In post 4280, Infinity 324 wrote:Is your argument not that lack of engagement is a towntell for you?
Yes but you were previously saying that I was saying that I’m not also engaged as town when what I clearly said that my activity is meta wise, inconsistent as town. So if you’re actually finally getting it then why do you keep ignoring it.
I never denied that lack of engagement is generally a towntell for you. But again:
-RL stuff is NAI
-Lurking in this gamestate specifically can benefit scum
s_s seems like the type of player who would tend towards inaction. Yes caution wasn’t necessary, but neither was action, and maybe they thought the only way they could lose would be to out themselves with scummy votes.
I play a lot of magic the gathering, and one thing that’s important in that game is to play to your outs. Meaning, if you have a very low chance to win a game, you ignore the worst-case scenarios since you’re never going to win those anyway and play to win the best-case scenario. In this case, it’s very possible that we just can’t win if dave is town, since I’ll never be able to convince him to vote you. Also, hoopla is the closest thing to a consensus townread we have. Since town has to vote together, I want to be voting with hoopla today. I may think the redirector gambit is a possibility, but I don’t think I’ll be able to convince hoopla to vote you, n_m, or bird today, so it’s better to vote s_s, who I know is scum if the gambit didn’t happen. I explained my logic for why the redirector gambit is a reasonable possibility in my head—it’s one of the only things that explains the peta kill, which would force a false 1v1 in that case. n_m not neighborizing someone also looks suspicious, especially since no they neighborized the n3 kill on n3.
I think the chance we win the game if dave is town is incredibly low, and if I’m still alive on d6/7 I will likely end up having to vote him for that reason anyway.
Yes that is the redirector gambit idea. I don’t want to elim bird, but if I was convinced the gambit happened, he would be a possible elim. It’s not impossible for n_m to be redirector and this has been explained multiple times.
Truth is, I really don’t want to elim someone who reads town every time they post to me, but logically s_s is just scum here.
Are we playing the game of “list every player infinity mentions in his posts”? There’s zero possible way you could interpret that as me shading hoopla.
Never said it was a likely possibility at all, just that it could theoretically happen. I’ve been pretty clear throughout the day that bird is the player I suspect for that much more.
Honestly I don’t believe that pooky ever convinced you to vote mena. Mena was obvtown as hell on play and no one ever denied that. You just wanted an excuse to save s_s.
Fypov obviously the no kill happened because of the lilith JK. But you ignored the possibility that mena was targeted by a night kill.
In post 3934, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:It probably doesn’t change anything though because unless there’s literally a hard guilty, I base my votes mainly on play.
This doesn't match up with your actions. I asked you multiple times to look at a key spot where mena was obvtowning but you either didn't do that or you ignored the fact that mena was obvtown by play. It wasn't a hard guilty. Hoopla gave some good reasons in 3665 for why mena could've been NKed.
In post 4319, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:Why are you trying so hard to push me over fypov a slot that has the most odds of being redirector other than you?
I also base my reads on play, and s_s has played pretty towny imo. That doesn't change now that I know he's scum (I'm sure scum would've quickhammered by now).
In post 4319, Smoke and Mirrors wrote:
And if you’re so convinced it has to be SS, then wtf is up with all of this scum neighbourizer thing you keep pushing?
In post 4301, Infinity 324 wrote:hoopla is the closest thing to a consensus townread we have. Since town has to vote together, I want to be voting with hoopla today. I may think the redirector gambit is a possibility, but I don’t think I’ll be able to convince hoopla to vote you, n_m, or bird today, so it’s better to vote s_s, who I know is scum if the gambit didn’t happen.
In post 482, lilith2013 wrote:okay so I have a super crazy wild theory that SS and skitter are scum together and the reason that skitter's scumreading me so early is because they know I can read SS really well
Feels a bit more invested/involved than i think scum!him would be
I am really sad to say that i think you rolled scum this game
I don't have any townpings from SS from so far, which... based on my read meter for him, means he's probably scum.
In post 490, lilith2013 wrote:@SS if you're town, I'm happy to be proven wrong, but like, you calling out skitter on her response to JV's townread on her felt over the top and her reaction to me talking about you also felt partnery to me.
In post 490, lilith2013 wrote:@SS if you're town, I'm happy to be proven wrong, but like, you calling out skitter on her response to JV's townread on her felt over the top
Hmm? His response to that was along the lines of "This is interesting, I wonder what to think. Slightly scummy."
The fact that he called it out at all feels like not-SS to me. It also reminded me of this post:
Honestly, I think the number of people who immediately popped in to express their dislike for the wagon is much more notable.
in which he avoids interacting with the wagon, similarly to how he avoided commenting on the JV wagon here.
S_S said this is a general feature of his playstyle though (in regards to being hesitant with votes), has he done this as town as well?
In a vacuum I would say an unwillingness to get involved in wagons/voting is scummy but if it's a consistency across his play than I don't know how much I can take from it.
as I said earlier today, him not voting is NAI. unfortunately I don’t think I can articulate this any better :/ my method of reading SS is like, 95% gut. this doesn’t feel like town!SS to me. I can attempt to say which posts made me think that and why but most of the time it’s not going to make sense to anyone else.
This is the last time (!) lilith mentions s_s in a substantial way in her ISO. Notably, when she gives a list of scumreads later:
In post 2837, lilith2013 wrote:okay I’m probably not going to have enough brain energy for efforting before the day ends. tldr on scumreads:
infinity - I don’t think he really interacted with either elimination wagon, and was townreading TGP but as far as I can tell didn’t really try to divert that wagon away; if mena was the N1 kill, then I think infinity is one of the players with the most to gain from mena dying. He’s also spent a majority of the game harping on hoopla without it going anywhere, conveniently. I think it’s possible they’re bussing given the heat hoopla was receiving on D1 for the 4s thing, which is also the thing I think infinity has been most vocal about, which leads me to hoopla. the townreading-tgp-but-not-really-trying-to-stop-wagon is mostly what I was thinking about when I jked him, I think?
hoopla - I feel like the majority of her content has been mech-based which isn’t scummy necessarily, but it’s easy to hide behind so I don’t think it’s super town-indicative. potential for bussing with infinity - made some weird vague statements about him D1 without much follow-up. I don’t really have a strong read but it makes less un-sense to me than other people
jv - on D1 jumping on everyone for anything that could be remotely shaded, and their read on peta never evolved past “peta lied about draft picks.” From what I remember, town!NM usually shows at least some sign of solving and hasn’t shown that here. again not a super strong read but I don’t really know what else makes sense.
I don’t really think dunn is scum based on his claim - I think he picked what he said he picked. When I softed, it felt like he had a very similar reaction to you (mena) when you realized you had picked the JK/tracker slot and didn’t get it. Is your issue that he came to the same conclusion that you did but at a time when he shouldn’t have had enough information to do so? Or that he seemed to accept you as the killer too quickly when he should have known it wasn’t an unequivocal guilty? I was/am treating his reaction to my soft as town because it seemed natural for town!dunn to accept my soft right away.
s_s isn't in there, despite her apparently struggling to find scumreads. And she's supposed to be good at reading s_s.
In post 4361, davesaz wrote:Should be obv I would change my mind on you scum, after that 1v1. I think it's either 2/4/9 or 4/4/9 for a pattern.
Makes sense I guess. I don’t think bird or hoopla busses s_s in the way they did d4 or d5, so that’s why I’m at S&M + n_m right now, with an outside chance of you being scum.
In post 4366, Infinity 324 wrote:Yeah S&M and n_m both being town seems absurd, so it must have been a no kill.
if we no-elim today, this is probably our last phase to talk together since one of us probably dies tonight. so lets try and solve the game today while we can run ideas by each other.
i've had a busy weekend and haven't really been thinking about this game much since we guessed right on the 50/50. so i'd like to at least use up a couple days reading through things.
we had potentially 3 people in redirector-POE, but mafia chose to remove Peta from that POE making it a SS-Infinity 1v1.
except the 1v1 didnt happen, it felt like a stalled game state with some wild ass theories getting thrown around.
then right before the deadline the game state cracks and a flood of votes come in on SS and he flips red.
That's not a typical 7p lylo 1v1 gladiate resolution.
Yeah I was thinking about this a bit.
I thought for a sec it was because s_s was town and we were being setup, and scum was waiting for one of us to vote the other.
But what I really think happened was that scum thought s_s could win a 1v1 against me. They waited for someone to vote me, while positioning themselves to put votes on me first if necessary. Since dave didn’t out who he was leaning towards, they thought s_s could still win up until he got elimmed.
I haven’t 100% made up my mind but I think that makes the most sense.
I also think dave makes less sense to be scum from a mechanical POV than n_m or S&M—s_s presumably knew that hoopla would TR the neighborizer claim based on the stats, and it’s a low-risk option to go for low in the draft. The no kill makes some sense (especially when compared to a kill on mena) to get lilith out of pressure, and gives s_s an excuse to TR lilith.
In post 4407, Infinity 324 wrote:Everyone thinks you’re scum, but that includes n_m who wants to elim dave instead even though you being town makes no sense from their perspective
what?
i protected NM from NK or the scum no-killed
why would me being town not make sense from their POV?
If both of you are town, since both of you were leaning towards voting me yesterday, scum can just wait for one of you to vote me and quickhammer.
I’m maybe willing to accept that scum bussed rather than take the risk of one of you changing your mind, but both being town seems absurd.
n_m didn’t actually say they were leaning towards voting for me but they did said that me pushing the redirector angle was gross, implying that I was scummy.
First of all, scum can’t quickhammer. Second of all, the second no kill would put us on evens which seems fine for scum to do. It’s also possible they forgot they didn’t have multitasking so n_m can’t neighborize and kill on the same night, or they’re ok with losing if S&M gets limmed today and were trying to go after you instead. I’m not sure why you think hoopla tried to bus s_s multiple times in a row, or why S&M spent all of d5 trying to justify a vote on me after they called me obvtown on d4.
In post 4444, davesaz wrote:I will never expect anything but correct play. Smoke & Mirrors are town. Mafia wouldn't no-kill twice.
If people think like this, then it is correct play though? Not to mention lilith was under a lot of heat d1 and s_s would be expected to read her correctly.
