Mini Theme 2172: Great Idea Mafia - Game Over

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: Rannygazoo

naked vote on NPOM in the midst of discussion surrounding his claim is scummy. explain yourself.

Hi! I’m sure we’ll be friends.

I find this role list vastly unpredictable so I don’t know what else to do but vote and see what comes up. Happy to have contributed. I would consider it less of a vote “in the midst of discussion” and more of a vote in the “random vote stage”.

I’m inclined to believe the gravedigger claim because it’s easy to prove or disprove at night (with a watcher that sees them and the real killer, or a gunsmith, etc.) and it’s a negative utility role so there’s no point in concealing it from scum.

[Rannygazoo]

Mafia kills player A. Serial Killer kills player B. I show up on guilty to watchers and trackers on both.

ohhh okay i misunderstood the role that makes sense then
but wouldn’t you need two trackers to watch both of them?

Wait what? Just put one tracker on the gravedigger. If the tracker sees them visit two targets in one night, then the gravedigger is confirmed. I haven’t memorized all 146 roles but I don’t know of any that can visit two targets of their own will.

[Rannygazoo]

@iamusername unrelated. I’m not proud to admit it, but I didn’t read the whole thread carefully when I posted. I did see that there was a gravedigger claim, but I didn’t realize at the time that it was from NPOM.

NoPowerOverMe? Just the name is a challenge to vote them.

[Rannygazoo]

I’m still kind of astonished by this setup because I thought most games on mafiascum had a VT majority, not just a town majority.

It may work out that most of the roles are functionally VT (like, maybe we have a conspiracy theorist with no aliens), but I really don’t know what to expect.

[Rannygazoo]

Yes one tracker should get two kill results now that I think about it.

Wait no. The watcher has to watch the person being killed. Tracker could get two results though if I am thinking about it correctly.

The roled are random so a vanilla majority is not guaranteed.

Yes, yes, and yes.

IMO posting about mechanics like this is a scumtell because it’s just fluff. It gives the illusion of contributing without bringing us any closer to finding scum. Don’t do this after I said I believed your claim

[Rannygazoo]

UNVOTE:
To people who have played setup before, would you care to link to a typical game so the rest of us know what to expect?

[Rannygazoo]

Your avatars are so similar that it’s hard to tell you apart on mobile. Glad you got that sorted out though.

So how does scum claiming miller on d1 factor into the site meta?

[Rannygazoo]

The odds of both of them rolling are very low.

That’s not saying I don’t believe NPOM. It just seems like that meta doesn’t really work in open games like this.

[Rannygazoo]

echo whos scum

listen im gunna drop a solve next page, this game is very close to solved tbh

titus is town as well. engagement with noraa seemed like solving when scum!titus could just wagon on renny

ico and arachnids are a team; they're posting in their private topic right now instead of in the actual thread
they wanna make that fashionably late entrance but they can't decide who shows up first
whoever shows up first has to bring the alcohol

VOTE: ico

Don’t like this. I also check AG’s latest activity and it was today, BUT her name isn’t bolded in the mod’s first post, meaning she hasn’t confirmed her role via pm. Personally I doubt she’s still playing.

What do you think voting on inactives will accomplish?

Your next line will be: “My vote was just a joke.”

[Rannygazoo]

Fine, I’ll wait and see

VOTE: Herta
I want this situation sorted out.

[Rannygazoo]

What do you think voting on inactives will accomplish?

policy lynch sometimes but it's not a high info elim, eliminations d1 generally should be info elims

ranny is this your first non newbie game

Are you asking if I’m an alt? I’ll tell you the same thing I put during account creation. I had an account here years ago and I played a couple of games but I don’t remember my username and I don’t really want to, as I don’t remember anything about my games except that the last one was pretty toxic.

Some of the names I see around the site are tickling my memory but I don’t remember whether or not I played with them, and I definitely don’t know anything about their meta.

[Rannygazoo]

I voted Herta because I wanted an explanation of the apparent scum claim, and we got none. Oh well.

It’s almost page 10 and I’m kind of surprised that no one has been dayvigged or something crazy by now.

[Rannygazoo]

Herta, maybe try explaining the scum claim that led to your wagon instead of just complaining about it

[Rannygazoo]

Herta, maybe try explaining the scum claim that led to your wagon instead of just complaining about it

Have you ever seen a sincere scum claim this early outside of RVs on this site? Has anyone?

A serious, gamethrowing scum claim? The mod would have to intervene.

A “I’m going to joke about being scum because the psychological pressure of making a deception is getting to me?” Sure.

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: EchoVision
That’s the second time you voted a slot for being inactive. Is 13 pages not enough for you to find anything scummy?

[Rannygazoo]

Nooooo not the townpoint

Herta was pressed earlier and blew it off. I wanted to add to the pressure by helping build the wagon. I wasn’t satisfied with the answer and would be okay with the elim /willing to hammer.

I voted echo because he did the thing twice. I only have one vote smdh

[Rannygazoo]

So uh

It kind of feels like the day is winding down. I was hoping Herta would convince us to move the wagon but it looks like he won’t.

I don’t know what to do except wait for the prods/replacements to catch up. I’m still willing to hammer herta if it comes to it but I’d like to hear from ico and assemble before that happens.

[Rannygazoo]

I don’t have an opinion on shelly v. Noraa, but yikes. Look at shelly’s record and she might make a good policy elim.

I feel like I’ll know more after a flip, and night actions start flying. That will allow us at least to count the scum factions, maybe

[Rannygazoo]

I can’t speak for scum!ranny, but voting on inactives shows an unwillingness to do any actual scum hunting, while trying to keep up appearances. Doing it twice in a row is weird.

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: Rannygazoo

I policy elim anyone who suggests policy elims. It's just bad play.

Go ahead and vote yourself now

[Rannygazoo]

I wasn’t being serious about a policy elim on shelly. I was just remarking that she seems lucky in rolling scum frequently, and then going on to win.

Not a real reason for a day 1 elim, but definitely something to be cautious about if you end up townreading her.

[Rannygazoo]

There's plenty to do and read, this is an attempt to stuff the town and act as if nothing's happening today, extremely scum motivated. obviously sees shelly as lynch bait but doesn't want to bite the line normally, also I hate policy elims. Herta's posts above satisfy me with that slot for now.

All I saw on that page was back and forth between Shelly and noraa that was hard to follow. If good stuff is happening today, will you please summarize it for me?

[Rannygazoo]

I know that mafia games are No Irony Zones but I’m going to say what I want without fear. Thanks for bearing with me.

@Herta do you have any scumreads that aren’t OMGUS?

[Rannygazoo]

why mention her being a good policy elim then if you're not serious?

Just remarking and generating content. Isn’t that what day 1 is for?

[Rannygazoo]

and on that same note, I don't like titus just jumping right on there with no explanation

I’m not fond of naked votes myself and I do wish Titus would say something, but I don’t see this as being alignment indicative.

(I someone is going to be tempted to call me out for my own naked vote. That was on page 2 when my vote was still random.)

@redcardinal: that’s the thing. I don’t suspect Shelly. I’m neutral on shelly v. Nortaa

[Rannygazoo]

Like, I find it hard to read their 1v1. I asked you to summarize it for me but I guess you feel the same way?

[Rannygazoo]

To alert town to the fact that shelly is a good scum player and it might be wise to have a bit of caution about her.

I don’t claim to know what alignment she rolled this time.

[Rannygazoo]

That doesn’t mean anything. You can get elimmed in a way that sets up your team to win.

@NPOM do you post fluff in every game?

[Rannygazoo]

She got elimed as scum in the game I played with her

Mafia isn't about being nice it's about finding scum.

The roled are random so a vanilla majority is not guaranteed.

Wait no. The watcher has to watch the person being killed. Tracker could get two results though if I am thinking about it correctly.

Echo has a history of getting lynched day 1. I wouldn't recommend it.

Just seeing a lot of low-calorie posting from you that doesn’t mean anything.

[Rannygazoo]

their = inactives

So diplomatic

[Rannygazoo]

Of course not. I still believe the gravedigger claim. But I’m exploring nonetheless.

[Rannygazoo]

What the literal heck are you doing? Are you jesting? Is jester in this role list?

VOTE: Titus

[Rannygazoo]

how much u roll scum is not in ur control therefore its a terrible thing to base any argument off of.

I was talking about how often she wins as scum, not how often the rolls scum. Please don’t misrepresent me like this.

[Rannygazoo]

I dont see the point in bringing a lot of attention a conftown slot(at least rn they are conftown)?

Garbage opinion. No one is conftown.

[Rannygazoo]

I dont see the point in bringing a lot of attention a conftown slot(at least rn they are conftown)?

Garbage opinion. No one is conftown.

idk my rolepm says town so I guess I'm in the clear

seriously though I think you're missing the point on purpose. npom is not a good slot to be throwing shade on, pick someone else

This is a strange post. I explore suspicious activity where I see it. I don’t decide who I’m going to accuse first and then come up with reasons later.-

[Rannygazoo]

I know that mafia games are No Irony Zones but I’m going to say what I want without fear. Thanks for bearing with me.

@Herta do you have any scumreads that aren’t OMGUS?

It's not omgus. It has nothing to do with your push on me. But I think you know that.

You’re not the first person to hit me with the “I think you know that”. What is this tactic called? The smug psychic? You don’t know me. I was asking if you had scumreads outside of me and shelly.

To alert town to the fact that shelly is a good scum player and it might be wise to have a bit of caution about her.

I don’t claim to know what alignment she rolled this time.

Why not just say that then? There's no need to hide that from us or make it cryptic.

It was never cryptic. People are just blowing it out of proportion and I don’t *really* understand why.

[Rannygazoo]

I’m waiting for someone else to comment on Titus’s posting, because his lowkey trolling is clearly anti-town, but town is not going to hear it from me, it seems.

[Rannygazoo]

Please explain

[Rannygazoo]

I'll hammer to get the game going, I just think scum are coasting here.

Seriously, explain WHY this is okay when I said something similar in 398 and it blew up in my face

[Rannygazoo]

It probably has something to do with redcardinal’s policy of deciding which slots to scumread and then picking reasons later as he explained to me in 463

[Rannygazoo]

@Primate your Jedi mind tricks won’t work on me. I didn’t say Titus’s post there was scummy. I said it was very similar to mine and I want to know why it provokes very different reactions. If someone (not me) thinks I was being scummy, they should think the same of Titus, but he’s flown under the radar. “It’s about execution” is such a non-answer. I think it has more to do with alignments revealed in role pms.

[Rannygazoo]

Just generally to answer both your questions, it's about execution, and I think it's interesting that you're looking at it that way.

Am I to read this as “it’s actually a good thing that ranny is the object of titus’s trolling, because of my SR on ranny”?

@Titus sorry, I assumed Titus was a boy’s name. Since we have you here, what was terrible about my reaction?

[Rannygazoo]

@Primate I am not scumreading Titus for that post. I am scumreading Titus strictly for other reasons. However, other people are scumreading me for a post similar to one that she made. I’m trying to suss out why player’s reactions to the two of us are so different. I hope that clears it up.

Some people might say “she posts similarly to me so she must be town” but I deliberately try to avoid that. I don’t want to become pocketed just because I agree with someone’s posts.

[Rannygazoo]

Here it is again. How are these two posts functionally different:

fuck we still have a week before deadline
zzzzzzzz
who we killin today boys and girls

So uh

It kind of feels like the day is winding down. I was hoping Herta would convince us to move the wagon but it looks like he won’t.

I don’t know what to do except wait for the prods/replacements to catch up. I’m still willing to hammer herta if it comes to it but I’d like to hear from ico and assemble before that happens.

I feel like I want RC to answer this

[Rannygazoo]

Two can play this game: I state that I’d be willing to hammer a wagon that I’m not in to end the day. You say that you’re willing to sheep whichever way town goes today (but only because you want town points!)

[Rannygazoo]

A wagon in my scum reads*

[Rannygazoo]

RadiantCowbells wrote this topic on how to be toxic to win at mafia viewtopic.php?f=5&t=84099 and I’ve been thinking about it lately

(I’m not accusing anyone here of being toxic)

[Rannygazoo]

sigh FOR THE NEWBIES

site meta = miller/ascetic/ negative utility town roles claim d1

Does anyone else want to claim a negative utility role before the opportunity is gone forever?

[Rannygazoo]

It probably has something to do with redcardinal’s policy of deciding which slots to scumread and then picking reasons later as he explained to me in 463

she

what you're going for here is ridiculous and if you were town you'd see that. when I said pick a different target, I thought it was fairly obvious that it was a joke about me scumreading you, since that's what scum do

Sorry, I’m on mobile and don’t notice genders since they’re small.

But no, in fact, the scummy thing you claim is a joke was not obviously a joke. You were trying to stop me from exploring motives behind a slot even though it was widely townread. That’s not something town does. You’re either protecting a buddy or, more likely, defending a townread slot while dunking on another slot for easy town cred.

You’re in my scum reads so I don’t feel the need to convince you of anything. Tunnel all you want. You’re not going to help town anyway.

[Rannygazoo]

echovision's post stokes town talking and yours doesn't ranny,

To me, the post stokes an unwillingness to try and a willingness to sheep. While mine was just... honestly what I thought. I guess we’ll have to agree to disagree. Or you’ll have to get used to my town meta of not calculating whether what I think looks good before I say it.

[Rannygazoo]

I think there’s a tendency to believe among newer mafia players and maybe the population in general that the truth will prevail and everything will be okay if I have right on my side, but boy is that not true, as I keep learning the hard way.

[Rannygazoo]

The main reason is 463. She can say it’s a joke all she wants, but I was doing some completely harmless digging, not even accusing NPOM of being scum, just exploring their behavior, and for her shut it down like that is scum-motivated. I can iso dive and build a more thorough case.

[Rannygazoo]

@username do you see town motivation in Titus’s posts?

[Rannygazoo]

???

[Rannygazoo]

Literally wtf. I was telling you what I thought, and I said I can go through the iso and try to improve my case.

You asked me when I

started

to scumread her and why. I could have done the iso dive first (which is normally what people do when making a case against someone), but then it wouldn’t have been an honest answer to your question as you stated it.

[Rannygazoo]

“I don’t decide who I’m going to accuse first and then come up with reasons later.“

Is NOT the same thing as

“I’m incapable of improving my reads by doing a deeper analysis.”

I’m so misunderstood. Woe is me.

[Rannygazoo]

So when did you first start scumreading me?

When you started jesting. I mean, you say not to clutter up the topic with chatter and then you go on to make trolling posts like that. Why did you do that? Further up in your iso, everything looks towny.

[Rannygazoo]

I didn’t even vote you because I thought you were scum. It was a pressure vote to get you to straighten up. If I have to say that, it didn’t work, so: UNVOTE:

But you kept at it, and that’s what I don’t get.

[Rannygazoo]

You might be prejudiced tho

[Rannygazoo]

I am genuinely frustrated but I’m also out here trying not to take it personally when I get misrepresented, so read as much sarcasm as you need to into my “woe is me”s so it doesn’t sound too dumb.

It’s just a game! We’re having fun! I’m not mad at any of you! It’s probably best if I go cool down for a few hours, though.

[Rannygazoo]

I found that once I stopped posting, it was easy to keep not posting. I was actually waiting for username to come back and answer for this horrible vote in 782 before I posted, or at least, I was waiting for someone to call them out on it. What does it mean that only MURDERCAT noticed, during their catch up?

It seems like username is a far more adept prod dodger than I. Getting in 12 minutes before the mod. Very wow. I’d need years more experience before I’m able to pull something like that off.

[Rannygazoo]

This game is hard to solve. I don’t have any strong townreads. Usually there’s a player to two where I can say “these people are probably town, but even if they aren’t, they contribute valuable discussion so it would be good to keep them around for a day or two.” I’m just not feeling that in this game.

@MURDERCAT: I’d like to know how you calculated those odds. Approximately half the roles in the list are scum, so if you just use a rng to pick numbers on the list one after another, it seems like approximately half would be scum. I don’t know how you’d guarantee a town majority like this. Either stop accepting scum when you get 6 of them (which would weigh the game towards more scum), or throw out the whole list you’ve made and start again once you reach 7 scum, which is inefficient.

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: redcardinal
They seem more interested in “let’s get an elim, as long as it’s not me” rather than actually choosing right.

[Rannygazoo]

If I am scum it is because I am a scum gravedigger(I haven't checked to make sure there is a scum gravedigger role but someone said there is, I think somewhere.)

Yes, this is the thing I am worried about

See here: viewtopic.php?f=24&t=84180

What are we supposed to see here? It’s a different role list.

[Rannygazoo]

Is there any way to prove NPOM is not what he claims to be besides just limming him?

Typically the answer in mafia is no. We don’t have certainty until the flip. That’s how the game works.

There maybe be PRs that can sort NPOM, but then how to do we verify those without a flip?

[Rannygazoo]

I just think that’s a waste of a night and it wastefully exposes a PR if town can sort NPOM without.

[Rannygazoo]

...unless NPOM is werewolf gravedigger, which someone pointed out is a thing

[Rannygazoo]

Whether I do or don’t, it’s not because of you <3

[Rannygazoo]

Frankly embarrassed for town that it took us so long to realize that there’s a scum gravedigger

[Rannygazoo]

1) NPOM no ur not LHF
2) ranny why tf r u so confident NPOM is scum?

1) I don’t even know what LHF is
2) I’m not. I was town lean before and now I’m re-evaluating. No one is confirmed town and no one is off-limits.

[Rannygazoo]

Frankly embarrassed for town that it took us so long to realize that there’s a scum gravedigger

then what's this supposed to mean

I mean it took a really long time for someone (I forget who) to point out that werewolf gravedigger is in the role list. I’m disappointed in town (but mainly myself) for not noticing sooner. We should be playing sharper.

[Rannygazoo]

Still don’t know what LHF is

[Rannygazoo]

My claim is not protecting me. It's not my fault I'm a gravedigger.

This pings me. Why did you claim in the first place?

[Rannygazoo]

i've only just started playing *this* game, due to bad timing irl and that's partly my fault

but on day 1 i've got a pretty decent scumread and a couple townreads after reading so it's actually pretty good imo

I can’t help it if I can’t do a catch up. I’m such a Gemini~

[Rannygazoo]

Who are your strongest town reads then?

Right now my strongest town read is noraa. More because of tone than content. They give the feel of being in the uninformed majority and figuring out the game and reads as they go.

[Rannygazoo]

Titus and EV are town upon a Ranny scumflip as well

I don’t understand what you’re trying to do here. How can you rule out SvS?

[Rannygazoo]

scumposting 101

the comment about day ending and 'hoping' herta would do stuff but didn't… feels empty
threatening with a hammer is like asking for permission, and setting up for a misflip

if ranny ever flips scum with herta alive, herta is town

the fencesit post 'i have no opinion on noraa v shelly but shelly is a good flip' is yikes indeed

I caught way more flak than I expected for the first bit so I don’t have anything new to say about that, other than “Why are you booing me? I’m right!”

I never said shelly is a good flip. Check your sources.

[Rannygazoo]

@Noraa see 788. I don’t have strong town reads (I believe you commented on this), so you being my strongest isn’t saying much.

[Rannygazoo]

Personally I’m expecting far more scum in this game than others have accounted for

[Rannygazoo]

Because it feels like what scum in a multiball game might say.

“If this person who’s not on my team is scum on another faction, then my buddies (or townies I want to pocket) have town cred instantly forever.”

I know the gambit won’t work because I know my alignment, but that’s the scum motivation for a statement like that.

I can’t see the town motivation and I was hoping someone would fill me in.

[Rannygazoo]

I didn’t even vote you because I thought you were scum. It was a pressure vote to get you to straighten up. If I have to say that, it didn’t work, so: UNVOTE:

But you kept at it, and that’s what I don’t get.

uh what

imagine your reaction test didn't succeed in generating AI content
why do you back off
don't you want to solve titus

Of course I do, but once you admit that your action was just pressure, it stops being pressure.

(cc: iamausername)

[Rannygazoo]

Scum or Anti-town: Ranny, red, username, NPOM

So every existing wagon except for one.

You must have a lot of faith in town.

[Rannygazoo]

For your consideration, red's iso:

I forsee a herta lynch today, but if not I will also happily go for shelly and then noraa on a red flip. Obvious distancing.

is your lynchpool only those two today? ik there's quite a bit of time left, and we have two slots that haven't checked in, but aorn

I'm flexible

Going forward, you'll see that this is the core of red's motivation today. "Get any elim, as long as it's not me."

shelly and noraa started off the game by talking about nothing in particular, got extremely defensive when I mentioned they might be the same alignment, started doing some weird distancing stuff. my vote is where it is right now for a reason, I sr herta more than either of you combined. stop acting like you're immune from suspicion just because you post a lot.

I agree with red that shelly and noraa's 1v1 was hard to read. I don't agree that one came out looking better, precisely because it was hard to read. This feels like throwing shade for no reason.

I dont see the point in bringing a lot of attention a conftown slot(at least rn they are conftown)?

Garbage opinion. No one is conftown.

idk my rolepm says town so I guess I'm in the clear

seriously though I think you're missing the point on purpose. npom is not a good slot to be throwing shade on, pick someone else

This right here is very scummy. Our goal is scum hunting, and no one is off-limits until they're confirmed mechanically. To shut down exploring someone's posts because it's the wrong slot is holding back town, period. She'll later claim that this was a joke, or it was just to antagonize me, but I don't care. It feels like she wants to rush an elim without proper discussion first. I've been accused of the same, but I never actually said anything to stop discussion. Now town is turning around its opinion on NPOM so hopefully you can see how wrongheaded this is.

why mention her being a good policy elim then if you're not serious?

Just remarking and generating content. Isn’t that what day 1 is for?

claiming the game is slowing down does the opposite of content generation

This is false and feels really forced. "The day is slowing down" could just be an idle comment or it could mean "pick up the discussion" depending on how you want to read it, but I don't see how it could mean "yes, slow down the discussion more". This isn't part of a real read.

username is a tr for me right now. lots of changing votes, I agree with him on stuff, little jncomfortable that he seems to be jumping on wagons as they form but it seems fine

This is the exact same thing red was doing. I think hypocrisy is NAI but it sure doesn't look good.

if ranny flips town shelly is suspicious as hell

I find this really damning. What she's doing here is trying to chain miselims. If I flip green, she'll try to hurry you along to this other elim that may turn out green too. There's just, like, a complete lack of interest in actually solving the game, all throughout her posts.

I like murdercat's logic for voting npom would be okay doing that today

More willingness to sheep, more "get an elim today, as long as it's not me." Just no town motivation. (Note that this is the slot that she told me not to investigate earlier.)

[Rannygazoo]

I'm trying to look at things from the perspective of someone who can't see my role card. That's how we win.

Someone explain to me why this is so hard for others to grasp.

I'll be sure to use extra LAMIST when talking to Italiano.

[Rannygazoo]

I am Town Fruit Vendor. I'll visit <a townread that I hope won't be killed at night> to prove myself.

@Italiano: look at me I'm so town

[Rannygazoo]

Please unvote before scum quickhammers. Give town a chance to discuss.

[Rannygazoo]

if ranny flips town shelly is suspicious as hell

I find this really damning. What she's doing here is trying to chain miselims.

If I flip green

, she'll try to hurry you along to this other elim that may turn out green too. There's just, like, a complete lack of interest in actually solving the game, all throughout her posts.

If you flip green?


VOTE: Ranny

To help you understand me: I try to be very precise with my language. Set up if/then statements to they say exactly what I mean. I didn't give you the LAMIST you wanted and say "when I flip green" because "when" implies that the event will happen, and I'm not planning to flip. Town still has 3 and a half days to pick a better elim target. Are you going to let them use it?

[Rannygazoo]

Ok, I counted your vote twice since you posted it twice

[Rannygazoo]

If you flip green?

ok ouch

Not ok ouch. Stop misunderstanding me

[Rannygazoo]

can't fruit vendors be scum?

If mafia fruit vendor is vending, then they’re not killing, right? That’s how games work outside of newbie, right?

[Rannygazoo]

Who’s your second choice?

[Rannygazoo]

I am an Innocent Child

[Rannygazoo]

heyheyheyyy c'maahn I'm a little guy, I'm just a little guyy, noo, it's also my birthday, I'm a little birthday boyy

[Rannygazoo]

Who’s your second choice?

Start thinking seriously about this while we wait for SirCakez to confirm.

No one’s thought about anything else for pages jfc

[Rannygazoo]

I tried to give you a claim so you’d leave me alone and let me do this tomorrow, but no, you just became more obsessed with me

[Rannygazoo]

Anyway, you have less than 3 days to reach a new consensus, so stop tunneling and get to it

VOTE: Redcardinal

[Rannygazoo]

I will not be accepting questions until post-game

[Rannygazoo]

“If I flip green” implies 1) that I will flip and 2) that it will be green. I was hoping to postpone 1). Green flip incoming, though.

[Rannygazoo]

When*

Whatever, who cares

[Rannygazoo]

I know that mafia games are No Irony Zones but I’m going to say what I want without fear. Thanks for bearing with me.

I love this role SirCakez thank you

[Rannygazoo]

This entrance does not clear him by any means. If you want to use a lame entrance and something someone said while under no pressure to clear, chances are that it won't work out cuz those r weak reasons to begin with.

I agree with this fwiw. Claiming Hero is just claiming VT that’s slightly harder to elim. Not really an impressive or town-indicative claim.

It’s a moot point now, but multitasking is on according post 5, so a mafia fruit vendor would be able to visit and kill. I guess there isn’t one since no one cc’d

[Rannygazoo]

They had a good bit of time to cc between my claims

[Rannygazoo]

if there's a mafia fruit vendor(assuming that you are the town fruit vendor), their best bet is just to play it off as vanilla town rn cuz two town fruit vendors is impossible and even if they out to get u killed, they die tmrw and one scum for one town aint a fair trade

You’re right, it makes more sense to just act like a goon in that scenario

I feel like this isn’t the think to dwell on today, though

[Rannygazoo]

Noraa can argue unpopular opinions. That’s why people are townreading her

[Rannygazoo]

Not throwing shade. You seemed confused when Primate said you are obviously town.

I have the least amount of information of anyone at this point. Everyone knows their role/alignment AND mine, but I only know mine. I can have my reads but I can’t really rule anyone out.

[Rannygazoo]

“Low effort: the person” is really hard to read and it pings me as scum trying not to blow their cover

[Rannygazoo]

My enjoyment of this game has gone way up, I can't wait to see the mod and scum reactions to that flip

Let's take a close look at the votes on the ranny wagon

It’s super weird because normally a player is gone after the flip, but I get to stick around and bully people

I don’t think I can give a useful opinion on every vote in my wagon because I’m biased for being in the middle of it. (I encourage others to go for it.) I stand by my vote on redcardinal, though. She was acting opportunistically not just on my wagon.

[Rannygazoo]

Just following the instructions in my role pm.

I had a wall on red in 932. Tl;dr she seemed too quick to want an elim without actually caring who the target is or why.

[Rannygazoo]

Username is being coy and implying that he’s mod-confirmed because he can see his own role pm

[Rannygazoo]

I'm going to post some quick incomplete reads. Help town have the perspective of someone they know doesn't have a hidden agenda, help scum know who to kill at night, whatever. We all know I'm dead, doctor/watcher WIFOM nonwithstanding,

Redcardinal: still my top scumread. Nothing has changed since 923 except the intent to vote herta, the other early popular wagon. Give us something new

Herta: I know what it feels like to have town blow up on you over something little, and I think the same thing has happened to Herta. Their questioning later in the day with posts like 720 and 875 feel towny. The alleged scumslip at the beginning of the day isn't worse than murdercat's posts below:

Murdercat:

Also, please have there be a compulsive child killer if this is real that would actually be amazing

I am a little sad about this

Wishing confirmed town would automatically die is not exactly towny.
That and the apparent buddying in 1113 make me get vibes from this slot.

Noraa: Willingness to take an unpopular stand is towny, and unfamiliarity with the roles and rules (like me) suggest that she doesn't have to pay attention to that sort of thing because her role isn't about deception. Could be faked, but probably not.

JOYED: The vibe I'm getting is that preserving a hard-to-read meta is a higher priority than winning. I don't like it (and I'm not inclined to metadive on day 1 anyway), but I can't sort him.

iamausername: By the time username prod dodged with 782, I had 61 posts and username had 8. Furthermore, 6 of those 8 posts were about me. Yes, I said furthermore. The point is, username's initial attempt to sort me looked towny but everything after that felt like looking for easy elims without contributing anything. Plus, I think the latest reads he posted are all wrong. My vote is staying on red but I wholly endorse this meme wagon.

[Rannygazoo]

I’ll switch my vote to username tomorrow if nothing comes up by then.

[Rannygazoo]

You should pressure red more first, what do you want to see?

I want red to follow up on what she said she’d do in her last post

But here we are

[Rannygazoo]

words

This sticks out to me as a weak vote

wrong it's great

providing passive support to the growing Ranny wagon, and doing a whole lot of nothing until Ranny's flip.

lol

VOTE: iamausername

[Rannygazoo]

You really think this town can put that many votes together in 20 hours?

[Rannygazoo]

Username, do you want to claim?

[Rannygazoo]

I don’t understand the shade on italiano because he hasn’t been acting any different from joyed.

Red is failing a charisma check by calling me bad town without explaining why my reads are wrong.

Username’s wall is too little, too late.

I’d rather see the elim be on red or username. No elim is bad, but I’m not going to mindlessly sheep whatever wagon looks like it has momentum.

[Rannygazoo]

Good post

[Rannygazoo]

Sorry, I have a lot of work to do and I kind of need this game on night phase right now

The VT claim feels false. I mean, it’s the most probable town role and it’s the best claim for scum for that reason, but it’s still not incredibly likely.

[Rannygazoo]

I'm also really sus of plus

unless he joins the italiano wagon then maybe he can be forgiven

It gives me the creeps how red keeps trying to manipulate town like this

[Rannygazoo]

Okay red, please briefly convince me it’s italiano without saying things like “I’ll townread you if you do it.” Point me to the smoking gun or the trend that makes italiano scum, because I’m not seeing it.

Pedit: I can’t believe you actually said it

[Rannygazoo]

Fine, I’ll vote.

@MURDERCAT u up?

[Rannygazoo]

The balls on Noraa, putting down a vote and then going on vla

[Rannygazoo]

Sigh. Some chance of catching scum is better than no chance.
VOTE: Italiano

[Rannygazoo]

Thank you for your service

[Rannygazoo]

I want to hear from Ranny, but with an IC all day today I think we are looking good to poe

That's not going to get you very far. Just because you've solved my slot doesn't mean I can solve the game.

Rannygazoo*

- IC

Herta

- not mafia. his vote was pretty pivotal in turning momentum to Italiano, and he had every reason to vote for me if he wanted to. could still be werewolf or whatever, his scumminess from early D1 remains, but i'm not particularly interested in pursuing that today.

redcardinal

- 100% not mafia, and like 99% town. she was clearly invested in securing a correct execution yesterday.

Primate*

- mafia.

PlusJOYED

Wiyvern

arachnidsGrip

- who the hell knows. claimed a useless role, acts like a useless player, could be scum trying to dodge crosskills, could just be an actual useless player. an extremely valid vote.

Iconeum*

- i've liked what i've seen from him, but could certainly stand to see more.

MURDERCAT

Assemblerotws

- probtown for the same reasons as redcardinal. unlike her, he was on the wrong side, but he clearly cared, and specifically clearly cared before Italiano was even on the table.

NoPowerOverMe

- like PlusJOYED but less useless. not mafia because if he's scum, he's a werewolf gravedigger.

EchoVision

- the main thing i remember about Echo is Primate declaring him obvtown for no apparent reason, he's been super null to me. he did vote for Italiano, though. like, i know bussing exists, but i feel like not in this setup, and especially not on a wagon that grew from actual nothing in the last 24 hours of the day.

that's where i'm at rn.

What are the *s?

[Rannygazoo]

I find it funny/convenient that everyone posting so far has agreed to townread each other. I mean, there's a serious chance that town has already lost majority, or is on the verge of it. Going to wait for the other to post before I judge more.

[Rannygazoo]

What are the *s?

Oh, must be prods

[Rannygazoo]

@username: I think your premise of "people who pushed Italiano yesterday instead of username or redcardinal are town" is flawed. Yes, it resulted in

a

correct elim (not

the

correct elim), but it also upped the odds of no elim, which benefits scum. MURDERCAT and I had to scramble to avoid that. So I'm not convinced that everyone on the beginning of that wagon is town by default.

[Rannygazoo]

a) scum would not care who was executed, provided it wasn't one of their own. redcardinal and Murdercat both gave convincing signs that they did care. that's what makes them town to me.

The same is true for town, right? Town doesn't care who is executed, as long as it's not one of their own. I agree that flitting from wagon to wagon is scummy, but the absence of that doesn't prove towniness.

b) people who pushed Italiano yesterday are

not mafia

. not the same thing as town.

Agreed; bussing in multiball is a galaxy brain strat

the rest of the Italiano wagon besides Murder/red was Ranny, Noraa and Titus - all confirmed town - and Herta and Echo, netiher of whom i have townreads on.

But you are reading red/murder as town based on a), and I'm not sure that's right. Especially not your "100% town" on red. Her second half of day 1 looks better than her first half, but it's still not enough for me.

[Rannygazoo]

I don't know if anyone cares, but I wrote a script over the night to calculate the odds of having any given number of scum. This is assuming that if the mod reaches 6 scum or 12 town while building the list, then the next roles are chosen as alignment-appropriate, rather than starting the whole list over and trying again. (This weighs it a little more towards having 6 scum, but otherwise doesn't make a huge difference.) https://pastebin.com/zmXTaRcm

I left out wild card because I don't think it makes sense unless the game is in person. So with 145 roles, 85 are town and 60 are scum. So the odds of any given slot rolling scum are 60/145 = 0.41. (Not a perfect analogy since it's drawing without replacement, but close enough.) With 13 slots, you'd expect 5.37 scum slots.

I found the odds to break down approximately as follows:

1. 1%
   
2. 4%
   
3. 11%
   
4. 21%
   
5. 30%
   
6. 32%

Of course, there can't be 1 or 2 because we caught one on day 1, and there were 2 night kills.

That's why I think town has lost majority or is close to it today. We have a good chance of eliminating scum today by sheer odds.

What I want to know is, is town better off hunting mafia buddies, or other factions?

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: plusJOYED
Ok, let’s lolhammer an inactive slot

[Rannygazoo]

I've skimmed the end of D1 and I'm not sure if there was a case against Ital or it was just luck

Same, but the username wagon was just as bad

[Rannygazoo]

Why tho

[Rannygazoo]

So what do you want to do with plus, then? Are you going to kill them at night?

[Rannygazoo]

What is that supposed to mean? There is no shelly.

[Rannygazoo]

I'm also really sus of plus

unless he joins the italiano wagon then maybe he can be forgiven

It gives me the creeps how red keeps trying to manipulate town like this

ranny if you vote italiano I'll townread you too

A couple of posts from end of Day 1 I wanted to get back to. I'm not sure how they fit in yet.

This is one. I hated this post. At first I thought it was redcardinal being cute, but ranny's follow-up made me think it was sincere.

I think it was sincere in that since red couldn’t mis-elim me, she could only discredit me instead so town doesn’t pay attention to my reads. This was her saying that she’ll stop trying to do that if I sheep her.

[Rannygazoo]

What is the case here? This is astoundingly ugly.

There are people out there killing innocents at night. I think that’s what’s really ugly.

[Rannygazoo]

Jfc

VOTE: npom

[Rannygazoo]

He’s either a werewolf playing dumb or he’s incapable of reading anything except the posts right above and below his

And I’m not too sure about the one below

[Rannygazoo]

It feels like it might be deliberately obfuscating. Like he’s doing it just for the purpose of being hard to read, and that’s his goal rather than finding scum.

(I feel the same way about JOYED’s waste-of-space play, and Echo’s wagon hopping for its own sake.)

[Rannygazoo]

Really committing to it, huh

[Rannygazoo]

Calling it now: npom and red werewolf buddies

[Rannygazoo]

Imagine being in ELo and one of the slots is joyed

[Rannygazoo]

Who do you think is scum, plus?

[Rannygazoo]

VOTE: plusJOYED

[Rannygazoo]

Plus be like

[Rannygazoo]

rather be in elo with joyed than herta

If you can’t keep yourself from tunneling, that’s on you. Herta is at least contributing. Plus showing up every 48 hours in ELo just to prodge would be a disaster.

[Rannygazoo]

And you know he’s not getting night killed

[Rannygazoo]

I’m not convinced eliminating mafia is the best move. Both scum can kill me night 2, then wipe each other out night 3.

[Rannygazoo]

[Rannygazoo]

Good job town. Good thing I was killed when I was. I would have OMGUSed redcardinal and username to death.

[Rannygazoo]

Next time I’m trying to figure out the odds in an open setup, I’ll keep in mind that mods might just not allow the more extreme outcomes.