought it was worth noting for myself later in any case. (in case you're wondering my catchup posts also serve as reminders to myself of what caught my eye)
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Post Post #1783 (isolation #6) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:36 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1778, Noraa wrote:You read thru 72 pages that fast?
Nah, I'm jumping around. On first glance there's going to be a high noise to signal ratio this game so I probably won't deeply read most of the old stuff. Unless someone wants me to look back that far for a particular reason.
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Post Post #1784 (isolation #7) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:42 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 469, Mundivore wrote:
In post 421, shellyc wrote:
In post 418, Mundivore wrote:I'm clownreading shelly. This super aggressive behavior seems detrimental to her no matter her alignment.

And I think you all know what I think about clowns.
INTERESTING, tasty, very tasty

opportunistic wagoning, -2 townpoints
Stuff doesn't happen if people don't get voted for.
In post 424, shellyc wrote:mudivore reads?

it's not as detrimental as you may think
I don't like readlists either. If someone wants to know what I think of someone, they can ask. Otherwise, posting readlists feels like it gives scum more ammunition than anyone else. Scum like to kill people who townies think are town. Scum like to mislim people who townies think are scum. And the list itself is non-content, something scum can create and share to appear as if they are contributing to the discussion while really only reacting to it in a way that is favorable to them.
The first sentiment here is pretty good. Yes, large numbers of votes are revealing, though I'd argue that knowing why people voted is equally if not more important.

Disagree on the second point. I don't think it's possible for town to get a good result without sharing information, because we inherently start out at an information disadvantage. There are obviously some things that need to be kept close to the vest but a general idea of who you think is scum is essential for consensus building. It also helps to have given reads when town if you're eliminated, because the remaining people can use that if they choose to listen.
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Post Post #1787 (isolation #8) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:47 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 885, Mundivore wrote: shelly plays mafia with the same mentality as a wingsuit diver. She just yeets herself off a cliff-face and hopes not to be dashed against any rocks.
Does this come from a place of authority with regard to Shelly's meta?
You won't have much to read. I still haven't exited RVS mentality... this is a very hectic game, and I tend to keep my reads to myself until I find them useful.
Hmm, this jives with the previous post but yikes, RVS mentality nearly to post 900?
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Post Post #1788 (isolation #9) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:51 pm

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In post 1046, Mundivore wrote:I mean, I just turned Saudade's wagon into a much more viable wagon. By my own reasoning, a Saudade town flip (at
any
point in the game, even if we leave this wagon for a better one) should make me appear more scummy, and a Saudade scum flip should make me appear more town.

I'm aware of the fact that my vote looks more scummy than not. As I said, playing towards the middle is a fine strategy. The point is, I'm making a play that has consequences. Votes, and the ways people react to votes, and the ways people react
with
votes, are the only thing that have consequences and therefore any concrete long-term meaning in this game. If you're serious about your doubt of me, vote for me. Things need to
happen.
Otherwise, town will keep floundering until we run out of time and we're forced to elim the person with the most votes on them just so that we don't give scum an extra kill.
I wasn't as sure earlier in iso read but this seems town mindset in general.
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Post Post #1789 (isolation #10) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:55 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 601, duppin wrote:
In post 598, shellyc wrote:duppin what other reads do you have

i don't really concur with your red read, fwiw he seems pretty disagreeable by thinking that the game is moving in a direction he dislikes
yes but just complaining about the state and not attempting to move it in a direction is suspicious to me. he seems to be complaining about the game state and being very careful with his reads (he essentially ended up only giving town reads) which to me indicate is trying to avoid confrontation while still appearing active. I am perfectly aware it might be too early to tell but that is the impression I am left with
Answers the 2nd question but not the 1st.
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Post Post #1790 (isolation #11) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 1:58 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 610, duppin wrote:
In post 608, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I don't mind anyone voting Jester if they genuinely scumread him. But voting purely with the explained reason that they fundamentally disagree with self-voting is where i draw the line.
you are free to find me suspicious or vote on me for doing so I have no problem with that whatsoever
Hmm, silence would give the same impression which makes me wonder whether this is scum motivated.
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Post Post #1791 (isolation #12) » Tue Sep 29, 2020 2:03 pm

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Ran out of time while reading duppin. I'll have to come back to this later.
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Post Post #1897 (isolation #13) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:28 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1824, shellyc wrote:
In post 1821, Tayl0r Swift wrote:
In post 1819, shellyc wrote:finally ive finished the 12 pages

i think norwayVplus is kinda TvS-ish, with the lack of coherent logic
I think taylor is my top SR
plusjoy is still a scummy slot
scumpings on noraa has increased but might just be LHF
if taylor is red duppin is probgreen
norwee has now become nullish
redados is townleaning with the pushes and mentality i see a townie mindset tbh
mundivore iso isnt exactly great but i want to see more content
jester still town
hot take i kinda SR bugs for not giving us his notes but stating he has notes in notes pt. moving out of rvs is nai and idk why hes getting so much cred for it.
ok now that you're voting for me im gonna need you to explain why you scumread me exactly. and why do you think duppin is town?

please cite specific posts.
I never scumread Norway, I asked you to elaborate on Norway
This doesn't make sense from the quoted post. Was there an editing mistake or something? If not it feels evasive.
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Post Post #1901 (isolation #14) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:31 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1825, shellyc wrote:didn’t mean to quote that but im going to follow up on that

I scumread you because I heavily scumread your pred, and you aren’t making me changing my mind on you
especially the duppin read sounds like an attempt on attacking lurking LHF

I don’t townread duppin, duppin was always a null for me, but if you’re red I don’t see you bussing there
Oh duh, should have looked at the post before it.

Since the topic of duppin comes up here: I wasn't townreading duppin in early iso read but it looked better later. Not a strong TR and I had to stop last night before I was done.
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Post Post #1902 (isolation #15) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:36 am

Post by davesaz »

Bugspray freaking out on page 74 looks pretty suspicious.

Pedit: from the posts that are popping up apparently it got attention, will be interesting to see what's been said. Morning catchup continues.
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Post Post #1903 (isolation #16) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:40 am

Post by davesaz »

Spoiler: big quote
In post 1862, Odd Day Jester wrote:For many years I've been trying to find the secret of making sleep obsolete, but you lot seem to already have that pinned down.

Redados saying Noraa is tunneling because of new player energy, but then making no hypothesis or conclusion on her alignment is sus, like in .

Tayl0r's obsession with getting people to look at and ISO duppin is sus and feels exaggerated. She doesn't bring up any duppin posts and explains exactly which points she finds suspicious, she instead asks people to "look at" duppin over and over, which isn't particularly helpful for convincing people someone is scummy if she really believes that.
- Not a fan of this either. This is too BIG PICTURE in terms of evaluating shelly and Noraa's playstyles. Yes, their playstyles may be NAI, but what about their content and reasons and you know, the stuff you're supposed to look at to determine who's scum in a game of mafia? Slotting 2 of the top posters as null reads because their playstyles are NAI is a particularly lazy read from Tayl0r.

duppin's responses to the push are towny, my only qualm being how he's somewhat apologetic/understanding of Tayl0r's reasons, I'd have liked if he ripped into her a little more. I think this is just his personality though.

- Tayl0r's push and this post read as incredibly bad faithy. Her whole problem with duppin is lack of reasoning for scumreads. Duppin provides the reasoning and points out he's explained them before. Tayl0r responds with "getting a scumread from you is like pulling teeth." rather than acknowledging she was wrong.

- Why in the world are you not voting for Tayl0r by this point, duppin?

- Norwee is 17.293021% scum

Top of page 71 now, but I really scumread Tayl0r at this point. The way she approaches and talks with duppin reeks of bad faith, like she's set on tunneling someone and even when duppin raises a good point or evidence to refute what she's saying, she never fails to find a way to sidestep it. Not conceding ANY points in an argument is a scumtell, and I think this is scum!Tayl0r finding a nice cosy tunnel since that's not a bad strat for scum most of the time to look engaged and occupied, but it looks really forced here.

Tayl0r launch, people?

I like the analysis here. It shows thought and not just reaction.
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Post Post #1904 (isolation #17) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 5:50 am

Post by davesaz »

Jester isn't new.
I
may
have seen bugspray before but not sure. The elimbait characterization could be correct from what I noticed page 74. No time to meta dive. I've seen some people who were elimbait as both town and scum so I don't know if that factors into AI or not.
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Post Post #1933 (isolation #18) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:02 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1922, Odd Day Jester wrote:And I would've got away with it too, if not for those meddling Norwees.

I could tell you knew straight away though, so I appreciate you not outing me immediately this time lol
I didn't know who you were, but it was very obvious that you were too familiar with enough people to be really new. :lol:
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Post Post #1934 (isolation #19) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 8:04 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 1928, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Hectic too seems like their usual town self.
They don’t scumread me though which is slightly odd, since when does town!Hectic not scumread me.
Even if you know who someone is, for iso reading purposes it's better to refer to people by their name in this game. Please and thanks.
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Post Post #1976 (isolation #20) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:07 am

Post by davesaz »

Ugh, don't encourage him!
Pedit: that's at Norwegian. Though I could have left it without the pedit for the lols.
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Post Post #2002 (isolation #21) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:18 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 1999, shellyc wrote:
In post 1904, davesaz wrote:Jester isn't new.
man jester is hectic
Yeah I know, that development showed up after I had noticed that Jester was referring to meta that a new person wouldn't have.
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Post Post #2005 (isolation #22) » Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:23 pm

Post by davesaz »

Here is a partial look on where I am. Still lots to look at.

duppin looked scummy from posts like which looks somewhat evasive, and which looks like an overt attempt to be chill about being scumread. Later posting like , , look like they are trying to find out other players alignments via discussion which is pretty towny. On balance I'm thinking town though my early reads are never strong.

Tayl0r was involved in a lot of the questioning from duppin, and the way she handled those posts seems to ignore the topic that duppin is trying to explore/explain/question and continue as though her version is truth. By not quoting the things she's asserting about duppin and failing to acknowledge the rebuttal points it makes it look like she wants to fit evidence to the read instead of the read to the evidence. I need to read her more but these interactions look scummy.

Jester / Hectic had a really good post that I spoilered in an earlier post -- looks town to me with the usual caveat that it's weak.

I need to re-read Norwegian's interactions with Tayl0r. I think there were points where I thought each of them looked like scum during the first reading, and that makes me doubt that it's coherent. Also looking at just those interactions is too narrow a focus, need to look at Norwegian's overall approach. Rather than try to make a call from possibly bad memory gonna have to make it a to-do.

Mundivore admitting they're working on a case but becoming less convinced is a good sign but not enough to get a real read from by itself.

I've seen Noraa post but can't remember the substance of her positions. Her iso is too long to approach it that way. Some of the tone as I've spot checked is cheerful and friendly enough but I'm unsure what that should mean.
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Post Post #2035 (isolation #23) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:25 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2014, bugspray wrote:VOTE: duppin
Got a "because clause" to go with this?
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Post Post #2036 (isolation #24) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:30 am

Post by davesaz »

The point of a big wagon is not to get a claim. The point is to find out how people react to the wagon. Multiple big wagons in a day is more revealing than a single wagon.
The reason for getting claims when close is to evaluate the claim, shift gears if necessary, and go ahead to eliminate if it's unimportant or doesn't make sense.
The reason for getting to a claim with a day or two left on the deadline is to allow time for a shift if one is needed.
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Post Post #2128 (isolation #25) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:17 am

Post by davesaz »

Note at end of page 82, I've been in 4 hours straight of meetings today and it's not over yet.
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Post Post #2177 (isolation #26) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:44 am

Post by davesaz »

UNVOTE:
Didn't realize my vote was still there.

bugspray can you explain how Noraa's reaction is more scum than town?

Tayl0r's claim would be NAI in a vacuum because it's just as likely a scum role intended to mess stuff up. The informed claim of there being a mafia doc (is that Norwegian? posting in quick reply so can't check easily) isn't clearing precisely, but it does lower the chances it's a scum role. A devious game designer might have both scum roles (doc and rolestop) as a way to punish town for thinking it's a hard clear but that would imply lots of town power.

The Tayl0r / Norwegian interaction doesn't look SvS unless it's award worthy theater. Could be SvT, with Occam pointing to Norwegian as scum. If that were true and I'm remembering who claimed informed, it makes a dandy WK gambit. TvT and talking past each other is a strong possibility.

Possible but unlikely would be a mafia doc fakeclaiming rolestopper to change things up. I don't see that as a play that scum!Tayl0r would make without first knowing there is an informed, and I don't think that would be Normal. Pre-empting any accusations of fence sitting on this post, I think it's important to explain the rejected paths.

Of those two, Tayl0r is more likely town than Norwegian, and both town is the most likely of the combinations.
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Post Post #2178 (isolation #27) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 7:46 am

Post by davesaz »

Are my eyes deceiving me, or is that bat sucking a paci? Cute pic regardless.
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Post Post #2209 (isolation #28) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:23 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2191, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Rolestopper is a protective role.
I was informed mafia has a protective role.
Hold the phone, I thought you said doc earlier.
If you're informed mafia has a protective role, and that's all you're informed about, then why derail the wagon? Shouldn't you still be gung ho on it?
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Post Post #2210 (isolation #29) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:24 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2117, NorwegianboyEE wrote:Oh that’s really interesting Taylor. Because i’m an informed role and i’ve been specifically told this setup has an mafia doctor.
No I'm not misremembering this.
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Post Post #2211 (isolation #30) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:28 am

Post by davesaz »

I'm not going to jump to conclusions here, but someone's got some 'splaining to do!
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Post Post #2246 (isolation #31) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 1:02 pm

Post by davesaz »

Hold on a bit while I put some beetles in my juicer.
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Post Post #2277 (isolation #32) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:38 pm

Post by davesaz »

So that was an entertaining thing to come back to.
Pretty sure the context was about making stuff up, so I'm leaning toward joke.
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Post Post #2278 (isolation #33) » Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:42 pm

Post by davesaz »

I would like to say though, if you see something like that it's far better to just file it away for future reference. Having a giant conversation about it has a bunch of potential negatives. If it was a soft in the form of a joke you just drew a shitload of attention to it. If it's just a joke then it still flirts with inadvertently causing premature counter claims or unhealthy setup spec. There is a time for that but usually not this early in a closed game.
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Post Post #2458 (isolation #34) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:44 pm

Post by davesaz »

+1
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Post Post #2459 (isolation #35) » Fri Oct 02, 2020 6:50 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 2389, Battle Mage wrote:Hectic man, did you read the duppin ISO? it's one of the scummiest ISO's I've ever seen, and I refuse to believe you can read it in good faith and not think he's scum.
When you get a chance it would help me to read both you and duppin if you'd quote a few posts and say what you're seeing in them that's scummy.
Going from memory I saw a couple things in duppin's iso that looked cautious or evasive but it seemed to get better later. I posted about it.
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Post Post #2809 (isolation #36) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 8:59 am

Post by davesaz »

Thread blew up overnight, I'm on the bottom of page 99 going to 113.
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Post Post #2811 (isolation #37) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:11 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2525, Battle Mage wrote:I am hereby claiming a confirmable town power role. I.e. I can mechanically confirm myself as town.
Why is this a +town thing to do?
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Post Post #2812 (isolation #38) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:19 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2613, Hectic wrote:Hey, BM, you normally actually do the meta on these kind of cases. You looked at the rate of my usage of "worries" and "concerns" in that newbie game. Why are you choosing to ignore evidence which suggests your case is completely invalid, or look into it yourself?
+town post
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Post Post #2813 (isolation #39) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:21 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2614, Hectic wrote:
In post 2593, shellyc wrote:lets do a popcorn giving readslists

@duppin your turn, take as long as you’d like, im off with some RL stuff for half an hour
Let's not. Especislly not right before a night phase where scum can use the information to make better nightkills.
Yeah I've never seen someone suggest popcorning read lists before. I don't think lists are as useful to scum as you suggest.
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Post Post #2814 (isolation #40) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:23 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2629, Hectic wrote:If people want to start voting/compromising, I'd recommend Redados. I think UNOwen's reasons are legit and his lack of reasons and then backpedal on both of his scumreads on shelly and Noraa is shady.
In post 2630, NorwegianboyEE wrote:VOTE: Redados
Being quick to accept suggestions and eager to please has been noted.
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Post Post #2815 (isolation #41) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:26 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2638, duppin wrote:not really relevant but this is the third 90% scumread on me this game, not sure whats about with the 90%
Percentages are a little weird to me in general. I noticed Shelly's list that was percentage based, though I suspect it was more along the lines of making a list and then assigning arbitrary numbers to the levels.
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Post Post #2816 (isolation #42) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:29 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2652, Noraa wrote:BM claimed vt then a pr
wtf
Wonder if anyone else noticed this...
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Post Post #2824 (isolation #43) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:47 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2818, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2816, davesaz wrote:
In post 2652, Noraa wrote:BM claimed vt then a pr
wtf
Wonder if anyone else noticed this...
i'm certain everyone did, including me! What's your point though?
I think you misunderstood my post.

I wonder how many people other than Noraa and myself noticed that you claimed VT and then a mysterious confirmable PR. Not how many people noticed Noraa's post.

I'll take this chance to say that the rest of my catchup has been like reading chaos, and the only real result has been a slight headache from trying to follow it all.
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Post Post #2827 (isolation #44) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:48 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2819, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2811, davesaz wrote:
In post 2525, Battle Mage wrote:I am hereby claiming a confirmable town power role. I.e. I can mechanically confirm myself as town.
Why is this a +town thing to do?
heh, cause I was just gonna get day-elimmed otherwise... :facepalm:
With one or two votes on you at that point and a couple days to go?
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Post Post #2828 (isolation #45) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:50 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 2826, Battle Mage wrote:oh what a pagetop! lol
I could have been like a zoomer and posted again right away, but decided not to. You're welcome for the setup. :lol:
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Post Post #2834 (isolation #46) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 9:54 am

Post by davesaz »

Actually I don't know if that's the correct usage of zoomer. Us boomers have a hard time with the lingo sometimes.

Pedit: no I'm insinuating that a bunch of people didn't notice it, which casts them in a slightly darker light. Not quite shade mind you because I'd hate to be accused of something heinous as that.

Pedit2: Eh, if you're town then shark repellent could be a good idea I guess.
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Post Post #2931 (isolation #47) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 2:27 pm

Post by davesaz »

Hammer intent

I agree with the wagon and agree that it's best to wait.
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Post Post #2976 (isolation #48) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 5:31 pm

Post by davesaz »

I thought I had put motion sickness behind me. Apparently not.
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Post Post #3003 (isolation #49) » Mon Oct 05, 2020 8:05 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 2661, Battle Mage wrote:
In post 2653, Noraa wrote:Imma be off at a lake most of the morning so dont expect my vote to change
If I die tonight, this one is lockscum btw
This post stood out when BM posted it. I thought it was nuts at the time. Guess we know what it meant.

VOTE: Noraa
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Post Post #3177 (isolation #50) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:26 am

Post by davesaz »

Let me fix this
In post 3115, shellyc wrote:
the reason why you
say you
didnt get a PM is because you are scum
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Post Post #3184 (isolation #51) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:31 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3136, duppin wrote:okay so unless something weird happens today we already know who we are limming but it'd still like to point out vigi would not be the only explanation for this, another possibility could be a busdriver or something similar.
Pretty sure there are no busdrivers in normals. I don't follow normal rules closely enough to be certain though.

Don't remember if millers are still in the Normal rules. Something to give a weak a false scumread. We'd need to ground her anyway if she were miller.
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Post Post #3189 (isolation #52) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:33 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3151, PlusJOYED wrote:
In post 3148, duppin wrote:in that case i cant see an explanation unless we have a vigi or sk around
sks have to have their own kill flavor separate from maf
@noraa if you aren't maf you need to claim rn
No, all kills are supposed to be indistinguishable in normals.
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Post Post #3195 (isolation #53) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:38 am

Post by davesaz »

Refuting wrong mechanics while catching up is futile when others find the mistakes first. :lol:
West coast timezone strikes again.
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Post Post #3221 (isolation #54) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:29 am

Post by davesaz »

Eh, maybe a simple version with the understanding that there is a wall behind it if needed?
We can always use the time to dig for your partners if this is just a ploy, and if you are somehow town then slowing down the train would be easier the earlier it's done.

Pedit: and slow typing is another thing I fight lol
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Post Post #3258 (isolation #55) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:14 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3256, UNOwen wrote:
In post 2867, UNOwen wrote: Dave who do you think is scum?
My current scumreads are Noraa and Mundivore.
Slight scumlean on you.
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Post Post #3261 (isolation #56) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:29 pm

Post by davesaz »

Hectic, I'm slightly confused by the last part of .
op wrote: 4. PlusJOYED replaces JacksonVirgo
6. davesaz replaces MiniMegabyte
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Post Post #3267 (isolation #57) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:26 pm

Post by davesaz »

<crickets>
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Post Post #3411 (isolation #58) » Wed Oct 07, 2020 6:32 am

Post by davesaz »

We waited for that?!?
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Post Post #3448 (isolation #59) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Post by davesaz »

Here's some bat info
I found the same Norwee post but thought it would be better to hold it until/unless bugs got run up.
Not a huge fan of all the loose lips, y'all need to think more about the situation and not paint targets on people.
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Post Post #3451 (isolation #60) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 4:08 pm

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: Mundivore
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Post Post #3465 (isolation #61) » Sun Oct 11, 2020 6:59 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 3258, davesaz wrote:
In post 3256, UNOwen wrote:
In post 2867, UNOwen wrote: Dave who do you think is scum?
My current scumreads are Noraa and Mundivore.
Slight scumlean on you.
I had a scumread on Mundivore. Never got much opportunity to elaborate.
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Post Post #3538 (isolation #62) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:17 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3523, duppin wrote:dave then catches up, but does not acknowledge the plus wagon either in 2177
In what world is it surprising that I spent all my energy figuring out the two claims that had happened? This observation seems to be coming from a direction of expecting a pairing and trying to find it vs. not knowing.

Pedit: it's a work day.
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Post Post #3541 (isolation #63) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:23 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3489, duppin wrote:
In post 3488, shellyc wrote:Massclaim: yay or nay?

why does mafia doc = not a good idea to massclaim btw?
Because it could indicate there is a vigi around
If the purpose of the doc was purely to partially nerf the gunsmith then there may not be a vig at all. Seeing no unexplained deaths lends credibility to a no vig scenario, though I suppose something outlandish like a night specific with a high night number is possible. Normal design has tended toward those kinds of unusual setups.
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Post Post #3542 (isolation #64) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:26 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3473, UNOwen wrote:This is the only "read" dave offered on Noraa day 1, and it strikes me as quite likely to be partner speak. Calling attention to a player to announce that you've noticed them but have no hint of an opinion alignment either way is strange, especially when there were other prominent players (shelly) that were ignored.
Congrats on figuring out that I give up easily trying to read people with 500+ posts. :lol:
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Post Post #3543 (isolation #65) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 9:29 am

Post by davesaz »

In post 3508, Hectic wrote:Is this all you have to comment on Dave? What are your scumreads now?
NGL, it's hard reset time. I'm going to run out of lunch break time soon and it's gonna take a shitton of reading to do that reset.
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Post Post #3580 (isolation #66) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:50 pm

Post by davesaz »

Oh good, I'm only 2 pages behind. At the bottom of 142.
Sorry, it's been a couple rough days.
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Post Post #3581 (isolation #67) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 4:13 pm

Post by davesaz »

So Shelly's claim happened. I have no meta to evaluate it with. I'm a little worried that I'll spend a bunch of time deep diving to do that reset and it will all be for naught.
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Post Post #3818 (isolation #68) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:40 pm

Post by davesaz »

Catching up yet again at bottom of page 144.
Night 3 is indeed possible -- specific night is the most in-vogue kind of limited role. Even/odd is another way of limiting a role. Balance wise it's like a 1/2 role or less.
8 pages to read to find out if this has already been discussed to death.
"Track miller" is kinda funny sounding. Is shelly still fairly new? I hate to go on join date alone and there has been talk about her having a few completed games...
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Post Post #3819 (isolation #69) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 3:48 pm

Post by davesaz »

In post 3666, duppin wrote:@davesaz i understand youre trying to do a hard reset, but i would like to hear your thoughts regarding shellys claim
Sorry I've been completely absent, not holding off.
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Post Post #3820 (isolation #70) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:02 pm

Post by davesaz »

Massclaim starting with me, eh?
VT, my least favorite role.
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Post Post #3825 (isolation #71) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:41 pm

Post by davesaz »

<--- thinking, not fence sitting. That guy's definitely not sitting on a fence.
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Post Post #3826 (isolation #72) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 6:42 pm

Post by davesaz »

Wasn't even paying attention to the post number. If I'd been trying to do that it would never have come out. :lol:
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Post Post #3828 (isolation #73) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 7:02 pm

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I have a mechanical analysis of Shelly's claim, but it makes more sense to talk about it after massclaim. I don't want to take any risk at all that scum can use it to get an advantage.
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Post Post #3879 (isolation #74) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:52 am

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In post 3868, UNOwen wrote:- dodgy dave stubbornly sitting on his hands the entire day
Not being here <> sitting on hands. And one thing you can be 100% sure of, if I say I haven't been here, I haven't been here.
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Post Post #3882 (isolation #75) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 7:47 am

Post by davesaz »

So the Hectic claim changes the picture somewhat but I'll discuss Shelly without that.

Looking at it from the true claim point of view... Prompting your track target to at least crumb/soft if a PR is a +town move when there hasn't been a massclaim. Tracker is a really tricky role to play, especially as 1-shot and even more so as night-specific. I think the targeting on a weak TR is a little weird, unless the TR was semi-fake to instill a false sense of security in the target's ability to get away with making the kill. With 2 scum left and a night-specific shot, she'd be in a use it or lose it position, and tracking a largely scumread target would risk coming up blank because scumread!scum shouldn't make kills. I feel tracker is one of the weakest investigatives. I got really annoyed in the Gay Mafia team game when I saved my tracker shot for later and tracked my target to a kill, but almost got ignored because a couple people kept trying to elim me. I chose a previous TR to track in that game because Occam said the only solve was that one of my TRs had to be scum. Bottom line it's quite possible as a true claim from the mechanics and targeting point of view. There is more to say about Shelly, and balance. I'll make those points later.

From a fake claim point of view, this is an obviously horrible claim.
The
fake claim to make in this position to get a fake guilty is a
watch on the semi-conf player
. I find it hard to believe that a scumteam with daytalk would not hash out a fake claim and make the strategically best claim possible. Fake claiming a track guilty suffers right from the start because it's the investigation type that is statistically least likely to hit prior to getting down to one scum left. In this situation any fake claim that's going to result in lengthy discussion is a massively bad idea.

For balance purposes, if it's a true claim then mafia might have a ninja. The balance that has been revealed so far shows complementary roles, with a mafia doc to complement gunsmith, and weak FN to give a guilty where the gunsmith fails. The rolestopper would reduce the probability of other roles being successful without interfering with NK.

Shelly's handling of Duppin's response was weird, which I already pointed out. You'd think that as either alignment she'd look at what might defeat the role and be prepared for it. As scum she might be prepared for an admission that Duppin did indeed visit Bugs, and have rebuttal prepared for that. Scum!Shelly preparation for Duppin saying he didn't visit should be to just press the case. The "tracker miller" idea shouldn't ever enter her head as scum planning ahead. It shouldn't enter her head as town either, a town tracker is expecting a positive result to be either a TPR visiting or scum. So while it's very weird, I don't think that episode really means anything other than she's a very impulsive player who blurts out thoughts with little or no filtering.

Long story short, I think Shelly's claim is much more likely to be true than it is to be fake, in the absence of Hectic's commuter claim.
Now to cogitate again with that included.
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Post Post #3883 (isolation #76) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:01 am

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I want to make it totally clear that this is a mechanics analysis. I generally suck at reading people based on posting, and tend to be quiet if there isn't anything to run against logic. Feel free to look up just about any game and you'll see me making countless bad reads when they're tone and posting reads. Aside from the small number of people I can meta. ;)
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Post Post #4075 (isolation #77) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:08 am

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In post 4070, PlusJOYED wrote:Hectic revealing the bugspray softconf seems pretty town indicative.
Jeez, I wake up and there are already something like 5 pages. Most of it matched the continuing 1v1+1 I expected to see, but gotta respond to this as it relates to a point I was going to make at the end of reading up.

Hectic revealing the softconf,
having a commuter role
is
not town
.
Town with that role should not allow the softconf to die. He should turn it into a hardconf by softing his own clear or something, assuming he has a shot left. If town, a commuter's job is to eat a fruitless NK attempt. Hectic tried to say he crumbed but those aren't the kind of heavy crumb / soft a town commuter tries to use. No, the softconf
while bugspray was in no danger
is not a town move. I think it was a way to create an excuse for Hectic himself not being killed. Scum!Hectic had done too good a job to that point and was in danger of being found out by surviving. Then yesterday he fakeclaimed the commuter to save Duppin from the guilty. He had me totally fooled right up to yesterday.

It's annoying that I couldn't break free from stuff long enough to figure this out before end of day. But I think we have a guilty and a partner identified. Too bad it's a day later than it could have been.
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Post Post #4076 (isolation #78) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 5:13 am

Post by davesaz »

VOTE: Duppin
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Post Post #4079 (isolation #79) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:06 am

Post by davesaz »

I'm usually the hammer vote when I get endgamed by scum.
Plus, you still have a chance to save this.
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Post Post #4081 (isolation #80) » Wed Oct 21, 2020 6:19 am

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Is it you and duppin then?
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Post Post #4154 (isolation #81) » Sat Oct 24, 2020 7:42 am

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I actually was absent when I said I was.
Replaced in because I like MT and bats and was low on games and RL was calm. Then RL wasn't. :(
I was hoping to not need to post today, and got that wish.
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Post Post #4171 (isolation #82) » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:04 am

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When you can't have an opinion on your scumbuddies because you're incapable of finding the time to read 500+ posts to get one... :shifty:
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