Mini Normal 2187: PIFiMDM [game over!]

[Dannflor]

I mean, 2ndchosen, what do you think of me repeatedly saying that NSG is my most confident town read and someone I'm basically never considering as scum at this point.

I'm not asking you to sheep me unquestionably but I found it so odd you're pursuing this seemingly without pause or without questioning my read?

[Dannflor]

sorry I went to go bake cookies

[Dannflor]

It's not a thought I want to paranoia myself into consdering this point until a few things happen. I could also maybe see Kazyan/NSG in that position as well which is why I asked you more about your confidence in NSG read

I'm not really considering NSG at all at this point

I didn't really see a why beyond the solo solving sessions and meta in 1329. I partially dismissed the meta as it wasn't enough for me to interact with and the solo sessions are a definitely a point in favor of NSG.

okay that's fair

I suppose asking you to take my word for it meta-wise is a bit much. I was just surprised to see not even any real questioning of "how sure are you really about this" in my direction.

[Dannflor]

I just also have some pressure in that I probably won't be around the next day phase (although I've said that like twice already lol) that I want to make sure no one goes into any such Elo with conceptions that I could've tried harder to correct

[Dannflor]

VOTE: elements

nsg isn't scum.

[Dannflor]

if I had to pick a team it would be elements/2nd

I still feel like, good, about my Kazyan read but not confident enough to like ardently defend them

[Dannflor]

but yeah I think it would be best to end the day

[Dannflor]

good luck y'all

[Dannflor]

HahahHHhHhHhaahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahahagaga

[Dannflor]

Obviously no one vote yet

[Dannflor]

I’m playing dnd at the moment but I’ll answer that when I’m done

[Dannflor]

10:3 is pretty standard

given the town roles we know are in the game

3 is pretty much a given

[Dannflor]

Yeah, I have thoughts but I'm gonna hold back for everyone else to go first if you don't mind

[Dannflor]

I'm rather embarrassed to still be alive

[Dannflor]

I'm bad at this game

[Dannflor]

Kazyan, why is unwnd scum? I understand it's PoE from your point of view but I don't have that luxury.

[Dannflor]

Lunar, I'm interested in knowing who you think scum is now

[Dannflor]

I was just curious if you'd make something up

[Dannflor]

Also, I think the vig should claim now

[Dannflor]

Do not vote anyone else.

Kazyan, I might be blind but I’m not seeing your crumb

[Dannflor]

Even if you are sure which one is correct just give me some time

[Dannflor]

I see

2nd chosen and lunar I want your thoughts on this ASAP, preferably without any votes yet

[Dannflor]

Just to be sure, what was the N1 shot?

[Dannflor]

Also, I think the vig should claim now

It's me. Hi. I breadcrumbed it in 1372.

Sorry about the bad shots.

I don't see the breadcrumb?

First letter of every sentence including quotes

[Dannflor]

Not sure if this was directed towards me

both of you really, that's what I thought I just wanted to confirm

[Dannflor]

Why wait to crumb until day four? I kinda think this is a SvS gambit.

The real vig would have counter-counter-claimed if that were the case

[Dannflor]

Lunar thinking this could be SvS is also

I don't think it actually says much towards their alignment considering just a page ago they were wondering if perhaps I was a scum IC

[Dannflor]

Why wait to crumb until day four?

I do want this answered though.

[Dannflor]

Lunar thinking this could be SvS is also

I don't think it actually says much towards their alignment considering just a page ago they were wondering if perhaps I was a scum IC

That was a joke. [Joke]Next time ill put joke tags around it[/Joke]

I figured it's just still like

you say pretty off the wall stuff sometimes

[Dannflor]

I have some stuff I want to double check about the game and then I'll be ready to vote. I've been at work all day but I'll get to it now that I'm home. Thanks for waiting everyone.

[Dannflor]

Why wait to crumb until day four?

I do want this answered though.

I also want this still

[Dannflor]

thank you lunar martian

[Dannflor]

Kazyan, what mafia site do you come from previously? Or is this your first experience with forum mafia

[Dannflor]

Well, the two main teams I'm looking at are Kazyan/2ndchosen and unwnd/Lunar. I don't really think the other combination makes much sense based mostly on interactions between Lunar and Kazyan.

[Dannflor]

Why wait to crumb until day four? I kinda think this is a SvS gambit.

honestly kind of a strange post to make if Lunar is aligned with either of them

not unfakeable I suppose but definitely not an expected scum post

[Dannflor]

Are we sure these second night kills come from a vigilante rather than a serial killer?

hm

[Dannflor]

I assume Gamma was the vig shot night 2?

[Dannflor]

oh right unwnd already said it was and you didn't contradict that

[Dannflor]

Kazyan, I'm having a hard time believing you shot Gamma when he was among your top town reads and you didn't really have any discernible reason to sheep the newly replaced in NSG at that time :/

[Dannflor]

I also like to read the wiki

I'm guessing this is where you got the idea to crumb?

[Dannflor]

kaz/elements and kaz/2nd

(which currently seem to me to be the two most likely teams, if it wasn't clear)

thing is i don't have a lot of reasons to scumread 2nd individually and honestly the connections between kaz and 2nd are a little sparse, at least purely from memory

I guess one question is why NSG was killed over Lunar if the team is something like unwnd/2nd, and the only really satisfying answer I can think of barring extreme WIFOM is that lunar would have to be scum... But I'm not sure I really believe they are aligned with anyone here.

[Dannflor]

Maybe I should be more suspicious of Lunar than I am, but I'm really trying and just failing to see them as mafia

[Dannflor]

Also I don't like elements voting limbaity Lunar.

Well this post kind of sums up my thoughts on NoPower very nicely. NoPower makes a lot of short posts that don't say much. Most of them just serve to lightly discredit other people (in this case discrediting me somewhat and elements somewhat more). I also think this post is pretty ironic given what NoPower proceeded to do the next few days in terms of going after me. For someone who keeps touting the importance of finding Town, I'm not sure who NoPower thinks is Town. Not even sure if he ever even answered who is in the "townblock".

I want to give a list of my thoughts.
These folks are of the Town: Gamma, Hayker, Ben, Kazyan probably, Papa Zito maybe.
Elements has a fair shot of being Town.
Unsure of Alchemist, HeWhoSwims, and 2ndchosen1.
I think PenguinPower and NoPower are probably my two top picks for Mafia.

this makes it feel like a lunar/unwnd team is somewhat unlikely

although this suspicion is dropped later somewhat randomly

[Dannflor]

sigh

so lunar wants to vote Kazyan and 2nd wants to vote unwnd

[Dannflor]

I got a Bulletproof Townie eliminated

Did you really? You were voting Hayker at the end of day 1

Are we sure these second night kills come from a vigilante rather than a serial killer?

also Kazyan I feel like I need an explanation on this

[Dannflor]

Would love to yeet within {Hayker/NPOM/LM} today.

No desire to yeet within {PZ/GE/Alch/Elements} today.

{PP/Kazyan/Swims/Chosen} don't feel like flips where they'd give enough information as currently constructed, but there is likely some scumbag in there.

VOTE: Hayker

hmmm I mean it would certainly explain why AGar was night killed if he perfectly nailed the scum team day 1

[Dannflor]

Papa Zito also thought unwnd/lunar were scum (or at least not town read) and he was another night kill

[Dannflor]

well if I voted you that wouldn't be why

[Dannflor]

unwnd, what confused you about the night results? like, what was your reaction to elements flipping town? I'm somewhat surprised you tried to shoot 2ndchosen

[Dannflor]

So I think I was confused when I scumread NoPower.

Lunar, if you remember, I need an explanation on what happened here

[Dannflor]

I guess I shouldn't discount the possibility of unwnd/2nd

[Dannflor]

Lunar, 2nd, have you both pretty much made up your minds completely?

[Dannflor]

Dann if you vote me over Kaz after that post I don't even know what to say lol

not helpful

I'll lay out my thought process tonight and hopefully come to a decision by tomorrow

[Dannflor]

please do

on its own it just feels manipulative

[Dannflor]

Here's the deal unwnd. I'm prepared to vote you. I'll explain my reasoning so you have your chance to call me out as stupid or an idiot or whatever. But really, if you're town, I'd love it if you tried a strategy that wasn't just guilting me into voting Kazyan because the AtE doesn't actually make me want to vote you any less.

If we talk about purely gut reads, my town read of Kazyan has basically just steadily grown throughout the game, while I keep having to talk myself into town reading your slot. NPOM I town read heavily for D1, but I fear now I was just pocketed.

And, honestly, the facts seem to point towards town!Kazyan and scum!unwnd.

For the most part, I'm assuming you aren't scum aligned with 2ndchosen1. Maybe it's possible, but looking at your guys' rather unproductive back and forth over the last couple day phases, I have a really hard time seeing it as theatre. It looks either TvT or SvT. If it really is just distancing, bravo.

So, let's look at the objective facts of the game because my gut is so twisty turny and AtE has not helped that one bit.

1. NPOM is the sole hard defender of the Alchemist wagon D1. It is an IC backed wagon on town that looks like it's the surefire end of day wagon. NPOM makes posts like this, this, and this to state his opposition to the Alchemist wagon. He also lists 2nd and Elements as the most suspicious on the wagon while he votes Penguin Power. Shortly after these posts, I change my mind on Alchemist and come in with several lengthy posts detailing why we should switch to Hayker, backing up AGar's original case.

Immediately after this, NPOM votes like so:

Hayker isn't my first choice but I can vote him as a compromise wagon.

VOTE: Hayker

2. After AGar posts a case on Hayker and details his reads coming into the game, Lunar Martian votes him here. Citing this reasoning:

why

His reads seem backwards and he's being overly aggressive. Feels like he's trying to bully his way into having people think he's Town.

Then as the Alchemist wagon picks up, only to switch to Hayker due to me backing up AGar, Lunar posts this series:

I think I figured something out and won't be voting for Papa today. I'd go for alchemist, and AGar is actually making sense about Hayker too. Want to see more from Hayker before I decide. For now I'll vote alchemist.
VOTE: alchemist

VOTE: Hayker

AGar's "screw Hayker" masterpost is convincing. I basically have no idea what Hayker's broader reads are.

Willing to switch to Alchemist at a moment's notice, though.

Dislike this.

At this point we've been around in circles so many times that I'm getting a bit lost. I think the day needs to end. I had a very good feeling about Hayker before, but if that's the direction people want to go I'll vote there if people want. Still prefer Alchemist I think.

3. After I try to solve the game on Day 2 and fail miserably by putting both Papa Zito and the NSG slot in my scum team, Kazyan posts this:

Going to partially object to Section 5 in the gamesolve post, here, and shine a light on 2ndchosen1. He is the only other player who cast some kind of doubt on Hayker being scum, in 820. This was a WIFOM argument, and PZ's defense of the "neither Hayker nor Dannflor died, but that was all according to plan" is

also

a WIFOM argument. These ideas feel like they're following the same side-chat playbook. Further, HWS has offered a reason for not voting for Hayker tonight, while 2nd has merely made commentary, the same way that PZ has.

My vote is already placed on Hayker. Everyone in this conversation aside from PZ has also done so. To the next person to show up: please hammer before the end of the forum page.

They also continue the next day phase with posts such as this and this.

4. We know that the night kills were: AGar, Papa Zito, northsidegal, and in that order. We know that the vig shots were: PenguinPower, Gamma Emerald, and either a holster if Kazyan is the vig or an attempted shot at 2ndchosen1 if unwnd is the vig.

5. Finally, Kazyan immediately responded to AGar's initial case on Hayker with:

VOTE: Hayker

AGar's "screw Hayker" masterpost is convincing. I basically have no idea what Hayker's broader reads are.

Willing to switch to Alchemist at a moment's notice, though.

=============

My interpretation of this game's events is that unwnd/Lunar is the scum team.

If we refer to point #3, I have a really hard time seeing Kazyan/2ndchosen1 has scum aligned. If you are town unwnd, I'm surprised you haven't noticed this yourself and that you seem to have so little paranoia about Lunar Martian. Post #853 is *really* unnecessary from a scum buddy that just saw the IC make a game solve post that includes two townies and one of their buddies. Kazyan is basically saying, oh well you've caught Hayker? Let me throw 2ndchosen1 in for you too! And like, it's not just random either, they vote and push 2ndchosen1 for a little while before they flip their read in #1224 which reads to me like a genuine reappraisal of the slot. There's no real reason for this flip to if Kazyan had decided they wanted to soft-bus or hard-bus. It's just too weird of a progression to come from scum buddies in my opinion. Am I missing something here?

I feel points #1 and #2 are fairly self explanatory. Obviously, you can't answer for your predecessor's actions. But to explain my thought process, NPOM's defense of Alchemist doesn't feel real. It feels like the type of defense scum does when they KNOW town is about to flip and they want to absolve themselves as well as setting up future eliminations. NPOM specifically names 2nd chosen and elements as scummiest on the wagon, but doesn't actually try to push them in any discernible way even after the flip. It just feels like setting them up to set them up. His vote on Hayker only comes *after* I specifically drive the wagon over to him and only as a compromise.

Lunar's progression is all over the place too. First Lunar immediately pushes AGar after AGar posts his reads list, stating it feels fake and too aggressive. Later, Lunar revises this into "AGar is making sense about Hayker" and eventually votes Hayker as a compromise even though Lunar 'would really rather switch to Alchemist.'

In retrospect, both of these progressions are *really bad.* They smell of scum hoping they can get the Alchemist wagon in while setting themselves up with as much plausibly deniability as possible. Lunar's reaction to AGar's case and AGar's subsequent death also both make A LOT of sense if AGar had managed to nail the scum team coming into the game.

On the other hand, let's look at Kazyan's response to AGar's case in #5. They immediately vote Hayker. Granted, they do say they'd be willing to switch to Alchemist, but there's really no reason to come in here and back up AGar, the new replacement's, case. This also comes directly after Kazyan speaks about picking a wagon and sticking to it since D1 is getting close to done in #632, which makes it even weirder that Kazyan would stick onto their scum buddy instead of going for the IC approved wagon on town.

Finally, I don't know that I really believe shooting 2ndchosen1 is a decision you make as town? As I've been over, there are serious reasons to doubt that Kazyan/2ndchosen1 are aligned, and the fact that you took such a risk and risked forgoing another day phase of discussion seems really... I mean, I get the impression you are a good mafia player, unwnd. That wasn't a good decision if you're town. Meanwhile, Kazyan claims they holstered as nsg advised in #1309.

And here's the thing about NSG, I thought that night kill would have made most sense coming from a 2ndchosen1/Kazyan team, but that's really not true at all. Checking her ISO, NSG was pretty opposed to the idea of that specific team. In fact, she stated that she thought Lunar/Kazyan was more likely and starting turning around her read on Lunar towards the end of the day. She starts to make more sense as a night kill target from a potential unwnd/Lunar team than Kazyan/2ndchosen1 in that case.

Papa Zito and AGar both suspected the NPOM/unwnd and Lunar slots. Really basic night kill analysis and yes you can always argue WIFOM and that scum were just looking for the vig... But here's the thing, if scum were looking for the vig, they'd also want to shoot slots they suspected of shooting the scum team. There's no point in shooting a vig that's just gonna shoot town. When you put these three night kills together the scum team starts to feel obvious. There's also the small fact of me being alive and basically having NPOM and Lunar as two lean town to town reads the entirety of the game until now.

Also, let's look at this day phase. Honestly, I don't feel like either unwnd or Lunar is still attempting to figure out the game. They feel informed. Of course, Kazyan and unwnd should both lock scum the other. However, I still see Kazyan and 2ndchosen1 expressing some lingering doubts and paranoia despite the game being relatively straight forward. It still feels like they're trying to work things out. Unwnd and Lunar, neither of you feel this way. It just feels like you're waiting for me to make a decision and you have no need to double check yourself. The closest I got was Lunar's weird "SvS" comment but after I corrected that Lunar immediately went to scum!Kazyan as the solve. I just feel like if either of you were town you'd be doing something more right now, reading back over the thread, doublechecking yourself on things, anything. On the other hand, although Kazyan and 2ndchosen1 yes do monologue "without purpose," it does still feel like they are *trying.* And that reads town to me.

I had a better thought while I looked at it last night, but to summarize it's just a lot of monologuing without purpose, which is funny to me because 2ndchosen/Kaz have basically taken the same approach. The other landmine there is at the end of the post where they say

possibility and just accept that if

we execute unwnd tonight

, I will use my

last shot

on Lunar and leave the rest to Datisi.

Like...cmon Dann.

In response to this I don't really have anything to say. I don't see what's bad about this wording. Yes, it'll be the big last shot of the game. I don't think "tonight" instead of "today" is a slip. This feels like a weird reachy thing to go all "cmon Dann" over.

Need I remind you they've also questioned if the 2nd shot was a SK which is such a bizzare thing to do if you know you're the one making the shots

It feels a bit cheap to point something like that but why would a townie by thinking about a night action that involves more than one person

I was actually quite satisfied with Kazyan's explanation that they threw that out there to throw scum off the scent that they might be the vig. Like, yeah it definitely caught my eye at first. But Kazyan seems pretty self aware and I almost don't think they would even try to fake claim vig with this in their ISO. I dunno, if this is the best you have, then I don't know what to say.

I'm sorry if I'm wrong and I hope you can point out the glaring flaws in my thinking if I am but... I'm not seeing it currently.

[Dannflor]

Kazyan came into the day pushing unwnd/Lunar as the most likely pairing

and then claimed vig

what are you talking about

[Dannflor]

okay but like Kazyan wasn't town reading you so why did you say that lol

[Dannflor]

I'd rather be wrong than be afraid of being wrong. I was willing to shoulder the blame on 2ndchosen which is why I took the shot, mostly because I have a growing impatience if I have a gun (lol) and because I felt the need to redeem myself. The process of convincing you and saying all of these things is because I know I'm town and I really just want you to trust in me. I said it prior and I hold myself to the same standard: It's not scummy to defend yourself, and I actually take this lesson very closely as I uh, made this mistake in another game. It was one with Lunar in it, where I started to think petapan (my other SE) was scummy cause he spent all this time trying to explain why it wasn't him. Meanwhile, Lunar kept waffling and made a bunch of 'oh im nervous and im unsure' stuff that I started to think was pure, fearing that peta just wanted to wrap the game up.

That's fair and I agree with all of that for the most part.

I have no idea how it really portends to this game. I guess I can buy you just took the shot because you were really confident and/or selfish? But from an objective standpoint I feel it's always better to have another dayphase in this case.

Also, I don't think you're scummy for defending yourself or anything. I'm literally begging you to defend yourself more

[Dannflor]

I guess I understand what you're saying there more

But like, I'm not asking you to second guess yourself constantly

I'm just mystified why you haven't reconsidered Lunar at all I suppose?

[Dannflor]

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=85279

is that this game?

[Dannflor]

For the record, I said "last shot" because I'm a 3-shot vigilante (not that it actually matters how many I have left), and I already used my first two shots on Penguin and Gamma.

why didn't you claim this before?

[Dannflor]

That's just preposterous, X-Shots are typically either one or two

I have no limit to my shots btw

but also like why do they claim 3-shot lol

[Dannflor]

Town Vigilante
Town Jack-of-all-Trades (Neapolitan, Gunsmith, Tracker)
Bulletproof Townie
Innocent Child Jailkeeper Enabler

x6 VTs

Mafia Jailkeeper
Mafia Informed
Mafia Goon

======

Town 3-shot Vigilante
Town Jack-of-all-Trades (Neapolitan, Gunsmith, Tracker)
Bulletproof Townie
Innocent Child Jailkeeper Enabler

x6 VTs

Mafia Jailkeeper
Mafia Informed
Mafia Goon

[Dannflor]

I guess I can't assume the third scum is a goon?

[Dannflor]

scum looks a bit weak as is

[Dannflor]

Saying stuff like 'we typically don't vote the claimed doc' just add 2ndchosen into this.

I was the one who said this

[Dannflor]

I'll look at 2ndchosen1 again with this lens

[Dannflor]

There's also the fact that the jailkeeper is conditional on keeping me alive

[Dannflor]

we don't hammer a doctor claim

other people probably just echoed this afterward

[Dannflor]

I'll look at 2ndchosen1 again with this lens

Do u still want the case cause like

I honestly don't like going hard on cases and just try to wing it (but I'll make the exception here)

I mean like

if there's anything specifically you want to draw my attention to, then please do

I'm not gonna ask you to write up a wall as long as I did but like if you have any thing specific off the top of your head you want to be sure I see or that is bugging you then sure write that out

[Dannflor]

lolol im sorry for this tin foil but what if both the vigs are real

[Dannflor]

nah probably too many confirmable townies then

[Dannflor]

And yeah I'll wait unwnd

[Dannflor]

Ugh I thought this was gonna be a nice laidback no-pressure stress-free game of mafia after I rolled IC

[Dannflor]

nah probably too many confirmable townies then

Also scum woulda hammered lol

Ignore me I’m getting crazy

[Dannflor]

I believe unwnd is Mafia. I'm not sure about partners, I'll have to re-read which I do not have time to do at the moment.

Oh yeah, I forgot. Unwnd is Town 90%. I'm ready to vote Kazyan.

lunar wtf happened here

[Dannflor]

hmmm

[Dannflor]

thank you unwnd

I'll do one last look at the game when I get home tonight

[Dannflor]

yeah I’ve stalled out the game long enough

[Dannflor]

I'm sorry if this is wrong

VOTE: unwnd

[Dannflor]

UNVOTE: unwnd

okay unwnd my problem here is that all that scum read really does is make me paranoid about a 2ndchosen1/unwnd world

like I can't bring myself to scum read Kazyan

[Dannflor]

I mean, that doesn't feel particularly compelling considering this game has divided pretty neatly into unwnd and Lunar vs. Kazyan and 2ndchosen1.

Kazyan has already stated he'd shoot Lunar upon you flipping scum so I feel like this is the make or break flip for you (although that's true regardless of alignment)

[Dannflor]

honestly right now I'm just trawling through your meta unwnd to see if you ever use AtE like this as scum

[Dannflor]

yeah sorry I don't mean everything

I'm just wary because I've manipulated by that type of stuff in f3 before

[Dannflor]

I'm pretty certain where the shot came from/who did it but prefer not to reveal it

No this isn't a funny way of saying I did it

...

[Dannflor]

lol I feel bad

I really need to make a decision so I can do this homework that's already late but

I can't stop rereading this game

I've changed my mind I hate being IC

[Dannflor]

I don't consider that a crumb, it's just me being cheeky with my role

it does feel like it's unlikely you would say that as town with an actual idea of who the vig is

which conversely makes me feel like it's unlikely you'd say it as scum

[Dannflor]

that's... not something that would actually happen I don't think

[Dannflor]

I'm not worried about the deadline, I believe datisi will pause it if a replacement becomes necessary

[Dannflor]

yknow what unwnd I believe you

again sorry if I'm wrong

VOTE: kazyan

fire when ready Lunar Martian

[Dannflor]

hm gg

yeah all day I was going Kazyan is so towny

but 2ndchosen is so scummy

close but so far

well played both of you

[Dannflor]

it feels close but it would've taken a lot of work

especially with Lunar scum reading Kazyan and Kazyan scum reading Lunar / town reading 2ndchosen1

you distanced well

[Dannflor]

one day I'll win an F3/F5

one day

[Dannflor]

final 3 and final 5

any situation where the elimination decides the game

[Dannflor]

sorry forgot I didn't post yesterday, am around.
My position is unchanged on both unwnd and kaz. again it seems like cheap attempts to discredit me. so since it's been coming
VOTE: unwnd

honestly this post was so scummy it made me vote kazyan, I just didn't stop to consider why it was so scummy

also I'm sorry Kaz you played so well, but alas

[Dannflor]

Also general mafia consensus was to bring you to the end

mean and rude

[Dannflor]

Haha I know

it's just so much pressure

[Dannflor]

I thought I would love it but this F5 has taken years off my life

[Dannflor]

well this was a very well played scum game imo, so maybe people will town read you less now

My heart never stopped wanting to believe you, I'd tone/gut town read you since you replaced in

it was just my head telling me you were scum here, which I should have listened to in hindsight but I don't think my head would have gotten to 2ndchosen/unwnd in time anyway

[Dannflor]

it was a fun game despite the stress

gg wp

[Dannflor]

Thanks for modding datisi

[Dannflor]

The dead PT thought Lunar was my partner

didn't we all

[Dannflor]

Also, Kazyan, I thought you played really well and me eventually voting you had nothing to do with your slot in the end

don't beat yourself up too bad

[Dannflor]

Yeah, I actually remembering considering that option (I debated how hard it would be to get two people to vote 2ndchosen1), but for some reason I dropped the idea and I can't remember why

[Dannflor]

I was wondering where you were and thought it was slightly scum indicative that you weren’t around which fed into my bias about the unwind/lunar team

Just unfortunate