Micro 1010: Divide and Conquer: Round 2 - Game Over!

[Hopkirk]

I finally went over this, and I'm baffled that anyone could consider it a good case.

First of all, Hopkirk is comparing replacement catchup walls to a game with literally half the content (in the case of the shorter replacement wall) both in number of phases and in number of pages to content from the beginning of a game that's running exceptionally slowly.

Secondly, this is the super content rich post from a few days in referenced in the second half of the case:

Spoiler:

My scumreads are Whemestar, Ivyeo and Clasko.

I explained my reasoning for Whemestar earlier.

Ivyeo does not seem to be contributing much to the conversation, and what they are sending is very wishy-washy. Their messages so far have been a vote, a quick unvote, and then this one:

Whilst I do see the scummyness in Wheme's posts, I'm not sure we want to cut Day 1 discussion to right here.

They just seem like they are being overly cautious, which I feel is more likely with a scum then a town.



Clasko hardly said anything until someone questioned it, then he town-read whemestar (my biggest scum vibes) because

their argument feels cyclical and non-scripted = less chance to be W v. W

And I don't understand the logic. Why would deducing that they are not BOTH scum automatically mean that neither one is?



I am town reading Demainer using Clasko's logic. It does not seem like a scum v scum conversation, and I think that whemestar is the more likely scum of the pair.

Compared to:

Spoiler:

What other substance am I supposed to have already put into the thread?

Imo, the first order of business was figuring out which neighborhood we are going to be voting in today, so that is the conversation I have been engaging with the most so far. At this point, I think I am pretty settled on saying that we should vote from the 6p neighborhood.


At this point, I am really waiting for more content from Dunnstral, Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, and marcistar before I can really get started with my new goal of figuring out who we should vote for today.

The only read I actually have so far is a town read on Marci, because I think scum!marci would have played into my banter to attempt to pocket me, but no pocket attempt was made.

I think that the mafia put Norwee+N_M in the 3 person group because they knew it would lead to conflict, and put a lot of noise in the thread. And that strategy appears to be paying off, because they are doing exactly that. But that still leaves the question of whether you did it, and the 2 town players are falling for it, or if one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other.

I am a little surprised at the amount of posts coming form Not_Mafia, in my expereince with him he has been a lot more sparse. In our last game he made 63 posts spread out over 30 days, and then in this game he is at 29 posts in like 6 hours, and that was also a game that had both Norwee and Not_Mafia in it...

So I am a bit suspicious that this is that "one of them did it as scum, and is egging on the other"

So of the three of you, I think it might actually be Not_Mafia... but he is such a hard person to read, by design, and it seems like his reputation has resulted in him almost having a site wide immunity from Day 1 eliminations.

So I am kind of glad we are not voting in the 3 player neighborhood today.

What other substance am I supposed to have already put into the thread?

Imo, the first order of business was figuring out which neighborhood we are going to be voting in today, so that is the conversation I have been engaging with the most so far. At this point, I think I am pretty settled on saying that we should vote from the 6p neighborhood.


At this point, I am really waiting for more content from Dunnstral, Vanderscamp, Hopkirk, and marcistar before I can really get started with my new goal of figuring out who we should vote for today.

The only read I actually have so far is a town read on Marci,

because I think scum!marci would have played into my banter to attempt to pocket me

, but no pocket attempt was made.

Marci is literally successfully pocketing you...

I think the "no pocket attempt was made" might have oversold my point, and caused you to overlook my true position in bold. I did not mean to say that just anyone would have behaved that way. Specifically, I think scum!marci would have played into the banter.

I am walking into this game on the heels of a game where Marci was scum. In that game, her first couple of posts leaned pretty heavily into bantering back and forth between the player she had played with before. And it worked, that player gave her a town read Day 1. So when I tried to put banter in place with her this game, and she met that banter with suspicion, both here and in the Neighborhood thread, it feels like the opposite of how she reacted in the last game (where she was scum).

So I am concluding that the difference was that in that game, she already knew the other person alignment, and her goal was pocketing the player she played with before, and in this game, her goal is to figure out the alignment of the player she played with before.

From literally the day the thread opened.

Hopkirk's meta case is clearly disingenuous bullshit.

from me

i did note that he didn't express any difference between joining those and starting off in this game. obviously there's going to be a pronounced difference there, but i think it would have been reasonable to mention that just now when i asked about whether his play was difference.

this was about half the text of the post you're referring to. the text in read does not feel like a genuine/good faith reading of that so much as ignoring it to try and make it sound like i'm saying something i'm not.

this game feels markedly different at the start here where Luke doesn't seem to have a clear direction or any scumreads

since you didn't bother quoting the actual problem i had. 376 DOES NOT MENTION THE WORD ANALYSIS. it's about

lack of direction/scumreads

compared to the first. you can tell because that's the words i used when i was talking about it. have a look back to 376 and please explain how i'm talking about lack of analysis in that post. the three posts you quoted literally demonstrate my point. there's no clear scumreads there/it feels like they haven't started looking. don't try and put words in my mouth that drastically alter the meaning of what i'm saying

also it's not a case btw. i'm below 50% on Luke!scum. i don't like the way you're framing this as it feels divisive. Bingle!scum can easily be with town!luke or scum!luke

[Hopkirk]

Can't tell if scum, or town with a

bad case of OMGUS

reads

VOTE: Hopkirk

can you see the irony in this when i start sussing you and Bingle/you respond with votes? you haven't acknowledged/responded to me on any of that and this feels like a chainsaw defense from Bingle right now

I did not suspect you immediately after you made a case against me. I responded to your case as best as I could. I took the suspicion in good faith, and tried to imagine why I would feel different in this game compared to my other completed game where I started Day 1. I did not even go back and look at that game,

I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

Then Bingle came in with 402 and when he showed the post that you were refering to as my post with reads / reasoning, and I realized that your case was in bad faith.

Like, in that game, I had 4 posts by the end of the 3rd day. In this game I had 41 by the end of the 3rd day. So if you are claiming that that game I was doing more to move the game forward, I no longer think you are making your case in good faith.

you've literally accepted the differences are major due to you subbing in.

.

here's a new problem

I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

inherently contradicts the point that this game has been very different due to being here in the start that you mentioned in 383. do you see how both of these things can't be true? either you were aware of a difference after i pointed it out OR you 'assumed i had a decent reason to think they were different' but weren't aware of a difference yourself at the time

taking my questioning in good faith requires you to read it and look at the things i'm quoting, otherwise you're not actually engaging with it
you had notably more scumreads. here you don't+/didn't feel like you had reads. do you disagree with this?
please explain which bits of my posts you specifically disagree with, what's in bad faith, and look at the post i made a few minutes back highlighting what i don'tthink you've engaged with

[Hopkirk]

also i've raised a lot of questions about bingle's selective rephrasing and weird logical leaps there that i'd be interested for you to weigh in on if you were currently nullreading/POE reading bingle then that seems like a decent place to get a more AI read from

[Lukewarm]

in relation to the point on you not commenting on playing differently, these feel notably inconsistent. 383 is the kind of thing i was asking for in 356, but you responded with 'i can't see any differences' instead of more reasonable explanations as you provided in 383. if 383 had been in place of 358 then some of my initial issues would have been mitigated. it feels less convincing post facto

I can't read your mind? I did not know what made you think they were different, therefore I did not know how to respond. So far I have only played a handful of games, and overall feel like I am apporaching them with the same general mindset. So until you described differences, I didn't really know they were there.

Turns out I have gotten more relaxed the more games I have played. Also turns out I have become less confident in pushing scum reads - Which, if you read all 3 of my completed games at this point you will see that I very confidently tunneled on townies. In every one.

Spoiler:

My first game, I tunneled Deaminer and fferyllt (both town), and lost that game. In the other game you quoted, I tunneled Yessiree (was town) until literally the last page of the game, but a confirmed town said he did not think it was him, so I followed their lead and switched. In my game with Marci/Norwee/N_M I tunneled Carboi (was town), but I was not sure enough in myself anymore, so I followed the vote of the other player, Meuh

So yeah, I will admit that I probably came into this game a lot less confident in my ability to scum read players.

But I am not sitting here actively examining how I am playing every game. I did not realize that those two things were changing until they were pointed out to me.

[Hopkirk]

as a yes or not question because i can't tell which you're saying: would you consider 'i subbed into two of those games much later on so this game has been a different experience' to count as 'playing differently'

[Hopkirk]

'i play differently when the context is different' is an incredibly reasonable statement. it feels really weird that being in this one from the start vs being in 2/3 of the others from much later didn't register as different. especially with the defensiveness of 'i can't read your mind' when i'm commenting on it. how come that didn't register, what kind of thing did you

think

i meant in terms of difference if, with your lack of psychic ability, assumed i was asking about?

[Hopkirk]

also full disclosure i uh... asked whether you thought you were playing differently before looking back through your games. it's a pretty fun question to ask people

[Lukewarm]

Can't tell if scum, or town with a

bad case of OMGUS

reads

VOTE: Hopkirk

can you see the irony in this when i start sussing you and Bingle/you respond with votes? you haven't acknowledged/responded to me on any of that and this feels like a chainsaw defense from Bingle right now

I did not suspect you immediately after you made a case against me. I responded to your case as best as I could. I took the suspicion in good faith, and tried to imagine why I would feel different in this game compared to my other completed game where I started Day 1. I did not even go back and look at that game,

I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

Then Bingle came in with 402 and when he showed the post that you were refering to as my post with reads / reasoning, and I realized that your case was in bad faith.

Like, in that game, I had 4 posts by the end of the 3rd day. In this game I had 41 by the end of the 3rd day. So if you are claiming that that game I was doing more to move the game forward, I no longer think you are making your case in good faith.

you've literally accepted the differences are major due to you subbing in.

.

here's a new problem

I just assumed you had a decent reason to think they were different.

inherently contradicts the point that this game has been very different due to being here in the start that you mentioned in 383. do you see how both of these things can't be true? either you were aware of a difference after i pointed it out OR you 'assumed i had a decent reason to think they were different' but weren't aware of a difference yourself at the time

taking my questioning in good faith requires you to read it and look at the things i'm quoting, otherwise you're not actually engaging with it
you had notably more scumreads. here you don't+/didn't feel like you had reads. do you disagree with this?
please explain which bits of my posts you specifically disagree with, what's in bad faith, and look at the post i made a few minutes back highlighting what i don't think you've engaged with

The bad faith argument I thought came from the first game, NOT the replace in games. I did feel like the replace in games were different, but those were obviously from being replaced in, and I think self explanatory.

But now I think that your argument about my first ever game was wack. (it was the only one you did not actually quote too, which is a bit suspicious given 380.) But also, you tried to claim that I was more present and making better content in that game. And I feel like that is a bad faith argument to make.

In that other game, in 3 days, I made 4 posts. Where I called 1 person out for an, I think decent reason, and where I accused someone of being wishy washy.

In this game, in 3 days, I made 42 posts. I made a strong TR case. I hunted through the backlogs of the prior game to try and figure out if a 6P or a 3P vote was good. I called out Not_Mafia for feeling different from what I am used to, and I called out Norwee for voting Marci and N_M for agreeing with him.

So if you are claiming that I approached that game with more effort / reads / content, then you are lying. You're argument was made in bad faith. I think that it is CLEAR that I am doing more to work towards a win this game, then I was in that game.

[Lukewarm]

as a yes or not question because i can't tell which you're saying: would you consider 'i subbed into two of those games much later on so this game has been a different experience' to count as 'playing differently'

No. Because I don't think it makes sense to compare my sub in games to my Day 1 play in that other game. I feel like I was playing Day 3 of my very first game about the same way as I was playing Day 2/3 of my sub in games.

[Lukewarm]

So if you are claiming that I approached that game with more effort / reads / content, then you are lying. You're argument was made in bad faith. I think that it is CLEAR that I am doing more to work towards a win this game, then I was in that game.

Like I would be more inclined to think you were making a good faith argument if you said the opposite. Like you thought I was scum because I was trying harder this game. But that is not the argument you are making. You are saying that I was doing more to find reads in that game compared to this one.

But I think I am done debating over my old games. Continuing to hunt back through multiple games to see what you are trying to talk about is more effort then I am willing to put into a defense here.

If that means I get voted out, that means I get voted out.

[marcistar]

Not_Mafia seems way different then he has in any other game I have played in with him + post 250 makes no sense imo. You feel completely different this game then you did in the last.

I agree that not_mafia feels weird, but not exactly for the reasoning of him mentioning im weird based on my past behavior? Not_mafia and I have played a few games together where i've been town in those, so I felt like those comments are justified.. so that specifically wasn't what felt off about him.

Norwee on the other hand, it feels like maybe he tried to pocket me? Like go through his iso and search for every time he mentions me. Its agree with me, thank me, town read me, town read me harder, defend me from other people. Then I pointed out he did something suspicious, and suddenly I am his number 1 vote.

Can you please bring examples of this? When I was reading through him earlier, it didn't really feel like this to me.

I honestly don't know which of them is the scum, but if I suspect both of them, then I guess that means Bingle is probably town?

So its more like a process of elimination? I don't think it's good for that to be the reason why you trust someone... because like he could always be playing you like a violin.

So if you are claiming that I approached that game with more effort / reads / content, then you are lying. You're argument was made in bad faith. I think that it is CLEAR that I am doing more to work towards a win this game, then I was in that game.

TBH, im getting more confused on you luke but at least now im pretty sure hopkirks town!!

[Lukewarm]

UNVOTE:

Marci is my strongest TR, and she is telling me I am stuck on this. Gonna wait a bit, and reread.

[Lukewarm]

Norwee on the other hand, it feels like maybe he tried to pocket me? Like go through his iso and search for every time he mentions me. Its agree with me, thank me, town read me, town read me harder, defend me from other people. Then I pointed out he did something suspicious, and suddenly I am his number 1 vote.

Can you please bring examples of this? When I was reading through him earlier, it didn't really feel like this to me.

Easiest way to see it would be to, control+f, looked for every time he said "luke". I did this at first to try and follow why he went from townreading me to listing me as his top scum read, and it stood out.

[Lukewarm]

Spoiler:

Precisely Lukewarm.

Thank you Lukewarm.

I feel like Lukewarm is town, but i’m also hesitant to townread because i don’t know how good they are as scum.

Lukewarm how good would you rank your own scum game?

Going through ISO's with GL conf!town, soul townread on Lukewarm, and Bingle putting paranoia on Hopkirk we're left with this in a Bingle!scum world.
Bingle -> {Dunnstral}{Marcistar}{Vanderscamp}
Most emphasis on Marcistar and Vanderscamp i think.

Oh yeah, Lukewarm got scumread for some reason by multiple people and i never understood the meaning behind it.

Like these are all the times he talked about me in a row

[marcistar]

Easiest way to see it would be to, control+f, looked for every time he said "luke". I did this at first to try and follow why he went from townreading me to listing me as his top scum read, and it stood out.

imma do this but if its that weird trick that closes the browser im unfriending

[marcistar]

Spoiler:

Precisely Lukewarm.

Thank you Lukewarm.

I feel like Lukewarm is town, but i’m also hesitant to townread because i don’t know how good they are as scum.

Lukewarm how good would you rank your own scum game?

Going through ISO's with GL conf!town, soul townread on Lukewarm, and Bingle putting paranoia on Hopkirk we're left with this in a Bingle!scum world.
Bingle -> {Dunnstral}{Marcistar}{Vanderscamp}
Most emphasis on Marcistar and Vanderscamp i think.

Oh yeah, Lukewarm got scumread for some reason by multiple people and i never understood the meaning behind it.

Like these are all the times he talked about me in a row

it doesnt really stand out imo it feels natural

[marcistar]

if his goal was to pocket you, i feel like 173 177 doesn't do that job imo. it feels like he's trying to solve you.

[Lukewarm]

I take it back. I am not going to reread. Just trust marci on it.

Here is my best summary of my play experience.

Frist game, Newbie 2060: Pretty bad. Slow rolling content because I did not know the proper cadence, and basically every SE in the chat was lurking. Until we got over half way through Day 1, and I was like "wait? at this rate we will never reach an elimination" and started pushing for the thread to start moving. Later on fferyllt replaced in, and the tempo of the game like quadrupled. Sadly, I threw that game because I tunneled her as scum. Like I thought her slot was scum before she replaced in, so I was tunneled on seeing ulterior motives from everything she posted.

Second Game, Open 809: Coming off the heels of the first game, I came in at a much higher tempo / taking it much more seriously. But I think I took it too seriously, because no one else was so serious at the start of Day 1, and being more serious then everyone else was unfun. Decided to try and be a bit more laid back. - Later replaced out of the game due to conflict with another player.

Third Game, Open 808: Replaced in, tried to imitate how fferyllt played when she first replaced in, came in strong with catchup posts and reads. Tunneled really hard on Yessiree. For multiple days. Managed to win anyways because I listened to a Tracker-Confirmed town instead of my own reads. Enjoyed skipping Day 1

Fourth Game, Newbie 2061: Replaced in, still trying to imitate fferyllt because she did an amazing job when she replaced in. Strong catchup posts / read list. Strong scum read Pear, was townie. Strong scum read Catboi, was townie.

This game:

And I honestly feel like my play this game has been the natural progression of me playing on this site. I was more laid back, chatting more freely with players that I have played with before just because like, this isn't my first game anymore? Also I started the game with the plan to low-key tested Marci to see how she would react to me buddying up to her, because I saw how she reacted as scum when Meuh buddied up to her, and wanted to see if she would respond the same way. Also though, I am probably less confident in my scum reads because I have been wrong every time in every game I have played in, so I was more build Townreads first, because those have not been terrible in my past games. But like, I was not consciously doing that. I was just just trying to win and have a good time, and that is how I have approached every game I have been in ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I have no more energy to defend myself today, so feel free to send me off to the chopping block if this still seems inadequate. I am probably not going to check back on this game until tomorrow (irl tomorrow, not like "I'm gone til game Day 2)

[Bingle]

Bingle do you think you'd push Hopkirk as an mislim if you were scum under most normal circumstances or would you rather buddy them?

I don't go into most games looking for a specific mislim, but he's definitely not the kind of player I'd avoid pushing. I only really avoid pushing people like Nancy who make the game unfun when you push them.

[Hopkirk]

That's pretty insulting. I get mad when people scumread me and I'm taking it as basically a personal attack that you're not acknowledging the level of rage I experience at bad sus on me. It makes me rage down to the depths of my heart.

[Bingle]

the problem with this logic is that the most likely reason for me to make it as either alignment is the same
town - i thought it was funny
scum - i thought it was funny (strategic shading being comparatively ridiculously unlikely)

you've clearly started with assuming that i'm scum here given you're ignoring both the most likely motivation and the NAI nature of it to focus on a scum motivation. you're saying it *could* have come from some without drawing the link to why that means me saying it is scum & your apparent confidence makes it sound like you haven't even considered weighing up (town joking) vs (scum joking + scum positioning)

i don't think see how you believe that i make that post thinking the bolded outcomes are reasonably advanced by the post.
- 'So that Norway can tactically break his meta' - no reason to bring it up at the start
- 'setting up a norway lethal' - we're voting in the 6p + ignores the fact that Norway does effort harder as town. like this logic is notably bad.

there's no way that 'Hopkirk made the post to set up a future Norway misexile when Norway is low wim' would be more likely than it being a throwaway comment. especially when apart from anything else,

if i think town norway is low wim then why does scum!hop try and set up a lethal that only goes through if norway isn't low wim?

that especially really doesn't follow through, and you're overly focused on a conclusion that you seem to have started with

The premise here is that insulting someone for the sake of a joke when you have a clear motivation that wasn't "It's a joke!" is more likely. This ignores the whole: there's a motivation present that isn't NAI.

Also, in a world where Norwee is town, the scumteam contains N_M and intentionally put N_M in a hood with Norwee. Given that Norwee apparently hates N_M and you would know that, how would you assuming Norwee would be low WIM because of it be any sort of stretch?

[Bingle]

i did note that he didn't express any difference between joining those and starting off in this game. obviously there's going to be a pronounced difference there, but i think it would have been reasonable to mention that just now when i asked about whether his play was difference.

Acknowledging that the reason is shit doesn't somehow make the reason not shit.

How the fuck are 118, 120, and 136 showing less of a direction or scumreads? He's literally calling for more content, poking two people (N_M and Norwee) for strange behavior and saying he thinks they might be scum for it, and explaining a townread.

[Bingle]

I also think it's rather fun that Hopkirk is accusing me of scumreading him as a chainsaw defense of Luke when A) my scumread of him predates his Luke case and B) I specifically said that the push felt like a distraction from my push on him.

[Bingle]

since you didn't bother quoting the actual problem i had. 376 DOES NOT MENTION THE WORD ANALYSIS. it's about lack of direction/scumreads compared to the first. you can tell because that's the words i used when i was talking about it. have a look back to 376 and please explain how i'm talking about lack of analysis in that post. the three posts you quoted literally demonstrate my point. there's no clear scumreads there/it feels like they haven't started looking. don't try and put words in my mouth that drastically alter the meaning of what i'm saying

It's really cool that 376 doesn't mention analysis. You know what else doesn't mention analysis? 402. It's kinda like you made that whole bit about me putting words into your mouth up by putting words in my mouth, when literally the whole point of 402 was showing the posts you were comparing side by side because you were making shit up in the first place.

[Dunnstral]

I reread Vanderscamp, not feeling like voting there

I don't want to vote for Marci or Guiltylion either

So for me it's Luke or hopkirk in the 6

VOTE: Hopkirk