[SETUP] Mountainous Vengeful

MURDERCAT · Post Post #2 (isolation #0) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 12:57 pm

Did you calculate EV? I think this would be pretty fun. Town doesn't know that player C was killed night 0 correct?

MURDERCAT · Post Post #4 (isolation #1) » Wed Feb 03, 2021 1:08 pm

Expected town win rate based on random choices, e.g. https://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?ti ... #7P:_5_-_2
I can do it later, I'm curious

MURDERCAT · Post Post #8 (isolation #2) » Thu Feb 04, 2021 4:21 pm

I ran a quick simulation and got 25% win rate for town for the 5:2 variant and 20% for the 7:3 variant. 6:2 is 35% which might be better?

It's also possible I messed up, I'm pretty tired haha.

MURDERCAT · Post Post #14 (isolation #3) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 2:50 am

7:2 is 43%, that could be a sweet spot
Putting this in a pastebin so I don't have to save it somewhere if you want more numbers: https://pastebin.com/raw/sn49MMwj

MURDERCAT · Post Post #16 (isolation #4) » Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:25 am

Hmm I'm not sure, I'd have to see how popcorn has done compared to EV. It's really a wifom game, because town knows that they were chosen.