Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

[Dannflor]

VOTE: NoPowerOverMe

Ben, do you always open with random questions, and why do you choose to do so?

[Dannflor]

Are you suggesting wagons on inactive players are preferable?

[Dannflor]

Why are you so interested in RQS but think that lurking is ok?

Nobody is lurking 2 pages into the game.

[Dannflor]

NPOM, how do you intend to sort active players if not by pressuring/wagoning within them?

[Dannflor]

Honestly, all the talk about theory of whose wagoning is worthwhile or whether RVS is important is just noise. I don't feel it's productive for

anyone

to continue that line of discussion. The only reason I prodded it is because #11 is a very touchy reaction to being voted. In my opinion, it's not pro-town. Jury is still out on whether it's scummy.

Btw dannflor being IC is pretty good because he’s like, the number one guess for a deepwolf whenever he plays

This is a weird thing to say.

What are your reads, Gamma?

[Dannflor]

Honestly, all the talk about theory of whose wagoning is worthwhile or whether RVS is important is just noise. I don't feel it's productive for anyone to continue that line of discussion.

People should be voting at this point instead of doing this.

[Dannflor]

Dan being town removes a lot of paranoia but also a lot of meming

I can pretend for u

[Dannflor]

Man, this is so weird.

Every time someone so much as tangentially mentions me I get this paranoid burst of worry about pocketing and whether or not scum would actually say that about me.

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

After some reflection, I believe the following people to be townsfolk: Gamma, Hayker maybe, Ben, Alchemist maybe, NoPower (although he needs to drop the "anyone who attacks the townblock is Mafia" shtick). That leaves seven people within which I'll be focusing my energy for now.
UNVOTE: Gamma

Can you expand on your Gamma, Hayker, and Alchemist reads, please?

[Dannflor]

I can't come up with a reason (WIFOM-based or otherwise) that an experienced townie would act the way that Elements has.

Can you break down and ELI5 what exactly Elements has done that is out of line with expected experienced townie behavior?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Hayker

[Dannflor]

Alright, here's the deal. I believe Elements is town and the wagon on them sucks, for a variety of reasons.

A couple people have already claimed that I have above average reads as town, but you don't have to sheep me for that. In fact, I'd prefer you didn't. Instead, just consider my opinions and talk about them knowing that they're coming from a person who is confirmed town.

First of all, ben dover123 and NoPowerOverMe are both likely town. I won't be too loquacious on bendover since most players seem to agree that he's town. However, I will state that aside from just general feelings of obv-towniness from the motivation and quality of his posts, his "white knighting" of Lunar Martian is unlikely to come from a scum mindset. Essentially, bendover is trying to defend a slot as limbaity before they've even fully participated in the game, doesn't do so subtly, and continues to attract a lot of attention to himself staunchly defending his opinion. It's an unneeded reach for town cred as scum that doesn't really gain a whole lot. The more natural scum move would be to soft defend Lunar Martian later, if indeed the slot turns out to be limbaity. Overall, Ben doesn't strike me as the player to go for such a bold move just to desperately defend a potentially limbaity slot. Combined with his other posts, it's more likely that the defense comes from a town mindset that genuinely and desperately believes he needs to make his opinion on the Lunar Martian slot clear.

Mostly wanted to expound on that in case anyone does disagree because I think this is a safeish universal town read.

NPOM is a trickier read, and it has taken me a while to come around on this slot. But, I think my initial issues stemmed from playstyle differences more than anything else. A lot of this read is *vibe*, much in the same way the majority of my ben dover read is. It would be helpful to me if people who scum read this slot were very vocal as to the exact reasons why. There's been a few posts where I find his thought process hard to fake and

yknow what. I don't have to make up reasons for town reading people. I don't have to prove I'm town. I'm IC. deal with it.

Lunar Martian is also leaning town, not for being limbaity but for other reasons I'll expand on if people need them.

ELEMENTS is probably town and most of the reasons people have for scum reading them is bad? The wagon initially started on them for two reasons. The first is because they entered the game with the gimmick of "vote everyone at least once." Which... anyone who has played on this site for any amount of time should know a gimmick like that is probably not scum indicative. A few people threw around accusations that Elements as an experienced town player shouldn't behave this way (looking at you Kazyan), and failed to consider what reasons an experienced town player might have for such a gimmick. That is, to get reactions and start discussion. Most of Elements' posting, and indeed their playstyle, seems to be in engaging players that react to them and their actions.

UNVOTE: NPOM[/unvote

I don't like this
put your vote back

This post. Elements why are you telling other people to move their vote this early in the game?

The other reason is like this weird post by Alchemist where he considers Elements' feeling strongly about building a wagon scummy? Alchemist never really follows up on this and has since just floated on the vote, but I digress.

Both weird/bad reasons. The wagon has continued because of the perceived badness of Elements' focus on 1v1 interactions with people who suspect them. I don't think this is scummy, but it can be limbaity because people automatically suspect defensiveness in mafia. However, rather than pure defensiveness, I read their posts as trying to earnestly question the people who suspect them.

In fact, Elements reminds me a lot of Auro in Team Mafia 2020, who had a similar play style of arguing about people's suspicions of him, and remained the top D1 town wagon for quite some time because of it.

Elements [4]: Alchemist21, Kazyan, Hayker, NoPowerOverMe
Lunar Martian [1]: PenguinPower
NoPowerOverMe [1]: ben dover123
ben dover123 [1]: Gamma Emerald
PenguinPower [1]: Elements
Kazyan [1]: Papa Zito

Not voting [4]: HeWhoSwims, 2ndchosen1, Dannflor, Lunar Martian

I also just look at the wagon and I'm... not impressed. Aside from NPOM, I'm not town reading any of the slots on the wagon. Alchemist had a weird entrance where he said I had good reads as town even though I don't think I've ever played as town with him before? I could very well be wrong but aside from that he just hasn't really done anything this game besides sit on a weak Elements vote. Hayker seems more intent on justifying their actions then in actually following through with their actions (I can explain this more if needed). Kazyan, I honestly have difficulty reading.

Uh who else. Gamma Emerald could very well be scum this game. He has a lot of good surface level solvy posts but he's an experienced enough player to be able to fake a lot of those. In my mind he hasn't taken really any hard stances or done anything that I can confidently say is town for him yet.

I got light light town pings from HeWhoSwims but he obviously needs to post more...

Dannflor is town and I heard he has pretty good reads sometimes

=========

[PapaZito, 2ndchosen1, PenguinPower and Kazyan] are all kinda in this weird limbo of null because they either need more content or I can't parse their posts quite yet.

[Gamma/Alchemist/Hayker] lean more towards scum to varying levels of confidence.

I'd support wagons on any of the above.

[bendover, NPOM, Elements, Lunar Martian, HeWhoSwims] lean more towards town to varying levels of confidence.

Granted, these are all just basic impression formed off of 10 pages. And I'm sure they'll change drastically in the next 10. But wanted to get that out their as a log of a confirmed townie's thoughts.

My strongest/most important opinion is just the Elements wagon is weak and there's a reason I've been asking for more justification there. I would strongly prefer a wagon basically anywhere but in my three top town reads.

[Dannflor]

!!!!!!!!!! BEGIN PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT !!!!!!!!!!


PLAYSTYLE DISCUSSIONS DO NOT FIND SCUM

THIS GAME IS ENDLESSLY DEBATING PLAYSTYLE NONSENSE

LET'S FOCUS ON MESSAGE AND INTENT INSTEAD

THANK YOU IN ADVANCE


!!!!!!!!!! END PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT !!!!!!!!!!

hey this be a good post actually

papa z can be town

[Dannflor]

not being open-minded and instead forming opinions and judgements based on that game in order to defend me while I was away.

why is this suspicious to you?

[Dannflor]

gotcha, carry on

[Dannflor]

No, they just give me a green name to inform everyone of my alignment. I'm basically Dann's IC mason brother.

this is true

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Kayzan

I don’t buy the explanation in 376

it tastes of lamist

[Dannflor]

I like this post, especially the bit in the middle about Penguin. The bit at the end detracts from it though.

so uh, is it good or bad

how does it affect your view on Kazyan in general

why is the end bad

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Alchemist

[Dannflor]

I'm at work but I'll answer your question Penguin when I get home

[Dannflor]

So I spent a large part of my day yesterday reviewing an old game I played. Due to it, I believe Papa Zito to be town. Ill admit using meta from a long time ago is a bit foolish, but it gives me a read on him for the time being.

Hayker, can you go into specifically what about Zito's meta created this read for you?

[Dannflor]

bleep bloop I need to read Kazyan don't I

[Dannflor]

@PP, my town feelings on Lunar at the time mostly came down to their "cute" vote on me entering the game and then the way they reacted to bendover's automatic defense of them. They also don't spend a lot of time addressing the discourse around their slot at the time and instead go immediately into solving mode. Like instead of playing defense or attacking people for the early wagon on them, Lunar tries to dig deeper into the reasons for people's posts.

It's pretty surface level but it's where I got my feelings at the time.

[Dannflor]

Penguin, are you town?

[Dannflor]

Does scum!NoPowerOverMe really pursue a vanity wagon on Penguin while he has a perfectly viable counterwagon in Kazyan?

I guess the flaw in that theory is what if they're both scum, but I don't see a lot of people thinking that.

Lunar, can you expand on your maybe-town read on Kazyan for me please?

Also unrelated sidenote: I have a feeling 2ndchosen is being scum leaned simply for not having as much content as other players.

[Dannflor]

Kazyan, where is your head at? What are your reads at?

It looked like you wanted to vote Alchemist in your last post but you held off, is there a reason for that?

[Dannflor]

how wrong would it be to TR ben for that thing that just happened

Pretty wrong.

also

it's not like there isn't a dearth of other things to get a read off of him for

[Dannflor]

2ndchosen1's position is the most interesting of the 'lean town' group, I feel. 2nd pointed out my mistake after Alchemist did, and it would have been really easy to join the wagon on me. But it would have been too easy, and that a 2ndchosenScum would have realized that. It's not super clear.

How do you feel about Gamma's place on your wagon?

[Dannflor]

hmmmm

[Dannflor]

I think you'll find the disagreements in playstyle that is the basis in wagoning Penguin are about as shoddy as the disagreements in playstyle that were the basis for wagoning NPOM

[Dannflor]

I'm not saying Penguin is town

but like him not wall posting on D1 isn't scum indicative

[Dannflor]

I find a contradictive that penguin complains about a lack of wagons yet does not want to be active.

also like he's actively trying to contribute to wagons so at least there's that

[Dannflor]

Papa Z might be scum

[Dannflor]

Thank you for explaining that

I disagree that Zito has exactly been swinging hard this game

but that helped me read you a bit better

[Dannflor]

my heart of hearts tells me

[dannflor]
[bendover, elements, npom]
[lunar, hayker, 2nd chosen]
===
[heWhoSwims, kazyan, penguin]
[alchemist, gamma, papa zito]

something like that

[Dannflor]

</3

they won't night kill you this way

[Dannflor]

is there something wrong with the alchemist wagon, elements

[Dannflor]

this page makes me uncomfortable

[Dannflor]

gamma might be town

[Dannflor]

agar wagon is terrible

I really do not want to kill there today

[Dannflor]

hayker maybe? they need to post more

I would prefer in alchemist/papa Z tbh

[Dannflor]

mafia are gonna regret trying to kill meeeeee

[Dannflor]

what's your read on alchemist and why?

[Dannflor]

Now that I think about it, Alchemist was extremly lurky that game and I don't see that here.

you don't?

[Dannflor]

I'm not opposed to Hayker

[Dannflor]

Hayker what do you think of Agar's catchup

[Dannflor]

give me an alternative that isn't penguin

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Hayker

[Dannflor]

they really just came in to say "wow looks like there's a wagon" and avoided the big scum case Agar drew on them

[Dannflor]

I'm going to do a quick Alchemist iso because I don't understand the hate on that slot.

Hmm. His iso is such a mixed bag. I'll wait for a claim to opine further.

also I think these were scum posts but it seems like people don't want to elim here today

[Dannflor]

I don't think it's unlikely that the Alchemist wagon is all town, regardless of Alchemist's alignment

the wagon built quickly and sketchily, and I was very purposeful about not actually building a case on alchemist

people basically just shifted there reads there because I said so enough times

That's something that townies who are unsure what to do do

scum are gonna stay far away from that wagon if alchemist is town, like far far away, just naturally there's not gonna be anyway for them to get on in a way that they feel will be natural, whereas I feel like a lot of the 'unconscious sheeping' and even some of the conscious sheeping by Kazyan is townie. most scum's first instinct is to not look like they are just sheeping

a scum reaction to that wagon (again assuming Alch is town) looks a lot more like Papa Zito's I reckon, or possibly Hayker, although Hayker's was more of a non reaction

[Dannflor]

If I indulge in this hypothetical world for a moment, let's say I clear the alchemist wagon and double down on my Papa Zito/Hayker being scum reactions theory

that probably leaves a team of papa zito/Hayker/HeWhoSwims

premature solve but I don't think it's unrealistic just based on how the votes have been moving today

[Dannflor]

Gamma, I think I've been a bit too suspicious of. There's a very particular thing he tends to do when he's scum that I've seen 0 of here so far, and he's been very active so I think it would have cropped up by now. I'm willing to town bin him.

NPOM whiteknighting Alchemist in a town!Alchemist world isn't necessarily townie, but I do like the way he seems to be having a real effect in changing the wagon rather than just saying empty words to grab town cred later

[Dannflor]

It's weird, both Hayker and HeWhoSwims soft defended Penguin.

HeWhoSwims did so here

Hayker did here here

from recent memory, they are actually the only ones I've seen do that. at least Lunar and NPOM have been pretty against Penguin, I think others have been neutral at best.

Honestly, there is nothing to town read about Penguin's play. While, no, there isn't really anything to scum read either, I find it strange both of these slots find things to town read in Penguin's ISO. Neither really elaborate on what specifically they like or why they feel this way. To me, giving my working hypothesis has been that Penguin vs. NPOM and Lunar is a TvT clash of playstyles, the soft defense of Penguin seems like the type of read that oft comes from scum towards "low hanging fruit" or slots that may be considered easy to eliminate. They toss easy town reads that way without much thought because A. no one really cares about who town reads Penguin Power unless its me since two very loud players scum read him, and B. they figure they can scoop up free town cred just for throwing that read towards him later down the line

this could be a confbiasing point but that's just something odd that stuck out to me as I was rereading

[Dannflor]

the scummiest part about Hayker is based on the timing of how they've popped into the thread and what they've ignored in thread imo

[Dannflor]

People will vote, and we've got time left in the day.

But essentially, I don't think the specific bits and posts they've pulled out of the thread to comment on in their posts is indicative of a town mindset. Rather, they seem to just be looking for things to comment on. And just most recently, I would think Hayker would have something to say about the case against them or the possibility of their own elimination, but nothing. Let's say they missed all that or were low on time, they could have at least offered some input on what they thought about the E-1 wagon at the time or whether anyone on the wagon was scummy. Their last two posts were basically just coming in and saying "we've got an E-1 wagon" and "we should get a claim before ending the day." While earlier in their ISO is full of questions, I see the same pattern of more looking for things to say rather than engaging with the thread proper

[Dannflor]

Semi-related: NPOM's insistence on "Alch is town because I oppose this wagon and any time I oppose a Day 1 wagon, I'm right" and then providing two games to say that that's enough to be indicative is both :chef's kiss: for small sample size and also very bad.

yes it's bad

scummy? ehh

[Dannflor]

and tbh alchemist is still scummy

yes I have not cased him

but I do think the wagon on him tends towards clean regardless of his alignment. Like he could be town, but also his reaction to both the Hayker wagon and his own is weird. He refused to claim because no one had states there reasoning, but doesn't really do any deeper dive into the people who wagoned him and who might've been most suspicious. It just seems strange coming from town to not look at that further, after all the entire wagon on him can't be scum.

And idk his reaction to the Hayker case is just kinda classic "well I have to lend this some credence because it's my only viable counterwagon at this stage but also I need some plausible deniability if/when it flips town"

[Dannflor]

we don't hammer a doctor claim

we tell hayker to protect me and if I die then we kill hayker

[Dannflor]

I mean I still rather think it's a scum claim but I don't think it's optimal to kill it still

[Dannflor]

it leaves mafia in the position of being unable to kill the doc or the IC unless they wanna narrow down our pool of suspects significantly

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Alchemist

[Dannflor]

I called out Gamma’s vote as being just like the last time he misread me.

do you think his repetition of that mistake is alignment indicative one way or another?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: Hayker

[Dannflor]

the fuck

[Dannflor]

I assume PP was the vig shot

[Dannflor]

kinda mad it wasn't Hayker after that hammer tbh

[Dannflor]

agar was obv town

pp was miselimination bait

it seems obvious to me but it doesn't matter a ton

[Dannflor]

agar was bendover

also agar was the biggest proponent of killing Hayker

[Dannflor]

what

[Dannflor]

also uh look at the flip

[Dannflor]

I don't think this is real

[Dannflor]

Haha i completely misread macho. Welll shit im gonna go laugh myself to sleep

if you're town you need to be giving us a lot more effort right now

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE:

[Dannflor]

This is where I'm going to wish I had more experience on the site. How are power roles generally distributed? is the Macho cop/doctor combo to strong for most minis? I realize it's a closed setup but I'm unsure how the site balances. These questions are for Dann since he's only one that can give me a guaranteed town view.

It's not a particularly strong combo. I mean, having both a cop and a doctor is strong, but the cop being macho prevents the combination from being breakable. A macho role also generally indicates some kind of town protective role. In light of Alchemist's flip, Hayker's claim is less credible.

I'm also very suspect of town having a bulletproof townie, a JOAT with Penguin's Power (hehe), an innocent child, and ALSO a full ungated doctor.

Hayker, who did you protect last night?

[Dannflor]

I still think Hayker is suspect. To clarify, I unvoted because A. I want a chance for more people to spew this day phase, as it may or may not be the last time I'm alive in this game, and I have more things to say before I go. and B. I want the hammer.

[Dannflor]

I think it makes some sense.

[Dannflor]

Zito, who do you think is scum?

[Dannflor]

you have no scum reads outside of Hayker?

there were quite a few wagon movements D1 that wouldn't be considered sheeping. It wasn't until end of D1 where that occurred and it's quite understandable that there would be a lot of naked votes even without an IC then because we were running up against a deadline.

[Dannflor]

That's a weird assumption

[Dannflor]

Well, I took a step back for a bit to see if anything would happen without the IC sheeping excuse but I'm just pretty disappointed.

I do have some thoughts I'll unload here in a little bit. It's likely my last day alive so it'll be important.

[Dannflor]

I'd like to hear more from HeWhoSwims on who he thinks is scum.

[Dannflor]

Whoa, why do you want Lunar dead?

[Dannflor]

Okay, so Hayker is clearly scum. They are scum by their day play, their claim, and the other information that's been revealed about this game. And honestly, the longer we spend not killing him, the worse it is for town.

There's also something super secret special about my role that I haven't revealed yet that's pretty damning if I do say so myself.

Papa Zito is probably their scum buddy, and that's a very important thing to remember when I'm gone and Hayker flips red because he's clearly trying to set himself up to go deep in this game after Hayker flips red. The third scum could really be anyone, but I'd probably pick HeWhoSwims tbh for the egregious posts he made this day phase. However, after we flip Hayker the rest of the game is really up to all of you. I hope you all play a bit more after I'm gone.

So, let me spin you all a story of what scum has been doing for the past few days.

Part I: The Gambit

Hayker plays a not-so-towny Day 1. They start off with some awkward questioning and behave extremely oddly around the end of day. Alchemist reaches E-1 and understandably doesn't want to claim due to his role. Hayker, despite Agar mounting a case against them, and there being a lot of content since last time they posted, decides to simply say things like:

Anyways, it seems we have an E-1.

Traditionally we wait for a role claim⁹⁸

It's an awkward waiting game that just sort of screams "god I hope this day is over soon so I can stop pretending that I'm not really hunting for scum."

Hayker does claim they have limited power, okay. That still doesn't explain why they've chosen to respond to the very random things they've chosen to respond to when they do get a chance to pop in. Hell, Hayker's largest piece of content is a weird town case on Papa Zito no one really asked for. Unfortunately, Hayker's excuse doesn't really do anything to explain their play this game. Not to mention Agar's case on Hayker which goes more into detail on this front than I have.

But Hayker probably isn't going to survive very long no matter what. They haven't posted much and heavy suspicion is on them. What's the best thing a sinking scum player can do? Do as much damage to town as possible before going down. This is where the claim and quick hammer on Alchemist comes in. It's a gambit, we could not believe the doctor claim. But I told people to get off of him and get on Alchemist instead. Now, Hayker might have a shot at living even longer because of their claim, and they managed to swing the wagon away from scum at the same time. It's probably the best play they had at their disposal.

Part II: The Claim

I'm a doctor btw, since I've been brought to L-1. Get off me.

Then we have the claim. Because of Hayker's suspicious play, the wagon has swung back to Hayker rather quickly. If they want to avoid being eliminated, they have to do something quickly. And remember, scum are a lot more survivalistic than town in most cases. Hayker hasn't crumbed, they don't elaborate on their role like "oh I've been playing so passive because I'm the doctor," there's no story for it. It's just, "I'm the doctor haha you gotta stop voting me." It's pretty much the defacto mafia fake claim too. No one wants to accidentally kill the doctor, and as an added benefit, you might get the real town doctor to claim on your wait out.

In this case, this could have been a claim that Hayker came up with himself on the spot, or their scum buddies advised them to do. Here's the deal:

I'm not just an Innocent Child, I'm also a Jailkeeper Enabler. This means when I die, the Jailkeeper role will cease to function for all players. For those that don't know, the Jailkeeper behaves a bit like a combination between a doctor and a roleblocker, it is also traditionally a scum role. We can infer scum probably have a jailkeeper in this setup. Not only because the role is traditionally a red role, but because it makes sense balance wise. It is too swingy for my death to also involve town losing their jailkeeper, while my death also causing scum to lose their jailkeeper helps reduce swing. It also makes sense for scum to have a Jailkeeper in a game that has a town vig.

Okay, then. Scum have a jailkeeper, so what? Well, doctor becomes an even better fake claim for scum given they can semi-confirm themselves with it. That is, Hayker could actually protect against a vig shot and confirm themselves as a "doctor." It's a safe claim for scum to make in many ways. In a perfect world where the whole town belives in Hayker's "I misread the wiki schtick," Hayker might even live a whole other day phase.

Let's look at what we know about the setup, shall we? Let's even assume Hayker is town.

Innocent Child Jailkeeper Enabler
Town Jack-of-all-Trades (Neapolitan, Gunsmith, Tracker)
Bulletproof Townie
Town Vigilante
Town Doctor

Mafia Jailkeeper

This isn't balanced. The doctor does not make sense here as a town role. Let me quell any theories about this being a "role-madness" game, which I would be surprised Papa Zito himself didn't do if he wasn't scum. This is a normal game. While some normal games veer outside the expected bounds of PRs and number of mafia, most contain a standard number of mafia and a standard number of roles. Even games that have lots of PRs still try to be balanced. No matter what roles mafia have to after Jailkeeper, it doesn't make for a balanced team against the town powerhouse of a full doctor, a vigilante of some power, an investigative JOAT, an Innocent Child whose death HURTS the scum team, and a bulletproof townie. There's just no way to make that fair for scum.

How do we make this list fair for scum then? We remove the Town Doctor from the list. I'm fairly confident there aren't any other town power roles in this game, especially as I think they would have claimed by now in response to Hayker. Their claim does not make sense in this setup. This isn't even mod WIFOM, this is just simple reasoning that these roles can't co-exist for town. If this was a role-madness game, then it becomes even WORSE, because that means town has even more power we don't know about yet. And frankly, that's not possible.

The only reasonable explanation given the flips we have so far and the information I have, is that Hayker is lying and thus scum. No, him lying is not townie lying like Alchemist's was. It was purely to save his skin.

Part III: Damage Control

So, after that quick hammer by Hayker and apparent misread of Alchemist's role, Hayker was always going to be on the hot seat today. What is going to be the scum response to that? Well, Hayker is probably going to go down sooner or later. That is simply the byproduct of having Hayker quick hammer Alchemist in the way they did. Now, that doesn't mean scum isn't going to try and get some lasting value out of Hayker's slot, if they can't keep Hayker alive that is.

First, Hayker is wagoned as soon as D2 drops. Most of these reasons were already in my mind but I didn't share them because I wanted to see what scum might try to do if they thought maybe Hayker wasn't completely doomed. Myself, Gamma, and NPOM all immediately vote for Hayker.

Please don't slam a Hayker vote, I need to think.

Then this. Which is like, okay, fine. Zito didn't end up doing a lot D1, maybe he can finally spend some time obv-towning and nailing the rest of the scum team.

And, I think he's trying to perform towniness, but I've town read exactly 0 of his posts this day phase. I immediately thought Hayker had to be scum after seeing those flips, and I find it extremely curious that Zito didn't come to the same conclusion. Granted, I have slightly more information about the setup than he does, but instead he spends #765 WIFOMing about whether the doc claim could be real, and then says he'll do a deeper dive into the ISOs today. Okay, well that post was fairly useless. But he promises more content and analyzing. Most importantly, he doesn't want the day to go by before he can post more content.

Let me say that I do not read any of Hayker's posts since the day started as genuine. I think it is fairly clear cut that Hayker is scum, and while he MAY have not known what macho meant originally, his scum buddies certainly would have told him over the night phase. Likely, it was just a ploy to get the quick hammer out on a strong townie power role over scum as quickly and with as much plausible deniability as possible. By extension, the interaction between Papa Zito and Hayker in #766 reads rather... hollow to me. The "unless you'd care to explain" part gives the post a really weird tone. It's like Papa Zito wants to give Hayker an out despite how incredible Hayker's mistake is.

The rest of Papa Zito's posts this day phase have been, I'm sorry to say, useless. He's done a whole ton of busy work in posts like #773, #776, #801, #805, where he essentially just catalogs the game so far in vote form. It takes up a lot of space, and it looks impressive. But what is Papa Zito actually doing in these posts? What is he really saying? Did he uncover something that nobody had noticed from this "analysis?" Did this work help him progress his own reads? It doesn't seem so. Each of the posts is accompanied with something like "I'll go more in depth with this later," or "I don't really know what to make of any of this." The blaming of IC sheeping on not being able to get any info is just a really weird moment, not only because I've deliberately held back my influence on the game for large portions of it so that there wouldn't be such an influence, and also because Papa Zito uses it as an excuse to not do *any* analysis really. Like, one could still go deeper on the posters themselves and if the "sheeping" makes sense from a scum perspective or not, but having the IC influence be an excuse seems more useful to Papa Zito than anything else.

I don't really know how else to make this clearer than to say that Papa Zito's posts this day phase have been devoid of any real analysis or scum hunting. It does not seem to me he's really intent on looking for scum. Instead, his posts seem intentioned to make himself look townie by virtue of being content™. But there's nothing in the content. I've asked Zito about his reads, apparently Hayker is his top scum read, okay yes, obviously. But I would expect all of his work in recent posts to uncover something else relevant to his reads. What is it all for if not that? Now, apparently he scum reads Lunar, but nothing in his analysis really seems to support him coming to that conclusion. Instead, it seems to be a rather OMGUSy read.

In summary, Papa Zito's posts this day phase seem more focused on putting him a better position than actually finding scum. There seems to be no actual point to any of them, at least none that he's been able to articulate. As such, I can't help but feel his scum read on Hayker and subsequent interaction with him is scum theatre designed to give Papa Zito some town cred once Hayker flips with the potential of giving Hayker an out. There's a reason Papa Zito didn't instantly condemn Hayker as scum due to his claim when he came into Day 2, and I don't think it is because Papa Zito is inexperienced. Altogether, at least if Hayker isn't managed to be saved this day phase, at least mafia have bought time for Papa Zito to position himself better and hopefully have enough town cred to last until end game.

Part IV: The Third Mafia

The only remaining player I can really pick out as being a serious candidate for mafia is HeWhoSwims, and that is only reinforced by the posts he's made today. His ISO is threadbare to begin with, and most of the content they have is the fence-sitty and noncommittal stances that are inherent to unconfident scum players.

Idk. Maybe I believe too much in the good side of people or whatever but it would seem outlandish to me to fakeclaim a full doctor of all roles, place the hammer, defend the claim up and down and especially in a game where we already have 3PRs on the table right now -- would scum dare to do that? Would it be worth it to ask a possible other protective to "counterclaim", seeing if we have a doc its out on the table already, or is that incredibly dumb?

I don't know how experienced HeWhoSwims is, so I'm not going to expect him to know the ins and outs of role claiming. That isn't really what I take issue with here. What I take issue with is the odd framing of Hayker.

Why on earth does HeWhoSwims want to assume that Hayker is town so badly? I doubt it's because he believes too much in "the good side of people." He says Hayker has defended the claim "up and down" which is a very odd framing of the situation seeing as how Hayker has barely been active. It feels like HeWhoSwims wants to legitimize Hayker's claim by calling for a counterclaim and then saying Hayker's must be real once there is none. But honestly, if there were another town protective role, it would have counter claimed Hayker yesterday. This whole post just feels quite squicky in how it treats Hayker's slot as automatically innocent. Yes, scum would dare do that. I don't think any level of inexperience really explains how naive this post would have to be to be coming from town.

He also claims he doesn't know Hayker at all so this isn't based in any preconceived notion of the player or a relationship with them. HeWhoSwims also states that we at least shouldn't "eliminate Hayker right away." Which, if you really do believe Hayker is a Town Doctor, also is a weird way to approach Hayker's slot.

Part V: The Conclusion

We are killing Hayker today. I don't think there's anyway to justify them being town in this setup and their play has been aimed towards just surviving since at least halfway through Day 1.

The only reason I didn't ram through a Hayker elimination today was because I wanted to see how scum might position around their potentially falling scum buddy. There's been low activity overall this day phase, but I've managed to pick up a town tell in Gamma, confirm a town read on Kazyan, and while Lunar and elements haven't done much today, I haven't had any real reason to reconsider my old town reads of them.

Both Papa Zito and HeWhoSwims make sense as partners to Hayker as well as being scummy individually. Papa Zito's behavior and seeming desperation to slow the game down especially makes sense if these are his partners, as he probably feels some pressure to perform and be the scum member who makes it to end game. Nonetheless, there's enough to be suspect of each of these slots without the host of pre-flip associations.

Now, I could very well be wrong about my 3 picks for scum. But I'm not wrong about Hayker. Which is why we eliminate him today. I also strongly recommend vigging in Papa Zito/HeWhoSwims, even if I'm wrong there I think we hit 2/3 scum in that trifecta.

The longer this day goes on, the better it is for scum. Personally, I'd like to get the Hayker kill over with now. It's up to you guys to close out the game tomorrow, as I'll likely be dead. So, anyway:

VOTE: Hayker

anyone who wants to can hammer, just don't let Zito get off free for his posting this day phase

farewell and good luck tomorrow

pedit: hi unwnd

[Dannflor]

that's e-1

[Dannflor]

it's more condensed and may be conf-biased

but you can double check my sources

[Dannflor]

I'm by no means 100% confident that Papa Zito/HeWhoSwims are scum. But they are my absolute top picks and since I'm likely to not be participating in this game anymore soon, I would like people to take a long hard look at both of them and particularly my case on them. And if we still have a vig tonight, even better.

But yes, Hayker is #1 priority.

[Dannflor]

prove me wrong tomorrow then please, Zito

[Dannflor]

Your own experience has left you that could be Zito, but is there anyone on this wagon you could suspect for getting towncred? And by chance of Hayker just being doctor (which to me feels pretty implausible purely going off your own role, I especially agreed with that paragraph), where would you look then? I'm someone who is really interested in considering the gamestate which is why I don't ever bother with rereads. I like figuring out the agenda of scum and what it means based on overall feel

Well, no one else has really tried to reposition themselves greatly this day phase, so I would look for someone who was already well positioned and content to stay that way.

Honestly, that would lead me to look at your slot.

[Dannflor]

I'm feeling pretty confident in town!Gamma now.

Elements might be another candidate for complacent scumster

[Dannflor]

That would be helpful, I've gone back and forth on his alignment this game.

No one has really pushed anywhere significant this day phase. Everyone has been pretty content to sit back for the most part. This day phase isn't that long though, you could start from there as well and see what you make of the game state.

[Dannflor]

It would've been a lot easier if you'd interacted with me instead of sitting on a conclusion.

Your case is basically that I didn't want to rush the day and I put my notes in the thread. I think my progression to Hayker was pretty clear. I examined the Penguin votes and made progression on NPOM from that. I'd already expressed that Lunar is throwing shade, he did so with Penguin as well if you recall, that didn't come out of nowhere. Maybe you're due a re-read.

That's fair in that I've probably been a bit too suspicious of your want to slow down the day.

Perhaps if you put together a reads list I'd be able to figure out your progression more.

However, one of my biggest issues comes from how you've approached Hayker. Do you disagree with my analysis of the setup and his claim? I feel like you should have been more suspicious of him from the start, instead of the WIFOMy well it could go both ways post you started with. Am I wrong?

[Dannflor]

Tonalcheck and I'd disagree with you on Gamma, lot of his responses to me are pretty flat and posts like #615 in regards to his own attention span feels attributed to a guilty conscience where he knows he'd post more as town but instead is sorta listless. That's the definition I would ascribe to based on his content purely from ISO

I had Gamma as scum over Papa Zito until I reread him and found something I thought was towny, but I can't for the life of me remember what it was now. I'll try to find it in a little bit.

[Dannflor]

that makes sense

Gamma was a big scum read of mine throughout Day 1 and I just sort of lost it along the way

Zito caught my attention because I expected scum to be doing *something* in response to Hayker's position and Zito's posts didn't read as particularly townie in process to me

but like it's not impossible scum just aren't doing anything

[Dannflor]

let unwnd have some time to catch up and for people to interact more

I'll be busy for the rest of the day but hopefully will be back tonight or tomorrow

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE: Hayker

I think I owe Papa Zito at least the time spent rereading both his slot and Gamma's

alongside those who have been very quite like elements and Kazyan who really should be using this time to show they are town

[Dannflor]

quiet*

oops I'm tired

[Dannflor]

townies have to figure out the game. Scum only has to pretend to

"The mafia are not trying to figure out who the mafia is, and they posted something else instead."

[Dannflor]

I rather think Kazyan is town. I think most of the suspicion on their slot D1 was due to awkwardness that is not necessarily scum indicative, but your mileage may vary unwnd

Also, your slot unwnd was one of my top town reads after bendover/agar, who was night killed, which is why it may seem like I'm not treating you with much suspicion. I've liked your posting so far since replacing in but your predecessor wasn't the easiest read (certain not as easy as agar/bendover) so I haven't completely written off the possibility that you're a deep wolf. However, I think it's pretty unlikely. ~just for full transparency on where my thoughts are at.

I'm gonna try to be more transparent in general because I feel Papa Zito has a salient point in that I should have engaged more as I was developing my thought processes. However, it is annoying to have people blame IC influence and IC sheeping for inability to read people, and it feels like a way to either minimize my impact or do a deeper analysis on the game.

[Dannflor]

If you guys are so worried about offing me, point the vig shot in my direction.

ah yes so the scum jailkeeper can protect you?

[Dannflor]

I still think elements is worth looking at but I don't think any pressure will form on elements today.

to add on, what is this based off of? If it's based off of you being the defacto elimination, then there's no point pressuring anyone. The onus is rather on you to create that pressure.

[Dannflor]

This IC stuff is really screwing with things. It's too easy for people to just shadow one person.

scum are probably in there

That's a weird assumption

No it’s not, it’s completely logical. It’s a pretty unassailable move to follow to person who has confirmed town motives on one level, and it spares scum from forming real stances. Scum also love to discredit conftown and a good way to do that imo would be to pile on while claiming you’re sheeping the IC, then once that flips wrong the IC’s reads lose some credibility so if they push you you can attack that.

This is actually something I take serious issue with.

Not only does it not make sense because Penguin, someone who did the very same sheeping flipped town, but because Gamma arguably is within that group. I don't recall any serious push Gamma has made this game and both yesterday and today he's followed me onto a wagon. It just reeks of having no intention of actually scum hunting and just shading a group of people while doing no further analysis. I would take less issue with such a claim if Gamma did any work to decide WHO among that group might be scum. As it is, it's like he'd fine with nuking anyone within that group which is like... not a townie way of approaching things?

[Dannflor]

VOTE: hayker
Yeah I’m gonna need a damn good reason to believe PP gets killed over a doctor
Assuming AGar was a vig shot rn btw

Also this is a strange reaction to the night kills and a strange reason to vote Hayker

obviously PP wasn't the night kill. I originally thought this mistake was townie, because scum knows who they killed and probably would be too self aware to play dumb like that but eh... I don't really know if it's scummy but it's very weird here to make these assumptions.

[Dannflor]

!!!!!!!!!! BEGIN PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT !!!!!!!!!!


PLAYSTYLE DISCUSSIONS DO NOT FIND SCUM

THIS GAME IS ENDLESSLY DEBATING PLAYSTYLE NONSENSE

LET'S FOCUS ON MESSAGE AND INTENT INSTEAD

THANK YOU IN ADVANCE


!!!!!!!!!! END PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT !!!!!!!!!!

this is still one of the towniest posts in the game tbh i forgot about this

[Dannflor]

I'm frustrated because NPOM, Elements and Penguin were very clearly just sheeping along with the IC. I can't really derive anything from that.

This IC stuff is really screwing with things. It's too easy for people to just shadow one person.

This stuff rubbed me wrong for similar reasons Gamma's did, in that it seems like an easy way to shade a group of people and lowkey discredit me. But rereading, Gamma's approach is actually worse, as he claims scum are probably within that group, a statement Papa Zito challenges. PZ is venting frustration here about not being able to find scum, not just stopping there and labeling the IC sheeping group as "some amount of scum in there."

[Dannflor]

So I spent a large part of my day yesterday reviewing an old game I played. Due to it, I believe Papa Zito to be town. Ill admit using meta from a long time ago is a bit foolish, but it gives me a read on him for the time being.

I still dislike Elememts, but id like to take a some time to put pressure on Ben. Id like to place

FoS:ben

his behavior in many ways reminds me of zito in KH mafia. He is a very active player, but a lot of his early game posts were arguing zbout game theory, which as Zito thankfully pointed out, was not advancing discussion. He's had few comments here and there that come off as buddying, such as a small comment Bsn madd toward Kazyan about knowing whats up. Been waffling on NPOM all day.

So I spent a large part of my day yesterday reviewing an old game I played. Due to it, I believe Papa Zito to be town. Ill admit using meta from a long time ago is a bit foolish, but it gives me a read on him for the time being.

Hayker, can you go into specifically what about Zito's meta created this read for you?

In KH mafia he spent a lot of time speaking about the fluffier elements in the game. A disemblodied voice was talking to us for awhile, and Zito was quick to engage in long winded discussion regarding it's place, even though it was just talking to us. He also analyzed generic game data, how many posts and so forth, while requesting prods for players from our mod. The rest of his posts will comments on other posts, occasionally throwing out things he found suspicious while applying no pressure.

This game he has come out swinging hard, applying votes, asking questions, trying to dig for information. I found Zito's exchange with Kazyan in particular to be interesting. It felt like his questions were both intended to get into Kazyan's mind, while also providing insight to a new player in this game.

Now I will once again note there has been a literally decade since back then, but I feel there is a huge difference in playstyle.

Agar, I invite you to read Papa Zito's iso in kh mafia and tell me what you see in the playbstyle differences

viewtopic.php?t=12809&f=56&st=0&sk=t&sd ... er_sort=Go

As for why I didnt directly respond right away, I've been told in the oast it's not really a good use of time to respond to random wayward arguments towards you. I am aware I was asked to speculate in Agar's return, I have hsd very limited power on my phone as my electrical just was setup this morning from a moving process I did.

I'm a doctor btw, since I've been brought to L-1. Get off me.

One indicator of Zito's alignment probably lies in determining whether this progression from Hayker is more likely to be on a scum buddy or a random townie. Honestly, I should have examined this before I linked Hayker and Zito together because it's one of the most egregious relationships between them.

This read on Zito also has the curious status of being one of Hayker's only real pieces of content in the entire game. Looking at it now, I kind of read it more as a TMI read on a random townie? I'm curious in other people's thoughts on this, but in my experience, scum rarely spends most of their time early on in the game town casing a buddy (although it does happen). Instead, scum are more likely to pick a random townie to town case because it's easier to argue something that's true and produce content that way.

I don't see anything here that necessarily speaks to this being a buddy/buddy interaction, although I always thought it was odd how Zito never really commented on Hayker's fixation on his slot.

[Dannflor]

my town read on elements is far too stale and he's definitely been coasting since D1, wish he would do more

[Dannflor]

I feel the argument was hardly wayward, but I just...don't like that penguin and elements both jumped on that wagon so quickly together.

why should I think that this doctor call is even legit hayker?
I'd like to hear Penguin's and Element's reasoning or if it's just sheeping Agar?

there is 1 day as of this morning remaining. I've intent to hammer tonight at midnight if elements and penguin can provide said adequate explanation or if hayker doesn't provide one

someone asked about what I think of 2ndchosen1 as scum. While the slot doesn't have a lot of content, the content it does isn't bad? I don't really have any particular reason to scum read it over Hayker/Gamma/HeWhoSwims etc.

Also, this post doesn't necessarily feel buddied with Hayker. I don't think questioning the doctor claim as legit immediately after Hayker claims to get a last minute D1 wagon off of him is the first thing scum does in that situation.

[Dannflor]

@Gamma
hide the pain harold is a treasure, but why is the question about derp is worth asking when it doesn't really help to town or scum hunt?

I caught derp off awkward vibes really easy in the one game I played with them; if that's HWS I'm thinking HWS is town for not seeming like that atp

hmmm

[Dannflor]

Honestly, unless I'm all sorts of wrong about this game and like the NPOM/unwnd slot is scum it feels like mafia have given up. That's part of why I was so quick to jump to the Zito as scum theory simply because he was one of the few attempting to do *something* this day phase. But maybe the simpler solution is just that scum don't want to touch this day phase with a ten foot pole.

[Dannflor]

there's also the unsavory problem of Gamma being much more active elsewhere and not here at all

which is not like damning on it's own because I know town!Gamma can lurk but like... come play please?

[Dannflor]

Dannflor believes you could be defending him as a mate and he is being subservient to you (and your claim) because of this.

to be fair, I'm now believing Hayker was defending him as a TMI read

I'm still thinking we should push Elements or unwnd, scum 100% was sheeping the IC I feel

Is there anything more to your scum reads than this

[Dannflor]

I don't know if scum are just cornered.

perhaps "given up" isn't the best phrasing or the only possibility

I mean more to say that I'm not so sure scum have really had any motivation to create change this day phase. This could be due to a variety of reasons: apathy or IRL circumstances causing inactivity, or simply that they don't feel that they're in direct enough danger to need to make any drastic change

[Dannflor]

hello
I'm still thinking we should push Elements or unwnd, scum 100% was sheeping the IC I feel

hayker maybe? they need to post more

I would prefer in alchemist/papa Z tbh

VOTE: alchemist

E-1

hmmmm

[Dannflor]

That Gamma pop in was squicky

[Dannflor]

hayker did TMI read on PZ? as in to much information to sort? I still find player meta stuff to be icky. either way, Hayker's "casing" of PZ hardly changes my opinion on both of them.

as in, Hayker knows PZ is town, and the confidence in their town read comes from having that "too much information" about alignment that only scum has

[Dannflor]

hello!

[Dannflor]

i'm getting the "starting a new game of mafia after months of not playing and being washed up" jitters, very nostalgic

I was very lucky in that being confirmed town has helped me quite a bit with those jitters

have you read any of the game or are you replacing in blind?

[Dannflor]

if you want a summary of anything from my perspective let me know

[Dannflor]

if you wouldn't mind, could i get a quick summary of your reads, dann?

TOWN

[dannflor]
[unwnd, kazyan, 2ndchosen]

[lunar, elements, papa zito] --- APPROACHING NULL TO VARYING DEGREES

[hewhoswims, gamma]
[hayker]
SCUM

this is somewhere in the general vicinity of where I am right now, although I've had some recent fluctuations, I can expand on specific slots if you want, but I'm less solid on certain ones than others

My case on Hayker is in my ISO

I'm taking a bit of a step back right now to reread and let other people do stuff in the game without IC influence

[Dannflor]

Can someone tell my why they think LM is scum again?

Elements, can you explain why this was what you was on your mind coming into the thread?

[Dannflor]

Gamma, where are your reads at?

[Dannflor]

I did an iso dive on 2ndchosen1 and came away feeling he(?) is very town.

I agree on this

[Dannflor]

NPOM/unwnd - lack of any interaction with Hayker D1

this is an extremely weak case especially against someone that's pretty town read

[Dannflor]

I really really like nsg's solve of Gamma/elements/Hayker, although a lot of that comes from the fact that Gamma and element's posting has been really egregiously not towny this day phase.

I think Zito's response to my case on him was overall towny.

nsg is not completely cleared but like... I don't know if it's worthwhile reconsidering her when these slots exist. Maybe don't give her a completely free pass after I'm gone but definitely listen

[Dannflor]

why are people SRing PZ, his posting today has seemed quite good so either someone has to point out how it doesn't really add much or convince me to disregard that

A general list of my reads I've compiled
Dann _Town _ Mod announcement
PZ _ Townlean/??? _ D2 info delay + providing info + reads that seem accurate, if a bit WIFOMy
unwnd/NPOM _ Townlean/??? _ Both provide info by provoking town into engagement, unwnd asking Kazyan to not necessarily rethink the Hayker vote but to be sure and examine the situation carefully.
Kazyan _ ???/Townlean _ consistant explanation of motivation + thought out read on GE & LM - vote on hayker and be done with day = townlean
Gamma _ ??? _ Again, I can't get enough here, the recent pop-in seems more a result of the prod and I wouldn't make it negative, looking forward to elaboration post.
Elements _ ???/Scumlean _ When he does post it doesn't feel like it contributes much, purposely tries to obscure voting intentions.
LM _ Scumlean/??? _ PZ points out correctly that he attacks random people for reasons I see as flimsy. Has attacked PZ,Gamma, HWS, NPOM/unwnd, as for 905 ELI5? making a huff about being discredited earlier only makes it stand out more to me.
HWS _ Scumlean/??? _ Leans on player meta to defend hayker. Crappy role fishing. General Non-Participation(not just activity, but also content).
Hayker _ ScumHeavylean _ I don't care about KH mafia, I feel it's pretty easy to change gameplay even minutely, this game is currently more important.

I’d need to probe farther into this but I’m concerned about how weak these reads are. Even the most confident reads are given as leans, and there are a LOT of question marks.

Gamma, this is the exact type of posting I do as scum. I understand you are strapped for time, but you need to be spending your precious time in thread stating your own reads, defending stances, pushing people. Right now, you're simply making vague stances and asking other people to fill in the gaps. That's not towny, that's scum trying to create the illusion of content.

Focus less on asking other people what their opinions are when you need to be looking at the thread and generating content yourself, at least if you're town and want to win the game.

Also I really really feel 2ndchosen1 is town but I also think he's one of the easier miselim targets in the game so be aware of that

[Dannflor]

I was hoping for more from NSG as I still had a Scumlean on HWS and more interaction may have changed that. we'll see for D3. Considering the amount of replacement and apparant apathy on amount of prods. I will consider that most people have said their piece.

Yeah I still have a minor amount of paranoia but nsg's contributions have made that slot net town overall

like I said, don't act like the slot is cleared but I'd definitely listen to her solve first

Also HeWhoSwims was mostly PoE / awkward posting. It's not impossible that slot is scum, especially if NSG completely lurks away after this. But if I had to bet money, I'd say the slot is town

[Dannflor]

I'm still curious about your NPOM townread.

I know you and NSG both asked about this.

I don't have an answer that I imagine will be completely satisfactory to either of you, but it's largely been a gut read. I simply didn't feel NPOM was a slot that could post at the volume and with the presence he did so (by this I mean being competitive and taking stances on things in the game) as scum. Or if he could, he would have seemed significantly... scummier?

unwnd's entrance has mostly just affirmed this read. I think he's entered with some really deep and hard to fake reads on Gamma, etc. And while this could come from reading the game before replacement... I don't think it's very likely. That facade would break down eventually anyway. I would still put the slot as one of my most confident town reads. Also unwnd was not afraid to challenge me coming into the game which is not really something scum in that position seems want to do considering they were my top town read and I was hard pushing a solve.

I actually wanted to ask NSG why she was faltering in getting a definitive read on that slot, or if there was anything specific troubling her, but alas

[Dannflor]

Sorry if any of that is hard to parse. I'm typing very fast because idk when datisi is gonna lock the thread

[Dannflor]

Oh, I'm gonna do this now, but if the thread locks. Maybe look at the elements wagon early D1? I pulled people off of, but I'd be interested in seeing how Gamma + others reacted to that plus my forcing of people off of it

[Dannflor]

I like all of: Kazyan, Lunar Martian, 2ndchosen1 for town and I think there's a low probability any of them are like deep wolf material. Lunar/Kazyan might catch some flak for wanting to end the day early but I don't think that's a big deal in the end. I think they wanted to do it with a pro-town mindset and generally Hayker's partners are gonna want to avoid that type of spotlight

[Dannflor]

Kazyan, Lunar Martian, 2ndchosen1

coincidentally I also think this is the pool miselims are gonna be pushed in more than likely

[Dannflor]

Oh, I'm gonna do this now, but if the thread locks. Maybe look at the elements wagon early D1? I pulled people off of, but I'd be interested in seeing how Gamma + others reacted to that plus my forcing of people off of it

nvm they didn't really interact at all that I can see

[Dannflor]

Dann do you remember who all has pushed PZ today?

me and elements

[Dannflor]

unwnd what are your non-gamma reads

[Dannflor]

'm not sure how much an agar (assuming that penguin was the vig shot, which seems at the moment a decent assumption) kill makes sense with zito / hayker scum.

Yeah I'm pretty down on my "Papa Zito is Hayker's scum buddy" theory now

Mostly I was freaking at how quiet the game was and then Zito seemed to be the only one interacting with Hayker at all who I'd figured was caught scum

but I don't super feel like this is a game in which scum are being especially pro-active

[Dannflor]

oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)

@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so

I'm here but I can't promise quality

[Dannflor]

I actually defended elements quite early because he seemed very outrageous townie to me

[Dannflor]

vote:elements

I strongly dislike leaving a vote with no explanation. I'm not sure if the votes on lunar quite count as a bandwagon, but they feel opportunistic to me.

vote:elements

I strongly dislike leaving a vote with no explanation. I'm not sure if the votes on lunar quite count as a bandwagon, but they feel opportunistic to me.

VOTE: Hayker

[Dannflor]

oh man this is annoying, i get no quality dann time (probably)

@datisi how much bribe money for you to "forget" to check the thread for a day or so

I'm here but I can't promise quality

what's your best hypothesis for why agar was the nightkill? i've just realized that i can't really square it

is it a setup thing? they wanted to keep the jailkeep ability for one night more?

I don't know if scum are informed of my jailkeeper interaction. I'd imagine they might have to be? But if not they wouldn't know killing me is bad for them.

But, alternatively, it could just be that they weren't afraid of my reads and people seemed willing to sheep me enough that they were confident I'd just drive another mis elimination. Instead, they just killed my top town read, which I stated repeatedly was agar.

[Dannflor]

Scum being fine keeping me alive might clear Zito. He was next in line in my scum reads given what I posted in thread D1.

[Dannflor]

my heart of hearts tells me

[dannflor]
[bendover, elements, npom]
[lunar, hayker, 2nd chosen]
===
[heWhoSwims, kazyan, penguin]
[alchemist, gamma, papa zito]

something like that

I posted this halfway through D1 and then started saying Gamma might be town shortly after. It's not completely out of the realm of possibility that I had 3/3 scum in my top half.

[Dannflor]

Like, aside from condemning Hayker for sure for sure. I don't think I've been a particularly scary force at any point in this game. If mafia are informed as well, that's more than enough reason to not kill me.

I don't really think Agar was chosen for any reason in particular other than being widely town read

[Dannflor]

Check elements' trajectory on Gamma too

iirc elements had a town read on Gamma D1 but that shifted to putting him in the PoE today at some point

[Dannflor]

This could just be a game where scum kinda sucks and they're rolling over

don't say things like this and make me paranoid of you

oh well I won't have to deal with potential deep wolves for very much longer anyway

[Dannflor]

@dann how strong is your townread on kaz?

medium? I think Kaz overjustifies himself to the extent that it's towny. Meaning, he's overly transparent in a way that reminds me of myself in certain town games. I think there are a few posts (namely the one where he made like a 10 bullet point list to justify sheeping me off of elements that everyone jumped on) that seem surface level scummy, but I think that post and others like it reveal his mindset and are rather hard to fake as scum. I think people are noticing the self-awareness as scummy but missing how deep that his thought process is actually going 10 bullet points deep. He's not making up those reasons to seem towny, those are the actual things his mind is thinking through.

At least that's my take. Kaz could be scum but I haven't spent too much time paranoia-ing the slot because he's been one of the slots more consistently posting content that I'm happy with, similar to Lunar Martian.

also, any contingencies in the wild world where hayker flips town? don't have to dedicate too much time to it but it's worth at least considering, stranger things have happened and maybe he was just a townie deciding to fakeclaim

blargh. I don't really think it's worth considering or devoting time to. It would certainly explain more why the game was so inactive today?

My instinct would be to look more towards players that didn't necessarily want to kill Hayker right away. I think the game's natural response would be to be more paranoid of you/unwnd, but I don't think an implausible Hayker town flip automatically makes it any more likelier for either of you to be scum.

[Dannflor]

to rephrase that last sentence, don't automatically paranoia NSG/unwnd out of the game please if Hayker flips town

not that I think it's gonna happen at all

[Dannflor]

God I thought that was such a weird post at the time

especially since Hayker has been the defacto wagon since the day started, where the hell *did* Hayker think pressure was gonna form

[Dannflor]

I still very much feel elements is scum, since Friday he has asked for support on two wagons, supported another, and then a silent vote on Alchemist. One of the votes is basicslly asking dann is he'd like to wagon with him. This seems to be an empty persuit for now.

Of the current wagons, i like penguins Iso a bit more every time I read the posts. My biggest sus, elements, has pushed the alchemist wagon several times heavily. I also think Kazyan played rather nervously when the pressure was on them, and I'd like to know why.

vote:kazyan

Hayker had basically two reads this game: a town read on Zito and a scum read on elements. I wouldn't be surprised if his two most consistent reads were the most genuine ones. His other pushes were deeply half hearted fingers of suspicion and he always pushed his elements scum read first.

[Dannflor]

I'm glad you replaced in NSG~!

Next time try not replacing in right before I get brutally murdered

[Dannflor]

I honestly can't really explain my Lunar read btw, beyond just a deep feeling of... scum doesn't play like that?

[Dannflor]

Should I not be town reading you

[Dannflor]

Oh bad

[Dannflor]

I guess is makes some sense that mafia want to keep their jail keeper with a vig in the game.

Also I need to floss more. I use the long stringy floss but I always feel like I’m wasting it or doing it wrong.

[Dannflor]

I’m assuming Papa Zito was the NK here which is interesting.

[Dannflor]

Serial killer is non-normal IIRC

[Dannflor]

I have some thoughts to share but unfortunately my WiFi is down so it’ll have to wait until (hopefully) later today.

[Dannflor]

I still like her entrance as well. I wouldn’t necessarily jump to scum reading her just because she had one read wrong and wasn’t NKed, and not just because thinking about her being scum makes my stomach turn.

I do want to look at her *closer* but I’m not paranoiaing yet.

Same rather goes towards you but I think I’m more confident on you.

[Dannflor]

I haven’t had a chance to reread like I want to yet though since I’m limited to my phone. That’s fine though because I want to give Lunar/Kazyan/elements/2ndchosen some space to do work.

[Dannflor]

Please hold off on putting anyone within hammer range for a while

[Dannflor]

for the record, I have also been pondering the merits of a mass claim today

[Dannflor]

My dude. Why.

because getting another confirmed townie for today is tempting, especially when it may be worthwhile for the vig to holster tonight anyway

there are enough benefits that I find it a bit silly to say it is scummy for NSG to openly consider

[Dannflor]

Oh shit

I think I just realized why Agar was killed

[Dannflor]

HWS/NSG Scumread - calls for role fishing on HWS and nsg now, NSG even said I'm "pocketing" by simply providing analysis in 1022 which seems a subtle way of buddying town.

What does the fact that I was thinking along the same lines as NSG and NSG's explanation about the 2nd half of this do to this read, 2ndchosen?

[Dannflor]

NSG, how are you reading the NPOM/unwnd slot now?

[Dannflor]

I just find elements' quest to eliminate unwnd extremely weird. It feels unnatural from both a scum or town perspective. I've been trying to figure out if it feels so forced because its coming from a forced bus situation but... I don't know if that entirely holds water.

There's also the fact that I'm still alive. Yes, we can assume scum want to keep their jailkeeper since they know a vig is looking for them. But I feel if I was threatening enough to the team, I would certainly not still be alive on Day 3. My reads have definitely shifted quite a lot from day to day, but the fact I'm still alive has me reconsidering the reads I've held all game. Really, the only read I've consistently upheld since D1 is my town read on the NPOM/unwnd slot, which became my strongest town read defacto after Agar was killed. I had this thought that maybe Agar was killed not only because he was town read, but because it would confirm one of my top reads as correct and subtly reinforce my NPOM read... which it did. There's also the little thing of Agar having NPOM in his scum reads. I also started trying to consider this world more seriously after realizing there was some stuff about unwnd's posting today I didn't like.

But anyway, we also have stuff like this:

ben

and

dann

are heavy townreads.

Alchemist

and

Gamma

are light townreads.

Elements

is a scumread.

which like, is pretty heavy for so early D1. In fact, if those two were partners they'd essentially be hard bussing since the start of the game. I don't know how much sense that makes. It makes more sense after Hayker gets run up but not so much as early as they went after each other.

For some reason considering this makes me want to reconsider elements as just town that's playing really wonky, because the NPOM push is so weird and hard to parse. And I feel like the most off kilter things come from town more often? Maybe that's a faulty assumption.

I dunno. I'm playing mafia way too late at night for this to be properly coherent. I just also realized that my town read on unwnd specifically was oddly vacuous as well, so I started to consider worlds where he might be scum.

But all of this to also say that I also still think the slot is townier than other slots mostly because of NPOM, I just can't help but wonder if elements' weird push and my still being alive means that maybe I've been wrong on that slot. I think there's something about unwnd's posting specifically that has me paranoid but I can't quite figure out what exactly that is.

[Dannflor]

On the subject of mass claiming IC + Vig + another confirmable/semi-confirmable power role that straight up wins the game right?

There’s not another TPR

That’s the whole reason we eliminated Hayker

[Dannflor]

Everyone suddenly launching very weak attacks on NSG has me queasy

Yes, HeWhoSwims was not a great slot, but there’s no one that’s pushing anything about nsg’s own posting in good faith

[Dannflor]

2ndchosen, could I get a quick summary of the town reads you feel strongest about and why you feel that way when you get the chance?

[Dannflor]

If you could figure out more specifically what feels different that would be helpful, if you can

[Dannflor]

If you guys really think I shoot PZ because I'm worried that he scumread my slot I don't think I have a proper combination of words to describe how insane that'd be.

I mean... It's not insane with a vig in the game?

[Dannflor]

Sorry I haven't given this game my attention recently, I'll do so today

[Dannflor]

The problem is I think Lunar and Kazyan are town a lot of the time here.

Which means unless it is exactly elements/2ndchosen (and I feel like I had good reasons to town read 2ndchosen but maybe I'm totally wrong there) then there's scum in the nsg/unwnd group and ehhhhh... I would lean towards that being unwnd but that's really for no other reason other than I can't get a firm town read on unwnd.

But that might be my fault. I think I'm also pretty set on elements scum just because I think their behavior has gotten to the point where it's inexcusably weird for town. Not off the wall in the sense that town could plausibly think this way and do this, but crazy in the sense that it really seems evident that elements is not approaching this game from a town mindset.

[Dannflor]

You're looking for a team. Not a singular scum. Who is unwnd's partner?

It's not what your reads are, it's how you push them and the timing you do it. I could care less *that* you scum read unwnd, it's that you've done nothing but push that for 20 pages that has me thinking you're not really thinking about the game beyond that.

[Dannflor]

Kazyan, is that based off multiple people scum reading NSG? I like the graphic but I'm confused on the logical steps taking place afterwards.

[Dannflor]

To be fair... I don't really have any scum reads besides elements.

[Dannflor]

that would be quite the plot twist

[Dannflor]

I don't know, why don't you change your play after getting universally scum read?

[Dannflor]

nsg you still awake?

[Dannflor]

I feel a bit lost with this game at the moment

Why did you say this game will require the most/a great amount of attention from you?

[Dannflor]

I'm not a huge fan of #1307

like at all

[Dannflor]

Yeah I agree. Every time I pop into this game I can't seem to come to any concrete feelings just because my reads are so muddled.

I do think this is firmly NSG's town game and I'm not sure what I need to do to convince everyone of that. She's become the read I'm most sure of and I find it interesting there have been several attempted pushes on her this day phase.

[Dannflor]

I'm not a huge fan of #1307

like at all

it's classic iioa and despite bringing up two posts from two people in a somewhat critical manner he dodges really giving any reads, which is pretty important giving how little time we have

earlier when i unvoted elements i was considering kaz first given he's the commonality in kaz/elements and kaz/2nd, but then i re-metad elements

apologies if I missed this, does this mean you aren't considering 2nd/elements?

[Dannflor]

I'm willing to take a dirty meta read on NSG if you think it's strong enough, but a bit of elaboration helps

frankly, I don't think she has the motivation for all these solo solving sessions as scum

I've seen her scum game once and it was very reactive and it often felt like she was forcing herself to solve

I've read a few more of her games and while she can suffer from inactivity as both alignments due to business or whatever, it generally tends to affect her scum games more. I don't know that I would put this game completely out of her scum range just because I don't have enough direct experience with her to accurately make that judgement off of meta. But I think it's close to it.

There's a lot of little things about her posts like her trying to call out the scum team right away and then getting disappointed later when she didn't get those bragging points that are all very emblematic of her town game. In general, the fact that she's been so active and *unprompted* already puts her inside her town meta. But more specifically, I think the motivation behind her posts is clear and genuine and the solo solving moments seem clearly geared towards trying to get something out of the game than engineered to appear town.

[Dannflor]

am I crazy for saying an elements/Lunar Martian makes a lot of sense to me

[Dannflor]

Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.

No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.

{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.

VOTE: Hayker

this kill makes a lot more sense if two names in Agar's yeet 3 are scum. I have no decent reason to think NPOM/unwnd is scum.

then there's also the fact of LM and elements just suddenly softly bussing each other this day phase

Previously, they both had some sort of town read on the other, but that suddenly changed round about when nsg came out with a scum read on elements. There's no clear reason for this shift either.

And as much as I tonally town read LM's D1, this and the last day phase has been a lot of poking and prodding and wheel spinning. (granted that's been a lot of us, but rereading it feels less genuine)

[Dannflor]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

I thought that too but I just find their read histories of each other weird

[Dannflor]

Can someone tell my why they think LM is scum again?

It's unwnd
If not it's LM and Kazyan
But if it's not unwnd my reads are total garbage

what if it is kazyan and LM

[Dannflor]

I want to give a list of my thoughts.
These folks are of the Town: Gamma, Hayker, Ben, Kazyan probably, Papa Zito maybe.
Elements has a fair shot of being Town.
Unsure of Alchemist, HeWhoSwims, and 2ndchosen1.
I think PenguinPower and NoPower are probably my two top picks for Mafia.

OK nevermind. I don't really see the issue with what Elements said though?

I think northsidegal is Town for what it's worth. I agree with her reads so far to an almost alarming degree. The only thing I disagree with is that I have Papa as Mafia over elements.

i also think that we never

really

hammered out a truly satisfying reason for agar being killed, and with more insight now we might be able to look back and figure out a better reason. at the very least it helps to know for certain that hayker was scum.

I think NSG makes a very good point that we should look into. Especially the bit about scum!unwnd

don't try to twist what i say for yourself.

Feels like distancing between Elements and northsidegal.

I dunno

Maybe something happened between day phases that I'm not seeing, it's just a really weird coincidence that it suddenly changed for both of them without much explanation

[Dannflor]

I think scum's goal here is surviability. Do what seems the most townie. I think 2ndchosen would fit this description the best but I worry that they simply just believe in their way of playing. From what I understood, 2ndchosen is from another site where Hayker invited them to play here. I think 2ndchosen in one of his responses to me why he didn't vote Hayker initially is that 'we typically don't vote the doc if there isn't a cc.' It's such a puzzling way to justify not voting a mate when all the cred is waiting for you. Furthermore, I'm pretty sure Hayker didn't focus on 2ndchosen that much? If my memory serves me right. You'd think with the direct relationship they would be more present in reading each other, but instead there is a clear distance between the two. The awkwardness there made me want to press 2ndchosen further, but instead of getting something I could pick up on, he just still has this very alien approach to the game that really doesn't match the way I think about it.

To be fair... I originally instructed not to vote Hayker when he originally claimed D1. I think 2ndchosen was referencing that.

I think this is a good analysis though and I didn't pick up on their connection. I owe 2ndchosen a closer reading

[Dannflor]

I also think what town thinks scum's goal should be is often not what scum end up actually doing simply because actively going for that specific goal is out of their skill range. Meaning I think there's a lot of scum players that just don't know how to play for specific goals beyond the basics of trying to look townie

[Dannflor]

maybe a little crazy, lunar has been going pretty hard on elements which i guess defies my expectations of how a scum lunar plays around his scumbuddy

I thought that too but I just find their read histories of each other weird

fair, checking lunar's ISO today has been more of a death tunnel on elements than i realized before you brought it up

It just comes out of nowhere and I don't get as much of a sense that Lunar is trying to solve the game this phase than I do from Kazyan or even 2ndchosen

[Dannflor]

Why would scum after losing one mate just decide to throw the other aside unless they were very confident they were fooling town in the first place.

I guess this is kind of why I just suddenly started considering Lunar. As far as I remember no one has really thrown any suspicion in his direction for quite some time

[Dannflor]

I also think what town thinks scum's goal should be is often not what scum end up actually doing simply because actively going for that specific goal is out of their skill range. Meaning I think there's a lot of scum players that just don't know how to play for specific goals beyond the basics of trying to look townie

this is definitely true, only the more "power" scumplayers on site really actively go hard on goals that benefit them, most scum players tend to just try to imitate their town game

funnily enough in my experience this sometimes makes "powerwolves" easier to catch, because both they make themselves really prominent through their pushing and they don't try to imitate their town game as much. i've caught alisae a few times like that, for example. the real problem there comes in pushing them

Yeah I myself don't even know how to play in that goal oriented way at scum, I'm still stuck at that town-emulation level

and honestly, I don't really think any of our current suspects can play to that level? admittedly I don't have a lot of experience with any of them but it's usually pretty easy to tell when a player has that type of range

[Dannflor]

It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read

I'm not really considering NSG at all at this point

[Dannflor]

Cause if true, then what I said about scum being really confident they can win this game with another mate down is telling.

I don't really think this has to be true at all either though

scum, *especially* inexperienced scum can often resort to bussing before they need to precisely because they're starting to feel cornered and they think that'll magically fix it

I don't think it's right to assume that elements being scum means their partner has to be someone who is confident in being town read

[Dannflor]

i won't go hard on self meta here (in fact this will probably be my one and only post on it this game), but i am hilariously obviously playing my town game here. i don't think i've ever once made a post like my case on elements as scum

I mean I can reinforce this.

No offense to nsg, but this game is beyond the range of any scum game I've ever read from nsg, and I've read a few.

NSG also has somewhat of a reputation of being a polarized player, if that helps unwnd.

[Dannflor]

how set are you on elements scum in the first place

not like "will never reconsider dead set" set, but like, pretty set?