Micro 1006 | Hydrogen-9121 | The End

[RationalMadman]

We should push for elminations today. Not for a NL and also not with the normal random-elmination(RE, as opposed to the former RL) strategy.

The setup is 100% open to scum, who know which PR can can catch them and want town to not use their free moselimination.


We stop at E-1 and before hammering let the person claim
If they are counterclaimed, we hammer on them. The other PR is probably useless to us but still is utilisable as a clear to lead the following day phase. Even if we hammer the real PR, it is as bad regardless.

So, we should talk as much as possible as this is a setup where the PRs only matter day two but where we as a town should put deep pressure on each other and scum from the get-go since we can't protect the investigative PR with a role regardless, so we're they're only useful for finding a scum member and dying the next night phase anyway.

If at E-1 they go un-counterclaimed (unCC'd) we unvote and let them lead the elimination today (again at E-1 we let the person claim).

No matter what, the PR is useless when it comes to finding both Mafia or WW. We should be hunting instantly and sharing thoughts.

[RationalMadman]

Sorry I meant NE not NL, I am getting used to the new language, have been using the L-word habitually on all other platforms.

[RationalMadman]

What do you mean? Scum can't hammer to win on day phaae one.

[RationalMadman]

We have a completely free elimination here where if we are wrong, we still can win. This is the exact point to use it.

[RationalMadman]

If we play passive and scum hits a PR on night phase 1, we are potentially screwed in entirety as the results from the other PR meam absolutely nothing during day 2 regardless (si ce we don't know which type of scum it is)

[RationalMadman]

Scum has 2/5 chance to hit a PR, that is not ridiculously low.

[RationalMadman]

No matter what the PRs at their maximum capacity gain town one guaranteed correct elmination, that's all. Thisgame comes down to scumhunting and proactive town actions during the day phases.

[RationalMadman]

FIRST

Any thoughts?

[RationalMadman]

you

The chances are 1/5 if you mean the PR that can catch the type of scum but there's both Cop and Seer regardless if I understand the setup correctly.

So the odds are 40% not 25% but are 20% for the PR that cpuld physically have caught (and we won't know either way if a PR dies Night One unless the other found a guilty or wolf read)

[RationalMadman]

If Not_Mafia can't control himself and hold back from hammering as town, that is a severe violation. I don't want to be accused of OGI so I won't discuss the implications of that. However, it is 100% anti-town to hammer before the voted has a chance to claim in this setup even if you are one of the two PRs.

[RationalMadman]

We shouldn't cower out of voting just because someone has a meta of hammering as any alignment. It's them who should cower out of doing so.

[RationalMadman]

I don't think agent of chaos would be trolling like this as town. Even though fae may do this regardless, faer controbutions so far have intentionally been designed to aggravate and disturb others, as opposed to gauging reads from reactions.

[RationalMadman]

That said, nobody has towntold at all so far.

[RationalMadman]

I never called agent of chaos mafia, as opposed to werewolf ever. Fae is lying.

[RationalMadman]

Yep, that's what i meant.

But most effective play for mafia who getting killed then is claim PR which they fear (Mafia claim Cop, Werewolf claim Seer). They dying anyway and have nothing to lose, but can reveal PR. It's still 1vs1 though.

So it's impossible to kill mafia without revealing PR right now, as they WILL fakeclaim, if they are somewhat competent.

The PR can only ever reveal one mafia anyway, since there's no protective role to save them the following night phase.

[RationalMadman]

I am willing to make this day phase myself vs agent of chaos if fae will not cease this trolling. It's detrimental to have faem in the lategame.

[RationalMadman]

I also townread Enchant not for what they said page 1 (or he, pronoun not revealed so I will stick to they) but because they follow up by consistently explaining that they support the lynch today just that E-2 is preferable to E-1 as we have a player with habit of hammering regardless. This shows me also that the discussion of odds was regarding how i stantly wrong things can go if the E-1 outs as a PR.

[RationalMadman]

Instantly*

[RationalMadman]

Hello, do you have any reads, Xi?

[RationalMadman]

I did not play with agent of chaos ever unless it's a secret alt. I played many years ago (literally 6 years ago was my most recent game) and grew bored of mafia in general.

I recently got an itch to try it out again and this time wanted to take it a lot more seriously.

[RationalMadman]

I've played on and off on other websites when Mafia was a casual thing, like epicmafia's sandbox on a random alt at times but not really seriously much at all for a long time.

[RationalMadman]

I got kicked from all epicmafia sandboxes for stupidity, so i dislike epicmafia for nontolerancy and don't want to see this name ever again.

Thx.

You interrogated me asking if I have played with Agent of Chaos before.

Agent of Chaos (AoC) has only been on the website since April 18th 2021, how could I have played with this individual before?

I do not know them and honestly the playstyle is basically hardball trolling where fae'd probably do that as either alignment, however since there's no indication of precisely what's being done with reactions to the trolling other than voting me based on a false allegation, I am inclined to scumread AoC.

[RationalMadman]

Hi, thanks for the primer on strategy, I'm noobish and never played a micro before. I thought it would be easier but it seems scarier.

This being the first message is intended to do nothing other than poke fun at me.

Even if you are playing as a casual, to have fun, why would your first post not just be 'hi, I'm here' and somewhat ignoring me?

I very much scumread this opening, it shows you have been reading everything and that your only feedback is you wish I'd try less.

[RationalMadman]

I mean, this is also why I didn't vote AoC, I disafree that his reply saying claiming VT prevents him getting terminated is in any way a towny analysis (it's just fluffposting, making you upset with what was a fine post and analysis). That saod, I am certain this is trolling done regardless of alignment, I don't understand where I said AoC is mafia insteas of a wolf, so again it's fake/forced-searching for holes in thinking, it's just fluff.

[RationalMadman]

Disagree*

[RationalMadman]

Sorry I said 'him' I suppose faem is the correct way to jtilise the pronoun even though it only gives fae/faer

[RationalMadman]

Utilise*

[RationalMadman]

The only reaction given by Robert to me is saying ge wasn't being sarcastic. That is literally the only contribution.

[RationalMadman]

VOTE: Robert M Hunter

[RationalMadman]

Ar arbitrary as it seems, I do not think Robert would ever make those two posts as town. Who would open saying someone is overcomplicating the game only then to give absolutely passive response to a scumread? He'd either make a jibe back at me or would contribute more.

[RationalMadman]

He's had hours to post more.

[RationalMadman]

It wouldn't mean absolutely nothing, if they have a "clear" on someone their chance of being scum gets cut in half.

That's not really how odds work but I do kind of understand what you mean as it's 1/2 chance the setup is that setup.

[RationalMadman]

I stand by my primary reason for townreading Enchant, I townread him for consistent contributions that are not just quantitative but qualititative high-scores.

Enchant has helped us even if they are scum, more than almost anyone else except I would say myself.

This is impossible to scumread to be perfectly honest. He hasn't fluff-posted much at all, has continually pressured and questioned. I will not read Enchant as scum unless extreme circumstances change and if I am somehow alive alongside them at a later stage in this game.

I can tunnel a scumread hard and do the same with townreads too and see no issue with it. I hard-townread, whether or not you agree with my reason for doing so.

[RationalMadman]

I don't support the bandwagoning of AoC based solely on the trolling, I will only join such a bandwagon if AoC flat-out refuses to change this day's vote dynamic from being AoC vs myself.

AoC would troll as either alignment and has been so active in the thread quanty-wise that I feel it is becoming a townsided thing. Why would fae post again and again and again as scum? AoC would probably back off or ramp up the trolling if scumsided in this scenario.

[RationalMadman]

Just. Don't claim if you realised you are on E-2 or even E-1. Claim when town hate you and want cut your head off, unless you claim.

If one doesn't claim when E-1, that is just stupid especially in this situation/setup where claims are essential to de-escalating if on a PR.

[RationalMadman]

"quanty-wise"

I meant quantity-wise

[RationalMadman]

Even in the queue thread, AoC was trolling with their first 2 posts on the site, one actually personally trolled myself.

After I in'd, AoC said 'I see I will be in good company' sarcastically or something.

I won't mention more than that, you can see the post history (it was only 2 posts anyway and the other didn't apply to me). This isn't me discussing other games in this thread as it isn't even ongoing and was the queue thread.

AoC is very clearly not concerned whatsoever with how annoyed other users get towards faem.

[RationalMadman]

I accept that last line, so why do you think they would be inclined to troll less as scum?

The stream of trolling has remained consistent, which is something I didn't mention and is a tell I noticed that is fairly top secret until I said it now but even though I say it, it will still be true. Something I noticed with troll-happy players is that as town, they keep trolling to the same level throughout the game. As scum, they tend to burst into further trolling or to sit back and let others fight.

This may not be true in longer forum mafia but in smaller games like this I think it's similar to the casual shorter formats I've gotten used to.

AoC's kept it to the same intensity and actually voted me to reaction-test me I think, though I don't see much done with reactions.

I don't know how to read this player but what I do know is that the habit of trolls as town is to keep it to the same level of quantity regardless of how the game is going.

[RationalMadman]

I didn't mention that read because I didn't want AoC to realise I had such a read, it would influence how the player interacted from page 1-2 to now.

[RationalMadman]

I also notice that when trolls are town, they love to vote anyone who suspects them, with a burning passion. On the other hand, as scum, they tend to try much harder to make it appear like at least their reason for doing so is more valid than just 'OMG you suck!'

[RationalMadman]

Or claimed seer if it's werewolves.

[RationalMadman]

I said unCC'd PR leads another elimination. I was pointing out a hilarious irony. Twice now, in the original accusation and also here, AoC assumed scum are mafia instead of WW in his hypotheticals.

[RationalMadman]

In faer* hypotheticals

[RationalMadman]

I am very sure Robert wouldn't have posted only those two things and never posted again, however the hydra is doing the same. Both seem scummy to me. In this setup town want to talk quite a lot while scum want to hide as a default. There's nothing but pure fluff from Robert and the hydra but Robert's fluff didn't even make sense in itself.

[RationalMadman]

So I believe in Robert being the optimall elimination here. We need N_M to get prodded or something, the inactivity is unreadable.

[RationalMadman]

Robert as town wouldn't have*

[RationalMadman]

So...
Anyone having reads on Vander?
I don't!

I nullread them as well, why do you scumread me? Your original reason was probably false.

Vanders easily could be asking good questions as either alignment, I don't know how to read it. Vander hasn't directly given bad nor superbly good advice, I definitely don't scumread it unless that's a particular meta for this individual.

[RationalMadman]

We should vote Robert, I am very sure this will get positive results for town regardless.

He is clearly not going to post anything worthwhile until pressure is on him.

[RationalMadman]

At this stage, we have some active members, one is trolling but somehow still contributing, others are saying fine things and the inactives are all scumtelling by default.

Going for the lurkers is a viable strategy, I don't see another way. I would vote Robert over the hydra or N_M because of how passive the second message was, it made no sense unless he just wanted me off his back.

[RationalMadman]

I voted Robert on page 2 or 3.

[RationalMadman]

viewtopic.php?p=12718258#p12718258

[RationalMadman]

Well I'm not unvoting, he's also weirdly feigning being brand new by saying it's his first micro game but isn't his first game.

[RationalMadman]

Just his first micro.

[RationalMadman]

Seems like a bluff to me, a clever one at that. The fact he was magically online now shows that he's been silently reading the whole time. I can't discuss ongoing games and he's in one so I can't bring up specifics but I don't think this would ever be his level of effort if he was a genuinely concerned town now. There'd be reads, pressure, everything.

Claiming vanilla is a clever ploy in the short-term because it's very easy to townread it.

I do not for a single second buy the claim or alignment. That is literally ALL he has to contribute? No.

[RationalMadman]

Robert is bluffing by not CC'ing a PR, that is my take. AoC actually explained the logic behind faking vanilla as scum previously.

[RationalMadman]

It's short-term bluff at the sake of long-term guarantee of partner knowing the PR. I do not buy the claim at all.

[RationalMadman]

Again, I cannot believe for a single second that this is ALL that Robert would contribute as town here. That's it? "I'm vanilla yeah whatever guys"

What reads? No anger? No panic? Just "I'm vanilla do whacha wanna"

[RationalMadman]

No, not same at all. Actually it makes perfect sense he magically shows up as scum if he was barely paying attention, his partner may well have warned him.

His partner could easily be you, considering you were online to instantly unvote as he outed.

I don't know what exactly you unvoted for, nor why you voted him if you had no basis. I am sure of my read more than ever and your behaviour here is the first time I have seen you break out of character with your trolling. Suddenly you are concerned and defensive over another player and pushing hard on a sudden townread on him.

If you got a better idea, go ahead and convey it. If Robert is town, he clearly is dedicated to being pretty useless this game in effort levels, I don't want to risk outing another player's role at all and if he's town the loss of a lazy vanilla is not an issue at all in terms of that the only better outcome is lynching mafia/wolves here.

[RationalMadman]

I assumed they did because it mentions a private thread for personal thoughts then says Mafia/wolves already have one. Will be useful to clarify anyway.

[RationalMadman]

Btw Vander easily did it instead of you, as could anyone eale pretending to be away or Robert himself but your reaction here is strangely concerned vs what you've been all game. You honestly tow read Robert's way of claiming and reacting? What are yoyr actual reads please tell some. Do you townread Enchant as well (as I do)?

[RationalMadman]

Else not eale

[RationalMadman]

I assumed they did because it mentions a private thread for personal thoughts then says Mafia/wolves already have one. Will be useful to clarify anyway.

Meaning in 'action submissions' above. I didn't assume the PT turns off or whatever during the dayphase.

[RationalMadman]

I don't think this vote is wrong byt hypothetically who is the team if Robert actually is vanilla?

I think if Robert is town here, AoC is extremely towny because of faes reaction to Robert outing and how fae asked if they have a meeting.

[RationalMadman]

That set of reactions after Robert outs is not what scum would do vs town Robert imo

[RationalMadman]

But is could be what a partner would do and J don't townread Robert at all.

[RationalMadman]

Sorry for these typos, I suck as smartphone typing but try to do it fast anyway.

[RationalMadman]

For me, Robert is scum and the partner is possibly another lurker, explaining why he cares so little. Alternatively, Robert just doesn't care and the partner is active and compensating (that shines a scummy light even on myself, I admit).

[RationalMadman]

If Robert is town, I'm almost definitely certain that the hydra is scum because it appears the scumteam has a lurker among them, since the vote on Robert only gained momentum from two of the most active players voting him after I did. I don't for a single second see an Enchant+AoC team viable both due to interactions and due to what I said about if Robert is town, AoC is town.

[RationalMadman]

I honestly support pushing this elimination through and the flip, even if vanilla, helps us determine many things next DP (but I predict I'll be dead).

[RationalMadman]

UNVOTE: Robert M Hunter

[RationalMadman]

Robert, if all you see in my gameplay is that I have steered the game and claimed AoC is trolling, then what is my agenda exactly and what would I have gained by voting Not_Mafia as a towny in your eyes?

[RationalMadman]

Also, who is my partner and who isn't, under your reads?

[RationalMadman]

Why are the other active players not scum under your reading system?

[RationalMadman]

I am very curious why you only mention this read and stuff now. You literally were E-1 and all you said is you're vanilla town, do whatever. You didn't even say I was scum or vote me, you're only doing it right now. If you think as scum I'd oush this hard for you even after you outed, you are wrong but I don't think you're just wrong I think you are scum.

[RationalMadman]

As scum, I'd unvote you instantly when you outed as I'd have every motive to push on others and get claims.

[RationalMadman]

I will like a response to these when you can give it. Your train of thought is very difficult to follow but I am happy that you've started to contribute.

[RationalMadman]

Also if you'd replied that the first time, I'd have townread you more ironically and done what I said I'd do as scum. Now, I fortunately had the opportunity to prove I wouldn't relinquish until you contributed.

[RationalMadman]

As scum, I would also be scared of leading so hard onto you and leaving you E-1, you could have flipped PR and I'd get all the blame. The way I've played should jot be scumread by you unless you assume scum are always control freaks.

[RationalMadman]

I still stand by my read, your logic seems forced and it makes no sense at all you only posted that right now rather than the original bandwagon.

[RationalMadman]

I want others to talk more, especially the hydra and not_mafia

[RationalMadman]

Attempted to catch up, got halfway through page 2 and got bored

None of Rational Madman’s posts are worth reading, Agent of chaos is scum

The tells happen later on than half way through page 2.

[RationalMadman]

I never got there because of your pointless spam, if you want to highlight specific posts I’ll probably read them

What is your read on Robert M Hunter and the hydra?

[RationalMadman]

I think vander is scum in this game potentially (not just potentially but you get the point).

Assuming they/them pronouns here.

Vander seems to be asking questions to players and voting the path of least resistance without having a hard stance of their own from what I see.

There is something off about it because I sense that Vander is capable of a lot more aggression in cross-examining than what's been done so far. On the other hand, Vander is one of the only players actively doing it so I not sure how to justify a vote but I'm outing this vibe/gut read here and now.

I do think they easily are scum WITH Robert. That team isn't unthinkable. Vander could be throwing Robert under the bus here out of self-preservation as they see a bad long-term outcome of teaming with Robert. Actually, Vander could be with anyone at all because of how neutral the core stance is. I ask Vander to make clear the reads they have and reasoning behind each. Nullreads are fine but I'm unclear who Vander townreads, only clear that voting Robert through to elimination is supported.

[RationalMadman]

I do not think Robert would claim cop or seer as scum, he's essentially portraying to me someone who whether vanilla or scum, has no vested interest in the game, so as scum there'd be motive to just claim vanilla and hope. After he notices we don't hammer him, he then scumreads me for scumreading and leading a vote on him.

[RationalMadman]

If you think Robert us town, unvote him btw

[RationalMadman]

Is*

[RationalMadman]

I want Robert to answer the questions I asked at some point.

[RationalMadman]

My current reads are that of Robert flips town, the team is Vander with one of Hydra/Not_Mafia. I do not believe both the Hydra and Not_Mafia are scum. I strongly recommend if I die Night One, to base the day two vote on this. I wput seriously take a look at Vander and the Hydra as well as townread AoC if Robert flips town.

At this point, I firmly believe there's little to gain but I will wait to see if Robert answers my questions, it cannot hurt to hear further reads and logic.

[RationalMadman]

If not of*

[RationalMadman]

To be clear either way around, I don't townread Vander. That said, the one thing thatakese feel Vander isn't a partner with Robert is how little Robert cares. It imolies Robert's partner doesn't care about this game either.

[RationalMadman]

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

[RationalMadman]

Why is that?

[RationalMadman]

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

I asked you several questions, please answer them.

At the very least, explain your reads on any player except me.

[RationalMadman]

RM, why do you keep talking about Robert's flip as if it's for sure going to happen, call Vander scum, and not have a vote down?

Don't want to risk outing a town role, moving the target away from someone who claimed vanilla is suboptimal when we have a free mis-elimination and when the targeted player is being totally unhelpful throughout.

[RationalMadman]

Can you explain how you get to the conclusion that if scum!Robert doesn't care, his partner doesn't care either? Who would you consider "doesn't care about this game"?

Until your most recent posts, I considered you and Not_Mafia as extremely high candidates in that spectrum as well as AoC being within it but over time AoC has moved into proactive territory after some contributions following faes unvoting of Robert.

As for the first question, it's very simple, I do not believe that the safer bet/assumption/conclusion to make if Robert is scum, is that his partner is in any shape or form playing well. The kind of partner that would inspire Robert to play how he's playing is one that has somehow tilted Robert into feeling 'screw this game'.

That said, it's a weak conditional read, not a strong one.

A strong conditional read is that if Robert is town, AoC is town for how AoC reacted to Robert claiming vanilla.

[RationalMadman]

Spoiler: I am quoting Vanderscamp

I use male pronouns.

I think my reads have been extremely clear this game!
I've outlined them all already.

I thought Robert was null leaning scummy until his bigger post where he goes after you, and I think that post was very scummy and probably the scummiest thing anyone has posted this game.

I think you are towny because of how hard you seem to be trying.

I think your town reads on Enchant and AoC are poor, particularly the AoC one.
Despite being consistently present, I think AoC has contributed literally nothing of value the entire game, and the only thing I've liked from that seat was the dumbtell about day chat for scum.
I think it's very easy for scum to post what Enchant has said so far, but given that he's basically the only person other than you or me who is trying to provide actual content he is basically off the table for me until he starts to sound actively scummy.

Everyone else is null.

I don't think it's particularly useful to cross examine or have strong reads this early in the game, unless something is super obvious, because it just leads to tunneling.
For example I think what you did with Robert's initial entrance posts is in general pretty counterproductive (even though I think in this case you are town and were correct with your read) because it makes it much harder to objectively evaluate people. As an example of this, Robert claimed VT and you had this claim as an unbelievable claim and a clever bluff, which are both things that are essentially never true about a VT claim in a situation like this.



I'll accept not being town read by you, or even scum read, that's fine; I think I'm definitely within my scum range this game.
What I won't accept is me being one of the only seats that is trying so far, with one of us posting shit like "I think this makes sense coming from wolves, but not necessarily mafia" or whatever the fuck it was, and you deciding you would rather flip my seat over either AoC or the scummy nulls.

I didn't just disbelieve the vanilla claim because of what the role was, if that was my reasoning I'd scumread myself even. My reasoning was how laid back he did it and how thoroughly 'IDGAF' he has been about the game.

I don't really know what you expected me to say or do, I definitely had and still have no motive or genuine basis to townread Robert whatsoever. The one thing about Robert that made me unvote him was I didn't want a quickhammer to occur before he had a chance to properly out reads and perhaps have others react to said reads. I think I am dying in the night phase and want to extract as much information as possible.

I firmly scumread Robert even now, at this very point, however the 'firm' isn't absolute. Robert could indeed act this way as a vanilla townie who doesn't give a damn about the game.

I don't believe there is ever a 'too soon' moment to make reads. Even if they're semi-forced and stated only for a reaction, I am a proponent of having reads and pressure ASAP on everyone in a game. The more ruthless the game pressure atmosphere, the better it is for town if you play such a scenario out over many games. Pressure is where scumtells

and also towntells

happen.

[RationalMadman]

Why wouldn't scum be incentivized to try to run up other people once they see a VT claim from Robert in the hopes of outing PRs?

The third question is very pertinent. AoC didn't and hasn't even slightly moved on from unvoting Robert to pushing for another lynch in this day phase. Fae hasn't even threatened it. This is extremely important in understanding what the 'nature of' the unvote was, simply to give Robert breathing room, let the day drag on and let us perhaps get reads on the 2 lurkers.

As scum, AoC would probably (if Robert isn't his partner) sit there giggling and wait for someone to hammer. At the very least, there's no real reason for AoC to suddenly not just unvote but take the game seriously after that point. I read the change in attitude as very towny if Robert is town. If Robert is scum, AoC could have acted in all those ways as the partner.

[RationalMadman]

Spoiler:

I don't understand what's happening this game if you are town, not_mafia.

You came into this game with energy and a self vote and since your first post your energy has been zero.

Why are you even playing this game if you have no interest in hunting at all?
Why is this not you as scum seeing that your partner Robert is likely going down and losing all motivation?

I think we are in quite a good spot because I am quite confident Robert is mafia and we'll be able to kill him without needing any town to claim.

Just one thing, I actually think (of course this could be an 'either way around' act) but it's slightly more likely that if Not_Mafia is scum, Robert is town.

N_M is somewhat taunting me that I will not be killed in the night phase, as if to say 'I'm framing you, not killing you, Robert will flip town.'

Obviously, this is reading into things that may just mean much less than they do. I do not have the slightest clue how to read this user 'Not_Mafia' it's just pure laziness and you can't read laziness as town by default however this user is well-known for this meta it would seem (judging by the user having a reputation for haphazardly hammering even as town).

[RationalMadman]

So Robert's flip is indeed important to structure any day 2 reads and is safest to still eliminate, I will revote after Robert outs reads or when time demands

You just decided I'd be the easiest townie to slay on my second post and you've been piling on nonstop ever since, hoping to bamboozle the other players into submitting to your will, like the good little scum that you are.

I asked you several questions, please answer them.

At the very least, explain your reads on any player except me.

You're scum, you're wasting my time, you already know my alignment.

And who is everyone else in the game? What do you think of their posts?

This is not me agreeing/admitting anything, I am not going to engage in the nonsense. If I fight you more and you are town, it gains us absolutely nothing the next day phase if you don't properly out reads and others interact with it. We are running out of time. You need to out reads that others can react to, so that others can read their reactions.

You don't get that, you just want me eliminated for voting you on a very vaild reason for suspicion. Town that is heavily invested in the game, or actually invested at all, wouldn't have made the first 2 posts you did and then posted nothing since. I think it's possible you're town that just wasn't/isn't invested in this game. I am willing to consider that, so tell the rest what you think. If you are voted off, your dying posts will potentially save the game, from your perspective. You think I am scum, what else do you think?

[RationalMadman]

The second is persuading others about it!

I hate this game though, and the onus is on you to read me correctly, but especially to scum read Madman correctly. Unless he's your buddy, in which case I'm screwed.

Let me get this straight, you scumread me because I scumread you.

That is your only read, your only contribution to the game. You claim vanilla.

Somehow, you expect this to turnaround a bandwagon on you.

[RationalMadman]

I think at this point Robert is actually vanilla and I should have pushed on the hydra.

[RationalMadman]

However, I am aware of the risk involved with that, regarding PR reveals so I am pretty torn.

Robert appears to be an extremely frustrated vanilla, bursting to be voted off and for me to be voted after.

[RationalMadman]

His mindset of tunneling me in revenge is not towny but the way he is sticking to it actually is towny.

[RationalMadman]

I am now genuinely unsure what I should do, I honestly think Robert is just disinterested town.

[RationalMadman]

If Robert were scum, who was putting on a show to stop getting voted off, why would he keep saying to vote me off after he is? It's as if he positively believes I am scum qnd is ready to die for it. He is wrong and doesn't understand much about towntelling but I do not scumread the tunneling of me, it reads as towny and genuine rage.

[RationalMadman]

I will wait for the time to move on, I read the hydra as a lurker who forced sone interactions in a burst of posts before lurking again, none of which helped the game at all.

[RationalMadman]

Today it appears only myself or robert will emd up voted off. There is insufficient reason to risk outing a PR so the only guaranteed vote from my POV (whether or not I am PR or vanilla) is to vote Robert. At this point, I have no choice and am extremely worried what Robert will flip as if he flips vanilla it appears I will be scumread by all.

That being said, his flip will help me read a lot about others and I sure do not want myself voted off nor to risk outing anyone else's role at this point.

Therefore,

VOTE: Robert M Hunter

I do want a hammer to happen actually and am ready for whatever fate the flip beholds.

[RationalMadman]

All except Vander*

He townreads me.

[RationalMadman]

If Robert flips town, do not imvestigate AoC, he is town. I am quite certain.

If Robert flips scum, do not investigate me.


The rest is up to you.

[RationalMadman]

That is not me claiming non-PR, that's my advice regardless, for at least one PR.

[RationalMadman]

If Robert flips scum, then do not townread AoC. It's conditional.

[RationalMadman]

If Robert flips town, investigate Vander.

[RationalMadman]

What I'm seeing is a bunch of people who believe Robert has a high chance of

being scum

but are voting him anyway.
R_M, Enchant, and Xi.

This could be a severe slip. He meant 'being town' so if Robert is town, Vander's brain may have slipped by meaning 'opposite of what Robert is'.

[RationalMadman]

In fact that could be a slip either way around.

[RationalMadman]

His mindset of tunneling me in revenge is not towny but the way he is sticking to it actually is towny.

Why?

Robert wants to die and has maintained the willingness to be voted off. He is so sure he will be voted off that his stance has remained rigid that when he flips, he wants the others to honour his death by voting me.

That is why it's towny how hard he has stuck to the revenge-tunnel on me.

[RationalMadman]

You were meaning 'despite thinking this, they did that, so your brain was most likely processing 'despite this' and got confused. It could be an innocent error you made or be a slip, there is no reason for me to not point it out. This day ohase is ending any second and I want as much out there in case I'm nightkilled.

[RationalMadman]

The only nightkill that objectively evens out the game...

[RationalMadman]

If anyone thinks I bussed say it right now. Cop doesn't out btw.

[RationalMadman]

Btw I townread the Hydra now, in hindsight. The way the Hydra began to run many hypotheticals while also voting Robert and getting agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert all adds up as town to me (because Robert was WW not Vanilla).

[RationalMadman]

I also think Vander is Town, on balance. Vander kept townreading me while I pushed on Robert. Even when others were having doubts, he even went from being someone very hesitant to vote Robert to voting him and still consistently townreading me. I don't think if he wrre bussing, he'd necessarily do it so hard because he runs a very high risk of losijg the game off of it. I also like that when I scumread him for being too neutral, he started to get more aggressive. Scum can do that too but typically if he townreads me (which he says he did) and I state a reason that I scumread him, a town member in his shoes will adjust to be townread by me. This is something we can call towny manipulation, not scummy manipulation. Scum wouldn't necessarily confirm how he did nor post as much content as he did after said scumread. He even agreed with me on the scumread on himself and said it was justified.

[RationalMadman]

For me, today is AoC vs N_M, if one isn't the partner, the other is. I don't think for one second that Vander or the Hydra would actively have encouraged Robert to claim Vanilla instead of Seer in that scenario. I also am assuming the scum do have daychat, the mod never confirmed.

[RationalMadman]

Robert may have done it of his own volition, of course, however I am bancing things out.

[RationalMadman]

Sirius do Scum have daytalk yes or no?

[RationalMadman]

Balancing*

[RationalMadman]

VOTE: Agent of Chaos

I'm aware I have no authority now that the Cop has claimed, I'm happy to cross-vote this and let N_M hammer.

[RationalMadman]

Well I'm voting you.

[RationalMadman]

If you are scum, then scum did try to derail it

[RationalMadman]

Exactly, why didn't you? If you were town you'd either revote him or lead on someone else. I assumed you were town if he was town and I stand by that read.

[RationalMadman]

Why did you put Robert E-1 to begin with?

[RationalMadman]

Why did you do it because I told you to?

[RationalMadman]

Everyone can say their piece. If it's not you, since N_M is Cop, I'm very much confused.

[RationalMadman]

You told me to.
An I though he was putting him on E-2!

When you realised he was E-1, you kept voting him forcing out the claim at which point you instantly unvoted him.

[RationalMadman]

You told me to.
An I though he was putting him on E-2!

When you realised he was E-1, you kept voting him forcing out the claim at which point you instantly unvoted him.

I found his claim towny.

What else about him did you find towny throughout the day phase that led to you never voting him again?

[RationalMadman]

You told me to.
An I though he was putting him on E-2!

When you realised he was E-1, you kept voting him forcing out the claim at which point you instantly unvoted him.

I found his claim towny.

What are your reads on everyone who is alive?

[RationalMadman]

If he didn't why didn't you revote him?

[RationalMadman]

If he didn't why didn't you revote him?

He felt to me like AFK town, rather than AFK canine!

What do you mean AFK? He made around 4 or 5 posts since you unvoted him.

[RationalMadman]

I’m cop. I’m not getting into a 1v1 tomorrow.

This is a good claim if you are cop, if there's a cop that's not N_M I will not believe you tomorrow.

that is gamethrow territory if you genuinely vote him tomorrow if someone CC's him who refused to CC him here, today. Don't even suggest that.

[RationalMadman]

I am not unvoting AoC today unless cop forces me to.

I fully want this elimination to occur, I don't agree Xi is scummiest if this fails, to me it's VERY equal between Vander and Xi and AoC's flip is 100% necessary for me to properly decipher how to hedge that bet.

[RationalMadman]

I am certain AoC is scum here from multiple angles of analysis.

[RationalMadman]

Great Grey

Wolf

Sif: +Excellent

Spider hunting skills

. +Very

Eager

. +Is the

goodest boi

. -Sometimes might just play with the Spiders or puts them in his mouth and try to chew them but drop them on the floor by

Spiders must be the equivalent of Seers. I think he literally softed being a werewolf in his second post of the game.

[RationalMadman]

fae* not he, apologies.

[RationalMadman]

DS1 Bosses Ranked By How Well I Think They Could Protect Me From Spiders

Bed of

Chaos

: -Utterly

infested with spiders

.

[RationalMadman]

Chaos Witch

Quelaag: -Is literally a Spider.

Maybe Spider meant scum and it was a joke, either way, I am extremely skeptical of what that post even was.

[RationalMadman]

Enchant noticed it being a potential soft of being a PR role (and probably predicted chaos was claiming Seer since Wolf was on the other end of the spectrum or maybe claiming cop since Wolf was said to eat spiders)

[RationalMadman]

So, I am very skeptical about what on Earth that post was now that Chaos has outed with the claim of Vanilla Townie.

[RationalMadman]

If Chaos did make that post intending to soft being PR and to get nightkilled, why hasn't fae mentioned it since?

[RationalMadman]

Great Grey

Wolf

Sif: +Excellent

Spider hunting skills

. +Very

Eager

. +Is the

goodest boi

. -Sometimes might just play with the Spiders or puts them in his mouth and try to chew them but drop them on the floor by

Spiders must be the equivalent of Seers. I think he literally softed being a werewolf in his second post of the game.

What % chance do you believe that this was the case?

Is that some kind of joke?

It was either him as vanilla townie intentionally softing PR to get nightkilled in place of PR or it was exactly what I said as some strange ploy.

I do think as scum it has even more flexibility as it lets him CC PR later on too.

[RationalMadman]

Great Grey

Wolf

Sif: +Excellent

Spider hunting skills

. +Very

Eager

. +Is the

goodest boi

. -Sometimes might just play with the Spiders or puts them in his mouth and try to chew them but drop them on the floor by

Spiders must be the equivalent of Seers. I think he literally softed being a werewolf in his second post of the game.

I have no idea what you're talking about here

What do you think that post meant?

[RationalMadman]

I might be missing some site meta but it feels like a very big stretch to me

Site Meta for a brand new user? I am reading his literal post trying to decipher the intent and meaning. I already realised he wast softing PR on day one and Enchant even voiced it. I kept silent about it because I didn't want to tip the Scumteam.

[RationalMadman]

Was* not wast

[RationalMadman]

Was potentially softing*

[RationalMadman]

Faes not his* I am sorry I am very new to non-they/them gender-neutral pronouns, I will try my best not to make this error again.

[RationalMadman]

I think it was gibberish

Not at all. I gave faem a chance today before I brought it up, to bring it up faeself.

The issue is that either AoC was softing PR or was softing being a Wolf. It cimes down to what Spiders mean.

[RationalMadman]

We are still mot clear why he copy pasted a reddit post. The AoC has broken the Blah post rule as fae made many.

[RationalMadman]

Who would copy and paste a random Reddit post about Dark Soul characters?

[RationalMadman]

To me, the onky scummy thing is Vander isn't voting AoC, I'm beginning to scumread the hesitation and overly talking about the next day like Vander is sure there'll be one. It was a dumbtell for Vander to inoly N_M would be CCd

[RationalMadman]

So honestly based on Day 2 my townread on Vander is reducing

[RationalMadman]

I am willing to switch to Vander but I do mot believe Vander would tell Robert to claim Vanilla instead of Seer nor push hard on Robert in spite of us doubting Robert's flip.

[RationalMadman]

The wasting of time is a big issue for me. Vander's hesitation here makes no sense if he's town. Why did he think cop would be CCd unless to force a dumbtell that seems towny?

[RationalMadman]

Hydra is unreadable ofc day 2 but the ending behaviour to day 1 makes me genuinely townread the hydra.

[RationalMadman]

It was a dumbtell for Vander to inoly N_M would be CCd

Imply*

[RationalMadman]

You can give me no benefit of any doubt.

[RationalMadman]

I have played very well and intend to carry us through to a victory. I'm sad I wasn't nightkilled in place of the Seer but I am ready to carry through regardless.

[RationalMadman]

You are absolutely fluffposting and wadting time but you can believe it's not a waste if you wish. AoC will keep posting nonsense.

[RationalMadman]

Let's make a bonfire while we wait.

[RationalMadman]

AoC as town would have posted by now and pushed on a read. Whole blank real-life day from all.

[RationalMadman]

I'm confident in my vote tbph.

[RationalMadman]

Pretty sure using the site via automated input mechanism isn't allowed.

Why do you scumread Xi?

[RationalMadman]

Fae means you didn't vote Robert on the bandwagon that forced him to out.

[RationalMadman]

AoC told Robert to claim Vanilla as WIFOM. This is also why and how AoC was online to instantly unvote after the claim, trying very much to passively divert us away from Robert but not wanting to risk pushing on me, as Fae wished to still appear like a towny troll and also because I was one of the only town players defending AoC.

I am very sure of this vote.

[RationalMadman]

This also explains why I was left alive and Enchant was nightkilled. AoC as scum would leave me alive and nightkill my hugest town read (Enchant) hoping somehow that the seer investigated Enchant, if it wasn't Enchant or investigated someone who wasn't AoC.

Furthermore, Enchant had suggested that AoC be investigated at the end of Day Phase 1, so AoC could be quite certain that if Enchant were a PR, he'd investigate AoC.

[RationalMadman]

The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.

Vander would not tell Robert to claim Vanilla rather than Seer. Vander also wouldn't follow up the releaae of pressure we have Robert by insisting we keep the pressure on him.

[RationalMadman]

There is no sensible partner of Robert other than AoC from my perspective at this point in the game, Since N_M is the unCCd Cop.

[RationalMadman]

If I CCed N_M, would you vote outside of {me, N_M}?

There is absolutely no reason to ask or wonder about that if you are Town. That is stupid to even ask and yes 'stupid questions'

do exist.

The answer is no, the reason is so obvious that I will not type it out.

[RationalMadman]

Vander would not tell Robert to claim Vanilla rather than Seer.

Elaborate?

Only someone who genuinely believed that claiming Vanilla was a great bluff which would get the bandwagon away from Robert would recommend doing this. Vander is very experienced, he'd almost 100% recommend Robert to CC Seer because what you (AoC) don't understand and I now understand you weren't pretending to not understand earlier, is that if Scum doesn't CC Seer, Town is likely to still eliminate the Vanilla claim that they already did scumread anyway, in order to protect PR-outing risk.

Furthermore, what you

definitely don't gras

is that the strategy of Mafia, more so than Town, in a setup like this, needs to be defensive and built around worst-case scenarios. Town had 9/25 shot at pure physical autowin on Day 2 (3/5 chance Vanilla dies at night multiplied by 3/5 chance that Seer investigated non-Cop living Vanilla or the last Werewolf) which would instead be 0/25 had Robert CC'd Seer.

Furthermore, that 9/25 is not the full probability of how bad the situation was for Scum. If on Day 2, the 11/25 happens, the Scum is still severely screwed because there's almost definitely one Townie (in this case myself) that is too blatantly Town to lose to scum in the 2-way let alone 3-way which we would typically have here. Unfortunately the scenario that absolutely guaranteed Werewolf evened-game probability to win happened; the Seer died (there is one other way this works out for scum, if Cop died and the Seer investigated the Cop, that helps Scum practically just as much since Seer will have to out this day phase or risk being successfully CC'd by WW on Day Phase 3 regardless.

Do I think Vander would encourage Robert to land Vander into 9/25 probability autoloss on DP2 if Robert gets eliminated vs 0/25 chance if Robert claims Seer? No. Do I think you would? Yes. Do I think the Hydra would? No.

Do I think that Robert, on his own, took the initative to do that without consulting his partner? Possibly, which is the only thing I hesitate(d) about scumreading you based on after Robert's flip. However, everything Vander and the Hydra did towards the end of the DP1 implied they would love to get rid of Robert rather than risk anyone else outing, you implied the opposite.

The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.

Looks like bussing to me.

Not the kind of bussing where you create a crowd to TERMINATE your partner, but where you join an already created crowd which is likely going to TERMIANTE your partner anyways.

See my answer to above.

[RationalMadman]

"Furthermore, what you definitely don't gras "

grasp, not gras

[RationalMadman]

Assume I am town. Vander was around when the VT claim was cast. Hence, Vander is 99% town. Hydra wasn't around, so hydra is probably scum, who didn't tell Hunter to claim VT, and hunter claimed VT on his own. Correct?

I would suspect Vander over the Hydra because of who was online during the time the bandwagon happened on Robert. It is possible he warned Robert on the scum chat that the bandwagon is happening, it appeared Robert wasn't reading the game thread at all for the whole day before.

It is possible, Vander didn't specify what to claim to Robert and Robert jumped the gun and claimed Vanilla.

It is also possible what you said is true and the Hydra didn't but what doesn't make the slightest bit of sense to me is townreading you in the first place. You acted exactly how you would have, had you been Robert's partner.

[RationalMadman]

When I said 11/25 the reason is that there was 4/25 chance that the person investigated by the seer died and the additional 1/25 where they didn't die but seer investigated WW so 9+5 is 14

[RationalMadman]

No sorry I meant seer dying makes it 5

[RationalMadman]

There was 1/5 chance (5/25) for WW to stand a chance and 2/25 only that it would be this evened out.

[RationalMadman]

Then there was 11/25 chance on top of the 5 for WW to basically nit really stand a chance qhen we factor in reads and towntelling from DP1 as usually one vanilla towntold strongly enough. It was basically an allin gamble that Scum did where if Robert doesn't get unvoted, they wasted all the gambit to severe consequences.

[RationalMadman]

WW had to either kill the Seer or the person investigated by the Seer to have a proper shot at winning. Only if they killed the Cop with Seer investigating the Cop would it be essentially as good as killing the Seer.

That is the simplest non-mathematical way to explain my above posts.

If WW honestly thought they'd win a threeway vanillas-vs-them scenario, that arrogance ti make it worth the risk probably comes from a player like AoC. It could be argued that I'd do that, however I ask you why on Earth I would be the slearhead of voting Robert out if Robert didn't CC Seer. Surely if I bussed Robert, I'd get him to CC Seer. Let me tell you jow, as a Wwerewolf there, Robert should always CC Seer, always. There's no reason at all to CC Vanilla instead. None. I would not risk such things. 36% shot at pure autowin for Town and essentially 80% outcimes don't even the game out for me at all as WW or Robert if I were eliminated instead... I would not force this outcome, ever. That's just stupid.

[RationalMadman]

I will hopefully catch up soon

-Xi

We need you to confirm the cop claim your hydra-partner softed, or claim VT.

Where?

[RationalMadman]

Hydra didn't read, AoC didn't help, Vander didn't post and the cleared Cop didn't either.

[RationalMadman]

It's called ELo now and yes, I believe that wins us the game.

[RationalMadman]

I will repeat (but clearer now) Add 1/5 (seer dying out ofnthe original 5, regardless of who thry investigated) to 1/25 (Seer investigating Cop)

6/25 chance to have a genuinely even game, not 2/25, my math was iff I apologise.

Now, add on 3/25 to that. 3 being that the WW kills the Vanilla that the Seer investigated.

9/25.

9/25 at pure autoloss for WW and also 9/25 at any shred of real hope to win.

The 7/25 is against the WW's favour and out of the 9/25 only 6/25 genuinely give WW a true shot at a win because they really require an unclear 4/way as has occurred here.

The odds aren't everything. PRs may tell and be readable but how do you know if the PR is Seer or Cop? Even if you had a top tier read on a PR, you're coinflipping that it's the PR who can catch you.

I don't for one second think this is the type of gamble to go for just in case Town unvoted Robert there )who had done NOTHING to Towntell at the point he was forced to claim). I think AoC told him to, hoping we'd unvote.

[RationalMadman]

Math was off*

[RationalMadman]

Then vote...

[RationalMadman]

For what it's worth, I think Enchant attempted to inentionally cheat.

When he said AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA

I interpreted it as him revealing a read on the only player starting with A and told Sirius that I had such an interpretation. (He said 'DOGS' after and had noted intention to investigate AgentofChaos).

That said, I genuinely would have reached every conclusion made regardless but I would like Enchant reprimanded, I know exactly what he tried to do there and I understood it.

[RationalMadman]

There was also another way he leaked the read on you. He'd outed intent to investigate you, would he be as angry if he didn't get a guilty that night?

Probably not.

Anyway, next time fight more, insist on voting the Hydra and go through with voting them. You might have swayed Vander.

[RationalMadman]

Also next time with a weak partner, get ready to bus them, prepare to towntell hard (you played troll-like and doomed yourself, I have done the same thing as scum earlier on this website, I was an idiot who didn't understand Mafia at all).

[RationalMadman]

Mafia is a game of much more strategy than luck, people just think it's luck because it takes a LOT of experience and maybe studying some psychology, to refine the 'skill' element.

[RationalMadman]

It's safer and better to practise in games like this (Micro, casual game) so you're doing the right thing.

[RationalMadman]

Gg

[RationalMadman]

I'd have probably mishammered here bad I been left alive.

[RationalMadman]

Had* though I did consider Xi wifoming with the reaction to AoC

[RationalMadman]

I'd have probably mishammered here bad I been left alive.

Why?

Day 1 left it pretty even but your Day 2 was far lazier and almost like you knew it was going to be a misfire on AoC the way you were acting.

[RationalMadman]

Ty for the congratulations.

[RationalMadman]

Can we see scum and dead PT?

[RationalMadman]

Please^