Mafia Bots Challenge

[Farren]

Arezou voted for an odd-numbered bot?

[Farren]

I'd come to the same conclusion. Vasyl's in the same boat.

[Farren]

VOTE: Renata

Yeah, that might be enough to tip the balance there.

[Farren]

VOTE: Wilburh

[Farren]

Juta's a bad choice here.

Of the seven remaining not-Juta bots:

Juta can't be scum with Maryana; Juta voted for Maryana on D1.
Juta can't be scum with Vasyl; Juta voted for Vasyl on D2.
Juta can't be scum with Hagano; Juta voted for Hagano on D3.
Juta can't be scum with Heidimarie; Heidimarie voted for Juta on D1 and D3.

That leaves Ginette, Dwi, and Beata.

Dwi can't be scum with Ginette; Dwi voted for Ginette on D3 (and had one guaranteed-Town option in Abdul). So Juta/Dwi/Ginette is out. Only two possible teams with Juta: Juta/Dwi/Beata, or Juta/Ginette/Beata.

Both those teams have Beata, and Beata has plenty of available scum-partners.

[Farren]

Dwi: has to join a wagon. So far, Dwi has not been on the winning wagon - so in every case, Dwi could have voted for a known Town Bot, but did not. Ergo, if Dwi is scum, Dwi did not vote for a partner.

Of the seven remaining not-Dwi bots:

Dwi can't be scum with Maryana (d1 vote).
Dwi can't be scum with Vasyl (d2 vote).
Dwi can't be scum with Ginette (d3 vote).
Dwi can't be scum with Hagano (Hagano's D1 vote).

Leaving Juta, Beata, and Heidimarie. We already know Juta/Dwi/Heidimarie is out because of Juta, so Dwi has only two possible teams - Juta/Dwi/Beata, Dwi/Beata/Heidimarie.

Three possible scumteams having (at least one of Juta/Dwi).
- Juta/Dwi/Beata
- Juta/Ginette/Beata
- Dwi/Heidimarie/Beata

Dwi is also a bad choice.

[Farren]

Hagano's looking pretty good too. Like Juta, another random voter.

Dwi: D1 vote
Maryana: voted for D2 (has to choose between three, but had three different not-self to choose from)
Ginette: voted for D2 (odd numbers, but Ginette had four non-self odds to choose from)
Juta: voted for D3 (random, lots of choices).

That leaves Beata, Heidimarie, and Vasyl as potential partners. Vasyl and Beata can't work together (Vasyl voted for Beata D1), so possible teams here with Hagano are:
Hagano/Beata/Heidimarie;
Hagano/Vasyl/Heidimarie.

[Farren]

Maryana's already cleared from working with anyone we've listed so far (Hagano, Dwi, Juta), but can't clear herself from associations with anyone else (Beata, Vasyl, Heidimarie, Ginette)

Of those four, Vasyl isn't with Beata or Ginette (due to Vasyl's votes; Vasyl's always had three to pick from, so must have had at least one Town to pick from if scum). If Maryana is with Vasyl, it must also be with Heidimarie. Otherwise, any of the other combos are good.

Maryana/Beata/Heidimarie
Maryana/Beata/Ginette
Maryana/Vasyl/Heidimarie
Maryana/Heidimarie/Ginette

[Farren]

Then at that point, we're down to four left. Teams with just three of Beata/Vasyl/Heidimarie/Ginette - Vasyl's out of that entirely from the logic above, which leaves Beata/Heidimarie/Ginette as the last possible team.

Possible teams:

Juta/Dwi/Beata
Juta/Beata/Heidimarie
Dwi/Beata/Heidimarie
Hagano/Beata/Heidimarie
Hagano/Vasyl/Heidimarie
Maryana/Beata/Heidimarie
Maryana/Beata/Ginette
Maryana/Vasyl/Heidimarie
Maryana/Heidimarie/Ginette
Beata/Heidimarie/Ginette

Ten possible teams.

Hagano: 20% scum
Ginette: 30% scum
Beata: 70% scum
Vasyl: 20% scum
Heidimarie: 80% scum
Juta: 20% scum
Dwi: 20% scum
Maryana: 40% scum.

If we're going to vote, Heidimarie looks like the best bet here.

Could someone check my logic? Did I miss anything?

[Farren]

Yup, you're right. copying error. -10% scum chance for Heidimarie, +10% scum chance for Ginette.

VOTE: no-elim

[Farren]

VOTE: Heidimarie

[Farren]

(copied from Snakes's post, not my own)

1. Juta/Dwi/Beata

(Dwi flipped Town)

2. Juta/Beata/Ginette

(uta voted for Beata when not required to)

3. Dwi/Beata/Heidimarie

(Dwi flipped Town)

4. Hagano/Beata/Heidimarie

5. Hagano/Vasyl/Heidimarie

(Vasyl flipped Town)

6. Maryana/Beata/Heidimarie

7. Maryana/Beata/Ginette

(Heidimarie flipped scum)

8. Maryana/Vasyl/Heidimarie

(Vasyl flipped Town)

9. Maryana/Heidimarie/Ginette

10. Beata/Heidimarie/Ginette

Today's votes:

Hagano still votes random; could have picked anyone if not scum. Chose Maryana, which yields nothing.
Ginette had to pick off-wagon. That leaves Vasyl and Juta, which yields nothing.
Beata had to vote Vasyl or Maryana; chose Vasyl. If Beata had chose Maryana, it would have cleared a team.
Vasyl flipped Town; don't care about his vote.
Juta's now locktown; don't care about his vote.
Maryana had no choice but to vote for Vasyl, so her vote is irrelevant.

And Beata's on all but one team.

VOTE: Beata