DEFCON Mafia 5.0: GAME OVER - NEW AMERICA FORMED


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Post Post #181 (isolation #0) » Thu Apr 29, 2021 12:04 pm

Post by joqiza »

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Post Post #211 (isolation #1) » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:49 pm

Post by joqiza »

VOTE: total war
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Post Post #212 (isolation #2) » Thu Apr 29, 2021 2:50 pm

Post by joqiza »

nice party... has anyone seen my plus one? i walked in with them, but now i can't find them anywhere. their name is marry...
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Post Post #216 (isolation #3) » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:11 pm

Post by joqiza »

so we submit our choices for troops as soon as defcon 4 starts

troops are like PRs it seems. i think all else equal we'd like town to have these powers?

troops are unique. only 1 person can have each troop. there are more players than troops, so not everyone gets one.

if there's a conflict with drafts (i.e. two or more people want the same troop) than whoever submits the PM to the mod first gets it. lmao.

therefore, i propose we hammer into defcon 4 at some coordinated or agreed upon time in thread, to maximize the ability for townies to procure their desired troop. we have the advantage of numbers, scum have the advantage of coordination: we should try to even that playing field.

at the least, all townies should have the troop draft PM to the mod ready and waiting to go as soon as we enter defcon 4.

this is assuming i'm not misunderstanding something about the mechs. plz correct me if so.
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Post Post #231 (isolation #4) » Thu Apr 29, 2021 4:57 pm

Post by joqiza »

i would also support a switch to randomization for the troop draft, if that's an option the mod would consider.
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Post Post #305 (isolation #5) » Fri Apr 30, 2021 7:49 am

Post by joqiza »

*drawing a summoning circle in pastel colors*

*lighting incense candles and placing them in the corners of the room*

*sprinkling rosemary and sage*

MARRY... O MISCHIEVOUS ONE..... I SUMMON YOU.... FROM THE DEPTHS OF THE INTERNET...... GRACE US WITH YOUR PRESENCE.....
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Post Post #306 (isolation #6) » Fri Apr 30, 2021 8:17 am

Post by joqiza »

There's a decent chance she forgot this site exists
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Post Post #309 (isolation #7) » Fri Apr 30, 2021 9:23 am

Post by joqiza »

Looking at the list again I think the one we should really try to get is submarine because it's dangerous in enemy hands. So if town gets it they can just hardclaim it.

Espionage also seems useful since it's just an investigative... maybe if someone rushes counterintelligence too that could be useful. Not sure if worth it but if a townie ended up with it they can hardclaim it and get resolved to ensure all alignment checks are real.

Idk what other troops are really that useful. Most of them seem protective which doesn't seem worth giving up basically a dayvig for.

Maybe some of them are useful to grab just to stop scum from getting them.
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Post Post #387 (isolation #8) » Sat May 01, 2021 4:33 am

Post by joqiza »

folks, after further research i have learned that not only are troop drafts based on whoever PMs the mod first in defcon 4, but defcon 4 itself starts not when deadline is reached / when defcon 5 is hammered, but rather when the mod posts that it is defcon 4
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Post Post #388 (isolation #9) » Sat May 01, 2021 4:39 am

Post by joqiza »

not sure i'm a huge fan of this system but when in rome
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Post Post #402 (isolation #10) » Sat May 01, 2021 5:59 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 401, SirCakez wrote:Soldier marry has not picked up their intelligence. I will draft a new cadet.
:igmeou:
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Post Post #404 (isolation #11) » Sat May 01, 2021 6:18 am

Post by joqiza »

Town

I'm fine with scum, but I find it a bit boring
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Post Post #413 (isolation #12) » Sat May 01, 2021 6:58 am

Post by joqiza »

yay
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Post Post #416 (isolation #13) » Sat May 01, 2021 7:02 am

Post by joqiza »

@Bell i'm not like bored atm but kinda feels like the game hasn't really started yet / is in opening stages and i'm eager to begin

also both marry and i won't have 2 newbie games completed on this site technically but we have other games on MU, etc.
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Post Post #419 (isolation #14) » Sat May 01, 2021 7:05 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 417, Bell wrote:here you're at and where you're coming from.
we are both refugees from the Lost Site of EpicMafia
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Post Post #424 (isolation #15) » Sat May 01, 2021 7:17 am

Post by joqiza »

marry the mod said we can post vocaroos as long as we put a transcript
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Post Post #426 (isolation #16) » Sat May 01, 2021 7:22 am

Post by joqiza »

i'm about to change the game

https://voca.ro/16bgXWOmBRj1

Spoiler: Transcript lol
O say can you see, by the dawn's early light,
What so proudly we hailed at the twilight's last gleaming,
Whose broad stripes and bright stars through the perilous fight,
O'er the ramparts we watched, were so gallantly streaming?
And the rocket's red glare, the bombs bursting in air,
Gave proof through the night that our flag was still there;
O say does that star-spangled banner yet wave
O'er the land of the free and the home of the brave?


i'm conftown now
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Post Post #432 (isolation #17) » Sat May 01, 2021 8:11 am

Post by joqiza »

never... those are 100% American-made pipes
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Post Post #509 (isolation #18) » Sun May 02, 2021 10:49 am

Post by joqiza »

would anyone mind fleshing out the bell divergent town/scum game for me btw?

mostly out of curiosity i don't really doubt it

actually a friend of mine who plays here regularly had mentioned something similar during team mafia
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Post Post #511 (isolation #19) » Sun May 02, 2021 11:30 am

Post by joqiza »

huh why
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Post Post #513 (isolation #20) » Sun May 02, 2021 11:44 am

Post by joqiza »

okay then
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Post Post #543 (isolation #21) » Sun May 02, 2021 4:32 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 519, mastina wrote:The joqiza-marry dynamic to me is very very strongly reminiscent of Ydrasse-pichu(Hectic), a dynamic that I don't think scum can create.
ha, this is kind of interesting

i actually happen to know ydrasse n hectic, they played together on my home site once. so i know what you're referring to. (actually ydrasse is the one who told me to sign up for this... she said the p-list was excellent.)

i'm not sure what you mean when you say "a dynamic scum can't create" though

marry and i have been playing mafia together for a long time and we can read each other pretty well. if she chooses to stick around i'll probably be able to give you a pretty good guess at her alignment, at some point. but not quite yet.
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Post Post #544 (isolation #22) » Sun May 02, 2021 4:34 pm

Post by joqiza »

also not to deflate the very spicy mastina wagon, but i'm pretty sure we don't lim anyone in defcon 4
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Post Post #571 (isolation #23) » Mon May 03, 2021 3:56 am

Post by joqiza »

so @mastina to be clear the unnerving thing about your read was the fact that you said you townread me AND marry. She really has not been present enough to have much of an idea abt her alignment besides rand. it's not that I'm saying you're WRONG it's that I feel like as the resident marrytologist I haven't even given my professional opinion yet... it's all a bit premature.

Maybe I'm being unfair tho and what you're saying is that you're putting us both town cuz if one of us is scum at some point in the future you'll know about it cuz one of us will snipe the other... and that's true... probably.

Worth noting that marry is kinda busy rn I think so may not be the uh final occupant of her slot
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Post Post #635 (isolation #24) » Mon May 03, 2021 9:57 am

Post by joqiza »

having a website was only holding back our true power. now our toxic hordes rampage across the internet
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Post Post #636 (isolation #25) » Mon May 03, 2021 10:06 am

Post by joqiza »

okay I'm sorry I didn't want to say it but I just can't contain myself anymore

The fact that Pooky has a join date of 2003 is fucking CRAZY

THAT'S SO LONG AGO
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Post Post #643 (isolation #26) » Mon May 03, 2021 10:14 am

Post by joqiza »

CAKE FOR EVERYONE.
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Post Post #645 (isolation #27) » Mon May 03, 2021 10:17 am

Post by joqiza »

I'm bored at work and I want to start nuking
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Post Post #646 (isolation #28) » Mon May 03, 2021 10:18 am

Post by joqiza »

There's a "yellow cake" joke here somewhere
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Post Post #734 (isolation #29) » Mon May 03, 2021 4:22 pm

Post by joqiza »

church would you mind adding a siggie for which one of you is talking when you post. would help me out a bit maybe
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Post Post #737 (isolation #30) » Mon May 03, 2021 4:24 pm

Post by joqiza »

i doubt anyone actually cares / knows to care about my take on this but i'll commit to a TR on marry at this point. put it on the books.

pedit: that's what i thought but just going forward
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Post Post #745 (isolation #31) » Mon May 03, 2021 4:34 pm

Post by joqiza »

@church

i always have a tough time explaining it which is why people never listen to me. mostly it's just pattern matching the way she's approached the game with how she usually does as town vs. scum.

i thought she might be town from her first few posts anyway just because she presumably read her role PM and hopped right into thread and she came off town to me there, but i wanted to wait and gauge her a bit more first.

the way she's approached pooky in particular feels like her town game to me. like i think she is just trying to get a grip on the game in an unfamiliar context in the way she knows how.

as either alignment she has a sort of "survivor" mentality where she's looking to almost make friends/alliances and that trips people up sometimes.

i don't have a 100% read rate on her, when we first started playing mafia together she used to trick me a lot, but i like to think that it's those early experiences that let me know what to look for. i once correctly read her as 3P in a game--ask her about that some time.
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Post Post #756 (isolation #32) » Mon May 03, 2021 4:56 pm

Post by joqiza »

i don't think marry/pooky are ever SvS even in the universes where i'm wrong about marry being town. but at that point i'm already off base i guess.

i don't really know how to explain what i see except to give the context that marry isn't typically a "nail scum to the cross on d1" kind of player. she usually shines more in lategame. her posts give me the sense that she was trying to find a couple townreads. and just like, trying to have fun and not get overwhelmed by the size of the table. this is a bigger crowd than both of us are used to i think.
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Post Post #758 (isolation #33) » Mon May 03, 2021 5:01 pm

Post by joqiza »

yeah that seems like a fair ask and i can do that
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Post Post #759 (isolation #34) » Mon May 03, 2021 5:07 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 752, The Church of Skitter wrote: Why do you think Marry approaches Pooky the way they did as town and what do you think she would do if she was scum?
Marry's read on Pooky seems unreasonably strong to me and tbh, that could be concerning? Like they were like "What no way Pooky is literally defending the motherland" or something I don't remember exactly but I personally want to poke at this more.
i feel like i didn't answer this directly so i guess i'll try to clarify that i don't think she would approach pooky that way at all if she were scum... i think if she were scum her "buddying" would be more subtle.

i also think her read on pooky isn't really as strong as you seem to be saying here, it feels more like an early vibe thing to me

regardless i think marry is entirely capable of defending / explaining for herself so i don't think i need to be stepping in here and saying these things for her. i encourage you and anyone to apply pressure if that's what you feel.
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Post Post #763 (isolation #35) » Mon May 03, 2021 5:33 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 760, The Church of Skitter wrote:
In post 759, joqiza wrote:i feel like i didn't answer this directly so i guess i'll try to clarify that i don't think she would approach pooky that way at all if she were scum... i think if she were scum her "buddying" would be more subtle.
The 2 personalities seem to match. I know you know marry more than I do but I'm not sure I agree with it. I think because its Pooky its possible.
In post 759, joqiza wrote:i also think her read on pooky isn't really as strong as you seem to be saying here, it feels more like an early vibe thing to me
Ya I'm also asking because it wouldn't be impossible for me to misunderstand it
I'll just reiterate what I said at the end of . I don't think I can do as good a job of answering your questions as she can herself and I have no issue with people pressuring her at this stage of the game. So I encourage you and everyone else to engage her directly when you have the chance.

Welcome Merlot. :)
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Post Post #834 (isolation #36) » Tue May 04, 2021 3:34 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 812, Merlot wrote:joqiza is fairly repping marry’s meta
Appreciate the note of confidence, but a tiny bit surprised just cuz I know you've played with us, but wasn't aware that you'd played much with marry in particular

I think you did articulate what I was trying to say better than I was able to though.
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Post Post #852 (isolation #37) » Tue May 04, 2021 4:30 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 836, Merlot wrote:
i spectated a lot of games on em before i played the few i did. i didn’t join them for personal reasons nor the spec chats but i kept up with them as they’re a lot of the reason why i’m here playing now
Ha, okay. I think you did mention similar to me once. I don't want to be weird about it I was just squinting for a sec cuz you described her play I think pretty well and in particular how she might play with me at the table and I couldn't recall a time we'd all played together.

But nothing you said seemed wrong and I think additionally you put words to something I was struggling to which was that she actually didn't engage me as directly as I think she would have as scum and was comfortable enough to do her own thing. At the risk of revealing my hand for future games, I think as scum she might actually engage with me more directly and try to "neutralize" me, in a similar fashion to how I engaged Koba in that newbie game we played a million years ago.
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Post Post #876 (isolation #38) » Tue May 04, 2021 6:32 am

Post by joqiza »

I went and looked at Pooky/Kanna in TM and I guess I can... sort of see what people are saying. Kind of. I think I'll amend my read to say that the way marry approached Pooky isn't the way I'd expect her to work a pocket as scum, but I guess more exotic shenanigans are possible. The prior for any two players being scum together is pretty low so I'm not super worried atm. I'll keep it in mind.
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Post Post #1040 (isolation #39) » Tue May 04, 2021 5:28 pm

Post by joqiza »

The way you two are arguing is wearing me out for some reason
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Post Post #1385 (isolation #40) » Wed May 05, 2021 12:14 pm

Post by joqiza »

hiii
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Post Post #1390 (isolation #41) » Wed May 05, 2021 12:32 pm

Post by joqiza »

i've only skimmed, but tbh i don't really get the comparison to sam mostly cuz idt ive ever actually voted sam for anything like that
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Post Post #1391 (isolation #42) » Wed May 05, 2021 12:36 pm

Post by joqiza »

look the sense i got was that there was weird vitriol towards her and i guess it's similar to how people treat sam in that sense, bc people are really awful to him sometimes, but i'm not sure the situations line up in my head besides tha
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Post Post #1392 (isolation #43) » Wed May 05, 2021 12:37 pm

Post by joqiza »

im a bit distracted atm so wanted to review the game on my own time / at my own pace, but i don't think mastina is a terrible lim here. the way she townlocked us was a bit weird marry
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Post Post #1394 (isolation #44) » Wed May 05, 2021 1:01 pm

Post by joqiza »

okay well if i do end up voting mastina i want it known that i have no ill will against her! actually i loved a lot of your posts @mastina, your one about me and marry bouncing sound waves off each other was super cute and made me smile. i didn't get the sense you're a bad player or anything either, actually i vibed with a lot of your reads and content but my concern is actually that you know too much. some of the conclusions feel reached before i can understand how the underlying evidence led you there
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Post Post #1401 (isolation #45) » Wed May 05, 2021 1:39 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 1398, Mognet wrote:Who is samp4palmer? Is this from another universe artwork Kupo?
sam is a player from our homesite... not sure how to describe, he's a very nice guy but he gets limmed a lot. not sure what other details would be helpful or if it's productive to dive into some random guy's playstyle whom none of you know. like i mentioned i'm also not sure exactly how it maps onto this situation for marry but i'm sure she'll clarify to me once she's back on
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Post Post #1444 (isolation #46) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:09 pm

Post by joqiza »

i enjoy your posts mognet kupo
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Post Post #1451 (isolation #47) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:18 pm

Post by joqiza »

i think i'm willing to hammer mastina, but i want to give her a chance to speak first
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Post Post #1454 (isolation #48) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:21 pm

Post by joqiza »

okay.
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Post Post #1457 (isolation #49) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:26 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 1456, Bell wrote:NGL, my read on Joqiza is going all over the place because I remember a particular brand of scum that coasted on a genuine meta read.
I don't really know what "coasted on a genuine meta read" means or how it applies to me this game.
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Post Post #1458 (isolation #50) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:27 pm

Post by joqiza »

I guess I understand that you're saying my only contribution is a read on marry but I find that annoying, regardless if it's accurate or not.
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Post Post #1461 (isolation #51) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:34 pm

Post by joqiza »

Ultimately I'm not really sure what else is needed from me at this stage of the game. I could write up a bunch about mastina but I don't think it's going to affect the way anything plays out today and there's enough content as is. I'll be... professional, in my hammer and I think that's the best thing I can do here?

If people want more reads or something from me I can do that. I have more jumbled thoughts atm than actual reads. I've focused on laying out my marry read because that's where I feel like I can make a difference to the game.
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Post Post #1464 (isolation #52) » Wed May 05, 2021 4:53 pm

Post by joqiza »

I don't like committing to things unless I feel good about them.

It's hard to feel good about anything with 24p at the table and no one resolved.

That's basically the crux of the issue. I think I'll be more expressive once I see a flip.
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Post Post #1466 (isolation #53) » Wed May 05, 2021 5:06 pm

Post by joqiza »

?

I said what I said about the hammer, I don't get why being uncertain is AI on D1 of a game. If you think it is, then you shouldn't.

Being more expressive about reads =/= being more expressive about the flipped slot... that's simply not what I'm saying. I'm saying the flip (not necessarily mastina's, but a flip in general) will help inform my reads on other slots.
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Post Post #1469 (isolation #54) » Wed May 05, 2021 5:09 pm

Post by joqiza »

I don't care to overstate my confidence just to appease you
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Post Post #1470 (isolation #55) » Wed May 05, 2021 5:10 pm

Post by joqiza »

I think I'm not sure I'm uncertain I don't know

these are all true things about me and I will continue to express myself this way for as long as I play mafia
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Post Post #1492 (isolation #56) » Thu May 06, 2021 2:09 am

Post by joqiza »

I'll hammer when I get off work today, which should be around 6pm cst
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Post Post #1531 (isolation #57) » Thu May 06, 2021 4:07 am

Post by joqiza »

Mognet I guess I don't really understand your issue with me. When I say something like "I think I'll be more expressive" or "I think I'll hammer" it's predicated with "I think" because it's a prediction of future behavior. If I wanted to commit to this I'd say something like "I promise to hammer" (note at this point I have actually gone ahead and given that commitment to hammer.)

At any given point I try to communicate in a way that is accurate to how I feel in the game. It's worth pointing out too that there's nothing prevent scum from saying "I'll do X" and then just... finding a reason not to do it.

As I've said before, if your issue with me is that I'm uncertain in the first place I think that you portraying something which is not scummy as a scumtell. On D1 of any game town is operating with minimal information, and any given player you wagon is likely to flip town just from prior probability. Of course, it's patently ridiculous to use that as a reason not to lim anyone, so the reality is you need to make a judgement call on who at the table is likely to flip +scum above rand. Overall the nature of D1 doesn't justify inaction, but it does justify uncertainty.

To me it feels like you are SR'ing me for the way I express myself which is why I react strongly to it I guess. If that's not your point then please clarify but I'm pretty sure I'm just the kind of person who says "I think I'll do X" rather than "I'll do X" and it's not really like I'm going to change that.
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Post Post #1542 (isolation #58) » Thu May 06, 2021 4:15 am

Post by joqiza »

Mognet when someone says "I think I'll go ahead and get myself a glass of water" do you start wondering "DAMN I wonder if they're going to get themselves a glass of water??? They said 'I think' that's so noncommital to whether they want that water or not."

That's what this push feels like to me.
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Post Post #1556 (isolation #59) » Thu May 06, 2021 4:26 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 1547, Mognet wrote:
In post 1542, joqiza wrote:Mognet when someone says "I think I'll go ahead and get myself a glass of water" do you start wondering "DAMN I wonder if they're going to get themselves a glass of water??? They said 'I think' that's so noncommital to whether they want that water or not."

That's what this push feels like to me.
Then you’re trivializing it Kupo. If someone said that IRL and I was at the fridge I would get it or ask them what they wanted. Again it’s not the uncertainty that is the question. It’s the motivation behind it and the context and the why. “I think I will vote” and “I think I will hammer” are common scum tells and if it’s really so nebulous you’d just move on and just hunt.
I actually am hunting btw, there's a reason I'm fixated on this and you can call it OMGUS but the cool thing about this setup is I only need to convince one person: myself :D

You've said that the "motivation and context" behind my vote is scummy but you've failed to sufficiently explain to me why that is true. I've tried to understand your perspective and I've offered my own and you seem unable to understand it. If you genuinely think saying "I think I'll hammer" is a scumtell then I suppose you'll need to do some revision to your methodology. As it is I think we're done here.
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Post Post #1560 (isolation #60) » Thu May 06, 2021 4:31 am

Post by joqiza »

I'll see you in defcon 1 buddy!
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Post Post #1842 (isolation #61) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:28 pm

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mastina flipped scum eavesdropper. her main utility to scum was served by confirming to them that there was no town eavesdropper. mastina made no effort to defend herself and there was zero resistance to the counterwagon. it's almost certain that scum was willing to let mastina go. and, based on how the early game progressed, they were probably accounting for it very early. therefore there's no reason to think that the POSITION of defending mastina yesterday is scum-indicative (the reasoning may still be.)

to be clear, i'm not arguing that scum were necessarily on wagon. scum have near-complete information and they can choose to position themselves on or around a wagon any way they choose. i'm saying that the positioning itself is closer to NAI because it's very unlikely that scum were "caught out."

i am willing to defend marry in that regard.
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Post Post #1847 (isolation #62) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:39 pm

Post by joqiza »

i think mognet is town as well but i don't really want to go into it, just think if he's scum he would be doing everything yesterday as performance art and it would be out of scumrange for a lot of players imo.
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Post Post #1849 (isolation #63) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:40 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 1846, Robert M Hunter wrote: Let's just say I am the town mirror version of this kind of thinking.
i'm not sure what this statement means
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Post Post #1851 (isolation #64) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:42 pm

Post by joqiza »

nvm i get it

i think it's blatantly obvious actually ftr so yeah
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Post Post #1853 (isolation #65) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:45 pm

Post by joqiza »

contingent on town!Mognet, Save the Dragons and maybe Church were positioned where I'd expect scum to be positioned around a TvT but i hadn't really finished my reading yet
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Post Post #1856 (isolation #66) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:48 pm

Post by joqiza »

i don't have a case prepared anything. these were just things i noticed that i wanted to explore.

the TvT between you and me, kupo.

my assumption is that scum were not focused on the wagons yesterday, but were instead planning forward.
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Post Post #1862 (isolation #67) » Sat May 08, 2021 12:58 pm

Post by joqiza »

the post that pinged me from Save the Dragons on rr . it feels like he is too aware of the fallacy of mognet's argument.

like i feel bad about this read in a sense cuz he was defending me there. but my intuition tells me that town reading my argument w/ mognet would be more likely to be unsure... or even just have their eyes glaze over.

i think mafia would deductively have the information to deduce it as a TvT quicker and so better understand... the intricacies of what was happening, if that makes sense?

i accept that the case i'm making here is largely circumstantial and it's not something i'm willing to commit to yet. it is also conditional on mognet actually being town. it's just where my mind is at rn.
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Post Post #1871 (isolation #68) » Sat May 08, 2021 1:15 pm

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In post 1865, Mognet wrote: Interesting idea.

I think I can be a hard read at times. What is prompting you to make arguments assuming I am town? Don’t get me wrong I am but I want to know where your head is Kupo.
i want to phrase this in a friendly way as possible but i think if you are town we view the game in very different ways and will probably struggle to communicate.

i'm willing to consider you town because I find you EoD content town-indicative. you went to very extreme lengths imo to defend mastina. the Level 0: that you were scum trying to defend your partner from the rope, is obviously wrong on its head. You are either Level 1: townie who was wrong, or Level 2: mafia who hoped we would townread you off Level 1 logic.

I don't dismiss the Level 2 possibility, I just think it's... hard to pull off? Idk how else to phrase it. Emotional content seems very genuine to me.

My initial reasoning for SR'ing you was that I read you as an experienced/veteran player and IMO you 1) treated an NAI phrase as a scumtell, and more importantly 2) doubled down it when confronted. And in experienced players this kind of logical positioning can be a tell... it is just something I've seen where scum stake out a position and don't update even when someone is towntelling. And IMO I was towntelling though of course that's hard to gauge.

to be clear you are still on watch from me. but i do think if you're scum here you're quite good. at being scum. if you're town... well... you have time to redeem yourself in my eyes.
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Post Post #1875 (isolation #69) » Sat May 08, 2021 1:29 pm

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there is a post by LLD yesterday where she appeared to believe marry's claim of eavesdropper. if you read it as genuine, i think it implies town!LLD--she wouldn't believe marry was eavesdropper while bussing her own eavesdropper, mastina.

that said, it's fakeable and i think LLD herself might be offended if i accused her of slipping, whether it's town-slipping or otherwise. i will just point it out and leave it there.

i have sam in my unsorted pile @mognet. sorry but i will have to give you a rain check on this one. i will say though at it pertains to this argument, scum opening up the day by pushing on town!LLD seems very ballsy.
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Post Post #2063 (isolation #70) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:32 am

Post by joqiza »

i feel like marry would've been more collected there as scum tbh
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Post Post #2067 (isolation #71) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:42 am

Post by joqiza »

well i've seen her play mafia before and she knows how to bus. actually she's hardbussed several times before and she rarely defends her partners as directly as she did w/ mastina against LLD. i think her frustration with LLD was genuine too altho the frustration is less AI.

also like i said earlier i really doubt the mastina wagon was some big shock to scum. there was a fair amount of pressure on her the day before. also LLD wasn't even the first vote on the mastina wagon. she was the one that actually effected the lim but i believe she was the third or fourth vote. so the wheels were already starting to spin at that point.
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Post Post #2072 (isolation #72) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:47 am

Post by joqiza »

marry btw since you're here i think the reason i didn't vibe with your sam comment is i adore sam and would never policy lim him ever
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Post Post #2073 (isolation #73) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:48 am

Post by joqiza »

it's irrelevant now i was just thinking about it
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Post Post #2080 (isolation #74) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:51 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2076, VFP wrote:
In post 2067, joqiza wrote:well i've seen her play mafia before and she knows how to bus. actually she's hardbussed several times before and she rarely defends her partners as directly as she did w/ mastina against LLD. i think her frustration with LLD was genuine too altho the frustration is less AI.

also like i said earlier i really doubt the mastina wagon was some big shock to scum. there was a fair amount of pressure on her the day before. also LLD wasn't even the first vote on the mastina wagon. she was the one that actually effected the lim but i believe she was the third or fourth vote. so the wheels were already starting to spin at that point.
Care to share the game?
LMFAO i can't literally my whole site (EpicMafia) got nuked and i have no records

on god though it happened i'll cite the games from memory:
- marry bussing Luciokek in Werewolves vs. Mafia 1.5
- marry hardbussing dia d1 of some game nbt hosted
- marry hardbussing Flygon slot d1 of the game I hosted before SPF subbed in for Flygon

prolly others that i can't remember. i actually can't prove it but i think you'll believe me, it would be absurd for me to be lying about this i think
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Post Post #2083 (isolation #75) » Sun May 09, 2021 9:53 am

Post by joqiza »

FWIW i didn't get the sense that the dcl/VFP slot was aligned with mastina I just think he's off base here
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Post Post #2090 (isolation #76) » Sun May 09, 2021 10:00 am

Post by joqiza »

look i'm gonna be honest

i feel uncomfortable knighting for marry so hard and i think if she's town she will be able to demonstrate she's town on her own

i think she's just town who thought the mastina wagon was weird, tried to engage, engaged with LLD, realized what LLD was saying, then went "welp" and realized she was boutta look scummy af if mastina did end up being mafia

it's just my 2c
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Post Post #2096 (isolation #77) » Sun May 09, 2021 10:05 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2092, marry wrote:joqiza u have no obligation to knight for me but it’s appreciated and i’ll do it back for you if i feel like i can provide insight into my meta on you. does that make sense, im still not sure your alignment even
ftr it's just that when we play our EM games i always roll my eyes when ilario townlocks spf for sketchy reasons so i feel uncomfortable taking that position now. it's not anything against you it's just i'm typically an anti-meta person so i feel like a hypocrite now.

also not to pressure you but like. i'm a bit surprised that you haven't really commented on my alignment at all cuz i feel like between the two of us i'm the easier read and you've usually townlocked me by now.
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Post Post #2099 (isolation #78) » Sun May 09, 2021 10:11 am

Post by joqiza »

it would be an honor to die by your hand.
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Post Post #2105 (isolation #79) » Sun May 09, 2021 10:18 am

Post by joqiza »

hmm

maybe it will help if i kinda share my perspective

i basically don't know any of you other than marry, i don't play here very much. actually i've been doing this thing where i play on different sites w/ different communities because i've been trying to better figure out tells that transcend personal meta

when playing in different communities for the first time i've noticed there's sort of a "web" of meta that already exists among people who know each other

when a bunch of people on d1 start SR'ing another person for meta reasons, it's often a decent climate for a scum flip

even if i can't see too well myself, i can sort of read the gamestate in this fashion

i believe marry's attitude may have come from a similar place here. personally i wasn't 100% sure on mastina, but i did think the atmosphere was conducive for her to flip scum because of the people who knew her SRing her. i think marry had similar comments and i think this could explain her position on mastina's wagon while independently TRing her.

does that make any sense @VFP?
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Post Post #2170 (isolation #80) » Sun May 09, 2021 12:53 pm

Post by joqiza »

i feel a bit directionless atm. i ended up reconsidering my StD read cuz i liked their response to the nexus pressure
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Post Post #2173 (isolation #81) » Sun May 09, 2021 1:09 pm

Post by joqiza »

hate to break it to you mognet but i'm considering voting nexus instead :P i feel like he came off a bit worse in the exchange with StD and marry
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Post Post #2174 (isolation #82) » Sun May 09, 2021 1:14 pm

Post by joqiza »

i'd initially liked nexus for . i felt like the way he followed up on et al was townie. but StD asked him somewhere earlier something like "do you read me as terrorist?" which reminded me that nexus could be working a genuine read here and still be scum, if he's looking for 3P. and it's noticeable that he fixated on the responses to the nightkill, which was performed by the terrorist.
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Post Post #2178 (isolation #83) » Sun May 09, 2021 1:36 pm

Post by joqiza »

VOTE: Nexus

I don't really have a big lead here but I want to see what shakes out. nexus has seemed like he's been hunting more for 3P today, and his vote yesterday seems compatible with a bus to me.

not 100% sure what the VC is but for transparency i'd consider switching to t3 too. i don't read vfp as aligned with mastina rn. she seemed interested in possibly limming his slot and he was also striking a course both yesterday and today that's very visible and gains him no favor if he's scum. i feel like his pushes/shades are just gonna end with him getting nuked
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Post Post #2179 (isolation #84) » Sun May 09, 2021 1:43 pm

Post by joqiza »

prismognet, bell, entity, marry, cephrir, lld, gorilla, and robert m are in my town* bin

* town here being simply not russian. i've no idea how to look for terrorist tbh. in terms of info and alignment they just seem like spicy town rn.

deathnote, deasvail, vfp, toog, titus, sam, and vax i also kinda think are town but im not as confident as the aforementioned

i want to clarify this because this thing often happens in games where i end up defending my townleans more than my actual townreads. it's just a function of consensus and who ends up pressured.
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Post Post #2190 (isolation #85) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:43 pm

Post by joqiza »

Bell fwiw I acknowledge and I do think vfp's was a bad post. i'll noodle on it. the underlying activity read doesn't speak much to me.
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Post Post #2192 (isolation #86) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:49 pm

Post by joqiza »

me desperately defending marry from all the SR's

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Post Post #2194 (isolation #87) » Sun May 09, 2021 4:51 pm

Post by joqiza »

if she flips scum i commit seppuku
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Post Post #2353 (isolation #88) » Mon May 10, 2021 1:24 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 2313, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Him claiming it doesn't make him more townier it makes him NAI for that.
Yeah I think this is a good point. Like my sense was that he was claiming an anti-town role and I figured a scum with an anti-town role would just... hide. Like try to avoid attention for as long as possible to be able to use the role for as many nights as possible. But I guess that might not be the case if they'd be narrowed down the next day anyway.

Also I'll say I could kind of vibe a bit with his uncertainty of how to play optimally.

I'm fine with resolving a slot with an anti-town role, it just wasn't my first thought for where scum would be. His other posts felt nullish imo.
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Post Post #2354 (isolation #89) » Mon May 10, 2021 1:28 pm

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In post 2353, joqiza wrote: I'm fine with resolving a slot with an anti-town role, it just wasn't my first thought for where scum would be. His other posts felt nullish imo.
To clarify this, it's not surprising to me that a scum would have such a role. Just that they'd let everyone know about it.
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Post Post #2440 (isolation #90) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:51 pm

Post by joqiza »

His behavior is weird and antagonistic but I don't really see why it would be scum motivated
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Post Post #2441 (isolation #91) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:56 pm

Post by joqiza »

Like the dude wants to die so bad, not only is he trying to wagon himself, he's taunting people for being unable to lim him in a table full of dayvigs
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Post Post #2442 (isolation #92) » Mon May 10, 2021 6:58 pm

Post by joqiza »

The reason it doesn't make sense as wifom is here I am TRing him for it and someone's just gonna say "nah joq you're being a fucking idiot" and nuke him anyway
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Post Post #2443 (isolation #93) » Mon May 10, 2021 7:07 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 2422, gorilla wrote:I reiterate that this posturing over wagons is tiresome and every current suspect should probably be getting glassed on day 3 barring something like a cop clear on them.
I'll x2 this.

Of the list gorilla had earlier the only slot I'm actually interested in trying to save is the mognet one. Will go into that tmrw more @Vax. Rest can get chopped afaic.
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Post Post #2485 (isolation #94) » Tue May 11, 2021 6:07 am

Post by joqiza »

I don't think scumhunting vs. not scumhunting is really a salient accusation in a multiball tbh. Probably if Nexus is commie some of his reads have been genuine observations about who he thinks might flip terrorist. I'm referring to his read on Et Al being LAMIST, and his 1/2 read on marry/DTD based on their reactions to the nightkill.

My reasons for voting Nexus are:
1) I can see him being aligned with mastina on rr. He makes dismissive comments toward her in first half of the game then emerges with confidence once she's being wagoned.
2) most of his comments are just shade with no follow-up, like a guy in among us saying "red sus" over and over again
3) I don't think he's particularly towntold in response to pressure
4) the other wagons aren't doing it for me atm
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Post Post #2495 (isolation #95) » Tue May 11, 2021 6:35 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2492, marry wrote:
In post 2491, DeathNote wrote:
In post 2490, marry wrote:also someone said it already but i agree with the fact that VFP, nexus, and robert will all likely just. be nuked. daystart tomorrow??? so does it truly matter who goes over today
I'm so ready. I wanna I wanna I wanna
people can start calling shots at this point. whos nuking who. lets be efficient about this
Idk if you're being serious but there's no reason to give scum a roadmap for who to nightkill and who claims silos
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Post Post #2502 (isolation #96) » Tue May 11, 2021 6:44 am

Post by joqiza »

My other pocket scumread is Church btw because they keep shading people I think might just be town playing poorly. They did it with Mog earlier and with Rob just now. They're relatively active I guess and if either of those slots flip scum then Church is probably just town. But that's the other slot I keep feeling like I wanna vote in the back of my mind rn.
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Post Post #2576 (isolation #97) » Wed May 12, 2021 2:03 am

Post by joqiza »

Bell idg where the confidence comes from and I'm still stuck on VFP. I took another look and I really.. don't think the slot is aligned with mastina.

- his call-out of cephrir for being scum if mastina is town felt uninformed of mastina's alignment
- I think he believes his marry read

If he flips scum I think he flips terrorist. Which would be hype but that feels like a lottery ticket read to me. This is the kind of situation where I'd usually offer a quid pro quo to resolve the deadlock, i.e. you lead my vote today, if it flips town I lead yours tomorrow, but I don't think that'll work in this setup cuz tomorrow is gonna be about the nuking.

That said on rr I also felt like this was a better representation of where my head's at rn:

VOTE: Church of Skitter

There's a lot of people suspicious of this slot but no one's quite taken the step to vote them, so let me be the first.

If the dueling wagons remain between Nexus/VFP my vote is still spiritually on Nexus ig but tbh after the rr I don't care for either. Nexus is sort of like +scum above rand versus Church which is an actual scumread. I don't TR T3 either. I think my stance on Robert is clear.
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Post Post #2577 (isolation #98) » Wed May 12, 2021 2:13 am

Post by joqiza »

@Lambdadelta Robert is not happening today. No one wants him. Respectfully I'm gonna ask you to give your take on one of the other wagons. If you're stuck on Rob just get a group together to nuke him tomorrow. Marry will literally do whatever you ask her to do so that's one already.
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Post Post #2588 (isolation #99) » Wed May 12, 2021 3:52 am

Post by joqiza »

FWIW I also townread Bell. I just have no reason to sheep him. Maybe he is a great scumhunter, idk. I've never played with him and so far this game he's unproven. If you have reason to trust him then sure. Tbh I think sheeping can be valid and there are certain players whose reads I take into account even if I can't see it myself. But that kind of thing has to be earned, for me.

I don't think anything VFP did is unfakeable either. He is a townlean, not a townread. Idm if the wagon goes through I just don't care to be on it.

With respect to the marry read. My intuition after reading the game is that scum was willing to let mastina go very early. The fact that she flipped eavesdropper implies group scum did not expect her to even make it to the nuke stage, else they'd have her pick a silo. The next part is hard for me to explain, but I feel like scum wouldn't actually start off the next day with a hard push. They'd have placed themselves on the mastina wagon in ways where they would not be immediately suspicious. At the start of the next day, I think they'd be more likely to allow town to step back and try to eat each other. Some townies will look bad because they defended mastina, by virtue of lack of information. Other town will call them out on it. Why, as scum, get your own hands dirty? Just hang back and pick a few villagers to defend during the TvTs.
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Post Post #2591 (isolation #100) » Wed May 12, 2021 4:07 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2587, Titus wrote:
In post 2586, innocentvillager wrote:hm it seems like joqiza and titus at least are pretty against this elimination?

even if they weren't, i don't think no one thinking VFP is town here is scum!indicative especially when they are easily picking up votes

idk ur other reason seems fine but this one feels forced and that's not necessarily scum!inidcative for u im just saying i don't necessarily agree with this reason
I do disagree with this. While I could be wrong, I strongly feel VFP is town. The fact they are getting votes indicates a hive mind.

Second, if VFP were scum, I'd expect Nexus or Robert to go through unless all three were scum.
I actually want to distance myself from this particular line of logic tho, I don't really agree with this as a reason to TR VFP.
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Post Post #2595 (isolation #101) » Wed May 12, 2021 4:43 am

Post by joqiza »

@IV I think most resistance reads are just trash honestly, it's totally conditional on the setup mechanics and how close scum are to parity / achieving their win condition. Like the implication that scum!VFP ---> one of Nexus or Robert goes through has this intermediate step of all 4 group scum piling on one of them and it doesn't actually make sense to me given half the town is about to have access to warheads
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Post Post #2625 (isolation #102) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:27 am

Post by joqiza »

Church what u r saying is that Bell is an investigative with a red check on VFP and I'm going to literally just state that bc it is incredibly unlikely that of 4 group scum at least 1 isn't aware or won't pick up on that at this point. Whereas there are town PRs we want to pick up on that who might miss it. The discussion is now over, it's your theory, Bell doesn't need to confirm or deny and we shouldn't have other people theorize further either.
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Post Post #2626 (isolation #103) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:27 am

Post by joqiza »

VOTE: VFP
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Post Post #2649 (isolation #104) » Wed May 12, 2021 5:47 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2633, The Church of Skitter wrote:
In post 2625, joqiza wrote:Church what u r saying is that Bell is an investigative with a red check on VFP and I'm going to literally just state that bc it is incredibly unlikely that of 4 group scum at least 1 isn't aware or won't pick up on that at this point. Whereas there are town PRs we want to pick up on that who might miss it. The discussion is now over, it's your theory, Bell doesn't need to confirm or deny and we shouldn't have other people theorize further either.
Not that many people posted so it’s possible that by the time scum just come back the thread gets locked and there’s nothing they can do. I think you might be surprised, we might be able to pull a fast one on them.
Idk wtf this means but regardless this + the continued absence is enough that I think we should rope him. Battleship just goes on Bell at this point if it flips scum. Also ftr if it flips terrorist my reads are still good.
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Post Post #2703 (isolation #105) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:14 am

Post by joqiza »

Image
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Post Post #2717 (isolation #106) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:29 am

Post by joqiza »

fellas im just gonna claim.... not sure if i should be continuing to hide to provide cover but i want to participate in the fun and i feel like this way is easier

i was able to nab the submarine. didn't realize that terrorist could duplicate it when i drafted it but at the least this means the russians don't have one
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Post Post #2748 (isolation #107) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:45 am

Post by joqiza »

marry
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Post Post #2750 (isolation #108) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:45 am

Post by joqiza »

LOL
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Post Post #2752 (isolation #109) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:46 am

Post by joqiza »

marry i get like these waves of paranoia that you're scum tricking me again
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Post Post #2762 (isolation #110) » Fri May 14, 2021 7:49 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2758, marry wrote:
In post 2752, joqiza wrote:marry i get like these waves of paranoia that you're scum tricking me again
forget my old self this is my new self. ive rebranded
okay i believe you T_T
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Post Post #2812 (isolation #111) » Fri May 14, 2021 8:17 am

Post by joqiza »

if we wanna be smart about this i think we can wait 6 to 12 hours or so to let everyone share relevant mech info, and then we get blasting (?)

if there's a +EV set of guidelines for defcon 1 that would be good to know as well but i assume it's... just a kinda free for all thing
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Post Post #2904 (isolation #112) » Fri May 14, 2021 9:54 am

Post by joqiza »

im kinda hoping we just get lucky with the terrorist
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Post Post #2930 (isolation #113) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:12 am

Post by joqiza »

@iv fwiw i found your thoughts helpful re: the vfp wagon yesterday and i think youve played fine espec. for a replacement. i personally tr mognet but his play was kind of divisive so that's probably contributed to the pressure on you more than anything you yourself did
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Post Post #2960 (isolation #114) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:36 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 1772, Mognet wrote:
In post 1767, The Entity wrote:I'm going to need some hardcore convincing to not instantly turn Mognet into a radioactive crater at the earliest opportunity.
Then do it.

If I die for defending a good friend of mine so be it.

I would do it again and again and again.

This btw is defense Titus.

I feel it is defending Mastina’s character here.
In post 2047, Mognet wrote:We have 80+ pages of content.

RVS is done. We need to progress.

Reading the thread will help we have a scum flip.

You are pushing me though. You’re pushing me to give you free reign to do whatever you want carte Blanche despite scummy behavior because it’s Mother’s Day. Not gonna happen.

I did not discard the meta, I used it but I reached an incorrect conclusion which I can improve from.

I did not miss it, Nexus was frustrated. Pure and simple. It’s NAI.

I am listening. I am waiting for you to answer my fucking questions instead of attacking my play.

If it becomes clear you won’t actually attempt to have reasoning for what you’re doing I have faith when more players come on they can and will elim and wagon you.

I would much rather get the scum you don’t want wagoned but I will take you if I have to compromise.
In post 2163, Mognet wrote: Why do you want Nexus. You have no reasoning in your ISO.
If wanting you to provide reasoning is why I get elimmed you’re next.
I said you pushed me to let you do as you want and to let you be scummy as fuck because Mother’s Day. I already explained that. Stop bringing up points I already addressed.
I saw your evidence and came to the wrong conclusion. Part of being a moogle.
Yes I am getting in the way of a second day of elims without reason and a popularity contest.
Moogles don’t win those.

I am not playing hero I just want you to provide reasoning.
This town is not solid or weak. We have no idea because we’ve had no wagons.
If I die to make you give reasons for reads so fucking be it.
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Post Post #2964 (isolation #115) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:38 am

Post by joqiza »

@nexus give me your thoughts on the posts i quoted
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Post Post #2968 (isolation #116) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:40 am

Post by joqiza »

i think it should be recalled
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Post Post #2974 (isolation #117) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:42 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2970, innocentvillager wrote:actually nexus feels kind of obvtown for not even iso’ing me before nuking? Even when I flip green i don’t think going after nexus is correct
i don't necessarily disagree with you but let's not just let him off the pressure

make him take ownership of his read
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Post Post #2986 (isolation #118) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:51 am

Post by joqiza »

iv assuming that i'm correct on your alignment and not just making a fool of myself

i think just like

being quietly towny, making genuine reads and observations, etc. not worrying too much about anything and just like... being Town is the best thing you can do for us here

you're off the hook in a sense. you're free. but the way you can help us is by pressuring Nexus

make yourself so towny that it's something he needs to address as the deadline for recalling approaches

give us insight to his alignment via that
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Post Post #2991 (isolation #119) » Fri May 14, 2021 10:55 am

Post by joqiza »

I think the "don't recall your nukes" is something every townie should keep in mind because it's true that you want to lean towards to ensure more town-controlled kills

but here's the thing, that argument only applies when it's coming from YOU

it doesn't make sense to apply it to other people... cuz you don't know their alignment. we don't KNOW if nexus's nuke is a town-controlled kill and if it's heading for a slot you tr there's no reason not to want it recalled

also having the logic of "never recall" as a S.O.P. gives scum more flexibility in not having to recall even if their target is towntelling
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Post Post #2994 (isolation #120) » Fri May 14, 2021 11:02 am

Post by joqiza »

uhhh hold on, i want to make it clear that i express my opinions with extreme confidence, but don't just assume they're correct cuz of that, i only do that cuz i'm a Man
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Post Post #3063 (isolation #121) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:12 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3060, Titus wrote:DV, STD is pretty obvtown
you used that same word yesterday to describe VFP's pushes on marry. i'm surprised that you're still using it so liberally

what makes them obvtown?
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Post Post #3071 (isolation #122) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:22 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3066, Titus wrote:
In post 3063, joqiza wrote:
In post 3060, Titus wrote:DV, STD is pretty obvtown
you used that same word yesterday to describe VFP's pushes on marry. i'm surprised that you're still using it so liberally

what makes them obvtown?
Their opening today
for my own edification here, what exactly puts the obv in the obvtown wrt their opening posts?

like i cracked open the iso and skimmed thru their posts today

they're fine, but...
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Post Post #3077 (isolation #123) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:25 pm

Post by joqiza »

uh
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Post Post #3078 (isolation #124) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:25 pm

Post by joqiza »

how does fine == obvtown ??
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Post Post #3080 (isolation #125) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:26 pm

Post by joqiza »

do i use this word in a different way? obvtown for me is like, i'm +90% sure the slot flips town.
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Post Post #3085 (isolation #126) » Fri May 14, 2021 5:31 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3083, Titus wrote:
In post 3080, joqiza wrote:do i use this word in a different way? obvtown for me is like, i'm +90% sure the slot flips town.
I use it more like 75 percent and the reasoning should be visible to those reading the thread
okay... i guess we just think of the term different lmao cuz 75% rn is like literally just rand
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Post Post #3143 (isolation #127) » Sat May 15, 2021 1:28 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3136, Nexus wrote:You've got 12 hours to make a compelling case for Mognet's slot being town because all I see is a lot of crying about mastina and general waffle and annoying posts, and iv has not done anything to endear themself to me.
What exactly do you think was scum!Mognet's plan here? Do you think he rolls into the game, opens his role PM to see Covert Ops, and then decides "you know what? I'm going to try to antagonize as many players as the table as I can. Because this game isn't hard enough with just my shit role."

The posts I linked show that he's well aware of how the path he was on was gonna end: with a nuke to the face. He stated multiple times he was willing to die--I think he even wanted it tbh.
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Post Post #3147 (isolation #128) » Sat May 15, 2021 1:57 am

Post by joqiza »

T3 tbh I don't really get the motivation behind choosing Fail Safe. Like it just seems like a silo but worse. With a silo you have the option to nuke ppl back if you want to, but you get to like.. you know, choose. I guess fail safe let's you nuke someone if you get nightkilled but did you really expect to get nightkilled.
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Post Post #3152 (isolation #129) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:24 am

Post by joqiza »

@Vax I didn't say that. I don't see the motivation as any alignment, like maaaybe the terrorist but sub still seems optimal for them.
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Post Post #3162 (isolation #130) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:05 am

Post by joqiza »

I am leaning towards nuking you Titus for the sake of disclosure
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Post Post #3164 (isolation #131) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:07 am

Post by joqiza »

it's a turn of phrase, I'm letting you know before you launch your own weapon cuz it would feel dirty otherwise
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Post Post #3168 (isolation #132) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:15 am

Post by joqiza »

i mean i liked titus's vote and reasoning on mastina initially, but since then i've found it hard to vibe with anything she's been putting out. i know we were both defending VFP but i couldn't vibe with the reasoning and today i'm finding it hard to connect again.

like let's review what happened yesterday
- titus and i are defending vfp
- i bring up to titus that i have some issues with her logic
- titus's defense is that she reads vfp as town and the wagonomics argument follows the alignment, rather than the other way

today titus says StD is obvtown, and... well, i'm still not 100% sure what happened there, but either obvtown is just a phrase titus uses to denote people who no more likely to be town than rand, or titus does townread StD from their opening comments but says that the read should be self evident and no further clarification is needed

like to put it simply there is an approach here which we are not able to observe
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Post Post #3169 (isolation #133) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:16 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3167, Titus wrote:Aren't you curious as to why those reads?
yes
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Post Post #3170 (isolation #134) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:16 am

Post by joqiza »

particularly the entity as i don't find that slot scummy. robert idgaf honestly
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Post Post #3176 (isolation #135) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:48 am

Post by joqiza »

@Titus I never called you an "unreadable mess," those are your words, not mine. As for jumping to attack... pushing a scumread inherently means going on the offense a bit. I've brought up my concerns with you, you have the choice of what you want to do in response.
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Post Post #3181 (isolation #136) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:52 am

Post by joqiza »

I do think you're a difficult read I just don't like you phrasing it as though I were trying to attack you personally. That wasn't my intent.
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Post Post #3183 (isolation #137) » Sat May 15, 2021 3:55 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3179, Titus wrote:What is your entity read?
If this was directed to me, I townread Entity's defense of the Mognet slot towards LLD in particular. I'm on phone so don't have the quote in particular but he appealed to her in a way that made me think he was invested in keeping the slot alive. In general I think the Mognet/Entity interactions were ++town for both of them.
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Post Post #3184 (isolation #138) » Sat May 15, 2021 4:05 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3172, Titus wrote:This game has been a repeat of people demanding things before the evidence supports it.
What exactly do you think this applies to? Like the only thing I think I "demanded" was an explanation for some of your reads. It would be one thing if they were gut-reads in RVS but we're 3000 posts deep and you're outing what I took to be fairly strong statements.
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Post Post #3187 (isolation #139) » Sat May 15, 2021 4:21 am

Post by joqiza »

I think if you called gorilla obvtown that would make sense to me. I just don't understand why the term is being applied to Save the Dragons.

I'm not even asking this in a confrontational way, I just like, want to see your perspective, to understand your own process and read you but also to help possibly inform me on StD.

There's no need to case gorilla if we all agree he's town but if there was disagreement then yes, I'd expect people to offer their reasoning on him rather than just saying "he's obvious town it's self evident, end of story."
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Post Post #3203 (isolation #140) » Sat May 15, 2021 9:12 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3188, Titus wrote:So you're saying his posts are town, it's fine but waste your time anyway?

Ok I will.
Not at all what I said, I said his posts were fine, aka they didn't strike me one way or another. is actually quite helpful. Like I think I agree with your take on him after reading the posts you put together and your interpretation.

I'm sitting here wondering why you think I'm wasting your time by asking you to explain stuff like that. Mognet was annoying because he asked people to explain reads that he himself
didn't even disagree with.
Like he'd townread a player and then in the next post ask someone to explain why they weren't chainsawing for that very same player. It was exhausting.

That's not at all what I was doing. I was asking for elaboration on a read that I didn't have myself. Partially this is an investigative thing, cuz I'm wondering if the reason you're seeing the game differently is because you're working with a different level of information than I am. But it's not just that. Mafia is a collaborative process and I was also just wondering if there's something out there I'd missed.

I understand it can be frustrating to explain something you feel to be obvious but it's a part of the game.
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Post Post #3208 (isolation #141) » Sat May 15, 2021 9:30 am

Post by joqiza »

Hm, okay. Yeah for me I think about it in terms of the prior probability, which is like, 75% or so that any given players you look at flips town. So at the start of the game everyone is "null" but in a sense that means they're still more likely to flip town than scum just by #'s, as you said.

Then when I say someone is towny or scummy, what I mean is they've done what I consider to be a towntell (behavior which town does at a greater % than scum) or a scumtell (vice versa), respectively.

So null, or "fine" for me is in a sense, still towny in terms of the prior. I'm more thinking about the posterior probability after tells are considered, and whether it's higher or lower than the prior from rand.
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Post Post #3210 (isolation #142) » Sat May 15, 2021 9:33 am

Post by joqiza »

Like at the beginning of any given game I play I could say "it's obvious that players A and B are not a scumteam together" and be right 99% of the time just because the chances of picking out an SvS pair are so low. But it doesn't really mean as much you know? Like you could just getting lucky.

I don't want to derail the convo into game theory, I'm just a stats guy so I find it interesting.
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Post Post #3212 (isolation #143) » Sat May 15, 2021 9:44 am

Post by joqiza »

@Titus

This series of posts struck me as pretty towny from the Entity slot--these are the ones I was referring to earlier.

He appeals directly to LLD, in a personal manner, to express his read on Mognet. He then appeals to Mognet directly to try to get him to change his behavior.

I really doubt the two are aligned from , and his investment in keeping Mognet alive reads town to me. I don't really buy the theory that Entity is scum trying to keep a toxic town slot alive... I feel like... he wouldn't appeal that way to LLD if that were the case, and I don't think scum would do it in the first place while VFP was being run up.
In post 2214, The Entity wrote:
In post 2212, Lady Lambdadelta wrote:Honestly I tried to hunt something I thought might be scummier but I can't deal with this shit in this game anymore.

I'm getting a seance from beyond the grave that pooky wants us to kill moogle fucker

vote:Mognet
Lexi there is no way this shit is scum, I'm sorry. If you just wanna YOLOyeet someone to get to nukes then fine but I do not believe Mognet is scum here.

Full disclosure I'm fairly sure Equinox would support a yeet on Mognet so you can appeal to him I guess.

I'm tempted to join the Mognet yeet for the sake of gamestate but I don't think it'll flip scum and I'll be honest the idea of only yeeting scum is v appealing to me after the righteous mastina thing yesterday
In post 2218, The Entity wrote:I genuinely wish I was still a mod so I could figure out who the fuck Mognet is and be done with it. But whatever.

@Mognet.

You are not helping the town, despite how much you think you are.
Maybe you're scum. On the off-chane you're town, please.
I get where you are. You think you are being the most rational and that your logic is unassailable and therefore you should keep fighting the good fight against all us plebs who aren't willing to accept your gospel.

Here's the thing.
DEFCON has a long history on this site. Your assertion that the majority of people don't want to lolnuke is actually probably very far from the truth. The entire appeal of this brand of games is that you get to lolnuke people. It doesn't matter scum or town. Go read some of these previous games. Not for meta, but for reading the Elmo-Dancing-On-A-Toilet shitshows they become. That's the fun. That's the draw.

Here's the thing.
You're sitting here crying about people picking off "not friends". I don't even know how to begin to break down this site's dynamics, but you're flat out wrong.
LLD got into a death tunnel on me the last DEFCON despite us being "friends".
You're also ENTIRELY basing your overreaction on ONE post from DeathNote against T3? Like what the fuck?

Here's the thing.
In a game like this, people will empty vote and not really give a fuck.
If people were empty voting you without reason, yeah, I'd expect it. But it seems like you're just picking a bone with the empty votes to win some intellectual superiority race that only YOU are running.
Do... do you think the people throwing down empty votes are all unaware that... they're throwing down empty votes?
Or do you think every person that has done it is scum?
Because... at some point, you have to accept that unless literally every person who has transgressed you is scum, that you're throwing some undue shit at townies somewhere, here.

Here's the thing.
You pulled this same kind of wah wah grandstanding bullshit yesterday when we were on the one-way train to scumtown with the mastina wagon.
You completely ignored my well-reasoned case for why mastina was actually scum yesterday and decided to grandstand about autism instead of focusing on the game.
Nobody owes you anything. There are a few of us that will continue to try to win this game regardless of your roadblocks. I happen to believe you're town, but given the gamestate, I would wager there's a surging tide of townspeople who do NOT think your actions are coming from a town mindset.

I'm begging you -- as the king of egomania in many ways, please fucking step back and try to participate rather than be an antagonistic presence in the game.
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Post Post #3213 (isolation #144) » Sat May 15, 2021 9:46 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3211, Titus wrote:I'm not a stats girl. I'm a social psychologist when it comes to mafia. I look at motivations and thus motivation is how you sort me.

(By motivation, I mean what a player does and wants, not their passion level or rationale.)
I can respect/understand that!
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Post Post #3222 (isolation #145) » Sat May 15, 2021 10:29 am

Post by joqiza »

I'm willing to submit the kill order if this is something you feel strongly about. I can see him flipping town easily, but I don't think it'll be a big loss. I trust you and I have some measure of faith in your reads after yesterday.
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Post Post #3228 (isolation #146) » Sat May 15, 2021 10:45 am

Post by joqiza »

Okay, well that works too xD
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Post Post #3254 (isolation #147) » Sat May 15, 2021 1:59 pm

Post by joqiza »

@Bell I'm the submarine. I claimed earlier, I plan on just using it like a silo.
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Post Post #3259 (isolation #148) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:06 pm

Post by joqiza »

@Bell Yes. I was refreshing the page around the defcon switch so I figured I might get a good pick. I didn't trust myself with an investigative, but taking the sub seemed like a guaranteed benefit I could get for town.

When I drafted it I didn't realize the terrorist had the ability to duplicate, I thought I would deny it from both scum alignments. But I'm happy w/ the choice regardless.
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Post Post #3264 (isolation #149) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:09 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3260, DeasVail wrote: Also it’s vengeful only against Russian kills hence why people read T3 as town I believe
Wait what?
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Post Post #3265 (isolation #150) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:11 pm

Post by joqiza »

Oh, you mean the nightkill missile. I thought you meant the retaliatory day nuke thing.
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Post Post #3279 (isolation #151) » Sat May 15, 2021 2:51 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3273, Vaxkiller wrote:Nexus and IV shit was scum theater

I said it.
The thought actually flashed across my mind, mostly cuz IV seemed like he really didn't want anyone to launch a counternuke at Nexus. Tho if the Mognet slot flips scum I might not be able to show my face on this site anymore.

Curious why you want me to nuke specifically, but either way I'm happy to go next--once the current salvo gets resolved.
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Post Post #3317 (isolation #152) » Sun May 16, 2021 12:18 pm

Post by joqiza »

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Post Post #3378 (isolation #153) » Sun May 16, 2021 1:27 pm

Post by joqiza »

I think we should wait for the RMH flip tbh
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Post Post #3420 (isolation #154) » Sun May 16, 2021 3:59 pm

Post by joqiza »

Will be doing some rr'ing in prep for a missile launch--I'll aim for firing sometime tmrw.

@marry would you like to bounce thoughts off you when you're available
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Post Post #3421 (isolation #155) » Sun May 16, 2021 4:04 pm

Post by joqiza »

would like to*
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Post Post #3423 (isolation #156) » Sun May 16, 2021 4:07 pm

Post by joqiza »

Philosophically I've always been on the side of "it's the responsibility of the observer to read correctly, rather than the job of the villager to perform."

But as far as mis-elims go, that was one of the more acceptable ones I've seen.
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Post Post #3429 (isolation #157) » Sun May 16, 2021 4:59 pm

Post by joqiza »

I think Marry is town still but I'm gonna have a hard time explaining it. It's on me I'm obligated to explain my reads but I'm just getting tired of this one in particular
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Post Post #3430 (isolation #158) » Sun May 16, 2021 5:03 pm

Post by joqiza »

A lot of it is just personal mannerisms/tells but also I feel like mastina was truth-telling when she said marry and I couldn't ever be scum because we were bouncing sound waves off each other or whatever. Like it was wild but it was the kinda shit I don't think ppl can make up I think she really saw it that way.
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Post Post #3455 (isolation #159) » Mon May 17, 2021 1:16 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 2524, samantha97 wrote:Vaxkiller- I don't believe vaxkiller asking for robert's role was performative, there's also something else I noticed but I forget what it was lol, I'd have to reread
Time to figure out what the other thing you noticed was @samantha, you mention it multiple times but never actually clarify.
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Post Post #3457 (isolation #160) » Mon May 17, 2021 2:53 am

Post by joqiza »

Ya let's wait to hear what sam had. However Vax can you update me on your current stance w.r.t. IV/Mognet/Prism slot?
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Post Post #3463 (isolation #161) » Mon May 17, 2021 4:38 am

Post by joqiza »

I believe it's been discussed already, but I have a really, really hard time seeing Equinox paired with the Merlot slot.

Spoiler: Merlot response to Entity
In post 1058, Merlot wrote:
In post 1050, The Entity wrote:
In post 845, Merlot wrote:okay holy fuck my hands are shaking and idk why i keep trying to drink caffeine but i feel like i’m dying
Holy fuck shut the fuck up why do you have to fucking post 900 fucking times in a row fucking stop holy fuck
1) why did you quote this post specifically? it’s sandwiched between two “content” posts sans a small like, got to go sort of one because whether or not you think my content is meaningful when you pick out something like that i think that you’re trying to frame /all/ of it as useless when i was catching up — and even then while posting a lot in a row it takes up like, what, one page of posts in a row, two? it doesn’t even bring me close to meeting the people who have the most posts

2) why not just ask me to post less instead of jumping to the conclusion that you’re going to kill me? do you think i’m that unwilling to change how i play?

3) this feels like a bit like team mafia at the start when you were getting annoyed over posting style and throwing it out there to like... be cantankerous and in character, maybe is the way to put it? i don’t know if you feel a need to always project that in games but that’s where my head went
In post 1059, Merlot wrote:that or it feels mildly like some sort of grudge which like, shrug can’t do much about
In post 1118, Merlot wrote:i’ll try to post less in the future, sorry
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Post Post #3465 (isolation #162) » Mon May 17, 2021 5:01 am

Post by joqiza »

doesn't read like something a mafia member writes to a partner. I read that as her actually trying to figure out the intent behind his post. Aka, why is he picking her out specifically, does he actually SR her, or is it a personal thing. As mafia to his town that's something she needs to decipher in order to play to her win condition.
In post 1095, The Entity wrote:
In post 1062, Prism wrote:As much as I dislike hyperposting meta (Ironic for people who know me) if your response to someone having fun is to tell them to shut the fuck up and launch into this condescending tirade about how much worse everything is for it, perhaps you are the one with the unhealthy mindset towards the game. There is not liking a style and finding it detrimental to your experience and there is being a gigantic prick about it.
i miss the days when shitposting wasn't someone's entire personality trait tbh
She writes and subs out after the above post.

I guess I can see the view that it could all be a case of scum dissonance/infighting, but I don't think it's the more likely explanation, and I think the Entity slot is town, anyway.
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Post Post #3471 (isolation #163) » Mon May 17, 2021 5:16 am

Post by joqiza »

For transparency, my current pool is Vax/titus/samantha/Toogeloo. Based on PoE, I think that pool + maybe Nexus (who will be resolved) contains both remaining Russians. Hopefully. If there's one outside it's a harder game--if both are outside it's a
much
harder game.

I'm not sure what the time pressure looks like to launch my own missile--I'm fine with going next, but ideally I'd like to wait for Nexus to be resolved. At minimum, if I fire at Titus, I'll be waiting enough time that I can recall if Nexus flips scum.

I think my most controversial read on there is DeasVail (?) Don't think he's a Russian and frankly I think he's just town, as well. I can get into that in a bit. I have some time today so going to write up some other things I've noticed about different slots.

Bell proposed a towncore of himself/gorilla/Church, and I think that seems healthy atm, at least as a not-russian core. So I'd also like to get some feedback from them before I launch.
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Post Post #3526 (isolation #164) » Mon May 17, 2021 7:38 am

Post by joqiza »

Warning:
I wrote a wallpost, tl;dr is I'm probs nuking in Titus/Vax, I saw Toog claimed Battleship while I was writing this so idk I'll re-think his inclusion in my PoE, I had Sam in PoE too but don't rly think I'm nuking her today.




I think the following people are Just Town:

Bell
- Felt like he was sort of thread-spewed to not be group-scum pretty early on. Think his VFP thunderdome is unnecessary if they're aligned, he had the option to follow LLD onto Robert.
gorilla
- IMO the most active pro-town player in the game. In addition to general content, he has no reason to jump in front of me to take the Robert shot when I'd said I was willing to do it myself.
Innocent Villager / Mognet / Prism
- I've gone into this, but in a nutshell I think scum is unlikely to draft covert ops and then try everything in their power to get nuked. IV is also pretty towny imo.
Equinox / Entity
- I've gone over this in and /




I think the following people are not Russian and probably just town:

Cephrir
- Has small little expressions like that just ring towny to me because they're the same sentiments that I had. and are other examples. More concretely, I think his annoyance at people claiming is town-motivated, his scorn towards the Russian team reads genuine, and this interaction with VFP () reads non-partnered to me.
Save the Dragons
- Nuked a Russian. Tbh, I do feel like Koto is the kind of player you hardbus, since he was apparently so afk that he didn't even bother to launch a retaliatory nuke. But I also found some points in convincing.
DeasVail
- I read him and I...
honestly don't think he's scummy at all?
(After reviewing a second time, I think his Nexus vote d2 and his initial TR on Koto/Merlot are points against him, but I still lean town anyway, for the following reasons.) Like I think he could be scum if he made no effort to control the gamestate to protect his partners, but also didn't push or distance them to gain towncredit, and instead basically opted to just chill in the back and serve up good vibes. Posts like do the same thing for me that a lot of Ceph's posts did, where they just capture sentiments I felt around the time I was feeling them. I really like the tone of . I also think he reads lightly non-partnered with mastina and Merlot. He mentions that he vibed with a lot of mastina's early readslists, but wasn't sure how to feel about it, and said in that the pressure on her felt appropriate. I think the way Merlot treated him felt a bit non-partnered. Lastly I feel like his draft is slightly +town, and I liked how he mentioned that he TR Koto after StD launched the nuke that way, but also didn't shoot it down and instead was considering saving T3. Why TR Koto but not shoot down the nuke if you're partnered with him? Either distance him or save him, don't try to associate yourself with him right before the flip.
The Church of Skitter (Alisae/Menalque)
- Still weirdly conflicted on this slot tbh. Their EoD2 during twilight was towny, like super super towny? I don't see them partnered with VFP after that. At the same time I look at posts like and and I think to myself that they just sound so wolfy tonally. Idk how to explain it, and maybe I just auto-scumread really long run-on sentences, which Alisae uses a lot. Anyway, they're the top-poster and probably just town, but yeah.
marry
- just iso me for reasons. wish she would actually play the game tho.




The following are slots that I'd (personally) like to see resolved:

Vaxkiller
- There are a couple posts I dislike from Vax. reads a bit forced tonally to me. His eventual case on Mognet in , , also struck me as a gish gallop. There's a lot of quotes from Mognet and Prism, but the overall logic doesn't seem quite there.

For instance,
In post 2246, Vaxkiller wrote:So that was early on. I would not say prism was sticking thie neck out, because a mastina wagon did not have any momentum at that point.
But I think this isn't true, because people were literally trying to vote mastina before votes were even enabled--there was pressure on her from the first post she made.

Anyway I felt his case was illogical at the time but didn't really think it was scum-motivated. More recently, I haven't liked his treatment of IV. It felt like he basically refused to re-eval with IV's new content, encouraged Nexus's nuke of the slot, but also
didn't seem interested in nuking the slot himself once Nexus recalled?
(I thought he might just have a troop at first, but I think he's said now he has a silo.) To be clear, I absolutely don't want him to nuke IV, but it's kind of surprising that despite hard-tunneling the slot he's not willing to go the last step himself--and yes, it makes me wonder if his read isn't genuine.

Aside from that he just doesn't have as much going as the other slots IMO. I kinda like for some reason, and I'm not sure the way mastina treated him reads like scum distancing. The second point in particular is something I'd want to go back and look at before firing a nuke.

Toogeloo
- Update: he claimed Battleship while I was writing this, which I think might be slightly +town given the bad guys targeted Pooky n1 and LLD/Et Al n2, possibly indicating they were trying to play around a save. I've found his tone kinda towny and I liked his vote/post on mastina back on the day she was limmed, but since then he's kind of faded to the background for me, and recently I don't like his scum-pool. The reasoning is fine as a starting point but kind of superficial, I obviously don't like my own inclusion, and I don't agree with the inclusion of DV/Ceph.

Titus
- Sigh, okay. I've gone into this one a bit too, and they may be my most likely target atm.

Pros: I liked their vote on mastina, they basically just said "I'll sheep LLD here" which seems valid and honest? I also think I find their tone in their response to me earlier slightly town-indicative, like they seemed to internalize and take personally my criticisms of their arguments, which might be more likely to come from town from whom the process was genuine than from scum for whom it would just be writing on the wall.

Cons: I still stand by some of my criticisms. When Titus and I were defending VFP yesterday, I took issue w/ some of Titus's logic, and it was those posts as well as the general atmosphere that made me start feeling like maybe I was on the wrong side of things. Tho I do think it would be quite bold of mafia to defend their partner as brazenly as Titus did, she basically stated that "I won't risk a VFP flip." Today, I took some issue w/ her StD read--after discussing w/ her, I actually find her argument convincing, but I worry now that it comes from a place of TMI, actually. I believe that at the time she made that read, StD had fired his nuke at Koto, but it hadn't landed yet. I'm wondering now if she went out of her way to defend with with the knowledge that he'd soon be responsible for limming a scum.

The nuke on Nexus is... I think it's OK, tbh, I think there are universes where Nexus/VFP was SvS, I don't mind seeing the slot resolved, but it wouldn't be my first choice in the pool, and I don't really understand the specific argument she's making of "no scum on his wagon." I don't necessarily disagree , but I don't really understand why that implies Nexus has to be scum, since scum could still be on a vanity wagon, not vote, or bus. I want to know the exact logical steps here, as I suspect I'll disagree w/ the logic somewhere.

samantha97
- I liked that one spicy post she made where she defended all the LHF's and I've liked her tone at points. Her vote history is also pretty decent I believe. Other than that, I can't remember any of her contributions except for tunneling DV all game, who I feel like is probs town now. Wouldn't be my first target in the pool idt, but can't see anything in specific that makes her not-Russian. Altho as I'm writing this I'm remembering that mastina put Sam really high in that initial reads list, which I wonder might be +town for her. Idk I might move her up--will revisit this, probably not nuking her myself.
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Post Post #3527 (isolation #165) » Mon May 17, 2021 7:53 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3524, Cephrir wrote:@std, joqiza, gorilla, bell please lmk if you object to this line, i don't really care what anyone else thinks
If by "this line" you mean nuking samantha, I don't really object, altho my preference atm in my own pool is towards Titus/Vax.

Mechanically speaking, though, might be optimal to wait at least until the nuke heading to Nexus is within <24 hours? I believe that gives you a chance to recall in case the Nexus flip changes a read. Idk if that's the case for sam but probably should be for Titus.
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Post Post #3545 (isolation #166) » Mon May 17, 2021 8:34 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3534, Titus wrote: Sure. When I look at my VCA, I'm asking myself "What are scum doing?" and "What do they want here?"

What they want, on the surface, is a living VFP as the having more members is better. This is doubly true after losing mastina day 1.

This suggests there should be scum on the Nexus wagon.

Then I get to the other question. "What are scum doing?"

I look at the wagons and see that I don't feel anyone who is scum is voting Nexus. That means my reads, and the largely consensus reads, are off or scum didn't want to vote Nexus.

If scum didn't want to vote a town Nexus over VFP prior to the allegations that Bell copped VFP, I would be surprised.

Nuking Nexus proves either S v S wagons or that the reads in the game need a major shakeup and I'm ok with that being my contribution.
Okay, I want to try to follow you, so let's break this down.

Here's the Nexus wagon at what I believe is its largest point.
In post 2462, SirCakez wrote:
Votecount 2.6

Nexus (6) - Titus, joqiza, T3, DeasVail, Cephrir, Save The Dragons
VFP (5) - Bell, gorilla, Nexus, samantha97, Toogeloo
Robert M Hunter (4) - Lady Lambdadelta, marry, Robert M Hunter, The Entity
innocentvillager (1) - Vaxkiller
marry (1) - VFP
Titus (1) - innocentvillager
Koto (1) - The Church of Skitter

Not Voting [3] - Koto, DeathNote, Et Al

(expired on 2021-05-22 17:52:00) remain until day end

With 22 players alive, it takes 12 to reach a majority.
So, of the people on the Nexus wagon outside of us, I agree w/ the reads on them. So, I guess my main question is: do you read Vaxkiller as town? Since he was off the VFP wagon too, but just not as actively present on Nexus.

I think if Vax is town, then my brain actually goes to scum bussing before I consider VFP/Nexus SvS. Do you think it's impossible for scum to bus? I think it's unlikely, but there's a chance. Was VFP ever going to endgame? Probably not--if town!Nexus flips, VFP probably gets nuked and then limmed today. Although, as I type this, scum may have felt it worth the risk. VFP having to be limmed gives them an extra vote, and they might win the D1 nuke battle and have enough votes to control the thread. Idk. I'll have to think about it. I think one other thing to consider is that they felt they didn't have enough thread control w/ Koto basically AWOL yesterday to push through a town lim.

Part of the issue rn, I think, is that for this "wagonomics" issue I can just pencil in a you/Vaxkiller scumteam and be on my way. Altho writing this out has made me nervous about my Ceph/DV and even StD townreads. Like at first I was thinking, "VFP wasn't a critical game piece," but now I'm wondering if scum might've elected to go all in to save him, in hopes of having enough votes to win after all the nukes get fired.
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Post Post #3554 (isolation #167) » Mon May 17, 2021 9:03 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3546, Titus wrote:The problem with the scum bussing theory is two fold

1) Why would scum bus after just losing mastina?
2) Who's the busser? It's not Bell or gorilla. If we buy Toog's claim it's not Toog. So that leaves Nexus or Samantha. Nexus bussing in an S v S scenario makes some sense. Sam bussing might be true, but we get into the question of why?

Vaxkiller is a spot I waffle on by play, but I think he's just too out there to be scum.
I don't think it's the most likely explanation, I just think it's... something I find myself naturally considering ahead of considering the SvS universe.

I think the scum bussing world goes something like this: they see some pressure on VFP early, they hop on to distance, hoping that VFP's early vote on mastina and the multitude of other options will lead to the dissolution of the wagon and a town mislim--there's some more pressure on VFP and dueling wagons between VFP and town!Nexus, but scum stay on VFP because they're nervous that they can actually push through Nexus with Bell hard tunneling VFP and one of their members (Koto) basically a non-presence.

Again, not the most likely explanation, but... ig it was a bit surprising to me that you were confident enough that this gamestate doesn't exist, to nuke Nexus.

To answer your second question, if we start talking about bussers, then yah, Sam's one of the first slots I'd look at. But let's wait to see what Nexus flips, first.
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Post Post #3562 (isolation #168) » Mon May 17, 2021 9:21 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3557, samantha97 wrote:I know you don't know me, but thinking I'd bus, especially in a situation where we just lost a member, is like thinking bell is mafia here
I'll take that into account.

What's your read on Titus/Vax rn? I remember you TR Vax for not being aware of Rob's soft, but I'm starting to feel a little hopeful that there's a 2/2 there.
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Post Post #3566 (isolation #169) » Mon May 17, 2021 9:36 am

Post by joqiza »

i think just drafting the intercept role is kinda towny because if he's scum then scum drafted eavesdropper, fallout shelter, and interceptor, which seems kinda stupid to me idk. like just take the silos.

also in general his posts make me feel happy inside but i suppose that's not a great reason to tr someone
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Post Post #3569 (isolation #170) » Mon May 17, 2021 9:37 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3256, DeasVail wrote:Argh, I realised that I missed the boat for the intercept and it takes 24h for my intercept to happen. I was going off the detonation happening 24h from cakez’s post but I just double-checked and the countdown indicates that it started from DN’s post.

If I’m wrong someone let me know but if not I’m really sorry T3
like look

he's so sad about t3 getting nuked :(

it feels like he really wanted to save him asdfkjlasndf idk
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Post Post #3570 (isolation #171) » Mon May 17, 2021 9:37 am

Post by joqiza »

yes the cute animal avi may also not be helping. kinda dirty for him to use that against me.
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Post Post #3628 (isolation #172) » Mon May 17, 2021 3:34 pm

Post by joqiza »

You phrased that a bit oddly. But yes, I like their recent string of posts, the stream of consciousness posting feels genuine. I feel heard as well, w.r.t. marry, which is always nice.
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Post Post #3633 (isolation #173) » Mon May 17, 2021 3:45 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3588, The Church of Skitter wrote:I strongly believe that Titus as town and I'm probably one of the best people on the playerlist to read her.

I'm able to read her because I understand what her villager game looks like because I understand what she does and why she does it.

Titus' posting reads to me as extremely natural and I think her posting is very likely to come from her villager game.

Please trust me
I think this'll be something I chew on tn, it seems like a couple of people who know Titus better than I do slot her as town. So that's worth considering.
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Post Post #3635 (isolation #174) » Mon May 17, 2021 3:53 pm

Post by joqiza »

I kind of bought Sam's indignation about the bussing thing earlier
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Post Post #3660 (isolation #175) » Tue May 18, 2021 3:14 am

Post by joqiza »

All--

I'm submitting a launch on Vaxkiller. I'm at work so I can't go into like, a whole spiel about why I'm nuking Vaxkiller over Titus, but I'll be around this evening to talk about it. I have the option to recall tho I don't think I'll end up doing it.

The other two names in the sub list (that I added) will be Titus and Toog. But the payload is headed for Vax.
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Post Post #3693 (isolation #176) » Tue May 18, 2021 5:05 am

Post by joqiza »

Ugh okay. @Vax I ended up picking you over Titus because I went back and read all of today and you were being really cagey. Obv the thought that you might be espionage passed through my head but I'm pretty sure you softed a silo somewhere so that + the way you were playing seemed scummy to me. Also your read on T3 literally felt like TMI but I guess that makes sense now.

Why didn't you out to save T3? I feel like saving a conftown with failsafe would have been worth it, especially at this point, but w/e.

I have 24hr to recall so I'll wait until I get home from work in case Bell comes on and CCs espionage or something. If it gets cc'ed I'll let it go through otherwise I'll recall it.
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Post Post #3758 (isolation #177) » Tue May 18, 2021 11:23 am

Post by joqiza »

Recall is submitted.
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Post Post #3761 (isolation #178) » Tue May 18, 2021 11:49 am

Post by joqiza »

In post 3759, gorilla wrote:joqiza, I can't help but feel like something is going wrong and there's someone we're overlooking. The PoE doesn't feel right. Do you have that feeling?
Yeah, I was thinking about the game at work today. I know I probably have very little credibility rn, but Vax being PR feels like a missing puzzle piece.

I still think marry and Equinox slot are town, and I still think DeasVail is probably town. I still think the Mognet slot is town too, but I kind of wish Nexus had let the nuke go through now just because I feel like the whole game hinges on that slot being town for me, and I need to know if I'm getting fooled. I think the claims from Toog/Vax are also +town and may even be self-resolving.

Sam and Titus I don't know, but I feel like they could be town. Church's strong TR on Titus... made me re-think things, not because there was any argument levelled with it, but because I feel like that's less likely to happen in the first place in a town!Church/scum!Titus universe, if that makes sense? It could be TvT, or it could be scum!Church with TMI, but... I still think Titus maybe needs to get resolved at some point, but I find myself looking into town!Titus universes anyway following that post.

The slots I keep coming back to rn are... StD/Church. As weird as that sounds, it's honestly where my head keeps taking me.
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Post Post #3763 (isolation #179) » Tue May 18, 2021 12:01 pm

Post by joqiza »

If you take down two more Russians I'll clear you of being Russian, how does that sound?
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Post Post #3765 (isolation #180) » Tue May 18, 2021 12:03 pm

Post by joqiza »

@Sam can you explain the thought process behind taking Air Base? Like I get the wifom potential w/ people thinking Bell has Air Base or whatever but it doesn't really... seem as good as just having a consensus villager in an Air Base. And you were TRing him I thought?
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Post Post #3789 (isolation #181) » Tue May 18, 2021 1:12 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3779, The Church of Skitter wrote:Man I'm actually really triggered that my titus read is being called TMI when I've had years of experience with her, I understand her villager game, and historically speaking I've been pretty accurate when it comes to reading her.
That triggers me so fucking much you don't even understnad
Sorry if you do feel this way... FWIW I'm not saying your read on Titus is necessarily TMI. What I'm saying is I don't think you're town to her scum--aka I think it's relatively unlikely that you're town getting fooled. I haven't disqualified the TvT universe by any means. The reason I gravitate back to your slot is due to other reasons (I'll elaborate in a sec) and PoE.
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Post Post #3803 (isolation #182) » Tue May 18, 2021 1:25 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3768, gorilla wrote:You mentioned in your reads you have reservations on church. could you explain those?
I'll preface this by saying I don't really think she's the best nuke, lim, or even investigate, I just find myself tinfoiling her before other slots. The other big possibility in my mind is that I'm simply wrong on Mognet.

I think the crux of the issue is I don't vibe with a lot of the reasoning exhibited in her longer posts/readlists, and the tone of some of her statements feels ingenuine to me. Take this one for instance:
In post 3332, The Church of Skitter wrote:Cephrir - Has throughout the game just generally been townie
innocentvillager - townie claim
Save the Dragons - Nuked Koto probably not groupscum
Vaxkiller - pushes people in villagery ways
Toogeloo - Has done toogeloo things. Ya know what, I should probably just stop writing him off for no reason and probably read his iso?
Bell - yep villager
gorilla - yep villager
Equinox - I think I re-read this after toogeloo
DeasVail - Seems like a villager? Maybe it's just moreso he just doesn't seem scummy
Nexus - Retracting the nuke was good
Titus - The way they sheeped LLD D1 was villagery for me and I think the way they just to get wagon data is good. They also want The Entity/Equniox. If you had to force me to say who was townier between the two I would say Titus and a lot of that is because of experience w/ Titus but I don't know anything about Equinox aside from "the big post seem fine" and that's not enough anymore I need something better so...
samantha97 - I actually have no idea what Samantha wants to do
joqiza - I mean he sounds smart
marry - Okay I think its worthwhile asking so anyone can pitch in, why is marry town aside from interactions with VFP and VFP pushing marry because that's the only reason for that I can think of off the top of my head to townread her and that just mean's she's not groupscum and even if it's just this 1 fight I don't actually remember it because I haven't actually read it but I'm not sure it's enough to look at and say "oh ya, this it's pretty much impossible for this to be theater"
Content-wise, I'm not even sure where to start? In general, though, there isn't actually much analysis, there's just a lot of words. This also might just be a playstyle thing but the sentence construction also comes off as wolfy to me.

Here's another earlier reads list (end of day 2):
In post 2533, The Church of Skitter wrote:Cephrir - town
Lady Lambdadelta - My only observation is she doesn't seem like she's playing a show geared towards me but reading this player is not my job in the hydra.
innocentvillager Mognet Prism - Prism seemed townie, Mognet annoyed me and tbh I can't view this slot objectively. Haven't read a single IV post.
Save the Dragons - he seemed like he was piggybacking off of what I was saying about Mognet. I don't think he added anything new to that.
Vaxkiller - I have no idea how to read this player. I read it as scum but apparently gorilla thinks they're not aligned with mastina and I want to sheep that.
Et Al (Skitter30/Something_Smart) - Actually I have no idea what skitter is thinking right now. Maybe that just says so much about how I'm just so out of tune with whats going on?
Toogeloo - seems town?
Bell - probably town but I haven't been reading closely
gorilla - town I don't need to explain this the guy has been trying to solve.
Robert M Hunter -
Koto Merlot Untrod Tripod - Merlot seemed town, my vote was probably just because I was annoyed here but I also don't think they've did much of anything at all actually.
The Entity (Equinox/xRECKONERx) - I think I'll just naturally townread anything Equinox posts because it looks like they're trying to solve so I'll also just naturally overlook whatever Reck is doing. Ya I think this is town I have no idea what fucking Kool-Aid Mena is on w/ this one. Actually I really need Mena back tbh the guy went MIA on me
DeasVail -
@DeasVail
why do you townread us? It's weird because I feel like you confidently TR us while several people are suspecting us and I'm not sure what to think of this so if you could bring light to this that would be cool.
Nexus - Probably a villager?
VFP deep-city-lights - Don't remember apparently he exists? Ya this is probably POE scum
T3 - Probably poe scum? I don't know
Titus - Guys Titus is town. She always she's LLD the way she does as a villager guys she's town. Guys.
DeathNote* - Who?
samantha97 - Ya if Mognet is town this is probably scum huh. It mostly just makes sense because while it is reasonable for sam to say "guys LLD bussed" the way I feel like it was played could come from scum who tried to do something and just, gave up? I mean there's 1 scum in {Sam, Mognet} that's just facts.
joqiza -
marry - I like marry marry is fun tbh I didn't get why people were voting marry i feel like most of it is probably coming from scum who saw LLD's interactions with marry and thought "Easy pickins boys" based on this logic LLD is probably town too if this is correct? But ya that's my theory atm. Idunno who is actually pushing marry, I think it was VFP. Ya actually fuck VFP he's probably just scum?
I think I actually voted Church after the above post. A lot of the reads show, at best, inattention to the game? The read on the Entity slot made no sense because only Reckoner was posting at the time. The {Sam/Mognet} 1 out of 2 feels super random. The "guys, guys" on the Titus read just feels... do you see what I'm saying? It just feels the slightest bit forced to me.

What confuses me is that her interactions with VFP read super clearing and there ARE moments where her in the moment stream of consciousness posting comes off townier to me. I just go back and forth between those moments and her other posts and I feel like I run into cognitive dissonance. So I'm just sort of confused atm.
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Post Post #3809 (isolation #183) » Tue May 18, 2021 1:43 pm

Post by joqiza »

@Church

I'm not pretending like it's a case against you. But I can't just change the things that ping me when I read a sentence. My read on you comes down to these random ~bad vibes~ that I get and I'm trying to explain why I get these bad vibes in the first place, while acknowledging that reading into them is limited in terms of equity.

Your clarification about the Sam/Mognet read is helpful.

In a universe where you and Titus are both town, I'm just deeply confused as to who the remaining Russians actually are. I guess we can wait to see what Sam flips.
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Post Post #3811 (isolation #184) » Tue May 18, 2021 1:47 pm

Post by joqiza »

I understand, and you have. I feel really bad, because regardless of your alignment you've played really hard / well and I know my suspicion of you is like, fairly baseless and just based off weird gut juju. I'm just trying to express myself honestly, and I think keeping it internal would be worse for the eventual gamestate.
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Post Post #3813 (isolation #185) » Tue May 18, 2021 1:51 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3808, JohnnyFarrar wrote:I fully bit off more than I could chew with this setup.

Quick questions:

1. Do we have a town bloc? If not, why not?

2. Do we do regular limmimg or is it just the nuke stuff?

3. Are there any consensus POEs?
1. Someone can say if they disagree, but I think Bell/Gorilla are consensus villager (or at least not Russian) through social reads, and Vax/Toogeloo/Cephrir are probably villagers via mechs at this point.

2. Yeah both. Some people can launch nukes during the day and we also get a regular elimination through voting. We're trying to use all our nukes before voting since that reduces the amount of nightkills the scum factions get. Toogeloo had a list of current claims/softs in .

3. Sam is in the process of getting nuked, not sure what the PoE looks like rn outside of that.
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Post Post #3819 (isolation #186) » Tue May 18, 2021 1:58 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3812, The Church of Skitter wrote:have your reads changed since your last list that had like all of the depth'n'stuff
Yeah, literally of my original nuke pool of Vax/Toog/Sam/Titus, it's possible Vax, Toog, and Titus are all town. JSYK your read on Titus was one of the reasons I decided not to nuke them. I also think Titus asking to be checked by Vax is pretty towny. Sam I'm not sure but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if she flipped town, which is why I'm struggling with your slot on the first place. At that point I'm running back up against slots like marry, Equinox, and Mognet, and if any of those slots flips scum it's at the point where I can say I officially got snowed--that hasn't happened in a while. DV ig is just... not that present... but I really do find him towny, and I don't get why Russians would take intercept.
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Post Post #3822 (isolation #187) » Tue May 18, 2021 2:01 pm

Post by joqiza »

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Post Post #3841 (isolation #188) » Tue May 18, 2021 2:27 pm

Post by joqiza »

I don't think I've done anything particularly clearing, except maybe on a tonal level. I don't really know as I've never been good at that kind of self-assessment.

@Johnny I would also recommend against a marry nuke.
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Post Post #3842 (isolation #189) » Tue May 18, 2021 2:36 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3831, samantha97 wrote: he was off mastina entirely and only joined vfp late
For the record, I did say I'd hammer mastina.
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Post Post #3847 (isolation #190) » Tue May 18, 2021 2:42 pm

Post by joqiza »

this is probably one of the harder games i've played in awhile, tbh. if i need to get resolved so be it, i don't think i've played particularly well so far and i feel really unconfident about a lot of my reads. what really bothers me is that if mognet ends up being scum then i really cocked the game up for town.

@Johnny don't shoot toog he's our doc claim
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Post Post #3857 (isolation #191) » Tue May 18, 2021 2:54 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3848, gorilla wrote: He passively accepts the mastina wagon, but is sort of awkwardly hesitant to vote for her and tries to stall the hammer. That was the post that started off the whole mognet debacle, but in hindsight, it feels like he mght have been reluctantly holding off on a bus?
I want to respond to this, as I feel it's inaccurate. I didn't stall the hammer, I just didn't rush it. The atmosphere of how that D1 went made me uncomfortable--although I thought mastina had decent odds to flip scum, you can never be sure about a D1 lim, and in the case that she flipped town I felt like participating in a speedlim would essentially be taking part in concentrated bullying. So I took 24 hours out of professionalism, but I don't think the outcome was ever in doubt.

The rest of your post I don't really have anything to say about, other than you're probably picking out the parts that make me bad and disregarding the things I have going for me. Over the course of a 4000 post game there's going to be some of both. I can't control how the scum team talks about me, and I don't think my calls have been particularly good this game. Although I did get RMH right.
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Post Post #3859 (isolation #192) » Tue May 18, 2021 2:57 pm

Post by joqiza »

W.r.t. Merlot, I actually was slightly curious about some of her posts when she subbed in, but didn't really have enough of a lead to go anywhere with. Then Koto came in and was basically AFK the whole time. I didn't have much to say about them as I figured they'd be cleared out in the initial salvo.
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Post Post #3860 (isolation #193) » Tue May 18, 2021 3:03 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3848, gorilla wrote:in hindsight I don't like his church read as I think it may hav been trying to take advantage of my suspicion there, I don't like him trying to chip away at townreads on save the dragons for nuking koto.
I don't feel this is a fair comment either, as the way I remember it I mentioned my scumread on Church and then you agreed with me, not the other way around.
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Post Post #3879 (isolation #194) » Tue May 18, 2021 3:35 pm

Post by joqiza »

DeasVail has the option to intercept/block any nuke 1x per day but he probably won't if you shoot in your current pool, except I could see him intercepting one on Bell.
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Post Post #3901 (isolation #195) » Tue May 18, 2021 3:47 pm

Post by joqiza »

If you're determined to nuke marry, at least give sufficient time for a replacement. I don't think she's coming back tbh and it's another probably town-controlled silo and another resolve opportunity.

That said I strongly advise against a marry lim and I'd almost (not quite, but almost) be willing to eat a nuke over that slot.
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Post Post #3909 (isolation #196) » Tue May 18, 2021 3:54 pm

Post by joqiza »

That's fair, I don't really like my reads atm either.
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Post Post #3928 (isolation #197) » Tue May 18, 2021 4:06 pm

Post by joqiza »

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Post Post #3936 (isolation #198) » Tue May 18, 2021 4:17 pm

Post by joqiza »

In post 3932, The Church of Skitter wrote:joqiza I'll miss playing with you you were fun to play w/
Thank you <3 and likewise.
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Post Post #3939 (isolation #199) » Tue May 18, 2021 4:19 pm

Post by joqiza »

I feel a bit like I'm still in purgatory cuz idk if DeasVail might intercept this or something but, and not to be anti-town, I truly don't mind getting resolved in this situation. I have no idea who scum are and idt I'm towncore material by anything I've done so yeah. I do think Equinox/Johnny slot flips town with pretty high likelihood so that's a good intercept option. I'll be around.
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