Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

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I will not push for Dunn’s actual flip until you get back, although I do want that claim now that we have intent

Have a good one! Also agree it would be fun if this was elaborate theatre

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lilith you’d better be town because if you’re scum then skitt is never gonna let me hear the end of it

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whatever happened to your infinity scumread? has that fallen away since you replaced in? you seemed pretty gung-ho about that from what i recall.

either way i'd like an updated read there. i keep to-ing & fro-ing on him. i think he has a creative way with words & concepts and i like his posting style in general. my issue is, i think i tend to positively bias players whose posts i like reading.

Sorry, I’m afraid I’m not necessarily going to be a lot of help here, I feel conflicted too.

This game is one where I’m really struggling to build solid TRs and if I’m honest these are the types of games where I tend to struggle. Frankly, a lot of my early TRs faded because those people just didn’t like, ~do~ anything, and therefore some of my scumreads came up in my reads. However, my gut is still uneasy about them because hey, they were initial pinging my gut for some reason right? The problem is that I lose the faith in the early TRs but can’t really get it in the newer TRs either

Overall, I think infinity is trying to solve the game at this point. I’m concerned that’s something that he’s only turned on now since he got pressured for it D1. But I’m willing to go with him as town so long as there are other slots I’m more uncomfortable with, which is, at this point, most people

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Mena, do you know if skitter would be more open minded to lilith!town as town here? I can relate to the idea of knowing how to read someone and trusting your read in them 100%, but if there are other people in the game that also know how to read lilith, it doesn't make a ton of sense to hold on to the read this long right? Idk, we're getting into the problem of people knowing each other's meta better than me, and generally being better scumhunters, but I wanna know if I wrote skitter off as town too early.

The two people who are probably *best* at reading lili this game are skitt and S_S

They have both been wrong before, I think, but are generally solid there

I’m not sure is the answer to whether town!skitt would be more open to lili!town here, she tends to trust herself so I don’t think it’s that scum indicative for her that she’s sticking to her own reads, however I do dislike that she’s almost ignoring the mechanics side. One thing I need to do before this day is out is evaluate how townie I’d started presenting when lili outed the JK on me, bc if I had already started then I do think it was a really weird thing for scum!lili to do. If I hadn’t started to present as townie (as skitt thinks) then it was a weirder decision to out as either alignment and prob does increase lili’s scum equity

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Dave is honestly kinda scummy but I know I have a bias there

Lili is scummy on play but townie in claim

Skitt is mostly townie on play but with a couple of significant reservations

S_S is making me feel like he’s town but as far as I can see hasn’t really done any solving, which he’s offered explanations for but which I do think makes him +scum. However, skitt thinks he’s strong town, which does significantly increase the odds he’s town if she is

Dunn has been scummy on play but did make the weird hammer and might be trying a little bit harder to live if scum? But this is all wifom. Mostly scummy, also had two dead town shouting that he’s scum as they died

Best Bird just feels sort of townie still but is someone else I’m becoming more concerned about due to lack of content

Peta felt townie D1 but has also just sort of faded out for me. Has been sporadically making and effort and has looked quite good at those points imo, worth noting that DGB thought he was scum along with me as she died. Notably, felt like his tone this game is more serious compared to the one other game I skimmed him in (can’t remember which)

NM — JV felt townie when I got to chat with him for a while that day, but he’s competent at scum and could have been his scumgame I guess. Don’t remember him being terrible or wonderful before that. Reasonable odds of scum? Prob should be in PoE

Hoopla — is I think solving? Like I haven’t got the scumreads on her for most of the game, but TGP thought she was super scummy, and her sheep onto my wagon I thought was v bad, also seemed to conflict heavily with her “scum are in the singles” thing (although admittedly there’s also a high-ish concentration of scum in the doubles according to her research). Is consistent with her last PyP game in pushing this angle, but also, like peta, feel that her tone is a little off. Leaning town I guess?

There’s another slot here who I’ve forgotten is in the game which is honestly probably +scum for them... and it’s infinity, who I was just saying I think comes across more town today, wonderful. Is at least making an effort, but I guess not enough to register for me. Makes me lowkey uneasy that I couldn’t remember him while going through everyone. Conflicted on him, as mentioned, but probably leaning town for now.


What does that add up to when we read without taking into account my PoEs from VCA:

Skitt
S_S, hoopla, lili
Infinity, peta
Best Bird
NM
Dave
Dunn

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(Our first game together since she came back, that is.)

That was GnR:IV right? She was hard to spot there imo but me and ABR destructing the thread probably didn’t help

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I’m pretty sure there is at least one but not 3 scum in (lil, Dave, Best Bird, peta, infinity)

I think there is still a decent chance of 1 scum in (hoopla, best bird, NM)

EBWOP

vote count 2.06

Menalque (6)

: lilith2013, Infinity 324, JacksonVirgo, Hoopla, Dunnstral, TheGoldenParadox

TheGoldenParadox (2)

: Uncrowned, PenguinPower

JacksonVirgo (1)

: petapan

Infinity 324 (1)

: Menalque

Not voting

: davesaz, Something_Smart, skitter30

Deadline: (expired on 2020-11-13 13:00:00)

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

mod notes

:
- skitter30 v/la fridays & saturdays
- JacksonVirgo v/la til 06/11/2020
- quack

There’s also prob 1 scum in (Best Bird, peta, Dave. S_S, skitt)

How does this add up?

If we cross reference the DGB voters with the people who stayed off me D2, who is in both piles

(Best bird, Dave, peta)

There’s also the fact that if there is scum in the 4s it’s (hoopla, NM, best bird) of which I would lean NM, but if it was best bird I think that would spew NM and hoopla town

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this would be a real good time for you to chime in if you're town, S_S

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pls prod dunn

@S_S like, you were being critical of my assumption that there is at least one scum on the DGB D1 wagon, iirc -- what was that criticism based on? do you think executing Best Bird would potentially be a good idea today based on his presence in the [people who were on DGB] and [people who were not on me] groups, and that his scumflip would townspew two otherwise contested slots?

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nah I think it's die die time for dunn

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I'm a vanilla townie, I tried to grab the tracker/jailkeeper slot, and that's why I thought Lilith was town from the start/knew mena was blocked

this is a scumclaim lol

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I also don't think Best Birb flipping scum would spew Hoopla town because that's a gambit I can imagine Hoopla pulling, given how insistent she was that it barely ever happens.

where did it land?

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UNVOTE:

y tho

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ty btw. you easily could have taken that.

you're welcome, I knew what I was doing

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stop letting skitter and mena run the show and elim him already, it's obvious that we need to do so

I don't know, I feel like he's reasonably towny in his interactions with skitter (reasonably because I haven't played with scum!mena but I imagine he's a pretty competent player who knows what he's supposed to sound like as town) and I think it's less unlikely that I didn't actually block the kill than I originally thought

Don't get gaslit

TGP vote doesn't really make sense

davesaz is sidelining all of this hard

What information are we keeping from scum if they dont claim it

More importantly, why are we hammering town instead of the guy who tried to make the kill?

Dunn, what did you think of 2189? Who's scum other than mena?

I'm not reading walls of text or really considering other possibilities until Mena is elim'd

spends a bunch of time complaining we need to vote menalque because you're scum, virtue signalling against the tgp wagon, then hammers them with shit reasoning when the wagon against him is starting to build. this is not to mention it was a wagon where his supposed primary scumread was voting

why is dunn claiming VT a reason to disregard all of this @peta

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I love it when things like that happen

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>be scum!dunn
>you’ve softed a role to use late game if you need it
>you start getting wagoned
>wait, two people saw you soft that role!?
>ohshit.jpg
>talk about how you won’t claim and should just be hammered
>IMMEDIATELY give up on that and talk about how you’re just a VT
>how to explain TMI on mena being blocked without claiming roleblocker!?
>panik.exe
>claim VT who went for JK
>be obvscum
>get eliminated

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Dunn claiming VT here makes him like ++++scum because he’s more than capable of playing strongly and he just straight up hasn’t at all. The ONE possible explanation for that from town!dunn would be him trying to stay out of the spotlight to get to use his PR

He hasn’t. What has he done? Nothing, basically. He’s lazily tunnelled my slot on weak evidence, resolutely refused to do any meaningful work sorting the playerlist besides that, and has generally had an awful progression around the hammer that you noted yourself

Add that to the two most recently dead townies strongly expressing a belief that he’s scum, AND the fact that at worst we lose a VT who is doing nothing to help solve the game, and this is a no-brainer quite frankly

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That relies on the existence of the TMI that Dunn has no legitimate explanation for. How do you think he knew that lilith jailed you?

How do we know he did? I don’t think lilith softed me as a target did she?

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i wanna hear what people think he was softing i guess but i'll think about it

I went back after skitt and Dave said and I think it had to be cop or roleblocker

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Well, your argument in 2736 assumes he did. If he just guessed correctly from her soft, he could have just said as much and claimed the aforementioned role he was softing

And set up a 1v1 with lili? I don’t think that ends well for him

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Actually, I think I’m confused

What are you saying exactly, S_S?

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Alright:

I'm a vanilla townie, I tried to grab the tracker/jailkeeper slot, and that's why I thought Lilith was town from the start/knew mena was blocked

this still feels like a huge stretch tbh

if dunn is VT then he does know that lili took JK slot (I think it's almost beyond doubt at this point that lili took JK tbh)

knowing that, he assumes that the kill was blocked specifically from lili's "sooooooooooo vote:mena" entry to the day

that feels like he's still making several jumps to come to the conclusion that I'm scum and condemned by lili's comment? (1) she has to have chosen JK > tracker (2) the vote has to be related to her NA and not to my EoD1 play (what skitter was calling scummy at the same time and which was leading to the majority of votes towards me at the time) (3) he has to decide that with both of the first two being true, I'm obviously the one who was blocked from making a kill and that there was no kill on me (4) completely disregards the possibility of a doc save on the same night (also (5) and (6) which are there was a commuter dodge or the rb blocked the person making the nk, but these both seem to have been ignored by just about everyone and don't seem likely to me)

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Manlque was fairly obviously blocked, stopping the kill don't out town pr, elim through claim:

this is also still unexplained

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idk I think we still kill dunn tbh

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What information are we keeping from scum if they dont claim it

More importantly, why are we hammering town instead of the guy who tried to make the kill?

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox

Don't vote park me

this feels TMIy (the "why are we hammering town" bit) combined with him then... hammering TGP who I was pushing as scum? so like uhh why does town!dunn do that esp with something as weak as "don't vote park me" as his reasoning

[Menalque]

let's kill dunn baby

kill dunn 2020, the campaign for votes that America really needed

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I do wanna know what the softs that skitter and dave thought they saw were tho

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I've come round to it

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why is dunn being standoffish towny

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Skitter just strongly town pinged me

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Albeit possibly for a bad reason

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actually the more i think about it the more i think dunn!scum makes sense

idk, I think if dunn!scum then she prob just bussed him from a lot earlier to get max cred for the bus

And at this point I don’t really think she looks that bad if dunn!scum and she’s not on

If dunn!town and skitt!scum, this^ just seems like a really weird way to reposition having spent most of the day defending and is very unsubtle and out of the blue. It’s not impossible for her to fake it, but I feel like to most of the crowd here, they’d prefer a trajectory of how she moves from thinking dunn is town to dunn is scum not just popping it here out of nowhere — with the possible exception of her knowing I’d townread it, but like I’m not sure that skitt would care more about my perception of her than the thread in general

So that leaves us with town!skitt being much more likely to do this in the case of town!dunn

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Put more shortly: if dunn is scum skitter is probably town bc I don’t think she takes this line on him

If dunn is town then I don’t think skitt gives up the white knight position that she’s been taking throughout the day in the way she did

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VOTE: Dunnstral

just wanna say that if dunn is scum this vote gets no cred whatsoever on future days, mmkay everyone

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yoinks?

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god fuckin damn it

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your GIF game is still top class, NM

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I don't think role cop is an awful role to have as town in this setup fwiw

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think we're at

G-1

now btw

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is it mafia goon?

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skitter, I think I start being townie from like 1522, even tho the wagon keeps growing on me, which is well before lilith outs her JK on me for N1

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My role sucks

is it mafia goon?

No that's a good role

ohh, you rolled town cop, commiserations

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Put more shortly: if dunn is scum skitter is probably town bc I don’t think she takes this line on him

If dunn is town then I don’t think skitt gives up the white knight position that she’s been taking throughout the day in the way she did

yeah that's p spot on

~ d i s c o m f o r t _____ i n t e n s i f i e s ~

only joking

but also kinda not

oh well I guess at this point I just shelve the paranoia, trust in the rationality and try to not beat myself up too much in the postgame for 'catching' you and then letting you talk me out of it if I'm wrong

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skitter, I think I start being townie from like 1522, even tho the wagon keeps growing on me, which is well before lilith outs her JK on me for N1

ok but the key bit is that *you weren't perceived as being townie until later*

yeh gimme a sec I'm still reading

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sounds good!

I lowkey feel like this is payback for all the times I've intentionally/semi-intentionally made you paranoid by speaking when I knew I should have just stayed quite

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I think it's worth noting that all of (infinity, JV, hoopla, dunn) had absolutely awful votes on me on D2 and I would think there could well be 2 scum there

Dave never actually voted me but made a comment after lili outed that JK that he was fine with me dying

[Menalque]

dunn --> dave, Best Bird --> NM --> peta, hoopla --> infinity, lili --> S_S, skitter

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I would suggest the primary targets for any sort of investigative NA should be in the NM/peta/hoopla segments of that elim chain

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also, did anyone actually end up verifying the existence of the neighbouriser or nah?

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pls no kill me scum, I'm enjoying this game and I promise I'm still misguillotinable if you squint

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Would be good to get that confirmation tho

tbf there is a possibility it was on me (for reasons) and that it got blocked by the JK shot

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I would prefer not to end the day before lilith responds to me

S_S have you got anything you would like to add (like a vote..?)

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jailkeeper doesn't stop actions on its target so that doesn't work

o

well now I'm just insulted frankly

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meh how about this: what if Uncrowned was neighborized and sum decided keeping up appearances in the hood was going to be too much trouble so they shot him

I mean, it's possible I guess, but it doesn't seem particularly likely

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Thing is Dave, I thought about that, and while initially I was quite swayed it then occurred to me that if you’re scum you know I’d flip town and that would make your super early hammer on me look rly bad even with the JK evidence incriminating me

So I’m not sure at all that your not hammering there is as clearing for you as you seem to think it should be

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i mean from my pov that isn't super helpful, but i'm not gonna particularly object due to everyone else's paranoia, etc

but i really really really wanna resolve liliht in some way

If we kill two scum then she becomes self resolving via claim?

[Menalque]

Dunn is gonna flip scum and then tomorrow in my first post I’m gonna quote the flip and your post right there skitter and say “o ye of little faith”

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I mean we have 2 more misguillos incl today before we hit rolling lylo, and then could be staved off with good power usage at night

So if we are accurate with the solve and it includes lili by the EoD tomorrow, it should still be okay to say she resolves by claim on like D7 at worst (or at least goes into a 50/50 claim off)

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I will be legit surprised here if dunn is town

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Consider it this way: if lili doesn’t turn up and provide satisfactory answers to the questions that are awaiting her, I will prove almost infinitely more amenable to the idea of executing her tomorrow

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Let’s get dat flip den

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Sure would be funny if someone els hammered here before NM could...

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Also, to that point — true, they could push you/Dave instead of dunn, infinity. But if Dave is town then they couldn’t push there, and if they pushed you successfully and then dunn got flipped tomorrow, that would be intensely incriminating for the people who pushed to get you > dunn, right? So actually, mafia don’t have that much motivation to strongly fight for a CW if the slot is likely to die the next day anyway

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Could also just be that dunn is town and scum are fine with his elim, of course, but that’s where it’s just wine

Scum have reasons to behave the way they are if dunn is town or scum and dunn is scummy on play, which is a good enough reason to kill him

[Menalque]

Could also just be that dunn is town and scum are fine with his elim, of course, but that’s where it’s just wine

part of me is a little bit paranoid of this

Me too, but then I look at Dunn’s iso again and decide that I’m really fine with it

Also, he’s been active on site since he’s been at risk of elim... what has he tried to do to help town? Not even save himself, but to try to help out town on the right track for tomorrow?

From his point of view, I’m supposedly scum who’s pushed through his guillotine despite damning evidence on me. Why is he not screaming from the rooftops about how I need to die tomorrow? All he’s said is “cop checks skitt not lil”. That’s not really helpful to solving the game tomorrow. Compare with DGB who was so pissed off with the game that she self hammered — her final moments were /still/ in spite of her frustration with town, trying to get her scumreads under suspicion/pressure for D2+

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Dunn, what did you think of 2189? Who's scum other than mena?

I'm not reading walls of text or really considering other possibilities until Mena is elim'd

Like this is Dunn’s position on how scummy I am apparently

Yet despite me being the loudest voice calling for his death today, and having consistently pushed him all day, he has... nothing to say about it. In fact his parting words are about skitter and lilith? It does not add up

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S_S i see you online can you hammer pls

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Do it, NM will be so salty he missed his hammer

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It’s worth it for that alone, honestly

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Also for the scumflip, but at this point that’s secondary

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UNVOTE:

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VOTE: dunn

@NM, i have a gift for you on this blessed day, please find it enclosed in the spoiler tag below!

Spoiler:

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So were u scum dunn

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If u weren’t u should give us a final readslist for tomorrow

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Okay my final thoughts are that I am once again paranoid about infinity after skimming his ISO in the shape of water micro that just finished where he was town and seemed much more proactive than here in the early game etc

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Which must be very convenient for your scumgames!

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Also, c’mon ducky, I just saw you posting, where’s my flip huh?

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Yah I hammered last page

Why is goon vs non-goon important?

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O right, yea lol

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That would lowkey be incredibly funny tho, and I’d be fine if we lost because there was a conversation in the scum pt like

“I really wanna go for jk, lilith, do you mind?”
“Maaaaaaybe”
“No but seriously, it’s cool yeah?”
“Might be might not be”
“Okay, I’m submitting jk”
“Wow, are you in for a surprise”
“Haha, good joke”
>receives role PM
“LILITH WHAT THE FUCK”

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Strong TR is skitt

Probably TRing S_S again, and I guess I will sheep skitt on infinity

Think hoopla is prob town too tbh

Think lili is prob town mechanically

Max 1 scum in (Best Bird, N_M) imo

Elim through (Dave, peta, Best Bird, N_M) bearing in mind the 1 scum max thing

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aaaaand now I feel guilty

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Ducky really going for the “build up the suspense” mood on this one huh? :p

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Maybe I miscounted and there wasn’t a hammer

Now’s your chance N_M!

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You didn't miscount. The VC's on the same page.

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also nah not really other than dunn dying and being yet still scummier even in death

me and skitter both think we might die tonight and have given readslist for if either of us is correct

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I guess you had to be there...

I'm taking this pagetop for that

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VOTE: lilith

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I don’t think we massclaim today, it’s still not lylo

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Uh

I’m not sure that’s true because I think if an invest has a useful result it’s better they out and then maybe we massclaim

If we don’t have that then if it turns out we only have one invest it’s probably better tomorrow

Also, given that we’re still a day away, I don’t trust PRs not to falsely claim VT today to avoid targeting

[Menalque]

I'm only a soft guilty if lilith is town

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also I've already claimed

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also we have like 6 and a half days and we're not forgoing all day play to get into a back and forth about massclaim

masjclaim today is, I think, quite strongly suboptimal even as it clears up one or two things -- things it doesn't help solve are, for instance, if we have a Doc, who did they prob!clear with their action on N1? because the doc obviously /shouldn't/ claim, so we don't get that info

if we wagon someone other than Lilith today, then we get a claim from them if they're PR, but otherwise they don't have to out it if they are

and also we're only in lylo tomorrow if we misguillo today, which is why the focus needs to be on hitting scum today, not worrying about which day we massclaim on (also, hopefully any claims have either crumbed and/or have a clear and logical explanation of why their claim is true à la skitter's style)

so basically there's every reason for scum to want claims today to finish figuring out the setup, which I guarantee they're already doing and are probably mostly finished with, and relatively little upside for town other than "if we miss today, people are locked into claims and I won't be as paranoid about certain claims" -- and people AREN'T even locked into claims, because there are good incentives for everyone to lie in a pre-lylo massclaim

[Menalque]

aside from everything else, glad to hear you're doing okay, ducky

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does anyone have a reason why lilith shouldn't die today?

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as far as I'm concerned right now the pool is (Best Bird, peta, Dave, hoopla, NM, lilith, infinity) and you earn your way out

I'm trusting skitt on S_S along with my initial read there

[Menalque]

I also think skitt is fairly solidly accurate as town, she thought lilith was scum, she's dead now

I also think that lilith, who knows me and skitt, might have been keeping her alive so long as we were in conflict/sceptical, and she's now dead because we'd got to the point where we were actually coming together and townreading each other

[Menalque]

regardless, lilith should die today unless there's like, a really good reason not to do that

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fyi, "she claimed JK" is no longer a good reason, for anyone wanting that

although, lilith, you do still need to claim your JK

[Menalque]

If scum are most of the way done figuring out the setup and we have no clue, wouldn't a massclaim help us more?

The cop should claim today for sure.

I will defer to you on this, but I'm not persuaded for all the reasons I gave

[Menalque]

it's cop, watcher, doctor, neighbouriser who are unclaimed

do you think any aside from the cop should claim, S_S?

[Menalque]

and before anyone claims "TMI!?!??!?!?!!!!!!" about me saying watcher -- I'm just using it as shorthand for the slot and I'm assuming that most people would choose watcher

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good vote but you're still back in the scumpool for now

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i feel like the cop role is very likely in scum's hands

why?

[Menalque]

ugh, skitt, why didn't u activate ur PGO last night?

was it because of dunn pushing for a cop check on you?

[Menalque]

my strong towns are mena and ss

i'm still weakly townreding infinity

everyone else is in my pool on some level, esp. if dunn is town

my key takeaway, of course being, that lilith is still scum unless dunn is exactly mafia goon

[Menalque]

I'm actually really starting to scumread you again infinity and it's literally only skitter calling you town that is stopping me

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which is then added wine, because would you kill her as one of the main people supporting you!town?

I think if lilith is scum maybe not, but if lilith flips town then it's not an awful play for scum!you at all

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I'm not saying this IS what happened btw, and anyone trying to use this argument tomorrow if I'm dead should be super sceptical of the person making it -- but I do see a world where you note my desire to deadsheep players, kill skitter to frame lilith + lock in her TR on you, then kill me before I can tunnel you the next day

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but I'm definitely considering it

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lilith is at L-3 but de-facto it's L-2 because Not_Mafia, so one more vote max pls

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I don't think bird and NM are ever scum together because I don't think JV is a meme-y enough player to take 4 with his scumbuddy

I strongly suspect davesaz would be in place of one of NM/JV if lilith is correct

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ahh fuck it, maybe we should just massclaim

S_S? thoughts?

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Who suggests the JK claim then? Lilith and dave don't seem like super strong scum players if they're scum here.

and?

[Menalque]

as skitter said, the claim didn't actually necessarily make that much sense because of the timing regardless of her alignment

[Menalque]

do you TR lilith on play @peta

[Menalque]

god if I were scum it would have been such a good fucking play to no kill, then get lilith to claim JK and claim her shot on me while I was under pressure, trusting in me to not get executed despite that

the question is, if no doc, do scum ever no kill on N1? bc I guess it's too big brain to be reasonable for scum to no kill and to then claim a JK on me? right? to try and get me eliminated for the missing NK

[Menalque]

no but i don't really townread anyone

why don't you townread me?

[Menalque]

god if I were scum it would have been such a good fucking play to no kill, then get lilith to claim JK and claim her shot on me while I was under pressure, trusting in me to not get executed despite that

Don’t even say things like this

:3

[Menalque]

fwiw, although self-meta obviously, I almost certainly don't push lilith here if I'm paired with her

if I bus I go for the third team member, and I probably don't bus at all given how confused the gamestate is

[Menalque]

And I'm down to zero people I can trust in terms of TRs.

seems to be a theme today

you had a solid TR on me yesterday/day before that, what happened to that?

[Menalque]

you know what would be really funny

[Menalque]

you know what would be really funny

[Menalque]

imagine someone gets a PM for a game, and when they open it it says cop. so then they go into the game, and the game is another run of a setup that they've played before. and in the game they played before, there were some of the same people. and IN that game they'd played before, they claimed cop in their first post for a meme. and then they enter into this NEW game, knowing that some of the same people are in it, and are never gonna take a cop claim seriously, and imagine that they then claim cop, again

[Menalque]

does it sound like I'm joking?

[Menalque]

I am not joking

[Menalque]

targeted skitter both the first 2 nights, inno'd on the second, then targeted lilith last night

but was blocked on nights 1 and 3

[Menalque]

and now provide my crumbs but uh

I hardly think that is necessary in this case

[Menalque]

*I'd

not and

[Menalque]

idk how I could be counterclaiming without knowing for sure if we have a doctor or a roleblocker

I think this is probably a gambit by lili and NM

[Menalque]

compelling stuff as ever, N_M

[Menalque]

I'm just trying to figure out why lili bothers using her JK at all last night if this is what they were going for

[Menalque]

what sort of big brain play would I be going for here that makes sense exactly?

unless you think that this is literally the scumteam trying to pull a gambit, but honestly, it'd be easier to just elim probably like BB -> peta for the win

[Menalque]

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

[Menalque]

I jailkept NM last night.

why?

[Menalque]

UNVOTE:

Can we massclaim now?

absolutely not

[Menalque]

in my eyes, N_M is 95%+ town

why?

neighbouriser has never been picked by scum in PYP X/Y (13-0 so far).

i play the odds.

but this is really bad logic and just fallacious?

[Menalque]

i almost think the doc should claim

absolutely not

[Menalque]

here's why the logic is bad on the "neighbouriser is town" thing -- first up, it's not something you can predict purely off've past occurrences. like, problem of induction? but beyond that -- if you're mafia, and you're low down in the draft, why not go for something you think you can get? that's a pretty limited number of roles that might still be floating around. so you plump for this slot, correctly apparently, why not go for neighbouriser? that's almost entirely dependent on JV's personality

[Menalque]

Yeah that's what I'm saying. Like without the massclaim lilith, n_m, and mena are all unknowns for me and I'd want to elim dave, but that's just based on PoE.

wait, talk me through this? surely it makes more sense to elim within us even if it was me?

[Menalque]

I didn't crumb it beyond mentioning skitter in my first post and then dismissing it and leaving her as my top TR -- alone -- at the end of the day

[Menalque]

I jailkept NM last night.

why?

Because I thought he might be scum? Because he was unlikely to be a TPR? because he was unlikely to be a scum PR so he was more likely to be the one making the kill?

why were you hunting scum when there are still 3 of them and it would just give another ambiguous soft-guilty? instead of the widely accepted correct meta way which is to use it like a doc until scum numbers are down?

also, if we're in a full 8 TPR setup scum have multitasking anyway

[Menalque]

doctor should not claim because (1) it's not, lili could have JK'd me last night

and (2) if we elim in me/lili/NM there's no reason to out them

[Menalque]

you called skitter likely scum and me locktown at one point. that’s not a thing that a cop with an innocent on skitter does.

it would hurt the odds of skitter surviving any further if I didn't act ambiguously on her? I wanted scum to think there was still doubt in my mind about her to try to maybe reduce the odds of her dying

I made sure that by the EoD she was unambiguously at the top of my reads

[Menalque]

and me locktown at one point.

failing to see how this is relevant?

[Menalque]

if you’re a cop and you don’t have an innocent on me then why would you say something that could be taken that way?

because I'd clearly revoked it by the end of the day and I assumed that people would look at my pointed remark at skitter at start of day and sole TR status at the end of day as the most indicative things if I died, vs the various shit I say in the course of the day

I don’t (didn’t) know what the “widely accepted meta way” is. I have close to 0 knowledge of what the proper “mechanics” for PR usage is.

this seems? weird? seeing as I think either skitt or I asked you about it when we quizzed you on choosing me as a N1 target?

[Menalque]

S_S where have you gone

[Menalque]

also Dave, also peta

[Menalque]

I feel like he's played this day very weirdly.

what do you mean by this?

[Menalque]

I was thinking about that, and the only thing I can come up with is if scum were worried that either skitter or I would be watched

if so, lili uses the block on me (they're killing skitt) bc she's worried about where to claim it if I'm watched and people later ask her why she didn't protect me or skitter

[Menalque]

you know what would be funny?

[Menalque]

fakeclaiming cop twice in one game

[Menalque]

mena pls

[Menalque]

okay, so

I think infinity and hoopla are both locktown by their reactions tbh

I'm pretty deeply unsettled by S_S disappearing like that, especially as there was a moment there when I saw him come online in online users at the bottom of the main page, but then disappeared almost immediately and didn't comment anything in the interim. this is a big question for me now of whether to trust skit's read or not

NM I think is very likely to be town from his reaction

Lilith's reaction was... very meh? not exactly what I'd expect to see from someone who just caught scum, but equally quite plausibly someone from someone who knows I'm lying

peta could have been a scum reaction

Dave could be a scum reaction

BB not here sadly, but could be scum regardless

[Menalque]

but like, from a PoE of 7 down to a PoE of like 4-5 which seems like a win to me

[Menalque]

I don't see why it's an asinine reaction test rather than a useful one?

[Menalque]

it's helped me sort 3 slots I was conflicted on?

[Menalque]

like I appreciate it's irritating being had, but I didn't do it (just) for my own amusement, and it wasn't trolling but had a practical purpose?

[Menalque]

infinity is like, radiating town rn and so is hoopla to a slightly lesser extent

I think NM is more likely town than not from his reaction, especially the bit where he said "0/14 now"

[Menalque]

I see u r online again S_S, would u care to post now

[Menalque]

interesting that obvtown infinity also called you out as off, tho

[Menalque]

and tbf it doesn't matter if you are town so long as the PoE is correct

[Menalque]

minimum 1 in 5 in {me, infinity, menalque, dave, smart}.

what was the logic here?

[Menalque]

you could have outed the doc as logically it was near enough to a direct counterclaim.

I took a calculated risk

[Menalque]

1in fact, if you're scum we may have caught you in a bind where you overlooked that a doc claim proves you're scum, and you can now just safely revoke your claim under the lol-gambit clause.

2or you could be town and you've muddied the waters for no reason. i don't know. but don't tell me whatever "reads" you got from it were worth it.

gonna address these points in a separate post:

(1) I did actually fuck up my claim, but not in that way. my initial plan was to use my meme claim to real claim, claim blocked so I wasn't false guiltying anyone (where if I was wrong I'd be instayeeted tomorrow) and I forgot again that JK doesn't block the person targeted. so I just wanted to use it to 1v1 lilith and NM, where I was and still am pretty confident in lilith scum. if I'd succeeded, scum almost certainly target me tonight, and if they don't it confirms a doctor. if they do, and I die, it confirms no town doctor/potentially scum role blocker

but against me doing this gambit as scum: why would I feel the need to? I might for funsies, that's true, but essentially, I'm in a pretty good position as scum rn. even if my team is at risk, probably bussing the weaker one is enough to win in 5p lylo for us. this just makes people questioning of my slot and pisses them off for no reason

(2) I'm aware that it seems like it's muddying the waters. but I think seen in the clear eyed vision of tomorrow it was a very worthwhile move that has helped put scum on the defensive by creating confusion in the gamestate. and I think it will still be clear that I'm town once it's been talked through, and I think knowing I can work with you and infinity as town is incredibly worth it, because I function far better as town when I have people I can trust to talk things through with

[Menalque]

S_S where have you gone

Playing games with friends, sorry :3

I am worried about you being scum bc of how you disappeared but I'm inclined to trust skitter's read on you and then

blame

gently rib her about it after the game if ur scum

[Menalque]

wait, do they not get the multitasking too if they get informed that all town roles have been taken

ducky, clarification pls?

[Menalque]

well shit

I could've sworn I read somewhere that they would get informed that all roles were taken and be given multitasking if that were to happen

[Menalque]

idk if I like peta's ATE here, but I am considering putting him at the end of the people I wanted deaded because of it

[Menalque]

With 9 alive, it takes 6 to eliminate.

wow, we have to get 66% to eliminate today? I appreciate the extra challenge, good duckling!

[Menalque]

I think it's honestly more likely that cop just hasn't been taken

[Menalque]

so does anyone have a problem with just sequentially eliminating (Best Bird, Dave, lilith, peta)?

[Menalque]

oh, good catch, S_S

[Menalque]

I mean I almost certainly claim an inno on the person I think is the doctor and then kill them at night while claiming they were a doc claim, misguillo someone today, then fake a guilty for the win

[Menalque]

skitter also had a strong and consistent TR on S_S -- why is he still there?

[Menalque]

With 9 alive, it takes 10 to eliminate

well, GG scum, congrats

u win this time

[Menalque]

Lilith won’t be able to jk you because we’re flipping her today

[Menalque]

Also not at all sold that Dave is town, fwiw but he wasn’t my top pick today anyway

I think if he claims a guilty in lylo it’s super sus, so we need to try to hit scum today to force him into not having that option

Also, Dave, why did you out exactly?

[Menalque]

I’m still really okay with just going through all of (Dave, lilith, Best Bird, peta)

[Menalque]

You or me, now!

lol this is so awful tonally

[Menalque]

@ALL -- PICK ONE OF US AND GET IT OVER WITH. QUIT FUCKING AROUND.

as is this lololol

[Menalque]

hey NM, why'd you try to neighbours me?

[Menalque]

Who do you think would be the funniest person to flip today, NM?

[Menalque]

I’m very confused by why dave’s claim makes him town?

[Menalque]

Dave is scum, that seems pretty obvious

Best Bird is leaning scum but sadly not sure so if I am the flip today for what are genuinely unknown and confusing reasons so be it but ur prob gonna lose tomorrow or when the inevitable two scumpool slots are the ones you’re choosing between

Lilith is probably scum

Peta seems likely as scum here given this latest push on me? And the ATE now looks quite bad imo

I’m sticking with the infinity/S_S townreads even tho they both concern me a lot here

Hoopla is town

[Menalque]

I’m just going to trust skitt because she’s more competent than me

Anyway, I get to claim that I am a genius here either way because either I caught S_S/infinity/...NM? even tho I sheeped reads and we lost OR it is lilith/Dave/peta or BB and i get to claim I’m a genius for setting aside my ego and following skitter

[Menalque]

Win-win boiz

[Menalque]

Skitter, if I don’t self-hammer it’s only out of respect for you

[Menalque]

Oh and uncrowned and TGP actually

I have no regrets on DGB or dunn

[Menalque]

Oh wait maybe lilith is town? And this is (Dave/peta/really loooks like infinity but probably BB unless infinity did a really good acting job around the cop claim and skitter was totally wrong there too) trying to setup a chain misflip on her

[Menalque]

So scum went for a no-kill gambit?

Maybe? Or they tried to kill me? Or there’s a doctor who isn’t claiming and is false claiming VT or something else?

[Menalque]

Why is Dave town for claiming watcher?

[Menalque]

Why does peta-scum do his little gambit instead of just claiming he went for watcher from the start?

I’m not even clear on what the gambit was exactly but I’m also high so maybe I’m missing something

[Menalque]

Why does scum!dave pick 1-shot watcher? It's such a weak role

Who says he did? Could be the watcher slot is the one not in the game that scum is informed of

[Menalque]

Like scum are going for an endgame play here and the first step to that is trying to get my misguillo so that they have a spare NK tomorrow but still a way to remove me before lylo

So peta “confirming” Dave to try and take them both out of the pool seems likely to me?

[Menalque]

I’m not even clear on what the gambit was exactly

He claimed that he went for N3 vig initially, then after everyone had claimed he retracted and said he went for watcher.

Idk, does this add more credibility or less to Dave claiming to be watcher?

[Menalque]

If it adds more at first glance, I don’t see why it’s more likely to be true than a gambit? I’m standing by the correct pool being (Dave, peta, lili, BB)

[Menalque]

If we clear that pool, we win, if you kill me we maybe win anyway but depends what stage we get to

Prob decent odds if you can hit the scum tomorrow (it’s pretty obviously dave) then sort between the tricky slots of (lilith, PP, BB) after that

Or tbf skitt was really confident on lili!scum so maybe do her > Dave? And they might well be scum together anyway

But like 5p lylo is probably very unpleasant

But by the time of 3p at least the person who’s left who’s not 2 of those slots will have a 50% chance if the game isn’t over before thst

[Menalque]

So peta “confirming” Dave to try and take them both out of the pool seems likely to me?

Sure. But if he was gonna do that, why draw attention to it? I'm sure they had worked out their claims by the time massclaim started, so why not just claim he went for watcher from the start and then when dave claims be like "oh look there's the watcher, I knew it had to be somewhere"?

Does “doing a gambit” make peta look more or less town?