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Post Post #3625 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:06 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

Wow apparently there are just like 6 typos in that post. Go me.
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Post Post #3626 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:09 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

Also agree on Norwee because as Akarin already pointed out, both of us immediately voted DEB when we thought he had us in his PoE, then immediately unvoted when he claimed it was actually his townblock. I also think Norwee’s hard defending me after I was very wrong on TGP is town indicative. It’s kind’ve against his wincon if scum, to do that here. He also didn’t want Misty venged today. And none of my team srs him, so there’s that as well.
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Post Post #3627 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:15 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 3621, Thestatusquo wrote:I agree with everything norwee said about Pine. If pine is scum the last scum is likely fl. I don't understand the "exactly one scum in fl and pine" because to me they make a lot of sense as buddies.
The major problem with that is that both molla kill + town joat claim look just awful here for FL. If you read CoD, you’d know I had a soft guilty on him in that game and he came up with this extremely complex brilliant fakeclaim and that wasn’t a TM game, so you’re telling me that FL wouldn’t make more of an effort to fakeclaim something more believable than 3rd town joat?
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We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
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Post Post #3628 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:16 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 3616, Mistyx wrote:But point 3 doesn’t make sense and point 1 is factually wrong, klick had a full doc last year
Rainbow Healing!: During the night, you may activate your ability and target one player. If successful, this player will be protected from one night kill. You may do this twice during the game.
From last year^
It's 2-shot.
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Post Post #3629 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:27 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 3627, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3621, Thestatusquo wrote:I agree with everything norwee said about Pine. If pine is scum the last scum is likely fl. I don't understand the "exactly one scum in fl and pine" because to me they make a lot of sense as buddies.
The major problem with that is that both molla kill + town joat claim look just awful here for FL. If you read CoD, you’d know I had a soft guilty on him in that game and he came up with this extremely complex brilliant fakeclaim and that wasn’t a TM game, so you’re telling me that FL wouldn’t make more of an effort to fakeclaim something more believable than 3rd town joat?
I think the second thing is entirely nonsense. Also I think FL is perfectly capable of shooting molla. Why do you think hes not?
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Post Post #3630 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:29 am

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I should explain why I think its nonsense. It's just straight up WIFOM. It answers itself. "Why would scum player do X?" is always answered with "because of literally this argument."
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Post Post #3631 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:31 am

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Putting your belief in this theory that scum!Flavour always makes the perfect and most brilliant moves as scum and if he doesn't he is town is how you will fail to read him as scum under any circumstance because it's like you just assume he never makes mistakes or does something that's not perfectly brilliant.
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Post Post #3632 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:34 am

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oh
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Post Post #3633 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:35 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 3629, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3627, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3621, Thestatusquo wrote:I agree with everything norwee said about Pine. If pine is scum the last scum is likely fl. I don't understand the "exactly one scum in fl and pine" because to me they make a lot of sense as buddies.
The major problem with that is that both molla kill + town joat claim look just awful here for FL. If you read CoD, you’d know I had a soft guilty on him in that game and he came up with this extremely complex brilliant fakeclaim and that wasn’t a TM game, so you’re telling me that FL wouldn’t make more of an effort to fakeclaim something more believable than 3rd town joat?
I think the second thing is entirely nonsense. Also I think FL is perfectly capable of shooting molla. Why do you think hes not?
Because 3rd town joat has to be the worst possible fakeclaim to make here and that’s why I think it’s more likely true than not because scum!FL would come up with something better, because pretty much anything is more believable than 3rd town joat, which is why it’s probably true and the joats are weak, so I don’t understand why it’s not actually possible either?

And why is that “nonsense”? People take TM way more seriously than regular games and I think that’s definitely true for FL, so I think he’d come up with something more believable as scum.
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Post Post #3634 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:37 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 3633, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3629, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3627, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3621, Thestatusquo wrote:I agree with everything norwee said about Pine. If pine is scum the last scum is likely fl. I don't understand the "exactly one scum in fl and pine" because to me they make a lot of sense as buddies.
The major problem with that is that both molla kill + town joat claim look just awful here for FL. If you read CoD, you’d know I had a soft guilty on him in that game and he came up with this extremely complex brilliant fakeclaim and that wasn’t a TM game, so you’re telling me that FL wouldn’t make more of an effort to fakeclaim something more believable than 3rd town joat?
I think the second thing is entirely nonsense. Also I think FL is perfectly capable of shooting molla. Why do you think hes not?
Because 3rd town joat has to be the worst possible fakeclaim to make here and that’s why I think it’s more likely true than not because scum!FL would come up with something better, because pretty much anything is more believable than 3rd town joat, which is why it’s probably true and the joats are weak, so I don’t understand why it’s not actually possible either?

And why is that “nonsense”? People take TM way more seriously than regular games and I think that’s definitely true for FL, so I think he’d come up with something more believable as scum.
I explained. I think its completely WIFOM. "Why would town player do X." Well, you just said you think it makes him town, so that's a pretty compelling reason for scum to do X. Definitionally WIFOM.

You didn't answer the molla thing.
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Post Post #3635 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:37 am

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I can even answer how theoretical scum!Fl goes about this scenario you describe as unlikely Nancy.

Theory: FL doesn't claim JOAT because he is awesome as scum and knows it's not the best fake claim.

Debunking: FL crumbed JOAT when Zoraster did, at the point in the game where he only knew there might be one town JOAT. He did this before Molla crumbed JOAT and was killed at night. How does 2 JOAT's in a game look? Decently possible, how does 3 town JOAT's with two of them being clones look? Really bad. But FL was in fact LOCKED into making a JOAT claim precisely because it was pointed out earlier that he was crumbing exactly that and acted informed in response to Zor's claim. So FL could never claim anything BUT a JOAT here. So to claim he would have claimed something else as scum is logically impossible unless he wanted to be catched out for making obvious lies.
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Post Post #3636 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:39 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

I'm not even trying to say FL is scum necessarily, I'm just saying FL and Pine is a very plausible pairing to me. Just look at their associatives.
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Post Post #3637 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:39 am

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Crumbing a future JOAT claim when you knew there was likely 1 JOAT (Zoraster) and a second one (Molla) was not confirmed until he crumbed himself. Does make sense for scum!FL to do.
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Post Post #3638 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:40 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

I'm specifically trying to debunk the notion that FL and pine can't be scum together because I think that's literally handing scum!FL the game and I think that if Pine is scum FL is the most likely buddy.
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Post Post #3639 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:40 am

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Sure he can be town. But that means this setup is an highly unusual one with 3 town JOAT's just to mess with town. So it's your choice, is the setup weird as hell or is FL simply lying?
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Post Post #3640 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:43 am

Post by Akarin »

In post 3620, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:scum!FL is the master of fake claims and I think he probably would have caught that molla crumb, so would scum!FL be onboard with crumbing molla joat kill, then claim 3rd town joat? Like FL would have to be a complete idiot to do that here and I know he’s way too smart to claim 3rd town joat and kill molla. Math is probably freaking out over this but I really think FL’s town here.

Him backing off of Norwee and re-evaluating is also town indicative, I think. I also think FL!scum probably kills me > Ico.
I don't really think this argument holds up.

Scum have every reason to shoot a JOAT, and scum!FL presumably wouldn't have known Molla matched up to him exactly.

On top of that, scum isn't like required to true claim, we haven't announced any town rolecops, a lot of town power was already out in the open, and the follower JOAT was dead (Molla). scum!FL could have claimed whatever, even a 3rd JOAT with non-overlapping abilties.

So the question is
if
he would make a refuge in audacity claim like that or not. But there's no reason at all for him to have avoided killing Molla if he's scum.

Why do you think scum!FL would be more likely to kill you than Ico?
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Post Post #3641 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:44 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 3634, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3633, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3629, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3627, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3621, Thestatusquo wrote:I agree with everything norwee said about Pine. If pine is scum the last scum is likely fl. I don't understand the "exactly one scum in fl and pine" because to me they make a lot of sense as buddies.
The major problem with that is that both molla kill + town joat claim look just awful here for FL. If you read CoD, you’d know I had a soft guilty on him in that game and he came up with this extremely complex brilliant fakeclaim and that wasn’t a TM game, so you’re telling me that FL wouldn’t make more of an effort to fakeclaim something more believable than 3rd town joat?
I think the second thing is entirely nonsense. Also I think FL is perfectly capable of shooting molla. Why do you think hes not?
Because 3rd town joat has to be the worst possible fakeclaim to make here and that’s why I think it’s more likely true than not because scum!FL would come up with something better, because pretty much anything is more believable than 3rd town joat, which is why it’s probably true and the joats are weak, so I don’t understand why it’s not actually possible either?

And why is that “nonsense”? People take TM way more seriously than regular games and I think that’s definitely true for FL, so I think he’d come up with something more believable as scum.
I explained. I think its completely WIFOM. "Why would town player do X." Well, you just said you think it makes him town, so that's a pretty compelling reason for scum to do X. Definitionally WIFOM.

You didn't answer the molla thing.
Because scum!FL I would have expected to catch that molla crumb so his flip looks really terrible for him with that claim.
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We just need to tread carefully because if you slip up around her as scum she notices and will tear your spine out and slap you to death with it. (I'm slightly scared of Nancy)
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Post Post #3642 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:45 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 3641, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:Because scum!FL I would have expected to catch that molla crumb so his flip looks really terrible for him with that claim.
So you'd think scum!FL would let a town JOAT live, even if their flip might make him look bad?
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Post Post #3643 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:46 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

*Because their flip would make him look bad?

Killing PR's are a priority regardless so to say FL wouldn't shoot a PR is not a very good defense.
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Post Post #3644 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:47 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

In post 3641, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3634, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3633, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3629, Thestatusquo wrote:
In post 3627, Nancy Drew 39 wrote:
In post 3621, Thestatusquo wrote:I agree with everything norwee said about Pine. If pine is scum the last scum is likely fl. I don't understand the "exactly one scum in fl and pine" because to me they make a lot of sense as buddies.
The major problem with that is that both molla kill + town joat claim look just awful here for FL. If you read CoD, you’d know I had a soft guilty on him in that game and he came up with this extremely complex brilliant fakeclaim and that wasn’t a TM game, so you’re telling me that FL wouldn’t make more of an effort to fakeclaim something more believable than 3rd town joat?
I think the second thing is entirely nonsense. Also I think FL is perfectly capable of shooting molla. Why do you think hes not?
Because 3rd town joat has to be the worst possible fakeclaim to make here and that’s why I think it’s more likely true than not because scum!FL would come up with something better, because pretty much anything is more believable than 3rd town joat, which is why it’s probably true and the joats are weak, so I don’t understand why it’s not actually possible either?

And why is that “nonsense”? People take TM way more seriously than regular games and I think that’s definitely true for FL, so I think he’d come up with something more believable as scum.
I explained. I think its completely WIFOM. "Why would town player do X." Well, you just said you think it makes him town, so that's a pretty compelling reason for scum to do X. Definitionally WIFOM.

You didn't answer the molla thing.
Because scum!FL I would have expected to catch that molla crumb so his flip looks really terrible for him with that claim.
I...don't really think I agree with this logic.
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Post Post #3645 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:47 am

Post by Akarin »

FL's "I don't care about this game anymore, just kill me" schtick, along with the so-suspicious-it's-towny claim reminds me a lot of scum!Pooky in both the Dance game and the Trust Fall game. I can't shake that feeling.
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Post Post #3646 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:48 am

Post by NorwegianboyEE »

In post 3644, Thestatusquo wrote:I...don't really think I agree with this logic.
Yeah, i do not find myself agreeing with the notion that given the choice between killing a potentially powerful town PR and letting them live to keep your own crumb safe, it's so much more likely FL would just not shoot the JOAT.
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Post Post #3647 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:49 am

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This is assuming he even expected anyone to bring up his crumb in the first place without his prior planning to.
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Post Post #3648 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:50 am

Post by Thestatusquo »

For me today just boils down to this: I think JK makes much more sense as a scum claim than a town claim in this game and I think pine has done very little to indicate he's town.

I don't like his response of "THINK I'M THE ONLY TOWN PROTECTIVE POWER" as if that clears him when a) It's not true there are two town claimed/flipped roles with protective abilities and b) setups get run without town protective all the time.

Hell, akarin just finished playing a game I ran without a real town protective role.
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Post Post #3649 (ISO) » Thu Feb 11, 2021 5:50 am

Post by Nancy Drew 39 »

In post 3635, NorwegianboyEE wrote:I can even answer how theoretical scum!Fl goes about this scenario you describe as unlikely Nancy.

Theory: FL doesn't claim JOAT because he is awesome as scum and knows it's not the best fake claim.

Debunking: FL crumbed JOAT when Zoraster did, at the point in the game where he only knew there might be one town JOAT. He did this before Molla crumbed JOAT and was killed at night. How does 2 JOAT's in a game look? Decently possible, how does 3 town JOAT's with two of them being clones look? Really bad. But FL was in fact LOCKED into making a JOAT claim precisely because it was pointed out earlier that he was crumbing exactly that and acted informed in response to Zor's claim. So FL could never claim anything BUT a JOAT here. So to claim he would have claimed something else as scum is logically impossible unless he wanted to be catched out for making obvious lies.
Why does scum!FL crumb town!joat and be damned by Zor flip? If I’m scum joat here, I don’t want Zor flipped for obvious reasons. But yes, your point is valid.
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