Micro 1003: Divide and Conquer - Game Over!

[skitter30]

Was you and Skitter in that game he was vigged?

No, but why choose an unknown to carry for you?

I think the most likely explanation for vander!scum you actually brought up earlier which is that jingle wanted a challenge

don't think jingle challenges himself that way

[Vanderscamp]

I feel like Vandercamp's been avoiding talking about my read on him, and it's concerning me. I wanted to vibe with him as usual, but it's like he's just not there. In body yes, but his spirit is gone.

I'm responding to the specifics but a lot of what you say is stuff like "the light is out compared to last game" which is pretty hard to respond to.

[skitter30]

i'm finding this no face / pooky thing to be kinda boring and circular. i think they're most likely tvt tbh

[skitter30]

Was you and Skitter in that game he was vigged?

Nope. Do you think I wouldn't have asked a potential scumbuddy if they could carry the game before making them carry the game?

This is WIFOM territory and i don't care for it.

literally the whole point of this setup is figuring out what scum pairs are likely to do (or not) and try to deduce who they are based on what we know has happened (i.e. the pt split)

you can't just handwave that analysis as wifom just cuz you don't want to view it that way

[Infinity 324]

Skitt do you suspect anyone in the 6p besides norwee?

[skitter30]

i'm p sure i just said i don't suspect norwee
i'm gonna be honest i townread a lot of the 6p and most of the others are more ~null which isn't ideal but i'm working on it

[Infinity 324]

i'm p sure i just said i don't suspect norwee
i'm gonna be honest i townread a lot of the 6p and most of the others are more ~null which isn't ideal but i'm working on it

Who are the null reads

[Vanderscamp]

Going thru the votes/players on it:
Nor - dont remember his vote or like anything he's said

I wasn't on it.

oh maybe that's why i don't remember your vote then
who was the other vote

ydrasse jingle no face infinty (e1) vander (e1)

or was infinity only e2 and i'm misremembering it as two e1 votes
i feel like someone unvoted in between

IIRC infinity voted at E-1 and then unvoted immediately.

[Menalque]

@skitt i feel kinda more concerned by you in this game than I have in a while

[skitter30]

i'm p sure i just said i don't suspect norwee
i'm gonna be honest i townread a lot of the 6p and most of the others are more ~null which isn't ideal but i'm working on it

Who are the null reads

it's roughly in order of: ydra, mean, vander, pooky, no face, nor with ydra being the strongest townread and nor being someone who mechanically is unlikely to be scum (unles sit's like with you) but i don't townread on play

i don't really explicilty scumread anyone in that group which like i said i'm aware is a problem but i'm working on it

[skitter30]

@skitt i feel kinda more concerned by you in this game than I have in a while

that's fair, i had a few off days and a bit of an off start so i'm not super surprised
i'm sure you'll get there in time

[Vanderscamp]

i'm finding this no face / pooky thing to be kinda boring and circular. i think they're most likely tvt tbh

I'm not getting a ton out of their recent posts.

What I'm still confused by is the reactions to it.
With the exception of bingle, who is hedging, basically everyone seems to be agreeing that what no case is saying is extremely reasonable and what pooky is saying is not.
But I've highlighted several examples of what I feel are things that it seems very unlikely that a town would actually believe, things like pooky saying that no face had no options other than to have pushed on pooky (and then digging deeper into that stance by talking about how he's great at defending townNor), him swapping me from "pretty sure town" to most likely mafia after no case for the reason that I'm not unwilling to vote outside of the small pool, and the post "when I get lynched is it still not aggressive?" which caused me to feel sick IRL.

I think at best, pooky is a town who has just lost his mind after being called a PoE kill by someone, but I think it's a lot more likely that these extremely strange arguments from someone who apparently enjoys 1 vs 1ing people as scum are not being made in good faith.

[Infinity 324]

i don't really explicilty scumread anyone in that group which like i said i'm aware is a problem but i'm working on it

Don't have a problem with that, if this is the case no face v pooky is actually not that likely to be TvT fypov though

[Menalque]

Okay, I was wondering if it might be for NAI reasons related to irl which is why I haven’t been pushing the issue

I think knowing you have a 33% chance of being scum and I think probably practical chance of 50% might also be affecting things

[Menalque]

I think also it bothers me that the group of 3 exists as it is?

It strikes me as a really weird grouping and it seems ~somewhat more likely that you would willingly be in that group as it is than that infinity or bingle would

I also think that if we figure out why the group of 3 is the 3 it is that probably solves the game just about

[Infinity 324]

Hmm I think if hectic was scum he would probably have started TRing pooky by this point. When pooky flips town people are likely to come after him, and he had a chance to flip his read. He's too locked in as scum

[Menalque]

VOTE: vanders

[Ydrasse]

*pops head in*

[Menalque]

When pooky flips town people are likely to come after him

But are they tho, practically speaking ?

[Vanderscamp]

VOTE: vanders

What part of my pooky arguments do you disagree on?

[skitter30]

@infinity/vander:
my mind is very like gamestate-oriented more than mechanics-oriented and the way they're arguing and how people are interacting with it kinda feels tvt to me - the pooky wagon grew super fast (and from my pov at least i know it's scum fueled because both jingle and infinity were on it) and once mena punctured it the tvt became a Giant Thing that's just kinda ~there~ but other than like vander nobody's really engaging with it and neither side is gaining traction - if it were tvs i imagine that the t half would be going somewhere but, like, that's not really happening. scum are just kinda content to let it be a thing that's taking up space but dont' really doing anything abt it otherwise

if there's scum in the pair i think it's more likely hectic than pooky but i wouldn't feel very good betting on either rn, at least part of which is that i dont' think i've had a very good grasp on what's been going on; my apologies for being absent but i think that all of my extra vla stuff is over for now

@mena: i haven't the foggiest idea what the thought process was behind the 3p and i can't imagine why i'd make this group either. i also will not vote vander today and i dont know why you're scumreading him. he's literally flipbait and doesn't really have a scumpartner imo

[Infinity 324]

When pooky flips town people are likely to come after him

But are they tho, practically speaking ?

Actually, everyone in the 3p group is pretty much, pending skitt rethinking her reads. Maybe skitt votes norwee but yeah. I think a lot of people will come after hectic pretty soon if pooky flips town just based on PoE, since no one really suspects you or ydrasse and not too many people want norwee either? Vander is like the only mislim scum!hectic doesn't have to really push for

[Vanderscamp]

There's a bit to respond to there but it blows my mind how I could be considered flipbait and not pooky, given what each of us has said this game

[Ydrasse]

@infinity/vander:
my mind is very like gamestate-oriented more than mechanics-oriented and the way they're arguing and how people are interacting with it kinda feels tvt to me - the pooky wagon grew super fast (and from my pov at least i know it's scum fueled because both jingle and infinity were on it) and once mena punctured it the tvt became a Giant Thing that's just kinda ~there~ but other than like vander nobody's really engaging with it and neither side is gaining traction - if it were tvs i imagine that the t half would be going somewhere but, like, that's not really happening.

scum are just kinda content to let it be a thing that's taking up space but dont' really doing anything abt it otherwise

if there's scum in the pair i think it's more likely hectic than pooky but i wouldn't feel very good betting on either rn, at least part of which is that i dont' think i've had a very good grasp on what's been going on; my apologies for being absent but i think that all of my extra vla stuff is over for now

@mena: i haven't the foggiest idea what the thought process was behind the 3p and i can't imagine why i'd make this group either. i also will not vote vander today and i dont know why you're scumreading him. he's literally flipbait and doesn't really have a scumpartner imo

skitt can u explain this for me?

i don't get why you think this because like... in theory if one of them is scum like, there's not really a lot of motivation much elsewhere that can get it going? like there's the scum in the 3p which... i think can't really do much without it being pretty overt right?

idk if im missing something simple but i dont think? in this game that scum can like... afford to do anything abt it to help their scumpartner if they wanted it? if that is tvs that is which, uh, idk, i don't think hectic is the scum in it personally :< (his frustration this game has made him all the more townier to me, honestly)

i still feel weird about pooky's replies, like something isn't clicking for me and maybe i'm tunneled but everytime i read his replies i feel like he's... idk... misrepping hectic a lil bit, even if it's not big things, but it just feels like he missed the fundamental beginning of why he was being voted and now it spiraled and yeah

[Vanderscamp]

@infinity/vander:
my mind is very like gamestate-oriented more than mechanics-oriented and the way they're arguing and how people are interacting with it kinda feels tvt to me - the pooky wagon grew super fast (and from my pov at least i know it's scum fueled because both jingle and infinity were on it) and once mena punctured it the tvt became a Giant Thing that's just kinda ~there~ but other than like vander nobody's really engaging with it and neither side is gaining traction - if it were tvs i imagine that the t half would be going somewhere but, like, that's not really happening. scum are just kinda content to let it be a thing that's taking up space but dont' really doing anything abt it otherwise

if there's scum in the pair i think it's more likely hectic than pooky but i wouldn't feel very good betting on either rn, at least part of which is that i dont' think i've had a very good grasp on what's been going on; my apologies for being absent but i think that all of my extra vla stuff is over for now

@mena: i haven't the foggiest idea what the thought process was behind the 3p and i can't imagine why i'd make this group either. i also will not vote vander today and i dont know why you're scumreading him. he's literally flipbait and doesn't really have a scumpartner imo

I guess the thing I most want to respond to is your thoughts on how the wagon formed.

Bingle said pooky was his top scum and voted him, but then immediately unvoted him when the wagon hit E-1.
Do you think that is inconsistent with them being partners? Because I expect scum to be fairly likely to have bussed early in this set given what everyone was saying, and I have trouble believing bingle believes the stuff he is saying about Pooky's responses to no case being valid.
Like, even in the world where I am super super wrong and pooky is town and no case is scum, pooky is obviously correct about no case's intentions, but even then there has been a bunch of what pooky has been saying about the situation that is still definitely not correct.

I also think infinity voted pooky only briefly, but I think infinity is town so I'm not as worried about this.


I'm also not sure why when the fact that momentum on both candidates has died down dramatically since the momentum has been increasing is a sign of it being town on town. Sure, if it was t vs s, mafia are sort of incentivized to push the t, but aren't they also incentivized to not solve it at all?
Why wouldn't they want to flip pooky (or no case) and make the other one (and me if pooky is flipped) look really bad?