Open 811 - Lovers and Losers (New Game+) [Game Over]

[Klick]

I began our lovers chat with a riveting conversation with T-Bone about the achievement goal theory of motivation. I wasn't expecting much other than '???' in response, but to my surprise, he responded with meaningful consideration of my points and proposed an alternative to the ideas I set forth in my initial post. I told him this caught me off guard and that if he was actually knowledgeable about the subject, he was probably going to realise that I only like 30% knew what I was talking about. Then he admitted that he had just googled 'achievement motivation theory' and used that to respond to me, and that he wasn't interested in talking about that anymore. Could've fooled me tbh! Then I said I thought we'd have an easy enough time showing that we're town, and the true challenge here would be solving between the three VTs. And before we got further in our chat the game started.

[Klick]

Also well done Vex for doing your job obvtowning last go, do it again pls.

[Klick]

I am way too ill to process the nonsense I just read for most of this

T-Bone where are the scum

[Klick]

This is a stark contrast to your type of content from last game Llama
My gut reads that as alignment-indicative. Should it?

[Klick]

I've only just realised how difficult this game is for town. At first I thought this was pretty townsided because it's two sets of 2v1s and scum's wincon was to survive to the end of one of them. But actually, if town makes one mistake here, it's already MyLo/LyLo the next day. Scum definitely have the advantage in terms of their level of influence just due to sheer numbers.

To offset this, we could potentially agree to something where the person eliminated decides who is eliminated after them? The odds of one townie/town lover pair being correct in their 50/50 are higher than the odds of successfully voting one of that 50/50 as a group in XLo.

Thoughts?

[Klick]

Reading more in-depth, as of Page 5 I'm leaning Kerset-Bingle as scum over RM-Ana. RM feels basically the same as last game, free with his thoughts, not a clear agenda other than solving. Ana isn't doing much other than complaining about RM as a partner and fawning over Kerset, and I almost feel as though she'd feel more of a... I guess, 'responsibility' to carry RM as a scum buddy than she would if they were town together? Something about Ana/RM being 2/3 of her mafia team instead of 2/6 of the town. I think her resignation is more likely to come from the former than the latter.
Meanwhile so far Kerset is doing literally nothing to advance the game and a quick ISO shows that that doesn't change.

[Klick]

VOTE: Kerset

[Klick]

btw the fact that someone flipped town doesn't make them smarter and they are as uninformed as before the flip, so the idea of vengeful is silly

The reason you'd do this isn't because you think they're smarter, it's because 1 Town player deciding the vote is better than 4-5 Town and 3 Scum deciding the vote via majority.

[Klick]

Also I am currently Very Ill. I will weigh in where/when I feel capable but don't expect a ton. If anyone wants to ask really specific directed questions I can probably vibe with that.

[Klick]

Also I am currently Very Ill. I will weigh in where/when I feel capable but don't expect a ton. If anyone wants to ask really specific directed questions I can probably vibe with that.

This is still where I'm at
If anyone who wants to shade me for being inactive *cough*Kerset*cough* would instead like to help me by pointing at specific things and asking about my thoughts on them, that'd be really helpful in terms of my ability to read this game

[Klick]

Until then, I'm still feeling vaguely negative about the Kerset/Bingle pair and vaguely positive about the RM/Ana pair.

[Klick]

You feel town to me this game Llama
I read your posts and I don't feel like you're trying to heavily control the state of the game
And I get the impression that you very much like to do that as scum?

Idk if that's the perfect way to describe what I'm seeing but tldr you're feeling towny to me and to some extent it's because you're seeming relatively chill

[Klick]

I think there's a slight advantage to voting in the lovers as you're left with more ACTUAL confirmed townies upon success, meaning more town influence over the vote. If we hit the scum lovers for example, all of a sudden we have four conftown that can control how we vote and one scum with a vote. That's a lot better than the alternative, having 2 conftown and 2 scum players influencing the vote.

Basically in terms of alignment they're equivalent, but in terms of game influence the lovers are more valuable.

[Klick]

I kind of want to give a BoP shot to Llama because I know from playing with him last game that he is highly competent and also by far the scariest player to play against if he is scum.

A BoP shot would neutralize his influence if he were scum while also giving him a solid chance to win the VT side if he were town - it's a move I really like to use when dealing with players of a high caliber in a small POE setting such as this.

Because here is the POV difference:

For Town!LLama, he knows he must get this shot correct between VV & Bambi Jay, because if he misses, he dies next and the town loses the game.

He must put maximum effort into his solve - to give the town the best odds of winning the game.

For Scum!Llama, he knows

it doesn't matter

what his solve is, he will die next elimination no matter which townie he pushes out for the first elim.

This creates a readable difference between what LlamaPuff does.

Yeah but I don't think Llama is scum

[Klick]

Then why is your answer to that voting him second instead of reading the other two?

[Klick]

I don't think Ana comes out with this play in her position as scum
right now her lover pair is positioned best and on paper this plan is sketchy af. Why come out with something like this and potentially ruin their spot?

[Klick]

I don't think Ana comes out with this play in her position as scum
right now her lover pair is positioned best and on paper this plan is sketchy af. Why come out with something like this and potentially ruin their spot?

?

You realize you suggested basically the same plan but generalized a while back, right? Why is it suddenly sketchy as fuck?

The plan I suggested: vote someone we think is scum and if we're wrong, they choose who goes after them
The plan Ana suggested: vote who Llama thinks is scum (Llama currently suspects Vex) and then vote Llama if he's wrong

One of these is a general method of successfully eliminating scum even if we miss the first time
The other is just suggesting we vote Vex and Llama

The generalisation is important

I think there's a slight advantage to voting in the lovers as you're left with more ACTUAL confirmed townies upon success, meaning more town influence over the vote. If we hit the scum lovers for example, all of a sudden we have four conftown that can control how we vote and one scum with a vote. That's a lot better than the alternative, having 2 conftown and 2 scum players influencing the vote.

Basically in terms of alignment they're equivalent, but in terms of game influence the lovers are more valuable.

Again, no.

If successful elim, more town votes. If unsuccessful elim more scum votes. This is true regardless of pool. More people =/= better reads.

The answer, mechanically and subjectively, will always be “eliminate the scummiest person D1. If you didn’t hit scum, try again in the same pool.”

More town + less scum = more town influence over the vote

Another way of looking at it is that each of the lover pairs is a slot with a double vote. We'd rather eliminate the scum that has a double vote, and we'd also rather keep the town alive that has a double vote. (unless we're just agreeing that one there's confirmed town, they finalise any vote we make?)

[Klick]

I'm also on Team Fearless

[Klick]

VC

[Klick]

Please don't join another game that I'm in RM

gg Bambi, following along I was convinced you were town.