Third Thoughts Mafia [SCUM WIN]

Post Post #35 (isolation #1) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:01 pm

I think it's optimal to switch in this setup. Rough details below:

So

1/6 chance degenerates to Second Thoughts where not switching is always optimal14/39
2/6 chance 2T, 2M, 1J. We assume J picks anyone. 3/5 of the time, it's optimal for town to switch.
3/6 chance 3T, 1M, 1J. It's optimal to switch 2/5 of the time (as otherwise it's an instant loss.)

1/6 + 3/6 * 3/5 for no switching which is 1/6 + 9/30 or 5/30 + 9/30 ~ 14/30

Post Post #39 (isolation #2) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:02 pm

VOTE: Almost50

Post Post #44 (isolation #3) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:03 pm

Well my calculation might be a bit off since I'm not factoring in cases where switching has no effect... Again, it's a rough calculation

Post Post #47 (isolation #4) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:03 pm

Basically, we should always lim whoever is nominated by the hammeree.

Post Post #59 (isolation #5) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:06 pm

In post 52, Cook wrote:
In post 47, Ircher wrote:Basically, we should always lim whoever is nominated by the hammeree.
scum would never nominate scum as then that always causes a loss for scum. scum lim = town/jester target. jester lim = random. town lim = random.

Yes, but remember, 1%+ is always greater than a big fat zero.

Post Post #63 (isolation #6) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:07 pm

VOTE: Bingle

Post Post #69 (isolation #7) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:08 pm

I wish. It'd be so easy to win.

Post Post #76 (isolation #8) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:09 pm

Have I rolled scum today?

Post Post #80 (isolation #9) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:10 pm

Post Post #84 (isolation #10) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:11 pm

In post 79, Bingle wrote:
In post 76, Ircher wrote:Have I rolled scum today?
would you not argue monty halling if you were scum?

I probably would tbh

Post Post #89 (isolation #11) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:12 pm

lol what???

Post Post #93 (isolation #12) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:12 pm

we were doomed anyway...

Post Post #99 (isolation #13) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:14 pm

thanks for modding. Now I'm interested in what the next one will be...

(Also, don't forget about Speedrunner nominations. They're due June 4.)

Post Post #100 (isolation #14) » Fri May 28, 2021 4:15 pm

In post 99, Ircher wrote:thanks for modding. Now I'm interested in what the next one will be...

(Also, don't forget about Speedrunner nominations. They're due June 4.)

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