TM 2021 Large Normal 2: Wikipedia Integer Facts (Over)

[Bell]

I'm not really a new player in the sense that I used to play here around 2016? and was gone for awhile for school and came back with the covid stuff. I went by Remembrance. This is my new main account.
My experience with Mastina is 4 games and she was been wrong on all of her reads and pushes day 1 and in three of those games she got her way and every time I regretted it.
and I also regretted the one time I scum read her because she was different (having trouble coming up with reads) and I asked a sort of day vig to clear them. Then they just died that night after being cleared. opps.

Anyway, I'm not unfamiliar with her. I don't want her anywhere near elo RN though. I need to reeval Ythan and Hopkirk.

[Winter Flakes]

when scum is mastina like a powerwolfy kind of style?

[Winter Flakes]

jesus that was a bad sentence lmao

when mastina is scum*

[Winter Flakes]

because given the confidence lld had on scum!mastina and these reads and the hard defense of herc which kinda looks like a chainsaw now i think voting there is a good play

[Winter Flakes]

VOTE: mastina

[mastina]

Vote Count 2.10 (FINAL)

Luca Blight

(8): Winter Flakes, OkaPoka,

Titus

,

Almost50

, Bell,

Cephrir

Almost50

(2): AGar, Ythan

OkaPoka

(1): Hopkirk

Titus

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting

(2): jjh927, Xtoxm

Vote Count 1.5

hercule

(7): Ythan, OkaPoka, the worst/Bell,

Cephrir

Lady Lambdadelta

(4):

hercule

, Hopkirk, innocentvillager

the worst/Bell

(2): jjh927, Winter Flakes

DrippingGoofball

(1): Xtoxm

Not Voting

(2):

Titus

, AGar

(Removed truly alignment-known players; colored green players I am treating as conftown.)

So both wagons at their peak had a lot of the same names on them, with Oka and Bell on both iterations of the wagon with the main difference being Ythan on the first and Winter Flakes on the second.

There's four possible worlds:
Scum stayed off of both iterations of the wagon (3 scum in {Hopkirk, innocentvillager, jjh, Xtoxm, AGar});
One scum was on both iterations of the wagon, but a different one; one scum bussed both (Ythan, Winterflakes as scum, with the third as one of Oka/Bell);
One scum was on both iterations of the wagon, but a different one; the last scum was off (1 scum in {Hopkirk, innocentvillager, jjh, Xtoxm, AGar});
Scum bussed consistently, with 1-2 scum in {Oka, Bell}.

GIVEN:
Luca Blight had heavy defenders that were going out of their way to defend him,
AND:
The case on Luca was fairly shoddy,
AND:
There was a good chance Luca's wagon would dissipate,
I am disinclined to believe that scum were entirely off of both iterations of the wagon.

It's possible all three scum were on one iteration of the wagon, but incredibly unlikely.
But I also believe there's going to be two non-Luca scum on the wagon elimination. It's going to be at least 1 there, so the options are 1 or 2.
On the initial wagon, there should also be at least 1, but it is less guaranteed to be 2.

So, 1-2 scum in {Winter Flakes, OkaPoka, Bell}; 1-2 scum in {Ythan, OkaPoka, Bell} (with Ythan probably being town); by necessity, 1-2 scum in {Hopkirk, innocentvillager, jjh, Xtoxm, AGar}.

I am still pretty sure this is Xtoxm as town.
I am still reasonably confident that the totality of IV is town.
I still feel Hopkirk is town.

So that'd be 1-2 scum in {Winter Flakes, OkaPoka, Bell} and 1-2 scum in {jjh, AGar}.

If my reads yesterday sans Luca were right it'd be Oka+Bell+AGar, but most of these combos are viable, not just that one.

[OkaPoka]

lmao how have you not reevaluated your reads

[mastina]

who else did you think was townreading Luca's D2 posting besides you?

I don't remember, but I believe that those who did are hard-town.

im also confused at why Luca self-hammered instead of tried to claim some random PR

By necessity, to make those on the wagon look good and those defending him look bad. That's the only explanation where the pros outweigh the cons.

Cons of a scumflip: those who pushed him as scum look like town and if they are town they're going to be hard to eliminate; we get a scumflip; it's easier to do analysis such as vca; those who defended him, if scum, are going to be exposed and wide open; there's less scum so it's harder for scum to influence the game both during the day and night.

Pros of a scumflip: ends the day early due to self-hammer; gives scum the opportunity to off the vig; ???; ???; ????????.

Which is to say: pros to a scumflip are literally nonexistent

unless

you fill in those question marks with "those who pushed him as scum look like town, but were scumbuddies" and "those who defended him are exposed and wide open, but are town".

I agree there was a lot of bussing going on given that literally nobody else had reasons for voting Luca but the votes just kept ticking up.

Do you now?

VOTE: Mastina

Vote Count 2.10 (FINAL)

Luca Blight

(8): Winter Flakes, OkaPoka,

Titus

,

Almost50

, Bell,

Cephrir

Almost50

(2): AGar, Ythan

OkaPoka

(1): Hopkirk

Titus

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting

(2): jjh927, Xtoxm

Vote Count 1.5

hercule

(7): Ythan, OkaPoka, the worst/Bell,

Cephrir

Lady Lambdadelta

(4):

hercule

, Hopkirk, innocentvillager

the worst/Bell

(2): jjh927, Winter Flakes

DrippingGoofball

(1): Xtoxm

Not Voting

(2):

Titus

, AGar

(Removed truly alignment-known players; colored green players I am treating as conftown.)

Because the names on both Luca wagon are literally {Oka, Bell, Cephrir}--if both wagons had, as you say, "a lot of bussing", there's literally only three players, yourself as one of them, who it could be.

And your vote is for someone who was on neither hercule/Luca wagon.

If scum did heavily bus, a sentiment I agree with, you're a prime candidate but even without you Oka and Winter Flakes would be prime suspects here.

[OkaPoka]

did you really just edit these votecounts incorrectly to make yourself look better what the fuck

[OkaPoka]

oh that is slimy

Vote Count 2.10 (FINAL)

Luca Blight

(8): Winter Flakes, OkaPoka,

Titus

,

Almost50

, Bell,

Cephrir

Almost50

(2): AGar, Ythan

OkaPoka

(1): Hopkirk

Titus

(1): innocentvillager

Not Voting

(2): jjh927, Xtoxm

Vote Count 1.5

hercule

(7): Ythan, OkaPoka, the worst/Bell,

Cephrir

Lady Lambdadelta

(4):

hercule

, Hopkirk, innocentvillager

the worst/Bell

(2): jjh927, Winter Flakes

DrippingGoofball

(1): Xtoxm

Not Voting

(2):

Titus

, AGar

that is yours:

this is actual

5

Towards the end of the film Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975), the character of King Arthur repeatedly confuses the number five with the number three.

Vote Count 1.5

hercule

(7): Lady Lambdadelta, Ythan, OkaPoka, the worst, Dannflor, Dunnstral, Cephrir

Lady Lambdadelta

(4): DrippingGoofball, hercule, Hopkirk, innocentvillager

the worst

(2): jjh927, Winter Flakes

Dannflor

(1): mastina

Almost50

(1): Almost50

DrippingGoofball

(1): Xtoxm

Not Voting

(2): Titus, AGar

With 18 alive, it takes 10 votes to eliminate. Deadline is set for 11:00 AM PST on February 12, in (expired on 2021-02-12 15:00:00).

you left dgb one vote and removed your vote on dann?

[Winter Flakes]

osht worldstar worldstar

[mastina]

agar, Titus don’t seem super partnery with Luca

Titus, sure, but AGar, why?

I’m wondering why Luca self hammered?? maybe he has good amtiassociatices with his team?? idk

If so, if he had good anti-associatives with his team, which players do you suppose that would be?

I can point to Titus and say that, while an example of strong anti-associatives, she thoroughly doesn't fit as a scumbuddy even one with good antiassociatives by virtue of Titus's approach and such.

I can point to Cephrir and say that, while an example of strong anti-associatives, he is just town on his own merits, and quite strongly so.

That limits the number of players with strong anti-associatives, doesn't it?

[OkaPoka]

you removed all your votes for consistency but its more work to remove your votes so there isnt the lazy excuse lol

you colored dgb anyways too

what is going on with these colorings

[Winter Flakes]

i mean from her perspective she's confirmed alignment so that's why her vote isn't there

[mastina]

Town:

Mastina, IV,

Agar

, A50,

Poka

, Dunnstral, Xtoxm, Ceph

PoE:

Bell

, Titus, Ythan, Hopkirk,

Winter Flakes

, jjh

idk, i still think it's very unlikely that Luca literally puts his 3 buddies in the PoE, his posting style was stilted enough that it doesn't seem like he would do some crazy wifom move

Personally, I agree--it's either a 1-2 split of one buddy in town and 2 in poe, or a 2-1 split of two buddies in town and 1 in poe.

I've highlighted my thoughts on which players that's most likely to be.

[Winter Flakes]

i'm wounded

i follow the spirit of dann/lld and this is what i get

[OkaPoka]

whats the point of purging votes tho

[Winter Flakes]

idk to me it doesn't achieve much but i think it's in line with mastina's general playstyle from what we've seen these last couple games

[mastina]

@A50 did you think Dunnstral was the vig? i wonder if scum was expecting to have a shot at hitting vig or if they killed Dunn more for his reads

IV, there were literally only two people who would've shot DGB N1: Cephrir or Dunnstral. Literally NOBODY else in the game was EVER making a N1 DGB shot. Scum had a reasonably good 50/50 guess there. Now admittedly, I actually thought it was Cephrir due to Dunnstral's D2 opener, but it should be no surprise that when literally only two players were adamant DGB was scum and DGB was vigged, that one of them is the vig and that the scum were smart enough to figure it out.

I said that once Almost50 claimed, the town's power roles were, unfortunately, probably all exposed, and I did so for good reason.

[OkaPoka]

im wounded but then again mastina thinks i townread dgb or something

[OkaPoka]

too scummy to be scum lmao alright im dipping

[mastina]

(idk if/how much you played with her before. ive assumed little to none since you're a new player)

This is literally my fourth game with Bell, and while one of those I replaced in after he was dead and a second game I was 3p (albeit a townsiding one who was playing hard-town the entire time), the other two, not so much.

Our first game together was MBOS 10, where I was technically 3p (even tho I was strongly trying to be town the entire time).

Our next game together was Pooky vs FL, where I was town (tho he was scum there so I suppose technically he had no need to sort me there).

Next was Among Us Mafia, tho to reiterate, he was dead by the time I replaced in.

And finally, We have DBZ Mafia, where we were both town.

[mastina]

when scum is mastina like a powerwolfy kind of style?

Traditionally? Circa 2015-2018? Yes, absolutely. I pioneered the saying of "effort != alignment" because I was legit one of the highest-efforting scum players onsite. Even in a game where

I was literally mechanically confscum

, I kept fighting to the bitter end and was so town that the player I had hard-pocketed the entire game in lylo had trouble being convinced to vote me in spite of being literally mechanically confscum. In a game where I was literally a mechanical confscum, I almost still won due to being

that

able to pocket a townie in lylo. (They did ultimately listen to the mechanical guilty, but it took a lot of effort from the town to convince them of the mechguilty in spite of how painfully obvious it was. I knew I was caught dead to rights mechanically, but I still tried to win that game anyway.)

I never believe in giving up. I never believe in conceding defeat. I never believe in surrendering.

Now, granted--that doesn't mean I never accept my elimination! I, explicitly, have very low faith in my ability to carry the game as solo-scum. For the entirety of my career as scumastina, I am pretty sure there's never been so much as a single game where I planned from the getgo to be the last scum alive, and every time it did happen, I dreaded it and was sure I wouldn't be able to pull on through with the victory.

And, in fact, multiple scumgames of mine

hinged on

me being a fairly early elimination. It was planned in Star Wars Rogue One. (Admittedly, it didn't pan out that way, I did end up as the solo scum there, but that was due to a cop guilty on our planned carry. It was PLANNED for me to bus them and them to bus me and for ME to die instead of them, the cop guilty fucked that plan over and forced me into a position I very much did not want to be in.) It was done successfully and infamously in Left 4 Dead Mafia 2 where I rather infamously

openly claimed to be scum on D2

, to discredit the cop guilty on me. (I knew Molla had cop guiltied me, but I had planned to be bussed from D1, telling my scumbuddies to bus me and me bussing them to set up good associatives after I flipped, which payed off big time.) And it was a key strategy in camn vs. Pine, to have ME be the D1 elimination as a useless scum role rather than our actually-useful critical scum roles that then got immediate mileage.

So when I say that I am, traditionally, one of the highest-efforting scum players onsite, it doesn't necessarily mean I will be fighting to survive, since I always 100% of the time doubt in my ability to carry a scumteam and place faith in my scumbuddies to carry me and put trust in them to do what I cannot, but it does mean that over time I do have a plethora of games where I power-efforted.

And in MOST of those games, I largely didn't bus. Some games featured strategic bussing. Any game where I was planning to die had me bussing to set my scumbuddies up after I died. The original XP mafia featured a rather notable cross-bus that was deliberately executed on: Kokichi Oma and I both decided to deliberately hard-bus the other to literally divide the town perfectly in half, with half thinking one was town and the other was scum, but nobody correctly deducing we BOTH were scum. (And it worked, too! I'm pretty sure nobody thought it was TvT, but nobody, not a single townie, thought it was SvS; they all assumed SvT or TvS.)

But MOST of the time, by and large, I didn't bus, having literally wrote the book on not bussing. I high-efforted to keep my scumbuddies alive and slowly eliminate the town players, by and large.

So traditionally, scumastina is about as powerwolf as powerwolves get. While I was smart enough to plan for the specific game with situational awareness, the general trend was to be high effort and always do the most I could.

Circa 2015-2018.

However.

From 2019 onwards, my scumgames have become...somewhat...lackluster.
It actually began in 2018. I literally couldn't keep up as scum.
When I was trying hard, it wasn't paying off.
Even a game I did well in, I ended up being outskilled and losing in.
I began to get burned out from playing scum after a streak of too many consecutive scumgames.
And then, getting my wish, I had a huge, huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge gap in games where I had a solid townstreak--I literally had

twenty-one consecutive towngames

.

And then my scumgame that broke the streak of towngames? Was this game. No effort.
And then I replaced into this game. Negative effort.
Finally came Animals UPick, even there a low-effort scumgame where I just couldn't find myself power-wolfing.

And even before I was force-replaced, I had basically zero posts this game. (I think my posts that game can be counted on a single hand?)
Ditto for here, too--also a game I was force-replaced in, but prior to that, would you call any of my posting there efforting? It really wasn't.

So, traditionally, since late 2018 and beyond, into 2019 and 2020, I've had zero real effort as a scumgame.
However, notably, my most recent scumgame did contain effort from me, albeit even there still notably:
-Rather lackluster compared to my townplay,
-Very slow to ramp up,
-Having heavy mechanics talk that is easy to do for scumastina,
-Had possible 3ps for me to theoretically scumhunt and everyone knows that in pseudo-multiball, scum can genuinely scumhunt, making it easier to effort,
-Had a damn good excuse in the form of Dunnstral as town genuinely legitimately being SO underwhelming that he just looked like scum so badly that had I not been scum (who thus knew better) I would've been dead-set on him being scum.

So in 2021, could I effort as scum?

Why, sure, it's possible I could powerscum. The MBOS micro proves it's still

possible

, albeit unlikely. After all, if ever there is a time to look good as scum, it'd be during Team Mafia; what better game than this one to return to prime scumastina form? There's literally no better time than this game to do so. I've fallen from my prime, so playing AT my prime in front of hundreds of scummers would be a statement that, yes, I actually AM good as scum.

So in theory I could be scum.

But I'm not gonna lie: I legitimately, genuinely, don't think I

can

play at prime scumastina form anymore. The skills that I had there are just...

gone

. They don't exist anymore. I lost them. I legit don't think I can get them back. I can maybe get to a level somewhat

close

to the level I had at my prime, maybe, MAYBE. But I don't think I truly can powerscum anymore. I just...lost my heart for it.

[OkaPoka]

i just read that post and it feels like you are arguing why you are scum lmao this is truly a spectator sport

[mastina]

lmao how have you not reevaluated your reads

I did--reevaluating reads doesn't mean "oh all of these players I had as scum before are now town and all of these players I had as town are now scum".

Reevaluating means evaluating those reads and reassessing them to see if they still hold.

Some do, some don't.

Not all of my reads still hold--Titus is town, for instance, and Winter Flakes isn't town, for instance, and jjh I'm not defending, for instance, and Cephrir I am locktownning, for instance.

But not all of my reads change--what in Luca's flip gives me reason to believe any of {Oka, Bell, AGar} are town? Surface-level "Oka and Bell were on the Luca elimination wagon" analysis that's shallow and insincere?

No.

Now I admit.

I am in a need of rechecking various aspects of various points in the days. I need to reread, do some isos, check things to see what is the most likely scum pairings. Figure out which players are most likely to be scum and which players are least likely to be scum. My memory of events is not perfect--I may have forgotten interactions that strongly suggest scum-scum or interactions that strongly suggest not-SvS. But reassessing my reads does not require me to do that effort first; that effort is the follow-through to refine and further adjust the reads after the initial reassessment, give me a targeted area to look at more or less.