Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[Bingle]

I think it is very likely Pooky and Skitter share an alignment.

[Bingle]

Mena already brought up the argument, but I think both skitter and Pooky scum would be likely to neighborize the other.

Would anyone in the larger pool be characterized as limbait? They're probably town if so.

[Bingle]

It's pretty surface level, tbh.

Of the players on this list, skitts and I are two of the people who are seen as particularly good at scum and skitts is literally the only person in the list who I would say is scary as town. Infinity putting herself in a neighborhood with both of us is pretty ballsy.

Ofc, skitts always scumreads townme.

It's also backwards. I'd totally have put a weak link into the little hood, because a weak link getting limmed in the big hood is game over for scum, and there's actually quite a bit of talent in this list, at least amongst those I recognize.

[Bingle]

I don't see what makes No face scummy. pics?

[Bingle]

we should actually have the elim be decided by the 3p hood onto the 6p hood

because the scum in the 3p hood can't bus.

because if they bus the game is over

I'm down to make this step 1, but we need to discuss afterwards.

Agreed that we're 100% killing in the big group today though.

[Bingle]

skitter has terrible accuracy for me. I'm bad at reading her early and good at reading her late, as rare as reading skitter late actually comes up. I don't think I have sufficient experience with Infinity to say for certain, but I know we've played before and I don't think she would be impossible to play around.

If I were to be in the small group, I would 100% need to trust my partner could last a few eliminations. In this list, I can implicitly trust that of pooky/mena/skitts and to a lesser extent Norwee. I don't know anyone else well enough to put that kind of faith into them.

[Bingle]

we should actually have the elim be decided by the 3p hood onto the 6p hood

because the scum in the 3p hood can't bus.

because if they bus the game is over

I'm down to make this step 1, but we need to discuss afterwards.

Agreed that we're 100% killing in the big group today though.

I still don't understand this:
Can't we just lynch into the group of 3, potentially have NKs that make our decision into the group of 6, and then win just as easily by killing the scum in the group of six as we would have if we'd done it earlier?
I don't really care about how long the game goes, I'd just rather win.

Correctly limming in the pool of 3 D1 makes this a functionally a mountainous setup. It's not terrible, but it's also not great. OTOH, correctly limming in the big pool wins us the game. Also, limming in the big pool means scum is likely to shoot in the big pool. In the case that skitts is town, letting her have multiple phases to solve the game is a dangerous proposition. Similarly with me. Leaving both of us alive means that there is a decent chance that one of the two of us destroys the shit out of the gamestate, which is a risky proposition all around. If scum is going to shoot in the little group regardless, we want to force them to make that decision later. If we conftown people in the little group, doing so late game is inarguably the stronger move.

tl;dr -> Catching scum on D1 is less important than setting up a winnable XLO.

[Bingle]

I don't think we played in 2017, but I'm pretty sure we played at least a few games before my hiatus. I did a lot of hydra-ing and alts back then though.

[Bingle]

But I think it's very conceivable that we never get confirmed towns or scum NKs in the smaller group before losing the game, why do you expect this to happen if we initially kill into the large pool?

If we correctly elim in the small pool (1/3), we're looking at scum needing to miseliminate 3 times in the big pool to win. This is 5/6*4/5*2/3 for optimal play, or about 44%. Yes, scum wins a little bit less than half the time if we correctly eliminate in the small pool. 6:1 with a single IC is not a very strong position for town.

In any other case, scum should be shooting into the bigger pool tonight. As Pooky pointed out, the interactions are more telling when the big pool scum player is on the line than when the little pool scum player is on the line. Therefore, hitting the big pool scum player inevitably gives more information than hitting the small pool scum player.

[Bingle]

Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.

[Bingle]

Mena, you have significant partner equity with Infinity. Thoughts?

[Bingle]

Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.

Why? Not sold on the "not thinking through mech" argument, you can just post what you thought when you first saw the setup

From interactions: I doubt skitter puts the majority of her teams fate in their hands and I doubt that you go for the early softbus right here when it's a potentially game ending strategy.

[Bingle]

I REALLY don't like the idea of leaving the big pool lynch up to the small pool, I'll fight hard against that one.

Not quite what I meant when I said it was step one. I think we should have the three of us decide who we would elim in the next few days and then use that to inform the rest of D1.

[Bingle]

but i kinda feel infinity has entered the game assuming that we're going to flipping in 3p first and is setting the stage for why that ought to be me

It had occurred to me.

[Bingle]

Pooky's math is off. EV for little pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~40%, EV for big pool elims until scum with optimal nightkills is ~44%. More importantly, actually hitting scum in the big pool leaves us in a much better place to find the remaining scum from a subjective standpoint, and the only way we lose by looking there first is if the scum is literally the towniest player in that pool.

[Bingle]

they're probably not together from skitter agreeing that it's a thing.

Eh. skitter trying to deny that it's a thing doesn't work. Too many people in the lobby know better.

[Bingle]

I think this is wrong too, walk me through how you got these numbers if you care to argue it

Exhaustive analysis of the cases within the parameters. All of the possible townwins for littlepoolfirst, for instance, are

TTSS (.083)
TSS (.066)
TSTS (.07)
SS (.0556)
STS (.0556)
STTS (.074)

Which sums to 40.4%.

I assume you will take my word at this point, but analyzing setups is kinda my jam.

[Bingle]

I'd think that it would be too hard for scum!her to justify.

Hm.

[Bingle]

Oi bingle explain why I have equity with infinity

Of all the players on the list, you're the only one that comes to mind as probably not wanting to be in a hood with me and skitts. Additionally, I could easily see you as being the type to commit to winning through a single pool and shooting inside of the small pool despite it being mathematically suboptimal to do so.

[Bingle]

also is your argument for why conftowning people in the little group bad largely solely based on who's in it or ...
i'm kinda rambling as i think through this but let's say infinity is scum, we flip her today, say i die tonight. are you basically arguing that in that scenario we'd want town-you to be conftowned later so we shouldn't try to flip scum-infinity today ? or am i missing something. or if you die we'd want me to be conftowned later? either way we'd have a conftown through the end of day2, no? that's p good?

If we conftown players in the small pool D1, they're both dead before XLO. It's the same principle as keeping masons hidden as long as possible. Having conftown early is actually pretty useless comparitively.

Also, from a gamestate perspective, we're guaranteed to have at worst a 50/50 at 5p XLO if we go big pool first. I'm not going to say that the possibility of scum fearkilling one of us out of the little pool isn't a factor (it is) but even without it the flip of the bigpool scum IS more informative than the flip of the little pool scum.

[Bingle]

@skitts, ignoring whether we should hit the 3p or the 6p for the moment (the argument is getting fairly circular) if you knew for sure that we were going after the 6p who would you want to see dead rn?

[Bingle]

I think vanders is very null

What'd you think of my vanders town logic?

[Bingle]

ok but we might not get any conftown at all your way
i don't think we should be playing around getting conftown anyways per se so much as we should be trying to flip scum and i think it's easier in the smaller one.

i do think that at worst having 50/50 in 5p xylo is a decent point actually ... but i think if we flip through 3p first we we guarantee 3way, no? it's that better? cuz in 50-50 5p xylo we still need to get it right to get to 3way?

Mathematically, limming in the big pool has a very slight advantage numbers wise, although not enough to make it a cut and dry this is the only option decision.

Subjectively, the difference here is low risk - low reward vs moderate risk - moderate reward. If we hit scum in the first two elims in the big pool we still have workable conftown come 5p. If we lim in the small pool we NEVER have conftown in 5p.

On a fundamental level, the more salient point behind me wanting to hit the 6p first is the one pooky brought up: The scum in the 6p can't afford to be elimmed today. The scum in the 3p CAN. I think hunting the former gives us far more useful information to make subjective calls than hunting the latter.

[Bingle]

@Mena:

Fairly confident in Vandertown aorn, btw.

Why? Not sold on the "not thinking through mech" argument, you can just post what you thought when you first saw the setup

From interactions: I doubt skitter puts the majority of her teams fate in their hands and I doubt that you go for the early softbus right here when it's a potentially game ending strategy.

tl;dr I don't think Vander is scum with skitter. I also don't think Vander is scum with Infinity. I think it is fairly obvious I wouldn't trust someone I don't know to be the linchpin of my team.

I also don't think he would be quite as vocal about his plan against me in light of him being unsure about my competency and me playing it up, although I hadn't brought that up yet.

[Bingle]

@jingle Do you have a read on me?

I think you are slightly more likely to be scum than skitter atm. I am wary enough of skitter to not care to solve that mess quite yet.

[Bingle]

I’ll consider infinity on the understanding that if skitt+bingle become conf then we dead sheep them until lylo

Fuck that noise. If I die you throw my reads out with the bathwater. My forte is setting up the gamestate so that other people can catch the scum. My early reads are pretty buckshot.

[Bingle]

Pooky.

[Bingle]

Most of those numbers look right but for TTSS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 1 x 1/3 = 0.111
And for TSTS I get 2/3 x 1/2 x 4/5 x 1/3 = 0.0888

I could look back, I suppose and see if I typo'd a calculation somewhere, but when we agree with the conclusion that the math says the two options are very similar and the subjective criteria is more important I'm not sure it's worth the distraction.

[Bingle]

I'm going to sleep

night infinity! we shall continue our bickering on the morrow

Pooky.

ok interesting take, why?

FMPOV: 50% of the time you are scum. You know that scum in the small pool cannot be the endgame scum, therefore your partner is likely high tier. I would wager a very significant portion of the time, Infinity's team would also be aware of this restriction. That implies that the scum in the other pool is someone who can be trusted to pull a game by themselves. Of the names I recognize, Pooky and Mena best fit that bill with an outside chance of HecticAlt. Mena/You doesn't look S/S. Pooky and you have a disproportionate likelihood of being grouped if unaligned.

All of that is circumstantial evidence that points to Pooky having a higher likelihood of being scum than anyone else. Also, if I flip PookyTown, you become significantly more likely to be town imo, which is helpful for solving the you/infinity 1v1 later.

[Bingle]

Endgame is the wrong word, tbh. More important? The scum in the big pool can solo the game. The scum in the little pool has to rely on the scum in the big pool to be able to hold their own much more.

[Bingle]

Just checked scum's chances of winning going for the big pool first with all the possible combinations and it checks out, it's definitely 45% to win as town with small pool first and 41% to win with big pool first, the people who are saying big pool first is mathematically better are definitely wrong.
I don't agree that small pool scum can just afford to get eliminated, either, there's a pretty decent chance that we get to a point in the game after aiming for the big pool and missing twice that the small pool turns into the bigger pool.

Hm, went back and checked, and you are correct. Still, the point I made in 319 is still relevant as the entire premise is that mathematically both options are similar enough to not matter. A couple of percentage points of EV doesn't really mean much, which is why you don't balance games solely on EV.

[Bingle]

I find myself intrigued in the lack of cross pool solving. Objectively, my opinions about the alignments of the larger pool are more valuable and the opinions of the people in the larger pool about us are more valuable. I get very little from the skitter/infinity interactions, because I know they're T/S.

[Bingle]

Because Bingle wants to tryhard?
Idk him very well, but i think he likes a challenge.

Tinfoil says this could be a scum slip.

Norwee, what gives you that impression?

[Bingle]

Oh, and also VOTE: pooky

[Bingle]

Norwee, do you meta dive peeps? Not in this game, just as a general rule.

[Bingle]

I was thinking that the 6p hood could vote on someone for the 3p hood to pledge our votes to. If the chosen player is scum, they weren't getting limmed anyway, so it should increase our chances to hit scum. I think I'd rather that than try to read into scum!skitt/scum!jingle associatives. If people want to exclude me from that that's actually ideal for me, scum!me isn't great at coming up with reasons not to vote my partners.

Making sure this doesn't get missed

I guess I didn't make sure enough?

I read it and am largely ambivalent to the suggestion. Seems like a way for us to not have reads accountability.

[Bingle]

I’m not meta diving, i just remember.

Hm. What do you think about the fact that your characterization is not only 100% accurate, but actually the reason I lost in a game that I linked in the neighborhood that just so happens to have scum in it 100% of the time?

[Bingle]

I’m aware of the game yes. I also don’t think it’s a particularly astonishing leap to make given I don’t hide that aspect of my personality. As I said, the thought is pretty tinfoil-y. I am decidedly not a fan of pooky defending me on the basis of 513 given that he had the front row though.

[Bingle]

pageget

[Bingle]

Wait why can’t vanders be scum with bingle?

bingle knows the mech and wouldnt throw vander into the more important scum slot

I mean... I might. I did fakeclaim vig in a micro cause I got bored, which is what I was referencing.

[Bingle]

The fundamental question is “does infinity!scum take the risk of trying to paranoia/WIFOM everyone on skitter/bingle being in together, or not?”

If she does I think it's because she thinks she's a sacrificial lamb and her partner is expected to carry.

[Bingle]

My theory is that the hood distribution proves we have a ballsy player that wants to take on the big league and prove themselves in the small hood, and a more clever deepwolf that will be trying to sound town, harmless, and pocket town in the bigger hood.
Small hood is for the powerful bruiser, big hood for the long-living wolf.

Long story short is that i more or less townread other slots in the 6p group and i think Vanderscamp's not really towntold yet and could therefore be scum just faking mediocre content.

Norwee, can you tell me about how these two positions mesh?

Cause I firmly agree with the gamestate read and think it heavily implies the read on Vander is wrong.

[Bingle]

Also, was it public knowledge that bingle was a strong player at the start of the game?
They're jingle's alt apparently, but was that already known?

All of Pooky/Skitter/Mena knew for sure. No Face seems familiar enough with me that they're probably in that group too.
Norwee/Y/Infinity knowing would not be a terrible assumption, but it's not a safe one either. That's roughly the order for likeness of awareness.

FWIW, Jingle is my modding account and this is my playing mafia account. I almost exclusively play mafia on this account and the two are publicly linked, so it's not unreasonable that anyone would know the link.

[Bingle]

No, Pooky was though. The tinfoil was that Nor's scumpartner could have shared the links with him. It's a pretty out there theory, and I liked Nor's casual dismissal of it though.

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=85019
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=84842

for reference.

[Bingle]

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=85019
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=84842

The second is the one with the vig claim, sorry the links got eaten.

[Bingle]

No, Pooky was though. The tinfoil was that Nor's scumpartner could have shared the links with him. It's a pretty out there theory, and I liked Nor's casual dismissal of it though.

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=85019
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=84842

for reference.

uh I can't be norwee's scum partner from your POV because we're in the same hood

The tinfoil was that Norwee was scum with someone from my hood who shared that information with him. It was, again, a tinfoil theory without a lot of backing.

[Bingle]

also what am i supposed to know from that game?

That I as scum am prone to making ballsy and inadvisable choices when I get bored.

It's why I don't really like your 513.

[Bingle]

No, Pooky was though. The tinfoil was that Nor's scumpartner could have shared the links with him. It's a pretty out there theory, and I liked Nor's casual dismissal of it though.

viewtopic.php?f=84&t=85019
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=84842

for reference.

The game nor quoted that he said was his reference for the read he gave, do you think that that game makes sense for him to have had that read?

Eh. Not particularly, but it's also an ancient game. IIRC I made aggressive pushes throughout D1 and me skitter and wooperduck all paranoiad on each other until the game detonated and the scum came in and mopped everything up.

Him having that impression solely from talking to people about me is very reasonable though, and I think it's likely he's had at least a few conversations where I've come up.

[Bingle]

UNVOTE:

Saw the E-1, want more solid reads atm.

[Bingle]

I think there’s a lot of benefit to whoever is scum in skitter/bingle, assuming infinity!town, just sheeping the other’s reads as closely as possible

Probably, yeah.

For reference, those reads are:

Vanders
Mena
Norwee

Y

NoFace/Pooky


Skit
Infinity

[Bingle]

Skitter and bingle why do you not want to eliminate infinity? And why is she still at the bottom for both of you?

Mechanically she's likely to be scum. I've talked about why I want to elim in the 6p first. I don't think internal pool solving is as valuable to the gamestate as crosspool interactions.

[Bingle]

Mena, you're looking at Vander saying both skitter and Bingle think he's town and that's suspicious. I posit to you that both skitter and Bingle think he's town, and arrived there on different trains. I invite you to look at each of our logics. Which of us do you think is wrong and why, because at least one of us is confirmed to have a town perspective while saying that.

[Bingle]

VOTE: norwee

Really?

Whyfore? Just because I townread him?

[Bingle]

Not really?

Pooky is saying that No Face not reading into my willingness to eliminate Pooky as a possible argument for PookyTown presents itself as proof that No Face isn't actually attempting to read Pooky.

Me unvoting Pooky could mean that I could be scum with Pooky FYPOV, but that doesn't particularly detract from the argument that Pooky is making because at the time that No Face started pushing Pooky I was the biggest proponent of the elimination. Using my unvote to justify the behavior that came before my unvote is backwards logic, unless you also want to argue that NF knew I was going to unvote.

Hence, both Pooky and No Face are fairly scummy. In the world where Pooky is town, he raises some valid points about No Face. In the world where No Face is town, there is still circumstantial evidence that flipping Pooky is a strong play.

Does someone want to towncase Y for me? I'm a bit gunshy on townreading her based on a genuine attempt to gamesolve D1 for reasons I can't go into atm, and would be grateful for explanation.

[Bingle]

No face was not pushing to kill you when you started SRing him

ok what do you think he was pushing me for then?

All I remember is him stating that he thought you were likely scum by PoE. That is what I did when I voted no face and then you.

I wouldn't think this is scum-indicative necessarily but it might be when I was getting on everyone's case about not TRing me. It's easier to just call me town there (esp when pooky has recent experience with scum!me that was very different from here)

Jingle what do you think about this? I basically SRed pooky for the same reason as no face

I mean... a lack of deserved paranoia towards me is one of the bigger reasons I think you’re sketchy. It’s not a reason to townread pooky, but I definitely understand it as a reason to scumread no face.

[Bingle]

Like the entire point of coming up with something like that as scum is because you want to come off as town, but 655 shows very clearly ydrasse isn't thinking about how she's perceived.

I can’t explain why but the is basically the exact opposite of convincing me y is town.

[Bingle]

Your early game interactions with me didn’t carry the same wariness I would expect from someone who knows I have a 50% chance of being scum and it did seem you were fairly spring loaded to skitter scum in our group before either skitter or I had done much of anything. You did walk that back a bit when you realized I have a reputation, which is interesting, but it doesn’t erase the behavior in the first place.

Mechanically speaking, me and skitter should have been your top two scum reads and I just never got the sense that I was in our interactions. It could be play style, but between that and you being 50/50 scum I don’t particularly trust you. OTOH, I’m also not really interested in litigating that read because narrowing down locktown in the 6p is far more useful right now.

[Bingle]

Talking about the ways in which and to what extent ydrasse is town is like the least interesting thing we could be doing

The most interesting? Yeeting norwee into the void

I thought I was pretty clearly fishing for reasoning, but let’s try it this way: Why do you think norwee is scum?

[Bingle]

Y dont u think he’s scum?

Mostly gut. I liked his gamestate analysis and his response to my tinfoil felt unconcerned. He's easily my weakest townread, though and I was hoping for spicy reasons to scumread him as an angle of engagement. Your handwaivey everything argument is kinda disappointing, tbh.

[Bingle]

I think it might be pooky and bingle.

I really don't like Bingle for agreeing with Pooky's reasoning that I'm scummy for not reevaluating that one of my scumreads happens to be voting the other. I've been pushed for this as town before and I've never understood it, I just treat my reads independently, and no, Bingle voting for Pooky while I'm sus of both is not going to magically make me less suspicious of Pooky. Yes, it means they are less likely to be aligned if Bingle commits to that vote/push but before that, distancing is a thing, and even if I think Bingle/Pooky aren't aligned, what do I do? I townread 4 others in that and Pooky is nullscum, I don't just randomly go and scumread one of my townreads. I just really don't understand that scumread/reason at all but maybe Pooky and I just think differently

What I really don't like is Bingle agreeing with that assessment though (_(

I'm not sure what your issue with it is, tbh.

Your reason for Pooky scum is that you townread 4 people who aren't named Pooky. Pooky thinks (thought?) you're not making a genuine effort to read him. He is, objectively, right. Pooky thinks that you should, if town, at least consider the implications of voting alongside one of your strongest scumreads on a PoE read. I don't see how any of that is unreasonable as an argument, especially in the absence of strong evidence implicating someone.

I would be interested in your responses to my multiple requests for towncases though.

[Bingle]

Really?

Whyfore? Just because I townread him?

Yes

Because I think he’s scum

No

Why do you think norwee is scum?

Because of posts in his ISO

This is basically the definition of handwaivy. You did give the area around 600 to look at and I'm going to go do that in a minute, but when I ask a townread why they scumread someone pretty much the last thing I want is to hear "Everything".

[Bingle]

You were a PoE read at the time, I had no reasons to think you were scum

I had some reasons to think Pooky were scum but they weren't strong, see here:

Pooky if you want the reasons why I think you could be scum and have been on the back of No Face's mind:

In the last coalition game you played as town, you were really excited about the prospect of a day 1 win and actively pushed hard for it. But while doing this you were also outting lots of reads are trying to win the game by finding town and scum

In this game, you acted similarly about the big day 1 win but did nothing to help it like giving reads or finding town/scum. It's like you're going through the motions but not doing the fieldwork I saw you were eager to do in that coalition game

:/

I have absolutely no issue voting alongside a PoE read on someone that I think could be scum

Who do you want me to towncase? !_!

I don't think Y is locktown, and you're probably the first person I'd expect to understand that, so that's the one I'm most interested in tbh.

[Bingle]

liked his gamestate analysis

Why/what about it

My theory is that the hood distribution proves we have a ballsy player that wants to take on the big league and prove themselves in the small hood, and a more clever deepwolf that will be trying to sound town, harmless, and pocket town in the bigger hood.
Small hood is for the powerful bruiser, big hood for the long-living wolf.

Long story short is that i more or less townread other slots in the 6p group and i think Vanderscamp's not really towntold yet and could therefore be scum just faking mediocre content.

Norwee, can you tell me about how these two positions mesh?

Cause I firmly agree with the gamestate read and think it heavily implies the read on Vander is wrong.

I'm currently waiting on a response, but this.

[Bingle]

But you are not very willing to keep pooky at E-1 as evidenced by your unvote when he got there, so what pooky is saying is just wrong.

Do you think we should end the day right now?

[Bingle]

she doesn't think highly of her scumgame

Is this actually accurate? I got the opposite impression from FLectic. She seemed pretty comfortable pocketing FL and you drafter her.

[Bingle]

You were town in shea's among us Pooky, right? Which side of the alternate wincon debate did you fall?

[Bingle]

I'm functionally the exact opposite. I'd rather have a suboptimal elimination and enough content to analyze later on, and I think your stance is an inherently silly one.

Also, I'm fully confident in my ability to force through a Pooky elim if I decide that's what I really want.

[Bingle]

Pooky do you disagree with 971 972 or still think I'm scummy for it?_?

FWIW, the fact that you weren't looking at the ripcord I had to bail on the wagon is a major part of what I didn't like about you ignoring Pooky's attempt to get you to look at the gamestate. Like, there was a very clear answer to what Pooky was saying and you didn't put in the thought to find it.

[Bingle]

Bingle has just clearly implied that he's against early majorities, and he is almost certainly not the only one.

Not implied, outright stated.

I also made that clear earlier on, publicly, when in response to Pooky's little pool picks a lim plan I said it was a fine starting point but then we should discuss before actually deciding on a lim.

The ripcord I'm mentioning of course, is that when I started the Pooky train, I did so with the clear indication that my motivation for the push was information and weak gamestate evidence. Turning that read around would be trivial at functionally any point.

[Bingle]

pre-flip analyse

Pre flip analysis is actually super useful when you have limited scumteam options. For example, my vanders towncase. He doesn't have a viable scumpartner fmpov, therefore he is probably not scum.

[Bingle]

I see what you mean, Bangle. I didn't go looking for that because I was never trying to convince Pooky you two could be aligned in the first place, I think I got dragged into that later because the point kept coming up, but my main point was:

If Bingle does something with makes Pooky and Bingle less likely to be aligned
It means one of those reads of mine may be incorrect, it does not make me reevaluate and start townreading Pooky somehow, or not townreading others I had reasons to townread
:8

I understand that. I never thought that was unreasonable. The bit I didn't like was that you didn't even attempt to engage the logic. Pooky said "Look, I'm clearly unaligned with Bingle who is your biggest scumread in the other pool." and your response wasn't to look at that argument but to dismiss it out of hand on the basis that you TR'd everyone else in the big pool. I don't have the confidence that everyone you TR in the big pool is locktown. Nor do I have the confidence that you can't be wrong about a locktown read if indeed you are town. So you not even looking at the argument Pooky was making and trying to judge the merit behind it to solve Pooky pings. The original argument (the one about how I couldn't be partners with Pooky) was a shit one, but no one brought up the very obvious reason it was a shit one, which made me raise an eyebrow.

Both you and pooky are on that tier of "Hm. Maybe this is scum?" that makes me want to poke you with sticks and see if bees come out.

[Bingle]

If I decide skitter is scum I will be voting locking my vote on Pooky because I'd feel pretty stupid after misyeeting skitter D1 if I was wrong.

[Bingle]

My theory is that the hood distribution proves we have a ballsy player that wants to take on the big league and prove themselves in the small hood, and a more clever deepwolf that will be trying to sound town, harmless, and pocket town in the bigger hood.
Small hood is for the powerful bruiser, big hood for the long-living wolf.

Long story short is that i more or less townread other slots in the 6p group and i think Vanderscamp's not really towntold yet and could therefore be scum just faking mediocre content.

Norwee, can you tell me about how these two positions mesh?

Cause I firmly agree with the gamestate read and think it heavily implies the read on Vander is wrong.

Why would it make Vander read wrong?
I’m still looking at the potential for other slots to be scum, but going by information so far i’ve found Vanders sus. Mena has been playing relatively above their usual scum meta. Pooky’s not clear, Ydrasse seems townie by their tone and posts, No Face made good analyzis. Vanderscamp hasn’t done anything i’ve found townie yet. (Keep in mind i’m still at page 20 ish so maybe it will change)

Who in the 3p chooses Vanderscamp to be the scum that has to stay alive longer? Vanderscamp, for reference, has one recently completed scumgame where he was vigged N1 afaict.

I think:

Pooky/skitter
Vander/Bingle

are my predictions

I did it guys, I did the preflip analysis

You're doing it wrong. The preflip analysis isn't "I think X and Y are scum together." The preflip analysis is "I think X and Y can't be scum together. I think X and Z can't be scum together. Therefore, it is unlikely that X is scum in any case."

[Bingle]

Pooky - tbqh if he's controlling which pt people are sorted into he puts me in the same one as him like always to chill and shitpost with me, irregardless of how he thinks i might view that and/or whether or not i might decide to push him for it. We're not in the same pt so town

Try again, but this time make the argument not presumptive on you being town.

[Bingle]

i'm also kinda getting an agenda-driven vibe from him tbh.

:thorface:

[Bingle]

Ydrasse, Mena, Pooky, No Face have all felt town.
Vandercamp's felt fake. He was so obviously town to me in the previous game we had, here his posts seem artificial and constructed.

And which one of me/skitter/Infinity puts him in the pool where he literally has to survive?

[Bingle]

It doesn't really matter if he flips scum. We win anyway.
But i'm feeling Infinity town as of right now, so either one of you or Skitter in most likelihood.

And why do skitter or I put the player with one recent completed scumgame who was vigged N1 in the position of "Absolutely has to duck elimination"?

[Bingle]

and a more clever deepwolf that will be trying to sound town, harmless, and pocket town in the bigger hood.

More to the point: Does this characterize Vander's play this game from your POV?

[Bingle]

Was you and Skitter in that game he was vigged?

Nope. Do you think I wouldn't have asked a potential scumbuddy if they could carry the game before making them carry the game?

[Bingle]

If Skitter/Bingle wasn't in this game he was supposedly vigged as scum i find it a bit sus Bingle keeps bringing it up, like they came up with a plan to use this as the line of defense if Vanderscamp ever get's run up.

So... The conclusion is that if Vanderscamp is scum he's almost certainly scum with me. Why then, are you voting Vanderscamp instead of me.

And let's be crystal clear here: You are 100% aware that this is exactly the type of logic town me uses to solve a game.

[Bingle]

If you say "Lmao, i would NEVER do that as scum" that just shows it is perfectly valid for scum!you to do exactly that.

There is precisely one thing where "I would never do that as scum" counts for me. That is make the game mechanically unwinnable for scum me. Literally everything else is in my playbook.

My argument isn't about me and Vanderscamp not being a viable team (We totally are) or me and Pooky being a viable team (We totally are) or me and everyone else being a viable team (We totally are). It never will be. It's that skitter and Vanderscamp isn't a viable team and infinity and Vanderscamp isn't a viable team and so if you think Vanderscamp is scum you should be voting me.

[Bingle]

You're also giving me scum!Flavour Leaf vibes.

The main difference between our playstyles is that FL tries to win the game and I try to make the game winnable.

[Bingle]

I will be voting Vanderscamp because if he's scum with you or anyone else it's an insta-win.

Do you agree or disagree that he's probably not scum with anyone else?

[Bingle]

i'm also kinda getting an agenda-driven vibe from him tbh.

:thorface:

go on

You've said those exact words in literally every game you've played with town me, afaicr.

I have an agenda. That agenda is poking things with sticks until alignments fall out. Having an agenda is not inherently scummy, especially from me.

[Bingle]

At the moment i find it unlikely but still plausible that Vanderscamp, if scum, is with Infinity. But i could see Skitter and you, easily.

Let's examine this:

Skitter scum puts Vanderscamp in 6p pool:

That means Vanderscamp has to duck the elim in a pool of:

Mena/You/Ydrasse/NoHectic/Pooky/Vander

Off the top of my head, Mena and Pooky aren't particularly easy to miselim or pull the wool over their eyes. I don't see you as particularly mislim baity given our interactions, and Skitts seems to actively be defending you when she's here. Let's give the benefit of the doubt here and say skitts thinks NoHectic is SumRando. Even so, does that look like the basket that skitts puts all her eggs into?

[Bingle]

i don'tt hink you're aligned with him

Is this a specific S/T callout or do you think we're just not S/S? I'm assuming the latter, but would be keen on reasoning when you get back Sunday if its the former.

[Bingle]

don't think jingle challenges himself that way

Wynaut?

[Bingle]

Bingle: I'd like to hear what your read on Pooky is now and if it's changed at all over the past couple of days :j

He's the most likely scum in the pool of 6, although it's not a particularly strong read. FWIW, I made this explicit for Infinity in the neighborhood a few days ago, so scum definitely knows it.

I also went into what I'm currently doing a little bit in the hopes that scum would share with their partner and I could catch unnatural knowledge about my plans, so there's that to look for.

[Bingle]

What is sumrando?

Phonetic spelling of "Some Rando". I tend to sub homophones and phonetic spellings into my typing, apologies if it makes things unclear but it's a subconscious habit when I'm not typing professionally.

[Bingle]

I'm pretty sure Norwee is town for elephant in the room reasons, although that comes with all of the spiciness of a glass of milk atm, btw.

[Bingle]

I think Pooky/Infinity thinks that Pooky is the stronger scumplayer.

I think that Pooky/skitter thinks that both of them are strong enough to duck an elim.

Basically, I think the scum in the 6p is someone that has a higher opinion of their own scumgame than infinity or someone confident that they can get multiple miselims in that pool. I don't think a scumteam containing Vanders is confident that they can pull of multiple eliminations in that pool given the sum total of 3 completed games in the last three years Vanders has under his belt and the fact that he would definitely have a partner who could tell him that.

I'll be back to finish my thoughts in a while.

[Bingle]

Man.... I still had a town player to interrogate before killing pooky.

No one ever lets me have my fun.