secret hitler round 3 [7/7] (fascists win!)

[The toad]

/in

[The toad]

if it gets delayed by much I probably won't be able to play though

[The toad]

woo

[The toad]

Not again

mena did you roll fascist? I want you to be honest

[The toad]

I guess I'll ja this because it'll speed things up and also I'm a little selfish

[The toad]

You’re expecting me to be enthusiastic about rolling lib @unwnd? Really?

Wouldn't you want to redeem yourself lol

I was thinking less this and more that he was placing a lot of emphasis on how he drew lib

[The toad]

1 fascist 1 liberal

[The toad]

I just got in gimme a hot second, jesus

Hypocrite

FUCK i switched from PC to mobile and didn't realize i wasn't on toad account

[The toad]

ok just erase that from your collective memory please

[The toad]

I thought you’d retired!!

i did but i came back to play Datisi's Secret Hitler Series

Anyway, jaing this

[The toad]

think i'll just nom mena

[The toad]

you should both play in my large.

Sorry I don't really have time for a long-term game rn because my mocks are coming up (and tbh even if it wasn't exam season not sure I could handle a large right away)

[The toad]

Nominate menalque

[The toad]

3f.

[The toad]

what's the probability of 3f here if it was FFL FFL already?

18%, which coincidentally is double of 9%

[The toad]

well that's what i get for 5/8 * 4/7 * 3/6 someone can correct me if my math is wrong

[The toad]

how much does the odds of 3f go up if one of Oka/nero lied and got 2l1f and discarded the l?

i think it becomes 36%

[The toad]

the cards got reshuffled, so I don't think it matters that the L has gone away if that's what you mean

[The toad]

pretty sure we were at 2F 3L after me. so there being more Ls makes sense

[The toad]

toad/unwnd is the axis of evil

I see you nero with your little american beard figure. I'm onto you.

[The toad]

I'd take mena over nero any day personally

[The toad]

dats can you confirm that shuffle 2 changes to 2L 10F?

the reshuffled policy deck has 10 F and 2 L, correct

WAIT SO WHAT WERE THE ODDS YESTERDAY OF FFF FFF THEN

EVEN LOWER THAN 9% ?!?!?!?

Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but the amount of cards in the deck is dependent on the policies passed. Since we had 4L and 1F passed it's 10/2 but I'm pretty sure it wasn't like that yesterday. I keep track of the cards so I think 9% was right

[The toad]

hope you feel better soon poker

[The toad]

ugh i guess i'll ja

[The toad]

chances of 3F were 54%

[The toad]

don't see any issue with oka check

[The toad]

it's now 2l 7f if truth being told, right?

yeah

[The toad]

what are the odds of another 3f now?

42%

[The toad]

is it Oka and Nero lmao

agree

[The toad]

will ja mena/bingle

[The toad]

JA (1/7)
unwnd

uh

LOL

[The toad]

why did unwnd ja with oka involved?

unwnd just ja's every government regardless of composition. bad look though I agree

[The toad]

great so there goes one of our liberals

[The toad]

for what it's worth topdecking gives us a 45% chance of winning i think lol

[The toad]

i mean i *think* it's more likely to be bingle over mena because there's a 42% chance of 3f and i think f!mena would go for that, but i think we just avoid that 1v1 idk

[The toad]

for what it's worth topdecking gives us a 45% chance of winning i think lol

wait really? I had 2f 1L

if the first one was true from poker then that was 3f

so it's like 5f 1l left? not sure how you're getting 45% lol

fuck you're right it's 33% i forgot to change 4/6 to 4/5

[The toad]

o wait fascs need 6 policies

this is a lot easier when you just have three numbers to adjust every round

[The toad]

yeah bingle is right it's 50/50

[The toad]

i don't think we should do this because random.org is a fascist-siding worm

[The toad]

after the 9% and rolling 3F today with a liberal favourable deck there is absolutely no way i am going to entrust our victory to that website

[The toad]

honestly i have absolutely no idea who to pick for chancellor LMAO

i think pokerface is most likely to be town but also probably hitler if they're fascist

[The toad]

toad, what do you think of Oka?

i think oka's probably a fascist

i can't believe i'm saying this but i guess i'd choose nero cain out of PoE lol

[The toad]

actually, talk me through why poker is lib and not fash lying ?

passed lib twice and oka feels a bit weird

in all fairness, being my strongest townread in this game is kind of a low bar

[The toad]

passed lib twice and oka feels a bit weird

what's the implication of him doing this with conf!fash?

wouldn't think it changes things personally idk

[The toad]

i mean tding is just a 50/50 chance. full disclosure, i think that's boring. if mena noms me i'll nom nero and we can vote on it, and if you guys still want to just end it by flipping the deck i guess i'll go along with it.

[The toad]

if we have to replace unwnd i will support the flip plan and we'll stick with his autoja thing LOL unless we have a replacement to plug in right away

[The toad]

i think that's a good idea actually but i can't imagine president menalque taking advice from bingle

[The toad]

toad are you betraying me this time

listen man there's a 9% chance of you being town. i can't just stick with you under those odds

[The toad]

ok you know what i change my mind flip deck plan ahoy

[The toad]

i mean unwnd's instruction to autoja does still apply right? we could flipdeck if we want i think?? idk

[The toad]

he was hitler

[The toad]

i think i'm going to look at the flipdeck plan from a new angle. after getting my towncred stuffed by a 3F in both of these last games, I think random.org owes me a victory so I'm confident we will win

[The toad]

i'm still on oka/bingle/unwnd but low confidence

[The toad]

am I the only one who read that nero post as a joke LOL

[The toad]

this is going to be the second game in a row where a joke costs libs the game

(well last round we would've lost anyway but that's not as funny)

[The toad]

think i'm more comfy with mena/toad than oka/toad rn

[The toad]

what'd i miss

welcome to hell. everyone is scummy

[The toad]

mena/bingle

hilarious if true

[The toad]

I just submitted an application to the Liberal Democrats

did you vote for Jo Swinson in 2019

[The toad]

sorry nero i believe you were joking but the mena/bingle thing was the last straw

[The toad]

I just submitted an application to the Liberal Democrats

did you vote for Jo Swinson in 2019

we're entering the swinzone bay-bee

Mena locklib, sorry Bingle

[The toad]

(irl my contempt for the Liberal Democrats knows almost no bounds)

Fascists out of the race. Only Liberals can win here!

[The toad]

i'm still on oka/bingle/unwnd but low confidence

@poker I answered here. Although I think maybe nero under unwnd slot now

[The toad]

sorry i probbaly should have quoted your post lol

[The toad]

Iirc correctly you're not old enough to vote toad, but when u r pls green or nobody (unless we get a socialist in labour again )

I know we were having Jokes but don't really wanna have a political discussion here

[The toad]

i'm still on oka/bingle/unwnd but low confidence

@poker I answered here. Although I think maybe nero under unwnd slot now

@Poker These are my reads

[The toad]

ok i understand my posts aren't always the best but you don't have to skip them all

[The toad]

omg ok so I can't nom mena or bingle right

i can't nom nero and i can't nom hopkirk and i can't nom oka and i can't nom Poker

Fuck.

[The toad]

Fuck it if nero is lib we lose

Nom hopkirk

[The toad]

From my pov that's a 1v1 unless we have a bigbrain play going on which is whatever

[The toad]

yes, toad. Nom the person in a mech 1v1 with the person who passed lib with a choice twice because the person in a mech 1v1 told you to.

i assure you i did not pick hopkirk because okapoka said to!

[The toad]

omg ok so I can't nom mena or bingle right

i can't nom nero and i can't nom hopkirk and i can't nom oka and i can't nom Poker

Fuck.

Yay I honestly not sure who you should pick given there being two 1v1s, nero claimed hitler, and hopkirk just replaced in for a lurker

me and toad are conf.town if 21v1s not involving us + a hitler so why's there an issue with Unwnd lurking?

I don't think anyone actually believes nero is confirmed hitler

[The toad]

omg ok so I can't nom mena or bingle right

i can't nom nero and i can't nom hopkirk and i can't nom oka and i can't nom Poker

Fuck.

Yay I honestly not sure who you should pick given there being two 1v1s, nero claimed hitler, and hopkirk just replaced in for a lurker

me and toad are conf.town if 21v1s not involving us + a hitler so why's there an issue with Unwnd lurking?

I don't think anyone actually believes nero is confirmed hitler

that would change things

yeah he made a joke saying "i'm hitler" in the middle of the game. i guess he could have thought the game was over technically but i don't see someone with tens of thousands of posts on the site actually forgetting that a replacement =/= game over

That being said he argued for a mena/bingle team so

[The toad]

3F so hop got 2F

that being said, i think deckflipping gives us 2/3 odds now at least

[The toad]

3F so hop got 2F

that being said, i think deckflipping gives us 2/3 odds now at least

what should be left in the deck, 1-2 libs depending on who's bad in one of the conflicts?

Should be that it's 1. we had 1 absorbed in a conflict, 2 at the start. I guess the first 3F COULD have had a L discarded? idk

[The toad]

I don't see why nero isn't the optimal exe here considering we do know hop isn't hitty and I have like no actual reads

[The toad]

yes i get it you guys would execute the person you're in a 1v1 with

[The toad]

Ok this isn't going anywhere whatever

Execute Nero

sorry nero

[The toad]

what's your call for the scumteam Toad?

i just do not know!

if you pushed me still oka/bingle/nero but honestly that could easily be 3/3 wrong. this game has messed with me

[The toad]

Nero regular F covering for hitler OR we've already lost?

yeah i think this is right except we could still get lucky with deckflips

[The toad]

i mean pres hoppy/ me chancellor is fine i think? we know it's pretty much always 2F 1L. well i guess poker could've buried a L earlier actually but that creates two conflicts with poker which i guess is still Okay Info

[The toad]

right, sorry.

[The toad]

to be fair i don't even think rand is bad play here especially if nero was town

it is sort of boring though

[The toad]

How TR were bingle/menal prior to the conflict? limited incentive for menal to start that conflict

they were both seen as townlean i think. they had incentive to start the conflict because we had a really dangerous amount of liberal policies iirc

[The toad]

oh it's bingle/toad/PF

if i'm F i push for chancellor whoever hitler is and it probably works, not hopkirk

[The toad]

i mean mena earlygame was towny in all fairness and i think he's still the most likely to be town, just by small amounts

[The toad]

i mean Nero lib matters in the sense that if nero is a lib we should probably deckflip it I guess

[The toad]

@Toad - what are your thoughts on Oka as Hitler/not hitler?

last game hitler was the openwolf, i think hitler placement among fascists is very difficult to read

[The toad]

i mean, if they play like poker they're more likely to be hitler, but what i mean is oka could easily be hitler here

[The toad]

i have eaten all the cherries in the house

good post

[The toad]

hoppy choose when you want to i'm not sure we have much to gain by dragging this out and i think like half the playerlist is tired

[The toad]

me/oka
if oka isn't hitler then Oka passing a L means we win, and Oka passing a F means that Oka is confirmed bad AND Poker is confirmed good.
i shoot oka
at that point we can alternate between me/toad/poker for the rest of the game

sure let's just end it

[The toad]

i don't understand how clearing oka is better play there? like in a normal game yes but secret hitler is 4v3

[The toad]

i take it okapoka wasn't hitler?

[The toad]

it's literally past midnight i am sorry

it's ok we love you

[The toad]

ok i am a tiny bit lost. what is going on.

[The toad]

i mean i know why you executed Pokey i just need to recalibrate

[The toad]

the deck was liberal/fas/fas so i discarded the lib because all 3 scum are alive and we have a majority

ah i see gg

[The toad]

i'm just glad i can go to sleep

thanks for modding dats, thanks for playing everyone, well done scum

[The toad]

ok mena I now forgive you for not trusting me last game

[The toad]

yeah nero really sorry about that whole murdering you thing. that was kind of a throw

[The toad]

honestly I should stop being president in secret Hitler I just keep on getting 3F every time. I should stick to chancelloring

[The toad]

why did I not trust my anurian friend

toad has never did me wrong

was also breaking the cardinal rule of "never trust bingle" which frankly meant I deserved it

if I had trusted you we would've won the game instantly so it's fine

[The toad]

Oh and then there was the Pokémon u pick where I think I voted you in lylo

Actually have we never not been TvT in a game together