Mini Normal 2196 - Game Over

[LlamaFluff]

Its been three years so lets do this...

Everyone needs to in their next post give a brief summary of the game so far and an explanation of their current vote. I dont want essays but enough for me to get a better idea of what happened in real time than reading 60 pages in a night which im doing now. Think one paragraph for each.

Unvote

[LlamaFluff]

Still catching up but first entirely confusing thing that needs clarification:

Update:

{April Ludgate} {bugspray}
{geraintm} {RLotus}
{AliceK}
{MiniMegabyte}
{Klick}
{Amélie} {Gretchen}
{HypoSoc}
{DrippingGoofball}
{Da Dude}

Update:

{April Ludgate} {bugspray}

{geraintm}

{MiniMegabyte}

↑

{RLotus}

↓

{Klick} {AliceK}

↓

{Amélie} {Gretchen}

{HypoSoc}

{DrippingGoofball}

{Da Dude}

Alice and Lotus never posted between these two lists. What happened?

[LlamaFluff]

Also I want a few more detailed thoughts on each other from the following pairings which I am really interested in at around page 30

Geranitum-Clidd (Alice weigh in with thoughts on both)
Dann-VFP

[LlamaFluff]

Also I want a few more detailed thoughts on each other from the following pairings which I am really interested in at around page 30

Geranitum-Clidd (Alice weigh in with thoughts on both)
Dann-VFP

I don't understand your question here?
Pairings as in if they are scum together, or as in interactions?

What is your read on Dann. Its essentially the question for everyone in that pair.

Again since its been a long time, does anyone have recent NRG experience? X-Day IC, Phycologist and Naïve are all things that at least did not usually use to be commonplace and just wonder if they are now. It appears they all fit the criteria, but dont want to bring in 2015 meta to my thought process if thats dead and gone.

[LlamaFluff]

I also want everyone to give me a somewhat detailed read on Dann. If you want to break out role related stuff and actions in game that is fine.

[LlamaFluff]

And just to pile on more stuff:

@DGB - I dont think we are going for Lotus today. I think he is a VI. Can you explain how you think your role works with other informational claims/flips?

Should fully be caught up tomorrow... glad I got some extra time because I think courses need to be changed.

[LlamaFluff]

And also just for a bit of a backstory on where I am coming from because I think most people here have no idea who I am: I spent 6-7 years as a List Mod (ran Large Theme for a bit and then moreso Open Queue), ran a Open Setup design contest, and worked as a primary reviewer for normal games. Just coming back to the site after about three years away. So thats why im so interested in how meta has shifted in that time as there are things that back when would throw up major flags that I need to see if still holds true.

[LlamaFluff]

Continuing to be repetitive but I really need to make sure everything is moving in good directions... March comes in like a lion yes?

@DGB - Give me your reads on Dann, VFP, Gretchen, Solon and their claim validities. Which one(s) are lying?

[LlamaFluff]

Again since its been a long time, does anyone have recent NRG experience? X-Day IC, Phycologist and Naïve are all things that at least did not usually use to be commonplace and just wonder if they are now. It appears they all fit the criteria, but dont want to bring in 2015 meta to my thought process if thats dead and gone.

I'm not sure what the meta is now days.
But I'm not Day 4 IC. FL made this claim, and it's by far not the first time FL has claimed something like this.

Thats what I figured (remind me to elaborate on this a bit more post-game) but wanted to just be sure as im trying to see what I can do to balance/break this game a bit and just needed to be sure.

Given your stance on Dann what is your opinion on DGB as they are quite connected. Also still not all the way through D2 but time is of the essence (especially as while I am working from home I do have a 8-5... or more realistically 7-6... job weekdays) so if I say something dumb that I just havent got to... yeah.

[LlamaFluff]

Also I cant believe I need to say this, but if there is a vig (whether or not you were responsible for the N1 kill) you need to claim immediately.

[LlamaFluff]

Im pretty sure who im voting at this point, but if everyone can try and get answers up ASAP that would be nice. Have to remote in to get a cost estimate done at work tomorrow, but will get the vote and reasoning out too. Just want to make sure I get some opinions where people arent completely sure where my head is at first.

Everyone also should be making it very clear if they think DGB/Dann is Town v Town or which (or I guess both if you want) is scum here.

[LlamaFluff]

Those arent answering my questions, but I do like the call on Ame 1375. Please answer my questions.

[LlamaFluff]

Its been three years so lets do this...

Everyone needs to in their next post give a brief summary of the game so far and an explanation of their current vote. I dont want essays but enough for me to get a better idea of what happened in real time than reading 60 pages in a night which im doing now. Think one paragraph for each.

Unvote

I think you probably have already taken a sample of the game.

Regarding my vote, it is basically a reevaluation based on the Vfp inerpretattions, which helped me deal with the bias in being reciprocating her townread in me, and the comparison of her scumgame with the current game, where I noticed that she is not out of her scumrange.

pedit: Are you talking with me?

Am talking to you. All I did was just check game state to make sure I wasnt replacing into a doomed slot (even though only time I did that I actually setup a win) before getting in. Since then have quickly read up.

I want to know your (and everyones) basic summary of the game, why you are voting where you are, read on Dann/DGB and anything else relevant. Even if not replacing in getting the Dann/DGB reads from everyone is important because thats pretty critical for today.

[LlamaFluff]

So you think this game has four informational town PRs? Maybe again its been that ive been away from the site for too long, but I cant even think of many large games that have that.

You are missing a very critical post in that Dann thing too. Where he went from "Hyp is probably town (943)" to voting him two hours later (1009). I do realize im being a bit obvious as to one of my picks, but yeah thats very bad.

[LlamaFluff]

Yep. If DGB wasnt N1 only this changes. As it stands I am trying to figure out how to manipulate what occurs without showing cards. As previously noted, I spent a lot of time in game reviews trying to forcibly break games and that mindset still exists. Again its just me thinking, but Tracker/Watcher were always two of my favorite roles to give to the scum team as its essentially a weaker version of role cop or vanilla cop.

Again its probably a meta thing, but in the way back "Naive" was not typically a role and that is throwing me off a bit for if its expected and how it balances. If investigative you usually got Deputy or straight "Backup X"

[LlamaFluff]

Literally the only reason I am not already pushing for Dann to die though is the "setup incompetence" tell he dropped that has me a bit worried. Works a whole lot better in Open games, but could probably be applied here. He essentially in major trouble if he is scum either way though, I think any correct lynch ends any hope he has of surviving to endgame if scum.

Too many investigative roles. One of them has to be scum. Gunsmith has me on edge too, as that tends to mean there is a counter to it one side or another. This can mean a vig (false positive) or a scum role that tests negative (Godfather or maybe if flavor heavy ninja). Otherwise why not make it a straight up cop? Need to sober up and really start trying to see what fits, but scum would need to be stacked in order for this to be fair given what I know so far. Again its old meta, but heavy swing (lots of PRs) is typically frowned upon. I think we are at absolutely zero chance all claimed roles are town. Its just about seeing if scum screwup and kill one that makes it obvious who is lying. If there is a vig, I still say they claim because its probably a forced win.

[LlamaFluff]

Lets just do this for now though and say if you think DGB is town (or want to push DGB/Dann to tomorrow) join in

Vote Ame

[LlamaFluff]

I'm not sure if that is the hammer but quickly before I go to work, last words are that I think Dripping is probably town at this point. This is too suicidal. If that wasn't the hammer, we need to think a bit before doing anything. They are being very suicidal and I just think at this point, it comes from town.

If DrippingGoofball is scum and that was the hammer, I'm happy to call Dannflor scum for a hammer out of nowhere. Solon's vote is horrible but that was minimegabyte and she was a solid townread of mine. I don't like VFB but I could see them being scum and that's it. Back to the cop on me request please.

And this is just, ugh.

Which part is just ugh?

This is also not answering any of my questions about summarizing the game and reads. Also do you not see how essentially they are calling the possibility Dann-scum implied a fake tracker result on DGB-scum who immediately gave up? If Amelie is scum its probably with exactly one of DGB/Dann given how hard they are reaching there.

Seriously if everyone can give a good synopsis of what has happened so far that can only exist as a good point in time pin where we can see where players are seeing things differently. I think you are a VI, but still want to hear what you have to say.

[LlamaFluff]

Actually lets do this instead

Vote AliceK

Day one they do nothing in terms of scumhunting. There actually is an over two week span where they are on Entrapa (Dann) and actually never address any reasons or try and gather any other support. Just sits back and says little while others peruse things. Also seems to at most just chainsaw April slot quite a bit.

Day two they show heavy interest in getting a claimed PR ran up, and then moves off the claimed PR for... the player the claimed PR says to have somewhat cleared because that player has a town read on someone. We are on day two. We have multiple claimed PRs. Alice is voting someone, who one of the PRs is saying they have down as clear, because Alice doesnt think there is a reason to have that strong of a town read on the player. Its also just confusing because if you think Solon is lying and never cleared Lotus... the move is to vote Solon.

She has been hesitant to do anything the whole game, attacking a player for being too confident in a town read (which lets me honest, the confidence there doesnt even seem high) and has routinely either refused to or decided not to try and get any sort of a push together to try and move the game in a direction they wanted. This is what scum who is happy keeping a status quo in the game looks like. I feel ive added more to this game in one day than Alice has in one month. This needs to start being the wagon.

[LlamaFluff]

I mean, she's a lhf in my view, but I really have no argument beyond that(and the "she looks like Hypo" thing) to sustain a tr on the slot. I'm just not voting her rn after seeing your points (which are good) to keep some momentum on Amélie's wagon, in case someone sympathizes with my read there.

You cant just use lhf when talking about anyone who hasnt been contributing as a reason to pass it off. Maybe the closest you can come to claiming that is if you think it applies to multiple players and im intentionally going after the path of least resistance. Also how are you "sustaining a town read" on Alice? You have had one up until this point?

Just look at the end to day one. Alice is devoting more time into figuring out if bug still thinks she is scum than she is trying to give any opinions on Hypo (literally never mentions him - all of day one). This wagon needs to happen if for no other reason than to force content out of her. Its inexcusable that I have a better idea of what the NKed players reads are than her reads. Her priorities are all over the place, and it doesnt add up with a player who is interested in catching scum. Its more in line with a player who is concerned about how others read them.

@DGB - Can you do me a quick favor and just confirm that you got a "positive" result N1?

[LlamaFluff]

Missed this. Emphasis mine

The defeatism is fake. Fake things don't always come from scum.
VOTE: Gretchen
Why did you latch on me the moment I called you scum?
I think the reason is because you are either DrippingGoofBall's scum buddy and you are trying to save them.
Or
DrippingGoofBall is town that you think is a mislim better saved for later.

DrippingGoofBall has constantly been scummy this entire game offering close to zero reasons to back up any of their thoughts. They are either scum or town that is playing poorly. Either way scum would want to save them here because they are either a scum buddy or not a threat to scum.

I admit my logic has been all over the place this game. However, you are the one constantly picking on that which I have felt weirdly about for a while now. There is no possible way you think town all have good logic and scum bad logic.

I'm not sure if that is the hammer but quickly before I go to work, last words are that I think Dripping is probably town at this point. This is too suicidal. If that wasn't the hammer, we need to think a bit before doing anything. They are being very suicidal and I just think at this point, it comes from town.

If DrippingGoofball is scum and that was the hammer, I'm happy to call Dannflor scum for a hammer out of nowhere. Solon's vote is horrible but that was minimegabyte and she was a solid townread of mine. I don't like VFB but I could see them being scum and that's it.

Back to the cop on me request please

.

Ame is simultaneously voting for the claimed NC, and asking for them to target her (which in of itself is all types of bad to start). Those things dont really mesh. That Gretch vote is also... bad. Ame calls Gretch scum for buying into DGB "defeatism", then goes on to say its not a scumtell (ie null-town) to sound defeated, then creates a false dillema where no matter what DGB is Gretch has to be scum by ignoring two other options (town is being tricked by scum or town is correctly defending town), then votes a claimed investigative roll (which gets bonus points on its own for its formatting).

Not to mention that Ame is calling DGB town now, and a pretty big part of her Gretch vote seems to center around Gretch calling DGB town.

Vote Ame

One of Ame and Alice need to go today. Im back on Ame side.

[LlamaFluff]

@DGB - Can you do me a quick favor and just confirm that you got a "positive" result N1?

I got Negative????????

Okay good. Thats the right result. Figured why not try to trap by fishing for an incorrect result.

[LlamaFluff]

@clidd - Can you point to any game in the past where you have successfully used meta to call someone as scum?
@Ame - Why dont you vote? You have only voted once this whole game.
@Lotus - Can you let me know why Alice over Ame? You are pretty much the only solid town read I have so want that insight.

[LlamaFluff]

@clidd - Ever done it as scum to help push a case on town/partner?

[LlamaFluff]

Yall need to post more. Literally if you are town not posting at least once a day that is borderline playing against win condition. Yeah I work a 8-6ish office job (albeit remote for now), but if I *ever* stop posting for more than a day without giving warning, call me out on it. If there arent even enough players around to be able to get a vote pulled off after I got the deadline moved out, that is a massive issue.

@mod

- Can we get a vote count and prods?

[LlamaFluff]

Ok, I have many trs/tls. That's a problem.

Those I need someone to explain to me as my best guess would both of those mean the same thing. Meta has probably shifted a bit (took me a minute to even get what lim meant... which is going to take some time for me to get right as I had about 10 years of calling it something else) so if I ever use something that is now dead (think closes may have been chainsawing) let me know.

[LlamaFluff]

Okay that makes sense. I thought those were three letter acronyms (was guessing town read slight and town lean slight then got confused) and not plural just given how that stuff is always spelled out at work which I deal with daily as construction season is hitting (like RFIs vs RFIS).

Chainsaw is probably an older term but still is very relevant. Its when Player A pushes really hard on Player B, and then Player C comes in and attacks Player A really hard, essentially trying to defend them to a certain extent by attacking the player who is trying to attack them. Chainsaw defense usually in those scenarios links A and C as related (although its perfectly possible for town-C to just be town reading B and trying to stop a push). Pretty much the chainsaw defense is attack the attacker of another player in order to defend them.

[LlamaFluff]

Ive always been taught that words in acronyms get capitalized, if its plural lowercase "s". Chainsaw term can easily be dead by now. As stated at start, I retired as Open Queue List Mod and from playing about three years ago and literally just came back. Still trying to learn any new meta/terms. Its just what I have always called it and what it used to be known as. Could be called something new now, but the tell still somewhat stands.

You reading VFP as town based on what he did or predecessors did? Also what did you gleam if anything over me asking DGB about their N1 result?

[LlamaFluff]

Also but really my questions about where VFP-town mainly comes from and my question to DGB are legit. I feel like im a couple pieces of a puzzle short so am trying to find them because if I can find the one critical one everything starts falling into place.

[LlamaFluff]

You ever heard of DGBs claimed role before? Again checking against if there is a recentcy bias in how setups are made.

[LlamaFluff]

You ever heard of DGBs claimed role before? Again checking against if there is a recentcy bias in how setups are made.

Yes, but I never played with before.

It shouldn't be that unusual imo, although I have no experience with the role.

Fair enough. I am just more used to an era of a weaker investigative role being more of the Tracker, Goon Cop, Motion Detector, Voyeur, type ones. This one makes sense though. Just was wondering if it was commonplace or not for what was claimed.

Night X at least again used to be rare but I can see how its worked... but Even/Odd or X-Shot was very common.

Also I fully expect to not die at night due to so many claims (even if Ame/Alice is scum) but if it does happen you all need to massclaim tomorrow because there is no way all of the claimed PRs are scum and it probably catches someone.

[LlamaFluff]

@DGB - Is there anyone that you would not vote today?
@clidd - So you have DGB as solid town, and Dann who did some odd soft claim and then backed off it but still seems to be saying they have a role as more neutral? If you had to guess what is Dann role wise if he is scum?

My problem here is I think there is no way Dann/DGB/Salon are all town. I would back Salon+Dann/DGB before all three are town here.

Looking at what Lotus just said... im fine moving back. Especially as I actually agree that the Ame wagon just doesnt seem fully right (outside of two PR claims actually being scum)

Vote Alice

I think everyone needs to be voting Alice, Ame or DGB right now unless you have a big reason to move elsewhere.

[LlamaFluff]

@clidd - So you have DGB as solid town, and Dann who did some odd soft claim and then backed off it but still seems to be saying they have a role as more neutral? If you had to guess what is Dann role wise if he is scum?

Yep.

If I had to guess, in a scum!Dann scenario, I would say that he's some kind of scum tracker. He needed to know that DGB was on Biped.

So why is he claiming to have not tracked DGB? Wouldnt he just hone in on that mislynch if he was scum, its not like he has any reason to back off it, especially with the DGB claim? He either gets viewed as obviously town with DGB dying and he gets no flack or he gets viewed as town and DGB lives. Thats a win-win.

I do keep going back and forth, but Dann-scum backing off the tracked claim (unless he is legitimately afraid of a different PR) just doesnt make sense because it would have been a blunder. Its also worth noting that if Dann is a town tracker, he absolutely should claim because that does massive damage to how breakable this game is. Tracker is a very underrated tool in creating cleared players.

I think im mostly just sheeping Lotus between which A goes today, because if he is scum its in such a narrow window that I think its a no lose situation.

[LlamaFluff]

@Dann - Claim. You dont need to claim any modifiers, just core role as a PR. If you are town (honestly even as VT) there is zero chance, that all of DGB, Solon and Gretchen are all town. This should pretty much assure we get the best vote today possible and maybe even crack the game wide open.

[LlamaFluff]

It's worth mentioning that gretchen and Dann seem coordinated in their votes today. Dann and grethcen were both on DGB. Then, gretchen said she can't see DGB's defeatism coming from scum and moved to Amelie which started the momentum there. Both came back to DGB around the same time as well.

Funny part is I see DGB-Solon as most connected of the PR claims

[LlamaFluff]

The only question I remember is why I haven't voted. I'm not sure how to answer that. I just haven't?

Voting is important. It shows weight to reasoning, it allows for connections to be made between players and it helps track timetables.

Im starting to read Ame as lost-town. They have no idea about what is going on in the game (to the point they are voting a claimed cop and dont realize it) or are completely faking it.

[LlamaFluff]

alice solon vfp?

This actually feels like a pretty good shout for a team.

Vfp is towny, but I assume you are using April (FL) to read the slot as scum.

I actually disagree with that statement a whole lot. April was bad, but VFP just really feels off on a gut level to me. If Alice slips scum VFP gets ran up immediately. Look at how much effort he is putting in to calling her kinda scum but still pulling out reasons to give a pass and vote elsewhere unless there is no chance of saving her. If I had to order who I would vote outside of all PR claims, I actually might have VFP second. They do post a lot, but its very superficial and lacks creating depth and solid reasons. Go and see if you can figure out why he is voting Ame without asking first. I actually am very unsure as to why he is, I just know more that he keeps saying they could vote Alice, but doesnt want to.

[LlamaFluff]

@VFP - Can you just summarize your Ame vote reasoning and explain why you think its better than Alice (who you still think is a decent enough deadline move)?

Now I'm paranoid.

Certain amount of paranoia is healthy. Too much or too little is dangerous if you are town (and can actually be a mild scumtell)

[LlamaFluff]

yeah llama and bugspray have both been extremely towny. probably my top townread. entrapta was weird in how they left and dann hasn't been CRAZY towny but actually getting a tracker guilty on DGB implies town, maf probably don't track DGB and tracker is also a weird role for maf?

It actually at least (used to be) a fairly common scum role. Pretty much a weaker version of a standard Role Cop. Sort of like a step down from Vanilla Cop due to X-Shot, Night, etc modifiers.

The only issue I have with how everything broke out is that if DGB is town and Dann is scum, he should have been pushing pretty hard on that wagon instead of backing away from it. Thats just getting pretty heavily into theory though and I dont think we can really crack that open too well without a full Dann and Solon claim which we still need.

[LlamaFluff]

If Alice slips scum VFP gets ran up immediately.

what does this mean "slips scum"

*Flips. I tend to typo a lot as I constantly reword things in my head, and if autocorrect doesnt catch it I usually wont either. If anything I write sounds very disjointed, I didnt like how it sounded, got in my own head and then made it worse with revisions.

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: Gretchen

I'm doing something

Why vote your counterpart?

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: Gretchen

I'm doing something

Why vote your counterpart?

My counterpart?

You claim N1 Psychologist
She claimed Novice Detective (and claimed before you)

Those work together pretty well, almost like putting a Odd/Even Tracker/Watcher type combo

If we are going between the pair my vote is very clearly on you, even though I think there is a decent enough shot both of you are town (especially as Gretchen would be a false positive to the dead PR). If between all claimed PRs I would target Solon/Dann before either of you though.

[LlamaFluff]

I keep thinking that it may actually be time for a massclaim today if people are active enough. We already have:

2 fully claimed PRs
1 dead PR
2 soft-claimed PRs

All that information is probably enough to catch at least one scum who is faking something, or semi-clear enough people to get a really small pool of "not likely town" and be able to force scum moves for most of the remaining game.

Of note Wednesday/Thursday are typically my worst access days of the week too as an FYI. I typically am still around enough to read, but not always around enough to provide content.

[LlamaFluff]

@mod

- With three replacements incoming is it possible to get a longer deadline extension?

[LlamaFluff]

AtE can be dangerous to use unless you feel that you can correctly identify the difference between town who got unlucky, scum who got legit caught and are angry about it, and scum who feels they got unlucky. It also depends when scum notice they have been caught. I won a game a long time ago after realizing a slot I replaced into was doomed and spent most of D1 just setting up everything for buddies to win.

It wouldn't be that hard to get 5 more votes on Biped.

The scum must really like the gamestate if they slayed Biped. I view that slot more like vig bait.

These two still make me thing DGB is town on a gut level, and I dont want to put words in their mouth but if I was what DGB claimed and targeted the player who died N1... I would absolutely say something similar. DGB went from wanting a wagon on Biped and followed that logic through the next day (even if Dann had voted DGB at the time of that post). Dann had said Klick softed something (never saw it)... but I think the logic checks for town-DGB to target Biped with an informational role unless buddies convinced them of going for Biped.

I would probably vote the Dann slot over DGB. Everything feels wrong, almost like Dann was blaming DGB for their lynch before it happens which if Dann thinks DGB is scum makes no sense. If he thinks DGB is scum it tracks more (pun not intended). I also really dont like that Dann assumes Gretchen and Solon are town in his logic.

[LlamaFluff]

@A50 - Do you agree with your predecessor that Lotus is probably scum?
@Pooky - So your read on DGB hinges primarily on if they crumbed?
@Lotus - Which of the PR claims is most likely scum to you?

[LlamaFluff]

what the heck is a night 1 psychologist anyway

Just because im not sure its actually been fully explained either...

DGB claimed a weaker version of a cop. Role essentially gives a result of "Can NK a player" or "Cant/Already has NKed a player", depending on role resolution they would get a guilty on any scum/vig that did not submit a kill. Innocent on town or any scum/vig that did kill.
Gretchen claimed a similar weaker version in novice detective. Role gives results of "Has killed a player" or "Hasnt killed a player", modifier means they cant target N1. It also would give a false positive to the dead GS.

Thats why I have those two tied together so hard. They complement each other perfectly.

Now yes what DGB claimed would be the obvious choice as a fakeclaim if Gretchen is town (and if scum is any good in that case would have been brought up in the PT) but it fits together very well. Feels like old school town getting Odd Night Tracker and Even Night Watcher or something along those lines. Again the Solon/Dann slots are *far* better PR-scum picks to me.

[LlamaFluff]

Detectives start weak, get stronger.
Psychs start strong, get weaker. Why limit a role that loses power almost completely by N3?

Sort of? It depends on what scum is doing. If the same player constantly submits kills it actually doesnt ever change.

Of the claims I've seen, what is that the only one with a night limit?

Every single role that has claimed/flipped as a night limitation in some way

Dann also claimed that the roles that are claimed cant all exist in the same game from a balance perspective.

So did Solon... you are comfortable calling it without seeing everyone's cards?

Mech Guilty with >90% even.

If DBG flips green, then tomorrow Pooks is gettin torched.

You also say Gretchen is scum pretty much regardless of DGB flip... so why are you on DGB? If Gretchen is always scum in your book that is. Also minus contradictory information on Dann/Solon claims Gretchen is 100% town to me.

Gut is saying I was actually right and Alice was scum here. I *really* hate how many people seem to be hedging their bets saying that the DGB wagons is the fault of DGB given how they have been asking. Seems a pretty safe way to approach it as scum if DGB was town because its not their fault. Dann claimed some role thing and DGB freaked out, had to be done, not my fault. Almost the entire wagon has a "well I guess so..." mentality, being the only one clearly against it is just throwing up all the red flags.

@DGB - Lets say you were awarded a venge kill. Who are you taking with you?

[LlamaFluff]

DGB is the best from a mechanical sense right now, the constant AtE is there and predictable. Moment that fire was fanned, boom DGB is back and flails.

Reasons I'm there, is mechanical backed up by scumscreaming after. There is no "i guess so" here.

Also you want AtE?
Screw trying to high effort games, I get scumread regardless. Your regularly prescribed chaos will resume shortly.

The push for DGB just feels very wrong to me. It seems like there is a portion of the game who are trying to prep for a town flip and that is what is bugging me. If I stop and think how I would be trying to approach this if I was scum, I would be doing what a lot of other people are doing. Its a mix of "Well Dann said..." and "DGB isnt helping themselves" that ultimately more leads into a "you cant call me scum for being on a town PR wagon". DGB isnt the worst vote today, but almost all of my warning flags are going off here. It would pretty much take deadline to get me over there.

[LlamaFluff]

I get that, but, again as someone who can AtE like an absolute beast I know what power it can have done right, DGBs is some damn good AtE, but it lacks the nuance and the raw emotional energy. It feels fake.

Im not basing my read on DGB, trying to isolate those voting DGB and get their logic. Also maybe getting into it a bit much, but if DGB at all remembers me, im pretty anti-"burn it all down" anger type playing to the extent when it starts happening it basically becomes an instant policy lynch to me. Part of why I left was the prevalence of that type of posting where it became just CAPS LOCK back and forth exchanges (if you ever run into games that have anti-CAP or spamming rules... that was probably descended from my ruleset). If DGB did that I would be all over that vote.

Other two that I would probably consider are VFP and Gera. Ame still just feels too lost to be scum, but again if it needs to happen it wouldnt be the worst thing in the world given how content-based unreadable the slot is. I just cant see scum being detached enough from a game to have no idea who is even playing or who has claimed. I want A50 content now though.

[LlamaFluff]

Llama, Flea is scum.

Thats why my vote is still there.

Gretchen voters need to move. That one isnt happening.

[LlamaFluff]

DGB is repeatedly bailing and returning. All I'm saying. AtE threats and no follow up. Now theres an ally, hey look the AtE stopped.

You. do. not. act. like. this. from. a. bad. guilty.

This everything being yeeted out of the pram, the moment theres threat, it all goes tits up, the moment there any hope at all of being saved, hey look DGB pulls itself together.

Unless you can 100% tell me that AtE has not effected you, DGB cannot be allowed to continue. I am happy locking in on me or it.

Lets just say that both of you earn immunity... who is your next pick?

[LlamaFluff]

*Gulp* This game has more replacements than a basketball game! How am I supposed to track a single slot all through the game? (Never mind ISOing a slot vs another!!)

I mean... you can iso three slots together. Ive used that a few times already

You first, and I've answered that once or twice now anyway.

I know you're not reading my slot well, hell in my catchup I don't even read my slot well and I'd vote for me, but I can't. Outside of me and Goofball, where you at Kouvu?

Pretty sure I have answered that too. VFP and A50 slots are still setting off a lot of alarms for me. I really think today is you or DGB though.

i mean why can't the setup be 4 different town gated semi-investigative roles?

5

and the potential of a vig

If there is a vig, especially if they shot last night, they need to claim about 30 pages ago.

[LlamaFluff]

If there is a vig, especially if they shot last night, they need to claim about 30 pages ago.

Maybe they are odd night vig or something idk

Im assuming you mean even night?

But yeah especially if they are even night anything where they had no N1 ability. Lets just say even night... you suddenly introduce a role that is a false positive for DGB (could kill N1, hasnt killed N1 - positive), Gretchen (has killed N2 - positive) and Gunsmith (has gun - positive)

[LlamaFluff]

I think everyone back that... its why I almost just want to throw a dart and snap wagon wipe out Gera or something and hope that other exchange resolves itself. I would say Ame... but that just feel so aggressively disconnected from the state of the game that it has to be town.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote geraintm

Your move then

[LlamaFluff]

The sad thing is that he could be playing like that as town.

But there is no gamesolving on his part, so.. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

So also your move.

[LlamaFluff]

If you want survival Flea (at least from my vote), voting amelie is something I am obviously happy to join in.

I have no interest in survival, I have interest in taking out the rotten apples.

Its also your move.

New wagon. Go go go or say why not.

[LlamaFluff]

Weekend.
Catching up and that was unexpected. Well not too much I guess as I always seem to face a "geraint is useless" wagon at some point.
I'm not sure what i can say to push people off me now, as it feels like the older players who couldn't get a wagon over the line combined with some new blood have decided I'm the elimination for today.
There won't be a claim coming from me if anyone is expecting one, I dont have anything.
What do people expect me to do now, fake a bunch of reads to appear more active?

You should vote Flea or DGB then. Thats the only way you might not go today.

[LlamaFluff]

Ugh I hate all of this. I think DGB and Gera are town now (the amount I hate how much VPF/Clidd are both on Gera is high)... but I think this becomes a more correct move

Vote DGB

If this is scum I think we are in good shape. If this is town I still think there is a ton of information to come from it.

[LlamaFluff]

If A50 doesnt get caught up and post reads, etc by end of the day too, thats a scumtell.

[LlamaFluff]

Pooky may very well be scum. Remember that.

Its just low. If I had to start just ranking town they probably would be my third or fourth most likely (based on mood at the time) pick to be town. Not discounting it though if you are town.

[LlamaFluff]

@VFP - I think DGB and Gera are both varying degrees of town following how those wagons moved around. DGB flips is *far* more useful than Gera flip, regardless of what it is. I will absolutely vote either if needed, but at this point its almost more of a utilitarian move.

[LlamaFluff]

@VFP - I think DGB and Gera are both varying degrees of town following how those wagons moved around. DGB flips is *far* more useful than Gera flip, regardless of what it is. I will absolutely vote either if needed, but at this point its almost more of a utilitarian move.

So why did you vote on geraintm instead of DGB if this lim is more viable?
Keep in mind you moved away from Flea to do so, with the deadline approaching.
Surely if you wanted an option of 2 wagons, you stick to Flea and have DGB as a back up with a no lim alternative?

Because at that point I was less convinced about his alignment so it could be a good try to move things and figured it was a very good way to get additional information his reaction and who actually followed made me think town. Not sure how after a week that there is little to no movement on any wagons only to quickly have a bunch of people amicable to a new one and then think "yeah thats scum". Also not like Flea was really a viable wagon, if you think he is you are lying. It was pretty clearly an attempt to get a non-DGB wagon moving.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Gera

Its closer. Still in forced work from home and deadline is pretty much right at end of day so can move if needed (assuming no impromptu meeting/call/etc). If anyone posts without voting DGB or Gera right now thats a scumtell unless you are going to attach an essay as to why you think they are both so town you think a no lynch is better than going for one of them today.

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: DGB

VOTE: DGB

Yeah I will sheep the two most obviously town

Vote DGB

[LlamaFluff]

DGB E1
geraintm E3

Looks like you have the hammer, question is, will you?

Unless something has changed not sure why he isnt... because

I'll bite.

VOTE: geraintm

There seems to be a general interest/possibility here so lets see.
We have less than 2 days, and broken record here but amelie, Flea, DGB would be the better lim (in that order).
But this isn't a bad lim.

[LlamaFluff]

I like traps (as you can see from some of what I have done this game), but I dont think you can call that enough of one since he apparently has really not liked me getting really indecisive over what to do and its a free pass.

Would rather just not risk him being able to stall at this point. We need another vote.

[LlamaFluff]

so dgb scum decided instead of hammering geratown that she should instead like not and just wait to die

is this the story im supposed to believe rn.

Gera did similar, just with no hammer. At L-1 he needed a swift kick to actually act self-interested. Its why I just have this gut feeling both are town at this point. DGB is just a more important piece of the puzzle.

Flea is scum

Also yes - probably true.

[LlamaFluff]

Anyway

GG Flea, you are doing a great job leading your scumteam to victory.

So assuming you are town... its something like three of (Flea/A50/VFP/Clidd)?

[LlamaFluff]

If a PR is scum its A50. I find it very unlikely that there are multiple false-positive roles for GS to deal with. Either way we deal with him tomorrow. If Pooky is town im betting scum is part of the group that was confused over Dann reaction at start of day.

Been completely slammed with work and other commitments (Wednesday-Thursday are worst days of week for activity) should be back fully Friday.

[LlamaFluff]

Gut still says its something like Flea, A50 and Clidd/VFP. Two town gunsmiths seems very trolly as it means there would be at least as many slots that return a false positive than return a true positive. Catchup tomorrow.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Flea

Just to get some discussion going.

[LlamaFluff]

Meh, kind of waiting for Gera to post more and Amélie to share what she's thinking.

Lets go you instead. Read on A50 and their role? They did claim early but if they are true we likely have a game where half of anything that GS returns a positive on are town. Not a maybe, but lets say its F3 A50 or a VT claim and you know nothing else about. Who gets your vote?

[LlamaFluff]

I have a feeling it's going to be worthless to try a lim else where.

Im willing to go elsewhere for sure. Its probably A50 and then two of Flea, You, Clidd, Gera and Ame

Site is still freaking out for me, so will see how catchup goes.

[LlamaFluff]

@Flea - Can you vote before I finish my catchup? If you are town I would love to see a case from you here.

[LlamaFluff]

@A50 - You too. I want to see a case.

[LlamaFluff]

If I had to choose between PRs + reads, I would eliminate A50.

If I had to choose between PRs - reads, I would eliminate Pooky.

Why would you want to lim between the PRs at all? Give me another night (a second check) to either catch a scum or clear a townie, then you can take my results into account after I'm dead. Same applies to Pooky tbh. ALSO, Scum are going to have to shoot one of us regardless of whether they have a RB. The one still alive on D4 will tell you if Scum do have a RB.

None of this makes sense unless you want to say Pooky is scum and they have a RBer. My fear is we screw up today, you are scum and then its a 50/50 tomorrow between you and whoever you targeted. Also to be very clear if you dont target Gera/VFP/Clidd/Flea/Ame you die period. Should be obvious, but im making it double obvious.

I think we leave you alone for today, but we can probably do worse. Right now im just debating mass claim or not.

[LlamaFluff]

I felt some positive emotional vibrations from Gera, I will move here for now.

VOTE: Amélie

So is Gera wagon all town... or is VFP scum?

[LlamaFluff]

mb gera is scum

Well yeah... I think only way Gera/Clidd are both town is A50 and Lotus are scum. Im just trying to delay doing what I dont want to spend the time on to an extent.

[LlamaFluff]

I mean, his takes are bad and his scumhunting is conceptually weird, but I still haven't found a strong point of ''this is definitely scum'', which is why I'm going back and forth.

There is a decent chance that he's town acting scummy.

What is your A50 and Flea reads?

[LlamaFluff]

Also I think this is massclaim day. If anyone has an issue with that, or with me choosing the order, say so in next post.

[LlamaFluff]

None of this makes sense unless you want to say Pooky is scum and they have a RBer.

How does me asking to leave Pooky alone equal me saying he's scum??

Because he got a result. Only other option is that you both are town and scum RBed you. Three claims existed. Gretchen died, Pooky got a result, you claim no action. Only way you and him are town and a scum RB exists is if you got targeted last night.

[LlamaFluff]

the 3 scum are clidd vfp and flea

I think still very good chance A50 is in that mix. This is also an explicit note to A50: You are targeting in that pool tonight. If you go anywhere else you die.

Mass claim order:

Clidd
Flea
VFP
Ame
Lotus

Everyone else has either claimed or done so by omission.

[LlamaFluff]

Why would I be targeting Lotus.. again?? Hello??

Clidd, VFP, Flea. Thats the group. You go elsewhere, you die.

[LlamaFluff]

@VFP - Flea or Clidd today?
@Pooky - Same question.
@A50 - Sure why not you too.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Clidd

I hate being the conf town. I function best as the probably town because I need enough blowback to form reads well.

Lets go here for now. If you are town Clidd convince me to kill Flea instead. Massclaim still is happening though. You post at your turn to claim without one, you die.

[LlamaFluff]

VOTE: clidd

Please give me some sort of input too. I dont want the game all on me. Clidd/Flea are the two big ones, if you have a preference I want to know.

[LlamaFluff]

i already said who i think the three scum r

it doesnt matter what order we eliminate them in

Lets pretend that everything goes south with your Clidd, Flea, VFP pick. A50 dies today and I die tonight. Who do you vote first tomorrow?

[LlamaFluff]

Unvote

Dont want Clidd just sitting at -1

[LlamaFluff]

Also strange that Llama omitted geraintm from the pool of people that A50 should check. Geraintm is in no way obvious town at this point.

If we get a clear I want a very active content heavy clear. You cant even start to say that something like VFP-conf town isnt more valuable than Gera right now

Vote Flea

Back to this

[LlamaFluff]

@Clidd - Wouldnt those things about Ame to you suggest that means she is scum with Flea (unless you think she called no buddies scum, you/Flea are both there) and a PR claim?

[LlamaFluff]

@Clidd - Wouldnt those things about Ame to you suggest that means she is scum with Flea (unless you think she called no buddies scum, you/Flea are both there) and a PR claim?

No, I'm only viewing Amélie as scum atm.

After confirming the flip, I can try to trace associatives from reading her ISO (with the knowledge that she's scum). But before that, I am not 100% sure on this read, so my judgment of partners will probably not be accurate.

Regarding PRs, I feel that there is a scum among PRs but this is not connected to my read on Amélie.

Im just saying if she is scum, do you think she is actually not calling any partners null or scum? Its only four of them alive, the PRs are two of them, you and Flea are the other two.

[LlamaFluff]

if we assume the 2 TPRs are real cuz I think mini normals r basically ~5 TPRs and that makes sense. Does any1 want to counterclaim another TPR?

Otherwise I'm gonna just townbin a50/me and lotus+llama as innos and we try to find 3 scum in the 5 people left over?

My big fear with that is still there are just as many town PRs that give a false positive as there would be scum PRs, that seems pretty absurd, especially as apparently there is no scum RB. Thats what feels off. I dont doubt either claim is false role wise, but content wise it could be.

@Clidd - Do you have examples of Ame using that same list as town? I usually dislike meta overall though beyond more than just a good baseline of a players general competence, activity, content and demeanor but its at least worth looking at.

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Flea

I still think this is the move.

[LlamaFluff]

I keep going back and forth between clidd and Flea (honestly im pretty sure its both of them) in large part due to end of D1

HypoSoc

(7)- clidd,

RLotus, Dannflor

,

Gretchen, Featherless Biped

,

bugspray, Solon

Green for town. Purple for PR claim or cleared by PR claim.

My list is probably something like most likely scum to least

Clidd/Flea
-gap-
[One PR]/Gera
VFP
Ame
-massive gap-
Lotus
[Both PRs]

[LlamaFluff]

I keep going back and forth between clidd and Flea (honestly im pretty sure its both of them)

in large part due to end of D1

Explain the colored part.

D1 final VC on town. Two confirmed town. Two PR claims. Two the PR claims are town. You.

It means either a PR is scum, you are scum, or the entire D1 wagon is town on town.

[LlamaFluff]

It is a bit significant. Really rare for a D1 wagon to be 100% town, especially one that ends a day. You get more like the below one that happened early using the same color scheme. Granted its poor use of Binomial Distribution (as there is about 10% of results should be ignored due to me not quickly being able to cap it at recognizing three scum) but to have a 7 town wagon is about a 13% chance if everything happens at random in a 10-3 setup (assuming town wont vote themselves)

Da Dude

(6)- AliceK, geraintm, April Ludgate,

Gretchen, Drippinggoofball, Ydrasse

I just dont really care about this game much right now as motivation is just gone. Still have a bit of a town read on Ame because I dont think scum is *this* disconnected from what is actually happening. It feels like town who doesnt care at all, who will miss a whole lot of stuff because they arent caring instead of scum that doesnt care but still has their finger on the pulse of the game.

[LlamaFluff]

@clidd (and I guess everyone) lets try this: What one player would you want to learn the alignment of most right now and why? What do you think that alignment currently is?

[LlamaFluff]

So im still stuck on team is:

Flea - Because his predecessor was horrible and it seems odd that he was more confident in DGB being scum than the player who had a "result" on them
Clidd - I have had really bad gut feeling about this slot from the moment I replaced in, and the D1 wagon needing a PR to be scum in order for clidd-town not meaning the entire wagon was scum

Then its a bit of a ??? I lean Gera/A50 but am a bit lost.

@Titus - Nice to see if you are still around. If you are in Sac we should see who left of the group still is here and get drinks or something after everyone has shots (the COVID kind, not the alcohol kind)

[LlamaFluff]

So scum is myself and the person that I'm townreading.

Good reads, Llama.

So then its Titus, Gera and VFP right? Cant be much else. It could be a PR claim, but I still am sticking too my "If a PR claim is scum, they actually have the exact role they claimed" status.

[LlamaFluff]

So scum is myself and the person that I'm townreading.

Good reads, Llama.

So then its Titus, Gera and VFP right? Cant be much else. It could be a PR claim, but I still am sticking too my "If a PR claim is scum, they actually have the exact role they claimed" status.

Its also why when DGB first got ran up, only one of them was on the wagon. Its also why when he got killed off, only one of them was on the wagon. The other was stuck on another scum and Ame was just doing whatever she wanted to. That makes no sense if its true. Absolutely no sense. DGB PR vs all the other likely wagons being scum and they avoid DGB? No.

It is at *least* one of you. I am basically willing to bet the game on both of you over none of you at this point. If you want to get me interested in this game again, you are pushing the right buttons early on at least.

[LlamaFluff]

@clidd - How do you rectify Flea-town with that slot basically never targeting any of your other scum pool except some exchanges with VFP (and around 12 hours of voting Ame at one point)? Even now they seem to be more in self-preservation mode by voting you.

That slot just seems to have avoided basically all other slots who are likely scum at this point when it comes to any sort of push (outside now of you).

[LlamaFluff]

Sorry Llama, I forgot standard practice is to self vote in this situation :eyeroll:

So is it standard scum practice to not vote against the biggest wagon alternative in this game state?

[LlamaFluff]

Pretty much what do you think it serves for Clidd-scum to try and heavily push Titus here? The only thing I can come up with involves a scumteam of Clidd-VFP-Gera.

[LlamaFluff]

Gera seems to be at the root of all possible scum teams.
Just throwing that out there.

Yeah I know. Probably wouldnt be the worst last minute panic move of all time.

[LlamaFluff]

I feel like town!Flea could also be angry with me for some reason, which could be making fae refuse to try to reassess me.

It's one of the hypotheses that I'm working with.

That seems to really be painting yourself into a corner if scum again. Gera+Flea town, with you also town... thats borderline impossible. Leaves VFP, Titus and a PR Claim as it. Is Titus + VFP both scum in almost all of your scenarios? Feels like it.

[LlamaFluff]

Sorry Llama, I forgot standard practice is to self vote in this situation :eyeroll:

So is it standard scum practice to not vote against the biggest wagon alternative in this game state?

My options here are me or clidd, I'd love to see where a VFP wagon goes but its too late in the day I feel and there's a lot sat on me, there's no way I'm being unwagoned today and clidd is digging deeper. That's where I'm voting.

So you get a one shot day vig. Who is catching the bullet?

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Gera

Your move both of you.

[LlamaFluff]

This game

[LlamaFluff]

im just following llama i hope hes right lol

Yeah me too... I was just trying to reaction test Flea/Clidd and then this happened.

[LlamaFluff]

Waiting on A50. Im going to assume we have a "Was RBed" claim incoming though.

[LlamaFluff]

Me still waiting for A50 and debating just voting for him shortly because that might make him show sooner

@mod

- Also its been bugging me too long (and as old LM can be annoying later when archiving)... the game thread has a typo in the MN Number.

[LlamaFluff]

I did get RB'd, so not much help from me..

I agree to sheep Llama today.

So unless scum RB couldnt act N2 this is just a scum claim right? You know the night where there were three claimed investigative roles, one got killed and none got RBed?

[LlamaFluff]

Actually forgot that A50 claimed odd night. Stuff makes more sense then. Scum either in that case kill Pooky and clear me or (if A50 is town) kill him and clear Lotus. That probably also means that Lotus is not a false clear (outside of scum with A50) as they would have just taken out A50 first, blocked Pooky and that essentially sends Lotus straight to a F3.

Thanks for pointing this out but I can’t see what you’re referring to, both the title and OP say Mini Normal 1296?

Am I insane for thinking this should have been 2196? I think 1296 would have finished back in 2012.

[LlamaFluff]

I think the thing that bothers me most about A50 is that if town it means town has *five* investigative roles (granted most are pretty weak) while scum had daytalk and a RBer. My gut is telling me A50 is telling the truth about his role, lying about his alignment, and didnt get RBed last night (he is basically a PR cop). Also N2 bothers me. Gretchen dies, sure. Pooky gets a shot off and that means A50 got blocked? Its within the realm of possibility but I need to see how much interactions backup what my gut is saying.

[LlamaFluff]

Why was Solon not role blocked N1? I had it in my head that Solon just claimed day 2.
Also, I'm not sure how Even night Gun smith works with Novice Detective?
Is a Novice Roleblocker even a thing?

Novice can be attached to pretty much anything... maybe line gets drawn at something like "Novice Mason" where they dont know each other for first day. As noted earlier my gut is saying A50 is actually a decent shout for Mafia Even Night Gunsmith. Still think he stays today though.

I still think pool here is Flea/A50/Titus

[LlamaFluff]

If you wanna yeet me, yeet me. I know what position I'm in. A50 claimed block when surely one of the PRs should've been blocked previously and claimed it.

So why vote VFP?

[LlamaFluff]

Just a warning due to an absurd number of work commitments for tomorrow good chance I disappear for next day and a half or so.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah, basically that ^

The elimination of Gera was comically quick.

Quick
It wasn't funny though

Like I said in dead topic... it was because at that moment I realized that Clidd-Flea were not scum together which meant you were probably scum (or I was so horribly wrong nothing else mattered). It was actually intended to be a reaction test and I would vote one of them from it... but then everything that happened happened.

[LlamaFluff]

nice my reads were total trash and we still won

good job townfriends! <3

I think you clearing Llama was a huge sucess to the win.

Yeah. Dann almost destroyed the game for town. Pooky rescued it.

[LlamaFluff]

Yeah I probably would have dropped the DGB role and then maybe even nerfed the Neapolitan a bit more (maybe just motion detector or something). Scum had quite an uphill battle, but number of players claiming early for no reason helped them a lot.

[LlamaFluff]

It was probably the right move given the role, but it never got dealt with. Plus the whole RB thing didnt sit right. He probably should have gone D4 and then Lotus left alive all game to drive paranoia. If F3 ended up Flea-Clidd-Lotus lots paranoia exists there.