Open 798 | PYPX/Y+I/M | Game Over!

[davesaz]

i did it because the idea of bidding a million was funny to me

Someone once chose pi to about 8 or 9 digits, no decimal. They wanted to choose with the decimal and the mod wouldn't allow it.

[davesaz]

Hoopla's analysis was really valuable last time.

But that alone, combined with the number of players here who were in that game, makes it less valuable.

This has been said in other ways already, but if Hoopla rolled scum I pretty much expect the scumteam to double or triple just to exploit the historical numbers game. That idea meshes well with choosing informed as well. Note, I'm saying this without having referred back to the numbers, so I could be talking out my ass if she's a singleton.

[davesaz]

I guess my feeling om doubling up is that the wifom boost scum gets isnt worth deliberately throwing away the chance to get prs - in late game the 'doubling up' reasoning for clearing someone hasnt been given that much weight in my experience in practice

But if someone thinks that wifom boost is worth it, the calculation becomes different, obviously

Last game (that I modded) the scum team got absolutely nothing out of their PRs other than being caught.
Players who were in that game were discussing how it might be better to just ignore the PRs as scum.
Though it's also arguable that the scumteam made very bad choices...

I would assert that it's a bad strategy for town to focus in on the picks in early game. Play the game like it's mountainous, at least day 1, and see what the mechanics say as the game develops.

[davesaz]

VOTE: lilith2013

[davesaz]

Everyone must be busy today.

[davesaz]

Sure, but there isnt oodles to talk about otherwise yet

We talk about who was placing undue emphasis on it. Or make a big wagon and see what comes of it.

[davesaz]

I think 41 is a pretty good question. Why do you see it as meaningless?

[davesaz]

sorry, to be clear i meant in a 'trying to determine if he's town' sort of sense!

Slight over reaction I think.

[davesaz]

also lmao at people asking something_smart to "vote" or if he "has reads". he exists on a different plane from us mere mortals

light buddying?

[davesaz]

Yeah that looks weird enough to vote and see what happens.
VOTE: JacksonVirgo

[davesaz]

I got a chuckle out of 301 and 302.

[davesaz]

Or make a big wagon and see what comes of it.

Reminder @whomever didn't like my Jackson vote.
@rest, it doesn't work unless the wagon stays at least for a while.

Nobody asked, but my lilith vote was because she went out of her way to pagetop.

[davesaz]

In the last 4 pages, 1 of which appeared while I was reading, I think TGP looks like scum.
VOTE: TGP

[davesaz]

In the last 4 pages, 1 of which appeared while I was reading, I think TGP looks like scum.
VOTE: TGP

Talk about it a little bit?

Oh i also have some scumping on dave, i forgot to say that

I think Dunn's response looks better than skitter's.

[davesaz]

how are we at 15 pages

i swear

i didn't get the daystart pm that long ago

the entire lilith wagon feels manufactured and VOTE: penguinpower is pinging me especially hard, as is hoopla for what boils down to opportunistic wagon hopping.

Starts off highly apologetic. Why such emphasis?

i think JV is town, because it seems like their wagon started as a town-driven CW to lillith before hoopla jumped onto it.

This early in the game I don't think that thinking of wagons as CWs is a town oriented mindset. In the town mindset it's a CW if and only if you suspect the target of the 1st wagon. In the early game we have multiple wagons which are on unknown alignments and we don't know whether the 2nd one is in response to the 1st one unless it's either stated directly as such or if there are signs that it's competitive.

i think JV is town, because it seems like their wagon started as a town-driven CW to lillith before hoopla jumped onto it.

sorry, let me rephrase this with some more clarity. basically, i think JV's wagon began with town (lillith and petapan) and i think hoopla is scum that jumped on it. because hoopla put a vote down there, it makes me townlean on JV.

Indirectly scumreading Hoopla but nowhere in this ISO is it made clear why Hoopla would be a scumread.

jackson wagon was hot and new
lillith wagon was an rvs wagon based essentially solely on the fact that they were first in the PL

penguin

you can call my takes bad but calling me scum for them is a terrible take

yourself

This is indicative of scum caught for the wrong reason. Though it is pretty weak for that tell coming from someone who hasn't really been under heavy suspicion. I'm not the only one who thought this.

apologies town driven cw is probably the worst way i could have worded it ever

a new wagon started by town that scum!hoopla jumped on

Again with the apologies. I don't think I have played with TGP enough times to be able to say for certain, but this is pretty early in the game to be so worried about how one's posting looks and it seems perhaps out of character.

[davesaz]

Indirectly scumreading Hoopla but nowhere in this ISO is it made clear why Hoopla would be a scumread.

it's in his first post? "opportunistic wagon hopping". strong noob vibes.

Eh, fair enough. I'm used to much more though it is extremely early still.
I'm certain TGP has been in enough games to not be considered in that category. I'm just not sure I have a strong meta handle yet.

[davesaz]

Ok how do you get from that thought to 'this is town-indicative for jv'

So it doesnt get lost in the shuffle ^

Who was that for, TGP?

[davesaz]

@mod you missed my vote in 444 as well.

[davesaz]

and after reevaluating my read on JV it's more of a townlean than a townread

How do you feel about JV's posts independent of wagons?

[davesaz]

Nobody asked, but my lilith vote was because she went out of her way to pagetop.

there's nothing wrong with that.

Uhhh, what even is this?

There were people saying that the lilith wagon had formed because she had first pick in the draft.
I explained my vote relative to that assumption.
Not sure whether PP was saying there's nothing wrong with voting people for pagetopping, or if there's nothing wrong with pagetopping.
Enigmatic, but I give a small number of weak town points for it. More specifically for not saying my post is scummy since I lobbed it out there as a tool to gather exactly that kind of response.

[davesaz]

Is there a reason you've singled out TGP here while ignoring most of the others slots in the game?

I don't normally comment on stuff I agree with or butt into other people's conversations.

[davesaz]

i also just realised jackson virgo is in the group of 4's. this is shocking play on my part. there's no way i'm executing from that bracket on D1.

More focus on posting and less on numbers.

[davesaz]

there is max one scum amongst us 4's, unless a zany gambit is afoot.

If there are multiple 4's, one of them would want to make this argument.
If I had rolled scum I totally planned to talk the team into doubling or tripling just to break the numbers game.

[davesaz]

Hoopla's joining of your wagon though makes me believe that if one of you is scum, the other will not be.

Nah, never underestimate the power of an early bus. It's basically without risk and can establish anti-associatives if too many people think this way.

[davesaz]

dunnstral - played a game as scum against him recently, and he was a dominant voice on D1 that seemed quite obviously town. granted, i had confirmed info that game which can sometimes trick you into thinking someone is more town than they actually are, but i haven't seen similar town energy from him yet.

He has towngames like the one you describe, but he also has towngames where he's more underwhelming and absent

I approve of your assessment of me : thumbsup:

My experience is mostly the underwhelming games.

[davesaz]

I don't like the fact they refuse to read in the 4s or whatnot, I feel that's just stupid for town to do.

Exactly, the numbers should be the last thing on our minds d1. It doesn't actually become relevant until someone early in the draft doesn't get NK'd.

[davesaz]

Is there a world where all the PRs are active btw?

I have not looked at all previous runs, but AFAIK there has always been at least one PR that is not chosen in the draft.

[davesaz]

Get fucked Hoopa I now have the cake!

It doesn't appear on my browser, so I think it shows based on the client-side timestamp. Happy scumday in advance I guess?

[davesaz]

sorry to be self-indulgent but do you have any thoughts on Post 552

It seems mostly accurate and I would like to hear a response from dave if he hasn't given one yet.

I did, so you can comment on it.

[davesaz]

Oh, this?

I don't normally comment on stuff I agree with or butt into other people's conversations.

It doesn't really feel satisfactory to me. It's certainly possible to respond to someone without butting into their conversation.

Of course it's possible. I'm saying I don't normally do it.

[davesaz]

tgp

I dont think they're that bad tbh

Ignoring the 4's cuz they're doubled is silly, let's just focus on whoever we think is scum!

i don't think they actually believe what they are saying.

Eh, maybe I'm underestimating a bit on the commenting on things I agree with thing.
I agree with this. Though PP in general is giving me trouble this game. I don't remember if I normally have that much trouble.

[davesaz]

tgp

I dont think they're that bad tbh

Ignoring the 4's cuz they're doubled is silly, let's just focus on whoever we think is scum!

i don't think they actually believe what they are saying.

Followup: Is your lilith vote more or less grounded than your thought that TGP doesn't believe what they're saying?

[davesaz]

I hope DGB's RL lightens up and Pine is able to play soon, a 7 day deadline is mighty fast with 2 absent.

[davesaz]

Did you have a reason for lilith scumread?

[davesaz]

yes - mostly her posting on ss and skitter

482 felt like fake paranoia

Thanks -- yeah I see those and have somewhat mixed feelings on it. It seems rather far fetched as a theory, but I'm not sure it's AI to be concerned about a possible hack job. In particular what motivation would scum have to bring up that type of concern early on vs. trying to ride it out? On the other hand there are some people who try to play the martyr as scum in that situation. Town in the #1 position have to be constantly on the lookout for scum trying a cheap miselim. I don't know lilith well enough to use meta. So yeah, big ball of undecided here.

[davesaz]

it usually takes me a while to read low signal:noise players.

If you're going to call Uncrowned a low signal:noise, I'm going to question whether you're actually reading or if you're merely looking at post count.
I did a quick skim and I don't see any fluff at all in that ISO. It's all game related commentary and pretty much spot on in terms of relevance.

[davesaz]

dave is slightly weird because they seem to be focusing on me to a greater extent than they should be

How many of my posts have been specifically about you?

[davesaz]

I think people's reasons for scumreading hoopla are not the best but I am also getting scumvibes from her.

What about her is scummy to you, then?

And if you can go a bit further, what do you think aren't good reasons for her being scumread?

It's hard to explain, but I want to say it's her level of comfort with certain things. It makes sense to not necessarily want to elim in the 4s, but I think she may be more worried about pulling a gambit since they did that before.

I think hoopla, like s_s in a way, is slow to jump to conclusions, and e.g. saying she'll sort you later since you're very active makes sense from a town perspective, since it's hard to appear towny for long periods of time when you're very active.

This didn't really make any sense to me. You're mentioning attributes of her posting but not saying what those attributes tell you about her alignment.

[davesaz]

680 feels manufactured and 691 feels like buddying.

680 is extremely precise, you're not wrong there. Have you seen the glory of my precision before? It seems like perhaps not.
I don't give compliments often. Would you look at Uncrowned's posting and say it's low signal high noise? Sometimes the truth must be spoken.

That said, I do appreciate Hoopla's response. I often say we have two ears (eyes) and one mouth (keyboard) for a reason, and there is much value in reading much and saying little.

[davesaz]

I like the layout of the catchup (might steal that tbh)

Nah, links are worse than useless. Quote or nothing.

[davesaz]

Just "town" and "scum" with no words about why is also useless.
It's a bunch of effort with no discernable meaning.

[davesaz]

Well, I used effort in the administrative copy paste of URL's sense, not the putting thought into what you're seeing sense.

[davesaz]

I don't think we want to lim lilith today cause she's a PR, time for a hoopla wagon?

It's about time someone had the guts to say this.

but if she's a scum pr that would be a good thing wouldn't it

In the game I just got done modding, scum had 2 PRs and got zero utility out of either one.

The top 4 or so slots are self-resolving. If they get NK'd then that's painful but it's life. If they don't get NK'd and there isn't a save to explain it then we eliminate them later.

[davesaz]

In a closed game we wouldn't know who potential PRs are. You'd get softs and crumbs instead.
In this situaion the top 1/3 of the game have basically softed something.
If you would give it space in a closed game, then you should give it space here.
If you'd eliminate it despite the claim because it's scummy AF then that's clearly on the table.

If the lilith wagon folks are serious about it then we need a lim-1 and a claim with enough time in the day to evaluate whether we believe it or not.

UNVOTE:
I haven't decided who among the bad agenda folk are scum and who are just wrong.

[davesaz]

VOTE: lilith2013

Elim-1

@mod: it helps to have the "with n alive it takes v votes" line in a VC

[davesaz]

VOTE: lilith2013

Wait, I thought you were null reading lilith and we shouldn't elim the top draft slot?

I at least want a claim I think

I said that if we're going to go there we should do it with more time left in the day.
Skitter said she was sure, so I figured we might as well force the issue on that read earlier rather than later.

[davesaz]

Why so quick to compromise? We still have 3 days

It's forcing us to have the discussion on whether the scumread from skitter is real or not, now instead of 3 days from now.
I see quite a good back and forth between S_S and skitter. PP also weighing in on his shared experiences with S_S and lilith.

[davesaz]

@petapan I too am very skeptical of DGB's catchup.

[davesaz]

Actually town doesn’t have a tracker right? Honestly I feel like skitter is confident enough that we maybe just lim lilith here. But I think we should talk about it more.

PEdit: you didn’t need to put it to L-1 though?

Town could have a tracker unless there has been a JK claim I've missed.

The E-1 was a calculated risk. I thought the potential reward in reactions and discussion outweighed the risk.

[davesaz]

I wish there were more players with that attitude instead of asking for those infuriating "intents to hammer."

Is getting a claim not what intent to hammer is designed to accomplish?

I hate that.

You catch so many scum running them up and then they scramble to fakeclaim. Asking for "intent to hammer" just buys time for scum.

Rush-claiming is never an issue for a townie. See my sig.

Allowing people to refuse to claim unless they see intent is what you're talking about, and I agree meta has moved way too far toward thinking premature claims are scummy and expecting people to try to hold out.

[davesaz]

I don't see why it's hard to understand what lilith said. 888 was the obvious interpretation. DGB's reaction is excessive.

[davesaz]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

See 750 and 752. I don't think she's actually trying to figure out alignments.

[davesaz]

The best type of pagetop, where you punch submit repeatedly until it takes.

[davesaz]

I agree there is a difference between "town" and "less likely to be scum than you think".

Almost nobody ever gets into the "town" category for me. In any game. Like people who are flipped and IC's. Because I'm never 100% sure of anyone's alignment but my own, ever. Other than when I have a result and it's mechanically impossible for the result to be wrong.

[davesaz]

It's the same thing Uncrowned didn't like about one of my posts. Logical people tend to be much more precise than non-logical, and it bothers the non-logicals.

[davesaz]

Do you see PR's, VT's, and scum as 3 different classes of behavior?

[davesaz]

It's the same thing Uncrowned didn't like about one of my posts. Logical people tend to be much more precise than non-logical, and it bothers the non-logicals.

Which post was this?

I was wrong, it was Infinity that didn't like one of my higher precision posts. See 720 and its predecessors. I made a comment about you in the reply which is what I associated to.

[davesaz]

I mean I’ve locktowned him every time he’s been town, and when I read his games that I’m not in I read him correctly, but I’ve never been in a game with scum!SS so I’m talking specifically about how he would approach me. He knows literally all of that so I’d expect he would be trying really hard to play to how he thinks I think of him as town.

Sorry this is far enough removed that I'm not sure what you're referring back to exactly.

[davesaz]

Lol didn't expect it to be on this page. I need to reset my expectations.

[davesaz]

Do you think we're going to eliminate Pine, or that he's going to respond to pressure?

[davesaz]

Why TGP?

[davesaz]

Do you think we're going to eliminate Pine, or that he's going to respond to pressure?

I would prefer that we do elim Pine, yes. That's why I'm voting there.

I didn't ask what you prefer, I asked what you think will happen.

[davesaz]

2.75 days left and I disapprove of waiting until last minute.
If you want it to happen I think you need to be doing something more to encourage it.
If it isn't going to happen then I think you need to be doing something somewhere else.

[davesaz]

I don't suppose I should be terribly surprised by that.

[davesaz]

Dave looking a little worse for sheeping onto DGB, unless DGB is, in fact, scum

Check again, not sheeping.

[davesaz]

Menalque, stop role fishing immediately.

[davesaz]

S_S just got major scum equity btw. No way in hell that 9 people skipped a role like cop to allow it to drop to 10th, and a mechanics player should be on that.
BTW for the love of god don't counter claim. We don't need to know, and we sure as shit don't need scum to know.
I can't decide if Menalque gets scum points for fishing or if it's a reaction test, but I'm busting it right now.

[davesaz]

It's certainly not a strong move for town.

[davesaz]

solve himself

I don't need to solve myself, I know I'm town. And there isn't really any point in trying to help other solve myself because literally nobody but scum ever sees me that way.

[davesaz]

kinda like watching this game from a sort of meta/birds-eye view perspective

Yup, playstyle detected.

[davesaz]

Try reading it again.

[davesaz]

The 2nd sentence comes from the 1st one.

[davesaz]

I can hit you in the face with it if necessary. Better than 90% of the time people town read me they are scum.

[davesaz]

I'm like the guy who keeps getting knocked off horses and getting back on.

[davesaz]

[davesaz]

Antecedent. Don't they teach this in school any more?

[davesaz]

Anyhow, I'm going to pick up my carry out. Perhaps I'll be calm after dinner.

[davesaz]

Meep meep (roadrunner sound)

[davesaz]

I often say we have two ears (eyes) and one mouth (keyboard) for a reason, and there is much value in reading much and saying little.

This, plus think 7th grader at a dance, sitting off to the side and hoping nobody comes over. That's my personality (not an act, RL personality). If someone else has already said it, I'm unlikely to comment or try to say it differently. Unless there is an obvious disagreement or misunderstanding. I will jump on a soapbox when there is something to jump up and down about but if not then don't expect anything.

I know there will be people who think it's suspicious, and there isn't a damn thing I can do about it.

[davesaz]

I think Dunn is under the radar a bit too much. Not sure about infinity will need to look again when I'm back at computer. I agree menalque stuff could just be prepared dump from anticipating replacing in.

[davesaz]

I have pretty much the same opinion on eliminating Dunn as I did on lilith. If we have a direct meta or gameplay reason to scumread him then an elim there is fine. He's kinda borderline tripping my not scumhunting line, but I have low expectations there from meta in regard to things that I'd call scumhunting. (sorry Dunn but I prefer to speak truth) If no direct meta or gameplay reason, then we're better off leaving self-resolving slots to self-resolve at a strictly mechanical level.

I understand the vig point that was made earlier. If a scum is in the top 3 and took vig then we do need to worry a little about that, though there are ways to deal with it.

[davesaz]

Are you insinuating that this player list is so god tier that the scum will let me live to end game?

Why do you think you'll get NK'd over actual PRs?
Also my vote stays for a while, I hate arrogance.

[davesaz]

You know what's the worst part about it?
If she's town (questionable but I suppose possible) then she actually would be dangerous to scum later game.
But it's some pretty bad mechanical play if she's town and true claiming, to not take into consideration the more likely path for scum given the draft order.

[davesaz]

Eh, half an hour means there probably won't be any more banter which means we probably won't get any more revealing info.
Try counting the votes.

[davesaz]

I really dislike town self-hammers.
I don't think we should assume too much from a no-kill night. Too many possible scenarios for it to be deterministic.

[davesaz]

Hey, you're taking my thang.
Pedit: that's @PP

[davesaz]

Wow JV that's rough, prayers that it's not as bad as it sounds.

[davesaz]

I suggest listening to the people who have played with me before, at least a little.

My vote analyzer wasn't working at EOD yesterday -- the code to ignore votes inside quotes was also ignoring votes in some kinds of complex posts, which threw out a lot of them it should have been seeing. I was bugged about the numbers it was spitting out but the latest votes by each player were always right until Mena's 1309 wouldn't count. I actually thought it was E-1 at the point in time I suggested going back and counting, and didn't find out it was wrong until after the flip.

I think I have it fixed now. If it is working I'll be able to look at any inflection point without manually copying it all into a notepad and doing it by hand.

No, I don't have thoughts on the wagon yet.

[davesaz]

it's extremely likely there are at least 2 scum in the top half of the draft

If you have an actual objective reason to think this, it's probably too early to discuss in depth.
If you are basing this thought on the draft then you're probably buying in to a gambler's fallacy.

[davesaz]

And by objective reason I'm implying a mechanic based reason that isn't a result.

[davesaz]

People thinking it's unlikely is exactly the reason to do it. If I had rolled scum I would have hyperposted my partners into submission on this.

[davesaz]

I agree. I also don't see any way it's a fakeclaim from Lilith.

[davesaz]

Pretty sure that's elim-1.

[davesaz]

I think it's the right lim and I'm there in spirit too, just wanted to make sure we talk through anything else important first.

[davesaz]

Wait how did Dunnstral know that Mena was blocked?

Dunn noticed that Lilith voted immediately and inferred there was a guilty. He didn't know or say at that time what kind of guilty. I noticed it too but stayed quiet, the only reason we know Dunn noticed it is that he commented / voted.

[davesaz]

Also has anyone actually checked peta's tone where I linked? I feel like it's so obvious but everyone's ignoring it

I think people are ignoring it because it's obviously NAI.
Peta explicitly said "both" to a question of "for the lulz or to get a unique number".
There is no inconsistency there. Just about any number 3 digits or more is pretty much guaranteed to be unique, and there are plenty of funny numbers there. Being dismissive of your attempt to push that as a lie seems like a pretty normal attitude. I commented that I had seen pi to many digits picked as a guaranteed unique + funny number in a previous game.

FWIW I'm not settled on Peta's alignment.

[davesaz]

oh, we mean different things by "anti-spew"

I guess. I thought mine was the established definition: you're a lost cause, so shut up so you don't give anything else away.

What did you mean?

I interpret that term to be what Flavor Leaf usually tries to do -- lay down false associations to town in an attempt to take some with you.

[davesaz]

What motivation does Lilith have to lie there?

If Mena flips green do we not just end up suspecting her?

As I'm typing this I realize it's not that simple but it's a risky play nonetheless

Idk

I'm basically i dont townread lilith
I dont scumread mena
Her result matches up on neither side (wrt the credibility of the persok giving it, and scumminess of the person being guiltied)
I cant explain the motivation but like it'a not completely adding up for me

Let's not forget that Pine was active on site but not playing this game. Menalque is the type of player who can attempt to spew a lurkscum slot town with posting that we can't verify until many flips have happened. What I don't know is if lilith knows that or not.

[davesaz]

actually skitter seems to not be considering at all that you could have been the NK target

To be fair here I would never consider that either.

[davesaz]

so scum... intentionally nuke their chances of having good PRs... allowing them to be caught or eliminated by town having a BOUNTY of PRs... for some WIFOM... that evaporates in usefulness the second one of them gets caught/tracked/whatever, or they just get PoE'd? that's what you're saying you think scum did in the draft phase?

If they're a good talker and someone who gets townread for saying nothing, absolutely possible they'd double numbers and expect to not get caught. Someone whose legend makes them invulnerable to a PoE and unlikely to be targeted for an investigation because they yammer on about how scum must have gone for PRs. What better way to make TPRs waste their time than by yelling that all scum are singletons?

[davesaz]

To be fair here I would never consider that either.

Why not?

I'm definitely considering it. Menalque is a strong player, and not many people expressed a scumread of him before today.

Because I expect kills to aim for PRs. <If you doubt this just remember that I'm totally a mechanics based player>

[davesaz]

Maybe i'm like horrifically tunneled but i'm still having a hard time wrapping my head around town!lilith

Does anybody townread lilith on play ???

If you're asking about reading her on her posting, no I'm not reading her at all. Very null on posting.

[davesaz]

Because I expect kills to aim for PRs. <If you doubt this just remember that I'm totally a mechanics based player>

I'm a mechanics based player too, but that doesn't prevent me from acknowledging that not everyone thinks as mechanically as I do. Just because you wouldn't kill Menalque doesn't mean nobody would.

The way I play often colors how I view others. I once had RC jump all over me for not bodyguarding him, and especially because I said I valued my town day play in that game over sacrificing myself to stop a kill on him. No, I don't automatically assume a so-called dangerous player will be the NK.

[davesaz]

The point is not “automatically assume a dangerous player will be the NK”


The point is “why does it seem unreasonable to you that /other players here/ might consider me a significant enough threat to get rid of me at night, even if you would not do so because you think that kill would be best used on PR hunting?”

That's a distinction between possible and likely.
I haven't said it isn't possible, nor that it's unreasonable for others to think it. Or at least I don't think I've said that. I've had 3 meetings and a mandatory cyber security class today so I might have used shorthand that implies it?
There are at least 3 other ways a no-kill could happen. Don't forget I passed on a hammer to ensure they are discussed...

[davesaz]

Oh, I thought gobble had replaced in.

[davesaz]

Following up on 1982. I don't think that really answered the question...
I often have a bias toward expecting people to think the way I do. So to be more direct about it, I would be skeptical of people who accept the idea of a kill outside the PRs, at least initially.

[davesaz]

When we compare a slot's post count to the mod's, remember to divide by 2.

[davesaz]

I think TGP may have scumtold a couple times in the last 2-3 pages of my catchup. It involves the subtle difference between "x is something I'd do as town" and "y is something I'd do instead of x as scum" where y is the thing that wasn't done.

[davesaz]

Maybe I'm seeing if S_S will crack first.

[davesaz]

Unfortunately the people I want to talk to about the thing I found seem to no longer be here.

[davesaz]

I don't really care about your approval or thoughts on what I want to do

Pedit: you'll do

[davesaz]

The pedit was for skitter in case that wasn't clear, in the hurry to hit submit.

[davesaz]

2143 -- is thinking that kind of thing comes from scum reasonable?

[davesaz]

My dear Best Bird,

Deadline: 6 days, 22 hours, 16 minutes

I'd rather not get to E-1 again right away when we have plenty of time to catch the whole scumteam.
<-- never assume he's not thinking...

[davesaz]

no

Don't think I was soliciting input from the subject of the investigation...

[davesaz]

I mean - I wasn't seeking your approval there? I find lack of taking a stance to be scummy.

Apparently it wasn't obvious that I was throwing your words back at you. I don't care if you think discussion before possibly triggering a premature end to the day is scummy.

[davesaz]

dgb was essentially a guaranteed lim, and if i were scum i would just hard defend her instead of being on that lim

This thing, which is essentially saying:

town would be on this DGB lim, scum would hard defend her but that's not what I (TGP) did
which is the pattern "town would do x where scum would do y but I did x" and in a town mindset you don't put it that way.

Pretty sure there is at least one other post where the same type of logic is used.

[davesaz]

Sitting on a vanity vote near deadline is pretty productive.

[davesaz]

tgp

Make you case instead of just whispering someone's name.

[davesaz]

shading a slot

VOTE: Best Bird
The people who accuse me of shading universally end up being scum.

[davesaz]

Wow this pagetop thing works so much better when you aren't even paying attention to it.

[davesaz]

Near deadline? How delusional are you?

Yesterday, remember the thing I just quoted where I suggested you put your Pine vote to work and you told me to buzz off?

[davesaz]

You’re the one voting an almost certain town pr. Doesn’t go with your post.

[davesaz]

Of course your position has nothing at all to do with your own draft number.

[davesaz]

i'm town because my interactions and progressions don't make sense for scum
like. imo the biggest difference between town and scum is the fact that town is completely in the dark whereas scum knows the alignment of every player in the game
and my posting whatever you think of my reads and my reasoning make a lot more sense from someone who's uninformed than someone who knows the alignment of every player in the game

This is related somewhat to the thing I pointed out before.
TGP is aware of their posting and trying to push the narrative that it makes more sense as uninformed than informed.
It makes me think that the basically clueless looking style is an act.

[davesaz]

davesaz is sidelining all of this hard

I had a hammer all typed up but there are 5 days so I decided to wait to see if you'd bother posting anything.

[davesaz]

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox

[davesaz]

2171 2259 are me scumreading TGP. Thought that was clear.

[davesaz]

Deadline: 4 days, 1 hour, 19 minutes

Massive difference between unwilling to vote and not in a hurry.

[davesaz]

I had this all typed up

Spoiler: post

By play:
davesaz, skitter30, Menalque
Uncrowned, petapan, Infinity
lilith, Something_Smart, JacksonVirgo
Best Bird
Hoopla, Dunnstral, TGP

VOTE: TheGoldenParadox

But 2265 came up in pre-edit and I decided to see what happened first.

[davesaz]

What information are we keeping from scum if they dont claim it

More importantly, why are we hammering town instead of the guy who tried to make the kill?

Who did you scumread at end of day 1?

[davesaz]

What information are we keeping from scum if they dont claim it

More importantly, why are we hammering town instead of the guy who tried to make the kill?

Who did you scumread at end of day 1?

[davesaz]

I'm in day 3/3 of supporting a customer education event. It's rather hard to concentrate while people are talking in my headset.
I think S_S not voting might be NAI, but having basically no scumreads could be AI. Have I missed scumreads? Have there been some that I just don't remember? This has to be a todo item for after the classes are over.
I think lilith's choices aren't really scum indicative but that's pending a review of her trajectory on infinty. After the event.
NK may indicate scum are more concerned about near-universal townreads than they are about PR actions. That's information for my logic solve but it's quite a long way from being sufficient.

Pedit: damn, that's almost half a page while I've been writing this.

[davesaz]

I'm torn between following two basic principles.

One basic principle is that you don't pressure suspected TPRs because they have greater utility on average than non-PRs. Especially in a game like this, you give them room to operate.

The other basic principle works like "duck typing" in programming. If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, then it's a duck. Someone who isn't scumhunting, especially those making an effort to be present but not scumhunt, are typically scum. My gold standard for this is people either not expressing scumreads, or saying things about alignment opinions but never giving a real reason.

By the TPR principle I'm explicitly against pressuring the top 5-6 draft picks early in the game,

regardless of behavior

. They can be the last elims because the ones left standing are the ones most likely to be scum. If we have a doc we may get lucky and have more no-kill nights, extending the game to the point where a pure mechanical solve is possible. If we have 1-shots that are more useful the smaller the player list gets, we give them room and don't out them so that scum don't know who the real danger is.

By the not scumhunting principle, I'm being pinged by Dunnstral, Something_Smart, and Best Bird. 2/3 of those are especially annoying because people explicitly townread them for things that I would consider to be NAI at best and explicitly scumtells in most players. Not_Mafia will take his slot from a "weird but could be town" read straight to this category. The conflict between this principle and the TPR principle is obviously largest in Dunnstral.

I tend to SR people who don't acknowledge the TPR principle. Hoopla is a prime candidate for this award. I really don't give a shit what the numbers say about scum doubling or not doubling. The TPR principle overrides that. If you don't have an explicit reason to scumread a presumed TPR, you don't yeet them, period. One thing gives me pause here, and that's the "protect via suspecting" strategy. Scum will choose not to NK people that they think are easy miselims. I have to acknowledge that some players purposely "suspect" the players they have identified as likely TPRs so that scum won't kill them as universal town reads.

What this all boils down to is thinking for today (and possibly tomorrow) that we should eliminate either the soft guilty from N1 to rule it out, or an explicitly scummy or not scumhunting player from the later part of the draft. The only scenario that can actually burn us with this strategy is all 3 scum in the early part because they all picked low unique numbers and town got extremely unlucky to not double any of the scum low numbers. I'm not unwilling to eliminate Dunnstral because I can see him playing this way as scum, but I'm concerned about it being too early from a pure mechanical point of view.

[davesaz]

Talking about it at all helps scum. Nice job.

[davesaz]

If town chose commuter that's an even stranger pick than the ones that have already been revealed. I guess someone who flat out expects to be N1'd could do that, otherwise how do you know when to activate other than last night? Maybe it's just me thinking it's a useless role...

pedit: I'm down for that.
VOTE: Hoopla

[davesaz]

I tend to SR people who don't acknowledge the TPR principle. Hoopla is a prime candidate for this award.

You literally just saw her do this as town though, so whether you agree or disagree with it, it shouldn't have a bearing on her alignment.

If I did, it didn't get upgraded to long-term memory. There is an element of situation as well.

[davesaz]

I also don't get these hoopla votes. I thought her push on skitter was the towniest thing she's done all game.

She has hammered continuously on the idea that scum are in the early draft, and

only

in the early draft, as far as I can remember.

[davesaz]

Talking about it at all helps scum. Nice job.

If you think scum haven’t already had/aren’t already having this conversation then you’re delusional

Please answer the question

What role could dunn have that would be so strong that it makes sense to just let him be indefinitely despite his play

He has directly crumbed at least one of the roles you mentioned.

[davesaz]

To be clear: skitter scummy, but not to the point where I want her elimmed today

To be clear, Dunn is scummy but not to the point I want him elimmed today.

[davesaz]

Since we have a virtual intent here, I'll just prepare to issue a told you so when the claim comes. If I'm wrong then I'll regroup.

[davesaz]

I guess those weren't hints of what I thought they were.
I don't get why town picks JK when 2/3 of doc/cop/rb will be available at that position. Roles that give unambiguous results are superior to roles that leave questions open.
This same observation goes with Lilith btw.

[davesaz]

Hoopla is onto something

Lilith is alive because scum doesn't have control of the doctor

I found it hard to believe that this would be a scum claim, and it's stated in very definite terms. Much more definite than I would normally use. If it isn't a scum claim but it's still definite...

[davesaz]

dunn --> dave, Best Bird --> NM --> peta, hoopla --> infinity, lili --> S_S, skitter

what?

[davesaz]

I think it's the right lim and I'm there in spirit too, just wanted to make sure we talk through anything else important first.

There are at least 3 other ways a no-kill could happen. Don't forget I passed on a hammer to ensure they are discussed...

Reminder @Menalque.

[davesaz]

I'm struggling to find a reason for town!Dunn to play this way and coming up blank.

[davesaz]

If the person arguing against a massclaim is the soft guilty...

[davesaz]

I'd say it's no longer "early game" so I'm no longer feeling constrained from delving into pick analysis.
This is from my POV knowing I'm town.

2, 4/(5 ruled out by lilith), 9/23/1M
2, 4, 5 (ruled out by lilith)
2, 4, 4
4, 5, 9/23/1M
4, 4, 5/9/23/1M
4, 4, 4
4, any 2 of 9/23/1M
5, any 2 of 9/23/1M
9, 23, 1M

Every valid combination other than {S_S, Infinity, Petapan} requires lilith, Menalque, or a 4.
By far the largest set of combinations requires at least one scum to be a 4.

In terms of roles we may have a tragic comedy here of every single town role being useless or close to it. And I'm down to zero people I can trust in terms of TRs.

[davesaz]

And I'm down to zero people I can trust in terms of TRs.

seems to be a theme today

you had a solid TR on me yesterday/day before that, what happened to that?

I thought Dunn was hinting there was a different reason for the no-kill than you being JK'd.
Consider it a compliment that I think you're totally capable of towning it up as scum.
And I have a hard time understanding lilith's play if she's scum, without that other reason for the no-kill.

[davesaz]

Not cop. I assumed the first town player would take it and the chances of 3 scum before me was too small to even consider. As a result, the chance we have scum holding that role pair with RB is now pretty high.

Have we heard from Best Bird?

Dunnstral would have been neighborized before N_M repped in, right? The better question to ask about the neighborizer shot is, who as scum would think they can convince Dunn they are town in a hood?

[davesaz]

also Dave, also peta

Getting a new refrigerator delivered.

Dave could be a scum reaction

My non reaction from not being here could be what?

[davesaz]

Town will lose now. I wanted to know if there was a doc or not first.
1-shot watcher.
Meet your next NK.

[davesaz]

Lilith if you're town

do not JK me

. Our only hope is scum kill someone else AND I guess who it is and watch them.

[davesaz]

If Lilith is town, I'm absolutely floored that both of the top 2 picks went for a scum (IMO) role. Take a role with unambiguous results over one that leaves more questions than answers. Always!

[davesaz]

Also, Dave, why did you out exactly?

Because it looks like a massclaim is in progress and people who claim stall tend to get elim'd.
Any other stupid questions?

[davesaz]

VOTE: Menalque
Keep mentioning me?

[davesaz]

Let's just turbo elim the guilty and get it over with.

[davesaz]

I'm honestly just fed up with this game. You or me, now!

[davesaz]

@ALL -- PICK ONE OF US AND GET IT OVER WITH. QUIT FUCKING AROUND.

[davesaz]

And now you've caught up to why I'm so upset about the table we gave ourselves.
The only ways lilith and Mena can both be town is if scum deliberately no-killed (unlikely) or they were so afraid of Mena replacing in that they tried to NK there instead of a PR (also unlikely).
Lilith can be scum pretty much only if scum no-killed AND they tried to frame Mena. Even more unlikely.
If we had just listened to the guilty we'd be in a much better place.

[davesaz]

The only player coming close to trying in this game is me.

Eliminate the guilty already. Enough screwing around.

[davesaz]

Here's an example of how to get better.
VOTE: Menalque

[davesaz]

We've taken what should be a role madness game, chosen the worst set of roles imaginable, and ignored the one result we do have.
Nice going.

[davesaz]

@dave, N_M, lilith, peta

if menalque is scum, who are his partners?

One day at a time. If we miss it's getting too close to not mattering, so I'll take the one in the hand over the one in the bush.

[davesaz]

And like - dave's posting today was just bad

My posting today is the absolute best posting ever from town.
My town posting is always the best ever.

[davesaz]

sure working with mena and hoopla is our best bet

For losing.

[davesaz]

on another note, i'm annoyed peta/dave won't entertain me conversationally about a more indepth solve, but i guess we just need a scumflip to get motivation going again.

I've been physically not here for a lot of the last 48 hours.

I don't town read anyone RN but that's a different problem stemming from the awful shape we're in.

[davesaz]

Why is redirector being discussed at all?

[davesaz]

Why is redirector being discussed at all?

have you not been reading? there's mechanically confirmed to be a redirector (or a scum cop but w/e), since tgp tried to take cop and didn't get it, and it's in one of me/smart/infinity/menalque. nice little bit of mechanical information for you, the most we're likely to get.

Skimming the last couple days. I didn't have a note of tgp pick. On mobile and it's hard to post much that way for me. This info suggests a solution that I'm pretty confident in. I'll write more when I can use more than one finger.

[davesaz]

I think those are fairly reasonable actions from a mechanics point of view.

Here are more complete notes on the picks. It makes sense to me, hopefully it makes sense to you.

lilith2013 2 claim JK (Menalque, Infinity, Not_Mafia)
Dunnstral 3 VT tried to get JK
skitter30 6 UB(Inherited PGO)
davesaz 8 watcher
Something_Smart 9 VT, claims went for rolecop
Uncrowned 14 town vengeful / n3 vig
Infinity 324 23, VT, claims went for n3 vig
petapan 1000000 VT, tried to get watcher
DrippingGoofball 5 town PGO / 1 shot vig (1st elim -> backup)
Pine->mena 5 VT, claims went for JK
JacksonVirgo->not_mafia 4 neighborizer, no counter
TheGoldenParadox 4 VT tried to get cop
PenguinPower 4 VT, tried to get FV
Hoopla 4 tried to get cop

Working assumption is that the no-kill N1 was due to lilith JKing Mena. I think it is most likely that Mena was blocked attempting the kill.
1. We know that town attempted to get cop late in the list and didn't.
2. If there were a town cop earlier in the list, it would be 100% better to have claimed along with any results. Therefore mafia got the role pair.
3. It appears from the information that we have, that NOBODY tried to get doctor / roleblocker -- or mafia ALSO has that role. They are informed either way.
4. Given mafia has the cop role pair, and knows there is no doctor (or they have the roleblocker), the next highest priority for a NK is another investigative (watcher / tracker). Choosing to kill the 10th player in the list when they can get either a PR or information earlier in the list makes it

very unlikely

that Mena was the kill target.
5. Someone will argue, "but good player" -- I don't care about that. In a (near) role madness game, you always follow the mechanics first!

I very much want to SR Something_Smart for not going full bore on the above logic. Hoopla too, to a somewhat lesser extent only because I don't know who she is really having only been in a couple games with her. I don't know the source of the meme and have never bothered to ask to be filled in on the back story.

[davesaz]

Actually, I might have lost track of what Hoopla thinks, so make that "suspicious IF she isn't all over this logic". I'm very certain that S_S hasn't jumped all over it.

[davesaz]

In addition to #4, mafia also knew that both of the vig roles were in town hands, which makes it even less likely they'd go for #10 in the draft on n1.

[davesaz]

VOTE: Menalque
copy / paste plz

[davesaz]

the way dave has thrown suspicion s_s's way a few times makes me wonder if that

could

be a thing

Please clarify -- you mean if SS could be scum? I'm unsure how to treat "thrown suspicion" here.

[davesaz]

I doubt I even need to say what my preferred order is.
I view this as a 99% vs a 33% and it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out where the best odds are.

[davesaz]

what do you think about my logic in 3665?

I quite literally don't care about it.
Talking ourselves out of a guilty is the fast track to losing.
I'm absolutely not voting anyone else.

[davesaz]

Dave is either scum or incredibly lazy and incompetent town

At the moment I'm the only competent one here.
You eliminate the guilty.
Always.
WTF is wrong with people?

[davesaz]

Mena was blocked on a no-kill night 1.

[davesaz]

Like, I'll be unhappy and disappointed if I'm wrong, but you play the hand you're dealt.
When I play hold-em, I fold about 10 times as many hands as I all in.
This is an all in hand. I'd never fold it in a million years. Win or lose it's the only real play here.

[davesaz]

Maybe 20 times or more as many. I don't keep track.

[davesaz]

That would have been epic if true, too bad.
I guessed wrong on who the kill would be.

[davesaz]

Who did you target?

I expected Smoke & Mirrors to be the NK.
I am aware that this is not answering your question.

[davesaz]

Or myself, but scum probably figure it will be incredibly easy to mislim me for the win.

[davesaz]

I tend to think that 1-shots should not reveal whether the shot is used or not.

[davesaz]

Should scum shoot me, or keep me alive as a miselim? I don't want to make that question any easier for them to answer.

[davesaz]

If we have 1-shots that are

more useful the smaller the player list gets

, we give them room and don't out them so that scum don't know who the real danger is.

Crumb, and philosophy. Guess what, I play hold-em. Also a crumb. Have not used, and would have wasted it twice so far if I had tried to.

[davesaz]

S_S acted wrong on mechanics and has carefully avoided having any scumreads. I'm interpreting that as diffuse distancing.
I'm not sure on Infinity -- I kinda feel befriended there which in this game is somewhat suspect.

[davesaz]

When were you planning to use it then?

When I'm sure I can guess who the NK is, of course.
Like I said, I already guessed wrong twice (which would have wasted it) and a wasted shot is even more worthless than an unused one.
It's mathematically correct and that's all I care about.

[davesaz]

My choice will probably be the opposite of Best Bird's choice.

[davesaz]

Re 4197 any thought of a team including me is a loss for town.

[davesaz]

I think it's Something_Smart, Infinity, ?. The ? can be any low number, either 2 or 4 fits that pattern. If I refrain from paranoia (a struggle at the moment), then Hoopla and Smoke & Mirrors should be excluded from this. I prefer Best Bird over N_M for this team but it's a close call.

I also think it's still possible that the team is Hoopla, Best Bird, Not_Mafia. That's possible because Hoopla would argue so strongly against duplication, and that argument would be NAI so it's not risky at all to make. The argument is strong enough that if we randomly flipped one of them it's possible that town would sheep onto the argument and the remaining dups would sail through to an easy win. As we can see from this game, it's entirely possible that town will shoot themselves in the foot PR-wise and thus gambling scum could skip the PRs on purpose and let the swing carry them.

[davesaz]

Pick wise, other combinations with two of the 4's are possible but if they're going to dup why not go all the way? Not going to go through the trouble of enumerating here.

Low,low,high or low,low,med yields 2/4/9 and 2/4/23 but I seriously doubt that informed scum would fake claim a JK, nor that a scum JK would block a likely VT (plus no kill). This half of the Mena logic still stands. Those combinations still result in S_S or Infinity being in the solve.

[davesaz]

I think it's Something_Smart, Infinity, ?.

What do you think about hoopla's reasoning that if either me or s_s flips scum-not-redirector, the other is confirmed scum?

Did you make a mistake with this question?

[davesaz]

I think it's Something_Smart, Infinity, ?.

What do you think about hoopla's reasoning that if either me or s_s flips scum-not-redirector, the other is confirmed scum?

Did you make a mistake with this question?

You read it right, obviously from my pov neither of us will flip scum-not-redirector barring some total bullshit.

I could see you having a problem with S_S scum flip means you'll flip scum, but how does that relate to you not thinking S_S will flip scum? Especially when you have S_S in the solve in a later post?

[davesaz]

Dunn didn’t say who the neighborizer was.

Why do you seem to keep missing the point of nearly all of my posts today? My point obviously is how did he know that that role was in the game?

He was neighborized. Has that not been mentioned?

[davesaz]

I think it's obvious at least one of them is scum, and have thought S_S might be scum the whole game.
I've had no confidence at all in anything but stuff that ended up being wrong. Might as well see if this is any better.
VOTE: Something_Smart

[davesaz]

Should be obv I would change my mind on you scum, after that 1v1. I think it's either 2/4/9 or 4/4/9 for a pattern.

[davesaz]

It would be an exaggeration to say there are more holes than correct points in that.
Only a slight exaggeration.

[davesaz]

I can't rule out correct thought and badly incorrect typing.
Would you like to try again?

[davesaz]

if we elim scum!S&M, there's no JK shenangians tonight. and given we would be down to one scum, it would prevent N_M from neighbourising

and

killing in the same night as scum don't have informed.

Scum don't have multitasking.

so, if N_M is scum, he can't kill at night, which gives us an extra mis-elim. if N_M is town, and a kill happens, it confirms N_M as town as long as he neighbourises someone. this prevents us from burning a mis-elim on him if he's town.

It's possible to have a no-kill and no-neighborize, if the 3rd scum is RB. That slot was not claimed to have been picked by anyone, and any of the "last in a chain" claims could be a fakeclaim to hide the RB.

this all hinges on S&M being scum. if they are, i think there's no way we don't brute force a win, as we get to test N_M

and

another slot in case we're wrong.

whereas, if we go the no-elim route we only get to test one slot other than S&M.

S&M being scum requires scum to have chosen to no-kill AND to block N_M instead. I don't see why you'd argue this is more likely than town!S&M saving town!N_M or blocking scum!N_M, especially after it's already happened once. Because S&M scum means that Mena was a no-kill to frame. S&M can't both be town who saved Mena and scum who blocked N_M.

I don't understand what you mean by "test". Roll the dice on an elim and hope we're not wrong? You're assuming town just wins the 3p that results, which is absolutely not a brute force win.