Open 806: JK9++ (Game Over!)

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greet.

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scipio town, penguin hard town.

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infinity and/or notscience scum?

VOTE: Infinity 324

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Can I question these reads?

You most certainly can!

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There are certain vibes that I remember town-penguin giving off that I think scum-penguin gave off less and the double RVS vote (but also the rest of his stuff) gives me those. It's not actually that strong of a townread but I feel good about it for a page 1 read. I have vague memories in the before times of being good at reading him.

Scipio is the thing people mentioned, townish reaction to townslipping.

Implo probably has a good reason to TR penguin

This is an interesting take to see. I guess it's probably not useful for reading infinity but I want it to be.

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no real sr but isis entrance makes me go hmmmmmmm

I also felt this.

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I have vague memories in the before times of being good at reading him.

I have vague memories in the before times of scum!me beating you when you were my IC.

Ok...they aren't vague. I remember them.

There was some other game after that where you were town and I correctly hard townread you when other people didn't and I think I've decided that because that game happened later and I was correct in it, i'm actually Good at this game.

I also don't think I had a strong read on you in that game iirc? I think it was the comparison of the two that made me feel like I'd figured out how to read you

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I also like a lot of Datisi's posting. Particularly 60.

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We haven't really played enough games together for it to be meaningful sample-size wise I guess. I think the last game we played together i was scum too.

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Unvote

VOTE: ben dover123

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Infinity called ben dover town for being "relaxed" because he's new. I see Scipio, with like 5 fewer completed games, playing much more relaxed than ben. 149->155 is very town. Like, his whole reaction to pressure feels clearly town.

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I'm probably not going to be as solve-y as I have been in my last couple of games given that I want to take this game slow and get good reads/analysis over time. In my usual proactive style 1. I get burned out after the game and 2. my analysis isn't too great when I'm being overly proactive. So I'm planning to fix that here and try getting more accurate reads and raise my standards for giving out reads.

Don't really like this as a response to Datisi's probing. Feels like kind of a weasely way to get out of being caught- "yeah, I'm not playing to my town meta, but it's totally intentional".

It also *kind of* sidesteps the point, you can be solve-y without necessarily handing out free reads early.

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it's absolutely not actually a townslip. We've been referring to it as such or similar because... well obvious reasons.

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No, I didn't doubt my read on implo at all (until the capslock part, separately). I was just remarking that ironically, Scipio is actually towny. It was just still scummy for implo to post that Scipio was towny before implo had access to 81

Do you specifically think that this is something about this game in particular, or in general that that many reads that early can't happen?

In either case I heavily disagree.

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But yeah at this point I, like Infinity, TR scipio mostly for other reasons. Though it was why I did initially. The "townslip" is interesting because multiple people have called it town-indicative and multiple people have called it solidly NAI and at least one person has called it solidly scum-indicative but I doubt anyone commenting on it would really go out of their way to lie about how they'd interpret it if they are scum.

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I also think there is a pretty solid chance that bridgeburners are scum but that is very definitely something to litigate later.

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isis how would you respond if i told you that i give out reads like candy in the first few pages in like, half my games.

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how would you respond if i lied and said i haven't drawn scum in six years

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Can you expand on this read for me? I can't grasp the "bridgeburners being scum" take yet.

I mean just like, I don't

actually

know menalque's meta but i'm like 90% sure he's not outside of his scum range. So there's no reason to write them off as town, though there's no reason to run them up rn.

I do think there's probably an ever-so-slightly above random chance that all of the openwolfing comments from menalque actually do come from scum, but not enough so to matter.

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i was also oddly baffled because i did not click on the link of the all caps thing that was not explained in isis's post without clicking the link and had no idea what was being referred to

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I would like to know others' thoughts on this post actually

Is the thing you want thoughts on the manner in which she called you scum, or the fact that she thinks not finding that post towny is scummy? My interpretation is you want thoughts on the latter? In which case I would say, eh. It's possibly a little bit out-there of an accusation for scum to make that no town player could possibly disagree with her opinion. Or maybe she already thought you were scum and is not actually putting stock in you not thinking that post was towny as being indicative of you being scum.

This is like, the most semantically challenging post i think i've ever had to write

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i don't really have much opinion on isis right now. kinda trying to parse how she's viewing the game.

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hot fucking take:
327 is literally the most ai post that slot has made so far
also it's town!indicative

Why is it town indicative? I can buy it being the most useful thing they've said but it seems like it could be scum annoyed at a consensus townread and trying to contest it without really contesting it.

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Why? I'm fairly solidly townreading Mena's posting thus far.

I just, shrug. Nothing outside maybe the haiku thing actually made me feel like he was probably town. But it doesn't matter right now for many reasons, such as "this slot is probably gonna die n1 anyway if they're town" and "meh"

i feel like there was something else asked at me but i cannot remember what it was and am too lazy to search more than i have.

I think right now I have townreads as scipio > penguin > datisi > infinity (who i am coming around on) > possibly aaronfrost but i might just be letting other peoples' reads bias me here.

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yeah i do like some of aaron's stuff. 366 is a nice arc. the "i didn't townread this consensus townread but now i do for x" is townish. and x itself is also a somewhat townish thing to call out as townish.

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maybe we should all just sheep n_m.

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i have general mild good vibes from aaron with like two specific things that i like a little bit more (366 which I mentioned, also a bit on 167/266)

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I'm not really enamored with a ben vote anymore. Don't really want to vote schiavetto atm. His catchup post is... fine, I guess? I kind of like the take on bridgeburners as slightly coming from town. It has some nuance to it.

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- i'm kinda liking notsci rn

i feel this.

Who should we be voting then, implosion?

great question; as i said, we should all sheep not_mafia.

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which is to say, idk because a vote on not_mafia feels pointless.

VOTE: isis

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There's like, enough of a corpus of people that I feel okay about that isis is actually not a bad wagon. I went into this game thinking that I would try to avoid handing out townreads for bad reasons and I think i'm sort of failing that? but there's a big tier of people that I feel somewhat-okay on but wouldn't really call town yet. Aaron, notsci, Schiavetto.

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I don't really have much impetus to push the wagon but I feel like my vote is better used there than anywhere else atm.

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Where I'm at right now roughly is

Scipio, Penguin, Datisi

Infinity

Aaron, notsic, Schiavetto

ben dover

Secret Hydra, N_M, Isis, Bridgeburners


Secret hydra I notably haven't really actually invested any energy to try to read yet

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I just said why I'm voting isis.

The bottom tier isn't really scumreads, it's not-yet-townreads, I don't really have any good reasons to scumread anyone atm.

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Is Datisi like, a notably good scum player? Bc it seems like there's a decent amount of latent skepticism of him but I feel like he's been transparently town a couple times.

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this reads like you don't wanna commit to 'too many townreads', but also don't really wanna have scumreads that can bite you, ya feel?

The first part is probably true!

How are you easy to read? I don't think I've played with either head.

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i'm very lazy

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i could like explain to datisi why i find him obvtown but i don't really feel like it. i'll do it later if it's actually important

isis's posting is like, fine but, idk i kind of just want blood

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it's mostly new and by blood i mean blood of the people who i currently have as bottom tier reads.

basically i just am too tired rn to give isis's posts the thought i should

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Blood meaning as a hang or something else? I want to say something about this craving for blood in your bottom tier reads and why you think such but I think I'm missing context here.

Blood as in a flip for something to work with. I feel like I can maybe do some stuff now though.

I think her posting in the last few pages shows a very natural and logical though process (some examples are 617-624, 648, 652, 669, 672) that if it comes from scum, it's very well manufactured to look natural, but

i genuinely feel like her posting has become more and more organic over time.

I also don't think the vanity vote on you is something that comes from scum when things have sort of stalled and and she could probably get away with staying on my wagon until end of day (which if she is scum would be her best chance of staying alive). It's just a weird move that doesn't make sense for scum!Isis to make in this situation.

This is an interesting thing; I haven't really read Isis's recent posts closely yet (i intend to next) but the the part i bolded is something in a vacuum that I'm not sure should actually be town-indicative. Especially in this kind of game I feel like it could be scum who started out nonchalant and then realized they had to up their game. At least, I've definitely had scum games where I've felt like there was a fire lit under my ass and I needed to change the way I was playing when I was pressured.

Although not super meaningful because this is like reading a secondary text without reading the primary source.

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I don't really see any thought process that I don't think can be manufactured in Isis's posting. This is probably the most interesting post

idk how to explain it to you
If I can't point to a post implosion has made by the end of day 1 and say it's a townpost, implosion probably has a role PM. If I can't point to a post Datisi has made by the end of day 1 and say it's a townpost, he's probably scum.

Datisi probably has like, 2-3 townish posts I that didn't meet threshhold for specific remarks, PP has done the same, and by the curve I grade on PP is more likely to be actually town this game than Datisi.

I play all my games like this. The extent to which I acknowledge it varies. I would think everyone plays their games this way although maybe other people wait for an actual scumgame and do this storytelling paranoid "but for this person, what if this is like that time they seemed townie but for scum?" (my approach is a bit more flawed if it were applied to someone I have not seen actually roll scum, but I have been scum -with- Datisi once and felt like he made good posts)

but like, this seems like just a way Isis approaches games. I don't think it's an especially hard post for scum-her to make.

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I mean, if I knew my exact thought process behind this thought I would've explained it lol.

i feel like every once in a while paranoia starts creeping up on me about scipio

and then he goes ahead and drops a line like this and i'm like !!!
i feel like i felt this so many times as town
how does one not townread him for it

a part of me wants to say "this is a good example of datisi being clearly town" but i guess I have made posts like this as scum before.

i do strongly agree with it being a good scipio town indicator.

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I'm just really curious about how the isis wagon's buildup kind of feels like slogging through the swamp. Like it feels like there are as many people calling the wagon terrible as voting on it at any given time. I don't really put weight on that kind of broad-analysis thing in general but I really do wonder if we've had a real wagon on scum yet.

I also did just look at datisi's early game and i can't find the things that i thought were strongly town. I think 332 might have been one of them (although I think I thought he was town before then?) but I think that post is emblematic of the kind of interaction with the game that I was viewing as town. There's actually a lot from him that looks like it could be performative like 101 and 377. I would like to hear from skitter if she has specific reasons for voting him or if she's just shopping around.

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I do kind of just like Aaron's posting recently. 714 just strikes me as genuinely town. And the isis unvote, and the way he talked to datisi in his last post.

i'll try to actually be online when other people are at some point soon hopefully :\

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I don't really see any thought process that I don't think can be manufactured in Isis's posting. This is probably the most interesting post

idk how to explain it to you
If I can't point to a post implosion has made by the end of day 1 and say it's a townpost, implosion probably has a role PM. If I can't point to a post Datisi has made by the end of day 1 and say it's a townpost, he's probably scum.

Datisi probably has like, 2-3 townish posts I that didn't meet threshhold for specific remarks, PP has done the same, and by the curve I grade on PP is more likely to be actually town this game than Datisi.

I play all my games like this. The extent to which I acknowledge it varies. I would think everyone plays their games this way although maybe other people wait for an actual scumgame and do this storytelling paranoid "but for this person, what if this is like that time they seemed townie but for scum?" (my approach is a bit more flawed if it were applied to someone I have not seen actually roll scum, but I have been scum -with- Datisi once and felt like he made good posts)

but like, this seems like just a way Isis approaches games. I don't think it's an especially hard post for scum-her to make.

I 100% agree I could post this as town, jester, mafia, cult leader, or werewolf.
So like, what are you trying to accomplish with this post? How is this simultaneously my "most interesting post" and, not, it is clearly not, it is very obviously not.

I’m saying I don’t really see what Aaron finds town about your recent posting. Honestly I didn’t actually check if that was one of the posts he mentioned and I’m not going to right now bc I’m on mobile.

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dats i feel like i don't have such a good read on u and i kinda want to sort u

ok
what is it that you want / need from me here
and also why do you think naked voting is like, gonna help you here

(i am also specifically still interested in mena's reasons for that vote)

i don't know!!!! i feel like having some sort of dialogue with you would help, and was kinda hoping that by voting you you'd go: 'omg skitter why are you voting me' and then we could have a nice convo about idk something that would give me more to sort you with than i currently have

i feel like a lot of what you're doing is just kinda NAI? Or at least i don't see the obvtowniness that everyone is citing and like i feel like a lot of what you're doing can be said/posted by scum-you?

do you think you ought to be townread here as much as you have been?

i'm also not really sure i follow your 'evil vibes from isis wagon' -> aaron vote -> isis vote

or why you were scumreading aaron in the first place

~ skitter

This is the first post this game that’s made me say “ oh yeah, that’s what skitters town game looks like”.

Is there a reason that took so long? I know you’re also good as scum so I don’t really know what to make of it.

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I do kind of just like Aaron's posting recently. 714 just strikes me as genuinely town. And the isis unvote, and the way he talked to datisi in his last post.

i'll try to actually be online when other people are at some point soon hopefully :\

re: Aaron, I actually feel the opposite? Like, I kind of held off on responding to them for a bit just to get some distance on that first impression/avoid getting too tunnelly, but 733's a bad look imo. It just feels like more of the same, taking refuge in the gamestate being "sort of stalled" to--again--get out of actually having to opine on anyone. Like, there are some tonal things that are maybe nice in this most recent batch of posts, but a lot of it still boils down to "I'm not sure how to feel about this"--which would be a lot less egregious if there where any sense of urgency, which I don't get from Aaron at all. Part of me wants to like 565 for the pushback on you (don't think you ever answered this btw) but it's very much just echoing what I said, and in the context of 564-66 it's hard not to take it as buddying. I kind of want to like the back-and-forth with Dat, too, but like.... 604 is just stones/glass houses, etc. & 733 isn't even really an answer?
Would love for anyone to change my mind on this.

I can see a reading of 733 that's mediocre but I don't really see it as significantly scum-indicative.

To answer the post I never answered it comes down to being bold about the haiku thing. It's a kind of dynamic that I can see scum avoiding engaging in. It's a minor thing. I think someone else said something similar about it.

This is the first post this game that’s made me say “ oh yeah, that’s what skitters town game looks like”.

Is there a reason that took so long? I know you’re also good as scum so I don’t really know what to make of it.

uh idk beyond 'i was really busy last week and was only giving like a half a thought to this game'
not sure why that post in particular made you see town-me tho

~ skitter

Fair. I'll not answer why and see if you keep doing it; I don't actually know if it's actually a towntell for you but.

What is it from me this game that you've found scummy-but-not-in-a-way-that-you're-sure-actually-means-i'm-scum?

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and like i'm not sure that that all adds up to scum-implo but i keep going hmmmmmm??????? and like i don't have happy-feel-good-vibes because i don't super get how you're approaching this game really

I guess this is fair because I still don't really feel like I have a good foothold. I'm kind of finding that I've forgotten how to play almost? Like I just am having a harder time than I remember having forming reads that I feel good about. I don't know if that's actually a function of this game being kind of impregnable, I think it's probably a combination of the game and me not having played in like a year. I'm finding myself annoyingly swayed by things, like I feel like I can't find a scumread where there's not some reason to townread them. And it's not

really

for lack of trying at this point either.

The only people I even really feel good on at this point are penguin and scipio and maybe infinity. I feel like I'm historically bad at reading hydras and N_M is absent and that's like a quarter of the game that I don't really have any good avenue to read.

I need to engage directly with people more. I think my gut still says Datisi is town; the way he's interacting with the game right now, his general manner strikes me that way. The way he's talking about himself and his thought processes and his meta while still trying to push the game forward e.g. by voting me. I also think I still feel good about schiavetto, and in looking through his posts i see he pointed out 401 from ben which is, actually really really bad. For reasons schiavetto pointed out and also because the last line screams "I want to call people on my wagon scum but that would look scummy". It seems like a line that I can envision scum typing out through a thought process like that.

i swear to god i'm not saying this bc of sechyd saying ben is scum on this page

I need to look more closely at the things that made me unvote him.

Also regarding Isis my gut is starting to just say that she's town and I don't like it because there are ~too many~ such people and I feel like it's probably the case that I as a player am likely to scumread Not_Mafia by PoE in every game that I play with him.

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VOTE: ben dover
in the mean time, because i am blindly sheeping sechyd

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Spoiler:

Hi all.

VOTE: ben dover not really SRing him, but not townreading him either and I like the wagon composition

VOTE: bend over

VOTE: ben

NM's E-1

This is certainly not what I was looking to see when I came back.

What are the reason for all of these votes? Have I suddenly become consensus scum now?

tbh this now just feels like a dogpile with a wagon this quick. I can't say that scum is on this wagon but it feels way too smooth with these 3 consecutive votes here.

Hm, I thought I explained why I didn't accuse my wagon being scum but take 2:

A accusation like "my wagon has scum" usually is baseless and I'm not really certain that scum is on my wagon yet because I have yet to know why people jumped on my wagon which could be telling if there is scum or not. Also, if I am wrong then town will be looking in the completely wrong direction so at the very least I want to have some backing if I'm going to accuse my wagon of having scum.

So yeah, I'm not very focused on scum being on my wagon right now because I have 0 evidence for such a accusation, but I do want to know why people jumped on my wagon so quickly and why they want a speedy elimination on me.

So yeah, I'm not very focused on scum being on my wagon right now because I have 0 evidence for such a accusation, but I do want to know why people jumped on my wagon so quickly and why they want a speedy elimination on me.

if you are town though then figuring out if there's scum on your wagon should be important yeah?

Yeah, of course, but I haven't really found any proof of such.

This is interesting because I think it's not really how town think about being wagoned. At least, when I think about being frustratingly wagoned as town, there's one specific game that comes to mind, and my reaction was not to think along the lines of "is there scum on the wagon", it's to think along the lines of "who, if anyone, is the scum on the wagon", because, that's the actual useful thing to know.

The only thing in this time frame that he does to talk about specific people is to mention that "the last two votes" pinged him. But this way of framing things isn't how town that's trying to find and eliminate scum frame it, it's the way that scum who need to manufacture a narrative about their wagon frame it. Aaron asks him if it's important to figure out if there's scum on his wagon, and he says "yes, it's important but I don't have any evidence of it". I feel like the town answer here is either "no, and that's why I've been saying that that accusation is often baseless" or "yes, it's important but I'm not sure about players X Y and Z". The way he phrases this last post is as though he thinks there's something that he could find for proof that his wagon has scum on it other than indicting people on the wagon. The general "I want to know why people jumped on me" rather than being interested in and addressing specific people, and the way he's ignoring the early part of the wagon, etc.

Might be rambly.

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I think I'm letting other peoples' reads influence me too much in this game also bc I don't really trust my own reads enough. I actually can't figure out why I thought ben was town other than I think subconsciously sheeping skitter. I think what I was seeing in Datisi early was actually there, it's the way he's approaching the game that I think he still has in recent posting, he feels, dare i say it, relaxed.

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implo's sheep vote onto ben

hYdra feels that that 'one quote' I used was kinda light for the vote

but then I explained it wasn't really about accusing us of lurking/non-contributing alone, but the manner in how he seemed to be enabling skipio in potentially pushing us (he was the first to call us smt like non-contributing)

you get what i mean?

-seCret

i can't tell if you realize me calling it a sheep vote was a joke or not

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it's a vote on a player that i believe to be scummy

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Bridge
Isis
notsci

Infinity
Penguin
Schiavetto
Datisi

N_M

implo
sec/hyd
ben
Aaron

What do you make of 3/4 of your bottom reads being tied as the top wagons right now?

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a vote can be both; this was not.

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Other players have, but sechyd has not. My eyes have honestly slightly glazed over when I've tried to glean useful things from their posts.

[implosion]

Yesterday was long.

I don't especially feel compelled to jump off from the claim. If there's some other good wagon then it'd be fine to but the claim isn't convincing.

I'd like Hydra to explain why

exactly

he says it'd be "easily disproven if fake". That post feels like scum hastily trying to be one of the first people to give judgment on a claim and get credit for that but not actually thinking about what they're saying because I don't think that's how tracker claims play out in practice.

Menalque's reaction is +town in context I think.

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(Menalque because I think it's something scum will be loath to say to a degree, being the first person, and adamantly so, to say "let's just kill the PR claim anyway")

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first of all, satistics indicate to 0/1/2 "I" to be rolled, that means that if we have another tracker, it's a realistically 99% counterclaim

You said "easily disproved if fake", not "easily disproved if fake and there's a real tracker as well". The probability of 0 I letters given no prior info is 32%, not exactly trivially low. I could say more here on the statistics but won't for now, but suffice to say "99%" is a

very drastic overstatement

. This still seems, as I described, a hasty statement.

then, i think we can pretty much all agree that scum wouldn't claim tracker in a power stacked game,

Hard disagree. They could claim tracker to elicit a counter, they could claim it to live a few more days to use their own power role if they think they don't have longevity, they could claim it and try to make it to endgame as menalque described.

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i'd be willing to wagon sechyd if you want to. Though it would be betraying menalque's memory.

[implosion]

Why exactly, schiavetto?

[implosion]

how would you respond if i lied and said i haven't drawn scum in six years

Camn vs Pine was a fun trainwreck to watch though...

yknow i fully forgot that game and i am genuinely a little bit proud that i was elli's 3rd most likely scum >_>

my brain probably stopped forming memories about it as soon as elli made that post.

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also that doesn't count bc i didn't draw scum! i was handed scum! by choice! bad choice, but choice!

[implosion]

Only skimmed bc I have to do work but two things:

@Implosion if you're town please consider that you likely have too many town reads and you need to cut that down by a good amount if possible/not against your personal philosophy.

I actually don't at this point! I not-townread ben&N_M&Sechyd right now, so it's entirely possible and thus probable that all my townreads are correct.

Second and more importantly,

the equation for the probability of these numbers, which... i'm actually too dumb to actually make holy fuck, anyways, common sense tells me that it's fairly high, way higher than the odds of 3/4/5/6/7! "I" so anyone being a tracker would cc

Even the chance of getting 2 "I" is pretty low (2.25%) so maybe you're right, but the fact that no one has cc'd yet makes me trust the claim a tiny bit more.

Although being honest, tracker is probably one of the safer fakeclaims for scum in this setup.

This number is wrong. You calculated it by taking 0.15^2; this would be the probability that the *first* two letters chosen are I. The actual probability of getting exactly 2 I is (7 choose 2)(0.15^2)(0.85^5), around 21%.

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i think shirou has pocketed me much as bridgeburners pocketed penguin. that is to say that i am townreading him but probably shouldn't be, but am nonetheless

Implo is the math guy here so if I'm wrong correct me, but what would be a way to solve the Ben's claim would be for, if there is in the first place, a 1-shot Tracker to claim.

If a 1-shot Tracker claim, and there's no CC here to the Tracker claim itself, there's good chances that Ben slot is town.

I mean, there can't be a 1-shot tracker without a regular tracker. If there was a 1-shot tracker claim that we believed and no CC to the regular tracker claim then we'd lim the 1-shot tracker claim strictly before ben bc them being town would imply ben was town... but that's assuming that we actually want an actual tracker to cc if they exist (since there can be multiple trackers, among other reasons), etc.

I don't think there's really reason for a 1-shot tracker to claim unless we also do want to solicit counterclaims but we should only do that if we're like, definitely not eliminating ben otherwise because if we are then it'd be a waste. I don't really feel like this town is coordinated enough to really figure things like that out as a whole. I don't really think a counterclaim is necessary either way.

[implosion]

i'm inclined to say that useful posting at all right now is a little bit townish. The game is kind of volatile right now, I could imagine scum being scared to commit. I think infinity trying to realign things on me is town-indicative, though calling him town isn't exactly a hot take.

I actually like some of sechyd's recent posting, particularly 1184 particularly the first line therein particularly the part where he's addressing ben and the way that he addresses ben feels like a thing that I think scum often kind of avoid, the sort of genuine "hey could you please participate more :\" kind of line. Also the reassessing process I think though that's less so bc that could just be logical thinking.

[implosion]

also i just saw schiavetto's 1085.

"spent a solid chunk of time talking around the optics of the vote." => yes i did not like doing this and i wish i hadn't made the joke but what can you do.

The second paragraph, I'm not really sure what attention that was on the spot you're referring to that I'd be capitalizing on? I never really found them town but like was there really a lot of attention on their slot? there might have been but I didn't really notice it if so. But also

but to put it on skitters like that feels like it's just making it easier to detach himself from the vote if things go sotuh/recontextualize the push as needed depending on how things pan out.

This part is actually interesting because it's entirely possible that this is literally what is going on subconsciously in my head bc i kind of don't trust my reads (for a few reasons, chiefly rustiness and glut of townreads) but still feel the need to push them because, well, that's the game. So here we are.

I do think schiavetto's posting is still pretty town. I think him reacting to infinity calling for a new wagon on me in this way is pretty solidly not how scum react. They might say "sure" and jump on, or they might come up with some reason not to want to, but the whole tinfoil thing feels like town who has an actual internal thought process that they are actually using to inform how they're interacting with the game. I don't think it's made up.

[implosion]

hello petapan.

[implosion]

there are many things in this world that are shameful.

[implosion]

I'm quite low on energy to do much but etc.

I absolutely used to get butthurt about wrong scumreads on me but I think that part of me has died down a lot over the years, probably mostly from playing social deception games irl where you're actually playing with people you know and etc. It annoyed me in the past particularly if people didn't have any reason but at this point I like, understand the reasons generally and in this game they've generally been reasonable places to come from, they're just incorrect.

I haven't gotten much townvibe from S_S's posting (not mentioning all the weirdness early on) and I feel like in the past I've always found him very naturally town as town. So. Disinclined from dropping the wagon.

I also have noticed that my wagon is kind of strangely not gaining any traction. Which is also kind of weird bc I haven't been a paragon of innovation in the past day or two, I have been pretty lurky. I don't think there's necessarily a deep reason for that though. I think scum might just be scared of making big shifts in the potentially fragile gamestate or like, getting caught partnered with S_S if he is scum. If he is scum they're probably assuming he's not living to endgame.

p-edit: five posts i am not reading

[implosion]

implo what's your schiavetto read

Probably roughly top 5ish town at this point actually.

petapan is rude. i am glad i do not have to try to read him ever bc i am fully convinced scipio was town.

[implosion]

I'm coming around on Aaron being a scum candidate with him unvoting 3 days ago for the claim and never voting anyone else. Obviously having been there I understand not having any scumreads you feel good about but I think it's gone on a bit long, and like I said I think doing things/committing to things (I guess I said the former but probably moreso the latter) recently is a townish thing to do, and he's been not doing that.

Feels kind of like he's recently been talking about the claim/things anciliary to the claim to avoid really committing to any reads.

[implosion]

Right now I'm very roughly at...

petapan > Penguin ~ Datisi

Schiavetto > Isis ~ Infinity

Shirou ~ Bridgeburners

Sechyd

N_M, Aaron

S_S

Lots of potential volatility based on my mood in the Isis-Sechyd range. Aaron is at a "need to do work to re-evaluate" stage.

[implosion]

Not voting (5) - seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Petapan, Something_Smart, Shirou

do something.

thx.

sure VOTE: Implosion

really hate the S_S wagon rn so idk, i'd rather see where this goes

- hYdra

This feels like the worst vote on me so far. Feels very "I want to wagon but I don't want blame if things go wrong". I think SecHyd-town should have plenty of reason to vote me anyway (I'm in their PoE, they've not said anything positive about me recently the only possible exception being that skit's case didn't convince them, etc) so I feel like town-SecHyd shouldn't need to say "i'm voting this bc I don't like the other wagon". They should just like this one.

Might be griping.

[implosion]

Also a little weird that they needed to be prodded to do so, it should have made sense for them to join my wagon a while ago if that's what's up?

[implosion]

this all sounds generally cohesive with my worldview

pedit: @menalque

[implosion]

Hunting for SK behavior in 13 players when there is on average 0.5 of an SK is like hunting for exact scumteams based on associatives on day one in a 9p mini. Actually they're like, very close in prior probability. It's just not really worth thinking about, the prior probability that you're right is so low that the sort of burden you'd need to meet to actually have meaningful evidence is enormous from a Bayseian statistics standpoint.

[implosion]

If there's a vig they should act at least a little unpredictably for sure. That doesn't necessarily mean just not-shooting N_M if they want to. Scum bus driver if it exists is 1-shot, so they could just holster in which case shooting suboptimally would be worse.

[implosion]

I wouldn't say I'm hunting for SK behaviour in the first place? the point is more -> looking for scum behaviour -> isis making very weird moves -> is isis scum? -> discuss with skitt in pt -> okay, isis prob not scum bc what would she be trying to achieve -> isis continues to just have bizarre takes that don't relate to the game as far as I see it -> this doesn't seem like town behaviour? but also she's not scum? what's going on? -> remember there's a possible 3rd party role that fits this not!scum not!town behaviour pattern

-QB

Yeah it's not like, a problem or anything.

Basically in a future where we're at low player count and Isis is still alive and we need to hunt for an SK we can look back at this but right now it just doesn't affect my perception of anything.

If there's a vig they should act at least a little unpredictably for sure. That doesn't necessarily mean just not-shooting N_M if they want to. Scum bus driver if it exists is 1-shot, so they could just holster in which case shooting suboptimally would be worse.

what's suboptimal about a vig shooting a nully-scum slot or just their top SR?

-QB

It's suboptimal in the strict sense of the word if the theoretical vig, or our town as a whole, thinks N_M is the optimal shot.

Basically just saying, the best thing to do will always be a mixed strategy of some kind if we're worried about interference by a bus driver.

It's not the most important thing by any means.

[implosion]

Great. New topic:

Not voting (5) - seCret hYdra, AaronFrost, Petapan, Something_Smart, Shirou

do something.

thx.

[implosion]

[implosion]

Isis I assume you're being serious but i am still not 100% sure. i have no idea what you mean by "you would use your emotion to recall things as scum but not as town" or why that is the case or why it would "hurt your recall".

[implosion]

can we just take a moment to talk about how the previous page is one person claiming s_s is confirmed town and another person responding by saying he's confirmed scum and just like. take a moment or a breather or something

[implosion]

I'm fine with going for Aaron if it has the votes. Also petapan's 1712 is a very good post.

Unvote

VOTE: Aaron

[implosion]

How do you feel about aaron, penguin?

[implosion]

I'm skeptical that it's right to characterize the switch to AFF as sudden. Like yeah the wagon sprung pretty fast but my and s_s's wagons and the gamestate in general had been stalling for a while.

[implosion]

It's not like you're actually committing to a push on P_P, you discussed him a little and voted him. i just looked at your iso to double check that you didn't constantly talk about him and the first thing i saw is you literally said you're not committing to it when you voted him

[implosion]

I could frankly see peta's play around me as coming from scum. But I really think scipio's play deserves to be locktowned. There's 718 which Datisi explained and I think is a very strong reason to townread him, there's his early game between 16 and 81 (weakest of the bunch) and 149/155 that just read as not how a new player to the site would play as scum generally. I think most of it is all this in the context of him not being very experienced on the site.

And it's not like peta's play around me/aff only makes sense if he's scum. If he has the read he claims to have on me then it's like, reasonable enough play.

[implosion]

sorry peta :/

VOTE: peta
i'm not sure this is gonna, like, get traction here but i think this is a better use of my vote than not-voting aff

~ skitteR

Also this feels like, kind of vapid? Do you think there's any chance whatsoever that the vote gets traction right now when Aaron is sitting at e-2 and the only reason he's not e-1 i think is because you don't want a lulhammer and i feel like general sentiment toward the slot has been that it's town. I mean I get using your vote is using your vote but it seems like a vanity vote dressed up as not a complete vanity vote.

[implosion]

i am ABSOLUTELY trying to get the focus back on you/implosion
i very much am aiming to hit scum, and i think that flipping in the 2 of you yields the highest % of achieving that today

This feels very... equivocate-y. Your explanation in 1918 was all about getting information, not about us being the most likely scum. And like, 1918 is really terrible logic. But beyond that the relevant thing here is it feels like you're trying to paint this picture where both me and S_S eventually being flipped is inevitable because of the info we'd get and

Like. there was a huge isis wagon? and a big-ass aaron wagon right now? what happened to those???? why is the information from those on a different level from the information from mine and S_S's? Is it just some excuse to claim that the people your heads scumread are the people that should die anyway?

I can't tell if this is just some kind of sechyd thinking themselves into a hole or if it's scum manufacturing logic to sound like they have a coherent logic. Or if there's just some step to the logic I'm missing.

[implosion]

the competing wagons near eod right now are me and aaron...

[implosion]

like, sure. but i could make an equally valid argument that if we go on aaron then we have not only the usefulness of looking at how his wagon sprang up out of nowhere, but also the early wagon on him and how it competed with the isis wagon, if he flips town.

It just feels fully arbitrary.

[implosion]

Why not isis? She improved a lot over the day. It was a good early wagon.
Why not aaron? Everyone can push there if they like. I don't see it.

I prefer sticking to the slots my other head and I are *actually* scumreading

-seCret

so the "information" thing is fully just a back-justification then?

[implosion]

the competing wagons near eod right now are me and aaron...

because attention suddenly completely shifted away from SS for ?? reasons

i don't like that

-seCret

have you heard of stalling

[implosion]

"suddenly"

the wagon was stalled for what felt like a fucking week.

[implosion]

i also hate the line of argument s_s is making right now >_>

[implosion]

i'm just trying to dig into where this information argument is coming from because 1916/1918 to me implied that it was like, a first-class reason for you to vote for one of me/s_s. Like, the fact that we'd get a lot of information was part of what was motivating you to push one of us. And I'm trying to dig into that because your argument about why our wagons in particular would give a lot of information is completely arbitrary. You're now saying that the motivation is based on you pushing scumreads? is it a mix of both, or is your motivation just coming from you looking for reasons to push the people you already scumread?

[implosion]

in my opinion,

objectively the best thi

alright let's just, go back to my homework then

[implosion]

oh yeah i came here bc i was waiting for a script to run. sad.

I actually am starting to come around that S_S could be town but I don't really feel like thinking about it too hard right now.

[implosion]

i'm probably reading too much into 1918 to be fair.

[implosion]

here's a question for you

why would scum!me be unhappy with an aaron wagon at this point, enough so to justify taking so much heat just to get attention back onto you?
Taking out a scum!me +scum!aaron team, I can just see that wagon go EoD compromise and then get back to the 2 of you tomorrow for a cage deathmatch.

This is me genuinely scumreading SS slot, wanting a flip there with a compromise on implo because my other head is telling me so.

-seCret

I mean, this is kind of a silly question? For the same reason that anyone as scum would ever want to fabricate a read. To make it look like you have genuine reads.

I could elaborate but like, what?

[implosion]

did you manually edit that gif
p-edit: not that gif, the bear gif

[implosion]

current_year_post

[implosion]

i'm frankly very bored with this game right now and need some reason to care until we have a flip. i know i'm one of the wagons but my god i just want to know something.

current mood is "why don't we just have seven consecutive posts by seven different people that vote N_M, really, what's the worst that could happen"

[implosion]

I know I personally would have a lot of trouble as scum doing the kind of thing Pooky is doing here of being this hyper and aggressive out of the gate after replacing in to the lead wagon.

[implosion]

then why dont you vote NM

because i need stakeholders to make sure it's seven consecutive posts

[implosion]

it just makes it hard to get an accurate read because I don't really have access to the kind of thought processes as scum that go into doing that kind of thing.

[implosion]

another current mood is eh, sechyd is probably actually just scum.

[implosion]

to elaborate:

Scip has 2 finished games on site

1 where he is town and eliminated

another where he is mafia and wins as the sole survivor.

I would think someone actually looking up scip meta would be reading both isos and comparing them to scip iso this game - rather he just says scip is inexperienced and unlikely to be able to make such plays as mafia - which is silly considering the only completed game scip has on site as mafia he won as sole survivor at the end - implying he does have the chops to go the distance.

This is probably fair from a logic standpoint - my thought process probably went "Scipio's play kind of looks like noobtown -> oh look he only has like two completed games -> guess he's noobtown." Him winning as sole scum one game does potentially mitigate that to some degree but I'd need to actually do work to figure that out which I'm not gonna do right now at least.

I also was annoyed by someone calling someone else townish for being new when they were significantly less new than scipio, or something like that.

[implosion]

i think that's more lazy/thorough indicative than town/scum indicative. I usually look at games from the perspective of trying to find town primarily, looking for reasons to townread people and then auditing myself later. Scipio to me felt like the kind of read of someone who is very obviously noob town in the kind of way where i don't really understand why people were suspicious that I've seen in other games and I kind of stopped really thinking about him deeply at that point; he just made the most sense as that. The only time I looked at his topic list was when I was comparing him to i think ben in their relative experience and I didn't really feel the need to look more deeply than that to make the comparison, and that's where I got that he doesn't have many games from.

Have you examined the game where he played as scum?

[implosion]

i'm usually pretty fast to townbin people early on, just in practice. We haven't played together and I can definitely see why that kind of laziness could be scum indicative for people that aren't me or in general but it simply isn't for me, I think (or it is but happens to be wrong in this case, possibly).

Did you skim the ISO from the scum!game after I asked, or before I made 2146?

[implosion]

[implosion]

hi i have been busy mostly today and i have to teach now but if the thread is still not locked in an hour i can possibly contribute to the twilight zone

[implosion]

so is this like the first game in recorded history where N_M is neither the person limmed d1 nor on the wagon

[implosion]

i could describe why i think sechyd is scummy but a lot of it is just root distrust of hydras biasing me toward it + a combination of some mildly townish things and some mildly scummy things. i guess also just the general way they've interacted with the gamestate sometimes i'll elaborate tomorrow if anyone cares

anyway to make the post penguin-compliant...

idk why the gif isn't playing but it is legally a gif

[implosion]

i probably should have spoilered that that is massive

[implosion]

i don't want to spam the game enough for this to happen but i really was hoping penguin would stop posting faster than me so i could catch up to his post count enough to quote posts 1068-1070 in reverse order at some point

[implosion]

i don't want to spam the game enough for this to happen but i really was hoping penguin would stop posting faster than me so i could catch up to his post count enough to quote posts 1068-1070 in reverse order at some point

You’ll have to nk me to stand a chance

Or I could just busdrive you with N_M and let the vig sort you out as they righteously should anyway.

[implosion]

[implosion]

Pretty sick.

I agree S_S is probably town. At least I don't feel the need to push him anymore and he can be dealt with later if needed, which probably won't be the case.

This together with Shirou flipping scum put yesterday into an interesting light; fmpov it's pretty likely all the major wagons throughout the entire day were on town between me, aaron, ben and probably isis. I think I might want to put Penguin in the PoE. He's been degrading for me slowly for a while but I didn't really want to say it yesterday, but this flip + aaron being town means I need to move something . His vote park on me while mostly staunchly refusing to give original opinions on anyone in the context of all of the wagons yesterday being on town is yuck. A cursory glance of Shirou's ISO searching his name also has a couple of things that make sense as s->s but that might be confbias goggles.

[implosion]

I also agree that looks more like an SK shot than a vig shot. There are so many shots that I can imagine a vig taking over Shirou in that game state unless like, a vig had a really good read. I guess it's not worth speculating on too much in case there is a vig so they can stay hidden. It's probably worth actually taking note of anything looking SK-ish with one scum down and a likely SK shot.

[implosion]

I still really don't think peta is scum. I still don't think schiavetto is scum. I'm feeling town on bridgeburners atm but would listen to arguments. I'll need to look more closely at the shirou/sechyd stuff but if people who mentioned it want to point out specifically what they think makes sechyd strong town i'd appreciate it.

[implosion]

i have never understood people who claim to be able to read n_m in any meaningful way.

[implosion]

unless it's something spicy like some shirou post where they spewed him as town.

[implosion]

Stupidly I think 2441 is actually a decently good reason to townread sechyd on its own.

I don't agree with infinity that sechyd is likely scum at this point (I think they definitely could still be SK but I disagree that there's any reason to go out of our way to SK hunt today), I think that post Infinity linked looks... really quite town for ico. But I'm not sure what Infinity's scum-motivation for doing this push would be and why Datisi is snap voting him here? There's basically a chorus calling sechyd town and I'm not sure why scum-infinity would go against that or at least I'm not sure why Datisi immediately thinks it's worth a vote.

VOTE: Penguin

[implosion]

The push also made me want to TR shirou, which could've been (part of) the intended effect

This seems... almost conspiratorial.

[implosion]

no one cares that there was no scum kill last night?

Kind of a weird conclusion to draw with any confidence.

The implication here is that we should be talking about it more. What do you want to say about it?

it was a question...hence the ?

you may add a "does" at the start if you would like.

If the collective answer is "no, no one does" then what do you get out of that answer? Or like, what do you get out of asking this question regardless of the answer? Isn't it natural for town in the beginning of a day like this to be much more interested in having a scum flip to work with than wondering why there's no scum kill?

[read: these are questions to the masses more so than penguin]

[implosion]

it is.

[implosion]

What are your thoughts on me currently, infinity?

[implosion]

{Best Bird}

{Not_Mafia, Schiavetto, }

{Bridgeburners, Datisi}

{Something_Smart}

{Petapan, seCret hYdra}

{Isis, Infinity 324}

{Implosion}

{}

I don't understand what you have against names that start with I.

[implosion]

The a priori odds of an SK are exactly 50-50.

[implosion]

The odds of no vig is .9^7*0.5, 23%

A priori odds of no vig are (0.9 ^ 7) + (0.9 ^ 6 * 0.5) or about 75%. So actually even if we don't read in to who was shot at all and just go under the assumption that we know there's either a vig or an sk, it's probably an sk.

Probability of SK but no vig would be roughly 38%; probability of a vig but no SK would be roughly 12%; ergo from a Bayesian perspective, if we assume that there is either a vig or an SK but not both, the probability that there's an SK is about 75% (about 38 / (38 + 12)).

[implosion]

Kind of low on energy to commit to this game rn.

If I wind up getting flash-rest-of-the-wagon'd then just, like, my dying will is that you at least reconsider penguin. And also i still have no idea why people are taking N_M out of their PoE. I feel pretty good about this game even if i'm ME'd here with shirou being dead. Except for the other wagon today being on bridge. Still don't think bridge flips scum in this game. at least, like, quite rarely.

[implosion]

Lack of energy for game is for RL reasons. Today was long (and not over yet) but I have some time and focus now and might have some more later.

To answer Penguin asking why he's scum: i don't even really feel particularly good about saying that he is. I think he hasn't demonstrated that he's town nearly as much as most of the player list. I think his interactions with Shirou are mediocre and his push on me is in contrast with Infinity's, which I agree with bridgeburners is townish because it seems like he has an actual internal evaluation of the game going on. I think Penguin's vote makes perfect sense as him parking the vote and never really feeling the need to do much else; he's been fairly slow to give opinions on people, especially original opinions. He's done almost nothing to actually push me. His opening to today is mediocre. Just like, read through just the second page (67 posts) of his ISO. Almost all of it is responding to other people, there's no original insight or analysis or opinions with the nearly sole exception of 2484 which is, like, a reads list that I have a lot of trouble believing is coming from a genuine inspection of the game. I find it really difficult to believe that one would list N_M as literally top town in this game in particular. There are so many reasons to townread so many other people, unless he has some secret tell on N_M or something. It feels pointless to try to peer into any of this.

The lack of open thought process is iirc par for the course for him but the sheer lack of like, doing anything interesting on his own is bad.

[implosion]

I don't think there's any reason to think about S_S for the forseeable future after the blocked claim. I also have sort of soured on his play yesterday being bad (I still don't really like ben's play but :shrug:)

[implosion]

I could think about Isis more. On reading her posts last page I actually was thinking yeah, these are at least somewhat convincing points toward bridge-scum but as I was doing that I still didn't really feel like I wanted to conclude that bridge was scum and then the response to those points does disarm them mostly. Or maybe the sort of narrative that Isis is painting kind of makes sense but the other narrative also makes sense. Which I guess is indicative of skitter being good at playing scum, but meh. I haven't looked at what the menalque delayed omgus thing is yet.

Bridge's voting patterns to me feel almost absurd as scum. I don't really see motivation for scum to vote peta then switch to schiavetto all while refusing to join the wagon on me today. I feel like scum-bridge has to build some kind of actually tenable (in the sense that enough people would jump on board) counternarrative so she can look good and push it after I flip town. I don't see why that's Schiavetto. Her willingness to unvote peta to keep sorting him, her willingness to unvote schiavetto so shortly after voting him. I just don't really see what she gets out of it as scum in the sense that I think scum would see it as more likely to draw ire than to draw the kind of comment I'm making right now.

[implosion]

Oh the thing I wanted to say was I strongly agree Isis's play has been very

weird

this game and I've been thinking thus far at least since the weirdness around the dissolution of her wagon yesterday that that weirdness was more townish than scummish but it's worth more in-depth looking.

[implosion]

I just look at Gypyx's posts on the last page and they're all just so lackluster and I really wish I could feel good about that slot being scum :\. I kind of hate specifically-SK hunting as a matter of principal just because I don't think my reads are on average sufficiently good enough for it to be worth it unless SK is the only scum alive and I just do not see the "I thought I would be considered confirmed town" comments + the interactions with Shirou coming from the slot as scum.

[implosion]

Skitter, why do you think notscience's schiavetto vote is +town for schiavetto?

I'm looking at his slot and he hasn't done anything in a long time and I remember finding some of his early posts very +town but it's been long enough that that read needs some reason to be renewed.

[implosion]

it feels like every person in the game is at this point townreading penguin with no discernible reason. infinity is, schiavetto is, skitter just listed like 8 other people that are anti-partnered with shirou and has said nothing about penguin in at least the better part of a week. It's frustrating.

[implosion]

pooky was very probably wrong about like everything

[implosion]

oh nice pooky's reason for NM being town was also contingent on me being scum. lovely.

[implosion]

oh nice pooky's reason for NM being town was also contingent on me being scum. lovely.

It wasn’t though? N_M as scum could have easily gotten away with hammering pooky via established lolhammer meta, so the fact that he didn’t is ++town especially given he’s been playing somewhat more seriously recently.

The wagons were on aaron (town), me (town), S_S (probably town)

If he's "playing more seriously" then that's all the more reason to think he wouldn't lolhammer? If he can be pretty damn sure town is dying that day without lolhammering... why would he want to get away with lolhammering pooky

at the very least it relies on either me or S_S being scum...

[implosion]

And even then it's only an argument that N_M is not groupscum with me or S_S.

[implosion]

2714 feels like townpp

why.

[implosion]

skitter do you have a modern penguin opinion

[implosion]

[quote="In post 2755, Bridgeburners]VOTE: isis[/quote]

Un-fixed broken quote tags after clarification - SirCakez

[implosion]

oops haha i messed up the quote tag i guess i'm voting isis now sorry isis

[implosion]

VOTE: isis

Fixed broken quote tags - SirCakez

I'm sorry sircakez this was supposed to be a joke where I was actually voting isis and intentionally messed up the quote tags >_>

[implosion]

and I voted isis bc clearly no one is interested in penguin and it was the least bad non-vanity vote available.

[implosion]

I agree gypyx's posting is pretty bad but I don't feel like it's enough to outweigh the associative. I don't see it as as bad as skitter and peta both describe it. Though I think it is nice that he's managed to bring the two of them together purely aesthetically. That said, I honestly find it difficult to imagine a scumtell that I would consider to outweigh that associative on balance. I wouldn't shed a tear if sechyd died today but I'm fairly sure better flips exist, even if I still don't know who they are that I can actually accrue votes on.

[implosion]

Also,

Actual Content Forthcoming

:\

[implosion]

A part of me actually really doesn't like skitter's take on sechyd; it's logically fine but I also felt Infinity's comment on opening the limpool and her response feels indignant in kind of a bad way. She has an amount of rhetorical sway and there are a lot of people like me and Penguin who have listed sechyd as some sort of ambiguous read (at least I described myself as wanting to vote him but not being able to or something like that, penguin listed them somewhere pretty low on his reads list, maybe others) to the point where she as scum could definitely feel like she'd be able to lead on them. Specifically I don't like the indignation in this post:

Because your SRs (peta and now sechyd) are on slots that I think would seem pushable to scum but aren't being scumread by other people

I think that's at least at little +scum

i mean ... don't you think i would push people who would, like, have a chance of getting flipped? what's the point of pushing the slot that literally everyone says isn't partnered with the flipped scum

and, like, do you think his posting this evening was good?

i'm actually gonna vote him, it's literally that bad VOTE: sechyd

Like. If you're

town

then what's the point of pushing the slot that "literally everyone says isn't partnered with the flipped scum"? Just because?

[implosion]

Kind of low on energy to commit to this game rn.

If I wind up getting flash-rest-of-the-wagon'd then just, like, my dying will is that you at least reconsider penguin. And also i still have no idea why people are taking N_M out of their PoE. I feel pretty good about this game even if i'm ME'd here with shirou being dead. Except for the other wagon today being on bridge. Still don't think bridge flips scum in this game. at least, like, quite rarely.

Yeah implo is scum.

One of the reasons I wanted to vote implo is I wanted to see if he would have his energy sapped from scum being in a bad spot really early; isis in ss3 reminded me of this. This is exactly that.

Also I have recent firsthand experience

You mean like, firsthand experience of you having energy sapped?

To be clear, as I said, the energy sapping thing was strictly from life stuff and I am now feeling a lot better about this game (or at least, am actually enjoying it again atm even if I don't feel confident about reads).

I really don't see why people are critical of Ico's spate of posting. I think it shows an earnestness that scum in a bad spot who is drained from having dealt with RL stuff and who then had to deal with his hydra partner being piled on would have trouble showing. I don't see why 2909 is actively bad, it seems neutral to me. The kind of things that peta and skitter are pointing out e.g. 2895 are just not alignment indicative to me. Like, the fact that he's talking about peta + skitter as scum does show that he's either missing pieces of game state or not explaining some far-out theory but I don't see why missing a piece of game state like that would be scum-indicative. I don't think scum is more likely to just like, have missed the entire first half of today so far, and I don't see why scum-ico posits that scum pairing if he read the beginning of the day. It's not like scum would forget how much the two were at each others' throats. It would have to be just purely sloppy. I agree it's not something that makes a ton of sense from town; it's also not something that makes a ton of sense from scum.

I also like some individual posts in the spate, like 2879, 2889 (i am biased but etc), and the fact that he's describing things from me that he sees as townish but still isn't putting me in his town pile.

I also don't understand why skitter is saying she needs help on ico after she was already scumreading him and seemingly he posted... more scummy stuff, as she saw it? Like I'm sure she will have some reason for it but it really feels like something she could do as scum to like, inject some nuance into the read/interface with a townie/etc. Idk. A couple people already commented on it being weird and I can't quite put together why I don't like it because it is probably something that town skitter can do too.

[implosion]

Datisi, do you have anyone that you're leaning scum on right now or are you still in the sort of apathetic state you described earlier or?

[implosion]

Warning that this post is very rambly.

It's hard for me to make a read list now bc my opinions are more in flux than they were on d1, but something like.

Spoiler:

Infinity, Something_Smart (town that I feel good about calling town)

petapan (I think on his play alone he'd be in my PoE at this point; still think Scipio displayed fairly strong town; possibly at the point where I should re-evaluate and actually the more that I think about it I am actually going to look into him some shortly so maybe this will change in like two posts)

Secret Hydra including associatives (basically, where I place them if hunting specifically for groupscum, or maybe just above peta but some of the recent points do have some merit and I didn't like their d1 play though it's not fresh in my head)

Datisi, Schiavetto (both of these need asterisks; Datisi because it's mostly a tonal read but one that I still feel kind of strongly about even with the apathy stuff but if someone else has superseding meta then *shrug*, Schiavetto because this is where my read of him would be like a week ago, around when he stopped posting anything nontrivial)

Bridgeburners (falling somewhat as of late), Isis (I have a hard time really explaining the things from her that seemed townie earlier in a way that is satisfying enough for me to still believe them)

Not_Mafia (probably not scum with penguin, I strongly do not buy any of the reasons I've heard for calling him town), Secret Hydra not including associatives (though I have a lot of trouble placing them here or higher and the recent sort of consensus on them makes me feel more iffy on them being scum. )

Penguin

The reason I spoiler this is because just the act of writing this out has made me realize there are a lot of things I need to do with some immediacy; mostly taking a closer look at peta and Isis.

In a world where it's 2 scum + SK I certainly could be right about everything that I currently feel in my heart of hearts (namely everyone but N_M and Penguin being town). I still do not feel good about this because, well, odds are still 3 scum and I don't buy the vague game-vibes that say it's actually 2, and it's not like I feel good about those two being scum. Also everyone disagreeing on penguin means I'm probably wrong. But I still think his play, more and more recently, is disparate from how I remember his town game being. I cannot for the life of me find the post that I swear skitter made about his play being more pot-shotty as one alignment but it feels very pot-shotty in a scummy way lately, in the sense that he's giving one random inkling of something at a time. The weird comment about S_S being either high confidence town or high confidence scum, randomly joining the sechyd wagon apparently literally because he just wasn't counting votes, idk.

Also I'm kind of just realizing that it was a mistake to join a possibly-multifaction game. but well I guess it's too late for that.

[implosion]

Oh yeah I forgot peta's early day today was also townish.

[implosion]

In a way the fact that peta hasn't actually reckoned with his read on me should be troubling? I guess he's not really being shy about it since he did mention it two days ago explicitly and if he's town it kind of makes sense that he's had higher priority stuff to care about all day with bridge and sechyd. It is kind of a believable thing as scum if I try to think of how petapan-scum would try to interact with me in the context of this game, in that world I'm probably a weird unknown since I haven't played in forever and so it might make sense for him to just not want to deal with calling me either way. Although it'd be just as easy for him to just call me town in his crusade against all of the reasons people have scumread me...... which is a weird thing to say on its own but like it's basically what he's done

[implosion]

I also have so many conflicting thoughts on skitter right now. Her voting patterns I said earlier seem absurd as scum and I kind of want to do a somewhat-effortful meta of her to see how she does this kind of wild vote hopping. I generally think vote hopping in a carefree way is usually town indicative and I still think in isolation her votes on peta and I think it was Datisi are town-indicative. The sechyd vote just gives me pause because at some point it feels like leaning into it. I think thinking about this more I'm probably wrong about that and she is just town.

[implosion]

less sure that you don't know how to read me or less sure that you don't want to yeet me day 1 without good reason

[implosion]

SKs kick ass, tbh. sad to see they have fallen out of favor in the time i was away

also i am probably literally responsible for this to a large degree

[implosion]

i think you overestimate how good i am at scum

[implosion]

at least if that is how you feel reading my posts

or at least, i don't think i'm especially good at scum. I think I've done things in this game that I'd have a hard time replicating as scum.

[implosion]

I think I'd have a hard time faking the trajectory I've had this game. Historically I think I've tended to be bad at believably changing reads over the course of time. I guess I might be wrong about that since it's been so long since i've played and self-meta is somewhat wack but. I guess I have less of an idea of exactly what I'd have a hard time faking now actually.

[implosion]

I got fully absorbed by other things today. Don't really have awakeness to read stuff closely right now bc falling asleep soon. Will do so in the morning. I did see the wagon on me built and then ebbed; we should not be in a rush to end the day if for no other reason than Schiavetto should be forced to commit to any opinion on literally anyone other than me. I don't care if people still think he's probably town, he shouldn't be allowed to coast.

If the day does come down to me or sechyd or bridge I probably prefer sechyd but not by a very wide margin.

[implosion]

There is concern about implo being unwilling to engage with us (by which I mean skitt)

I... have though? I haven't like, gone back and forth much with her but I've engaged with her and taken her opinions into consideration. I haven't like, followed up on the things that I'd said were pinging me from her but like I said I ultimately came to the conclusion that they weren't really enough to think you're scum.

Regarding the flash wagon swap away form me: 1, I can sort of see how Penguin comes off somewhat town from that. 2, however, if the logic is "flash wagon swap away from implosion -> scum protecting scum", then remember that there can be at most two aligned players alive right now. If something like this is happening with scum at fault, it's possible that scum see an opportunity to elim bridge, who they see as a bigger threat than me/more opportunistic of a target. That said I don't think something like that has to be happening for the swap to make sense. (and, well, if votes stagnate here I'm eventually going to vote bridge, obviously... but like I said I'm in no rush)

And *also* with all that said I think Isis and Infinity both come off quite a bit town here. I don't think either of them would make this jump in the individual ways that they are as scum from one town wagon to either another town wagon or a scum wagon. Obviously that's fmpov but it seems like the classic "scum wouldn't do this because it would make them stick out more than they'd get from it".

[implosion]

There is concern about implo being unwilling to engage with us (by which I mean skitt)

I... have though? I haven't like, gone back and forth much with her but I've engaged with her and taken her opinions into consideration. I haven't like, followed up on the things that I'd said were pinging me from her but like I said I ultimately came to the conclusion that they weren't really enough to think you're scum.

Regarding the flash wagon swap away form me: 1, I can sort of see how Penguin comes off somewhat town from that. 2, however, if the logic is "flash wagon swap away from implosion -> scum protecting scum", then remember that there can be at most two aligned players alive right now. If something like this is happening with scum at fault, it's possible that scum see an opportunity to elim bridge, who they see as a bigger threat than me/more opportunistic of a target. That said I don't think something like that has to be happening for the swap to make sense. (and, well, if votes stagnate here I'm eventually going to vote bridge, obviously... but like I said I'm in no rush)

And *also* with all that said I think Isis and Infinity both come off quite a bit town here. I don't think either of them would make this jump in the individual ways that they are as scum from one town wagon to either another town wagon or a scum wagon. Obviously that's fmpov but it seems like the classic "scum wouldn't do this because it would make them stick out more than they'd get from it".

[implosion]

whoops.

[implosion]

consider this intent ig?

as in, you want me to claim?

Why should I claim when N_M has said he prefers bridge to me?

[implosion]

i see; i assumed you were being more existential

[implosion]

Unvote

As a show of good faith to Isis, whomst I am trying to stay in the good graces of so as to continue surviving in this game

[implosion]

Yes, and it's a campaign I've been running all game.

[implosion]

The year is 2385. The month, perhaps July. The game is long over. It turned out that via a mod error, there were actually two serial killers, five mafia, and a faction of three third party pseudojesters that could only win if they all received the same number of votes each day. Only three players, three pour souls, were given town role PMs, those being Aaron "fucking" frost, implo "why did i join an sk game" sion, and Schiavetto.

A scant farrago of words appear on the screen, posted at nine in the afternoon, by one of those players:

"implo still scum. Night 3 Roses is pretty obvtown; more to come."

[implosion]

osion is dead. I am only impl.

[implosion]

the proper shortening of my name is and has always eternally been impl.

[implosion]

VOTE: Schiavetto
top wagons solidarity

[implosion]

Code: Select all

[post]2570[/post]

[implosion]

personally i think all mods should have the players acknowledge the mafia have daytalk when confirming their roles

I don't know whether or not this was a thing before I started implementing it, but hectic always does it now and I feel like I've seen another mod do it

you were supposed to vote schiavetto in this post; why didn't you?

[implosion]

we need to push the wagon through before

the fun police

skitter gets back

[implosion]

Thing that is actually not that hard: replacing into a game, finding out that you're scum, absolutely strutting as town for a bit, then fading into the woodwork.

Thing that is much harder: continuing to display town as a gamestate progresses.

I don't care if Schiavetto always lurks in his games; I think the pattern of do stuff that is considered very towny -> lurk -> lurk -> lurk with like one opinion -> lurk -> huge post is scummy in and of itself, and I also agree with mena that the way that post is all about skitt without Schiavetto acknowledging me at all or acknowledging that my wagon has become less viable than BB's is not town. Town-Schiavetto has no reason to flip a switch in his brain that says "implosion is scum, and there is never any reason to vote anyone else"; the first part maybe, but he should at least show some interest in voting BB. He's just trying to make the gamestate more viscous/harder to make progress in for anyone by doing what he's doing.

[implosion]

what the heck why did i think schiavetto replaced in.

w/e point still stands.

[implosion]

very rude.

[implosion]

It's literally a thought process that I'm copying from having been scum before. I can't name a specific game but I've literally done that before.

I can't tell if you're referring to the beginning or end of that arrow chain with checking to see if the response to posting is positive.

[implosion]

also i have no idea what you mean by a perspective slip here.

[implosion]

Because "post stuff that is generally considered town" is not a behavior, posting is a behavior and other people townreading it is separate.

To be clear: what I'm describing here is not literally "post stuff and by sheer power of will have everyone call you town for it". And I don't understand how that isn't obvious? What I'm describing is "do your best to post stuff that is town, be successful, and then (as infinity describes) no longer have reason to make as much effort"

[implosion]

Its less slippy if impl is positing schi checked to see that the response to the posting was positive, and then chose to stop posting -because it was positive- but that doesn't make a lot of sense and I've never heard of it so id be giving different demerits for forcing the logic on this wagon too hard.

It's also not "choosing to stop posting". As scum, sometimes you don't like playing the game as much. You need a reason to do things. When you're successful early on, a lot of that reason fades away. You get into a pattern where you're just posting to keep up, you're noting some things you could comment on but can't really motivate yourself to because (probably) you enjoy town more and you can't really motivate yourself to fake analysis as easily as you can motivate yourself to give real analysis. Eventually you need to do something, and it's a lot easier to break back into the game with a big wall of things-you-would-have-commented-on-if-you-were-town than it is to break back into the game by having real, meaningful interactions with other active players.

And then you fade back into the woodwork, because you still don't really have much motivation. Which, I mean I guess Schiavetto could continue posting today (and maybe he will now that I'm calling this out! (p-edit: turns out i'm wrong here!)) but I don't think he will.

Doubly so if your motivation is killed by, oh i don't know, your scumbuddy who no one was really calling out dying overnight.

[implosion]

While we're here, I think Implo's been preparing to hop on me for a while now. On first skim I was honestly ready to shrug off 2849 (bc an afk slot voting you is annoying town or scum, and to have them gone for longer than projected probably doesn't feel too great either!) but in his follow-up later on, the "commit to an opinion" (nevermind the fact that i had been v clear about which slots i was solid on and which three slots i was taking time to sort, this is very much taking the accusation i made against imp D1 and just volleying it back) and "coast" comment both read as attempts to mischaracterize my slot & pull me back into LHF territory. 3129 is more of the same.

it's almost like if you're scum then almost all of the other slots are town, and it would explain why i keep thinking that all of them are towntelling when you've been afk!

[implosion]

"not making an effort" is genuinely just rage-inducing of a thing for you to lob at me

[implosion]

Glad I got a chance to play with you, peta.