Mini Normal 2201 | Silly Stock Photos | Endgame

[LlamaFluff]

Beautiful day...

seriously tho, flipping anya at this point gives a +average chance of hitting scum imo lol

I think this is true early but I dont think its for the same thing you do

Vote Anya

Continued extension of RVS just moving around doing nothing is anti-town at best. Seems pretty clear that at least a third of the game already thinks this is true (RVS is over) so we should just start being productive. Coming from an era where deadline was normally n2+1 this is an absurdly fast game so lets start going.

[LlamaFluff]

I’m in a good mood today, despite feeling a bit sick.

Hello everyone!

Let’s have fun.

VOTE: Datisi

RVS is over.

My vote is serious. Datisi, Umlaut, Iconium and maybe Samantha also appear to have serious votes out.

[LlamaFluff]

Btw I’m not going to pretend to have reads on any of you. I trust my gut but c’mon now I can’t read energy in the first few posts.

What about motivations?

What do you think about Datisi comments on Samantha?
What about Umulat sheeping that?
What about my statement that Anya is ignoring legitimate content to just keep messing around?

Its early but there are things happening. If I have to point them out and try to create order I absolutely will. The more disjointed we are the harder it is to clearly read motivation of players because it becomes increasingly difficult to note when someone makes a move that doesnt align with expectations.

[LlamaFluff]

If you still want an answer - I don’t think much of anything about the things you’ve pointed out. Without much broader context, they could all be nothing burgers. And no being disjointed isn’t necessarily bad. At least not in the early part of the game. It becomes easier to see who has an agenda and who doesn’t when the Town is all over the place actually.

Well really anything can come to nothing. I also entirely disagree that its easier to see who has an agenda when things are all over the place instead of when they start becoming a little more concentrated where you can tell who suddenly makes shifts that dont fully line up with what their thought process has been, who is willing to take a stance and for what reasons, who shows hesitancy to make a decision, and what other interactions that are potentially motivated by reads, alignment, self-preservation, etc. Its an information game. I intend to get as much information as possible.

[LlamaFluff]

This is a reason to vote someone?

always a reason to vote someone

So you are voting me because you dont like that I have more of a no-nonsense playstyle?

[LlamaFluff]

Okay now I really like the Anya vote. She just ignored a ton of content and threw out a pretty heavy OMGUS/Sheeping vote at the same time.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama is scum because the way he went about trying to push the game out of RVS felt overdone and performative

Its pretty well established that I dont like RVS. Its the boring and unproductive part of the game to me so I want it to end ASAP so we can actually focus on doing stuff. Are you saying it would have been better if I just voted Anya and then kicked back and waited for everyone else to decide the "not doing much" portion of the game was over?

[LlamaFluff]

Depends on how you did it, you also could've said essentially the same thing but worded differently and I would've found it towny. That's how I scumhunt

So... im being too authoritarian? You really arent explaining anything that I can actually answer. Essentially you are just saying "because gut"

So you are voting me because you dont like that I have more of a no-nonsense playstyle?

i think mafia can hide behind rvs but i think u could be doing the opposite

Im hiding behind ending the RVS by being assertive in trying to end RVS? It almost feels like you are saying "He is scum because he is trying to do town things" which is pretty much exactly what town does... unless you are trying to argue that as town I would have just well enough alone and let RVS continue? This feels more like you are attacking my game theory and playstyle than you are saying what I am doing is scummy.

[LlamaFluff]

llama, for someone so determined to get us moving out of rvs and into The Serious Game... you've expressed one (1) read so far.

Not many other reads worth perusing and nothing is overly strong. Trying to get a handle on people voting me, but so far it seems more of playstyle differences which is more annoying than a heavy tell either way (from Infinity at least). I think the part that bugs me the most about people voting me is that there is someone backing me up and agreeing with my statement (mom) who are being ignored by my voters. Your push on Samantha is a bit unusual to me because you seem to be focusing on if its serious as opposed to why they are making the statement, which would shake out your original question to start. Lack of any solid town (EZ might actually be closest) read this early is a little frustrating, but it is where I am.

Llama is scum because the way he went about trying to push the game out of RVS felt overdone and performative

Its pretty well established that I dont like RVS. Its the boring and unproductive part of the game to me so I want it to end ASAP so we can actually focus on doing stuff. Are you saying it would have been better if I just voted Anya and then kicked back and waited for everyone else to decide the "not doing much" portion of the game was over?

i dont really see how goofing off in the beginning of the game is really that harmful, theres 10 days, we can spare some time to get situated and greet everyone before we play properly

Im old (probably twice as old as someone in this game) and a side effect of that is occasionally work/other life commitments destroy any semblance of free time for a day or two. 10 days is nothing as far as im concerned being from the era of D1 normally being three weeks.

[LlamaFluff]

Your push on Samantha is a bit unusual to me because you seem to be focusing on if its serious as opposed to why they are making the statement, which would shake out your original question to start.

there is no point asking someone to elaborate on a claim they are making if they can back out from it with "it was rvs i was memeing".

I think they could have done, and you give them a little more wiggle room too, the same with your question as if they say "yes its serious" the follow-up is obvious.

Im old (probably twice as old as someone in this game) and a side effect of that is occasionally work/other life commitments destroy any semblance of free time for a day or two. 10 days is nothing as far as im concerned being from the era of D1 normally being three weeks.

ive played games with three week day phases and ive played games with 72 hour day phases, and im of the opinion rvs is objectively beneficial to town

content doesnt appear out of thin air, rvs is a necessity

True, but when a certain amount of content has appeared RVS starts becoming an anchor. To me that cutoff point is when you have a few people who are obviously making serious votes.

It's not playstyle it's gut

Wait, llama, if you think I'm voting you for your playstyle, why isn't that AI? It's at least an objectively bad reason for voting

AI is not a term im familiar with. If you see X as always scummy, it might not be a solid reason for a vote to me, but if you believe X is true even if I dont agree it still doesnt change your belief in X is true and something that you would do as town, or at least be forced to fake as scum. Maybe see something like Miller claim theory (if they should claim D1, if they should be gotten rid of immediately, etc). Thats not something that is going to change depending on alignment. Theory is a constant over games, when someone actually breaks from a theory they have in the past bought into thats more of a red flag that you disagreeing with that theory.

[LlamaFluff]

llama, for someone so determined to get us moving out of rvs and into The Serious Game... you've expressed one (1) read so far.

I really hate this post

spicey. tell me more.

It reads as disingenuous. How many reads do you think someone has to express to qualify as serious?

there is not a fixed number. but if someone's ratio of "expressing reads" to "telling other people to start getting serious and express their reads" is too small, it can mean that the person doesn't actually care about forming reads or moving the game forward, they just really *really* want to give the appearance of doing so.

Im not going to try to inflate the strength of minor reads that serve no purpose because that likely just creates noise. If I want to move a wagon, or if I want to keep a wagon off someone it will become very clear very quickly. Especially the latter part as I tend to be almost more aggressive when it comes to stopping wagons of strong town reads than to push one of mine.

@Anya - Why Luca? They have only one post. Are you saying everyone active you have some level of town read on?
@Andre - You say you were looking for a reaction from Samantha. What did it tell you?
@Dati - Do you see a difference in what Infinity is doing to you vs what Mom has been doing for me?

[LlamaFluff]

yeah Luca's post felt a little off like he's a skydiver who's decided to go scuba diving

This might be why I hate RVS I dont get/cant read jokes vs being slightly serious. Lets try this...

Is your vote on him influenced by your read on Dati?

[LlamaFluff]

yeah Luca's post felt a little off like he's a skydiver who's decided to go scuba diving

This might be why I hate RVS I dont get/cant read jokes vs being slightly serious. Lets try this...

Is your vote on him influenced by your read on Dati?

no.... why would it be?

Dat seems like he's trying to move things forward so i'm happy for him though

Because I dont see how there is any sort of a read from a RVS post, especially with context Dati provided. Was wondering if it had anything to do with the "who" the vote was cast for since that was all I saw as any sort of connective line and you appear to have a strong town read there.

@Infinity - Why unvote there?

[LlamaFluff]

but how would my read on Dati affect my read on Luca when Dati hadn't made any posts at the time Luca voted?

Luca had a random vote on Dati. Was wondering if that was the driving force behind the move there.

I think I need to step back and think about things for a bit.

[LlamaFluff]

unvote

I just need to reread this tomorrow because its pretty clear Anya (and possibly a few other players) arent actually reading anything and maybe this just means I need to look at this in a new light. Also need to find my solid town read which I still am not sure of which should help a bit, however long that may take to correctly pin down.

[LlamaFluff]

Will try to get caught up during lunch today, but fair warning Wednesday and Thursday are typically my worst access days of the week due to additional after-work activity commitments. Should at least be able to stay read up though, even if I cant get in as much content as I want. Probably doesnt help that most activity in this game seems to be in my off hours.

[LlamaFluff]

I can do this

Vote Icon

They are heavily misinterpreting Rathe (who has recently made it even more clear their thoughts) but those things happen. I was thinking the same thing for quite a while and now think I understand his theory on what happened early game. What bugs me more are two primary thing

1) Icon seems to just ignore that Rathe walked back the vote and agreed with an earlier statement of mine. While that would not really excuse a strong tell, it seems like a pretty major fact to ignore. If you just iso Icon, you would be pretty confident that Rathe is either heavily pushing my wagon, if not at least on it. Instead he is calling me town, which again was walked back under very little if any pressure. Really walked back just on me trying to figure out his thought process and motivations. It seems like the current location of Rathe's vote has zero impact on the case as far as Icon is concerned, which in turn is concerning itself. It feels more like a PR based read as it ignores things and seems overconfident. Since it cant be (as im pretty sure "Day" isnt a normal modifier)... becomes a bit two weak for me.

2) This entire thing is based on a misinterpretation (Rathe has recently confirmed such) and the massive back and forth between Icon and Dats could be solved by just asking a very direct question to Rathe. As already stated, I think its just an implied pronoun that caused all of this. Rathe took it one way, Icon and I took it the other way. Instead of flooding a few pages with an increasingly hostile and difficult to read back and forth, ask the question. It feels stubborn, by everyone involved in that. Stubborn is increasingly difficult to read because it turns into a back and forth noise loop that no one wants to deal with.

It just feels like Icon decided im town (when as Rathe pointed out "I wouldn't give too many townie points just for *trying to get serious*") and has been acting accordingly.

The fact that all of this has gone so far, especially since all that really needed to happen was a clear conversation with Rathe, is very annoying. If everyone involved in this exchange is town, im going be unhappy because it just means we added a ton of noise that gave us nothing.

@OW - In light of your original "This is all TvTvT" read, can you give a read on the Icon-Dats-Raeth thing and explain how it differs (if it does)?
@Luca - What is your read on Dats?
@Samantha - Does the Icon/Dats exchange change your reads on Raeth?
@Dats - Read on Samantha?

If they havent everyone should give a read of that big Icon-Dats-Raeth exchange. Im a little confused after how that just dominated so many pages how few are actually commenting on it.

[LlamaFluff]

This is a bad wagon and has all my SRs on it (umlaut, samantha, llama)

So does this trump your comment of being okay with an Icon vote if Dats is insistent over it?

[LlamaFluff]

Apparently most players in this game are active when im asleep or unavailable at work. Will try and get read up tonight but I dont really have much time today. More likely I get fully caught up after work Friday.

[LlamaFluff]

@Icon

In light on this post

-rathe: i think mafia can hide behind RVS
-rathe: sees llama push out of RVS
-also rathe: i think it's a townie thing to push out of RVS
-also also rathe: yeah llama is scum because he pushes out of RVS

this is pretty much it yeah

yes
yes
no
yes i said mafia can hide behind rvs but instead of doing that i felt like llama was doing the opposite
this was before i read 110
y is this hard to understand

Does that change your read on Rathe at all? What happened to that push? It seems like you just dropped it after multiple people seemed to sheep my reasoning that you are heavily misinterpreting him and just accused me, jump on Umulat for... sheeping me and "knowing better"?

@umulat - It looks like Icon voted you because they are claiming you should know their meta. Do you feel you can read them?
@OW - You say the wagon of Icon is because of "Town looking at a bad case"... what does that mean with respect to players voting Icon?
@Andre - Can you give thoughts on alignments and wagons of Icon, Umulat and OW?
@Luca - Thoughts on Icon? You seem to agree that he was at least misunderstanding Rathe but never really followed anything up there.

[LlamaFluff]

llama what do you think of otherworlder datisi and luca

Part of my OW read will be determined by his answer to my question. If Dats and Infinity are town though he is either very passive scum or gets some town points.

Dats is pretty null, I sort of lean to opposite of Icon though (If Dats is scum Icon immediately becomes one of my strongest town reads due to his "If I was scum that would be an easy spot to park my vote" implies Icon-town in a way that isnt typically the way town approaches the game).

Luca I have no idea on. Their insight into the Icon-Dats exchange seems to be correct though which at least makes me want for them to contribute more instead of trying to figure out their alignment through reads on others.

[LlamaFluff]

(If Dats is scum Icon immediately becomes one of my strongest town reads due to his "If I was scum that would be an easy spot to park my vote" implies Icon-town in a way that isnt typically the way town approaches the game)

i never said that? like i said the exact opposite, even if i were scum, i sure as hell wouldn't park my vote on ico for the reasoning i'd provided, because that all but locks me into a 1v1 with him for the rest of the game.

Sorry. Reading that back I decided to just really warp that one in my head somehow. I think it still ultimately doesnt impact if you are scum Icon is town though, and actually might even strengthen that.

[LlamaFluff]

and actually might even strengthen that.

could you eli5? i didn't really get how you're getting to ico!town from scum!me originally, and don't quite get it here either.

You are using a term I dont understand again so im going to guess on what you are saying...

its unnecessarily complicating things to not coast on icons wagon, for scum!you that is

i never voted ico. also, if scum!me decided to ~coast~ on ico's wagon here with the reasoning i've already given, ico'd probably see that as close to a scumclaim from me, and while he is generally suspected right now, trust me that is a 1v1 scum!me has NO desire to start

If you are scum I think this whole thing make Icon town. First it immediately implies that if you are scum, you would not be voting Icon out the gate to me in a way that seems to concentrate not on reads but instead the reaction of Icon, which you say would turn him against you. Being afraid of voting another player, who has a wagon forming on them, who you have been in conflict with and seemed to read as scum, because you think they will target you, to me reads as how scum would approach a wagon. Concentrating more and being concerned about reactions rather than reads. The response to EZ seems to me if you were town would be "I am not on Icon because of X reads" and not more of "I am not on Icon because he would see it as a scumclaim from me".

Maybe im complicating it, but what I read your thought process there feels like what I would take as scum if I was afraid a vote would put heat on me. As opposed to town which is "Im not voting them here because of <other read>" or "If they vote me who cares, they still are scum".

[LlamaFluff]

fair warning I'm not going to be able to reply to anything after this because my head is pounding and I'm gonna pass out after posting this and something else in another thread.

anyways VOTE: Samantha

@OW - You say the wagon of Icon is because of "Town looking at a bad case"... what does that mean with respect to players voting Icon?

I think most of the players voting Ico (with exception of Samantha) are town voting town because Ico's pushes and points against both Rathe and Datisi were rather ill-founded and in somewhat poor faith. It's understandable that they vote that but I personally think Ico's stuff there had very little agenda behind it. The exception being Samantha who's vote and subsequent interaction looked very much like opportunistic scum.

So is it right to say that you are operating primarily based on town reads and not scum reads?

[LlamaFluff]

not sure if we understand each other (i could be misreading your response here as well), so i'll clarify.

i am not voting iconeum because i think he's town.

i said this back at the bottom of 434. also i never read him as scum this game, me "being in conflict" with him does not equal a scumread. (there's a *lot* of history here.)

my conversation with zoomer there was started because of this part of 497:

datisi - his reactions to icon pushing rathe were very genuine and his motivations seem townie,

don't see scum!datisi being the white knight for icon

this is a bad reason to townread me. in this universe, where i am town, i am not voting iconeum because i townread him. he's saying he thought scum!me would be voting him / on his wagon because it's easy. i'm saying no,

if i were scum

, i would not be voting iconeum either, because i'm decently sure scum!me would end up getting killed for doing that. since the start, the whole conversation with zoomer was built on the premise of "if i were scum here". that's why my responses to zoomer are talking from scum!me's perspective.

does this *actually* imply town!icon if i flip scum? i guess i can see how someone from the outside might think that. but also /shrug i'm town so.

It might be that we have different ways of approaching the game. If it was very unclear of your read of Icon your response makes a little bit more sense, but with what you noted and the fact that you voted Umulat over Icon means that isnt an unknown. Basically yes, it is clear you have Icon as town. Usually when I get pushed into having to approach things from a "what would I have done as scum" scenario I need to go back and read again because I dont know and am not thinking about it, and its very hard to just naturally inject that into a conversation because it involves building up an entirely new thought process. It also is just primarily a lot of WIFOM

Maybe the oddest part is that you even cared much about being town read and thats throwing me off. If someone does that to me for reasons I think arent the best I note it, but unless I feel they have scum-motivations for that move really wont react much because if im being town read, worst case its scum giving up a little bit of power to me. Again I think it loops back to more of our initial back and forth, where addressing this to me is "you are wrong because my reads dont back that up, even as scum why would I do that" as opposed to you are taking more of a "you are wrong because here is my scum thought process" which is far more unnatural to me.

I think this is just getting into a theory argument though over something that doesnt make much sense because if you are scum, this is just going to be a headache for everyone else to go through if you go and Icon is alive.

[LlamaFluff]

ready to reveal your read on outworld?

I lean town on him because if he is scum, I think they are being very aggressive in limiting the number of players who they can vote and the logic behind it flows pretty well. He is calling me town, you town, Infinity town, Icon town, Umulat town and EZ town. With the exception of maybe Samantha, thats being against just about every wagon/viable wagon. If Samantha is scum, I think OW goes solidly into the town bucket. The same thing applies if you, me and Icon are town. Feels more like a towntell to see that type of an exchange and just write it all off as a positive. That and his wagon with the exception of EZ are all at best null reads for me.

[LlamaFluff]

how many of the wagoned were calling him mafia

What wagon? There have been multiple.

[LlamaFluff]

how many of the wagoned were calling him mafia

So you are trying to say he is calling people who are getting votes town because they are not calling him scum? He also made most of his town statements before getting any votes. I think Icon has been the only person who has got votes so far that was calling OW town too.

[LlamaFluff]

Well lets solve this activity issue then...

what's up my mafiascum

Why are you voting Dats? Why were you voting OW?

it feels like 5 people are playing this game

Why are you voting OW? Apart from OW do you think anyone voting you is scum?

thats what happens when everyone collectively conspires to be v/la on the weekend

Why are you voting OW?

[LlamaFluff]

their progression on samantha feels fake also

Which part? The biggest surprise to me from their Samantha vote was that they actually werent voting there to start.

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: Datisi

you're not 5

why would anyone vote Dats? he's really obvious town

No clue. None at all.

[LlamaFluff]

He is calling [llama] town, [datisi] town, Infinity town, Icon town, Umulat town and EZ town. With the exception of maybe Samantha, thats being against just about every wagon/viable wagon.

err... what? iconeum and umlaut are ~viable wagons, i'll give you that. but other than the early hiccup, nobody is currently voting you, i don't think anyone is seriously scumreading infinity, i don't remember anyone saying they scumread zoomer, and the only person calling me scum is samantha, who i'm not even sure is serious or not about it. in what world are these names "every viable wagon"? they seem more like consensus reads than anything...

and you still satisfied with your ico vote?

They are pretty much every viable wagon though without him going through and trying to start a push on a new player. My point was he pretty much was positioning himself to, outside of a samantha vote, have to create a new wagon on his own on someone who was getting little attention. That feels more like a town move than a scum move who like to keep options open.

Im less sure on Icon. Trying to see if this is more town who is locked into stubbornness regarding Rathe or if its more of scum doubling down. Either way its probably at least half Icon believing in their reasoning, even if they are scum. Him ignoring everyone but Umulat is odd too. Right now I want to see what his current read on Rathe is.

[LlamaFluff]

He's started off the game making big moves to advance the game state, and then he just... stopped. Hes making easy pushes, and I don't even think he has made an original push yet which is pretty concerninf

Im not going to make pushes just to be contrarian. What would a "hard" push be either way? You?

Either way I dont even have much in the form of scumreads at this point. Most people are frustrating/null or just are varying levels of town.

Im less sure on Icon. Trying to see if this is more town who is locked into stubbornness regarding Rathe or if its more of scum doubling down. Either way its probably at least half Icon believing in their reasoning, even if they are scum. Him ignoring everyone but Umulat is odd too. Right now I want to see what his current read on Rathe is.

hes not voting me at least

If he was I would be in death tunnel mode. Still not thrilled that his reaction seems to be still in a "how dare you say me misinterpreting Rathe was anything but town misunderstanding him". Unless his claim is that as scum he would either not have made the same misinterpretation, or that he would have ignored it, the whole push ends up not being a tell. Really just trying to evaluate now as one of the biggest things bothering me is how little I like the OW wagon it feels wrong but I cant put my finger on what part of it feels so wrong.

[LlamaFluff]

'town might do x' isnt a defense

Its not. If anything im more concerned about Icons move of "of course town can misinterpret what Rathe was saying" and then link that to "town would obviously not see what I was doing as malicious and instead see it as town misinterpretation, my wagon is sus"

Really just trying to evaluate now as one of the biggest things bothering me is how little I like the OW wagon it feels wrong but I cant put my finger on what part of it feels so wrong.

samantha

I would absolutely go there instead of OW if it came to it, but I think I just need to reread because its more of how the wagon formed, even if the voters are mostly players I at best just dont trust. There are way too many players with little to no content that I need to figure out how to deal with.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama do you have a read on me?

Somewhat. Similar to the OW read to me, if you are scum you are really backing yourself into a corner for what options you have (just with more of them but less explained town reads). Obviously I dont agree with your vote, or even the Umulat read from you that much, but scum tend to thrive on having options, not on limiting themselves. Following your logic is hard, but the overarching motivations seem more likely town driven.

[LlamaFluff]

Will try to read back up again tonight. Still feel I have too many townish and just null/annoyed reads.

[LlamaFluff]

Unvote

Did a quick reread... still not doing great with finding scum reads, but have the following four in different levels of "willing to defend" town: OW, Rathe, Infinity, EZ

[LlamaFluff]

what brought you to that conclusion for outworlder

Pretty sure ive said that already but its based on main points of

First OW is being pretty aggressive in calling players town, especially in scenarios where there is a lot going on. Think that early exchange where he came out of it with me, Dats and Inifity town. Later he essentially calls Icon town along with most of the players who are voting him (add Icon, Umulat and EZ to town reads). Im not sure how many scum, especially newer scum, back themselves into that type of a corner where seven different players are essentially off limits for them to vote halfway through the first day. Add it that most of the wagons or potential wagons are on players in that group as well and I think you have town. Scumhunting by town reading always feels like a town tell with newer players.

Second is his wagon which just throws up red flags for me. Luca is voting him because his reads are "fake" (which I obviously disagree with) and not expanding on what reads are fake/why they think so. I have no idea why Anya is voting him. EZ at least has the most reasoning (who has moved on too), but I think it takes a few timelines out of context. Then you are voting him on meta (?). Its a town read, and players that I have no read to slight scum reads on. Heading up a wagon that seems to have little if any actual reason to exist.

So yeah. OW is town for the way he is approaching the game and a very questionable push on him from others. Im calling OW town right now.

[LlamaFluff]

Luca is voting him because his reads are "fake" (which I obviously disagree with) and not expanding on what reads are fake/why they think so.

I've expanded on this at least twice now, so you're clearly not paying attention

You cant just say "its fake"... it needs reasoning. You seem to basically just call him scum because you think that an experienced player wouldnt mind getting into an exchange early so he has to be faking the read. I want the motivations that show why you think its scum faking a read instead of town who just falls into the read.

The TvTvT thing seemed fake to me, as well as TR'ing Datisi for the same thing he SR Rathe for - it seemed to me like he's trying to buddy the potential power players while taking advantage of the lhf.

So why is this scum-OW trying to buddy up to experienced player instead of town-OW reading an exchange as all town? Also he pretty quickly corrected the Rathe thing, so is that still a tell? I kind of read the opposite when its that sort of timeline.

Scum know who is town and will often TMI townreads. I remember playing with scum!A50 once who literally TR everyone in the game and refused to scumread anyone. It isn't a towntell, especially D1 when reads can easily be reversed later on. There's also been nothing 'aggressive' about Outworld's play.

Aggressive as in making way more reads than would ever be expected. I dont see scum writing off that many players so fast. Part of the point of me coming out and saying I am willing to defend so many players is the hope it shakes stuff out tell wise so I can start getting solid scumreads instead of just reading players who I think are town. Fully disagree with being vocal with town reads isnt a tell either. When I get a strong one I will near a point where I am willing to expend more capital to keep them alive than to push strongest scum reads.

@Samantha - Why do you think scum is more likely to call players town than town is to call players town?

[LlamaFluff]

For the third time, it makes no sense to SR someone for doing something and TR someone else for the exact same thing. I questioned him about this but he has avoided explaining this further. It leads me to believe he is faking the read, and it's a very convenient read indeed. TvT in general is such an easy thing to scum to just throw out there to look as though they've done some analysis. It doesn't ring true in this instance

Maybe this is where the split comes... do you think his TvTvT read is correct?

He corrected the Rathe thing when it was convenient to do so - when Rathe!scum was no longer a popular read. He gets no townie points for this

Timeline weakens this point. OW was inactive for pretty much an entire day and then came back and corrected. After you vote him his next post is backing off.

He's not writing them off so fast? Do you think he's locktowning them for the rest of the game or something?

Literally the easiest thing for scum to do is hand out townreads. It makes friends instead of enemies, makes them look as though they are solving and allows them to follow the lead rather than need to push the initiative themselves. I'm not saying Town don't TR players a lot as well, but this isn't a reason to TR someone in of itself. I already gave you the example of scum!A50 who refused to SR anyone. Nothing Outworld has done so far has truck me as Townie or natural in any way.

One example of a different player who did something once doesnt really help. Granted it depends from player to player (its probably null at best for me) but typically I like it when players lock down town reads, especially if I can follow the logic that gets them there. OW basically can vote Samantha, or try and push a brand new wagon. Not sure many scum lock themselves into that few options day one. Turning around on anyone else probably raises suspicion to varying extents.

[LlamaFluff]

Starting to get in work issues. Two projects in early construction so dealing with contractor question/submittal hell and just got back more comments on an O&M Manual so my "try and read during breaks/lunch" time is fully gone.

He can narrow down the mislim pool and sit on a vanity wagon, while letting town bury themselves

Not all scum actively push mislims. He’s sitting back, biding his time and trying to stay friendly with the vast majority

This only holds true if you think every other wagon is on town (umulat/Samantha primarily). Otherwise isnt not caring what happens with direction of the day a towntell if you think its a TvS or SvS type scenario? I can understand your logic, but only if you think that the only players in danger are town. Otherwise that type of play is very risky because if scum goes he will take a lot of flack.

llama reading back you asked for my reasons on why i voted OW and never responded to it at all, can you tell me why

Didnt see a need to at the time.

The point that keeps getting brought up of "backpedaling" makes no sense either if you iso him in the context you give to me. Its pretty much consecutive posts where he voted and then backed off. Enough stuff had happened that no longer holding a read makes sense as town there, unless you mean to argue that as town he would have kept the vote on. Your second point only makes any sense to me if you also think Dats/Luca are scum, and your third I have already said I see as a towntell.

[LlamaFluff]

When I'm scum having trouble engaging in the game, I like to spend a lot of time talking about something I know is true, like why a townie is town

I just love town reads. Granted its probably not all that much of an alignment tell, but when I get a solid one I basically trust it more than scum reads. This feels like the type of game to be most effective I will need two get lucky enough to get a town read im willing to stake everything on.

[LlamaFluff]

I swear you all frustrate me. Luca is saying "please dont hammer" and isnt unvoting to be safe. Andres is declaring intent to hammer while being multiple pages behind.

Just why? Is this what the site is now?

[LlamaFluff]

And so on. You shouldn’t assume that because I’m responding to things in previous pages that I’m not necessarily up to speed on the latest set of posts.

Well if you claim intent to hammer and then post reads that arent up to date... im going to be unhappy even if you are actually rereading. It feels like this is a trap. Umulat-town rockets Luca up scum list.

[LlamaFluff]

I swear you all frustrate me.

Luca is saying "please dont hammer" and isnt unvoting to be safe.

Andres is declaring intent to hammer while being multiple pages behind.

Just why? Is this what the site is now?

Eh?

I'm voting Outworld, not Umlaut

Sorry. Thats what I get for trying to post not that sober and without my notes. For some reason thought you had moved.

[LlamaFluff]

@Luca - Andres read right now?

[LlamaFluff]

@Llama

And so on. You shouldn’t assume that because I’m responding to things in previous pages that I’m not necessarily up to speed on the latest set of posts.

Well if you claim intent to hammer and then post reads that arent up to date... im going to be unhappy even if you are actually rereading. It feels like this is a trap. Umulat-town rockets Luca up scum list.

wtf?

How did you come to that conclusion?

I already answered that. Between a mix of not having my notes and having been drinking I for some reason thought you had moved to Umulat.

[LlamaFluff]

So what does an Umlaut town flip mean then, Llama?

Not sure. I really dislike the fact that the only real counter (OW) has been something that I have been trying to tear down. Even if im wrong on OW I dont think that the Umlat wagon has this much of a lack of contention. Nothing has really got off the ground, so just gut starts saying given how little is actually being fought against this wagon that scum is fine with it going through. Only other option is Umulat is scum and rest of scum have no ability to influence what is happening, which D1 just is really unlikely.

Think best pool is probably some sort of Samantha/Icon/Andres/Anya group for scum at this point really. But im annoyed at not seeing anything I can think of pushing to protect a wagon that just feels wrong with this little time left in the day.

[LlamaFluff]

Only other option is Umulat is scum and rest of scum have no ability to influence what is happening, which D1 just is really unlikely.

I wouldn’t entirely discount the fact that Scum are feeling forced to bus their Partner and can’t find a good excuse to get off. But I can understand why you feel skepticism based on the fact that you don’t feel a lot of resistance to an execution. I would argue that OutWorldER being pushed somewhat aggressively after Umlaut begins to get closer and closer to execution is a form of resistance.

Thats also where my town read of OW comes in. I know im town so that just increases on my read that the Umulat wagon feels wrong unless scum is actually fine with a Umulat vote and is trying to use me to distract a bit by calling OW town. I just dont see scum bussing and there being basically zero alternative presented. Even if town is the one presenting the alternatives it seems too easy. If everyone is varying levels of fine with a push that usually means the push is bad. This just feels like a trap where everyone says "X is a decent pick" and then it ends up happening but flips town and everyone just spreads out the blame because thats what the consensus read was.

[LlamaFluff]

Is it too easy with no resistance though? I feel like you might be discounting all of the soft pushing that Luca is doing for OW and against Umlaut for example. Or the fact that esotericzoomer came out to say that they dislike both wagons and want Iconeum instead (who lean more Town to me than Umlaut). I thought those were interesting developments on the side.

Part of it probably is I know im town and have been the biggest anti-OW force. I know it wont ring true to everyone as me is I, but if town is shutting down the best chance of a counter thats something im taking into account

I can’t really say with any real certainty what Umlaut is going to flip to tell you the truth. But I also think that you haven’t really seen warring factions compromise here in a way that would suggest that the compromise is bad. At least not like I’ve seen in other games. But I grant you that there’s nothing that screams Scum about Umlaut either.

Are we saying the same thing with different conclusions? Apart from Umulat... who is likely to have been near picked off today? OW? Icon early? Obviously its not infallible, but im really uncomfortable when the biggest pushes against a wagon are people who are more not thrilled with it, but making no attempt to break it apart or provide a viable alternative. Unless stuff has really changed in the last few years, to me its a bit of a town tell the way things are currently breaking down.

[LlamaFluff]

My alternative is not getting executed today, and since they seem to be pushing for a way to defend Umlaut, I’m okay trying to see what happens I guess is how I would summarize my position.

Who is "They"

[LlamaFluff]

And also has it not crossed your mind that fmpov there is 0 resistance to this wagon? If Umlaut is scum and Outworld town then you'd think there'd be a little more interest there

I have made my views clear on both slots. I can’t say with any sort of conviction that either flips Scum. But I do have some TRs I’ve expressed and they’re mostly leaning on voting for Umlaut so I’m okay with it. I don’t know what else you want me to say.

So if Umulat is scum then where is the resistance? Do you think scum are just fine with him going or is this a spot where they cant control it? Thats whats bugging me. It seems very disjointed, and in this spot too easy. Its not a strong town read, but it feels all sorts of wrong.

[LlamaFluff]

@Luca - Can you rank Umulat, Andres and OW from scum to town for me?

[LlamaFluff]

Thats whats bugging me. It seems very disjointed, and in this spot too easy. Its not a strong town read, but it feels all sorts of wrong.

Listen I’ve been in exactly your shoes in the two previous games I played before this one. You have that hard to explain feeling that a wagon is developing on Town and you can’t quite point out the Scum but it feels wrong due to the game state. Maybe give another shot at looking at the wagon and explaining who you feel is pushing us in the wrong direction then. As you know I’ve expressed a SR of Anya for instance. I could understand if you’re skeptical because you think that’s a vote coming from Scum or you don’t understand why we’re (potentially) ending on the same wagon after I’ve expressed skepticism there. Do you think you can narrow down what’s causing your viewpoint?

I dont think there is necessarily malicious intent driving the wagon. I just see it as one of three things happening

1) Umulat is scum - scum in this case are fine with the wagon happening and making little attempt to stop it.

2) Umulat is scum - scum cant actually do anything to stop the wagon. Pretty much means scum is in the slots not on him that no one really cares about what they think

3) Umulat is town - scum are fine with this happening because they arent trying to stop it (or trying to use it against us D2)

I dont think Umulat is obviously town, I have my town group which is pretty obviously at this point. The fact that no one is trying to stop this wagon, and the biggest push against a counter is probably me, makes me completely cut out case 1. Which means scum is either fine with what is happening, or this is town. Both of those to me are thing where shaking things up at worst just will provide more information. Only problem is I dont think there is a way to shake it up because reads outside of Umulat for those not on him as so scattered, which make me loop back into scenario 3. It just feels like he will flip town based on how everything has happened. The longer this goes on the more likely it is im going to be goaded into defending him arent I?

[LlamaFluff]

umlaut is maybe a fine wagon but the problem is i dont scumread him
at worst hes null

i hopped off ow because llama made good points and i didnt feel comfortable joining hands with my two weakest townleans
and of course the umlaut wagon has icon

this is scumposting 101
umlaut probably buddy

how do you think umlaut is a fine wagon, if you don't scumread him?
if you nullread him, why is it a fine wagon?

didn't you JUST say it was a trash wagon? don't wanna go against popular opinion, do we?

you don't feel comfortable working with your townleans? Even if they are weak? Then why are they townleans?
And maybe i'm just hard-bussing my partner here?

If umlaut flips scum, this is a buddy

What if Umulat is town?

[LlamaFluff]

ok i thought of this yesterday and i wanted to give it a bit of time to see if it continues and it did continue so i'mma say it:

why is llama consistently complaining about the current wagons but trying to offer zero alternatives?

Because I cant see anything than can be an alternative which I can drag over the line. Its why I keep asking about reads. I try and make a push elsewhere I just get stuck in a situation where what I want to happen becomes the second choice and falls through. Thats why ive started more attacking that this feels convenient because I think the best chance of figuring out what is going wrong here is trying to pressure scum into backing up their attack instead of trying to create alternatives. Maybe I can get Adres/Luca wagons going a bit... but you are outright lying if you think that just doesnt solidify attention around Umulat as the D1 pick. I would rather trap scum into overextending themselves on Umulat.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama how do you read me right now?

Thats what im trying to figure out. If I could come up with a name that we both think is lean scum I would be willing to hard push it because that should help solve a ton, alternatives always are useful, I would take a D1 where town goes but the secondary wagon was scum over a D1 where scum does unanimously. I like get you arent too fond of umulat, but dont like that few of our other reads mesh (if you put Andres over Umulat I probably would have just voted there). Really I think my read of you wont even be impacted much by what Umulat flips. Maybe slight move in the opposite direct (him scum, you town or him town, you scum).

I dont think there is necessarily malicious intent driving the wago

what how

i'm the (one of the?) driving factor behind the umlaut wagon and you scumread me, and have been scumreading me for basicly the whole game

how do you come to a 'there doesn't have to be malicious intent' here?

Thats cute. You think you are a driving factor of the wagon.

Umulat seems to be mostly based on a large number of people just saying "yeah somewhat of a read" and has manifested itself there. No one is really pushing it hard, laying down a case, etc. Its just showing up. Its something that scum can easily appear on, and something that town can just pass off if they dont have time to delve into things. Its lazy, its not something that is being pushed through weak/faulty logic, its just there as a backup that we have over half the game agreeing to.

What if Umulat is town?

what if he's scum? i think we'd have a nice and clear path for day 2 then

if he's town… there is always day 2 to figure that out eh

but like, not flipping someone because they might be town is... ehhh yeah

Cute but no. You basically attack/threaten EZ fully based on the assumption that Umulat is scum. Question stands. What if he is town? What does that do to your EZ read?

[LlamaFluff]

luca do you have an opinion on zoomer saying both wagons are shit, then sayng umlaut wagon is maybe fine, then voting outworld?

this probably words it better then i did :p

So you are reading EZ as scum no matter what Umulat is or no?

[LlamaFluff]

luca do you have an opinion on zoomer saying both wagons are shit, then sayng umlaut wagon is maybe fine, then voting outworld?

this probably words it better then i did :p

So you are reading EZ as scum no matter what Umulat is or no?

so you think there is absolutely nothing wrong with zoomers progression there?

You are deflecting. Yes or no. Does the Umulat flip impact your EZ read?

llama has your read on me even evolved since early day 1?

Not a ton. I think you arent quite playing IIoA, but at least a "content" heavy reason to be read as town.

[LlamaFluff]

I have no idea what happened here in the last 24 hours and change. Ended up with no chance to read anything yesterday, and I am not going to get a chance to read up until close to deadline today without getting really lucky. If a few people can make quick summaries of what happened in last day or so that would be appreciated just incase my time is even more limited than expected.

[LlamaFluff]

Im still horribly slammed and probably wont get a chance to fully catchup until around this time tomorrow as I am actually trying to move some work around so I take an afternoon break to do this, go back to work and then record directly after that.

Anyway, I think my big takeaway from a quick read is OW is town. VT claim in this situation to me is a massive towntell, its not like there is no other wagon that things can shift off to. Its almost strong enough that if OW is scum, I think it forces Umulat to be scum because that would have probably been where all the attention went (note that only works one way, OW-town or Umulat-scum by itself doesnt massively impact the other). Unless site meta has massively shifted, a D1 PR claim unless it really makes no sense, gets countered, etc tends to live... VT not so much. So yeah, defense mode on OW activated based on the classic tells.

I know time is short, but I dont love any of the wagons right now. If I missed any important questions let me know because I just absolutely blasted through everything so I can get something in today. Luckily we got more time tomorrow now (even if deadline moved from when I tend to log off for the night to middle of the night). Might be able to cycle back around in 5ish hours tonight.

Spoiler:

VOTE: outworlder

if someone hammers without a claim they should get instalynched tomorrow

last mini normal I played mafia hammered a neighborizer before they could claim, cause they were inactive like outworlder/umlaut

This bothers me (emphasis mine). This *really* bothers me because of the implications of it all. There is a difference between saying "no one hammer without a claim" and "no one hammer or they get ran up tomorrow". The second part, which Samantha decided to use here, includes a direct implication that OW is town, which is a very odd one to make as that flies in the face of their reads. Samantha is approaching OW from two different midsets. The first is that OW is scum and needs to go today. The second one is anyone who hammers without a claim is scum, unless you believe that she is seriously suggesting that if someone hammers without a claim that they are scum regardless of what OW flips. The natural mindset is "that was risky, but lets see what happens" if someone hammers a scumread with no claim. Not "you did X that automatically means Y". Because if OW is scum... hammering without a claim wouldnt be a scumtell unless Samantha is seriously suggesting scum would just hammer a partner without letting them claim.

Vote Samantha

Lets see what type of last minute push we can make.

[LlamaFluff]

On lunch break. Might actually try and take a little time off at end of day so I can commit more time here and then just work a few hours tomorrow to make up that time.

Why is Infinity a wagon again? I would pretty much vote the entire game with very few exceptions instead of them based on current reads, and similarly would be willing to snap wagon just about anywhere else. Yeah we need to push something through today, but everyone seems way to comfortable with gamestate which just increases my thoughts that Infinity is something scum are fine with happening so they are town. Not claiming unless absolutely needed, less scum know the better.

[LlamaFluff]

complaining about the gamestate but not offering any alternatives, love to fucking see it

What do you want? Every time I call anyone scum like Samantha and everyone says im blowing stuff out of proportion. Give me a name that is not me, not Infinity and not OW and I will vote there. This game is very high noise and low content, which is something I cant really deal with well because it goes directly against my playstyle.

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: rathe

Fine. Lets go then.

Vote Rathe

Off work in about 3-4 hours so nothing else from me until then. If I stay up late I should be around to deadline, its Friday so sober no... around yes.

[LlamaFluff]

Should be back in about an hour, still trying to wrap a few final things up for work.

I guess ending the day on a modkill is the dumbest, funniest and most fitting for the way this game has gone.

I really want OW to come in and vote. Samantha doesnt have the worst vote ever, but I dont think its possible for that to even happen so its wasting precious time

@Koto - Didnt you just say Rathe was town earlier? Is that just a "I just will vote anyone" move?

[LlamaFluff]

oh right llama is not gonna want to vote this either bc of something i don't even remember anymore lol

Because I like his town read approach early. I also like the VT claim. Unless things have pretty drastically shifted meta wise in the last few years, D1 VT claims are VT at a higher than EV rate. Granted this is far more true in open setups, but if I have a town read of a player to start im not going to ignore it.

Play it safe and lim the VT claim

Pretty much this logic is why I think OW is town. Again scum can claim VT, but I tend to see scum claim PR instead VT at a higher rate than PR v VT exists.

Also the "Maybe Rathe wont be around" argument isnt strong. He has posted between current time and deadline for five straight real life days if my count is right (for me going back to Sunday evening with deadline being near midnight this Friday)

[LlamaFluff]

I want to think for a few minutes. Im not entirely sure the "of what" matters here.

[LlamaFluff]

Pretty sure that wasnt a hammer...

oh my god loyal fucking mailman

This would be almost a god tier role.

[LlamaFluff]

Still think that wasnt a hammer, just samantha already on the wagon voting him again, plus no real VC so ???. Also think that was a legit real claim (scum or town). I think VC went from 6 to still 6 though.

Even if he is scum it fucks our best Pr probably

Unless they have some other modifier isnt Mail just a glorified fruit vendor? Those pretty much in the old days were a "I can prove I did something that wasnt a kill" roles... increasing power late, not great early.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah they might be a loyal mailman, Llama

Have to go to work now. If this wasn’t a hammer then just lim Outworld I guess

That role is just ungodly powerful depending on how much mod lets you work with. Just an "I am Player. I am loyal mailman. Please bold a few words/phrase in your first post so I know you are confirmed town". I think that almost can be stronger than a regular cop.

[LlamaFluff]

Why are we posting "this is who scum should kill" lists, even if its based on an unknown flip? If you want to give conditional scum reads sure, but town reads make no sense here.

[LlamaFluff]

Why are we posting "this is who scum should kill" lists, even if its based on an unknown flip? If you want to give conditional scum reads sure, but town reads make no sense here.

I’m not sure who you’re talking about but I am definitely not giving lists of players Scum should kill like what.

You and Infinity are. Stop with the "these are all my town reads" part of the lists. Just stop at suspects. If you are town and Rathe was town, the more that scum know how that is going to effect reads moving into tomorrow with any sort of confidence the better it is for them. Even knowing who your strong scum reads are can be important. This is where we *limit* the information for them, not just show all the cards (unless something massive just changed and you feel a need to get it out). The more scum knows the smaller the chance is that they screw something up. This is quiet time when all unnecessary content dies.

[LlamaFluff]

Please stop talking.

i hate literally all of you, including myself <333

[LlamaFluff]

Well whatever... I still think this just runs the risk of feeding scum more info. But new GeoGuessr mode came out so that also is something im way too interested in right now.

[LlamaFluff]

Just trying to break down what happened D1

2071 - Say I will throw my support behind anyone but myself, Infinity and OW
2072 - Infinity votes Rathe
2075 - I vote Rathe
2076 - Samantha wants Koto over Rathe
2083 - SS votes Rathe over Koto
2130 - OW votes Rathe (Expresses dislike of all options)
2131 - Luca votes Rathe
2135 - Dats votes Rathe
2138 - Luca votes OW
2140 - Dats votes OW
2143 - Dats votes Rathe
2147 - Samantha votes OW
2149 - Dats votes OW
2154 - Anya votes Rathe (Expresses willingness to vote OW)
2157 - Umulat votes Rathe
2158 - Samantha dislikes Rathe wagon
2160 - Dats dislikes Rathe wagon
2161 - Luca dislikes Rathe wagon
2181 - Rathe claims
2183 - Samantha hammer

If OW is town like I still think he is, will try and visit that tonight and solve it either way, I think that actually is heavy townpoints for Luca/Dats because it means they would have been at the last minute trying to change from unknown town to VT. I think scum is a bit more willing to make that move in light on Rathe having been town.

First instinct is that Anya look the worst from everything that happened, but now need to read back more given more information.

[LlamaFluff]

If OW is town like I still think he is, will try and visit that tonight and solve it either way, I think that actually is heavy

townpoints

for Luca/Dats because it means they would have been at the last minute trying to change from unknown town to VT. I think

scum

is a bit more willing to make that move in light on Rathe having been town.

is one of these a typo or...?

Thats me rewording things too much again originally saying thought Anya was scum between the two sentences there then moving it to its own part. I think OW-Town means you two are more likely town because why risk deflecting a wagon that you would know be on town of unknown role onto VT to give up a claim and or PR death? I think scum is more likely to have not resisted it (or ignored it), even if in their minds their "what would town me do" might be saying fight against it. Anya fits that pretty well where their posting has an "I should have known better - oops" feeling behind it that to me isnt the right one.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Anya

Llama why do you think andres was killed?

Seems pretty baseless speculation. Only flips being off the wagon yesterday though is a little interesting though, but its something that reading into feels like throwing darts. Maybe we get right but it also can just be dumb luck or throw us way off. Its more of the confusing NKs that I think are the interesting ones to try and figure stuff out through.

Your thoughts on me saying Dats/Luca are probably town for trying to shift the wagon away from Rathe if OW is town?

[LlamaFluff]

Your thoughts on me saying Dats/Luca are probably town for trying to shift the wagon away from Rathe if OW is town?

And honestly... its even more town points if OW is scum. Im not seeing town trying to move a wagon from unclaimed town to VT death bait/scum partner. So yeah im calling those two even more town than OW at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

I mean dats and luca are independently my strongest TRs so I'm not really gonna argue with you, even though I would probably weight it less heavily than you.

I just dont see them making that move as scum. It has to be either join the wagon and plead deadline as a defense or just lurk away for the time being and let it reach a point of no return. Maybe if they were convinced Rathe would defend them the entire game, but as stood I dont get any scum motivation for the move. I know im still playing more two town reads. But I feel more comfortable staking my life on them than scum reads at this point.

[LlamaFluff]

I guess this is Townie given Infinity's wagon was competing with Llama's at that point?

yep

Exactly. Seems really odd for scum to try and call a possible bluff there. Infinity is more on the OW level of town to me where it just doesnt fit well. Cant see them have made that move as scum unless they were convinced it was best survival move, and im not sure where that read would have come from.

Luca/Dats town
Infinity/OW probably town

Maybe we just break this open with town reads.

[LlamaFluff]

jesus christ it's 6 hours away and we're still switching wagons?

I hate all three of these choices.

Of them, I hate Rathe lim the least

VOTE: Rathe

I really dislike how Outworld pops in here after not posting for ages, criticizes the table at large for having not decided a lim yet when he's done very little himself, and distances himself from taking responsibility for any of the lims on the table. He then disappears again and doesn't post again until D2

Llama, thoughts on this?

Its a little odd but not out of character read wise. They had already called me town and appeared to lean infinity town. I think if you want to try and say someone conveniently changed reads there are a few others who did a bigger swing. Sure it happened, but I think if you just read what OW had said to that point, out of the three it seems likely where the vote would go. Either he set that up alarmingly well, or regardless of alignment he followed expectations.

@Luca - It almost seems to be encroaching into the "Too dumb for scum" territory, but we probably could do worse.

[LlamaFluff]

why are we randomly voting for rathe again

infinity i agree improved and i wouldn't vote for them but llama still feels more like an alpaca and that deserves punishment

VOTE: Rathe

i got impatient

i can switch to bunny later if needed i'll be around

m

i think Rathe was probably town and i can't remember what made me vote for him and i'm disgusted at myself

something about 6 hours left and not ending the day in no justice, but i regret not being stubborn on voting alpaca

This is the type of progression that makes me pretty sure Rathe is town. He gets ignored for most of the day outside of the jokey high noise low content whirlwind that is Anya. Then the wagon on him starts (which I am second on and Anya has been voting me) which is seen as a not great thing by Anya. Then Anya votes Rathe which at this point the only other player that came from my wagon is Infinity who started it (timeline between first two post is ~3 hours). How this is not red flags for Anya-town I have no idea. If there was wagon 1 and wagon 2 and I wanted wagon 2 gone... then wagon 3 showed up which was basically no one from wagon 1... thats a bad thing.

Looping back to why im reading Dats/Luca as town too, this is the opposite reaction. Anya again based on wagon composition has no reason to vote Rathe, but to just gently nudge along OW at the same time (who had already voted Rathe) is wrong. I cant believe that town who thinks OW is a good vote has the thought process pass through their mind of "This VT who I am okay voting just jumped on a new wagon that mostly came from players who were voting someone I thought was scum to start".

Then it ends with Anya being immediately convinced that Rathe was town, and trying to wash her hands of it while casting blame to the exact same group that she was calling scum (and again was pushing the wagon) before she joined in. What Dats/Luca did is in line with how town approaches this sort of a split. What Anya did is how scum who sees an opportunity and just needs to invent a reason to be a part of the wagon does.

This is scum, who is going to give as little content as possible for the rest of the game. Lets just snipe it now.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Anya

Llama why do you think andres was killed?

Seems pretty baseless speculation. Only flips being off the wagon yesterday though is a little interesting though, but its something that reading into feels like throwing darts. Maybe we get right but it also can just be dumb luck or throw us way off. Its more of the confusing NKs that I think are the interesting ones to try and figure stuff out through.

Your thoughts on me saying Dats/Luca are probably town for trying to shift the wagon away from Rathe if OW is town?

what more digging did you do versus your prior post where you were still somewhat reluctant on Anya?

None. I just saw Anya once again shirk all responsibility for their own reads so just went straight to making a point. Anya either blames others or themselves for all reads. If my OW read is right here too they were doing it again in passing everything off onto others. If I go, it was because of Luca/Dats. If OW goes and is town, it was because of Luca/Dats. If OW goes as is scum, Anya tries to claim credit.

[LlamaFluff]

Infinity's vote is bare and vulnerable though like she has no reason to think anyone's gonna sheep that which is towny when she's the one at stake

alpaca is the one that makes it a wagon and more of a possibility

Check it out. Instead of responding to points now Anya is intentionally misrepresenting things in order to try and justify a vote by ignoring that immediately before what is being referenced I explicitly stated I would vote anyone not OW, Infinity or myself. This is scum. Whole game is active lurking. Very low content, very high noise. Gets called on making very convenient and questionable moves that get a TPR killed day one, and goes back to just messing around trying to be friends to players instead of trying to solve the game.

This type of play works for scum because it gets them ignored the entire time, just like it is here. It will slip by as long as you let it, and we need to stop letting it. There is no way that town-Anya who has been pretty dead set in a few reads sees the wagons develop the way they did D1, votes for Rathe, immediately reacts as if he was confirmed town pre-flip, and then the next day blames the exact same player she was calling scum D1 (and sheeped) for the wagon.

Needs to go now. All of her D1 moves near the end make no logical sense and fly directly in the face of everything she had been doing then starts calling the rest of the wagon scum.

[LlamaFluff]

so hurtful

i don't know how to defend myself i'm like a dragon without scales

Why did you vote Rathe? Why did you not care about the composition of the wagon given other reads?

[LlamaFluff]

llama can you crawl out of your anya tunnel for a moment and reply to the infinity push/case?

you were townreading her, mind giving your thoughts about other slots then just anya?

this also bothers me

bc he said me/luca are his strong towns

like surely if your strong towns are badtunnelled into a read you consider wrong, you try to... address them?

Yep. Dats/Luca are almost for sure town. OW/Infinity are probably town. But it gets a whole lot harder to get my Infinity read across without having confirmed myself first so I would rather just present an alternative today. Anya going still pretty clearly best. Fact that so many seem to agree with me and yet no one is joining starts setting off more flags.

From where I am sitting, it was Infinity as the leading wagon, me second and then I took my stance of saying I didnt want either. It seems a very dangerous move for scum to call that bluff in that spot instead of waiting for someone else to make the first move in calling it, and then deciding if they want to move forward of not. Any erosion of my wagon that doesnt end up with Rathe going all the way probably ends up with a dead Infinity. Scum I think either ignores me there, or trys to prod at what im actually doing because how often does town come up to scum and essentially say "I will save you if you start a new wagon". I think scum panics at that move, they dont try to act on it and instead go silent waiting to see what the first few town reactions are, then deciding what to do. I know a lot of this comes down to me being town and it not being confirmed yet, but I just think Infinity doesnt make that jump if they were scum. It feels like a town move who actually correctly read my mindset and now is more backed into a corner and questioning everything.

Aside I hate that apparently the major posting time of this game is 10pm to 6am my time, especially on days like this when stuff is happening but I have four meeting between 8 and 1 tomorrow at work I need to be alert for.

[LlamaFluff]

Dont want to show any cards yet. Want to get to the bottom of something really important that doesnt fit.

@Anya - In what world do you not target OW ever with that role? I want your thought process for all actions.

[LlamaFluff]

Just to be clear too.. *no one* comment on my question. At all. For any reason. Until Anya answers it.

[LlamaFluff]

Everyone needs to stop talking until Anya chimes in I think. Nothing about speculation. Anya needs to answer a very important question right now.

[LlamaFluff]

I want to accidental or intentional help. Anya is usually around. I want no chance of hiding or fading away. If you can completely ignore Anya, me and OW though... I guess feel free. But I think thats a pretty critical part of what will happen today.

[LlamaFluff]

Dont want to show any cards yet. Want to get to the bottom of something really important that doesnt fit.

@Anya - In what world do you not target OW ever with that role? I want your thought process for all actions.

why would i target bunny?

night 1 i targeted Koto because he was in my wolf pool but i like him so wanted to be able to townread him if he's town

night 2 i targeted you because you're my top wolf

Yeah this is scum. I actually think that this is at least a mostly true claim, but the checks are absolutely what scum would do. This role is pretty much something that can clear VT. What did OW claim? VT. What does town do in this case? Immediately target him under all circumstances. In the event they get back a "No Topic" it means that they are confirmed town beyond any means. What does scum do with this role? As there are multiple neighborizer type things in existence they start trying to hunt down the source of power. Thats why Anya targeted Koto and me, they are trying to find town PRs. They are not trying to clear town.

Any town with half a brain would have been trying to clear players. Scum are trying to find threats. Im not even going to acknowledge if the claim on me is right or not. Im saying we absolutely just kill off the role that inexplicably ended up on town day one, that hammered a doctor without a claim day two who through their role (if town) would have had the existence of a doctor essentially confirmed to them, and through all of it refused to target a VT who if they were town they could clear.

Im not saying Anya isnt some sort of scum investigative role, but they are 100% scum. Zero chance they manage to play day one, night one, day two and night two to such an extent that just using random number generator would have been more efficient. TA is basically a Vanilla Cop that cant get false positives. How does anyone fail to realize this?

Kill it. Now

Vote Anya

Anya-scum is actually decent Koto-town points too as I dont doubt that no matter her role that would have been a N1 target.

[LlamaFluff]

you're funny alpaca you talk with so much passion like it's actually personal to you and you're really offended that i could exist

must be fun to howl so loudly

Again. This is what dies today. Remember D2 where I pointed out that their choices made zero sense, and then they just randomly ended the day with (if they are telling the truth) knowing that a doctor probably existed through their role? This is return of that BS today. No town in the world just does that. Let this be a great lesson in you destroy anti-town play who is in the least bit scummy.

Anya should probably be dead by the time I wake up tomorrow, unless your argument is that a town player who has been hinted there is a doctor blindly hammers players while refusing to target the optimal target instead going for random players to check if they have certain roles.

This dies here and now.

Im not even going to acknowledge if the claim on me is right or not.

why the hecc not

Because it doesnt matter. If its true, I am saying Anya is scum. If it is false, I am saying Anya is scum. If I can avoid confirming a role, all the better. You obviously see why she has approached this role as scum without realizing it. It needs to die now.

[LlamaFluff]

why would i target bunny?

think about this for two seconds please

well i see the reason noooow for why checking vts are better

my checks went fine though so i am at no fault whatsoever and refuse to acknowledge any accountability for any bad plays this game

koto help

How. Is. This. Town.

D1 just appears on random wagon late. Ends up being town PR (note if Anya is telling the truth they knew there was a doctor). D2 quick hammers town again (again if actually town knows there is probably a doctor). This is scum who probably isnt lying about targets. Might not be lying about roles. What else do you expect from them? Strike first against player trying to take them down. Really what is the play as scum here? Its try and take me down. Its a bit more creative as just normal cop, but to exist as town they would have had to almost intentionally play against their win condition all game to this point. Scum their play makes all the sense in the world.

[LlamaFluff]

like why is llama not just claiming whether my check is legit or not if he's town? he doesn't even have to claim role just if the check is fake or not from his pov

See this is it. Anya is trying to make it matter if I say the claim is wrong or not. The main point is that the *results* are wrong. Im not sure if she is scum TA. If she is scum RC, or if this is just scum throwing out a guilty. None of it matters because all of their day and night actions only point to them being scum. If I can either trick scum into ignoring power or them into killing what is now useless... both of those are wins. None of the results line up with town, yet the moment its pointed out it becomes super obvious.

are you mailman llama?

Would this remotely matter?

[LlamaFluff]

It would matter, because the mailman is probably town...

Its been fairly well established that if that is my role due to enabler its useless at this point and Anya is outright lying. Again I dont want to show all of my cards, but the cards she has shown proves she is lying just due to pure logic. What town decides to not just start trying to clear/condemn what is near 100% guilty instead of chase around stuff when there is pretty clearly neighborizer roles out there?

Dont want to show any cards yet. Want to get to the bottom of something really important that doesnt fit.

@Anya - In what world do you not target OW ever with that role? I want your thought process for all actions.

Just to be clear too.. *no one* comment on my question. At all. For any reason. Until Anya answers it.

what would even be a towny or right answer to this question alpaca?

were you even interested in my answer or did you have sack ready to throw over my head as soon as i answered

Wanted to be sure no one else pointed out the flaw first. Fact that if you are scum no one pointed out that the correct target was OW is the only reason im not quite at a 100% 1v1 scenario, because it would also mean scum never realized what the "correct" move was, and I think at least half the game would have picked that up (outside of absurd scenario you and OW are scum which makes zero sense)

[LlamaFluff]

Llama, why can't you just say whether you're a traffic analyst positive or not? (Keeping in mind that a disabled mailman is not a traffic analyst positive)

i think at least this should be happening, and if he claims to be a positive i might even start advocating for massclaim. though the main reason is, i want this claim today so if we end up flipping anya and she's town, i at least want a guaranteed scum execution tomorrow, and i don't want scum!llama to be trying to get away with it by claiming a positive *then*

I would return a positive to a TA last night. Its also pretty obvious even moreso from where I am that it means Anya is scum as there are multiple town roles that fit into the same bucket and she is the counter to them. Pretty sure her role is exactly what she claimed, and I wouldnt even doubt her targets are exactly what she claimed (to the point Koto actually gets some town points with Anya-scum). Alignment... thats still scum.

This is literally nearing a 1v1 situation for me. Its borderline bastard modding for Anya to be scum here. Im just trying to see if there is a way to break this game, but the closest I find is a "I force scum to NK me/Anya" scenario and that only works if we are both town.

[LlamaFluff]

hm.

so we have 3 town pr's flipped, plus a mailman. then the claimed ta in anya and a claimed ta-positive in llama.

i... don't think these can all be town, right?

i'm in a call right now so can't give this my full attention but i'll @s_s to weigh in The Situation

Its Anya. Mailman can be either alignment and Rathe nerfs it heavily out the gate. It should be pretty clear (sans modifiers which I really dont want to get into) what I am at this point. Why create a town role that by D2 runs the risks of more false-positives than real positives? Its a PR hunting role.

[LlamaFluff]

This game actually seems to have a really cool concept going on that im digging. But it makes it more obvious why Anya is scum, especially if I ever get confirmed. I think she thought this was a safeclaim that could either drag town down with her first clear her as town, but it doesnt work that way. Scum TA is just a weaker version of RC in this spot, even though for a clear reason it can also backfire on them.

[LlamaFluff]

It should be pretty clear (sans modifiers which I really dont want to get into) what I am at this point.

It is not, at least not to me. So why not say it?

What town role would result in a TA positive and fits in with dead players? I dont think this needs to be spelled out. Also I think unless I have had really bad reads its best for me to keep quiet about everything here. I guess thats a "trust me" spot, but if im alive tomorrow we gain a ton.

Anya needs to die immediately. There is basically zero chance she is town outside of the review group being okay with what is essentially a "lets screw with this one slot" role. As a scum role, it makes perfect sense.

[LlamaFluff]

Let me put it this way, I actually wrote up a post this morning that had me fake claiming that I would not have turned up positive until I chickened out of it and instead am doing this. Thats how confident I am Anya is scum, I almost fake claimed as town. I just couldnt risk it because depending on a few reactions it could have ended up nearly being a game throw if I was wrong. I actually somewhat regret not making that move because it just has to be the truth, im that confident. Just not willing to let my return to the site being a bad read game throw.

What town ever has a Rathe-townish read all of D1 and then votes him late? Then backs that up with (as apparently Macho which would suggest doctor) quick hammer random player without a claim? Town doesnt. I think Anya is flipping Scum TA. No macho involved, that just became a convenient tack on. Even if we ignore that she essentially is a VT cop in disguise. There is zero world where town fails to target OW where if they were scum suddenly are 100% caught. Koto and me? Those are scum searching for town PRs.

Ignore all PR stuff and who is scum? Anya
Look at PR stuff and who is scum? Anya

Who dies today? Anya

[LlamaFluff]

I said consistency when I meant constitution

that's how torn I am

VOTE: llamafluff

So how does Anya who basically is a modified Vanilla Town Cop decide for two straight nights not to check the one player that has claimed vanilla? If OW is town, Anya actually confirms it. If they are scum, they are caught. There is no middle to it. Its not "Vanilla as is VT or Goon" which is a simple modifier its straight up confirm a player as town or scum. They didnt do it. Twice. What town in the world fails to realize this? Granted overreaction, but it would almost be as dumb as a cop checking a mason.

That thought process makes zero sense from even bad town. It makes perfect sense from scum who isnt paying attention to how they *should* be thinking as town. The wagon make sense for the most part and needs to happen.

@SS - Im not that dumb. Really there is only one thing that I can be, and ive been hinting as much out the gate. I just dont want to point everything out until needed. There is at least one other player who sees exactly what I am talking about here.

[LlamaFluff]

am i right to think that anya's reaction here feels kinda like scum giving up? like i'd expect more fire or *something* if the person you claimed to have a positive on just claimed to be a town false positive

maybe i'm just looking for an excuse to hammer

i'm still debating whether forcing the claim out is the right thing to do

I have left everything I need to impact tomorrow and more if I die, I hate using the "trust me" card, but if you at all trust me its there. Anya probably thought she could drag me down with her, but got really unlucky in the process having targeted me. Once Icon reads up this day ends. I probably die overnight after Anya here. Still give Koto town points as I dont think Anya is clever enough as scum to give a false negative on a partner in this spot. She probably would have needed to target a now dead player to come up with that one.

[LlamaFluff]

I kind of want Llama to fullclaim too but realistically I'm pretty much voting Anya today unless that claim is singularly awful, so I don't think it matters that much.

I think this is my fear as to why people want a claim. However I dont think it actually will change any opinion on what my alignment actually is. Its like the Anya situation, where we arent debating the role but we are debating the alignment holding it. Simply would be the same thing but there is a decent chance it gives scum even more information. Right now the chances are lower that they know how much of a threat I am and what ive learned. I dont want to show all my cards and then let them figure out what to do with me if it doesnt actually change what happens here today.

[LlamaFluff]

Okay so I literally stayed up later than normal for this, freaking 12 hour workday through multiple horrible meetings and im dead tired, probably should be waking up in about five hours... and I owe pretty much everyone quite an explanation.

Yesterday for some reason that I am going to depending on what happens the next few days hold I may or may not be borderline toxic over... Anya decided to lie about her result yesterday. I have no topic which is why I was just trying to deflect everything and push it to today because I knew she was lying. It either meant that she was scum (which I figured) and was trying to cut down the player that would suddenly be confirmed town with her flip. I am VT, so knew her claim was a complete lie. There most likely scenario was she was scum and trying to kick me out before her, so the best play in response was to hard call that bluff and send her home regardless. The only way it at all ends up in a bad scenario is that if you all go for her first, and she was town lying about a result.

Just hold off voting until close to the weekend so I can try and read back, see if I can find her true clear and maybe just avoid having the game essentially thrown from Anya hammering randomly and then faking a result.

Im going to bed now. Just really hold off on everything, because im not sure how anyone in my spot yesterday would have done anything but what I did. What happens if I counter? I die then scum dies. What happens if I double bluff scum? They die and I eat a NK as VT.

Ultimately im just horribly pissed that Anya faked a result, I called it right and she actually was town and now I probably need to play perfectly and get some luck on my side to even has a prayer to not have almost thrown in response to calling town faking something out correctly as being fake.

[LlamaFluff]

Can we please take a few votes off and at least let me reread and get up who I think is scum? Yeah I think Anya basically ruined this game and im really frustrated that I correctly called the bluff only to have it been from town. There is zero harm in actually letting me put up a case even if you think im scum. Yes this has to sound a few steps beyond absurd but its the only thing I can actually come up with here as to what just happened. She lied. I realized directly countering only resulted in me dying so I correctly called the bluff. It ended up being such a bad lie that we both die for it.

Just give me until the weekend. Game usually goes quiet then either way. If I cant produce a case that can sway people then fine. We just all rage at Anya after the game for trying something that if wrong was a pure game throw.

[LlamaFluff]

Look.

I have no clue whats going on.

If scum are just screwing with me because it makes Anya game throwing funnier.

If Anya lied about N1 too and my entire wagon is scum.

If this is a setup where there are only two scum so thats a part of it.

Just give me through this weekend to try and see what I can piece together.

[LlamaFluff]

Like I said... I think there are two reasons im still alive right now

1) Scum is just screwing with everyone because its funny for them and there is no chance im getting out of this even if they just goad town into the hammer
2) Scum dont actually have the numbers to win today and are instead some very stacked two player team

Far distant third would be Anya actually doesnt understand her results and got me and Koto messed up so three scum are voting me, but that would almost be award winning moment play given how absurd it is. I actually would be very okay with that being the result because it would be perfect end for this train wreck of a game.

First two scenarios though, what is wrong with giving me another 48 hours or so, especially if its scenario 2?

[LlamaFluff]

Im actually happy right now. I think my tired and not that sober feeling was right. There are only two scum and thats why im alive. Give me a couple days and I might be able to break this a bit. Even with Anya fakeclaiming a result and hammering without a claim when her role pretty much guarantees a doctor existing then flipping town... this might be winnable here. Want to see if anyone ever implied only two scum (I guess Anya was honorary third scum?). Im sure they had no idea what was happening yesterday with town faking a result on town and then me faking a result back, was 100% expecting Anya to flip scum and then I die immediately. If they did that might be a pretty critical slip, even if it doesnt pay off until tomorrow because I still expect to go here, just want to give you all as much ammo as possible from what will be confirmed town.

[LlamaFluff]

No one wants to or is going to say anything but no one wants to hammer either, cool cool

Its also most like I said that ive convinced myself this is an 11:2 setup and am trying to figure out what is going on this weekend. Pretty much just going to concentrate how D1 went from wagons on two town to snap wagoning on a third, and then going right back to the first two the next day (followed by dumb-town trying to fake a guilty on remaining one).

I think that composition has to be what gives it all way in the end. Biggest will probably be D1 where I think scum actually would have been nervous of wagons moving off of two town after it had already consolidated in that area. I fully dont expect to live through today, but will be damned if im not going to create long term impact on this game because I think everyone here but the scum are going to be really surprised that there are only two scum. At least this way there is someone thinking about what is going to be right before we hit the final day.

[LlamaFluff]

If I die before I actually get to do some analysis go back and look at what happened D1 and D2. There is no way scum wasnt at least confused by what was going on and may have given off some sort of tell or at least in retrospect made some claims that really sound like scum who know all to three wagons were on town.

[LlamaFluff]

These reactions also probably good tells as I work on a post. Again... worst that happens is 24 hours go by with nothing happening before I die with WIFOM injection if im scum? And as town everyone just blacklists Anya but you have more analysis?

[LlamaFluff]

Was town. Hope that this game isnt over. Just check back D1/D2 if its actually not because there is no way that isnt where the game solve is.

[LlamaFluff]

Figured that would work out. Vote Count stuff pretty heavily tied Umulat and myself to OW (who I was actually setting up as an innocent claim from me with a few roles I had been kicking around, Anya claim pretty much ended that though as only option was I neighborized him N2). Impulsiveness of town really hurt them, especially the confusing hammer from Anya D2 who as a macho modifier never should be randomly hammering without a claim. That ended up meaning she was going D3 and at that point then as long as town didnt catch onto balance issues it was more of an "if not when" for scum winning.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah it not any type of "bastard role" because its not lying to the players in any way. Closer to bastard would be you being a Mailman Enabler but there is no Mailman, or if you include Macho XXX and there is no protective role because while not lying to the player, you heavily are implying something to the player that is false.

Posting rate in this game was just absurd. Between this account which included list mod duties and two alts who both played quite a few games, I think im only around 15k posts total in about 10 years of playing. Some people apparently easily hit 500 a game now. Maybe more prevalence of smart phones is a part of it (dont think I even had one until around 2015)

[LlamaFluff]

I honestly can't handle hyperposting games and end up zoning out and not doing anything, and that's when I'm town.

Same was true for me here. Starting around D2 I started more skimming things and D3 I almost stopped reading entirely. I actually would rather read a few walls than essentially 100 text messages. Maybe im just old now.