TM 2021 Large Normal: OEIS Mafia (Part Two Is Out)

[mastina]

As a very prominent NRG member who received a town role PM, I call dibs on being the N1 nightkill due to my ability to setup spec accurately for Normals being a threat the longer the game goes on.

(Hi I am replacing JacksonVirgo! I don't have access to my team's PT, presumably the mods're gonna fix that soon, so if you wanna have me pass on messages from them it'll need to wait a bit, but I DO have my role PM for this game so I can presumably work on getting caught up here.)

[mastina]

For the record, my current plan is to keep up to date with the current thread while catching up, since reading 76 pages seems doable for me. May take a little time to read it all, maybe a couple of days, but that's why I wanna do the 'keep up to date with the current thread' approach at the same time.

[mastina]

first

Hello friends.

blacklisting all of the worsts teammates worked beautifully

Town.

blacklisting all of the worsts teammates worked beautifully

Town?

yoooo I was really excited for this to start and wrote an intro post this morning while I was hyped up on coffee and a fresh town flip but

Scum.

VOTE: hercule

Best page one reads ever. <3

[mastina]

VOTE: hercule

Already nervous.

Town.

Hi
VOTE: dannflor

Scum?

VOTE: the worst

Dannflor is a Don-Corelone level of scum player and his entrance into the game is so tremendously scum that there's no way he's anything other than Town.

VOTE: danfloor
Found scum!

This reaction is pure Town tho.

new year new okapoka let's see how long i can lurk before the chains of self restraint are broken

POE-pool: not town, not scum, but if I come up short in scumreads, would be a default fill.

Let's see if that's enough for a readslist!

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor

Xtoxm

Titus
Almost50
unwnd
Hopkirk
Dunnstral
AGar
innocentvillager
Uncrowned

OkaPoka

Cephrir

hercule

Well wadda ya know, it is! Well, vaguely. Let's see if we can do even better.

[mastina]

Oops. Made a mistake.
Xtoxm's not town?, that's innocentvillager; Xtoxm is town.

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Xtoxm

innocentvillager

Titus
Almost50
unwnd
Hopkirk
Dunnstral
AGar
Uncrowned

OkaPoka

Cephrir

hercule

More accurate.

[mastina]

im going to use mastina's catchup as a way to reread the thread so thank you mastina lol

You'll end up sorely disappointed.
(I'm not only probably gonna take extra time as I'll probably be watching the LCK simultaneous to listening to a DbD streamer, but also I tend to stop quoting posts once I get reads established and this is looking an awful lot like a game where I'll have established reads within the first 5 pages. Maybe 10, if it's the same people talking on the next few pages.)

[mastina]

VOTE: Agar
If you think Dann's scummy, why aren't you voting him?

Town. <3

Believable, if they're in a private topic together. One which may have red in it.

Sup wit dis?

Possible scum, but not to the point where I'd label 'Scum?'. Might be lowercase '?scum???' tho.

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Titus
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Xtoxm

innocentvillager

Almost50
unwnd
Hopkirk
Dunnstral
Uncrowned

OkaPoka

AGar

Cephrir

hercule

Locktown lean town let's-guess-town let's-guess-scum scumlean scumreadish scumread.

[mastina]

Btw I believe Almost50 is town. My first instinct on unwnd was scum but in the followthrough post I got enough doubt to go back to null there, sooooo:
the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Titus
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Xtoxm

Almost50
innocentvillager

unwnd
Hopkirk
Dunnstral
Uncrowned

OkaPoka

AGar

Cephrir

hercule

[mastina]

Comment was related to my vote on IV, thought it was evident

hmm I did a few things irl between seeing your IV vote and reading that, so I may have just context failed. I'm pretty tired. Actually my post read as snippier than my brain was trying to be. Better counterpoint: IV is addicted to saying cute nonsense. This daystart is absolutely typical of IV as either alignment. Has anything else he's done struck you as alignment indicative or just the fluffy comments? Someone on my team agrees with you btw (but I haven't asked for their reasoning yet)

From what I understand, IV likes being town. His best option if he's not town is to lead with nonsense and then assume someone town reads him by his gestures; this can include fluffy nonsense. The way he convinced himself that you were scummy did not sit right for me.

VOTE: InnocentVillager

This is enough to make me sway towards leaning town on unwnd and Dunn's entrance looks promising for him, too, soooo:

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Titus
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Xtoxm

Almost50
unwnd
Dunnstral
innocentvillager

Hopkirk
Uncrowned

OkaPoka

AGar

Cephrir

hercule

It took one page longer than I said, but I legit think that from the first six pages, the game is approaching rapidly "for D1, this is plenty good for an initial solve" territory, where this is in of itself good enough of a working spot for D1.

Because between the locktown, the lean town, the guessing-town, the guessing-scum, the weak scumlean, the strong scumlean, and the scumread, with 14 town and 4 scum, this is basically in the zone.

[mastina]

Someone probably said the best way to know someone is through their enemies. I noticed some of you hadn’t played with me before, so I thought sharing my blacklist for this event might provide some insight into what kind of person I am:

This also lends me to think town, too.

The followthrough posting is enough to elevate that to 'lock', too.

(Also, pretty sure Ceph's scum here now.)

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Titus
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Hopkirk
Xtoxm

Almost50
unwnd
Dunnstral
innocentvillager

Uncrowned

OkaPoka

AGar

Cephrir
hercule

Locktown lean town guessing-town guessing-scum leaning-scum scumreading.

[mastina]

(Also, pretty sure Ceph's scum here now.)

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Titus
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Hopkirk
Xtoxm

Almost50
unwnd
Dunnstral
innocentvillager

Uncrowned

OkaPoka

AGar

Cephrir
hercule

Locktown lean town guessing-town guessing-scum leaning-scum scumreading.

Pagetopping this. <3

[mastina]

Oka feels like town through the last few pages

I'll let you know when I get to them.

[mastina]

Hi. Uncrowned here. Ythan is Town. ABR is probably Town. Dunnstral is probably Town. Hopkirk's reasoning on JV's intro is reasonable, but I believe it is NAI for JV given the history between them, myself and The Worst. I don't think a teammate reading the game is indicative of anything, but I guess I get the sentiment? I don't think The Worst has been that awkward, I think that's just how he be sometimes.

(This post is utterly null to me btw--the reads/reasons all are good/solid imo but the way they are given looks like it very well could be just scum presenting good reads.)

[mastina]

(For the record Winter Flakes's tone feels very very fake, very very artificial.
I'm somewhat doubting the innocentvillager townread, which I can afford to do, but the townpings aren't gone, just...in flux, to a state of ambivalence.)

[mastina]

oh you're the new JV
I'm tentative and scared but still excited

Scumclaim since I am town and the only reason to thus be scared of me is if they're scum.













































































































(<3 the worst)

[mastina]

Through page 10.

the worst
Ythan
DrippingGoofball
Titus
Albert B. Rampage
Dannflor
Hopkirk
Xtoxm

Almost50
unwnd
Dunnstral
innocentvillager

OkaPoka

Uncrowned

AGar

Cephrir
hercule

Yes, Oka and Uncrowned have traded places, tho I admit that's in part due to Oka-tw's conversation right now.
But also Uncrowned just doesn't sound town at all.

[mastina]

what happened to the classic "mastina catchup" structure?

Where I don't stay up to date on the current things but read past pages?

I almost never do it when I am a replacement, and when I do, it's probably due to the game being a manageable length where I can read it in one go, in like the span of an hour, and then posts made after my replacement I can read as I finish the readthrough.

But for a game of this length, doing so is impossible, so it's necessary to make a choice:
Read the current posts while also catching up...
...Or stay behind for days, literal days, missing all of the new content no matter how important it may be. Having no clue what the votes are, having no clue how much time is in the game, having no clue what claims are made, and potentially, wasting huge amounts of time, both my own and that of others. (To give a hypothetical example, say someone was an outed mason--if I was unaware of that, then reading through the thread, I'd be wasting time trying to read the mason, as an example.)

This is just the smarter approach as a replacement.

Tho that said.
I have read 13 pages, but at this point I'm not critically analyzing what I'm reading anymore. Reading it to understand game events would be fine, but reading it to analyze it is something I can no longer do. So, unable to analyze the earlier pages critically, I'll just do this:

Xtoxm (8): OkaPoka,

hercule

, the worst, DrippingGoofball, Dunnstral,

Cephrir

, Albert B. Rampage, Titus

Guess where I think the scum are here?

[mastina]

Vote Count 1.14

Xtoxm

(7): OkaPoka, hercule, the worst, DrippingGoofball, Dunnstral, Cephrir, Titus

AGar

(2): Dannflor, Ythan

Titus

(2): AGar, innocentvillager

DrippingGoofball

(2): Almost50, unwnd

mastina

(1): Winter Flakes

hercule

(1): mastina

unwnd

(1): Hopkirk

the worst

(1): Albert B. Rampage

Not Voting

(1): Xtoxm

For the record: I would like to reiterate that I don't think the Xtoxm wagon's very good. I don't think it's scumdriven, per se, but I think it's a wagon on town that has scum on it.

The AGar wagon is pretty good, would support; the Titus wagon? Less so. I'm disinclined to wagon DGB since literally the only reason I could ever think of for her to be scum is that she's saner than I am used to seeing from her play. And that should be fairly self-evident for why it's not a good place to vote imo.

I do townread unwnd and the worst, tho while I would discourage a tw wagon D1 I can't as strongly defend unwnd.

But I do need to catch up on the game. (Like I said, it'll be difficult right now, am weirdly tired for no good reason which makes critical analysis of posts a bit harder; I've been reading posts but not truly processing/analyzing them. So may have to wait for tomorrow. By which time I'll hopefully have the connection to my team to help back me up, too.)

I do feel like my reads are in a pretty good spot right now. I doubt they're perfect, but for D1 they just feel pretty damn good/reasonably strong. I just need to critically analyze the pages to follow to see if it holds.

[mastina]

Vote Count 1.7

AGar

(8): Titus, unwnd, Cephrir, OkaPoka, Dannflor, DrippingGoofball, Albert B. Rampage, Ythan

Winter Flakes

(2): hercule, JacksonVirgo

the worst

(1): Hopkirk

Ythan

(1): Almost50

JacksonVirgo

(1): the worst

innocentvillager

(1): Dunnstral

OkaPoka

(1): innocentvillager

Cephrir

(1): AGar

Almost50

(1): Winter Flakes

Not Voting

(1): Xtoxm

For the record--that AGar wagon, aside from Ceph (who I'm inclined to believe would bus here if scum anyway), looks awfully sexy. The names joining and the order they joined look highly town-driven. It just feels pure. That doesn't guarantee the wagon's on scum (towndriven wagons on town are a thing), but I definitely would encourage people to revisit this because it feels good.

Vote Count 1.9 (unchanged)

AGar

(6): Titus, unwnd, Cephrir, Dannflor, DrippingGoofball, Ythan

Titus

(4): AGar, innocentvillager, OkaPoka, the worst

Winter Flakes

(2): hercule, JacksonVirgo

the worst

(2): Hopkirk, Albert B. Rampage

Ythan

(1): Almost50

innocentvillager

(1): Dunnstral

JacksonVirgo

(1): Winter Flakes

Not Voting

(1): Xtoxm

Here the Titus wagon is pretty terrible tho. While I townread the worst here and don't want him to be eliminated, the dude IS a don corelone level scum player so I could be wrong on him and him be scum here. (Basically: I townread tw, but if I were to be wrong on him and if he were to be scum, it'd be due to being in a spot like on Titus here, the cw to AGar.) OkaPoka and IV are two of the slots most in flux so I could easily see them as scum.

Basically, the Titus wagon is absolute ass. It's probably still mostly town. Anywhere from 2-4 town on it. Probably 3. But it's pretty terrible here compared to the AGar wagon whose only black spot is Cephrir (who would bus anyway).

I'm not sure AGar is scum, but I do lean that way so if the choices were Xtoxm or AGar, I'd hop to AGar in a heartbeat.

Right now I'm fine with my vote on hercule tho, vanity vote be damned. (And could easily swap to Winter Flakes. Still vanity there.)

[mastina]

MASTINA !! HOW DARE YOU SHOW YOUR FACE AFTER YOU TURN THE INVITATION TO OUR TEAM DOWN!

I'M SORRY, AT THE TIME I WAS TAKEN.

this is going to be a long game for you then

Not if I inevitably end up as an early nightkill.

(I'm assuming you have access to the discord?)

I had access to neither, until today. (I now have access to both.) Me having the same scumreads as my predecessor is legit just coincidence, tho I suppose it's a sign that I'm as good of a replacement as could possibly be since I got the same reads without isoing my predecessor and without the discord and without the team PT, just developing them on my own.

so why is the Titus wagon worse than the AGar wagon besides just saying it is?

Aside from the players on it, there's also the fact that it's a wagon on Titus rather than a wagon on AGar.

Can you talk about your Hercule scumread?

I wish, but all I really got is that hercule's posts look like scum through and through. I don't really have objective reasoning for why. Everything from hercule just feels forced and fake, and looks like scum that doesn't know how to be town in a playerlist filled to the brim with greats. I just don't see anything town in hercule at all, and the few stances I've seen from hercule feel slimy.

[mastina]

i completely missed that xtoxm checked in, what a lame post

Cephrir's prior posts I wasn't going to call scum; this one however I feel I have every right to.

Plus, I was Xtoxm's teammate last year. This was him as scum; he had no reliance on teammates that year at all, it was pretty much all him.

I do genuinely believe that Auro having an investment in this game is good evidence for him being town, and his content this game just feels different from last time where he was scum.

[mastina]

It's strange how confident she is in her reads list based off the the first 15 pages in a near 80 page game.

?
Dann...you've...played with me before???

Also, I'm not a don corleone level scum player.

I disagree.

But I think mastina gets more readable as her trajectories become clearer, and she hasn't had time to form trajectories yet.

I've had 15 pages' worth, that's plenty. I've got a working rudimentary solve, one which feels more than sufficient for D1.

The early pages feel like a literal goldmine of information in terms of getting good initial reads. Are they going to be perfect reads? Hell no, of course not. But are they going to be good enough reads for D1? I legit think so. I'm awake now so I can read the following 60ish pages I didn't last night, but if you're expecting major shifts in my reads, I'm telling you now: barring some extreme situation in those pages, I just don't think much is going to change.

I may get slightly refined reads on lesser townreads, might get major flux-reads more locked down into a far more definitive placement. But I'm not expecting any serious turn-the-world-upside-down reevaluation; the first 15 pages just

feel

like enough to have, mostly, gotten the game down on lock, at least good enough of a lock for D1.

(I'm holding off from evaluating ABR and the likes of Cephrir from your readslist because I wanna evaluate that content myself with context to see if I agree with it or not.)

[mastina]

mastina, could you give me a deeper look on Hercule and why you think it's scum? I might've wrote him off too soon

Can you talk about your Hercule scumread?

I wish, but all I really got is that hercule's posts look like scum through and through. I don't really have objective reasoning for why. Everything from hercule just feels forced and fake, and looks like scum that doesn't know how to be town in a playerlist filled to the brim with greats. I just don't see anything town in hercule at all, and the few stances I've seen from hercule feel slimy.

Basically, hercule oozes vibe of scumminess in a way only matched by Cephrir to me. Nothing looks town, nothing even looks null for hercule (Ceph at least has that much with posts that're nai), it all looks like scum.

I don't see the town at all, but this does come at the disclaimer of needing to read 60ish pages.

Choo choo

For the record: I feel like if ABR were scum here, he'd have deliberately played in a way to get wagoned earlier-on. I had the privilege of having access to a scum PT where ABR explained his scum methodology, which he had the mod redact before the PT was released to the public. So I feel like I have slightly more insight into scum-ABR's methodology than most, although admittedly not only stale (this was like 1-2 years ago) but also rusty (I only vaguely remember the scumgame of his, I was watching the scum PT but that doesn't mean I have photogenic memory of his posts in it).

Him getting wagoned later into the day actually makes me think he's town.

[mastina]

I don't get why an ABR wagon sprang up.

Because people wanna replace one wagon on town that's being scumread for understandable but ultimately wrong reasons, for a different wagon on town that's being scumread for understandable but ultimately wrong reasons.

[mastina]

jhas mastina played with scum!you since AvP?

I don't think so, which is where some of my confusion comes from: was I in any way lacking in confidence in Ali v Pine, at literally any point in the game? I'm PRETTY sure I never was, that I held conviction the entire time.

In fact, in the entirety of the last three years...I'm pretty sure that the number of games where I didn't hold conviction can be counted on a single hand. (Possibly, a single finger since only one comes to mind, but it's possible there's 1-4 others I've forgotten I lacked conviction in. Me lacking in confidence is a thing that does happen, but it is a very notable rarity.)

Like, to give a fairly recent example: I was instantly confident in Among Us mafia. That was a game I replaced into with so many pages that I ended up not reading them at all. Getting confident reads off of literally no info wasn't an issue there; why would it be an issue here when I've got an incredibly dense pool of info?

[mastina]

Big egos come out in Team Mafia.

Basically, yeah.

How common is it in current meta (e.g not exclusive to a player) for them to go 'oh yeah I don't give a shit about this wagon on me', because people are so prone to emotion these days lol

VERY uncommon. Most scum in the current meta end up fairly defensive, and unfortunately, so do a lot of town. (Scum defensiveness is notably more common than town defensiveness, but town defensiveness is a thing.)

ABR is a player I'd expect to not conform to the meta regardless of his alignment, to play his own style of game, but I will say this:
I feel like if ABR were actually scum here, he would be efforting. Not in self-defense, but in hyper-aggression.

Him not defending himself isn't what I'd call town--him not going hyper-aggro while he is under pressure IS.

[mastina]

And there has been plenty of times where scum has been 'caught' but town loses momentum and interest and they slip by even though they were 'caught'.

Sure, but come a future day, say by D3-5 in that range.

Y'all are gonna look back at the mislynches on the slots like ABR and Xtoxm, scrutinize their wagons looking for the scum on them, and be wondering... "why the fuck did we eliminate them, again?". You're gonna look back, realize in hindsight they're not nearly as scummy as they looked while alive, and wonder how the fuck they ended up being eliminated.

And if you're smart, you'll realize it's because in a bout of stupidity, y'all ended up jumping on thinking you've 'caught' scum for things that aren't actually scum.

But you'll probably pull another dumb, instead of realizing the above, thinking that clearly, the mislynches were the machinations of deepscum that powerwolfed and paranoia-vote the powertown players that you were yourself among, forgetting that they were in the same mindset you were in at the time.

How's

that

for a prediction?

[mastina]

bruh the main thing is how do you tab in after 2 days to a wagon forming on you and your only post. your ONLY post is to paraphrase some shit your teammate said?? not even a "this is fine" meme?? nothing?

Quite easily as it turns out. Xtoxm was the D2 elimination that game; go look at his posting at the bottom of his iso. Notice something?

His posting there is almost nothing--no recognition of his situation, nothing.

And that's just the example I got from the top of his game history where he was eliminated.

I could find many others.

Suffice to say: Xtoxm reacting that way isn't scum; I actually think it's town.

[mastina]

Mastin where are you in your catchup?

Exact same spot as before: page 14.

I can't simultaneously read the earlier pages AND read the current pages when the current pages are being created so rapidly. Given that I'm forced to choose, the current takes priority over the past.

When people start to slow down on the current posting, I'll go back to the past posting.

[mastina]

Lol you’re literally just pocketing mastina because she’s loud and will defend you

Dann.

There is a flaw in that strategy.

It is saying that ALBERT B. RAMPAGE.

Seriously thinks.

That going out of his way to pocket me, mastina.

Is a worthy investment.

In what world is me being loud and in defense of him enough to seriously dissuade a wagon on him? There's no world where that works; when I am loud but wildly off base, people just ignore me and go on to correctly eliminate the scum that I was loudly wrong on.

The only world in which my voice holds sway is the world in which I'm

not

wrong--the world where I make good, reasonable, rational, points based in sound logic that put actual genuine doubt into the nature of the wagon. That's the one and only world where me being loud has sway. Is if I am actually onto something in my defense being genuinely good.

And while I have gotten more reasonable and rational over the years, a significant portion of the team mafia crowd, ABR included, know me only as the loudmouth that is aggressively and loudly wrong. They hold very little respect for my ability to sway towns, because in their experience I don't.

You have one point which is potentially right--I don't really see why ABR would sheep me, because I would expect him to lack that respect in my capabilities, for him to not think I really have a good read on the state of the game. But even in that one point, ABR with me is the type of player who I seem to recall actually has done this before with me, when he was town, in spite of that general mindset towards me. So even in that potential point, I think it's not right.

I don't think ABR's winning strategy here as scum is to buddy up to me as a replacement and hope that I have enough sway to dissuade a D1 wagon on him through sheer force of loudness--I have not read the game, I have far less ground to stand on, there are players in this game that're just as loud as me but with far more information than me (you, tw come to mind among others), and there's plenty of players who will on policy/principle just ignore my loudness.

Me being loud and in defense of ABR isn't enough to save him.

It's only if I have actual grounds to save him that I can save him--if the reasons I am defending him are on a solid, reasonable, logical basis that has merit to it and resonates with others. And if the reasons I am defending him are solid, reasonable, logical basis with merits that resonate, then that means they're probably not something ABR came up with on the fly specifically when I replaced in. In other words. Not something that he was doing to fool me.

[mastina]

We flip the "deepwolf" d1

Yes we flip the deepwolf D1 who is SO deepwolf that they flip green.

In the world where, sayyyy, we flip ABR D1 and he flips green.
And flip Xtoxm D2 and he flips green.

I like my prediction for what y'all do on D3-5.

Because the reasons for wagoning ABR and Xtoxm are, largely: objectively shit, and will in hindsight when looked back on, be transparently poor to people with them realizing how shitty the reasons actually were.

The closest to a case on ABR was from Dann on "ABR is being lackluster and isn't aggressive" (which I've yet to have a chance to investigate, but I suspect will not be due to ABR being scum because ABR as scum has absolutely no issue being aggressive and coming up with reasoning--seriously, how many people here have played with ABR as scum? For those who have, was he in that scumgame of his in any way remotely lackluster in aggression? Because when I've seen ABR as scum he very much was not lacking in that department).

The closest to a case on Xtoxm is "he's not doing much, especially when under pressure", which a simple meta check on Xtoxm will show...is not alignment indicative, because that's par for the course on Xtoxm.

[mastina]

i think there are enough people who want either xtoxm or abr today, its a matter of preference

If the choice is between town A and town B the town loses regardless.

Vote Count 1.15

Albert B. Rampage

(6): Hopkirk, Dannflor,

Cephrir

, OkaPoka, the worst,

hercule

Xtoxm

(4): DrippingGoofball, Dunnstral, Titus,

innocentvillager

hercule

(2): mastina, Albert B. Rampage

DrippingGoofball

(1): Almost50

AGar

(1): Ythan

Titus

(1):

AGar

mastina

(1):

Winter Flakes

Not Voting

(2): Xtoxm, unwnd

Guess where I think the scum are?

[mastina]

They posted 16 times in one day while being ran up
And then at the end after they had been voted out, they posted one more time
It's not the same thing

He also posted like 10 times in one day while being run up when he was scum last team mafia. So posting while being run up is not a town-indicator for him.

The nature of the content when run up IS.

In last year's team mafia, there was a notable reaction to him being run up.

In Jigsaw's Revenge, he had no reaction to being run up.

This was a town game where he didn't post up a storm while run up. He lurked and was mislynched. With no notable reaction to being run up.

For the record, I've been looking over like 10-20 Xtoxm games (looking for games where he was explicitly eliminated during the day regardless of his alignment, so I had to exclude endgamed and survived and nightkilled results), and in the process I have thought that, while Xtoxm is hard to read, that this is still more likely him as town.

[mastina]

xtoxm definitely was lurky in the team mafia normal no?

Xtoxm is one of the lurkiest players onsite. Games where he doesn't lurk are the exception to the general rule. Activity is not a tell--what he posts IS. And from his content that I've seen, I do lean town.

[mastina]

I refuted your meta by pointing out that he posted 16 times in a day while being ran up, from what you linked. Here he posted once, and it was someone else's thoughts.

And I re-refuted you by showing further games to back up my argument by showing that your argument of "he posts a lot when run up as town, he didn't post a lot here when run up" was wrong.

[mastina]

sorry mastina but you need to catchup because background knowledge is kinda essential to understanding why we are voting abr or xtoxm

Apparently not as the reasons for voting them presented since I have replaced in are summed up as, "they're not doing much, they must be scum" aside from the ABR-stance-on-Xtoxm people jumped on as clearly being TMI.

[mastina]

I feel like this sudden concern about a phantom group of people that are deadset on xtoxm obv scum is made up

tbh i feel similarly to abr so even if it's wrong it might not be made up

My take: the people suspicious of Xtoxm and ABR are largely town but their reasoning sucks ass and they're pushing bad wagons that're on town for what amounts to little more than policy.

These wagons give scum an easy excuse to sheep, or at the very least, not take a hard stance that is difficult to back up, not take stances that they need to justify, to allow them to more or less get away with doing whatever with little consequence, because the biggest names in the town are overly hung up on ABR/Xtoxm which strangles out other voices who'd want to direct attention elsewhere.

I am pretty sure Dann, tw, and now Oka are town, from their pushes here. To a lesser extent, unwnd too.

But I genuinely think they're just fundamentally WRONG in pushing those two slots.

the worst
Dannflor
OkaPoka
Hopkirk

Titus
DrippingGoofball
Albert B. Rampage
Xtoxm
Ythan
unwnd

Dunnstral
Almost50
innocentvillager


Uncrowned

AGar

Cephrir
hercule

This is where I am at. The reads are, "townbloc-locktown, locktown outside of townbloc, lean town but need more to be sure, lean scum, scumread, strong scumread".

[mastina]

what? my reasons for voting xtoxm are because he doubled down on a logical fallacy and im extrapolating that to mean he's inventing reads

You mean 1211? That's it? Instead of...the various other reads he's had, when the logic he used is not actually bad? I don't see it. 642 from Auro mostly but also with Xtoxm giving his own thoughts; 1008 looks good; 1030 also feels hugely organic and natural. That's just from the reads, too; from the more friendly banter and the general stances taken, Xtoxm just feels town here, fluid and natural. I don't see invented reads at all.

and abr vote is because he was playing both sides and sowing paranoia without substance

ABR's 'playing both sides' is inherently not a scumtell here and in this case I'd argue a towntell.

There is absolutely nothing scum in him pushing for the elimination of a slot while believing it will probably flip town and stating as much. That's something he just does. He is light in substance himself, and ironically he could be policy-eliminated for the very same things he's willing to policy-eliminate another slot for, that's fair enough.

But make no mistake that it'd be just that, a policy-elimination.
Don't delude yourself into thinking he's scum for it. He's very much not.

[mastina]

again the xtoxm wagon is purely because xtoxm
1) had a townread on titus for townreading iv for scumreading her
2) but this reasoning was demonstrably false because titus had townread iv before iv scumread her
3) and xtoxm rather than backing up, doubled down on a faulty premise and also included auro backing himself up
so the argument is xtoxm and auro have decided that they want to townread titus (don't know why) and invented a reason as to why.

read this mastina

I'm far from convinced; quite the opposite in fact. According to my dual iso, you made a fundamental fact-checking error. IV votes Titus here, and Titus said IV was town here. Titus said IV was town AFTER IV voted Titus--and a vote on Titus is sufficient to say that IV was suspicious of Titus, no?

So Xtoxm could reasonably deduce that Titus townread IV for scumreading her.

[mastina]

not sure why ABR is being wagoned
Infinity and I both think he's pre townie

When ABR flips town y'all are gonna need to look at posts like this and realize this is scum sitting on the sidelines letting the town eliminate town without actually trying to stop it.

[mastina]

literally read the next like three posts

I read chronologically, but this feels like a sufficient counter:

again the xtoxm wagon is purely because xtoxm
1) had a townread on titus for townreading iv for scumreading her
2) but this reasoning was demonstrably false because titus had townread iv before iv scumread her
3) and xtoxm rather than backing up, doubled down on a faulty premise and also included auro backing himself up
so the argument is xtoxm and auro have decided that they want to townread titus (don't know why) and invented a reason as to why.

read this mastina

I'm far from convinced; quite the opposite in fact. According to my dual iso, you made a fundamental fact-checking error. IV votes Titus here, and Titus said IV was town here. Titus said IV was town AFTER IV voted Titus--and a vote on Titus is sufficient to say that IV was suspicious of Titus, no?

So Xtoxm could reasonably deduce that Titus townread IV for scumreading her.

IV voted Titus before Titus's stated locktown read on IV. And Xtoxm's townread on Titus was after both of those.

So your point of Xtoxm making up reasons due to a chronology error on his part...
...Doesn't have a chronology error on his part, it has a chronology error on YOUR part.

[mastina]

@Mastina
out of interest, how do you propose I try to stop the elim?

By dismantling the reasons for the scumread while also pointing out the reasons for the townread.

[mastina]

again multitasking which is why this took so long

Hopkirk is close to a townread but he is not at the level of unwnd or hercule for me. i get the feeling he's just a good player which makes me paranoid of his scumrange. honestly my eyes glaze over his posting (potentially not ideal) but the vibe I get is that it looks like he's being helpful and engaging everyone in an effort to understand what's going on. if he's establishing himself to push an agenda i have a feeling we'll see it later but im very okay having this slot around for now.

JacksonVirgo - mostly a tonal read. i don't love 526 or 533 but the posts i thought were +town are: 534, 597, 598, 599, 647, 648. it's hard to explain it beyond just being openly frustrated and utterly not giving a shit about his thread perception which i have found in practice (in my anecdotal experience) to be a towntell for him.

A50 - this is like exactly the same as A50 in this one towngame we played and not at all how he played in this scumgame we did (granted he replaced in, which is different). there are moments like 112, 116, 619, 622 that ring eerily similar. "but it's just A50's playstyle!" you might say. okay sure maybe, that's why he's one of my weaker townleans i guess. also 737 is a really weird thing to post as scum but i obliged him since someone on my team thinks he can read him ok.

Xtoxm - unprompted and unpostury/interesting notes from Auro are good, i liked 642 for example. don't see an agenda from this slot, not postury, takes are pretty reasonable. other people townreading them too despite lack of content quantity which feels good. weaker townlean probably

TW - ill likely be revisiting this a lot bc im paranoid. here's the reasoning i gave earlier

rn it's leantown i think with the engagement and with the hinting on Datisi scumreading me so early (inside thing where town!Datisi has tunneled early town!me for two games in a row, i like that Datisi gave the read and the worst mentioned it unprompted). his entrance felt forced but on reread it's not bad. could be some confbiasing going on there so im conflicted, idk, im gonna just like worsty be a slow burn read for me.

and i think with your recent interaction with me im townreading you even more. i think your disengagement from this game is fine in the context of being busy and maybe even +town in a vacuum. also i think it's easy for scum!you to try and pocket me and you've done everything but engage with me and pocket me.

I'm ok adding IV to my townblock

i dont think that's how townblocks work

iv is voting you

Haven't got there yet, but I'm ok with putting him in my never eliminate pile.

literally three posts down

like

not talking to you until you catchup because my sanity is gone

I don't see what you're trying to say; near as I can tell, you're proving your case wrong?

Your case is that Xtoxm said he was townreading Titus for townreading IV while IV was scumreading Titus; you say that runs into a chronology problem, of IV's scumread coming AFTER Titus's townread.

Except, IV's scumread came BEFORE Titus's townread, and therefore Xtoxm's reason doesn't have a chronology problem.

You've said Xtoxm townread Titus because Titus townread IV after IV scumread Titus, and that Xtoxm's townread reasoning was made up because IV's scumread on Titus came after Titus's townread.

Except...IV's scumread on Titus did indeed come before Titus's townread on IV, so Xtoxm townreading Titus for townreading IV's scumread of her...

...Doesn't actually run into a chronology problem...

...And thus, has no reason to be faked.

[mastina]

VOTE: Titus fine with this

Like, IV voted Titus here, in 858.
Titus townread IV in 1079.

Xtoxm said that he townreads Titus for townreading IV for scumreading Titus--which...Titus did, and IV did, exactly the way Xtoxm described.

[mastina]

now since you couldnt be assed to scroll three posts down ill specify the important thing for you

Haven't got there yet,

So? That changes nothing.

Titus quoted a post where she was informed IV was voting her.

She, in that post where she quoted that IV was voting her, said IV was town.

What's so unreasonable about Xtoxm coming to the conclusion that Titus is locktowning IV for voting her?

That's a perfectly reasonable conclusion to reach, that Xtoxm believed Titus locktowned IV for voting her, because IN THE POST WHERE TITUS SAYS SHE HAS IV AS LOCKTOWN, she is explicitly ACKNOWLEDGING THAT IV VOTED HER.

The leap in logic is ridiculously easy to make.
"Titus has been told that IV is voting her. She hasn't read to that point yet, but she is acknowledging that IV has voted her. She stated IV is locktown. Therefore, she thinks IV is town for having voted her."
That's a perfectly logical train of thought, isn't it?

[mastina]

hmm maybe that was too vague

(I, Titus) Haven't got there (the part where IV votes me) yet,

Mate in your effort to try and prove your point you're literally discrediting it.

Titus said she hadn't read to the point where IV voted her--this is explicitly her acknowledging that IV has voted her, she just hasn't checked up to that point in the game yet.

Titus, separately, said that she was locktowning IV, in that same post.

While the two may be unconnected, why is it unreasonable for Xtoxm to assume that they're connected? What is fundamentally wrong with Xtoxm seeing part A, Titus knows that IV is voting her, and seeing part B, Titus is townreading IV, and connecting the two to be "Titus is townreading IV for voting her"?

Titus explicitly said, as you so helpfully point out, "I haven't gotten to the point where IV voted me", which requires her to be aware that IV is voting her.
Titus explicitly said she was townreading IV in that same post.
It is a perfectly valid conclusion to link the two together.

[mastina]

are you being daft on purpose ?

Are you?

Because I've demonstrated pretty clearly how Xtoxm could read 1079 and come to the perfectly reasonable conclusion of "Titus is townreading IV for IV scumreading Titus".

1079 is, just in of itself, enough to have formed that stance.

The full context of the situation indicates the conclusion is ultimately wrong.

But if you're not paying extra-special attention to the full context, if you're not putting 2000% into scrutinizing the context, analyzing its nuances in-depth with special attention there with the intent of making a point? If you're just casually reading?

It is RIDICULOUSLY easy to read Titus's 1079 as townreading IV for scumreading her.

For Xtoxm to be scum making this up, you'd need to demonstrate how it's impossible for Xtoxm to have not carefully and meticulously scrutinized it and seen the correct context. For Xtoxm to be scum making this up, you'd need to demonstrate that Xtoxm read the context correct and then chose to lie about the context.

Which is all sorts of violating occam's razor.

The simplest solution being.
Xtoxm wasn't paying such close attention that he correctly read the context, and that Xtoxm misread it and made a read off of that.

[mastina]

are you being daft on purpose ?

Are you?

Because I've demonstrated pretty clearly how Xtoxm could read 1079 and come to the perfectly reasonable conclusion of "Titus is townreading IV for IV scumreading Titus".

1079 is, just in of itself, enough to have formed that stance.

The full context of the situation indicates the conclusion is ultimately wrong.

But if you're not paying extra-special attention to the full context, if you're not putting 2000% into scrutinizing the context, analyzing its nuances in-depth with special attention there with the intent of making a point? If you're just casually reading?

It is RIDICULOUSLY easy to read Titus's 1079 as townreading IV for scumreading her.

For Xtoxm to be scum making this up, you'd need to demonstrate how it's impossible for Xtoxm to have not carefully and meticulously scrutinized it and seen the correct context. For Xtoxm to be scum making this up, you'd need to demonstrate that Xtoxm read the context correct and then chose to lie about the context.

Which is all sorts of violating occam's razor.

The simplest solution being.
Xtoxm wasn't paying such close attention that he correctly read the context, and that Xtoxm misread it and made a read off of that.

For the record: Xtoxm having generated a read off of an incorrect interpretation of a post, but one which isn't that hard to have made, does further my feelings of him being town, because it means he took the time to come to a conclusion, but wasn't so hellbent on it being perfect that he cared to check to make sure the read wasn't flawed.

[mastina]

someone translate mastina's posts for me i cant look at them

Then the fault is on you because I've demonstrated how it is perfectly reasonable for someone to come to the conclusion that Titus is townreading IV for voting her.

YES, Titus wasn't townreading IV for voting her.

But just because she wasn't townreading IV for voting her doesn't mean it isn't possible for someone to

think

she was townreading IV for voting her.

And I've done a damn good job of showing how someone could come to that perfectly reasonable, even if ultimately incorrect, conclusion when reading Titus's 1079. It is especially likely a conclusion to make if you're not paying super close attention and are only skimming.

Titus acknowledged IV was voting her; Titus stated a townread on IV, but did not give any reason for said townread; it is not unreasonable to conclude the reason for the townread is the vote on her. It's an incorrect conclusion, but not an impossible one, nor even improbable; it is one which I made just from the iso, and if I can make that understandable-but-wrong conclusion, so too could Xtoxm.

[mastina]

are you being daft on purpose ?

Are you?

Because I've demonstrated pretty clearly how Xtoxm could read 1079 and come to the perfectly reasonable conclusion of "Titus is townreading IV for IV scumreading Titus".

1079 is, just in of itself, enough to have formed that stance.

The full context of the situation indicates the conclusion is ultimately wrong.

But if you're not paying extra-special attention to the full context, if you're not putting 2000% into scrutinizing the context, analyzing its nuances in-depth with special attention there with the intent of making a point? If you're just casually reading?

It is RIDICULOUSLY easy to read Titus's 1079 as townreading IV for scumreading her.

For Xtoxm to be scum making this up, you'd need to demonstrate how it's impossible for Xtoxm to have not carefully and meticulously scrutinized it and seen the correct context. For Xtoxm to be scum making this up, you'd need to demonstrate that Xtoxm read the context correct and then chose to lie about the context.

Which is all sorts of violating occam's razor.

The simplest solution being.
Xtoxm wasn't paying such close attention that he correctly read the context, and that Xtoxm misread it and made a read off of that.

For the record: Xtoxm having generated a read off of an incorrect interpretation of a post, but one which isn't that hard to have made, does further my feelings of him being town, because it means he took the time to come to a conclusion, but wasn't so hellbent on it being perfect that he cared to check to make sure the read wasn't flawed.

Also I want this on the next page.

[mastina]

points 3 and 4 mastina, points 3 and 4

That Xtoxm doubled down on it? 1213 links to 1079. That's not doubling down on it, that's him explaining where he got it from.

xtox my guy how did you get that from this
she was calling IV absolutely town (this is a near universal read atp), was called out for using "townblock" language when IV was voting her, then said it was ok he was voting her
all i'm seeing is a really safe townread on IV? oka's callout was kinda unproductive but how is her response towny?

Nowhere in this does the worst's post explain how it cannot be a townread for having voted her.
And then Xtoxm responded,

scum a typically reluctant to hard tr a slot thats going for them
auro also feels titus recent content is towny

I see no issue with this post; it flows from Xtoxm's interpretation and belief.

no but do you see duck's point
the townread was established before the scumread was

yeah
but she stuck to it and strengthened with the new information

In my defense of Xtoxm,

I literally said the exact same thing

.

I literally said exactly what Xtoxm was saying here. Like I said: if I could come to this conclusion, which I did, why couldn't Xtoxm?

i think it would have been really easy to just not make a comment there, or leave it at 'i havent got there yet'

And this is a valid point.

I feel like Xtoxm's defense of Titus isn't problematic.

It is perfectly probable and reasonable to develop a townread on a player for a flawed reason.
When the flaws of this townread are shown, it is perfectly probable, and reasonable, to then evaluate the flaw and then come to the conclusion that even if the initial premise was flawed, the new perspective actually strengthens the read rather than shattering it.

Doubling down on the flawed read's reason, in this case, actually looks like analyzing the read and coming to the conclusion that it stands for a different reason anyway.

Xtoxm's process there isn't fake--it's incredibly fluid and organic and that type of read evolution is PRECISELY the type of read evolution that comes from town.

[mastina]

this is an easy thing to check!

VOTE: xtoxm

I lose interest when people start using words like deepwolf, LHF and LAMIST. Anyways can we flip Xtoxm?

abr, why is xtoxm scum
and for brownie points why is he a better flip than any other flip

As far as I'm concerned he's done little and less to help the town. Spending most of the day not voting is innacptable, and his iso is sparse and underwhelming. Not a slot I'd be sorry to see go.

how am i meant to decide between eliminating xtoxm, eliminating abr, and policying hercule
this game is impossible

It's easy, one is at L-2 and the other two aren't.

In what posts does ABR indicate he thinks the slot is actually going to flip scum? Certainly none of the quoted posts. These posts all scream "ABR is advocating for a policy-lynch" to me, and I don't see the problem with ABR thinking a slot he's advocating the policy lynch of is going to flip town; it is, after all, a policy lynch which is something that usually hits town.

[mastina]

I would want to give her a pass and say she's not caught up, but at this point everyone has told her that and she is willfully ignoring it.

1: Engaging with present is more important than not engaging and reading the past.
2: People have said that I lack the context, but whenever the context is brought up, I've investigated the context to analyze it.
3: Upon investigating the context, I've pointed out the flaws in their reasoning and given my thoughts on it.
4: People continue to say that I lack context, that my position is wrong. I continue to investigate any additional context they show, and continue to point out why I feel their stance is mistaken.

Just because I haven't read everything doesn't mean I am incapable of engaging on things--and I feel I raise valid points with my investigation that are being written off as "lol, lacks context", when...I HAVE investigated the context in them.

[mastina]

(Also, I have a 7:30 obligation so I have to leave right now, be back later.)

[mastina]

Fair warning: I have family night tonight so like yesterday, I may need to dip out due to other obligations. But I'll do what I can now, and I expect Saturday to be free for me.

this one could just be a game where mastina is literally trying to blow this game up and make problems appear

I mean I could, I basically tried that in a previous team mafia year where I was scum.

...It, uh. Didn't work.

it definitely has many, many flaws and im not even voting xtoxm right now but mastina is annoying me and pointing out things that aren't flaws

Pointing out how an interaction you say must be scum can come from town and explaining exactly how a town player can create that interaction is far from flawed.

AGar coming in and saying 'this mastina nonsense' is actually scummy and like my heart wants to believe it
But I'm not sure if the brain agrees..

If this is you saying AGar is scum.

You certainly won't hear me argue otherwise.

how does everyone feel on winter flake btw? i want to kill that slot a lot too

I'd compromise there, but I wouldn't be happy about it.

Technically, Winter Flake is, currently, in my list of four, but I think I'm wrong on a townread and Winter Flake is town. For a D1 solve, Winter Flake is a better elimination than a stronger townread and would give more info, but I wouldn't be happy about that compromise because it's not a scumread so much as a "I don't have a better person" read, the flaw of which is...fairly self-evident.

2344 is a particularly apt post, for instance, and yes overall I do think the mindset there is accurate, although to some extent I disagree with one aspect of it. (I believe AGar is scum, compared to the Xtoxm/ABR wagons being on town.)

WHAT?? Don't tell me you are not familiar with mastina play. If anything this is TOWN!her trying. Scum!her

would

have buried herself in the past and probably never getting to the meantime.

(For the record Almost50 is among the slots that I could be wrong on townreading--for instance, his defense of me here feels too sane. If he spun this into an attack on a slot like AGar it'd have the Almost50 flair I'd expect, but defending me with nothing else to it is...odd. But this is the sort of read that I wanna reevaluate on a future day rather than trying to lock him down right now. I've thought him town enough but I know that I do need to solidify that read or put it into question.)

that might be the most number of times I’ve seen my name and have it not be about me whatsoever

(Innocentvillager is another of those names--people have him as locktown and I do townread him, but there's more doubt on my end than on the end of others, so I need to solidify that.)

[mastina]

This game is like a pack of hyenas trying to jam a lynch through without critical thinking and we are lucky we haven't mislynched.

Pretty much, yeah.

I DO think that scum are sitting on the sidelines by and large--but I don't think the lurkers or active lurkers wagoned since I've replaced in were the scum sitting on the sidelines.

Hopkirk is among the proactive players not sitting on the sidelines, and is town.
Dannflor is among the proactive players not sitting on the sidelines, and is town.
the worst is among the proactive players not sitting on the sidelines, and is town.
OkaPoka is among the proactive players not sitting on the sidelines, and is town.

Titus is less active than ideal, but still powertown.
Xtoxm is a hardcore lurker but I still think he's town.
ABR is mostly active lurking, but I think he's town.
Dunnstral is fairly low activity, but I still think this is Dunn as town.

Uncrowned is a slot that's kinda on the sidelines, but the more I see the less I think scum, and quite the opposite now think town.


innocentvillager is a slot I need to evaluate better and get a better grasp on, including if he counts as sitting on the sidelines.
unwnd is a slot I need to evaluate better and get a better grasp on, including if he counts as sitting on the sidelines. (Tho I believe is town and I think is more active? Need to double-check this.)

DGB is a slot I need to evaluate better and get a better grasp on but does seem to be on the sidelines.
Almost50 is a slot I need to evaluate better and get a better grasp on but does seem to be on the sidelines.

Ythan is a case of a slot that was hyperactive earlier on and yet has barely been active at all later on, so I wouldn't know where to classify him; his earlier posts did look hella town to me, tho I admit seeing him post less often is concerning.


hercule is probably among the most active scum, but in spite of posting more often is still mostly not doing much of anything.
Cephrir is getting away with hardcore lurking and y'all should be ashamed for it given his pop-ins are blatantly scum.
AGar is getting away with hardcore lurking and y'all should be ashamed for it given his pop-ins are blatantly scum.

(This post is not to be confused with a readslist, I'll be giving an updated one on that in a short bit.)

[mastina]

what's the bit you like about the content?

Calling Ythan ABR Dunnstral as town and liking you while soft-defending my slot and the worst, is all things that are good, and I agreed with pretty much all of those reads at that point in time. The reads were good, the reasoning was fine; the thing holding me back was tone.

In more recent content, Winter Flakes was initially sitting on the sidelines, but stepped up and has been more active, more vocal, more aggressive, and also far less fake-sounding. Tone-wise Winter Flakes is fine to me now and content-wise continues to actually look pretty good. I may not perfectly agree with every take, but the takes legit do look like they come from town. (Thus why I don't want to wagon the slot--I'd be willing to as a compromise because this townread isn't in defend-to-the-death territory, but I'd be incredibly unhappy with it and expect it to flip town.)

so if xtoxm is scum and winter flakes is town why hasn't there been any attempt to counterwagon onto WF from anyone?

I would love to agree with this as evidence Xtoxm is town, but I cannot in good faith do so because I am obligated to point out:

Scum in today's meta almost never make counterwagons when scum are run up, ESPECIALLY if the scum are almost or entirely among the less-active players.

If scum have no pull, no influence, over the townbloc, they cannot mount a successful effort at defending their scumbuddy via a counterwagon led by them.

In the current meta, most wagons are towndriven because most players who're active are town, with the scum being among the less-active slots either entirely or at least primarily.

So sadly, this doesn't work as an Xtoxm defense, tho I do agree he's town anyway.

Xtoxm is never escaping the POE this game. ABR is being actively scummy, in the thread, right now. I'm fine if they are the competing wagons, people should just vote who they think is mafia

You are probably scum if this is t v t.

It is, so hercule is indeed scum. <3

Hercule may just be scum with Agar and Ythan or Agar might be his pocket. Mastina's scumreads have all started to attack and scumread her.

<3 Titus

(Gotta eat now, so be back circa 20 minutes or so if I don't have another obligation come up.)

[mastina]

mastina's posts were objectively nonsense, I can't see why that would be a controversial opinion.

Because they're far from.

IV, mastina, Okapoka, A50
Dannfloor, unwnd
Hopkirk, ABR
Xotxm, Ythan, Dunn
Null - DGB
The worst, Winter Flakes

Hercule, cephrir
Agar

These're pretty good reads. <3

I actually think I town read Uncrowned now

So do I.

I want to talk to xtoxm but alas

alas

Spoiler:

intent to hammer

I want to talk to xtoxm but alas

do you really tho

*throws hands up in the air*
Mislynch be damned, I'm beginning to become convinced that defending Xtoxm is just not worth it. (Xtoxm is town, but with this being his level of contribution, I just...have far less willpower to fight a wagon on him. I will never join a wagon on him; make no mistake, he is indeed town. But I just...can't will myself to defend him when this is what he'll give.)

That being said, I will continue to push the players I think are scum and sort among the players I need to lock down to find the fourth.

tw, Dann & Titus appear on 3 of the 6 wagons, and -again- I am not jumping to conclusions there yet.

For the record IF we have a deepwolf who is part of the town core it is 100% the worst as he's literally the only player here who I'd buy as possible as scum deepwolfing this game.

But that's a big fucking huge gigantic 'IF', which is to say: I'm not gonna call there being a deepwolf until we have actually good evidence proving that there would be one. Which is the realm of like...day four, day fiveish. Until that D4-D6 range, I refuse to paranoia-mislynch a powertown player who is obviously town out of paranoia of them possibly being scum. Balance of probability is that there's no deepscum and all the powertown are indeed powertown. Which is to say that I would never support a tw elimination and he is still in my locktown category.

IF there's a scum in the locktowns, it'd be him, sure...but I don't think there IS a scum in the locktowns; I think they're all town. (Readslist showing said locktowns in a bit.)

[mastina]

seeing mastina referred to by her account name from 1000 years ago is so jarring

To be fair. ABR was legit around for my first non-newbie game onsite. (And for that matter, was one of the two ICs in one of my first newbies onsite. While he didn't have much of an influence on me at the time, later on, ABR is up there with Nacho in how large an influence he is on my scumhunting style.) It's a bit more surprising from DGB tho because most of my games with DGB are from the mastin2 era and it was there to see my coming out and even was the one to give me my mastin2 avatar.

i used to read mastin2 articles as a young okapoka

I was raised on her articles too

"Do as I say, not as I do" remains a golden rule of those articles.
I would be a much, much better player if I followed my own advice. A lot of my shortcomings are from a failure to adhere to my own teachings.
Most of my articles remain relevant in spite of being written years ago and have not become outdated; they give legitimately genuinely good advice that if followed through to the maximum level, would indeed make you a better scumhunter. I'm just an utter idiotic moron who can't follow my own teachings.

But I digress.

Mastin come back.

Sorry, I do promise that I'll be around more most days. <3

titus can i get some words on why you're scumreading me?
VOTE: winter flakes

Your wagon positioning and a feeling you're just sheeping whatever comes along rather than putting your own thoughts in the game.

^Good post.

[mastina]

plus we end day early and we give mastina 2 days of interrupted catching up

I don't catch up during the night, both because I can be nightkilled and more importantly because fuck not being able to properly quote posts. I realize that you can quote them by using the PM function but the formatting is vastly inferior and I can't be assed to go through that effort.

[mastina]

i still very much feel your Ceph innately uninformed read and that's after he ducked my epic Dann/Ceph s/s read in AvP. but like other than tone idk what to read him off here so, like, sure. I think being paranoid of him is super valid.

(posts like this are why the worst, IF there's deepscum, would be the deepscum.
But I'd like to reiterate: no, I don't think there is deepscum. I feel very bad even positing tw as scum at all because I'm deeply terrified that people will construe this sort of post on a future day as evidence for tw being scum and paranoia-eliminate him when there's actually no deepscum in the locktown.)

[mastina]

why the FUCK are people townreading him

Because he's pretty transparently town in the content he has posted.

But I've given up on defending him, because I just don't feel it's worth it anymore. He's town, eliminating him is explicitly a mislynch, and is effectively basically a policy-lynch. If you want to call it anything other than that (unless you're OkaPoka or scum), you are, honestly, deluding yourself because after he flips town you'll look back at his posts and the reasons for suspecting him and realize they're basically policy, outside of maybe OkaPoka's flawed and ultimately wrong case.

He's not worth defending anymore, but he's not scum. And come D2 if we do eliminate him the only thing that'll change is that we'll have nightkills, people will have his obvious townflip, and if we're really lucky, good PR info. (I've got setup spec that makes me doubt we're gonna get good PR info but for obvious reasons I've not been airing this publicly.)

Cephrir: lurking (158 posts, active presence at every stage of the game)

Active lurking is still lurking and your posts are very much exactly that. At least all the ones I've read, from the posts after I replaced in and the first 14 pages. Granted, there's a 60-page area I've not read yet so if you did content posts in that timeframe which I am genuinely unaware of, I apologize, but I am calling it as I've seen it; all of your posts have been active lurking that I've seen so far.

[mastina]

imagine a world where we quick elimmed agar

For the record while that's probably a D1 elimination on scum, a quick-elimination on scum would probably lead to town overconfidence on D2 onward and cause the town to chain-mislynch like four, five people before we had a shot at a second scum.

Buuuuut, admittedly, I'd rather a quick-elimination on scum leading to an overconfident town, than no elimination on scum leading to a directionless town.

[mastina]

can we get a vibe check

Consider this to be that:
VOTE: AGar.

[mastina]

Did I mistype your name? #unintentional

Kind-of, I think; I seem to recall you typed 'Mastin', maybe 'mastin', but there was a lack of the 'a', possibly with a capital M to boot. It's not much of an issue for most scummers tho since the number of scummers who maliciously use 'Mastin' rather than 'mastina' can be counted on one finger. (Said scummer's not playing right now, tho they do tend to come back every few years or so.)

Today's posts are a vast improvement <3

There's no change tho--I'm still presenting the exact same reads I was yesterday including defending the same people and scumreading the same people. I've had one read change overnight (Winter Flakes), and that's it. It's the same reads and the same presentation and the exact same lack of 60 posts' worth of info.

Red: hercule is scum. Rest are locktown.
Orange: Cephrir is scum. Tho I townread the rest, DGB is in the 'possible scum' pile.
Purple: I'm town; Titus is town; tho I townread the rest, they're in the 'possible scum' pile.
Olive: AGar is scum; Xtoxm is town.

So I largely agree; 1 scum in red, 1 scum in orange; between purple and orange there's

probably

another scum, but I'd say Olive does also have one scum in it.

[mastina]

the setup spec is isis reviewed the game so town won't have a deus ex machine plot device power role that saves us from terrible misplays

Kind-of, actually, yes, but let's save the details for that until like...massclaim or so.

Thanks for baiting the n1 kill MASTINA

I mean.

As a very prominent NRG member who received a town role PM, I call dibs on being the N1 nightkill due to my ability to setup spec accurately for Normals being a threat the longer the game goes on.

This was literally my first post in the thread.

[mastina]

OkaPoka
Titus
Dannflor
Hopkirk
the worst

Albert B. Rampage
Xtoxm

Uncrowned
DrippingGoofball
Ythan
unwnd
Dunnstral
Almost50
innocentvillager



AGar

Cephrir
hercule

Locktown, town that I have minimal-no doubts on, townread-but-there's-1-or-2-scum-in-here-so-need-further-sorting, scumread, strong scumread.

[mastina]

cant believe we are going to let mastina get away with doing no work

It happens surprisingly often yaknow. I just speak my mind, say what my suspicions are, find the people who empathize with me, and talk to them, convincing them to follow me.

Dunnstral is fairly low activity, but I still think this is Dunn as town.

I'm not though (low activity)

You're low activity in the parts of the game that I've read: your early presence in the first 14 pages wasn't fairly high and your presence since I've replaced in has been relatively low, thus the statement, because I legit thought based off of your very early and current posting that you had like 60 posts; having double that, yeah you're town here.

[mastina]

OkaPoka
Titus
Dannflor
Hopkirk
the worst

Dunnstral
Albert B. Rampage
Xtoxm

Uncrowned
DrippingGoofball
Ythan
unwnd
Almost50
innocentvillager



AGar

Cephrir
hercule

Slight update here; yes I will be getting into the mess of townreads-that-must-contain-scum either tonight or tomorrow, simultaneous to my read. (May or may not do it tonight. Not at this moment, but I do feel like doing it so there's a high chance it gets done.)

[mastina]

Agar feels tonally off.

Agreed. While AGar's content also looks like scum, the tone is the real selling point for me.

[mastina]

I REALLY like this post.

I read that post in its entirety.

That I had nothing to say about it should tell you that I didn't.

Ditto for 2836. Which gets the same treatment: there was nothing to like in that post.

{okapoka, ducky, danny, cephrir, hercule}
{dunny, unwnd, hopkirk, IV}
{xtoxm, abr, winter flakes, a50, agar, mastina}
{ythan, titus, dgb}

this is how im grouping the game ~ and I think scum have divided themselves into these groups because if I were scum this is how I would have positioned the game out. but i will say if any grouping has two scums, its in the opposition (but im biased).

distribution in my head probably looks like 1 1 1 1 or 1 0 2 1 or 1 1 2 0 or 0 1 2 1

Oka, the very fact that scum are distributed among the groups mean that you should have a total dissolution of the groups, and rebuild the groups so that they're entirely grouped by alignment.

If the bloc has scum in it (considering your bloc has both Cephrir and hecule I guarantee it does), then you need to eject the scum from it: remove them from the group, discard their input, and fundamentally reevaluate.
If the allies have scum in it (eh, possible, but my gutcheck says all-town in there), then you need to eject the scum from it: remove them from the group, discard their input, and fundamentally reevaluate.
If the opposition has town in it (and I would say that all but one, mayyyyyyybe in a stretch 2, of the names in there are town), then you need to eject the town from it: remove them from the group, accept their input, and fundamentally reevaluate, taking the input of the town into account.

There's a difference from a D1 solve that you know is incomplete and flawed due to it being D1, and a fundamental acceptance of a flawed paradigm which even you the maker of it realize and know to be fundamentally wrong and serving to let scum blend in.

The former allows the town to have a rudimentary solve that, while imperfect, is more accurate than not.
The acceptance of the latter allows the scum to blend in because they're equally divided and have infiltrated each group, giving them a disproportionate amount of sway, meaning that the scum are never truly threatened as long as this paradigm is accepted as acceptable.

[mastina]

ythan - he had one post that pinged me 728

"You are not authorized to read this topic"
This was probably approved by the rest of his team before-hand.

True, tho that doesn't mean Xtoxm is scum.

It does however reaffirm my lack of desire to defend Xtoxm anymore tho.

[mastina]

OkaPoka
Titus
Dannflor
Hopkirk
Dunnstral
the worst

Albert B. Rampage
Xtoxm

innocentvillager
unwnd

Uncrowned
DrippingGoofball
Ythan
Almost50



AGar

Cephrir
hercule

Townbloc, townreads outside the townbloc I've no doubts on, gut-check as town, to-sort-townreads-which-must-contain-1/2-scum, scumread, strong scumreads.

[mastina]

The thing is, I'm accepting the reality of scum infiltrating my 'group' because while I think it's likely, I'm not entirely sure who.

So take the feedback from those outside of your group, the feedback which comes from players who must contain some town, because they very much would be all too happy to tell you.

Which is why I said: you need to yeet the scum from the group and discard their input, AND, remove the town from the opposition and

take

their input.

[mastina]

especially having his teammates input with developed thoughts so early in the game speaks good things towards his alignment

(Yes I am reading; yes I'm this far back)
Btw speaking of teammates, due to me not using discord much I really can't decipher the discord talk where my team is doing most of its talking, but in our team PT, Johnny offered to do isos for me if I needed his help; I basically turned him down.
(I said that if he wanted to do so, to feel free to, but his offer was given with, if I need help, and I told him that I don't need his help, essentially, so it's only something he'd do if he wants to.)

So, presumably am flying solo, but hey, never know; he could follow through. I'll let you know if he does.

[mastina]

but if we want some plot twists, say it now or hold your peace forever

Frankly, literally the only thing which'd count as a plot twist from you is you townreading Xtoxm. Literally any other read from you isn't a plot twist.

[mastina]

(Also on the note of teams. I didn't bother to look up who the teams really are. I figured that it wouldn't be necessary unless a player who has a teammate reading the game thread has me as a scumread, which would be a potential red flag depending on who the teammate was, but I've not done the research there. I probably should tho. But reading the pages is probably more important.)

[mastina]

ok Datisi scumreads me like every game at this point lmaoooo

lame excuse

town: hercule, Dannflor, AGar
conflicted: the worst/Daddisi hydra
scum: VOTE: unwnd

Why is unwnd scum?

nvm i don't really scumread unwnd yet
but i will be watching u closely sir

i guess i want to understand what happened here, IV? this is just a very weird sequence of events to me

I do think the worst has been awkward and is deserving of votes, would vote for him and IV at this point. Not necessarily both together

VOTE: Dunnstral

choosing this moment right after being prodded by dunn to go after him didn't really resonate w me; also feels a bit like a chainsaw

I do think the worst has been awkward and is deserving of votes, would vote for him and IV at this point. Not necessarily both together

VOTE: Dunnstral

Explain

hmm maybe part of it was me thinking the "not necessarily both together" was a bit awkward LOL

i get having to go back and figure out what you were thinking at a given moment but it was like 2 posts ago? why are we "hmm maybe if we interpret the entrails this way" ing about an opinion that you literally just posted

It feels like you're making this up as you go along and tacking on whatever reason to scumread me

i am, is that scummy?

y... yes?

Dunnstral mega town off of this interaction.

UNVOTE: Dunnstralim willing to do this but can you explain how you got "megatown"?

after that whole exchange, someone else's opinion is the thing that gets you to unvote? what

ythan town

From what I understand, IV likes being town. His best option if he's not town is to lead with nonsense and then assume someone town reads him by his gestures; this can include fluffy nonsense. The way he convinced himself that you were scummy did not sit right for me.

this might actually be a real thought because this is exactly what I tried to do to (while pocketing the worst) in Mini 2160! but i can't do that anymore, it only works once. im curious as to how you know me so well... my towngames you've seen me in were pretty different
pedit: what are you confused/thinking about?

what on earth does the likelihood of this thought being real have to do with you happening to have done that in some other game
are you some sort of space alien i don't get these processes

Cephrir's push on IV here feels rather forced and opportunistic--at the time, innocentvillager was the leading wagon, and Cephrir's analysis was forcing a scumread onto the slot. It feels like Cephrir is inventing reasons to force a read onto a slot that was already under heavy pressure at the time.

[mastina]

has there ever been a 'towncore' without a scum in it

Quite often in fact, especially on days later than D1. A towncore without scum is quite easy to make if the town can identify other town as town, rather than identifying people who have similar takes as them as being town. (The latter is what lets deepscum infiltrate the town's core.)

@mastina who on my team should i trust the most for a second opinion

Honestly, depends. If Nancy has actually been actively following along this game and reading all of the pages rather than skimming/isoing, then her takes on some players are probably pretty good (Nancy should be able to tell this is my towngame for instance, and if she can't that alone is proof she's not reading in detail). But only IF she's actively been following along this game and reading all of the pages rather than skimming/isoing. If she's been skimming/isoing, less so.

If DKKoba treated this game like they were a replacement replacing in, then they could possibly be better, but given that DKKoba's style tends to be fairly reliant on getting reactions to their posts, you'd have needed to basically been their avatar, pushing their thoughts in and allowing them to get reactions to those thoughts. That dynamic absent, probably not DKKoba.

In general, I'd probably say Pooky's the best one to trust just generically so (Nancy could situationally be better, DKKoba also could situationally be better), so if neither of the situations I mentioned are true, then yeah, I'd trust Pooky the most, since Pooky as a player even when not heavily invested/involved still has fairly good takes/reads.

[mastina]

if you were someone else i'd ask you what about this post makes it seem invented, but since you're mastina you will tell me it just feels like scum

It's invented because of you calling the excuse lame rather than explaining why the excuse is scummy; you call the sequence of events weird rather than scummy; saying the vote on Dunn doesn't resonate rather than calling the vote OMGUS is out of place; the entire time, you're avoiding calling IV scum and yet are shading IV. Given the wagon on IV at the time and the lack of commitment, that screams scum forcing an opportunistic read rather than a genuine read.

[mastina]

mastina if i were scum and you were not i'd be yeeting you for things i know are playstyle and i'd probably be getting away with it
just saying

Wouldn't work in team mafia especially given that it's me.

I am notoriously hard to mislynch even without three teammates able to tell people that a case is rats-ass backwards. With said teammates, it's not happening.

There's damn good reason I'm confident that before endgame, I'll be a nightkill.

Simply put, I don't think the scum can afford not to.

I joked that it'd be the N1 nightkill (it won't be, nobody N1 nightkills me), but more realistic is circa N3/N4ish, maybe N5 if N3/N4 need to be outed TPRs. It's almost certainly going to happen because I'm too much of a threat, your hatred of me be damned.

[mastina]

dkkoba has also asked me to do other things wrt to hercule but dkkoba isn't playing this game

(This is what I meant RE: Dkkoba, Oka. If you had done what DKKoba asked you to do the entire game, I'd probably trust DKKoba's reads more, but having not done so, by default I'd trust Pooky's the most, possibly situationally Nancy.)

[mastina]

I'm perfectly content to do that and will do so momentarily. I still call your mischaracterization insensible.

alrighty

The implication being that illogical nonsense also tends scumward

Possible hot take: hercule-Ythan as scum-scum distancing.

[mastina]

am i not allowed to give gut reads and then come up with a reason afterwards to potentially explain why i might've had that read? this is to everyone who has been like "omg, you didn't explain your read progression from A->B->C, i can't follow, scum!"

Can I just say that reading this post is strangely ironic given what Oka's case on Xtoxm was.

[mastina]

stupid agar is making my team fight again

Side with the teammate that wants you to bus him.

[mastina]

okay, who are the scum voting you then?

VOTE: IV

(I continue to think IV and unwnd are town in reading. DGB and Ythan continue to not be as town and hercule continues to be scum. So not much is changing in my reads.)

[mastina]

VOTE: AGar
i don't know if i'd have been bothered by this if unwnd didn't point it out but new york's hottest scumpost is 506. this post has everything:
-complaining about post count
-pointless filler that also randomly drops the only thing he's cared about thus far
-overreaction to titus
-useless nonanalysis on unwnd that turns into a suspicion for some reason
-a MYSTERY VOTE
ceph, i hate to ask, but what's a mystery vote
well seth, that's when you vote ABR without having ever mentioned him before anywhere in your iso for no apparent reason.

Yes I know Ceph will complain about the "lol Ceph bussing" from me, but I feel obligated to point out how, yes, this does in fact look like scum bussing for one simple reason:
The contrast between Ceph's forced push on IV where he was opportunistic in hopping on with poor reasoning that was more shade than actual presenting of a scumread, compared to Ceph's early hop-on onto AGar with what amounts to a rock-solid case that looks like TMI in the sense of Cephrir knows AGar is scum and thus will be more inclined to think 506 is more scum than it'd normally be, that Ceph would think that it's a case of AGar being transparently scum so he hops on while the getting is good.

Basically, the reason I actually DO think that this is scum bussing is:
Cephrir's push on IV where he hopped onto the existing bandwagon was something forced and was shading IV rather than presenting IV as scum.
Cephrir's push on AGar is completely different to his push on IV--he's hopping onto a brand new wagon with conviction that AGar is absolutely a scumfuck from 506.

If AGar is actually scum, which I think he is, and if Cephrir is scum, which I think he is, Cephrir as scum would know AGar was scum. Cephrir as scum knowing AGar is scum would be more inclined to subconsciously assume that AGar's posting looks much worse. (This is a common thing for scum, I've written articles on it, can quote if necessary if you want me to explain this concept in more detail.)

The contrast between Cephrir's push on IV and Cephrir's push on AGar feels like the simplest explanation is that Cephrir is scum and the difference between the two pushes is a difference in the alignment of the player being pushed. Where Cephrir was subconsciously less inclined to create a strong case on IV due to IV being town, but more inclined to make a strong case on AGar due to AGar being scum.

[mastina]

Yes I know Ceph will complain about the "lol Ceph bussing" from me, but I feel obligated to point out how, yes, this does in fact look like scum bussing for one simple reason:
The contrast between Ceph's forced push on IV where he was opportunistic in hopping on with poor reasoning that was more shade than actual presenting of a scumread, compared to Ceph's early hop-on onto AGar with what amounts to a rock-solid case that looks like TMI in the sense of Cephrir knows AGar is scum and thus will be more inclined to think 506 is more scum than it'd normally be, that Ceph would think that it's a case of AGar being transparently scum so he hops on while the getting is good.

Basically, the reason I actually DO think that this is scum bussing is:
Cephrir's push on IV where he hopped onto the existing bandwagon was something forced and was shading IV rather than presenting IV as scum.
Cephrir's push on AGar is completely different to his push on IV--he's hopping onto a brand new wagon with conviction that AGar is absolutely a scumfuck from 506.

If AGar is actually scum, which I think he is, and if Cephrir is scum, which I think he is, Cephrir as scum would know AGar was scum. Cephrir as scum knowing AGar is scum would be more inclined to subconsciously assume that AGar's posting looks much worse. (This is a common thing for scum, I've written articles on it, can quote if necessary if you want me to explain this concept in more detail.)

The contrast between Cephrir's push on IV and Cephrir's push on AGar feels like the simplest explanation is that Cephrir is scum and the difference between the two pushes is a difference in the alignment of the player being pushed. Where Cephrir was subconsciously less inclined to create a strong case on IV due to IV being town, but more inclined to make a strong case on AGar due to AGar being scum.

To explain this more eloquently.

Compare and contrast.
This is Cephrir's push on IV in full up to that point:

Spoiler: Cephrir's push on IV

ok Datisi scumreads me like every game at this point lmaoooo

lame excuse

town: hercule, Dannflor, AGar
conflicted: the worst/Daddisi hydra
scum: VOTE: unwnd

Why is unwnd scum?

nvm i don't really scumread unwnd yet
but i will be watching u closely sir

i guess i want to understand what happened here, IV? this is just a very weird sequence of events to me

I do think the worst has been awkward and is deserving of votes, would vote for him and IV at this point. Not necessarily both together

VOTE: Dunnstral

choosing this moment right after being prodded by dunn to go after him didn't really resonate w me; also feels a bit like a chainsaw

I do think the worst has been awkward and is deserving of votes, would vote for him and IV at this point. Not necessarily both together

VOTE: Dunnstral

Explain

hmm maybe part of it was me thinking the "not necessarily both together" was a bit awkward LOL

i get having to go back and figure out what you were thinking at a given moment but it was like 2 posts ago? why are we "hmm maybe if we interpret the entrails this way" ing about an opinion that you literally just posted

It feels like you're making this up as you go along and tacking on whatever reason to scumread me

i am, is that scummy?

y... yes?

Dunnstral mega town off of this interaction.

UNVOTE: Dunnstral
im willing to do this but can you explain how you got "megatown"?

after that whole exchange, someone else's opinion is the thing that gets you to unvote? what

ythan town

From what I understand, IV likes being town. His best option if he's not town is to lead with nonsense and then assume someone town reads him by his gestures; this can include fluffy nonsense. The way he convinced himself that you were scummy did not sit right for me.

this might actually be a real thought because this is exactly what I tried to do to (while pocketing the worst) in Mini 2160! but i can't do that anymore, it only works once. im curious as to how you know me so well... my towngames you've seen me in were pretty different
pedit: what are you confused/thinking about?

what on earth does the likelihood of this thought being real have to do with you happening to have done that in some other game
are you some sort of space alien i don't get these processes

IV
You still have nervous energy
The best way I would further describe what seems to be wrong with you is that you believe solving to be a catch-all towntell, but it's like
Page 10? What necessity is there to solve on page 10. Changing your mind or seeming like 'oh man, I'm just so worried about everything!' does not make you town
If you are town, stop forcing yourself to do things thanks

bro what are you even talking about lol

This feels like a very awkward response to what I read as a very genuine towny reach out. Personally, that's not how I would react to something like unwnd's post and innocent villager's response here seems devoid of actually trying to understand unwnd or really dig deeper into the reasons people are sorting IV as scummy
I suppose there is something to be said for not taking the easy olive branch, but on the whole it feels more dismissive than anything else, which doesn't really feel like a town approach to the game in general but certainly not this sort of attempted engagement

why are you analyzing this reaction in isolation without at all commenting on the followup conversation we had? what did you think of that?
i genuinely think what unwnd said in that particular post was confusing and i was saying, albeit in a bit of a snippy way, that his accusation was not making sense

that isn't what you said at all? you specifically were questioned about this and said you genuinely didn't understand him, and that's different from the accusation not making sense
(i'm also very lost as to how that completely plain english post apparently was hard to understand)

VOTE: IV

There is a bunch of questioning. A bunch of weak stuff, a push that I personally feel is shade and which I personally feel is forced, but even if you wanna go into more objective metrics: the lack of strength is self-evident in here. Nowhere in this push is Cephrir showing an ounce of confidence in IV being scum. That much is objectively true. His push on IV lacks conviction and lacks solid reasoning and is self-evidently weak. Over multiple IV posts, Cephrir's push against IV amounts to not much.

Contrast:

VOTE: AGar
i don't know if i'd have been bothered by this if unwnd didn't point it out but new york's hottest scumpost is 506. this post has everything:
-complaining about post count
-pointless filler that also randomly drops the only thing he's cared about thus far
-overreaction to titus
-useless nonanalysis on unwnd that turns into a suspicion for some reason
-a MYSTERY VOTE
ceph, i hate to ask, but what's a mystery vote
well seth, that's when you vote ABR without having ever mentioned him before anywhere in your iso for no apparent reason.

This post has hard reasonings, absolute conviction behind it, is solid, grounded in reality, gives concrete reasons, and has a solid basis. He shows absolute confidence. There's no questioning, there's no hesitance, there's an immediate all-in. Off of one AGar post, Cephrir immediately has a strong push where he gives no leniency to AGar, when he did to IV.

Why such a strong contrast between the IV push and the AGar push? They're less than five pages apart, in the same early section of the game.

The simplest solution is a contrast in Cephrir's perspective on the two slots, where he had reason to be hesitant in pushing IV as scum but he had no reason to hesitate in believing AGar to be condemned as scum.

Ergo, Cephrir is scum who bussed AGar immediately when AGar had a single bad post, and IV is town.

[mastina]

@mastina dkkoba has become mathblade for what its worth, he's a little busy in his own games but I'll talk to him when I get the chance

Right, in that case, MathBlade may or may not be the most trustworthy, it'll become obvious when he gives his stances. MathBlade is very much a feast or famine player; he's either really right or really wrong, usually. If he's really right, I'd trust him over Pooky; if he's really wrong, I'd trust Pooky over him.

When MathBlade gives reads here, will be able to better gauge which he is. (Here's to hoping it's the 'really right' tho.)

Hot take DGB might be scum.

Quite possible.

VOTE: Cephrir choo

Much as I'm tempted to join: my entire case on Ceph here falls apart if AGar doesn't flip scum. It'd be smarter to check AGar first, no? If AGar flips scum, my theory may have merit, but an AGar townflip invalidates my case on Ceph. (Well, unless IV is scum in which case I got it backwards, but balance of probability, AGar town = my case on Ceph is wrong.)

[mastina]

I liked something AGar posted

(Yes I know, bad mastina, paranoia is bad, don't do this on D1, but just for bragging rights. If the interaction on page 22 between tw Ceph and AGar is 100% scum I feel like I get big fucking huge bragging rights. But, I do wanna reiterate: the worst is still probably town. The only way I see tw as possible scum is pretty much if all of my other scumreads are right. Any of AGar/Cephrir/hercule flipping town would make me think tw was town.)

[mastina]

oh hey AGar townposted again

548 legit looks like scum theater--it doesn't look like AGar genuinely believes Cephrir is scum or is actually trying to push him. It doesn't even look like AGar is scum making an attempt to OMGUS his attacker and to get a fight started where he cases them to try and reverse the wagon.

His post was defensive without explaining why Cephrir was scum, so it looks like he's trying to distance with a scumbuddy, rather than actually fight with a town player or being town who thinks they caught scum.

[mastina]

(561 is fine from Ceph btw. It's nai, in that it could be town or scum making it, but that's an improvement over Ceph's posts looking like scum; it's posts like that which make me favor voting AGar over Cephrir.)

[mastina]

ABR, do you get the feeling scum Agar just wants us to turn on each other?

(Guess what we ended up doing? Yyyyup.)

[mastina]

I don't agree that ceph is scum-claiming for thinking agar is scum

I do, but in the sense of "dude I wouldn't be run up if you hadn't made this confident push on me, stop bussing me".

[mastina]

let’s kill xtoxm please

Dann this line is very old from you.

On principle I fundamentally refuse to argue against it because Xtoxm is not worth saving, but eliminating him on D1 is explicitly policy; he will never flip scum here. Flipping him is explicitly laziness.

If you wanna flip him for being useless, sure, go ahead. I agree with you; he's not worth defending at this point and not worth saving.
If you wanna flip him for being scum: he ain't, so go look elsewhere.

[mastina]

OkaPoka
Titus
Dannflor
Hopkirk
Dunnstral
the worst

Albert B. Rampage
Xtoxm
innocentvillager
unwnd
Uncrowned

Almost50
DrippingGoofball
Ythan



AGar
Cephrir
hercule

The more and more I read, the more and more this feels right.
Of townblock, locktown, poe-contains-1/2-scum, and just scum.

[mastina]

nah i don't believe xtoxm asked team to proofread reads in the team PT when they supposedly don't care about this game

Doesn't need to be asking team to proofread.

You can make drafts for posts in a PT with no need for the team to preview;
You can craft a post using a PT without posting it in the PT and after crafting it in the PT post it to the game thread.

The PT slip is grasping at straws.

[mastina]

It’s not laziness mastina
It’s actually the right thing to do today

And when he flips town will it still have been the right thing to do?

To have policy-lynched on D1 just because he's a popular scumread for crap reasons?

It's not a good elimination; it IS a lazy one. The reasons are lazy; the wagon is lazy; it is, explicitly. Laziness.

I'm not going to fight the wagon.

But don't pretend it's not lazy; it is.
Xtoxm doesn't deserve to be defended; he's not worth it and nobody would shed a tear at his townflip.

But if you think he's gonna flip scum you're being delusional. He's town. He's just town that frankly deserves to die.

[mastina]

imo this doesn't make sense because why would they draft the post in their team PT without posting it in the team PT (sorry idk Xtoxm pronouns they're not in the sig im gonna with "they" until otherwise specified)

Convenience, if there's material to reference from the team PT--which as Xtoxm was referencing teammates, there very explicitly was. I've done this before. When I have a post to make inthread, drafting it in the PT without posting it to there because there's material from the PT to use in the thread.

imo this one is not impossible but still weird for the same reason. why would you draft a post in the team PT, post it, then immediately post it in the game thread if not to ask for the opinion of your team members?

To proofread it yourself--no need for a teammate to proofread it if you yourself have a use for a proofread.

I do this all the time, because I have an adhd-ridden brain that also works on an autistic wavelength, so having the ability to visualize what I've said in thread helps.

if i am town and don't care about a game, why would I effort and double write posts in a PT at all?

Xtoxm doesn't not-care per se. This is standard fare for Xtoxm; he almost never "cares", so to speak. Xtoxm might be so worthless he's not worth saving, but that doesn't mean he's not going to put in literally zero effort. He's putting as close to zero effort in as is possible without being zero effort, but it's not literally zero effort. And in a state where it's not literally zero effort...crafting a post in the PT is something that's likely to happen.

do you have any other hypotheses for why town!Xtoxm does this then?

Sure: playstyle combined with this being Team Mafia.

I guarantee you almost none of us are on this wagon thinking they're rand +town (excluding scum tmi)

Yes well you're being dummy dum dums in doing so because he's certainly not +scum here. He's null-at-worst; he's town by small things here and there that I've explained, combined with him not matching anyone as being his scumbuddies (seriously, who's his scumbuddies? Do you have a good answer? I certainly don't), combined with other slots being far more likely scum.

There's damn good reasons for him being town and the 'reasons' for him to be scum are lazy.

[mastina]

okay i havent read the entire wall yet agar but the reason why i wanted just another day is mathblade replaced into our team which means another pair of eyes to look you know?

Actually come to think of it.
I seem to recall.
Doesn't MathBlade have kinda...a lot of experience playing with Xtoxm?
I could be wrong about that, you should definitely ask him about that, but for some reason it randomly popped into my head as some sort of fact; for some reason, I seem to have in my mind that MB has extensively played with Xtoxm and put effort into reading him before.

If I'm not mistaken (I very, very easily could be, but if I'm right), I'd love to hear his thoughts there.

[mastina]

As if a lurksack is going to go through all this trouble.

He can and would.

Xtoxm is a lurksack but he doesn't do literally zero effort.
Just

close

to zero effort.

Drafting a post in a team PT is exactly the sort of post that would be close to zero effort for him to do.

[mastina]

There is not a reason to town read xtoxm.

There is: his read progression actually looks fluid in a town manner.

Beyond that: there's an overwhelming gut feeling. It's not based on the wagon on him, it's not based on the push on him, it's not a gut feeling of "this is wrong" in regards to wagoning him. The gut feeling is just that he's town. Strongly so. Beyond the, admittedly sparse (but literally everything is sparse given how much he's given), reasons to townread him, that gut is enough on its own.

When I say I have zero doubts he is town, I mean it--no confbias, no tunnel vision involved, no hatred of the wagon with a primal urge to push against it. I've zero doubts he's town, just off of strong gut combined with evidence which given how sparse his content is, is as strong as can possibly be.

I don't think it's in good faith to argue "xtoxm just wouldn't disappear here as scum"

Fair enough, but I wasn't arguing that. Xtoxm's disappearance isn't why I am townreading him. In fact I agree with you that it's NAI; I was mostly arguing his disappearance wasn't scum-indicative. Something you apparently are onboard with.

He then makes #2560, which does show xtoxm has at least caught up at this point, but is also a completely unreasonable response given he's said he's barely reading and then shortly after says that he "stopped caring and made that clear." Given that xtoxm was largely absent except for one or two uncaring posts, it's just a really weird 'dunk' on me to make when I've tried to reach out to him multiple times and he's apparently read enough to at least know he was about to be hammered. Personally, I feel like this post doesn't really reflect a mindset of someone who is thinking about the game critically. The shade towards me just feels like the type of post scum thinks is a really great "gotcha" moment, but if xtoxm is town I think he realizes why I say that? Maybe I am reading too much into this post because it is directed towards me and it made me miffed, but it really doesn't feel townie.

You're absolutely reading more into it than is there. Pointing out that you gave intent to hammer and have been wanting to wagon him

does

give reasonable doubt to whether you actually want to reach out, and saying that is not shading you. It is perfectly reasonable to point out that you're showing two, opposite, sides of the coin in regards to him, without it being a shade on you; when I read that post, I took it as an attempt to reach out to you, not an attempt to shade you. Because pointing out that you're giving intent on him does show that you're not truly reaching out to him, or at least it is a perfectly reasonable conclusion to have reached. (Wanting to reach out to someone and giving intent to hammer them are not mutually exclusive, but I can see Xtoxm seeing them as such.) Pointing out perceived confbias on your part to him is something I don't see as scum.

Essentially, I'm not even arguing these point to scum!xtoxm. While I do think xtoxm has decent equity to flip scum, I would not be at all surprised if he flips town.
=======
The real reason why it's smart to kill off xtoxm today is simply because we're going to have to eventually. He has scum equity. And I don't think this slot is ever going to pull itself out of the PoE by virtue of suddenly posting amazing content. A significant portion of the player list is going to come back to this slot day after day if we don't eliminate it. If xtoxm truly has stopped caring about the game, this isn't going to stop. The towniness has to come from xtoxm, and from what I've seen, this isn't going to happen. Consequently, if the slot is town, xtoxm is never getting night killed. I don't want to see this slot near f3! Truly, I feel it's a no brainer at this point to eliminate a slot that doesn't seem to care, has a relatively decent amount of scum equity, and has had multiple counter wagons + people defending / pushing him.

It's not lazy. It's healthy for the game state, has a chance at hitting scum, and progresses the game forward SO THAT we can focus on other slots.

What happens to the xtoxm slot if we wagon Agar or mastina or cephrir or the worst or fucking hercule today? What happens to xtoxm tomorrow? How do people's perceptions of the slot change? Does xtoxm suddenly start caring about the game again now that they're not being wagoned? If xtoxm didn't care as town being put at el-1 than why would he care at any other point?

And all of this? This boils down to "policy-lynch".
I just described with 1.5 word (not sure if a hyphenated phrase counts as one word, two words, or both), what you described over these paragraphs.

You're literally pulling a mastina in wordiness describing the concept of a policy-lynch, on me mastina. You're saying in a lot of words what boils down to "Xtoxm is a policy-lynch". You're not saying anything else on him in this quoted section; these words all boil down to eliminating him off of policy.

Policy-lynching Xtoxm might be the smart play, but it is still POLICY and policy is lazy.

So I stand by my assessment. Xtoxm is a lazy elimination.
Sure, he's largely null, he could be scum, and he'll never stop being that, never stop being null, never become conftown and thus will always be possible-scum.

He's just not scum because gut+what little reasons I have, with me being able to follow his thought process and see the town in it.
He is a policy-lynch, and eliminating him off of policy due to the largely null nature of his slot is okay.

It just will never be anything other than lazy--you're casting the RNG die on whether he's town or scum and I happen to believe, quite strongly, he's town here. A policy elimination isn't the worst D1. But yes, I stick to it being lazy.

[mastina]

Drafting a post in a team PT is exactly the sort of post that would be close to zero effort for him to do.

Proof?

I've played with him before in games he had PTs.

Fucked if I'd be able to track down which games tho.

[mastina]

If xtoxm flips scum:

And WHEN Xtoxm flips town, literally everything in your 3028 is invalid.

mastina is the closest but her best argument boils down to xtoxm wouldn't play so shit as scum

No, that's my argument for why ABR's town.
My argument for ABR being town is that he wouldn't play so shit as scum.
My argument for Xtoxm being town is that I can track his thought process and see how it comes from town and it looks fluid/organic, combined with overwhelmingly strong gut.

Yeah if you wanted xtoxm to live you'd either towncase xtoxm or push a legitimate scum case on me.

For the record--this is a contributing factor to why, of the names that I am townreading but I see as necessarily containing 1-2 scum, Ythan tops the charts. Ythan fits as the final scum in a Cephrir-AGar-hercule team fairly well. While I like his push against hercule, this type of content does fit as scum.

well, fair enough. maybe he's just a liability

You're bad or scum fyi

Guess which of those two I lean towards?

[mastina]

Mathblade is fairly confident that Mastina/Xtoxm is scum.

He thinks that mastina calling his reads very hit or miss is not how reads work

And yet, with MathBlade having scumreads on me, Xtoxm, and Titus?

He's 0 for 3 because I'm town, Titus is town, and Xtoxm is town, sooooooooo.

When I said his reads would be hit-or-miss, feast-or-famine.

That assessment was dead-on accurate because he's completely missed. He's got zero right scumreads, so when I said he'd be hit or miss, a characterization he said isn't accurate...it actually was because he did a complete miss here. It's simply fact. Because I am town, I overwhelmingly feel Xtoxm is town, and this is Titus's towngame. So as long as he has scumreads on all three of us, he has a complete miss so I will stand by my assessment.

he's also telling me to claim; we are a tracker.

This is sadly nai--when I came in and did setup spec, I was expecting scum to have [partial redaction on setup spec], with a fairly weak investigative. I was guessing [redacted due to setup spec], but tracker would be loosely comparable to [redacted guess] in power for the scum.

And when I did setup spec for the town roles, tracker fit into the power I expected, too. So the claim is entirely null. I believe it's a real claim; I just can't call it a town claim, rip.

3079 is hoooorseshit.

why?

My guess: AGar misread the room and thought that him saying this would, with people already running Xtoxm up, not be something that people would call out.

[mastina]

I'm not processing these recent pages all too well
I'm just not in mafia mindset right now, but I don't imagine for this to be forever

Fair warning, I gotta dip out for a similar reason--another obligation is taking my attention. Has been since halfway through my second post.

if anyone wants to towncase him, hit me.

ABR wouldn't be playing this shit as scum.

- assuming AGar/Xtoxm are both town (SS' read) there is one scum defending them

AGar isn't town but if there's scum defending Xtoxm it'd be Ythan, tho that's not an elimination I'd want to push.

[mastina]

You can't do setup spec without any flips lmao.

You can when you're a NRG member who has a reasonably good guess for what the roles in this game will be just off of years of experience in the NRG.