Guns & Roses V [Game Over]

[Bell]

Also, holy shit on maxwell.
I totally misread him.

[Bell]

What am I hurrying for?

[Bell]

Ngl, when Gamma hammered I thought he was trying to end the game early with a bunch of mafia shots.

[Bell]

This result makes me feel a lot better tho.

[Bell]

Oh, so Gun really was Mafia.
So many rep outs.
Really wish Fb didn't self-vote themselves.

[Bell]

No, they weren't.

[Bell]

Not convinced, 1 or more of those deaths weren’t 100% scum-directed

Until someone says otherwise, they are.

Still thinking this, btw?

Pretty much yeah. Isn't it all but confirmed now? If you add them all up the town guns and scum guns about line up with this hypothesis.

[Bell]

I think I'm clear looking at earlier posts on gun.
Tanner look is iffy, but otherwise, I think I'm clean.

Anyone beg to differ? I only ask because I want to find the last one.

Dunstral acted oddly around Gun.
DGB slapped them with a town read for their monster post. But I actually don't hold strong feelings on that.

[Bell]

Akarin has hard defended Dunstral, I'm not sure how I feel about it, but there are town explanations, scum explanations and plenty of buddying explanations for wy Akarin would defend Dunstral here.
They also, both can't be scum right?
There's one scum left? Yep, just checked.

I find it more likely tha Akarin just defended Dunstral due to history.

[Bell]

Fair enough.

[Bell]

Even I don't think that my vote was going to move the needle on that one.

It was a good vote, but I pushed far too late for it to matter.

[Bell]

Well, it was genuine. Good job noticing if you're town that it was.
It's late, I'm tired, I'll get back to this tomorrow.
Maybe Maxwell and Gun gave something away in their giant reads list.
I am aware Maxwell heaped praises on me btw.

[Bell]

I'm dumb. Why is everyone happy to get Dunnstral now?

[Bell]

lol

[Bell]

I'm rose.

[Bell]

It just occurred to me tha Gamma is 100% town for their push at tanner.

Or was that someone else?

[Bell]

No, Maxwell had me as a hard town read.

[Bell]

V/LA two days.
Rather, limited access. Driving brother to San Francisco.

[Bell]

Been skimming on the back of early game and there are mysteries to solve thatbcN be resolved.
For example, turns out, uncrowned had good reads and that ++ adds to scum kill. There is enough information to know whether the final scum is among the roses or the guns.

[Bell]

In Other words unvote dunstral while we dig a little more.

Dunstral and gun cross voted. With gun following rose wary game.
There’s also gun’s interaction with me which is negative association if anyone needs more help with that.

Also, I should say this now, good shot ico. *praise*

[Bell]

Which players have claimed Rose?

[Bell]

V/LA two days.
Rather, limited access. Driving brother to San Francisco.

I want to hang, but covid. Otherwise, I would insist on it. New faces are OP.

Thanks.
He’s got a year and 7 months to go. So, maybe next time.

[Bell]

So akarin is 100% town as are you. Unless somebody gambited.
Sweet.

[Bell]

Tanner/Titus is somewhat unlikely imo.

@dunstrall, why do you think dgb is town?

[Bell]

I think scum was a N1 gun I suppose.
Yes, yes, I know, i’m Just putting the pieces together at my own pace.

[Bell]

Ayyyy Johnny wagon

i think this is pretty much sealing my johnny scumread. it's desperately trying to give off a nonchalant "townie" vibe while contributing absolutely nothing. what do you think of the wagon on you? what's your read on me?

room temperature take: VOTE: johnnyfarrar

< insert disagreement about massclaiming today here >

why do you not want massclaim today?

i'm not for or against it, just wanna hear the thoughts process here

hiraki nicely put it in 666. other than that, there's a thought that there being only 2 kills last night is... suspiciously low. coupled with the loudest opponent of claiming being dead, i cannot help feeling paranoia that scum has packed guns for later nights, and massclaim will just point them in the direction of roses, while not actually helping our own PoE much.

@umlaut, have you read *any* of the game? got any takes for us so far?

Since we're still in RVS apparently, though

VOTE: Gamma

tl;dr on this?

[Bell]

also, this speedwagon on dunn is making my stomach turn. he went from no votes to E-1 in what, 5 pages? 8 hours? while the other wagon was an uphill battle for the whole day?

Not sure if he’s playing off both wagons here or (Johnny, being the other) what. :/

[Bell]

I still want somebody to unvote dunnstral please. This game should be solvable from here.

Where did akarin go?

[Bell]

Oh.
Well that sucks.
So much for that hypothesis.
*throws it in trash*
K akarin. Help when you can.

[Bell]

Last call on the no gambiting thing. Past this point probably not gunna buy a reversal.

[Bell]

Right context.

If you lied about being a rose or gun out now or i’m Gunna steam roll ya if you change your story.
Uh, unless you’re not in danger and have a gun and can shot scum next dp. Whilst being confident you’ll avoid the wagon today.

In which case, don’t miss.
Though also I think it might be good?

Ugh, this is what lazy mental effort looks like. I can’t even seriously keep track of what it would mean if town lied with their claim or not.

[Bell]

^shit post.

[Bell]

Still feel decent about hiraki for the suck it d2 rose thing.

[Bell]

I can’t argue with this. *head scratch*
I’m just scattered. Though, also I think I lack fundamentals.

[Bell]

I was waiting for more from Akarin because she is confirmed town at this point.

Was hoping to solve alongside but, maybe not happening this DP.

I pretty much think the last scum is in Dunstral, DGB, Titus.

My priority is dragging myself out of the elim pool since that reduces the odds of us losing from a statistical stand point.

I can point to interactions with Gun that were relatively unlikely or unnecessarily complex interactions for scum to take.
My scum partner interaction game is bad.

[Bell]

7 > 5 > 3.

We can get them all
So I guess it's whether I want to bet the game on Hiraki TR and surviving myself or not.

[Bell]

Share when you wanna/can.

I just reread some sections. I have possibilities on scum partners, but nothing solid or seemingly obvious in their intent on non-flipped/unknowns in the scum pool.
It's just a bunch of, "it could be this" or "They might have meant this"
But I can't get a good grasp on likelihood.

Then I realized he might have been using boring instead of scummy
I initially thought that Maxwell might have made posts that point away from Sandman as a scum partner, describing their posts as boring and agreeing with me on them being boring in a way I don't they planed from post A to Post B. Before putting them up a little too high on their TR's. Sort of just discrediting them before slapping them in the town pile.

Then I realized that, on the otherhand, he might have slapped them with boring as a way to soften what might otherwise be construed as scummy play. Boring is neither scum or town. He just leaps quickly to some conclusions about Sandman at the end of his post for the town read.

So pretty much I'm not sure which way I should interpret his read there.

Also, Maxwell went way too detailed on me and I think it's fairly obvious he was using me as a lode stone while slapping me with an accurate TR. You can pretty much tell from his posts that he wasn't having trouble seeing from my perspective, where he might have had more difficulty if I were his scum partner because he wouldn't know my exact intent.

[Bell]

I think Maxwell's initial fake reaction to my push on Dunnstral sort of points away from Dunnstral. In his catch up.
It doesn't help That Dunnstral started this day phase with his head on straighter then mine and helped me figure out we had 2 town clears.
But it doesn't seem out of this world to go for town credits when behind on things that people would probably figure out anyway.

I had some fun reading about DGB hard bussing Maxwell if they're scum this game.
They did the same thing in death curse and it was amusing there too, but only in hindsight cause I misread them.

[Bell]

I already implied it, but in general it takes their focus away from them and gives them lowered expectations to interact with them.

But like I said it could also have been a simple discred before shoving him into the town pile so Max could be left alone.

I Pretty much see narratives for and against every player being scum and town at this point so I guess I have enough info for elo if it comes to that.
It's just a case of deciding which narratives are the most plausible.

It sounds like you're being vague as to why we might have only two miseliminations left. Since you're town, I'll assume it's a good reason. But my guess is something along the lines of the last scum possibly still having a shot left.
Which is absolutely not implausible.

[Bell]

Now, before you freak out on me for probably going back tomorrow and writing out a case for and against every player (Except DGB who, I don't really have much more than that they may have lolololol bussed Maxwell rn) and how that's a massive discred on each player and what not.

That's just kinda how I play when I feel there's enough information left.

[Bell]

I've called my own partners as 'possibly' boring scum before.
As a sort of hedge.

For the sake of accuracy, I will state that Maxwell was piggybacking off of my statement that Sandman was boring.
He just reinforced that argument/narrative by agreeing with it.

[Bell]

Just, Sandman and I can't be scum partners together because math.

[Bell]

I feel that Tanner was the weakest scum player among the two dead scum.
Having a pretty basic approach. Sometimes throwing a jab at their scum partner before voting elsewhere.
He's probably least likely to have some overly convoluted plot related to scum partners. Concerned somewhat with their own image. In a way that Maxwell might not have been. This is what gives me pause on partner distribution in his reads list.
If it were tanner, unless his partner acted super townie, he's gunna put them in the mid to low category for this game. Maxwell, I'm not so sure.

[Bell]

I recollect myself and focus. I must protect my Gún, it was in the very rites I swore by when I took the name Rosé.

what if gun is not good?

er, have i been playing the game wrong all this time? isn't the whole point seeing whose behaviour is more or less likely to come from certain alignment? (as i type this out, i feel like it sounds sarcastic, but i didn't intent it to be and don't know how to word it otherwise.)

no i did tangle with the phrasing a little bit

i guess the better wording is that you're playing probabilities too hard? to me it seems like you're townreading him for being too scummy to be scum which to me seems like an intentional act from Bell. I think we're agreeing there - although I don't have concrete evidence of that - but you're not agreeing on the final assessment. I'm moreso asking you to think why you should think someone who is actively anti-town is town. Are they doing it because it's their playstyle? Are they doing it because they have a grudge? I don't see a likelihood in either of those things but I could be wrong. What I definitely don't see is a productive way to play the game.

it's not just being too anti-town that he's town, it's more... things that i feel scum are less likely to do. i feel like you won't like this answer.

no, not really but i'm willing to agree to disagree

i guess the better wording is that you're playing probabilities too hard? to me it seems like you're townreading him for being too scummy to be scum which to me seems like an intentional act from Bell. I think we're agreeing there - although I don't have concrete evidence of that - but you're not agreeing on the final assessment. I'm moreso asking you to think why you should think someone who is actively anti-town is town. Are they doing it because it's their playstyle? Are they doing it because they have a grudge? I don't see a likelihood in either of those things but I could be wrong. What I definitely don't see is a productive way to play the game.

we're not agreeing on it being *intentional*. if you could show me how those posts seem intentionally crafted to seem too scummy to be scum, i'd see your point and maybe even agree with it. but i'm reading them as posts made in the moment as the game was happening. i guess my answer would be playstyle, though maybe i'm projecting the way i play the game.

how many reads do you have this game?

i tried to recall reads from memory, and realized the answer is "less than i usually do by this point". maybe "less than i should". i'll blame it on not yet receiving an answer to the things that currently interest me.

your memory is probably correct, your bias is not

She also voted Dunstral after me. The reads list is nonsensical.

agreed - i do not think it comes from scum though.

On page 5.... it could be scum seizing the narrative early.

do you really believe this or are you just trying to cover all bases?

At this point the top 3 players I am ready to vote out are Dunstral, Uncrowned and Rose.

Can you tell me where I should be looking for Dunn? Is it just because he has a wagon? I don't really see a "kill this with fire" that everyone else is seeing.

This seems somewhat counterintuitive. If Bell is scum, then he knows he needs to provide reads. He might choose to hold off to allow those reads to seem more fully fleshed out, but if he’s aware that providing them early is likely to be dismissed as something mafia wouldn’t do, then that’s a strong incentive for him to provide them early. I think the fact they were on page 1 is probably not very indicative of his alignment.

Yeah, this is about the best I can say about the current Bell handwaving here. "Too scummy to be scum" isn't a thing if the person is capable of not being scummy. Bell has done that in other games.

I think someone being rude is probably a feature of who that person is rather than their alignment. I would say maybe it is very slightly indicative of being town, but without knowing a person that’s no better than random. I think that’s quite likely from mafia, yes. Again, simply coasting out a game is not a way to win, you’re likely to just be eliminated for failing to do anything. It’s, at its best, a weak strategy. However, you also need to survive if you’re mafia. So if you piss off the wrong person, you have a strong reason to try to defuse things rather than using the conflict to try to get a better read on them or to use the situation of the conflict to try to get reads on the rest of the players e.g. how they position around the two of you.

I don't fully agree with this but it is stepping into Mafia Discussion rather than being relevant.

At this point, I'm pretty good with a Bell/Rose for D1. I haven't touched on it but I read the entirety of 146 and felt really annoyed. It's so much RP and fluff that it can be summed down to:

"(Bell's) temper may be short and his passion high, but his thoughts and intentions seemed pure at heart." which doesn't talk about the content but just the vigor behind it. If I could scumread people based on their personalities, then old-Hiraki would be lynched far more regardless of alignment.

We debated for a while on whether Rampage was his real name or if he just thought it sounded cool, and eventually agreed that the B probably stood for Barricaded, as that's how he felt in the way he carefully maneuvered around the town, talking about nothing more than his opinions on guns and roses.

Then we also got that which is completely the same thing that Bell had been doing which is probably why my initial assumption was never really considered.

Akarin isn't the worst substitute there but I don't have a great feeling there.

Mod: What's up with Paragon?

Didn't even get a post-edit for this. Sad!

I enjoy the roleplay personally. I think Rose having fun is great, so I'll save her for last. Uncrowned or Dunstral will be my primary pushes.

Yeah but are you reading it? Gun is actually playing the game - Rose is floating.

So you're saying that you

think

Rose has scumlean but there's nothing in the post that says that? Sort of like if Gun was just saying that ABR was doing X and Y but Gun also never got to a conclusion?

Besides, who told you to think for Rose?

I'm pretty sure Akarin/Gamma/Umlaut flip town, sorry.

I'm pretty sure Akarin/Gamma/Umlaut flip town, sorry.

Why do you think two highly contested d1 wagons were t v t?

Why are Gamma and Umlaut town?

Why is Johnny scum?

Why? What do you mean why? Is there a rule that this can't happen? Are you really implying this doesn't happen often?

Gamma is the one I'm shaky on. Umlaut is acting like town-Umlaut here which is something that I'd like to test this game. I don't expect anyone to 100% agree with that given how much information I've said though.

Johnny is posting elsewhere and isn't doing anything here except gloating that he's not doing anything. He did this a lot in Day 1 and just stayed under the radar and now he's just openly doing it. I have no reason to believe that kind of gloatpost comes from town other than town that is somewhat playing against their alignment (obviously it's not

flagrant

but it's something).

I am rather conflicted about the claim talk. I feel objectively that most claims should be eliminated but scum would naturally claim the ones that shouldn't be.

What do you think about what I said about it? I just don't see how there's any town positive benefit to it - except maybe if I didn't put my post down and just hoped that scum would play sub-optimally.

I’d rather this than JF, why the fuck did she ask the same exact question twice? It’s shallow questioning that is meant to appear productive but isn’t.

I don't blame you but what if it's just bad play? I don't see the scum-motive other than going slow. Which is fair but I think there are a lot better candidates there.

I haven’t read any of this game and I was hoping for scum lurk out slot to play this game

My pred picked a rose.

I’ll read through after work

Why aren't you just lying then? Tell me why to take off my vote and put it back on Bell (probably).

also, this speedwagon on dunn is making my stomach turn. he went from no votes to E-1 in what, 5 pages? 8 hours? while the other wagon was an uphill battle for the whole day?

I really don't think "uphill" is the right word here. Stalled, sure. Uphill? No way.

btw why'd you bring up you misreading Ico a lot?

Because I agree with your rationale against Ico but I feel that Ico has a tendency to do that as either slot. I guess putting it a little better is that I am apprehensive to use 'normal' tells for Ico. I'm not saying anything about Ico - it's just using past experiences to guide me. I've been burnt before, etc. etc.

[Bell]

Caution preach to rose could be either.
a. Just genuinely warning them (I did the same thing with DGB later).
b. Knowing gun is scum and saying this. It's airy.

I think 101# is just Hiraki either trying to convince Tanner to vote me because he thinks I'm scum in game versus out of game. To me this post seems more or less in-congruent with them being scum partners, though, if they wanted to change a scum partners mind they would need to post in thread as a stimulus to get them moving, you could post in the PT but then they either need to come up with their own reasons or not do so. Tanner essentially does nothing with this.

I kinda just want to throw my hands up and say this is a mystery post if they're scum together. It's not strong enough evidence to dissuade my view entirely away from scum. I shouldn't lean either way.

It's problematic that Hiraki never directly implies either Tanner or Gun is scum. While having pushed almost every other player in the game to one extent or another.

I can't tell if the Umlaut vote carried over to the Maxwell sympathy resistance.

What I am looking for however is consistency and they have quite a bit of that. They have some clever posts if they're scum because I don't think it's in line with Hiraki scum to taunt the scum team as scum themselves.

The argument with Dunnstral is interesting if Hiraki is scum or town because if town they were right on the money, whereas as scum it would be relatively easy to know that Dunnstrall was doing scum a favor and actively acting against their own interests seems rather convoluted of a plot. When I'm scum sometimes I play this angle, actively arguing against anti-town plans hoping that they either ignore me (no way does anyone ignore Hiraki's argument with dunn about claiming here, so not a good hope here I think) or that the town points offset the scum points on the surface.

I'm wondering what the explanation is for Hiraki to switch their vote from Johhny to Dunnstral halfway through day 2 as scum. There are explanations, not enough momentum, keeping Johnny for later, maintainingl consistency from old behavior related to replace outs and how they approach it, impatience, it not really mattering if they're both Town etc. But I'm not sure how plausible these are, rather which would be more likely or if it's just on the tin and Hiraki just got into an argument with Dunnstral, agreed with Gamma, realized not much was happening with Johnny and hopped on Dunnstral.

I also think there's stuff that can be spin rather easily as Hiraki town.
I'm pretty conflicted because town are pretty often wrong about stuff. So it's more about examining if they're wrong for town reasons or not. I'm somewhat struggling to decide.

[Bell]

I think Hiraki's treatment of Rose and Gun is consistent with other players in the thread and probably extremely difficult to parse for AI or to reach a correct conclusion on it anyway.

[Bell]

I don't want to bet the game on Hiraki based on my review and I need to reread until I make a decision and revise my assessment of the game. It's frustrating beause Hiraki's post feel very town. It's just their results are strange. It's difficult because Tanner and Gun were relatively inactive, pretty much the only one Gun interacted with heavily was me, this along with Maxwell anyway.

Tanner interacted, in my opinion, a lot with Hiraki, or at least more than other players. he asked relatively early on why I thought Johnny was town, while declining to ask about Hiraki.

@Dunnstrall, I was saying that we could eliminate all three if needed, with the assumption that the scum team had no shots left. It wasn't a good assumption though.

Looking over Tanner's posts again.

[Bell]

also, this speedwagon on dunn is making my stomach turn. he went from no votes to E-1 in what, 5 pages? 8 hours? while the other wagon was an uphill battle for the whole day?

VoteCount 2.4

Firebringer [3] - Tanner, Dunnstral, Akarin
DrippingGoofball [1] - Iconeum
Gamma Emerald [1] - DrippingGoofball
Dunnstral [5] - Gamma Emerald, Titus, Firebringer, Hiraki, Bell

Not Voting [1]

- maxwell

With 11 alive it takes 6 votes to be executed.

Countdown to deadline: (expired on 2020-12-24 09:35:46)

I'm a little confused on how much Tanner is giving away here.
I can't tell if he was just making a paranoid post while keeping relatively consistent with his reads without directly defending Dunnstrall.
Rather, neither he nor his partner are voting Dunnstrall but part of me thinks that 1: If Dunnstral is town. 2: If no scum are voting him. then 3: He might have been additionally setting up to push at the people on Dunnstral's wagon later.

There are a lot of other explanations though.

[Bell]

There really isn't a need for scum to plan who they'd rather push, town 2 or town 3.
Or rather, it's fairly rare for scum to have an order in mind.

[Bell]

Giving it another day for Akarin.

2 days on timer.

Then I'm just gunna read the last two again and slap down a vote and hope for the best.

[Bell]

Sure, I'll hammer if we're all wrapped up here.

[Bell]

VOTE: Titus

*bonk*

[Bell]

Sort of a snap judgment based on interactions with Sandman, Maxwell's positioning on him,
Dunnstral not really approaching my pressure on him how I'd expect scum him to react to pressure.
Not really conceiving of Dunnstral as the type to set up speculate and lead a mass claim as scum (I'm aware it would have benefited scum, but I'm not sure Dunnstrall would do that proactively as scum)

and just DGB tone read tbh.

[Bell]

Hopefully that ends the game but...25% is 25% chance which is not super duper great.

[Bell]

Oh and I liked Hiraki's response.

[Bell]

So why

were

so many town so filled with Dunn-bloodlust all game?

Scum looking to miselim him made a lot of sense, but I don't think they really drove it much, other than Maxwell's catchup post thing.

I misread him early and it took a lot for me to untunnel him!

GG.

[Bell]

Sorry for being annoying Dunnstral.
I played bad this game.

Vigs saved this from a probable loss.
While Hiraki would have probably gotten tanner and I would probably have gotten Gun. I would never have caught Tanner even though it was obv scum in hindsight.
The game became easier only post elimination of two scum.

[Bell]

Feel free to release notes PT btw. I don't know how to.