Mini Normal 2205: RotITGBSMoD [game over!]

[InsidiousLemons]

UNVOTE:

cool. were there any posts in particular struck you as town AI for koba or are you just being indecisive again

[InsidiousLemons]

Ok, I finished my catch up.

It wasn't exactly page-by-page, but individual-iso (including predecessors) and this is the slot most likely to be scum imo:

VOTE: T3

I don't intend to go into details, but Haschel's behavior before the substitution was very apathetic in the sense of wim and uncharacteristic with the competence that I imagine town!Haschel has. With the entry of T3 things have not changed much, considering the shallow participation/reasoning, but I still see Haschel as scummy independent of him.

can we get a quick rundown of your general feelings on the validity of asteria and koba's claims? i've said a couple times now (and i believe other

have as well) that i view {asteria, koba} as almost certainly containing at least one scum, due to the number of guns in the game not matching the fact that there are 3 PR claims plus (likely) 2 gunned maf. where do you stand on the matter?

if T3 has to be the compromise i do think it's quite likely he's scum, but as has been said, a red flip gives us no info to go off of on anyone else.

[InsidiousLemons]

also does your reasoning for wanting anya dead go beyond "she's on the asteria wagon"

anya feels very surface level and barely playing the game

can you elaborate on your thoughts on anya?

@pooky still waiting on a response to this

she feels surface level and not really trying

yeah okay you said this not too long ago my bad

[InsidiousLemons]

@Lemons

If there is scum between them, it's probably Dk. GC losing motivation and using logic excessively to criticize/reject accusations is something that I have seen from scum!GC in a past game, although it also happened with town!GC. But, again, comparatively speaking, Dk + GC are less towny than Asteria.

Regarding Dk(in isolation), nothing they have done so far is outside their town/scum range.

Koba doesn't really have a scumrange/townrange

Koba will kill your pet cat to win a game

this is all good meta info. i would agree that the combo of crayons + koba is less town than asteria, though it makes me feel a bit better about the slot to hear from a (presumably) neutral perspective that this isn't out of the ordinary for koba.

[InsidiousLemons]

But I still prefer T3. A scumread by play is more valid to me than a mech-spec elim.

pedit: That's true.

i am willing to start running t3 up at this point. we need to get them in this thread somehow

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: T3

[InsidiousLemons]

is it scummy?

what post/user is this directed at

[InsidiousLemons]

welcome georgebailey most gracious backup mod

t3 is scuuuuuuuum

[InsidiousLemons]

okay first thing's first. i am hardclaiming

town N2 rolecop

. crumbed it in the first word(s) of each line of this post:

n two

other quick points

-

role

claiming this messily after like 5 pages of softclaiming and floundering and confusion makes it pretty much unthinkable to me that andante is being anything but genuine here. my shaky but incredibly persistent gut townread had some merit to it all along dadgummit
-

cop

, mafia, vig, gunsmith, etc. all have guns. given the wide range of roles that can possess guns, i don't think focusing too hard on the total number before anyone at all has flipped is going to grant us any useful setup information. i still don't truly understand why you're so convinced a traitor must be in here. again, trackers do NOT have guns, so it doesn't tell us anything about the veracity of robert's claim. why didn't you bother to verify that before going down this road?

i had hoped to get this claim in at the very start of the day to avoid the appearance of picking a side with my night result, but the late daystart meant that i fell asleep before that could happen.


i checked

PookyTheMagicalBear

in hopes of identifying him as either traitor or doc. it felt more productive than attempting to sus out a town fakeclaim.

he is confirmed vanilla townie

.

[InsidiousLemons]

My vote is completely unrelated to mechanics.

I think Town!Koba more aggressively pushes me if they disagree with me, and I think they hold their ground a lot stronger. Hammering T3 after they had already identified them as Town low hanging fruit just doesn’t sit right me. I refuse to believe this is Town Koba.

i'm not familiar with koba's meta but the attempt to defend themself has been weak so far. combine this with the fact that i can finally reveal that i essentially

KNOW for a fact

that either Asteria or Koba or both are lying about having a gun (2 gunned mafia + me + Andante = 4; 1 gunned mafia + Andante + Asteria + me = 4) and voila. the second scenario is already a bit of a stretch to me because it relies on the existence of a traitor. asteria is very possibly lying as well

VOTE: DkKoba

[InsidiousLemons]

I doubt asteria is killed tonight.
Town Dk means that scum have to choose who to block.

And if the other is killed from the 2, then we have answers.
Dk is a bad lim today.

@Pooky

- who's scum outside of PRs?
Who gets the bullet right now?

okay wait i don't think i understand what you're saying here. you just said you doubt asteria is killed then advocated not limming DK on the basis that "if the other is killed then we have answers", no?

???

[InsidiousLemons]

they were probably on me and were going to confirm me VOTE: asteria
now explain why THIS lived.

surely you don't think asteria would actually have been a better kill last night than andante from a scum perspective, right? this reeks of deflection and whataboutism

[InsidiousLemons]

My vote is completely unrelated to mechanics.

I think Town!Koba more aggressively pushes me if they disagree with me, and I think they hold their ground a lot stronger. Hammering T3 after they had already identified them as Town low hanging fruit just doesn’t sit right me. I refuse to believe this is Town Koba.

i'm not familiar with koba's meta but the attempt to defend themself has been weak so far. combine this with the fact that i can finally reveal that i essentially

KNOW for a fact

that either Asteria or Koba or both are lying about having a gun (2 gunned mafia + me + Andante = 4; 1 gunned mafia + Andante + Asteria + me = 4) and voila. the second scenario is already a bit of a stretch to me because it relies on the existence of a traitor. asteria is very possibly lying as well

VOTE: DkKoba

this is E-2 by the way so be careful goobers

[InsidiousLemons]

i can finally reveal that i essentially

KNOW for a fact

that either Asteria or Koba or both are lying about having a gun

i veeery vaguely hinted at this in 3137 as well but apart from that my goal was to keep intentional PR-tells at a minimum because i really wanted to live long enough to use my one-shot. sorry i didn't hit something juicier but we now have one absolutely confirmed VT, and if we determine that asteria is lying we get VFP for free. i still think it's decently likely that they are scum covering for each other. it was a tough choice between pooky and VFP for my night action

[InsidiousLemons]

pooky and asteria**

[InsidiousLemons]

i checked PookyTheMagicalBear in hopes of identifying him as either traitor or doc. it felt more productive than attempting to sus out a town fakeclaim.

he is confirmed vanilla townie.

Doesn't a rolecop have a gun?

see 3318

[InsidiousLemons]

This just makes me think Anya is a roleblocker and Lemons is actually scum here. A day 2 Rolecop would suggest that there aren't 2 Mafia docs, which would also mean that Dk and asteria are both scum. They are never going to both be scum.
The check on Pooky is odd here. But this makes Pooky town regardless for me.

I think Anya is a good lim still.

@Clidd

thoughts here?

this 2 mafia docs thing needs to die. the first page of this thread confirms that there is

"a mafia doctor"

. not at least one mafia doctor, not some number of mafia doctors, "a". one. anything else would be tantamount to the mod lying about the setup.

mafia doctor and a traitor? maybe, especially in a game with an informed role who knows the number of guns.

the check on pooky was motivated by the fact we know he's non-gunned. i had a strong gut suspicion that he could be the doctor and wanted to see if i was right

[InsidiousLemons]

Scum only need 2 mis lims aswell.
Lemons is putting us into a position on a plausible mis lim even in their mind.

I'm giving you a scum lim.

look, was my night action choice the most pro-town possible move? with the benefit of hindsight, i can admit that it was not. i got greedy and allowed my overconfidence in my read of pooky and the potential benefits of being right to convince me that checking him was the best option.

VFP's simultaneous persistence in the notion that the claims will self resolve AND that even town!asteria wouldn't die tonight is pretty fuckin fishy to me. 3324 still does not present a scenario wherein we will know 100% who's lying and who's not by tomorrow, unless i'm misreading it.

[InsidiousLemons]

We know for fact that one of the claims is lying now. We have 4 guns claimed and 4 guns total. I don't think Lemons and Koba are both lying so I'm thinking we are dealing with a traitor. If one of them is lying I would bet Koba. Lemons is in a good position right now as scum and this would be a really risky move. Especially since if we do elim me or koba and find out they are town, Lemons would be in a very bad position.

i'm willing to call this a scumslip. in trying to curry favour by defending players she knows to be town, scum!asteria has revealed that she is mentally counting herself as armed mafioso rather than as her real claim. town!asteria does not believe that koba and i are both telling the truth, because to believe so necessitates the belief that none of the mafia are armed. and we know she didn't just miss the andante flip because she directly quotes anya's "rip andante" message earlier in the same post.

sound reasonable to anyone else?

[InsidiousLemons]

not significantly, but i wouldn't want to lim you today, and i don't think you're a high enough priority NK if you're town that scum would bother killing you before asteria flips. it does lend her some slight credibility in that it would be difficult for scum to guess that you're VT, but again, i don't think you'll flip before her

[InsidiousLemons]

okay wait i don't think i understand what you're saying here. you just said you doubt asteria is killed then advocated not limming DK on the basis that "if the other is killed then we have answers", no?

???

It's not hard to understand.
Scum either kill Dk tonight or both get "role blocked"

So then we know that 1is lying and that scum actually have a roleblocker.
Asteria won't be the kill tonight though 9/10 times.

It sorts itself out for tomorrow.

in the scenario where neither dies and both get "role blocked", how do we know with 100% certainly which one is telling the truth?

[InsidiousLemons]

if the answer is "we don't", then the assertion that this must sort itself out by tomorrow is false.

[InsidiousLemons]

i'm willing to call this a scumslip. in trying to curry favour by defending players she knows to be town, scum!asteria has revealed that she is mentally counting herself as armed mafioso rather than as her real claim. town!asteria does not believe that koba and i are both telling the truth, because to believe so necessitates the belief that none of the mafia are armed. and we know she didn't just miss the andante flip because she directly quotes anya's "rip andante" message earlier in the same post.

I’m not following this logic at all. Walk me through it like I was a child.

we have 4 gunned PR claims:
- Andante as gunsmith (confirmed)
- Asteria as neapolitan (unconfirmed)
- DK as weak vig (unconfirmed)
- me as role cop (unconfirmed)

knowing that we have 4 guns in play, the possibilities are:

- Andante + 2 gunned mafia + {Asteria, Dk, or me}
- Andante + 1 gunned mafioso + {Asteria and Dk, Asteria and me, or Dk and me)

Asteria is approaching this from the perspective that 2 people are telling the truth, which puts us in the second scenario. she asserts that these 2 people are myself and Dk, which would make

asteria herself the liar.

what sense does it make for a real Neapolitan to make this mistake? did she forget what was in her role PM? did she forget that andante died? not likely. what's more plausible to me is that, because

in her own mind

she is already accounted for as the gunned mafioso, she forgot to account for herself again in the PR pool.

it is impossible for nea!asteria to believe that Dk and I are both telling the truth, because that theory refutes her own claim.

the only way for this to have happened is by a massive blunder of logic, and the explanation for that blunfer that makes the most sense to me is that asteria forgot to account for herself in the PR claims.

[InsidiousLemons]

Anya is going to be the best lim here as scum Lemon's makes a claim like that to ensure Anya is safe. Meaning Anya is something important to scum.
I'm thinking Lemons is actually the traitor here.

if i'm the traitor then how do i know who is and isn't important to scum? sure, maybe i'm just a goon, but the fact that you didn't think of this demonstrates that you didn't consider this theory very thoroughly

[InsidiousLemons]

she asserts that these 2 people are myself and Dk, which would make asteria herself the liar.

Like yeah I think this assumption is incorrect. You should have asked to clarify before I think. I don’t take Asteria’s statement to mean that she thinks you and Koba are both telling the truth. The statement absolutely leaves the option open that 1 of you is lying, just not the both of you.

you're totally right. disregard everything I've said about this being a scumslip, i simply misread "i don't think both koba and lemons are lying" as "i don't think koba and lemons are lying"

[InsidiousLemons]

Anya is going to be the best lim here as scum Lemon's makes a claim like that to ensure Anya is safe. Meaning Anya is something important to scum.
I'm thinking Lemons is actually the traitor here.

if i'm the traitor then how do i know who is and isn't important to scum? sure, maybe i'm just a goon, but the fact that you didn't think of this demonstrates that you didn't consider this theory very thoroughly

Can you word this differently I don't understand it?
I read it as how would you know who scum is?
Which doesn't seem like something that you would be asking.

traitor doesn't know who the scum is, right? so how could traitor!lemons be fakeclaiming in order to protect a scum PR?

[InsidiousLemons]

Koba not announcing who they supposedly targeted N2 is also highly suspicious.

this is pretty strong evidence tbh

[InsidiousLemons]

there's very little doubt in my mind that Koba is scum at this point. apologies for the logical fuckery with asteria, i was speedposting at work and didn't give myself time to properly read or think. that's on me.

as i've said, the pooky check was not a great play. it was borne of a strong suspicion that i would be able to identify the mafia doctor. i was wrong and it was a gamble i shouldn't have taken. i don't think this makes me scum

i could believe the play i'm seeing from VFP, although logically inconsistent at times, is coming from a town mindset. not sure i love his insistence on anya being the elim today though. tough to say but i think at this juncture VFP being the real deal is more likely than asteria and VFP being partners, which is the only way VFP could be scum. happy with my vote where it is.

[InsidiousLemons]

Normal Guidelines
A Traitor is considered Normal on mafiascum.net, as long as it:

is Mafia-aligned

knows the identities of all of the Mafia team

identity is not known by the Mafia team, although they should know a Traitor exists
cannot be recruited to join the rest of the Mafia team, and (unless Bulletproof) is killed if shot
is endgamed if all other Mafia are dead
gives a "guilty" result to Cops, an "innocent" result to Gunsmiths, and a "Traitor" result to Role Cops
If you want a Traitor that cannot be killed by its team, make it a Bulletproof Traitor. (A Traitor that investigates as though they were town is not Normal, because the Godfather role is not Normal.) Roles like this should return full names (e.g. Bulletproof Traitor) to a Role Cop investigating them.

As a Traitor is Mafia-aligned, it counts towards the Mafia's win condition. For example, in the situation of 1 Goon, 1 Traitor and 2 Townies, the game ends in a Mafia win.

So if that was your only argument, I'm not buying it. Try again.

i haven't been on the site in 5 years before this game. forgive me for not being familiar with the specifics. as i've said, i wanted to try and appear as vanilla as possible in order to preserve my ability to use my night action. to me that felt much more productive than forcing a confrontation directly.

if you want me to explain any of my actions/posts in particular i'm more than happy to

p-edit claiming here just so i don't have to deal with being scumread by a likely elim is kinda stupid

[InsidiousLemons]

i also crumbed literally 700 posts before you even entered the game so shut the entire fuck up

p-edit yeah, sure. but don't you think it's more likely that my claim is genuine than that both Dk's and Asteria's are?

[InsidiousLemons]

you dont have a rolecop ability

wha

[InsidiousLemons]

i put pressure on andante a few times to try and get them to crack. never wavered from my townread for long and never advocated an andante elim

and you can't tell me my t3 vote wasn't justified

p-edit please show me where i crumbed gs

[InsidiousLemons]

is this post an example of advocating for an andante elim? do i not say multiple times in that post that i townread them? your attempt to discredit me here is silly. the strongest words i have are that i'm "not opposed" to the idea that she could be scum

p-edit yeah? that push on andante lasted for what, 5 or 6 more of my posts? and then i never launched a significant attack on them again. pressure, sure, but i never wanted them dead

[InsidiousLemons]

woah are you trying to get killed night 1 insidious

We can just ask the mafia doctor to save insidious!!! duh! lmao (but for real, maf, we value insidious, and it would be greatly appreciated if you kept him around! Thank you)

this game is going to make me lose my mind. the longer i stare at this post the more i begin to think it's one of the most telling things andante has posted this whole game. what actual reason does town have to post this?

Also what reason does mafia have to post this though

i was talking about the bit in parentheses -- it's clearly meant to be taken more seriously than the rest of the post ("but for real"). talking to Mafia, Generally, Wherever You May Be in this way pings like noobscum. town has no reason to ask scum not to kill someone they like, it's just one more reason for scum to kill them

woah are you trying to get killed night 1 insidious

We can just ask the mafia doctor to save insidious!!! duh! lmao (but for real, maf, we value insidious, and it would be greatly appreciated if you kept him around! Thank you)

this game is going to make me lose my mind. the longer i stare at this post the more i begin to think it's one of the most telling things andante has posted this whole game. what actual reason does town have to post this?

you don't like my lines? wooow I was just joking with Anya? Are you trying to say I can't have a little fun? that's suspicious... that's weird...

if you were joking the whole time then why separate the post into two parts? why say "but for real?"

so I have determined. there's not a scum read I'm super confident in at this point in time.
Also, I love the game advancing content rule, it annoys me when people just go "hi I'm here" and that counts

I think it was crayons or dragon I was feeling was weird, idk. I don't even remember what I told yall last night, should probably start there I know I said Asteria felt off, ahhhh if someone has a confident sr, please out it

not remembering what you told us <24 hours ago --> low familiarity with your own (fabricated?) opinions --> scumtell
"please talk loudly about your scumreads so i can wagon them" --> scumtell

Andante – Town
Anya - Town
Andresvmb - Town
InsidiousLemons - Town
Save The Dragons - Sus
Green Crayons - Town
Asteria – Sus
PawnsGambit – leaning town
VFP –
Haschel Cedricson –
Salsabil Faria –
Osuka –
Robert M Hunter -


Ok, I collected my thoughts from yesterday for yall, and I realized, I haven't outed a read on osuka, then that had me thinking, how do I read osuka? they certainly have lots of content here, always posting. I skimmed through some lines of theirs, and at this time, I honestly don't know how I read them, like, I could see a town and a scum argument, so for them, I'll wait till later to sort. Haschel said he was posting after work, never did, but I was the same with yesterday morning, so, I'd love to see more content there. VFP? idk. I think I saw maybe 1 VFP post, they've just been flying under the radar tbh. Salsa. if I'm being completely honest, I'd probably call scum, solely based on their anger reaction to osuka. They got mad, and left, but, 3they've been v/la or whatever so I'd love to hear actual content from them, cause their lines before leaving were far from great. And lastly, Robert. I really don't know. like, robert will jump in with weird lines, their entrance to the game was also far from great, but like, I could see them coming from a town mindset. yeah. that's where my brain is at

this whole paragraph is almost purely iioa. also strange to me that you only back up your null reads and don't mention your, you know, actual reads. if you only saw "maybe 1" vfp post, you need to go back and read the goddamn game. null because i don't care enough to read their posts isn't a read. you've complained about ISOing as if it's something you're never actually going to do, and moaned and grumbled about going back to find a specific post to back up your arguments early in the game. you shouldn't be upset by people asking you to do this, it is literally how to play forum mafia. you can't win without ever looking at ISO, without ever going back and rereading.

@andres what is your claim? night 0 cop?

Lemons, I could do the same right back at you, what reason does town have to post this? What if Andres took it as you were actually asking them to claim? no reason for town to care about claims 30 posts into the game

for someone so concerned about not letting people have fun, you're pretty pressed about this second-page post. i guess i could have made it more obviously joking in tone, but andres would have to be actually braindead to claim in response to this post. we were in rvs. chill

i don’t think that was the case a number of years ago but i do distinctly recall a point where it felt like i woke up and suddenly daytalk just seemed to be the norm

i'm content with this for now given gc's backup and the fact that i haven't been on the site in a few years.

I'm not going to write the ***** word....

Spoiler:

post of the game

there's this too dude like im not gonna pretend i never scumread them but i never wanted them dead

[InsidiousLemons]

if y'all could stop 3-on-1 tag teaming me and give me a chance to respond to individual threads of reasoning that would be great.

@andres what about my pushes on andante is scum indicative to you?
@dkkoba my last game on here was played when i was fourteen years old. i'm still the same human being but meta at that point is pretty much useless. please show me which posts you see these crumbs in because i have no idea what you could possibly be referring to
@vfp what is the partner equity you see between myself and anya? or are you going based off of individual reads on each of us?

[InsidiousLemons]

never wavered from my townread for long and never advocated an andante elim

This is clearly a lie I don’t care what you say.

Like never advocating for an Andante execution is just slimy wording. It’s not taking any ownership over your actual words. You clearly implied they could be Scum, questioned how some of their posts could ever be made from a Town mindset, but yeah maybe you never voted there so you never strictly advocated for their execution. Like give me a break.

no, i'm pretty sure i did vote there. i'm referring to the fact that i never got a wagon going on them and never said they were my preferred elim for the day, which in my mind are things generally associated with a "push" rather than with "pressure". if i'm misinterpreting feel free to tell me so but i genuinely don't feel i ever put them in a dangerous position or attempted to do so. the one time i got some votes on them they noped out of the thread for like, an entire day. i think that's a valid reason to keep the pressure on, no?

@vfp what is the partner equity you see between myself and anya? or are you going based off of individual reads on each of us?

Anya is obvious scum.
Your claim feels out of place and looks to be preventing an Anya lim or a decent wagon growing.

Out of all of the claims I think yours is the worst with results.
Plus the fact I said earlier that your posting was not town mind with a PR gun.

you can keep arguing this point and i'll keep telling you that yeah, pooky was a suboptimal choice and that yeah, i was trying to keep a low profile. was it the best play to save my claim for today? i think so, but if i'm wrong it may be because i am refamiliarizing myself with this game for the first time since middle school lol

[InsidiousLemons]

not gonna fall back on the "i'm rusty" defense but please understand there is a difference between missing connections/making suboptimal plays and playing from a scum mindset

[InsidiousLemons]

this is confirmed wrong because the number of guns in this solve is wrong

koba vig asteria neapo = 2 guns

anya/lemons = 2 guns

our dead informed gunsmith = 1 gun

btw our dead informed gunsmith said there were 4 guns

That's true actually.
So Roleblocker Traitor and Doc Anya?

are you seriously telling me you think it's more likely there's a dual roleblocker/traitor than that Dk is just. y'know. lying about getting roleblocked and has somehow had it work out for them for 2 consecutive days

[InsidiousLemons]

this is a lil sad folks. can we not quicklim 11 hours into day 3 pls?

people make scum slips dude. it happens. how is pointing out what you see as a potential slip a bad thing? win/win because if you're right then it's possible the scum will flounder and if you're wrong then someone will usually point out why they think so and a good discussion can come of it. if i was gonna try and get asteria miselimed on a "scumslip" don't you think i would've tried to capitalize off something that was a little more thought out rather than just firing it off halfway through my shift?

p-edit because every-night roleblocker plus doctor is ludicrously scum-sided?

[InsidiousLemons]

However, to you me and Asteria should be scum, so why does it matter here if I believe you?

why so? i retracted my push on asteria after realizing i was being a fucking idiot and needed to slow down and read

[InsidiousLemons]

she tried to claim investigation and we didn't let her because andante already took her claim lol

[InsidiousLemons]

uniformed targets?

also we have a week not 11 days but i think the bear is right. we can afford to pace ourselves a lil here

[InsidiousLemons]

but didn't we just establish traitor knows who the scum are? why would they both target vig? are they not allowed to communicate with the scum?

[InsidiousLemons]

gimme a minute im gonna read the fucking actual wiki page

[InsidiousLemons]

okay, back. i understand how the traitor works now. what was throwing me off before is that i read all the potential variations but didn't notice the normal guidelines section so i thought it was all fair game. i have to say that in that situation yeah, traitor rb might be a bit more plausible. i actually don't know why someone wouldn't counterclaim the vig at this point, so maybe there is some credibility to the roleblocker theory. but if that's the case then the only other option is you (vfp) and asteria and now i don't know what the fuck to think. it is still within the realm of possibility to me that both asteria and dk are lying but asteria has been doing a solid job of looking town to me recently. i think i need to step away and come back with a more objective perspective

[InsidiousLemons]

she tried to claim investigation and we didn't let her because andante already took her claim lol

*they, *them

getting my players confused, apologies koba

p-edit what the fuck is happening

[InsidiousLemons]

Ok, I don't understand the mechanics being discussed in relation to the scum doctors and guns, so I need someone to summarize the claims and results in a simplified way.

there are 4 guns. claims on the board so far are:
- andante (gunsmith, confirmed)
- koba (weak vig)
- asteria (non-consecutive night neapolitan)
- me (n2 rolecop)
- you (n1 detective)

the only mafia who count as NOT having guns are traitors and doctors. there is 1 doctor, confirmed. if there is 1 mafia doctor, everyone except 2 people are lying about their claims. if there is a mafia doctor and a traitor, everyone except 1 person is lying about their claim. at this point i'm beginning to think this setup is more about the gunsmith and their information and the doctor is a red herring. there may be no town killing role at all, though i'm not sure how bastardly or Normal it is to have a doctor who functions solely to obscure gunsmith results. what the fuck is this game

[InsidiousLemons]

agreed @vfp. we need as many pieces of the puzzle as possible atp

[InsidiousLemons]

UNVOTE:

[InsidiousLemons]

do you have any suspicions about who the other townies/scum in the gun claims are?

[InsidiousLemons]

@vfp salsa was speaking in that post of flipping you to clear koba, not asteria

[InsidiousLemons]

i keep having trouble following your points and i don't know if anyone else finds that or if i'm just brain-dead today. can you walk me through what you're trying to say with 3525? what relation does salsa's quoted post have to the number of guns?

[InsidiousLemons]

i keep having trouble following your points and i don't know if anyone else finds that or if i'm just brain-dead today. can you walk me through what you're trying to say with 3525? what relation does salsa's quoted post have to the number of guns?

Salsa is Clidd.
So they know they have a gun as town.
At this point they see claims of GS, Vig, Neo.

That is 4 guns. I don't get the impression that scum has to be in the PRs for them as they are still very focused on me as scum.

I'm just saying, if I had a gun and 3 others are claimed I'm going to be calling out here. Not to mention they are 1 shot apparently so it's not like there's a downside to claiming there.

okay yeah, this is solid logic. i can't really say anything for the first part about not intervening with a counterclaim because i did the same thing, but i can see how not claiming in this situation looks pretty scummy for both me and salsa. even moreso because salsa was essentially a VT at this point if clidd's claim is to be believed. definitely casts some doubt but i agree with pooky that it's a pretty monumentally stupid fakeclaim when you could just, you know. keep your damn mouth shut

[InsidiousLemons]

right. i weighed the odds and decided a check was better, which it probably would've been if i had shed some light on asteria.

why do you think their flip gives us info on clidd?

[InsidiousLemons]

[quote="In post 3559, VFP"][/quote]

no, that interpretation seems correct. at the time i read it as a misunderstanding of what other people were proposing, but i could see it as salsa wanting to "clear" scum!asteria as town with your VT flip upon elimination. the logic doesn't really follow in reverse though -- asteria flipping neap clears you as VT, but not so much the other way around. there is clear scum motivation behind reversing the order like that, if asteria is scum

p-edit offtopic but what does nrg stand for

[InsidiousLemons]

oops you know what i was going for

[InsidiousLemons]

heyo thanks supposed rb for preventing the supposed vig shot from killing me and preventing my supposed night action

if that's what actually happened u guys kinda owned urselves lol

p-edit i'm exhausted and shouldn't be playing right now but i cant help keeping an eye on the thread. i should probably take that break i was talking about and come back in like 12 hours after the mass claim when i actually feel able to put some effort into detective work

[InsidiousLemons]

how does lemons know i am a vanilla townie !?!?

this is the stupidest technicality ever
my result returned was "vanilla" and by process of elimination you had to be townie because you're unarmed, therefore confirmed VT

[InsidiousLemons]

i agree with a lot of the points being made on dk and by play they are a very solid scumread for me. what i'm getting stuck on is that, as multiple people have pointed out, if there's a "real" vig they would have almost certainly cc'd or managed to kill someone by now. and if there is no other vig, then we have to ask ourselves: does a setup with a red herring mafia doctor really make it into the normal queue? my strong suspicion is no, but i'm unfamiliar with the approval process so i'd like to hear from people who are

[InsidiousLemons]

how does lemons know i am a vanilla townie !?!?

more importantly: how the fuck did you not realize that lemons clearing you as vanilla _townie_ was extremely strange?

you gotta be scum or brain-dead to make this point because i know you know andante cleared pooky as unarmed

[InsidiousLemons]

anya and osuka nowhere to be seen

i literally worked until 2 am last night, fuck off

fake mad lmfao

Give Osuka credit, he needs to make the catch up look realistic and useful bless him.

being working class isn't AI

[InsidiousLemons]

andante was the one who cleared pooky. not Asteria. and andante is conftown because she's literally dead

[InsidiousLemons]

andante was the one who cleared pooky. not Asteria. and andante is conftown because she's literally dead

I'm not sure why this is the part in question here.

just assuming asteria's claim is true

[InsidiousLemons]

ok so i just won a town game with anya in it - lowkey my read on anya has been flipping in it because of it, and i lean town on her here based off it now, even though her push on me is bad.

what's giving you this feeling? gonna take a look at the game but i'd like to hear your thoughts since you were in it

[InsidiousLemons]

i'm not gonna make too much fun of you because i would feel bad, armed with the knowledge that life is probably already hard enough for someone of your wit

I see your come backs are just as weak as your catch ups.
Bless you for trying, I guess.

have at it, i'm constrained because i've been warned several times for having said uncomfortable truths about other players' mental acuity and i don't want to be force-replaced because that would make datisi sad, so i'm just gonna leave my beliefs about you strongly implied

I do not believe that Osuka confused Andante with asteria given how much of a song and dance Osuka has made over it.

believe what you want, you're quite literally incapable of making a case to a stunning degree so really i already know ahead of time nothing useful is coming out of your slot. feel free to try

can we not do this?

seconded. polluting the thread with toxicity and insults will get us no closer to a solve, will make it harder for others to catch up, and makes the game less enjoyable for everyone involved. please knock it off.

[InsidiousLemons]

this is @both of you

[InsidiousLemons]

ok so i just won a town game with anya in it - lowkey my read on anya has been flipping in it because of it, and i lean town on her here based off it now, even though her push on me is bad.

what's giving you this feeling? gonna take a look at the game but i'd like to hear your thoughts since you were in it

no.

okay lol

had a very brief skim of anya's iso and a couple of specific convos and yeah, i guess her post history looks kinda similar. there's nothing to compare it to though, because they've only ever rolled town in their completed games as far as i can tell

[InsidiousLemons]

sorry i'm mixing pronouns -- the above post is in reference to anya and anya alone

p-edit stop

[InsidiousLemons]

(assumed VT)?

did you happen to catch the many times this was disproven or were you too busy "juicin"

also: will it help if i ask what your case is on osuka from an outside perspective? because i'm looking and i still don't really understand why you're so convinced he's scum. you've had a hard scumread on him since, like, page 7 or something. there was the bit about how you didn't understand/see merit in some of his posts early on (editor's note: 1835) and how he was being caustic -- i agree he was unnecessarily hostile in response to a simple request for clarification, but toxicity isn't really AI to me.

249 is you saying "i'm gonna tunnel you without regard for your good posts, only your mistakes" which is. literally just what scum do

you ask about where osuka is directly engaging with players but he's been doing that all game so that doesn't really apply anymore

your scumpool in 642 is 3 conftown and osuka, 2 of whom are now dead which is. interesting

this is just turning into an iso skim now but you get the point

everything past this point just seems to be inflammatory insults from both sides and a restatement of the assertion that osuka is "doing nothing" and being "a juicer". what is your case? are you just keeping your promises from 249? i'm not trying to ask this in bad faith but i'm having a hard time thinking you're actually looking at this player's post history objectively

[InsidiousLemons]

it makes 0 sense for clidd-scum to claim yet another gun when the gunpool is already exploded past the number

it's not unreasonable to think there could have been a certain measure of deliberateness in that, hoping to play town enough that the foolishness of such an unlikely claim would absolve him somewhat. not familiar with clidd's meta but people seem to think of him as a formidable player and he's presented himself well to me so far

i don't think it's worth busting out the tinfoil on that one this early though, just something to keep in mind. better options for today

[InsidiousLemons]

though in saying that i recognize that i am still unvoted and am no closer to reconciling my read on koba with the contradictions i brought up in 3678

p-edit i feel like a mod wouldn't word an info pm that ambiguously. why not just say "there are x total guns in the game"?

the fact that andante kept specifically referencing knowing "the number of guns in the game" and not "the number of people with guns" supports this

[InsidiousLemons]

So I know how many people "have guns" this game

look, pooky, to be fair... I have that number, I am 1 in it

idk if I out how many guns in play

based on the number of guns tbh

whatever, there's 4 guns total this game, I have 1, and 3 others are out there

so you're an informed gunsmith?

lmao no joke.. I was like "nah not informed, just gunsmith and I know the 4 guns in play" then I reread my role PM... informed gunsmith lmao

this is pretty conclusive imo

[InsidiousLemons]

?

[InsidiousLemons]

i don't know why you're assuming 2 armed scum though. in a game with an informed gunsmith and a mafia doctor, doesn't it make perfect sense to put a traitor in there to make the gunsmith's info less reliable? maybe even a traitor PR (like RB) to balance things out? i don't want to get too deep into setup spec but there's a reason these possibilities have been raised.

p-edit i don't really have an eye for balance but mafia doctor + mafia goon + mafia traitor roleblocker could actually be argued to be more plausible, since it would remove the ability for the mafia to coordinate a roleblock and open up the possibility for the doctor themself to get rb'd

[InsidiousLemons]

i need to look through koba's iso with this in mind and decide if it helps my headache or worsens it

[InsidiousLemons]

wait nevermind that second point i keep forgetting the traitor knows who the mafia are i promise i'm not trying to dumbtell

p-edit ah fuck okay lemme reread

[InsidiousLemons]

i feel like i remember the possibility being raised a long while ago that koba might be faking the weak modifier in an attempt to spare themself from an NK, and get an extra vig shot after the first time they hit scum. could that make things any more balanced? informed gs + one-shot rolecop + full vig isn't incredibly powerful, but knowing that datisi is notoriously scum-favouring and that the gs had very useful info might make it more plausible?

[InsidiousLemons]

also thank you for the chart it's incredibly helpful

[InsidiousLemons]

i'm beginning to convince myself that it is actually koba. as much as i abhor their (koba's) post history, clidd has backed up koba's own assertion that nothing they're doing is outside of their range for either alignment, and i could read much (not all) of koba's frustration as genuine.

n2 rolecop and non-con neo is not an unimaginable combination, but is n2 rolecop + non-con neo + informed gs even strong enough to go toe-to-toe with our hypothetical doctor + goon + traitor roleblocker scumteam, let alone if the roleblocker is a bonafide member of the mafia?

n2 rolecop + n1 detective is even weaker against those scumteams, and regardless i really don't get the sense that salsa is the type of player who would withhold night action info. nonetheless, in D1, salsa does indeed seem suspicious enough of you (1524, 1526, 1534, etc.) that i could believe she investigated you N1.

there's almost nothing to go off of D2 (i.e., after she would have checked you), but does 2489 really strike you as possible from a salsa who

knows

you didn't kill anyone the previous night? and does a salsa with this partially-absolving information on you, who was suspicious enough of you on D1 to emphatically state "you're scum!" (1524), withhold it the next day? it's almost unthinkable. i could see a universe where clidd skimmed salsa's iso for a player she pushed D1 and decided to claim something modest based off of that. the meagre nature of the claim, the safety of claiming an innocent result on an already-conftown player, and the perceived boldness/foolishness of this claim coming from scum could easily be enough to convince clidd to make this play.

but the last reason for me to think that my partner-in-truth is koba (and possibly most the convincing reason, though i leave that question to all of you) is this same thing i keep getting stuck on -- does a setup with a mafia doctor and

no town killing roles

seriously make it into the normal queue? all the claims are out. there's no reason for an unclaimed vig to lie at this point, that i can see. this is kind of an open question, so please tell me if you think it's possible this setup could in fact get past the review process. it just seems so unlikely to me that a setup so bastardly and deceptive would be allowed in a non-open game.

[InsidiousLemons]

noted, thank you. the rest of the post still stands though, and after writing out my thoughts in full i feel fairly confident that koba is the most likely to be telling the truth

[InsidiousLemons]

@ clidd i think catching this much heat at the start of D3 disqualifies me from that particular classification

but go ahead and say i might be regular ol' scum if you like. after all, process of elimination means the feeling is mutual

@pooky that is a little disappointing but at the end of the day i suppose a play-based solve is more fun and rewarding in the long run than a mechanical one. makes sense that they would opt to leave the possibility for wifom within the setup spec itself

[InsidiousLemons]

interesting. can you elaborate on what you think makes us not aligned?

[InsidiousLemons]

Unless there is only one scum between claims.

In that case, you could both be town (and the scumteam would look like Asteria + Osuka + Andres)

pedit: I don't see you two as S | S, but this is a personal interpretation of mine. I feel that the way you talked about them did not strike me as an approach about a scum partner (in the scum!you scenario).

i'm pretty sure it is literally impossible for there to only be one scum amongst the claims. good info otherwise, but let me be more specific: what is it about the scenario where i'm town that would make Dk scum?

[InsidiousLemons]

right. missing the fact that you are town from your perspective is probably an indicator that i should head to bed. it's past 2am here

[InsidiousLemons]

i've never heard the term moonlogic before but i am absolutely going to steal it

[InsidiousLemons]

does 2489 really strike you as possible from a salsa who

knows

you didn't kill anyone the previous night? and does a salsa with this partially-absolving information on you, who was suspicious enough of you on D1 to emphatically state "you're scum!" (1524), withhold it the next day?

@pooky i wouldn't mind your earnest take on this

[InsidiousLemons]

[InsidiousLemons]

i'm beginning to convince myself that it is actually koba. as much as i abhor their (koba's) post history, clidd has backed up koba's own assertion that nothing they're doing is outside of their range for either alignment, and i could read much (not all) of koba's frustration as genuine.

n2 rolecop and non-con neo is not an unimaginable combination, but is n2 rolecop + non-con neo + informed gs even strong enough to go toe-to-toe with our hypothetical doctor + goon + traitor roleblocker scumteam, let alone if the roleblocker is a bonafide member of the mafia?

n2 rolecop + n1 detective is even weaker against those scumteams, and regardless i really don't get the sense that salsa is the type of player who would withhold night action info. nonetheless, in D1, salsa does indeed seem suspicious enough of you (1524, 1526, 1534, etc.) that i could believe she investigated you N1.

there's almost nothing to go off of D2 (i.e., after she would have checked you), but does 2489 really strike you as possible from a salsa who

knows

you didn't kill anyone the previous night? and does a salsa with this partially-absolving information on you, who was suspicious enough of you on D1 to emphatically state "you're scum!" (1524), withhold it the next day? it's almost unthinkable. i could see a universe where clidd skimmed salsa's iso for a player she pushed D1 and decided to claim something modest based off of that. the meagre nature of the claim, the safety of claiming an innocent result on an already-conftown player, and the perceived boldness/foolishness of this claim coming from scum could easily be enough to convince clidd to make this play.

but the last reason for me to think that my partner-in-truth is koba (and possibly most the convincing reason, though i leave that question to all of you) is this same thing i keep getting stuck on -- does a setup with a mafia doctor and

no town killing roles

seriously make it into the normal queue? all the claims are out. there's no reason for an unclaimed vig to lie at this point, that i can see. this is kind of an open question, so please tell me if you think it's possible this setup could in fact get past the review process. it just seems so unlikely to me that a setup so bastardly and deceptive would be allowed in a non-open game.

the more you humour them being wolf without actually voting for them the more i think you're partners

why not just pull the trigger

you read this post wrong

i'm saying i think koba is the other townie along with myself

[InsidiousLemons]

there was no momentum on their push at that moment, and there was a general consensus that it was a good idea to slow down and do a mass claim. i figured the mass claim and ensuing discussion would shed enough light on the situation that it wasn't productive to keep voting someone before that new information came out

[InsidiousLemons]

i have to say i think it's smart to stick within the gun claims today. we have a way better chance of finding scum and several of us have claimed roles that are no longer useful meaning lower chance of a PR miselim

the interaction between clidd and asteria feels off to me but i cant really put my finger on why. clidd was more accepting of asteria's explanation than i expected him to be -- it wasn't a bad one but it wasn't as absolving to me as clidd seems to think it is

[InsidiousLemons]

obviously not a lower chance of a PR miselim than the VT pool -- but a lower chance than would normally be associated with sticking to a PR claim pool

[InsidiousLemons]

imagine koba claiming VT after all that lol

[InsidiousLemons]

yeah that was a dumb fuckin play and honestly i would kinda get it if you guys lim me for it eventually

i was just so goddamn sure that pooky would come back doctor and there's really nothing more to it than that. this is what i was talking about re: emotionally based play clouding my judgement. you saw it in my night action, you saw it in me losing my cool over getting only a couple of votes on me a few pages back. if it is what gets me killed my biggest regret is that a green flip from me won't really give you guys any new info since pooky is like. ultracleared atp

[InsidiousLemons]

not gonna lie though if i had a do-over i would still check asteria over you. sorry not sorry

[InsidiousLemons]

I wonder why you were scumposting on the last page before engaging with me.

it's this post that pings for me. there's an implication here that asteria has become a townread because of her explanation

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: clidd

asteria is scummier by play but tonight is the night when the non-con neo gets shot if town so i'd prefer not to lim there today

[InsidiousLemons]

thanks! i'm officially a washed-up twentysomething lol

[InsidiousLemons]

@Lemons / Dk / asteria / Clidd

Can you list in order your views on scum to town within the VTs? (Me, Pooky, Anya, Osuka, Andre) I'm not looking for reasons (at least at this point).

right now form scum to town it's probably:

VFP, andres, osuka, anya, pooky

keep in mind though i don't believe there's more than one scum in here to begin with, so it's a bit misleading to put them in a linear order since everyone after VFP is at least a townlean. i wrote out my reasons so i have them on standby when you want 'em. i assume you don't want them yet because you don't want some of us piggybacking off of others, which i guess makes sense

[InsidiousLemons]

@Lemon

Assuming that your elimination occurs today, do you have final reads?

aight here goes hail mary readslist time

GUN POOL (2 scum):

clidd: the second most likely to be scum, and my personal pick for an elim today. a large part of the reason comes from the knowledge of my own role -- i don't think d1 detective/n2 rolecop/gunsmith is nearly strong enough. as i've said before, it's strongly suspect to me that salsa wouldn't reveal their N1 check info. asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP

koba:

asteria:

lemons: idk check was kinda sus :/

VT POOL (1 scum)

osuka:

anya:

andres:

VFP:

pooky: conf-VT

[InsidiousLemons]

uhhh lol \

[InsidiousLemons]

disregard that post i fatfingered the send button somehow. gimme like an hour and i'll have it properly drawn up, still rereading

[InsidiousLemons]

okay readslist take two

note: i go more in-depth on my mechanical analysis of the gun pool in 3776. my opinions on this subject have not changed since then, except where superseded by this post.

GUN POOL

(2 scum):

koba

: by play, this is a difficult read to make. the initial claim does still stick out to me as strange, even with the knowledge that koba pulls claim fuckery more often than a lot of players. a lot of their emotional reactions to things read as genuine to me, and i think (my perception of) a low incidence of faked emotion is mild town AI. their shot at VFP seems to follow a towny thought process: asteria is likely scum made likelier by the knowledge koba has of their own role in relation to the other guns -- but to be safe and to avoid wasting a shot on the person who was already the NK, you don't shoot at the claimed PR, you shoot at their partner. this tracks for me, and the folks calling it a scummy shot are being a bit opportunistic imo. the rest of their play goes back and forth between towny and scummy -- upon reflection, while i don't love their ISO, it was an overstep to say in 3776 that i "abhor" their posting history. the reason i think koba is town is largely mechanical reasons and PoE: it makes sense for there to be a vig in the game, no one has cc'd, and vig is a risky claim to make as scum. my scumreads on asteria and clidd factor into this slightly, but a lot of my PoE for who is scum in the gun pool is solidified by my mechanical confidence that koba is town.

clidd

: the second most likely to be scum, and my personal pick for an elim today. part of the reason comes from the knowledge of my own role -- i don't think d1 detective/n2 rolecop/gunsmith is nearly strong enough. as i've said before, it's strongly suspect to me that salsa wouldn't reveal their N1 check info. salsa's D1 and early D2 play also just generally doesn't strike me as coming from a town PR mentality. i could see most of it coming from a VT mentality, and that's where i was leaning before we got some more mechanical info, but clidd's claim destroys that possibility. there is a point to be made that the end of 1539 could indicate "has-a-gun" mentality in that they took pooky's 2-gun claim so strongly, but 1677 seems to negate it. from my 3776:

there's almost nothing to go off of D2 (i.e., after she would have checked you [editor's note: pooky]), but does 2489 really strike you as possible from a salsa who

knows

you didn't kill anyone the previous night? and does a salsa with this partially-absolving information on you, who was suspicious enough of you on D1 to emphatically state "you're scum!" (1524), withhold it the next day? it's almost unthinkable. i could see a universe where clidd skimmed salsa's iso for a player she pushed D1 and decided to claim something modest based off of that. the meagre nature of the claim, the safety of claiming an innocent result on an already-conftown player, and the perceived boldness/foolishness of this claim coming from scum could easily be enough to convince clidd to make this play.

this makes up the bulk of my case. clidd seems like a player who knows what he's doing, and i don't think people should judge the boldness of his claim to be as town-indicative as they do. the last thing i want to say is that clidd's interactions with asteria from 153-155 read as distancing to me. i think scum!clidd

knows

asteria won't be the elim today because of the likelihood that town!asteria will be the NK, which is why he's comfortable initiating a push. he even takes the opportunity to cast suspicion on Dk for sheeping him before deciding that it looks like an asteria elim won't happen after all.

asteria

: as i've said, their initial claim when confronted with a GS check felt like scum floundering, and their interactions with VFP leak a fake taste in my mouth -- like aspartame, to get anya-esque -- especially immediately after the claim. their ISO reads as a whole lot of posting to post. they take up lots of space on the page to pad out their post history, but beneath the surface it's heavily skewed towards IIoA. see 3776 for more mechanical details, but i don't think a non-con neo coexists with an N2 rolecop in this setup. PoE also indicates to me that this slot is likely scum because i'm reading koba as town.

lemons

: fatfingered the submit button and ruined his fuckin joke --> policy lim

VT POOL

(1 scum)

i'll be honest and say that the reasoning i "wrote out" in 3967 were little more than jot notes, and i'm gonna recant the ordering from that post. i took a minute or two to think about what my gut feelings and memories of each player were, slapped em into an order and hit post before heading to work so i wouldn't get prodded (you'll notice it was posted 13 minutes before my prod timer would have expired). yeah, this wasn't a great idea, but i'd rather sheepishly admit that i took my birthday off from this game and decided to do a bald-faced prod-dodge

now

, rather than trying to defend a gut ordering of the VT pool when i have the opportunity to do a better analysis. with that said:

pooky

: conf-VT via N2 check

osuka

: his aggressiveness and toxicity are hard to ignore, but as i've said before, i think not ultimately AI either way. i get a similar feeling as with andres that his thought process is organic, and he hasn't made any scummy leaps of logic or particularly opportunistic pushes this game, from my point of view. he's been a little sparser in his posting recently (he claims due to work, and i see no reason to disbelieve this), and i disagree with his logic occasionally, but his mentality seems decently town to me. bonus points for never jumping on the STD wagon, as far as i can see

andres

: andres has been a solid townlean to me for pretty much the whole game -- he's gotten off on the wrong track sometimes, but overall he really seems to be a townie trying to figure his way through the game from an unbiased standpoint. he's good at considering alternate angles and motivations for different actions, and while from scum these might feel forced, from andres they mostly strike me as organic. 3407, while incorrect, comes to mind as a relatively recent example of this kind of posting. he sometimes gets thinking in a direction, posts his way through it, then retracts and rethinks before even being challenged when his conclusions don't match the facts. this indicates a natural and town-minded way of thinking and playing to me, rather than the more metered and calculated approach one might expect from scum.

anya

: while her ISO is mostly consistent with her town meta, anya really isn't doing a whole lot this game and tends to avoid making strong accusations or crafting complex theories. it's worth noting that she was on both the STD and T3 wagons, but the way she hammered STD is weird coming from scum. (but maybe that was the point?) if asteria or VFP flip green, i think it's most likely you find scum here.

VFP

: a lot of my read on this slot is based on the idea that vfp's reaction test in 2566 was faked, which i still believe to be true. there is partner equity between vfp and asteria, and vfp's play in this game has generally felt focused on self-defense and looking for convenient pushes rather than looking for scum. i actually think their posting has gotten a bit better more recently, but overall i'm not impressed. asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP doesn't seem to agree. possibly trying to cover for finalscum!clidd in the case where asteria flips red and vfp is next?

[InsidiousLemons]

@Lemon

Just as an imagination exercise, how would your reads adapt to the town!Clidd scenario?

this would make my solve koba + asteria + VFP -- putting koba in place of you doesn't significantly affect my reads of the VT pool, since neither of you feel particularly linked to any one member of that pool, and asteria remains tied to VFP. in turn, at a glance, none of the VTs themselves have done anything major to try and dismantle a wagon on koba, or to defend them unnecessarily or suspiciously. mechanically, this means the scumteam is probably doc + goon + traitor since koba would be lying about an RB, but i'm not sure that this really affects much either. it's still a strange team versus N1 detective + N2 rolecop + GS, but assuming pooky's setup insight is true (and it is -- he has no reason to lie), i suppose it could at least be possible as an extremely WIFOM-y setup where town is in a race to clear people as non-killing roles on consecutive nights before all the claims are dead.

ultimately, though, my reads are based less upon the gamestate as a moment in time and more upon

changes

to the gamestate. the evidence for me just isn't there that this is the reality. if you were cleared as town, this information wouldn't just appear in a vaccuum, something would have to change. you do something that i believe is well outside the realm of possibility for scum!clidd, or someone clears you, or you flip. all of these things would affect my reads on other players more than just "assume clidd is town and go from there".

[InsidiousLemons]

As a whole Dk feels like the right option here as they are linked 3 of 4 to be scum.

you have dk paired with 3 other possible scum. doesn't that make it the worst elimination in terms of information gain, since the entropy is only minimally decreased? if you have a lemons flip, for example, then your pool is smaller than it would be if you had a koba flip. how did you get to this point in your thought process?

I was purely talking about flipping scum.
I've made it clear that I want to lim in between the PRs not.VT.
Please read properly in the future is saves a lot of time.

this doesn't really follow for me. osuka is asking you what a Dk scumflip means about other players, and what your plan is for

after

the flip. and you don't seem to have one, or even to have thought about who the most likely partner is for Koba to have within the gun pool, which doesn't indicate to me that you really believe they're going to flip scum. correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like the last time you proposed or agreed with a solve was back in 3435, before everyone had even claimed. i can believe that the questions at the bottom of 3938 were asked with the desire to

formulate

this plan, but by 4037 you've got all your answers and seem no closer to a solution.

[InsidiousLemons]

The change of instance of Dk on Anya is a bit radical, but not necessarily scummy, maybe town "omgusing". Anya has reflected me as generic town for a while due to the organic way of posting, but I would not rule out the chance of scum!she, although I would also had to

force my mind to accept that Osuka and Andres are both town

to accept such scenario.

pedit: I can vote there too.

you may have said this already, but can you explain why you're so confident that Osuka v Andres is svt?

[InsidiousLemons]

Spoiler:

@Lemon

Assuming that your elimination occurs today, do you have final reads?

aight here goes hail mary readslist time

GUN POOL (2 scum):

clidd: the second most likely to be scum, and my personal pick for an elim today. a large part of the reason comes from the knowledge of my own role -- i don't think d1 detective/n2 rolecop/gunsmith is nearly strong enough. as i've said before, it's strongly suspect to me that salsa wouldn't reveal their N1 check info. asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP

koba:

asteria:

lemons: idk check was kinda sus :/

VT POOL (1 scum)

osuka:

anya:

andres:

VFP:

pooky: conf-VT

And this was "hey, look, I don't have a PT to post" ^

town can request a drafts PT too. not sure how me not doing that is AI

from the first post:

miscellaneous:

~ let me know if you want a private thread to store your thoughts and feedback for the other players. you may draft posts in your notes pt if the posts are clearly meant to be posted in the main thread. you may not directly quote from the notes pt. you may not use it to demonstrate that you've had a town mindset in private all along; just put your town mindset in public to begin with and keep your notes to yourself.

[InsidiousLemons]

can you point to examples of what you think is a fabricated thought process?

and finally, still no response from clidd on this, other than:

Lemon + Asteria + Osuka is my solve.

"i think that post was generated, and i find your thought process scummy" (3990, 3991, 3994) is an easy attack to make and a hard one to defend against because the only real response is "well, you're wrong, my thought process there

was

coming from a town perspective." a great way to resolve this is to point out specific instances where the logic doesn't follow through and press your target on them, which clidd doesn't seem interested in doing.

Or a contrary consensus advocating my elimination for information (if people want a more difficult game mode).

poof! you have 2 more wishes

i'm headed to work in 3 hours, and will be around to answer questions until then. i recognize that my presence in this thread has been pretty light over the course of my bday weekend, and i thank you for letting me take that time without running me up to E-1 or a lim. if i'm at work before clidd responds, please no one activate hardmode until he has a chance to respond to being put at E-1

[InsidiousLemons]

putting koba in place of you [editor's note: clidd] doesn't significantly affect my reads of the VT pool, since neither of you feel particularly linked to any one member of that pool

a slight correction: i don't find it very likely that koba and anya are scum together, so if the combination is somehow scum!koba, scum!asteria, town!vfp, then clidd and vfp flipping green in this universe would affect my

next

most likely scum in the VT pool (after VFP). in that scenario there would be scum between osuka and andres, which i guess could be clidd's line of reasoning as he believes vfp and anya to be town. i'm not going to do an ISO comb for both of these players (osuka and andres) to determine which one is more likely to be scum, because now we're talking about an elim that isn't on the table today and likely isn't even on the table in this universe. if circumstances necessitate a thorough analysis of who is scum between osuka and andres, i'll do one, but i don't think it's needed for the purposes of an imagination exercise.

[InsidiousLemons]

asteria plus clidd is absolutely an acceptable combination to me and i find it strange that VFP doesn't seem to agree.

So scum decide to push each others wagons (as the second votes) without attempting for a different wagon in the PRs?
Why is it strange that I don't agree with this in particular considering others also aren't thinking a different direction?

This part of the comment is just wierd, and you were doing yourself a favour until this point.

yeah, i don't really see this as that implausible. like i said, i don't think clidd expected asteria to be the elim today from the outset, so it's an easy method of distancing when she eventually does flip. asteria was the second-last vote on the dragons wagon, and 2106 looks like LAMIST trying to cover her tracks. she wasn't on the T3 wagon, but that makes sense since she wasn't even in the thread for its entire duration. if she knows clidd is scum, then as scum herself she needs to start attaching her name to early scum pushes and eventual elims at

some

point, or she'll have nothing to fall back on when she isn't the NK tonight. it doesn't look good for asteria to just take the push on her from clidd without pushing back. again, it's an attempt at distancing, and perhaps asteria didn't truly believe clidd's wagon would go this far either.

since i think there's equity between you and asteria already, i wanted to call you specifically on the conjecture that clidd v asteria is tvs, though i also simply didn't see anyone else suggesting that idea. if my solve is correct, you have something to gain from making this point by putting further distance between asteria and clidd after one of them flips.

also:

Asteria said something very interesting.
I'll take a break to re-check something.

"That" something, to be specific.

@clidd can you tell us what this was? i feel like it never came up again

@asteria if you don't die tonight, who are you checking and why?

[InsidiousLemons]

I still strongly believe my case on clidd/salsa is enough to say clidd is lying about being a town gun PR. The way they were acting before he claimed did not match up to what was claimed.

then why does clidd claim PR?

the PR gun pool is already huge

salsa's behavior doesnt match up with a pr claim

why jump into the pool? I dont see the scum motivation

this is going to crinkle like aluminum foil, but as i've said, i think this

is

the scum motivation. listen to yourself: there is evidence to back up the idea that the claim is false (salsa's play doesn't match) that you are actively dismissing expressly

because

it makes the claim seem like a bad idea for scum. look at how many people have or have had your same mentality -- that clidd can't be scum because scum wouldn't leap into the claim pool like that. but my theory is that he

knows

that he can play town enough to leave doubt in people's minds, and he knows that if he succeeds he'll probably be better off for it simply because of the ballsiness of the timing of his claim.

[InsidiousLemons]

^ better off for having claimed PR rather than VT

[InsidiousLemons]

ngl im actually thinking lemons/clidd are t/t and this is the weakest town pr pool ive ever played in

what do you think is the likelihood of a koba/asteria scumteam judging solely by play and interactions

[InsidiousLemons]

likelihood was the wrong word, i'm not really interested in his probable you think it is -- i'm just wondering which elements of their play are indicative of a partnership to you, and which ones aren't

[InsidiousLemons]

*how probable

[InsidiousLemons]

this doesn't really follow for me. osuka is asking you what a Dk scumflip means about other players, and what your plan is for after the flip. and you don't seem to have one, or even to have thought about who the most likely partner is for Koba to have within the gun pool, which doesn't indicate to me that you really believe they're going to flip scum. correct me if i'm wrong, but it looks like the last time you proposed or agreed with a solve was back in 3435, before everyone had even claimed. i can believe that the questions at the bottom of 3938 were asked with the desire to formulate this plan, but by 4037 you've got all your answers and seem no closer to a solution.

Incorrect. Osuka was talking about Dk being a worse lim on information.
I have said that I don't want a DK lim today so "who is scum after" doesn't seem to be a fitting question here?
I don't think you understand the point of my posts? It's not to say this has the be the scum team, it's to help me go by tomorrow.

If you or Clidd flip town or scum today then I have something to go by.

I'm not sure if there's a language barrier here but I don't understand your point here?

english is indeed my first language, if that's what you mean. I don't disagree that we keep seeming to have trouble understanding each other and i'm honestly not sure why. let's break down what i'm trying to say and see where the misunderstanding lies.

osuka is saying that dk gives us less information tomorrow than any other lim, which is true. he then asks you how you got to this point in your thought process -- the point where you say that Dk is the best lim despite giving us the least information. you respond by saying that you're only focused on finding scum, and that today, you only want to stick to within the PR pool. this is the part of your post osuka was responding to:

As a whole Dk feels like the right option here as they are linked 3 of 4 to be scum.

this seemed pretty decisively like you

do

want a Dk lim today, which is what my line of questioning is based off of. you say at the top of that same post that you think the scum PRs are me and asteria, but i read the post as a train of thought and assumed that the conclusion you had come to was that Dk was the best elim. i figured the reason you weren't voting them was simply because you didn't see enough desire for a lim to get a wagon going yet. then you said you were "purely talking about flipping scum", which solidified this idea. what did you actually mean by "Dk feels like the right option here"? i think this is where we're getting confused.

[InsidiousLemons]

lolol

[InsidiousLemons]

@ the last 2 entire pages

[InsidiousLemons]

what the fuck is this game

[InsidiousLemons]

okay, thanks for explaining what you meant. definitely not trying to twist what you said, i just haven't been paying that much attention to you and pretty clearly stated why i thought your opinion had changed. now that i know it hasn't, my question has been answered

[InsidiousLemons]

i havent read shit why

AtE levels have been off the charts the past few pages

[InsidiousLemons]

don't know why that quoted yoops

[InsidiousLemons]

fr tho pooky - either you trust me today or you don't ever like from my pov lemon is blatant scum here and is just trying to patiently wait out and hope clidd is limmed. Please see that.

the scum partner/s are prob fake TRing clidd here so he cant get more votes

i don't know why you refuse to consider the scenario where we're both town. why is it so obvious that i can't be anything but scum?

[InsidiousLemons]

other questions

• what is your solve?
  
• who do you think are my scumpartner/s TRing clidd?
  
• why wouldn't they want more votes on him if they know he's town? are they just TRing him to keep their hands clean and hoping a town + scum!lemons wagon flips him without their help?

[InsidiousLemons]

i don't really think asteria is going to die tonight either way. even if she's town, we've done enough talking about how likely it is she'll get shot that scum won't touch it just to keep us confused. what i'm more interested in is forcing asteria to give us another check, which gives us more info to help solve with on the flip. between the two of them, although i like the chances of both, i think i am very slightly more confident in scum!asteria than scum!clidd.

if asteria is going to happen today, i won't stand in the way of an exec. but compared to clidd, i do believe she is a suboptimal choice. consider this my last push in clidd's direction.

@clidd you never responded to my 4041. @osuka, you say this is a misrep in 4125, but i don't think it is. 3940 is pretty unambiguous to me -- "Leaning scum on Osuka and Andres (one scum between them)." all the way back in 3729 we find clidd's first mention of you and andres as having one scum between you, and though he says it again in 3489 and others, i don't believe we've ever gotten an explanation for that read. 3753 provides some general reasons for andres, but nothing specific. i'm townreading both of you, so @clidd i am interested to hear what your reasons are.

@koba i would still really like to hear your response to my 4121 and 4122. if you're town like i think you are, and you keep refusing to update your read and ignoring me when i try to interact with you, you are kneecapping yourself by shutting your eyes to the uncomfortable possibility that i am just town who made some decisions you disagreed with. i need to know what's making you so dead-sure i can't be anything but scum.

[InsidiousLemons]

not sure why an asteria scum flip makes you not want to lim me considering i'm the one who's been pushing hardest to keep her alive an extra day.

but it's clear to me that nothing but asteria is really going to happen right now. let's get this over with.

[InsidiousLemons]

VOTE: asteria

[InsidiousLemons]

we are not instavoting in LyLo. clidd and i are confscum fypov, you and i are confscum from clidd's pov, and

you and clidd are confscum fmpov

. the 3 VTs are gonna have to decide which 2 of us are lying, and they're gonna need a whole lot more time to figure out that it's you and clidd than you want to let them have. we also need to figure out who amongst anya, osuka, and andres is scum. i think we need to at least

start

trying to do that now, even if we decide not to eliminate from the VT pool until after we get through the gun claims.

@VFP you are now the only confirmed townie. amongst the 3 possible VT-scum, who do you see as the most likely?

i'm hesitant to start the discussion today with trying to convince you all that i'm the one town PR in the claims, because it's just going to turn into a 3-way shouting match. though if you think opening that can of worms right away would be more productive then @VFP i'm willing to let you take the lead

[InsidiousLemons]

i understand. it's an insanely uphill battle from here but i truly believe we can pull it back. if nothing else it'll be fun to try and get ourselves out of this mess, so it's worth playing it out and trying to stay invested even if a loss feels inevitable. if we limmed randomly our odds are 2/3 on the gun claims and 1/3 on the townies.

also note that clidd has taken anya completely off the table

[InsidiousLemons]

ok i'm bored of this day mould is starting to develop so i'll sheep you clidd

VOTE: Asteria

then two posts later @vfp:

nah i think you're town just from your solving even if asteria's a wolf also i never thought her reaction testing early on looked like a drama class

"even if" lol

[InsidiousLemons]

obvious theatre is obvious ^

[InsidiousLemons]

i think i would personally rather go for clidd here, but VFP has said that a Dk lim would help convince him i'm town and while i'm not normally in the business of self-preservation, but, y'know, LyLo. if it'll help convince the leading voice of the town that i'm on their side, i'll take it. i think clidd's talk of which 1v1 is more favourable and for whom is a distraction tinged with woe-is-me AtE.

@osuka re: a vigless setup. this is a crazy set of circumstances, but consider this from my pov. the only options here are 1) we have a mafia doctor and no vig = scum!Dk and scum!clidd, or we have 3 unarmed mafia = town!Dk and scum!clidd. atp i am a bit fed up and willing to blame at least part of our floundering so far on the setup itself. i don't know whether i could believe i'm town in your shoes, but you seem to have been in that mindset so far and i would urge you not to discount that simply based on the abject absurdity of the mechanics at play here. i discarded my scumread of Dk on a mechanical basis and look what happened. as hard as i find it to believe that we're in a +mafdoc -vig universe, i find it even harder to believe that datisi would play such a cruel joke on us as giving us a gunsmith with no armed mafia. i'd rather lose based on the assumption that he wouldn't stoop to such levels than eat ourselves in a paranoid frenzy.

thoughts?

[InsidiousLemons]

while i'm not normally in the business of self-preservation,

but

y'know, LyLo.

[InsidiousLemons]

EBWOP (daddy)

[InsidiousLemons]

Please don’t do anything dumb. I also see that Koba has a vote down for Insidious. At this stage there’s a Scum between the two but what else is new. The good thing is that one choice clears two Scum.

i think i was thinking of this post when i said vfp would prefer a dk lim to help clear me. not sure if you ever actually said that vfp

i'm not really scared of a clidd quick/miselim, since it's pretty much unthinkable to me that he's town given the circumstances, but we do have lots of time and i'm a bit jumpy around endgame since this is my first game back. correct me if i'm wrong, but i don't think every living player has even posted yet today. there is more info to be gained here and i don't want a lim to happen while i'm at work.

if it helps you make connections in your head, you can consider clidd to be at a spiritual L-1 from my and osuka's combined soft-votes.

[InsidiousLemons]

this is, if i'm not mistaken, every vote count in which at least one of the potential fake PRs voted for at least one other:

Spoiler:

vote count 3.02

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [3]:

Anya, Andresvmb, InsidiousLemons

Anya [2]:

VFP, DkKoba

not voting [4]:

clidd, osuka, PookyTheMagicalBear, Asteria

vote count 3.03

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [4]:

Anya, Andresvmb, InsidiousLemons, DkKoba

Anya [1]:

VFP

not voting [4]:

clidd, osuka, PookyTheMagicalBear, Asteria

vote count 3.04

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [2]:

Anya, InsidiousLemons

Anya [1]:

VFP

InsidiousLemons [1]:

DkKoba

not voting [5]:

clidd, osuka, PookyTheMagicalBear, Asteria, Andresvmb

vote count 3.09

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [2]:

Anya, Andresvmb

Asteria [2]:

DkKoba, clidd

clidd [2]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria

vote count 3.10

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [2]:

Anya, Andresvmb

Asteria [2]:

DkKoba, clidd

clidd [2]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria

VFP [1]:

osuka

not voting [2]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, VFP

vote count 3.11

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

DkKoba [2]:

Anya, Andresvmb

clidd [2]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria

InsidiousLemons [2]:

DkKoba, clidd

VFP [1]:

osuka

not voting [2]:

PookyTheMagicalBear, VFP

vote count 3.12

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

clidd [4]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria, Andresvmb, VFP

InsidiousLemons [3]:

DkKoba, clidd, PookyTheMagicalBear

DkKoba [1]:

Anya

VFP [1]:

osuka

not voting [0]:

vote count 3.13

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

InsidiousLemons [3]:

DkKoba, clidd, VFP

clidd [3]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria, Andresvmb

DkKoba [1]:

Anya

VFP [1]:

osuka

not voting [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

vote count 3.14

with 9 votes in play, it takes 5 to make a decision. day 3 ends in (expired on 2021-05-07 10:00:00).

execution

clidd [3]:

InsidiousLemons, Asteria, Andresvmb

InsidiousLemons [2]:

DkKoba, VFP

DkKoba [1]:

Anya

VFP [1]:

osuka

Asteria [1]:

clidd

not voting [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

vote count 3.final

with 9 votes in play, it took 5 to make a decision. day 3 ended.

execution

Asteria [5]:

clidd, DkKoba, VFP, Anya, InsidiousLemons

[HAMMER]

clidd [2]:

Asteria, Andresvmb

VFP [1]:

osuka

not voting [1]:

PookyTheMagicalBear

tallying all of these up, we get:

DkKoba votes for:

- clidd in 0 VCs
- InsidiousLemons in 5 VCs

clidd votes for:

- InsidiousLemons in 2 VCs
- DkKoba in 0 VCs

InsidiousLemons votes for:

- clidd in 6 VCs
- DkKoba in 3 VCs

while these totals don't tell us a ton by themselves, clidd and Dk never vote each other, and it's worth noting that Dk doesn't take the opportunity to hammer clidd after 3.12, instead dropping in to derail the wagon in 4059.

what's most revealing to me is that in the space of 100 posts, from 3.13 to 3.final, clidd and Dk go from both voting me to both voting Asteria. Dk tries for the push on me, then clidd switches tracks to asteria after realizing it won't work, and Dk sheeps after some modest back-and-forth for plausible deniability. they hide their synchronized voting well enough with a bit of theatre to not get immediately called out, but behind the scenes this is absolutely what's going on.

@clidd hey thanks scumbuddy! oops, did i say that out loud?

you and koba are confscum in the universe where there are 2 scum in the gun pool. given that it is

pretty much unthinkable to me

that we

aren't

in that universe right now, it doesn't take much inference to figure out that there's no logical inconsistency here. but nice attempt at tying yourself to me when you flip red.

[InsidiousLemons]

i'll leave room for the VTs now. it's much slower at work than i'd expected, so i could probably keep posting, but i agree that i don't think our voices are going to be as resonant with the VT pool as their own thoughts and discussion will be.

[InsidiousLemons]

i made repeated attempts to engage with koba, none of which ever received anything more than a refusal to cooperate in response, if they got a response at all. when you realize you're being ignored, at a certain point you stop wasting your breath.

[InsidiousLemons]

how much more does a goon!Dk flip do to convince you that we're in the 3 PR-scum universe? had you been pegging her for a traitor/doc before?

[InsidiousLemons]

maybe they're all traitors and using morse code to communicate with each other

if Dk does indeed flip goon i think this strongly suggests anya is clear. scum!anya in that case is fine with us just blowing through the entire PR pool, and since VFP was the one to initially suggest it, all she would have to do is sheep 2 win.

[InsidiousLemons]

Dk has to return as has a gun.

Otherwise the gunsmith is killed. Andante coming in and saying that the claimed Vig doesn't have a gun doesn't go down too well.

i agree with this logic but i would counter that the first point isn't necessarily true -- it ignores the possibility of traitor!koba. i think that possibility is more plausible than you do. if they are traitor then scum don't have (as much of) a motive to kill the gunsmith N1 because they don't know koba is one of them. it's a risky move from a non-gunned koba to claim PR knowing that they are a likely night check target, but they were locked into the claim before they were informed there was a gunsmith. even if you believe their gs softclaim was made with the knowledge that the claim was taken, i wouldn't put a night check gambit past koba.

[InsidiousLemons]

andres really indulging with this 7 hour meal

maybe he got stuck in the drive thru

[InsidiousLemons]

if you think clidd is most likely to be scum then why oh why are you voting me when by your own admission it's more likely to lose us the game than a clidd vote is?

my current thoughts are that while clidd and koba are both confirmed to be scum (in this universe @clidd ), a koba flip will give you guys the most information about the dynamics of the scumteam. if you want me to vote then i will:

,VOTE: Koba

i'm comfortable with this elim today. as you and i both said, andres, if there's another town in the gun pool then the game is lost. and i'd rather lose that way than by speculation about some crazy gun-count fuckery.

now the question is -- when koba doesn't get hammered here, do you think it's more likely that she's town being voted by an exactly insidious + clidd + anya scumteam, or good old fashioned scum?

[InsidiousLemons]

If Koba is Scum, they definitely vote for the 1 Town amongst the guns. What’s the one weird scenario where this is not happening - If Koba is Scum and Insidious is Traitor or something right, and Insidious knows Koba is Scum so doesn’t want to vote there, but nobody can backtrack now because the vote has been out for too long?

either:

1) this fringe scenario is the reality of the situation = scum!koba and scum!lemons, or
2) scum!koba is voting town!lemons, or
3) koba is the one town in the gun pool

genuinely, based on your rereading -- which of these scenarios do you think is most likely?

[InsidiousLemons]

.now the question is -- when koba doesn't get hammered here, do you think it's more likely that she's town being voted by an exactly insidious + clidd + anya scumteam, or good old fashioned scum?

it occurs to me that this is actually a false dichotomy. fypov, there is a third scenario where koba could be scum getting bussed, which does make it more believable that she wouldn't get hammered here. this would still necessitate either a koba + clidd + anya OR a koba + lemons + anya scumteam though, unless you believe there is some number of scum in the gun pool other than 2.

[InsidiousLemons]

when koba doesn't get hammered here, do you think it's more likely that

they're

town being voted by an exactly insidious + clidd + anya scumteam, or good old fashioned scum?

EBWOP for pronoun correction

sorry @koba i will slow down n pay more attention. thanks for your patience

[InsidiousLemons]

i know they're scum though. they aren't going to get quickhammered because no one wins immediately if they die. it's not a musing it's a statement of fact

good luck to you and your vote. i'll skim through your iso and see what i can see i guess. though yes, your thought process has felt pretty convincingly town to me so far so you're not high on my VT-scum likelihood list

[InsidiousLemons]

i think the biggest thing is that the gunsmith COULD be a role that helps town win by confirming PR claims, but there's no way for town to find out that only town is armed until it's too late.

also a lil silly that mafia were also informed of the number of guns in the game lol

i'm not that mad but i do wonder how town wins this setup

though again i haven't been on the site in several years so setup/balance isn't my forte. i am very interested to see the setup dkscussion. thanks for an exciting first game back datisi and fellow players!

[InsidiousLemons]

this 2 mafia docs thing needs to die. the first page of this thread confirms that there is

"a mafia doctor"

. not at least one mafia doctor, not some number of mafia doctors, "a". one. anything else would be tantamount to the mod lying about the setup.

datisi i saw your post about this in the mod thread and i. yeah you're right

im just disappointed i really thought the maximum possible troll factor would be 1 doc 2 traitors

@pooky i was really trying lol

i made a fair few mistakes but i was trying so hard

[InsidiousLemons]

if osuka is scum here he is a force to be reckoned with and kinda has this game on lock so far.

ell oh ell

just to clarify i really don't think the scum victory was solely attributable to the setup, y'all did play very well

good job koba u handled the vig claim and ensuing fake frustration masterfully

[InsidiousLemons]

it's certainly thought-provoking, and there were definitely points where i was leaning towards "fuck the mechanics we should only be focusing on dayplay." town does hage a lot of firepower, but with such a mountain of WIFOM possibilities to sort through (# of unarmed scum, trustworthiness of a vig claim, etc) it feels a bit like giving a blind toddler a shotgun. i do think if we had caught one scum early we'd have been in a much better, maybe even town-favour position. town just needed that one flip to start peeling away the edges and we never got it. if nothing else this has definitely taught me that play-based voting reigns supreme on this godless website of lies and deception

@osuka fuck you you pinged me multiple times but i ignored it because the moments where you had me, you really had me

[InsidiousLemons]

hah that's funny

what did i do to ping you? i can tell you i didnt feel threatened at any point in time during this game, like my head was never on the chopping block

you overall went softer on me than other players and let mistakes slide without mention that i felt you wouldn't have if you weren't sure i was town. it read to me like you didn't want to put yourself up against me not because you strongly townread me, but because you felt there were easier pushes to make. the buddying paid off though because i really wanted you to be town

3082 was a pretty blatant misrep

too lazy to skim your entire iso but there were just a few things over the course of the game that made my gut go "hm, a crack in the facade" but i ignored that because gut with little evidence does not a good case make. and also i felt like we were kind of fucked if you were scum lol

at least i know my gut reads are okay sometimes

[InsidiousLemons]

I dont think anyone can blame the setup for limming Asteria->Lemons back to back over me

the only reason you even lived was because we didnt think the town could possibly be so underpowered as to not have a vig lol.

if not for the setup making a non-vigged town completely unfathomable to me until it was clear there was no other option, you would've flipped the day you claimed

[InsidiousLemons]

the claim gambit was a clever one, i'll give you that, but even you have to admit it wouldn't have paid off if not for the setup

[InsidiousLemons]

we had a secret masons pt

jk its funny you say that because i couldn't get a bead on anya for basically the entire game

its part of what made VFP saying she seemed like "one of the easier players to read" stand out so much to me

[InsidiousLemons]

and nah andres you're not to blame i just think consensus and attention was unfortunately not on your side for most of the game. i could say we should've paid more heed to your posts but speaking for myself i didn't ignore your posts, i just considered them and then decided (incorrectly) that there were better options. if it eases your pain, i would've gone with town!andres over town!osuka in a gth situation

[InsidiousLemons]

it wasnt even a gambit

making three mafia doctors means there shouldnt be a vig

We werent multitasking

i feel like "we could only protect 2 of our members every night, not 3" is a bit of a cop out

p-edit ^