PookyTheMagicalBear v Flavor Leaf (Game Over)

[Ircher]

VOTE: Not Known 15

Hi folks!

[Ircher]

If we can not have 50 pages in 24 hours, I'd appreciate it.

[Ircher]

I think it makes more sense for him to pick Noraa for that reason, Dunn.

Also, we’re an informed townie that knows scum can multitask.

That's... not very useful info. Like, it is, but it also isn't. I guess this falls into the "Don't lim D1 pile" but eh.

Prepare for trouble!

And make it double!

To protect the town from devastation!
To unite all people within our townblock!

To denounce the evils of OMGUS and AtE!
To extend our reach to the spectators above!

Norwee

Alisae!

Team anime blasts off at the speed of light!
Surrender now, or prepare to

1v1!

Please add a sig line with the hydra members; thanks in advance!

We were told scum can kill and act in the same night.

You should also list your hydra members in your signature. I'd also appreciate it if you sign.

Ircher <--I actually don't know, but I imagine FL does.

Personal take: it varies per game, but I generally lean more towards being a bad liar.

Also, I'm a bit surprised you skipped RVS and went straight to speculating things about the draft. I wouldn't make any assumptions so far about it, but I would imagine Polar Bear Express would be a good pick for both Pooky and Flavor Leaf.

But I'm really tired now

(Creature is looking like, if there's scum in my 'bad liars' pool, an awful lot like the one scum there.)

This is a pretty bad take actually.

At bottom of page 2 so far.

[Ircher]

But I'm really tired now

(Creature is looking like, if there's scum in my 'bad liars' pool, an awful lot like the one scum there.)

Why tf would I lie about being tired?

Perhaps you want to sneak out of RVS time you little rascal.

- Norwee

...No.

I'm not calling you a liar that's lying about being tired, I'm profiling you as a generically bad-liar, and in this game I'd expect FL to recruit a maximum of one bad liar and if he did so, you'd be my best guess among the bad-liars pool for being the player picked to be scum.

But how does being tired strengthen your read on Creature?

I'm voting the Noraa hydra who already looks like scum.

Huh? What looks scummy about Polar Bear Express at this point in time?

Seems like we're back

hi all!

~mist

Same comment to y'all as the other hydrae: please add hydra members to signature.

I'm not entirely sure about Dunnstral (depends on Titus's view on Dunn), but I can actually believe this--Titus is well aware that in the last two years,

I thought the bans were random?

Post 77 pings me as well, and Noraa is also someone I think FL would be likely to pick, and Spiffeh looks better right now

What aspect of the post pings you?

Spoiler: Open if you're interested in doing mock drafts

Players down to do mock drafts:
Alisae
MURDERCAT

Basically the plan is we're gonna do mock drafts and after the draft concludes we're gonna talk about why we went with what we did. We might get something out of it, we might not, but regardless its all fun and games and thats mostly why we're doing it.

While this might be fun, it's also rather a waste of time better spent hunting actual scum, and I'm not sure what you expect this to achieve. Scum would jump at an opportunity to fluff up the thread free from scrutiny.

because the game can be decided on draft. It's not about reading into FL but rather understanding what each player's strength's and weaknesses are, and how that impacts the draft and why you may want to draft that individual player.

I don't see how this counters Netflix's point that it is Flavor doing the draft, not the rest of us.

At bottom of page 6.

[Ircher]

VOTE: double

Either you’re town intentionally playing this game the way flavor wants us to play it or you’re scum. Either way, you need to go.

I think this is a bit overdramatic reaction to Double's mock draft request. This seems to be a policy vote more than anything.

We're up to 5 posts where Bell directly interacts with a tree stump, so far, in case anyone was wondering

Yeah, and not in a natural way for a townie. So. Why is your vote elsewhere?

I agree with this. Bell's posts feel a bit off.

I think instead of trying to play “guess the reigning DC’s draft” we could just, ya kno, scumhunt? And not play the game on his terms, giving him that much more control over it?

I think this is a great idea.

Code: Select all

[spoiler=]

is your friend

(But this requires effort... Especially on mobile...)

Like, stop being a party pooper.
You're obviously town ya but ur being a jackass.
Also, you might get more out of not complaining, sitting back, and watch what happens, ya?

This is extremely aggressive and honestly imo undeserved.

Whelp Noraa's town.
That wasn't hard tho.

15 to go.

Way too early to be townbinning Noraa. I read and followed Death Curse for awhile; she's very much a capable scum player.

To bottom of page 10. It's late so I'll finish tomorrow.

[Ircher]

Is this much faffing about typical for you two?

i don't have a read on you atm

I guess scum could tunnel you, but this feels kinda weak.

Whelp Noraa's town.
That wasn't hard tho.

15 to go.

TR on Bell

Murder, did you draw scum? What makes you think this is obviously town!Noraa? Why does townreading Noraa rn equate to being town?

I don't agree, I don't think that post makes sense timing-wise if he already thought noraa was town from draft reasons

I believe scum would not start the game TRing town Noraa

Why not? If I were scum, I think that would be an easy read to make and defend without effort. scum!I would totally be willing to make that read at the get-go.

I'd thought I'd have to

hard defend her

and then she basically got swapped with another human being and is so obviously not scum this game that whatever doubt I might have had kind of died right there (well, not all of the doubt, let's be real) lol.

It was sort of to support my point through theatrics.

(Emphasis mine.) Huh????

Huh? What looks scummy about Polar Bear Express at this point in time?

oh shit I didn't even read up to here yet. my slot hadn't even posted yet right?
Add mastina into my solve and I have a whole set :O

You had like one or two posts at this point. I just don't think they were really indicative in either direction.

What aspect of the post pings you?

Awkward over-explainey entrance followed by leaving

I think this is fair to an extent, but I also think it fits Noraa's general posting style, so I don't agree with the conclusion.

wow this game is gonna take awhile to get to the hunting part if most players already posted huh

This comment makes no sense. If most people are posting, doesn't that imply people are hunting for scum? Why would that delay the transition to scumhunting (if such a transition is a thing).

Noraa titus is going to mod kill you if you keep QAing the auto VC

Lots of fluff coming from this slot. Not sure what to make of it.

Is this much faffing about typical for you two?

I would like to know as well.

At bottom of page 15.

[Ircher]

i usually just post some really toxic appeal to emotion and people stop reading and just assume i'm town
i'll do that if anyone votes me in this game

VOTE: pichu

WTF is wrong with you ydrasse
i'm so obvtown it hurts and you're literall ybraind ead not to see that

di gysou NOT SSE My posts oNthe otehr page ffs thi s happens to me leiteally every time i roll town
i wish i could be scdum every game for real

im sorry. im sosofucking osyryr,... plase im crying rn pleasen take it bakc/

VOTE: polar bear express

i changed mim soryr...

This interaction kinda pings me. Seems like possible scum theatre.

i'm more of a silver

I’m more of a gold.

why didn't you pick me
you could've coached me and we could've use the wifom of me asking for town in the thread
i set it up for you perfectly

this was pretty bad

yeah, I'm tired of this at this point. I'm scum lol

wtf? isn't this game throwing

This is super scummy.

weird that the polar bear and ircher counterwagons showed up in response to Dunnstral
i think that's a good sign

Why is that a good sign? Also, two votes in a large theme is hardly a wagon or counterwagon.

This is an impressively nothing post

VOTE: Not Known 15

~mist

I don't have much experience with Not Known 15 as a player in mafia, but they seem the calculating, thoughtful, and logical type. I don't think that post is really indicative of anything.

I don't like the first line of 270 because, if that's really how you feel then what is the point of mentioning it? I feel like scum is more likely to feel self-conscious about not having anything to say and posting something like this, whereas town would just not post until there was something worth saying

I have a feeling that this is actually highly dependent on the player.

And then I think it's interesting that they call Not Known's post "impressively nothing" when half of their ISO are basically nothing posts?

I don't think hypocrisy, at least not in this case, is much of a scum tell, especially devoid of other context.

At the bottom of page 20. Will finish the rest later.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Ydrasse

[Ircher]

This thread moves too fast. I will try to finish catching up tomorrow, but don't count on it happening. Hopefully, I will take some time to elaborate on my current reads and why I voted Ydrasse. I still stand by my comment that the Pichu-Ydrasse interaction looked like scum theatre spam.

[Ircher]

People need to stop shading Battle Mage for not posting when he said multiple times that he is V/LA on the weekends.

[Ircher]

Okay so here's why I voted Ydrasse. First of all, I didn't like how they were interacting with pichu; that still looks like a scum-scum interaction. All it served to do was clutter several pages with nothing of use.

I also don't like 349. She has multiple posts beforehand and interactions with other players/the stumps. There was zero need to post it; it just fills up the thread with unnecessary clutter.

After that, we have the whole pichu and Ydrasse interaction. I will say it as many times as I must, but that really felt like a SvS interaction. /MAYBE/ it was a TvS interaction, but I doubt it was TvT. 352, 354 are especially bad. Their interaction also took up an entire 3 pages and yet didn't move the game forward in any significant away. That just awfully seems like scum theatre.

[Ircher]

Dunn/Ydrasse/Double/Mastina/Murder?
me maybe needs to remove murder otherwise the number doesn't be add up. but me also doesn't thinks me ends up in like five murder town games.

then again uno was in three of my scum games and that be more rare so me doesn't know anymore.

Ah, the good old Gambler's Fallacy. Serious note though: I think you should keep Murder in your scum!pool. I haven't been impressed with their early posting (i.e.: to where I am caught up to in the thread.)

Good morning to you all. I'm not going to overspeculate, but I'm going to at least assume scum didn't go crazy with their role picks. I'm VT which means I'm just along for the ride this game. Flave's got his team he wants, Pooky his team of Masons he wants, other peeps got some juicy powerz probably, and then me... stuck in the middle twiddlin' my thumbs.

Why did you go ahead and claim? That being said, I think this premature claiming of VT is much more likely to come from town than scum.

Noraa, 3/4 of the scum team didn’t decide to elim you out of the gate.

How do you know? They all shady af and big ass scumbutts.

I would imagine experience. This is just not something that really happens, especially for a somewhat well-known player.

why is there a did in there then

You know, if you were paying attention, you would know. Definitely not a scumslip (as Polar Bear later tries to suggest it is); it was already mentioned Flavor Leaf had to redraft.

[oh dearr.]

[Hello.. oh man.. hi Alisae, hi Norwe, hi again Spiffeh, hi Noraa, hi Gloria, hi Ydrasse, hi BM!, hia Bell, hi Dunny, hi Ircher, and hi mastina!]

~Morning

Hi Solstice. I see you are keeping up the posting convention from GPick earlier this year.

NY2177

also which game is this?

New York - Mini 2177

Fun fact totally unrelated to the game: mini normals were for awhile hosted in Little Italy. Large normals stayed in New York. So when I see someone say NY###, I generally associate that as being a large normal.

Right off the bat, I think Flavour wouldn't pick them because there's a decent chance in a game like this that ppl get annoyed with the high post volume and vote Noraa out for it -- she's good at scum, but she also attracts D1 elims. Although I suppose I don't know how well Flavour knows Noraa.]

I don't think I've ever seen this in practice actually. I'm not sure why you would think such would be a thing.

[Noraa is pulling out the classic OMGUS scumread everyone suspecting her tactic. Feel like every game I've ever played with Noraa or read about, she was scum.. so I guess I don't know how to interpret it. She does it a lot though.]

I agree that this is what Noraa is doing here. It's often a move I associate with newer players, but Noraa has been around for awhile. Not sure what to make of it...

[My guess is still that Flavour would probably be biased against picking hydras because they're usually more elim-baity from my experience. As we are demonstrating currently by having the two hyperposty hydras as main wagons]

Uh, is this actually a thing? I'm pretty sure I haven't seen this before, but if you have any links to evidence of this, I would like to see them.

[Dunny trying to make sense out of the madness (374, 389) and being annoyed about not having a good idea where to vote (443) feels slightly fake but also, I probably shouldn't suspect someone for trying to play the game....]

Eh, I don't see it as fake. It seems inline with Dunnstral's demeanor.

dunnstral wagon was at the top meaning ircher and polar bear wagons came along later
the sign is good because scum want to counterwagon if dunnstral is scum

I'm still not following. Where does the scum!Dunnstral assumption come from?

At the bottom of page 25. Also I saw the town treestump post a lim pool for today, and I think that's an awful post for several reasons: 1) we still have a whole week 2) some of the people in your PoE aren't fully caught up and the game just began like 2 days ago 3) this is just a bad strategy in general because it gives scum license to focus their reads there and ignore doing actual scumhunting elsewhere. I would advise the stump to reconsider.

[Ircher]

Also I saw the town treestump post a lim pool for today, and I think that's an awful post for several reasons: 1) we still have a whole week 2) some of the people in your PoE aren't fully caught up and the game just began like 2 days ago 3) this is just a bad strategy in general because it gives scum license to focus their reads there and ignore doing actual scumhunting elsewhere. I would advise the stump to reconsider.

Ircher showing up in response to Ircher wagon + Ircher in POE pool makes me think we are on the right track.

Zzz... I knew someone was going to make this post.. To be clear, I am still loosely (and I mean /loosely/) following the recent thread activity even if I am not caught up to that point.

[Ircher]

Why Mudercat?

Why are you so concerned about votes on you? If you are town just find the scum

Is it not unreasonable to understand who is legitimately scumreading you and who isn't? Like sure, we should focus on finding scum rather than defending ourselves, but I think this is a bad response. It's bad because it's needlessly aggressive and makes unfounded assumptions in order to try to advance a certain perspective.

i worry that it's easier for you to post like this as scum and benefits you a lot more as scum
since the loose free flowing form of posts you have as town are much harder to fake if you're scum

This is a good observation actually. Tweet does seem a bit more formal here than what I remember.

VOTE: Ydrasse

bad vote
but why is this where you ended up after you had many more reasons to dislike me in 614

This is a good question. Part of it is because sometimes when you are taking issue with a lot of things that someone says, that is a sign your process or viewpoint of the situation is wrong. In other words, it can (perhaps paradoxically) have the opposite effect where I feel less confident in scum!you despite what I say. I think I elaborated on the other aspects already.

[Ircher comes to the right conclusion about misty's alignment but that's not really a reason to townread him. Maybe a tinge of white knighting. i'd be okay voting Ircher because the similarity to KMD's take I have in memory is uncannny]

I actually don't remember really saying anything about your other head's alignment, and I also double-checked my ISO and didn't see anything there either. Did you misspeak here when you said "Ircher came to the right conclusion of Misty alignment?"

[Although perhaps i shall ask Ircher -- What about pichu/Ydrasse pings as SvS, if you know? Although my guess would be that ydrasse's vote on pichu was pretty nothing burger. Eh.]

Yeah the voting interaction in 405, 406, and 407 is one of those things that make me lean scum-scum here. Particularly, it just all feels staged and not natural... That's probably not the best word for it. I think I addressed my other issues with the overall interactions, so I will abstain from repeating myself.

I remember being UTR tho.

UTR? Not sure I know what that abbreviation means. Oh looking further down the page, seems to be short for "under the radar."

[Noraa my point is that i think you're elim baity and i also think hydras are elim baity and also there's a ton of WIFOM paranoia people are going to have of you as well with regards to FL picking you. i think there are a lot of reasons for FL to not pick you and instead just have you eliminated later]

I'm actually not at all thrilled with this take. But I don't think it necessarily implies Solstice is scum. If anything, it may suggest Solstice & Polar Bear are aligned.

Team FL go go go!

Huh? Surely you mean team Pooky...

This is Gloria btw. I think that Noraa’s and my posting styles are so completely different, signing is very probably redundant.

Redundant or not, it is still helpful in ensuring we don't have to guess.

HOW DO YOU FIND THE ONE POST THAT CALLS YOU OUT IN THE MIDDLE OF A BUNCH OF PAGE

I'll wait to see Battle Mage's response, but this isn't as hard as you suggest here. (Also, 475 is at the top of a page, so...)

i turned up

i saw 28 pages

i used search function for "battle mage"

This is 100% buyable. I do something similar from time to time. Furthermore, given Battle Mage's demeanor, this seems 100% inline as something they would do.

I feel like using the search function is scummy

No, not really. It's a useful tool that shouldn't be overlooked.

At bottom of page 30.

[Ircher]

Also I saw Toog slipped somewhere?

Nah, that didn't happen. That was just a misunderstanding of Toog's post.

Currently am thinking Polar Bear Express should be the most protown lynch there is. Though, they're pretty much rand and I really wanted to lynch scum before Flavor Leaf fearkills me.

No offense to Noraa and Gloria, but I kinda concur with this sentiment. (I'll be quick to add that neither Creature in his post nor me here is saying that we're scumreading the slot. Just that eliminating them would probably help out a lot in making the game readable.)

I'm more of a Blastoise guy myself anyway.

Alright, this was like your fifth post totally devoid of actual content. While I do understand this is your style, we do need you to put some actual effort into the game. Otherwise, we may have to policy eliminate you, and that's really a waste for both us and you.

I agree with Pichu

Ircher does sound very bad

I wanna vote Ircher, Creature, Nk15.

This is an awful take. Creature/NK15 seem like easy targets to pick on. Also, NK15 hasn't done much at all... How are you reading him as scum already?

Fair, so let me put it another way;
Noraa's content has felt like scumposting to me through and through the entire time.

mastina, I have to ask: have you calibrated your reads to take into account personality? It really feels to me you are scumreading Noraa here based on style and not content.

Hard disagree mastina I get the feeling Noraas actually enjoying posting this game which IMO means she’s happy she’s town and doesn’t have to worry about rapid elim again.

This is a good observation and one that I somewhat agree with.

This reads like total bullshit. Your entire read is based on them seeming like they are "enjoying the game"? They can't enjoy the game as scum?

You should probably peek at Death Curse, especially towards the end. I think it is clear from that game that Noraa enjoys town much more than scum.

For instance, these posts look terrible since they're explicitly OMGUS+reverse-OMGUS (townreading a player townreading your slot + scumreading players scumreading your slot), and it no longer flows as well.

I do agree that Noraa has been OMGUSing a lot, but that's not necessarily indicative of scum. As I pointed out earlier, it's mostly a sign of inexperience. Also, when you think someone is being scummy with every post (and especially if you are the only one), it might be a sign that you are incorrect in your gauge and need to recalibrate.

Oh my

Can't feel any more energy to play mafia

For the record if Creature were town here I'd expect him to tell DEB to vote someone here--that this is his posting instead does make me think he's scum.

Eh, I don't agree mainly cuz Creature is coming off as not at all invested in the game's outcome. Like sure, maybe that's a scum indicator; I'm pretty sure Creature is less enthusiastic about scum than town. But even so, it's not a strong indicator because there are a bunch of other lurking variables to consider that may be factoring his interest.

I realize a lot of people are draft speculating but the way Solstice is approaching noraa about her own meta feels like "noraa look how town I am using your meta to read you!" rather than "this is how I feel about noraa", particularly in this post:

But you attracted early votes which i attributed to your sort of elim baity nature

those were RVS votes.

[You and shelly were like the main wagons for the front half of D1, with Redados taking a resurge after a while]

[Noraa my point is that i think you're elim baity and i also think hydras are elim baity and also there's a ton of WIFOM paranoia people are going to have of you as well with regards to FL picking you. i think there are a lot of reasons for FL to not pick you and instead just have you eliminated later]

~Morning

And I'm scum reading them outside of that so I guess I focused on their draft spec more than others oh well

(Going to add this to my ISO to refer back to later. Not sure if I agree with it though.)

Your reasons seem pretty weak and superficial, on a playerslot that's probably one of the easiest to finger as scum, since both halves of the hydra are players that tend to be lower-hanging fruit. (Mistygirl in particular.)

While I feel that there are reasonable reasons to finger that slot as suspicious, the ones you're going after seem entirely forced and fake, as if you're struggling to come up with a genuinely good scumread on any slot so picked an easier slot to go after.

(Adding this post to my ISO as well...)

Up to page 35. That's probably it for tonight.

[Ircher]

I'd say that Morning Tweet posting in the style chosen for this game is, since the chosen style is not one which makes you hard to eliminate. Quite the opposite. Morning Tweet's chosen posting style this game is very very easy to have the town eliminate them for it.

Are you talking about Tweet's brackets? Because if so, I don't agree. It is just a stylistic change, nothing more.

Ircher reminds me of his DEFCON 4 incarnation which was town, that meta's like four years old now

What's the last game I've played with you? I'm almost certain you've used that line before. Anyway, I think 4-years old meta is a bit too old to be useful. I'm pretty sure my meta has fluctuated quite some since then.

Oh, it was On the Flying Scumsman (which isn't on my wiki because it was abandoned). And indeed, you used similar reasoning to townread me in that game as well.

You think I'm a good scum/liar, yeah?
Has you ever thought about whether or not Flavor does as well?
Ze answer is no cuz his only game wif me where me was scum, me was USR day 1 and elimmed day 2 :/

I mean, even if you aren't great, you're at least competent/clever enough to delay an inevitable elimination for quite some time. You proved that in Death's Curse. Furthermore, it's not just about getting good scum players. Flavor Leaf might want to deny town a strong player, and you would likely fall into that category as well.

VOTE: Easybake

Go vote someone useful.

Because while I believe that he is genuinely V/LA on weekends, I do not believe that his V/LA on weekends status means that he doesn't post here yesterday

I mean, isn't part of the whole reason for V/LA is that you may not post at all on a day? Granted, he probably should have declared V/LA in some manner officially.

today posts only four posts that were all Beetlegeusy

Were they? I don't recall anyone really calling Battle Mage out at the time he posted. He did quote a post like 300 posts ago mentioning him, but that doesn't count. His further posts seemed to be within the same time window, so it's reasonable to think he was loosely following along at that time. (I double checked, and he made his posts in a 30 minute window.)

BM leaning scum

Based on him being V/LA and making a handful of posts asserting such? Zzz...

Things feel like they're going super slowly and some people feel like they're not participating.

Not at all. Things are progressing at a lightning-fast pace, and some of y'all need to slow it down. That being said, certain players need to contribute more.

I noted Dunn being more engaged than I’ve seen him recently and wasn’t sure what to make of it.

I was just in xenoblade with you two

I just called u a big scumbutt and u come back. lurking confirmed?

It's possible, but honestly, this is very unlikely. It's equally reasonable to suppose that this is the time of day when Dunnstral checks the thread. Like imo, most timing "tells" are rather bad actually because there is not enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis that they finally had time to check the thread and responded to recent thread activity.

At bottom of page 40.

[Ircher]

Current solve:

Bell + At least one of {Ydrasse, Pichu} + MURDERCAT? + Solstice?

Dr. Easy Bake could be scum too, but it's hard to tell when they refuse to play.

[Ircher]

Dunnstral, masina, and Netflix and Chill.

For mastina: While I don't agree with her takes, I do think that her reads transparency is indicative of being town.
Netflix and Chill have generally good takes for this game. They seem to be trying to solve and a little annoyed by all the clutter.
Dunnstral I feel is being targeted unfairly so due to his posting style. His observations have generally been good from what I remember.

[Ircher]

V/LA December 8

Don't expect me to post that day. I will post some more this evening.

[Ircher]

Also I saw the town treestump post a lim pool for today, and I think that's an awful post for several reasons: 1) we still have a whole week 2) some of the people in your PoE aren't fully caught up and the game just began like 2 days ago 3) this is just a bad strategy in general because it gives scum license to focus their reads there and ignore doing actual scumhunting elsewhere. I would advise the stump to reconsider.

[Ircher]

what if this is a bastard game and flavor leaf is the town stump and pooky is actually a soul scum mason
anyway your turn to pick

(Honestly, with Pooky doubling-down on the lim pool of 4 when we still have a week left in Day 1, it sure feels like this is the case.)

>hello everyone ^^
>i'm just gonna spam the thread and make it unreadable lolol

I can imagine this is actually a scum strategy this game. And to be quite honest, it is working well.

record mentioning she dislikes playing scum a lot
so if Flavor Leaf did any research he's not picking her most of the time

This isn't in any way indicative of town!Ydrasse. It is the very essence of a WIFOM argument.

there's a genuineness and SOULvibe to it which would be hard to fake as scum
also she fluffs less and it feels more stilted when she's scum

Noted, but I'm not convinced.

This isn't a red flag?

No, but since nobody thinks they're town, let's get them out of here

Eh, I think Not Known 15 raises a good point. Scum are rather incentivized to attempt to protect their buddies, and while distancing might be common, there's generally at least one buddy who will help you out. A consensus scumread on a player is a sign that that player may actually be town.

it's harder to read/engage with because Ydrasse, Pichu, Double the Trouble, Polar Bear Express, and Pooky are all posting low quality content

I agree, especially Ydrasse, pichu and Polar Bear Express.

Maybe FL told them to post cringey content to minimize everyone else's will to play?

Sadly, it's very unlikely all three of them are scum.

This is an INCREDIBLY bad take from Creature and I am inclined to think that such a horrendously bad series of posts from Creature is strongly indicative of him being scum.

(In reference to 1116.) How so? From my perspective, it's a pretty accurate assessment. They are 1) posting a lot 2) not posting stuff that helps drive the game forward and 3) generally making it difficult for people who are behind to catch up by the sheer volume of posts. Also, Creature didn't really assign an alignment to any of the named slots; he suggested it may be a possible scum strategy, but that's a fair assessment. Finally, you don't seem to take issue with Dunnstral's comment. What makes Creature's comment worse than the comment of Dunnstral's that Creature quoted in his post?

Pichu and Ydrasse have content. some dumb dumbs just can't see it -__-

Sure, they both have content, probably more so Pichu than Ydrasse, but it's buried under all the fluff. So, when people go read their posts, they have a tendency to skim past posts because of the fluff, and they miss the little amount of content that is intermixed with the fluff.

At bottom of page 46.

[Ircher]

Okie so methinks that the main reason people's are sus of BM is not ze inactivity but that he cherrypicked a few posts to reply to in ze middle of nowhere. Makes him look like he lurking.

Battle Mage already explained that he searches for his username, which is a completely reasonable explanation for him answering posts that mention or are near posts that mention him.

Also, let's be honest. The most scummy thing Battle Mage has done by this point in time is have more posts than me at this time point. What I mean by this is that he has spent several posts saying something akin to "I'm V/LA" when in that time, he could have just not posted. That being said, this isn't a major scummy issue because several people are calling him out for not posting, so he has to reiterate his point.

See. Dis is wut me means. Whenever mentioned, he pops up out of the mist and mefeels like saying "coincidink? I think not!"

There's around a 30-45 minute delay between his post before that one and that post. That's not enough evidence to support the alternative hypothesis that Battle Mage is beetlejuicing. You can skim the thread to check if you're mentioned. It's really not that unreasonable of a thing to do.

Because if that is indeed the sort of artificially raising your postcount that you think at least one scum will do...

I will point out that Creature does this as either alignment.

Instead of one post explaining it and eleven of doing anything resembling scumhunting.
Or one post explaining, a second post clarifying, and ten posts of some rudimentary basic scumhunting.
Or even just one post where you officially and publicly declare to the mod that you're V/LA over the weekend, leaving it at just that.
You've made twelve posts, and all of them are excuses to avoid making content.

This is what I was getting at above and probably better worded than my attempt. Still, while I agree it's something to take not of, I don't think it's strong enough for the confidence people are expressing in their Battle Mage scumreads.

In my experience, town!Creature is always actively engaged with the game and has one of the highest post counts in the thread, whereas scum!Creature lurks and constantly plays catch up

I feel this is based on older meta. His meta has warped quite some, and I have seen ambivalent town!Creature before.

i'm getting more the impression he's skimming the game and not drawing any conclusions from it because he is not in a solving mindset.

I agree with the premise here but not the conclusion. It can be dangerous (from a reads accuracy perspective) to make conclusions from a surface-level skim.

Total scumbutt. Barely any content. Keeps shading me for no literal reason. doesn't justify any of their votes whatsoever. The one on me was trash. The current on on double is pretty trash too.
Literal definition of scumbutt.

So, in other words, Dunnstral is scum because 1) OMGUS 2) voting people you townread 3) scunreading your slot. (I guess that is covered by #1, but hey, you mentioned it twice, so...)

Also, I realize that is somewhat a misrepresentation of your stance, but my point is that your read on Dunnstral (and in this game in general) seem to boil down to agreeing/disagreeing with you. That seems rather surface level.

reread what 243 says

And calling you annoying isn't shading

Yes, @Noraa --> Dunnstral never said he scumread you in 243. All he said was that you are acting different from a recent game that you played (probably a scum game of yours?) and that he doesn't like the style. You can dislike a player's posts while still thinking they are town or having a mixed read on them. That's not really shading. Also, posts like 321 are factually true and thus cannot count as shading.

Battle Mage for feeling like a soft tee-ball compared to their usual townie assertiveness.

Okay, this is a good point actually. He does like commanding a dominating presence in the thread.

Dunnstral for their line: "nobody vouches for Double the Trouble."

Eh, I don't think this is alignment-indicative at all. Particularly, it is more a sign of not reading close enough or misremembering rather than being a misrepresentation that is driving a scum agenda.

but only bc my main problem with Ircher is that what he's saying makes absolutely no sense to me.

And this is scum-indicative because __________?

So I am here and caught up. There is a ton of noise still. I'm gunna like, not really share my reads? I kind of feel like Pooky should be leading more?
If any of you want anything from me let me know.

There's like zero reason for you not to share your reads. Stuff like this make me think you are scum, Murder.

At bottom of page 50.

[Ircher]

dude says YdrassexPichu interactions look SvS

Certainly there's more to it than just that.

I thought Ircher's first vote was really scummy, as I've already explained.

And this really isn't fair. It's equally as probable that I randomly voted someone (that I knew) (because RVS is typically a thing) and it just so happened to be someone y'all were talking about awhile ago.

The first two times he tried to catch up in thread, he stopped about 4-5 pages short of a full catch-up, which made me think it was deliberate.

It was in fact deliberate in a sense. It takes me like 30+ minutes to go through 5 pages thoughtfully. So, I was trying to chunk it rather than do it all in one go. Also, in the case of 325, it was around midnight, and you can verify that I'm not normally active on the site between midnight and 7 am EST. Even at 5 pages, that still would have meant I would stay up longer than I'd like.

i think the BM case has solid reasoning

i also think it is not correct

~mist

This is a good post from the Solstice slot.

ok sure VOTE: Ircher

Out of the six votes on the page, this one is by far the worst in part because it seemingly materializes out of nowhere. He hasn't mentioned me in his last couple of posts, and this really feels like a "I think I can get away with it" kind of vote. The timing and wording are both awful. (Okay, Ydrasse's vote also looks bad, but less so than yours.)

me dont care and me dont have much meta on Dunn.
methinks Dunn is scum and dat isn't changing especially not with his buttload of shade >:(

This isn't really town-friendly behavior. Just saying.

so after consulting for a long time with my ace team of mason friends we have come up with this POE-4;

we will eliminate someone from this list today:

Double Trouble
Ircher
Battle Mage
Dunnstral

Pls don't put anyone within 2 votes of being elim'd I'd like to do some final heart-heart talk with the victim first thanks!

Town treestump or not, this is still an awful post and awful idea, and I'm going to continue repeating this until you reevaluate. I townread at least half this pool (including me), probably 3/4s even. (Battle Mage is the main question mark due to not contributing over the weekend.)

So while I ultimately want to get your ok before pushing an elimination through I think it's way too early in the Day, especially the FIRST Day, to limit the elim-pool already. Now anyone outside of this list won't have any genuine reactions to pressure because they know they won't even be on the table anyway

I strongly consider you delay limiting our options at this time

This is just one of many reasons why the lim pool (at least this early in the game) is such a bad idea.

I for one, welcome our Pooky overlord who is letting me ignore almost all of you

This post pings me, especially the ending. It has a degree of joking-ness to it, but at the same time, I think MURDER truly is saying here that he plans on ignoring everyone not mentioned in the pool. Certainly, his behavior this day is not helping (in his favor) my interpretation of his post here.

that's good point, we just want discussion focused on this poe-4 rn,

so go real in depth on who you want to kill or save from this list,

Yes, but people are gonna take this as license to ignore the rest of the player list, and that's not a good thing at all. You shouldn't present it as a limpool. You should instead ask people to explain and focus their reads on those people like you do here. It may not seem like a huge difference, but it is.

Am I giving Toogeloo and Bell too much credit?

Bell seems a bit under the radar this game. Toogeloo feels nullish to me with a twinge of scum. So imo, yes, you are giving them too much credit.

lol hey hectic

I will point out that MURDERCAT's past 5+ posts have been all fluff without a twinge of scumhunting in them.

Norwee is scum but ali seems town

This post says practically nothing considering they are the same slot.

At bottom of page 55. That's it for tonight.

[Ircher]

VOTE: MURDERCAT
Many of the recent posts I've read from MURDER are awful, and I haven't really been comfortable with his slot all game.

[Ircher]

It's okay, the magical tree stump has narrowed the pool for us.

You shouldn't be encouraging people to ignore scumhunting amongst the rest of the player list.

Why are you reading from the first page, now?

(This was directed at Creature. Read the page for context.) This is a good question, and I would like answer as well assuming Creature hadn't already answered it.

Bell please talk to me

If I say anything about it it's ev-.

Yeah, this makes no sense. You're at this point in time "stuck" presumably in terms of getting reads this game. Okay, maybe that's a true statement, maybe it's not, but it doesn't matter. Anyway, someone tries to reach out to you to help you, and you flat out reject it claiming it's a -EV move??? How could you getting a grasp on the game hurt town's chances?

It's probably a little lazy to just write him off as town from it but in a game where I don't have many confident reads it's something

Honestly, I feel like you are trying to buddy me, but at the same time, I don't know why that would benefit scum!you. (And yes, using 4-years old meta is rather on the lazy side.)

And I feel like him establishing 'an easy posting style to hide behind' should give you more concern than it has been. And I certainly don't think the latter part outweighs the former.

(I do think your lack of meta experience with me means that your read on me is rather inaccurate. The style of posting I'm doing this game is pretty typical for me as either alignment; albeit admittedly, I'm not usually this far behind, so there tends to be a bit more real time interactions as well.)

You appear to agree with me on Bake,

That doesn't change the fact that DEB was still an easy target to focus on and also a valid target to avoid actually searching for scum.

Also, your position on Noraa and Gloria is genuinely gross.

And this is relevant how? I don't think I've even really given a read on the slot anyway, so idk what you find gross about my position on them.

VOTE: Double the Trouble
I have played with Norwegianboy in the past.
This isn't town. This is scum drowning the thread with distracting and spammy posts.

Uh, there are plenty of other players that are drowning the thread with distracting and spammy posts. Why are you singling out Double the Trouble here?

Eh, nothing has grabbed my interest yet. Typical D1 shit, I’ll Hammer who ever gets up there.

The sad thing is I've seen DEB as town play in this antitown manner before. He doesn't even have a gimmick this game as an excuse for not playing.

"Me(ircher)thinks that ydra and pichu(hoctac) are big slimebutts bc of their interactions. BUUUUUUUUUT methinks a PL on Queen Noraa is more appropriate for dis occasion"

@Noraa:

This is rather a misrepresentation of my position. Obviously, fading scum is the best outcome from today. Hence why my vote stayed on Ydrasse at the time. On the flip side though, I can see where Creature is coming at and agree with the sentiment. That doesn't necessarily mean I condone policy executing your slot, and I'll go on record and officially state that aside from possibly Dr Easy Bake (because 1) he has high scum equity 2) he's unreadable and 3) it's unlikely he'll become more readable as the game progresses), I'm not supporting any eliminations that amount to a policy launch.

PFFT. dude do you know what ur talking about

Maybe. Maybe not. But let's consider the following: suppose I don't know what I am talking about. What exactly am I gaining by giving nonsensical takes? (Because if it is truly nonsensical, no one is gonna follow it or trust it just because I said so.)

And honestly I'm here for it because I think that was a weak buddy attempt.

You're gonna have to elaborate on how that's a buddying attempt because I didn't make a comment on Noraa's alignment this game with that post. I stated something that I believe to be true.

Me thinks Creature is scummy for shading me all over ze place.

Thinking you are annoying is not shading.

Ok, please justify the Dunn read with quotes because I'm not seeing it.

@MURDERCAT

:

And the majority of the scum I'd expect to be in {Double the Trouble, Polar Bear Express, Not Know 15, Battle Mage, Dunnstral, Dr Easy Bake}.
There's going to be 2-3 scum in there probably.

Are we really doing this already

This isn't an observation, but Dunn's annoyance about the draft speculation seems more likely to come from town than scum. Stuff like drafts are scum's best friend because they can very easily distract an entire thread from doing actual scumhunting.

We're up to 5 posts where Bell directly interacts with a tree stump, so far, in case anyone was wondering

This qualifies. He's calling out Bell on a behavior that simply isn't helpful for town.

Okay, there's a bit less than I thought, but I still feel pretty confident that he's town.

Dunn SRs Ircher and Ircher TRs Dunn.

Huh? I'm pretty sure Dunnstral townreads me at this post. He has at no point expressed an indication that he scumreads me (up to this point in the thread.)

Too many peoples are TRing Dunn

Quantify "too many". Last I remembered, the majority of people do not have a positive read on Dunnstral at this time.

Maybe me confbiasing but methinks me right

I think you should reevaluate more objectively. Try to keep your natural tendency to OMGUS people who express a read you disagree with to a minimum.

Called me out for voting sir easy bake when Dunstral did the exact same thing.

This is true, but I believe Dunnstral did it a bit later. Also, looking at 834 again, it's a bit different because I think he's trying to get DEB to vote DEB. Regardless, I've been townreading Dunnstral most of the game whereas I've been scumreading you most of the game. It's a double standard, I know, but it does mean I give Dunnstral the benefit of the doubt here as compared to you.

Why? Because I'm an asshole to Creature or because my vote looks opportunistic on Ircher?

the latter

~mist

I agree with this take btw.

Ircher i have an important question for you
are you aware that Ydrasse and i's early 1v1 was in jest or are you taking it at face value

@Pichu:

Eh, it's kinda middle road. The first part I think I remember to be clearly in jest, but I didn't consider the whole thing to be in jest. The overall tone of it though still feels off regardless.

Well, I want to start making some headway on an actual wagon.

That's fair.

I want to do it on a slot that Pook wants us to focus on.

Stuff like this continues to be the reason I think the town treestump's suggestion was and still is a bad idea.

The reason is legit, even if it's the only reason I have.

It's also very generic.

[Ircher]

That's to the bottom of page 60.

[Ircher]

I provided some awhile ago. I guess I can provide a more comprehensive set.

Double the Trouble (Alisae and NorwegianboyEE) - Initially leaning scum, but I think it might just be the slot's abrasive nature, so I'm gonna town bin this slot actually. They've made some good observations.
Netflix and Chill (notscience and Brian Skies) - Town. Good takes in general.
Spiffeh - Maybe town? I'm worried about Spiffeh trying to pocket me/defending me because it will look good if I am eliminated and flip town. Nothing particularly scummy or townie that I've seen.
Creature - Not sure. I'm not super familiar with Creature's meta shift and haven't been deeply evaluating his posts. They always make me want to skim tbh.
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary) - Probably town, but has had a very bade case of OMGUS this game.
Ydrasse - Scum for reasons I've outlined earlier.
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet) - Maybe scum? There were some good observations about Tweet's tone earlier; it's a bit too formal.
pichu - Lean scum, but I may reevaluate this read at some point. I still think their early interaction with Ydrasse looked bad, but pichu looked better between the two. Has had a couple good takes since then.
Not Known 15 - No idea. Haven't seen too many posts from them. What U do know is that they're a rather serious and logical player.
Toogeloo - Not sure; slight twinge of scum maybe. Entrance was OK; hopping onto my wagon was kinda ehh.
MURDERCAT - Scum. I recently posted my thoughts on the matter.
Battle Mage - Maybe scum? I haven't read his recent posts, so it's too early for me to judge.
Bell - Lean scum. The way they pop in and out of the thread makes me think they have an ulterior motive.
Dr Easy Bake - Not sure but high scum equity. Refuses to play the game.
Dunnstral - Lean town. I gave some reasons in my last few posts.
mastina - Town. Generally bad takes from what I read, but she's definitely scumhunting and while she's efforted before as scum, it's still rather rare. I'll reevaluate when I have to.

[Ircher]

I provided some awhile ago. I guess I can provide a more comprehensive set.

Double the Trouble (Alisae and NorwegianboyEE) - Initially leaning scum, but I think it might just be the slot's abrasive nature, so I'm gonna town bin this slot actually. They've made some good observations.
Netflix and Chill (notscience and Brian Skies) - Town. Good takes in general.
Spiffeh - Maybe town? I'm worried about Spiffeh trying to pocket me/defending me because it will look good if I am eliminated and flip town. Nothing particularly scummy or townie that I've seen except for their take on my slot. (Paranoia aside, I don't think scum!Spiffeh is super incentivized to defend me as they have.)
Creature - Not sure. I'm not super familiar with Creature's meta shift and haven't been deeply evaluating his posts. They always make me want to skim tbh.
Polar Bear Express (Noraa and Gloria Cleary) - Probably town, but has had a very bade case of OMGUS this game.
Ydrasse - Scum for reasons I've outlined earlier.
Solstice (Mistyx and Morning Tweet) - Maybe scum? There were some good observations about Tweet's tone earlier; it's a bit too formal.
pichu - Lean scum, but I may reevaluate this read at some point. I still think their early interaction with Ydrasse looked bad, but pichu looked better between the two. Has had a couple good takes since then.
Not Known 15 - No idea. Haven't seen too many posts from them. What U do know is that they're a rather serious and logical player.
Toogeloo - Not sure; slight twinge of scum maybe. Entrance was OK; hopping onto my wagon was kinda ehh.
MURDERCAT - Scum. I recently posted my thoughts on the matter.
Battle Mage - Maybe scum? I haven't read his recent posts, so it's too early for me to judge.
Bell - Lean scum. The way they pop in and out of the thread makes me think they have an ulterior motive.
Dr Easy Bake - Not sure but high scum equity. Refuses to play the game.
Dunnstral - Lean town. I gave some reasons in my last few posts.
mastina - Town. Generally bad takes from what I read, but she's definitely scumhunting and while she's efforted before as scum, it's still rather rare. I'll reevaluate when I have to.

Quoting for pagetop. Also slight edit to Spiffeh read.

[Ircher]

yeah agree with this. Townpoints for Bell.

(In response to Bell's 158.) I'll point out that have similar takes as you isn't necessarily townie. I definitely wouldn't give Bell any town points for their post considering they decided to avoid actually justifying their position.

can someone give me a heads up if i get to -1 so i can claim? lol

ugh why do this

What kind of response was this? It's quite standard protocol to bold E-1 votes, so I don't get why MURDERCAT sees it as an excess burden here.

Battle Mage (1): mastina

Not Voting (2): Dr Easy Bake, Battle Mage

With 17 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

Deadline: 5 days, 3 hours, 50 minutes

Good job guys. No prods needed.

You have 1 vote on you?

This is a good point though; Battle Mage is a bit too self-focused when he's in no danger of dying. That said, it fits his personality.

ok as you can tell I've run out of steam...I'll keep going tomorrow until I catch up

Having read 27 pages, you didn't seem to contribute much.

the last time I saw DEB do this line of posting he was scum.

I've seen the opposite happen.

I don’t do that on D1, I’ll vote here.
VOTE: Ircher

@Dr Easy Bake

: So, was there a reason you voted me particularly here, or did you just draw names from a hat?

I guarantee Titus veto'd me first to ensure this wouldn't be a scum walkover

I'm pretty sure I asked this earlier, but it seems to have gotten lost in my walls.

Weren't the bans in the draft chosen randomly?

It allows the 1 conftown to choose the potential lim pool and control the agenda.

Yes, allowing the town treestump to control the lim pool and overall agenda is probably beneficial, but at the same time, don't you think it was a bit early (7+ days left out of a 10 day deadline) to choose a lim pool?

Pooky can also manipulate it to fk with scum expectations

Yeah, I don't really understand what you mean by this. Like if he's going to choose a lim pool, he should choose one that align with his thoughts (and maybe his fellow masons thoughts) rather than going for something surprising.

move the goalposts as he pleases to get as much info as possible.

Quite frankly, I think having the lim pool presented as early as it was generated the opposite outcome. Namely, the amount of info obtained has lessened because people stuck to talking about those four people rather than the player list at large.

I think both are mistaken, as they assume Pooky will actually just stick with that list of 4.

He can change it, yes, but at the same time, he can't really make major changes, or else people will think (fairly) that he's being rather whimsical. This also doesn't address the other issues like people using it as an excuse not to scumhunt elsewhere. Sure, their name MIGHT be added, but if the majority (or even a sizable minority) are doing it, it becomes hard to fault them for it. (Making the pool much larger is simply not an option as it basically dilutes all the benefits.)

(in a way nobody else would possibly know)?

I'd be amazed if you could do that without breaking the cryptography rule.

Out of all the reasons to scumread me i didn’t expect that.

- Norwee

Show me these spammy posts?

- Norwee

This is the scummiest reaction possible. Town DT would not even question this(Dunn sums it up quite nicely next post). This looks like a question for the sake of a question than a question with real read intent.
My vote on DT is staying for the rest of the day unless someone does a scumslip. The rest of the three are in my null section.

I don't really agree that Double's reaction was scummy. It's true they have a rather high posting volume, but I think the noise ratio is a bit on the lower end, at least compared to other hyperposters in this game. Regardless, they are right that you should have better reasons to be scumreading them than just their posting volume.

In Stumpy we trust.

This'll actually be a problem if we allow it. It's going to be too easy to wash hands of responsibility or commitments if we defer to Pooky for everything. He should have a some say in lynched, but don't empower the slot too much because we'll get ambivalence from town to scum hunt, and we'll have scum just pushing Pook's agenda and looking good.

This post raises several good points that I 100% agree with.

I'm sure Pooky is working hard to solve the game so we don't have to do that much.

Translation:

I'm using the town!treestump as an excuse to do the minimal scumhunting necessary this game.

aw come on even on D1?

(MURDERCAT is like the perfect example as to why the lim pool idea, especially so early, was a bad idea.)

Reads wise you should have an idea on people like Spiffeh and mastina

(I'd give a small pass on not having a Spiffeh read, the reason being that they are a skilled enough player such that an early read may be hard to generate.)

I'm not convinced that mastina isn't scum and I know Spiffeh to be a strong player. In the middle isn't necessarily no read.

Eh, your reads list didn't really distinguish between null (no) and neutral (mixed) reads.

Dunn: Ali is scum
Ali: Explain yourself
Dunn says nothing
Ali: Well go on
Dunn says nothing
Ali: Well ig I have to suspect you now because I have no idea what the fuck ur doing
Dunn: You're only attacking the people who suspect you
Ali: The only person who fits under that category is you and I just want you to explain yourself
Dunn says nothing

holy shit like wtf?

This is fairly accurate as to what happened tbh. I would be interested in Double giving a more direct explanation on their scumread on Double than he has already.

@Those not on Ircher/Trouble/BM:

Which of the three would you want yeeted, GTH?

Battle Mage but that's cuz I'm townreading myself and Trouble (versus a still mostly null read on Battle Mage). (Also, BM is softing a PR, so.....)

@Ircher/Trouble/BM:

What do you think of each of the people voting you? Who is scummy and who is townie?

Ircher (6): Solstice, Netflix and Chill, MURDERCAT, Bell, Polar Bear Express, Dr Easy Bake

Solstice - Eh, don't recall the vote looking bad
Netflix - Town. They've done the best in terms of explaining their vote on me.
MURDERCAT - Scum. Vote was also bad as I already explained (materializing out of nowhere).
Bell - Scum; vote is kinda eh.
Polar Bear - Probably town. They keep flip-flopping their read on me though.
Dr Easy Bake - Vote was pretty scummy, but not out of the range of town!DEB.

Who would you like to add to the POE-4 if we do a rotation? Who would you like to remove? State a reason(1 submission each)

Add MURDERCAT for sure. They've yet to convince me they're actually scumhunting versus doing the minimum needed to survive. Probably remove Double the Trouble; I think people need more time to get an accurate read on that slot. (That being said, I townread Dunnstral more.)

But perhaps the biggest reason to vote for them is simply that they're annoying. They're annoying, and they're not particularly likely to be town.

Is the second half of your post based on draft speculation? Neither of these seem really good reasons for offing Double.

At bottom of page 65. Probably read more tonight.

[Ircher]

Official Vote Count 1.15

Deadline

: (expired on 2020-12-14 16:00:00)

I'm just going to point out: we still have over four days left. I would advise not rushing to a decision yet.

[Ircher]

MURDERCAT is near the top of the charts for slots active lurking in a scum-indicative way.

No I'm town

Then act like it. You've given me very little evidence you aren't just coasting this game.

Battle Mage himself admitted it's something he's never done before--and for good reason, because it is very much not in character with his towngame whatsoever.

I must've missed this. Do you have a quote where he claims he's never searched his name in a thread before? Edit: Never mind, he said so in 743. Still, I think you should ask the question as to how exactly does this benefit scum!Battle Mage? Like sure, there's plenty of reasons for scum!Battle Mage to do it, but you should weight it against the equally plentiful reasons for town!Battle Mage to do it.

And which alignment is Creature more likely to be when he's not invested in the game's outcome?

I realize his townplay has atrophied and his scumplay has improved.

But I would still expect the alignment he cares less as, to be scum.

I think we kinda agree on the premises here, but I would say I'm exercising more caution when reading Creature because his meta change has made him much harder to read. That is to say, yes, he's generally less invested as scum, but it's not a difference I think is significant enough to point to him likely being scum this game.

I consider this lazy-at-best, scum-at-worst considering that Norwegian is far from spammy; the spammy posts come from Alisae, who is very much not scum for that trait. (If anything, the opposite.)

(Referencing Not Known 15's 1446.) I think this is probably a good observation. I cannot say as to its accuracy as I lack the needed experience with both heads of Double. As a side comment not super related to this post, I think Not Known's posting has been pretty lackluster in general, but I cannot decide whether that's because he's scum, because he's overwhelmed by the thread pace, or something else.

Ircher's fluff and IioA within the walls of quotes don't really strike me as productive town posting and are more of a post quota filling thing.

There's very little fluff in my ISO. In fact,

@Toogeloo

, I would like you to quote what you think is fluffy about my ISO. As to the IIoA assertion, you may be right to an extent, but I don't think simply throwing out buzzwords helps your case on me. Last note: I think you are in part scumreading my style of posting this game, so I will reiterate that this quote wall style is quite common for me, and you can check my style here to other games I have listed on my wiki.

While you/Pooky are worth regarding, you and your masonry are not infallible, and it's important that we disregard your advice from time to time, and also equally important that we don't hinge the entire game on your say so.

I 100% agree with this.

But it does allow focus. Toogelo. And considering how most players seemed disinterested until now, and mainly posting fluff. It’s a good thing that Pooky alerted us to the issue at hand, which is solving. So i’m not seeing anything bad from this, even if our slot was put in there.

It does provide a certain degree of focus. I think my biggest issue with it was that it was given too soon. Waiting til the midpoint of the day would have been better as there would be more to go off of and everyone would have had a reasonable chance to participate.

Asking for a heads up if at L-1, proving that you're reading the thread because what good would this notification do for you if you weren't? (this is important enough of something that I'm going to requote that post to point it out since I missed this implication the first time).

I think you can loosely follow along with a thread without necessarily reading it. It is simple enough to scan the current page for votes and stuff in bold, so I wouldn't say the notification is useless.

So to reiterate.
Bad reads on 2-5 slots, where you do take back the bad read on one but leave the bad reads on the others.
Good reads on 4, later 5, slots.

Bad reads are rather subjective based on your own perspective and meta experience. I don't think having contrary reads is by itself an indication of scum. (That being said, I think many of the reads Battle Mage presented were on the thin side, so you may still have a point nonetheless.)

Why are people thinking this is in any way Battle Mage as town?
He's being lazy.

‪Personally, I'm trying to give him the benefit of the doubt. It's a large game, and the beginning of the game has a rather high noise ratio. Having reads on only half the slots in the game after 17 pages is a bit on the low end, but it doesn't seem too unreasonable (to come from town), especially if Battle Mage skimmed to some extent. As to being lazy, I do think I agree with that take‬, but laziness is not really a scum indicator. (It may be for some people, but I reckon in the vast majority of cases, it isn't.)

This post is indicative that Battle Mage is aware that Pooky made a pool of 4 players to eliminate within, containing both Ircher and Double the Trouble. It's a case of TMI given his stated narrative.

This is a valid point and probably the most conclusive of your points in your scum!Battle Mage case.

Both of these have much the same answer: different players with different playstyles.
I would expect Dunnstral to make the post he did and it not be a scum indicator for him.
I would expect Creature to be hard-disagreeing with Dunnstral if he were town especially given he himself is among the slots that were guilty of the thing Dunnstral was complaining about.
I said it was an incredibly bad take from Creature--not an incredibly bad take in general.

Fair, even if I don't necessarily agree. I agree that Creature likes to get his post count high etc., but I do think he also gets annoyed pretty easily by those kinds of things when others do it.

There's like zero reason for you not to share your reads. Stuff like this make me think you are scum, Murder.

People trying to get info out of me without engaging me are scummy

^

This kinda makes me think Bell and MURDERCAT are linked. I'm pretty sure this isn't the first nor the last time that Bell has implicitly defended MURDERCAT like this. (Defend is perhaps not he best word to use here.)

[It's maybe slightly worth noting Ircher didn't post like this (with the big quote stripes) in my last game with him, Jigsaw mafia -- he didn't effort too much there. Maybe cause he was a replacement though, and im not familiar with how he plays as scum anyway]

Grand Idea GPick is probably a better comparison, but I was more on-top of the game for that one. Jigsaw is quite a bit different because I replaced into a 100+ page game and decided it wasn't worth reading back through extensively.

Expand on your reason for the read change, if you will.

This is a fair point. I will note I forgot about the initial VT claim, so that wasn't factored in at the time. Aside from that, as I said earlier, I'm loosely following the thread, and I think at one point when I was looking at the active page, I didn't like one of your takes, so that's where the twinge came from. Some of your more recent takes have been better, so I'm gonna change my read to a "maybe town" read on your slot.

To the bottom of page 68.

[Ircher]

NotKnown15
MURDERCAT

Dr Easy Bake

Creature

Battle Mage
Flavor Leaf

I actually kinda doubt both Not Know 15 and Dr Easy Bake are scum. This is pure speculation, but I think Flavor Leaf would try to pick people who will have a sizable impact on the thread and with the ability to dictate the game's direction.

Battle Mage made nine content posts in another game before declaring V/LA in this game, then went back to that game to post more and still doing nothing.

While you do have a good point, it can be a bit tough to get acclimated to a game that just started versus say one that is nearly done. This isn't exactly an apples-to-apples comparison.

your 'case' appears to be that i posted in some games and not others whilst on VLA. Which is correct - I had some time, just not enough time to actively keep up with the majority so I cherry-picked ones where I thought my contribution would be most needed in that window. As you note, the game I posted most in was where I'd just counterclaimed doctor and town was about to lose.

For me at least, this is relatable and a valid defense from Battle Mage.

Basically, I'm sympathetic with the idea BM-scum is a lurker-scum, but judging me over 1 weekend when I was V/LA is a bit premature. Let me actually like catch up.

Yes, and this is why I think it's better to withhold judgement for awhile.

like why does Ircher as scum go against the "easy townreads" in pichu/Ydrasse/Polar if there's no chance he's getting an elim there anyway

(For the record, I haven't really at any point said I scumread the Polar Bear slot. I've said that they

might

be a good policy elimination due to noise ratio (not that I think policy eliminations are a good strategy in general), but not that I think they're scum.)

I'm more interested in the wagon analysis than the posting frequency argument.

Why aren't you interested in the posting frequency argument against Battle Mage? It's actually pretty strong (but not definitive).

VOTE: DEB

I've acknowledged how many people dislike this slot

I have also acknowledged how it has zero votes currently

I think the main reason DEB has virtually no votes is because votes there are basically wasted. They aren't going to convince DEB to put more effort in, and despite their scum equity, eliminating DEB would be like eliminating a lurker; it's the sort of compromise elimination you do when the thread can't collectively make up their mind.

There's also the fact that the town treestump asked people to vote in his pool of four, which DEB was not a part of.

At bottom of page 72. That's it for tonight.

[Ircher]

Ircher you are free to ask me questions at any time.

It's not questions I have. It's that I want to see you actually doing stuff without having to be nudged in that direction. So far, up to where I have read, you haven't shown any initiative on your own to solve this game.

[Ircher]

page 31 - random splurge from Creature, but doesn't take the ready bait of directing DEB's vote. Maybe Creature-town more likely to do so, I know I would have.
page 32 - random attack from Double Trouble on Netflix and Chill. they have been quiet though. possible distancing?
page 33 - i'd forgotten about the random Informed Townie claim by Netflix and Chill. yeah, it feels a bit gambity, and the sort of thing Flavor might instruct someone to do.
page 34 - i know i say this in every mastina game, but the idea someone is "locktown" because they share 1 read with you is...not good.
page 35 - post 872 by Double Trouble is a little close to the bone. Hard to fathom why a town hydra ever makes a post considering how they can artificially make themselves seem more town.
page 36 - post 886 reads as genuine exasperation by Bell. mild carefree townvibe from Spiffeh.

This is not really impressive. Some quotes or links to the posts in question would also have been nice to verify your assertions for ourselves.

But for teh record
Yes
I don’t like Noraa’s soft defense of battle mage like, at all, and if battle mage flips red it’s super suspect

I looked back at 1694 and 1763, and it does ping me a bit.

Don't forget: FL made a mistake by telling us they meta-ed everyone - it means that they'll likely be able to make meta less effective here.
As a result, you should throw all meta susceptible to FL intervention out of your reads

I don't like this post by Not Known 15. It's basically equivalent to saying we should ignore 90% of all evidence because Flavor Leaf might be manipulating it.

Ircher - I'd imagine more likely town than scum?

Ircher - DT could be S/S

Seriously???

page 51. I'm coming round to the idea that I'd like to elim a quieter low-profile slot today. seems to work a treat in large themes lately.

So basically DEB or Not Known 15. Well, Not Known 15 just had a string of bad posts, so neither are necessarily bad eliminations, but both would still amount to policy eliminations at this time. That's an issue since we won't gain much from the flip.

townpoints for Dunnstral. I still increasingly like Spiffeh even though he wants me dead.

This is kinda a misrepresentation of Spiffeh's position. They don't want you dead; they just don't have any incentive to townread you whereas they do for the other three in Pooky's PoE.

I know this isn't in the poe but I'm not sure I want to commit on BM/Ircher as of right now as I'm having second thoughts about Ircher.

I don't see how this is an issue, poe nonwithstanding. In fact, I'd rather you branch out your reads some more.

What do you think about Polar Bears BM?

they are fine

Fine? That's it? You don't have a more in-depth read on them?
---
A comment about page 76 in general: I think Battle Mage v. Double may be TvT actually. Looks like there is a lot of confirmation bias on both sides.

I also don't really buy them thinking I'd want to see other people vote them and 'get data' from that and just think they were distracting from a potential Ircher wagon.

Maybe I misread, but I don't think they were claiming that

you

would get data from their wagon. I think they were just happy you voted them because it led to other votes that they could analyze.

Xenoblade was a bit more effortless because I didnt have to catch up 70 odd pages that I didn't experience in REAL TIME.

I can relate to this. This thread continues to move at a pace I cannot keep up with.

I think Double the Trouble has been incredibly townie ever since being mentioned as part of the PoE elim list by Pooky

Like I expect scum!Alisae in that situation to just kinda freak out and tunnel someone else in that list and act super confident about getting a scum flip so e could brute eir way out of getting elimmed

But I feel like Alisae has kept an extremely level head and has kept sorting people as the priority which makes em more likely to be town

I think this is a good observation. (I admit I don't have the meta experience to verify it, but it seems reasonable enough.)

If either BM or Double or Ircher flip red, Murder looks so crappy for trying to start a vanity here.

Kinda feels like you are trying to tie me to something you know will flip red tbh

I thought it was a bad take as well. I do wish though that you popped in to say more than stuff like this that do really little to advance the game.

Alisae also backed off on Dunnstral, one of eir only options to push in order to not die today, after realizing myself and other players eir town reading are confidently town reading Dunny, when I'd expect scum!Alisae to continue pushing there purely to increase eir chance of survival

There's just a lot of avenues Alisae took that are the polar opposite to how I'd expect scum!Alisae to handle the situation eir in currently

This is also a good observation. I think scum!Double does have high incentives to survive the day, so I would expect them to take low-risk options (like keeping a scumread on Dunnstral) that give a high payout in terms of increased survival.

At bottom of page 78.

[Ircher]

This is probably gonna be a long post, so I've spoilered it in sections. I do expect you to read the post in its entirety at some point.

Spoiler: Posts 1951-1978

@Ircher

RE reads list
You have a lot of scum reads and scum leans, no? I count 8 people you seen actively worried about.

Yes, but it's Day 1. Things will become clearer on later days with more flips.

Gloria apparently is not giving this game her attention at all and generally when a hydra partner is mostly missing, that slot is more likely to be scum than town.

I don't really agree. One of the reasons people hydra is so that they don't have to constantly post like they do alone. Also, Noraa has mentioned multiple times that Gloria hasn't been feeling well, so it makes sense that Gloria would be in the thread less often.

Seriously, if I mapped out this slot's progression on me you would see some really strange red flags

I would like you to do this actually if you have the time. (Moreso for my benefit so that I don't have to wade through 100+ posts to find the relevant ones.)

Not Known 15 - Kill
- I've seen townies who are just bad at the game
- I've also seen scum pretend to be these kind of players
- I would kill it regardless

Meh, I don't find reads that amount to "policy eliminate this slot" very useful.

even the mastina read in 1817 kinda just feels agenda motivated
and their interactions with spiffeh about me are kinda bad :/

What do you mean by agenda driven here? Like, mastina is one of the biggest proponents of Battle Mage's execution. I think Battle Mage's scum read there is reactionary and OMGUSy in nature.

At this point in time, the day ended and the thread got locked. Since quoting locked threads isn't a possible and since using the PM button for quotes is ugly, I will be referencing post numbers in the remainder of this post and quoting text (with quote marks) as needed.

Spoiler: Pages 80-85

1992 by Dr Easy Bake: "What TV personalities are you familiar with" --> I would like for you to give some reads rather than filling the thread with noise. I would tolerate the occasional noise post if the majority of your posts were content, but when it's all fluff and noise, I am a bit annoyed since I've been perpetually behind this game.

2002 by Dr Easy Bake: "I guarantee you I’ll catch at least one scum based off of the D2 reactions to the D1 elimination and the NK." --> I'm gonna hold you to this. You better have something useful to say towards the beginning of D2.

2006 by Dr Easy Bake: "Despite my feelings about Double they’re disgustingly obvtowning up and down the thread." --> Noted. I'm not sure what to make of this read.

2007 by Solstice: "The last time i saw the "out of left field SvS take early D1, it was from scum. And I disagree with the reads, and i saw a lot of people suspecting Ircher. so good enough for me" --> Correct me if I'm wrong, but this sounds to me like "I saw scum do it once before, so scum must be the main ones who did this stuff." The rest of your read on me aside from the left field part sounds to me like just mindless sheeping of others. That isn't in itself a scum tell (not by a long shot), but it does make me wonder about the way you are approaching this game.

2012 by Solstice: "At this rate, I'm going to continue to null/SL right up until he's abt to be eliminated, where he'll do something emotional or otherwise towny, ill change my mind, then he'll die." --> This feels a little off and definitely a lazy way to approach the Battle Mage read.

2012 by Solstice: "[I think I should make my homework getting a real read on BM/Ircher and probably Double.]" --> Hold up, I thought you already had a read on me? What do you mean by you are going to get a "real read" on me?

2019 by Battle Mage: "surprised you have me as "maybe scum", when the reasons for my wagon generally go back to "I sheep mastina" and you recognise her takes are bad. You haven't given a reason for that read which I can recall as yet." --> Eh, "maybe scum" probably wasn't the proper wording back then. "Null with some scum equity" would be a more apt description (mainly the fact that your activity did have some issues like you posting so many times while V/LA. Not that I necessarily blame you for that, but it did hurt your credibility a little bit.)

2044 by Polar Bear Express: "We are not scum MC and I’m not liking you trying to drive a miselim on us." --> This may be confirmation bias creeping in, but honestly, I think Murder's push on your slot is rather awful. It seems to me that he's pushing your slot because he thinks he can get away with it rather than on any true merit of scum. One post is hardly a case or even compelling evidence, especially when it's mostly based on a tone read. (Granted, 1845 is probably one of Polar Bear's worst poss.)

2049 by Polar Bear Express: "This is what Murderkitty is trying to kill us over? When did not wanting to possibly risk miseliming a TPR get considered scummy?" --> I'm pretty sure it's a tonal read and not really based on the actual content of the post.

2061 by MURDERCAT: "Pretty sure you have to explicitly ask Titus this to get an answer. Or maybe Pooky knows?" --> (The question was more to the thread at large than at the moderator as everyone was assuming the mod chose them, but I guess in the end, I should've directed it to the moderator.)

2064 by MURDERCAT: "Do you think that BM, Ircher, and DT are all scum then?" --> Obviously not if you were reading her posts...

2081 by mastina: "Rare is the day that someone says my logic is fundamentally flawed, and then they accurately point out logical reasons that my logic is actually flawed--and when they actually do so, I will fully acknowledge them by owning up to having made a bad argument and listen to their point because of their genuinely good take." -->

@mastina:

I think a general flaw in your way of playing is that you see and express a lot things in black and white with an overwhelming degree of confidence. I feel your reads accuracy as well as your credibility would increase greatly if you took the time to consider the null and alternative hypotheses that do not align with your own alternative hypothesis, and weigh each of them carefully by their likelihood.

Like in this particular context, you decided ahead of time that Battle Mage was scum based on an initial impression and then went to great efforts to find evidence to support your case. I see very little evidence that you ever stopped and asked yourself, "Could this had come from town!Battle Mage?" Instead, you let yourself be overwhelmed by confirmation bias, and well... we saw how this particular instance turned out.

2085 by mastina: "Ever since I had the pleasure of playing with Fonz in that game, I have taken this to heart, and yes, it remains true to this day, and anecdotally I've noticed I follow it myself. (Where as scum when V/LA I use it as an excuse to not be around but as town when V/LA I still try to give something.)" --> While this might be a general trend, you can't just flat out ignore the alternative possibilities and the instances when town does this stuff.

2100 by Polar Bear Express: "I've decided to bow down to all of Gloria's reads, look from a different perspective, and see what comes of it bc I've been really over the top this game :/" --> Uh, we would still like for you to form your own reads, even if you defer a bit more to Gloria's reads.

2123 by Double the Trouble: "did you just defend battle mage for softing PR but not even read the arguements for why he was being pushed?" --> Yes, she did, but I think that post was a townie one from her.

At bottom of page 85.

Spoiler: Pages 86-90.4

2135 by Polar Bear Express: "Some moments I'm thinking I want to defend BM bc he just has to be town
Some moments I'm thinking I should vote BM bc he just has to be scum" This indecisiveness with regards to Battle Mage actually seems really strange. Double the Trouble's post right after sums up my impression of this post very accurately.

2145 by mastina: "And yet, people never cease to be surprised that I'm making reasonable and rational points in my cases." --> Perhaps this is the case because your points have a habit of being overblown and expressed with too much confidence.

2160 by mastina: "No. When you claim to have done an action you've never done before as town or scum, there is, very likely, an alignment-indicative reason for having done it for the first time." --> Is there actually any evidence in support of this? I don't think there is.

2172 by MURDERCAT: "BM I think you basically have to go at some point this game for multiple reasons." --> No, that's not how it works. Either you believe BM is scum and has to go, or you think he is town and let him live. If you think he is town, there is very little reason for you to think that we (the town) should eliminate him. Eliminating scum is

almost always

better than any alternative.

2192 by Polar Bear Express: "Like you've kinda been like 'BM is scummy. Let's lim Noraa today' In translation, 'I agree with consensus but I think we ought to not go with it' I don't think u've been indecisive or conflicted. I think you've been derailing in a very sneaky way." --> I get this impression too. Hence, MURDERCAT remains one of my top scumreads as of rn.

2206 by mastina: "The idea that I have bias in my reads is a scum narrative. (It is an argument almost exclusively made by scum." --> Except it's true. It's quite clear to me that ever since BM posted his first post, you have been biased against him this entire game. An unbiased person would weigh the alternative hypotheses against one's hypothesis and at least attempt to address/acknowledge some of the counterarguments to their case. You have done no such thing towards BM, at least as far as I can tell. (Also, tbf, you aren't the only one guilty of this. Double Trouble also decided upon seeing BM's first post that BM was scum, and nothing was gonna change that for them.)

2236 by mastina: "Yup, and which alignment do you think will contribute less when under this sort of pressure?" --> That's a loaded question. While it wasn't a point in Battle Mage's favor, it wasn't really a point against him because the first several pages also have a lot of noise. In addition, I have very little experience with Battle Mage, so I am wary of making a definitive conclusion too early; that is, the way he posted might just be his style. (And it seems it is.)

At start of post 2261 on page 91.

Spoiler: Pages 90.4-96

2261 by mastina: "While the majority of my content is outlining why you are scum, my posts are not exclusively about your scumness" --> This is false. Your last 10 posts have been exactly you outlining your case again and again.

2274 by Netflix and Chill: "I'm fine with the BM elimination if only for the Fonz quote. My other head feels better about this elimination than I do, but I think Mastina is town this game and am willing to trust her on this. Also, BM already claimed VT and running up another slot that may or may not be a town PR seems silly. And I think stalling to use up the full deadline is apathy-inducing and runs the risk of town getting stuck with poor compromise options which are likely to land on miselimination options due to lack of scum cooperation and is also silly." --> I actually don't like this post at all. 1) The Fonz quote, while it may contain a sliver of truth, ultimately isn't something that should be relied olone. There are just too many alternative explanations. 2) Deferring to mastina here just because you think she is town is actually bad, in part because it's obvious (to everyone except her) that her read on Battle Mage is biased. She can be town and yet have terrible reads/terrible cases. 3) The BM claimed VT thing is just pure nonsense. Sure, we probably don't want to force several slots to claim, but it is ridiculous to force town to only run up one slot and eliminate them if they are VT. That's just not something that happens in practice. 4) No one said anything about stalling to the deadline. I'm encouraging people not to rush and be hasty in making decisions; that's not equivalent to stalling.

Page 92 --> Mostly fluff with a twinge of MURDERCAT continuing to make comments that don't advance the game.

Page 93 --> More fluff and a nice comment from pichu.

Page 94 --> Even more fluff.

Page 95 --> Also pure fluff.

Page 96 --> More fluff.

At the bottom of page 96.

Also just a note: I saw the flips and have read some of the surrounding context.

[Ircher]

VOTE: MURDERCAT

[Ircher]

Page 97 --> About half of it is fluff. pichu and Battle Mage post some content but it's not super significant.

reads?
reads...
Bell is still kinda scummy
Solstice is unsure - i go back and forth
murdercat kinda sus
double is trouble
Creature is very slightly scummy
that sums up my feelings of scum equity in the playerlist

I like and agree with most of these reads. I don't really see what some others are seeing in Double; I've seen them engage in some confirmation bias, but they seem overall townie. I think when the slot disengaged from one of their tunnels was also a point towards town them. (Can't remember which slot was being tunneled though.)

kind of like she's trying to make it read like stream of consciousness but it doesn't sit quite right

@Morning: why did you abandon the formal/structured posting style that you started this game with?

This is a good point as well. My guess (and its pure conjecture) is that she is trying to overcompensate for getting called out for formality at the beginning of the game. Thus, that shift reads as a bit scummy to me.

Also like, you know I'm town right? And what I'm doing? Because I want you to trust me on this Noraa case, I don't want it turned around on me.

This feels super manipulative. I don't like it at all.

Noraa we need to end this day and get some flips and revisit fresh tomorrow. Vote BM.

I strongly disagree with this for the record. We had time; we weren't really at a consensus; and we lacked approval from the treestump.

Also, I feel the dynamics here with Battle Mage and Solstice wagon formation are off in some way. I'm not sure which slots look worse from it, but something does feel off.

I am but Pooky's loyal soldier

Translation: I plan on doing nothing useful unless nudged to do so by the treestump.

Look at this progression.

BM is town
to
emphasis on BM is pr
to
slight shad
to
ask for reads
to
BM is scummier than Ircher(with no vote on BM)
to
BM, I think Noraa is scummier

This isn't entirely accurate depiction, but reading the quoted posts in the post above, it comes fairly close.

Noraa we talked about this you can't just quote my iso you have to give reasons why it's scummy

She did. She elaborated in her following post that your progression was scummy.

He's obviously not going to explain his read on you if he thinks it's going to be a distraction to the leading wagons.

(Referring to MURDERCAT.) This is very much a problem because we shouldn't be focusing on the top two wagons at the exclusion of the rest of the playerlist.

I am reading your posts and giving them about as much thought as I am giving FLs.

Please tell me how this embodies a town mindset. In particular, you admit here that you've already decided that Noraa is scum, and thus, there is no need to engage with them. The thing is that unlike Flavor Leaf, you

don't know definitively

the alignment of Polar Bear Express. What if your read is incorrect? Don't you want a chance to correct yourself if it turns out your read is actually wrong? Ignoring her posts is not going to offer that opportunity.

I do respect the effort regardless of ur alignment tho.

You are a WIM monster just like myself but with more experience.

-nornor

I could use a reads update from you, as in a full reads list. It doesn't have to be long, but I want your positions clearly stated.

Dunn has disappeared off the face of the earth. Why is he a strong TR?

Did he disappear... or did the thread get spammed so much he got buried? I'm leaning towards the latter. Plus, having played with him before, he's not the kind of person who is always present in-thread. He comes and go, but generally posts a handful of times each day.

If they flip scum, definitely look at Ircher as having high partner equity.

(Referring to Not Known 15.) I guess it doesn't really matter since both flipped town, but this is a lolwat? kind of post for me. I don't see why Battle Mage would think Not Known 15 and I are connected.

At bottom of page 105.

[Ircher]

[BM, are you scum?]

~Morning

This is pure filler. It's been asked several times, and there's zero reason Morning Tweet should expect a different result. Doing the same thing over and over while expecting different result is pure insanity.

dude did you read your post? it was yuck. like doing everything possible to shade me without actually committing.

I glazed over most of Tweet's post, but this is the impression I got from like the last paragraph or two. Tweet never committed to a solid read in either direction.

[I just spent multiple hours reading and reviewing mastina's entire case for BM being scum because I previously was just dismissing it all -- which BM calls "smart" from me.]

Honestly, your post seemed rather long. It's true mastina has posted a lot about Battle Mage, but almost all of her posts boil down to either a) Battle Mage was actively lurking b) Battle Mage did something he never done before and town!BM has no incentive to do that or c) Battle Mage was present in his other games while not present in this game during his V/LA.

Morning's post was very very good. It is +++++town points for her.
BM shading this is a TERRIBLE look.
The main reason is effort. (ironic of me to say as I can be a WIM monster as scum but there's a difference.

I agree it showed a great degree of effort, but I am worried that Tweet might have invested too much effort into it.

Morning's analysis, as well as Ircher's analysis, of my posts, are precisely the type of engagement on my content that is a pro-town way to have analyzed the content critically, agreeing/disagreeing with it, putting actual thought into the validity or lack of it behind my points, and engaging me on it.

I will take your word for it here as like I said, I skimmed Tweet's post. Thus, in this case, Solstice's post is probably net +Town for me.

Spoiler: Not Known 15's Role PM - Roaming Doctor

(For the future, if you're a town doctor, you really shouldn't do risky stuff like hammering without warning. That's likely to get you outted or killed (by town) and is overall -Town EV.)

These are the reasons that Noraa is scum:

Thank you for finally doing something worthwhile on your own initiative.

Skim through posts 1-500 in each of those games. Notice how much more exaggerated Noraa is here?

It does look a bit exaggerated here.

Nothing in page 2 of the iso is anything like these first posts, suggesting to me that the tone is fake and she is having trouble keeping it up. Noraa is even aware of this and points it out:

I'm not definite about this. I do agree there is a shift and acknowledge you probably have much more experience with Noraa than I do. But at the same time, I think there's the possibility it might be that she is getting more serious about scumhunting as the day progresses, so the fluff naturally goes down some? I dunno, maybe that's a bit of a logical stretch for me to suggest.

In both cases, there is no actual analysis happening. Noraa is linking a lot of quotes, providing a superficial description of the events, and claiming that I am scum off them without actually providing any reasoning behind her claims just as she did in my last scum game with her.

I can see this to an extent, but is this unusual for her? You didn't link any of the cases she makes when she is town, so it's hard to tell whether this is truly a scum-indicative thing.

To me, this is behavior from someone who is over-informed and pushing something on the thread, not a townie who is trying to get back into the game.

A good amount of time passed since Noraa's post about Gloria and Gloria's first post. I think I can see where you are coming from, but I think even if you aren't super invested, you will probably care a lot about how your own slot is perceived by others.

This post by MURDERCAT though is probably the first town-indicative post I've seen from the slot. It's very possible I've been tunneling his slot a bit this game.

At the bottom of page 110. Oh hey, I'm only 5 pages behind now... With any luck, I'll be caught up by midnight.

[Ircher]

also if ur town, why are you trying to shut murder down.
Are you sure it wouldn't be better for you to wait and see how noraa reacts?

(This is a very good point.)

I saw a hint of the Creature I used to know later on in Day 1 but seeing as that didn't continue I think that was just in response to all the pressure he was receiving about his post count

Demotivated Creature = scum!Creature in my experience

I think I could support a Creature wagon; this is a valid line of argument, and Creature hasn't done much to change his enthusiasm. I still think the slot is overall null rn though. It's a lot harder to tell with Creature nowadays.

Her enthusiasm here is so transparent and after being scum with her in Xenoblade 2 I highly doubt she'd be this active and engaged unless she was town

This is a good point as well that I think I agree with.

Tbf, yes. He's been super townie otherwise and familiar with me in a way that I would expect from him as town.
I'm not going to ignore this cliff drive as being something other than it is tho.

Yeah, this seems really bad faith to me and not how someone with a town mindset would approach this.

For god's sake man, the BM mislynch could've been pretty preventable had I had the time to prevent it.

This post is kinda a red flag for me. Wasn't Creature on the wagon? If he felt so strongly, he probably had enough time to at least unvote. (Granted, he probably had other obligations, but my point remains.) Otherwise, it's quite easy to have this kind of take AFTER you see Battle Mage flip town.

[Overall I lean that this is a genuine case (although I am not certain yet), but I also do not think this is enough to say Noraabear is scum.]

This sums up my thoughts on that case very well actually. I'm starting to like the Solstice slot more.

what is the primary cause for you behind putting this much effort into a game? I've never seen you make posts this big before, at least I do not believe so]

Ultimately, my goal is at least for the short term get caught up. With a long thread, that necessitates a lot of effort.

I think it's different from other games because normally, I'm on rather on top of things and don't have so much of a backlog to wade through.

I'm really annoyed at the current gamestate apathy.

Apathy? I wouldn't call it that. It's not where it ought to be as too many people got caught in Battle Mage last day phase, but it isn't apathy.

Let's try to push something new:

VOTE: mastina

That's like one of the worst votes you could make. Why mastina?

I think she has been underwhelming this game and is also a potential pick.

If by underwhelming, you mean she has had several bad takes this game, then sure, I 100% agree with you. But at the same time, that is by no means uncharacteristic for mastina; quite the opposite in fact. The fact that she seems rather engaged and attempting to solve seems to me heavily biased in favor of her being town this game. Her likelihood of being picked is rather irrelevant in comparison.

And that makes me fully caught up.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Bell

I want to give Murder a chance in case I'm wrong after seeing that case Murder made.

Current solve is probably something like Bell + Creature + Dr Easy Bake? + Ydrasse?

Starting to think pichu is possibly town as well.

[Ircher]

I'm actually a big fan of your read lists Ircher

I might try a full reads list tomorrow or Monday. Depends on how many new pages form and what time I have.

[Ircher]

And I'm 14 pages behind again... Lovely.

2881 by Solstice: Tweet's evaluation of MURDERCAT's progression on Noraa --> I definitely agree here that Bell's characterization of MURDERCAT's progression on the slot wasn't very accurate. I also agree that the case seems rather genuine hence why I am willing to give MURDERCAT a chance to let me reevaluate him.

I simplify the image publicly, where I basically take shortcuts. I don't lay out all of the mental math I do which goes into showing the process behind me having reached my conclusions and considered other viewpoints and why I favor the one which I came up with. I put all that work in, but I do it in my head, rather than in the thread, with the thread being basically me outlining the final conclusion I came up with, skipping all of the intermediate steps where I did go through the effort of considering other possible takes, and mentally wrote the process for why they were less likely.

I can believe this actually. It may help though to include more of the intermediary thoughts because as you observe yourself, it is not obvious to other people that you do this. There is still the issue though that you tend to express reads with a high degree of confidence, and while it's good not to waver too much, it can also be useful to give the indication that it's possible you are wrong. (Also, don't feel compelled to respond here as this is rather a digression and is perhaps more suited elsewhere, but eh.)

I feel like this is an unfair take though I don't have any way of explaining that thought.

I kinda agree. Tone can be both hard to judge and hard to maintain. Though, even if the take is unfair or bad, what I am more interested in is whether it's a manufactured or genuine take. I think I can credibly see MURDERCAT believing this tone read to be a legit point in favor of scum!Noraa, and that's what matters.

So for this point, I can say I definitely disagree with MURDERCAT here and in fact, this looks cherry-picked. Something where he deliberately takes the parts most similar between games, while ignoring the surrounding areas that are different.

That is possible; I will have to reexamine the case and do more thorough research it seems.

I have a hard time reading both Solstice and Irchers posts. They are so annoyingly long.

Read them the same way you read mastina's post: slowly. Take notes if you need to. I think this style is better than the alternative of posting every comment as a separate post.

The game is boring

Okay, why is the game boring to you? Why aren't you invested in the game? Is it because the game is moving too fast? Too much noise relative to content? You're scum and already know the answers? Something else?

Can we not keep pushing the exact same people who we know will flip town just like BM did?

Is this really what is happening? Very few people talked about Bell yesterday, so certainly you aren't referring to that wagon. MURDERCAT posted his Noraa case, but I don't think people were really pushing against her until this day phase. So, I'm confused as to why you think we're all pushing the same people again.

How come there's a little lag in your posts Pichu?
It's not scummy, but I feel like you post to a different rhythm and it's kind of disorienting.

This comes across to me as a rather bad faith take. And though you claim that pichu isn't scummy for it, this feels like the kind of thing scum would post to shade a player.

I'm taking a break from this game, let me know when you guys decide you want to elim scum

Have you always had such focused reads? What I mean is that you seem to focus on maybe a very small subset of this game's player list, and anything from outside that subset you seem to be willfully ignoring/not evaluating. Like right here where you decide that since people aren't as confident on scum!Noraa rn, you might as well just leave and ignore the game.

far too confident

(About 277.) That's not something I caught the first time I read it, but looking at it again, that does seem unusually confident.

Overall, I really like the case pichu gives on Bell here and agree on many of the points brought up like how 2777 was a nonsensical progression especially from a town-aligned player.

HOMICDEHYENE is acting very town

I have no idea who you are referring to here. Also think this post from Dr Easy Bake might be +Town points for them? Since it actually has solving content? Idk, I haven't really seem their scum meta, but this seems a good sign at least.

Oh yeah, that’s an real good point for why Bell’s scumread of MC is fake. The "you were towny otherwise" part.
Apparently the case Bell didn’t read completely turned his read 180 on Murdercat and made Bell feel compelled to immediately vote them.

- Norwee

I think my one reservation (and a not particularly strong one at that) about this particular part of the case is that it seems a move "too scummy to be scum" to make. Like I think any reasonable person (and Bell seems a reasonable person) would realize that that reads progression is going to draw several eyebrows when posted, so I feel scum!Bell would be more inclined to make up some other reasons for scum!Murder than admit that outright. I still largely agree with the case though and think there are other issues with the play, but I am just pointing out one area where perhaps we're reading into it too much.

At bottom of page 120. The last 5 pages were slow to read because there were so many cases. So that leaves me 10 pages or so behind for tomorrow. I'll still try to give a full reads list tomorrow even if I'm still behind on the thread.

[Ircher]

@Ircher, why are you scum reading me?

(Note: I searched my username to find this post.) Main reason is that I think you were very under the radar Day 1. That might not seem that big of a deal, but I think it holds weight as it suggests you aren't really looking for scum; rather, you are going through the motions. pichu has stated many of the other reasons already and in a more eloquent way than I likely would have. That's the gist of it anyway.

[Ircher]

I have no idea who you are referring to here.

Me. And I am back, who do you want me to give a read on?

Let's go with Spiffeh and Creature.

[Ircher]

Can you go in more detail about Spiffeh? I think he has posted some townie things/good takes, vut I don't think he's done anything that points strongly in favor of town!him.

[Ircher]

Reads are up to bottom of page 120

(and a tiny bit of 130/131).

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%): Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

mastina (+88%): mastina has a reputation for being less involved in games where she is scum. That alone I think makes picking mastina a risky play for Flavor Leaf. Aside from that, while mastina has had several bad takes this game (especially day 1), she is engaged (which again tends to go against her scum meta) and seems to genuinely believe in her reads (as opposed to making them up as it suits her.)

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Polar Bear Express (+62%): I think MURDERCAT's case had some merit, but overall, I think it's unlikely Noraa is scum here based on her engagement level. I will note she hasn't given too many reads that don't boil down to OMGUS, and that is a potential red flag.

Neutral Town

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

Pichu (+49%): I haven't really reevaluated the initial thing that made me scumread this slot (the initial interaction with Ydrasse), but I think most of things pichu has done since then have been town indicative for them. I especially liked their Bell case, and I get the general feeling they are solving here.

Solstice (+46%): I am actually not really sure how to read this slot. I think Tweet's initial posts felt a bit out of place and that Tweet possibly overcompensated later when Tweet was called out for it. That said, I like how Tweet engaged with the various cases that have come up in this game.

Dunnstral (+44%): I think he had some good takes and observations early on as I mentioned to MURDERCAT earlier such as 180. He has mentioned several times that the thread is hard to read (such as in 1107), and while I to an extent agree (at least at the time frame where Dunnstral was making this argument), it's possible Dunnstral is using it as a bit of a smokescreen to avoid doing actual work. A lot of his reads seem to go against the grain early on, and I also consider that a plus. There's also Double v. Dunnstral which I think comes across as genuine from both sides. Overall, this is still a townread but perhaps not as strong as before.

Double the Trouble (+43%): I think their general reads and trajectory suggests they are town, andI have mostly liked their interactions, but at the same time, I think they are the kind of players that I will just glaze over and auto-townread.

Spiffeh (+31%): I am actually super paranoid about this slot right now. As I said, they haven't done anything that strongly point to them being town, and I think that's a ref flag given that Spiffeh is a pretty good scumhunter. I wouldn't advocate eliminating this slot anytime soon because I have liked their general takes and reads, but I think it's important to keep a close eye on the slot.

Null

(0%-30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Toogeloo (+15%): They claimed VT in their first post, which has a higher likelihood of coming from town. I also like their interactions with Noraa around 562. They seem genuinely frustrated there. The vote hop in 1485 does seem a bit opportunistic, but not majorly so. There are plenty of other possibilities. 1642 kinda makes me think Toogeloo isn't really reading/scumhunting. Overall, really hard to tell with slot; I would like for them to participate a bit more.

Dr Easy Bake (+2%): The fact that they did nothing Day 1 makes it really hard to have a read on them. Their day 2 posts seem to be a somewhat good sign, but this slot also has very high scum equity still.

Ydrasse (-8%): This is rather a lazy read, but there is so much fluff that it's hard to find any content from the slot. Aside from that, there was the initial interaction I scumread them for, but I don't feel as strongly about that anymore. I need to potentially look at it again. I haven't seen anything of significance since hence why I have almost no read on the slot.

Neutral Scum

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

MURDERCAT (-49%): My main issue with this slot is that it doesn't really seem MURDERCAT is solving. Rather, he seems to only do stuff when prompted or nudged in a direction. It's a general vibe from his posts not tied to any particular post of his. I do think his Noraa case is +town equity for him, but it's not enough by itself to change my read. It is however enough for me to reconsider and entertain the notion that I am to an extent tunneling this slot. The reads he gave in 3223 and 3225 support my idea; they are rather weak and suggests he hasn't been paying much attention to them at all. Also, Creature is disengaged, not inactive. That's actually a big difference.

Creature (-58%): This slot was a solid null day 1 mainly because I was wary of jumping the gun so to speak. Creature is fairly active in this game, but he is also rather disengaged, and that tends to be scum indicative for him. 2785 looks really bad considering he didn't express any doubt before then. 2794 and 2842 are nonsensical takes that make me think Creature is pushing an agenda here. I think 2917 might be a comment from town!Creature, but at the same time, it's not really a comment that makes sense to me in the context of this game. Overall, the disengagement and bad/nonsensical takes Day 2 are making me lean towards scum here.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)
Bell (-67%) - Lots of things here that catch my attention. The first is the unexplainably strongtown read on Noraa and the fact that Bell immediately and super aggressively scum reads anyone who dares to espouse even a slight read to the contrary. 904 is actually just flat out weird; while it's fine to respond to greetings, the lateness apology feels ill-placed. I made a comment about 780 being a bad take because many of the people mentioned were "easy targets" so as to say. His response is in 1441. I still don't think that counters the "easy to make takes" aspect of it. I also don't like the last line as that feels like shade. Overall, Bell expresses many overly strong positions, but otherwise, he doesn't seem engaged or really trying to solve the game. Hence my "under the radar" comment earlier.

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this reads list

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null section contains both townreads and scumreads, and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a quadratic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be less than the difference between 30% and 60%.

[Ircher]

Pages 121-123 are mostly fluff / noise.

Maybe we can take this moment to finally solve the game instead of fucking around like some fucking bonobos

Be the change you want to see. Your post is just as much noise as the rest.

just breathing some life into the game Morning

Good initiative, but maybe we should be doing something?

Weren't you complaining about it a page or two ago?

We could start from a scum!Bell world. Who are their partners?

Assumptions are fine and all, but I think it would be more useful to hear

your

thoughts on Bell. Like, if you don't believe Bell is scum (and I kind of get that impression since most of your posts Day 2 to this point seem to ignore it or complain about the game state in general), it does you no good to speculate on potential Bell partners.

I think post #2992 in the context of the previous one is slightly >rand scum for dunn and >rand town for double trouble

I feel like FL is slightly more likely to correct double trouble if double trouble is town and dunn is scum, but I'm reading into the WIFOM further than MT is comfortable with

This reading of Flavor Leaf's posts is just pure speculation, so I would be inclined to discard it altogether.

Is Spiffeh a known (or a lesser known) good scum player?]

I know for sure Spiffeh was at least in the running for Paragon once. As to scum skill level, I would like to think Spiffeh is at least a competent scum player, and I'd imagine that they are actually a pretty good one given their skills as town (as some skills are shared between the two alignments.) Like I've said several times by this point, I don't think Spiffeh has done anything that really falls outside their "comfort zone" so to speak. If I remember correctly, Spiffeh was mafia in the Defcon game that they referred to earlier this game (to support their townread on me.) You should be able to find it on my wiki page. It's pretty old, but it may give you an idea of scum!Spiffeh.

Someone explain why Bell hard defends Noraa unless they are scum together
As in, if Bell is scum, how is Noraa town

Yes, it's called White Knighting/pocketing/buddying. Take your pick as you please, but in all instances, scum have good incentive to do this, especially if the townread ends up reciprocated.

You didn't push me. I spent upwards of 8 hours telling you to your face what the truth was and it didn't matter. Call it AtE or what not. But the facts are the facts and you saying you weren't voting me in that at the end of day is just massaging your own play to look better in hindsight as a form of ego protection.

Why is the Forest Fire game or whatever such a big deal to you? I would think that if you were town here, you would spend more time talking about this game and your play here rather than talking about your play there and pichu's reads there. Also the fact that you refuse to even skim the case and instead just assume it's the same as another game doesn't feel like a town mindset to me.

At bottom of page 127.

[Ircher]

ircher/someone else who's townreading DEB, can you talk to me about what you like about their D2 posting?

~mist

Bell (5): Ircher, Double the Trouble, pichu, Solstice, Ydrasse

look how good this wagon is
it has everyone's favourite townreads on there

Yeah, I agree. The wagon looks pretty good.

[Sure you aren't letting the confirm bias set in just a little?]

Tbf to pichu, I don't think any of Bell's recent posts give incentive to reconsider. Why should pichu reconsider when Bell decides he is going to ignore pichu's case entirely? Especially when the reason for ignoring is for some game that is not in the recent past?

Nothing about Bell's posts since pichu's case have struck me as town.

I just need to convince others that you're wrong, but I'm not gunna do that by arguing with you about how wrong you are.

You're also not going to do that by engaging in antitown behavior.

I have no reason to scum read him at the moment other than being generally inactive but he's in the poe, similar to DEB

This was in my reads list, but I want to reiterate: Creature has /not/ been inactive this game. Not even close; maybe he seems comparatively inactive when we have several people with >200 post counts, but he has definitely had a significance presence in-thread, much unlike DEB. No, Creature has been /disengaged/ this game, which is a completely different aspect. This suggests that MURDERCAT isn't really paying attention to the thread outside the few slots he has to give reads on (e.g.: the poe-4 yesterday) and the Noraa slot.

It's due to interactions with other players I am town reading

@MURDERCAT:

A bit late, I know. But do you have any specific examples of interactions that you town read from Spiffeh.

K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

OK.

imagine targetting the player that claims VT as a detective
holy shit

Detective only checks if they've killed or not, vt claim doesn't factor in

(Yeah, the target having claimed VT isn't really a problem since scum can multitask regardless.) I do think Dunnstral's timing here is a bit weird.

That or you send someone like Spiffeh who would reasonably not be targetted by tracks or anything that investigates actions like a detective due to the fact that they had a really good d1 if they're scum.

On the contrary, Spiffeh would be one of the perfect investigative targets this game because of Spiffeh's potential to be really good at scum.

The claim itself is believable, despite your reservations. i think the target is fine, you talking about what scum would do is your opinion.

It's believable, but marginally so especially since there don't appear to be any crumbs. I would still probably support eliminating them despite the claim, though maybe a bit less strongly.

I did ask just to let me solve and to wait up. until day end. Has anyone actually examined peope's actions around the flipped players yet.

What are you expecting there? Netflix and Chill was an obvious kill; I think everyone agrees there. Not Known 15 is a pretty apparent vigshot after that hammer. Battle Mage flipping town I guess would generate the most reactions, but quite frankly, people don't react too much to flips. The reactions to Battle Mage's flip have been the pretty standard "Oh I was wrong I should reevaluate" reactions. Well, except for Creature; Creature had that "Battle Mage was obvtown/I could've stopped the mislim if I had more time" response, so maybe there is something somewhat useful there.

It's optimal to trust Bell's claim for now. We should have at least three other scum around.

Eh, I guess. Absent any counterclaims anyway. (But my impression is that there was a counterclaim later in the day from loosely following along, so... I don't think this post applies anymore.)

I know you are voting town rn. You already voted for BM who flipped town, DT and Solstice who I both townread and Ircher who may be the only scum you ever voted all game.

Wait, when did Spiffeh vote me? I thought he was town reading me practically the entire game.

Also Spiffeh and mastina really looking like scum.

What looks like scum from mastina?

I could have forgiven you and mastina for the terrible BM mislynch but it's looking like none of you are really trying to find scum but just follow the same agenda established D1.

You keep saying this, but you haven't really given any indication as to what you mean by this.

I have the info that I am town and hence the info that you and mastina are pushing an agenda. I'm seeing zero reevaluation from both of you and hence looks like scum conformity to a terrible gamestate for town.

Lolwat? This feels so much like something scum would say. Town would entertain to a greater extent the possibility that Spiffeh/mastina have wrong reads. mastina also did for the record reevaluate. Maybe not all her reads, but she realized she was short a few scum, so she had to reevaluate her town reads at least.

Why would creature scum ever defend Bell here?

Can we stop asking questions like this? All this leads to is speculation; there are plenty reasons why scum would do this and plenty of reasons why town would do this.

I agree we should probably let Bell live a day FWIW

Counterclaims aside, I think one issue with Bell's claim is that Bell could be left alive for several days, and Bell could validly claim they are still alive because scum think Bell is still able to be limmed despite the claim. Furthermore, the role isn't super useful for town.

This wagon comp is bad, I don't like it. Unvote.

You think it's bad? Which votes (besides Toogeloo's) do you not like?

I am serious it is almost worthy flashwagoning Toogeloo for that post alone

I'm not particularly convinced. Can you explain a bit more what makes that post exceptionally bad (as opposed to just bad which wouldn't warrant a flash wagon by itself.)

It's an excuse to change targets tomorrow because she knows Bell is flipping town

Okay, now this suggests you are townreading Bell. I do not particularly remember your thoughts on Bell prior to this post, but I would like to know what you are seeing in Bell that makes you think they are likely to flip town here.

ircher/someone else who's townreading DEB, can you talk to me about what you like about their D2 posting?

~mist

So day 1, DEB just decided to fluff/otherwise not engage with the game. That's normal for them. Come day 2, DEB is actually showing signs of doing stuff, and that looks good comparatively. I think scum!DEB would be okay with continuing his D1 behavior for the most part. Take 2970 for instance. I think that post has a higher level of coming from town because I think DEB had to actually read the game (at least from the day 2 start) to make that post. Anyway, I'm making this sound more confident than I actually am; as evidenced by my reads list, DEB is very much still a null read for me. It's just this one little thing that very slightly tips the scale in favor of town.

At bottom of page 135.

[Ircher]

If he's not a mason btw, he is probably scum.

pichu? OK.

you're good at this wim thing despite everything i'll give you that
i'm gonna keep pushing you until i convince enough people though
pooky even declared a THUNDERNUKE and people aren't piling on
you're on L-3 i think now?
if anything that's indicative of a lot

Eh, I can understand with so many votes already, people are slightly less inclined to vote there. After all, we do not want another quickhammer like D1, and while Pooky may have blessed it, Pooky probably does want to do something with it before the lim.

You ever gunna let me get back to that reread?
Or are you both so hungry for control that you're afraid I'll obv town if I keep posting and solving and posting some more?

You could just... not respond? It's clear y'all aren't going to convince each other.

Why are you so angry, like it’s just a game.

(I have to agree with this...)

#313: jesus why are people tring ircher for this at the time.

Most people weren't? I guess Polar Bear did, but Netflix and many others still didn't like it.

K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

Hol up y'all, what is the chance that there are two detectives in this game?
With this many players is that possible?
I don't really deal with too much setup spec and my modded games are nuts so I have no reference for tamer games.

The chances are I would imagine pretty low. Especially with the recent trend to have less hard guilties in games. I am assuming this is a counterclaim.

To the bottom of page 139. That's it for tonight.

[Ircher]

Eh I think tracker is better in this setup actually since we have a vig. I'm gonna imagine vig shots are going to be easy to determine, so scum can fakeclaim they are vig and get the shots right. That'll still get them killed probably, but it buys them some time whereas a tracker guilty will be harder to escape.

[Ircher]

I think Spiffeh is an okay shot, but there are probably better shots. Like Toogeloo for instance.

[Ircher]

I feel Creature gets limmed eventually anyway. Generally, vigs should shoot within the set of null reads. Toog should definitely be considered for a vig shot. I admit I'm not sure who else really qualifies as a good vig shot rn; DEB is out due to the PR claim.

Also on second thought, Spiffeh is probably better saved as a late game vig shot. There's still a good chance he's town here, and I think Spiffeh's potential (as both alignments) isn't something we should waste too early here.

[Ircher]

Ok, maybe I'll try to work with Spiffeh for now if he ever shows up and shows interested in actually finding scum.

This comes out of nowhere? Why starting at this point and not say earlier? Why Spiffeh in particular?

This feels very townie. Not sure if it will matter though.

I disagree. Bell's actions post-claim do not seem to be in accordance with what Bell wrote. As they say, "actions speak louder than words." If Bell puts those words in action, maybe I will reconsider.

It sounds like basically just as useful as a like tracker which is pretty powerful.,

(Side tangent: Contrary to popular belief, trackers actually aren't that strong especially in large games. They are only strong late game when only one scum is alive.)
---
Honestly not sure what pichu is trying to accomplish talking to the scum treestump. It's all WIFOM, and Flavor Leaf didn't even give clear answers... SO it just ends up cluttering up the thread.

i’m full of love and warmth and no one ever recognizes that,

I would like to see a bit less fluff and a bit more content/solving from your slot. I currently have no idea what your reads are.

K, I'm detective.
N1 I investigated Toog who killed no one.
Good job everyone.
Good job.

This is, at the very least: a plausible claim with a plausible target.

I just happen to not believe Bell's town from it.

In my opinion, the claim is utterly dead null. It does nothing to make Bell more scum, but also does nothing to make Bell more town.

So where does that leave me?

Still voting Bell because I'm scumreading him anyway.

I think this is a 100% reasonable take, and one that I myself agree with. Well for the most part anyway; the claim is technically +town equity for Bell but only marginally so.

Dunstral's talking to them like they're town here, there's no real sign in a change of an external disposition before this it's hard to know because of playstyle.

(About 1109.) I didn't get the impression that Dunnstral is treating Not Known as town here; it seems more like Dunnstral is making a normal (and polite) response that would be made to either alignment. (I guess if you are scum reading a player, you may be more dismissive, but politeness does not by any means imply you think the person you are talking to is town.)

@BELL you got some serious splaining to do.
I'm mad that you are making me sign a death warrant so early in the game, but no you aren't the detective, I am.
I'll give you the benefit for like two seconds if you can explain why you would fake claim detective.
Otherwise, I'm dropping the vote and hopefully the hammer.

Oksy, here is the actual CC post from DEB. The fact that DEB is giving the benefit of the doubt here is very +town equity for their slot. Scum!DEB benefits very little from such a move (as he's a goner regardless.)

(I would personally not give the benefit of a doubt in this instance, but eh...)

What, am I a rookie? Is Bell a Rookie?

You telling me that I would literally take any action at all on N1 as scum after claiming VT? Watchers and Trackers would keep me from ever taking an action after a post 1 VT claim let alone worrying about someone specifically checking I did the kill. Even more so with the fact that we know that scum can multitask.

This post pings me as a rather bad reaction to mastina's claim that Bell's claim was plausible. I think the thing that pings me the most is a tracker probably wouldn't outright target a VT claim; I almost certainly wouldn't. The fact that Toogeloo sees this as an attack on their skill level rather than as an alternative viewpoint is concerning to me.

[FL says "Town must have at least two of the same power role" or just straight up says 2 detectives.]

[i'm a little surprised no one thought of that in response to 3467. Like i doubt it, but stiiiill, it's the first thing that came to mind for me.]

It's possible I guess. But as I mentioned in an earlier post, double investigative role can be problematic balance-wise. It doesn't strike me as particularly likely.

Plus, if DEB and Bell are both town here, we're probably doomed anyway, so we might as well assume one is town and one is scum.

I checked Ircher last night, they're chill.
Bell, convince me not to vote you as lying scum pretending to save face by being detective.

Is there a particularly reason you chose me? I would like some insight on your current thoughts.

If Detective is as weak as the claim sounds, having two in town with the exact same modifiers doesn't seem implausible. You have to literally catch the killer that night, right?

In fact if you both are claiming the exact same thing on a rather obscure role, it seems more plausible you are both town.

No, not at all. I know that for the normal queue at least, putting two of the exact same role aside from either a) roles that are confirmed regardless (i.e.: friendly neighbor, innocent child) b) neighbors or c) masons is going to raise some eyebrows at a minimum. It's not particularly common especially when it comes to investigative roles. Part of this is due to how claims are treated; in the normal queue, it's generally accepted that there's only one of a precise role, so two people claiming the exact same role is generally considered a counterclaim or of opposite alignments at least. Even with roles like Fruit Vendor, there tends to be different modifiers if it's repeated. It's not amazingly rare, admittedly, but it is much rarer than what is typical.

So my thought on this is that it's probably a classic FL scum-scum claim where both players claiming the role are scum and neither is town.

I think the one hole is that the other has to explain why they are still alive. That doesn't sound like an easy task to me.

idk i've seen him like this as town as well which is the annoying thing
hence why i think it's nai
the constant whining about people needing to do more and his takes themselves - like the scumreads on you/spiffeh are scummy though

(This aligns with what I've observed from Creature.)

Lolol, you think I'm just gonna out it rn, I'm building a case.

Of course, I was sincere in my posts yesterday.
There's a lot of paperwork involved.
I have my catch, but I need to flesh out the evidence before I can present my findings.

I started late, but here are the obvious crumbs.

While my D1 may seem like a waste of time to many
I’m paying attention to every single way you react to me
Each detail is fused as a blueprint to solve this game
I am the greatest detective
I am better than Batman
I am Flavorman

Eh I think those crumbs could have been repurposed (if you get what I mean), BUT it's better than nothing, and it does make sense. I will also note both of those are from D2... not sure what to make of that.

At the bottom of page 147.

[Ircher]

[For Bell!scum and Easy!town, that means scum actually managed to fake claim like the one town PR remaining on accident + it was an obscure one]

I honestly don't think this is as unlikely as you are making it out to be. In this instance, Bell decided to fakeclaim, so they had to fakeclaim something. It can't be too strong (e.g.: doctor, cop) because that runs a high counterclaim risk. It also cannot be something too low impact like Fruit Vendor because it probably wouldn't save Bell. Detective, while obscure, is like a perfect fake claim in this scenario. It's obscurity makes it very unlikely that Bell gets counterclaimed.

like my first instinct right now is to ignore it and solve the game outside of {DEB, Bell}

We'll have to face it at some point though; it's almost a given those two slots are gonna solve each other by themselves. I think it's much better we figure it out today.

[That's easily more likely than scum accidentally claiming the one obscure PR town has left, don't you think? Do you disagree that FL could have caused town to have identical PRs?]

No, not at all. I would argue that two town detectives (with presumably the same modifiers) is /very unlikely/ and less likely than the scum!Bell, town!DEB scenario. See the reasons I outlined in my previous post (regarding how common it is in mini normals for two investigatives of the exact same form).

Reminder that the night kill thought Polar Bear was really town

Eh, this is kinda something but not really. I imagine Netflix was killed moreso for being universally townread rather than for their particular reads.

Unless someone helps me understand the claim probability stuff, i'd rather kill off Creature and see what happens next. I wouldnt do this if i wasn't also persuaded by Bell's AtE, i wont lie.

I don't disagree that Creature is scum here. On the flip side, Creature is a slot that's almost guaranteed to be gone before LimLo, so I don't see any particular need to rush getting rid of that slot. I also think we should resolve Bell v. DEB as soon as we can, so I think limming within the two is the better move.

(Also, I'm not town reading Bell's AtE at all.)

[FL can influence the setup to make that happen, and if two people have the same role then by definition it's more likely that this scenario would occur. Also if there's a duplicated role, it makes sense that it's not a vig or a doctor but a weakish investigative]

Personally, as scum, investigative would be the last kind of role that I would want duplicated. There are just so many more things that could go wrong for me as scum in that case. Aside from that, while we know scum and Flavor Leaf had influence over the setup including picking those rules, that still boils down to a guess, so there's still some unusualness to that scenario.

(Also, just going to note that if Bell does flip scum (like I think Bell will), Solstice looks a bit worse given the way their approaching the claims scenarios.)

I dunno. I'm town dude. I thought they were masons together, but what do I know.

I find it rather strange you were reading people as masons this game.

13 player normal games have like 5 PRs so no that isn't an exaggeration

(Actually 4 Town PRs is most typical, but 5 comes up from time to time especially if some of them are very weak (e.g.: Fruit Vendor).)

Bell is pretty town and it's pretty clear the town treestump doesn't know what they're doing

Having two of the same uncommon role claim in the game makes them both more likely to be true

What??? You're spouting nonsense here. I guess it's consistent with your earlier stances though.

Pichu's cases are easy to pick apart if you think about it.

Ah yes, you are confident that the case you decided not to read or engage with whatsoever is easy to pick apart.

I never want to WIM like this.

(Side Note: I keep saying the WIM abbreviation, but I don't know what it means or stands for.)

i advocate a spiffeh shot for how he's not really taken a stance on Bell other than saying my case is valid
and his main take today has been pushing Creature for lack of content

Not a good vig shot for tonight perhaps, but I think this is a good point regardless.

At bottom of page 155. That's it for tonight.

[Ircher]

Bell no result on Toog Night 1.
DEB no result on on Ircher Night 1.

I'm nitpicking, but it's an important one. They did not claim to receive "No Result" results as that implies they were blocked (or targeted an Ascetic). They claimed to receive "Has not killed yet" results.

Ok I find this logic compelling at least
I still don't really get what the fascination with creature is though.

What do you mean, "fascination with Creature?" I would like for you to look back at Creature's Day 2 posts and tell me what you think of them.

Still think we can just let night kills sort this out, scum can't let detective continue to live I think.

I'm going to point out that if we don't sort it today, we're potentially sorting them at LimLo, and that's far worse of a time. I think scum would be willing to risk a night or two to keep the two slots up in the air.

As much as I'm spiteful at everyone scum reading me for "aVoIdInG tHe BeLl WaGoN" even though I have been obviously town throughout the game

Maybe I forgot or haven't been paying enough attention, but I haven't seen this. I've seen people put you down as a poe-scum read, and I think that's perfectly reasonable given your scum equity (via the draft) and play so far in the game. (I imagine Pooky putting you in the vig pool is within the same line of thinking.)

As much as I'm spiteful at everyone scum reading me for "aVoIdInG tHe BeLl WaGoN" even though I have been obviously town throughout the game

Bell is probably scum and should be the vote for today

So you're spiteful for having been scumread because you avoided the Bell wagon, even though you actually admit Bell is likely scum.

K.

- Norwee

This really isn't fair to Spiffeh. As pichu just noted, he was town reading Bell for the most part up until Bell got CC'd by DEB.

So you have the burden of convincing me that
1. Noraa is town
and
2. It is important the Bell dies today in particular.

1) I don't think that's going to happen. You strongly believe in your scum read there.
2) Yes because we don't want to resolve this in LimLo, and Flavor Leaf likes to make higher risk plays. Keeping both alive for a night or two is one of those (and that potentially takes us to LimLo.)

You can't disappear after high activity day 1 leading to a mislynch. She's remained active but allowed her reads to ebb and flow with the current game state. One mislynch on Day 1 that she headlines, and her town reads are becoming scum reads because she can read the room and see what people want.

Yes, this is a thing townies do. It's called reevaluation. Aside from the last part (which is really subjective by the way), i don't see how this is scum-indicative /especially/ for someone like mastina who tends to do this reevaluation stuff a lot (as both alignments).

Look at your comment and look at what she is doing, and it actually matches up. She is actively lurking and letting the Bell/DEB thing happen, just like you think scum!mastina would.

She's not actively lurking at all, what?! Just because she isn't posting every 5 minutes doesn't mean she's lurking; I think she has made more posts than you have this day phase. Aside from that, I'm pretty sure she has given opinions on Bell, but she feels more strongly in Creature rn hence why she focuses her attention there.

It's actively lurking. Posting enough that she keeps a presence, but her posts amount to no push and actually acquiesce to the reads if the vocal majority while still looking like her own. She prepping for Day 3 already.

I'm gonna assume you are just throwing out buzzwords because this is not what active lurking means.

i think his posting this phase has been significantly better than d1 that's for sure.

And I think the exact opposite. His day 1 posting was eh but not really outside his town range. His Day 2 posts include several awful takes and constant rehashing of the nonsensical take that today is going to be a repeat of Day 1. Let's not forget the comment about saving Battle Mage as well.

At bottom of page 160.

[Ircher]

I'd vote for Ydrasse too

I suspect any number of Murdercat/Creature/Ydrasse right now

I think this is a good pool. High likelihood of 1/3. Good chance of 2/3. 3/3 is probably not likely.

What do you think I'm doing rn?

Honest answer: I think you're randomly quoting posts to look busy.

[Is there a point you're trying to make with that quote tower, Bell?]

This orecisely. Bell complained about my posts being IIoA, but what Bell is doing now seems to fall under that category as well.

i dont think he can ate this much as scum

by this much i mean he cant ate for shit as scum :/

I believe it's possible. I admit I don't really have much experience with Bell, so my take on this matters much less.

like I don't think bell would even care that much about living if he was a red role pm.

he'd just be like

"ok you guys got me"

I don't see why you think this.

I'm thinking about the WK15 votes early and whether scum would be apathetic about low hanging fruit. Or were kept off by Ircher.

???

i played with bell in antechamber and epilogue and both times he was very uncomfortable and low effort as scum.

I think you have to be a bit careful with meta ad it can and does warp and shift over time. It is even more likely to change if people strongly believe you have a particular habit as town or scum (like using excessive AtE.)

Do you think I'm just randomly quoting walls of brief mentions of NK15 in this huge game.

To an extent, yes, that's precisely what it seems you are doing.

lol. Pichu. You think I don't get mad at being scum read as town.
Meta fail.

MaybeI'm wrong, but I don't think that's what pichu is arguing. I think pichu is arguing that you do the stuff as scum /as well as/ town.

ON TOP OF THE WORLD
sorry Bell
i told you i was really confident when i made the case and i'm like 99% confident now

Yeah, my confidence on scum!Bell has increased significantly as well. It was like 67% (in magnitude); now, it's like 92% (in magnitude).

I looked through the mininormal list btw.
The closest I found was Mason, mason, town back up mason.

Masons/neighbors don't count for obvious reasons....

1) I think we should let Bell/DEB resolve through night actions, at least for now.
2) I really hate how people are jumping on Creature, it just feels icky to me.

1) No, we should resolve it today else it's likely we resolve it never.
2) Why does it feel icky? What have you liked from Creature D2?

Ircher this is slippery slope BS and you should know better. The decision is whether we elim them today or elim them tomorrow.

Okay, first of all, if we don't elim them today and they're both still alive tomorrow (highly probable from my pov), that basically turns tomorrow into a repeat of today. That's not productive at all. Furthermore, regardless of what the collective may decide here, there's going to people still focusing on Bell (and DEB) and distracting from whatever else we decide to do (and I wouldn't fault them for doing so). That's also not in town's interest because a split focus like that is bound to end in a suboptimal elimination. Last note: do you trust this game to follow through if we don't lim one of them today? I most certainly do not.

RE Creature, my read on them has nothing to do with their posts and everything about how people are approaching him,

This generally isn't a good reason for town reading a player especially when (at least imo) Creature's posts suggest otherwise.

To bottom of post 4227.

[Ircher]

I was talking game state wise. Most likely, both are inno results anyone which don't help much.

[Ircher]

Town!Bell and scum!DEB is by far the least likely scenario.

[Ircher]

I also don't like that DEB completely dipped from the thread.

Also, this isn't true. DEB's last post is only 13 hours ago. You can't expect people to be posting constantly throughout each IRL day.

[Ircher]

I also don't like that DEB completely dipped from the thread.

Also, this isn't true. DEB's last post is only 13 hours ago. You can't expect people to be posting constantly throughout each IRL day.

You are giving DEB a lot of credit for his nothing post while criticizing me about fluff the whole game. He hasn't posted meaningfully since claiming.

I have not criticized you for fluff. I have criticized you for lacking a sense of direction and initiative this game.

Anyway, you are to some extent right that DEB's last post was fluff. But honestly, I think it's understandable when you account for 1) DEB's general playstyle and 2) the fact that Bell is pretty much conf!scum from DEB's pov. Would it be great if DEB offered insight elsewhere? Yes, of course it would. Do I expect that from the slot in this situation? No, not really.

[Ircher]

With a roaming doc and two Cats that I know of, that is power-lite so far.

We also have a vigilante as evidenced by the NK15 kill and at least one mason in the setup.

[Ircher]

who even after being 'free' to scumhunt is producing lackluster scumhunting,

I think this is a key thing a lot of people are either missing or ignoring. Bell keeps promising to give reads of some sort, yet all Bell has done is use AtE and quote towers of posts without analyzing them at all. Bell has been doing that for the last several days, so I'm inclined to believe it's not just that he hasn't gotten enough time. What's more worrying is it seems Bell is discarding whatever reads they had to begin with before running up. I don't understand why Bell as town can't give reads of any kind at the time being.

Let's

unvote Bell

I think DEB is scum here. The pieces fit a lot better.

I'll explain in a bit.

I will look at your explanation before I judge too quickly here.

Bell played it super soft. so Flava Flav thought he was a mason, so he sent his mafia rolecop over to check Bell. Found out he was actually a detective.

Your first assumption here is that scum have a role cop. It's not impossible; in fact, it has a pretty good chance of being the case, but it is an assumption nonetheless.

Your second assumption here is that scum thought Bell was a mason and targeted Bell with said role cop. Again, it's perfectly plausible, but it's important we make these assumptions clear.

Flava Flav sends DEB to crumb detective ahead of Bell claiming detective in order to set up the CC.

Eh, I think this is kinda a stretch actually. It's possible I guess, but with regards to DEB not crumbing earlier, I can buy DEB not crumbing D1 simply because DEB decided they weren't going to do anything productive that day.

DEB is the probly the LHF of the Scum-Team so it makes sense for Flava Flav to send him to do the CC.

/IF/ DEB is scum, I totally agree with this.

Look at the timing and wording of the crumb. It doesn't even look like DEB wrote the crumb if you compare it to the rest of his ISO.

It probably help if you quoted the crumbs. I haven't looked at the surrounding context too carefully. I already remarked above why I don't think it's unreasomable town!DEB starts crumbing D2 rather than D1.

We elim DEB today, if DEB flips red vig kills ???
if DEB flips green, vig kills Bell?

Honestly, if Bell was more of a borderline read here or even a less confident scum read, I'd agree with this. But I think the odds are so in favor of scum!Bell here that I would rather lim Bell and be willing to vig DEB if I am wrong. From my pov, DEB looks pretty townie compared to Bell. DEB isn't using the AtE card, isn't making up excuses to avoid giving reads despite being requested so many times, and isn't posting several posts filled with nothing of substance. I think you are being drawn in by the AtE a bit too much here.

At bottom of post 4305.

[Ircher]

like if you are going to crumb your PR, you do it d1, you don't do it on d2. it makes no sense to me except as rolecop setting up a CC.

This assumes people are rational and act rationally. History and the media shows that this is not the case.

it's the extra little push that gets bell over the hump, and also after bell flips green DEB can always play the 2-detectives angle - the wifom trap is specifically "why would I counter-claim a dead man?"

That assumes people believe that. If Bell flips green, I highly doubt that DEB survives another day phase. Furthermore, if they are both town, we're probably doomed anyway. I would rather lim DEB anyway in that scenario rather than make the risky play of letting DEB live on the off-chance that both Bell and DEB are town.

Pooky I will vote for Dr Easy Bake if you take myself and noraa hydra out of the vig pool and replace them with Creature and another player of your choosing

Pooky should do this anyway tbh.

[Ok so Dr Easy did the crumbs on D2 when Bell had 3 votes, right after pichu dropped his big case. That is still some amount of foresight, as Creature had more votes at the time, but you could make a decent guess Bell would be put on stand either D2 or D3 from that, sure.]

Okay, did DEB post at a time significantly before then on Day 2? (As in say 2 hours or more earlier?) I ask as that might have been the first opportunity (on Day 2) for DEB to post (and thus make a crumb).

I'd be voting Creature here and it's specifically because of Creature being pretty transparently scum.

Yeah, I think Creature is probably a better lim than DEB here (as in more likely to flip scum), but on the flip side, I think it's in our best interests to lim one of {Bell, DEB} here. We should vig the other if we get a green flip.

I really don't see why MURDERCAT is getting townread.

I know others are, but I'm not townreading MURDERCAT here either. My solve rn is something like Bell + Creature + MURDERCAT + One of {Toogeloo, Spiffeh}.

like Creature is definitely LHF town-town - literally everybody wants him dead.

...I guess this is a good point. I don't think it acquits Creature by any means, but the fact that he's 1) counter to Bell (who I'm presuming is scum) and 2) a universal scum read does make his scum equity drop quite some.

DEB is so shady thoooo

Moreso than is normal for the slot? I'm not seeing it.

idk the way he gave Bell the benefit of the doubt and checked with everyone if two detectives was outrageous first seemed towny to me

A) that sounds like scum checking their exit plan to make sure people are open minded when bell flips town detective.

B) crumb timing on D2 after bell takes pressure makes more sense as scum pre-empting a claim by using rolecop info. If he was a real detective he should've crumbed on D1

C) His actual crumb doesn't look like it was written by him - word choice, sentence structure does not match with rest of ISO, strongly suspect Flava Flav wrote that crumb after original crumb was deemed "unsatisfactory".

D) This is exactly the kind of gambit Flava Flav loves pulling. Nothing Bell has done feels like it was coached by Flava Flav.

A) Disagree but the interpretation is subjective to a significant degree.
B) Already explained my thoughts on this.
C) I will look into this after I finish catching up again.
D) This assumes Flavor Leaf is playing a super active role in the game. It's entirely possible Flavor Leaf takes a bit more of a hands-off approach.

Are you saying you scumread both of them? What are the odds of having two scumwagons?

Not zero although admittedly not super high either. Maybe 25% chance to happen?

you know too many people in this game feel towny now
i think like 2 scum are playing very well probably

This has a good chance of being the case actually. I will concern myself with this possibility when we get there.

It’s possible he could be scum here but I agree with Pooky. You guys recall what I said about NK15? Well the same thing applies to Creature. I haven’t even heard a Creature scum case yet.

I don't know if mastina cased him, but I know she has explained why he is lockscum from her pov. I've also explained why I think he's scum multiple times that I do not care to repeat rn.

At bottom of page 175.

[Ircher]

Pooky has more info than us so why are you not following his lead?

Eh, he marginally has more info. That doesn't make his reads that much better.

Idk I thought the claims were switched or something

Like, for everyone scumreading players for being noncommittal on DEB/Bell.
That aren't scumreading Creature.

Creature's posts are literally as noncommittal as it gets.

He is adamantly refusing to take a stance on DEB/Bell at all.

Eh, it's a resurgence of apathetic Creature, which unfortunately isn't /too/ alignment-indicative. I agree he's done some scummy stuff this day phase but not committing to Bell or DEB isn't one of them. It's definitely a stance I could see town!Creature taking.

even under the assumption that one of them is town and the other is scum that means we have 3 other scum to find
~mist

Alternatively, both are scum and there's only 2 other scum to find.

With one being Creature.

And the last being one of {Toogeloo, MURDERCAT, Dunnstral}, with Dunnstral being the least-likely due to him being the most likely to be town.

But if there is 3 other scum to find due to only one of DEB/Bell being scum (I will never cease to be an advocate of it being both, but I'll play ball with entertaining the idea of DEB being town counterclaiming even if I personally feel both are scum), then I'd say it's both Toogeloo and MURDERCAT.

Bell + DEB + Creature + {Murder, Toogeloo, Dunnstral} seems a bit too easy. I kinda think there's a good chance of a deep wolf, but that's not really rooted in any form of reason.

I have my read on you and nothing you've said has changed it. It's out there if Pooky wants to explore it further.

Why not? I don’t think you’re giving my posts equal weight.

Tbf to Murder, Noraa has posted much more than you, so it makes sense her overall posting is assigned more weight as a result.

Todays pool is {Murder, Bell} and I dont think anything else is even remotely plausible.

We're definitely not limming Murder today. His scum equity is low compared to our other candidates. (Well, DEB is more of a null read for me, but we have the CC shenanigans that make DEB a better lim here than Murder.)

Bell is now at like 3 votes or something right? Or did gloria exaggerate it?

I'm pretty sure Gloria exaggerated.

hammer.

Someone please do [hammer Bell].

thats not exactly a question pichu

You should hammer.

Oh I see we have a hammer. Posting this now then. At bottom of 4454.

[Ircher]

Creature is a mason.

I kinda figured based on how the Pooky was approaching that slot. Anyway, sounds like a plan, so I'll be back in the morning and hopefully it'll be my turn by then.

[Ircher]

I kinda do want Pooky to come and confirm Double's post. Like, I don't think it's likely Flavor Leaf would pull a mason gambit, but I think it's somewhat possible, especially if Flavor Leaf thinks the situation looks really bad for his team.

[Ircher]

Are you going to claim?

[Ircher]

I think it's possible. Just like how it was possible for Bell to AtE all over the place.

[Ircher]

Yes.

[Ircher]

And now we wait for mastina. Hopefully she is around before midnight EDT so we can minimize how long this takes.

[Ircher]

*EST not EDT

[Ircher]

And now we wait for mastina. Hopefully she is around before midnight EST so we can minimize how long this takes.

(So it doesn't get buried.)

[Ircher]

ya know what Ircher, I'll give you the go ahead to just claim now.

I claim VT.

[Ircher]

Reads:

I will note that these reads were before the mason claim, but I didn't bother to change my reads list to account for that. (Yes, I did remove my read on pichu.) Aside from removing pichu, this does not encompass anything that has occurred Day 3. Some of this material is recycled from my last reads list.

Confirmed Town

(From my perspective) (98%-100% Confidence)
Ircher (100%): Role PM

Likely Town

(85%-97% Confidence)

mastina (+91%): mastina has a reputation for being less involved in games where she is scum. That alone I think makes picking mastina a risky play for Flavor Leaf. Aside from that, while mastina has had several bad takes this game (especially day 1), she is engaged (which again tends to go against her scum meta) and seems to genuinely believe in her reads (as opposed to making them up as it suits her.) Her D2 takes have been much better.

Polar Bear Express (+85%): I think MURDERCAT's case had some merit, but overall, I think it's unlikely Noraa is scum here based on her engagement level. I will note she hasn't given too many reads that don't boil down to OMGUS, and that is a potential red flag. The hydra dissonance with regards to voting isn't something I think comes from scum. Either you agree to bus or agree to defend, but flip-flopping not so much, especially if Flavor Leaf is orchestrating stuff.

Leaning Town

(60%-84% Confidence)

Neutral Town

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

Solstice (+52%):I think the way they handled the Bell wagon was reasonable. Most of Solstice's day 2 posting was good anyway.

user]Double the Trouble[/user] (+42%): I think their general reads and trajectory suggests they are town, and I have mostly liked their interactions, but at the same time, I think they are the kind of players that I will just glaze over and auto-townread.

Dunnstral (+37%): I think he had some good takes and observations early on as I mentioned to MURDERCAT earlier such as 180. He has mentioned several times that the thread is hard to read (such as in 1107), it's possible Dunnstral is using it as a bit of a smokescreen to avoid doing actual work. A lot of his reads seem to go against the grain early on, and I also consider that a plus. His Day 2 posting seemed a bit more lackluster (I think I've given him a bit too much of a free pass so to speak), and that makes me a bit suspicious of the slot. Overall, this is still a townread but not a particularly strong one.

Null

(0%-30% Confidence; No/Very Weak Read)

Spiffeh (+26%): I am actually super paranoid about this slot right now. As I said, they haven't done anything that strongly point to them being town, and I think that's a red flag given that Spiffeh is a pretty good scumhunter. l think it's important to keep a close eye on the slot. I am still not keen on eliminating him rn, but the concern about being in the vig pool D2 did not look good.

Dr Easy Bake (+25%): They did basically nothing Day 1, but I'm discounting that as part of Dr Easy Bake's style. Their day 2 posts seem to be a somewhat good sign, but this slot also has very high scum equity still. They also claimed Detective and Bell flipped scum, so that's +town points as well.

Neutral Scum

(31%-59% Confidence; Mixed Read or Diffident Read)

Toogeloo (-32%): They claimed VT in their first post, which has a higher likelihood of coming from town. I'm not really a fan of their stance to the Bell wagon, and I don't like their 3948 and 3951 as the statements made about mastina are strictly untrue/a huge stretch.

Creature (-50%): This slot was a solid null day 1 mainly because I was wary of jumping the gun so to speak. Creature is fairly active in this game, but he is also rather disengaged, and that tends to be scum indicative for him. 2785 looks really bad considering he didn't express any doubt before then. 2794 and 2842 are nonsensical takes that make me think Creature is pushing an agenda here. I think 2917 might be a comment from town!Creature, but at the same time, it's not really a comment that makes sense to me in the context of this game. Overall, the disengagement and bad/nonsensical takes Day 2 are making me lean towards scum here. The fact he was the counterwagon to flipped scum Bell does reduce his scum equity some.

MURDERCAT (-55%): I still kinda think this slot is wandering aimlessly without a sense of direction or purpose. I'm not really a fan of how he approached the Bell wagon especially in posts like 3910 and 4220. Including mastina in his solve in 3905 is rather worrying.

Leaning Scum

(60%-75% Confidence)

​​

Likely Scum

(76%-100% Confidence)

Spoiler: How to read this reads list

Players are placed in different sections based on my confidence in the read expressed as a percentage. A positive percentage indicates that I leans towards town on a player whereas a negative percentage indicates I lean towards scum on a player. Please note that the Null section contains both townreads and scumreads, and you must look a the sign of the percentage in parenthesis to determine which way I lean.

Confidence ratings are rough estimates (and somewhat arbitrary) and are relative to one another. In addition, they tend to be scored on a quadratic scale versus a linear scale; in other words, the difference between 0% and 30% tends to be less than the difference between 30% and 60%.

Solve rn is probably Toogeloo + 1 of {Spiffeh, Dunnstral} + 1 of {Ydrasse, Dr Easy Bake}.

[Ircher]

ircher, where would ydrasse go in that list?

~mist

It was a cut paste issue. I think I forgot to paste after cutting. Ydrasse would be between Double and Solstice, probably something like +46% confidence.

[Ircher]

Okay so it's Ydrasse's turn.

[Ircher]

I think we wait Toog confirm they're VT then have DEB share his result?

Toogeloo already reconfirmed VT (out of order).

[Ircher]

Tbf, MURDERCAT was a scum read being professed by some players, myself especially. He was at risk too. And at that point, you might as well out all three for coordination purposes, etc.

[Ircher]

[Ydrasse never really commented or did any analysis on pichu's case that i know of, and yet she was pretty confident in it at most times.. I considered scum!TMI and decided against it earlier, but now I am less sure.]

My understanding is Ydrasse didn't have that much time D2 and just lent her vote to pichu. I guess that's not the best look, but I wouldn't think this is really scum!TMI.

[Ircher]

*cues Jeopardy music*

Where art thou, Dr Easy Bake.

[Ircher]

Also Gloria, is there a reason your slot's activity level has inverted? As in Noraa has barely posted this day phase it seems whereas you are posting a lot.

[Ircher]

Also Gloria, is there a reason your slot's activity level has inverted? As in Noraa has barely posted this day phase it seems whereas you are posting a lot.

@Polar Bears

[Ircher]

Why do players chicken out when it is their turn to tell their secrets?

It's possible DEB got busy/forgot.

[Ircher]

I meant forgetting to claim. Though speaking of guilties, it did seem DEB softed a guilty result earlier when they were here at the beginning of the day.

[Ircher]

Supersaint Enabler is kinda eh. I mean, it does raise some eyebrows, but I don't think it's really alignment indicative in either direction.

[Ircher]

plz just wait it's not long day phases are 14 days. We got plenty of time lol.

We get 10 days, not 14. At the current rate, a third of the day will be over before any real discussion starts.

[Ircher]

Also,

@MOD: Will there be an extension to the deadline to account for Christmas?

[Ircher]

[If you wanted to sacrifice him this is probably how you'd do it. idk if Dunn is the target they'd choose but i don't really have any way of knowing who that is. It is a little convenient that Dr Easy got a guilty result on presumably the only player in the game who would be show up as guilty]

Convenience here really shouldn't matter. Yes, it's possible that DEB is lying, but yoo can't just look at it from the angle that he is lying. Also, Dunnstral was pretty much in the lim pool anyway. That kinda makes Dunnstral a poor choice to fake guilty because Dunnstral is almost certainly gone before the end of the game.

Dunnstral claimed not vig by refuting Dr Easy Bake's claim. I see no reason for us to lim DEB first here; as mentioned, the vig can always shoot DEB if we're wrong. This just makes much more sense from a mechanical viewpoint, and quite frankly, I don't think DEB's actions are necessarily super scum-indicative for DEB. They may be a little bit, bur not enough to override making the better mechanical play here.

I will hammer any target where a Super-saint concern might be. I'm confused how we have an enabler for Super-saint and no actual Super-saint though. Like, BM was a VT not a SS, so how did the kill happen?

Why does everyone think there is a Supersaint? I am almost definite it is a red herring. (I will note that this opinion is not backed by facts, but my intuition here.)

What do you think of DEB v Dunn?

I think the plan to lynch Deb is fine. I think I can hammer, and if DEB is legit, the vig can shoot Dunn. If scum have a SuperSaint and it's DEB, it's better I be the one that hammers.

I'd probably say DEB is more likely town than Dunn. I can't imagine a game where one scum counter claims another scum and then suicides either another scum buddy or himself the next day with a real or fake scan.

Uh, this is rather contradictory.

DEB being supersaint makes a lot of sense

Scum team was hopign DEB would die instead of Bell, and that Bell would look better, while DEb kills someone else

I don't see why they would think this at all. The case on Bell was pretty solid. The counterclaim had the opposite effect: it was the final nail in the coffin.

Right now it sounds like DEB can be shot without getting me first

Just going to note that mechanically, this is like the worst option.
---
In case my stance isn't clear here, I really think we should lim Dunn here. Then we vig DEB if we're wrong. If we are correct, we have a detective who can still get us results. Alternatively, scum kills detective!DEB which is still a major plus because the masons can still dominate in the day.

DEB's scum equity here does not exceed making the sensible mechanical play. Dunnstral was townie day 1, but he tapered off day 2. Again, his towniness does not exceed making the sensible mechanical play here.

[Ircher]

Yes.

[Ircher]

There is no requirement that the role being Enabled actually exists within the game.

[Ircher]

Oof finals right before Chrsitmas

Good luck Mistyx!

[Ircher]

VOTE: Dunnstral F-4

[Ircher]

The role doesn't provide that info @MURDERCAT.

[Ircher]

Yeah also I don't get why they are trying to do a post-by-post analysis of that slot anyway. It makes no sense due to the noise ratio.

[Ircher]

I read the fluff thing and skipped over it as well, so I don't know.

[Ircher]

Alright, I looked at Toog's post again. Here's my summary of Toog's points:

1.) Fluff
2.) More fluff
3.) OMGUS
4.) Fluff
5.) Scum theatre
6.) More OMGUS
7.) Fluff
8.) Fluff from Gloria
9.) Fluff
10.) OMGUS
11.) Fluff
12.) Scum theatre
13.) More fluff

So basically--no, there aren't any significant points in Toog's post.

[Ircher]

Well, if no one's going to read it, it'll save me from finishing it.

I'll just opt for always being a hammer vote for SSfear.

Yeah, forget the PbP analysis. Give us the summary and major points instead. That'll be more useful and less likely to be glazed over.

[Ircher]

I mean, Supersaint isn't common, and if I were in Solstice's shoes, I probably wouldn't consider the implications of a scum Supersaint dither. I don't see why that's a major red flag for you.

[Ircher]

Mastina's reads in general are why I think she's possibly scum, and I'd replace Ydrasse with her in my solve if I'm wrong about anyone.

like idunno man toog just feels townie to me :/

I don't get this impression at all. What makes you think Toogeloo is town here?

She hasn't done anything but fluff post

sounds like town!ydrasse to me tbh

Dunnstral brings up a good point here. And contrary to what your meta read suggests, I don't think that could ever be interpreted as a towntell. NAI, sure, but not town.

@Players who think Ydrasse is scum for fluffing

- viewtopic.php?f=83&t=85282 here's your evidence that helps prove Ydra is town for fluffing. Hell tbh, in her scum games I find that she fluffs way less.

A fluff ratio comparison is valid in terms of giving a town meta read. (Also, that's different from the assertion that Toogeloo is town because they are fluffing.) I will note that one game is anecdote, not a proof.

I'm out of time, so I'll try to do more later. Noraa has been my #1 scum pick for a while, and I am going to attempt to paint the picture as to why.

I think you’re either scum or you’re town ignoring my posts, who apparently hasn’t learned a damn thing from almost miscrolling me in Death Curse but that’s not why I think you’re scum though, It’s both your post on Creature, plus you jumping off Bell to vote both Creature and Mastina.

Speaking of Bell, can you explain what your slot saw in the VCs y'all quoted earlier this day phase? I took a glance, but I didn't see much.

Also guys if mafia does have a supersaint, we should be playing around a hated supersaint.
just letting ywall know that, at least I am going to play around that.

A hated Supersaint. Really? I think you need to let up a little on the conspiracy theories.

So, how isn’t it a full inno then or am I misunderstanding this?

I could've performed the N2 kill. Alternatively, one of my buddies could have performed the kill N1. This is ofc speaking as if I am scum (which I am not).

More likely is either DEB town with a genuine guilty or DEB scum faking a guilty on a scumbuddy. Either way, Dunnstral's a pretty sure bet at being scum.

Yeah guiltying your scumbuddy after counterclaiming your scumbuddy the previous day would be a 200 IQ move on Flavor Leaf's part. I wouldn't be surprised if that were the case, but at the same time, I think it's likely it's just scum!Dunnstral and town!Dr Easy Bake.

I’ve got to ask why so many people in this game don’t seem to have any opinion on my posts? Maybe DT but I almost feel like I’m not even in the game at times because so many people keep referring to our slot as “Noraa”.

Idk. I think half of it is you don't sign, and at first, you weren't posting at all. So people naturally associate the slot as Noraa. Aside from that, I don't think top many of your posts have been alignment indicative. The hydra voting dissonance D2 is the only thing that caught my attention from your head.

[If Dr Easy is scum guiltying his teammate, isn't that just completely game-losing?]

Not necessarily. There's still three of them left. Remember, Flavor Leaf likes to make the big plays with high risk and high reward, so it's not out of the question. I don't think it's particularly likely.

i shouldve been drafted as scum tbh

Your inexplicable progression on our slot makes me doubt you weren’t.

Meh, I think scum!Ydrasse would be a bit more inclined to engage you here rather than purposely provoking you.

this game would be better if the town didnt know which stump was town and which stump was scum

I think it's better this way. I'd just ignore both stumps in that case.

Hectic put her at locktown and I trust him

I mean, this is a good reason to townread Ydrasse here in the absence of anything stronger, but please keep in mind that people are not infallible.

[Ydrasse has not employed AtE in this game]

That's not strictly true. The pichu death reaction could be considered AtE to an extent.

All I can say is with all y'all having the PoE down so far you're struggling to put 3 names in it, y'all are gonna have a wake up call down the line. Way too trusting is all I'm saying.

We will deal with it when it comes to it. No point in dwelling on it right now.

Mastina's reads in general are why I think she's possibly scum, and I'd replace Ydrasse with her in my solve if I'm wrong about anyone.

I kinda think it's typical for town!mastina's reads to be really eh. I don't see this as strong evidence for scum!mastina.

At bottom of 5211.

[Ircher]

You can ignore the first quote.

[Ircher]

What teammates does he support? Like, Bell is reasonably a 4th pick in the draft, maybe 3rd.

I think Bell's a stronger scum player than you are giving them credit here. Also, the bans probably play a big role in who Flavor Leaf picks.

- 1485 is actually really interesting positioning considering creature was kinda lhf at the time but no one really talked about it. If he was scum, I doubt he comes out with this read on the player. You could argue that his progression on creature is like weird but like idunno

Toogeloo's read on Creature in that post is a "Flavor Leaf wouldn't draft Creature"-read. I don't see how you find that weird positioning or a weird progression.

- 3610 is some conspiracy shit that doesn't come from scum lol

Uh no. If Toogeloo is scum, then Toogeloo probably sees that the writing is on the wall. They would need to find new people outside the established pools (i.e.: DEB, Dunn, Spiffeh) to give pressure in the hopes of surviving.

- not knowing how mechanics works is a towntell and this is shown in the fact he doesn't know anything about the fact that FL can suggest 2 "rules"

This can be faked. Note that I am not commenting on whether Toogeloo's lack of awareness is fake or not.

The reason why I'm so hooked on this {Spiffeh, Dunn, Polar Bears} solve is like
the slots just refuse to scumread each other and it seems like they're just supporting each other like how teammates would like.

If true, this is a pretty good point actually. I'll have to look into it.

3 masons + vig is 4 confirmed town

We should have never trusted an investigative claim

It's a 17p setup, and we have no idea what scum has. Well, I guess it's reasonable to suppose that scum don't have a roleblocker. 3 masons in a 13p mini normal is considered close to balanced.

I guess the detective claim looks worse when we consider pichu's role, but again, we don't know what powers scum has. Furthermore, pichu's role was rather gated and only able to get guilties on a very specific kind of scum. If we suppose the mafia team isn't all goons (which is a reasonable assumption in my opinion), it's probably on the weaker side; probably around tracker level of power.

Also, this is 100% a conspiracy theory, but we don't even know if the vig is town. Scum vigs are unusual, but it's not impossible especially when scum can choose their roles.

I think vig pool should be
{DEB, Polar Bears, Spiffeh, Toogeloo}

I think DEB should be shot if and only if Dunnstral flips town. While it's possible it's scum-scum, I think it's not super likely as it's a really risky move. I'm fine with saving DEB as the last scum if we must; DEB will still have to fake Detective results. Hmmm... That's another possibility. If the vig is town (which is likely), then DEB could be true claiming Detective here (as scum). Scum could use a detective to try to find the vig.

So, tell me why I should even bother to try to solve the game when you’re ignoring my posts and are hellbent on miseliming us?

Because if you are solving, your slot will naturally come across as town? Like, solving seems a win-win situation to me: 1) you are less likely to get limmed and 2) you are more likely to help advance town's win con by finding scum. Also, Double the Trouble and some of the suspects are the only ones scum reading you. The majority is town reading your slot. You should solve for the rest of us even if Double ignores you.

VOTE: Toogeloo

(Adding to my ISO...)

I can see FL picking Toogeloo for specifically that reason; he has this tendency to slip through the radar, be written off, be ignored, be invisible, the entire game, in spite of not doing much of anything. That's a valuable player to have on your scumteam.

I agree strongly with this take (note: I don't have the meta experience to verify the claim, but the rest of it is what I agree strongly with), and I think it matches Toogeloo's play this game. They have constantly been floated as possible scum, but it wasn't until recently where they have received more direct pressure. Part of that is that they seem to lack a commanding presence, so when they post, they naturally just slip by past people and garner little attention.

FL picked Toogeloo to slip through the radar, be written off and ignored, and be invisible, yet he's anything but that? And yet he can be elimination bait but he's not?

Toogeloo has done precisely that Day 1 and Day 2. It's not a nonsensical take; they have garnered very little attention aside from being a predominantly PoE read for many players, the kind of read people don't pay much attention to.

At bottom of page 212.

[Ircher]

Oh no. Masons controlling the game. Let me complain about it and shade them so hard that maybe my scum team won’t get completely destroyed. That’s way easier than solving when nobody cares about my Ydrasse read.

- Norwee

I kinda see Gloria's point. Like the mass claim really killed the game's momentum, and it's kinda amazing we have recovered from it as well as we have. I do agree that Gloria's behavior is rather antitown, but I can sort of see why Gloria feels demotivated in the current game state.

people were planting the seeds that would set up toogeloo to be elimination bait on days 1 and 2.
I know spiffeh planted a few of those seeds.
noraa planted them.

Do you have quotes or post numbers to back this assertion up?

Like
mastina come on
that's just a red flag

Red flags are valid, but they are simply that--flags, not conclusive evidence. I haven't seen much from Toogeloo that would dissuade me from my current position.

Ircher could be scum hidden in the townies

Doesn't he have a good grasp of setup balance? How is he ok with the implication of 3 masons, a cop, a vigilante, and a detective?

I have a generally good sense, yes, but my specialty is more minis and micros. Anyway, there are a bunch of unknowns here still since we don't know what scum have. Also, I forgot about the doctor. That changes things somewhat. The cop as I already mentioned is heavily gated. The vig is potentially one-shot, so it may be only a middling PR here. I do think something like 3 masons + Heavily Gated Cop + Roaming Doc + Odd Night Vig + Supersaint Enabler vs. Mafia Detective + 2nd Mafia Investigative + 2x Mafia Goons might seem balanced, but again, it's hard to tell in a setup where scum chose their roles. (I will mention once more though that I forgot about the doc flip when evaluating the setup's balance; that does make it rather more likely DEB is scum here. Without the doc, I think it's perfectly plausible that DEB is town.) Also, 6 or 7 town PRs in a 17p large doesn't seem very unusual. The masons here are of course the bulk of the setup's power, and as I commented before, 3 masons in a 13p normal (which doesn't need as much town power as 13-4) is relatively balanced, probably a bit on the scum side.

Drafting people who stay under the radar is a losing strategy in this setup.

Dr Easy Bake is under the radar.

Yes, but that's DEB's style.

its you plebeians that are going to win the game in F3-5-7-whatever because we're going to be dead and we died to set that up for ywall

I hope not. Hopefully, the game is over by then.

How many pages y'all think are in the Scum PT?

With you at the helm? Probably 20+ at this point.

Well, I guess it's reasonable to suppose that scum don't have a roleblocker.

The cop is strong-willed, I assume the opposite

I was thinking more along the lines of DEB getting a result last night. I guess that's a bad assumption.

[Ircher]

Also, limming you remains the superior mechanical play here, even if setup spec points the other direction.

At the bottom of 5395.

[Ircher]

Actually, strong-willed is a good sign there is a roleblocker. If there is a mafia roleblocker, then it becomes reasonable again that DEB is a town detective here.

3x Masons + Strong-Willed Simple Disloyal Vanilla Cop + Roaming Doc + Odd-Night Vigilante + Detective + Supersaint Enabler vs. Odd Night Roleblocker + Investigative Role + 2x Goon doesn't seem too unreasonable to me, especially when I think it was advertised the setup is roughly balanced here but not guaranteed.

[Ircher]

Again, the roleblocker might be (probably is) gated if it exists. Full roleblockers are notorious for being really strong in scum hands.

[Ircher]

I don't know if mastina has thought about the setup much, but she has a good gauge at evaluating balance as well, so I'd be interested in hearing her thoughts.

[Ircher]

UNVOTE: for now.

[Ircher]

Oh yeah, Netflix flipped Informed Townie...

[Ircher]

VOTE: Dunnstral

Meh, setup spec aside, this still remains the better move.

Pretty sure this puts Dunn back at F-4 since he unvoted himself but Double joined the wagon.

[Ircher]

Do you think Blade will count that? Like when I'm modding, I only count the last vote in a post.

[Ircher]

Remember, town flip means vig shoots DEB.

[Ircher]

I wouldn't shoot DEB here if it's a scum flip.

[Ircher]

Merry Christmas!

I don't think this setup has enough power for a redirector to be likely. 4 scum vs 13 town requires significantly more power than 3 scum do in a mini normal.

[Ircher]

I agree--vig should probably claim.

[Ircher]

Everyone list the 3 people you think are scum please

Spiffeh and Dr Easy Bake almost certainly. Spiffeh is admittedly a PoE read here; Spiffeh's stances haven't been unreasonable really.

I would guess Toogeloo for third, but rn, I strongly think that may be a trap in that Flavor Leaf wants us to lim there. So I'm not exactly confident there though admittedly, the evidence points in favor of Toogeloo being scum here. I think my conspiracy theory pick for third scum here would be Solstice as mastina and Polar Bears just seem really town this game. (Ydrasse is a trust read here.) But that's a conspiracy pick; by play, Toogeloo is the logical choice for third.

(Also, I think if the game isn't over before then, there's a very very high possibility 3p LimLo is Solstice/Ydrasse/me.)
---
Also, this is going to come across as hindsight is 20/20, but I kinda didn't want the previous day to end quite yet when it did. I should've unvoted, but I didn't feel strongly enough hesitation to actually go forth with it. Dunnstral did have a good point then that there were flaws with DEB's claim from a setup-speccing perspective. Now, obviously, I was arguing that it was still possible that DEB was town, but I was interested in hearing a second opinion (mainly mastina's). Anyway, that's partially my fault for letting it happen, but I do think we should be clearer about when we're going to hammer. Maybe we should bring intent back, just a thought.

It's also kind of important everyone convey right now their pick for scum in the event I flip town. I'm the current easy target for the scum team to get a miselim on, but someone else is right above me that the scum are eyeballing to take out as well. Be on your toes.

Yes, this is a good reason to be cautious before limming you.

PEdit:. That's a read, none of that makes me lockscum.

This is mere semantics. You should fully know what mastina means by lockscum.

I must have been fucked with last night, redirected without my knowledge.
Well barring any misdirection, last night I swear to you I targeted the Electric Toogeloo, and got a guilty.

lol no. Nice try. Toogeloo may very well be scum; they may not. The guilty changes nothing.

[Ircher]

At bottom of 5488.

So the setup currently looks something like this:

3x Masons + Odd Night Vigilante (the gate is a guess) + Informed Townie (Mafia can multitask) + Strong-Willed Disloyal Simple Vanilla Cop + Roaming Doctor + Supersaint Enabler (???) vs. Roleblocker (probably gated--a full one seems a bit overpowered here) + Detective? (Good chance DEB true claimed) + 2x Goon. (I highly doubt there is an actual supersaint especially with a roleblocker present. It's even less likely if DEB is true claiming their role.

[Ircher]

VOTE: DEB
Go ahrad and vote Toogeloo, if you are around.

[Ircher]

UNVOTE:

[Ircher]

Well the only logical alternative is Spiffeh.

Can you explain your thinking here Pooky, as in why you dob't think Toogeloo should hammer here?

[Ircher]

I think it's doubtful that Spiffeh would agree to hammer an actual supersaint. Spiffeh has actually played rather survivalistically this entire game.

I could hammer, but that seems a bit suboptimal based on where collective reads seem to be.

[Ircher]

so imo either the scum dont have a supersaint and tooge is scum trying to towncred for nothing or

scum do have a supersaint and tooge is actually town

For the record, I still highly doubt scum have a supersaint, but I do agree that if there is a supersaint, Toogeloo is likely town here based on their eagerness to hammer.

[Ircher]

VOTE: Dr Easy Bake

[Ircher]

UNVOTE:

[Ircher]

Why did DEB self-hammer there?

[Ircher]

Solstice is probably clear from the supersaint flip.
VOTE: Spiffeh

pedit: Yeah, that was I thought as well. Anything else seemed to me like not adhering to win condition. I guess the vig did shoot Toogeloo regardless, SO it wasn't totally a bad move, but it still seems worse than letting someone hammer.

[Ircher]

If it's not you, who are the two remaining scum? You've been oftly survivalist this game, and I haven't seen much solving from you.

[Ircher]

That post says absolutely nothing.

[Ircher]

Who do you plan to tackle first?

[Ircher]

Maybe not clear, but it feels much more likely that with a real supersaint, your role ends up being town (from a design perspective). It also seems like a really weird role for scum to actively choose to take. (They did choose their roles after alp.) Also, scum!you could have just kept quiet about the role, and we wouldn't have known any better. I think that gives a fairly high probability that you are town here.

[Ircher]

What pinged you about Solstice yesterday? Do you still remember, Spiffeh?

[Ircher]

@mastina: Can you link that recent scum game where you efforted once more?

I still think mastina is town, but it may help to compare this game to that one.

pedit: I see. That makes sense actually.

[Ircher]

Is there a difference between evens and odds?

-nornor

Yes.

Consider a 3-2 limlo. Here, town has a 2/5 or 40% chance to lim correctly and survive.
Compare this to 4-2 mislimlo. Here, town has a 2/6 or 33% chance to lim correctly, so no lim is almost always the correct move. The exception is when there are confirmed innocents alive; they'll die anyway and the chances become 2/5 again or whatever.

[Ircher]

no voting

Why? It's not LimLo.
UNVOTE: I guess...

Should be easy to make a case on each other

Cases are overrated.

2 scum in this list:
mastina, Spiffeh, Ircher, Solstice, Polar Bear Express

Each of you give one top town and one top scum within the list

Town: Myself obviously. Jokes aside, probably Solstice. I explained why already.
Scum: Spiffeh. Barely made any reads past day 1; keeps playing the survival card. This is almost certainly scum.

[Ircher]

mastina is on the same page as me gamestate wise. Interesting.

[Ircher]

She probably hasn't read that far yet.

[Ircher]

Scum have some form of roleblocker--presumably, having blocked Ydrasse both N2 and N3. So at least 2x if not more.

Yes, but it is possible that Ydrasse holstered N2. Ydrasse did explicitly say they targeted DEB N3, but Ydrasse made no remark about their target N2. I recall that the pool of people to vig back then wasn't exactly a good pool for the time. (Granted, some of us had the masons in their scum reads, so it makes sense certain people weren't in the pool. Nonetheless, we didn't know that at the time.)

Three masons, one vig, one investigative loosely at the level of a cop, and one or two roles that give info but are otherwise worthless. (Informed, Supersaint Enabler.)

You forgot the roaming doctor. 3x masons can also be a pretty powerful combo. I still agree with the overall sentiment that even with the doctor, the odds are favorable Solstice's role is town here.

[Ircher]

Okay, I read like the first quarter of the linked game, and like Solstice above, it doesn't really look the same as mastina's game here. The beginning definitely looked much different, but that may be in part because this game had a draft. In the linked game, mastina quoted some posts and assigned them reads. Here, mastina kinda goes full throttle into speculating based on what Flavor Leaf would do for the draft.

Another, more significant difference, is that mastina gave a lot of reads lists this game. Looking through the linked one, she doesn't really seem to do that. In fact, at a glance, it seems a bit hard to tell where mastina stands at any given time whereas here, mastina's position is quite clear.

I also agree with Solstice that mastina seemed to focus more on towncasing people that game. Maybe that's just because it was easier, but it could be the case that scum!mastina is more aware of how tunneling someone who is going to flip town is going to look bad.

Finally, I think mastina seemed more mechanically focused in the linked game as compared to here. She had reads based on the draft here, but she seemed to quickly discard them seeing as how Creature and me were at the bottom of her reads lists quite early on. That being said, the mystery box game seems to be a bit more mechanics heavy (the number of scum is actually an important detail!) Overall, this game still looks like it's more likely town!mastina than scum!mastina.

[Ircher]

Spoiler:

VOTE: Dr Easy Bake
Doing this now, since Ircher unvoted and Toogeloo never really voted (per mod's way of handling votes), so this is back to

L-2

.

VOTE: Doctor Easy Bake

E-1

VOTE: The Original D (myself)

I'm really surprised no one is seeing what I'm seeing here

I do think it's a somewhat suspect sequence of events. I had indeed unvoted specifically because I didn't want a hammer then. (Now, you may think--why did I let Toogaloo do the E-1 vote earlier--well, I figured it was okay because I thought the chances of Supersaint here, much less Hated Supersaint, were really low, so it was a risk I was willing to take.)

That being said, I kinda don't think scum would be so reckless as to coordinate a quickhammer in broad daylight like that. Idk, maybe they would with Flavor Leaf at the helm, but I can reasonably buy mastina's vote here as her thinking it was relatively low risk. It's very possible she didn't expect a hammer. (On the flip side, maybe she /wanted/ a hammer to happen...)

[Ircher]

Well I actually don't know DEB's schedule. I assume that DEB does a lot of active lurking, so DEB would know when they are E-1. mastina tends to be around at that time anyway--it didn't seem that unusual. I guess Polar Bears looks the worst there, but they could probably find a credible defense for their actions.

[Ircher]

Tell us please. Explain it to me like I’m five.

This post is kinda concerning... Especially considering what we're discussing rn...

[Ircher]

Also, as a side note: I find it very strange scum didn't roleblock Ydrasse despite Ydrasse claiming gated. That suggests the roleblocker is gated.

[Ircher]

(Granted, that was my assumption anyways, but just pointing that out.)

[Ircher]

I would love to hear more from Spiffeh.

Anyway, I'm off for the night, see y'all tomorrow morning.

[Ircher]

to tell you the truth, high effort is not towny for me either, anyway -- what's towny about me this game is how easy I find it to make content, which isn't super different from being perceived as high effort, I guess ?? Essentially, I don't care about giving my stances on things over and over again all day long because i know everything i think is by definition coming from a town place so if anyone scumreads it, that is not my bad.]

[whereas when i'm scum i live in constant fear of slipping up somewhere

(I will note that for anyone who might want to meta me, this is actually a pretty good description of what I do as scum as well. Games are on my wiki page in chronological order from most recent to least recent. I will note that my scum games can be very hit or miss. Newbie 1975 is a game I lost as scum, but it's in my opinion one of my best scum games. Granted, I tend to have a habit of forgetting my performances with time.)

Fine but I still think it’s really silly for anyone to think a player who is widely considered the 5th best scum player on site does something this ludicrously boneheaded but whatever.

Tbh, I don't believe in a lot of "town tells" because I find most of them are too easy to fake as scum or could easily be explained as coincidence with as much validity as the actual town tell case. This falls under that. I don't think it's condemning--as I said earlier, you can probably give a credible defense for your timing--but I am not going treat this as anything close to resembling a clear.

Well, we’re in the same boat as you are, so I wish I could be more help here. I know we will probably lose if I can’t convince people and I feel extremely frustrated about that. If I can’t convince people that we’re flipping town then would much prefer to be misfaded today rather than being the reason we wind up losing.

This is the /exact/ same thing Bell did earlier: woe is me AtE, stalling / not actually providing reads, etc. Why /should/ we town read you for this behavior given the precedent set by Bell?

I know it’s not us. I don’t think it’s you, probably not Mastina

That leaves Spiffeh and me. You can towncase the other two slots you are townreading for a start. That will be more useful than towncasing yourself.

I thought was the optimal move, to keep DEB near the elimination mark but not at L-1 until we were ready

Why did you think this was important? That is, why was it important to keep DEB near elimination even if we weren't intending to immediately go through with it?

(Because, per the mod's ruling on votes, DEB never went to L-1. Toogeloo did a vote on DEB and an unvote on DEB in the same post, with the unvote being after the vote. Per the mod, the only vote-action taken was Toogeloo's unvote, so Toogeloo never voted DEB.

This actually isn't how I interpreted the mod's post:

I read the thread chronologically when counting votes. In 5430, Toog voted and then unvoted Dunn.

This implied to me that Toogeloo was actually voting Dunnstral in that post, and if it were an actual hammer, Blade would have stopped counting. I would expect her to rule something like "In 5430, Toogeloo unvoted" if your interpretation was the correct one. I guess it's an irrelevant point here, but eh.

[like I agree with this, Ircher is much stronger than the other two today, yesterday, and overall by far. Even so, Im finding it hard to shake my early read of Noraa and read on Gloria.

For the record, I feel Noraa's town meta is something that scum can imitate without too much difficulty especially with the help of a good scum player (Flavor Leaf) and at least during the early game.

I guess the game’s solved then according to you. so why not grant my request? Why put me in the position of being the game losing misfade when you can just kill us today? It’s pretty damn clear that nothing other than our flip will convince anyone, so let me prove to everyone I wasn’t lying then.

This post implicitly supposes Spiffeh isn't scum as Spiffeh is currently the most at-risk of being limmed (with you secobd most). Thus, for you to be a game losing misfade, both Spiffeh and you have to be town. This is inconsistent with your earlier expressed reads that everyone save Spiffeh and me were likely town, so I don't understand this attitude.

Great fanfiction you’ve got there Mastina. Very sadly, none of it happens to be even remotely true.

Blatant AtE, and calling her narrative a fanfiction is very far from the truth.

Why because Hectic was very obviously townreading us and only had concerns about my lack of posting but anyone who ISO’s me in Death Curse, would clearly see that I lurked there for two weeks straight.

Yes, pichu was townreading you. But pichu didn't have the same info then that we have now and the expressed town read was strong, but not super strong. Regarding activity, I'm not really reading y'all too much off of that (but I do find the talking switch D3 a bit convenient for your scum meta--again, I think that it was a legitimate switch, just one that happens to very much help scum!you.)

this hypothetical “crumb” you allege Hectic made to me is literally the first I’m hearing about it.

I can believe you missed the post, but uh, that was definitely a crumb. More specifically, pichu pointed to a previous page in an attempt to crumb you in on pichu's role. I don't see how you don't think that post was a crumb.

OPINION: Mastina’s scumcase on us is ironically actually a towncase on us and her what reads to me as likely confibias, is apparently preventing her from realizing that.

FTFY

While mastina may very well be conf-biased, I don't see how any of this is actually rooted in the evidence. You've heard from many different people the exact same (or slightly modified but overall the same) takes that mastina is giving, so either we're all wrong (possible, but not super likely) or the facts don't actually support town!you; they may be NAI or something else.

FACT: My debunking of any of that being even remotely scum indicative isn’t being addressed.

I think your debunking has been addressed to some extent. More importantly, I think you have to give people time to process and address it as I'm trying to do right now.

FACT: What part of my hard pushing you all to misfade us today to prove we’re town is going over people’s heads?

This isn't a fact; it's an opinion expressed as a question. Scum can quite easily offer themselves up. It's called WIFOM.

[Ircher]

I don't understand why you think flavor would actually just randomly pick people?

She didn't? She seemed to make it pretty clear that she thinks Flavor Leaf carefully picked his team to suit his purposes.

Murdercat hasn't graduated from the institute of soul reading Noraa yet if that was a soulread.

Soul reads can be a one-way street. Ausuka used to be able to read me pretty well, but I couldn't read her that well.

[Ircher]

I mean, if it wasn't actually a crumb, do you think pichu would explicitly call it a crumb? I don't think so.

[Ircher]

Apparently, people don’t understand that I’m dead serious about that but hey that’s just scum!AtE. Well there’s a really super effective way to test that out. So why is no one interested in doing that?

Ultimately, the masons decide the lim. Maybe you missed the part where they said, "Don't vote."

[Ircher]

Mastina since I know for a fact these ridiculous fanfiction type of analysis is something she can also do as town. that’s why I’m saying I NIA read that.

Your previous posts made it seem you like you were scum reading mastina for that.

What’s bizarre to me is Mastina’s 180 and now Ircher’s jumped on it. Even Solstice who I would expect to know better is buying into to it.

If the 180 you are referring to is our reads on you, I think you really need to consider the fact that the poe pool is only five people now. Most of the people we thought were scum earlier have either flipped already or are masons. Reads change with time as new evidence and new information arises. It may seem like a sudden change, and it is a sudden change, but it's a change backed in reevaluating the game state based on the info we have now, not the info we previously had.

I've seen some town-indicative stuff from your slot. I really did think the voting dissonance on Day 2 was a decent town indicator for your slot, and I still do. But you have to understand that from my perspective, both mastina and Solstice are stronger town reads. mastina has played an exceptionally good game if she is scum, and I did look at the game she linked, and she didn't seem too similar here. She also would have had to hard bus /both/ Bell and DEB, and I don't find that rather likely. Solstice is in a (at least imho) mechanically cleared situation, and while their play may not seem as strongly as town, it's still town enough overall that it doesn't make me raise eyebrows at the slot/become paranoid that I'm reading the setup correctly. I am town from my perspective. That leaves Spiffeh and you as the scum team by process of elimination.

my insisting that if it’s not beyond obvious how we’re soft towncleared from DEB’s hammer

This isn't obvious, and nor is it a soft clear. Like, we cannot all be scum thinking it isn't a soft clear. Arguments based on what Flavor Leaf would or would not instruct the scum team to do are not super useful because neither situation occurs infrequently enough to be statistically significant.

You can make conjectures based on what scum would or would not do, but you have to acknowledge that they are mainly conjectures. That is, there's a reasonable chance that your conjecture is wrong and something else actually happened.

I even posted evidence from a different game why scumreading us for that is an extremely bad take

A single game is an anecdote, not evidence. There are so many other variables you have to account for like the scum team in that game, the town in that game, the current game state, and so much more. To make any significant statement that can be applied broadly, you need to get a sufficient sample size. If you linked 20 games to back up your point, that would be far more meaningful. A single game is hardly evidence though, especially when it doesn't seem like the behavior you are claiming soft clears you is unusual for any scum player.

all I get is, oh how are you being different here than Bell?

Have you stopped for a second and considered the fact that we /don't/ know your alignment? It's easy to think "I'm obviously town" when you /know/ you are town, but to outsiders, that isn't nearly as apparent.

Take a look back at what Bell did. Please tell me how your behavior is significantly different from what Bell did after pichu gave his case.

Because I’m willing to be flipped to prove I’m not lying

Actions speak louder than words. Willingness to do is not the same as actually going through with it. Why do you think people use AtE on the site? Why do people make statements like this? They do it because they know it has a good chance of working. They do it because they can claim whatever, but it is much harder to actually do things that show they are town.

no, we shouldn’t be tr for that

Okay, then what's your point? Like, why would you bring it up unless you are trying to use it to sell us that you are town here?

considering no one is bothering to debunk that like every single one of my other arguments and still call that AtE completely blows my mind.

Even if we call it something else, the point remains the same. Why are you spending so much time talking about why you are soft cleared when you could be using it to generate reads and solving? You should realize that by this point, continuing to argue that you are soft cleared or that you are town is going to go nowhere. All it does is waste space and clutter the thread. Thus, if you are town, why haven't you attempted a different strategy? Why haven't you tried to /show/ you are town by being town, rather than merely argue that you are town?

I understand that you are a newer player, Gloria. Your viewpoint and strategy here is quite typical of the newer and more inexperienced players. But what you need to realize is that what may seem obvious to you is not obvious to others, and that not everything is black and white. When people express a scum read on you, they aren't doing it because they are trying to pick on you, they do it because based on /their/ knowledge, you are the most likely scum. And while it may seem that we have made up our minds, the answer is we haven't. For if the game had decided already, we wouldn't couldn't discussing. We would go forth with what we have collectively decided.

Too often, newer players focus too much on defending themselves when really they should focus on finding scum and helping town's win condition. Thus, if you are town, stop focusing on yourself. Start focusing on the other people in this game. Elaborate on your town reads and scum reads, but don't focus on yourself. Show that you are town by doing, not by merely arguing such.

[Ircher]

[A.) How Noraa was under the impression that Bell could never have been eliminated is totally beyond me. The only slot that had unvoted Bell is Gloria 2 pages back.]

Noraa explicitly cites Gloria as the basis for this take. The question still remains I guess, but I get the feeling that Gloria might have exaggerated things since there seemed to be some voting dissonance between them Day 2.

[B.) How do you vote someone other than the confirmed scum in your eyes, who has about 3 votes. Murdercatto is not confirmed scum to Noraa nor Gloria and has 0 votes. Noraa thinks there is 1-2 scum between them, which conflicts with how she is scumreading Murder for WKing Bell (?)

To play Devid's Advocate: I think this aspect of the post follows rather easily if you assume Noraa genuinely believes part a (that Bell isn't going to be limmed). Noraa thus votes the slot they scum read the second most since it seems to her that her first pick isn't an option.

[C.) I just got done saying I was about to hammer Bell 3 pages back. And again, not a single player unvotes Bell during this period except for Polarbears themself. It is confusing to me that someone chilling at X-1 for several days gives Noraa the impression they're "getting away".]

Eh, I think it kind of makes sense, all things considered. If a player sits around E-1 all day, but no one gives intent to hammer, it's very possible will get distracted later in the day and go elsewhere. Having only one wagon was an indicator of stagnation, and when games stagnate, things can go awry. I don't think I'm doing a good job explaining my viewpoint here, but basically, Noraa's impression that Bell is "getting away" is a game state read based on the game's momentum, which was slowing down and not really progressing.

So basically this proves Noraa wasn't paying attention at all or feigning that.

I actually don't find this particularly condemning.

however that doesn't excuse how it makes about zero sense to start a vanity wagon on Murdercat there if you think Bell has a couple votes and also think he's confirm scum

It might not make sense, but people are not (as a general rule) logical beings. They do irrational things based on an incorrect or unreasonable understanding of reality.

[Ircher]

Can people stop writing wall after wall after wall?
I have to spend like a solid hour just reading some posts that imo could be summarized into nice short chunks.

-nornor

[To be honest, wall-style posting is easier for me to parse through than 500+ post ISOs. i will try to keep it shorter though]

~Morning

I think the same. Long quotes are hard to deal with though.

[Ircher]

Spiffeh and Polar Bear Express.

[Ircher]

So is there a point to this day continuing? I mean, we could give Spiffeh more time... but Spiffeh hasn't done much at all this game, so... I'm not really expecting that much. Aside from that, unless the masons have a shocking opinion to give, I think most everyone is on the same page. It doesn't seem particularly likely anything will change here.

[Ircher]

(Mind you, I'm not in a rush, but if we're going to just sit around waiting or rehashing the same arguments, that seems like a good sign to move on to the next day.)

[Ircher]

...

[Ircher]

Initial thoughts, Vaxkiller?

[Ircher]

Wait, it's over already? :O

[Ircher]

Anyway, thanks for modding Blade Dancer!

I think this deserves a game of the year nom. It was really fun all-around and I didn't see any issues. It still qualifies for this past year, right?

Also, the scum team played well. I don't think they should be disappointed in their performance here at all. Once more, it was really fun playing with y'all!

[Ircher]

I think Supersaint is enough of a surprise that town should have some warning about it. As far as informed townie goes, that role could've definitely been dropped and the setup would be roughly the same.

I do think the setup is overall balanced to a reasonable standard. 13-4 requires quite a bit of town power (as opposed to 10-3), and scum did have some powerful tools. Maybe a full vig is a little bit too much; as Blade Dancer points out, the other roles, especially the cop, were quite gated.

[Ircher]

Scum can be fun too, Noraa! It's all about mindset.

And I agree--you did great! Even there at the end, I still had some doubts because i thought your slot had some really good moments that were indicative of town. They just didn't outweigh the towniness I saw in the other slots still alive.

[Ircher]

Oh yes I just realized my elo is going up

Indeed; this game will be included! The update should be up by the end of next week or so. It takes some time to enter the data.

[Ircher]

I have a player ratings page on my wiki that I update. It's linked in my signature. Basically, your rating changes as you participate in games with me based on how well you do; the full details are on my wiki page. It's more for fun than anything.

[Ircher]

Oh, Ircher, we were at 55 pages when you said "at least 20". We ended with 65 in the PT

Hey, wasn't wrong! But that's actually a lot of pages. It's quite impressive actually.

I can't wait to read the PTs.

[Ircher]

One. Flavor had half his roles be prs, so I aimed similarly for town but they are weak (yours) to useless (notscience hydra) to negative utlity (the vig) PRs.

That last part is very interesting!

Despite the vig missing both shots (including hitting a town PR), the vig actually played well. Both of those shots were people we were going to lim anyway, so while it may seem like the vig is negative utility (because they often shoot town), in truth, good vigs are really helpful as they eliminate suspects that would otherwise waste the town's attention.

(Also, for the record, full vig is actually considered a very strong role by most people.)

My play was obviously terrible this game, but I was drowning in pages to sift through, and this player list loved to make a lot of noise. I still stand on my PBE scum read, which has been my #1 pick since Day 1. Mastina is #2.

Your play may not have been the best, but it wasn't terrible. It's more that comparatively, your slot was a bit muddier compared to people like mastina. I was starting to (just a little) to come around on you; I'm not definite I would've still been keen on limming you if you hadn't been vigged.

if we lose i actually just have no one to blame but myself

(I would advise people not to be so hard on themselves. We all make mistakes; we all make wrong reads from time to time. Also, while you were a mason, in general, town pays much less attention to the reads of the dead versus the reads of the still living. So even if you express a strong read while you are living, there's a good chance town disregards it or regards it a little bit as soon as you die.)

Like I hold myself to these really high expectations because I'm like a perfectionist

Tip: Don't be. It's a ridiculously high standard, and it causes more stress than anything. Just focus on doing your best.

[Ircher]

You’re doing awesome Noraa. Next time you’re scum and hopefully the RNG gods will finally cut you a break and you won’t be for a long time after this - tell your scumteam not to hardbus you D1 if ever, seriously. I think that’s the REAL reason you guys lost, because of all of the associatives literally tying you to your buddies.

I think this is a good take. Some players have a naturally "scummy" meta and get suspected almost every Day 1. (That just so happens to be often the case for me.) But the thing is, those same players can sometimes also be the hardest players to lim. Anyway, Noraa had a strong early game here imo, and I also think she matches the description I wrote above. That would make her well suited for making it deep into games when she is scum, so bussing her early doesn't seem a very good strategy.

[Ircher]

Spoiler: Some more thoughts on the setup

I'm spoilering this because I imagine some people don't really want to wade through more setup talk. Anyway, I've thought about it some more, and I still think that's it's reasonably balanced, but not without flaws. It definitely leans a bit on the townsided side of things, but not overtly so.

I think there are two fundamental issues or flaws with this setup. The first is that there are a high number of roles that are "town by claim". The vig, doc, masons, and the Supersaint Enabler (after the Supersaint flips) are all roles that basically aren't likely to be doubted after they claim. This can lead to scum being frustrated even when they kill PR after PR because it essentially means they are boxed into killing these people and not who they want. I think this is a design issue more than a balance issue, but it is true that one has to be careful about having too many of these kinds of roles in a non-role madness game. I had this issue in a game that I tried to run once (see here), but thankfully, my reviewers were well aware of this issue. Notably, that just as adding mafia makes the setup exponentially more scumsided, the same is true for town when adding more confirmed townies. With pseudo-confirmed-town-by-claiming roles, it's a lesser issue but still one to think about. Now, in the setup I linked, it was kind of overt, but the same principle applies; you don't want to give town top many roles that will in essence force the mafia's hand.

Now, the other main flaw with the setup is the Supersaint Enabler. As I stated earlier, I do think the Supersaint changes up the game enough where town probably should have some kind of indicator that it exists. That indicator doesn't necessarily have to be at the beginning of the game, but at the same time, it can't come too late. The main issue here though, and it relates back to my first observation, is that by making the Supersaint Enabler a separate role, it is basically free information for the town, AND likely leads to the role being seen as town, especially when it's known that scum chose their roles. (Why would scum /EVER/ pick Supersaint Enabler as one of their roles, especially with an actual Supersaint?) Thus, the way to solve this (at least imo) is to tie the information to a role that doesn't want to attract a night kill. In this setup, that means either the vig or the doctor should have the info/role tacked on.

So with all that said, I think a more balanced (and less frustrating setup for scum) would probably look something like this:

3x Town Mason + Town 3-Shot Vigilante Supersaint Enabler + Town Roaming Doctor + Town Strong-Willed Disloyal Simple Vanilla Cop + 7x VTs versus Mafia Ascetic Multitasking Alien + Mafia Supersaint + 2x Mafia Goon

Putting the enabler on the vig means that the vig has to weigh outing the info (and attracting the night kill) versus keeping it quiet and having town risk triggering the Supersaint. It also serves as a swing reducer in that if the vig dies early (as most of the game's power is in the masons and the vigilante), scum loses one of their powers as a tradeoff. 3-Shot Vigilante also seems to me like the proper amount; full vigilante would be too much (as it proved here) whereas one or two shot is far too few (as town doesn't have much power elsewhere). 3 or 4 shots seems about the right number; I went with 3 here because the current trend is to lean a bit more scumsided than townsided. The informed townie was dropped because in a setup where there is already a strong mason bloc, it's probably better not to give town too many extra roles (even if they are alignment neutral) just to ensure you don't run into the first issue I mentioned.

One other note: I said it before, but I would like to repeat it: the cigilante played very well here even despite the fact that what has happened might make you think otherwise. A good vigilante shoots players that are liabilities to the town win condition; by shooting two such liabilities this game, we (the town) gained a mislim that would've otherwise been wasted on one of those two. Context is very important in evaluating the quality of a vigilante's shots.

Aside from the above, the scum pt was a fun read, and I enjoyed playing with y'all. Thanks again for modding, Blade Dancer.